Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
942 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS THE VALLEYS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES
EXTENDING FROM THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTY EWD INTO GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. MOST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE LAST NIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN ERN PIMA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OCCURRED NORTH OF TUCSON ACROSS PINAL COUNTY. LIQUID
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE CATALINA/RINCON
MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON...HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE HALF OF AN
INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE MOSTLY JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...ALTHOUGH MOUNT GRAHAM APPEARS TO HAVE RECEIVED A TRACE OF
SNOW TO PERHAPS ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL.
OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA VALID 16Z.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 5-15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
04/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.78 INCH. THE
COLUMN WAS SATURATED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND WAS VERY DRY ABOVE
650 MB. 04/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/SWRN CONUS WITH A 547 DM LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN NEVADA. A 110 KT JET MAX WAS ANALYZED AT 300 MB
OVER SE ARIZONA...AND MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THIS FORECAST AREA.
VARIOUS 04/12Z NWP MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF TWO DISTINCT
IMPULSES...THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX ALOFT...WILL MOVE WELL NEWD
BEYOND THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE ONGOING PRECIP IS NOT HANDLED VERY
WELL BY SEVERAL RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT ANY RATE...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY. THERE APPEARS
TO BE JUST ENOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD AND FILL NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SECOND IMPULSE ALOFT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL ARIZONA. 04/12Z NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
TO OCCUR TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM TUCSON NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE...AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO 6000-7000 FEET BY DAYBREAK THUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
AROUND 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMS BY THUR MORNING ACROSS THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT
GRAHAM SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST THUR WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN
PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-
15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TUE...THEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THUR.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 6K-10K FT MSL THRU TONIGHT...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND TODAY SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AT 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
EXPECT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /250 AM MST/...ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE EAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH A WEAK SECONDARY
TROUGH SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NOT MUCH...IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SO DRY WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEMS
PASSAGE...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF US.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR NOW I HAVE MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING
FALLING TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOSTLY
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GRAHAM
COUNTY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOW TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN
WHAT I AM CURRENTLY FORECASTING...SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SITUATION AND WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO STAY TUNED.
FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE
4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 7 TO 9 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
902 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN NV THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS
TRUCKEE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN RESPONSE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN NV. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR
JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF PYRAMID LAKE. THESE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY
FOOTHILLS AS THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTH. THE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY 08Z (MIDNIGHT)
AND THEN CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MAINLY WET ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST
VALLEY FLOORS, SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS.
HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS
SHOWING LIGHT SNOW AS FAR WEST AS KAAT, WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A SNOW
BAND MOVING ACROSS THE RENO-CARSON AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS WEDNESDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE EAST OF RENO. HOWEVER, A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF
INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER WEST AND WE WILL BE MONITORING
CLOSELY THIS EVENING AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADWAYS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. HOHMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS TWO QUICK MOVING STORMS PASS ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
ONE INTERESTING BIT OF INFO FOR TONIGHT...THE OVERNIGHT LOW AT THE
RENO AIRPORT IS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, IF IT
DOES NOT DO SO BEFORE MIDNIGHT IT WILL BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE
LATEST FREEZE IN A CALENDAR YEAR SET ON NOVEMBER 3RD 1992.
LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW, BUT WILL REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN NARROW
BANDS UP TO 20 MILES OR SO DOWNWIND SOUTH OF TAHOE, PYRAMID AND
WALKER.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TODAY, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD LOW DROPS INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON ROADS. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IS OVER PERSHING, CHURCHILL,
MINERAL AND LYON COUNTIES. BEHIND THE SYSTEM UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CARSON RANGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS DOUGLAS, LYON, WESTERN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY, MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SECOND TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY CREEP UP TO 5000-5500 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BRONG
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG TERM CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE: INCREASING POP TO
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, WINDS WERE RAISED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE INVERSIONS WILL KEEP MIXING RESTRICTED TO
UNDER ~8,500 FT ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AS THE VALLEY AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES/WARMS. THE INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO MEAN HIGHS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WILL BE SIMILAR (WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES) TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED
MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS, ALONG WITH INCREASED
WINDS OVER RIDGES AND IN VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50) BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
STILL IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN ENSEMBLE RUNS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE A TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED POP TO 30-50% FOR THE REGION MONDAY AND/OR
MONDAY NIGHT. I HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONG FRONT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS, THE MONDAY SYSTEM LOOKS
MUCH COLDER THAN THE LAST ONE AND HAS NO MAJOR MOISTURE FEED.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS DYNAMIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO EASTERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE (DUE TO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL OVER OCEAN) SO THE
SIERRA COULD SEE A DECENT HIGHER RATIO (COMPARED TO THE RECENT
STORM) SNOWFALL, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
ALSO, WITHOUT A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED, WESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE
MORE RAIN SHADOWING/WIND WITH PRECIPITATION WAITING FOR THE FRONTAL
FORCING TO SPILLOVER.
NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEYS
WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNYDER
AVIATION...
FAST-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 9 PM/05Z NEAR INTERSTATE 80, DROPPING SOUTH
TO BETWEEN LEE VINING AND KHTH BY 1-2AM (08Z-09Z). BRIEF IFR CIGS
AND IFR/LIFR VIS AND EXTENSIVE TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS, A DUSTING TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS KLOL
AND KNFL.
OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL AND A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS
WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND EVENTUALLY WALKER
LAKE. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF -SN/SN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
BETWEEN PYRAMID LAKE AND STAGECOACH/KSPZ, AS WELL AS SOUTH OF WALKER
LAKE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NARROW LAKE
EFFECT BANDS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW
CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACK SOUTHWARD.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP SOME.
SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST
OBS...TRENDS...AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES
OVER THE SW MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE SN PICK UP OVER THE NRN RANGES. TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...SPREADING TO
THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE EVEN OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT 40 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREADS.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS A BIT SINCE WE ARE
ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGHS...AND SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ALOFT WILL NOT OCCUR TIL LATER TODAY. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON
TRACK. LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR
OVER ERN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE HAS SET UP
EAST OF KLAA AND KSPD...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE KANSAS
BORDER LATER TODAY GIVEN VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THIS AREA. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
...WINDY AND MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS...
SNOW IS FLYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS PER WEB CAMS. RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOW PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE
THIS MORNING...WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING GOING ON AT THIS HOUR...WITH 3
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES NORTHEAST OF DURANGO...AND
14 STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES...BETWEEN CORTEZ AND DURANGO.
THAT`S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR 4 AM ON A NOVEMBER 4TH MORNING IN THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. SO...PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE WAY.
THIS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE STEEP SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...PROMISES A GOOD SNOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY 10-20 INCHES BY STORM`S END THURSDAY.
WOLF CREEK PASS SHOULD DO WELL. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CATCH
SOME TOO. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEM`S GOOD DYNAMIC
FORCING. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP SNOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AT
THAT TIME. TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MOSTLY RUN 4 TO 8
INCHES...BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE AND
NORTHERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW.
NOT A PARTICULARLY BIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS COULD SEE MAYBE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAINLY ABOVE 10
THOUSAND FEET. THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE WET MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
MAYBE 1 TO 3 ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE
PALMER DIVIDE COULD PERHAPS SEE A FEW WET FLAKES TONIGHT AS SHOWERS
SKIRT ACROSS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW...JUST SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW TO
BLOW...BUT STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE
WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING A FIRE IN DEAD FUELS
RAPIDLY SHOULD ONE GET GOING. SO...CAUTION MUST CONTINUE ON THIS
FRONT.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY HAVE NOCTURNAL
STUFF GOING ON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS I WRITE. AS THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE HEAT UP A
LITTLE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EAST AS WELL.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE SOMETHING COULD FIRE. SPC HAS THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BACA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO COOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TODAY AS CLOUDS...
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR BEGIN TO ADVANCE. HOWEVER...STILL
PRETTY WARM OVER THE EAST...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE IN
COMBINATION WITH PLENTY OF SUN. PROBABLY NO RECORDS TODAY...THOUGH
IT COULD BE CLOSE AT PLACES LIKE LAMAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THU MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS...AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE E
PLAINS THU MORNING...PROMPTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AS
WELL AS A 20 DEGREE COOLDOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER...AND THE ONGOING
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS THU MORN AND AFTN LOOKS GOOD.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHUTDOWN THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO A NW DIRECTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRI ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND GIVES THE FORECAST AREA A GLANCING BLOW...ALLOWING
ISOLATED PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS...BOTH
FRI AND SAT MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR
THE E PLAINS. SUN AND MON THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT EXPECTED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE E PLAINS. SAVE FOR THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRI OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON.
TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MON
INTO TUE...THOUGH THE EC DIGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
TIME...THIS TRACK WILL BRING ISOLATED PCPN TO THE CONTDVD TUE
MORN...THEN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AS PCPN SPREADS
TO THE SLV AND E MTS. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE STORM MOVING THROUGH CO TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING HEAVY SN OVR
THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN LUSI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE SCT BUT BRIEFLY COULD
AFFECT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT KALS. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 12-14Z
AT KCOS...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME VFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THU MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES
EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AREA-WIDE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW
BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
958 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST
OBS...TRENDS...AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES
OVER THE SW MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE SN PICK UP OVER THE NRN RANGES. TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...SPREADING TO
THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE EVEN OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT 40 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREADS.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS A BIT SINCE WE ARE
ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGHS...AND SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ALOFT WILL NOT OCCUR TIL LATER TODAY. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON
TRACK. LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR
OVER ERN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE HAS SET UP
EAST OF KLAA AND KSPD...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE KANSAS
BORDER LATER TODAY GIVEN VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THIS AREA. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
...WINDY AND MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS...
SNOW IS FLYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS PER WEB CAMS. RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOW PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE
THIS MORNING...WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING GOING ON AT THIS HOUR...WITH 3
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES NORTHEAST OF DURANGO...AND
14 STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES...BETWEEN CORTEZ AND DURANGO.
THAT`S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR 4 AM ON A NOVEMBER 4TH MORNING IN THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. SO...PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE WAY.
THIS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE STEEP SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...PROMISES A GOOD SNOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY 10-20 INCHES BY STORM`S END THURSDAY.
WOLF CREEK PASS SHOULD DO WELL. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CATCH
SOME TOO. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEM`S GOOD DYNAMIC
FORCING. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP SNOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AT
THAT TIME. TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MOSTLY RUN 4 TO 8
INCHES...BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE AND
NORTHERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW.
NOT A PARTICULARLY BIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS COULD SEE MAYBE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAINLY ABOVE 10
THOUSAND FEET. THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE WET MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
MAYBE 1 TO 3 ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE
PALMER DIVIDE COULD PERHAPS SEE A FEW WET FLAKES TONIGHT AS SHOWERS
SKIRT ACROSS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW...JUST SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW TO
BLOW...BUT STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE
WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING A FIRE IN DEAD FUELS
RAPIDLY SHOULD ONE GET GOING. SO...CAUTION MUST CONTINUE ON THIS
FRONT.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY HAVE NOCTURNAL
STUFF GOING ON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS I WRITE. AS THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE HEAT UP A
LITTLE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EAST AS WELL.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE SOMETHING COULD FIRE. SPC HAS THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BACA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO COOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TODAY AS CLOUDS...
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR BEGIN TO ADVANCE. HOWEVER...STILL
PRETTY WARM OVER THE EAST...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE IN
COMBINATION WITH PLENTY OF SUN. PROBABLY NO RECORDS TODAY...THOUGH
IT COULD BE CLOSE AT PLACES LIKE LAMAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THU MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS...AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE E
PLAINS THU MORNING...PROMPTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AS
WELL AS A 20 DEGREE COOLDOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER...AND THE ONGOING
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS THU MORN AND AFTN LOOKS GOOD.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHUTDOWN THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO A NW DIRECTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRI ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND GIVES THE FORECAST AREA A GLANCING BLOW...ALLOWING
ISOLATED PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS...BOTH
FRI AND SAT MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR
THE E PLAINS. SUN AND MON THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT EXPECTED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE E PLAINS. SAVE FOR THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRI OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON.
TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MON
INTO TUE...THOUGH THE EC DIGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
TIME...THIS TRACK WILL BRING ISOLATED PCPN TO THE CONTDVD TUE
MORN...THEN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AS PCPN SPREADS
TO THE SLV AND E MTS. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
MAJOR WINTER STORM ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE...SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY SPOTTY
EARLY...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS...LARGELY VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCAL
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF SPELL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR THE TAF SITES...KALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
CARRY VCSH THERE FOR NOW STARTING 18Z. FOR KCOS AND KPUB...LESS
LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS BUT STILL A SMALL CHANCE...THOUGH TOO SMALL TO
CARRY IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF SHOWERS END UP MOVING ACROSS
THESE SITES...COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
943 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 943 PM EST...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z
KALY SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH
AN 850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582
DM. ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN
KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5
TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS
WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT
COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.
KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE ONSET OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO FORCING REMAINING WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS
TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z-06Z...WITH KPOU/KPSF EXPECTED
TO BE THE FIRST SITES TO SEE FOG/STRATUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
FOG/STRATUS MAY START TO BREAK UP IN THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING FOR KPOU/KPSF.
MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THE AFTN HOURS WITH BKN CIGS AT 4-9
KFT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH
WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO SCT NATURE OF THE
PRECIP. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG.
SAT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
(0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
811 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. LONGWAVE AND DEEP
TROUGHING NOW COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST...TO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WEATHER IS NOT IN OUR
FORECAST ANYTIME SOON. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES INTO A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO NEW ENGLAND. OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED
UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS PROTECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. EVENTUALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL FULLY BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO DIP DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE WEEKEND GETS HERE...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE MORE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN
QUIET WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF FOG...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY EARLY FOG BURNS OFF AND
GIVES WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 80S FOR THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO ONCE AGAIN SEE
A FEW SPOTS TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY THAT
FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS STRETCH FOR LOCATIONS TO
REACH 90...AND BASED ON CLIMO...MAY VERY WELL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS SEASON.
FORECAST WILL KEEP A 20% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FROM THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND THOSE THAT
DO WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY WILL BE EXPECTING NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR KLAL
AND KPGD...BUT OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND AND A DEVELOPING SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELDS. WILL
SEE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER FOR KPGD/KRSW/KFMY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND THEN RETREATS EASTWARD DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 89 74 86 / 0 10 10 40
FMY 72 90 73 88 / 0 20 20 50
GIF 71 89 71 87 / 0 20 10 50
SRQ 72 89 73 86 / 0 10 20 30
BKV 69 90 69 88 / 0 10 10 30
SPG 74 88 74 86 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY BUT ALSO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS REPOSITIONED
FARTHER NORTH...WHICH HAS CAUSED EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO INCREASE A
TAD. THIS HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO THE COAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE MORNING
CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUNDINGS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WAS STILL PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE SO
THE MOIST LAYER WAS STILL NOT THAT DEEP. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE PRESENT MID LEVEL TEMPS
(MINUS 5-6 DEGREES AT 500 MB).
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND
QUICKER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE PROSPECT FOR RECORD HIGHS THOUGH MELBOURNE
AND VERO BEACH WILL GET CLOSE (SEE BELOW). THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RECORD WARM LOWS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EARLY MORNING INLAND STRATUS HAD RECENTLY BROKE UP...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT SEVERAL TERMINALS AS DAYTIME HEATING
GENERATES A RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MARCHING INLAND WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR-IFR MAINLY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST
LOW LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP A COASTAL SHOWER CHANCE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH OF THE WATERS. A
MORE PREDOMINANT WIND WAVE WILL RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS
TO REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHTER ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTH
WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET TODAY WITH UP
TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
LOC DATE HI-MAX HI-MIN
DAB 4-NOV 88 2004 73 1934
MCO 4-NOV 90 1934 73 2003
MLB 4-NOV 87 1948 76 2003
VRB 4-NOV 87 2002 76 1992
DAB 5-NOV 88 2003 75 2003
MCO 5-NOV 91 1934 72 2003
MLB 5-NOV 91 1992 75 2003
VRB 5-NOV 92 1992 74 2003
DAB 6-NOV 88 1948 73 1975
MCO 6-NOV 89 1959 73 1972
MLB 6-NOV 88 2002 75 1971
VRB 6-NOV 92 2002 73 2003
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
H5 PATTERN SHOW LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS FALLEN
HEIGHTS AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN CHANGES FOR THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST...SEE BELOW FOR THOSE DISCUSSIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA THAT HAS
HELPED TO WEAKEN THE PERSISTENT WEDGE PATTERN THAT HAS ENVELOPED
THE CWA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND FOG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THE CLOUD DECK IS REDEVELOPING AND LOWERING ONCE AGAIN WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WE CAN EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG SOME LOCALLY DENSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT SHOWS NO POPS FROM THE GFS BUT NAM DOES KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF TRACE TO .01
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO WILL FAVOR THE GFS AND KEEPS POPS OUT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN LEVEL RIDGE WILL LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
THEN APPROACHING THE UPSTATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF POPS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATE
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS REACHING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...LEANING
TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...IS LOOKS LIKE AN IN-SITU
WEDGE DEVELOPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE INDICATED HIGHER POPS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO LOWER...AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. COULD SEE LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KDNL...KAGS AND
KOGB. CONFIDENCE ON LIFR IS MODERATE TO HIGH AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO IFR AFT 12Z/06 MOST TERMINALS AND VFR AFTER 15Z/06
ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LATE SAT AND SUN...WITH ANOTHER WEDGE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW AREA RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN WHERE MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES AND FOR LAKE WATEREE. A
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT COLUMBIA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
913 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front is making steady progress toward western IL, and
should reach near the IL river valley by 07z. Lightning in precip along
the cold front has been steadily diminishing as the evening has
progressed. While thunder may be quite limited during FROPA, we
could still see some updrafts tap into the 60-70kt of 0-6km wind
shear, creating some minor tree damage at times. Will monitor any
fast moving storm segments for short term wind damage concerns.
The speed of the front should push precip into Indiana by sunrise
on Friday. Made some minor adjustments to the PoP grids to match
current timing trends, but little change occurred to the point and
click/worded forecast. Updated info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of
showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just
northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into
north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms
are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some
of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into
central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main
convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over
east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should
fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting
this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening
and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the
convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots).
Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms
from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off
in the wake of the convective line.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning
which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region
for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively
cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve
experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s
will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.
When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly
winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and
Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will
eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of
pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on
timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the
system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system
with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep
pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS
bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the
models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur.
However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into
better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known;
which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just
above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid
50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the
passage of a fast moving cold front. Thunder has been lacking with
all rain so far this afternoon. A narrow axis of instability will
be accompanying the front itself, but MUCAPE values will only
reach around 200 J/kg. Will continue with VCTS and not a tempo
for thunder yet. HRRR and RAP updates show a weakening trend in
convective updrafts as the front approaches. Several downdrafts
with collapsing storm towers could produce some brief strong
gusts.
IFR clouds are in place for PIA, BMI, and SPI, with VFR clouds
for DEC and CMI. Overall trend looks to be MVFR developing as the
main line/front approaches. Late tonight, skies should rapidly
clear before sunrise.
The pressure gradient will keep gusty winds through frontal
passage -- mainly from 20 to 30 knots -- some higher gusts may
accompany the storms due to the strong dynamics with the system.
Existing TAF`s had this in hand and only required some minor
timing adjustments.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of
showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just
northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into
north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms
are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some
of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into
central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main
convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over
east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should
fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting
this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening
and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the
convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots).
Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms
from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off
in the wake of the convective line.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning
which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region
for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively
cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve
experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s
will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.
When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly
winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and
Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will
eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of
pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on
timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the
system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system
with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep
pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS
bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the
models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur.
However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into
better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known;
which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just
above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid
50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the
passage of a fast moving cold front. Thunder has been lacking with
all rain so far this afternoon. A narrow axis of instability will
be accompanying the front itself, but MUCAPE values will only
reach around 200 J/kg. Will continue with VCTS and not a tempo
for thunder yet. HRRR and RAP updates show a weakening trend in
convective updrafts as the front approaches. Several downdrafts
with collapsing storm towers could produce some brief strong
gusts.
IFR clouds are in place for PIA, BMI, and SPI, with VFR clouds
for DEC and CMI. Overall trend looks to be MVFR developing as the
main line/front approaches. Late tonight, skies should rapidly
clear before sunrise.
The pressure gradient will keep gusty winds through frontal
passage -- mainly from 20 to 30 knots -- some higher gusts may
accompany the storms due to the strong dynamics with the system.
Existing TAF`s had this in hand and only required some minor
timing adjustments.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Broad southwesterly flow continues to bring unseasonably
warm/moist air into the region today. As has been the case for the
past couple of days, widespread dense fog once again developed
last night and persisted into the morning hours. 16z/10 am obs
showed most of the fog had dissipated, with some patchy 2-4 mile
visbys still noted between the Illinois River and I-55. Based on
trends and most recent HRRR forecast, expect fog to completely
dissipate over the next hour. The primary short-term forecast challenge
for the remainder of the day will be amount of cloud cover and its
impact on afternoon high temps. While the fog/low clouds will fade
away, additional cloud cover at around 3,000-4,000ft is currently
spreading northward from southern Illinois/Missouri. Think this
will overspread much of the area, but partially dissipate during
peak heating. End result will be partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s to around
70, but will rise into the middle 70s near the Indiana border
where ample sunshine has already occurred this morning. Forecast
update to remove Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Atlantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Low clouds/fog continue to dissipate late this morning...however
a couple patches of IFR conditions will persist at KPIA and KSPI
through 19z. Meanwhile...an area of 3000-4000 foot ceilings
currently across southwest Illinois will lift northward and
overspread the central Illinois terminals between 19z and 22z. RAP
forecast soundings show this moisture quite well and indicate it
will stick around through the night. Main aviation forecast
question will be how much fog will re-develop tonight. With
airmass unchanged and a moist low-level flow continuing, am
expecting patchy fog once again...however am not anticipating
dense fog. With low clouds in place and slightly stronger
southerly winds in advance of an approaching cold front, think
mixing will prevent the widespread low visbys noted the past few
nights. Instead, will only feature 3-4SM visbys between 03z and
16z. After that, winds will become southwesterly and increase to
between 10 and 15kt by late Thursday morning, with any showers
holding off until later in the day.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Broad southwesterly flow continues to bring unseasonably
warm/moist air into the region today. As has been the case for the
past couple of days, widespread dense fog once again developed
last night and persisted into the morning hours. 16z/10 am obs
showed most of the fog had dissipated, with some patchy 2-4 mile
visbys still noted between the Illinois River and I-55. Based on
trends and most recent HRRR forecast, expect fog to completely
dissipate over the next hour. The primary short-term forecast challenge
for the remainder of the day will be amount of cloud cover and its
impact on afternoon high temps. While the fog/low clouds will fade
away, additional cloud cover at around 3,000-4,000ft is currently
spreading northward from southern Illinois/Missouri. Think this
will overspread much of the area, but partially dissipate during
peak heating. End result will be partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s to around
70, but will rise into the middle 70s near the Indiana border
where ample sunshine has already occurred this morning. Forecast
update to remove Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Areas of VLIFR vsbys are expected thru about 15z with IFR cigs
possible into the early afternoon hours. Lower vsbys much more
variable across the area than what we saw yesterday at this
time. However, short term models continue to suggest the threat
will continue over the area, especially in locations that were
currently and have been down to less than 1 mile. The threat
for the low vsbys will gradually end by 15 or 16z with more of
a stratus layer prevailing into the afternoon hours with only
a gradual increase in cig bases expected. If we can scatter
out for a time later this afternoon, there will be another
threat for some patchy dense (IFR or lower conditions) tonight.
