Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
811 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND
COMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE FINAL TRAILING SHORTWAVE AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE LOST THEIR CONVECTIVE
CHARACTERISTICS AND HAVE BECOME MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE SINCE
SUNSET. THE BACK EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AS OF 03Z ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO NOTED BETWEEN BLYTHE AND YUMA.
HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO NEW MEXICO BY
DAYBREAK. IN THE INTERIM...POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS
EAST OF PHOENIX OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
WITH COLD AIR RAPIDLY ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW RIGHT AS THE PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END. SNOW LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 6000FT BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
UNLIKELY.
TEMPS ALREADY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW INHERITED VALUES /LIKELY
DUE TO ONGOING RAINFALL/. LOWS LOOK REASONABLE BUT I ACCELERATEDTHE
COOLDOWN A BIT AND KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S/UPPER 40S. DIURNAL CURVE
WILL FLATTEN OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ONCE RAINFALL COMES TO AN
END.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BUT A RIDGE
TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECLINE IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM DIGS BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS
HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. RADAR TRENDS NOW
INDICATING DRY WEATHER ARRIVING BETWEEN 04Z-06Z WITH CIGS RAPIDLY
IMPROVING OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY SWINGING AROUND OUT OF THE NORTH
AND EVEN NORTHEAST...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/AJ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
STARTING TOMORROW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WE`LL THEN SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY BUT THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
NOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS HEADING THIS WAY AND IS HINTING AT A LITTLE
MORE WEATHER FOR SE AZ THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS INCLUDING THE
02Z HRRR...00Z NAMDNG25 AND GFS ARE SHOWING A MODEST INCREASE IN
WIND FIELDS AND OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTH. IT ISN`T MUCH BUT IT WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR PRECIP CHANCES. AS A RESULT WE`VE
TWEAKED SURFACE DEW POINT AND RH FIELDS UP AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SUBSEQUENTLY
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FOR THE TROUGH TO WORK WITH...WE`VE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AS WELL AS MASSAGING QPF VALUES UP. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND .10 TO .35 AND
MOUNTAINS .4 TO .7 OR SO. STORM TOTAL SNOW ABOVE 7K FEET AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR MT LEMMON...4-5 INCHES FOR MT GRAHAM AND 5-7 INCHES FOR
HANNAGAN MEADOW IN THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS (NORTHERN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES)
WITH THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IN COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAST WE
CLEAR OUT. OTHERWISE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING
COLDER WITH MUCH OF COCHISE AND PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE FREEZE.
RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A STRONG WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/05Z.
SKC CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
03/14Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SURFACE WIND AFT 03/14Z...WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL AND SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS BY 03/20Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -SHRA AFT 03/22Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NORMAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE ON
TAP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MEYER/LADER
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW
MOVEMENT EASTWARD. 100KT JET SETS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT PROVIDING
DEEP VERTICAL FORCING. BETTER FORCING OCCURS OVER THE NW CWA THIS
EVENING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EASTERN UTAH. 700MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -4C OVER EASTERN UTAH BY 12Z FOR SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR
7000FT. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 8000FT AND ABOVE. THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7K TO 8K FEET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL ALL LEND THEMSELVES TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR AND RAP REALLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS BAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN IT FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST.
THESE MODELS NOT APPEARING TO TAKE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO ACCOUNT
THOUGH NAM/GFS LOOK LIKE THEY DO. EITHER WAY...EXPECT HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO SEE CONTINUED SNOWFALL WITH SOME LULLS FROM TIME TO
TIME. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING NRN
MTNS. THESE MTNS REALLY PREFER NW FLOW AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SW TO W FLOW SO SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IFFY THERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY OVERRIDE WIND DIRECTION AND PRODUCE WARNING AMT
SNOWFALL HOWEVER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. GFS HIGHLIGHTING A
DEFORMATION ZONE TO SET UP OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE NAM SHOWS NOTHING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS BECAUSE IF THE ZONE SETS UP...A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY
PRECIP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE DIVIDE BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE OVER. FOR FRIDAY...A QUICK WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM ID/MT
AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND FLATTOPS BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...EXPECT A RETURN TO SUN WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES.
VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY
REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!
TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACNW
AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PROBABLY SOME
SNOW. ANOTHER WINDY DAY POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER. NRN MTNS LOOK
FAVORED ATTM AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW FAVORING THAT AREA.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT STORM
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY TO 50
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TODAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE -TSRA...WHICH COULD GENERATE SUDDEN WIND
GUSTS.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 070-080 MSL WITH IFR
CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. MOUNTAINS BECOME
OBSCURED WITH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-007-
009-011-017>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-017.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-008-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ009-010-012-013-018-019.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-025-
027>029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF/JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
415 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM
IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT
BEEN EXHAUSTED.
THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...
DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES...
WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING
HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S.
THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH.
THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT
ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME
VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW
LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME
FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS
COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER
JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S
CWA-WIDE.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING
TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT
TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO
CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE
LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL
AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF.
SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY.
WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001.
AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME
WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY.
AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING
THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.
EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM)
INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID)
AND AT KPSF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN.
A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION
BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY
SENSIBLE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
A FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT RH VALUES. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE WIND TODAY WILL START OUT CALM...INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY
5-10 MPH...THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEFORE
DISSIPATING TO CALM TONIGHT.
RH VALUES LOOK A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE
OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
THURSDAY BUT THAT WOULD BE EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE
MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS
ON THE WATERSHEDS.
OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM
IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT
BEEN EXHAUSTED.
THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...
DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES...
WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING
HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S.
THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH.
THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT
ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME
VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW
LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME
FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS
COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER
JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S
CWA-WIDE.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING
TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT
TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO
CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE
LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL
AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF. SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR
HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY.
WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001.
AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME
WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY.
AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING
THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.
EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM)
INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID)
AND AT KPSF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN.
A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION
BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY
SENSIBLE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE
MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS
ON THE WATERSHEDS.
OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RETREATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF A VERY WEAK WARM WAS WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THERE WERE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF I-90.
WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE REGION...LITTLE OR NO
WIND...AND THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...TEMPERATURES IN SOME CASES HAD
DROP NEAR THEIR PREVIOUS ADVERTISED MINIMUMS. WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSING
IN ON THE TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL NOT LIKELY DROP A WHOLE LOT
MORE AS SOME PATCHY FOG FORMS. DID ADD MORE PATCHY FOG WITH THIS
UPDATE.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OUTLYING AREAS. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY NOVEMBER DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY. SOME EARLY CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FAIRLY GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING
FURTHER...ALTHOUGH SINCE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SHALLOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL START TO BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BRINGING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND MILDER MIN TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WITH WILL TURN BELOW
NORMAL AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A SLOW DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSUE...AND SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES IN SPOTS...FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AT OR UP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE STILL THINK MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WE DECIDED TO ADD SOME TEMPO IFR FOG TO KGFL (WHICH
ALREADY BRIEFLY SOME) AS WELL AS KPSF FROM 08Z-12Z. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 40...BUT WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BOTH
PLACES INTO THE UPPER 30S.
OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) INDICATED NO FOG
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM)
INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID)
AND COULD FORM AT KPSF.
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUED WITH MIFG ONLY AT THE KALB AND KPOU BUT THEY
ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS EITHER. CONFIDENCE AT BEST IS
ONLY MODERATE THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM AT BOTH THOSE TAF SITES.
PLEASE CHECK BACK AROUND DAYBREAK IF PLANNING TO FLY OUT OF ANY OF
OUR AIRPORTS AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE FOG COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP BY
THEN.
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL START
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION 5-10KTS TURNING TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION
BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY
SENSIBLE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS.
OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
858 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS EVENING. MAIN FEATURE
THAT STICKS OUT IS A DEEP/SHARP TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. THE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EASTWARD
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ARE FORCING FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION TO THE DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. THIS RIDGE IS CERTAINLY IN CONTROL OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL BE HELPING TO KEEP OUR
WEATHER VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROTECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
ENERGY AND OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT TIMES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS...THIS IMPULSE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION.
THURSDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...AND
THEREFORE...NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. SOME AREAS OF LOWER
STATUS/FOG VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. H5 HEIGHTS OVER 590DM (VERY HIGH FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER) WILL CONTINUE WITH 850MB BETWEEN 15-17C. MAKES YOU
REALLY WONDER WHAT MONTH IT IS. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL ADD UP TO
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY END UP IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPING IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IT A BIT DRIER ALOFT
ON THURSDAY...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND LIKELY LESS THAN
TODAY (WHICH WAS NOT MUCH). OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL REANALYZE THE
EXPECTED COLUMN...AND MAY END UP ADDING IN A 20% POP IN A FEW
PLACES...BUT GENERALLY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE ON THURSDAY.
JUST A VERY WARM EARLY NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MID EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD
OF MAINLY CEILING RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z FOR KLAL/KTPA/KPIE AND
KSRQ...WHERE LOW END MVFR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE
BETWEEN 09-13Z. LOWER CONDITIONS INTO IFR ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
AND UPDATES WITH THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE ARE POSSIBLE. CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. &&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND REGIME ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOST
ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ASSOCIATED
WITH NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 89 73 88 / 10 0 10 20
FMY 75 90 72 89 / 10 0 0 20
GIF 73 88 71 88 / 10 0 10 20
SRQ 74 89 73 87 / 10 0 0 20
BKV 72 89 69 88 / 10 0 0 20
SPG 75 88 74 86 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
912 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Clearing has developed in most of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, which should facilitate the start of fog formation,
but most likely not dense fog. That will be mainly due to the fact
that mid-level clouds are still poised to move north into our
area from southern IL and SE Missouri. RAP forecast soundings
show a moist layer around 4k feet through the night, so believe
that clouds will still eventually cover much of the area by
sunrise. Have updated sky conditions to reduce evening clouds,
then increase after midnight.
HRRR vis forecast shows dense fog mainly SE of I-70 later tonight.
MVN has already dipped to 1/4SM in fog, which matches the latest
HRRR output well. Have added areas of fog to the SE counties after
midnight, and lingered it to 14z. Will watch that area closely for
possible need for a dense fog advisory.
Temps and dewpoints still appear on track, with lows in the mid to
upper 50s. Updated forecast info will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be potential fog development
tonight. Widespread dense fog from early this morning dissipated by
midday, followed by partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Exact
degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question:
however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the
lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. In addition,
widespread cloud cover streaming northward from Arkansas/western
Tennessee should result in mostly cloudy skies tonight. Given the
cloud cover and slightly stronger winds due to a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of an approaching front, do not think fog will become
as widespread or dense as it has lately. As a result, will only
mention patchy fog in the forecast for tonight with low temperatures
dropping into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper
ridge over MS valley. Soundings continue to show significant
moisture below strong inversion, but with more gradient and
cloudiness, fog will be less than previous nights (as mentioned
previously).
Moisture flow will continue ahead of deepening frontal system
progged to move out of rockies. This will bring pcpn into area ahead
of the front. Instability will be limited, but strength of upper
support and wind flow will make some gusty winds possible with
the passage of some of the stronger showers/storms. Models
similar in movement of front on Thursday night, with decreasing
clouds by Friday after front moved through.
Cooler high pressure in control through weekend. Next chance of pcpn
with the next shortwave moving through Midwest midweek. Models
differ though on timing of this front, so chance pops in the
forecast for Tues night to Wed will need to be refined later.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main concerns are on fog potential and the progression and
coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. RAP soundings
are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet for the bulk of the
night at the terminal sites. Any cloud cover should help to
prevent the development of dense fog tonight, but any areas that
seen any period of clearing will likely see at least MVFR fog
develop. The supporting items for fog are that the airmass is
relatively unchanged and a moist low-level flow will continue.
The issues against fog are any cloud cover along with slightly
stronger southerly winds in advance of an approaching cold front,
which will create more mixing to prevent the widespread low
vsbys noted the past few nights. Have continued with only 3-4SM
vsbys between 04z and 16z. After that, winds will become
southwesterly and increase to between 10 and 15kt by late Thursday
morning, with any showers holding off until later in the day, and
mainly just near PIA and SPI after 21-22z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be potential fog development
tonight. Widespread dense fog from early this morning dissipated by
midday, followed by partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Exact
degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question:
however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the
lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. In addition,
widespread cloud cover streaming northward from Arkansas/western
Tennessee should result in mostly cloudy skies tonight. Given the
cloud cover and slightly stronger winds due to a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of an approaching front, do not think fog will become
as widespread or dense as it has lately. As a result, will only
mention patchy fog in the forecast for tonight with low temperatures
dropping into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper
ridge over MS valley. Soundings continue to show significant
moisture below strong inversion, but with more gradient and
cloudiness, fog will be less than previous nights (as mentioned
previously).
Moisture flow will continue ahead of deepening frontal system
progged to move out of rockies. This will bring pcpn into area ahead
of the front. Instability will be limited, but strength of upper
support and wind flow will make some gusty winds possible with
the passage of some of the stronger showers/storms. Models
similar in movement of front on Thursday night, with decreasing
clouds by Friday after front moved through.
Cooler high pressure in control through weekend. Next chance of pcpn
with the next shortwave moving through Midwest midweek. Models
differ though on timing of this front, so chance pops in the
forecast for Tues night to Wed will need to be refined later.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main concerns are on fog potential and the progression and
coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. RAP soundings
are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet for the bulk of the
night at the terminal sites. Any cloud cover should help to
prevent the development of dense fog tonight, but any areas that
seen any period of clearing will likely see at least MVFR fog
develop. The supporting items for fog are that the airmass is
relatively unchanged and a moist low-level flow will continue.
The issues against fog are any cloud cover along with slightly
stronger southerly winds in advance of an approaching cold front,
which will create more mixing to prevent the widespread low
visbys noted the past few nights. Have continued with only 3-4SM
visbys between 04z and 16z. After that, winds will become
southwesterly and increase to between 10 and 15kt by late Thursday
morning, with any showers holding off until later in the day, and
mainly just near PIA and SPI after 21-22z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under
the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over
Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and
persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up
east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around
where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models
depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night,
and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned
that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model
is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the
patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development
with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather
quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57
has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has
been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to
persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and
associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level
moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns
off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high
temperatures around 70 degrees.
Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a
strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This
system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the
California coast, which will eject toward the area starting
Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave
Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect
widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move
through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave
should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak
lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity
minimal.
The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with
near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high
pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western
U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have
temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week.
However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also
support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period
and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement
in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery,
but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing
in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be
patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus
lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not
get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of
the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly
flow with some variability under the ridge.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the
area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion
over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and
keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is
slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just
to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN
border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take
most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the
forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and
continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement
in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery,
but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing
in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be
patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus
lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not
get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of
the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly
flow with some variability under the ridge.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1103 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the
area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion
over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and
keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is
slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just
to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN
border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take
most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the
forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and
continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow
improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon.
Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning
with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement
in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in
place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will
keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning
and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before
another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast
area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly
direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
919 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
FOG HAS SLOWED ITS MORNING MARCH NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT DOES REMAIN
DENSE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE VISIBILITY DROPS WERE
NOTED EARLIER INCLUDING OUT OUR WINDOW. EVEN AT 9 AM...WEBCAMS
INDICATE REDUCTIONS FROM CLEAR VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OVER
JUST A FEW MILE DISTANCE ACROSS BOTH DUPAGE AND WILL COUNTIES.
WHILE THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY...THE VERY GRADUAL TREND
IN SEVERAL WEBCAMS AND THROUGH REPORTS HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT...SO
THE COLLABORATED PLAN IS TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AT 10 AM. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS INDICATED ON THE
12Z ILX RAOB IS ONLY AROUND 10 KT AND WITH WARMING AND MIXING
ENSUING...THIS GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND
HASTEN...LIKELY QUICKEST AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FOG DECK
/AROUND I-57/. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM NEAR BLOOMINGTON NORMAL
AIRPORT INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 1700 FT THICK WHICH LIKELY
SPEAKS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE
TOUGHEST TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN THIS AREA BY QUITE A
BIT. EVEN IF HOLES DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE AMOUNT OF TIME
FOR WARMING IS NOT THAT GREAT HERE IN NOVEMBER.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 70 READINGS. DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO NEAR THE WATER TEMPERATURE
READINGS...BUT THINKING ANY FOG OVER SHORE AREAS WILL PROBABLY
HOLD OFF TO AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST
CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF
NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS
DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND
1/4SM VSBY.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW
IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2
MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE
FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST
IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH
SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL
COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WEST OF THE TERMIANALS.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST WEST OF ORD.
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN AREA REMAINS WEST WITH
NO/LIMITED EASTWARD EXPANSION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LAKE LATER TODAY...WITH STRATUS/FOG BEING MORE PREVALENT
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. HAVE PULLED THE DENSE FOG FROM ORD/MDW.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT VLIFR FOG/STRATUS STAYS WEST OF ORD/MDW.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW IN
SPECIFIC TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
818 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...505 AM CST
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE
FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST
IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH
SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL
COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST
CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF
NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS
DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND
1/4SM VSBY.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW
IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2
MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
532 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
505 AM CST
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE
FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST
IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH
SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL
COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
503 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow
improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon.
Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning
with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement
in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in
place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will
keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning
and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before
another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast
area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly
direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions
remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it
too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z.
Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting
around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun
is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and
low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the
possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this
occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through
the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but
breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident
with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for
afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through
the period with speeds of around 10kts of less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Already updated forecast for rest of the night. Dense fog and very
low clouds are advecting into the area from the south, spreading
north/west and east some. Based on HiRes models this will continue
to spread out across most of central and east central...and
southeast Illinois rest of the night and into tomorrow
morning...during the morning commute. Advisory does not include
PIA or BMI, or northern areas of central IL, but will be closely
monitoring the area as it spreads north to see how north it could
get. HiRes models suggest it will cover all of the CWA, but unsure
at this time. If confidence increases, then another update and an
addition to the advisory will be needed at some point.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but
flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z
ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog
dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear
under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the
Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of
moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been
how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints
and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been
very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover
development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is
being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not
mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints,
the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is
further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for
tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up
on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest.
Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night
progresses with observation of the crossover drop.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends,
followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated
precipitation.
Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as
the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected
track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it
to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to
break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low
level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as
moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into
mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday
night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly
to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear.
Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to
categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as
dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe
probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage.
The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana
border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by
about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more
toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our
area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to
be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above
normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1
inch of rain in most areas.
Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but
significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break
up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon.
Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on
Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this
week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through
Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday
and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though,
so a slow warming trend is expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions
remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it
too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z.
Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting
around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun
is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and
low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the
possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this
occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through
the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but
breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident
with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for
afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through
the period with speeds of around 10kts of less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW POTENTIAL PROBLEMS CREEPING INTO SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAINLY
STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD COUPLED WITH ELONGATED SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK JUST TO OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT
HIRES MODEL RH PROGS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST IT COULD CREEP
CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE MIXING THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW STAYING WITH CLEAR FORECAST PER COLLABORATION AND WILL MONITOR
GOES FOG PRODUCT WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE WARM STRATUS CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REACH LOWER 70S ALL AREAS AND
SHOULD TACK ON A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY READINGS WITH ANOTHER 30
DEGREE DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN CLEAR BUT QUESTIONS DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND POSSIBLE MOVEMENT NORTH
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IL. NAM AND GFS LOW LEVEL
RH PROGS BOTH INDICATE THIS SCENARIO. NAM12 DOES APPEAR OVERDONE
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS RH IN POTENTIAL SOURCE REGION OF
KENTUCKY. WITH THAT SAID THERE IS SUPPORT FROM GFS WHICH ADVECTS
MOISTURE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH MET AND MAV MOS INDICATING
CATEGORY 1 FOR VIS TOWARD 12Z BUT NO INDICATION OF STRATUS. WITH
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TODAY IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WOULD BE A BIT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT TO AT LEAST REPRESENT SOME INCREASE TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION. WOULD EXPECT HIRES MODELS TO SHOW MORE
DETAIL LATER TODAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT
AND GENERALLY AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS
NOAM...PLACING OUR REGION IN DEEP S/SW FLOW. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS
IS THAT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS
RETURNING AS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR NOW
GIVEN TENUOUS MOISTURE DEPTHS AND CPD`S BUT MAY HAVE TO GO
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL TRYING TO GENERATE
SOME SPORADIC QPF GIVEN INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC FIELDS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE A BIT MEAGER FOR HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION...EVEN ON
THURSDAY. A STRAY SPRINKLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS POINT. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 70-LOWER 70S GIVEN VERY
WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LATEST CONSENSUS BLENDS STILL
IN THAT RANGE. RECORD HIGHS OF 74-76 LIKELY JUST OUT OF REACH BUT
THURSDAY`S RECORD AT KFWA OF 73 (SET IN 2008 AND 1978) MAY BE IN
DANGER IF WE MANAGE TO GET SOME SUN. A FEW RECORD WARM LOWS COULD
ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY.
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RAIN AND WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP
TIMING AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT THAT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED AS 50+ KT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS HIGHLY
EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF ROBUST
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT BEING
SAID...LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
925MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX THESE
WINDS DOWN. SURFACE GRADIENT ALSO VERY STRONG AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS ON ITS TREK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY. GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ARE LIKELY AND SOME GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING. COOL AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE
CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG
JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH
AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE
LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1237 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL HELP AMPLIFY MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WEST INTO THE OHIO/MID MS
VALLEYS. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE OF SAME INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
(UNSEASONABLY MILD/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/DRY). COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WITHIN INVERSION...BUT
COVERAGE/IMPACT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE GRIDS...WITH
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT
THIS FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHY OF
RECORD VALUES FOR NOV 3 (76 AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA).
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR
CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA HOLDING HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW KEPT WARM HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL BLEND. RECORD HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY 73 TO 76. A LARGE PIECE OF ENERGY AS AN UPPER TROF WILL
EJECT EAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
MATCHES EARLIER GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO AT BEST MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WINDS MAY BE MORE
THEN ENOUGH TO CHANNEL DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS EVEN THROUGH A
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY BETWEEN 10
AM EST NORTHWEST TO 7 PM EST SOUTHEAST OVER LIMA. ALSO...GFS
NON/CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS ARE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/58 MPH...SO
IT IS LIKELY SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE... DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE
CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG
JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH
AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE
LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1202 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WITH LINGERING STRATOCU DECK ACRS GENERALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA...CHALLENGING TEMP FCST AT HAND FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE GRADIENT POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST-TO-
NORTHWEST WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE SUNNY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
CWA. STILL EXPECT THE SUNNY AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DESPITE WEAKER MIXING REGIME AND THERMAL ROBBING HIGHER
SFC DPTS THAN YESTERDAY. BUT AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL IL IF THEY DO
NOT CLEAR OUT MAY BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AND DECAY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT THEIR EFFECT ON TEMPERING HIGHS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AT THIS
TIME OF DAY. ..12..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE
CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY
THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI
VSBY AT LAMONI.
NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY
NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH
SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW
POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY.
TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE
INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL
THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY ON...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE
DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHALLENGING FCST WITH A WIDE VARIABILITY POSSIBLE WITHIN A RATHER
SMALL AREA OF THE TAF REGION. AREAS THAT HAD THE IFR TO LIFR
CLOUDS/FOG SUCH AS THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES MAY BE PRONE AGAIN
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE. SOME
OF THE NEW RUN HIRES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT OTHER MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG/LOW CLOUD DECK FIELDS WILL DEVELOP MORE TO THE WEST OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHICH COULD ALLOW CID AND DBQ TO
REMAIN MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING OR MAYBE WITH JUST SOME
LIGHTER MVFR FOG AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE SAME MODELS ALSO KEEPING
MLI AND DBQ VFR UNTIL MID WED MORNING WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SEEP INTO THE VCNTY FROM THE WEST. BUT AM WORRIED WITH THE
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE THAT AT LEAST BRL AND MLI MAY GET
NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL
KEEP THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE IDEA OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-11 KTS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF THEY CAN STAY 7-8 KTS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALSO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS
HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY
SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS
MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL
LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN
DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR
WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW
REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY
ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH
SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DECENT MIXING WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE STRATUS FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT HOWEVER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE CWA I EXPECT LOW STRATUS/FOG TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS
HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY
SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS
MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL
LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN
DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR
WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW
REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY
ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH
SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT AREA OF ST EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST IA TOWARD
KDSM WHILE LIFR VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA SINCE 10Z. EXPECT FG/BR TO BEGIN BURNING OFF
AFT 1430Z. STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AFT 16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING MOST AREAS AFT 17Z...MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. AFT 04Z MAY SEE STRATUS/BR REFORM
OVER THE AREA. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
525 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE
CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY
THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI
VSBY AT LAMONI.
NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY
NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH
SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW
POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY.
TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE
INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL
THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY ON...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE
DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
RAPIDLY ADVANCING AREA OF LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS REACHED KBRL
AND KMLI AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH AIRPORTS THROUGH 15Z.
BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT...AND EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KCID.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-
ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS
HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY
SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS
MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL
LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN
DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR
WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW
REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY
ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH
SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS CURRENT MO/IL STRATUS EXPANDING WESTWARD
INTO KS/MO AND BUILDING INTO IA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
ITS PROGRESSION SO HAVE RELEGATED CIGS TO KDSM/KOTM FOR NOW. HAVE
STARTED WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES...BUT
IFR OR LIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR SLY WIND GUSTS. MODELS HINT
THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO TUE EVENING AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY NOT THERE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME RANGE AS OF
YET.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE
UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT
10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH
MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL
DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS
NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW
CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES
IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY
THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40
MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80
TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60
ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70
GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50
LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
951 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES DOWNEAST, AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY
BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS IN A FEW SPOTS. PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR
TRENDS. HOWEVER, THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM IN THE NORTH IS VERY
UNDERWHELMING. AT MOST A FEW LUCKY SPOTS COULD GET 0.01 INCH OF
RAIN. SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST VERY LIGHT RAIN AND NO MIXED
PRECIP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM MILLINOCKET NORTHEAST BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST OF MILLINOCKET. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WITH DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW, BEGINNING DOWNEAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR
IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY
RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING
SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF
CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU
CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS
WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE
PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK
UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG
AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR
NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND
COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S
DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO
OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE
SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND
OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG
LATER THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
607 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS HOUR.
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR
IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY
RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING
SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF
CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU
CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS
WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE
PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK
UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG
AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR
NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND
COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S
DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO
OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE
SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND
OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG
LATER THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE
COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z
WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND.
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE
DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING.
DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z
TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS
GOOD.
I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S
NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT
QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY..
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING
INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE
SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLOUDS AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY BUT MVFR AND
THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
619 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY
12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM
IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR
PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE
INFLUENCE.
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT
SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE.
WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST
RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD WHERE
THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LOWER AT CMX AND WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH
PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN
ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS
THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER
ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE
THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY
DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1044 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
14Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. 925MB STREAMLINES SHOW A
TEXTBOOK COL REGION CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES DRAGGING MILD AIR
INTO THE REGION (12Z 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 11C/13C AT APX/GRB
RESPECTIVELY). MID CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING NORTHWEST/
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD/EASTERN WISCONSIN. STILL
SOME LINGERING FOG HANGING TOUGH AROUND ISQ.
NO BIG ISSUES LOOKING AHEAD TO THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND OVER EASTERN
UPPER LIFT NORTH AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES AND MID LEVEL WINDS
BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL BE A WARM DAY EVEN WITH LIMITED
MIXING...HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W
COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT
RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE
N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE
MID ATLANTIC.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF
FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT.
TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE
LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE
SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL
UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH
TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S...
ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC
FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD...
WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW
SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE
DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW
MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN
LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S.
THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND
DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY
LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN
THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING
RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT
AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS
THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO
-5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE.
LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING
OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS
MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND
DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF
IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER
THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS
FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW
MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
631 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W
COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT
RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE
N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE
MID ATLANTIC.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF
FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT.
TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE
LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE
SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL
UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH
TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S...
ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC
FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD...
WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW
SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE
DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW
MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN
LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S.
THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND
DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY
LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN
THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING
RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT
AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS
THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO
-5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE.
LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING
OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS
MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND
DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF
IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER
THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS
FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW
MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W
COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT
RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE
N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE
MID ATLANTIC.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF
FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT.
TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE
LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE
SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL
UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH
TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S...
ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC
FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD...
WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW
SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE
DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW
MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN
LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S.
THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND
DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY
LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN
THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING
RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT
AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS
THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO
-5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE.
LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT
UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW
MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND
RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO
KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN
OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS
GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED
ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W
AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN
TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE
GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING -
SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY
MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL
BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E
TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW
VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT
NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD
BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD
KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP
TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN
ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER
WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS
THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT
UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...
MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-
30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES
LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR
COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15-
25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
915 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED FOR THE TIME AT KDLH...BUT KCOQ WAS AT 0.5SM. SURFACE
WINDS AT KDLH/KMZH WERE SOUTH AS OF 03Z...AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ELIMINATING THE MARINE INFLUENCE. WE
WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND IF VSBYS
REMAIN NEAR WHAT THEY ARE NOW...WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP DENSE FOG A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LIFTING TOWARD
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE. WE WILL TRIM BACK THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND JUST MENTION IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PULSE UP AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE PERSISTED MUCH OF TODAY WITH ONLY A HINT
OF CLEARING APPARENT AROUND PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY
FOG/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF AN E/NE WIND OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS...WHICH HAVE SEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE EAST
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT AND LIFT THE FOG AROUND THE
DULUTH/SUPERIOR AREA...BUT JUST PUT THE FOCUS OF FOG ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND TO 8 AM FOR THE NORTH
SHORE
THE CONTINUOUS PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
UPPER/SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS
RESPECTIVELY...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP PRIME THE MID
LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDES BROAD
LARGE-SCALE LIFT...IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF
700-500MB CAPE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODE
EVEN FURTHER LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED. THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
THURSDAY...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND
INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER N-CENTRAL MN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
SUMMARY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN...EITHER OF RAIN OR
SNOW...IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...AND DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK AND
TIMING...COULD BRING RAINS TO THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN CLOUDY AND COOL NW FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THERE
COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLAKES AND LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY WATERS AND ELY AREAS. INCREASED WINDS BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD GUST TO 20
MPH OR MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 40
OVER NE MINNESOTA...AND REACH THE LOW 40S IN NW WISCONSIN. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...SO LEANED A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE IN THE LOW 30S.
SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WNW FLOW AND BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING BACK TO
SUNNY SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THOUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES....BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AND THE SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH
DAYS.
TUESDAY...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THE TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO FILTER
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
LOW STRATUS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
CLEARING THAT HAS MOVED QUICKLY NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS STRATUS TO EXPAND BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO
OCCUR...WITH THE FOG MOST DENSE FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO THE NORTH
SHORE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WE LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME BUT MAY ADD LATER.
SOME LLWS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WE HAVE THAT IN
THE KHYR TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 57 36 40 / 40 70 20 0
INL 48 49 34 37 / 60 80 60 10
BRD 53 56 35 42 / 50 70 20 0
HYR 45 58 38 42 / 30 60 70 10
ASX 50 61 42 43 / 10 40 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ037.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD
OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN
AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE
EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED
CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND
950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO
USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE
MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER
MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS
SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM
NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS
WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR
SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS
LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND
THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN
CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4
KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING
A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING
AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN
COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL INDUCE A NE
WIND OFF THE LAKE AND COMBINE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT TO SUPPORT AN
INVERSION WHICH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE
DLH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70
INL 44 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70
BRD 51 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60
HYR 50 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70
ASX 46 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL AS
UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION
OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME
EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS
AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD
COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...
DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT
MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS
NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT
OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON
HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS
THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN
CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY LIFR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
POCKETS OF IFR THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT A BROAD
SWATH FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO EASTERN TEXAS. SSE FLOW WILL BRING THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MN AND WESTERN WI. 12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD IFR/LIFR...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE LATER WITH SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IT MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE
EARLIER SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY. VISIBILITY SHOULD
GENERALLY BY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE SSE WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LITTLE RADIATIONAL COMPONENT.
KMSP...SKC EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SE WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. MIGHT BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15. MAIN ISSUE IS
IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIFR CEILINGS.
12Z MODELS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF IFR THAN THE 00Z/06Z MODELS...
AND CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH INDICATE THIS TREND IS CORRECT.
LOOKING AT 07Z OR SO FOR THIS TO DEVELOP...BUT THAT COULD VARY BY
A COUPLE HOURS. THE INVERSION WILL HELP KEEP IFR THROUGH WED
MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
FOCUSED ON CLOUD COVER FOR THIS UPDATE. CONCERNED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD...FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODELED CEILING...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM
NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...ARE INDICATING HUMID LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY RESULT IN OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER
MOVING INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. THOSE THREE SEEM TO CORRESPOND
PRETTY WELL TO WHERE THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL OVERCAST
LAYER OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO MY CONFIDENCE LIES WITH
THESE THREE MODELS. HOWEVER...THINK THE 4 KM NAM MAY BE TOO FAST
BRINGING THE CLOUD COVER IN...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA. THIS
SCENARIO MAY BE A RECIPE FOR FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS AREA...BUT WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS
THREAT WHEN MAKING UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE 4 KM NAM. THE MODEL IS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN RAPID SATURATION
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE 4 KM NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP
THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN
IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WHICH SATELLITE SHOWS STEADILY MOVING
NORTHWARD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
AT 08Z. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED TO BE BISECTING NE MN FROM
NW WI. SFC WIND WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT OVER NE MN. PATCHY FOG AND CIRRUS WAS OVER NW WI.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL DO ITS TYPICAL BENDING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE COOLER/DENSE AIRMASS WILL BE
FOUND WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LAKE. A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE LAKE AS A RESULT. WILL BE A
WARM DAY WITH STIFF WAA THROUGH THE DAY AND H85 TEMPS REACHING TO
NEAR 10C ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...TO THE TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST/WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND THE ONSET OF SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NE MN FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN THE VCNTY
OF THE WARM FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT CLIPS THIS AREA IN
THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT.
THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS AS A SECONDARY SFC
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOST SFC LOW. AS SUCH...WARM/MOIST AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON THE SW FLOW. WEAK PIECES
OF EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CHECK...EXCEPT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER NEAR A STALLED FRONT. A DRIZZLE SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS
SITUATION AND HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FORM. THIS IS SEEN IN THE QPF FIELDS OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS. THE ECMWF IS FAVORING MORE OF A SHOWER EVENT...BUT IS
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
BEYOND... WITH CHANCES OF NOVEMBER THUNDER IN THE CWA AS WELL AS
WINTRY MIXES AND SNOWFLAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
00Z THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... STACKED
FROM THE SFC TO 700MB MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF MINNESOTA... WITH
AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO COLORADO. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL LOFT IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT... WITH MIXING
RATIOS NEAR 8 G/KG IN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SPC SREF FCST
SOUNDING INDICATES THERE MAY BE MUCAPES NEAR 400 J/KG (WHICH
GENERALLY IS NOT HIGH... BUT IT IS A BIT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR) JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA AFTER 18Z. ALSO THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK
HAS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN IN THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY.
THEREFORE... HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SO THE
EASTERN CWA BASED ON THE GFS`S FCST BOUNDARY LAYERED INSTABILITY...
WHICH ENDED UP BEING A BIT WEST OF SPC`S OUTLOOK... WHICH INCLUDES
MAINLY HINCKLEY UP TO DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE... AND EAST TO
OUR NW WISCONSIN COUNTIES. BY 00Z FRIDAY... THE THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE... BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHLAND BY MID-DAY FRIDAY... AND
WILL HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY... ON THE ORDER OF 10-20
DEGREES. HOWEVER A NEW DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
BEHIND IT... AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE... RAIN ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW... THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO
SMALL TO MEASURE. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S. A CHANGE WILL COME SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM... AND SUNSHINE ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN...
NEARING HIGHS OF 50 AND LOWS NEAR 40.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF 11Z DUE TO LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL
FOG. THESE ANKLE-DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SHOULD HOLD STEADY AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT AFTER 15Z.
TEMPORARY VFR WILL COME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AS STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER... BUT DEVELOPING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 44 59 54 / 0 10 10 20
INL 50 44 56 44 / 0 20 20 40
BRD 63 53 63 48 / 0 10 10 30
HYR 65 51 64 54 / 0 10 10 20
ASX 59 43 63 54 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>143-146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN
SPOTS TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD
WERE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS TONIGHT. WE ALSO ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG EARLIER AS KINL WAS DOWN TO 2.5SM AND FOG WAS
REPORTED AT KD25.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT
WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT
DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD
COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE
HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED
A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING
COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN
PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT
ALONG WITH PTYPE.
THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
0C THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS
WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE. WE STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
IN THE EVENING MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF LAKE ON UP THE NORTH SHORE
LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ144-
145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for
a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus
clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the
area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be
dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile.
It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where
the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest
values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest
surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10
degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the
low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively
high surface dew points for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once
again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location
of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job
with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud
deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area,
into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier
fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck.
This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like
it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR
guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low
level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified
than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there
should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may
not be quite a persistent as today.
Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon
cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in
the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly
signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud
trends become more clear.
The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern
remains with the storm system approaching the region on
Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly
good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly
out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday
evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and
associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring
some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday,
but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday
night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front,
and deep moisture all interact over the region.
Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection
Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red
River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this
activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due
to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of
convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges
across the area during the late evening and overnight hours.
Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season
severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern
attm.
Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a
very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or
early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a
threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early
Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain
going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm.
Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the
Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool
Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in
the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing
another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The
return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with
W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to
migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into
the area for the start of the new work week.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Visibilities should continue to gradually improve in UIN and the
St Louis metro area late this morning and this afternoon. Seeing
erosion of the stratus and fog west of UIN and west-southwest of
the St Louis metro area on the latest satellite images. Will
likely have a least a brief period of VFR conditions late this
afternoon as the shallow, thin stratus clouds scatter out due to
daytime heating, drying and mixing. Stratus and fog should
redevelop across much of the area late this evening and overnight
and continue through much of Wednesday morning. Weak sely surface
winds will continue on the western periphery of the surface
ridge.
