Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/06/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
942 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE VALLEYS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES EXTENDING FROM THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY EWD INTO GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE LAST NIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN ERN PIMA COUNTY HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER... HEAVIER AMOUNTS OCCURRED NORTH OF TUCSON ACROSS PINAL COUNTY. LIQUID AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON...HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE MOSTLY JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...ALTHOUGH MOUNT GRAHAM APPEARS TO HAVE RECEIVED A TRACE OF SNOW TO PERHAPS ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA VALID 16Z. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 5-15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 04/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.78 INCH. THE COLUMN WAS SATURATED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND WAS VERY DRY ABOVE 650 MB. 04/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/SWRN CONUS WITH A 547 DM LOW CENTERED OVER NRN NEVADA. A 110 KT JET MAX WAS ANALYZED AT 300 MB OVER SE ARIZONA...AND MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS 04/12Z NWP MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF TWO DISTINCT IMPULSES...THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX ALOFT...WILL MOVE WELL NEWD BEYOND THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE ONGOING PRECIP IS NOT HANDLED VERY WELL BY SEVERAL RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT ANY RATE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD AND FILL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SECOND IMPULSE ALOFT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ARIZONA. 04/12Z NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO OCCUR TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM TUCSON NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 6000-7000 FEET BY DAYBREAK THUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMS BY THUR MORNING ACROSS THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT GRAHAM SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST THUR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10- 15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TUE...THEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR THUR. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6K-10K FT MSL THRU TONIGHT...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND TODAY SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. EXPECT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION /250 AM MST/...ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE EAST MIDDAY THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NOT MUCH...IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SO DRY WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEMS PASSAGE...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF US. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR NOW I HAVE MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING FALLING TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOSTLY EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GRAHAM COUNTY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOW TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT I AM CURRENTLY FORECASTING...SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION AND WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO STAY TUNED. FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 7 TO 9 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
902 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN NV THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS TRUCKEE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN RESPONSE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NV. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF PYRAMID LAKE. THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY FOOTHILLS AS THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY 08Z (MIDNIGHT) AND THEN CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WHILE MAINLY WET ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS, SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. HOHMANN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015/ UPDATE... BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW AS FAR WEST AS KAAT, WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE RENO-CARSON AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS WEDNESDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE EAST OF RENO. HOWEVER, A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER WEST AND WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY THIS EVENING AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADWAYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BELOW FREEZING. HOHMANN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015/ SYNOPSIS... COOL CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS TWO QUICK MOVING STORMS PASS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT TERM... ONE INTERESTING BIT OF INFO FOR TONIGHT...THE OVERNIGHT LOW AT THE RENO AIRPORT IS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES NOT DO SO BEFORE MIDNIGHT IT WILL BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZE IN A CALENDAR YEAR SET ON NOVEMBER 3RD 1992. LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW, BUT WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN NARROW BANDS UP TO 20 MILES OR SO DOWNWIND SOUTH OF TAHOE, PYRAMID AND WALKER. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TODAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD LOW DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON ROADS. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IS OVER PERSHING, CHURCHILL, MINERAL AND LYON COUNTIES. BEHIND THE SYSTEM UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CARSON RANGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS DOUGLAS, LYON, WESTERN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY, MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SECOND TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY CREEP UP TO 5000-5500 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BRONG LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... LONG TERM CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE: INCREASING POP TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, WINDS WERE RAISED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE TO STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE INVERSIONS WILL KEEP MIXING RESTRICTED TO UNDER ~8,500 FT ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE VALLEY AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES/WARMS. THE INVERSIONS WILL ALSO MEAN HIGHS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WILL BE SIMILAR (WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES) TO THE LOWER VALLEYS. SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS, ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS OVER RIDGES AND IN VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE STILL IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING TROUGH AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN ENSEMBLE RUNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE A TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED POP TO 30-50% FOR THE REGION MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT. I HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONG FRONT. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS, THE MONDAY SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH COLDER THAN THE LAST ONE AND HAS NO MAJOR MOISTURE FEED. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS DYNAMIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE (DUE TO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL OVER OCEAN) SO THE SIERRA COULD SEE A DECENT HIGHER RATIO (COMPARED TO THE RECENT STORM) SNOWFALL, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ALSO, WITHOUT A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED, WESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE MORE RAIN SHADOWING/WIND WITH PRECIPITATION WAITING FOR THE FRONTAL FORCING TO SPILLOVER. NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEYS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNYDER AVIATION... FAST-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 9 PM/05Z NEAR INTERSTATE 80, DROPPING SOUTH TO BETWEEN LEE VINING AND KHTH BY 1-2AM (08Z-09Z). BRIEF IFR CIGS AND IFR/LIFR VIS AND EXTENSIVE TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS, A DUSTING TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS KLOL AND KNFL. OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL AND A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND EVENTUALLY WALKER LAKE. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF -SN/SN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN PYRAMID LAKE AND STAGECOACH/KSPZ, AS WELL AS SOUTH OF WALKER LAKE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NARROW LAKE EFFECT BANDS. WEDNESDAY MORNING, AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACK SOUTHWARD. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP SOME. SNYDER && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE SW MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE SN PICK UP OVER THE NRN RANGES. TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...SPREADING TO THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE EVEN OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT 40 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREADS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS A BIT SINCE WE ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGHS...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT WILL NOT OCCUR TIL LATER TODAY. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR OVER ERN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE HAS SET UP EAST OF KLAA AND KSPD...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE KANSAS BORDER LATER TODAY GIVEN VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THIS AREA. ROSE && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 ...HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS... ...WINDY AND MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS... SNOW IS FLYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS PER WEB CAMS. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS MORNING...WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING GOING ON AT THIS HOUR...WITH 3 LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES NORTHEAST OF DURANGO...AND 14 STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES...BETWEEN CORTEZ AND DURANGO. THAT`S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR 4 AM ON A NOVEMBER 4TH MORNING IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SO...PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE WAY. THIS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE STEEP SLOPES OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...PROMISES A GOOD SNOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY 10-20 INCHES BY STORM`S END THURSDAY. WOLF CREEK PASS SHOULD DO WELL. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CATCH SOME TOO. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEM`S GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MOSTLY RUN 4 TO 8 INCHES...BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE AND NORTHERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW. NOT A PARTICULARLY BIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS COULD SEE MAYBE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAINLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE WET MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MAYBE 1 TO 3 ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD PERHAPS SEE A FEW WET FLAKES TONIGHT AS SHOWERS SKIRT ACROSS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW...JUST SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW TO BLOW...BUT STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING A FIRE IN DEAD FUELS RAPIDLY SHOULD ONE GET GOING. SO...CAUTION MUST CONTINUE ON THIS FRONT. ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY HAVE NOCTURNAL STUFF GOING ON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS I WRITE. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE HEAT UP A LITTLE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EAST AS WELL. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHERE SOMETHING COULD FIRE. SPC HAS THE AREA JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BACA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY. STARTING TO COOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TODAY AS CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR BEGIN TO ADVANCE. HOWEVER...STILL PRETTY WARM OVER THE EAST...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE IN COMBINATION WITH PLENTY OF SUN. PROBABLY NO RECORDS TODAY...THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT PLACES LIKE LAMAR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THU MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS...AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE E PLAINS THU MORNING...PROMPTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AS WELL AS A 20 DEGREE COOLDOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER...AND THE ONGOING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS THU MORN AND AFTN LOOKS GOOD. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHUTDOWN THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO A NW DIRECTION. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRI ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND GIVES THE FORECAST AREA A GLANCING BLOW...ALLOWING ISOLATED PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS...BOTH FRI AND SAT MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE E PLAINS. SUN AND MON THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT EXPECTED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE E PLAINS. SAVE FOR THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRI OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON. TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MON INTO TUE...THOUGH THE EC DIGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THIS TRACK WILL BRING ISOLATED PCPN TO THE CONTDVD TUE MORN...THEN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AS PCPN SPREADS TO THE SLV AND E MTS. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE STORM MOVING THROUGH CO TODAY AND THURSDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING HEAVY SN OVR THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN LUSI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE SCT BUT BRIEFLY COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT KALS. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 12-14Z AT KCOS...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME VFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS THU MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AREA-WIDE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
958 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE SW MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE SN PICK UP OVER THE NRN RANGES. TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...SPREADING TO THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE EVEN OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT 40 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREADS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS A BIT SINCE WE ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGHS...AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT WILL NOT OCCUR TIL LATER TODAY. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR OVER ERN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE HAS SET UP EAST OF KLAA AND KSPD...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE KANSAS BORDER LATER TODAY GIVEN VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THIS AREA. ROSE && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 ...HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS... ...WINDY AND MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS... SNOW IS FLYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS PER WEB CAMS. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS MORNING...WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING GOING ON AT THIS HOUR...WITH 3 LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES NORTHEAST OF DURANGO...AND 14 STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES...BETWEEN CORTEZ AND DURANGO. THAT`S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR 4 AM ON A NOVEMBER 4TH MORNING IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SO...PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE WAY. THIS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE STEEP SLOPES OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...PROMISES A GOOD SNOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY 10-20 INCHES BY STORM`S END THURSDAY. WOLF CREEK PASS SHOULD DO WELL. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CATCH SOME TOO. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEM`S GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MOSTLY RUN 4 TO 8 INCHES...BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE AND NORTHERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW. NOT A PARTICULARLY BIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS COULD SEE MAYBE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAINLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE WET MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MAYBE 1 TO 3 ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD PERHAPS SEE A FEW WET FLAKES TONIGHT AS SHOWERS SKIRT ACROSS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW...JUST SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW TO BLOW...BUT STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING A FIRE IN DEAD FUELS RAPIDLY SHOULD ONE GET GOING. SO...CAUTION MUST CONTINUE ON THIS FRONT. ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY HAVE NOCTURNAL STUFF GOING ON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS I WRITE. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE HEAT UP A LITTLE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EAST AS WELL. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHERE SOMETHING COULD FIRE. SPC HAS THE AREA JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BACA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY. STARTING TO COOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TODAY AS CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR BEGIN TO ADVANCE. HOWEVER...STILL PRETTY WARM OVER THE EAST...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE IN COMBINATION WITH PLENTY OF SUN. PROBABLY NO RECORDS TODAY...THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT PLACES LIKE LAMAR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THU MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS...AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE E PLAINS THU MORNING...PROMPTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AS WELL AS A 20 DEGREE COOLDOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER...AND THE ONGOING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS THU MORN AND AFTN LOOKS GOOD. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHUTDOWN THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO A NW DIRECTION. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRI ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND GIVES THE FORECAST AREA A GLANCING BLOW...ALLOWING ISOLATED PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS...BOTH FRI AND SAT MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE E PLAINS. SUN AND MON THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT EXPECTED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE E PLAINS. SAVE FOR THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRI OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON. TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MON INTO TUE...THOUGH THE EC DIGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THIS TRACK WILL BRING ISOLATED PCPN TO THE CONTDVD TUE MORN...THEN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AS PCPN SPREADS TO THE SLV AND E MTS. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 MAJOR WINTER STORM ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE...SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY SPOTTY EARLY...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS...LARGELY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF SPELL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FOR THE TAF SITES...KALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL CARRY VCSH THERE FOR NOW STARTING 18Z. FOR KCOS AND KPUB...LESS LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS BUT STILL A SMALL CHANCE...THOUGH TOO SMALL TO CARRY IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF SHOWERS END UP MOVING ACROSS THESE SITES...COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
943 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 943 PM EST...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN 850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM. ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE... INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO FORCING REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z-06Z...WITH KPOU/KPSF EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SITES TO SEE FOG/STRATUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM FOR LATE TONIGHT. FOG/STRATUS MAY START TO BREAK UP IN THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING FOR KPOU/KPSF. MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THE AFTN HOURS WITH BKN CIGS AT 4-9 KFT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO SCT NATURE OF THE PRECIP. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG. SAT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT (0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
811 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... 01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. LONGWAVE AND DEEP TROUGHING NOW COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST...TO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WEATHER IS NOT IN OUR FORECAST ANYTIME SOON. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH THE FLOW AMPLIFIES INTO A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEW ENGLAND. OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS PROTECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EVENTUALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL FULLY BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DIP DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE WEEKEND GETS HERE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE MORE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF FOG...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY EARLY FOG BURNS OFF AND GIVES WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S FOR THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO ONCE AGAIN SEE A FEW SPOTS TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS STRETCH FOR LOCATIONS TO REACH 90...AND BASED ON CLIMO...MAY VERY WELL BE THE LAST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST WILL KEEP A 20% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND THOSE THAT DO WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY WILL BE EXPECTING NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR KLAL AND KPGD...BUT OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND AND A DEVELOPING SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELDS. WILL SEE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER FOR KPGD/KRSW/KFMY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN RETREATS EASTWARD DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 89 74 86 / 0 10 10 40 FMY 72 90 73 88 / 0 20 20 50 GIF 71 89 71 87 / 0 20 10 50 SRQ 72 89 73 86 / 0 10 20 30 BKV 69 90 69 88 / 0 10 10 30 SPG 74 88 74 86 / 0 10 10 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY BUT ALSO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS REPOSITIONED FARTHER NORTH...WHICH HAS CAUSED EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO INCREASE A TAD. THIS HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE MORNING CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUNDINGS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WAS STILL PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE SO THE MOIST LAYER WAS STILL NOT THAT DEEP. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE PRESENT MID LEVEL TEMPS (MINUS 5-6 DEGREES AT 500 MB). EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND QUICKER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE PROSPECT FOR RECORD HIGHS THOUGH MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH WILL GET CLOSE (SEE BELOW). THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RECORD WARM LOWS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION... THE EARLY MORNING INLAND STRATUS HAD RECENTLY BROKE UP...BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT SEVERAL TERMINALS AS DAYTIME HEATING GENERATES A RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MARCHING INLAND WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR-IFR MAINLY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP A COASTAL SHOWER CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH OF THE WATERS. A MORE PREDOMINANT WIND WAVE WILL RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHTER ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTH WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET TODAY WITH UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... LOC DATE HI-MAX HI-MIN DAB 4-NOV 88 2004 73 1934 MCO 4-NOV 90 1934 73 2003 MLB 4-NOV 87 1948 76 2003 VRB 4-NOV 87 2002 76 1992 DAB 5-NOV 88 2003 75 2003 MCO 5-NOV 91 1934 72 2003 MLB 5-NOV 91 1992 75 2003 VRB 5-NOV 92 1992 74 2003 DAB 6-NOV 88 1948 73 1975 MCO 6-NOV 89 1959 73 1972 MLB 6-NOV 88 2002 75 1971 VRB 6-NOV 92 2002 73 2003 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... H5 PATTERN SHOW LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS FALLEN HEIGHTS AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN CHANGES FOR THE SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST...SEE BELOW FOR THOSE DISCUSSIONS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA THAT HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE PERSISTENT WEDGE PATTERN THAT HAS ENVELOPED THE CWA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND FOG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CLOUD DECK IS REDEVELOPING AND LOWERING ONCE AGAIN WITH NO IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WE CAN EXPECT AREAS OF FOG SOME LOCALLY DENSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT SHOWS NO POPS FROM THE GFS BUT NAM DOES KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF TRACE TO .01 BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO WILL FAVOR THE GFS AND KEEPS POPS OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AN LEVEL RIDGE WILL LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THEN APPROACHING THE UPSTATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF POPS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATE SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS REACHING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...LEANING TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...IS LOOKS LIKE AN IN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE INDICATED HIGHER POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO LOWER...AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. COULD SEE LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KDNL...KAGS AND KOGB. CONFIDENCE ON LIFR IS MODERATE TO HIGH AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO IFR AFT 12Z/06 MOST TERMINALS AND VFR AFTER 15Z/06 ALL TERMINALS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LATE SAT AND SUN...WITH ANOTHER WEDGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... A FEW AREA RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN WHERE MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES AND FOR LAKE WATEREE. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT COLUMBIA. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
913 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front is making steady progress toward western IL, and should reach near the IL river valley by 07z. Lightning in precip along the cold front has been steadily diminishing as the evening has progressed. While thunder may be quite limited during FROPA, we could still see some updrafts tap into the 60-70kt of 0-6km wind shear, creating some minor tree damage at times. Will monitor any fast moving storm segments for short term wind damage concerns. The speed of the front should push precip into Indiana by sunrise on Friday. Made some minor adjustments to the PoP grids to match current timing trends, but little change occurred to the point and click/worded forecast. Updated info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots). Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off in the wake of the convective line. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur. However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known; which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid 50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the passage of a fast moving cold front. Thunder has been lacking with all rain so far this afternoon. A narrow axis of instability will be accompanying the front itself, but MUCAPE values will only reach around 200 J/kg. Will continue with VCTS and not a tempo for thunder yet. HRRR and RAP updates show a weakening trend in convective updrafts as the front approaches. Several downdrafts with collapsing storm towers could produce some brief strong gusts. IFR clouds are in place for PIA, BMI, and SPI, with VFR clouds for DEC and CMI. Overall trend looks to be MVFR developing as the main line/front approaches. Late tonight, skies should rapidly clear before sunrise. The pressure gradient will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to 30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the strong dynamics with the system. Existing TAF`s had this in hand and only required some minor timing adjustments. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots). Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off in the wake of the convective line. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur. However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known; which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid 50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the passage of a fast moving cold front. Thunder has been lacking with all rain so far this afternoon. A narrow axis of instability will be accompanying the front itself, but MUCAPE values will only reach around 200 J/kg. Will continue with VCTS and not a tempo for thunder yet. HRRR and RAP updates show a weakening trend in convective updrafts as the front approaches. Several downdrafts with collapsing storm towers could produce some brief strong gusts. IFR clouds are in place for PIA, BMI, and SPI, with VFR clouds for DEC and CMI. Overall trend looks to be MVFR developing as the main line/front approaches. Late tonight, skies should rapidly clear before sunrise. The pressure gradient will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to 30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the strong dynamics with the system. Existing TAF`s had this in hand and only required some minor timing adjustments. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Broad southwesterly flow continues to bring unseasonably warm/moist air into the region today. As has been the case for the past couple of days, widespread dense fog once again developed last night and persisted into the morning hours. 16z/10 am obs showed most of the fog had dissipated, with some patchy 2-4 mile visbys still noted between the Illinois River and I-55. Based on trends and most recent HRRR forecast, expect fog to completely dissipate over the next hour. The primary short-term forecast challenge for the remainder of the day will be amount of cloud cover and its impact on afternoon high temps. While the fog/low clouds will fade away, additional cloud cover at around 3,000-4,000ft is currently spreading northward from southern Illinois/Missouri. Think this will overspread much of the area, but partially dissipate during peak heating. End result will be partly to mostly cloudy conditions. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s to around 70, but will rise into the middle 70s near the Indiana border where ample sunshine has already occurred this morning. Forecast update to remove Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to the current Advisory area at this time. Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings, lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night. Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds. Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64. Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast. Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s. Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high pressure drifts east off the mid Atlantic coast while weakening surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies become partly sunny. Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Low clouds/fog continue to dissipate late this morning...however a couple patches of IFR conditions will persist at KPIA and KSPI through 19z. Meanwhile...an area of 3000-4000 foot ceilings currently across southwest Illinois will lift northward and overspread the central Illinois terminals between 19z and 22z. RAP forecast soundings show this moisture quite well and indicate it will stick around through the night. Main aviation forecast question will be how much fog will re-develop tonight. With airmass unchanged and a moist low-level flow continuing, am expecting patchy fog once again...however am not anticipating dense fog. With low clouds in place and slightly stronger southerly winds in advance of an approaching cold front, think mixing will prevent the widespread low visbys noted the past few nights. Instead, will only feature 3-4SM visbys between 03z and 16z. After that, winds will become southwesterly and increase to between 10 and 15kt by late Thursday morning, with any showers holding off until later in the day. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Broad southwesterly flow continues to bring unseasonably warm/moist air into the region today. As has been the case for the past couple of days, widespread dense fog once again developed last night and persisted into the morning hours. 16z/10 am obs showed most of the fog had dissipated, with some patchy 2-4 mile visbys still noted between the Illinois River and I-55. Based on trends and most recent HRRR forecast, expect fog to completely dissipate over the next hour. The primary short-term forecast challenge for the remainder of the day will be amount of cloud cover and its impact on afternoon high temps. While the fog/low clouds will fade away, additional cloud cover at around 3,000-4,000ft is currently spreading northward from southern Illinois/Missouri. Think this will overspread much of the area, but partially dissipate during peak heating. End result will be partly to mostly cloudy conditions. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s to around 70, but will rise into the middle 70s near the Indiana border where ample sunshine has already occurred this morning. Forecast update to remove Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to the current Advisory area at this time. Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings, lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night. Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds. Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64. Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast. Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s. Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies become partly sunny. Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Areas of VLIFR vsbys are expected thru about 15z with IFR cigs possible into the early afternoon hours. Lower vsbys much more variable across the area than what we saw yesterday at this time. However, short term models continue to suggest the threat will continue over the area, especially in locations that were currently and have been down to less than 1 mile. The threat for the low vsbys will gradually end by 15 or 16z with more of a stratus layer prevailing into the afternoon hours with only a gradual increase in cig bases expected. If we can scatter out for a time later this afternoon, there will be another threat for some patchy dense (IFR or lower conditions) tonight. Southerly winds are expected again today and tonight at around 10 kts. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to the current Advisory area at this time. Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings, lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night. Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds. Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64. Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast. Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s. Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies become partly sunny. Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Areas of VLIFR vsbys are expected thru about 15z with IFR cigs possible into the early afternoon hours. Lower vsbys much more variable across the area than what we saw yesterday at this time. However, short term models continue to suggest the threat will continue over the area, especially in locations that were currently and have been down to less than 1 mile. The threat for the low vsbys will gradually end by 15 or 16z with more of a stratus layer prevailing into the afternoon hours with only a gradual increase in cig bases expected. If we can scatter out for a time later this afternoon, there will be another threat for some patchy dense (IFR or lower conditions) tonight. Southerly winds are expected again today and tonight at around 10 kts. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to the current Advisory area at this time. Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings, lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night. Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds. Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64. Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast. Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s. Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies become partly sunny. Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Dense fog and very low stratus remain the primary concern overnight. HRRR output continues to expanded coverage of dense fog along and west of I-57. Dense fog potential appears lower along the Indiana border, but CMI and DEC are already 1/4SM FG and should remain VLIFR the rest of the night. Dense fog formation has slowed down in it`s westward expansion, as the stratus deck appears to preventing ideal radiational fog conditions. However, there will be an advection fog component under southerly winds, so dense fog should eventually form at every TAF location. The fog will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as late as 17z. Once the fog clears, the 00z/04 NAM is showing stratus could hold on through the afternoon east of I-55. GFS gets rid of the stratus eventually by evening at all TAF sites. Will keep some clearing at PIA and SPI in the west, under the dry push from the SW across western IL. Stratus re-development is indicated in the NAM soundings, with a layer of residual moisture around 1.5-2.5K ft. Little overall change in airmass through tomorrow evening should set the stage for fog developing again by late evening. Winds will generally remain south in the 5-11kt range over the next 24 hours. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... 713 PM CST ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JEE && .SHORT TERM... 229 PM CST THROUGH TONIGHT... THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS. THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. MTF && .LONG TERM... 254 PM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME. RODRIGUEZ && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S OR EVEN COOLER. CHICAGO ROCKFORD WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 RC/IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z... FOG IS ACTUALLY RETREATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WHILE IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. MDW APPEARS TO BE RIGHT NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT AND HAS RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT AND IMPROVED TO VFR. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WOULD ANTICIPATE THE LOW CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD MDW ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z... DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF RFD EAST TO PWK AND SOUTH THROUGH IKK PER 05Z OB/SATELLITE. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG WILL INCH EAST OVER ORD/MDW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SLOW/MINOR IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER MODELS TYPICALLY BRING CONDITIONS UP TOO FAST. ASSUMING WE DO MIX OUT/LIFT TO VFR FOR A WHILE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER SO SEE LITTLE REASON WHY WE WOULDNT SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF 180-220 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AND TIMING AT ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW. * MEDIUM IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. RC && .MARINE... 249 AM CST A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT...THEN TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LAKE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 732 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Dense fog has already started forming from Champaign and Rantoul to Decatur, east of the stratus cloud area that is drifting westward. HRRR and RAP model output has been consistent in indicating another night of widespread dense fog for a majority of our forecast area /FA/. The short term models have generally shown lower fog potential along the Indiana border. However, we have decided to issue a dense fog advisory for our entire FA from 9 pm to 10 am. Some clearing of the fog will develop from south to north after 9 am as southerly winds increase and low-mid clouds begin to arrive from the south. Low temps tonight will likely settle out only a few degrees below current readings, in the low to mid 50s. Highs tomorrow may need to be trimmed a couple degrees to account for the delayed morning heating under fog and low clouds. Some areas may even see stratus linger well into the afternoon, which would limit highs even further. Weather and sky grid updates are already available. Updated temps, dewpoints, winds will be available shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night, and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57 has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high temperatures around 70 degrees. Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the California coast, which will eject toward the area starting Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity minimal. The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week. However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period and beyond. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Dense fog and very low stratus remain the primary concern overnight. HRRR output continues to expanded coverage of dense fog along and west of I-57. Dense fog potential appears lower along the Indiana border, but CMI and DEC are already 1/4SM FG and should remain VLIFR the rest of the night. Dense fog formation has slowed down in it`s westward expansion, as the stratus deck appears to preventing ideal radiational fog conditions. However, there will be an advection fog component under southerly winds, so dense fog should eventually form at every TAF location. The fog will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as late as 17z. Once the fog clears, the 00z/04 NAM is showing stratus could hold on through the afternoon east of I-55. GFS gets rid of the stratus eventually by evening at all TAF sites. Will keep some clearing at PIA and SPI in the west, under the dry push from the SW across western IL. Stratus re-development is indicated in the NAM soundings, with a layer of residual moisture around 1.5-2.5K ft. Little overall change in airmass through tomorrow evening should set the stage for fog developing again by late evening. Winds will generally remain south in the 5-11kt range over the next 24 hours. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...BAK AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1129 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... 713 PM CST ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JEE && .SHORT TERM... 229 PM CST THROUGH TONIGHT... THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS. THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. MTF && .LONG TERM... 254 PM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME. RODRIGUEZ && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S OR EVEN COOLER. CHICAGO ROCKFORD WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 RC/IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF RFD EAST TO PWK AND SOUTH THROUGH IKK PER 05Z OB/SATELLITE. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG WILL INCH EAST OVER ORD/MDW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SLOW/MINOR IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER MODELS TYPICALLY BRING CONDITIONS UP TOO FAST. ASSUMING WE DO MIX OUT/LIFT TO VFR FOR A WHILE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER SO SEE LITTLE REASON WHY WE WOULDNT SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF 180-220 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AND TIMING AT ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW. * MEDIUM IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS. SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. RC && .MARINE... 315 PM CST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SPEEDS STEADILY INCREASING. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WHATEVER FOG DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT SHOULD ERODE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE...INITIALLY SOUTHERLY BUT THEN TURNING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS TIME BUT WITH THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER SPEEDS CONTINUING...COULD SEE FORECASTED HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
833 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 833 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING FOR ALL AREAS...AND TO WORK IN LATEST TEMP TRENDS FROM THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE TRENDED TO MORE LIGHTER...WHICH IS GOING TO AMPLIFY THE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS...HAVE LEFT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY 5-10F. FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE). .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECOMING WNW BY 03Z...THEN VEERING TO THE NNW BY 17Z FRIDAY AROUND 10KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
511 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD...THE REGION IS CONTINUING TO SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS CLOUD COVER FROM THE TAIL-END OF YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM IS FINALLY LEAVING THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS THE TRI STATE REGION WILL BE AFFORDED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE TO DROP TEMPS CWA-WIDE. AS OF 00Z...TEMPS ARE RANGING AROUND 40F WEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TO THE EAST. THE TREND DOWNWARD WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE. UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST PARAMETERS BASED ON LATEST OBS TREND OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL RE-ASSESS FOR NEXT ESTF UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY 5-10F. FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE). .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECOMING WNW BY 03Z...THEN VEERING TO THE NNW BY 17Z FRIDAY AROUND 10KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY 5-10F. FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE). .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 432 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. NNW WINDS 5-10KTS BECOMING WNW BY 03Z...THEN VEERING TO THE NNW BY 17Z FRIDAY AROUND 10KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ...Updated for Aviation... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 A narrow but expanding band of showers was developing across the far southwest counties this afternoon, as far east as Liberal and Ulysses. This shower band is associated with an advancing upper cold trough just behind a surface 850 mb frontal boundary about top clear the CWA line in the southwest. Clouds have continued to expand during the afternoon elsewhere across the the area behind the boundary, leaving the south central Kansas counties in locations line Pratt Medicine Lodge and Coldwater sunny all afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday) ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The HRRR has continued to expand the pops eastward through the entire southern half of the forecast through the late afternoon as the wave translates across the area. A narrow corridor may pick up on the order of one tenth of an inch of rain in while most of the rest of the area will see scattered brief showers with little accumulation. As the high pressure expands across the area tonight, winds will gradually subside to light and northerly. The next couple of day will lead to overall cooler temperatures. Higher dewpoint immediately behind the boundary lends itself to some uncertainty in just how cool temperatures may fall in the eastern portion of the area, which will limit the eastward extent of tonight`s freeze warning. Temperatures will warm back toward the 60 degree mark with light winds on Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday) ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Colder air is likely across the entire forecast area by early Saturday morning as the pacific surface high pressure expands across the Central Plains this weekend. This will be the coldest morning of the forecast period with the western counties very likely falling into the upper 20s in the western counties. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING) ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Light showers will exit the area with an upper trough early this evening. Northwest winds around 12kt will become light around 5kt from the west to southwest with clearing skies. VFR conditions will prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 34 60 32 54 / 40 10 10 0 GCK 32 59 29 54 / 30 20 20 0 EHA 30 58 29 53 / 30 10 10 0 LBL 34 61 30 55 / 40 10 10 0 HYS 34 59 30 54 / 10 10 20 0 P28 39 62 35 57 / 30 0 10 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for KSZ045-046-064-065-077>080-086>088. Freeze Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Friday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1038 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1038 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT COOLER READINGS IN THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS AS THEY HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S. STILL EXPECTING THESE TMEPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN RISE AS CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG WITH WINDS. TIMING OF RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES RIGHT AROUND DAWN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE PRECIPITAITON CHANCES LATE TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT CURVES TO REFLECT CURRENT VALUES. THIS MEANT A SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WITH RIDGES STAYING MILDER. ALL IN ALL FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL SEND GRIDS/ZFP WITH UPDATED CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL HELP TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD KY TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS NE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STRUNG OUT MORE PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW DOWN. IT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD EASILY GENERATE SHOWERS. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ONCE IT PASSES...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER SE KY...POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BRISK...AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SET UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SW US. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EWD AND WEAKENS. MODELS NOW SHOW A LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. BEYOND MONDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT REGARDING THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH KY NEXT THURSDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID...STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND BUT NUDGED TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LINGERING ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DROPS SE OF THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND IN THE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY...SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ON SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BUT WON/T LAST LONG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...RAIN RETURNS BY THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHERE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 706 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE BIG DOWNTURN IN CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING A CHANGE TO MVFR FROM 12-18Z. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONGER SHOWER COULD CONTAIN SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...KAS
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 930 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 928 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Forecast is unfolding largely as expected tonight. Isentropic ascent on the nose of a 50-60 knot low-level jet has led to showers with a few embedded thunderstorms breaking out across portions southern IL and southern IN. This activity should mainly affect southern IN and far northern KY over the next few hours. Attention will then turn toward the southwest as a loosely-organized QLCS has broken out across portions of AR/OK/TX. The latest SPC mesoanalysis data shows the edge of the surface-based instability only extends up to southwestern AR, with all activity north of that likely being elevated. This jives well with the latest NWS warnings, as the only warning currently in effect is over southeastern OK. Expect this QLCS to continue to slowly weaken over the next couple hours as it outruns instability. Forecast uncertainty decreases a bit towards 09/10Z Friday morning as the latest hi-res guidance suggests what is left of the QLCS may run into some better surface- based instability being advected up from portions of the Southeast. However, as this occurs the better synoptic forcing will be pushing well to the north of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, while some slight strengthening of the QLCS may occur across portions of TN and south- central KY as it intersects this better moisture/instability axis (as latest HRRR runs suggest), think storms will continue to remain below severe limits. Main threat with any strong storm will continue to be winds in excess of 40mph. Rest of the forecast looks on track. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Broad trough with embedded vortmaxes now crossing the Plains states. A cold front runs ahead of this trough, from a surface low over Minnesota south to the Red River Valley. These features will shift east northeastward in the short term, with the cold front forecast to cross our region Friday morning, perhaps lingering a little in our southeast into early Friday afternoon. We are seeing light rains well out ahead of the front, as a couple of vortmaxes are moving quickly through the southwesterly flow aloft over us. These showers may clip our northwest forecast area this afternoon and evening. Coverage should ramp up later in the night, as a low level jet gets cranking. Latest guidance has 850 mb winds peaking over the northern half of the region, at 50-60 knots. This flow could allow for some organization of cells into a line. Some high-res guidance is also indicative of stronger elements within that line, so we will have to watch for the potential to mix these winds aloft down overnight and early Friday morning. Expect weakening of the line as the low-level jet shifts east of the region during the morning. However the presence of the front in our east along with some heating may allow for a new line to form in our far southeast forecast area in the afternoon. Additional upper disturbances also may linger the rain chances into the night and even Saturday morning across south central KY...until a secondary trough behind the one coming through Friday can push through the Midwest. We should continue to have above normal temperatures tonight, but that trend will end the cold front passage. Temps will fall mid afternoon Friday, behind northwesterly winds. Then lows Saturday moring should be closer to normal, though still a little above under that cloud cover in our south. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Saturday will be dry for most of the region, though have to hang on to some lingering pops across south central KY until that above- mentioned trough can clear us. High pressure building in across the Midwest should give us a cold morning Sunday, with lows around freezing in our cold spots. Highs Sunday should only get to the 50s. Monday continues to look wetter as models converge on a solution of an upper low moving northeast across the Midwest and dragging up some moisture from the Gulf. Still think the best shot for precip is over our south, where have gone with high-end chance pops. Have brought the slight chance line up to the Ohio River. Cloud cover should keep temperatures cooler that day. Then Tuesday and Wednesday we should warm to around normal under drier conditions. Thursday is still a question mark, as the Euro is slower with an upper level system moving out of the western U.S. The GFS marches a line of precip through here Wed. night and Thursday. Given uncertainty in this time frame, did not lean too far away from SuperBlend guidance. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 607 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 VFR conditions will persist this evening, before a strong storm system takes aim on the Ohio Valley overnight into Friday. Moisture being drawn up ahead of this system will bring lower cigs overnight along with a few showers which will likely affect KSDF late this evening. Will not hit the cigs as hard as some of the guidance suggests as the low-levels should remain mixed enough to keep cigs in the low-end MVFR range. Late tonight into Friday morning, more widespread showers along with a few thunderstorms will affect mainly KBWG and KSDF as a cold front and strong low-level jet approach the region. Debated adding LLWS into the KSDF forecast, but think surface gusts will stay up enough to leave out of the forecast for now. The main threat for LLWS would be in the 7-12Z timeframe. The surface front will push through all sites through the day on Friday, turning winds more to the west/northwest. With its passage, precip will come to an end and cigs will rise to VFR. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........KJD Short Term.....RJS Long Term......RJS Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .AVIATION... LOW VFR TO OCNL HIGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST AN OCCASIONAL PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS JUST BEGUN TO ERODE FROM THE SW...WITH KTYR AND KLFK ABOUT TO GO SCT TO SKC. DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY WHERE THIS OCCURS AS TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE DEWPOINTS. CLOUDS TO LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN WHERE SKIES BECMG SKC FOR TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS EAST...EXCEPT FOR KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS...WHICH MAY LOCK IN TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WED NIGHT./VII/. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ DISCUSSION... MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY EXPANDING THE AREA OF PATCHY FOG AND ADDED PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME TEXAS WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH TREND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ AVIATION... MOSTLY SOLID MVFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 04/06Z TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...AT MAINLY KTXK...KELD...AND KMLU TERMINALS. HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN ON WED...WITH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NE TX...WHERE S-SE BREEZES INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS./VII/. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ DISCUSSION... IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT 10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES. OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40 MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80 TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60 ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40 TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70 GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50 LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1014 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY EXPANDING THE AREA OF PATCHY FOG AND ADDED PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME TEXAS WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH TREND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ AVIATION... MOSTLY SOLID MVFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 04/06Z TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...AT MAINLY KTXK...KELD...AND KMLU TERMINALS. HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN ON WED...WITH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NE TX...WHERE S-SE BREEZES INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS./VII/. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ DISCUSSION... IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT 10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES. OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40 MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80 TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60 ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40 TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70 GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50 LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 06/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
231 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG LATER THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR MARINE...MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1230 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE INCREASING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DID MANAGE TO ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO START TO RISE IN OHIO. THIS WAS RATHER WELL DEPICTED IN THE HRRR RUN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE STATISTICAL PRODUCTS FAIL TO ADEQUATELY CAPTURE IT. AS A RESULT...DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. LOWS WERE SUMMARILY REDUCED FOR MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. LIKEWISE...WITH A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. OTHERWISE...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVEN AS DEWPOINTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN BACK INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...EVEN WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY BE SEEN IN SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. CL OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS PROGGED WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40 MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW WITH TIMING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 702 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THEN GO WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN. THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...04 MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE INFLUENCE. WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE. WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LSZ246>251-265>267. GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE INFLUENCE. WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE. WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THRU TNGT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LO PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROF TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LO PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL AT LEAST REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W LAKE DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS ON FRI. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LSZ246>251-265>267. GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE CENTER ON POPS ON THU/FRI ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF. GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE SW FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LO PRES MAY THEN BRING IN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR TO GENERATE SOME LK EFFECT PCPN LATER FRI AND SAT BEFORE TRAILING HI PRES BRINGS DRIER WX TO END THE WEEKEND. THU INTO FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS THERE WL BE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST LIFTING NE OUT OF THE WRN TROF DURING THIS TIME. SINCE THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT DISTURBANCES...A DEEPER LO PRES WL NOT DVLP UNTIL THESE SHRTWVS BEGIN TO PHASE ON FRI IN ONTARIO. WAVE OF LO PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO RIDE NE ALONG STNRY FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN ON THU...WITH BULK OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN PASSING TO THE W OF UPR MI UNDER SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. WL THUS CARRY HIER CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W. TEMPTED TO KEEP THE E HALF COMPLETELY DRY ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES WITH SHALLOW MSTR ADVECTED TO THE N IN STEADY SSW FLOW WARRANTS SOME SCHC POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS A MENTION OF SOME FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG OVER THE ERN CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI. DESPITE PLENTY OF LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED AS HI AS 12-14C. A BETTER CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WL ARRIVE ON THU NGT IN ADVANCE OF SECOND DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE SW. MOST OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THIS AREA OF FORCING ALMOST COMPLETELY MISSING THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE. WL TEND TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z GFS/CNDN/ECMWF AND PAINT THE HIER LIKELY/CATEGORICL POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E UNDER THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVG/CORE OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV/AXIS OF PWAT UP TO 1.25 INCHES. WITH AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN AS WELL ACCOMPANYING SHIFTING SFC FNT ACRS THE AREA...SUSPECT RA TOTALS UP TO AN INCH WL BE PSBL OVER THE E HALF OF THE FA. SINCE THE GFS SHOWS SSI DROPPING TO ARND -1C OR SO OVER AXIS OF HIER PWAT AND UNDER SHARPER FORCING...ADDED A MENTION OF SCHC THUNDER. WSHFT TO WNW OVERNGT BEHIND THE FROPA/SFC LO SHIFTING INTO NW ONTARIO WL ALSO DRIVE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT DEEPER MSTR SHOULD EXIT BEFORE RA CAN CHANGE TO SN. STRONG CYC WNW FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 35-40 KTS...WL SUPPORT SOME LINGERING LK EFFECT TYPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF...WHERE THIS FLOW UPSLOPES...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -5C. BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE INCOMING LLVL AIRMASS WL BE ALSO DRIER...AS FCST SDNGS HINT AT A BIT OF AN INVERTED V SFC TO H9-85 T/TD PROFILE. WHILE THIS DRYING THAT WL LOWER NEAR SFC WBLB TEMP COULD SUPPORT A MIX WITH SOME SN OVER AT LEAST THE HIER TERRAIN...WOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE LIMITED POPS/QPF UNDER SOME PRONOUNCED DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE IN THE NW FLOW ALF/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING...SOME ASSOCIATED DEEPER MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -8C WL SUPPORT LINGERING LK EFFECT TYPE RA/SN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON FRI NGT/SAT IN AREAS FAVORED BY THE FCST WNW WINDS. ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF TRAILING SHRTWV RDG/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/LOWERING INVRN BASE TOWARD 3K FT AGL DURING SAT NGT WL BRING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THIS PCPN. EXTENDED...THE HI PRES MOVING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WL BRING DRY WX TO THE UPR LKS ON SUN AND MON. STEADY WSW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS HI WL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA...WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ARND 5C ON MON. SOME RA MAY RETURN NEXT TUE ALONG A LO PRES TROF EXTENDING NE INTO THE UPR LKS FM A LO PRES DVLPG IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THRU TNGT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LO PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROF TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LO PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL AT LEAST REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W LAKE DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS ON FRI. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LSZ246>251-265>267. GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING. DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD. I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY.. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MEASUREABLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE LOW STRATUS DECK AND EXTENT OF THE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS MORNING...LEADING ME TO WONDER HOW THICK THE FOG MAY ACTUALLY BE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER HIGH THAT IFR AND A FEW LIFR CIGS WILL RESULT...AS WIND FORECASTS OF 5+ KTS MAKE DENSER FOG A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE. CURRENTLY STICKING WITH IFR VSBY AT THE MOMENT. AS THE MOISTURE IS THERE...WE MAY NEED TO REASSESS THE SITUATION IN THE 00Z UPDATE. ASIDE FROM THE CIGS AND VSBY CONCERNS...GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE ARE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY HINDER KMKG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND. INLAND CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN. THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...JAM HYDROLOGY...04 MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE 60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE REALIZED. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MVFR HOLDING ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED ON EARLY TAFS. ONLY AREAS TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND A BETTER CHC OF VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE KRWF/KEAU WHERE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED. ELSEWHERE...VERY LOW CHC OF GOING TO VFR THIS AFTN...WITH SOME AREAS HOLDING ONTO IFR CONDS THRU 20-21Z. EVEN AREAS THAT DO SEE VFR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LOW CLOUDS /MVFR THEN IFR/ WILL LIKELY FORM AND SPREAD ACROSS MPX TAF AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED -DZ/DZ OVERNIGHT AS CIGS LOWER AND -SHRA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE SOUTH/SE DIRECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN...AND POSSIBLY HOLDING ON THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. KMSP... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AND SCATTER OUT LATER TODAY. THE BEST AREAS OF SEEING VFR CONDS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WI BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN. THERE MAYBE A FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING OF VFR CONDS...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN...AND POSSIBLY HOLDING THRU THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT AREA AFT 00Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS. SAT...VFR. WIND W 10 KTS. SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 15-20 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE 60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE REALIZED. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIG LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT TREND OF THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING. WENT WITH SOME FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIX GIVING A MORE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP OFF THIS EVENING OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 06Z AT KAXN AND AFTER 08Z AT KRWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO BEGAN TREND WITH VCSH FOR NOW. CEILING SHOULD TREND TOWARD IFR AFTER 06Z TO THE EAST AS WELL. KMSP...CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT APPEARS IF A LOW END MVFR CIG DID DEVELOP IT WOULD BE 14Z-18Z PER TREND OF THE 09Z HRRR. VFR INTO THE EVENING BECOMING MVFR CIG/BR AFTER 06Z AND IFR AFTER 08Z. PRIMARILY SOUTHER WIND WITH SOME GUTS TO 22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DARK. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU AFETRNOON...VFR WITH MVFR SHRA LIKELY ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW. FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE 60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE REALIZED. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VERY TRICKY CEILING FCST DUE TO HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY THIS EVENING. SSE SURGE OF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT IN DOUBT BUT HOW IT INTERACTS UNDERNEATH THE NIGHTLY INVERSION PLUS THE EVOLVING MARINE LAYER SAGGING SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DETERMINE THE BREADTH OF IFR CEILINGS TNGT. ATTM...ALL SITES ARE SKC SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE AS SUCH. HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGH DEGREE OF PESSIMISM FROM THE PREVIOUS ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES AND MAINLY CONFINED IFR CONDS TO TEMPO GROUPS WHILE STICKING WITH THE PREVAILING MVFR IDEA THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED AMONG THE HRRR/SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...AM NOT THINKING MVFR CONDS WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INDICATE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TMRW. KMSP...WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT CONDS AT KMSP THIS SET. HAVE CONFINED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1700 FT CEILINGS ARND AND JUST AFTER THE MRNG PUSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT SUCH CONDS MAY BE REALIZED...PARTICULARLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS AND STRONGER SLY WINDS SCOUR OUT LLVL MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE ATMOS. HAVE SHOWN MVFR CEILINGS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR IFR-OR-WORSE CONDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO AMENDMENTS MAY WELL STILL BE NEEDED. ONCE INTO THE AFTN...HIGH CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW. FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WE ADDED FOG THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH SOME DENSE FOG OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT AND WE MAY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. WE WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BY 01Z. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND 950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4 KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 STRATUS COVERED MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PARK FALLS HAVE REMAINED VFR AND THE STRATUS THAT THE MODELS INDICATED EARLIER HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL BROUGHT LOWER CEILINGS INTO KBRD/KHYR LATER TONIGHT AS THERE ENOUGH INDICATIONS THAT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY FORM. FOG WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY VERSUS EASTERLY FURTHER NORTH. MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 42 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70 INL 42 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70 BRD 48 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60 HYR 40 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70 ASX 43 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001>003. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...TENTINGER AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY... DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VERY TRICKY CEILING FCST DUE TO HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY THIS EVENING. SSE SURGE OF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT IN DOUBT BUT HOW IT INTERACTS UNDERNEATH THE NIGHTLY INVERSION PLUS THE EVOLVING MARINE LAYER SAGGING SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DETERMINE THE BREADTH OF IFR CEILINGS TNGT. ATTM...ALL SITES ARE SKC SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE AS SUCH. HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGH DEGREE OF PESSIMISM FROM THE PREVIOUS ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES AND MAINLY CONFINED IFR CONDS TO TEMPO GROUPS WHILE STICKING WITH THE PREVAILING MVFR IDEA THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED AMONG THE HRRR/SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...AM NOT THINKING MVFR CONDS WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INDICATE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TMRW. KMSP...WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT CONDS AT KMSP THIS SET. HAVE CONFINED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1700 FT CEILINGS ARND AND JUST AFTER THE MRNG PUSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT SUCH CONDS MAY BE REALIZED...PARTICULARLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS AND STRONGER SLY WINDS SCOUR OUT LLVL MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE ATMOS. HAVE SHOWN MVFR CEILINGS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR IFR-OR-WORSE CONDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO AMENDMENTS MAY WELL STILL BE NEEDED. ONCE INTO THE AFTN...HIGH CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW. FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