Southerly winds are expected again today and tonight at around
10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Areas of VLIFR vsbys are expected thru about 15z with IFR cigs
possible into the early afternoon hours. Lower vsbys much more
variable across the area than what we saw yesterday at this
time. However, short term models continue to suggest the threat
will continue over the area, especially in locations that were
currently and have been down to less than 1 mile. The threat
for the low vsbys will gradually end by 15 or 16z with more of
a stratus layer prevailing into the afternoon hours with only
a gradual increase in cig bases expected. If we can scatter
out for a time later this afternoon, there will be another
threat for some patchy dense (IFR or lower conditions) tonight.
Southerly winds are expected again today and tonight at around
10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog and very low stratus remain the primary concern
overnight. HRRR output continues to expanded coverage of dense fog
along and west of I-57. Dense fog potential appears lower along
the Indiana border, but CMI and DEC are already 1/4SM FG and
should remain VLIFR the rest of the night. Dense fog formation has
slowed down in it`s westward expansion, as the stratus deck
appears to preventing ideal radiational fog conditions. However,
there will be an advection fog component under southerly winds, so
dense fog should eventually form at every TAF location. The fog
will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as late as
17z.
Once the fog clears, the 00z/04 NAM is showing stratus could hold
on through the afternoon east of I-55. GFS gets rid of the stratus
eventually by evening at all TAF sites. Will keep some clearing at
PIA and SPI in the west, under the dry push from the SW across
western IL. Stratus re-development is indicated in the NAM
soundings, with a layer of residual moisture around 1.5-2.5K ft.
Little overall change in airmass through tomorrow evening should
set the stage for fog developing again by late evening.
Winds will generally remain south in the 5-11kt range over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
713 PM CST
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS
VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE
ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR
INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.
STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO
REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY
HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY
LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE
INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS
IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER
TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG
WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND
EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT
WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
254 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN
PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS
PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW
TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE
ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT
WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING
AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED
SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
60S OR EVEN COOLER.
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
RC/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
FOG IS ACTUALLY RETREATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WHILE IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. MDW APPEARS TO BE RIGHT NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT AND HAS RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT AND IMPROVED TO
VFR. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WOULD ANTICIPATE THE LOW CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD MDW ONCE AGAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z...
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF RFD EAST TO PWK AND SOUTH THROUGH
IKK PER 05Z OB/SATELLITE. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG WILL INCH EAST OVER
ORD/MDW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SLOW/MINOR IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER MODELS
TYPICALLY BRING CONDITIONS UP TOO FAST. ASSUMING WE DO MIX
OUT/LIFT TO VFR FOR A WHILE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER SO SEE LITTLE REASON WHY WE WOULDNT SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN OUT
OF 180-220 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AND TIMING AT
ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW.
* MEDIUM IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
249 AM CST
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SWINGING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT...THEN TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN FOG BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LAKE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog has already started forming from Champaign and Rantoul
to Decatur, east of the stratus cloud area that is drifting
westward. HRRR and RAP model output has been consistent in
indicating another night of widespread dense fog for a majority of
our forecast area /FA/. The short term models have generally
shown lower fog potential along the Indiana border. However, we
have decided to issue a dense fog advisory for our entire FA from
9 pm to 10 am. Some clearing of the fog will develop from south
to north after 9 am as southerly winds increase and low-mid clouds
begin to arrive from the south. Low temps tonight will likely
settle out only a few degrees below current readings, in the low
to mid 50s. Highs tomorrow may need to be trimmed a couple degrees
to account for the delayed morning heating under fog and low
clouds. Some areas may even see stratus linger well into the
afternoon, which would limit highs even further.
Weather and sky grid updates are already available. Updated temps,
dewpoints, winds will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under
the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over
Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and
persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up
east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around
where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models
depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night,
and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned
that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model
is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the
patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development
with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather
quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57
has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has
been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to
persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and
associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level
moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns
off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high
temperatures around 70 degrees.
Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a
strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This
system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the
California coast, which will eject toward the area starting
Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave
Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect
widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move
through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave
should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak
lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity
minimal.
The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with
near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high
pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western
U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have
temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week.
However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also
support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period
and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog and very low stratus remain the primary concern
overnight. HRRR output continues to expanded coverage of dense fog
along and west of I-57. Dense fog potential appears lower along
the Indiana border, but CMI and DEC are already 1/4SM FG and
should remain VLIFR the rest of the night. Dense fog formation has
slowed down in it`s westward expansion, as the stratus deck
appears to preventing ideal radiational fog conditions. However,
there will be an advection fog component under southerly winds, so
dense fog should eventually form at every TAF location. The fog
will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as late as
17z.
Once the fog clears, the 00z/04 NAM is showing stratus could hold
on through the afternoon east of I-55. GFS gets rid of the stratus
eventually by evening at all TAF sites. Will keep some clearing at
PIA and SPI in the west, under the dry push from the SW across
western IL. Stratus re-development is indicated in the NAM
soundings, with a layer of residual moisture around 1.5-2.5K ft.
Little overall change in airmass through tomorrow evening should
set the stage for fog developing again by late evening.
Winds will generally remain south in the 5-11kt range over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1129 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
713 PM CST
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS
VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE
ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR
INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.
STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO
REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY
HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY
LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE
INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS
IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER
TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG
WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND
EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT
WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
254 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN
PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS
PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW
TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE
ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT
WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING
AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED
SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
60S OR EVEN COOLER.
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
RC/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF RFD EAST TO PWK AND SOUTH THROUGH
IKK PER 05Z OB/SATELLITE. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG WILL INCH EAST
OVER ORD/MDW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SLOW/MINOR IMPROVEMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER MODELS
TYPICALLY BRING CONDITIONS UP TOO FAST. ASSUMING WE DO MIX
OUT/LIFT TO VFR FOR A WHILE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER SO SEE LITTLE REASON WHY WE WOULDNT SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN OUT
OF 180-220 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AND TIMING AT
ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW.
* MEDIUM IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SPEEDS STEADILY INCREASING. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG OVER
THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG
EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WHATEVER FOG DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT
SHOULD ERODE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE...INITIALLY SOUTHERLY BUT
THEN TURNING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS TIME BUT WITH THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER
SPEEDS CONTINUING...COULD SEE FORECASTED HIGHER WINDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
833 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING FOR ALL AREAS...AND
TO WORK IN LATEST TEMP TRENDS FROM THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
TRENDED TO MORE LIGHTER...WHICH IS GOING TO AMPLIFY THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS...HAVE LEFT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTACT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA
BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH
TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY
5-10F.
FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM
ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS
ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR
ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND
LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A
LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED
LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN
BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECOMING WNW BY
03Z...THEN VEERING TO THE NNW BY 17Z FRIDAY AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
511 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD...THE
REGION IS CONTINUING TO SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS
CLOUD COVER FROM THE TAIL-END OF YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM IS FINALLY
LEAVING THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS THE TRI STATE REGION WILL BE
AFFORDED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ENSUE TO DROP TEMPS CWA-WIDE.
AS OF 00Z...TEMPS ARE RANGING AROUND 40F WEST TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S TO THE EAST. THE TREND DOWNWARD WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH
FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S LOOKING GOOD AT THIS
TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE. UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST PARAMETERS BASED
ON LATEST OBS TREND OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS
FOR NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA
BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH
TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY
5-10F.
FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM
ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS
ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR
ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND
LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A
LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED
LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN
BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECOMING WNW BY
03Z...THEN VEERING TO THE NNW BY 17Z FRIDAY AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH
TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY
5-10F.
FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM
ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS
ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR
ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND
LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A
LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED
LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN
BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECOMING WNW BY
03Z...THEN VEERING TO THE NNW BY 17Z FRIDAY AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
...Updated for Aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
A narrow but expanding band of showers was developing across the far
southwest counties this afternoon, as far east as Liberal and
Ulysses. This shower band is associated with an advancing upper cold
trough just behind a surface 850 mb frontal boundary about top clear
the CWA line in the southwest. Clouds have continued to expand
during the afternoon elsewhere across the the area behind the
boundary, leaving the south central Kansas counties in locations
line Pratt Medicine Lodge and Coldwater sunny all afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The HRRR has continued to expand the pops eastward through the
entire southern half of the forecast through the late afternoon as
the wave translates across the area. A narrow corridor may pick up
on the order of one tenth of an inch of rain in while most of the
rest of the area will see scattered brief showers with little
accumulation. As the high pressure expands across the area tonight,
winds will gradually subside to light and northerly. The next couple
of day will lead to overall cooler temperatures. Higher dewpoint
immediately behind the boundary lends itself to some uncertainty in
just how cool temperatures may fall in the eastern portion of the
area, which will limit the eastward extent of tonight`s freeze
warning. Temperatures will warm back toward the 60 degree mark with
light winds on Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Colder air is likely across the entire forecast area by early
Saturday morning as the pacific surface high pressure expands across
the Central Plains this weekend. This will be the coldest morning of
the forecast period with the western counties very likely falling
into the upper 20s in the western counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Light showers will exit the area with an upper trough early this
evening. Northwest winds around 12kt will become light around 5kt
from the west to southwest with clearing skies. VFR conditions
will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 60 32 54 / 40 10 10 0
GCK 32 59 29 54 / 30 20 20 0
EHA 30 58 29 53 / 30 10 10 0
LBL 34 61 30 55 / 40 10 10 0
HYS 34 59 30 54 / 10 10 20 0
P28 39 62 35 57 / 30 0 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for
KSZ045-046-064-065-077>080-086>088.
Freeze Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 8 AM CST
/7 AM MST/ Friday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1038 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT COOLER READINGS IN THE FAR EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THEY HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S. STILL EXPECTING
THESE TMEPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN RISE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG WITH WINDS. TIMING OF RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD
WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES RIGHT AROUND
DAWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE PRECIPITAITON CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT CURVES TO REFLECT CURRENT VALUES. THIS
MEANT A SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WITH RIDGES STAYING MILDER. ALL IN ALL FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. WILL SEND GRIDS/ZFP WITH UPDATED CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL HELP TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD KY
TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS NE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STRUNG OUT MORE PARALLEL TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW DOWN. IT WILL
SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD EASILY GENERATE SHOWERS. BECAUSE OF THE
SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ONCE IT PASSES...POST FRONTAL PRECIP
WILL LINGER OVER SE KY...POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
BRISK...AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SET UP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SW US. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE
WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AS IT
PUSHES EWD AND WEAKENS. MODELS NOW SHOW A LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM AND LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. BEYOND MONDAY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT REGARDING THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WHICH
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT
SYSTEM THROUGH KY NEXT THURSDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID...STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND BUT NUDGED TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION KEEPING AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
AT THE SFC...SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LINGERING ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DROPS SE
OF THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND IN THE AREA
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY...SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ON SUNDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BUT WON/T LAST LONG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...RAIN RETURNS BY THE AFTERNOON
AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS
QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. THE BIG DOWNTURN IN CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE
DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING A CHANGE
TO MVFR FROM 12-18Z. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONGER SHOWER COULD CONTAIN SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
930 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Forecast is unfolding largely as expected tonight. Isentropic
ascent on the nose of a 50-60 knot low-level jet has led to showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms breaking out across portions
southern IL and southern IN. This activity should mainly affect
southern IN and far northern KY over the next few hours. Attention
will then turn toward the southwest as a loosely-organized QLCS has
broken out across portions of AR/OK/TX. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
data shows the edge of the surface-based instability only extends up
to southwestern AR, with all activity north of that likely being
elevated. This jives well with the latest NWS warnings, as the only
warning currently in effect is over southeastern OK.
Expect this QLCS to continue to slowly weaken over the next couple
hours as it outruns instability. Forecast uncertainty decreases a
bit towards 09/10Z Friday morning as the latest hi-res guidance
suggests what is left of the QLCS may run into some better surface-
based instability being advected up from portions of the Southeast.
However, as this occurs the better synoptic forcing will be pushing
well to the north of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, while some slight
strengthening of the QLCS may occur across portions of TN and south-
central KY as it intersects this better moisture/instability axis
(as latest HRRR runs suggest), think storms will continue to remain
below severe limits. Main threat with any strong storm will
continue to be winds in excess of 40mph. Rest of the forecast looks
on track.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Broad trough with embedded vortmaxes now crossing the Plains states.
A cold front runs ahead of this trough, from a surface low over
Minnesota south to the Red River Valley. These features will shift
east northeastward in the short term, with the cold front forecast
to cross our region Friday morning, perhaps lingering a little in
our southeast into early Friday afternoon.
We are seeing light rains well out ahead of the front, as a couple
of vortmaxes are moving quickly through the southwesterly flow aloft
over us. These showers may clip our northwest forecast area this
afternoon and evening. Coverage should ramp up later in the night,
as a low level jet gets cranking. Latest guidance has 850 mb winds
peaking over the northern half of the region, at 50-60 knots. This
flow could allow for some organization of cells into a line. Some
high-res guidance is also indicative of stronger elements within
that line, so we will have to watch for the potential to mix these
winds aloft down overnight and early Friday morning.
Expect weakening of the line as the low-level jet shifts east of the
region during the morning. However the presence of the front in our
east along with some heating may allow for a new line to form in our
far southeast forecast area in the afternoon. Additional upper
disturbances also may linger the rain chances into the night and
even Saturday morning across south central KY...until a secondary
trough behind the one coming through Friday can push through the
Midwest.
We should continue to have above normal temperatures tonight, but
that trend will end the cold front passage. Temps will fall mid
afternoon Friday, behind northwesterly winds. Then lows Saturday
moring should be closer to normal, though still a little above under
that cloud cover in our south.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Saturday will be dry for most of the region, though have to hang on
to some lingering pops across south central KY until that above-
mentioned trough can clear us. High pressure building in across the
Midwest should give us a cold morning Sunday, with lows around
freezing in our cold spots. Highs Sunday should only get to the 50s.
Monday continues to look wetter as models converge on a solution of
an upper low moving northeast across the Midwest and dragging up
some moisture from the Gulf. Still think the best shot for precip is
over our south, where have gone with high-end chance pops. Have
brought the slight chance line up to the Ohio River. Cloud cover
should keep temperatures cooler that day.
Then Tuesday and Wednesday we should warm to around normal under
drier conditions. Thursday is still a question mark, as the Euro is
slower with an upper level system moving out of the western U.S. The
GFS marches a line of precip through here Wed. night and Thursday.
Given uncertainty in this time frame, did not lean too far away from
SuperBlend guidance.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 607 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
VFR conditions will persist this evening, before a strong storm
system takes aim on the Ohio Valley overnight into Friday. Moisture
being drawn up ahead of this system will bring lower cigs overnight
along with a few showers which will likely affect KSDF late this
evening. Will not hit the cigs as hard as some of the guidance
suggests as the low-levels should remain mixed enough to keep cigs
in the low-end MVFR range. Late tonight into Friday morning, more
widespread showers along with a few thunderstorms will affect mainly
KBWG and KSDF as a cold front and strong low-level jet approach the
region. Debated adding LLWS into the KSDF forecast, but think
surface gusts will stay up enough to leave out of the forecast for
now. The main threat for LLWS would be in the 7-12Z timeframe.
The surface front will push through all sites through the day on
Friday, turning winds more to the west/northwest. With its passage,
precip will come to an end and cigs will rise to VFR.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW VFR TO OCNL HIGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST AN OCCASIONAL PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS
HERE AND THERE. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS JUST BEGUN TO ERODE FROM THE
SW...WITH KTYR AND KLFK ABOUT TO GO SCT TO SKC. DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WHERE THIS OCCURS AS TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE DEWPOINTS. CLOUDS TO LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN WHERE SKIES
BECMG SKC FOR TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS
EAST...EXCEPT FOR KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS...WHICH MAY LOCK IN TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WED NIGHT./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY EXPANDING THE AREA OF PATCHY
FOG AND ADDED PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME TEXAS WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
TREND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY SOLID MVFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 04/06Z
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...AT MAINLY KTXK...KELD...AND
KMLU TERMINALS. HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTN ON WED...WITH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NE TX...WHERE S-SE BREEZES INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS./VII/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE
UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT
10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH
MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL
DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS
NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW
CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES
IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY
THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40
MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80
TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60
ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70
GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50
LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1014 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY EXPANDING THE AREA OF PATCHY
FOG AND ADDED PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME TEXAS WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
TREND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY SOLID MVFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 04/06Z
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...AT MAINLY KTXK...KELD...AND
KMLU TERMINALS. HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTN ON WED...WITH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NE TX...WHERE S-SE BREEZES INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS./VII/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE
UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT
10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH
MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL
DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS
NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW
CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES
IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY
THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40
MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80
TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60
ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70
GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50
LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
231 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR
IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY
RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING
SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF
CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU
CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS
WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE
PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK
UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG
AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR
NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND
COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S
DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO
OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE
SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND
OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG
LATER THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1230 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DID MANAGE TO ALLOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO START TO RISE IN OHIO. THIS WAS RATHER WELL
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR RUN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE STATISTICAL
PRODUCTS FAIL TO ADEQUATELY CAPTURE IT. AS A RESULT...DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. LOWS WERE SUMMARILY REDUCED
FOR MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. LIKEWISE...WITH A BIT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN
OHIO.
OTHERWISE...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN AS DEWPOINTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASING MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN BACK INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...EVEN WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS RIDGE WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY BE SEEN IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER
OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
CL
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS PROGGED WITH A FRIDAY COLD
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL
ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS
FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40
MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER
TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL
AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN
PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I
KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION
IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A
STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD
OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW
WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND THEN GO WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY
12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM
IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR
PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE
INFLUENCE.
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT
SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE.
WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST
RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD
WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD
ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH
PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN
ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS
THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER
ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE
THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY
DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY
12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM
IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR
PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE
INFLUENCE.
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT
SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE.
WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST
RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD
WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD
ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THRU TNGT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S
WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LO
PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROF
TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LO PRES CENTER
DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW
WIND. MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL AT LEAST
REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. OPTED TO ISSUE A
GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W LAKE DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS ON FRI. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE CENTER ON POPS
ON THU/FRI ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF. GUSTY NW
WINDS ON THE SW FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LO PRES MAY
THEN BRING IN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR TO GENERATE SOME LK EFFECT PCPN
LATER FRI AND SAT BEFORE TRAILING HI PRES BRINGS DRIER WX TO END THE
WEEKEND.
THU INTO FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS THERE WL BE TWO SHRTWVS
OF INTEREST LIFTING NE OUT OF THE WRN TROF DURING THIS TIME. SINCE
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT DISTURBANCES...A DEEPER LO PRES WL NOT DVLP
UNTIL THESE SHRTWVS BEGIN TO PHASE ON FRI IN ONTARIO. WAVE OF LO
PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO RIDE NE ALONG
STNRY FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN ON THU...WITH BULK OF
ACCOMPANYING PCPN PASSING TO THE W OF UPR MI UNDER SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC. WL THUS CARRY HIER CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W. TEMPTED TO
KEEP THE E HALF COMPLETELY DRY ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES WITH SHALLOW MSTR ADVECTED TO THE N IN STEADY SSW
FLOW WARRANTS SOME SCHC POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS A MENTION OF
SOME FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG OVER THE ERN CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI.
DESPITE PLENTY OF LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED AS HI AS 12-14C. A BETTER CHC
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WL ARRIVE ON THU NGT IN ADVANCE OF SECOND
DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE SW. MOST OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THIS
AREA OF FORCING ALMOST COMPLETELY MISSING THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME SE. WL TEND TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z GFS/CNDN/ECMWF
AND PAINT THE HIER LIKELY/CATEGORICL POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
UNDER THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVG/CORE OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV/AXIS OF PWAT UP TO 1.25
INCHES. WITH AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN AS WELL ACCOMPANYING SHIFTING SFC
FNT ACRS THE AREA...SUSPECT RA TOTALS UP TO AN INCH WL BE PSBL OVER
THE E HALF OF THE FA. SINCE THE GFS SHOWS SSI DROPPING TO ARND -1C
OR SO OVER AXIS OF HIER PWAT AND UNDER SHARPER FORCING...ADDED A
MENTION OF SCHC THUNDER. WSHFT TO WNW OVERNGT BEHIND THE FROPA/SFC LO
SHIFTING INTO NW ONTARIO WL ALSO DRIVE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
DEEPER MSTR SHOULD EXIT BEFORE RA CAN CHANGE TO SN. STRONG CYC WNW
FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 35-40 KTS...WL SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING LK EFFECT TYPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF...WHERE THIS FLOW UPSLOPES...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -5C.
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE INCOMING LLVL AIRMASS WL BE ALSO DRIER...AS
FCST SDNGS HINT AT A BIT OF AN INVERTED V SFC TO H9-85 T/TD PROFILE.
WHILE THIS DRYING THAT WL LOWER NEAR SFC WBLB TEMP COULD SUPPORT A
MIX WITH SOME SN OVER AT LEAST THE HIER TERRAIN...WOULD ALSO EXPECT
MORE LIMITED POPS/QPF UNDER SOME PRONOUNCED DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV.
FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALF/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING...SOME ASSOCIATED DEEPER MSTR
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -8C WL SUPPORT LINGERING LK EFFECT
TYPE RA/SN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON FRI NGT/SAT IN AREAS FAVORED BY
THE FCST WNW WINDS. ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/LOWERING INVRN BASE TOWARD 3K
FT AGL DURING SAT NGT WL BRING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THIS PCPN.
EXTENDED...THE HI PRES MOVING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WL BRING DRY
WX TO THE UPR LKS ON SUN AND MON. STEADY WSW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK
OF THIS HI WL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO ARND 5C ON MON. SOME RA MAY RETURN NEXT TUE ALONG A LO
PRES TROF EXTENDING NE INTO THE UPR LKS FM A LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD
WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD
ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THRU TNGT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S
WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LO
PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROF
TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LO PRES CENTER
DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW
WIND. MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL AT LEAST
REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. OPTED TO ISSUE A
GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W LAKE DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS ON FRI. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE
COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z
WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND.
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE
DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING.
DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z
TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS
GOOD.
I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S
NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT
QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY..