Specifics for KSTL: Visibilities will continue to improve late
this morning and this afternoon with the cloud ceiling slowly
rising. It appears that the stratus clouds will likely scatter out
late this afternoon. Status and fog should redevelop late this
evening and overnight with abundant shallow surface/boundary layer
moisture. IFR conditions should improve to VFR conditions again
Wednesday afternoon as the s-sely surface wind strengthens to
around 8 kts.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 54 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30
Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30
Columbia 53 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50
Jefferson City 53 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50
Salem 55 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30
Farmington 54 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
545 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES FILLS
THIS EVENING AND LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
STARTING WITH TONIGHT...WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION WITH SFC DPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
SURGE SOUTH AGAIN AFTER DARK...WITH WIDEPSREAD STRATUS EXPECTED TO
ENCOMPASS OUR REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDES NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW
TO NE NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE
ROCKIES...AND THE DRY SLOT REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCOUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOT
AND AS COOLER...DRIER AIR ADVECT SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT VERY PROMISING...AND
HAVE KEPT OVERALL CHANCES PRIMARILY AROUND 20 PERCENT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY IN PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BY AFTN...THE LLVL
MOISTURE DECREASES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE LOOKING FOR VERY MILD WARM
READINGS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...WHICH ARE ACTUALLY
CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS BEING SAID...WE ARE
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH DIURNAL RISE IN READINGS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING 5 TO 10 DEGREES AT
BEST FROM MORNING LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
NO "MAJOR" CHANGES MADE VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THIS
6-DAY PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE A PREDOMINANTLY DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE LIMITED SHORT TERM RAIN CHANCES COVERED
ABOVE...AND BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIP-MAKER ARRIVES MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...HERE ARE A FEW OF THE MAIN
CHANGES/MESSAGES WORTH HIGHLIGHTING:
1) HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LEGITIMATE SLIGHT CHANCE (20
PERCENT) OF LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN TO SOUTHERN ZONES (MAINLY IN
KS) ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST ONE MODEL (ECMWF) SUGGESTS A PESKY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN COULD EXTENT FARTHER NORTH
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL (INCLUDING TRI CITIES)...BUT GIVEN THIS IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY OPTED TO CONFINE THESE "NEW" POPS TO ONLY
SOUTHERN ZONES THAT APPEAR MORE FAVORED.
2) TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM THE
RECENT/ONGOING WAY-ABOVE-NORMAL "HEAT"...TO A MUCH MORE "NEAR-
NORMAL" REGIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MID-50S AND
LOW-60S IN MOST AREAS ON MOST DAYS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-WARMEST DAY
OF THESE 6 LOOKS TO BE KIND OF A TOSS-UP BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 60S MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY
LAST DAY OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY (WEDNESDAY) IS LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL-COOLEST. VERY PRELIMINARILY...WE ARE ADVERTISING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S RANGE WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
THAT IT COULD (KEY WORD "COULD") TREND 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THIS IF TIMING TRENDS REGARDING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
HOLD.
3) PRECIPITATION-WISE...WANT TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THERE IS
NO MENTION OF THE SEASON`S FIRST SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BEYOND
THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY...IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THAT MAYBE (KEY WORD "MAYBE") A FEW FLAKES COULD TRY
MIXING IN WITH RAIN SOMETIME WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING IF
PRECIP IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS IS SO
VERY FAR FROM A "SURE THING" GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN NOT ONLY
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP WILL STILL BE A
FACTOR BY THAT TIME ANYWAY. TIME WILL TELL...
WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS A BIT CLOSER LOOK AT
DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: AS THE PERIOD STARTS AT SUNSET...VARIOUS
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE-SCALE...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE RAPIDLY
DEPARTING ALL THE WAY TO AN INDIANA-LAKE SUPERIOR AXIS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE SPRINKLE COULD AFFECT A VERY LIMITED AREA FOR A FEW HOURS
RIGHT AWAY IN THE EVENING...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A
FORECAST MENTION AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL SLACKEN AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT/WESTERLY AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO
MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER VALUES...AND AM AIMING LOW-MID 30S.
FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: AS COVERED IN "BULLET POINT 1" ABOVE...OPTED
TO INSERT SOME SMALL RAIN/SPRINKLE CHANCES IN TO WESTERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERN ZONES AT NIGHT. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A
POTENTIALLY NARROW ZONE OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS PROMPTING THE LOW RAIN CHANCES.
MODELS CERTAINLY NOT IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT YET ON THE
LIKELIHOOD/PLACEMENT OF RAIN...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AT LEAST A
FORMAL 20 POP FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SURFACE...DAYTIME BREEZES
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
PASSES THROUGH. UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
THE COOLEST OF THE MONTH SO FAR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...WITH MOST AREAS SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
AIMED INTO THE MID-20S TO LOW 30S RANGE...BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANY
PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME...AS ANY POSSIBLE RAIN SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT BEFORE TEMPS DROP TOO FAR TO CAUSE ISSUES.
SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS
HERE...AS BROAD RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME BREEZES
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS MID-
50S.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES...WITH THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE FROM SATURDAY BEING NOTICEABLY BREEZIER SOUTH
WINDS...WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 MPH LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BUMP UP VERSUS SATURDAY...AND HAVE MOST PLACES
VERY CLOSE TO 60.
MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: DRY STILL...BUT MID-UPPER FLOW STARTS
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH STARTS
DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGHS LOW-MID 60S.
TUESDAY DAYTIME: THE LEADING EDGES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE INT
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY PER CURRENT TIMING...BUT
FORCING LOOKS TO STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO JUSTIFY A DRY
FORECAST...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THAT EXISTED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME COUNTIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THESE VERY LAST 24 HOURS OF THE
7-DAY FEATURE A RETURN TO MODEST RAIN CHANCES AS A LARGE-SCALE
NEUTRAL TO POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO AND/OR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH
FASTER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF ON BRINGING THIS FORCING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY LINGER PRECIP CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. AS SUGGESTED IN "BULLET POINT 3" ABOVE...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SOME LIMITED SNOW POTENTIAL JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE NO MORE THAN A
CHILLY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND A DECENT COLD FRONT AS WELL. IT`S CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT HIGH TEMPS COULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 40S MOST
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
CEILINGS ARE IN QUESTION IN THIS LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PREDICTING WHEN/IF
STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH MAKES IT UP HERE. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE
SHORT-RANGE HRRR MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING THE
BEST...FROM WHAT CAN BE ASCERTAINED. THE HRRR PREDICTS THAT
STRATUS SHOULD NOT HOLD ON FOR ALL NIGHT...BUT PERSISTENCE FROM
RECENT WEATHER WOULD INDICATE LONGER...SO I WENT WITH THE HRRR
FORECAST...WHICH TAKES US AT LEAST A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT...SO
THIS CAN BE REVISITED IN THE NEXT FORECAST. ALSO...WIND SHEAR MAY
BE CLOSE TO AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GUSTY
WIND AT THE SURFACE WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS IN THIS
FORECAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT THUNDERSHOWERS/SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE SO LOW THAT THIS
HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH...WITH WIND SPEEDS PERHAPS EVEN A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
PRE-FRONTAL SITUATION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
A COUPLE NOTES REGARDING THIS REMARKABLE EARLY-NOVEMBER "HEAT":
1) ON THE MORE IMMEDIATE TERM...BOTH OF OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD
SITES (GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS) ARE SITTING ON RECORD WARM
LOW TEMPS FOR TODAY, NOV 4TH. SO FAR BOTH SITES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT
AT 56 DEGREES AND CURRENT RECORDS (BOTH SET IN 2008) ARE 51 AT GRI
AND 53 AT HSI. ALTHOUGH THESE RECORDS TECHNICALLY HAVE TO
"SURVIVE" THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO BECOME OFFICIAL...THERE APPEARS TO
BE A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THEY WILL.
2) ON THE BIGGER STORY SCALE...IT SHOULD COME AS ABSOLUTELY ZERO
SURPRISE THAT OUR SAME TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES ARE
ESTABLISHING THEIR WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER ON RECORD THROUGH AT
LEAST THESE FIRST 4 DAYS...AND VERY POSSIBLY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST 5 DAYS OF NOVEMBER AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT`S ONLY A SMALL
SAMPLE SIZE OF DAYS...HAVING 4+ CONSECUTIVE DAYS RUNNING 15+ DAYS
ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL IS A PRETTY "BIG DEAL" NO MATTER HOW YOU
SLICE IT. THE LAST TIME THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF NOVEMBER
AVERAGED REMOTELY AS WARM AS THIS YEAR WAS 7 YEARS AGO IN
2008...BUT EVEN THAT WAS NOT QUITE TO THIS MAGNITUDE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING
STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND
LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.
INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WITH AREAS OF IFR OR LIFR
CIGS POSSIBLE 06Z-15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD IN 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT
TIMES PRIOR TO 00Z AND AGAIN AFTER 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF
STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE
TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS.
ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND
THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY
TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER
CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM
NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING
STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW
IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB.
SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR
AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY.
S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING
THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT
MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED.
BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS
WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS
LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF
HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY.
EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
INTERESTING TAF PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST YES ESPECIALLY EAST OF KGRI AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION IN KGRI TAF. HAVE NOT WENT AS
PESSIMISSTIC WITH KEAR JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND VSBYS
MAY DROP ON EDGE OF STRATUS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DID NOT MENTION WIND SHEAR...BUT IF WINDS DO
DROP OFF THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND
RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978
IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH.
NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008
HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF
STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE
TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS.
ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND
THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY
TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER
CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM
NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING
STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW
IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB.
SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR
AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY.
S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING
THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT
MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED.
BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS
WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS
LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF
HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY.
EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
TODAY: VFR SKC. S WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 27 KTS AFTER 16Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SKC TO START...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS
TO MOVE IN AFTER 09Z. S WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND WILL CONT GUSTING
TO NEAR 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND
RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978
IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH.
NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008
HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING
STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND
LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.
INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRATUS/FOG CONT TO EXPAND NWD
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE MO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO KOMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT STAY E OF KOFK/KLNK. IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MRNG IF THESE CLOUDS GET INTO KOMA
BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND PUSHES THE CLOUDS EWD.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT AGAIN GUIDANCE IS
UNCERTAIN ON THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN LATER TAF CYCLES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TOMORROW
ALTHO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DECREASES CONFIDENCE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS.
ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND
THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY
TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER
CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM
NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING
STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW
IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB.
SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR
AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY.
S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING
THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT
MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED.
BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS
WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS
LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF
HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY.
EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS.
REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR
STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON
SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT
AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW
TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS...
VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL
20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE
HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE:
LOW
TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S
WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND
RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978
IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH.
NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008
HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING
STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND
LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.
INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN
KANSAS MAY MOVE UP THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD REACH KOMA
BY 12-13Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY SCATTERS OUT. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS 6 OR 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING TO 15 TO 27
KNOTS BY 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TREMENDOUS FCST UNCERTAINTY THRU TUE NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE
FORMATION OF STRATUS. THE NAM...NAM NEST AND THE NSSL WRF
SIMILATED FOG PRODUCT ALL FCST LOW STRATUS TO FORM AND RAPIDLY
EXPAND NW INTO THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. ACTUAL FOG IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING OVER OK AND SE KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HRS. WHAT IS TROUBLING IS THE HRRR IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF.
WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR THE REST OF THIS SHIFT AND THERE MAY NEED
TO BE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FCST AS WE SEE HOW THIS SITUATION
EVOLVES. AS MENTIONED IN THE ST SECTION BELOW...THERE IS HUGE BUST
POTENTIAL ON SKY/TEMPS TODAY IF THIS STRATUS FORMS. IF IT DOES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE OUT THE WINDOW.
UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS...WE WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON
CHANGING THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 240 PM CST...THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN TIED AT BOTH
THE GRAND ISLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
...AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AND ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS IS LOW AND OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY CLOUD FREE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED...THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS EXPECTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS WE THEN WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST JUST FALLING SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD.
BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES...THIS
FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE...DESPITE
GOING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. OF NOTE...IF STRATUS
AND FOG DOES DEVELOP...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD END UP BEING
A BUST...AS THE MET GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE OF
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS LOW...AND FELT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE GOING
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20C.
ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED IN THE
MID TERM PERIODS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA. RESULTING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DEEP
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE HAS SEEMED TO
SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...THIS COULD COME INTO QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
THE LATEST NAM RUNS...AND ONLY THE NAM...SUGGESTS SOME STRATUS
DECK TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AGAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
MODELS ARE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
...AS THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE ECMWF DUMPING AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF QPF ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE BUT STILL SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MORE DEFINED
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...MILD RIDGING AND
EVEN SOME ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S. SATURDAY
MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS.
REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR
STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON
SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT
AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW
TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS...
VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL
20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE
HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE:
LOW
TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S
WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
STRAIGHT AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS
FOR NOVEMBER 3RD ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD (YEAR)
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 (1978)
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 (1978)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
610 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL
HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A
DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER
INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
(BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW
PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND
WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND
VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS
SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL
IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID-
HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND
ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING
TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING
ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 610 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING WED... LASTING
UNTIL LATE WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN START TO DROP TO
IFR BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR
MUCH OF THU... PERHAPS REACHING VFR LATE. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL
HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A
DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER
INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
(BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW
PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND
WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND
VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS
SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL
IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID-
HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND
ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING
TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING
ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY
FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED...
LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR
FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
308 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND
ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING
TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING
ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY
FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED...
LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR
FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM MONDAY...
THE REALLY BIG HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE WARMTH EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK...OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
SLOW CLEARING OUT PROCESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE HARD TO BREAK.
THE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY... WITH ONLY 20-30 POP LINGERING FOR MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE... CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BECOME VARIABLY
CLOUDY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT BUT RANGE INTO THE LOWER 70S SE IF WE CAN
GET ENOUGH BREAKS.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECT A DISTINCT WARMING TREND AS UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NE TO
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH... A WARM UP WILL BEGIN OVER OUR
REGION AS THE SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THURSDAY... AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT SE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE FAVORED. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SW RETURN FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES. EXPECT HIGHS 75-80.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO BEGIN SATURDAY... WITH THE BEST
CHANCES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM - THEREFORE WE WILL SIMPLY BUMP UP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
50 PERCENT (JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY) IN THE FAVORED TIME PER THE
BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS. THIS WOULD TARGET SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN 60+ (SOME OF WHICH MAY CHALLENGE RECORD
HIGH MINS SAT-SUN). HIGHS SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY AFTER
THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION (55-65 NW TO SE)... AFTER A
WEEKEND IN THE 70S SAT... AND 65-75 SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY
FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED...
LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR
FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN
DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10
KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS
HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL
WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT
YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES
KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. FOR SITES KBIS AND KJMS LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF SITES KISN AND KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND BESIDES
A FEW SCATTERED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MOST ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
STAY DRY THROUGH THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...NOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH. CONCENTRATED HIGHER POPS NORTH OF I94 AND ACROSS MY WEST AS
PER LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. THIS AGREES WITH
AREA OBSERVATIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE SOUTH. SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF LOW STRATUS ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ON THE
HIGH SIDE MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD STRATUS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS CONVERTED TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UPDATE
ALL PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LOCAL RADARS SHOW LARGE AREA OF RADAR RETURNS...INITIALLY
REPRESENTING PRECIPITATION ALOFT...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST CONSHORT/HRRR NOT QUITE KEEPING UP
WITH THE TRENDS SO ADJUSTED THE POPS HIGHER QUICKER. AS CLOUDS
MOVING TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN LOW.
LATEST 00Z NAM NEARLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING, REACHING THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENTUALLY A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX IS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. SO FAR
FORECAST LOOKS OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT...WHILE
A LARGE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK H5 WAVES ACROSS THE REGION AS H85 WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG (295K SURFACE) WITH THE BEST SATURATION
OCCURRING IN A BAND MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POPS TONIGHT AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS STILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WEST...AND WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THAT IDEA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE THERMAL
PROFILE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BRING MAINLY
RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN.
IF THERE IS ANY SNOW...DO NOT THINK IT WILL ACCUMULATE MUCH AT
ALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THEN COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY...WITH ITS AXIS MOVING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTH.
AS THE INITIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS...A BROAD
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH H850 KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING COLD ADVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN
BECOME SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOKING AT
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S
WEST TO MID 30S JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.
A WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY...AND 45 TO 55 SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KISN AND POSSIBLY KMOT NOW THROUGH 12Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
NORTH AS KBIS-KJMS. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATING LOW
STRATUS...NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INCLUDING
KMOT...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
AS NEEDED. LOW STRATUS LIFTS TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALL SITES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
928 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA IS IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON
LATEST RAP MODEL AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED AND MAINLY RESTRICTED TO JUST THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL HELP MITIGATE TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT IN THE WAA PATTERN HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTING UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE BACK DOWN A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...BUT IT IS STILL IN THE 40-60 KNOT RANGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO BE PULLED UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS
ARE STILL TRYING TO PULL SOME MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE THEM FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY
FALLING SATURDAY AS THE AREA FALLS INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO
DEGREES C KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MODELS THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS LEFT OVER VORTICITY
FROM THE EXITING TROUGH AXIS LAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
MONDAY MORNING THE EURO WRAPS UP THE LEFT OVER VORTICITY INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND QUICKLY PULLS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EURO SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ CMC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST
OF THE AREA DRY AS IT EJECTS THE LEFT OVER POSITIVE VORTICITY OFF TO
THE EAST. THE GFS THEN BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY EAST
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY. THE EURO IS SLOWER WITH
THIS FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS/CMC SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS TO START. BR MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TOWARD ABNORMALLY HIGH DEW POINTS. CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT CVG AND LUK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT
CEILINGS VFR AT OTHER SITES THAT WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE INITIAL
PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
COOLER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND...
BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY USHER IN A FEW DISTURBANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AGAIN PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING
MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST PARTS OF OUR CWA. ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS WELL RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS FOR
TONIGHT. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
DECK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW TRYING TO SPILL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO EASTERN CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER GREENBRIER COUNTY...HAVE MENTION OF THIS UP THE
EASTERN SLOPES INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AREAS THAT ARE OUT FROM UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WARMED UP QUICKLY
TODAY AND MAY RIVAL YESTERDAYS HIGHS. HOWEVER...UNDER THE
CLOUDS...ITS TAKING A BIT LONGER WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE TOMORROW...AGAIN ACTING TO TEMPER THE WARMING A
BIT...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST...EXCEPT 60S AT AND
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE ON FRIDAY. FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH/EAST
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER...AND
CREATING ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
FRONT WILL FINALLY SINK FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND. DO HAVE A
FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL TO SUBTROPICAL FLOW THAT MAY DRIVE DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD INCREASE POPS OVER OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN INCREASED POPS FOR MID NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME AS A COLORADO LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SHIPPING A FRONT OVER THE
REGION. THE EURO HANDLES THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY SLOWING
THE SPEED DOWN AND SENDING IT STRAIGHT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW PATCHES OF CLOUDS FROM 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NAM AND RAP MODELS OVERNIGHT COULD
PREVENT OR DELAY FOG FORMATION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES EXCEPT
FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT STARTING
AROUND 07Z. IN ADDITION...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW STRATO CU
FORMATION OVERNIGHT AT BKW UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW. CODED MVFR
CEILINGS AT BKW STARTING AT 06Z. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
12-13Z...WHILE LOW STRATO CU AT BKW COULD LAST LONGER...PERHAPS
THROUGH 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN BKW MAY OR MAY NOT
HAPPEN TONIGHT. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG IN EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE RAIN/STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
COOLER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND...
BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY USHER IN A FEW DISTURBANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
DECK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW TRYING TO SPILL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO EASTERN CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER GREENBRIER COUNTY...HAVE MENTION OF THIS UP THE
EASTERN SLOPES INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AREAS THAT ARE OUT FROM UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WARMED UP QUICKLY
TODAY AND MAY RIVAL YESTERDAYS HIGHS. HOWEVER...UNDER THE
CLOUDS...ITS TAKING A BIT LONGER WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE TOMORROW...AGAIN ACTING TO TEMPER THE WARMING A
BIT...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST...EXCEPT 60S AT AND
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE ON FRIDAY. FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH/EAST
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER...AND
CREATING ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
FRONT WILL FINALLY SINK FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND. DO HAVE A
FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL TO SUBTROPICAL FLOW THAT MAY DRIVE DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD INCREASE POPS OVER OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN INCREASED POPS FOR MID NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME AS A COLORADO LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SHIPPING A FRONT OVER THE
REGION. THE EURO HANDLES THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY SLOWING
THE SPEED DOWN AND SENDING IT STRAIGHT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW PATCHES OF CLOUDS FROM 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NAM AND RAP MODELS OVERNIGHT COULD
PREVENT OR DELAY FOG FORMATION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES EXCEPT
FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT STARTING
AROUND 07Z. IN ADDITION...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW STRATO CU
FORMATION OVERNIGHT AT BKW UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW. CODED MVFR
CEILINGS AT BKW STARTING AT 06Z. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
12-13Z...WHILE LOW STRATO CU AT BKW COULD LAST LONGER...PERHAPS
THROUGH 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN BKW MAY OR MAY NOT
HAPPEN TONIGHT. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG IN EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE RAIN/STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
618 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
0500/0524 TAFS...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OKC/OUN MAINLY AFTER 12Z.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS WINDS VEER. BY 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE
04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE
IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD
OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE
CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAHALE
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/ESCARPMENT/I-35
CORRIDOR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...
.UPDATE...SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST PERTAINING
TO OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS AND SEVERE THREATS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL PLACEMENT WERE TWEAKED PER LATEST TIME
ENSEMBLES OF HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCE PERCENTAGES WERE BOOSTED
ANOTHER 10% FOR THE 4AM-10AM RANGE IN THE MOSTLY LIKELY AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO THE THE EAST HILL COUNTRY TO
THE ESCARPMENT AND NEAR I-35. THIS COULD INCLUDE BOTH THE SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN METRO AREAS.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A LOW-END
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40 TO 60
MPH WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL PLUME OF MID-LVL BAND ISENTROPIC INDUCED SHOWERS IS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE
ESCARPMENT REGION. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAWN WITH CURRENT PROGGED PWATS
NEAR 1.7" INCREASING TOWARDS 2.1" BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
KCRP SOUNDING SAMPLED 2.11" WHICH WAS ABOVE THEIR MAXIMUM MOVING
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY 0.17" BELOW THEIR ALL-
TIME DAILY MAXIMUM. OF NOTE...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS AND
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPS DATA SUGGEST NEAR 200 M2/S2 0-1KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR DAWN
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO UTILIZE THIS
ORGANIZATIONAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. A H7-H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPULSE IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS/NAM AND RAP TO BE
TRANSITING THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT SAME TIME
OF THE PWAT INCREASE BY 6AM. THIS LIFT INDUCING IMPULSE WITH NEAR
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AND CONTINUED 150-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH IN
PRESENCE OF 40-45KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS IN THIS HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT
COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS SOME STRONG WINDS OF
40-60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SPC SSEO
IS INDICATIVE OF AN UPTICK IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS THROUGH 6AM TIME-
FRAME THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF POTENTIAL EVOLUTION.
OF NOTE HAS BEEN THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE HRRR THAT AS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE. THE RAP (WHICH DID WELL
LOCATION WISE OF HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT IN THE 10/30 EVENT)
DOES NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE HRRR BUT IS QUITE
SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR REGION.
THE HILL COUNTRY TO ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR IS THE PRIMARY
ZONE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
AVIATION...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY DURING THIS PERIOD. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VIS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHEN RAIN STARTS AND STOPS. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
BEGIN AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. AT AUS AND
SAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A
SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A
NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM
CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO
THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST
AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW.
THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT
THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO
BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 80 80 80 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 70 80 80 30 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 80 70 80 30 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 70 70 80 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL TO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENING AND
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECOUPLE. CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT LINED UP FROM BRO TO FWD. 850 MB
DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED TO 15C ACROSS S TX. 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON SE TX AND THIS FEATURE
LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE MSTR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TRIMMED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY BUT LEFT THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS IT WAS. FEEL THE
SFC-850 WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG THREAT SO TONED DOWN THE FOG
WORDING A BIT. SFC DEW PTS NEAR 70 SO BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A BIT AS
WELL. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF
DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND SREF...SUGGEST
THE PROBLEM WILL BE MORE LOW CEILINGS THAN FOG. HOWEVER...THE SREF
FORECAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z NEAR KCXO AND KSGR...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KCXO.
FELT THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KLBX. GUIDANCE AND THE
MODELS SUGGESTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCXO BEFORE
THE CEILINGS LIFTED TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 17Z -- THIS MAY BE A
BIT TOO SPECIFIC AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO BETTER PINPOINT
CONDITIONS AT KCXO.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES ARE LESS
ELSEWHERE.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND HUMID EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NE AREAS. WILL
SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH M CLOUDY SKIES AND
DW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG
WHERE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT...BUT NOT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
WE SAW LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS
AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTS
NE ACROSS N TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. EXPECT
SCT SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING TOMORROW ACROSS W/NW AREAS
OF SE TX...THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST
OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK
OF SVR TSTMS GENERALLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WITH THE RAIN CHC ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHCS AGAIN INCREASING. 33/44
MARINE...
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL PARTLY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AND SEAS OVER WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 81 65 74 61 / 10 50 80 40 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 70 79 65 / 10 30 50 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 78 73 78 69 / 10 10 40 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF
DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND SREF...SUGGEST
THE PROBLEM WILL BE MORE LOW CEILINGS THAN FOG. HOWEVER...THE SREF
FORECAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z NEAR KCXO AND KSGR...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KCXO.
FELT THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KLBX. GUIDANCE AND THE
MODELS SUGGESTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCXO BEFORE
THE CEILINGS LIFTED TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 17Z -- THIS MAY BE A
BIT TOO SPECIFIC AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO BETTER PINPOINT
CONDITIONS AT KCXO.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES ARE LESS
ELSEWHERE.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND HUMID EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NE AREAS. WILL
SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH M CLOUDY SKIES AND
DW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG
WHERE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT...BUT NOT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
WE SAW LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS
AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTS
NE ACROSS N TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. EXPECT
SCT SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING TOMORROW ACROSS W/NW AREAS
OF SE TX...THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST
OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK
OF SVR TSTMS GENERALLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WITH THE RAIN CHC ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHCS AGAIN INCREASING. 33/44
MARINE...
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL PARTLY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AND SEAS OVER WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 81 65 74 61 / 20 50 80 40 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 81 70 79 65 / 10 30 50 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 73 78 69 / 10 10 40 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH WITH FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL OVER SW TAF SITES. T/TD SPREAD HAS NARROWED AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...STILL FEEL THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/
UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE AND WHERE THE DENSEST FOG DEVELOPS...
WITH HRRR AND SREF VISIBILITY PROGS GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTING AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS HOWEVER FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR E TEXAS. CLEARING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE SO WITH CLEAR
SKIES THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG. POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE.
OVERALL SHOULD HAVE QUIET CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BEGIN WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PLAIN THUR NIGHT WITH THE
ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER.
PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL AGAIN APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO AGAIN MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS BUT STILL
KEEPING WATCH SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING.
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND DECREASE
TEMPS FOR THE AREA. GFS IS STILL QUICK TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT. LEARY TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AS FAST AS THE GFS SO
WILL GRADUALLY DROP POPS OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THE
ECMWF MAY BE TOO OVERDONE WITH RAIN CHANCES.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW STILL ON TRACK TO DECREASE EVEN MORE AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE RESUMING AND
THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (WEDS
ONWARD). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES...TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT...STALLING AOA THE UPPER
TX COAST ON FRI. SCEC FLAGS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THUR. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATING THAT A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT (LATE SAT/EARLY
SUN) COULD PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 78 61 77 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 78 62 78 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 69 74 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
746 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE
SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER
WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF
PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT
CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUED TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA
THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS
SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE
SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH
MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT
ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING
THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT
TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A
SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE
PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED MOIST FLOW ATOP A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
MANY TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
OOZ OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALTERNATING IN AND AROUND
KROA/KBCB. CEILINGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR CATEGORY AT
KLWB/KBLF...WHICH SAW A GREATER AMOUNT OF CLEARING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR FALL BELOW MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES...WITH A FEW SOUTHEAST GUSTS AT KLWB/KBLF POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING BR FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLWB WHICH IS A BIT FURTHER OUT OF THE WEDGE AT THIS
HOUR. LEFT FG IN THE TAF AT KBLF...AS THEY POSE THE BEST THREAT TO
DROP INTO/BELOW IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL...CLEARING EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL
SITES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ULTIMATELY WINNING THE BATTLE BY NOON.
CLOUDCOVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHER CIGS AND MORE
NUMEROUS BREAKS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM AND CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THE SITES THAT MAY DROP A FEW
CATEGORIES LOWER. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM/TB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
859 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST TRENDING FAIRLY WELL BUT ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR SLOWER
SPREAD OF CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK THAN LAST NIGHT PRODUCING
MORE STIRRING THAT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW-VIS FOG. THIS GIVES
CREDENCE TO SREF PROBABILITIES THAT INDICATE A LOWER THREAT OF
FOG OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH NO MORE THAN A 50/50 CHANCE OF VSBYS
UNDER 3 MILES IN THE IL BORDER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
CURRENT SITUATION TRENDING WELL WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF
CIGS UNDER 3K FT...WHICH HAVE MVFR CIGS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY 06Z AND REACHING THE FAR EAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z. THESE LOW CIGS HOLD IN UNTIL MID-MORNING THEN LIFT.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT SKETCHY AT THE MOMENT WITH HRRR
SHOWING VSBYS STAYING AROUND 6 MILES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BUT NAM RE-DEVELOPS DENSE FOG AFTER 06Z AND THE 21Z SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG RE-DEVELOPING/SPREADING
BACK SWD AFTER 06Z...ALBEIT WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES TOWARD
OPEN WATER. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...AND MONITOR FOR
EXPECTED RE-DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD SW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
EAST COAST HIGH WILL KEEP THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT
MORE STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WHILE SOME OF
THE STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST HAS DIURNALLY DISSIPATED
EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
IN FACT KEEPING A CLOSE EYE VIA VSBL IMAGERY ON NW EXPANSION OF
LARGE STRATUS/FOG AREA OVER LAKE MI. ALSO SEEING MORE NARROW BAND
ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHICH HAS NUDGED ONSHORE. OVER MUCH OF SRN WI
THE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION EVOLVING BUT NOT COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THERE ARE SOME DECENT WINDS OFF THE DECK AND
THIS SHOULD NEGATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS MAY RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG ON ADJACENT LAND AREAS THERE
HOWEVER TRAJ SUGGESTS ANY OF THIS FOG WOULD NOT MAKE A SIGGY INLAND
PUSH. OVERALL MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT HANGING
TO OUR WEST. 925 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TEMPS DEEP INTO THE 60S. WILL HAVE TO AGAIN CONTEND WITH SOME
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT GETTING CLOSER...BUT ANY SHRA CHANCES
CONFINED TO WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA
CONCEIVABLY COULD REACH 70 AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN
SEE. OVERALL UPTICK IN 700 MILLIBAR RH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE SOMEWHAT WARMER GFS MOS BUT IF WINDOW BETWEEN ANY
MORNING STRATUS AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS NARROWS THEN THE COOLER
NAM MOS TEMPS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
CAUSE COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...THIS IS WELL OVER 95TH
PERCENTILE. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS
CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TRAILING OFF AFTER 06Z AS STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST.
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM NEAR THE SFC UP TO 600H
SWEEPS THRU SRN WI AS LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-6.5 DEGREES WHILE ELEVATED CAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 500 J/KG JUST PRIOR TO STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. HENCE WL BEEF UP THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE AND ISOLD
OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DYNAMIC TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE T THREAT TO SCT.
MUCH COLDER AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. 925H
TEMPS TUMBLE 10C AND EXPECT FRI MAX T TO BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER.
WITH SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC...DRIER SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO LOW
LEVELS AND CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS FOR AT LEAST PART OF FRI. BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS WRN GTLAKES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF SLIDES TO THE EAST.
EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...HIGH TRENDING TO MEDIUM.
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS BROADSCALE
UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER UPPER MIDWEST TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GTLAKES ON MON.
AT THIS TIME...COLUMN MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
PINCHED OFF DUE TO LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST AND
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME ADDED LIFT FROM INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE TIME. COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY LOW
POPS FOR NOW.
WARMER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO
RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AS UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF OVER WRN CONUS TO
WEAKEN SOME AS IT GETS NUDGED NORTHEAST BY EASTERN PACIFIC TROF
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CONUS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF WL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIKELY BRING BETTER
THREAT FOR SHRA TO SRN WI TUE NIGHT INTO WED NGT.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEASONAL NORMAL BY THE 12TH. GFS 5-DAY
500H PATTERN INDICATING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS SPREADING INTO
UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z/12 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL HAS SHOWN SOME
DIURNAL DISSIPATION BUT WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT
THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR MORE IFR STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE
WITH SOME IFR VSBYS AS WELL. WINDS OFF THE DECK SUGGEST WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT SOME PATCHY LWR VSBYS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING BACK INTO SRN WI. AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
DAYS AS BEING THE BEST WINDOW FOR RAINFALL.
MARINE...COOLER LAKE TEMPS INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN FOG OVER A PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WATCHING
TRENDS ON VSBL IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS/FOG AREA TRENDING NW AND
EXPANDING FROM MID LAKE WITH A MORE NARROW BAND NEAR THE SHORE. FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO HAVE
HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHER CONFIDENT SCA SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BETTER DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS
RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT
BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED.
SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT
IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE
THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND
COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS
FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB
PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY
COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS
DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD
BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A
VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS
SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE
STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH
DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY
DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX
WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW
FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS
COULD FALL TO NEAR MINIMUMS IN SOME PLACES. BEST PROBABILITY FOR
TIMING WOULD FALL INTO THE 09Z-15Z RANGE. LOW CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS
ARE HANGING TOUGH AT THIS HOUR...SO THE LOW CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK
FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69
RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS
SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER
SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE
WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR
SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE
UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND
GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND
RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP
OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS...
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS
SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO
DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW
STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER
DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO
REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
(ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT
FEELS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A
SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FG/ST
TNGT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FCST HAS NOT CLARIFIED MUCH SINCE THE
00Z TAF ISSUANCE. TEMPS IN THE N FELL SWIFTLY AFTER SUNSET...
RESULTING IN QUICK FOG FORMATION. THAT SEEMED TO INICATE A FOGGY
NIGHT AT RHI. BUT...FOG HAS ACTUALLY BECOME LESS PREVELANT IN THE
PAST COUPLE HRS. PLUS...STLT NOW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH-
MIDDLE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATER IN THE NGT. SO THE FOG POTENTIAL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIG CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS. FOG WL PROBABLY BE MORE OF A FACTOR
ACRS THE N INCLUDING THE RHI TAF SITE. BUT ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS
WL CONT TO FLUCTUATE...AND DO NOT FORESEE CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING AND
REMAINING LOW ALL NGT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense
fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of
moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this
afternoon.
Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought
the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several
mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient
to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into
the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of
moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between
3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming
northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of
patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be
nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings.
Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri
Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our
area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of
showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties
this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead
wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place
with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs
will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a
slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial
shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look
for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help
push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s
with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight
tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread
showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening
and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday
morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA
tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong
winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over
central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this
evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning
with breeze wnw winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash
river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid
60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on
Friday from tonights lows.
A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat
morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a
period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the
lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river
valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and
southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday
and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New
England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure
developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday
through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast
models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as
southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river
valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf
southeast of central IL Mon/Tue.
More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep
upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure
intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river
valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening
per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east
across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night)
and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with
this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF
models due to highly amplied upper level pattern. Stuck close to
model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest pops
east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night and
Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms due
to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main concerns remain on fog potential and the progression and
coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. The latest RAP
soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet by
08z/2am at all TAF sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent
the development of dense fog tonight. MVFR fog is already
beginning to form across the area, so have included 3-4SM MVFR
fog from 08z to 16z. HRRR continues to keep dense fog mainly
southeast of I-70, and away from any terminal sites tonight.
Steady southerly winds and increasing cloud cover should be enough
to prevent the widespread low vsbys noted the past few nights.
Once fog lifts by 16z, south winds will increase to between 13
and 16kt by late morning. VFR clouds are expected for the bulk of
the day, with any showers holding off until later in the day for PIA
and SPI. Prevailing rain and VCTS were included at all TAF sites
for mid to late evening as marginal instability, a low level jet,
and ample moisture arrive in our forecast area ahead of the cold
front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Clearing has developed in most of central and southeast Illinois
this evening, which should facilitate the start of fog formation,
but most likely not dense fog. That will be mainly due to the fact
that mid-level clouds are still poised to move north into our
area from southern IL and SE Missouri. RAP forecast soundings
show a moist layer around 4k feet through the night, so believe
that clouds will still eventually cover much of the area by
sunrise. Have updated sky conditions to reduce evening clouds,
then increase after midnight.
HRRR vis forecast shows dense fog mainly SE of I-70 later tonight.
MVN has already dipped to 1/4SM in fog, which matches the latest
HRRR output well. Have added areas of fog to the SE counties after
midnight, and lingered it to 14z. Will watch that area closely for
possible need for a dense fog advisory.
Temps and dewpoints still appear on track, with lows in the mid to
upper 50s. Updated forecast info will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be potential fog development
tonight. Widespread dense fog from early this morning dissipated by
midday, followed by partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Exact
degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question:
however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the
lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. In addition,
widespread cloud cover streaming northward from Arkansas/western
Tennessee should result in mostly cloudy skies tonight. Given the
cloud cover and slightly stronger winds due to a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of an approaching front, do not think fog will become
as widespread or dense as it has lately. As a result, will only
mention patchy fog in the forecast for tonight with low temperatures
dropping into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper
ridge over MS valley. Soundings continue to show significant
moisture below strong inversion, but with more gradient and
cloudiness, fog will be less than previous nights (as mentioned
previously).