919 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION MOVES IN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP REACHING OUR NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO LACK OF DECENT INSTABILITY...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CURRENT POP/WX FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION. DO NOT EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL MUCH BELOW CURRENT READINGS DUE TO THIS. LATEST TEMP TENDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECST...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST. /27/ && .AVIATION...AS SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO KEEP VSBYS FROM GOING MUCH BELOW MVFR IN FOG. BETTER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LOW CLOUD DECK FORMATION. ALREADY SEEING AREAS OF LOW CLOUD FORMING ALONG THE MS RIVER AND WEST. WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS TOO...LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. AREAS OF RAIN WILL REACH GLH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THEY MOVED EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY./26/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A 592DAM CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHILE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NOSING IN FROM THE CAROLINAS. TOGETHER THESE HIGHS HELPED KEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL TO OUR WEST. THEY ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE RECENT PESKY CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LED TO RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING AT LEAST TIED AT MERIDIAN AND HATTIESBURG AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH OUR CWA BY MORNING. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN OUR SOUTH WERE AROUND 70F. AS A RESULT FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE UPPER 40S. SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WET WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT NEARS OUR CWA. RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EDGE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. OUR PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BY FRIDAY EVENING. OVERALL...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY BUT WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT. THE BIGGER ISSUE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA FOR A DURATION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN SW-NE ORIENTED ACROSS OUR CWA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY LEAD MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLOODING IN THE HWO. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP DROP A 1030MB HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING OUR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA SATURDAY EVENING. RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL END OVER OUR CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING BUT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAINLY OVER OUR EAST AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. /22/ OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER AIR TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS SO LOW TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING ABOVE NORMAL. GOING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY POSITIVE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS REBUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 70 81 67 67 / 14 60 91 92 MERIDIAN 68 82 68 71 / 12 55 77 91 VICKSBURG 70 82 64 66 / 21 62 92 90 HATTIESBURG 69 84 70 75 / 12 45 38 75 NATCHEZ 69 81 67 68 / 18 60 91 92 GREENVILLE 69 77 59 64 / 47 74 71 69 GREENWOOD 68 80 61 64 / 29 74 89 81 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
354 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2015 Remnant stratus from Tuesday morning survived across some areas in southeast MO and southwestern IL, edging southern and eastern sections of STL Metro, and it was from here that this current round of stratus and fog has developed. Stratus, thanks to the southerly low level flow, has since expanded to cover nearly the entire CWA save central and parts of northeast MO. Additional stratus that is a bit higher is also surging northward from southern MO and far western KY. Dense fog has been most prominent on the southeastern edge of the stratus and has really not moved for much of the night-- persisting essentially where the remnant stratus was at the start of last night: from roughly KFAM to K3LF, including much of STL Metro East. Elsewhere, VSBY reductions exist, but they are not as significant nor as widespread. Analysis of several short-term hi-res model solutions appears to show the most persistent area of dense fog remaining right where it is, with minimal expansion perhaps to the NNW with the southerly flow. This is currently covered well with the Dense Fog Advisory, although it appears we will need to extend it to 16z (10am). However, areas in west-central IL and northeast MO look to be shaky with the Advisory as it stands now with better potential for more isolated pockets of significant VSBY reduction versus widespread and are being looked at for an early cancellation. Area of slightly higher stratus surging thru southern MO and far southern IL currently looks to eventually envelope the entire CWA by late this morning. Given the time of day it is pushing north, into what has been clear skies all night in central MO with minimal dewpoint depressions, could see a brief episode of dense fog here as well along this stratus` leading edge. Otherwise, gradual clearing in the afternoon is anticipated areawide with the most persistent cloud cover expected in the northern and eastern CWA. Temperatures will once again be a challenge, with our area torn between areas that stay cloudy all day barely breaking into the low 60s, and areas that see sun by early afternoon which will likely break into the low to mid 70s. Have essentially leaned towards the sunnier, warmer MAV MOS solution for most of the CWA except in the north and east, where the cooler and cloudier MET MOS was favored. As a footnote, for a few days now, various models have hinted at the possibility of isolated SHRA in parts of southeast MO and southern IL this afternoon. Hard to pin down what is driving this and so will continue PoPs in these areas just below mentionable (10-14%) for now. TES .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2015 Tonight thru Thursday night SW flow is expected to be firmly established at the beginning of the prd with a strong ridge across the ern CONUS and a significant trof digging into the intermountain west. Tonight will literally be the calm before the storm. Lee side cyclogenesis will already be underway by tonight across the cntrl high plains. The low will begin to lift NE in response to an approaching short wave as it is ejected from the long wave trof across the west. The upper lvl wave is fcst to lift thru the region Thu night along with the attendant cold front. WAA will already be in full swing by this evng but with the very dry nature of the existing atmosphere...it will take a considerable amount of time to saturate the air mass...likely not until sometime Thu mrng across cntrl MO. Precip should then make steady progress to the N and E thru the remainder of the day. The cold front will bring an end to the precip from west to east Thu night. Decent moisture return means Dps should recover into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will produce limited instability on the order of a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE. But as is often the case with cool season events...this will be a low CAPE/high shear environment...with 100KTS expected at H500 and around 150 KTS at H300 by Thursday night. This should be more than enough to generate storms. Some of these could be strong...possibly severe with the main threat being damaging straight line winds. As such...SPC has the entire CWA in a marginal risk...which given the parameters looks justified. Although FROPA is fcst for late evng into the overnight hrs...still think the forcing assoc with this system is enough to keep the threat of thunder going thru the night. All precip should be east of the FA by Friday mrng. Friday thru Tuesday A strong 1030mb high is fcst to build into the region in concert with an upper lvl ridge which will produce a seasonally cool wknd with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Center of the high passes to the east of the FA by Sunday with sthrly flow returning. Upper pattern returns to SW flow by Monday as another trof moves onshore along the west coast. Guidance begins to diverge at this point as it deals with this energy towards midweek. The ECMWF moves the exiting SFC high into the SE US early next week which sets the stage for a WAA event on Tuesday on the backside of the retreating SFC ridge whereas the GFS has the SFC ridge axis extending from the Mid-Atlantic SW along the Gulf Coast early next week effectively cutting off return flow moisture. They continue to diverge wrt the upper lvl trof...but that is beyond the end of the fcst prd thankfully. 2% && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Stratus deck as continue to slowly advect north and east while also expanding. Should get to KCOU still around 0900 UTC. IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...though later and not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights. Specifics for KSTL: IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Look for VFR conditions by midday. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...around 0900 UTC...though not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 74 60 72 54 / 5 5 40 90 Quincy 66 57 69 50 / 0 5 40 90 Columbia 73 58 69 49 / 0 5 60 80 Jefferson City 73 57 70 50 / 0 5 60 80 Salem 69 58 72 59 / 10 5 30 90 Farmington 72 58 69 58 / 10 5 50 90 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Franklin MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL- Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 708 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Dense fog is already starting to form in parts of south central and southwest Illinois this evening. Expect this fog will spread westward this evening and overnight at least to the Mississippi river and into eastern Missouri. Will go ahead and issue a dense fog advisory for these areas. Stronger gradient winds in the boundary layer overnight across central and northeast Missouri may keep the dense fog out, so will leave them out of the advisory foe the moment and watch what happens. Advisory will be out shortly and will run from 900 PM to 900 AM Wednesday morning. Carney && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile. It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10 degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively high surface dew points for early November. GKS .LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area, into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck. This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may not be quite a persistent as today. Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud trends become more clear. The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern remains with the storm system approaching the region on Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday, but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front, and deep moisture all interact over the region. Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges across the area during the late evening and overnight hours. Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern attm. Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm. Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into the area for the start of the new work week. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Stratus deck as continue to slowly advect north and east while also expanding. Should get to KCOU still around 0900 UTC. IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...though later and not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights. Specifics for KSTL: IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Look for VFR conditions by midday. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...around 0900 UTC...though not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 57 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30 Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30 Columbia 55 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50 Jefferson City 54 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50 Salem 52 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30 Farmington 55 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO- St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS NOSES INTO THE CWA. A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO ERN NEB. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...QUITE LIKELY SCT -TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED SFC BNDRY OVER NERN NEB SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY AT KOFK. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR THEN AT ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS NOSES INTO THE CWA. A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS MRNG AND WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE KOMA/KLNK TAF WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS DECK MAY GET AS FAR NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE KOFK AND WE WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP HERE FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN/EVNG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES. WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOMA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ/SHRA...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK BUT WILL HOLD OF INCLUDING NOW. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
350 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS NOSES INTO THE CWA. A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. STRATUS DECK EDGING INTO KS/MO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD...AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL AFFECT KOMA...AS WELL AS AT LEAST SKIRTING IF NOT OVERTAKING KLNK/KOFK. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT KOFK/KLNK...AND PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT KOMA...FOR A PERIOD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ADDED THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON TRAVEL ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AND HIGHWAY 550 OVERNIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ABRUPT COOL-DOWN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...1038 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015... .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK UP BY THE EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD IMPACT WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO SUCH AS KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015... .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7 TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE. THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS. MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE TO A COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502>506-510>514. && $$ 11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK UP BY THE EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD IMPACT WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO SUCH AS KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015... .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7 TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE. THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS. MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE TO A COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...KEEPING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A KTCC TO KROW LINE. PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. SOME BREAKS IN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD HAMPER WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO SUCH AS KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015... .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7 TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE. THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS. MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE TO A COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7 TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE. THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS. MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE TO A COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 52 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE W OF THE CONTDVD FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD DROP NEAR 8500 FT TONIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6500 FEET ACROSS FAR NW AREAS AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WED AFTN. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN LOWER FURTHER WED NIGHT. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/SHSN ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MT OBSCURATIONS WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS WED. ISOLD TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND N CENTRAL NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WED. 44 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 50 29 48 24 / 70 50 30 0 DULCE........................... 48 25 42 13 / 90 60 50 5 CUBA............................ 51 27 42 21 / 70 50 40 0 GALLUP.......................... 47 25 44 18 / 70 50 20 0 EL MORRO........................ 50 23 42 17 / 60 50 30 0 GRANTS.......................... 53 25 47 18 / 50 40 20 0 QUEMADO......................... 53 29 43 21 / 40 40 30 0 GLENWOOD........................ 60 33 51 26 / 60 30 10 0 CHAMA........................... 47 22 36 14 / 90 70 50 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 29 43 25 / 60 40 30 0 PECOS........................... 52 30 43 24 / 50 30 20 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 24 41 17 / 60 50 30 5 RED RIVER....................... 47 20 34 13 / 70 60 40 5 ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 25 38 15 / 70 40 20 0 TAOS............................ 53 26 42 18 / 60 40 20 0 MORA............................ 51 28 44 21 / 50 40 10 0 ESPANOLA........................ 55 29 47 21 / 60 30 20 0 SANTA FE........................ 52 27 43 22 / 60 40 20 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 30 46 24 / 60 30 20 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 33 48 28 / 50 30 30 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 36 52 31 / 50 20 20 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 30 53 25 / 50 20 20 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 30 52 25 / 50 20 20 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 61 32 54 28 / 50 20 20 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 58 34 52 28 / 50 20 20 0 SOCORRO......................... 64 35 59 28 / 50 20 10 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 29 45 26 / 50 20 30 0 TIJERAS......................... 56 30 47 27 / 50 20 30 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 28 51 19 / 50 20 20 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 30 46 25 / 40 20 10 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 33 50 27 / 40 20 20 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 60 36 54 29 / 40 20 10 0 RUIDOSO......................... 57 33 50 29 / 30 20 10 0 CAPULIN......................... 64 31 53 22 / 20 40 20 0 RATON........................... 63 28 53 21 / 20 40 20 5 SPRINGER........................ 61 28 51 22 / 20 20 10 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 57 29 50 23 / 30 30 10 0 CLAYTON......................... 72 36 60 28 / 10 30 10 0 ROY............................. 67 32 55 27 / 20 30 10 0 CONCHAS......................... 70 36 57 29 / 20 20 5 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 70 37 59 31 / 20 20 10 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 75 40 64 31 / 5 20 10 0 CLOVIS.......................... 72 39 62 33 / 5 10 10 0 PORTALES........................ 74 40 63 33 / 5 10 10 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 73 39 63 31 / 5 10 10 0 ROSWELL......................... 76 40 68 32 / 5 5 5 0 PICACHO......................... 67 36 62 29 / 10 10 5 0 ELK............................. 62 36 54 28 / 10 20 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514. $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS INTO EARLY AFTN WITH SPARSE COVERAGE CURRENTLY OVER AREA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 INDICATE VERY LITTLE COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WHILE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME INCREASE FROM S TO N. WEAK MCV IS EVIDENT IN ROTATION OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF NE SC...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST SRN PART OF AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHC N TO CHC S REST OF MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO LIKELY SRN 2/3 THIS AFTN. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS MOST AREAS WTIH LOW CLOUDS LIMITING INSOLATION. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST TRYING DETERMINE THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORCING ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE MODEST LIFT, ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK GOING AND PRODUCE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AS WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF RUNS WERE VERY BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS TO DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH QPF AMOUNTS MUCH LESS THAN THE ECMWF. NOT SURE IF THIS WAS DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE ECMWF OR IF THE MODEL IS PICKING UP ON SOME KIND OF DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH A WELL DEFINED 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 " THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD PERSIST ALONG WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S, HOWEVER, THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WENT WITH THE GUIDANCE BUT WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NC AND OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHEST POPS COAST (LIKELY) AND CHANCE INLAND DURING THE EVENING. THEN WILL INDICATE LESSER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST FORCING SLIDES. THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING DENSE FOG. MILD LOWS WILL CONTINUE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THU...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE RAIN THU...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. TEMPS WARMING INTO FRI...WITH DRYING AND CLEARING. FRI LOOKS LIKE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR FRI WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E SUN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DUE TO LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NNW INTO MON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO WITH MOISTURE SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS POPS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...AND FAVORED A DRIER SOLUTION JUST KEEPING SC POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON...IN THE 60S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...CLOUD BASES HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE KOAJ/KEWN 12-18ZTODAY AS AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE. WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY TO VFR LATE TODAY DUE TO CONVECTIVE MIXING BUT WITH CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW PERSISTING THINK LOW CLOUDS AND/OR DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THU...AS RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND LOWER CEILINGS LIFT. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR TO RETURN BY LATE THU AND INTO EARLY SAT. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AND SAT MORNINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS SAT EVENING/SAT NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN SUN. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX WORDING PER NEAR TERM SECTION...NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE WATERS WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE VEERING FLOW FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE GFS MODEL INDICATED STRONGER SE FLOW TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS THU. PRED E/SE WINDS 5-15KT THU WITH SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WNW FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOVING THROUGH SAT EVENING/SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE PRE-FRONTAL SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. STRONG CAA SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MOST OF WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAC/JME NEAR TERM...JME/JBM SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JME/CQD MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 958 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. BETTER THAN 150 METER HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER NORTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND BETTER THAN 250 METER HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST FOR FRI OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLOUDY AND TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING. AREA SHOULD REMAINS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE SOUTH. WILL INCREASE TEMPS NORTH AND DECREASE SOME SOUTH. TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH RADAR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS DEEPENED ABOUT 10 MB IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. RAP MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED LOWER LAYER TO BECOME MORE ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AROUND 900 HPA. WINDS AROUND 900 HPA DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE E/NE...AS EXPECTED. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE WHAT OCCURS CLOSER TO SUNSET (IF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS)...ALTHOUGH PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE WAY DOWN BY THEN WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF BAUDETTE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NOT SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA (NEAR THE SD BORDER)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. STRONGEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NE OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE BAUDETTE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S SAT MORNING (IF WE CAN CLEAR). MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS..ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. A SW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY TUESDAY...AND A SFC LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE WY ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...BRINING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT NIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR THOSE DETAILS AT THIS POINT. GROUND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITHOUT A DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP...ANY SNOW MID NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHORT LIVED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DOES SHOW A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH P6SM OVER MOST OF EASTERN ND AND 3 MILES OR GREATER OVER NORTHWEST MN EXCEPT FOR BDE WITH AROUND 1 MILE VISIBILITY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MN. CIGS RANGED FROM 3 TO 26 HUNDRED FT ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT CIGS TO RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HOPPES SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS DEEPENED ABOUT 10 MB IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. RAP MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED LOWER LAYER TO BECOME MORE ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AROUND 900 HPA. WINDS AROUND 900 HPA DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE E/NE...AS EXPECTED. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE WHAT OCCURS CLOSER TO SUNSET (IF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS)...ALTHOUGH PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE WAY DOWN BY THEN WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF BAUDETTE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NOT SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA (NEAR THE SD BORDER)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. STRONGEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NE OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE BAUDETTE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S SAT MORNING (IF WE CAN CLEAR). MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS..ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. A SW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY TUESDAY...AND A SFC LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE WY ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...BRINING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT NIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR THOSE DETAILS AT THIS POINT. GROUND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITHOUT A DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP...ANY SNOW MID NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHORT LIVED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DOES SHOW A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH P6SM OVER MOST OF EASTERN ND AND 3 MILES OR GREATER OVER NORTHWEST MN EXCEPT FOR BDE WITH AROUND 1 MILE VISIBILITY. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MN. CIGS RANGED FROM 3 TO 26 HUNDRED FT ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT CIGS TO RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HOPPES SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE AM HOURS. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS KEYING IN ON A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES...DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A S/WV IMPULSE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO EASTERN ND LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD BE MUCH MORE INTERESTING AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE THROUGH THE AREA AS REDUCED VISIBILITY REPORTS ARE STARTING TO COME IN THROUGHOUT MANY PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...AREA WEBCAMS ARE STARTING TO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF FOG THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY. LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER A FEW LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005- 012-013. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
727 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCE CLOUD TOPS SPREADING NE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION BUT THERE IS SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR PREDICTION. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND OTHER NEAR TERM ELEMENTS && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDS MAY GUST 30 TO 40 MPH IN PLACES...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FEW NEAR OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. FAIRLY DRY AIR QUICKLY PUNCHES IN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THINK THE RAIN WILL BE DONE IN TOL AND FDY BY 10 AM...DONE AT MFD TO CLE BY 1 PM AND PROBABLY DONE AT ERI BY 3 PM. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY START TO FALL SOME AFTER THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE WILL START TO MAKE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE FRI NIGHT SO SOME SCT SHRA AND ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE SNOWBELT AND NEARBY AREAS. MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY SUN MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA TO DIMINISH THE THREAT. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES COULD TRY AND MIX IN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND AS THE COOL AIRMASS IS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER THIS WEEKS WARMTH WILL PROBABLY FEEL EVEN COLDER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS MONDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. TO OUR SOUTHWEST HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TN VLY. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NNE THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HOWEVER DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH THE GFS GIVING THE REGION A GLANCING BLOW MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOISTURE SQUARE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL FAVOR A TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS POINT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID LEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE CROSSED INTO OHIO FROM INDIANA. THE MAIN SHOW HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE FINE TUNED THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. WILL OMIT THUNDER FOR NOW GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN ARRIVES. SOME AREAS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOST OF THE AREA COULD BE CLEAR. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. SIMILAR GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA... && .MARINE... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BEGINNING ABOUT 7-8AM FRIDAY. BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE ESE OF THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED FLOW REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WEST HALF BY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH NEAR 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST HOWEVER A GRADIENT WILL REMAIN...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE BACK TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO IN THE COOLER AIR. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE MORE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
644 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT. COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COOLER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CANADA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER DID TRY TO ADD SHARPER GRADIENT TO THE POPS TO REFINE LOCAL TIMING OF BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIN CAPE PROFILE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENOUGH SO TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. CAPE LOOKS TO MAX OUT UNDER 500 J/KG...SO NOTHING REAL IMPRESSIVE. 850MB FLOW REALLY PICKS UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MAXING OUT AT 40-50KTS FROM 12Z-15Z. THE NAM THEN SHOWS 850MB WINDS STARTING TO SLACKEN SOME...30-40KTS BY THE TIME THE PRECIP MOVES IN. STILL...MORE DEVELOPED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS COULD MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SOUTHERN CWA BY EVENING. THIS WILL ACT TO HOLD THE FRONT UP SOME ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. FARTHER NORTHWEST...RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT APPEARS EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. STILL LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AT START OF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY WANE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. DRIER...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS BULLISH WITH A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE EURO RESTRAINS THE SAME FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. A TAD BIT DIFFICULT TO GENERATE A GOOD DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL GENERALIZED POPS OVER A PERIOD TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. OVERALL JET REMAINS RATHER ZONAL WHICH LENDS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK IS EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INVADE WV TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND GOOD VENTILATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION ALONG RIVER VALLEYS EXCEPT AT EKN WHERE MOUNTAINS BARRIER WILL KEEP CALM FLOW AND A DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE AND FOG FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG A COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. FLOW ALSO PICKING UP AHEAD OF THIS...WITH 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 40-50KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LLWS BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE. SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IT TAFS AT THIS POINT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE FOG MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AT EKN TONIGHT DUE TO GOOD VENTILATION. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE RAIN/STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