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MEASUREABLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING
INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE
SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE LOW STRATUS DECK AND
EXTENT OF THE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC THIS MORNING...LEADING ME TO WONDER HOW THICK THE FOG
MAY ACTUALLY BE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER HIGH THAT IFR
AND A FEW LIFR CIGS WILL RESULT...AS WIND FORECASTS OF 5+ KTS MAKE
DENSER FOG A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE. CURRENTLY STICKING WITH IFR
VSBY AT THE MOMENT. AS THE MOISTURE IS THERE...WE MAY NEED TO
REASSESS THE SITUATION IN THE 00Z UPDATE. ASIDE FROM THE CIGS AND
VSBY CONCERNS...GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE ARE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY HINDER KMKG
FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS
FURTHER INLAND. INLAND CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER
SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN
THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN
BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE
AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN
MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT
OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE
60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S
APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO
THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD
GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING
WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE
PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE
REALIZED.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A
BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MVFR
HOLDING ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED ON EARLY TAFS. ONLY AREAS TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND A BETTER CHC OF VFR CONDS IN
THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE KRWF/KEAU WHERE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED. ELSEWHERE...VERY LOW CHC OF GOING TO VFR THIS
AFTN...WITH SOME AREAS HOLDING ONTO IFR CONDS THRU 20-21Z. EVEN
AREAS THAT DO SEE VFR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LOW CLOUDS /MVFR
THEN IFR/ WILL LIKELY FORM AND SPREAD ACROSS MPX TAF AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED -DZ/DZ OVERNIGHT AS CIGS LOWER AND
-SHRA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE SOUTH/SE DIRECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTN...AND POSSIBLY HOLDING ON THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AND SCATTER
OUT LATER TODAY. THE BEST AREAS OF SEEING VFR CONDS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN WI BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN. THERE
MAYBE A FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING OF VFR
CONDS...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO MVFR AND IFR
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...AND POSSIBLY HOLDING THRU THE EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT AREA AFT 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND W 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER
SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN
THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN
BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE
AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN
MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT
OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE
60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S
APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO
THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD
GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING
WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE
PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE
REALIZED.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A
BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIG LIMITED TO
MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT TREND OF
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING.
WENT WITH SOME FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIX GIVING
A MORE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP
OFF THIS EVENING OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 06Z AT KAXN AND AFTER 08Z AT KRWF.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO BEGAN TREND WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
CEILING SHOULD TREND TOWARD IFR AFTER 06Z TO THE EAST AS WELL.
KMSP...CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT APPEARS IF
A LOW END MVFR CIG DID DEVELOP IT WOULD BE 14Z-18Z PER TREND OF
THE 09Z HRRR. VFR INTO THE EVENING BECOMING MVFR CIG/BR AFTER 06Z
AND IFR AFTER 08Z. PRIMARILY SOUTHER WIND WITH SOME GUTS TO 22
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DARK.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU AFETRNOON...VFR WITH MVFR SHRA LIKELY ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE.
WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER
SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN
THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN
BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE
AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN
MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT
OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE
60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S
APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO
THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD
GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING
WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE
PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE
REALIZED.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A
BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VERY TRICKY CEILING FCST DUE TO HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY
THIS EVENING. SSE SURGE OF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT IN DOUBT BUT HOW
IT INTERACTS UNDERNEATH THE NIGHTLY INVERSION PLUS THE EVOLVING
MARINE LAYER SAGGING SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DETERMINE THE
BREADTH OF IFR CEILINGS TNGT. ATTM...ALL SITES ARE SKC SO HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE AS SUCH. HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGH DEGREE
OF PESSIMISM FROM THE PREVIOUS ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES AND MAINLY
CONFINED IFR CONDS TO TEMPO GROUPS WHILE STICKING WITH THE
PREVAILING MVFR IDEA THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED AMONG THE
HRRR/SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...AM NOT THINKING MVFR CONDS WILL
LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INDICATE AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TMRW.
KMSP...WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT CONDS AT KMSP THIS
SET. HAVE CONFINED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1700 FT CEILINGS ARND AND
JUST AFTER THE MRNG PUSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT SUCH
CONDS MAY BE REALIZED...PARTICULARLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS AND
STRONGER SLY WINDS SCOUR OUT LLVL MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE ATMOS.
HAVE SHOWN MVFR CEILINGS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR IFR-OR-WORSE
CONDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO AMENDMENTS MAY WELL STILL
BE NEEDED. ONCE INTO THE AFTN...HIGH CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WE ADDED FOG THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH SOME DENSE FOG
OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT AND WE MAY ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH
SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. WE WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BY 01Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD
OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN
AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE
EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED
CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND
950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO
USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE
MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER
MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS
SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM
NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS
WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR
SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS
LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND
THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN
CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4
KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING
A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING
AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN
COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
STRATUS COVERED MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PARK FALLS
HAVE REMAINED VFR AND THE STRATUS THAT THE MODELS INDICATED
EARLIER HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL
AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL BROUGHT LOWER CEILINGS INTO KBRD/KHYR
LATER TONIGHT AS THERE ENOUGH INDICATIONS THAT THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY FORM. FOG WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
VERSUS EASTERLY FURTHER NORTH.
MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70
INL 42 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70
BRD 48 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60
HYR 40 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70
ASX 43 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL
AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION
OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME
EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS
AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD
COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...
DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT
MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS
NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT
OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON
HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS
THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN
CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VERY TRICKY CEILING FCST DUE TO HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY
THIS EVENING. SSE SURGE OF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT IN DOUBT BUT HOW
IT INTERACTS UNDERNEATH THE NIGHTLY INVERSION PLUS THE EVOLVING
MARINE LAYER SAGGING SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DETERMINE THE
BREADTH OF IFR CEILINGS TNGT. ATTM...ALL SITES ARE SKC SO HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE AS SUCH. HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGH DEGREE
OF PESSIMISM FROM THE PREVIOUS ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES AND MAINLY
CONFINED IFR CONDS TO TEMPO GROUPS WHILE STICKING WITH THE
PREVAILING MVFR IDEA THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED AMONG THE
HRRR/SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...AM NOT THINKING MVFR CONDS WILL
LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INDICATE AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TMRW.
KMSP...WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT CONDS AT KMSP THIS
SET. HAVE CONFINED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1700 FT CEILINGS ARND AND
JUST AFTER THE MRNG PUSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT SUCH
CONDS MAY BE REALIZED...PARTICULARLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS AND
STRONGER SLY WINDS SCOUR OUT LLVL MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE ATMOS.
HAVE SHOWN MVFR CEILINGS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR IFR-OR-WORSE
CONDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO AMENDMENTS MAY WELL STILL
BE NEEDED. ONCE INTO THE AFTN...HIGH CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
919 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION MOVES IN.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP REACHING OUR NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO LACK
OF DECENT INSTABILITY...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CURRENT POP/WX FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO BETTER
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DO NOT EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL MUCH BELOW
CURRENT READINGS DUE TO THIS. LATEST TEMP TENDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT FORECST...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MIN
TEMP FORECAST. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...AS SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION
OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO KEEP VSBYS FROM GOING
MUCH BELOW MVFR IN FOG. BETTER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LOW CLOUD DECK FORMATION. ALREADY SEEING AREAS
OF LOW CLOUD FORMING ALONG THE MS RIVER AND WEST. WHILE EASTERN
AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS TOO...LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LIFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. AREAS OF RAIN WILL REACH GLH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THEY MOVED
EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
A 592DAM CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHILE AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOSING IN FROM
THE CAROLINAS. TOGETHER THESE HIGHS HELPED KEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL TO
OUR WEST. THEY ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE
RECENT PESKY CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LED TO RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS
BEING AT LEAST TIED AT MERIDIAN AND HATTIESBURG AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. RIDGING SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
OUR CWA BY MORNING. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN OUR SOUTH WERE AROUND 70F. AS A
RESULT FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE UPPER 40S.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WET WEATHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS OUR CWA. RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EDGE INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. OUR PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
TO NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE BY FRIDAY EVENING. OVERALL...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY BUT WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS WILL BE
HARD TO RULE OUT. THE BIGGER ISSUE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA FOR A DURATION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN SW-NE ORIENTED ACROSS OUR CWA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY LEAD MINOR
RUNOFF ISSUES IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A
MENTION OF FLOODING IN THE HWO. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP DROP A 1030MB
HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING
OUR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SATURDAY EVENING. RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL END OVER OUR CWA BY SATURDAY
EVENING BUT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAINLY
OVER OUR EAST AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR REGION. /22/
OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER AIR TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD BE
LIMITED DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS SO LOW TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY END UP
BEING ABOVE NORMAL. GOING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK...THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
POSITIVE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS REBUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 81 67 67 / 14 60 91 92
MERIDIAN 68 82 68 71 / 12 55 77 91
VICKSBURG 70 82 64 66 / 21 62 92 90
HATTIESBURG 69 84 70 75 / 12 45 38 75
NATCHEZ 69 81 67 68 / 18 60 91 92
GREENVILLE 69 77 59 64 / 47 74 71 69
GREENWOOD 68 80 61 64 / 29 74 89 81
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
354 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2015
Remnant stratus from Tuesday morning survived across some areas in
southeast MO and southwestern IL, edging southern and eastern
sections of STL Metro, and it was from here that this current round
of stratus and fog has developed. Stratus, thanks to the southerly
low level flow, has since expanded to cover nearly the entire CWA
save central and parts of northeast MO. Additional stratus that is
a bit higher is also surging northward from southern MO and far
western KY. Dense fog has been most prominent on the southeastern
edge of the stratus and has really not moved for much of the night--
persisting essentially where the remnant stratus was at the start of
last night: from roughly KFAM to K3LF, including much of STL Metro
East. Elsewhere, VSBY reductions exist, but they are not as
significant nor as widespread.
Analysis of several short-term hi-res model solutions appears to
show the most persistent area of dense fog remaining right where it
is, with minimal expansion perhaps to the NNW with the southerly
flow. This is currently covered well with the Dense Fog Advisory,
although it appears we will need to extend it to 16z (10am).
However, areas in west-central IL and northeast MO look to be shaky
with the Advisory as it stands now with better potential for more
isolated pockets of significant VSBY reduction versus widespread and
are being looked at for an early cancellation.
Area of slightly higher stratus surging thru southern MO and far
southern IL currently looks to eventually envelope the entire CWA by
late this morning. Given the time of day it is pushing north, into
what has been clear skies all night in central MO with minimal
dewpoint depressions, could see a brief episode of dense fog here as
well along this stratus` leading edge. Otherwise, gradual clearing
in the afternoon is anticipated areawide with the most persistent
cloud cover expected in the northern and eastern CWA.
Temperatures will once again be a challenge, with our area torn
between areas that stay cloudy all day barely breaking into the low
60s, and areas that see sun by early afternoon which will likely
break into the low to mid 70s. Have essentially leaned towards the
sunnier, warmer MAV MOS solution for most of the CWA except in the
north and east, where the cooler and cloudier MET MOS was favored.
As a footnote, for a few days now, various models have hinted at the
possibility of isolated SHRA in parts of southeast MO and southern
IL this afternoon. Hard to pin down what is driving this and so
will continue PoPs in these areas just below mentionable (10-14%)
for now.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2015
Tonight thru Thursday night
SW flow is expected to be firmly established at the beginning of the
prd with a strong ridge across the ern CONUS and a significant trof
digging into the intermountain west. Tonight will literally be the
calm before the storm. Lee side cyclogenesis will already be
underway by tonight across the cntrl high plains. The low will begin
to lift NE in response to an approaching short wave as it is ejected
from the long wave trof across the west. The upper lvl wave is fcst
to lift thru the region Thu night along with the attendant cold
front.
WAA will already be in full swing by this evng but with the very dry
nature of the existing atmosphere...it will take a considerable
amount of time to saturate the air mass...likely not until sometime
Thu mrng across cntrl MO. Precip should then make steady progress to
the N and E thru the remainder of the day. The cold front will bring
an end to the precip from west to east Thu night. Decent moisture
return means Dps should recover into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This
will produce limited instability on the order of a few hundred
Joules of MUCAPE. But as is often the case with cool season
events...this will be a low CAPE/high shear environment...with
100KTS expected at H500 and around 150 KTS at H300 by Thursday
night. This should be more than enough to generate storms. Some of
these could be strong...possibly severe with the main threat being
damaging straight line winds. As such...SPC has the entire CWA in a
marginal risk...which given the parameters looks justified. Although
FROPA is fcst for late evng into the overnight hrs...still think the
forcing assoc with this system is enough to keep the threat of
thunder going thru the night. All precip should be east of the FA by
Friday mrng.
Friday thru Tuesday
A strong 1030mb high is fcst to build into the region in concert
with an upper lvl ridge which will produce a seasonally cool wknd
with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Center of the high passes
to the east of the FA by Sunday with sthrly flow returning.
Upper pattern returns to SW flow by Monday as another trof moves
onshore along the west coast. Guidance begins to diverge at this
point as it deals with this energy towards midweek. The ECMWF moves
the exiting SFC high into the SE US early next week which sets the
stage for a WAA event on Tuesday on the backside of the retreating
SFC ridge whereas the GFS has the SFC ridge axis extending from the
Mid-Atlantic SW along the Gulf Coast early next week effectively
cutting off return flow moisture. They continue to diverge wrt the
upper lvl trof...but that is beyond the end of the fcst prd
thankfully.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Stratus deck as continue to slowly advect north and east while
also expanding. Should get to KCOU still around 0900 UTC. IFR
conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which
should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good
with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made
which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Another round of
fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...though later
and not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple
of nights.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement
which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly
good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes
made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Look for VFR
conditions by midday. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains
possible Wednesday night...around 0900 UTC...though not as bad
visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 74 60 72 54 / 5 5 40 90
Quincy 66 57 69 50 / 0 5 40 90
Columbia 73 58 69 49 / 0 5 60 80
Jefferson City 73 57 70 50 / 0 5 60 80
Salem 69 58 72 59 / 10 5 30 90
Farmington 72 58 69 58 / 10 5 50 90
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Franklin MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion
MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois
MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren
MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 708 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Dense fog is already starting to form in parts of south central
and southwest Illinois this evening. Expect this fog will spread
westward this evening and overnight at least to the Mississippi
river and into eastern Missouri. Will go ahead and issue a dense
fog advisory for these areas. Stronger gradient winds in the
boundary layer overnight across central and northeast Missouri may
keep the dense fog out, so will leave them out of the advisory foe
the moment and watch what happens. Advisory will be out shortly
and will run from 900 PM to 900 AM Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for
a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus
clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the
area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be
dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile.
It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where
the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest
values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest
surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10
degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the
low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively
high surface dew points for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once
again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location
of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job
with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud
deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area,
into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier
fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck.
This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like
it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR
guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low
level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified
than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there
should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may
not be quite a persistent as today.
Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon
cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in
the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly
signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud
trends become more clear.
The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern
remains with the storm system approaching the region on
Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly
good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly
out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday
evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and
associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring
some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday,
but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday
night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front,
and deep moisture all interact over the region.
Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection
Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red
River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this
activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due
to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of
convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges
across the area during the late evening and overnight hours.
Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season
severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern
attm.
Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a
very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or
early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a
threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early
Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain
going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm.
Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the
Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool
Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in
the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing
another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The
return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with
W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to
migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into
the area for the start of the new work week.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Stratus deck as continue to slowly advect north and east while
also expanding. Should get to KCOU still around 0900 UTC. IFR
conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which
should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good
with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made
which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Another round of
fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...though later
and not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple
of nights.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement
which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly
good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes
made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Look for VFR
conditions by midday. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains
possible Wednesday night...around 0900 UTC...though not as bad
visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 57 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30
Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30
Columbia 55 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50
Jefferson City 54 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50
Salem 52 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30
Farmington 55 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Franklin MO-Iron
MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-
St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL
ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS
NOSES INTO THE CWA.
A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z
RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED
QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO ERN NEB. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...QUITE LIKELY SCT -TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
A STALLED SFC BNDRY OVER NERN NEB SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY AT KOFK. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR THEN AT
ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL
ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS
NOSES INTO THE CWA.
A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z
RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED
QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS MRNG AND WILL CONT TO AFFECT
THE KOMA/KLNK TAF WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
TIME FRAME. THIS DECK MAY GET AS FAR NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE KOFK AND
WE WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP HERE FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS.
THE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN/EVNG. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS
AT ALL 3 SITES. WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KOMA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ/SHRA...ESPECIALLY
AT KOFK BUT WILL HOLD OF INCLUDING NOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
350 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL
ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS
NOSES INTO THE CWA.
A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z
RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED
QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. STRATUS DECK EDGING INTO KS/MO WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD...AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
AFFECT KOMA...AS WELL AS AT LEAST SKIRTING IF NOT OVERTAKING
KLNK/KOFK. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT
KOFK/KLNK...AND PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING
AT KOMA...FOR A PERIOD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE ON TRAVEL ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AND HIGHWAY 550 OVERNIGHT WITH
ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ABRUPT COOL-DOWN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1038 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INCHES CLOSER
TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK UP BY THE EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD IMPACT WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO
SUCH AS KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502>506-510>514.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INCHES CLOSER
TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK UP BY THE EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD IMPACT WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO
SUCH AS KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INVADE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A KTCC
TO KROW LINE. PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.
SOME BREAKS IN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD HAMPER WESTERN
TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO SUCH AS
KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE W OF THE CONTDVD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD DROP
NEAR 8500 FT TONIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6500 FEET ACROSS
FAR NW AREAS AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WED AFTN.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN LOWER FURTHER WED NIGHT. SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/SHSN ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MT OBSCURATIONS WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS WED.
ISOLD TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
N CENTRAL NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WED.
44
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 50 29 48 24 / 70 50 30 0
DULCE........................... 48 25 42 13 / 90 60 50 5
CUBA............................ 51 27 42 21 / 70 50 40 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 25 44 18 / 70 50 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 23 42 17 / 60 50 30 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 25 47 18 / 50 40 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 29 43 21 / 40 40 30 0
GLENWOOD........................ 60 33 51 26 / 60 30 10 0
CHAMA........................... 47 22 36 14 / 90 70 50 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 29 43 25 / 60 40 30 0
PECOS........................... 52 30 43 24 / 50 30 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 24 41 17 / 60 50 30 5
RED RIVER....................... 47 20 34 13 / 70 60 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 25 38 15 / 70 40 20 0
TAOS............................ 53 26 42 18 / 60 40 20 0
MORA............................ 51 28 44 21 / 50 40 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 29 47 21 / 60 30 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 27 43 22 / 60 40 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 30 46 24 / 60 30 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 33 48 28 / 50 30 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 36 52 31 / 50 20 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 30 53 25 / 50 20 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 30 52 25 / 50 20 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 32 54 28 / 50 20 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 34 52 28 / 50 20 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 64 35 59 28 / 50 20 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 29 45 26 / 50 20 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 30 47 27 / 50 20 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 28 51 19 / 50 20 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 30 46 25 / 40 20 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 33 50 27 / 40 20 20 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 36 54 29 / 40 20 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 33 50 29 / 30 20 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 64 31 53 22 / 20 40 20 0
RATON........................... 63 28 53 21 / 20 40 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 61 28 51 22 / 20 20 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 29 50 23 / 30 30 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 36 60 28 / 10 30 10 0
ROY............................. 67 32 55 27 / 20 30 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 70 36 57 29 / 20 20 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 37 59 31 / 20 20 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 75 40 64 31 / 5 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 72 39 62 33 / 5 10 10 0
PORTALES........................ 74 40 63 33 / 5 10 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 39 63 31 / 5 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 76 40 68 32 / 5 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 67 36 62 29 / 10 10 5 0
ELK............................. 62 36 54 28 / 10 20 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS INTO EARLY AFTN
WITH SPARSE COVERAGE CURRENTLY OVER AREA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
INDICATE VERY LITTLE COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WHILE SREF DOES INDICATE
SOME INCREASE FROM S TO N. WEAK MCV IS EVIDENT IN ROTATION OF
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF NE SC...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
AT LEAST SRN PART OF AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHC N TO
CHC S REST OF MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO LIKELY SRN 2/3 THIS
AFTN. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS MOST AREAS WTIH LOW
CLOUDS LIMITING INSOLATION.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST TRYING DETERMINE THE
TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORCING
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
IT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE MODEST LIFT, ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK GOING AND PRODUCE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF RUNS WERE VERY BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS TO DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY WHILE THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS MUCH LESS THAN THE ECMWF. NOT SURE IF THIS WAS DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE ECMWF OR IF THE MODEL IS PICKING UP ON
SOME KIND OF DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH A WELL DEFINED 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 " THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK
SHOULD PERSIST ALONG WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S, HOWEVER, THE MOS
GUIDANCE WAS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. WENT WITH THE GUIDANCE BUT WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NC AND
OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COULD ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. CONTINUED TREND OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHEST POPS COAST (LIKELY) AND CHANCE
INLAND DURING THE EVENING. THEN WILL INDICATE LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST FORCING SLIDES. THERE ARE
STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING DENSE FOG. MILD LOWS
WILL CONTINUE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THU...AS
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
SC/LOW CHANCE RAIN THU...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
TEMPS WARMING INTO FRI...WITH DRYING AND CLEARING. FRI LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW...HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR FRI WITH LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E SUN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DUE TO LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW DAYS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NNW INTO MON. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO WITH MOISTURE SHUNTED MORE TO
THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS POPS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...AND
FAVORED A DRIER SOLUTION JUST KEEPING SC POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON...IN THE 60S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...CLOUD BASES HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO LOWER
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE KOAJ/KEWN
12-18ZTODAY AS AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE. WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY TO VFR LATE TODAY DUE TO CONVECTIVE MIXING BUT
WITH CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW PERSISTING THINK LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THU...AS RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF AND LOWER CEILINGS LIFT. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR
TO RETURN BY LATE THU AND INTO EARLY SAT. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AND SAT MORNINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS SAT EVENING/SAT NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. VFR
SHOULD RETURN SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX WORDING PER NEAR
TERM SECTION...NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE WATERS WHILE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE VEERING FLOW FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST 10
TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATED STRONGER SE FLOW TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE WATERS THU. PRED E/SE WINDS 5-15KT THU WITH SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH
OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
S/SW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE
WNW FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOVING THROUGH SAT EVENING/SAT NIGHT.
COULD SEE PRE-FRONTAL SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. STRONG CAA
SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MOST OF
WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. BETTER
THAN 150 METER HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER NORTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND BETTER THAN 250 METER HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST FOR FRI OVER EASTERN
CANADA WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLOUDY AND TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH THIS
EVENING. AREA SHOULD REMAINS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME BREAKS
IN THE SOUTH. WILL INCREASE TEMPS NORTH AND DECREASE SOME SOUTH.
TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS DEEPENED
ABOUT 10 MB IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. RAP MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED LOWER LAYER TO BECOME
MORE ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AROUND 900 HPA. WINDS
AROUND 900 HPA DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25
TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
INCREASE WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE
E/NE...AS EXPECTED. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE WHAT
OCCURS CLOSER TO SUNSET (IF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE
ROADS)...ALTHOUGH PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE WAY DOWN BY THEN WITH
ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF
BAUDETTE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NOT
SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONTINUED TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA (NEAR THE SD
BORDER)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. STRONGEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST NE OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE BAUDETTE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY...WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S SAT MORNING (IF WE CAN CLEAR).
MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME
HIGHS..ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. A SW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY TUESDAY...AND A SFC LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE WY ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...BRINING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR THOSE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
GROUND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITHOUT A
DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP...ANY SNOW MID NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHORT LIVED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS
DOES SHOW A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH P6SM OVER
MOST OF EASTERN ND AND 3 MILES OR GREATER OVER NORTHWEST MN EXCEPT
FOR BDE WITH AROUND 1 MILE VISIBILITY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MN. CIGS RANGED FROM 3 TO 26
HUNDRED FT ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT CIGS TO RANGE FROM LIFR TO
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS DEEPENED
ABOUT 10 MB IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. RAP MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED LOWER LAYER TO BECOME
MORE ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AROUND 900 HPA. WINDS
AROUND 900 HPA DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25
TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
INCREASE WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE
E/NE...AS EXPECTED. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE WHAT
OCCURS CLOSER TO SUNSET (IF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE
ROADS)...ALTHOUGH PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE WAY DOWN BY THEN WITH
ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF
BAUDETTE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NOT
SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONTINUED TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA (NEAR THE SD
BORDER)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. STRONGEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST NE OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE BAUDETTE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY...WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S SAT MORNING (IF WE CAN CLEAR).
MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME
HIGHS..ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. A SW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY TUESDAY...AND A SFC LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE WY ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...BRINING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR THOSE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
GROUND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITHOUT A
DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP...ANY SNOW MID NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHORT LIVED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS
DOES SHOW A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH P6SM OVER
MOST OF EASTERN ND AND 3 MILES OR GREATER OVER NORTHWEST MN EXCEPT
FOR BDE WITH AROUND 1 MILE VISIBILITY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MN. CIGS RANGED FROM 3 TO 26
HUNDRED FT ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT CIGS TO RANGE FROM LIFR TO
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE AM HOURS. LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT.
LATEST MODELS KEYING IN ON A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION...MOST
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES...DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A
S/WV IMPULSE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EASTERN ND LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD
BE MUCH MORE INTERESTING AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AREA AS REDUCED VISIBILITY REPORTS ARE STARTING TO
COME IN THROUGHOUT MANY PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
LINE WITH GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...AREA WEBCAMS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN
DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10
KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS
HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL
WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT
YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER A FEW LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
727 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCE CLOUD TOPS SPREADING NE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
BUT THERE IS SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR PREDICTION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO POPS AND OTHER NEAR TERM ELEMENTS
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDS MAY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH IN PLACES...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FEW NEAR
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
FAIRLY DRY AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO THE
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SKIES
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THINK THE RAIN WILL BE DONE
IN TOL AND FDY BY 10 AM...DONE AT MFD TO CLE BY 1 PM AND PROBABLY
DONE AT ERI BY 3 PM. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY START TO FALL SOME AFTER
THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE WILL START TO MAKE LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE FRI NIGHT SO SOME SCT SHRA AND
ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWBELT AND NEARBY AREAS.
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
EARLY SUN MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA
TO DIMINISH THE THREAT. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES COULD TRY AND MIX IN
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND AS THE
COOL AIRMASS IS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER THIS WEEKS WARMTH WILL
PROBABLY FEEL EVEN COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. TO OUR SOUTHWEST HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TN VLY. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE NNE THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HOWEVER
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH THE GFS GIVING THE REGION A GLANCING BLOW
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOISTURE SQUARE ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL FAVOR A TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS POINT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES FORCING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
CROSSED INTO OHIO FROM INDIANA. THE MAIN SHOW HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE FINE
TUNED THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. WILL OMIT THUNDER FOR NOW GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE RAIN ARRIVES. SOME AREAS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOST OF THE AREA COULD BE CLEAR. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. SIMILAR GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE OHIO AND NW PA...
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY WEST
TO EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BEGINNING ABOUT 7-8AM FRIDAY. BY 18Z THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ESE OF THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED FLOW REACHING 15 TO
20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WEST HALF BY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH NEAR 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK. SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST HOWEVER A
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE BACK TO ABOUT 15
TO 20 KNOTS OR SO IN THE COOLER AIR. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE MORE
OVER THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
644 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT. COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
COOLER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK
SYSTEM PASSES ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO CANADA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER DID TRY
TO ADD SHARPER GRADIENT TO THE POPS TO REFINE LOCAL TIMING OF BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIN CAPE PROFILE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENOUGH SO TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. CAPE
LOOKS TO MAX OUT UNDER 500 J/KG...SO NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE.
850MB FLOW REALLY PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...MAXING OUT AT 40-50KTS FROM 12Z-15Z. THE NAM THEN SHOWS
850MB WINDS STARTING TO SLACKEN SOME...30-40KTS BY THE TIME THE
PRECIP MOVES IN. STILL...MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS COULD
MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.
A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SOUTHERN CWA BY EVENING. THIS WILL ACT TO
HOLD THE FRONT UP SOME ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. FARTHER NORTHWEST...RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END
ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT
APPEARS EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES. STILL LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AT START OF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY WANE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. DRIER...AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES UP FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS BULLISH WITH A
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE EURO
RESTRAINS THE SAME FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. A TAD BIT DIFFICULT
TO GENERATE A GOOD DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL GENERALIZED POPS OVER A PERIOD TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. OVERALL JET REMAINS RATHER
ZONAL WHICH LENDS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK IS EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO INVADE WV TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND GOOD
VENTILATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS EXCEPT AT EKN WHERE MOUNTAINS BARRIER WILL KEEP
CALM FLOW AND A DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE AND FOG FORMATION IS
ANTICIPATED FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE. FLOW ALSO PICKING UP AHEAD OF THIS...WITH 850MB
FLOW EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 40-50KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR LLWS BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE
TO DECOUPLE. SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IT TAFS AT THIS POINT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE FOG MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AT EKN TONIGHT
DUE TO GOOD VENTILATION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE RAIN/STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
356 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE
04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE
IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD
OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE
CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAHALE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 73 47 64 / 40 50 10 0
HOBART OK 60 73 44 64 / 50 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 76 46 69 / 50 60 10 0
GAGE OK 54 71 37 64 / 40 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 73 43 64 / 30 50 10 0
DURANT OK 63 71 52 70 / 50 90 50 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1137 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST
MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD
COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD
BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST
DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT
HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE
LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.
OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT
BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.
TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE
EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE
AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE...
AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH
850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING
PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS
RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE
COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL
RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED
UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY
STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY
MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS
WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED
STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR
PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END.
AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY
AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A
FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE
BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT
JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING
FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER
STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL
LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS
TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY
LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE
DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS
UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
AGAIN...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WITH STRATUS AND FOG
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT
MID-DAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET.
FURTHER WEST...THE PROGRESSION OF STRATUS AND COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWED DOWN IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS..BUT MAY OVERSPREAD KHON EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK INTO
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
LIFR TO VLIFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALL TERMINALS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
538 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST
MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD
COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD
BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST
DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT
HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE
LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.
OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT
BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.
TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE
EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE
AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE...
AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH
850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING
PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS
RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE
COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL
RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED
UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY
STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY
MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS
WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED
STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR
PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END.
AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY
AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A
FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE
BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT
JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING
FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER
STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL
LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS
TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY
LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE
DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS
UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
CURRENTLY STRATUS IS DEVELOPING/ADVECTING NORTHWARD RIGHT ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND ALSO INTO THE STORM LAKE AREA.
FEEL THAT IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING...THERE WAS LITTLE NEED
TO CHANGE THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES WITH THE MENTION OF IFR TO
LOWER END MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. CONTINUED TO PRIMARILY USE
THE RAP MODEL FOR THE MORNING HOURS...THEN THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH THE NAM LOOKING WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC AT KHON
CURRENTLY. IN FACT KHON IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT IT LOOKED LIKE ON
THE VIS/FOG CURVE ON THE IR SATELLITE THAT THERE WAS SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS JUST WEST OF KHON BEFORE THE HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THEM
UP. HARD TO TELL HOW HIGH THOSE CLOUDS WERE...SO KEPT A SCATTERED
DECK AT FIVE HUNDRED FEET AGL FOR THEM IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OUR ZONES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 TONIGHT BRINGING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FOR KHON. THE GFS STRONGLY HINTS AT AN IFR DECK
EVENTUALLY LATE TONIGHT FOR KHON WHICH STANDS TO REASON AS THERE
ARE A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN SD RIGHT
NOW. KEPT KFSD AND KSUX AT MVFR TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND. IT IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSRA TONIGHT FOR KFSD AND
KSUX...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY TO BE PINPOINTING THAT DOWN.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST
MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD
COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD
BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST
DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT
HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE
LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.
OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT
BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.
TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE
EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE
AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE...
AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH
850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING
PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS
RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE
COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL
RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED
UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY
STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY
MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS
WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED
STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR
PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HGIHS IN
THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END.
AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY
AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A
FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE
BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT
JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING
FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER
STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL
LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS
TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY
LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE
DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS
UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DECIDED FOR THE 06Z TAF SET TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE RAP IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND AVIATION MODEL IN THE LONGER TERM FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM PAINTS A TON OF STRATUS AROUND THE
AREA...THEN LINGERS IT ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS...IT CURRENTLY HAS
STRATUS RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS NONE AROUND. SO THE NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME IS NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY. THERE IS IFR AND MVFR STRATUS
IN OKLAHOMA...NOW STREAMING A BIT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS.
THEREFORE IF THE STRATUS ADVECTS IN INSTEAD OF DEVELOPS...THEN THE
RAP SEEMS REASONABLE IN PRODUCING AN IFR STRATUS DECK AT KFSD AND
KSUX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERS IT INTO LATE
MORNING. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NAM HAS A LOT OF LIGHT QPF FOR
KFSD AND KSUX WHICH LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE. BUT AGAIN THAT WILL ONLY
PAN OUT IF THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF STRATUS PRESENT WHICH IS THE
QUESTION MARK.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN SURGING WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL APPROACH 70
THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS TONIGHT...IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF A FALL FRONT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS REGARDING
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS
CPD PLOTS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 WILL HAVE RAPID
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MIXING WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AT TIMES DESPITE MIXY WINDS. FURTHER WEST...COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON.
CLOUDS AND WINDS MAY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD HIGH MINS.
WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY...STRONG WINDS SHOULD MIX THROUGH A
RELATIVELY THIN STRATUS LAYER. WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WOULD ANTICIPATE 70S ONCE AGAIN. THE QUESTIONABLE AREAS WILL
BE OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA COUNTIES WHERE STRATUS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO THIN. THE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD SHOULD HELP SCATTER
THINGS OUT EVEN IN THE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS AGAIN TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...BUT DISSIMILARITIES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE BECOME LESS AND LESS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL EXTEND RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH
MATCHING THE SWODY2 OUTLOOK.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE POST FRONTAL
REGIME THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RATHER STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD. GIVEN
TIME OF THE DAY...FEEL THE RISK FOR SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN IS
LOW...BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.
WILL ALSO ADVERTISE A NON-STANDARD DIURNAL TREND FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 18Z WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
ON THURSDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS ON THROUGH WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING IN OUR EAST. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL OFF OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH
LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S.
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS JUST
EITHER SIDE OF 50. KEPT ANY CHANCES OF POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST...WITH ONLY THE GFS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RUNNING MAINLY 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DECIDED FOR THE 06Z TAF SET TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE RAP IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND AVIATION MODEL IN THE LONGER TERM FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM PAINTS A TON OF STRATUS AROUND THE
AREA...THEN LINGERS IT ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS...IT CURRENTLY HAS
STRATUS RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS NONE AROUND. SO THE NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME IS NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY. THERE IS IFR AND MVFR STRATUS
IN OKLAHOMA...NOW STREAMING A BIT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS.
THEREFORE IF THE STRATUS ADVECTS IN INSTEAD OF DEVELOPS...THEN THE
RAP SEEMS REASONABLE IN PRODUCING AN IFR STRATUS DECK AT KFSD AND
KSUX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERS IT INTO LATE
MORNING. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NAM HAS A LOT OF LIGHT QPF FOR
KFSD AND KSUX WHICH LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE. BUT AGAIN THAT WILL ONLY
PAN OUT IF THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF STRATUS PRESENT WHICH IS THE
QUESTION MARK.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
TWO LONGWAVE FEATURES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHING EASTWARD
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS KEPT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL PUSH
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DUE TO THIS...EXPECT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE BUT IT APPEARS THE LIFT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS...CAUSING OVERCAST SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE DRY AIR WITH WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN IN THE
EVENING...A SQUALL LINE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDER. WINDS ARE STRONG THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SO
WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STORMS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
COULD BE STRONG...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. AFTER THIS
LINE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER DECREASING OVERNIGHT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVER NIGHT...SO DEPENDING ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN...COULD SEE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY
EVENING...COOLER AIR SHOULD ADVECT IN FOR TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP BEGINNING SUNDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND GRADUAL WARMING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 73 65 75 / 20 30 20 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 72 63 75 / 10 20 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 71 62 75 / 10 20 10 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 74 57 74 / 10 10 10 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
853 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SE TX. NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE MID
50S THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE
UPPER 60S BY MORNING. SFC DEW PTSIN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AT 800 PM.NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND LOWERED POPS EARLIER IN THE EVENING FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.AT 800 PM...A DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL
LOSE IT`S PUNCH AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT ABUT THE RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INSIOST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF SE TX. 850 MB
MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND AND 850 JET EXTENDS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE. 300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS LIES IN A RRQ.
CAN`T SAY I AM TOO IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE NAM AND RAP INITIALIZED
THIS EVENING BUT THE CONSENSUS FROM ALMOST EVERY MODEL IS THAT THE
DRY LINE WILL EDGE EAST AND SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST
BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL LET THE PREVIOUS FCST RIDE WITH 80 POPS AFTER
06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING
HIGH ON FRIDAY EITHER BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE FRI NITE INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE AVIATION FORECASTS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE
21Z SURFACE SHOWED A DRY LINE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND A COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH APPROACHING THE OK PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH A
COLD POOL MAY PUSH A WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS
LATER TONIGHT...FELT THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING THE WIND SHIFT ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO THE METRO HOUSTON
AIRPORTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THAT REGARD...LIKED THE NAM12
HANDLING OF THE WIND SHIFT BETTER WHICH KEPT IT NORTH OF KCXO
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...FELT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER KCLL AND AND KUTS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR KSGR AND KLBX...AND POSSIBLY OVER KIAH...MAINLY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z FURTHER INLAND AND THROUGH 21Z AT KLBX.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S... WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED AND EXPECT ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO LINGER THROUGH SUNSET...
BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/ SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT AS IT INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH.
WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO
CROCKETT LINE FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WPC DOES HAVE THIS AREA OUTLINED
FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT... PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY WATCH HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED SHORT DURATION AND LOCAL FLASH FLOOD DECISION TREE
GUIDANCE ONLY HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL THREAT.
BECAUSE THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT... THERE IS SOME ADDED
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE... THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO REACH THE BRAZOS VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSHES TOWARDS
THE HOUSTON METRO DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG... BOTH INLAND TONIGHT AND SEA
FOG NOW THROUGH SATURDAY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SEA FOG LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. AS MORE MOIST
AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GULF WATERS... SEA FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST.
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT OF COVERAGE GIVEN
DISPARITIES IN UPPER FORCING AND SOLUTIONS WITH SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST...
PUSHING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST
DURING THE DAY...AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT & DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...PROBABLY INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE BY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER BACK TO THE SE
ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL - PARTLY DUE
TO THE CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HWY 87/124 AREA ON BOLIVAR LATE SAT
INTO SUN. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 73 61 66 50 / 80 50 60 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 66 70 54 / 50 50 70 70 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 70 72 59 / 20 40 60 70 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
810 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE... HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORM RISK UNTIL AROUND 9PM WHEN THE DRYLINE AND PSEUDO
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE DECREASED
RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH 8-9PM SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT AND
EXPECTED TRENDS. NEW ZONES AND FORECAST HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED.
AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ADVERTISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GOING
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICS MAY BE TOO HIGH
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR COMPOSITE WITH WEAKENING STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO LET THESE VALUES RIDE FOR NOW
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
PWAT AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SET-UP REVEALS AN OPEN AND
WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH ONLY 40-60 KT H5 FLOW
OVERTOP SOUTHERLY 25 KT 925MB FLOW THAT HAS USHERED IN 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AMOUNTS NEAR 2.1". OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS LITTLE TO NO H5 HEIGHT FALLS HAVE OCCURRED AND MUCH
OF THE FORCING AND DYNAMIC LIFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...BOTH GLOBAL AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR MIDNIGHT PER NWP MASS FIELDS. THE RAP13
REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR SAN ANTONIO INTO FRIO/MEDINA WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL DURING THIS EVENT THUS FAR AND IS
ALSO ON THE LOWER END OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH 1-3
INCHES. THE HRRR REMAINS A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGH OUTLIER AND HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL AT ALL OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED
FOR NOW. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE MIDNIGHT TO 6AM
TIME-FRAME FOR ANY UP-TICK IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE OVERALL
MESOSCALE SET-UP IS NOT IN FAVOR OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN
WEAK TO LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. LOOKING
DOWNSTREAM IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO...THERE IS
LITTLE DISCERNIBLE EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WOULD HELP ENHANCE
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. DESPITE THESE FACTORS AND GIVEN THE NEAR
RECORD PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE PLUS A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IF
STORMS HAVE NOT FIRED BY MIDNIGHT TO 3AM...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWERED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS ARE STARTING OUT VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CIGS. THERE IS A
LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WHICH IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD NOT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THIS IS WHEN CIGS SHOULD LOWER AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z. AFTER THAT TIME THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES HAS LED TO A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
TAKE PLACE WEST OF I-35/NORTH OF I-10. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS
IN STORE BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO
NORTHWARD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS TO REMOVE EDWARDS COUNTY AS IT APPEARS THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF EDWARDS COUNTY. WE/LL
STILL MENTION RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW...IT
WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL MENTION A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...WE
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 50-60% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FINALLY BRINGS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS
TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 70 56 65 50 / 90 50 50 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 70 56 65 49 / 80 50 50 60 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 72 58 67 51 / 80 50 50 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 54 64 48 / 90 30 50 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 73 60 67 52 / 40 20 50 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 70 54 65 47 / 90 40 50 60 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 71 58 67 49 / 70 40 50 60 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 57 65 50 / 80 50 50 60 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 74 60 67 51 / 80 50 50 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 71 60 67 52 / 70 50 50 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 73 61 68 53 / 70 50 50 60 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...
KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A
SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A
NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM
CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO
THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST
AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW.
THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT
THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPRAOCH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO
BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 60 80 80 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 60 80 80 30 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 70 70 80 30 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 60 70 80 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...
KERR...KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE
SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER
WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF
PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT
CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIIZZLE TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
COTNINEU TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA
THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS
SUPISIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE
SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH
MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT
ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING
THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT
TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A
SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE
PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE LEAD TO A WIDE ARRAY OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS...BUT CONTINUED MOIST FLOW ATOP A PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MANY LOCATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 06-08Z...AFTER WHICH SOME DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN
THEIR SLOW EROSION.
OUTLOOK...
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERS STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1039 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE A
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NC TOP A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RAP SHOWS SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ALBEIT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 800MB...TO MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. DON`T EXPECT IT TO
BE A COMPLETELY WET DAY THOUGH..AND SOME SUN MAY PEAK TROUGH AT
TIMES WITH DRIER AIR JUST OFF TO THE NORTH. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA NORTHWARD
THROUGH SE WV...ALLEGHANYS AND PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...TO UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF ROANOKE TO MOUNT AIRY/WILKESBORO NC. -22
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THE LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH. WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN
MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE WV/VA BORDER BEFORE THE FOCUS STARTS TO
SHIFT BACK EAST THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER
POPS 40-50 EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS...TO CHANCE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S
EAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEW
RIVER VALLEY AS CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. -WP
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY KICK OUT
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH
A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES AN EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVES DIG A TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT BUT
MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY
EVENING. AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT GRADUALLY CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ARE LACKING. WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE
A SOLID FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK
GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
QUESTIONS IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS QUITE DRY/COOL
WITH THE HIGH ABOUT OVERHEAD AND LITTLE RETURN FLOW INTO THE WEDGE
UNTIL MONDAY...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING MORE
COASTAL TROFFINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING PERHAPS SOME
-RA BACK INTO THE COOL POOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ONSET OF THE DRY ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT INITIALLY BEFORE ANY
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRIER
WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA RETURNING BY TUESDAY. COOLER 85H TEMPS ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY- MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO UPPER 50S/LOW
60S UNDER BETTER RETURN FLOW TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM
1500-4500 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR DANVILLE EARLY
BUT BEST THREAT OF THIS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MODELS FAVOR BKN TO SCT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT LWB/BLF AT TIMES
THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP A CIG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR. DRIER ABOVE THE LOWEST
LVLS MAY CREATE A FOG ISSUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE WEDGE FROM
THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP/22
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN
BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST
24-36 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN
ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST
WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS.
A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS
FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE.
THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A
STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.
COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES
WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM
SPELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING
THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW
RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH.
PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF
WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING
WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING. IT WILL ALREADY HAVE PASSED
KRST BY 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF KLSE
BETWEEN 01-02Z. SOME THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OVER IA...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOR KLSE. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT
THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING AT KLSE AS A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TRENDS
IN MOST MESO MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN
DOESN/T CATCH UP TO THE FRONT UNTIL ITS PASSED KLSE. WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD THIS TREND.
FOR CIGS...A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE MVFR CIGS AROUND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT 2 KFT OR SO RETURNS WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH DECREASING
SATURATION AND MIXING LEADING TO A SCATTERING OF THE DECK BETWEEN 15-
19Z FRI.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD SW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
EAST COAST HIGH WILL KEEP THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT
MORE STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WHILE SOME OF
THE STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST HAS DIURNALLY DISSIPATED
EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
IN FACT KEEPING A CLOSE EYE VIA VSBL IMAGERY ON NW EXPANSION OF
LARGE STRATUS/FOG AREA OVER LAKE MI. ALSO SEEING MORE NARROW BAND
ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHICH HAS NUDGED ONSHORE. OVER MUCH OF SRN WI
THE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION EVOLVING BUT NOT COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THERE ARE SOME DECENT WINDS OFF THE DECK AND
THIS SHOULD NEGATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS MAY RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG ON ADJACENT LAND AREAS THERE
HOWEVER TRAJ SUGGESTS ANY OF THIS FOG WOULD NOT MAKE A SIGGY INLAND
PUSH. OVERALL MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT HANGING
TO OUR WEST. 925 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TEMPS DEEP INTO THE 60S. WILL HAVE TO AGAIN CONTEND WITH SOME
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT GETTING CLOSER...BUT ANY SHRA CHANCES
CONFINED TO WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA
CONCEIVABLY COULD REACH 70 AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN
SEE. OVERALL UPTICK IN 700 MILLIBAR RH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE SOMEWHAT WARMER GFS MOS BUT IF WINDOW BETWEEN ANY
MORNING STRATUS AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS NARROWS THEN THE COOLER
NAM MOS TEMPS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
CAUSE COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...THIS IS WELL OVER 95TH
PERCENTILE. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS
CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TRAILING OFF AFTER 06Z AS STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST.
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM NEAR THE SFC UP TO 600H
SWEEPS THRU SRN WI AS LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-6.5 DEGREES WHILE ELEVATED CAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 500 J/KG JUST PRIOR TO STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. HENCE WL BEEF UP THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE AND ISOLD
OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DYNAMIC TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE T THREAT TO SCT.
MUCH COLDER AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. 925H
TEMPS TUMBLE 10C AND EXPECT FRI MAX T TO BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER.