Moisture flow will continue ahead of deepening frontal system
progged to move out of rockies. This will bring pcpn into area ahead
of the front. Instability will be limited, but strength of upper
support and wind flow will make some gusty winds possible with
the passage of some of the stronger showers/storms. Models
similar in movement of front on Thursday night, with decreasing
clouds by Friday after front moved through.
Cooler high pressure in control through weekend. Next chance of pcpn
with the next shortwave moving through Midwest midweek. Models
differ though on timing of this front, so chance pops in the
forecast for Tues night to Wed will need to be refined later.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main concerns remain on fog potential and the progression and
coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. The latest RAP
soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet by
08z/2am at all TAF sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent
the development of dense fog tonight. MVFR fog is already
beginning to form across the area, so have included 3-4SM MVFR
fog from 08z to 16z. HRRR continues to keep dense fog mainly
southeast of I-70, and away from any terminal sites tonight.
Steady southerly winds and increasing cloud cover should be enough
to prevent the widespread low vsbys noted the past few nights.
Once fog lifts by 16z, south winds will increase to between 13
and 16kt by late morning. VFR clouds are expected for the bulk of
the day, with any showers holding off until later in the day for PIA
and SPI. Prevailing rain and VCTS were included at all TAF sites
for mid to late evening as marginal instability, a low level jet,
and ample moisture arrive in our forecast area ahead of the cold
front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1218 AM UPDATE...CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AS
OF MIDNIGHT WITH SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN A FEW SPOTS
FROM THE ALLAGASH TO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EVEN A BIT OF VERY
LIGHT SLEET MIXED IN AT WFO CARIBOU. MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION...BUT THAT LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS AND THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS. DID NEED TO LOWER TEMPS A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR
IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY
RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING
SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF
CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU
CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS
WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE
PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK
UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG
AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR
NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND
COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S
DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO
OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE
SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND
OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG
LATER THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...CB/FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FOCUS ON WINDS FOR
FRI AND THEN LK EFFECT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT. STRONG NW WINDS
GUSTING AT LEAST TO NEAR ADVY CRITERIA WL IMPACT EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP TO THE SW OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING LO PRES IN SE CANADA.
THESE STRONG NW WINDS WL ADVECT AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LK EFFECT
PCPN INTO THE AREA ON FRI. BUT THE BEST CHC FOR THIS PCPN WL BE LATE
FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE/DEEP MSTR ARRIVE OVER THE
AREA. AN INCOMING RDG AXIS WL END THE LK EFFECT PCPN QUICKLY LATE
SAT AND BRING DRY AND MILDER WX FOR SUN INTO TUE.
FRI...LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY ON FRI MRNG WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING THIS LO DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 960-965MB. ATTENDANT COLD
FNT WL BE THRU NEWBERRY BY 12Z FRI. THEN UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY
THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND HI PRES BLDG FM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS MAINLY
DURING THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD UNDER THE STRONG CAA PATTERN BEHIND THE
FNT WL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AT LEAST CLOSE TO ADVY CRITERIA AT EXPOSED
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP. THE GRADIENT/WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH A BIT
DURING THE AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF SHARPER PRES RISES TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FROPA WL END ANY LINGERING WDSPRD RA OVER THE E SOON
AFTER 12Z... SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME LK EFFECT
TYPE PCPN WL DVLP DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN THE CYC WNW FLOW AS H85
TEMPS DROP TO ARND -5C BY 00Z SAT. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW
AN INVERTED V TYPE T/TD PROFILE DVLPG FM THE SFC TO NEAR H85...WITH
THIS LLVL DRYING LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR MAY LOWER THE WBLB TEMP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SN TO MIX WITH THE RA LATER IN THE DAY OVER
THE HIER TERRAIN.
FRI NGT/SAT...BULK OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME DEEPER MSTR WL ARRIVE
LATE FRI NGT AND IMPACT THE AREA BEFORE EXITING TO THE E DURING SAT
AFTN...WHEN SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW WL
ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS
AS LO AS -7 TO -8C JUSTIFY SOME LIKELY POPS IN AREAS FAVORED BY THE
FCST WNW FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE MANY OF THE
MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR IS FCST
TO EXTEND INTO THE DGZ AT LEAST FOR A TIME...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN AREAS INTO SAT MRNG WHERE AND
WHEN SFC TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO 32. BUT WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
32 AT MOST PLACES...ANY SN ACCUM SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.
SAT NGT/SUN...ANY LINGERING LK EFFECT PCPN/CLDS ON SAT EVNG SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS UNDER LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AND PASSES TO THE E...WITH H925 WSHFT TO THE SW
OVERNGT UNDER FCST 12HR HGT RISES UP TO 150M. EXPECTED CLRG SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVNG...BUT INCRSG WSW WIND
OVERNGT UNDER SHARPER GRADIENT TO THE N OF HI CENTER MOVING INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY WL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TEMP DROP. A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO ARND 5C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ON
SUN RISING TO AT LEAST NEAR 50...WARMEST OVER THE W.
EXTENDED...ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES MIGRATING THRU THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN OFF THE E COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WL BRING
DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WITH H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM 5C FOR
MON AND TUE. THE NEXT CHC FOR RA WL ARRIVE NEXT WED AS SHRTWV/SFC LO
PRES MOVE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR LKS PER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MSLP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
SSWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THU
AFTERNOON AT KSAW WITH A BIT OF MIXING OCCURING TO HELP RAISE THE
CLOUD HEIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KIWD AND KCMX
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT
AS A S WIND UP TO 25-30KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA
AND A COLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES
CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A
STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. BECAUSE THE LO TO THE N WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AND ADVECT COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...
STABILITY WILL DECREASE AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SSW WINDS
UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO
THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ241>245-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY
12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM
IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR
PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE
INFLUENCE.
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT
SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE.
WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST
RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
SSWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THU
AFTERNOON AT KSAW WITH A BIT OF MIXING OCCURING TO HELP RAISE THE
CLOUD HEIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KIWD AND KCMX
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH
PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN
ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS
THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER
ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE
THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY
DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE
COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z
WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND.
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE
DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING.
DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z
TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS
GOOD.
I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S
NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT
QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY..
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING
INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE
SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY BUT MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE
3000 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR AND IFR AS RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1137 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE VISIBILITY CONTINUED TO BE AROUND A MILE AT KDLH AND KCOQ. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WE WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED FOR THE TIME AT KDLH...BUT KCOQ WAS AT 0.5SM. SURFACE
WINDS AT KDLH/KMZH WERE SOUTH AS OF 03Z...AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ELIMINATING THE MARINE INFLUENCE. WE
WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND IF VSBYS
REMAIN NEAR WHAT THEY ARE NOW...WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP DENSE FOG A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LIFTING TOWARD
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE. WE WILL TRIM BACK THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TONIGHT AND JUST MENTION IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PULSE UP AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE PERSISTED MUCH OF TODAY WITH ONLY A HINT
OF CLEARING APPARENT AROUND PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY
FOG/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF AN E/NE WIND OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS...WHICH HAVE SEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE EAST
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT AND LIFT THE FOG AROUND THE
DULUTH/SUPERIOR AREA...BUT JUST PUT THE FOCUS OF FOG ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND TO 8 AM FOR THE NORTH
SHORE
THE CONTINUOUS PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
UPPER/SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS
RESPECTIVELY...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP PRIME THE MID
LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDES BROAD
LARGE-SCALE LIFT...IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF
700-500MB CAPE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODE
EVEN FURTHER LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED. THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
THURSDAY...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND
INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER N-CENTRAL MN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
SUMMARY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN...EITHER OF RAIN OR
SNOW...IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...AND DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK AND
TIMING...COULD BRING RAINS TO THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN CLOUDY AND COOL NW FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THERE
COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLAKES AND LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY WATERS AND ELY AREAS. INCREASED WINDS BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD GUST TO 20
MPH OR MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 40
OVER NE MINNESOTA...AND REACH THE LOW 40S IN NW WISCONSIN. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...SO LEANED A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE IN THE LOW 30S.
SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WNW FLOW AND BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING BACK TO
SUNNY SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THOUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES....BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AND THE SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH
DAYS.
TUESDAY...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THE TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO FILTER
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
STRATUS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS FROM
300-1500FT FOR MOST AREAS. A POCKET OF VFR CEILINGS WAS OCCURRING
IN A PORTION OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS FAR NORTH AS KBRD.
HOWEVER...WE THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND CEILINGS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR...ALTHOUGH THE
LOWEST VSBYS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LAKE SUPERIOR.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 57 36 40 / 40 70 20 0
INL 48 49 34 37 / 60 80 60 10
BRD 53 56 35 42 / 50 70 20 0
HYR 45 58 38 42 / 30 60 70 10
ASX 50 61 42 43 / 10 40 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
929 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN WY CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING...WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED IN OUR WEST FROM
HARLOWTON AND ROUNDUP TO COLUMBUS AND BILLINGS. AS PCPN TAPER OFF
TONIGHT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
WIND CERTAINLY LIMITS OUR FOG POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT PATCHY VALLEY FOG...SUCH
AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING. HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF FOG FROM
6-15Z...AND HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER QUICKER ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST TO AROUND 30 IN OUR EAST...WITH AREAS NEAR
THE DAKOTAS BORDER MODERATED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROF WAS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROF AXIS IS
CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLIDE EAST OVER OUR REGION
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE
EASTERN ZONES.
FOR THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A TEMPORARY BREAK WITH PERIOD OF
DRIER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND CYCLONIC. AS SUCH...PROGS PICK UP ON
CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE DAY
AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. 850MB TEMP PROGS DO GO BELOW FREEZING SO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW. SOME PROGS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HEFTY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH IT IS NOT A CONSENSUS. SO WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT
OUR MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS WILL SEE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WE FEEL THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE AT THIS POINT
OF IT PRODUCING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE PROGS AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FOR CLUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE MAY NEED
ADVISORIES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
FOOTHILLS.
SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST
AND 500MB RIDGING TAKES OVER. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY...WITH BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW PROGGED FOR SUNDAY
AS TROF MOVES ON TO WEST COAST. OUR PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WINDS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE GAP FLOW
AREAS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND NYE. I TWEAKED WINDS UP WITH MINOR
PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY. A LARGE OPEN
TROF OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE SOME MINOR WAVES EJECT THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY LEADING INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
PROGS WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEMS
PROGRESSION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH
RELATIVELY FAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN
OR POSSIBLY CUT OFF. SO THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY HAS LOW
CONFIDENCE AND MAINLY BLENDED PARAMETERS FOR NOW. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KSHR AND KMLS
WHERE LOW MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TAKING HOLD AFTER 12Z. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG NEAR KMLS
FROM 11-15Z. LOW RANGE VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLVM STRATUS WILL
PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/043 028/042 026/051 031/054 032/050 031/039 024/042
00/B 42/J 00/B 00/U 01/B 43/W 31/B
LVM 021/036 022/036 022/044 026/047 029/045 026/036 022/037
12/W 53/J 00/N 00/N 13/W 43/J 31/N
HDN 026/045 028/044 023/054 027/055 029/053 031/041 024/043
10/B 32/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 53/W 32/J
MLS 031/047 030/045 026/054 029/056 031/053 032/042 025/042
20/B 22/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 33/W 32/J
4BQ 030/047 027/044 025/056 027/057 030/056 031/045 025/043
31/B 23/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
BHK 030/043 025/041 022/052 026/056 029/053 028/041 023/040
31/E 23/W 00/U 00/U 01/U 23/W 43/J
SHR 025/044 026/041 019/052 026/054 027/053 029/041 021/042
20/B 33/W 10/U 00/U 01/B 44/W 32/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
VIS HAVE RECOVERED OVER ALL BUT KTVF...WITH SOME SITES EVEN GOING
ABOVE 6SM. CIGS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW IN THE 200 TO 500 FT RANGE FOR
THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE SOME DIPS DOWN TO THE 3-5SM VIS
RANGE FOR THOSE SITES WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY...BUT OVERALL THINK
THAT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE RAIN COMES IN FROM SD. RAIN BAND WILL MOVE
INTO KFAR AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SOME SNOW
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE RED RIVER BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. VIS SHOULD BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE BUT SOME DIPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE IFR
CATEGORY OR LIFR. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY
THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-
006-008-009-013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1242 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA IS IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON
LATEST RAP MODEL AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED AND MAINLY RESTRICTED TO JUST THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL HELP MITIGATE TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT IN THE WAA PATTERN HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTING UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE BACK DOWN A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...BUT IT IS STILL IN THE 40-60 KNOT RANGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO BE PULLED UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS
ARE STILL TRYING TO PULL SOME MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE THEM FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA USHERING
IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY
FALLING SATURDAY AS THE AREA FALLS INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO
DEGREES C KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MODELS THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS LEFT OVER VORTICITY
FROM THE EXITING TROUGH AXIS LAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
MONDAY MORNING THE EURO WRAPS UP THE LEFT OVER VORTICITY INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND QUICKLY PULLS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EURO SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ CMC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST
OF THE AREA DRY AS IT EJECTS THE LEFT OVER POSITIVE VORTICITY OFF TO
THE EAST. THE GFS THEN BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY EAST
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY. THE EURO IS SLOWER WITH
THIS FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS/CMC SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z PARTICULARLY IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO
HIGH ON THIS SO JUST PUT THAT AS TEMPO CONDITIONS. BEYOND THIS IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT AND MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
0506/0606 TAFS...A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 9-10Z WITH
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS...BUT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
0500/0524 TAFS...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OKC/OUN MAINLY AFTER 12Z.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS WINDS VEER. BY 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE
04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE
IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD
OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE
CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAHALE
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 73 47 64 / 40 50 10 0
HOBART OK 60 73 44 64 / 50 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 76 46 69 / 50 60 10 0
GAGE OK 54 71 37 64 / 40 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 73 43 64 / 30 50 10 0
DURANT OK 63 71 52 70 / 50 90 50 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 30 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE NAM12 925 MB WIND
FORECAST WILL HELP MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
INLAND AVIATION SITES TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARD CEILINGS OVER FOG...ALTHOUGH THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT NEAR THE KSGR...KCXO...AND KIAH SITES
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z. MORE CONFIDENT WITH AN MVFR
CEILING FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 19Z. LESS
CONFIDENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLS BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME
PERIOD AT THIS SITE WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS BEST AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO AFTER
18Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL TO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENING AND
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECOUPLE. CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT LINED UP FROM BRO TO FWD. 850 MB
DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED TO 15C ACROSS S TX. 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON SE TX AND THIS FEATURE
LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE MSTR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TRIMMED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY BUT LEFT THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS IT WAS. FEEL THE
SFC-850 WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG THREAT SO TONED DOWN THE FOG
WORDING A BIT. SFC DEW PTS NEAR 70 SO BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A BIT AS
WELL. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF
DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND SREF...SUGGEST
THE PROBLEM WILL BE MORE LOW CEILINGS THAN FOG. HOWEVER...THE SREF
FORECAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z NEAR KCXO AND KSGR...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KCXO.
FELT THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KLBX. GUIDANCE AND THE
MODELS SUGGESTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCXO BEFORE
THE CEILINGS LIFTED TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 17Z -- THIS MAY BE A
BIT TOO SPECIFIC AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO BETTER PINPOINT
CONDITIONS AT KCXO.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES ARE LESS
ELSEWHERE.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND HUMID EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NE AREAS. WILL
SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH M CLOUDY SKIES AND
DW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG
WHERE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT...BUT NOT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
WE SAW LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS
AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTS
NE ACROSS N TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. EXPECT
SCT SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING TOMORROW ACROSS W/NW AREAS
OF SE TX...THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST
OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK
OF SVR TSTMS GENERALLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WITH THE RAIN CHC ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHCS AGAIN INCREASING. 33/44
MARINE...
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL PARTLY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AND SEAS OVER WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 81 65 74 61 / 10 50 80 40 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 70 79 65 / 10 30 50 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 78 73 78 69 / 10 10 40 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VIS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHEN RAIN STARTS AND STOPS. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH A NORTH WIND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/ESCARPMENT/I-35
CORRIDOR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...
UPDATE...SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST PERTAINING
TO OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS AND SEVERE THREATS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL PLACEMENT WERE TWEAKED PER LATEST TIME
ENSEMBLES OF HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCE PERCENTAGES WERE BOOSTED
ANOTHER 10% FOR THE 4AM-10AM RANGE IN THE MOSTLY LIKELY AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO THE THE EAST HILL COUNTRY TO
THE ESCARPMENT AND NEAR I-35. THIS COULD INCLUDE BOTH THE SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN METRO AREAS.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A LOW-END
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40 TO 60
MPH WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL PLUME OF MID-LVL BAND ISENTROPIC INDUCED SHOWERS IS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE
ESCARPMENT REGION. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAWN WITH CURRENT PROGGED PWATS
NEAR 1.7" INCREASING TOWARDS 2.1" BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
KCRP SOUNDING SAMPLED 2.11" WHICH WAS ABOVE THEIR MAXIMUM MOVING
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY 0.17" BELOW THEIR ALL-
TIME DAILY MAXIMUM. OF NOTE...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS AND
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPS DATA SUGGEST NEAR 200 M2/S2 0-1KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR DAWN
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO UTILIZE THIS
ORGANIZATIONAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. A H7-H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPULSE IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS/NAM AND RAP TO BE
TRANSITING THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT SAME TIME
OF THE PWAT INCREASE BY 6AM. THIS LIFT INDUCING IMPULSE WITH NEAR
500-1000 J/KG CAPE AND CONTINUED 150-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH IN
PRESENCE OF 40-45KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS IN THIS HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT
COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS SOME STRONG WINDS OF
40-60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SPC SSEO
IS INDICATIVE OF AN UPTICK IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS THROUGH 6AM TIME-
FRAME THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF POTENTIAL EVOLUTION.
OF NOTE HAS BEEN THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE HRRR THAT AS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE. THE RAP (WHICH DID WELL
LOCATION WISE OF HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT IN THE 10/30 EVENT)
DOES NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE HRRR BUT IS QUITE
SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR REGION.
THE HILL COUNTRY TO ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR IS THE PRIMARY
ZONE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A
SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A
NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM
CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO
THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST
AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW.
THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT
THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO
BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 80 80 80 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 70 80 80 30 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 80 70 80 30 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 70 70 80 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1231 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE
SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER
WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF
PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT
CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUED TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA
THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS
SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE
SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH
MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT
ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING
THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT
TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A
SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE
PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...
SOLID WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES WITH THE MAIN
CULPRIT LOWERING CIGS. THANKS TO THE TERRAIN...KBLF WILL BE RIGHT
ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR AND THE LATEST OBS SHOW THAT THEY
HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
BUILD BACK IN AND WILL HAVE TO AMD IF THE IMPROVEMENT BECOMES MORE
THAN TEMPORARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO GENERATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE WILL NOT WARRANT
MORE THAN A VCSH.