356 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE 04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAHALE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 73 47 64 / 40 50 10 0 HOBART OK 60 73 44 64 / 50 30 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 63 76 46 69 / 50 60 10 0 GAGE OK 54 71 37 64 / 40 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 61 73 43 64 / 30 50 10 0 DURANT OK 63 71 52 70 / 50 90 50 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 26/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1137 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE... AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH 850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST. SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 AGAIN...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WITH STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT/THURSDAY. SKIES ARE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT MID-DAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET. FURTHER WEST...THE PROGRESSION OF STRATUS AND COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS..BUT MAY OVERSPREAD KHON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK INTO VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO BUILD AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. LIFR TO VLIFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALL TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM... AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
538 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE... AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH 850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST. SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 531 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 CURRENTLY STRATUS IS DEVELOPING/ADVECTING NORTHWARD RIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND ALSO INTO THE STORM LAKE AREA. FEEL THAT IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING...THERE WAS LITTLE NEED TO CHANGE THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES WITH THE MENTION OF IFR TO LOWER END MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. CONTINUED TO PRIMARILY USE THE RAP MODEL FOR THE MORNING HOURS...THEN THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE NAM LOOKING WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC AT KHON CURRENTLY. IN FACT KHON IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT IT LOOKED LIKE ON THE VIS/FOG CURVE ON THE IR SATELLITE THAT THERE WAS SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST WEST OF KHON BEFORE THE HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THEM UP. HARD TO TELL HOW HIGH THOSE CLOUDS WERE...SO KEPT A SCATTERED DECK AT FIVE HUNDRED FEET AGL FOR THEM IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OUR ZONES WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 TONIGHT BRINGING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR KHON. THE GFS STRONGLY HINTS AT AN IFR DECK EVENTUALLY LATE TONIGHT FOR KHON WHICH STANDS TO REASON AS THERE ARE A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN SD RIGHT NOW. KEPT KFSD AND KSUX AT MVFR TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. IT IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSRA TONIGHT FOR KFSD AND KSUX...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY TO BE PINPOINTING THAT DOWN. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM... AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE... AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH 850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HGIHS IN THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST. SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END. AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DECIDED FOR THE 06Z TAF SET TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE RAP IN THE SHORT TERM...AND AVIATION MODEL IN THE LONGER TERM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM PAINTS A TON OF STRATUS AROUND THE AREA...THEN LINGERS IT ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS...IT CURRENTLY HAS STRATUS RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS NONE AROUND. SO THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY. THERE IS IFR AND MVFR STRATUS IN OKLAHOMA...NOW STREAMING A BIT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS. THEREFORE IF THE STRATUS ADVECTS IN INSTEAD OF DEVELOPS...THEN THE RAP SEEMS REASONABLE IN PRODUCING AN IFR STRATUS DECK AT KFSD AND KSUX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERS IT INTO LATE MORNING. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NAM HAS A LOT OF LIGHT QPF FOR KFSD AND KSUX WHICH LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE. BUT AGAIN THAT WILL ONLY PAN OUT IF THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF STRATUS PRESENT WHICH IS THE QUESTION MARK. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM... AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 344 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SURGING WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL APPROACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS TONIGHT...IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF A FALL FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY. TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS REGARDING EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS CPD PLOTS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 WILL HAVE RAPID STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MIXING WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES DESPITE MIXY WINDS. FURTHER WEST...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. CLOUDS AND WINDS MAY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD HIGH MINS. WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY...STRONG WINDS SHOULD MIX THROUGH A RELATIVELY THIN STRATUS LAYER. WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD ANTICIPATE 70S ONCE AGAIN. THE QUESTIONABLE AREAS WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA COUNTIES WHERE STRATUS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO THIN. THE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD SHOULD HELP SCATTER THINGS OUT EVEN IN THE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS AGAIN TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...BUT DISSIMILARITIES BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE BECOME LESS AND LESS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL EXTEND RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH MATCHING THE SWODY2 OUTLOOK. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RATHER STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD. GIVEN TIME OF THE DAY...FEEL THE RISK FOR SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN IS LOW...BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. WILL ALSO ADVERTISE A NON-STANDARD DIURNAL TREND FOR THURSDAY GIVEN POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 18Z WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 ON THURSDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS ON THROUGH WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING IN OUR EAST. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OFF OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S. THE COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS JUST EITHER SIDE OF 50. KEPT ANY CHANCES OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...WITH ONLY THE GFS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RUNNING MAINLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DECIDED FOR THE 06Z TAF SET TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE RAP IN THE SHORT TERM...AND AVIATION MODEL IN THE LONGER TERM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM PAINTS A TON OF STRATUS AROUND THE AREA...THEN LINGERS IT ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS...IT CURRENTLY HAS STRATUS RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS NONE AROUND. SO THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY. THERE IS IFR AND MVFR STRATUS IN OKLAHOMA...NOW STREAMING A BIT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS. THEREFORE IF THE STRATUS ADVECTS IN INSTEAD OF DEVELOPS...THEN THE RAP SEEMS REASONABLE IN PRODUCING AN IFR STRATUS DECK AT KFSD AND KSUX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERS IT INTO LATE MORNING. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NAM HAS A LOT OF LIGHT QPF FOR KFSD AND KSUX WHICH LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE. BUT AGAIN THAT WILL ONLY PAN OUT IF THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF STRATUS PRESENT WHICH IS THE QUESTION MARK. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DUX LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO LONGWAVE FEATURES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHING EASTWARD OFF THE GA/SC COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS KEPT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. DUE TO THIS...EXPECT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT IT APPEARS THE LIFT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS...CAUSING OVERCAST SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE DRY AIR WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN IN THE EVENING...A SQUALL LINE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER. WINDS ARE STRONG THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SO WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STORMS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY COULD BE STRONG...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER DECREASING OVERNIGHT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER NIGHT...SO DEPENDING ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...COOLER AIR SHOULD ADVECT IN FOR TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP BEGINNING SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND GRADUAL WARMING WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 73 65 75 / 20 30 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 72 63 75 / 10 20 10 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 71 62 75 / 10 20 10 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 74 57 74 / 10 10 10 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MA/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
853 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SE TX. NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE UPPER 60S BY MORNING. SFC DEW PTSIN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 800 PM.NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT THE CURRENT TIME AND LOWERED POPS EARLIER IN THE EVENING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.AT 800 PM...A DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL LOSE IT`S PUNCH AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT ABUT THE RAP/HRRR CONTINUE TO INSIOST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF SE TX. 850 MB MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND AND 850 JET EXTENDS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE. 300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS LIES IN A RRQ. CAN`T SAY I AM TOO IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE NAM AND RAP INITIALIZED THIS EVENING BUT THE CONSENSUS FROM ALMOST EVERY MODEL IS THAT THE DRY LINE WILL EDGE EAST AND SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL LET THE PREVIOUS FCST RIDE WITH 80 POPS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING HIGH ON FRIDAY EITHER BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ DISCUSSION... SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 AVIATION... MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE AVIATION FORECASTS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SURFACE SHOWED A DRY LINE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH APPROACHING THE OK PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH A COLD POOL MAY PUSH A WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS LATER TONIGHT...FELT THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE WIND SHIFT ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO THE METRO HOUSTON AIRPORTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THAT REGARD...LIKED THE NAM12 HANDLING OF THE WIND SHIFT BETTER WHICH KEPT IT NORTH OF KCXO THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...FELT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER KCLL AND AND KUTS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR KSGR AND KLBX...AND POSSIBLY OVER KIAH...MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z FURTHER INLAND AND THROUGH 21Z AT KLBX. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ DISCUSSION... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED AND EXPECT ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO LINGER THROUGH SUNSET... BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/ SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANTICIPATE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT AS IT INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WPC DOES HAVE THIS AREA OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY WATCH HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHORT DURATION AND LOCAL FLASH FLOOD DECISION TREE GUIDANCE ONLY HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL THREAT. BECAUSE THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT... THERE IS SOME ADDED UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE... THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACH THE BRAZOS VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSHES TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG... BOTH INLAND TONIGHT AND SEA FOG NOW THROUGH SATURDAY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEA FOG LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. AS MORE MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GULF WATERS... SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT OF COVERAGE GIVEN DISPARITIES IN UPPER FORCING AND SOLUTIONS WITH SHORTER TERM GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST... PUSHING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HUFFMAN MARINE... A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING THE DAY...AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT & DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...PROBABLY INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE BY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER BACK TO THE SE ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL - PARTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HWY 87/124 AREA ON BOLIVAR LATE SAT INTO SUN. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 73 61 66 50 / 80 50 60 60 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 66 70 54 / 50 50 70 70 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 70 72 59 / 20 40 60 70 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
810 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM RISK UNTIL AROUND 9PM WHEN THE DRYLINE AND PSEUDO COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE DECREASED RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH 8-9PM SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. NEW ZONES AND FORECAST HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED. AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ADVERTISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICS MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR COMPOSITE WITH WEAKENING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO LET THESE VALUES RIDE FOR NOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .DISCUSSION... CURRENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SET-UP REVEALS AN OPEN AND WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH ONLY 40-60 KT H5 FLOW OVERTOP SOUTHERLY 25 KT 925MB FLOW THAT HAS USHERED IN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AMOUNTS NEAR 2.1". OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS LITTLE TO NO H5 HEIGHT FALLS HAVE OCCURRED AND MUCH OF THE FORCING AND DYNAMIC LIFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...BOTH GLOBAL AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR MIDNIGHT PER NWP MASS FIELDS. THE RAP13 REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR SAN ANTONIO INTO FRIO/MEDINA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL DURING THIS EVENT THUS FAR AND IS ALSO ON THE LOWER END OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH 1-3 INCHES. THE HRRR REMAINS A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGH OUTLIER AND HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL AT ALL OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE MIDNIGHT TO 6AM TIME-FRAME FOR ANY UP-TICK IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE OVERALL MESOSCALE SET-UP IS NOT IN FAVOR OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN WEAK TO LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO...THERE IS LITTLE DISCERNIBLE EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WOULD HELP ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. DESPITE THESE FACTORS AND GIVEN THE NEAR RECORD PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE PLUS A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IF STORMS HAVE NOT FIRED BY MIDNIGHT TO 3AM...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ AVIATION... ALL TERMINALS ARE STARTING OUT VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CIGS. THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WHICH IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THIS IS WHEN CIGS SHOULD LOWER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL AROUND 12Z. AFTER THAT TIME THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES HAS LED TO A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL TAKE PLACE WEST OF I-35/NORTH OF I-10. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS IN STORE BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS TO REMOVE EDWARDS COUNTY AS IT APPEARS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF EDWARDS COUNTY. WE/LL STILL MENTION RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW...IT WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL MENTION A 30-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... ON SATURDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 50-60% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FINALLY BRINGS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 70 56 65 50 / 90 50 50 60 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 70 56 65 49 / 80 50 50 60 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 72 58 67 51 / 80 50 50 60 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 54 64 48 / 90 30 50 50 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 73 60 67 52 / 40 20 50 50 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 70 54 65 47 / 90 40 50 60 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 71 58 67 49 / 70 40 50 60 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 57 65 50 / 80 50 50 60 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 74 60 67 51 / 80 50 50 50 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 71 60 67 52 / 70 50 50 60 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 73 61 68 53 / 70 50 50 60 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL... COMAL...DIMMIT...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL... KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS... UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW. THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD APPRAOCH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 60 80 80 30 50 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 60 80 80 30 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 70 70 80 30 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 60 70 80 40 50 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL... KERR...KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS... UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 308 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIIZZLE TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COTNINEU TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS SUPISIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY... SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE LEAD TO A WIDE ARRAY OF AVIATION CONDITIONS...BUT CONTINUED MOIST FLOW ATOP A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MANY LOCATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 06-08Z...AFTER WHICH SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN THEIR SLOW EROSION. OUTLOOK... LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERS STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1039 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 648 AM EST WEDNESDAY... MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NC TOP A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RAP SHOWS SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALBEIT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 800MB...TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A COMPLETELY WET DAY THOUGH..AND SOME SUN MAY PEAK TROUGH AT TIMES WITH DRIER AIR JUST OFF TO THE NORTH. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA NORTHWARD THROUGH SE WV...ALLEGHANYS AND PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...TO UPPER 50S- LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF ROANOKE TO MOUNT AIRY/WILKESBORO NC. -22 TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH. WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE WV/VA BORDER BEFORE THE FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT BACK EAST THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER POPS 40-50 EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS...TO CHANCE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY AS CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. -WP && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY KICK OUT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES AN EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES DIG A TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT BUT MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT GRADUALLY CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING. WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A SOLID FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH QUESTIONS IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS QUITE DRY/COOL WITH THE HIGH ABOUT OVERHEAD AND LITTLE RETURN FLOW INTO THE WEDGE UNTIL MONDAY...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING MORE COASTAL TROFFINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING PERHAPS SOME -RA BACK INTO THE COOL POOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE ONSET OF THE DRY ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT INITIALLY BEFORE ANY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRIER WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA RETURNING BY TUESDAY. COOLER 85H TEMPS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY- MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S UNDER BETTER RETURN FLOW TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY... GOING TO SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 1500-4500 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR DANVILLE EARLY BUT BEST THREAT OF THIS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MODELS FAVOR BKN TO SCT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT LWB/BLF AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP A CIG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR. DRIER ABOVE THE LOWEST LVLS MAY CREATE A FOG ISSUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE WEDGE FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP/22 SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS. A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S. LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM SPELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH. PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AT EARLY EVENING. IT WILL ALREADY HAVE PASSED KRST BY 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF KLSE BETWEEN 01-02Z. SOME THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OVER IA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOR KLSE. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING AT KLSE AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TRENDS IN MOST MESO MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DOESN/T CATCH UP TO THE FRONT UNTIL ITS PASSED KLSE. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS TREND. FOR CIGS...A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE MVFR CIGS AROUND THE COLD FRONT...BUT 2 KFT OR SO RETURNS WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH DECREASING SATURATION AND MIXING LEADING TO A SCATTERING OF THE DECK BETWEEN 15- 19Z FRI. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD SW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE EAST COAST HIGH WILL KEEP THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT MORE STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WHILE SOME OF THE STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST HAS DIURNALLY DISSIPATED EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. IN FACT KEEPING A CLOSE EYE VIA VSBL IMAGERY ON NW EXPANSION OF LARGE STRATUS/FOG AREA OVER LAKE MI. ALSO SEEING MORE NARROW BAND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHICH HAS NUDGED ONSHORE. OVER MUCH OF SRN WI THE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION EVOLVING BUT NOT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THERE ARE SOME DECENT WINDS OFF THE DECK AND THIS SHOULD NEGATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG ON ADJACENT LAND AREAS THERE HOWEVER TRAJ SUGGESTS ANY OF THIS FOG WOULD NOT MAKE A SIGGY INLAND PUSH. OVERALL MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT HANGING TO OUR WEST. 925 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPS DEEP INTO THE 60S. WILL HAVE TO AGAIN CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT GETTING CLOSER...BUT ANY SHRA CHANCES CONFINED TO WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA CONCEIVABLY COULD REACH 70 AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN SEE. OVERALL UPTICK IN 700 MILLIBAR RH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE SOMEWHAT WARMER GFS MOS BUT IF WINDOW BETWEEN ANY MORNING STRATUS AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS NARROWS THEN THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CAUSE COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...THIS IS WELL OVER 95TH PERCENTILE. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TRAILING OFF AFTER 06Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM NEAR THE SFC UP TO 600H SWEEPS THRU SRN WI AS LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-6.5 DEGREES WHILE ELEVATED CAPE INCREASES TO OVER 500 J/KG JUST PRIOR TO STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. HENCE WL BEEF UP THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE AND ISOLD OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DYNAMIC TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE T THREAT TO SCT. MUCH COLDER AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. 925H TEMPS TUMBLE 10C AND EXPECT FRI MAX T TO BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER. WITH SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC...DRIER SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS FOR AT LEAST PART OF FRI. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS WRN GTLAKES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF SLIDES TO THE EAST. .EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TRENDING TO MEDIUM. QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS BROADSCALE UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER UPPER MIDWEST TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GTLAKES ON MON. AT THIS TIME...COLUMN MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE PINCHED OFF DUE TO LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST AND SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME ADDED LIFT FROM INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE TIME. COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY LOW POPS FOR NOW. WARMER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AS UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF OVER WRN CONUS TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT GETS NUDGED NORTHEAST BY EASTERN PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CONUS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF WL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIKELY BRING BETTER THREAT FOR SHRA TO SRN WI TUE NIGHT INTO WED NGT. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEASONAL NORMAL BY THE 12TH. GFS 5-DAY 500H PATTERN INDICATING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS SPREADING INTO UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z/12 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL HAS SHOWN SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION BUT WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR MORE IFR STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH SOME IFR VSBYS AS WELL. WINDS OFF THE DECK SUGGEST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT SOME PATCHY LWR VSBYS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING BACK INTO SRN WI. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DAYS AS BEING THE BEST WINDOW FOR RAINFALL. && .MARINE...COOLER LAKE TEMPS INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN FOG OVER A PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WATCHING TRENDS ON VSBL IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS/FOG AREA TRENDING NW AND EXPANDING FROM MID LAKE WITH A MORE NARROW BAND NEAR THE SHORE. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO HAVE HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU AND BEHIND THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHER CONFIDENT SCA SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BETTER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY LMZ643-644 UNTIL 18Z/THU. $$ TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...PC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 INCOMING STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. WATER VAPOR REVEALING A DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A MAJOR UPSTREAM RIDGE WAS DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GENERAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL AID IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT/CROSS SECTION RH FIELDS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER A RATHER STRONG INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 850MB. WITH THIS PILING UP OF MOISTURE/INCREASING STRATUS/LIFT UNDER THE INVERSION...THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI. TEMPERATURE-WISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. NAM SHOWING 500-1000J/KG OF MUCAPE WHILE GFS20 ONLY SHOWING 250-500J/KG. BELIEVE REALIZED CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE AMPLE AVAILABLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT...BELIEVE MINIMAL CAPE WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF ANYTHING SEVERE. BUT...WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON IT ANYWAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE MAINLY A SEVERE WIND THREAT IF SOMETHING COULD GET GOING. TEMPERATURE- WISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY THURSDAY WITH PRE- FRONTAL HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S. LOOK FOR THE FRONT AND SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH COLDER/BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 FRIDAY WILL BE A BRISK/COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THEN LOWER 50S....WHICH REALLY...IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL ADD A NOVEMBER FEEL TO THE AIR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK QUIET AS UPPER/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION. AFTER A RATHER COOL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...PLAN ON SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. BY MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE DRIZZLE FORMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD A 1000MB LOW NEAR THE NEB/WY/CO BORDER WITH A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MN. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH WAS OVER MN/IA/MUCH OF WI. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA EARLY THIS MORNING 10-15MPH G15-20MPH. WINDS ACROSS WI MORE IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 07Z...MANY TEMPS REMAINED ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS DATE...THIS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY/SFC OBS DID SHOW AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS/BR/FG LIFTING NORTH THRU IL/FAR EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. 04.00Z MODELS FOR THE MOST PART INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. GFS WAS ODDLY LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAD PERSISTED ALL DAY. SOLUTIONS SIMILAR FOR TODAY AS PIECES OF ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH/MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY 00Z. THIS WHILE HGTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR AS ENERGY STARTS TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND HGTS START TO FALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND BY 12Z THU. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND RESULTING HIGH TEMPS. WHERE LOWER LEVEL MODEL RH PROGS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM EASTERN NEB/ NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHWEST MN...SKIES ARE CLEAR. WHERE THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF IL/NEARBY AREAS...MODELS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON THE LOWER MOISTURE/RH SIGNAL. THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS UNDER WSR-88D VAD PROFILES SHOWING 925MB WINDS SOUTHWEST 30- 40KTS AT KDMX/KDVN/KARX. USED SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS THRU 09Z FOR CLOUD COVER/FCST GRIDS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH LIKE TUE...STRONGER SFC-850MB GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD MIX/ERODE ANY SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER 15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS LOOKING TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORING A FCST WITH SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. IF SKIES WERE TO END UP SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY...MUCH LIKE TUE HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH 30-35KTS IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER. A BREEZY/WINDY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH WINDS 15- 25MPH G25-35MPH. STRONGER OF THESE IN THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONGER SIGNAL AMONG MODELS FOR THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC- 850MB...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS UNDER SOME BROAD 850- 700MB ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z THU. AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS LATER TONIGHT MAY YET NEED A MENTION OF PATCHY DZ. WITH A LIMITED SIGNAL FOR THIS AMONG THE MODELS LEFT TONIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. LEFT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE TIGHTER SIDE AS WELL TONIGHT...WITH SFC WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN IN THE 8-15KT RANGE THRU THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING...A MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS AT OR ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR NOV 5TH. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS THU/THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD. 04.00Z MODELS MAINTAIN A RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS AS THE ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF EARLIER MODELS WITH THE TROUGH AT 00Z FRI...WITH A BIT MORE POSITIVE TILT/SHEARING OF THE LEAD ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH. FROM THIS POINT...GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS ENERGY/TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. CONSENSUS NOW INCLUDES SOME WEAK/TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRI...AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM/COLD CORE TROUGHING TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THE RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THU THRU FRI NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE. SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THRU 00Z FRI DELAYS ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER FORCING/LIFT WITH IT MORE INTO THE THU AFTERNOON HOURS. PW VALUES STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-700MB TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORCING/ LIFT SIGNAL WITH THE MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS/SHEARED VORTICITY TRENDS WEAKER AS IT APPROACHES/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG STILL EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE SFC-850MB FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWERED SHRA CHANCES THU MORNING...WITH INCREASING SHRA CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON...THEN 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES THU EVENING. CONTINUED THE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER OVERALL FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP AS A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AMOUNT THU/THU NIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...MORE IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE. SHARPER SFC-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE SPELLS A QUICKER END TO THE PRECIP LATER THU NIGHT AND TRENDED RAIN CHANCES AFTER 09Z TO 20-40 PERCENT MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/ COOLER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRI UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS BY FRI AFTERNOON...925MB TEMPS ONLY LOOKING TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV. AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS...FRIDAY WILL FEEL COLD. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS LOOKING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. MAY YET NEED A SMALL SHRA/SHSN CHANCE FRI NIGHT WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE 850-700MB COLD POOL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT INDICATED AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT DRY. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FRI NIGHT TROUGH TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SAT MORNING...THEN RISING HGTS/RIDING ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT THRU SUN. IMPROVING SIGNAL/CONSISTENCY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PATTERN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT COMES THRU THE ROCKIES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4- 7 PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. COOLEST OF THE 925MB AIRMASS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SAT. SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS DECOUPLED THRU MUCH OF SAT NIGHT. SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUE TO TREND AS THE COOLER PERIODS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE. TEMPS TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN THRU TUE...MORE AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL VS. 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IMPROVING SIGNAL FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PROGS REMAIN SCANT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SMALL CONSENSUS SHRA CHANCES MON INTO TUE OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE AND ANY LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT-TUE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF A DRY/SUNNY TREND IS MORE CORRECT FOR TUE THE CONSENSUS HIGHS ON DAY 7 MAY BE SOME 5F TOO COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE DRIZZLE FORMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...STRATUS EROSION RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS SHOWING THE MIX OUT OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL SO EXPECT THIS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING BACK INTO SRN WI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF WIND OFF THE DECK SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOLDING OFF ON SHRA UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. PC && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGE FROM 08Z THIS MORNING SHOWED NEARSHORE LAKE SFC WATERS HAVE COOLED MOSTLY INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH OF OZAUKEE/MILWAUKEE COUNTY LINE...AND INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE NORTH. THESE COOL LAKE TEMPS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH WARM SFC DEWPTS TO CAUSE MORE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU AND BEHIND THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST JET MAX IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SECOND JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 925/850 MB WINDS ARE WEAK TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE 0706Z VIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SHOWS THE STRATUS DISTRIBUTION VERY WELL. DUE TO THE SHALLOW THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS...THE CITY LIGHTS ARE SHINING THROUGH. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS SLOW...BUT IS EXPANDING. THE GOES CLOUD THICKNESS ALSO SHOWS THE STRATUS VS FOG DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT VERY WELL. WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE DENSE...IT APPEARS VISIBILITIES IN MOST AREAS RISE A LITTLE AS THE STRATUS FORMS. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS MOMENT. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS WILL SLOW WARMING. WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH...SO ANY LAKE COOLING WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH INLAND. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS IS NOW SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR TO THE NAM. ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO KEPT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THUS...LOWERED GUSTS A BIT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE RISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW LEVELS IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS IS STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH IN A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS WE CAN GET A FAST MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THAT BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HERE...AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING COLDER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY LOWER END POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND QPF. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY TONIGHT. MARINE... LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER VIRS DAY/NIGHT SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE ATTM. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST JET MAX IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SECOND JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 925/850 MB WINDS ARE WEAK TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE 0706Z VIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SHOWS THE STRATUS DISTRIBUTION VERY WELL. DUE TO THE SHALLOW THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS...THE CITY LIGHTS ARE SHINING THROUGH. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS SLOW...BUT IS EXPANDING. THE GOES CLOUD THICKNESS ALSO SHOWS THE STRATUS VS FOG DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT VERY WELL. WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE DENSE...IT APPEARS VISIBILITIES IN MOST AREAS RISE A LITTLE AS THE STRATUS FORMS. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS MOMENT. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS WILL SLOW WARMING. WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH...SO ANY LAKE COOLING WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH INLAND. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY TONIGHT. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS IS NOW SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR TO THE NAM. ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO KEPT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THUS...LOWERED GUSTS A BIT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE RISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW LEVELS IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS IS STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH IN A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS WE CAN GET A FAST MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THAT BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HERE...AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING COLDER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY LOWER END POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND QPF. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER VIRS DAY/NIGHT SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE ATTM. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PER THE 21Z SREF LOW CIGS PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND THE IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KMSN AROUND 07Z...AND KUES AROUND 08Z. MORE UNCERTAINTY AT KENW AND KMKE SO ONLY HAVE SCT IFR CIGS THERE. MOST OF SRN WI WILL SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PUT IN AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WILL TAKE UNTIL MID-MORNING FOR THE CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS MVFR FOG CHANCES BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER 04Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ UPDATE... FOCUS REMAINS ON FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS OVER IL...ASSOCIATED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO SRN WISCONSIN PER RAP AND SPC FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS BRINGING RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO PLAY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NARROWING ..WITH MONROE AND JANESVILLE BELOW 6 MILES AT 02Z AND OTHER SITES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY 2 DEGREES. THE 21Z SREF FORECASTS ARE NOW SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITIES...70 TO 80 PCT..OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A FOND DU LAC...SLINGER...HARTLAND TO ELKHORN LINE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. 01Z HRRR EVEN LOWER WITH VSBYS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN EASTERN SITES NEAR THE LAKE...KEEPING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH FOR EVEN THE MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE FROM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP BY 03Z...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...WITH THE WESTERN CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOWEST VSBYS. WILL SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS...BUT RIGHT NOW DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT WILL BE IN PLAY FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...UPDATED LATEST SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS EARLIER RUN. HIGHER DEW POINT AIR STRUGGLES TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. SREF CLOUD PROBABILITY OF CIG LESS THAN 3K FT ALSO KEEPING BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BRING MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG AROUND/JUST AFTER 09Z...BUT KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS WITH SCT IFR. WILL MONITOR BAND OF IFR STRATUS IN CENTRAL IL THAT APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING TO THE NW BUT IS NOT EXPANDING AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/ TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN POINT OF FOCUS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL TRANSLATE NORTH INTO S WI. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE PROGGING DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY 12Z WED. BROKEN SKY COVER IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SCATTERED SKIES DURING THE DAY WED...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 925MB TEMPS ARE STILL VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 14 AND 17C. SO DROPPED HIGHS FOR WED. INTO THE MID 60S DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS S WI AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO WEST...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST MN. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT ONE THAT IS LIKELY TO BE MOIST ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN EVER EXPANDING AND UNPREDICTABLE LOWER STRATUS DECK. TIMING OF THE FIRST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON AFTER MID DAY ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE DETAILS HAVEN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF SPINNING OUT OF SRN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IT/S EAST THEN NORTHEAST PROGRESS THIS WEEK...KICKING OUT A VERY INTENSE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY. THAT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING PRECIP FIELD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PW/S WILL BE ABOUT 1-1.3 INCHES AND THE DEEP LAYER FORCING/UVV REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY CENTERED AROUND 04-08Z FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT...SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP AND THE RAIN MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR THE EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING AND VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE 50S...ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER DECENT FALL WEEKEND AROUND HERE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO COME IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT IN THIS OPEN WAVE. THE GFS IS FASTER...BRINGING CHANCES IN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS THOSE CHANCES UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THEY BOTH SPIN UP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ISN/T MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING/SHAPE/INTENSITY/TRACK...SO STAY TUNED. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TONIGHT UNTIL A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS COULD REACH INTO THE IFR CRITERIA AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS. SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL MOVE NORTH INTO S WI. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR AND UPPER IFR CATEGORIES FOR SOME TAF SITES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...REM TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED. SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE FG/ST THAT DEVELOPS TNGT. THUS FAR...FG HAS BEEN CONFINED TO LAKESHORE AREAS. SOME FOG MAY FORM FARTHER INLAND LATER TNGT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. MEANWHILE...RAPIDLY EXPANDING AREA OF FG/ST WAS RACING NWD ACRS IL...AND JUST ABOUT TO ENTER SRN WI. EXTRAP WOULD BRING THAT INTO THE C/E-C TAF SITES BTWN 08Z AND 11Z. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO GET RID OF THAT TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1008 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 954 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH EVEN WESTERN NEBRASKA SEEING SOME SNOWFALL AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. NOTED THAT THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE LLVL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NE COLORADO ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TREND HIGHER DUE TO POTENTIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOWLEVELS TO LOWER BETWEEN 7000 TO 7500 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TOWARDS 5500 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. SNOWLEVELS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 3500-4000 FEET ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH ONE OR TWO INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY ON THE GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE NEEDED IS TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY SINCE THE LLVL WIND DIRECTION IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AROUND THE LARAMIE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... THE STAGE IS SET FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO CENTRAL WY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD PER THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST TODAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 130-140 KNOT H25 JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 03Z THU. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL YIELD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BANDING. WE MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR GIVEN NEGATIVE EPVS AND WEAK LLVL CAPE APPARENT ON BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL DYNAMIC/MESOSCALE SETUP LENDS CREDENCE TO STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH FROM THE SUMMIT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HERE...SO NOW THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGH MTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WY. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY- SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AFTER 18Z BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THINK THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY 00Z ABOVE 7K FEET...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF OUR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE HERE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO WITH RAIN/MELTING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL QUITE TREACHEROUS. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE I- 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WE ALSO ADDED THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY MAY SEE AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER AS WELL. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WERE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AS THE 06Z NAM STILL SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IN CHEYENNE. DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS INTO FAR EASTERN WY AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH. DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY AS EVEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 DO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WELL BELOW FREEZING AT -5 TO -7C. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH MAINLY TEMPERATURES. STARTING OFF THURSDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THINKING IS THAT BY NOON TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. 700MB WINDS BEGIN PICKING UP THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. GFS 700MB WINDS OF 45-50KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. LATEST WRKHGT GUIDANCE SHOWING 850/700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS INCREASING TO 40/45MTRS RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID NOT INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE WEATHER FORECAST YET...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOKS AFTER WE SEE WHAT ACCUMULATIONS WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED/CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. PROBABLY OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -12C ACROSS OUT NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S EAST. DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO +4 TO +5C ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. GETTING CLOSE TO ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT FOR SUNDAY AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS GETTING CLOSE TO 60MTRS SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE DO HAVE WIND HEADLINES OUT FOR THAT TIME. BEGIN TO SEE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIP THOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 413 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 CONDITIONS ARE COMING DOWN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 11Z. HRRR PICKED THIS UP WELL AND SPREADS IT SOUTH TO KAIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINK KCDR AND KAIA WILL STAY DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS RAIN TURNS OVER TO SNOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 145 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112-114. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ106-116-117. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ107-110-115-118. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TJT SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
417 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... THE STAGE IS SET FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO CENTRAL WY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD PER THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST TODAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 130-140 KNOT H25 JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 03Z THU. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL YIELD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BANDING. WE MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR GIVEN NEGATIVE EPVS AND WEAK LLVL CAPE APPARENT ON BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL DYNAMIC/MESOSCALE SETUP LENDS CREDENCE TO STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH FROM THE SUMMIT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HERE...SO NOW THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGH MTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WY. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY- SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AFTER 18Z BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THINK THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY 00Z ABOVE 7K FEET...SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF OUR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE HERE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO WITH RAIN/MELTING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL QUITE TREACHEROUS. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE I- 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WE ALSO ADDED THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY MAY SEE AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER AS WELL. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WERE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AS THE 06Z NAM STILL SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IN CHEYENNE. DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS INTO FAR EASTERN WY AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH. DO NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY AS EVEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 DO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WELL BELOW FREEZING AT -5 TO -7C. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH MAINLY TEMPERATURES. STARTING OFF THURSDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THINKING IS THAT BY NOON TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. 700MB WINDS BEGIN PICKING UP THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. GFS 700MB WINDS OF 45-50KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. LATEST WRKHGT GUIDANCE SHOWING 850/700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS INCREASING TO 40/45MTRS RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID NOT INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE WEATHER FORECAST YET...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOKS AFTER WE SEE WHAT ACCUMULATIONS WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED/CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. PROBABLY OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -12C ACROSS OUT NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S EAST. DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO +4 TO +5C ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. GETTING CLOSE TO ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT FOR SUNDAY AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS GETTING CLOSE TO 60MTRS SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE DO HAVE WIND HEADLINES OUT FOR THAT TIME. BEGIN TO SEE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIP THOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 413 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 CONDITIONS ARE COMING DOWN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 11Z. HRRR PICKED THIS UP WELL AND SPREADS IT SOUTH TO KAIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINK KCDR AND KAIA WILL STAY DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS RAIN TURNS OVER TO SNOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 145 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112-114. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ106-116-117. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ107-110-115-118. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
413 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE. FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT DURING THE MORNING WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME RECORDS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 6TH... ALBANY NY: 72 DEGREES 1948 DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 GLENS FALL NY: 70 DEGREES 2005 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 73 DEGREES 1978 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
402 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE. FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION. EXCEPTING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE MORNING WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
311 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD. PREV DISC... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN 850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM. ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE... INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION. EXCEPTING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE MORNING WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT (0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD. PREV DISC... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN 850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM. ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE... INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH AND HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. EXCEPT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT (0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM EST...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS SEEN IN THE METARS WITH LOWERING CIGS. PER THE 00Z SOUNDING...SEEMS THIS STATUS WILL THICKEN BELOW THE INVERSION BELOW H700 AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME DRIZZLE EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING MIXING AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THIS INVERSION. DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER SO DID ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD. PREV DISC... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ALTHOUGH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS HEADING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH AN 850 HPA TEMP NEAR 13 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM. ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DATE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W-SW...AND SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...ESP SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST 01Z 3KM HRRR AGREES IN KEEPING ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...MINS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A SOUTH WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMP AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 72 DEGREES...AND THE CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORT IS 73 DEGREES...SO TEMPS WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE MAXIMUM POPS FORECAST ON FRIDAY RANGE FROM ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...UP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS...SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE... INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK OR MARGINAL AT BEST. A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT...BUT STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ONLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AT NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TO DRY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WITH LOW OR MID 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLE COOL AND DRY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OFF THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT GUIDANCE HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...WHICH IMPACT THE TRACK...STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO FORCING REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z-06Z...WITH KPOU/KPSF EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SITES TO SEE FOG/STRATUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM FOR LATE TONIGHT. FOG/STRATUS MAY START TO BREAK UP IN THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING FOR KPOU/KPSF. MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THE AFTN HOURS WITH BKN CIGS AT 4-9 KFT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO SCT NATURE OF THE PRECIP. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG. SAT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS RH VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT (0.25 INCH OR MORE) RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/BGM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THROUGH SUNRISE...FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER SMALL MIXED LAYER ABOUT 200 FT OFF THE GROUND HOLDING FIRM UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE MIXED LAYER MAY FINALLY GIVE WAY IN THE 5AM-8AM TIME FRAME...SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT COULD STILL UNFOLD LATER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME UNEXPECTED CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CHARLESTON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION IN THIS AREA IF THE STRATUS DOES NOT FILL BACK IN. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS AND/OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. TODAY...IT WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY WARM DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHICH WILL HELP PROPEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER- MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY NEAR THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND THROUGH ABOUT MID- MORNING DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM STRATUS AND FOG...BUT THERMAL RISES SHOULD ACCELERATE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FOG AND STRATUS LIFT AND THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE PACKAGES SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME MID- LEVEL POOLING OF HIGHER THETA AIR COULD OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO VERIFYING IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ATTM. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL SUPPORT A RATHER WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH LOWS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND AND A FEW LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES. THESE VALUES WILL CHALLENGE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM RECORDS AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES. MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INCREASING WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE RISK FOR FOG COULD BE LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH STRATUS LIKELY BECOMING THE DOMINATE MODE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG QUALIFIERS AS DELINEATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE TO OR EVEN REACH RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CLEAR EACH MORNING. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR RECORD HIGHS. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS WINDS COULD EXCEED 20 KT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS...LIKELY DROPPING TO AT LEAST ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND POSSIBLY AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SMALL MIXED LAYER IN PLACE FROM THE GROUND TO ABOUT 200 FT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS FROM EVOLVING INTO DENSE FOG. HAVE CAPPED VSBYS AT 2SM AT KCHS AND 1SM AT KSAV FOR NOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG. RESTRICTIONS RESULTING FROM SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... TODAY...WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. A LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KT. SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD ALONG THE BEACHES AND MOVES INLAND...BUT SHOULD ONLY SEE 5-10 KT AT BEST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 2-3 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BUILD BY ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 FT...RANGING FROM 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 2-3 FT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WITH A SOLID 3 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. LAND/SEA DIFFERENTIALS ARE SUCH THAT SEA FOG WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS TO PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...EXTENDING DOWN TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LEADING TO RISING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. EXPECT A STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZE WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BEYOND 10 NM OUT. GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 374. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH GOOD FETCH OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE BEYOND 40 NM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO THE LONG FETCH OFFSHORE. AT MINIMUM...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GALE HEADLINES POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIDES MAY RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING NEAR THE COAST. BEACH EROSION ALSO APPEARS LIKELY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 6... KCHS...87 SET IN 2003. KCXM...81 SET IN 2003. KSAV...85 SET IN 2003. RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 7... KCHS...84 SET IN 1986. KCXM...82 SET IN 1922. KSAV...86 SET IN 1986. RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7... KCHS...68 SET IN 2003. KCXM...70 SET IN 2003. KSAV...68 SET IN 2003. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST/MS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... H5 PATTERN SHOW LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS FALLEN HEIGHTS AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN CHANGES FOR THE SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST...SEE BELOW FOR THOSE DISCUSSIONS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA THAT HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE PERSISTENT WEDGE PATTERN THAT HAS ENVELOPED THE CWA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND FOG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE CLOUD DECK IS REDEVELOPING AND LOWERING ONCE AGAIN WITH NO IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WE CAN EXPECT AREAS OF FOG SOME LOCALLY DENSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT SHOWS NO POPS FROM THE GFS BUT NAM DOES KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF TRACE TO .01 BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO WILL FAVOR THE GFS AND KEEPS POPS OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AN LEVEL RIDGE WILL LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THEN APPROACHING THE UPSTATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF POPS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATE SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS REACHING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...LEANING TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...IS LOOKS LIKE AN IN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE INDICATED HIGHER POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IFR/LIFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH VSBYS AND CIGS CONTINUING TO LOWER. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVED DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR...HOWEVER EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WEDGE CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... A FEW AREA RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT CAROLINA EASTMAN WHERE MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES AND FOR LAKE WATEREE. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER AT COLUMBIA. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1213 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE COULD THEN SHIFT OVER OR NEAR THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER SMALL MIXED LAYER ABOUT 200 FT OFF THE GROUND HOLDING FIRM UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE MIXED LAYER MAY FINALLY GIVE WAY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT COULD UNFOLD LATER THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS AND/OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PRETTY POTENT COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COULD GET CLOSE TO OR EVEN REACH RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CLEAR EACH MORNING. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR RECORD HIGHS. LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS WINDS COULD EXCEED 20 KT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. SOME QUESTIONS COME ABOUT AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS INSIST THAT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...PERHAPS KEEPING IT JUST SOUTH AND OFFSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BY WEDNESDAY...DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN INTO THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS...LIKELY DROPPING TO AT LEAST ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND POSSIBLY AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SMALL MIXED LAYER IN PLACE FROM THE GROUND TO ABOUT 200 FT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS FROM EVOLVING INTO DENSE FOG. HAVE CAPPED VSBYS AT 2SM AT KCHS AND 1SM AT KSAV FOR NOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND THEN WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE/IMPACTS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT WARRANTED WITHIN THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT SC WATERS AND LESS THAN 15 KT GA WATERS...MAINLY FROM THE E/NE VEERING TOWARD THE E/SE LATE. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PREVAIL...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND AND DOMINATED BY A 7-8 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SEA FOG ALONG THE COOLER COAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO ABOUT 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM AND 10 FT BEYOND 40 NM. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP PUSH TIDE LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION NEAR THE COAST. BEACH EROSION ALSO APPEARS LIKELY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 6... KCHS...87 SET IN 2003 KCXM...81 SET IN 2003 KSAV...85 SET IN 2003 RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 7... KCHS...84 SET IN 1986 KCXM...82 SET IN 1922 KSAV...86 SET IN 1986 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1131 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front is making steady progress toward western IL, and should reach near the IL river valley by 07z. Lightning in precip along the cold front has been steadily diminishing as the evening has progressed. While thunder may be quite limited during FROPA, we could still see some updrafts tap into the 60-70kt of 0-6km wind shear, creating some minor tree damage at times. Will monitor any fast moving storm segments for short term wind damage concerns. The speed of the front should push precip into Indiana by sunrise on Friday. Made some minor adjustments to the PoP grids to match current timing trends, but little change occurred to the point and click/worded forecast. Updated info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots). Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off in the wake of the convective line. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur. However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known; which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid 50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Potential for convection near our terminal sites tonight is quite low. Lightning along the cold front has almost completely ended. Can`t rule out a few strikes just ahead of FROPA, but overall, main concern will be the wind. Gradient winds have been gusting to 35kt ahead of the front. Several downdrafts with collapsing storm towers could produce some brief strong gusts as well. Behind the front, west winds will gust to 25 kt for several hours, before winds subside after sunrise. PIA, BMI and CMI cloud heights are oscillating between IFR and MVFR around 1K ft. Clouds have lifted to VFR for SPI and DEC. Overall trend looks to be MVFR developing as the main line/front approaches, with IFR possible for short periods of time. MVFR clouds may hold on through mid morning, but sunny skies appear likely by mid-day. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 833 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING FOR ALL AREAS...AND TO WORK IN LATEST TEMP TRENDS FROM THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE TRENDED TO MORE LIGHTER...WHICH IS GOING TO AMPLIFY THE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS...HAVE LEFT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY 5-10F. FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE). .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR KGLD/KMCK...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN150-250 THRU 17Z FRIDAY THEN BKN070-110 WITH SOME VCSH. WINDS WNW AROUND 5-10KTS THRU 17Z THEN SHIFTING BETWEEN NE-NW FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... Issued at 1156 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Updated for 06z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 559 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Updated for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The HRRR is still trying to figure out the convective evolution tonight. Earlier it appeared a consensus was building for the current area of showers to dissipate as it moved through southern Illinois this evening, and then the main QLCS activity would move back into the area around midnight. The most recent runs are a bit more diverse, building more intense convection northeast through the boot heel 03-06Z and then through west Kentucky mostly by 09Z. This run is showing a more signifant LEWP structure than we have seen before. So this is actually an escalation from what we have been expecting. The bottom line is that the larger-scale models continue to develop plenty of low-level shear and most unstable CAPE to support severe weather in the form of damaging winds and tornadoes as the main line moves through the region late this evening and overnight. There still is the potential for the system to produce little or no lightning. Most of the overnight activity will be east southeast of the area by 12Z. There is a small chance of showers streaming east northeast along the Tennessee border through Friday night, as a larger-scale trough approaches the area. Will keep a small pop down there to handle this possibility. Generally trended toward the warm side guidance for highs and lows through Friday night, then toward the cool side Saturday through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Confidence is medium but a bit better than previous runs until mid to late next week then timing confidence is very low. The models now are in good agreement of a cut off low...caught up in a weak perturbation...will pass just our northwest. As it passes it pulls gulf moisture to its southeast over the pah fa and create enough lift to produce some showers at least over the southeast portion Monday. Where the models differ is the exact path of the low. Some would bring it through the fa while others keep farther to northwest. They also differ on the western extent of the rain. They do however agree the closed low will open up and accelerate out of the area. The models are in fair agreement of spotty waa type showers in the lows wake. These would be low confidence and would yield very little rain or coverage if they do occur...so most areas dry until the next system arrives. The models continue to be around 24 hours apart on the next system. Confidence in another system is fair but timing of system is low. Right now the GFS is the fastest with the system arriving around 6z Wed. The DGEX is in the middle with arrival Wed aftn. Finally the ECMWF brings it in Thursday around 12z. Some elevated instability was indicated with K index values around 35. Surface based instability is not indicated at this time. Will likely hold off introduction of thunder unless collaboration calls for it and then it would only be isolated at best. Will hold off and see what the extended init yields and use collaboration to try and present a reasonable solution at this juncture. Temperatures will start out below normal and slowly warm to near normal next week that is until the mid to late week system moves through then back below normal expected. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1156 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Large rain shield with embedded thunder has engulfed the area late this evening. Terminals will see MVFR/low VFR cigs along with IFR/MVFR vsbys. Cigs will lower more as the rain comes to an end. Low MVFR and possibly some IFR cigs will be around into the morning hrs. Strong clearing still on track to progress across the region during the mid to late morning hrs. Northwest winds around 10 kts will be seen tmrw as high pressure builds in. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...SP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40 MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW WITH TIMING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MVFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GO WEST AFTER 12Z AND GUST OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN. THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...04 MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB...MORNING STRATUS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER ONCE IT DOES...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL NC...NEARING 80 DEGREES IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEES SOME SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY... ...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY... MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST. STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY... AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY... EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 845 PM THURSDAY... SATELLITE AND METARS STILL INDICATING STRATUS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES)...WITH CIGS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. MEANWHILE... OBS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED SFC AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS ARE LOCATED (SUCH AS AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TRIANGLE). LATEST HRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND AREAS OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN UPDATE TO TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL BE TO ADD FOG INTO OUR WEATHER GRID. OTHERWISE...BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED FOG AND CLOUDS...TEMPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW (LOWS FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY... MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISPERSE MORE QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...SHEARING THE FRONT AND ALIGNING IT IN A BACKDOOR-ISH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCES ~10 METERS RISE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A 2-3 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS...SUPPORTING A MAX TEMP FORECAST OF 75 WEST TO 80 EAST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AWAITING A PUSH FROM A SECOND STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EVEN MILDER...IN THE MID 60S. SATURDAY...COMING SOON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY... AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY... EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 845 PM THURSDAY... SATELLITE AND METARS STILL INDICATING STRATUS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC (PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES)...WITH CIGS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. MEANWHILE... OBS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED SFC AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREAKS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS ARE LOCATED (SUCH AS AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TRIANGLE). LATEST HRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND AREAS OF FOG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. AS SUCH...THE MAIN UPDATE TO TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL BE TO ADD FOG INTO OUR WEATHER GRID. OTHERWISE...BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS AND EXPECTED FOG AND CLOUDS...TEMPS THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW (LOWS FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY... MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISPERSE MORE QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH...SHEARING THE FRONT AND ALIGNING IT IN A BACKDOOR-ISH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCES ~10 METERS RISE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A 2-3 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS...SUPPORTING A MAX TEMP FORECAST OF 75 WEST TO 80 EAST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AWAITING A PUSH FROM A SECOND STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EVEN MILDER...IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BISECTING THE COUNTRY... WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH INTO SC/GA SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD BECOME REINVIGORATED BY THE APPROACH OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 180KT JET OVER THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE FROPA GIVEN PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE NAM IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WHICH SHOW THE FRONT SURGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH WITH TIME ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS. WILL ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND ANY THREAT OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KTS...WOULD BE GREATEST. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SATURDAY AS DECENT WARMING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO START TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF YIELDS 66-80...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE POSSIBLE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT DEPICTED IN THE NAM. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO MORE STRATIFORM AND COMES TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS DROPS OFF PRETTY DRAMATICALLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ENERGY ON THE TAIL END OF THIS WEEKENDS SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK OFF AND THEN MAKE A SLOW JAUNT NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS IT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A MORE OPEN WAVE. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER WAVE IS SO FAR TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE VERY STRONG...SO WOULD LEAN MORE TO THE GFS...WITH LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...CAD SHOULD DEVELOP AND TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE FINALLY BREAK BACK OUT LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY... EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND A MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS IN THE EAST. IN FACT...VISBYS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING THE DENSE FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST MORNING STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). WILL DELAY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 17-21Z...EARLIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. BETTER THAN 150 METER HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER NORTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND BETTER THAN 250 METER HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST FOR FRI OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLOUDY AND TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING. AREA SHOULD REMAINS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE SOUTH. WILL INCREASE TEMPS NORTH AND DECREASE SOME SOUTH. TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH RADAR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS DEEPENED ABOUT 10 MB IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB OUT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. RAP MODEL SOUNDING INDICATED LOWER LAYER TO BECOME MORE ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AROUND 900 HPA. WINDS AROUND 900 HPA DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OF PRECIP IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE E/NE...AS EXPECTED. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE WHAT OCCURS CLOSER TO SUNSET (IF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS)...ALTHOUGH PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE WAY DOWN BY THEN WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PASS JUST TO THE NW OF BAUDETTE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES NOT SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA (NEAR THE SD BORDER)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. STRONGEST FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NE OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE BAUDETTE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S SAT MORNING (IF WE CAN CLEAR). MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS..ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. A SW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY TUESDAY...AND A SFC LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE WY ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...BRINING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT NIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR THOSE DETAILS AT THIS POINT. GROUND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITHOUT A DECENT BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP...ANY SNOW MID NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHORT LIVED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DOES SHOW A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER SOME CIGS WERE 5 HUNDRED FT OR LESS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF THE RED RIVER WITH CIGS FROM 14 TO 21 HUNDRED FT. VFR CIGS WERE OVER SOUTHWEST ND BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO MOVING ANY FARTHER EAST ON LATEST SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS. WILL KEEP MOSTLY IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HOPPES SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 && .AVIATION... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TEXAS AT 05Z. A DRY LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP13 MODELS PUSHES A WIND SHIFT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY LINE LATE THIS EVENING...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THE MODELS THEN KEEP THE WIND SHIFT NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE KCXO SITE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH 12Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS THROUGH 15Z. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ DISCUSSION... A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SE TX. NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE UPPER 60S BY MORNING. SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT 800 PM.NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT THE CURRENT TIME AND LOWERED POPS EARLIER IN THE EVENING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.AT 800 PM...A DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL LOSE IT`S PUNCH AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT ABUT THE RAP/HRRR CONTINUE TO INSIOST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF SE TX. 850 MB MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND AND 850 JET EXTENDS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE. 300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS LIES IN A RRQ. CAN`T SAY I AM TOO IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE NAM AND RAP INITIALIZED THIS EVENING BUT THE CONSENSUS FROM ALMOST EVERY MODEL IS THAT THE DRY LINE WILL EDGE EAST AND SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST BETWEEN 06-09Z. WILL LET THE PREVIOUS FCST RIDE WITH 80 POPS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING HIGH ON FRIDAY EITHER BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 73 61 66 50 / 80 50 60 60 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 66 70 54 / 50 50 70 70 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 70 72 59 / 20 40 60 70 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1054 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL BRING NORTH WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. AT DRT VIS HAS DROPPED TO MVFR AND IT WILL REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES IN BY AROUND 09Z. CIGS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT AUS AND SAT SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ UPDATE... HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM RISK UNTIL AROUND 9PM WHEN THE DRYLINE AND PSEUDO COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE DECREASED RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH 8-9PM SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. NEW ZONES AND FORECAST HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED. AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ADVERTISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICS MAY BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR COMPOSITE WITH WEAKENING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO LET THESE VALUES RIDE FOR NOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DISCUSSION... CURRENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SET-UP REVEALS AN OPEN AND WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH ONLY 40-60 KT H5 FLOW OVERTOP SOUTHERLY 25 KT 925MB FLOW THAT HAS USHERED IN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AMOUNTS NEAR 2.1". OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS LITTLE TO NO H5 HEIGHT FALLS HAVE OCCURRED AND MUCH OF THE FORCING AND DYNAMIC LIFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...BOTH GLOBAL AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR MIDNIGHT PER NWP MASS FIELDS. THE RAP13 REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR SAN ANTONIO INTO FRIO/MEDINA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL DURING THIS EVENT THUS FAR AND IS ALSO ON THE LOWER END OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH 1-3 INCHES. THE HRRR REMAINS A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGH OUTLIER AND HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL AT ALL OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE MIDNIGHT TO 6AM TIME-FRAME FOR ANY UP-TICK IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE OVERALL MESOSCALE SET-UP IS NOT IN FAVOR OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN WEAK TO LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO...THERE IS LITTLE DISCERNIBLE EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WOULD HELP ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. DESPITE THESE FACTORS AND GIVEN THE NEAR RECORD PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE PLUS A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IF STORMS HAVE NOT FIRED BY MIDNIGHT TO 3AM...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES HAS LED TO A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL TAKE PLACE WEST OF I-35/NORTH OF I-10. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS IN STORE BY LATE EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTHWARD. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS TO REMOVE EDWARDS COUNTY AS IT APPEARS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF EDWARDS COUNTY. WE/LL STILL MENTION RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW...IT WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL MENTION A 30-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... ON SATURDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 50-60% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR FINALLY BRINGS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 70 56 65 50 / 90 50 50 60 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 70 56 65 49 / 80 50 50 60 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 72 58 67 51 / 80 50 50 60 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 54 64 48 / 90 30 50 50 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 73 60 67 52 / 40 20 50 50 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 70 54 65 47 / 90 40 50 60 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 71 58 67 49 / 70 40 50 60 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 57 65 50 / 80 50 50 60 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 74 60 67 51 / 80 50 50 50 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 71 60 67 52 / 70 50 50 60 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 73 61 68 53 / 70 50 50 60 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL... DIMMIT...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR... KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE... WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING BACK UP AND THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH THE INCOMING WARM FRONT. GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL BE BASICALLY DRY TONIGHT. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS BUT DID NOT DRY THINGS OUT ENTIRELY ALL AREAS IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING COAST AND SOUTH PART AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN RAIN THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST BUT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER INLAND. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ONTO THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE INTERIOR SATURDAY FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN ALL AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SUB-ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ABOVE PASS LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON SUNDAY FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. SCHNEIDER .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER. THE NEXT PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND WETTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW WHICH LEANS TOWARD CLIMO. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE DISPARITIES IN THE MODELS THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCLEAR. 33 && .AVIATION...THE AIR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND STABLE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES WESTERN WA ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...THEN RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK. && .MARINE...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 WITH PRECIPITATION FROM LAST EVENING NOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. 06.08Z SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION... ALTHOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD MASS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BULK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI...SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FARTHER SOUTH. SOME WESTERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE GIVEN 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +1 TO + 3 CELSIUS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE CLOUDS BREAK-UP...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MOST AREAS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED FROM 5 TO 10 MPH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN SHIFTS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEGINNING SUNDAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BAGGY SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK OVERALL FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDES PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...06.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS EASTWARD EVOLUTION AFTER EJECTING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE WITH A DISTINCT NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM THAT NEVER FULLY PHASE AS THEY CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND DEVELOPS A STRONG CLOSED LOW THAT BARRELS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER AND DEVELOPS MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND MUCH WETTER. SUPERBLEND POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR ALL RAIN...BUT WITH COLDER VALUES INTO THE 30S AT NIGHT...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SHRA/ISOLD T HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING CIGS AS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. DIFFERING OPINIONS IN HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD ACROSS KRST/KLSE. LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD GO INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON FRI...GFS WOULD BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE RAP. GOING TO LEAN ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...HOLDING MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN HOW THE CLOUD TRENDS WILL PLAY OUT /COMPARED TO EARLIER/. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CIG FORECAST. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOOKS TO BRING BACK MORE CIGS...BUT THESE LOOK VFR AT THIS TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS. A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S. LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM SPELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH. PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SHRA/ISOLD T HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...LEAVING CIGS AS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. DIFFERING OPINIONS IN HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD ACROSS KRST/KLSE. LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD GO INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON FRI...GFS WOULD BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE RAP. GOING TO LEAN ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...HOLDING MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN HOW THE CLOUD TRENDS WILL PLAY OUT /COMPARED TO EARLIER/. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CIG FORECAST. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LOOKS TO BRING BACK MORE CIGS...BUT THESE LOOK VFR AT THIS TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. SO ONE LAST MILD DAY BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIR MASS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY PER UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 1.50 INCHES WHICH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SO IT WOULD APPEAR WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOW HUMIDITY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...IT WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THEN BECOMING SCATTERED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KTS COULD TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST AS THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK THE OUTLOOK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE. FROPA OCCURS BY 00Z AS WINDS WILL VEER RATHER QUICKLY TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. MAGNITUDES TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TO TAP INTO 20-30KTS OF WIND. MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45-55F DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. PER THE NCEP MODELS...IT WOULD APPEAR ONE MORE TROUGH /SURFACE AND ALOFT/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY AS CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AFTER A SUNNY DAY...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOCLR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE(S) THAT INTERACT WITH IT WHICH IMPACTS THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE STRATUS WILL LIFT DURING THE MORNING AS THE FLOW PICKS UP AND WE MIX. AN IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES GUSTY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLE CLOUDY. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT /0.25 INCH OR MORE/ RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE AFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME RECORDS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 6TH... ALBANY NY: 72 DEGREES 1948 DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 GLENS FALL NY: 70 DEGREES 2005 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 73 DEGREES 1978 RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM/BGM HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Cold front has now cleared the far southeast CWA and temperatures there are falling through the 50s. Remainder of the CWA starting to recover a bit, though temperatures were in the mid-upper 40s. Still quite a bit of high clouds streaming over southeast Illinois, though these are starting to shift eastward. Main concern for the rest of today is with the stratocumulus deck that is dropping south from northern Illinois. Leading edge of this starting to spread across areas northwest and north of Peoria. Latest HRRR drops the clouds about as far south as the Peoria metro and Bloomington before shifting east early this afternoon, which is supported by the RAP forecast soundings for these areas. Soundings further south show more in the way of scattered clouds at best. Zones/grids recently updated for these trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Another breezy day is expected today across central and southeast Illinois. However, it will be notably cooler than yesterday as a cold front will have passed through the region overnight. Still, these cooler temperatures will be much closer to normal for early November than we have seen the past few days. Temperatures are still hanging in the 60s in the far east, where FROPA has not occurred yet, but expect temperatures in this area to fall once the front arrives and struggle to rise much today. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 1032 mb high pressure over the Western States will settle east into IL overnight Saturday night and across the Ohio river valley and mid Atlantic States Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area this weekend with highs in the 50s and lows of 35-40F tonight and 30-35F Saturday night and Sunday night with a frost and even a freeze likely. A northern stream short wave trof will quickly pivot southeast across central IL Saturday morning and bring a period of clouds and pass through dry. Otherwise a fair amount of sunshine expected this weekend and into Monday. A southern stream short wave will lift ne across the Southeast States Mon and Monday night with its qpf staying southeast of IL though southeast IL may see more clouds. Temperatures to gradually modify into the middle of next week with southerly flow around high pressure over southern New England Tue. Highs reach the lower 60s Tue/Wed with southeast IL in the mid 60s on Wed. 00Z models still differ with track of low pressure system ejecting ne from strong upper level trof over the Rockies during middle of next week. GFS models remains the faster with ECMWF model slowest and GEM model in between. Stayed close to consensus pops from Tue night through Thu and highest pops being Wed afternoon and Wed night with isolated thunderstorms possible especially south of I-72 as consensus has cold front passing east through IL then. Low pressure pulls away from area Thu night and Friday returning dry and cooler weather with highs back in the 50s on next Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 558 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Breezy west to northwest winds are expected across the central Illinois terminals today in the wake of a strong cold front. The drier air filtering in behind the front is expected to keep cloud cover minimal through the 12Z TAF valid time. Winds are expected to diminish tonight as high pressure begins to build into the area. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEELHART SHORT TERM...BAK LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLOUD BASES WILL NOT LIFT MUCH UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT. KMSP... PRETTY STRAIGHT FOWARD CONDITIONS AT MSP. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10 KTS. SUN...VFR. WIND SSW AT 15 KTS. MON...VFR. WIND SSW AT 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD STRONG OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW AS ONE CDFNT DEPARTS AND A SECONDARY DRY CDFNT APPROACHES EARLY ON FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...JUST CEILINGS IN THE 2000-2500FT AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CEILINGS HEIGHTEN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. WINDS TO REMAIN WNW IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT LATE. KMSP...CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 1800 FT THRU THIS TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CEILINGS COULD DROP TO ARND 1700 FT BY THE MORNING PUSH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS THINKING ATTM BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...CEILING TO REMAIN IN UPPER- RANGE MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY THEN INCREASE TO 5 KFT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 10 KFT...FRI AFTN AND EVE. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. WIND W 10 KTS. SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 15 KTS. MON...VFR. WIND SSW 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
935 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 935 AM FRIDAY... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE...WITH ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THAT FLOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD KCLT AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IF RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY ALONG WITH HRRR WRF GUIDANCE...THIS RAIN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. STILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH PROGRESS EAST IN SPACE AND INTENSITY THAT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON IS PRUDENT. CONSIDERED A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE TRIAD BUT THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE AREA OF RAIN AND EVEN THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TRIAD DRY. CLOUDS ARE ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST...WITH ALREADY SOME SMALL CLEAR PATCHES IN THE AREA. MORE TEXTURED CLOUDS WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY CLEARING FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS BREAKS OCCURRING BETWEEN ABOUT 19Z AND 21Z. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AND CLOUD TRENDS THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW BREAKS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN SPACE AND TIME LIKELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE....AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...EVEN WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF BREAKS TEMPERATURES COULD RISE QUICKLY AND DID NOT CHANGES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY... ...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY... MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST. STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY... AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY... LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST LIFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). IN FACT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE...THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD ON WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI AOA 18Z...WHILE KEEPING KGSO AND KINT AT MVFR. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. A STEADY 5 TO 7KT SWLY BREEZE SHOULD DETER FOG...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF/CBL NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB...MORNING STRATUS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER ONCE IT DOES...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL NC...NEARING 80 DEGREES IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEES SOME SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY... ...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY... MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST. STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY... AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY... LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS AND HRRR CEILING PRODUCTS SUGGEST LIFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OWING TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 925MB(2.5KFT). IN FACT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE...THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD ON WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI AOA 18Z...WHILE KEEPING KGSO AND KINT AT MVFR. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY SWLY SFC FLOW...PERIODICALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15 KTS...MAINLY FROM RDU EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. A STEADY 5 TO 7KT SWLY BREEZE SHOULD DETER FOG...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. WAA PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...SFC COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT BAND/LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 947 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE LIGHT FLURRIES/SPRINKLES VS SHOWERS...WITH P-TYPE MOSTLY SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND RAIN (OR SNOW BECOMING RAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR) WITHIN AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPS ARE IN THE 34 TO 37 RANGE AND ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY MELT...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATION. FOR AFTN POPS...DID NOT LIKE THE 12Z NAM (TOO MOIST) NOR RAP (TOO DRY) AS WE DO SEE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA ON CANADIAN RADAR. WILL GO GENERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY NOONTIME...AS WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. AGAIN...P-TYPE ON EASTERN SIDE SHOULD GO TO ALL RAIN SHORTLY PER MORNING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND PLENTY OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COLD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NW...WITH ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME EVENING SNOW SHOWERS IN NW MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING. IT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS INTO THE 20S. ON SATURDAY...WAA BEGINS AT ALL LEVELS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 FOR SAT NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND +10C...SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NORTH AND EAST...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. FOR MON THRU THU...PERIOD BEGINS WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWED BY CONVERGING ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE GUIDANCE GENERATE A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN OR NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS (SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO). THE SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS DGEX DEPICTS A MORE DIFFUSE AND COL TYPE UPPER PATTERN AND HAS BEEN DISMISSED FOR THIS ANALYSIS. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OFFERING MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S STARTING OUT DROPPING CLOSER TO AVERAGE MID AND LATE WEEK. THIS REGIME AND TIME OF YEAR LENDS ITSELF TO MIXED PCPN OR SNOW EVENING THROUGH MORNING PERIODS WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TODAY ACROSS ALL SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...WJB/DK AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