WITH SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC...DRIER SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO LOW
LEVELS AND CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS FOR AT LEAST PART OF FRI. BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS WRN GTLAKES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF SLIDES TO THE EAST.
.EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...HIGH TRENDING TO MEDIUM.
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS BROADSCALE
UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER UPPER MIDWEST TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GTLAKES ON MON.
AT THIS TIME...COLUMN MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
PINCHED OFF DUE TO LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST AND
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME ADDED LIFT FROM INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE TIME. COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY LOW
POPS FOR NOW.
WARMER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO
RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AS UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF OVER WRN CONUS TO
WEAKEN SOME AS IT GETS NUDGED NORTHEAST BY EASTERN PACIFIC TROF
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CONUS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF WL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIKELY BRING BETTER
THREAT FOR SHRA TO SRN WI TUE NIGHT INTO WED NGT.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEASONAL NORMAL BY THE 12TH. GFS 5-DAY
500H PATTERN INDICATING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS SPREADING INTO
UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z/12 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL HAS SHOWN SOME
DIURNAL DISSIPATION BUT WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT
THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR MORE IFR STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE
WITH SOME IFR VSBYS AS WELL. WINDS OFF THE DECK SUGGEST WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT SOME PATCHY LWR VSBYS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING BACK INTO SRN WI. AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
DAYS AS BEING THE BEST WINDOW FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...COOLER LAKE TEMPS INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN FOG OVER A PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WATCHING
TRENDS ON VSBL IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS/FOG AREA TRENDING NW AND
EXPANDING FROM MID LAKE WITH A MORE NARROW BAND NEAR THE SHORE. FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO HAVE
HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHER CONFIDENT SCA SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BETTER DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY LMZ643-644 UNTIL 18Z/THU.
$$
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...PC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
INCOMING STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.
WATER VAPOR REVEALING A DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WHILE A MAJOR UPSTREAM RIDGE WAS DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO CLEAR
OUT TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GENERAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL AID IN
MORE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT/CROSS SECTION RH FIELDS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER A RATHER
STRONG INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 850MB. WITH THIS PILING UP OF
MOISTURE/INCREASING STRATUS/LIFT UNDER THE INVERSION...THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI. TEMPERATURE-WISE...PLAN ON LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. NAM SHOWING 500-1000J/KG OF
MUCAPE WHILE GFS20 ONLY SHOWING 250-500J/KG. BELIEVE REALIZED CAPE
WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DESPITE AMPLE AVAILABLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT...BELIEVE
MINIMAL CAPE WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF ANYTHING SEVERE. BUT...WILL
MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON IT ANYWAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE MAINLY A
SEVERE WIND THREAT IF SOMETHING COULD GET GOING. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY THURSDAY WITH PRE-
FRONTAL HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S.
LOOK FOR THE FRONT AND SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WITH COLDER/BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
FRIDAY WILL BE A BRISK/COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
THEN LOWER 50S....WHICH REALLY...IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL ADD A NOVEMBER FEEL TO THE AIR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK QUIET AS UPPER/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATE THE REGION. AFTER A RATHER COOL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S...PLAN ON SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.
BY MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS
WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE
WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT
THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE
DRIZZLE FORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD A 1000MB LOW NEAR THE NEB/WY/CO BORDER WITH
A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MN. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE LOW/TROUGH WAS OVER MN/IA/MUCH OF WI. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
MN/IA EARLY THIS MORNING 10-15MPH G15-20MPH. WINDS ACROSS WI MORE IN
THE 5-10MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED
AND TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 07Z...MANY TEMPS REMAINED ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS DATE...THIS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY/SFC OBS DID SHOW AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS/BR/FG
LIFTING NORTH THRU IL/FAR EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
04.00Z MODELS FOR THE MOST PART INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. GFS WAS
ODDLY LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL WHERE THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAD PERSISTED ALL DAY. SOLUTIONS SIMILAR FOR TODAY AS
PIECES OF ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP
TROUGH/MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY 00Z. THIS WHILE
HGTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
AS ENERGY STARTS TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
HGTS START TO FALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND BY
12Z THU. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPS. WHERE LOWER LEVEL MODEL RH PROGS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM EASTERN NEB/
NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHWEST MN...SKIES ARE CLEAR. WHERE THERE ARE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF IL/NEARBY AREAS...MODELS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON THE LOWER MOISTURE/RH SIGNAL. THIS AREA OF LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS UNDER WSR-88D VAD PROFILES SHOWING 925MB WINDS SOUTHWEST 30-
40KTS AT KDMX/KDVN/KARX. USED SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS THRU 09Z FOR
CLOUD COVER/FCST GRIDS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH LIKE
TUE...STRONGER SFC-850MB GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD MIX/ERODE ANY SHALLOW
CLOUD LAYER AFTER 15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS LOOKING TO SEE
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORING A FCST WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. IF SKIES WERE TO END UP SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
THRU THE DAY...MUCH LIKE TUE HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD STILL TOP
OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOW
MIXING TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH 30-35KTS IN THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE MIXED LAYER. A BREEZY/WINDY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH WINDS 15-
25MPH G25-35MPH. STRONGER OF THESE IN THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER.
STRONGER SIGNAL AMONG MODELS FOR THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC-
850MB...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS UNDER SOME BROAD 850-
700MB ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO WESTERN MN
BY 12Z THU. AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS LATER TONIGHT MAY YET NEED A
MENTION OF PATCHY DZ. WITH A LIMITED SIGNAL FOR THIS AMONG THE
MODELS LEFT TONIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. LEFT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
ON THE TIGHTER SIDE AS WELL TONIGHT...WITH SFC WINDS LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN THE 8-15KT RANGE THRU THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING...A MILD
NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS AT OR ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR NOV 5TH. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS THU/THU
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
04.00Z MODELS MAINTAIN A RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS AS THE ROCKIES
TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF
EARLIER MODELS WITH THE TROUGH AT 00Z FRI...WITH A BIT MORE POSITIVE
TILT/SHEARING OF THE LEAD ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH. FROM
THIS POINT...GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS ENERGY/TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE
QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. CONSENSUS NOW
INCLUDES SOME WEAK/TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRI...AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM/COLD CORE
TROUGHING TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THE RATHER
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THU THRU FRI NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
GOOD SIDE.
SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THRU 00Z FRI DELAYS
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER FORCING/LIFT WITH IT MORE INTO THE THU
AFTERNOON HOURS. PW VALUES STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1 INCH
RANGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-700MB TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WITH THE MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS/SHEARED
VORTICITY TRENDS WEAKER AS IT APPROACHES/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG STILL EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE SFC-850MB FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOWERED SHRA CHANCES THU MORNING...WITH INCREASING SHRA CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON...THEN 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES THU EVENING.
CONTINUED THE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER OVERALL FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN
PRECIP AS A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AMOUNT THU/THU NIGHT NOW LOOKING TO
BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...MORE IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH RANGE. SHARPER SFC-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE SPELLS A QUICKER
END TO THE PRECIP LATER THU NIGHT AND TRENDED RAIN CHANCES AFTER 09Z
TO 20-40 PERCENT MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/
COOLER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRI UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS BY FRI
AFTERNOON...925MB TEMPS ONLY LOOKING TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV. AFTER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...FRIDAY WILL FEEL COLD. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES FRI NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS LOOKING TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. MAY YET
NEED A SMALL SHRA/SHSN CHANCE FRI NIGHT WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE 850-700MB COLD POOL. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LIFT INDICATED AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT DRY.
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FRI
NIGHT TROUGH TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SAT MORNING...THEN
RISING HGTS/RIDING ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT
THRU SUN. IMPROVING SIGNAL/CONSISTENCY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PATTERN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AS IT COMES THRU THE ROCKIES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-
7 PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
COOLEST OF THE 925MB AIRMASS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SAT. SFC
RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLED THRU MUCH OF SAT NIGHT. SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUE TO
TREND AS THE COOLER PERIODS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE. TEMPS TREND
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN THRU TUE...MORE AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL
VS. 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IMPROVING SIGNAL
FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUN
NIGHT/MON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PROGS REMAIN SCANT WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SMALL CONSENSUS SHRA CHANCES MON INTO TUE OKAY
FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE AND ANY LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SAT-TUE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF A DRY/SUNNY TREND IS
MORE CORRECT FOR TUE THE CONSENSUS HIGHS ON DAY 7 MAY BE SOME 5F TOO
COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES
SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS
THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE
TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW
THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF
THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO
2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND
THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE DRIZZLE FORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...STRATUS EROSION RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. RAP
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS SHOWING THE MIX OUT OF THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL SO
EXPECT THIS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS
BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING
BACK INTO SRN WI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOLDING
OFF ON SHRA UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.
PC
&&
.MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGE FROM 08Z THIS MORNING SHOWED NEARSHORE
LAKE SFC WATERS HAVE COOLED MOSTLY INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH
OF OZAUKEE/MILWAUKEE COUNTY LINE...AND INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE NORTH.
THESE COOL LAKE TEMPS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH WARM SFC DEWPTS TO
CAUSE MORE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE EJECTING
SOUTHWEST JET MAX IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SECOND
JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE 925/850 MB WINDS ARE WEAK TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT
INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE 0706Z VIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SHOWS THE STRATUS
DISTRIBUTION VERY WELL. DUE TO THE SHALLOW THICKNESS OF THE
STRATUS...THE CITY LIGHTS ARE SHINING THROUGH. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE.
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS SLOW...BUT IS EXPANDING. THE GOES CLOUD
THICKNESS ALSO SHOWS THE STRATUS VS FOG DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT
VERY WELL. WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE DENSE...IT APPEARS VISIBILITIES
IN MOST AREAS RISE A LITTLE AS THE STRATUS FORMS. THEREFORE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS MOMENT.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS
WILL SLOW WARMING.
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH...SO ANY LAKE
COOLING WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH INLAND. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
GFS IS NOW SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR TO THE NAM. ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO KEPT PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THUS...LOWERED GUSTS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW LEVELS IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A POTENT
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS IS STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE MODELS HINTING AT WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS PARTS
OF THE WEST AND SOUTH IN A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS WE CAN GET A FAST MOVING LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...THAT BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE INFORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HERE...AND IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING COLDER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION...ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY LOWER END POPS FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND QPF.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIFR CIGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS
IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
MARINE...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER VIRS DAY/NIGHT SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE ATTM. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE EJECTING
SOUTHWEST JET MAX IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SECOND
JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE 925/850 MB WINDS ARE WEAK TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT
INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE 0706Z VIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SHOWS THE STRATUS
DISTRIBUTION VERY WELL. DUE TO THE SHALLOW THICKNESS OF THE
STRATUS...THE CITY LIGHTS ARE SHINING THROUGH. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE.
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS SLOW...BUT IS EXPANDING. THE GOES CLOUD
THICKNESS ALSO SHOWS THE STRATUS VS FOG DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT
VERY WELL. WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE DENSE...IT APPEARS VISIBILITIES
IN MOST AREAS RISE A LITTLE AS THE STRATUS FORMS. THEREFORE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS MOMENT.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS
WILL SLOW WARMING.
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH...SO ANY LAKE
COOLING WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH INLAND. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY
TONIGHT.
.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
GFS IS NOW SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR TO THE NAM. ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO KEPT PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THUS...LOWERED GUSTS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW LEVELS IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A POTENT
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS IS STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE MODELS HINTING AT WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS PARTS
OF THE WEST AND SOUTH IN A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS WE CAN GET A FAST MOVING LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...THAT BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE INFORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HERE...AND IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING COLDER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION...ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY LOWER END POPS FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND QPF.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIFR CIGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS
IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER VIRS DAY/NIGHT SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE ATTM. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PER THE 21Z SREF LOW
CIGS PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND THE IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
KMSN AROUND 07Z...AND KUES AROUND 08Z. MORE UNCERTAINTY AT KENW
AND KMKE SO ONLY HAVE SCT IFR CIGS THERE. MOST OF SRN WI WILL SEE
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PUT IN AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
WILL TAKE UNTIL MID-MORNING FOR THE CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS MVFR FOG CHANCES BACK IN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER 04Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
UPDATE...
FOCUS REMAINS ON FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW STRATUS OVER IL...ASSOCIATED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR...DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO SRN WISCONSIN PER RAP AND
SPC FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS BRINGING
RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO PLAY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NARROWING
..WITH MONROE AND JANESVILLE BELOW 6 MILES AT 02Z AND OTHER SITES
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY 2 DEGREES.
THE 21Z SREF FORECASTS ARE NOW SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITIES...70
TO 80 PCT..OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
FOND DU LAC...SLINGER...HARTLAND TO ELKHORN LINE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. 01Z HRRR EVEN LOWER WITH VSBYS ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPS HOLDING UP IN EASTERN SITES NEAR THE LAKE...KEEPING DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH FOR EVEN THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
GUIDANCE FROM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP BY 03Z...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE WESTERN CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOWEST VSBYS. WILL SEE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS...BUT RIGHT
NOW DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG
THAT WILL BE IN PLAY FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...UPDATED
LATEST SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS
EARLIER RUN. HIGHER DEW POINT AIR STRUGGLES TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI
ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. SREF CLOUD
PROBABILITY OF CIG LESS THAN 3K FT ALSO KEEPING BETTER CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BRING MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG AROUND/JUST AFTER
09Z...BUT KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS WITH SCT IFR. WILL MONITOR BAND
OF IFR STRATUS IN CENTRAL IL THAT APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING TO THE
NW BUT IS NOT EXPANDING AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN POINT OF FOCUS TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL
TRANSLATE NORTH INTO S WI. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE PROGGING DEWPTS
INTO THE LOWER 50S BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
12Z WED.
BROKEN SKY COVER IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SCATTERED
SKIES DURING THE DAY WED...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 925MB TEMPS ARE STILL VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 14 AND 17C. SO DROPPED HIGHS FOR WED.
INTO THE MID 60S DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS S WI AS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO WEST...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST MN. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT ONE THAT IS
LIKELY TO BE MOIST ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN EVER EXPANDING AND
UNPREDICTABLE LOWER STRATUS DECK. TIMING OF THE FIRST CHANCES OF
RAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON AFTER
MID DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE DETAILS HAVEN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF SPINNING
OUT OF SRN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE IT/S EAST THEN NORTHEAST PROGRESS THIS WEEK...KICKING
OUT A VERY INTENSE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY. THAT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING PRECIP FIELD OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PW/S WILL BE ABOUT 1-1.3 INCHES AND THE
DEEP LAYER FORCING/UVV REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY CENTERED
AROUND 04-08Z FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT...SO THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM HAS
PICKED UP AND THE RAIN MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR THE EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING AND VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE 50S...ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER DECENT FALL
WEEKEND AROUND HERE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO COME IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT IN THIS OPEN WAVE. THE GFS IS
FASTER...BRINGING CHANCES IN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF DELAYS THOSE CHANCES UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THEY BOTH SPIN UP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ISN/T MUCH AGREEMENT IN
TIMING/SHAPE/INTENSITY/TRACK...SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TONIGHT UNTIL A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS COULD REACH INTO THE IFR
CRITERIA AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS. SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO S WI. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR AND UPPER
IFR CATEGORIES FOR SOME TAF SITES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS
RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT
BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED.
SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT
IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE
THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND
COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS
FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB
PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY
COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS
DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD
BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A
VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS
SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE
STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH
DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY
DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX
WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW
FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE
FG/ST THAT DEVELOPS TNGT. THUS FAR...FG HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
LAKESHORE AREAS. SOME FOG MAY FORM FARTHER INLAND LATER
TNGT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING
OUT OF HAND...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. MEANWHILE...RAPIDLY EXPANDING
AREA OF FG/ST WAS RACING NWD ACRS IL...AND JUST ABOUT TO ENTER SRN
WI. EXTRAP WOULD BRING THAT INTO THE C/E-C TAF SITES BTWN 08Z AND
11Z. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO GET RID OF THAT TOMORROW...THOUGH IT
WL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1008 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED. FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH EVEN WESTERN NEBRASKA SEEING SOME SNOWFALL
AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. NOTED
THAT THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE LLVL
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NE COLORADO ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS AS QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TREND HIGHER DUE TO POTENTIAL
HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOWLEVELS TO
LOWER BETWEEN 7000 TO 7500 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
TOWARDS 5500 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. SNOWLEVELS MAY DROP AS LOW AS
3500-4000 FEET ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY ON THE GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE NEEDED IS TO INCREASE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY SINCE THE LLVL WIND
DIRECTION IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AROUND THE
LARAMIE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A VIGOROUS/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO CENTRAL
WY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD PER THE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST TODAY
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 130-140
KNOT H25 JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN NE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 03Z THU. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL YIELD
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BANDING. WE MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF ONE INCH PER HOUR GIVEN NEGATIVE EPVS AND WEAK LLVL CAPE APPARENT
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL DYNAMIC/MESOSCALE
SETUP LENDS CREDENCE TO STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH FROM THE SUMMIT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WE CONTINUE TO
SEE BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HERE...SO NOW THE
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGH MTNS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WY. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AFTER 18Z BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THINK THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY 00Z ABOVE 7K FEET...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF OUR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE HERE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO WITH RAIN/MELTING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL QUITE
TREACHEROUS. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE I-
80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WE ALSO ADDED THE CENTRAL
LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY MAY SEE
AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER AS WELL. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WERE PLACED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AS THE 06Z NAM STILL SUGGESTS SOME THREAT
FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IN CHEYENNE. DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS INTO
FAR EASTERN WY AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH. DO
NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY AS EVEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
DO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WELL BELOW FREEZING AT -5 TO -7C. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH MAINLY TEMPERATURES.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THINKING IS THAT BY NOON TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. 700MB WINDS BEGIN
PICKING UP THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. GFS 700MB
WINDS OF 45-50KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. LATEST WRKHGT
GUIDANCE SHOWING 850/700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS
INCREASING TO 40/45MTRS RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD HAVE SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID NOT INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST YET...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOKS AFTER WE
SEE WHAT ACCUMULATIONS WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED/CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE. PROBABLY OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -12C ACROSS OUT
NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS.
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S EAST. DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO +4 TO +5C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA.
GETTING CLOSE TO ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT FOR SUNDAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB
HEIGHT GRADIENTS GETTING CLOSE TO 60MTRS SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE DO HAVE WIND HEADLINES OUT FOR THAT TIME.
BEGIN TO SEE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST OF
THE PRECIP THOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
CONDITIONS ARE COMING DOWN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 11Z. HRRR PICKED THIS UP WELL AND SPREADS IT
SOUTH TO KAIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINK KCDR AND KAIA WILL STAY
DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME. COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS RAIN TURNS OVER TO SNOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ106-116-117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ107-110-115-118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
417 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A VIGOROUS/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO CENTRAL
WY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD PER THE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST TODAY
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 130-140
KNOT H25 JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN NE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 03Z THU. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL YIELD
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BANDING. WE MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF ONE INCH PER HOUR GIVEN NEGATIVE EPVS AND WEAK LLVL CAPE APPARENT
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL DYNAMIC/MESOSCALE
SETUP LENDS CREDENCE TO STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH FROM THE SUMMIT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WE CONTINUE TO
SEE BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HERE...SO NOW THE
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGH MTNS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WY. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AFTER 18Z BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THINK THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY 00Z ABOVE 7K FEET...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF OUR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE HERE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO WITH RAIN/MELTING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL QUITE
TREACHEROUS. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE I-
80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WE ALSO ADDED THE CENTRAL
LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY MAY SEE
AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER AS WELL. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WERE PLACED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AS THE 06Z NAM STILL SUGGESTS SOME THREAT
FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IN CHEYENNE. DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS INTO
FAR EASTERN WY AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH. DO
NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY AS EVEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
DO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WELL BELOW FREEZING AT -5 TO -7C. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH MAINLY TEMPERATURES.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THINKING IS THAT BY NOON TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. 700MB WINDS BEGIN
PICKING UP THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. GFS 700MB
WINDS OF 45-50KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. LATEST WRKHGT
GUIDANCE SHOWING 850/700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS
INCREASING TO 40/45MTRS RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD HAVE SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID NOT INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST YET...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOKS AFTER WE
SEE WHAT ACCUMULATIONS WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED/CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE. PROBABLY OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -12C ACROSS OUT
NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS.
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S EAST. DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO +4 TO +5C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA.
GETTING CLOSE TO ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT FOR SUNDAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB
HEIGHT GRADIENTS GETTING CLOSE TO 60MTRS SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE DO HAVE WIND HEADLINES OUT FOR THAT TIME.
BEGIN TO SEE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST OF
THE PRECIP THOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
CONDITIONS ARE COMING DOWN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 11Z. HRRR PICKED THIS UP WELL AND SPREADS IT
SOUTH TO KAIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINK KCDR AND KAIA WILL STAY
DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME. COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS RAIN TURNS OVER TO SNOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ106-116-117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ107-110-115-118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
413 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A
CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT
BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE
OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.
FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF
WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD
APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH
MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850
TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT
INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE
AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT DURING THE MORNING WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW
PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND
BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME GUSTY
TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING
VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN
SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME RECORDS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER
6TH...
ALBANY NY: 72 DEGREES 1948
DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALL NY: 70 DEGREES 2005
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 73 DEGREES 1978
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
402 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A
CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT
BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE
OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.
FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF
WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD
APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH
MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850
TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT
INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE
AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
EXCEPTING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE MORNING WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN
SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
311 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN
IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS
THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY
EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD.
PREV DISC...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN
850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM.
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN
KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5
TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS
WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT
COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.
KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
EXCEPTING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE MORNING WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
(0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN
IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS
THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY
EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD.
PREV DISC...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN
850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM.
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN
KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5
TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS
WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT
COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.
KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. EXCEPT WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. A LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH
THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
(0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN
IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS
THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY
EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD.
PREV DISC...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN
850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM.
ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN
KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5
TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS
WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT
COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.
KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE ONSET OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO FORCING REMAINING WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS
TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z-06Z...WITH KPOU/KPSF EXPECTED
TO BE THE FIRST SITES TO SEE FOG/STRATUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
FOG/STRATUS MAY START TO BREAK UP IN THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING FOR KPOU/KPSF.
MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THE AFTN HOURS WITH BKN CIGS AT 4-9
KFT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH
WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO SCT NATURE OF THE
PRECIP. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG.
SAT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
(0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER SMALL MIXED LAYER ABOUT
200 FT OFF THE GROUND HOLDING FIRM UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE DENSE FOG. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE MIXED LAYER MAY
FINALLY GIVE WAY IN THE 5AM-8AM TIME FRAME...SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FOG EVENT COULD STILL UNFOLD LATER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME UNEXPECTED CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF CHARLESTON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES. THIS MAY ENHANCE
THE RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION IN THIS AREA IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT
FILL BACK IN. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE STATEMENTS AND/OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TODAY...IT WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY WARM DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS
THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WHICH WILL HELP PROPEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER-
MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THESE VALUES
WILL BE VERY NEAR THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND THROUGH ABOUT
MID- MORNING DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM STRATUS AND
FOG...BUT THERMAL RISES SHOULD ACCELERATE BY LATE MORNING AS THE
FOG AND STRATUS LIFT AND THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE PACKAGES SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS
COULD POP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME
MID- LEVEL POOLING OF HIGHER THETA AIR COULD OCCUR...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO VERIFYING IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL SUPPORT A RATHER
WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH LOWS
ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW
MID 60S WELL INLAND AND A FEW LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES. THESE
VALUES WILL CHALLENGE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM RECORDS AT ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES. MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN AREAS BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INCREASING WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS THE RISK FOR FOG COULD BE LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH STRATUS LIKELY BECOMING THE DOMINATE MODE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE WINDS
ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. WILL MAINTAIN
PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG QUALIFIERS AS DELINEATED IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE
TO OR EVEN REACH RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CLEAR EACH MORNING. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR RECORD HIGHS.