THE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST WHICH WEAKENS THE WEDGE AND ALLOWS
DIURNAL HEATING TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD DECK TOWARD NOONTIME. WILL
KEEP A BKN CIG AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE A BKN/V/SCT
SITUATION.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING
KBLF WHERE ELEVATION AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO A PREFERRED SWLY
DIRECTION WILL HELP GENERATE SOME GUSTS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WILL
TRANSITION FROM ONE DOMINATED BY WARM-SECTOR UPLIFT IN ITS EARLY
STAGES...TO ONE DOMINATED BY TWO OTHER FACTORS...COLD ADVECTION
AND DEFORMATION. THE COLD ADVECTION BEGAN KICKING IN OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY OVER THE ROAN PLATEAU. AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOME AIR BEGINS TO
CIRCULATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS HOLD QPF SOUTH OF THE COLORADO-NEW
MEXICO BORDER SO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. SIMILARLY...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON VALLEY AS
WELL SINCE DYNAMICS NOR FLOW ARE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO
CREATING A SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE HILLS NORTH OF THE
GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH/S GRAND FLAT. A BAND OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED BY THE NAM AND HRRR TO MOVE FROM THE
ROAN PLATEAU ...EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND
EXIT THE AREA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
APPEARED TO BE TIMED WELL WITH FORECAST MOVEMENT AND EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE ERODES A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK RANGE IN THE
EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FIRST
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEREFORE APPEARS
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES ARE FAVORED WITH THIS STORM AND COLDER
AIR SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY BOTTOMS.
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ERODES
CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AT MIDWEEK WHICH IMPLIES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO DIP TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE FALLING AT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT KASE...KEGE...KTEX...KRIL MOST FREQUENTLY
RELATIVE TO OTHER AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE EXPECT
KGJT...KMTJ...KDRO...KVEL AND KCNY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003-017.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013-018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR UTZ022-
027-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MID MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOW THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE MOST SUN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT OBS...AND BLEND THE CONDITIONS INTO THE
FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING KEEPING TEMPS. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WARM AND MOIST PATTERN
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH INTO THE DAY AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
REGION AS WELL. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO RISE
BEFORE DAWN AND FURTHER INTO THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR THIS...HAVE LEFT THE AREA DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SET UP AS PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z WITH SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING MAKING TI INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEFORE DAWN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 50 KNOTS
WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY DAWN AND WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...THOUGH ELEVATED...WILL BRING IN THUNDER BY 10Z IN
THE WEST. FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT...WILL BRING IN CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE ONE QUESTION
IS THAT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL THERE BE A THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE SPORADIC AND GENERALLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO FOR
THIS...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO BEGIN
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ALIGNED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND DAMPEN...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF LOW BREAKING AWAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS
SHOW UP BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE DID
UNDERCUT SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE TRENDED
UP ALONG THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN THE FORCING AND
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAINFALL TO OUR AREA.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW ENSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
DESPITE SOME 3K FT CIGS AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH IN TN...THEY HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO CROSS THE CUMBERLAND REGION THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP
MAINLY 4K TO 5K FT CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
AS THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
958 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Warm start to the day so far. In fact, should SDF stay at 64 for
the low for the day, it will tie the record warm minimum temperature
for the date, set back in 1977. BWG is at 64 for the day as well,
which would break the record last set in 1994. LEX and FFT both
reached 59 this morning, so their records are safe.
As for precip, we are still on track for a weakening line of showers
approaching our northwest forecast area this evening, or perhaps
some showers developing over that area. Latest local WRF runs
through 06Z and has a stronger line just northwest of the region at
that time. This matches up well with the end of the latest HRRR runs
as well. This band is in association with the northern vortmax, now
over western NE/KS, of the broad trough entering the Plains states.
Forecasting out in time, expect the worst of this band to perhaps
just clip our northern forecast area...but given the time of day
still think the worst it will produce is some brief gusty winds and
thunder.
The precipitable water available and forcing should be enough to
blanket the rest of the region at least with showers Friday morning,
so categorical pops still look good. Forecast QPF totals for the
event range from around a half inch over the northwest forecast area
to a quarter to half inch in the rest of the region. These totals
are in line with SPC ensemble means.
All that said, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Have sent out a
grid update to match current obs and make slight tweaks to pops,
that do not affect the overall zone forecast enough for an update.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Main challenge is the intensity of showers and storms tonight and
Friday as a dynamic upper low ejects out of the Four Corners region.
Model progs suggest some phasing of the northern and southern
streams, but the northern stream will dominate and the southern
stream wave will shear out as it lifts quickly NE into the Great
Lakes. Surface low will lift to near James Bay by early Friday, with
the cold front dragging through the Ohio Valley as it is left
behind.
Another unseasonably warm day today in the southerly flow ahead of
the front. However, clouds will be a limiting factor in temps, and
we can`t rule out a few spotty warm advection showers, especially
west of I-65. Max temp forecast is near MOS consensus, but with more
sunshine than advertised we could approach record highs near 80.
By tonight POPs ramp up to categorical, as the low-level jet cranks
up near 50 kt ahead of the front. SPC has trimmed the Day 1 Marginal
Risk back to near the Mississippi River, but leaves the Day 2
Marginal covering all over central KY and southern IN. Main factor
weighing against SVR potential is that the dynamics never quite
coincide with the moisture and instability, as it`s a weakening
system coming through near the diurnal minimum of instability. Will
carry embedded thunder, and gusty showers seem a fairly good bet
tonight. Will highlight potential for 40 mph gusts in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook and any graphics that go out this morning. Normally
would be inclined to bump up from guidance mins, but there should be
enough precip to drop temps into the mid 60s.
Will drop POPs quickly from NW-SE on Friday morning as the front
pushes through the northern half of the area. By Friday afternoon,
the front does hang up enough to warrant chance POPs south of a
Bowling Green to Richmond line into Friday night. Seasomable temps
return Friday night as much cooler air finally spills in behind the
front.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Cold front will make a slow exit, so we can`t rule out a few
lingering showers Sat morning near Lake Cumberland. Otherwise, cool
high pressure building from the north will bring quiet weather for
the weekend, with temps running slightly below normal for early
November.
By early next week, lingering upper trofiness left behind by the
Friday system will develop into a closed low over Arkansas. This
feature will get caught up in broader SW flow aloft, and lift
through the Ohio Valley by Monday night. GFS/ECMWF are showing
better agreement that this low will draw moisture northward into the
Ohio Valley, so will continue to carry 20-30 POP for Monday. Best
chance of light rain will be across south central Kentucky.
Dry and seasonable pattern Tue-Wed under surface high and shortwave
ridge aloft. Vigorous upper low will dig into the western CONUS by
Tuesday, then eject out across the Plains mid-week. This could be a
significant system for the Ohio Valley, but at this point all
sensible wx impacts look to hold off until at least Wed night/Thu.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 615 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Low level moisture will move into the area today ahead of an
approaching cold front set to arrive on Friday. Ahead of this
feature, expecting current VFR ceilings to possibly drop into the
IFR range for a period of time this morning in the afternoon.
Upstream obs have gone down right around the MVFR/IFR threshold,
although BWG has yet to see anyting below 5 K feet. Will stay on the
optimistic side of IFR, but do feel there will be a period of below
fuel alternate. Less confidence at SDF where MVFR clouds would be
most likely from late morning to mid afternoon, which is generally
the least favorable time of day for this to occur. Think LEX will
stay far enough east that MVFR conditions won`t occur until later
tonight.
Expect generally south surface winds to pick up around 10 mph
through the day, with all sites going VFR through the afternoon. A
few sprinkles may be around at times this afternoon, but not enough
to mention.
Rain and perhaps a few t-storm will increase in coverage from west
to east after Midnight. Any shower will bring a reduction in
visibility, and expect ceilings to drop into the MVFR range. Gusty
SSW winds may be enough to limit the potential for lower than MVFR
ceilings.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
...THE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IS NOW OVER
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA
WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED
THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW
OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL
CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE
MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW.
SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY
21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB
BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT
SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE
PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE
WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM.
550 AM: CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED UP TO THE TRI-CITIES BUT STRATUS
IS NEARBY...LURKING BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU
THE STRATUS WILL REINVADE.
TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS
OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN
THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A
LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN
TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF
IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE
AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE
FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE
08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT.
TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S...
WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE
INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD
EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE
A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S
EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY
CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD
FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD
HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF
FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM
TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: WSHFT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR/MVFR CIGS.
TODAY: MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE TERMINALS BUT
WILL MOVE BACK IN SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU 14Z-15Z.
EXPECT WSHFT FROM SW TO NW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IFR CIGS AT
EAR SINCE LXN/ODX ARE AT 600-700 FT AT 12Z. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD
LIFT TO MVFR 15Z-19Z. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. BRIEF VFR SHWR
POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: CLEARING AS MVFR CIGS DEPART. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
...THE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IS NOW OVER
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA
WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED
THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW
OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL
CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE
MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW.
SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY
21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB
BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT
SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE
PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE
WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM.
TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS
OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN
THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A
LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN
TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF
IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE
AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE
FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE
08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT.
TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S...
WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE
INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD
EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE
A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S
EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY
CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD
FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD
HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF
FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM
TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR -SHRA WITH VCTS WILL EXIT EAR SHORTLY AND
MOVE THRU GRI 06Z-07Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD TEMPORARILY TURN VFR
BEHIND THIS WEAKENING SQUALL LINE. S WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
THU: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS 14Z-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING
BACK IN. WSHFT TO NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
THU EVE: MVFR CIGS EXITING TO VFR SKC. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
PROPAGATES EAST AND FORCING DECREASES. THIS THINKING IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY HI-RES (HRRR...RAP) MODELS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LOW LEVEL TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING ARE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WHERE THE P-TYPE IS SNOW. WEB CAMS INDICATE SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS REMAINING WET (ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS). AT ANY
RATE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A THIN BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION BY THIS EVENING FROM VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AND
NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THE VALLEY REMAINING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH
THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SFC HARDER TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER...ACROSS
EASTERN KITTSON COUNTY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON (AGAIN..1-2 INCHES). WILL MONITOR WEBCAMS FOR ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ONCE RAIN MOVES IN CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO MVFR RANGE. CURRENT LIFR
CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING DVL...GFK...TVF
AND BJI. HAVE CIGS LIFTING INTO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AND COULD BE A BUSY UPDATE DAY. VSBY ALSO
IMPROVING WITH ALL AREAS MVFR OR VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE FA. WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SPOTTY LOWERED POPS THIS
AREA. SO FAR PCPN HAS BEEN MOSTLY RAIN SO NO CHANGES YET WITH
PHASE. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ONCE RAIN MOVES IN CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO MVFR RANGE. CURRENT LIFR
CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING DVL...GFK...TVF
AND BJI. HAVE CIGS LIFTING INTO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AND COULD BE A BUSY UPDATE DAY. VSBY ALSO
IMPROVING WITH ALL AREAS MVFR OR VFR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
903 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND PULL
A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOST OF THE
MODELS..INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF
AROUND THE AREA TODAY. NOT SURE IF THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES BREAKING OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
INCREASE AND INDUCE A LITTLE LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE INVERSION NEAR 700 MB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
DRY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE
SPRINKLE THREAT. WILL ADD MENTION OS SLIGHT CHC FOR SPRINKLES.
THE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT ON AVERAGE MOST PLACES
WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR THE SITUATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS
JAMES BAY. A GOOD SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN NW
OHIO THIS EVENING BUT DRY AIR BELOW THIS LAYER MAY DELAY THE ONSET
OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...ALL MODELS SHOW A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
REACHING NORTHERN OHIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
RAPIDLY FILL IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
AROUND 90 PERCENT ALL AREAS STRADDLING A 09-15Z WINDOW WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT SO
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LOW CAPE HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING A
LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR STRONG STORMS WITH NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT BEST. GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER...WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...WE
CAN AT LEAST EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND BROUGHT A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION AS VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
DID ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS WILL RETURN.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES FOR MANY INLAND AREAS ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION AT
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WE THEN SET UP
A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IF THE PAST HOLDS TRUE BETWEEN THE MODELS
THE GFS WILL LIFT THE ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOO FAST
WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDING UP BEING THE BETTER SOLUTION. SO FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z
ECMWF FORECAST.
ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND KTOL THROUGH 15Z.
OTHERWISE AFTER A MORNING DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS IT APPEARS THAT A 5000 FOOT CEILING WILL DEVELOP THEN
SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK AS IF
THEY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NW OHIO AROUND 03Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS. RAIN MAY REACH NW OHIO BY 07Z BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR NOW. AS THE
RAINS BEGIN CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TODAY. THE
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25
KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD WHERE
WINDS COULD TOUCH 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME A DEFINITE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BUILD WAVES TO
AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO GO A BIT LONGER FROM WILLOWICK TO
RIPLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA.
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S
TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 70 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 30 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
514 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX
ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM
COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN
END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS
IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7-
H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/
LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A
BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX
AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE
MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE
THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS
COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
SNOW/RAIN IS STEADILY PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS FILLED IN
BEHIND THE PRECIP BUT SHOULD STEADILY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
CYCLE...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...BUT WILL STAY GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX
ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM
COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN
END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS
IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7-
H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/
LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A
BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX
AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE
MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE
THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS
COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. ABOVE 5000 FEET MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOW CEILINGS AND FALLING SNOW WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ115>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
WITH BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW EAST OF UTAH...CANCELLED WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR EASTERN UT MTNS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REFORM AROUND
GJT AND SCOOT EAST SO WILL HOLD ON TO THE HIGHLIGHTS AS CURRENTLY
DESIGNED IN WESTERN CO...ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MTN RANGE. AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL OF 5000 FEET NORTH TO
6500 FEET SOUTH. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH VALLEY ZONES FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH CERTAINTY OF A KILLING FROST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WILL
TRANSITION FROM ONE DOMINATED BY WARM-SECTOR UPLIFT IN ITS EARLY
STAGES...TO ONE DOMINATED BY TWO OTHER FACTORS...COLD ADVECTION
AND DEFORMATION. THE COLD ADVECTION BEGAN KICKING IN OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY OVER THE ROAN PLATEAU. AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOME AIR BEGINS TO
CIRCULATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS HOLD QPF SOUTH OF THE COLORADO-NEW
MEXICO BORDER SO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. SIMILARLY...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON VALLEY AS
WELL SINCE DYNAMICS NOR FLOW ARE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO
CREATING A SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE HILLS NORTH OF THE
GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH/S GRAND FLAT. A BAND OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED BY THE NAM AND HRRR TO MOVE FROM THE
ROAN PLATEAU ...EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND
EXIT THE AREA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
APPEARED TO BE TIMED WELL WITH FORECAST MOVEMENT AND EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE ERODES A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK RANGE IN THE
EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FIRST
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEREFORE APPEARS
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES ARE FAVORED WITH THIS STORM AND COLDER
AIR SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY BOTTOMS.
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ERODES
CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AT MIDWEEK WHICH IMPLIES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO DIP TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE FALLING AT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
SCT SHOWERS...SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE TAF SITES ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND KASE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...THOUGH SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL KEEP MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FOR AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF CO AND THERE WILL
BE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE KEGE AND KASE. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
TOO LOW TO GO BEYOND VCSH. HOWEVER...WHERE CLEARING DOES
OCCUR...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013-018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ008.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
UTZ022-027-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...BEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of
showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just
northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into
north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms
are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some
of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into
central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main
convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over
east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should
fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting
this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening
and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the
convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots).
Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms
from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off
in the wake of the convective line.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning
which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region
for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively
cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve
experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s
will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next
week.
When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly
winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and
Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will
eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of
pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on
timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the
system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system
with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep
pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS
bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the
models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur.
However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into
better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known;
which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just
above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid
50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the
passage of a fast moving cold front. Currently thinking any rain
before 00Z should be devoid of any thunder, as the instability
will be accompanying the front itself. While the pressure gradient
will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to
30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the
strong dynamics with the system. A period of MVFR conditions will
start to move in a couple hours before the main line, and skies
should rapidly clear before sunrise. Existing TAF`s had this in
hand and only required some minor timing adjustments.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Batch of rain showers advancing northeast ahead of the leading
shortwave. Bulk of this will be affecting areas east of I-55, but
have confined the highest PoP`s to locations south of a
Taylorville to Paris line. There will likely be a break in some of
the precipitation between this and the line of showers/storms that
is expected to develop across central Iowa/northwest Missouri
later this afternoon. The recent runs of the higher resolution
model guidance focus on the 9 pm to 3 am time frame for frontal
passage and its associated line of broken convection, and have
adjusted the hourly rain chances accordingly. RAP guidance showing
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg, along with strong 0-6
km bulk shear values upwards of 60 knots, so will need to watch
for some stronger winds mixing down in the heavier showers/storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense
fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of
moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this
afternoon.
Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought
the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several
mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient
to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into
the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of
moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between
3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming
northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of
patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be
nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings.
Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri
Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our
area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of
showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties
this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead
wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place
with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs
will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a
slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial
shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look
for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help
push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s
with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight
tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread
showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening
and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday
morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA
tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong
winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over
central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this
evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning
with breeze WNW winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash
river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid
60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on
Friday from tonight`s lows.
A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat
morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a
period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the
lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river
valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and
southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday
and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New
England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure
developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday
through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast
models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as
southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river
valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf
southeast of central IL Mon/Tue.
More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep
upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure
intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river
valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening
per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east
across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night)
and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with
this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF
models due to highly amplified upper level pattern. Stuck close
to model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest
pops east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night
and Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms
due to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the
passage of a fast moving cold front. Currently thinking any rain
before 00Z should be devoid of any thunder, as the instability
will be accompanying the front itself. While the pressure gradient
will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to
30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the
strong dynamics with the system. A period of MVFR conditions will
start to move in a couple hours before the main line, and skies
should rapidly clear before sunrise. Existing TAF`s had this in
hand and only required some minor timing adjustments.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Batch of rain showers advancing northeast ahead of the leading
shortwave. Bulk of this will be affecting areas east of I-55, but
have confined the highest PoP`s to locations south of a
Taylorville to Paris line. There will likely be a break in some of
the precipitation between this and the line of showers/storms that
is expected to develop across central Iowa/northwest Missouri
later this afternoon. The recent runs of the higher resolution
model guidance focus on the 9 pm to 3 am time frame for frontal
passage and its associated line of broken convection, and have
adjusted the hourly rain chances accordingly. RAP guidance showing
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg, along with strong 0-6
km bulk shear values upwards of 60 knots, so will need to watch
for some stronger winds mixing down in the heavier showers/storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense
fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of
moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this
afternoon.
Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought
the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several
mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient
to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into
the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of
moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between
3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming
northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of
patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be
nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings.
Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri
Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our
area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of
showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties
this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead
wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place
with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs
will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a
slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial
shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look
for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help
push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s
with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight
tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread
showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening
and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday
morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA
tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong
winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over
central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this
evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning
with breeze WNW winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash
river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid
60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on
Friday from tonight`s lows.
A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat
morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a
period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the
lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river
valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and
southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday
and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New
England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure
developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday
through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast
models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as
southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river
valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf
southeast of central IL Mon/Tue.
More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep
upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure
intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river
valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening
per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east
across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night)
and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with
this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF
models due to highly amplified upper level pattern. Stuck close
to model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest
pops east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night
and Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms
due to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Patchy MVFR and IFR cigs/vsbys possible thru 13z, then VFR
conditions are expected thru today with a return to MVFR and
local IFR conditions in showers and isold thunder tonight.