844 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ON TUESDAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 845 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND HI-RES NAM THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINING A BAND OF SHOWERS. MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON PROGRESS OF THIS BAND TONIGHT AND WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS KEEP SOME MID LEVEL LIFT WHILE SOME LAYERS BELOW DRY CONSIDERABLY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY... AND THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS INDICATES AIRMASS ACROSS REGION WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN ON MONDAY...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF INCREASING POPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS BULLISH WITH A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE EURO RESTRAINS THE SAME FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. A TAD BIT DIFFICULT TO GENERATE A GOOD DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL GENERALIZED POPS OVER A PERIOD TO INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. OVERALL JET REMAINS RATHER ZONAL WHICH LENDS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS OH AND KY INTO WESTERN WV THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING. RESTRICTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED. DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH AS EKN REMAIN DECOUPLED THIS MORNING WITH 25 TO 30 KT WIND JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE...CREATING STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...A STRATUS DECK MAY REFORM ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...RPY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
923 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PASSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 923 AM EST FRIDAY... THE MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR FROM AROUND 800 MB TO AROUND 600 MB WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HINDERING THE CLOUD ADVANCE EAST AND MIXING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TOLEDO TO WEST MEMPHIS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW AND HRRR BLEND FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WILL THIN WITH SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND MIXING FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD CHEW AWAY AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER. AT 09Z/4AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ORD/CHICAGO AREA INTO EAST TEXAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS OUTPACED THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CVG/CINCINNATI TO BNA/NASHVILLE. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT THE SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA (WV COUNTIES INTO FAR WRN VA) BETWEEN NOON-3PM. THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TODAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...SO EVEN IF SHOWERS REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANYTHING ACTUALLY CROSSES INTO THE PIEDMONT. FOR TODAY WILL KEEP MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FOR TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SHOWERS SPREADING EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ATTM THINK SHOWERS SHOULD REACH BLF/BLUEFIELD AND LWB/LEWISBURG AREAS BETWEEN NOON- 3PM...THEN INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 4-7PM...SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS BETWEEN 7-10PM. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER PRIOR TO THESE TIME FRAMES...BUT MAIN THREAT SHOULD AWAIT ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY SLOW MOVING ANAFRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ADVERTISE THE SAME SOLUTION WITH WAVES ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION... THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHTER ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL TAPER POPS A BIT UP NORTH. EXPECTED QPF DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO EXPECT AN EARLY HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THEREAFTER. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RAPID END TO PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE HINTING AT SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE RIDGE AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING RESEMBLING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND TAKE UP A FAMILIAR WEDGE POSITION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US PLEASANT BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ALLOWS ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR LATER ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH QPF EVENT AS THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPLIT WITH THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING BY BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WEDGE SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY... SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WPC RECOMMENDED USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AT THIS TIME FRAME. WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY... HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND WE GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM EDT FRIDAY... STRATUS IS RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SCOUR MOISTURE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF LOW CIGS BY TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THREAT FOR SHOWERS...BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS VCNTY OF KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EAST TO NEAR KBCB/KROA AROUND SUNSET. CAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY...LOW CIGS AND PRECIP LINGERING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE VERY PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING...INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS INDICATE RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 435 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains. This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler temperatures through early next week. The next chance of widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west. Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today? Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850 mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing potential. For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the 850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the 5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway. Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from 0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat night will actually be several degrees above average given the extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours. Sunday temps will be around average. Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID. /Nisbet Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The lows will range in the 30s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The forecast confidence will remain quite low for most sites this morning due to widely varying conditions under a expansive blanket of low clouds. Confidence is high that most if not all sites will see at best MVFR cigs this morning at least over the eastern third of WA into north ID with bases generally no higher than 015. PUW and GEG will likely see the worst of the conditions with cigs below 005 and vsbys ranging from 1-3 miles or worse at times. For MWH and EAT our confidence is even lower since we can`t see how expansive the low clouds on satellite due to considerable high clouds however there is patchy fog around both sites according to nearby obs and webcams. Our confidence of improving conditions for the afternoon is fairly high for PUW and LWS as low level winds turn to the S-SE. These improving conditions will gradually spread N- NW with time however how quick is the question. Its quite possible MVFR cigs will persist through the entire day with the main improvement revolving around increased visibilities. For tonight, the low clouds should ease over most of the sites, with VFR cigs prevailing. The only exception is for EAT where a incoming cold front will likely drop cigs into the MVFR category toward morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40 Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50 Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40 Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40 Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40 Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50 Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60 Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10 Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20 Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF FOG THIS AM. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND DURING THE DAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN. UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...GENERALLY NORTH OF A TILLAMOOK TO BATTLE GROUND LINE. TO SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY. BUT...WITH HAVE A PROBLEM. WITH THE CLOUD BREAKS...HAVE HAD FOG FORM OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. GENERALLY THE VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG RUNNING 1/4 TO 1 MILE...WITH FOG LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY CLOSER TO 1/8 OF A MILE. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY YET...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION THIS AM...WATCH FOR BIKERS AND PEDESTRIANS...AND BE PREPARED TO STOP SUDDENLY IF NEEDED. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NOON TO 2 PM. SO...EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY ONLY TOP IN THE LOWER 50S. MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT IN KEEP PRECIPITATION WITH THE INCOMING FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF RAIN N OF LINCOLN CITY FOR TONIGHT. AS FRONT PUSHES TO COAST...RAIN SHOULD INCREASE ON THE COAST SAT AM AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE NOT LIKE LAST WEEKEND... RAINFALL STILL MODEST WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH FOR INLAND AREAS WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR COAST MTNS AND S WASH/N ORE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOLD AT 7000 TO 8000 FEET THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL START DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 OR 4500 FT BY SUN AM. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AND WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING NEAR PASS LEVELS...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATE AT AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TRAVELERS OVER CASCADES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS ON SUN THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IN THE CASCADES. ROCKEY. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS DROP DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE PASSES AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS START TO CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THIS ALSO CLEARS OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD ALSO HELP CREATE VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MAYBE SOME MORE SNOW TO THE PASSES ON THURSDAY. -MCCOY && .AVIATION...A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES...AND CLEARING SKIES FARTHER SOUTH HAS LED TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 3KFT AND 6KFT ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO WILL CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN UPSTREAM SITES KSLE AND KUAO ARE STILL OVERCAST AND VFR. WEAK SOUTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR ANY AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE...BUT THERE MAY ENOUGH OF A WINDOW OF LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING MORE SOLIDLY TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS FORMING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRIDAY IF CURRENT CIGS BETWEEN 3KFT AND 6KFT DISSIPATE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW GIVEN THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN FARTHER SOUTH AT KSLE AND KUAO. /NEUMAN && .MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO PEAK LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW GUSTS OF 35 KT COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...BUT SUSPECT ANY WILL BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS. THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS...WILL ALSO SPREAD A LONGER PERIOD 12 TO 14 FT WESTERLY SWELL INTO THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 305 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains. This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler temperatures through early next week. The next chance of widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west. Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today? Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850 mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing potential. For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the 850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the 5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway. Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from 0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat night will actually be several degrees above average given the extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours. Sunday temps will be around average. Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID. /Nisbet Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The lows will range in the 30s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A low confidence forecast remains, but low level moisture and a developing south/southeast flow developing is expected to promote stratus and fog with IFR/MVFR conditions around the eastern TAF sites, including GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS. Timing and persistence of fog has least confidence, with transient mid to high clouds and the potential for stratus to win out. Either way, MVFR/IFR cigs are expected much of the period. But as the easterly flow increases, some improvement is projected near PUW toward 11-13Z. Amendments are likely. Patchier fog is possible around MWH, but confidence is even lower. /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40 Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50 Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40 Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40 Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40 Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50 Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60 Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10 Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20 Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
1256 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR AND CONTINUED WARMER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN THOSE AREAS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...COOLER AGAIN WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO THE COAST...VALLEYS AND COASTAL SLOPES AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT THAT TIME AS WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR THURSDAY. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NOT EVEN A HINT OF ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF IT FAR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE 7.8 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...WHEREAS THEY WERE 2.6 MB AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS REPORTING NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THESE STRONGER GUSTS AS OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WRF. CONSIDERING THE STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILL AND PASS/CANYON LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK RIDGE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN WARMING TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THAT DAY. THE STILL RELATIVELY COLD AIR MASS...WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESULTED IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE HIGH DESERTS THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING BELOW FREEZING IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEG C BY TONIGHT...SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE HIGH DESERTS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND AND THE RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. DEEP MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THE MORNING STRATUS IS UNLIKELY TO CLEAR MUCH...IF AT ALL...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN AGAIN...AND THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS THAN THE WINDS WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS. HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING WARMING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... 061700Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOCAL NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30 KT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH SAT MORNING...THOUGH THESE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...INCLUDING KONT. && .MARINE... 900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CA WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FEET MON-TUE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN THE FAVORED RIDGES...PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING DAY-TIME HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT WILL BE POOR TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS UNLIKELY TO BE MET AND THE RECENT RAINS SHOULD HAVE INCREASED FUEL MOISTURES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AND TURN ONSHORE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .CLIMATE... THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SAN DIEGO FOR OCTOBER WAS 7.7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THAT WAS ONLY THE FOURTH MONTH IN THE HISTORY OF SAN DIEGO WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR A MONTH WAS 7 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE MONTH YEAR +8.2 SEPTEMBER 1984 +7.7 OCTOBER 2015 +7.2 JULY 1984 +7.2 MARCH 2015 && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL CLIMATE...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Area of stratocumulus that was inching southward earlier today has made its southernmost progress generally along I-74, and clouds on the southern flank are breaking up early this afternoon. Some of the high clouds over the southeast CWA had thinned out earlier, but another wave is advancing northeast from the stream of clouds originating in Texas. While these features will fade some with time, some more cloudiness will be moving in later this evening with a shortwave currently moving east from the central Plains. Net effect will basically be partly cloudy skies over the forecast area through tonight. Temperatures should be more November-like as opposed to the unusually mild lows the last few nights, with most areas dipping into the mid-upper 30s. South of I-70, the steady stream of cirrus should keep temperatures up a bit, with lows in the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 High pressure will continue to build into the region over the weekend with dry and slightly below normal temperatures. This high pressure will influence the weather through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. As the high pressure shifts east Sunday into Monday, temps will begin to warm back to just above normal for the first half of the week. As this high shifts east, a weather system will also develop out in the western plains and move east toward the midwest for the middle of the week. Models differ with timing and speed of this system and associated precip. Models were quite far apart earlier today, but are beginning to get a little closer in agreement. The Canadian and ECMWF take the low track northwest of the area while the GFS has the low tracking right over the CWA. Canadian is about 6hrs faster than the ECMWF and GFS. So, taking a blend of the models, gives the result of high chance pops for Wed, likely pops for Wed night and then precip diminishing some Thursday. So, light precip expected beginning Tues night and then become more moderate/heavy for Wed and Wed night. Based on the current forecasted strong dynamics of this system, isolated thunderstorms also look possible. Initial thoughts are that precip will end late Thursday, bringing the return of dry weather for Thursday night and Friday. Above normal temps for Tue and Wed will be short lived as cooler air will advect in behind the mid-week system, so below temps are expected for Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Area of MVFR ceilings settling southward from northern Illinois and has reached about a KPIA-KPNT line, but some additional diurnal development has occurred as far south as KDEC-KCMI. Main period for MVFR conditions will be through early afternoon, as the cloud heights are slowly lifting and the HRRR pulls the cloud deck northeast out of the TAF sites by 21Z. A few more hours of gusty winds will occur as well, before settling down with sunset. VFR conditions to prevail the remainder of the period. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1114 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 958 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Cold front has now cleared the far southeast CWA and temperatures there are falling through the 50s. Remainder of the CWA starting to recover a bit, though temperatures were in the mid-upper 40s. Still quite a bit of high clouds streaming over southeast Illinois, though these are starting to shift eastward. Main concern for the rest of today is with the stratocumulus deck that is dropping south from northern Illinois. Leading edge of this starting to spread across areas northwest and north of Peoria. Latest HRRR drops the clouds about as far south as the Peoria metro and Bloomington before shifting east early this afternoon, which is supported by the RAP forecast soundings for these areas. Soundings further south show more in the way of scattered clouds at best. Zones/grids recently updated for these trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Another breezy day is expected today across central and southeast Illinois. However, it will be notably cooler than yesterday as a cold front will have passed through the region overnight. Still, these cooler temperatures will be much closer to normal for early November than we have seen the past few days. Temperatures are still hanging in the 60s in the far east, where FROPA has not occurred yet, but expect temperatures in this area to fall once the front arrives and struggle to rise much today. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 1032 mb high pressure over the Western States will settle east into IL overnight Saturday night and across the Ohio river valley and mid Atlantic States Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area this weekend with highs in the 50s and lows of 35-40F tonight and 30-35F Saturday night and Sunday night with a frost and even a freeze likely. A northern stream short wave trof will quickly pivot southeast across central IL Saturday morning and bring a period of clouds and pass through dry. Otherwise a fair amount of sunshine expected this weekend and into Monday. A southern stream short wave will lift ne across the Southeast States Mon and Monday night with its qpf staying southeast of IL though southeast IL may see more clouds. Temperatures to gradually modify into the middle of next week with southerly flow around high pressure over southern New England Tue. Highs reach the lower 60s Tue/Wed with southeast IL in the mid 60s on Wed. 00Z models still differ with track of low pressure system ejecting ne from strong upper level trof over the Rockies during middle of next week. GFS models remains the faster with ECMWF model slowest and GEM model in between. Stayed close to consensus pops from Tue night through Thu and highest pops being Wed afternoon and Wed night with isolated thunderstorms possible especially south of I-72 as consensus has cold front passing east through IL then. Low pressure pulls away from area Thu night and Friday returning dry and cooler weather with highs back in the 50s on next Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Area of MVFR ceilings settling southward from northern Illinois and has reached about a KPIA-KPNT line, but some additional diurnal development has occurred as far south as KDEC-KCMI. Main period for MVFR conditions will be through early afternoon, as the cloud heights are slowly lifting and the HRRR pulls the cloud deck northeast out of the TAF sites by 21Z. A few more hours of gusty winds will occur as well, before settling down with sunset. VFR conditions to prevail the remainder of the period. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEELHART SHORT TERM...BAK LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
242 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY. TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR. SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FIRST TWO NIGHTS...WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...AND CHANCE/TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PACIFIC IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS WERE STARTING FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WERE NOT QUITE AMPLIFIED/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE ALASKA SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WAS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. OVERALL THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT WELL AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF/NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. COULD END UP RATHER MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWING FOG IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS. WILL PROBABLY END BEING A THICK FROST OR DEW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...RETREATING SURFACE HIGH/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH THE PROGGED 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO CREATE BREEZY AND ESPECIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO BE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SO WE LOOK SAFE FOR NOW ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. AGAIN THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH A CONTINUED DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN END UP AS FROST OR DEW. MONDAY...DEEP DRY AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING OR BE NEAR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. JET/LEFT FRONT QUADRANT GETS STRONGER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A DEEP DRY LAYER...IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SOME PRECIPITATION... THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS... DIFFERING TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. FOR THE GFS...THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BECOME SLOWER AND IT IS NOW THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z ECMWF STILL HAS ABOUT THE SAME PATH AND IS THE MOST WOUND UP AS BEFORE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE GFS. CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE GEFS TENDED TO SIDE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION. THE WPC DISCUSSION AND MANUAL PROGS WENT TOWARD THE INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION...CLOSER TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN SOLUTION. THE INIT BLEND REFLECTED THE INTERMEDIATE/SLOWER SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...MADE NO CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR POPS. THIS AMOUNTED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GOING WITH THE ABOVE DEPICTION...I SLOWED DOWN/KEPT THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FURTHER WEST. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO JUST ACROSS THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. A MIXTURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THAT AND ALL RAIN STILL IN THE EAST. THE SNOW OR MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THE MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ENDING AT THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME AM EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BUT THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY IF MORE WAFFLING OF SOLUTIONS OCCUR. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS I COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO I INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP CATEGORY TO 1500 KFT AGL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08-09Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN THE TREATMENT ON DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT I DECIDED AGAINST LOWERING CATEGORIES BELOW VFR. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA...TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS IN THE WEST HAVE RESULTED IN RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SATURATED THE DRY MIXED LAYER. THE FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...THE HIGHER THE WBZ HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST...SO I WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE (ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY. TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...NAM/SREF STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z SATURDAY. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. RAP IS MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...WITH HRRR TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH AND FOG SIGNAL. THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...AND WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MONITOR. SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BUILDING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WAA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHING AND MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THE GFS PRODUCES TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS...THE FIRST OF WHICH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WHILE THE SECOND CENTER IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SINGLE LOW CENTER PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO PRECIPITATION LONGER WITH GREATER AMOUNTS SHOWING UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION DEPICTED. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT PRODUCES SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS...PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS HAVE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF 0" ALONG THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDERS AND AROUND 1.3" NEAR THE NEBRASKA...COLORADO...KANSAS TRI-BORDER AREA. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN MORE THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH A GENERAL DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS I COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO I INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP CATEGORY TO 1500 KFT AGL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08-09Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN THE TREATMENT ON DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT I DECIDED AGAINST LOWERING CATEGORIES BELOW VFR. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DESPITE THE NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE 984MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING JAMES BAY...WITH THE COOL CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL WEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. LOW STRATUS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLING H850 TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C. THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 06.00 NCAR ENSEMBLE AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS H500MB HEIGHT RISES PROMOTES WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S/50S RANGE WILL MODERATE TO SUNDAY READINGS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE RAIN POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO DWINDLE...WITH MODELS SPLITTING THE SYSTEM INTO TWO PIECES OF ENERGY. THE NORTHERN WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 20-30 POPS THE BEST BET. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WANING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 21Z ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. KMSP...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY RISE TO VFR BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH SATURDAY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. WIND SSW AT 15-20 KTS. MON...VFR. WIND SSW AT 10-15 KTS. TUE...VFR. WIND S AT 10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AND MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE IT...BUT ALMOST CERTAIN WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...IN MODEST 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS... LIKELY RESULTING IN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE NATURE OF ITS PERSISTENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO NOTE THIS FEATURE IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS...DIMINISHING BY 00Z AND PROBABLY BEFORE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AFTERWARD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PERSISTENTLY HIGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO AT LEAST AROUND 1.75 INCHES UNDER MODEST 850MB CONVERGENCE. ANY MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE CLOSE TO...BUT PROBABLY JUST NORTHWEST OF...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SATURDAY. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH 06Z...BUT OVERNIGHT...THE RAP AND THE HRRR WRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM... MOIST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS IN AND NEAR THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DECENT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOCUSED FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO PART OF THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AN AREA OF BREAKS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE HRRR WRF FORECAST DEPICT A RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE NIGHT...ON AVERAGE...MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A LIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE SOUTHWEST WIND MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE LATTER MODEL...ALONG WITH THE LATEST ECMWF...MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT SEEMS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER SUPPORT...WITH JET SUPPORT STAYING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING WELL POST-FRONTAL. IN THIS SITUATION WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED FRONT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COULD BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION...BUT ALL OF THE TYPICAL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS MUCH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE AND THERE WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES AT BEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS K INDICES FALL TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO SINGLE FIGURES AT BEST...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY NOTE MODEST INSTABILITY...AND COMPUTED CAPE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS REGISTER...AT BEST...100 TO 200J/KG IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A GRADUAL FALL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LIKELY TOWARD THE TRIAD WHERE VALUES NEAR 70 AROUND LUNCH TIME COULD BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S BY 7 OR 8 PM. AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND EXPECT A FEW NOCTURNAL WIND GUSTS AT LEAST TO AROUND 20KT WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FOR MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR NOVEMBER 7. HOWEVER...EVENING COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 7 OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT...WITH PROBABLY ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 65 AT FAYETTEVILLE...FROM 2003...BEING APPROACHED. LEANING TOWARD THE MAV WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...A COOL MORNING TO START SUNDAY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND SETTLING JUST OFF THE NC COAST AND ACROSS GA/SC AS A PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE GUSTO. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHALLOW STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S... ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A STIRRING OF THE WIND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE MO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. WHILE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SETS VARY...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SAVANAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH POPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASING. WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CAD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE FAVORED DAMMING REGION ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. -BLAES && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY... IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...STUBBORN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT APPEARS TO LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TRIANGLE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDU DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EVENTUALLY DIMINISHES AS GUIDANCE PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTS...ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO AMOUNT AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD AMOUNT AND HEIGHT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RETURN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF LIFR OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TOWARD THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. DURING SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MOSTLY MVFR BY THE END OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND AREAS OF SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