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY.
LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AS WINDS COULD EXCEED 20 KT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND MOVES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THAT
IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING
TO DRYING CONDITIONS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS...LIKELY
DROPPING TO AT LEAST ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND POSSIBLY AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SMALL MIXED LAYER IN PLACE
FROM THE GROUND TO ABOUT 200 FT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
THIS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS FROM EVOLVING INTO DENSE FOG. HAVE
CAPPED VSBYS AT 2SM AT KCHS AND 1SM AT KSAV FOR NOW. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV SATURDAY MORNING DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG. RESTRICTIONS RESULTING FROM SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. A LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KT. SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD
ALONG THE BEACHES AND MOVES INLAND...BUT SHOULD ONLY SEE 5-10 KT
AT BEST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 10 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 FT...RANGING FROM 1-2 FT NEARSHORE
WATERS...EXCEPT 2-3 FT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WITH A
SOLID 3 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
LAND/SEA DIFFERENTIALS ARE SUCH THAT SEA FOG WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS TO PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...EXTENDING DOWN TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LEADING TO RISING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. EXPECT A STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZE WITH
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BEYOND 10 NM OUT. GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 374. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH GOOD FETCH OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT
NEAR 20 NM OUT AND IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE BEYOND 40 NM. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO EASE. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO TREND DOWNWARD DUE
TO THE LONG FETCH OFFSHORE. AT MINIMUM...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GALE
HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIDES MAY RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR SALT WATER
FLOODING NEAR THE COAST. BEACH EROSION ALSO APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 6...
KCHS...87 SET IN 2003.
KCXM...81 SET IN 2003.
KSAV...85 SET IN 2003.
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 7...
KCHS...84 SET IN 1986.
KCXM...82 SET IN 1922.
KSAV...86 SET IN 1986.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7...
KCHS...68 SET IN 2003.
KCXM...70 SET IN 2003.
KSAV...68 SET IN 2003.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
H5 PATTERN SHOW LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS FALLEN
HEIGHTS AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN CHANGES FOR THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST...SEE BELOW FOR THOSE DISCUSSIONS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA THAT HAS
HELPED TO WEAKEN THE PERSISTENT WEDGE PATTERN THAT HAS ENVELOPED
THE CWA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND FOG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THE CLOUD DECK IS REDEVELOPING AND LOWERING ONCE AGAIN WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WE CAN EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG SOME LOCALLY DENSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT SHOWS NO POPS FROM THE GFS BUT NAM DOES KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF TRACE TO .01
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO WILL FAVOR THE GFS AND KEEPS POPS OUT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN LEVEL RIDGE WILL LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
THEN APPROACHING THE UPSTATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS
WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF POPS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATE
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS REACHING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...LEANING
TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...IS LOOKS LIKE AN IN-SITU
WEDGE DEVELOPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE INDICATED HIGHER POPS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH VSBYS AND
CIGS CONTINUING TO LOWER. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
SUNRISE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVED DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR...HOWEVER EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
15Z...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
WEDGE CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW AREA RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA
EASTMAN WHERE MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES AND FOR LAKE WATEREE. A
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT COLUMBIA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1213 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO
START OFF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE COULD THEN SHIFT OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER SMALL MIXED LAYER ABOUT 200 FT OFF THE
GROUND HOLDING FIRM UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW MORNINGS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER STRATUS BUILD DOWN
WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE MIXED LAYER MAY FINALLY GIVE WAY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT COULD UNFOLD
LATER THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG AND MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS AND/OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PRETTY POTENT COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR. COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE TO OR
EVEN REACH RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICK THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CLEAR EACH MORNING. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR RECORD HIGHS.
LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AS WINDS COULD EXCEED 20 KT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. SOME
QUESTIONS COME ABOUT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS INSIST
THAT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...PERHAPS KEEPING IT JUST SOUTH AND OFFSHORE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BY
WEDNESDAY...DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN INTO THE LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS...LIKELY
DROPPING TO AT LEAST ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND POSSIBLY AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SMALL MIXED LAYER IN PLACE
FROM THE GROUND TO ABOUT 200 FT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER
THIS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS FROM EVOLVING INTO DENSE FOG. HAVE
CAPPED VSBYS AT 2SM AT KCHS AND 1SM AT KSAV FOR NOW. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY
15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND THEN WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE. COVERAGE/IMPACTS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THUS A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT WARRANTED WITHIN THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TRANSLATE TO WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT SC WATERS AND LESS THAN 15 KT
GA WATERS...MAINLY FROM THE E/NE VEERING TOWARD THE E/SE LATE.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND AND
DOMINATED BY A 7-8 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SEA FOG ALONG THE COOLER
COAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO ABOUT 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM
AND 10 FT BEYOND 40 NM. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP PUSH TIDE LEVELS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION NEAR THE COAST. BEACH EROSION ALSO
APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 6...
KCHS...87 SET IN 2003
KCXM...81 SET IN 2003
KSAV...85 SET IN 2003
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 7...
KCHS...84 SET IN 1986
KCXM...82 SET IN 1922
KSAV...86 SET IN 1986
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1131 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front is making steady progress toward western IL, and
should reach near the IL river valley by 07z. Lightning in precip along
the cold front has been steadily diminishing as the evening has
progressed. While thunder may be quite limited during FROPA, we
could still see some updrafts tap into the 60-70kt of 0-6km wind
shear, creating some minor tree damage at times. Will monitor any
fast moving storm segments for short term wind damage concerns.
The speed of the front should push precip into Indiana by sunrise
on Friday. Made some minor adjustments to the PoP grids to match
current timing trends, but little change occurred to the point and
click/worded forecast. Updated info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of
showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just
northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into
north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms
are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some
of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into
central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main
convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over
east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should
fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting
this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening
and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the
convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots).
Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms
from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off
in the wake of the convective line.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning
which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region
for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively
cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve
experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s
will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.
When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly
winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and
Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will
eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of
pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on
timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the
system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system
with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep
pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS
bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the
models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur.
However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into
better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known;
which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just
above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid
50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Potential for convection near our terminal sites tonight is quite
low. Lightning along the cold front has almost completely ended.
Can`t rule out a few strikes just ahead of FROPA, but overall,
main concern will be the wind. Gradient winds have been gusting to
35kt ahead of the front. Several downdrafts with collapsing storm
towers could produce some brief strong gusts as well. Behind the
front, west winds will gust to 25 kt for several hours, before
winds subside after sunrise.
PIA, BMI and CMI cloud heights are oscillating between IFR and
MVFR around 1K ft. Clouds have lifted to VFR for SPI and DEC.
Overall trend looks to be MVFR developing as the main line/front
approaches, with IFR possible for short periods of time. MVFR clouds
may hold on through mid morning, but sunny skies appear likely by
mid-day.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING FOR ALL AREAS...AND
TO WORK IN LATEST TEMP TRENDS FROM THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
TRENDED TO MORE LIGHTER...WHICH IS GOING TO AMPLIFY THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS...HAVE LEFT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTACT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA
BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH
TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY
5-10F.
FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM
ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS
ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR
ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND
LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A
LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED
LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN
BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. WINDS WNW AROUND 5-10KTS THRU 17Z THEN
SHIFTING BETWEEN NE-NW FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Updated for 06z TAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Updated for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The HRRR is still trying to figure out the convective evolution
tonight. Earlier it appeared a consensus was building for the
current area of showers to dissipate as it moved through southern
Illinois this evening, and then the main QLCS activity would move
back into the area around midnight. The most recent runs are a
bit more diverse, building more intense convection northeast
through the boot heel 03-06Z and then through west Kentucky mostly
by 09Z. This run is showing a more signifant LEWP structure than
we have seen before. So this is actually an escalation from what
we have been expecting.
The bottom line is that the larger-scale models continue to
develop plenty of low-level shear and most unstable CAPE to
support severe weather in the form of damaging winds and tornadoes
as the main line moves through the region late this evening and
overnight. There still is the potential for the system to produce
little or no lightning.
Most of the overnight activity will be east southeast of the area
by 12Z. There is a small chance of showers streaming east
northeast along the Tennessee border through Friday night, as a
larger-scale trough approaches the area. Will keep a small pop
down there to handle this possibility.
Generally trended toward the warm side guidance for highs and lows
through Friday night, then toward the cool side Saturday through
Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Confidence is medium but a bit better than previous runs until mid
to late next week then timing confidence is very low.
The models now are in good agreement of a cut off low...caught up in
a weak perturbation...will pass just our northwest. As it passes it
pulls gulf moisture to its southeast over the pah fa and create
enough lift to produce some showers at least over the southeast
portion Monday. Where the models differ is the exact path of the
low. Some would bring it through the fa while others keep farther to
northwest. They also differ on the western extent of the rain. They
do however agree the closed low will open up and accelerate out of
the area. The models are in fair agreement of spotty waa type
showers in the lows wake. These would be low confidence and would
yield very little rain or coverage if they do occur...so most areas
dry until the next system arrives. The models continue to be around
24 hours apart on the next system. Confidence in another system is
fair but timing of system is low. Right now the GFS is the fastest
with the system arriving around 6z Wed. The DGEX is in the middle
with arrival Wed aftn. Finally the ECMWF brings it in Thursday
around 12z. Some elevated instability was indicated with K index
values around 35. Surface based instability is not indicated at this
time. Will likely hold off introduction of thunder unless
collaboration calls for it and then it would only be isolated at
best. Will hold off and see what the extended init yields and use
collaboration to try and present a reasonable solution at this
juncture. Temperatures will start out below normal and slowly warm
to near normal next week that is until the mid to late week system
moves through then back below normal expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Large rain shield with embedded thunder has engulfed the area late
this evening. Terminals will see MVFR/low VFR cigs along with
IFR/MVFR vsbys. Cigs will lower more as the rain comes to an end.
Low MVFR and possibly some IFR cigs will be around into the
morning hrs. Strong clearing still on track to progress across the
region during the mid to late morning hrs. Northwest winds around
10 kts will be seen tmrw as high pressure builds in.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...SP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL
ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS
FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40
MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER
TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL
AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN
PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I
KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION
IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A
STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD
OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW
WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MVFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GO WEST AFTER 12Z AND GUST OVER 25
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NEWD
INTO ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND
925MB...MORNING STRATUS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER ONCE
IT DOES...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC...NEARING 80 DEGREES IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEES SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 PM THURSDAY...
SATELLITE AND METARS STILL INDICATING STRATUS COVERING A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES)...WITH CIGS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. MEANWHILE...
OBS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED SFC AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS ARE LOCATED (SUCH AS AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRIANGLE). LATEST HRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND AREAS OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN UPDATE TO TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL
BE TO ADD FOG INTO OUR WEATHER GRID. OTHERWISE...BASED ON CURRENT
DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED FOG AND CLOUDS...TEMPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL FALL ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW (LOWS
FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISPERSE MORE QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...SHEARING
THE FRONT AND ALIGNING IT IN A BACKDOOR-ISH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCES ~10 METERS RISE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO
A 2-3 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS...SUPPORTING A MAX TEMP FORECAST OF 75
WEST TO 80 EAST.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AWAITING A
PUSH FROM A SECOND STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD EAST
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE EVEN MILDER...IN THE MID 60S.
SATURDAY...COMING SOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 PM THURSDAY...
SATELLITE AND METARS STILL INDICATING STRATUS COVERING A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES)...WITH CIGS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. MEANWHILE...
OBS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED SFC AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS ARE LOCATED (SUCH AS AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRIANGLE). LATEST HRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND AREAS OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN UPDATE TO TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL
BE TO ADD FOG INTO OUR WEATHER GRID. OTHERWISE...BASED ON CURRENT
DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED FOG AND CLOUDS...TEMPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL FALL ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW (LOWS
FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISPERSE MORE QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...SHEARING
THE FRONT AND ALIGNING IT IN A BACKDOOR-ISH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCES ~10 METERS RISE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO
A 2-3 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS...SUPPORTING A MAX TEMP FORECAST OF 75
WEST TO 80 EAST.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AWAITING A
PUSH FROM A SECOND STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD EAST
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE EVEN MILDER...IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BISECTING THE COUNTRY... WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH INTO SC/GA SATURDAY
NIGHT....WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BECOME
REINVIGORATED BY THE APPROACH OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 180KT JET OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE FROPA GIVEN PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL INTO EASTERN CANADA
AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE NAM IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WHICH SHOW THE
FRONT SURGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS NEAR 80 IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH WITH TIME ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
MORE ELEVATED AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS. WILL
ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND ANY THREAT OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KTS...WOULD BE GREATEST.
TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SATURDAY AS DECENT WARMING IS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO START TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
YIELDS 66-80...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE POSSIBLE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT DEPICTED IN THE NAM. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE STRATIFORM AND
COMES TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS DROPS OFF PRETTY DRAMATICALLY FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WETTER AND COOLER
PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT ENERGY ON THE TAIL END OF THIS WEEKENDS SHORTWAVE WILL
BREAK OFF AND THEN MAKE A SLOW JAUNT NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS IT
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A MORE OPEN WAVE.
GIVEN THAT THE UPPER WAVE IS SO FAR TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
NOT BE VERY STRONG...SO WOULD LEAN MORE TO THE GFS...WITH LIGHTER
AND MORE BRIEF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...CAD SHOULD
DEVELOP AND TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
FINALLY BREAK BACK OUT LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. BETTER
THAN 150 METER HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER NORTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND BETTER THAN 250 METER HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST FOR FRI OVER EASTERN
CANADA WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLOUDY AND TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH THIS
EVENING. AREA SHOULD REMAINS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME BREAKS
IN THE SOUTH. WILL INCREASE TEMPS NORTH AND DECREASE SOME SOUTH.
TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS DEEPENED
ABOUT 10 MB IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. RAP MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED LOWER LAYER TO BECOME
MORE ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AROUND 900 HPA. WINDS
AROUND 900 HPA DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25
TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
INCREASE WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE
E/NE...AS EXPECTED. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE WHAT
OCCURS CLOSER TO SUNSET (IF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE
ROADS)...ALTHOUGH PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE WAY DOWN BY THEN WITH
ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF
BAUDETTE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NOT
SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONTINUED TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA (NEAR THE SD
BORDER)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. STRONGEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST NE OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE BAUDETTE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY...WITH
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S SAT MORNING (IF WE CAN CLEAR).
MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME
HIGHS..ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. A SW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY TUESDAY...AND A SFC LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE WY ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...BRINING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR THOSE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
GROUND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITHOUT A
DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP...ANY SNOW MID NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHORT LIVED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS
DOES SHOW A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER SOME CIGS
WERE 5 HUNDRED FT OR LESS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER WITH CIGS FROM 14 TO 21 HUNDRED FT. VFR CIGS WERE OVER
SOUTHWEST ND BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO MOVING ANY FARTHER EAST ON LATEST
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS. WILL KEEP MOSTLY IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 05Z. A
DRY LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP13
MODELS PUSHES A WIND SHIFT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DRY LINE LATE THIS EVENING...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE KCLL AND
KUTS AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THE MODELS THEN KEEP THE WIND
SHIFT NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE KCXO SITE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCLL AND KUTS
THROUGH 12Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO
AIRPORTS THROUGH 15Z. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SE TX. NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE MID
50S THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE
UPPER 60S BY MORNING. SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AT 800 PM.NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND LOWERED POPS EARLIER IN THE EVENING FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.AT 800 PM...A DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL
LOSE IT`S PUNCH AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT ABUT THE RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INSIOST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF SE TX. 850 MB
MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND AND 850 JET EXTENDS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE. 300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS LIES IN A RRQ.
CAN`T SAY I AM TOO IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE NAM AND RAP INITIALIZED
THIS EVENING BUT THE CONSENSUS FROM ALMOST EVERY MODEL IS THAT THE
DRY LINE WILL EDGE EAST AND SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST
BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL LET THE PREVIOUS FCST RIDE WITH 80 POPS AFTER
06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING
HIGH ON FRIDAY EITHER BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE FRI NITE INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 73 61 66 50 / 80 50 60 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 66 70 54 / 50 50 70 70 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 70 72 59 / 20 40 60 70 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1054 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL BRING NORTH
WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL DROP
CIGS TO MVFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. AT DRT VIS HAS DROPPED TO
MVFR AND IT WILL REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES IN BY AROUND 09Z. CIGS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT AUS AND SAT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
UPDATE... HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORM RISK UNTIL AROUND 9PM WHEN THE DRYLINE AND PSEUDO
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE DECREASED
RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH 8-9PM SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT AND
EXPECTED TRENDS. NEW ZONES AND FORECAST HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED.
AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ADVERTISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GOING
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICS MAY BE TOO HIGH
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR COMPOSITE WITH WEAKENING STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO LET THESE VALUES RIDE FOR NOW
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
PWAT AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SET-UP REVEALS AN OPEN AND
WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH ONLY 40-60 KT H5 FLOW
OVERTOP SOUTHERLY 25 KT 925MB FLOW THAT HAS USHERED IN 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AMOUNTS NEAR 2.1". OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS LITTLE TO NO H5 HEIGHT FALLS HAVE OCCURRED AND MUCH
OF THE FORCING AND DYNAMIC LIFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...BOTH GLOBAL AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR MIDNIGHT PER NWP MASS FIELDS. THE RAP13
REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR SAN ANTONIO INTO FRIO/MEDINA WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE TEXAS TECH
WRF HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL DURING THIS EVENT THUS FAR AND IS
ALSO ON THE LOWER END OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH 1-3
INCHES. THE HRRR REMAINS A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGH OUTLIER AND HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL AT ALL OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED
FOR NOW. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE MIDNIGHT TO 6AM
TIME-FRAME FOR ANY UP-TICK IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE OVERALL
MESOSCALE SET-UP IS NOT IN FAVOR OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN
WEAK TO LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. LOOKING
DOWNSTREAM IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO...THERE IS
LITTLE DISCERNIBLE EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WOULD HELP ENHANCE
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. DESPITE THESE FACTORS AND GIVEN THE NEAR
RECORD PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE PLUS A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IF
STORMS HAVE NOT FIRED BY MIDNIGHT TO 3AM...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWERED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES HAS LED TO A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
TAKE PLACE WEST OF I-35/NORTH OF I-10. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS
IN STORE BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO
NORTHWARD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS TO REMOVE EDWARDS COUNTY AS IT APPEARS THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF EDWARDS COUNTY. WE/LL
STILL MENTION RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW...IT
WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL MENTION A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...WE
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 50-60% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FINALLY BRINGS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS
TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 70 56 65 50 / 90 50 50 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 70 56 65 49 / 80 50 50 60 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 72 58 67 51 / 80 50 50 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 54 64 48 / 90 30 50 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 73 60 67 52 / 40 20 50 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 70 54 65 47 / 90 40 50 60 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 71 58 67 49 / 70 40 50 60 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 57 65 50 / 80 50 50 60 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 74 60 67 51 / 80 50 50 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 71 60 67 52 / 70 50 50 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 73 61 68 53 / 70 50 50 60 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING BACK UP AND THE
GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING WARM
FRONT. GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL BE BASICALLY DRY TONIGHT.
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS BUT DID NOT DRY
THINGS OUT ENTIRELY ALL AREAS IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS
SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING COAST AND SOUTH PART AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST BUT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER INLAND.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ONTO THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE INTERIOR SATURDAY FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN ALL
AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
SUB-ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ABOVE PASS LEVELS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON
SUNDAY FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THE NEXT PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND WETTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW WHICH
LEANS TOWARD CLIMO. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
GIVEN THE DISPARITIES IN THE MODELS THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS
UNCLEAR. 33
&&
.AVIATION...THE AIR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND STABLE AS A
WARM FRONT REACHES WESTERN WA ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS.
KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...THEN RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.MARINE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHIFT TO LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
WITH PRECIPITATION FROM LAST EVENING NOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND TEMPERATURES. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST.
06.08Z SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION...
ALTHOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD MASS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALL THE WAY BACK
TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BULK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI...SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE FARTHER SOUTH. SOME WESTERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE GIVEN 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +1 TO + 3 CELSIUS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS.
EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE CLOUDS
BREAK-UP...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST AREAS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
FROM 5 TO 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN SHIFTS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEGINNING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BAGGY SHORT-WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WEAK OVERALL FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDES
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...06.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS EASTWARD
EVOLUTION AFTER EJECTING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE WITH A DISTINCT NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT NEVER FULLY PHASE AS THEY CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND DEVELOPS A STRONG CLOSED LOW THAT BARRELS THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER AND
DEVELOPS MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF IS WARMER AND MUCH WETTER. SUPERBLEND POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS MODELS CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
ENOUGH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
ALL RAIN...BUT WITH COLDER VALUES INTO THE 30S AT NIGHT...A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SHRA/ISOLD T HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING CIGS AS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD ACROSS KRST/KLSE.
LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD GO INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON
FRI...GFS WOULD BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS SIMILAR
TO THE RAP. GOING TO LEAN ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...HOLDING
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN HOW THE CLOUD TRENDS
WILL PLAY OUT /COMPARED TO EARLIER/. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CIG FORECAST. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOOKS TO BRING BACK MORE
CIGS...BUT THESE LOOK VFR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN
BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST
24-36 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN
ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST
WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS.
A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS
FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE.
THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A
STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.
COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES
WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM
SPELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING
THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW
RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH.
PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF
WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING
WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SHRA/ISOLD T HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING CIGS AS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD ACROSS KRST/KLSE.
LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD GO INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON
FRI...GFS WOULD BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS SIMILAR
TO THE RAP. GOING TO LEAN ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...HOLDING
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN HOW THE CLOUD TRENDS
WILL PLAY OUT /COMPARED TO EARLIER/. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CIG FORECAST. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOOKS TO BRING BACK MORE
CIGS...BUT THESE LOOK VFR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A
CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING
AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT
BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE
OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE.
FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF
WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD
APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH
MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850
TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT
INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE
AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRATUS WILL LIFT DURING THE MORNING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND
WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES
GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH
VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH
SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN
SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME RECORDS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER
6TH...
ALBANY NY: 72 DEGREES 1948
DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALL NY: 70 DEGREES 2005
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 73 DEGREES 1978
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Cold front has now cleared the far southeast CWA and temperatures
there are falling through the 50s. Remainder of the CWA starting
to recover a bit, though temperatures were in the mid-upper 40s.
Still quite a bit of high clouds streaming over southeast
Illinois, though these are starting to shift eastward.