Increased southerly winds has prevented any widespread dense fog
from forming this morning. We still could see a brief period of
MVFR and local IFR cigs and vsbys with the fog for about an hour
after sunrise, then mostly VFR cigs are expected into the afternoon
hours. As the cold front pushes into the area tonight, showers
will increase and the cigs/vsbys will decrease. A lead shortwave
may bring an initial surge of moisture and showers into the area
this afternoon. Will cover with a VCSH for that possibility, then
the better chances arrive after dark this evening as the cold
front approaches.
MVFR cigs may actually get into the PIA area just before 00z,
with the other TAF sites seeing MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys in
showers and isold TSRA tonight. Southerly winds of 12 to 17 kts
can be expected today with gusts up to 25 kts at times a little
later this morning thru the afternoon hours. Look for the winds to
veer into a westerly direction tonight as the cold front sweeps
thru the area with speeds in the 12 to 17 kt range with gusts once
again around 25 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
354 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
A narrow but expanding band of showers was developing across the far
southwest counties this afternoon, as far east as Liberal and
Ulysses. This shower band is associated with an advancing upper cold
trough just behind a surface 850 mb frontal boundary about top clear
the CWA line in the southwest. Clouds have continued to expand
during the afternoon elsewhere across the the area behind the
boundary, leaving the south central Kansas counties in locations
line Pratt Medicine Lodge and Coldwater sunny all afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The HRRR has continued to expand the pops eastward through the
entire southern half of the forecast through the late afternoon as
the wave translates across the area. A narrow corridor may pick up
on the order of one tenth of an inch of rain in while most of the
rest of the area will see scattered brief showers with little
accumulation. As the high pressure expands across the area tonight,
winds will gradually subside to light and northerly. The next couple
of day will lead to overall cooler temperatures. Higher dewpoint
immediately behind the boundary lends itself to some uncertainty in
just how cool temperatures may fall in the eastern portion of the
area, which will limit the eastward extent of tonight`s freeze
warning. Temperatures will warm back toward the 60 degree mark with
light winds on Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Colder air is likely across the entire forecast area by early
Saturday morning as the pacific surface high pressure expands across
the Central Plains this weekend. This will be the coldest morning of
the forecast period with the western counties very likely falling
into the upper 20s in the western counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
An 850 mb frontal boundary now moving though the area will eventual
bring slightly lower surface dew points ans an drier airmass.
However in the meantime, a sharp trough and cold pool this
afternoon could set off showers across sections of south west and
south central Kansas and may cause amendments to TAF site GCK/DDC.
Any shower activity will not likely affect VFR conditions at any
sites however.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 60 32 54 / 40 10 10 0
GCK 32 59 29 54 / 30 20 20 0
EHA 30 58 29 53 / 30 10 10 0
LBL 34 61 30 55 / 40 10 10 0
HYS 34 59 30 54 / 10 10 20 0
P28 39 62 35 57 / 30 0 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for
KSZ045-046-064-065-077>080-086>088.
Freeze Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 8 AM CST
/7 AM MST/ Friday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD
TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH
TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY
5-10F.
FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM
ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS
ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR
ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND
LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A
LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED
LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
EXTENSIVE 1500-2000 KFT AGL STRATUS LAYER EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. SATELLITE AND OBS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW
ANY TREND TOWARDS VFR TO THE NORTHWEST (UPSTREAM). ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN TREND TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONSIDERING CURRENT TRENDS I AM NOT SURE IF THIS IS
REALISTIC IN THE NEAR TERM. DURING THIS UPDATE I DELAYED THE ONSET
FOR STRATUS LIFTING AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
(20-21Z). UPSTREAM LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ON RADAR CURRENTLY MOVING
TOWARDS BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER
22-23Z THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z FROM THE NORTHWEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF CONSISTENCY
ON THIS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The HRRR is still trying to figure out the convective evolution
tonight. Earlier it appeared a consensus was building for the
current area of showers to dissipate as it moved through southern
Illinois this evening, and then the main QLCS activity would move
back into the area around midnight. The most recent runs are a
bit more diverse, building more intense convection northeast
through the boot heel 03-06Z and then through west Kentucky mostly
by 09Z. This run is showing a more signifant LEWP structure than
we have seen before. So this is actually an escalation from what
we have been expecting.
The bottom line is that the larger-scale models continue to
develop plenty of low-level shear and most unstable CAPE to
support severe weather in the form of damaging winds and tornadoes
as the main line moves through the region late this evening and
overnight. There still is the potential for the system to produce
little or no lightning.
Most of the overnight activity will be east southeast of the area
by 12Z. There is a small chance of showers streaming east
northeast along the Tennessee border through Friday night, as a
larger-scale trough approaches the area. Will keep a small pop
down there to handle this possibility.
Generally trended toward the warm side guidance for highs and lows
through Friday night, then toward the cool side Saturday through
Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Confidence is medium but a bit better than previous runs until mid
to late next week then timing confidence is very low.
The models now are in good agreement of a cut off low...caught up in
a weak perturbation...will pass just our northwest. As it passes it
pulls gulf moisture to its southeast over the pah fa and create
enough lift to produce some showers at least over the southeast
portion Monday. Where the models differ is the exact path of the
low. Some would bring it through the fa while others keep farther to
northwest. They also differ on the western extent of the rain. They
do however agree the closed low will open up and accelerate out of
the area. The models are in fair agreement of spotty waa type
showers in the lows wake. These would be low confidence and would
yield very little rain or coverage if they do occur...so most areas
dry until the next system arrives. The models continue to be around
24 hours apart on the next system. Confidence in another system is
fair but timing of system is low. Right now the GFS is the fastest
with the system arriving around 6z Wed. The DGEX is in the middle
with arrival Wed aftn. Finally the ECMWF brings it in Thursday
around 12z. Some elevated instability was indicated with K index
values around 35. Surface based instability is not indicated at this
time. Will likely hold off introduction of thunder unless
collaboration calls for it and then it would only be isolated at
best. Will hold off and see what the extended init yields and use
collaboration to try and present a reasonable solution at this
juncture. Temperatures will start out below normal and slowly warm
to near normal next week that is until the mid to late week system
moves through then back below normal expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
May flirt with MVFR ceilings at the onset of the period, but they
should settle in at lower VFR levels quickly this afternoon. A
batch of showers will push through KCGI later this afternoon, and
MVFR conditions will be possible with it. Most guidance shows
that area dissipating as it tries to reach KPAH and KEVV after
00Z. The main round of convection will move southeast through the
area from just after 06Z through 09Z or 10Z. Threw in some gusts
with IFR conditions, but did not mention TS at this time. The odds
of TS are very slim at any one point. IFR or low MVFR ceilings
will persist through daybreak and strong clearing is expected a
bit behind the cold front. Northwest winds will be the rule Friday
morning.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1203 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Multiple versions of the HRRR are now showing a QLCS moving into
the northwest periphery of our area around midnight. The 12Z
models continue to show enough shear and elevated instability
to support some severe weather in the overnight hours. SPC`s
latest day 1 outlook describes the concern pretty well. It still
looks like lightning will be very iffy tonight.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Main forecast issue with the near term continues to lie with
thunderstorm risk in the first 24 hours of the package.
Though models suggest most of the mid level energy will be shunted
off to the north of the region, MU CAPES up to around 500J/kg
continue to be generated at times by the 00Z NAM and GFS during
the overnight hours tonight along and ahead of an advancing cold
front. A local study indicates that this would be sufficient to
support an isolated tornado or two given the high shear
environment (0-6 KM shear 50+ kts) to go along with some pockets of
damaging winds. Surface dew points in the lower half of the 60s are
also a bit worrisome. However, the weak instability will make it
difficult to generate lightning, so we may end up with a few severe
showers as opposed to thunderstorms. Does not look like a big
outbreak at this time by any means. Furthermore, PWATS should be
running near the 99th percentile for this time of year, so will need
to monitor for locally heavy rainfall too. Luckily, most areas can
take some decent rainfall.
The precipitation will clear most, if not all, of the region by
early in the day Friday. Clouds may not be so quick to depart,
esp over wrn KY. Better chc for a bit of sun on Sat...though temps
will be much cooler in the upper 50s to near 60.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
The latter half of the weekend and into early next week, the PAH
forecast area will be under the influence of high sfc pressure and
slack flow aloft. The only exception will be a minor feature in the
mid level flow, a low that is shown to close off in our vicinity and
induce an inverted sfc trof. Depending on which med range model you
believe, a rain shield may cover all or just part of our area on
Mon. For now, we will forecast a short-lived slight chance of
measurable rain for roughly the ern half of the region. It will
certainly cloud up a bit. The feature will then begin to damp out
and move off toward the nern CONUS, leaving weak ridging aloft and
increasing swrly low level flow behind.
The deterministic GFS has trended faster and deeper with
cyclogenesis across the central Plains into the upper Midwest mid
week, in fact, the 00Z GFS and EC solutions are similar in pattern
but different by 24 hrs. This introduced some doubt in whether the
PAH forecast area will receive any rainfall by Wed (Day 7).
Furthermore, a low level fetch into our region from ern TX, if it
holds, would restrict moisture return for shower and tstm
development. For now, slight to low chance PoPs were used in the
forecast Tue night/Wed, which is less than what the initialization
blend provided.
Temperatures are expected to steadily rise throughout the extended
forecast period, to near seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
May flirt with MVFR ceilings at the onset of the period, but they
should settle in at lower VFR levels quickly this afternoon. A
batch of showers will push through KCGI later this afternoon, and
MVFR conditions will be possible with it. Most guidance shows
that area dissipating as it tries to reach KPAH and KEVV after
00Z. The main round of convection will move southeast through the
area from just after 06Z through 09Z or 10Z. Threw in some gusts
with IFR conditions, but did not mention TS at this time. The odds
of TS are very slim at any one point. IFR or low MVFR ceilings
will persist through daybreak and strong clearing is expected a
bit behind the cold front. Northwest winds will be the rule Friday
morning.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1252 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
WITH READINGS ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MID MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOW THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE MOST SUN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT OBS...AND BLEND THE CONDITIONS INTO THE
FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING KEEPING TEMPS. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WARM AND MOIST PATTERN
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH INTO THE DAY AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
REGION AS WELL. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO RISE
BEFORE DAWN AND FURTHER INTO THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR THIS...HAVE LEFT THE AREA DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SET UP AS PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z WITH SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING MAKING TI INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEFORE DAWN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 50 KNOTS
WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY DAWN AND WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...THOUGH ELEVATED...WILL BRING IN THUNDER BY 10Z IN
THE WEST. FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT...WILL BRING IN CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE ONE QUESTION
IS THAT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL THERE BE A THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE SPORADIC AND GENERALLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO FOR
THIS...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO BEGIN
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ALIGNED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND DAMPEN...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF LOW BREAKING AWAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS
SHOW UP BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE DID
UNDERCUT SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE TRENDED
UP ALONG THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN THE FORCING AND
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAINFALL TO OUR AREA.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW ENSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015
DESPITE SOME 3K FT CIGS AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH IN TN...THEY HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO CROSS THE CUMBERLAND REGION THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP
MAINLY 4K TO 5K FT CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
AS THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1231 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Warm start to the day so far. In fact, should SDF stay at 64 for
the low for the day, it will tie the record warm minimum temperature
for the date, set back in 1977. BWG is at 64 for the day as well,
which would break the record last set in 1994. LEX and FFT both
reached 59 this morning, so their records are safe.
As for precip, we are still on track for a weakening line of showers
approaching our northwest forecast area this evening, or perhaps
some showers developing over that area. Latest local WRF runs
through 06Z and has a stronger line just northwest of the region at
that time. This matches up well with the end of the latest HRRR runs
as well. This band is in association with the northern vortmax, now
over western NE/KS, of the broad trough entering the Plains states.
Forecasting out in time, expect the worst of this band to perhaps
just clip our northern forecast area...but given the time of day
still think the worst it will produce is some brief gusty winds and
thunder.
The precipitable water available and forcing should be enough to
blanket the rest of the region at least with showers Friday morning,
so categorical pops still look good. Forecast QPF totals for the
event range from around a half inch over the northwest forecast area
to a quarter to half inch in the rest of the region. These totals
are in line with SPC ensemble means.
All that said, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Have sent out a
grid update to match current obs and make slight tweaks to pops,
that do not affect the overall zone forecast enough for an update.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Main challenge is the intensity of showers and storms tonight and
Friday as a dynamic upper low ejects out of the Four Corners region.
Model progs suggest some phasing of the northern and southern
streams, but the northern stream will dominate and the southern
stream wave will shear out as it lifts quickly NE into the Great
Lakes. Surface low will lift to near James Bay by early Friday, with
the cold front dragging through the Ohio Valley as it is left
behind.
Another unseasonably warm day today in the southerly flow ahead of
the front. However, clouds will be a limiting factor in temps, and
we can`t rule out a few spotty warm advection showers, especially
west of I-65. Max temp forecast is near MOS consensus, but with more
sunshine than advertised we could approach record highs near 80.
By tonight POPs ramp up to categorical, as the low-level jet cranks
up near 50 kt ahead of the front. SPC has trimmed the Day 1 Marginal
Risk back to near the Mississippi River, but leaves the Day 2
Marginal covering all over central KY and southern IN. Main factor
weighing against SVR potential is that the dynamics never quite
coincide with the moisture and instability, as it`s a weakening
system coming through near the diurnal minimum of instability. Will
carry embedded thunder, and gusty showers seem a fairly good bet
tonight. Will highlight potential for 40 mph gusts in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook and any graphics that go out this morning. Normally
would be inclined to bump up from guidance mins, but there should be
enough precip to drop temps into the mid 60s.
Will drop POPs quickly from NW-SE on Friday morning as the front
pushes through the northern half of the area. By Friday afternoon,
the front does hang up enough to warrant chance POPs south of a
Bowling Green to Richmond line into Friday night. Seasomable temps
return Friday night as much cooler air finally spills in behind the
front.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Cold front will make a slow exit, so we can`t rule out a few
lingering showers Sat morning near Lake Cumberland. Otherwise, cool
high pressure building from the north will bring quiet weather for
the weekend, with temps running slightly below normal for early
November.
By early next week, lingering upper trofiness left behind by the
Friday system will develop into a closed low over Arkansas. This
feature will get caught up in broader SW flow aloft, and lift
through the Ohio Valley by Monday night. GFS/ECMWF are showing
better agreement that this low will draw moisture northward into the
Ohio Valley, so will continue to carry 20-30 POP for Monday. Best
chance of light rain will be across south central Kentucky.
Dry and seasonable pattern Tue-Wed under surface high and shortwave
ridge aloft. Vigorous upper low will dig into the western CONUS by
Tuesday, then eject out across the Plains mid-week. This could be a
significant system for the Ohio Valley, but at this point all
sensible wx impacts look to hold off until at least Wed night/Thu.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015
Southerly flow ahead of an approaching weather system will continue
to transport moisture laden air into the region. Ceilings are
expected to remain around low VFR thresholds, though some temporary
drops to high MVFR will be possible. In general, expecting a SCT-
BKN deck around 2500-3000ft AGL this afternoon. Surface winds will
pick up as well with south to southwesterly winds of 10-12kts and
some gusts up to 15kts at times.
Convection associated with approaching surface front will move in
from the west after midnight. Some showers out ahead of the actual
front will be possible and those could drop ceilings and vsbys down
into the MVFR range. Conditions look to deteriorate after 06/09-10Z
as the surface front pushes into the region. Ceilings are likely to
drop into the low MVFR range, possibly down into high IFR range.
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be likely at all the
terminals through the end of the fcst period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL
ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS
FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40
MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER
TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL
AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN
PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I
KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS
PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION
IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A
STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD
OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW
WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY
AREAS MAY SEE CIGS THAT BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING IN THE LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
OCCUR AFTER 03Z...PROGRESSING FROM SW TO NE. KAZO AND KBTL WILL
LIKELY SEE THE ONSET OF THE LOWER CATEGORIES. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST BETWEEN 11Z-15Z....SUSTAINED
AT 15-20KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR LMZ844>846.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1151 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
Have updated precipitation trends into this afternoon based on the
latest radar trends. Small vort max seen in water vapor coincident
with low moisture convergence depicted by the latest runs of the
RAP is responsible for the showers moving northeastward into CWA
out of southern MO. The latest runs of the experimental HRRR have
done a good job of capturing this and show this area moving
across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during of late
morning and afternoon hours. This area will move out of the area
by late this afternoon before additional shower and thunderstorms
move into the area from the west along a cold front this evening.
Otherwise...rest of the forecast still looks good.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and
thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid
morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon
hours. There is quite a bit of shear today, but little in the way of
instability. So could see some strong to marginally severe storms
with the main threat being damaging winds. Depending on cloud cover
and precipitation, high temperatures are hard to pin down. For now
have upper 60s to low 70s. Will see winds pickup from the south and
gust to near 25 mph at times.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
In the meantime, a line of strong storms to develop along main
frontal boundary by late this afternoon and march east with the
cold front reaching central Missouri by early this evening. So
best area to see strong storms with the main front will be over
central Missouri, but as we lose daytime heating, storms to weaken
a bit as they slide east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
Then by Friday morning precipitation moves out of forecast area as
surface ridge builds in. Some concern about a brief shot of showers
Friday night and Saturday as a secondary upper level shortwave
slides southeast through forecast area. For now have dry conditions,
though will have increasing clouds through this period. Otherwise,
colder air to filter in with highs only in the low to mid 50s by
Sunday.
By Monday, surface ridge moves off to the east allowing southerly
winds to return once again and temperatures will begin to moderate.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be near normal in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Some timing, placement and strength differences among
the extended models for the next weather system as it approaches
Tuesday night and Wednesday. So for now kept slight chance/chance
pops for this period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
Large area of showers will continue to move northeast across the
St. Louis metro TAF sites through most of the afternoon hours
bringing wet runways and low VFR or high MVFR conditions.
Otherwise a cold front will move through the area this evening
reaching KUIN and KCOU around 01Z and the St. Louis metro taf
sites around 06Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
with it`s passage along with MVFR and a possible IFR conditions. A
few severe thunderstorms are also possible with isolated strong
wind gusts. Gusty southerly winds will veer northwesterly behind
the cold front and skies will clear from west to east around
sunrise as drier air moves into the area.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers are expected through 23Z with low VFR
or high MVFR conditions. Then a break in the rain is expected
until additional showers and isolated thunderstorms move into the
area around 05Z ahead of a cold front that will pass through the
terminal around 08Z. MVFR, possibly IFR conditions are expected
with the passage of these showers and storms. Gusty southerly
winds will veer northwesterly behind the cold front and skies will
clear from west to east around sunrise as drier air moves into the
area.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1010 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
Have updated precipitation trends into this afternoon based on the
latest radar trends. Small vort max seen in water vapor coincident
with low moisture convergence depicted by the latest runs of the
RAP is responsible for the showers moving northeastward into CWA
out of southern MO. The latest runs of the experimental HRRR have
done a good job of capturing this and show this area moving
across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during of late
morning and afternoon hours. This area will move out of the area
by late this afternoon before additional shower and thunderstorms
move into the area from the west along a cold front this evening.