102 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AND MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 935 AM FRIDAY... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE...WITH ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THAT FLOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD KCLT AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AS OF THIS WRITING...AND IF RAP AND BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY ALONG WITH HRRR WRF GUIDANCE...THIS RAIN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. STILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH PROGRESS EAST IN SPACE AND INTENSITY THAT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON IS PRUDENT. CONSIDERED A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE TRIAD BUT THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE AREA OF RAIN AND EVEN THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TRIAD DRY. CLOUDS ARE ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST...WITH ALREADY SOME SMALL CLEAR PATCHES IN THE AREA. MORE TEXTURED CLOUDS WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY CLEARING FOR A WHILE IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE NUMEROUS BREAKS OCCURRING BETWEEN ABOUT 19Z AND 21Z. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AND CLOUD TRENDS THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW BREAKS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN SPACE AND TIME LIKELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE....AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW...EVEN WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF BREAKS TEMPERATURES COULD RISE QUICKLY AND DID NOT CHANGES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AWAITING A SECONDARY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE IT FINALLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL WAA SHOWERS SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATE BY DAYBREAK. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY... ...ANOTHER WET AND DREARY SATURDAY... MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z IN THE WEST TO 00 TO 03Z IN THE EAST. STRONG FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH DYNAMICS LAGS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCAPE MAXIMIZED AROUND 400 TO 500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE LATER FROPA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST(I-95 CORRIDOR) ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULTING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SREF IS THE SLOWEST BUT STILL HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY NOON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD THE FROPA BE A BIT SLOWER. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC DURING THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE CAD SETTING UP...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...THUS THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY THOUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THEN SLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY... AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES. FOR NOW...EXPECT WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE STILL CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY... IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...STUBBORN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT APPEARS TO LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TRIANGLE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDU DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EVENTUALLY DIMINISHES AS GUIDANCE PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTS...ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO AMOUNT AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD AMOUNT AND HEIGHT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RETURN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF LIFR OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TOWARD THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. DURING SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MOSTLY MVFR BY THE END OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MONDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND AREAS OF SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
249 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK AND MINOT RADARS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL THAT SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL CLOUD FORECAST SHOWS THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREES THIS EVENING AS H850 WARM ADVECTION ERODES WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS. SATURDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 AFTER MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXPECT A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES. UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS FLATTEN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM WEST COAST TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLDER TEMPERATURES/LOWER THICKNESSES COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING EITHER THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA PER GFS...OR EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS PER ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN H85 COLD POCKET OF -4C BEING DRAWN INTO AND HOVERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH A MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE OVERALL NORTHERN TRAJECTORY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FIELD ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS IN TERMS OF SNOW SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK AND EAST INTO JAMESTOWN...FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT PER GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 LOW VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATO CU WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) Showers and storms continue to develop across the Northwest Hill Country this afternoon. Light northeast flow behind a cold front combining with the cloud cover spreading northward across much of the area to keep temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this afternoon. Models still have differences with regards to the expected convection tonight, as return flow starts to bring moisture up and over the cold front. GFS continues to confine much of the precipitation to the Hill Country and Heartland, while the HRRR and the TTU WRF show convection farther north and west into San Angelo and Abilene as well. The WRF and HRRR handled yesterdays lack of convection better, and were faster to break out the convection earlier today. Thus, will place the higher PoPs across the southeast, but will also increase the rain chances a little more across the Concho Valley and Big Country as well. A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air moves into the area tomorrow, ending the rainfall from north to south as it moves through. Still cool however, even with a little sun possible in the afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Friday) Isolated light showers along and south of the I-10 corridor end Saturday night, as dry air associated with surface high pressure builds in. 700 MB moisture and mid level clouds, however, will persist Saturday night and Sunday, mainly south of the I-20 corridor. Low level moisture and clouds return Monday as stronger southeast to south surface winds return Gulf moisture. The next chance of rain comes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as an upper low moves across the Texas Panhandle into the Central Plains. Unfortunately, most of the lift from this system is north of West Central Texas. Thus, will keep rainfall chances on the low side. A cold front associated with the upper low will also move through Wednesday, pushing low and mid level moisture east, and ending rain chances. The later half of next week is dry as surface high pressure dominates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 49 63 42 62 / 40 20 5 5 San Angelo 51 64 42 62 / 50 30 10 5 Junction 53 62 45 63 / 70 60 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 4
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PASSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM EST FRIDAY... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED AT BLF AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 75 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 74 DEGREES SET IN 1975. WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. AS OF 923 AM EST FRIDAY... THE MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR FROM AROUND 800 MB TO AROUND 600 MB WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HINDERING THE CLOUD ADVANCE EAST AND MIXING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TOLEDO TO WEST MEMPHIS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AND THEN INCREASE CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS RNK WRFARW AND HRRR BLEND FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. UNTIL ITS ARRIVAL...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WILL THIN WITH SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND MIXING FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD CHEW AWAY AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER. AT 09Z/4AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ORD/CHICAGO AREA INTO EAST TEXAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS OUTPACED THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CVG/CINCINNATI TO BNA/NASHVILLE. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT THE SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA (WV COUNTIES INTO FAR WRN VA) BETWEEN NOON-3PM. THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE ALOFT DRIVING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TODAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS...SO EVEN IF SHOWERS REACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANYTHING ACTUALLY CROSSES INTO THE PIEDMONT. FOR TODAY WILL KEEP MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST CAPE OF 400-800 J/KG CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FOR TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SHOWERS SPREADING EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ATTM THINK SHOWERS SHOULD REACH BLF/BLUEFIELD AND LWB/LEWISBURG AREAS BETWEEN NOON- 3PM...THEN INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 4-7PM...SHENANDOAH AND ROANOKE VALLEYS BETWEEN 7-10PM. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER PRIOR TO THESE TIME FRAMES...BUT MAIN THREAT SHOULD AWAIT ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY SLOW MOVING ANAFRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ADVERTISE THE SAME SOLUTION WITH WAVES ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION... THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHTER ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL TAPER POPS A BIT UP NORTH. EXPECTED QPF DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO EXPECT AN EARLY HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THEREAFTER. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BEFORE THE COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RAPID END TO PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE HINTING AT SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE RIDGE AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING RESEMBLING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND TAKE UP A FAMILIAR WEDGE POSITION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US PLEASANT BUT CHILLY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ALLOWS ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR LATER ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH QPF EVENT AS THE LATEST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPLIT WITH THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING BY BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WEDGE SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY... SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CROSSES FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WPC RECOMMENDED USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AT THIS TIME FRAME. WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY... HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND WE GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1256 PM EDT FRIDAY... SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGES SHOWED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS THE HIGHRES MODELS SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED SOLAR HEATING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL INTRODUCE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS VCNTY OF KBLF AND KLWB THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EAST TO NEAR KBCB AND KROA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION TO THE TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY...LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND DURING THE TAF PERIOD. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE VERY PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING...INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS INDICATE RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
303 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WHICH RESULTED IN A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN COAST RANGE AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN SW WASHINGTON. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT...PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BACK TO THE SW ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. AS A RESULT...TRENDED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH COAST FOR TONIGHT A LEADING IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY. THEN EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF STEADY RAIN TO REACH THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASES AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OR NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ENTERS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH SNOW LEVELS SHARPLY LOWERING FROM AROUND 7500 FT ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 3500 FT SUNDAY. EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ON THE CASCADE PASSES FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY....WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. DESPITE THESE AMOUNTS FALLING SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOSE WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED. SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/ ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR DETAILS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OFFSHORE AND MOVES OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AIDED BY THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME OF THESE TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE COVERAGE AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS BY THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXTEND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. COULD ALSO SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY MORNING IF CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CASCADE SNOW LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. /64 && .AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORTLAND. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZES WITH IT...AS WELL AS MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND LOW VFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE GORGE TO PREVENT ANY FOG TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE A CHANCE OF LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT && .MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR 3 OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE FOURTH. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THE WINDS TO AN END. SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PT && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 247 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system arrives late Saturday and Sunday delivering rain and mountain snow. This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler temperatures through early next week. The next chance of widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek. This weather system will bring a chance for light snow in the valleys and moderate to heavy snow in the mountains. A wetter and windy storm system is expected to arrive late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: A developing warm front will bring increasing clouds and potential for light precipitation across the Cascades and northern mountains. Precipitation amounts will be light with the best chance for a few hundredths along and north of Highway 20. Snow levels will range between 3600-4000 feet in NE WA to over 5000 feet in the Cascades. Precipitation will be too light to have much impacts but a dusting or so cannot be ruled out on Sherman Pass. For the remainder of the region, the focus will be on fog and low clouds. In theory, we should see less fog across southeastern WA, Spokane-Cda, and Ritzville tonight as winds pick up from the southeast. This flow pattern should shove the boundary layer moisture into Central WA toward the Wenatchee Area, Waterville Plateau, and valleys north of Hwy 2. This what short- range models have forecast since this morning however, there is some uncertainty that winds will be strong enough to push out the current low clouds and there is little in the way of drying heading this way. With increasing moisture in the mid and upper- levels, this does not bode well for fog but I believe the low clouds will stick around for many locations across the Upper Basin and most points west and north with impacts mainly focused on aviation. /sb Saturday through Tuesday morning...Model guidance is actually in pretty good agreement for the next several days. High pressure will strengthen Saturday as the incoming trough takes on a more north-south orientation. This will push the tonight`s warm front and accompanying moisture north into southern B.C. by morning. This will also allow the following cold front to slow down. While there will still be a good chance of precipitation across the extreme northwest portion of the forecast area through the day on Saturday. Precipitation amounts should remain on the light side away from the immediate Cascade crest. The cold front will then be on the Cascades between 06-12z Sunday and quickly track east across the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. The front will be the focusing point for the best precipitation. The trough will then move over the region Sunday night resulting in drying from the west, but keeping a good chance for mountains showers for the Idaho Panhandle. The atmosphere will destabilize enough on Monday as the cold core passes through the region to support widespread showers for just about all locations. But the best chances will be in the up-sloping areas of the Panhandle and Northeast Washington mountains. This weather system will tap into pretty decent Pacific moisture with PWATs around 200 percent of normal. So it looks like all locations will see measurable precipitation. The Cascade crest and Panhandle mountains, as usual, will be the big winners. Areas from the lower east slopes across the basin and into the Palouse will likely see from a tenth to a quarter of an inch, if not slightly more. The mountains will likely see from a quarter to three quarters of an inch of precipitation and locally up to an inch or higher. A a little tougher call will be just what will the precipitation type be. Snow levels rise to between 5-7k feet with the warm front and pretty much stay well above 5k feet until Sunday mid-day as the cold front moves through. Snow levels lower to between 4-5k feet by Sunday afternoon and 3-4k feet by Monday afternoon. For areas below 3k feet precipitation will be as rain, the exception maybe for the northern valleys up near the Canadian border where some light accumulations will be possible during the Monday morning commute. Otherwise precipitation will begin as mainly rain and high elevations snow in the mountains before turning to snow as the cooler air filters into the region. Snow amounts for the Cascades will likely be 3-5 inches with 5-8 for the northeast and Panhandle mountain by Monday morning. Temperatures will warm nicely on Saturday with warm air advection and be 3-6 degrees above normal. The cooling Sunday and Monday to the cooler side of normal. Winds will be slightly elevated with the cold front passage, but mainly under 15 mph. Tobin ...LIGHT VALLEY SNOW AND MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY... Tuesday through Thursday: The first in a pair of Pacific storm systems next week will arrive on Wednesday. The 12Z model guidance has come into much better agreement in the timing. The warm front looks to arrive Wednesday morning. Moist isentropic ascent will increase through the morning hours with this ascent will favor the northern mountains and the ID Panhandle. Precipitation will also begin to fall along the Cascade crest by the early morning hours on Wednesday in strong westerly flow. This should result in a shadow in the lee of the Cascades, which is expected to persist as the cold front pushes into the basin in the afternoon. The afternoon and evening period on Wednesday will likely be our best chance for precipitation across extreme eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle with cold front passage. Then the upper level trough will push in over the region for Wednesday night and will steepen mid level lapse rates considerably across the area. Moist westerly flow in an increasingly more unstable air mass will keep precipitation continuing over the Central Panhandle Mountains through much of Wednesday night. The main impacts from this weather system will be for accumulating snowfall. Snow levels will start out at valley floors across the northern mountains and in the ID Panhandle Wednesday morning. The upper portions of the Methow Valley and higher benches around Spokane will also see temperatures cold enough for a chance of some snow at onset in the morning. Any valley accumulations will likely be light as isentropic ascent will be weak Wednesday morning. Winds at 850 mbs will strengthen to around 30-40 kts out of the south by the afternoon. This is expected to moderate temperatures at lower elevations at least around the edge of the basin. It is difficult to say if the far northern valleys will see thermal profiles warm up enough for precipitation to turn over to rain. Models show wet bulb zeros height increasing to between 3-4 kft through the afternoon, so we will continue with the thought that the heaviest amount of snow will be at higher elevations. Snow levels will plummet Wednesday night when the upper level cold pool moves over. This will result in a stronger convective component to the precipitation with heavy snow showers continuing across the Central Panhandle Mountains. ...WET AND WINDY ON FRIDAY... Thursday night and Friday: The second storm system to impact the Inland Northwest will arrive on Friday. The Polar Jet will strengthen over the Gulf of Alaska to over 180 kts at 250 mbs. A rich plume of moisture will ride the jet and be directed into the Northwest. Expect a different set of characteristics with this second system. Temperatures will likely moderate considerably more through the day on Friday than expected on Wednesday. Although, we may see some snow falling in the valleys as this system begins to move in, I expect snow levels to increase quickly by the afternoon. Only the higher elevations will remain as snow with all other areas changing over to rain. Rain could be heavy at times, especially right along the Cascade crest, in the Northeast Mountains and in the ID Panhandle. Winds will also be a concern on Friday with models showing 850 mb winds to between 50-60 kts possible. /SVH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Ceilings associated with widespread stratus across the entire Columbia Basin expected to slowly lift and erode from south to north 18-23Z. Confidence is low that stratus will fully erode north of the Hwy 2 corridor and TAFS maybe a bit optimistic but have support from HRRR and NAM models. Otherwise...a developing warm front will bring increasing ceiling 6-8K ft AGL with areas of very light precipitation across the northern mountains tonight. Light SE flow overnight favors Wenatchee as the best candidate for stratus Saturday morning. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 36 50 40 45 35 41 / 10 10 70 80 30 30 Coeur d`Alene 35 49 39 43 35 41 / 10 10 60 90 50 30 Pullman 34 50 39 45 35 42 / 0 0 60 80 40 40 Lewiston 36 54 44 50 41 46 / 0 0 40 50 50 50 Colville 35 48 39 46 33 43 / 40 20 70 70 30 20 Sandpoint 34 49 36 43 33 41 / 20 20 60 90 50 30 Kellogg 32 47 35 40 34 40 / 10 10 50 80 50 50 Moses Lake 35 52 40 51 32 46 / 10 20 70 20 20 30 Wenatchee 38 50 42 51 37 47 / 10 40 60 20 20 20 Omak 36 46 41 48 35 44 / 20 40 70 40 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
927 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP REGION DRY TODAY...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH REGION TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH RAIN PUSHING TO THE COAST BY SAT AM...AND INLAND DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY KEEPS THE REGION GENERALLY DRY. A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...AND LOCAL SPOTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF A TILLAMOOK TO BATTLE GROUND LINE. TO THE SOUTH...A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS LIKE HILLSBORO THAT HANG ON TO CLOUDS LONGER. THESE AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S. EXPECT SOME SUN AND BLUE SKIES FOR MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY INLAND AND SOUTH...THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING ON THE FRONT AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE COAST NORTH OF LINCOLN CITY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE...THEN RAIN SPREADS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. STILL EXPECTING MODEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH INLAND...AND ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS 7000 TO 8000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER SATURDAY EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND EXPECT SNOW NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AND WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING NEAR PASS LEVELS...SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TRAVELERS OVER THE CASCADE PASSES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /SPSPQR/ FOR MORE DETAILS. CULLEN .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS DROP DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE PASSES AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS START TO CLEAR OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THIS ALSO CLEARS OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD ALSO HELP CREATE VALLEY FOG IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MAYBE SOME MORE SNOW TO THE PASSES ON THURSDAY. -MCCOY && .AVIATION...THE MAIN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING WAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE...AND THIS IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OR SO. OTHERWISE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTH COAST NEAR KAST WHERE SOME VFR OR LOCALLY MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. WE MAY SEE SOME LOCAL IFR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES...THOUGH A LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE GORGE MAY PROTECT MUCH OF THE PORTLAND AREA. THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT DOES NOT REACH KAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...AND INLAND UNTIL MID DAY SATURDAY. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE GORGE TO PREVENT ANY FOG TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PT && .MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. INITIALLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE HAVE A INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF GALE GUSTS AS THE CORE OF THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR 3 OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE FOURTH. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY BRINGING THE WINDS TO AN END. SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE WAVE MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT DECREASING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PT && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 435 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread clouds and fog will shroud much of the Inland Northwest today, however there will be little threat of precipitation except for a small chance of drizzle or flurries near the Canadian Border. For tonight and into early Saturday, locations near the Canadian Border will see a better chance of light precipitation as a warm front moves into the area. The warm front will likely move into southern British Columbia by Saturday afternoon, while a stronger cold front tracks toward the Cascades. The cold front will track over the region on Saturday night and Sunday resulting in a wet end to the weekend with snow over the highest mountains. This will be followed by hit or miss showers and cooler temperatures through early next week. The next chance of widespread precipitation will likely return by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday...Quiet and benign weather will be the norm today as upper level ridge will steadily build in from the west. Meanwhile the upper level jet will buckle into BC which in turn begins to forge a warm front and strengthening S-SE winds in the lower atmosphere. So what does that mean for the weather today? Perhaps not much. The main focus will revolve around a fairly saturated lower atmosphere. Model guidance has been consistent on keeping nearly saturated conditions from the surface to nearly 850 mbs. The latest fog product would substantiate this notion with widespread low clouds seen over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with some terrain above 4-5k feet poking through the stratus. Under this stratus we will continue to see areas of fog through the morning, so of which could be dense at times, especially from Spokane northward and eastward. Pockets of drizzle/sprinkles could also occur as weak ascent is forecast through this layer this morning, however we have yet to see proof of that notion. Conditions will gradually improve from the south as the warm front begins to take shape. Winds over SE Washington will begin to turn to the S-SE which will gradually improve conditions and eliminate the fog threat. The HRRR keeps the fog over the northern Columbia Basin and Spokane area through late morning, however its quite possible it will persist through midday or early afternoon due to ample moisture and limited mixing potential. For tonight and into Saturday morning, the warm front continues to strengthen with the boundary layer winds increasing to 10-15 mph over much of the area in response to a growing N-S pressure gradient. This should minimize the fog potential however it will also lead to a growing threat of precipitation, once again primarily near the Canadian Border due to moderate isentropic ascent. Amounts should be light but the precip type is not straight forward. There is no question the temperatures above the 850 mb level will rise steadily with snow levels climbing into the 5-6k ft range or higher by Saturday morning. However we don`t expect the lower elevations to warm quite as quickly. The question is could some of the far northern valleys fall below freezing this evening and remain there as the precip arrives. If that were to occur we could see some brief light freezing rain and the SREF hints at a small chance of this happening. My confidence in this is quite low as this is the wrong time of year climatologically speaking plus we don`t have deep cold air in place. However it bears watching. By afternoon the warm front scoots north of the Canadian Border and the main precipitation threat will transition to a stronger cold front. This front will feature far greater ascent and deeper moisture. The combination will likely deliver light precipitation the Wenatchee and Okanogan Valley area with moderate precipitation expected near the Cascades. Snow will be possible generally at or above 5000 feet with snow possibly impacting higher portions of the North Cascade Highway. Temperatures will finally warm above normal conditions due to the relatively mild south-southeast winds. Look for most of the high temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to middle 50s. fx Saturday Night and Sunday: The upper level trough axis will move onshore and a cold front will slowly move across eastern WA and north ID. Through the evening the best chance of precipitation will fall west of a line from Colville to the Tri Cities. Then through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning the front will move through extreme eastern WA and north ID. Snow levels will lower through the period. The best locations for accumulating snow will be across the Cascades and the northern mountains of WA and ID. Snow levels there will start out about 5k feet Sat evening and by Sunday afternoon lower to 3500-4000 ft. Snow totals will generally range around 2-4 inches in the mountains. The exception to this will be across extreme northeast WA and north ID where their heavier precip amounts will coincide with the slightly lower snow levels early Sunday morning and they could see some local accumulations up to 8 inches...generally above 5k ft. No accumulating snow is expected at this time for any of the valley locations. Liquid precipitation amounts will vary; ranging from 0.10-0.20 across the Basin and Wenatchee/Waterville Plateau areas to 0.25-0.50 inch east of a line from Omak to Pullman. Temps sat night will actually be several degrees above average given the extensive cloud cover and slightly elevated winds. Have added some patchy fog across the northern valleys through the morning hours. Sunday temps will be around average. Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main energy associated with the trough will continue to dig south. The cold core of the trough will remain over the area for continued threat of showers across the mountains and portions of extreme eastern WA Monday. By Tuesday a shortwave ridge pushes into the area for dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to cool with below average readings expected Monday and Tuesday. Fog is a good bet Monday night through Tuesday morning across most valleys of NE WA and N ID. /Nisbet Tuesday night through Thursday: This period is expected to bring a decent amount of precip to the region. A trough will breakdown a weak ridge and pump a significant amount moisture into the region being supported by an upper level jet. of Unfortunately the model agreement is not to high to pin down the exact timing of the impacts of the upcoming systems. The GFS is bringing this trough in on Wednesday morning, around 18 hours faster than the ECMWF and Canadian models. The best period for precip is expected to be Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Isolated showers in the Cascades will be possible before this but the amount of precip from these showers will be fairly light. As for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the Northern Cascades will be impacted the most with the higher snow amounts expected for roads and passes in the area. The other higher terrain across the Canadian Border and Idaho Panhandle will receive snow but not expected be a significant amount. Valleys in these areas could get snow in the earlier morning hours of Thursday. The Columbia Basin can expect mostly rain showers but winds will begin to increase as the trough approaches with gusts in the 40 MPH range. Highs for the region will be in the mid 40s to low 50s for the lower elevations. The lows will range in the 30s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The forecast confidence will remain quite low for most sites this morning due to widely varying conditions under a expansive blanket of low clouds. Confidence is high that most if not all sites will see at best MVFR cigs this morning at least over the eastern third of WA into north ID with bases generally no higher than 015. PUW and GEG will likely see the worst of the conditions with cigs below 005 and vsbys ranging from 1-3 miles or worse at times. For MWH and EAT our confidence is even lower since we can`t see how expansive the low clouds on satellite due to considerable high clouds however there is patchy fog around both sites according to nearby obs and webcams. Our confidence of improving conditions for the afternoon is fairly high for PUW and LWS as low level winds turn to the S-SE. These improving conditions will gradually spread N- NW with time however how quick is the question. Its quite possible MVFR cigs will persist through the entire day with the main improvement revolving around increased visibilities. For tonight, the low clouds should ease over most of the sites, with VFR cigs prevailing. The only exception is for EAT where a incoming cold front will likely drop cigs into the MVFR category toward morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 40 35 49 39 46 36 / 10 10 10 80 70 40 Coeur d`Alene 42 35 50 39 43 36 / 10 10 10 60 80 50 Pullman 44 35 51 38 44 35 / 10 10 0 40 70 40 Lewiston 49 37 54 43 49 40 / 10 10 0 20 50 40 Colville 40 35 47 37 47 34 / 10 30 30 80 60 40 Sandpoint 39 33 48 35 42 32 / 10 20 20 60 80 50 Kellogg 39 33 46 36 38 34 / 10 10 10 40 80 60 Moses Lake 48 34 52 39 52 34 / 10 10 10 60 10 10 Wenatchee 50 41 51 43 53 38 / 10 10 30 70 10 20 Omak 45 39 49 40 50 35 / 10 20 40 60 20 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$