Main concern for the rest of today is with the stratocumulus deck
that is dropping south from northern Illinois. Leading edge of
this starting to spread across areas northwest and north of
Peoria. Latest HRRR drops the clouds about as far south as the
Peoria metro and Bloomington before shifting east early this
afternoon, which is supported by the RAP forecast soundings for
these areas. Soundings further south show more in the way of
scattered clouds at best.
Zones/grids recently updated for these trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Another breezy day is expected today across central and southeast
Illinois. However, it will be notably cooler than yesterday as a
cold front will have passed through the region overnight. Still,
these cooler temperatures will be much closer to normal for early
November than we have seen the past few days. Temperatures are still
hanging in the 60s in the far east, where FROPA has not occurred
yet, but expect temperatures in this area to fall once the front
arrives and struggle to rise much today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
1032 mb high pressure over the Western States will settle east
into IL overnight Saturday night and across the Ohio river valley
and mid Atlantic States Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures
to the area this weekend with highs in the 50s and lows of 35-40F
tonight and 30-35F Saturday night and Sunday night with a frost and
even a freeze likely. A northern stream short wave trof will quickly
pivot southeast across central IL Saturday morning and bring a
period of clouds and pass through dry. Otherwise a fair amount of
sunshine expected this weekend and into Monday.
A southern stream short wave will lift ne across the Southeast
States Mon and Monday night with its qpf staying southeast of IL
though southeast IL may see more clouds. Temperatures to gradually
modify into the middle of next week with southerly flow around high
pressure over southern New England Tue. Highs reach the lower 60s
Tue/Wed with southeast IL in the mid 60s on Wed. 00Z models still
differ with track of low pressure system ejecting ne from strong
upper level trof over the Rockies during middle of next week. GFS
models remains the faster with ECMWF model slowest and GEM model in
between. Stayed close to consensus pops from Tue night through Thu
and highest pops being Wed afternoon and Wed night with isolated
thunderstorms possible especially south of I-72 as consensus has
cold front passing east through IL then. Low pressure pulls away
from area Thu night and Friday returning dry and cooler weather
with highs back in the 50s on next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Breezy west to northwest winds are expected across the central
Illinois terminals today in the wake of a strong cold front. The
drier air filtering in behind the front is expected to keep cloud
cover minimal through the 12Z TAF valid time. Winds are expected
to diminish tonight as high pressure begins to build into the
area.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START
TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND CLOUD BASES WILL NOT LIFT MUCH UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.
KMSP...
PRETTY STRAIGHT FOWARD CONDITIONS AT MSP. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW AT 15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSW AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START
TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD STRONG OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW AS ONE
CDFNT DEPARTS AND A SECONDARY DRY CDFNT APPROACHES EARLY ON FRIDAY
AND GRADUALLY PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...JUST CEILINGS IN THE 2000-2500FT AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CEILINGS HEIGHTEN WELL INTO VFR RANGE.
WINDS TO REMAIN WNW IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT LATE.
KMSP...CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 1800 FT THRU THIS
TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CEILINGS COULD DROP TO ARND
1700 FT BY THE MORNING PUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS THINKING
ATTM BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...CEILING TO REMAIN IN
UPPER- RANGE MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY THEN INCREASE TO 5 KFT...AND
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 10 KFT...FRI AFTN AND EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND W 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
935 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL
STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST
OFFSHORE...WITH ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THAT FLOW FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD
KCLT AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IF RAP AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY ALONG WITH HRRR WRF GUIDANCE...THIS RAIN
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. STILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
PROGRESS EAST IN SPACE AND INTENSITY THAT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IS PRUDENT. CONSIDERED A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE TRIAD BUT
THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE AREA OF
RAIN AND EVEN THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TRIAD DRY.
CLOUDS ARE ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST...WITH ALREADY SOME SMALL
CLEAR PATCHES IN THE AREA. MORE TEXTURED CLOUDS WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY CLEARING FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...AND THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS BREAKS OCCURRING BETWEEN
ABOUT 19Z AND 21Z. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AND CLOUD TRENDS THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW
BREAKS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN SPACE AND TIME LIKELY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE....AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...EVEN WITH AN HOUR
OR TWO OF BREAKS TEMPERATURES COULD RISE QUICKLY AND DID NOT CHANGES
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED
TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN/INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). IN FACT IT`S QUITE
POSSIBLE...THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD ON WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CEILINGS
LIFTING TO VFR AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI AOA 18Z...WHILE KEEPING
KGSO AND KINT AT MVFR.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. A STEADY 5 TO 7KT SWLY BREEZE SHOULD DETER FOG...WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF/CBL
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NEWD
INTO ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND
925MB...MORNING STRATUS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER ONCE
IT DOES...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROPEL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC...NEARING 80 DEGREES IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEES SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...
LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). IN FACT IT`S QUITE
POSSIBLE...THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD ON WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CEILINGS
LIFTING TO VFR AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI AOA 18Z...WHILE KEEPING
KGSO AND KINT AT MVFR.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. A STEADY 5 TO 7KT SWLY BREEZE SHOULD DETER FOG...WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE LIGHT FLURRIES/SPRINKLES VS SHOWERS...WITH
P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND RAIN (OR SNOW BECOMING
RAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR) WITHIN AND EAST OF THE VALLEY.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 34 TO 37 RANGE AND ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD
IMMEDIATELY MELT...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATION.
FOR AFTN POPS...DID NOT LIKE THE 12Z NAM (TOO MOIST) NOR RAP (TOO
DRY) AS WE DO SEE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA ON CANADIAN
RADAR. WILL GO GENERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY
NOONTIME...AS WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AGAIN...P-TYPE ON EASTERN SIDE
SHOULD GO TO ALL RAIN SHORTLY PER MORNING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND PLENTY OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTH IN THE
MORNING AND ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COLD BE SOME SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NW...WITH ABOUT
25-30KT TO MIX. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING. IT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS
INTO THE 20S.
ON SATURDAY...WAA BEGINS AT ALL LEVELS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
FOR SAT NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THAN FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND +10C...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT LEAST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NORTH AND
EAST...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
FOR MON THRU THU...PERIOD BEGINS WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW
FOLLOWED BY CONVERGING ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THESE GUIDANCE GENERATE A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OR NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS (SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO). THE SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS DGEX DEPICTS A MORE DIFFUSE AND COL
TYPE UPPER PATTERN AND HAS BEEN DISMISSED FOR THIS ANALYSIS. 850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ON THE POSITIVE SIDE
OFFERING MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S STARTING OUT DROPPING
CLOSER TO AVERAGE MID AND LATE WEEK. THIS REGIME AND TIME OF YEAR
LENDS ITSELF TO MIXED PCPN OR SNOW EVENING THROUGH MORNING PERIODS
WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TODAY ACROSS ALL SITES
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
844 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SYSTEM PASSES
ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND HI-RES NAM THROUGH THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINING A BAND OF SHOWERS. MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON
PROGRESS OF THIS BAND TONIGHT AND WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODELS KEEP SOME MID LEVEL LIFT WHILE SOME LAYERS BELOW DRY
CONSIDERABLY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
AND THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS INDICATES AIRMASS ACROSS REGION
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN ON MONDAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
INCREASING POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES UP FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS BULLISH WITH A
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE EURO
RESTRAINS THE SAME FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. A TAD BIT DIFFICULT
TO GENERATE A GOOD DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL GENERALIZED POPS OVER A PERIOD TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. OVERALL JET REMAINS RATHER
ZONAL WHICH LENDS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS OH AND KY INTO WESTERN WV THIS
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING. RESTRICTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED. DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH AS EKN REMAIN
DECOUPLED THIS MORNING WITH 25 TO 30 KT WIND JUST OFF OF THE
SURFACE...CREATING STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BE CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. SOME
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN...A STRATUS DECK MAY REFORM ON THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...RPY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
923 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PASSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT...TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 923 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR FROM AROUND
800 MB TO AROUND 600 MB WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HINDERING THE CLOUD ADVANCE EAST AND
MIXING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
TOLEDO TO WEST MEMPHIS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE
CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW
AND HRRR BLEND FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WILL THIN WITH
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...AND MIXING FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
CHEW AWAY AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER.
AT 09Z/4AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ORD/CHICAGO AREA
INTO EAST TEXAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAS OUTPACED THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CVG/CINCINNATI TO BNA/NASHVILLE. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT THE SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
(WV COUNTIES INTO FAR WRN VA) BETWEEN NOON-3PM.
THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO
TODAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELD. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SURFACE
FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...SO EVEN IF SHOWERS REACH THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANYTHING ACTUALLY CROSSES INTO THE
PIEDMONT.
FOR TODAY WILL KEEP MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST
CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FOR
TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SHOWERS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ATTM THINK SHOWERS SHOULD
REACH BLF/BLUEFIELD AND LWB/LEWISBURG AREAS BETWEEN NOON-
3PM...THEN INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
4-7PM...SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS BETWEEN 7-10PM. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER PRIOR TO THESE TIME FRAMES...BUT MAIN THREAT
SHOULD AWAIT ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY
SLOW MOVING ANAFRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ADVERTISE THE SAME SOLUTION WITH WAVES
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...
THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHTER ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL TAPER POPS A BIT UP NORTH. EXPECTED QPF DOES NOT
APPEAR TO POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR
WILL BE WORKING FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO EXPECT AN EARLY
HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THEREAFTER. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE COLDER AIR
STARTS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RAPID END TO PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE HINTING AT SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE
RIDGE AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING RESEMBLING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND TAKE UP A
FAMILIAR WEDGE POSITION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US PLEASANT BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ALLOWS ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR LATER ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH QPF EVENT AS
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPLIT WITH
THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING BY BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR
SOUTH AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION
EVOLVES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE
WEDGE SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY...
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WPC
RECOMMENDED USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE
AT THIS TIME FRAME. WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND
WE GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
STRATUS IS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD SCOUR MOISTURE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF
LOW CIGS BY TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS...BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS VCNTY OF KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EAST TO NEAR KBCB/KROA AROUND SUNSET.
CAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY...LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LINGERING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
SCOURS THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE VERY PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS
SATURDAY MORNING...INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS INDICATE RAPID
RETURN OF MOISTURE MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
435 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest
today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except
for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian
Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the
Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as
a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move
into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a
stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front
will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting
in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains.
This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler
temperatures through early next week. The next chance of
widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm
today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west.
Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn
begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the
lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today?
Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly
saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on
keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850
mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with
widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking
through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see
areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at
times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of
drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast
through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof
of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south
as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington
will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve
conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog
over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late
morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday
or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing
potential.
For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to
strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph
over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure
gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will
also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again
primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic
ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not
straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the
850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the
5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t
expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question
is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this
evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to
occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF
hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this
is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically
speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it
bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the
Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition
to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater
ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver
light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with
moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be
possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly
impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway.
Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the
relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high
temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx
Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move
onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and
north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation
will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then
through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will
move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will
lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow
will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and
ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and
by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will
generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception
to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where
their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly
lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some
local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No
accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley
locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from
0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas
to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat
night will actually be several degrees above average given the
extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some
patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours.
Sunday temps will be around average.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the
trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough
will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across
the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By
Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions.
Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings
expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night
through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID.
/Nisbet
Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring
a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a
weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region
being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model
agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the
impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough
in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF
and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the
Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip
from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night
and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the
most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes
in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border
and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a
significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the
earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect
mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough
approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The
lows will range in the 30s. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The forecast confidence will remain quite low for most
sites this morning due to widely varying conditions under a
expansive blanket of low clouds. Confidence is high that most if not
all sites will see at best MVFR cigs this morning at least over the
eastern third of WA into north ID with bases generally no higher
than 015. PUW and GEG will likely see the worst of the conditions
with cigs below 005 and vsbys ranging from 1-3 miles or worse at
times. For MWH and EAT our confidence is even lower since we can`t
see how expansive the low clouds on satellite due to considerable
high clouds however there is patchy fog around both sites according
to nearby obs and webcams. Our confidence of improving conditions
for the afternoon is fairly high for PUW and LWS as low level winds
turn to the S-SE. These improving conditions will gradually spread N-
NW with time however how quick is the question. Its quite possible
MVFR cigs will persist through the entire day with the main
improvement revolving around increased visibilities. For tonight,
the low clouds should ease over most of the sites, with VFR cigs
prevailing. The only exception is for EAT where a incoming cold
front will likely drop cigs into the MVFR category toward morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40
Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50
Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40
Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40
Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40
Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50
Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60
Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10
Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20
Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...THOUGH WITH
PLENTY OF FOG THIS AM. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT
AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND
DURING THE DAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN. UNSETTLED COOL
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE REGION DRY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...GENERALLY NORTH OF
A TILLAMOOK TO BATTLE GROUND LINE. TO SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP
WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY.
BUT...WITH HAVE A PROBLEM. WITH THE CLOUD BREAKS...HAVE HAD FOG FORM
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. GENERALLY THE
VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG RUNNING 1/4 TO 1 MILE...WITH FOG LOCALLY
DENSE WITH VISIBILITY CLOSER TO 1/8 OF A MILE. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
YET...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION THIS AM...WATCH FOR
BIKERS AND PEDESTRIANS...AND BE PREPARED TO STOP SUDDENLY IF NEEDED.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF...PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL NOON TO 2 PM. SO...EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S...SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY
ONLY TOP IN THE LOWER 50S.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT IN KEEP PRECIPITATION WITH THE
INCOMING FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF RAIN N OF LINCOLN CITY FOR TONIGHT. AS FRONT
PUSHES TO COAST...RAIN SHOULD INCREASE ON THE COAST SAT AM AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE NOT LIKE LAST WEEKEND... RAINFALL
STILL MODEST WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH FOR INLAND AREAS WITH GENERALLY 1 TO
2 INCHES FOR COAST MTNS AND S WASH/N ORE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOLD AT 7000 TO 8000 FEET THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL START DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 OR 4500
FT BY SUN AM. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AND WITH SNOW LEVELS
HOLDING NEAR PASS LEVELS...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATE AT AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TRAVELERS OVER CASCADES THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS ON
SUN THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IN THE CASCADES. ROCKEY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
DROP DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WITH POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO
THE PASSES AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS START TO
CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY KEEPING
THE AREA DRY. THIS ALSO CLEARS OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD ALSO HELP
CREATE VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT TROUGH
MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND MAYBE SOME MORE SNOW TO THE PASSES ON THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES...AND CLEARING
SKIES FARTHER SOUTH HAS LED TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE CIGS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 3KFT AND 6KFT ACROSS THE PORTLAND
METRO WILL CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TO FORM BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN UPSTREAM SITES KSLE AND KUAO ARE STILL
OVERCAST AND VFR. WEAK SOUTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR ANY
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE...BUT
THERE MAY ENOUGH OF A WINDOW OF LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO ALLOW LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING MORE SOLIDLY TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS FORMING BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z FRIDAY IF CURRENT CIGS BETWEEN 3KFT AND 6KFT DISSIPATE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW GIVEN THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN
FARTHER SOUTH AT KSLE AND KUAO. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO PEAK LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW GUSTS OF 35 KT
COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COAST...BUT SUSPECT ANY WILL BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
HEADLINES AS IS. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS...WILL ALSO SPREAD A LONGER PERIOD 12 TO 14 FT
WESTERLY SWELL INTO THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT
SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10
NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
305 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest
today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except
for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian
Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the
Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as
a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move
into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a
stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front
will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting
in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains.
This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler
temperatures through early next week. The next chance of
widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm
today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west.
Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn
begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the
lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today?
Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly
saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on
keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850
mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with
widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking
through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see
areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at
times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of
drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast
through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof
of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south
as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington
will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve
conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog
over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late
morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday
or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing
potential.
For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to
strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph
over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure
gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will
also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again
primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic
ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not
straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the
850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the
5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t
expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question
is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this
evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to
occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF
hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this
is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically
speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it
bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the
Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition
to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater
ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver
light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with
moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be
possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly
impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway.
Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the
relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high
temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx
Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move
onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and
north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation
will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then
through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will
move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will
lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow
will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and
ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and
by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will
generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception
to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where
their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly
lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some
local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No
accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley
locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from
0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas
to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat
night will actually be several degrees above average given the
extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some
patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours.
Sunday temps will be around average.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the
trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough
will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across
the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By
Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions.
Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings
expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night
through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID.
/Nisbet
Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring
a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a
weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region
being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model
agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the
impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough
in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF
and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the
Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip
from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night
and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the
most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes
in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border
and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a
significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the
earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect
mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough
approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The
lows will range in the 30s. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low confidence forecast remains, but low level
moisture and a developing south/southeast flow developing is
expected to promote stratus and fog with IFR/MVFR conditions
around the eastern TAF sites, including GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS.
Timing and persistence of fog has least confidence, with transient
mid to high clouds and the potential for stratus to win out.
Either way, MVFR/IFR cigs are expected much of the period. But as
the easterly flow increases, some improvement is projected near
PUW toward 11-13Z. Amendments are likely. Patchier fog is
possible around MWH, but confidence is even lower. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40
Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50
Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40
Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40
Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40
Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50
Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60
Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10
Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20
Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
1256 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND CONTINUED WARMER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK
TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND
FOOTHILLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN THOSE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...COOLER AGAIN WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE COAST...VALLEYS AND
COASTAL SLOPES AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NOT
EVEN A HINT OF ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF IT FAR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE 7.8
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY WERE 2.6 MB AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS
AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS REPORTING NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THESE STRONGER GUSTS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WRF. CONSIDERING THE STRONGER WINDS THAN
ANTICIPATED...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILL
AND PASS/CANYON LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK RIDGE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN WARMING
TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THAT DAY.
THE STILL RELATIVELY COLD AIR MASS...WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES RESULTED IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE HIGH DESERTS
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING BELOW FREEZING
IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE BY A FEW DEG C BY TONIGHT...SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN THE HIGH DESERTS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND AND THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. DEEP MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THE MORNING STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY TO CLEAR MUCH...IF AT ALL...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION.
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN...AND THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS THAN THE WINDS WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDS. HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
WARMING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
061700Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOCAL NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30
KT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT MORNING...THOUGH THESE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH ANY OF THE
TAF SITES...INCLUDING KONT.
&&
.MARINE...
900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CA WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15-25 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FEET MON-TUE...HIGHEST IN THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
LIKELY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING DAY-TIME HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT WILL BE
POOR TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS UNLIKELY TO
BE MET AND THE RECENT RAINS SHOULD HAVE INCREASED FUEL MOISTURES
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AND TURN ONSHORE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SAN DIEGO FOR OCTOBER WAS 7.7 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THAT WAS ONLY THE FOURTH MONTH IN THE HISTORY OF
SAN DIEGO WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR A MONTH WAS 7 OR MORE
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DEPARTURE
FROM AVERAGE MONTH YEAR
+8.2 SEPTEMBER 1984
+7.7 OCTOBER 2015
+7.2 JULY 1984
+7.2 MARCH 2015
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
CLIMATE...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Area of stratocumulus that was inching southward earlier today has
made its southernmost progress generally along I-74, and clouds on
the southern flank are breaking up early this afternoon. Some of
the high clouds over the southeast CWA had thinned out earlier, but
another wave is advancing northeast from the stream of clouds
originating in Texas. While these features will fade some with time,
some more cloudiness will be moving in later this evening with a
shortwave currently moving east from the central Plains. Net effect
will basically be partly cloudy skies over the forecast area through
tonight. Temperatures should be more November-like as opposed to the
unusually mild lows the last few nights, with most areas dipping
into the mid-upper 30s. South of I-70, the steady stream of cirrus
should keep temperatures up a bit, with lows in the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
High pressure will continue to build into the region over the
weekend with dry and slightly below normal temperatures. This high
pressure will influence the weather through the weekend and into the
beginning of next week. As the high pressure shifts east Sunday into
Monday, temps will begin to warm back to just above normal for the
first half of the week.
As this high shifts east, a weather system will also develop out in
the western plains and move east toward the midwest for the middle
of the week. Models differ with timing and speed of this system and
associated precip. Models were quite far apart earlier today, but
are beginning to get a little closer in agreement. The Canadian and
ECMWF take the low track northwest of the area while the GFS has the
low tracking right over the CWA. Canadian is about 6hrs faster than
the ECMWF and GFS. So, taking a blend of the models, gives the
result of high chance pops for Wed, likely pops for Wed night and
then precip diminishing some Thursday. So, light precip expected
beginning Tues night and then become more moderate/heavy for Wed and
Wed night. Based on the current forecasted strong dynamics of this
system, isolated thunderstorms also look possible. Initial thoughts
are that precip will end late Thursday, bringing the return of dry
weather for Thursday night and Friday.
Above normal temps for Tue and Wed will be short lived as cooler air
will advect in behind the mid-week system, so below temps are
expected for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Area of MVFR ceilings settling southward from northern Illinois
and has reached about a KPIA-KPNT line, but some additional
diurnal development has occurred as far south as KDEC-KCMI. Main
period for MVFR conditions will be through early afternoon, as the
cloud heights are slowly lifting and the HRRR pulls the cloud deck
northeast out of the TAF sites by 21Z. A few more hours of gusty
winds will occur as well, before settling down with sunset. VFR
conditions to prevail the remainder of the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1114 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Cold front has now cleared the far southeast CWA and temperatures
there are falling through the 50s. Remainder of the CWA starting
to recover a bit, though temperatures were in the mid-upper 40s.
Still quite a bit of high clouds streaming over southeast
Illinois, though these are starting to shift eastward.
Main concern for the rest of today is with the stratocumulus deck
that is dropping south from northern Illinois. Leading edge of
this starting to spread across areas northwest and north of
Peoria. Latest HRRR drops the clouds about as far south as the
Peoria metro and Bloomington before shifting east early this
afternoon, which is supported by the RAP forecast soundings for
these areas. Soundings further south show more in the way of
scattered clouds at best.
Zones/grids recently updated for these trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Another breezy day is expected today across central and southeast
Illinois. However, it will be notably cooler than yesterday as a
cold front will have passed through the region overnight. Still,
these cooler temperatures will be much closer to normal for early
November than we have seen the past few days. Temperatures are still
hanging in the 60s in the far east, where FROPA has not occurred
yet, but expect temperatures in this area to fall once the front
arrives and struggle to rise much today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
1032 mb high pressure over the Western States will settle east
into IL overnight Saturday night and across the Ohio river valley
and mid Atlantic States Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures
to the area this weekend with highs in the 50s and lows of 35-40F
tonight and 30-35F Saturday night and Sunday night with a frost and
even a freeze likely. A northern stream short wave trof will quickly
pivot southeast across central IL Saturday morning and bring a
period of clouds and pass through dry. Otherwise a fair amount of
sunshine expected this weekend and into Monday.
A southern stream short wave will lift ne across the Southeast
States Mon and Monday night with its qpf staying southeast of IL
though southeast IL may see more clouds. Temperatures to gradually
modify into the middle of next week with southerly flow around high
pressure over southern New England Tue. Highs reach the lower 60s
Tue/Wed with southeast IL in the mid 60s on Wed. 00Z models still
differ with track of low pressure system ejecting ne from strong
upper level trof over the Rockies during middle of next week. GFS
models remains the faster with ECMWF model slowest and GEM model in
between. Stayed close to consensus pops from Tue night through Thu
and highest pops being Wed afternoon and Wed night with isolated
thunderstorms possible especially south of I-72 as consensus has
cold front passing east through IL then. Low pressure pulls away
from area Thu night and Friday returning dry and cooler weather
with highs back in the 50s on next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
Area of MVFR ceilings settling southward from northern Illinois
and has reached about a KPIA-KPNT line, but some additional
diurnal development has occurred as far south as KDEC-KCMI. Main
period for MVFR conditions will be through early afternoon, as the
cloud heights are slowly lifting and the HRRR pulls the cloud deck
northeast out of the TAF sites by 21Z. A few more hours of gusty
winds will occur as well, before settling down with sunset. VFR
conditions to prevail the remainder of the period.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
242 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO
NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH.
OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM
AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN
AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG
IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY
END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE
BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES.
AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END
UP AS FROST OR DEW.
MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE
NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY
ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A
DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION...
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...
DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND
IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP
AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE.
THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND
REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES
TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE
EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT
THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING
OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS I COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO I INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. WASNT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DROP CATEGORY TO 1500 KFT AGL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE 00-03Z TIME
FRAME AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08-09Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN
THE TREATMENT ON DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
AS A RESULT I DECIDED AGAINST LOWERING CATEGORIES BELOW VFR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE
RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE
DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ
HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG
POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR
TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHING AND
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE
GFS PRODUCES TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS...THE FIRST OF WHICH LIFTS
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE SECOND CENTER IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SINGLE LOW CENTER PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO PRECIPITATION
LONGER WITH GREATER AMOUNTS SHOWING UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION DEPICTED. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT PRODUCES SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS...PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS HAVE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF 0" ALONG THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
BORDERS AND AROUND 1.3" NEAR THE NEBRASKA...COLORADO...KANSAS
TRI-BORDER AREA.
MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH A
GENERAL DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGH SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS I COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO I INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. WASNT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DROP CATEGORY TO 1500 KFT AGL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE 00-03Z TIME
FRAME AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08-09Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN
THE TREATMENT ON DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
AS A RESULT I DECIDED AGAINST LOWERING CATEGORIES BELOW VFR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL
CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START
TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 21Z ACROSS
OUR AREA...AND THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
KMSP...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY RISE TO VFR BY 21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW AT 15-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSW AT 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S AT 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE IT...BUT ALMOST CERTAIN
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...IN MODEST
850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS... LIKELY RESULTING IN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE NATURE
OF ITS PERSISTENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO NOTE THIS FEATURE IN THE
GRIDDED FORECASTS...DIMINISHING BY 00Z AND PROBABLY BEFORE IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. AFTERWARD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
PERSISTENTLY HIGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO AT LEAST AROUND
1.75 INCHES UNDER MODEST 850MB CONVERGENCE. ANY MID-LEVEL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
WEAK. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO...BUT PROBABLY JUST NORTHWEST OF...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH 06Z...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE RAP AND THE HRRR WRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN
DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM...
MOIST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS IN
AND NEAR THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DECENT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED FOR PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOCUSED FROM THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO PART OF THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AN AREA
OF BREAKS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
AS WELL AS THE HRRR WRF FORECAST DEPICT A RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS BY
LATE EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH SHOULD MAKE
THE NIGHT...ON AVERAGE...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A LIGHT
BUT NOTICEABLE SOUTHWEST WIND MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER
MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN
THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND
THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT
BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD
BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED.
LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO
START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH AND SETTLING JUST OFF THE NC COAST AND ACROSS GA/SC AS A
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE GUSTO.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHALLOW
STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S... ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A STIRRING OF THE WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE MO VALLEY MOVES
EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT. WHILE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS VARY...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SAVANAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC COAST
MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
POPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE GREATEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CAD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. HAVE
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE FAVORED
DAMMING REGION ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...STUBBORN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT APPEARS TO LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE TRIANGLE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDU DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EVENTUALLY DIMINISHES AS
GUIDANCE PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTS...ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO AMOUNT
AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN A
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD AMOUNT AND HEIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RETURN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF LIFR
OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES TOWARD THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. DURING
SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MOSTLY MVFR BY THE END OF THE
18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.
VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY ACCORDING TO
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND AREAS OF SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
102 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...AND MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST
OFFSHORE...WITH ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THAT FLOW FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD
KCLT AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IF RAP AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY ALONG WITH HRRR WRF GUIDANCE...THIS RAIN
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. STILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
PROGRESS EAST IN SPACE AND INTENSITY THAT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IS PRUDENT. CONSIDERED A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE TRIAD BUT
THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE AREA OF
RAIN AND EVEN THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TRIAD DRY.
CLOUDS ARE ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST...WITH ALREADY SOME SMALL
CLEAR PATCHES IN THE AREA. MORE TEXTURED CLOUDS WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY CLEARING FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...AND THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS BREAKS OCCURRING BETWEEN
ABOUT 19Z AND 21Z. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AND CLOUD TRENDS THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW
BREAKS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN SPACE AND TIME LIKELY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE....AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...EVEN WITH AN HOUR
OR TWO OF BREAKS TEMPERATURES COULD RISE QUICKLY AND DID NOT CHANGES
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED
TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN/INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME
SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST.
STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS
WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID
50S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE
SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT
WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN
SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...
AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR
NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL
CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...STUBBORN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT APPEARS TO LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE TRIANGLE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDU DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EVENTUALLY DIMINISHES AS
GUIDANCE PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTS...ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO AMOUNT
AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN A
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD AMOUNT AND HEIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RETURN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF LIFR
OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES TOWARD THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. DURING
SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MOSTLY MVFR BY THE END OF THE
18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.
VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY ACCORDING TO
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND AREAS OF SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
249 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK AND MINOT
RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL THAT SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL CLOUD FORECAST SHOWS THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREES THIS EVENING AS H850 WARM ADVECTION ERODES
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXPECT
A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES.
UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS FLATTEN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM
WEST COAST TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/LOWER THICKNESSES COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING EITHER
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA PER GFS...OR EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
PER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN H85 COLD POCKET OF -4C BEING DRAWN
INTO AND HOVERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE OVERALL NORTHERN
TRAJECTORY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FIELD ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING
ANALYSIS IN TERMS OF SNOW SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES
FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK AND EAST INTO JAMESTOWN...FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
LOW VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATO CU WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Showers and storms continue to develop across the Northwest Hill
Country this afternoon. Light northeast flow behind a cold front
combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of
the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this
afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the
expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring moisture
up and over the cold front. GFS continues to confine much of the
precipitation to the Hill Country and Heartland, while the HRRR and
the TTU WRF show convection farther north and west into San Angelo
and Abilene as well. The WRF and HRRR handled yesterdays lack of
convection better, and were faster to break out the convection
earlier today. Thus, will place the higher PoPs across the
southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a little more
across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well.
A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area
tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves
through. Still cool however, even with a little sun possible in the
afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Isolated light showers along and south of the I-10 corridor end
Saturday night, as dry air associated with surface high pressure
builds in. 700 MB moisture and mid level clouds, however, will
persist Saturday night and Sunday, mainly south of the I-20
corridor. Low level moisture and clouds return Monday as stronger
southeast to south surface winds return Gulf moisture. The next
chance of rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as an
upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle into the Central
Plains. Unfortunately, most of the lift from this system is north
of West Central Texas. Thus, will keep rainfall chances on the low
side. A cold front associated with the upper low will also move
through Wednesday, pushing low and mid level moisture east, and
ending rain chances. The later half of next week is dry as surface
high pressure dominates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 49 63 42 62 / 40 20 5 5
San Angelo 51 64 42 62 / 50 30 10 5
Junction 53 62 45 63 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
4
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PASSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT...TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED AT BLF AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
75 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 74 DEGREES SET IN 1975. WITH
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SEVERAL DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
AS OF 923 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR FROM AROUND
800 MB TO AROUND 600 MB WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HINDERING THE CLOUD ADVANCE EAST AND
MIXING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
TOLEDO TO WEST MEMPHIS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE
CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW
AND HRRR BLEND FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WILL THIN WITH
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...AND MIXING FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
CHEW AWAY AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER.
AT 09Z/4AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ORD/CHICAGO AREA
INTO EAST TEXAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
HAS OUTPACED THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CVG/CINCINNATI TO BNA/NASHVILLE. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT THE SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
(WV COUNTIES INTO FAR WRN VA) BETWEEN NOON-3PM.
THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO
TODAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELD. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SURFACE
FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...SO EVEN IF SHOWERS REACH THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANYTHING ACTUALLY CROSSES INTO THE
PIEDMONT.
FOR TODAY WILL KEEP MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST
CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FOR
TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SHOWERS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ATTM THINK SHOWERS SHOULD
REACH BLF/BLUEFIELD AND LWB/LEWISBURG AREAS BETWEEN NOON-
3PM...THEN INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
4-7PM...SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS BETWEEN 7-10PM. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER PRIOR TO THESE TIME FRAMES...BUT MAIN THREAT
SHOULD AWAIT ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY
SLOW MOVING ANAFRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ADVERTISE THE SAME SOLUTION WITH WAVES
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...
THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHTER ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL TAPER POPS A BIT UP NORTH. EXPECTED QPF DOES NOT
APPEAR TO POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR
WILL BE WORKING FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO EXPECT AN EARLY
HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THEREAFTER. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE COLDER AIR
STARTS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RAPID END TO PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE HINTING AT SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE
RIDGE AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A DRY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING RESEMBLING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND TAKE UP A
FAMILIAR WEDGE POSITION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US PLEASANT BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ALLOWS ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR LATER ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH QPF EVENT AS
THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPLIT WITH
THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING BY BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR
SOUTH AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION
EVOLVES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE
WEDGE SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY...
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WPC
RECOMMENDED USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING OF
THE UPPER WAVE AND THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE
AT THIS TIME FRAME. WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND
WE GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1256 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGES SHOWED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS THE HIGHRES
MODELS SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED SOLAR HEATING AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL INTRODUCE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS VCNTY OF KBLF AND KLWB THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING
EAST TO NEAR KBCB AND KROA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TOO
LOW TO ADD MENTION TO THE TAFS.
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY...LOW
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE VERY
PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING...INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS INDICATE RAPID
RETURN OF MOISTURE MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
303 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE
COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAINING IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST RANGE AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN
SW WASHINGTON. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE REPLACED
BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT...PRESENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BACK TO THE SW
ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. AS A RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH
COAST FOR TONIGHT A LEADING IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
INITIALLY. THEN EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF STEADY RAIN TO REACH THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND PUSHING
INTO THE INTERIOR AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STEADY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OR NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ENTERS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH SNOW LEVELS SHARPLY
LOWERING FROM AROUND 7500 FT ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 3500 FT SUNDAY.
EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ON THE CASCADE PASSES
FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY....WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES. DESPITE THESE AMOUNTS FALLING SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOSE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED. SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR DETAILS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OFFSHORE AND MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED
BY THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME OF THESE
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS BY
THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXTEND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY. COULD ALSO SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY
MORNING IF CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE WET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
WE COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CASCADE SNOW LIKELY
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. /64
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORTLAND. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
TAF SITES MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZES WITH IT...AS WELL AS MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND LOW VFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN MVFR
CONDITIONS INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE GORGE TO PREVENT ANY FOG TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE A
CHANCE OF LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
WE WILL SEE GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR 3 OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AND
A GALE WATCH FOR THE FOURTH. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING THE WINDS TO AN END.
SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system arrives late Saturday and Sunday delivering rain
and mountain snow. This will be followed by hit or miss showers
and cooler temperatures through early next week. The next chance
of widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek. This
weather system will bring a chance for light snow in the valleys
and moderate to heavy snow in the mountains. A wetter and windy
storm system is expected to arrive late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A developing warm front will bring increasing clouds and
potential for light precipitation across the Cascades and
northern mountains. Precipitation amounts will be light with the
best chance for a few hundredths along and north of Highway 20.
Snow levels will range between 3600-4000 feet in NE WA to over
5000 feet in the Cascades. Precipitation will be too light to have
much impacts but a dusting or so cannot be ruled out on Sherman
Pass. For the remainder of the region, the focus will be on fog
and low clouds. In theory, we should see less fog across
southeastern WA, Spokane-Cda, and Ritzville tonight as winds pick
up from the southeast. This flow pattern should shove the boundary
layer moisture into Central WA toward the Wenatchee Area,
Waterville Plateau, and valleys north of Hwy 2. This what short-
range models have forecast since this morning however, there is
some uncertainty that winds will be strong enough to push out the
current low clouds and there is little in the way of drying
heading this way. With increasing moisture in the mid and upper-
levels, this does not bode well for fog but I believe the low
clouds will stick around for many locations across the Upper Basin
and most points west and north with impacts mainly focused on
aviation. /sb
Saturday through Tuesday morning...Model guidance is actually in
pretty good agreement for the next several days. High pressure
will strengthen Saturday as the incoming trough takes on a more
north-south orientation. This will push the tonight`s warm front
and accompanying moisture north into southern B.C. by morning.
This will also allow the following cold front to slow down. While
there will still be a good chance of precipitation across the
extreme northwest portion of the forecast area through the day on
Saturday. Precipitation amounts should remain on the light side
away from the immediate Cascade crest. The cold front will then be
on the Cascades between 06-12z Sunday and quickly track east
across the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. The front will be
the focusing point for the best precipitation. The trough will
then move over the region Sunday night resulting in drying from
the west, but keeping a good chance for mountains showers for the
Idaho Panhandle. The atmosphere will destabilize enough on Monday
as the cold core passes through the region to support widespread
showers for just about all locations. But the best chances will be
in the up-sloping areas of the Panhandle and Northeast Washington
mountains.
This weather system will tap into pretty decent Pacific moisture
with PWATs around 200 percent of normal. So it looks like all
locations will see measurable precipitation. The Cascade crest and
Panhandle mountains, as usual, will be the big winners. Areas from
the lower east slopes across the basin and into the Palouse will
likely see from a tenth to a quarter of an inch, if not slightly
more. The mountains will likely see from a quarter to three
quarters of an inch of precipitation and locally up to an inch or
higher.
A a little tougher call will be just what will the precipitation
type be. Snow levels rise to between 5-7k feet with the warm
front and pretty much stay well above 5k feet until Sunday
mid-day as the cold front moves through. Snow levels lower to
between 4-5k feet by Sunday afternoon and 3-4k feet by Monday
afternoon. For areas below 3k feet precipitation will be as rain,
the exception maybe for the northern valleys up near the Canadian
border where some light accumulations will be possible during the Monday
morning commute. Otherwise precipitation will begin as mainly
rain and high elevations snow in the mountains before turning to
snow as the cooler air filters into the region. Snow amounts for
the Cascades will likely be 3-5 inches with 5-8 for the northeast
and Panhandle mountain by Monday morning.
Temperatures will warm nicely on Saturday with warm air advection
and be 3-6 degrees above normal. The cooling Sunday and Monday to
the cooler side of normal. Winds will be slightly elevated with
the cold front passage, but mainly under 15 mph. Tobin
...LIGHT VALLEY SNOW AND MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...
Tuesday through Thursday: The first in a pair of Pacific storm
systems next week will arrive on Wednesday. The 12Z model guidance
has come into much better agreement in the timing. The warm front
looks to arrive Wednesday morning. Moist isentropic ascent will
increase through the morning hours with this ascent will favor
the northern mountains and the ID Panhandle. Precipitation will
also begin to fall along the Cascade crest by the early morning
hours on Wednesday in strong westerly flow. This should result in
a shadow in the lee of the Cascades, which is expected to persist
as the cold front pushes into the basin in the afternoon. The
afternoon and evening period on Wednesday will likely be our best
chance for precipitation across extreme eastern WA and in the ID
Panhandle with cold front passage. Then the upper level trough
will push in over the region for Wednesday night and will steepen
mid level lapse rates considerably across the area. Moist westerly
flow in an increasingly more unstable air mass will keep
precipitation continuing over the Central Panhandle Mountains
through much of Wednesday night.
The main impacts from this weather system will be for accumulating
snowfall. Snow levels will start out at valley floors across the
northern mountains and in the ID Panhandle Wednesday morning. The
upper portions of the Methow Valley and higher benches around
Spokane will also see temperatures cold enough for a chance of
some snow at onset in the morning. Any valley accumulations will
likely be light as isentropic ascent will be weak Wednesday morning.
Winds at 850 mbs will strengthen to around 30-40 kts out of the
south by the afternoon. This is expected to moderate temperatures
at lower elevations at least around the edge of the basin. It is
difficult to say if the far northern valleys will see thermal
profiles warm up enough for precipitation to turn over to rain.
Models show wet bulb zeros height increasing to between 3-4 kft
through the afternoon, so we will continue with the thought that
the heaviest amount of snow will be at higher elevations. Snow
levels will plummet Wednesday night when the upper level cold pool
moves over. This will result in a stronger convective component
to the precipitation with heavy snow showers continuing across the
Central Panhandle Mountains.
...WET AND WINDY ON FRIDAY...
Thursday night and Friday: The second storm system to impact the
Inland Northwest will arrive on Friday. The Polar Jet will
strengthen over the Gulf of Alaska to over 180 kts at 250 mbs. A
rich plume of moisture will ride the jet and be directed into the
Northwest. Expect a different set of characteristics with this
second system. Temperatures will likely moderate considerably more
through the day on Friday than expected on Wednesday. Although,
we may see some snow falling in the valleys as this system begins
to move in, I expect snow levels to increase quickly by the
afternoon. Only the higher elevations will remain as snow with all
other areas changing over to rain. Rain could be heavy at times,
especially right along the Cascade crest, in the Northeast
Mountains and in the ID Panhandle. Winds will also be a concern on
Friday with models showing 850 mb winds to between 50-60 kts
possible. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Ceilings associated with widespread stratus across the
entire Columbia Basin expected to slowly lift and erode from
south to north 18-23Z. Confidence is low that stratus will fully
erode north of the Hwy 2 corridor and TAFS maybe a bit optimistic
but have support from HRRR and NAM models. Otherwise...a
developing warm front will bring increasing ceiling 6-8K ft AGL
with areas of very light precipitation across the northern
mountains tonight. Light SE flow overnight favors Wenatchee as
the best candidate for stratus Saturday morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 50 40 45 35 41 / 10 10 70 80 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 35 49 39 43 35 41 / 10 10 60 90 50 30
Pullman 34 50 39 45 35 42 / 0 0 60 80 40 40
Lewiston 36 54 44 50 41 46 / 0 0 40 50 50 50
Colville 35 48 39 46 33 43 / 40 20 70 70 30 20
Sandpoint 34 49 36 43 33 41 / 20 20 60 90 50 30
Kellogg 32 47 35 40 34 40 / 10 10 50 80 50 50
Moses Lake 35 52 40 51 32 46 / 10 20 70 20 20 30
Wenatchee 38 50 42 51 37 47 / 10 40 60 20 20 20
Omak 36 46 41 48 35 44 / 20 40 70 40 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
927 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE
COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO SKY
COVER NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY KEEPS THE
REGION GENERALLY DRY. A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE IN
WASHINGTON COUNTY...AND LOCAL SPOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A TILLAMOOK TO
BATTLE GROUND LINE. TO THE SOUTH...A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME
SUN IN THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS LIKE HILLSBORO THAT HANG ON TO CLOUDS LONGER.
THESE AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
EXPECT SOME SUN AND BLUE SKIES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY
INLAND AND SOUTH...THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
TIMING ON THE FRONT AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS FOR THE COAST NORTH OF LINCOLN CITY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
STEADY RAIN TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE...THEN RAIN SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
STILL EXPECTING MODEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
INLAND...AND ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS 7000 TO 8000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER SATURDAY EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND
AND EXPECT SNOW NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AND WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING NEAR PASS
LEVELS...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT AND ABOVE
THE PASSES. TRAVELERS OVER THE CASCADE PASSES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/ FOR MORE DETAILS. CULLEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
DROP DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WITH POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO
THE PASSES AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS START TO
CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY KEEPING
THE AREA DRY. THIS ALSO CLEARS OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD ALSO HELP
CREATE VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT TROUGH
MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND MAYBE SOME MORE SNOW TO THE PASSES ON THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING WAS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE...AND THIS
IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OR SO.
OTHERWISE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTH
COAST NEAR KAST WHERE SOME VFR OR LOCALLY MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. WE MAY SEE
SOME LOCAL IFR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES...THOUGH A LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW NEAR THE GORGE MAY PROTECT MUCH OF THE PORTLAND AREA. THE
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT DOES NOT REACH KAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...AND INLAND UNTIL MID DAY
SATURDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE GORGE TO PREVENT ANY FOG TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY
SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE HAVE A INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING
FOR 3 OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE FOURTH.
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THE WINDS TO AN
END.
SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
435 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest
today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except
for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian
Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the
Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as
a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move
into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a
stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front
will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting
in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains.
This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler
temperatures through early next week. The next chance of
widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm
today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west.
Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn
begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the
lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today?
Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly
saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on
keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850
mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with
widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking
through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see
areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at
times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of
drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast
through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof
of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south
as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington
will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve
conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog
over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late
morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday
or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing
potential.
For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to
strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph
over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure
gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will
also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again
primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic
ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not
straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the
850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the
5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t
expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question
is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this
evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to
occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF
hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this
is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically
speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it
bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the
Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition
to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater
ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver
light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with
moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be
possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly
impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway.
Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the
relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high
temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx
Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move
onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and
north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation
will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then
through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will
move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will
lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow
will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and
ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and
by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will
generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception
to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where
their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly
lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some
local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No
accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley
locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from
0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas
to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat
night will actually be several degrees above average given the
extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some
patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours.
Sunday temps will be around average.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the
trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough
will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across
the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By
Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions.
Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings
expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night
through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID.
/Nisbet
Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring
a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a
weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region
being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model
agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the
impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough
in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF
and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the
Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip
from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night
and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the
most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes
in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border
and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a
significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the
earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect
mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough
approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The
lows will range in the 30s. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The forecast confidence will remain quite low for most
sites this morning due to widely varying conditions under a
expansive blanket of low clouds. Confidence is high that most if not
all sites will see at best MVFR cigs this morning at least over the
eastern third of WA into north ID with bases generally no higher
than 015. PUW and GEG will likely see the worst of the conditions
with cigs below 005 and vsbys ranging from 1-3 miles or worse at
times. For MWH and EAT our confidence is even lower since we can`t
see how expansive the low clouds on satellite due to considerable
high clouds however there is patchy fog around both sites according
to nearby obs and webcams. Our confidence of improving conditions
for the afternoon is fairly high for PUW and LWS as low level winds
turn to the S-SE. These improving conditions will gradually spread N-
NW with time however how quick is the question. Its quite possible
MVFR cigs will persist through the entire day with the main
improvement revolving around increased visibilities. For tonight,
the low clouds should ease over most of the sites, with VFR cigs
prevailing. The only exception is for EAT where a incoming cold
front will likely drop cigs into the MVFR category toward morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40
Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50
Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40
Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40
Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40
Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50
Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60
Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10
Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20
Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$