Otherwise...rest of the forecast still looks good.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and
thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid
morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon
hours. There is quite a bit of shear today, but little in the way of
instability. So could see some strong to marginally severe storms
with the main threat being damaging winds. Depending on cloud cover
and precipitation, high temperatures are hard to pin down. For now
have upper 60s to low 70s. Will see winds pickup from the south and
gust to near 25 mph at times.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
In the meantime, a line of strong storms to develop along main
frontal boundary by late this afternoon and march east with the
cold front reaching central Missouri by early this evening. So
best area to see strong storms with the main front will be over
central Missouri, but as we lose daytime heating, storms to weaken
a bit as they slide east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
Then by Friday morning precipitation moves out of forecast area as
surface ridge builds in. Some concern about a brief shot of showers
Friday night and Saturday as a secondary upper level shortwave
slides southeast through forecast area. For now have dry conditions,
though will have increasing clouds through this period. Otherwise,
colder air to filter in with highs only in the low to mid 50s by
Sunday.
By Monday, surface ridge moves off to the east allowing southerly
winds to return once again and temperatures will begin to moderate.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be near normal in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Some timing, placement and strength differences among
the extended models for the next weather system as it approaches
Tuesday night and Wednesday. So for now kept slight chance/chance
pops for this period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015
An initial surge of showers is expected late this morning and
midday for COU and the STL metro TAF sites and should last for a
few hours. Also during this time, MVFR ceilings are expected to
overspread the region. After a short break, a new, stronger line
of TSRA is expected to develop just ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon and track west to east thru, mainly during the
evening hours at the TAF sites. This cold front should end any
remaining rain threat and rapidly clear out the clouds. Otherwise,
southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty during
the late morning and then continue thru the evening, veering only
slightly from the SW during that time. Cold FROPA set for late
tonight for all TAF sites with a moderate NW wind set for Friday.
Marginal LLWS conditions approached this evening but will get
messy with existing convection also anticipated.
Specifics for KSTL: An initial surge of showers is expected late
this morning and should last for a few hours and will likely, at
some point, be accompanied by MVFR conditions. After a short
break during the late afternoon and much of the evening, a new,
stronger line of TSRA is expected to move in late this evening just
ahead of the cold front. Some stronger gusts may occur at the
initial onset of these TSRA but will let subsequent shifts add in
as confidence grows. Passage of the cold front should end any
remaining rain threat and rapidly clear out the clouds. Otherwise,
southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty during
the late morning and then continue thru the evening, veering only
slightly from the SW during that time. Cold FROPA set for around
12z/Friday with NW winds to follow.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1044 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA
WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED
THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW
OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL
CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE
MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW.
SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY
21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE
ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB
BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT
SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE
PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE
WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM.
550 AM: CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED UP TO THE TRI-CITIES BUT STRATUS
IS NEARBY...LURKING BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU
THE STRATUS WILL REINVADE.
TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS
OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN
THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A
LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN
TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF
IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE
AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE
FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE
08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT.
TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S...
WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE
INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD
EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE
A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S
EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY
CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD
FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD
HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF
FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM
TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
THE SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSED THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS HAS
ADVECTED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THIS IS EXECTED TO LINGER
THRU MID AFTN BEFORE SCOURING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. CIG
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EXPECT CIGS TO
VARY AT THE TERMINALS AT TIMES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN BUT CHCS DO NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE JUST YET AS BETTER CHCS FOR THIS EXIST TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...AT LEAST
REGARDING IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH SNOW
IS FALLING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. DID
INCREASE SNOW PROBABILITIES QUICKER WITHIN THE VALLEY...BUT OTHER
FORECAST ASPECTS REQUIRE NO CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
DEFORMATION ZONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
PROPAGATES EAST AND FORCING DECREASES. THIS THINKING IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY HI-RES (HRRR...RAP) MODELS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LOW LEVEL TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING ARE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WHERE THE P-TYPE IS SNOW. WEB CAMS INDICATE SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS REMAINING WET (ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS). AT ANY
RATE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A THIN BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION BY THIS EVENING FROM VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AND
NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THE VALLEY REMAINING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH
THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SFC HARDER TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER...ACROSS
EASTERN KITTSON COUNTY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON (AGAIN..1-2 INCHES). WILL MONITOR WEBCAMS FOR ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND
TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE
BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS
EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA
OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES
THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT
AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING
WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS
THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR
SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT
12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT
WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH TODAY.
PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST
POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES
THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND
PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND THIS
AFTN...WITH IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER...WILL GO AGAINST
FCST GUIDANCE AS NOT SURE THEY ARE DOING WELL WITH THE NEAR SFC
MOISTURE. GENERALLY GOING TO KEEP IFR CONDS THROUGH AFTN. LIGHT
SNOW OVER DVL WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY AND -RA WILL MIX
WITH -SN BY LATE AFTN...IMPACTING GFK/FAR AND TVF/BJI IN THE EARLY
EVENING. NOTE THAT AWOS UNIT AT DVL IS OUT AND USING NEARBY OBS
SUCH AS KRUG...ND AS REPRESENTATIVE BUT IMPROVING FASTER THAN DVL
WILL THROUGH THE AFTN. NO AMDS ARE SKED FOR DVL DUE TO THIS SENSOR
OUTAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
108 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND PULL
A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE
MODELS..INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF
AROUND THE AREA TODAY. NOT SURE IF THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES BREAKING OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
INCREASE AND INDUCE A LITTLE LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE INVERSION NEAR 700 MB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
DRY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE
SPRINKLE THREAT. WILL ADD MENTION OS SLIGHT CHC FOR SPRINKLES.
THE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT ON AVERAGE MOST PLACES
WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR THE SITUATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS
JAMES BAY. A GOOD SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN NW
OHIO THIS EVENING BUT DRY AIR BELOW THIS LAYER MAY DELAY THE ONSET
OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...ALL MODELS SHOW A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
REACHING NORTHERN OHIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
RAPIDLY FILL IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS TO
AROUND 90 PERCENT ALL AREAS STRADDLING A 09-15Z WINDOW WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT SO
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LOW CAPE HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING A
LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR STRONG STORMS WITH NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT BEST. GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER...WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...WE
CAN AT LEAST EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND BROUGHT A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION AS VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
DID ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS WILL RETURN.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES FOR MANY INLAND AREAS ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION AT
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WE THEN SET UP
A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IF THE PAST HOLDS TRUE BETWEEN THE MODELS
THE GFS WILL LIFT THE ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOO FAST
WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDING UP BEING THE BETTER SOLUTION. SO FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z
ECMWF FORECAST.
ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN/OVERCAST LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THIS LAYER HAS BEEN DECREASING IN HEIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. AS OF 18Z CEILINGS WERE ABOUT 6000 FEET AT
TOL AND FDY RISING EASTWARD UP TO 8000 FEET AT YNG AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN HEIGHT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
LIGHTER SHOWERS IN THE 07Z TO 10Z RANGE...PROMPTING A VCSH IN THE
TAFS BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE IMMEDIATELY WITH
THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BRING SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...LIKELY DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO
EVEN IFR IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MAY REACH 30 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS. LEFT OUT A TS
MENTION FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE BUT DEPENDING ON THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT CANNOT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL
TS...ESPECIALLY AT TOL AND FDY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THINGS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY. A
RESIDUAL 5000 FOOT CEILING LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH ABOUT EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND
WILL STILL BE STRONG AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH TOL...CLE...AND ERI STILL
SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE OHIO AND NW PA...
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TODAY. THE
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25
KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD WHERE
WINDS COULD TOUCH 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME A DEFINITE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BUILD WAVES TO
AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO GO A BIT LONGER FROM WILLOWICK TO
RIPLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PCPN TIMING ARRIVAL...STRONG/SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TEMPS.
WILL BE MORE THAN LIKELY MAKING SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THRU SAT NIGHT UP TO PRESS TIME...BUT FOR
NOW...THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF WHAT MOST LIKELY LOOKS TO OCCUR.
AS PRE FRONTAL SHWR AND TSTM AREAL COVERAGE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 05/21Z...NOT EVEN TO THE MS RIVER YET...ALONG WITH
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL(HRRR)SUGGESTING ALSO...LOOKS LIKE THIS LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL NOT EVEN APPROACH THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WRN FRINGES OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY SUNRISE FRI. HRRR ACTUALLY THEN SHOWING THIS ENTIRE
LINE WEAKENING ACROSS THIS AREA AND JUST ABOUT DISSIPATING BY 06/16Z ON FRI.
LATEST SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY TOO...AS
SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM ITS PRESENT LOCATION ACROSS CNTRL OK AND
CNTRL TX...SLOWLY EWD AND MOVING INTO THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION BY
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON...PUSHING THEN EWD INTO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES BY THE
EVENING HRS...AND THEN SE OF MID STATE BY SUNRISE ON SAT. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DOES CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN AS THE DAY ON FRI PROGRESSES.
SRH SFC-3KT AROUND 350 M2/S2 PER KOHX 06/12Z GFS SOUNDING PROFILE...BUT VERY
LOW CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 11 J/KG. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS HERE
OR THERE WITH SOME STRONG EMBEDDED TSTMS...BUT THINK ANY SVR TSTM POTENTIAL
IS LIMITED AT BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...OVERALL EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM
COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI W TO E...BUT ALSO EXPECT AS THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE MID STATE...THAT JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT A LINE OF SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL BE KEEPING
THIS IN MIND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI ALSO. IN ALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONLY BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO AROUND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH THRU FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY TO AT LEAST LINGER ACROSS THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES ON FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW SWLY ORIENTATION LINES UP WELL
WITH SFC FRONTAL POSITION. SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AT LEAST LINGER
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON SAT TOO...UNTIL A STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCES BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
KEEP SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT DRY. LATEST EURO SOLUTION MOST PROGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT
USHERING IN SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM THE SE ON MON...RESULTING
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO/SCT SHWRS. OTHERWISE...INTO TUE AND THEN ON
VETERANS DAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. MODELS NOW ADVERTISING
A WELL DEVELOPED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS AS VETERANS DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE MID STATE NEXT THU.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
HIGHS ON FRI IN THE 70S...BUT AFTER THE FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPS
TO ACTUALLY FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...WITH EVENTUALLY A WARM
UP TO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BY VETERANS
DAY BEFORE THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 68 73 54 62 / 70 80 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 66 73 49 62 / 90 60 20 10
CROSSVILLE 65 72 55 59 / 20 80 90 50
COLUMBIA 67 74 53 61 / 70 70 70 30
LAWRENCEBURG 67 74 55 61 / 40 60 90 50
WAVERLY 67 74 51 62 / 90 60 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS CIGS ARE LIFTING OUT...HOWEVER TERMINALS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NEAR MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPLACED BY A BKN LAYER THAT SHOULD HOVER AROUND 030/035
FEET. THE HRRR AND ARW MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO MENTIONED VCSH AT KCLL ABD KUTS BETWEEN
19-01Z WITH A TEMPO FOR ISOLATED TSRA BEWTEEN 20-23Z.
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN OVER NIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
AGAIN DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AND GRADUALLY STALL OUT
IN THE VICILITY OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND 10Z. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE VICILITY OF THE FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY HOWEVER THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY HINGE ON THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING
VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OVER NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING
DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE DEVELOPED BOTH ALONG
THIS DRYLINE AND APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES EAST UNDERNEATH AN AREA
OF MID-UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW
MEXICO. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING... THE MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEES.
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON THIS MORNING SHOWED A CAP
LOCATED AROUND 700-750 MB THIS MORNING... WITH A SIMILAR FEATURE
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE LAKE CHARLES AND CORPUS SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE
TRENDS DO SHOW SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS/LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE... THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEAKENING FOR ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVER JACKSON COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING... BUT ANTICIPATE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE TODAY TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO BETTER OVERALL LIFT. GPS-MET DATA SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.8 INCHES... AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGER ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 72 61 67 50 / 90 60 50 50 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 80 66 71 54 / 50 60 70 70 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 70 72 59 / 20 50 60 70 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HUFFMAN
AVIATION...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF UPDATE/
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
AROUND 06Z AT KAUS AND 08Z-09Z AT KSAT/KSSF. KDRT WILL SEE THE
WINDSHIFT AROUND 00Z. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
10-15 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
AT 10-15 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z KDRT SOUNDING WAS LIKELY THE CULPRIT
FOR KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE ARE GETTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER
LEVELS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN
MARCOS AS IT APPEARS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED OVER VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND WE WILL OPT TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. FINALLY...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA.
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S
TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N
BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 40 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1034 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z KDRT SOUNDING WAS LIKELY THE CULPRIT
FOR KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE ARE GETTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER
LEVELS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN
MARCOS AS IT APPEARS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED OVER VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND WE WILL OPT TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. FINALLY...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA.
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S
TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N
BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST
TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED
WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW
AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING
CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS
WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK
CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS
WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC
LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION.
MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST
CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE
HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT
HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR
POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO
HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE
MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE
REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT
MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO
THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE
INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE
MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON
DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 60 100 40 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 40 90 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN
BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST
24-36 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN
ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST
WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS.
A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS
FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE.
THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A
STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
THE MIDDLE 40S.
COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES
WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM
SPELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING
THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW
RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH.
PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF
WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING
WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FINE LINE VISIBLE LATE THIS MORNING IN BOTH THE RADAR DATA AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
MARKING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 05.15Z HRRR AND CR-
HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH THE 05.12Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL SEEM TO
HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT.
THESE MODELS ALL SUGGEST IT WILL COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE 05.15Z RAP AND
05.12Z NAM SUGGEST THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT
CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT UNTIL IT HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF
SITES. THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY ALL THE HI-RES MODELS BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH A VERY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN
BLOSSOMING THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ONCE THE FORCING INCREASES.
WILL MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHORTEN UP THE WINDOW OF WHEN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WELL. THE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE CLOUDS TO START SCATTERING OUT AND HAVE SHOWN THIS FOR KRST.
THIS SHOULD HAPPEN RIGHT ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOR KLSE SO WILL LET THE
NEXT FORECAST DETAIL THAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST ONT/NORTHWEST
MN...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO
BORDER. MDT SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOV... WITH READINGS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI AT 07Z MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
05.00Z RAOBS AROUND THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A PROMINENT
INVERSION NEAR/JUST ABOVE 850MB ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/SATURATION BELOW THE INVERSION. LOCALLY...WEAK
SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 295K PRODUCING SOME DZ OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND OFFER GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THEIR 03.00Z/04.00Z RUNS. MODELS OFFERING A TIGHT CONSENSUS AS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THEN INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. TREND BY 00Z FRI AND ESPECIALLY BY 12Z FRI FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THE TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER A RATHER
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 850MB MUCH OF TODAY...UNTIL
COOLING WITH APPROACH OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH ERODES IT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOWING LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION QUITE MOIST/
SATURATED TODAY. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/LIFT
IN THE SUB-850MB LAYER...AND CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE ANY DZ THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC FRONT THRU MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS APPROACH TODAY AND PRESSURES FALL THERE SHOULD BE SOME
GENERAL ASCENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SMALL -DZ CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY
THE CENTRAL/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD.
WILL CONTINUE SMALL DZ CHANCE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL
THE CAP ERODING 850-700MB COOLING WITH TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES. STRONGER
OF THE SFC-700MB QG/FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGER 500-
300MB PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
BULK OF HI-RES/WRF MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER NARROW LINE OF SHRA/
ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
APPEARS RAIN CHANCES AT ANY ONE LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE A 2 TO 3 HR
PERIOD AS THE FRONT PASSES. HAVE TRENDED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO
MIRROR THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE FASTER
PASSAGE AND NARROW LINE OF SHRA/TSRA...APPEARS MOST RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE.
200-300 J/KG MUCAPE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAVE TSRA MENTION WITH THE FRONT AS ISOLATED
FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT QUITE STRONG...WITH AS MUCH AS 60-70KTS OF 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING. ANY TSRA COULD PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...SEE SWODY1
FOR MORE DETAILS. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS THE FRONT EAST OF THE FCST
AREA BY 06Z...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PASS BY 09Z. LIMITED
SHRA CHANCES TO THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z AND CARRIED
A DRY FCST AREA WIDE AFTER 09Z. AFTER ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY...
STRONG SFC-850MB COLD ADVECTION SENDS 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 0C TO +3C
RANGE BY 12Z FRI. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS BY FRI MORNING WILL
FEEL MUCH MORE NOVEMBER LIKE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/
LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS.
05.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF R HGTS TO BRIEFLY RISE FRI IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH/SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI NIGHT. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THIS TROUGH/WAVE TO QUICKLY MOVE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT IS GOOD.
FRI/SAT CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP AS A COUPLE DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. WEAKER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT PASSES SAT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +6C RANGE FRI AND 0C TO +4C RANGE SAT. SOME 925-850MB MOISTURE
CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRI. RESULTING
CLOUDS WILL LIMITING WARMING/MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...STRONGER TREND FOR
DRYING IN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY...WITH MORE DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. EVEN WITH THE COOLER
925MB TEMPS SAT...SAT HIGHS LOOKING TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI.
COOLEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT MORNING
BUT SOME WEST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS MORE IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LAYING/SHELTERED AREAS FOR DECOUPLING AND
POTENTIAL OF COLDER LOWS. WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT
AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO DECOUPLE
DURING THE EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. SFC WINDS LOOKING TO INCREASE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED THRU THE NIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER....FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE THE COLDER OF THE 2 NIGHTS...EVEN AS LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION STARTS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z SHOW IMPROVING CONSENSUS ON
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
TREND IS NOW FOR A MUCH WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE OUT OF THIS TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY MON/MON NIGHT...WITH RIDGING
ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO TUE. BY WED...MODELS AT ODDS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE REGION ON WED WHILE ECMWF
SLOWER AND KEEPS SOME RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION INTO MID-WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD SUN/MON...TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.
DRY/WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/MON AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SUN/MON
SHAPING UP TO BE A COUPLE OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL...NOT AS FAR ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PAST 3 DAYS...BUT HIGHS IN
THE 50S. WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO PASS MON/MON NIGHT AND MINIMAL
SFC REFLECTION OF IT...MON/MON NIGHT TREND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HGTS
RISE FOR TUE BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +7C TO
+10C RANGE...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH BY WED...BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED PER THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY UNTIL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES/DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH SUN-TUE TRENDING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MIXING...TRENDED HIGHS THESE DAYS A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOWS THRU THE PERIOD AND WED
HIGHS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
FINE LINE VISIBLE LATE THIS MORNING IN BOTH THE RADAR DATA AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
MARKING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 05.15Z HRRR AND CR-
HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH THE 05.12Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL SEEM TO
HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT.
THESE MODELS ALL SUGGEST IT WILL COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE 05.15Z RAP AND
05.12Z NAM SUGGEST THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT
CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT UNTIL IT HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF
SITES. THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY ALL THE HI-RES MODELS BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH A VERY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN
BLOSSOMING THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ONCE THE FORCING INCREASES.
WILL MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHORTEN UP THE WINDOW OF WHEN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WELL. THE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE CLOUDS TO START SCATTERING OUT AND HAVE SHOWN THIS FOR KRST.
THIS SHOULD HAPPEN RIGHT ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOR KLSE SO WILL LET THE
NEXT FORECAST DETAIL THAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1015 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX
ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM
COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN
END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS
IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7-
H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/
LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A
BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX
AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE
MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE
THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT
EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS
COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SHOULD BREAK OUT HERE SHORTLY LATER
THIS MORNING FROM MVFR CEILINGS. SHOULD BE NO WEATHER IMPACTS TO
AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT THAT COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO KRWL.
WILL WATCH THIS FURTHER TO SEE IF ANY IMPACTS DEVELOP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH