Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/05/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
811 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND COMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE FINAL TRAILING SHORTWAVE AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BUT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE LOST THEIR CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS AND HAVE BECOME MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE SINCE SUNSET. THE BACK EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AS OF 03Z ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED BETWEEN BLYTHE AND YUMA. HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK. IN THE INTERIM...POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH COLD AIR RAPIDLY ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW RIGHT AS THE PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 6000FT BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. TEMPS ALREADY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW INHERITED VALUES /LIKELY DUE TO ONGOING RAINFALL/. LOWS LOOK REASONABLE BUT I ACCELERATEDTHE COOLDOWN A BIT AND KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S/UPPER 40S. DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ONCE RAINFALL COMES TO AN END. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BUT A RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECLINE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM DIGS BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY POPS. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... SHOWERS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. RADAR TRENDS NOW INDICATING DRY WEATHER ARRIVING BETWEEN 04Z-06Z WITH CIGS RAPIDLY IMPROVING OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY SWINGING AROUND OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...LEINS/AJ AVIATION...LEINS FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WE`LL THEN SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY BUT THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS HEADING THIS WAY AND IS HINTING AT A LITTLE MORE WEATHER FOR SE AZ THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS INCLUDING THE 02Z HRRR...00Z NAMDNG25 AND GFS ARE SHOWING A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND FIELDS AND OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTH. IT ISN`T MUCH BUT IT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR PRECIP CHANCES. AS A RESULT WE`VE TWEAKED SURFACE DEW POINT AND RH FIELDS UP AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SUBSEQUENTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE TROUGH TO WORK WITH...WE`VE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS MASSAGING QPF VALUES UP. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND .10 TO .35 AND MOUNTAINS .4 TO .7 OR SO. STORM TOTAL SNOW ABOVE 7K FEET AROUND 3-4 INCHES FOR MT LEMMON...4-5 INCHES FOR MT GRAHAM AND 5-7 INCHES FOR HANNAGAN MEADOW IN THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS (NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES) WITH THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT. OTHERWISE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING COLDER WITH MUCH OF COCHISE AND PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM COUNTIES LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE FREEZE. RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A STRONG WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/05Z. SKC CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 03/14Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SURFACE WIND AFT 03/14Z...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL AND SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS BY 03/20Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AFT 03/22Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NORMAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MEYER/LADER VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. 100KT JET SETS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT PROVIDING DEEP VERTICAL FORCING. BETTER FORCING OCCURS OVER THE NW CWA THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EASTERN UTAH. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -4C OVER EASTERN UTAH BY 12Z FOR SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR 7000FT. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 8000FT AND ABOVE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7K TO 8K FEET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL ALL LEND THEMSELVES TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR AND RAP REALLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS BAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN IT FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST. THESE MODELS NOT APPEARING TO TAKE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO ACCOUNT THOUGH NAM/GFS LOOK LIKE THEY DO. EITHER WAY...EXPECT HIGH ELEVATIONS TO SEE CONTINUED SNOWFALL WITH SOME LULLS FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING NRN MTNS. THESE MTNS REALLY PREFER NW FLOW AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SW TO W FLOW SO SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IFFY THERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY OVERRIDE WIND DIRECTION AND PRODUCE WARNING AMT SNOWFALL HOWEVER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. GFS HIGHLIGHTING A DEFORMATION ZONE TO SET UP OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS THURSDAY MORNING WHILE NAM SHOWS NOTHING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BECAUSE IF THE ZONE SETS UP...A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY PRECIP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE DIVIDE BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER. FOR FRIDAY...A QUICK WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM ID/MT AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND FLATTOPS BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...EXPECT A RETURN TO SUN WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ENJOY THE WEEKEND! TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACNW AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PROBABLY SOME SNOW. ANOTHER WINDY DAY POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER. NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED ATTM AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW FAVORING THAT AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT STORM SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY TO 50 KTS...FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TODAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS OVER WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE -TSRA...WHICH COULD GENERATE SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 070-080 MSL WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. MOUNTAINS BECOME OBSCURED WITH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-007- 009-011-017>021. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-017. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-008-014. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-013-018-019. UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-025- 027>029. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...PF/JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
415 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 415 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN EXHAUSTED. THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP... DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES... WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S. DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S. THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY... TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN. MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S CWA-WIDE. FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE REGION. FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF. SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY. WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001. AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY. AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT. EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM) INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID) AND AT KPSF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN. A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT RH VALUES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE WIND TODAY WILL START OUT CALM...INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH...THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEFORE DISSIPATING TO CALM TONIGHT. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY BUT THAT WOULD BE EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS ON THE WATERSHEDS. OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN EXHAUSTED. THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP... DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES... WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S. DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S. THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY... TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN. MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S CWA-WIDE. FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE REGION. FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF. SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY. WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001. AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY. AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT. EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM) INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID) AND AT KPSF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN. A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS ON THE WATERSHEDS. OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 100 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RETREATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF A VERY WEAK WARM WAS WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THERE WERE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF I-90. WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE REGION...LITTLE OR NO WIND...AND THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...TEMPERATURES IN SOME CASES HAD DROP NEAR THEIR PREVIOUS ADVERTISED MINIMUMS. WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSING IN ON THE TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL NOT LIKELY DROP A WHOLE LOT MORE AS SOME PATCHY FOG FORMS. DID ADD MORE PATCHY FOG WITH THIS UPDATE. NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OUTLYING AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY NOVEMBER DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SOME EARLY CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FAIRLY GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING FURTHER...ALTHOUGH SINCE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SHALLOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BRINGING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND MILDER MIN TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WITH WILL TURN BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A SLOW DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSUE...AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES IN SPOTS...FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT OR UP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WE STILL THINK MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE DECIDED TO ADD SOME TEMPO IFR FOG TO KGFL (WHICH ALREADY BRIEFLY SOME) AS WELL AS KPSF FROM 08Z-12Z. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 40...BUT WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BOTH PLACES INTO THE UPPER 30S. OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) INDICATED NO FOG ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM) INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID) AND COULD FORM AT KPSF. FOR NOW...WE CONTINUED WITH MIFG ONLY AT THE KALB AND KPOU BUT THEY ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS EITHER. CONFIDENCE AT BEST IS ONLY MODERATE THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM AT BOTH THOSE TAF SITES. PLEASE CHECK BACK AROUND DAYBREAK IF PLANNING TO FLY OUT OF ANY OF OUR AIRPORTS AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE FOG COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP BY THEN. VFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL START FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION 5-10KTS TURNING TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS. OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
858 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... 01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS EVENING. MAIN FEATURE THAT STICKS OUT IS A DEEP/SHARP TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR- CORNERS REGION. THE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ARE FORCING FURTHER AMPLIFICATION TO THE DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS RIDGE IS CERTAINLY IN CONTROL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WILL BE HELPING TO KEEP OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROTECT OUR REGION FROM THIS ENERGY AND OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT TIMES DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...THIS IMPULSE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION. THURSDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...AND THEREFORE...NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. SOME AREAS OF LOWER STATUS/FOG VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. H5 HEIGHTS OVER 590DM (VERY HIGH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER) WILL CONTINUE WITH 850MB BETWEEN 15-17C. MAKES YOU REALLY WONDER WHAT MONTH IT IS. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL ADD UP TO ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY END UP IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IT A BIT DRIER ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND LIKELY LESS THAN TODAY (WHICH WAS NOT MUCH). OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL REANALYZE THE EXPECTED COLUMN...AND MAY END UP ADDING IN A 20% POP IN A FEW PLACES...BUT GENERALLY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE ON THURSDAY. JUST A VERY WARM EARLY NOVEMBER DAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THIS MID EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MAINLY CEILING RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z FOR KLAL/KTPA/KPIE AND KSRQ...WHERE LOW END MVFR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE BETWEEN 09-13Z. LOWER CONDITIONS INTO IFR ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND UPDATES WITH THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE ARE POSSIBLE. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOST ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 89 73 88 / 10 0 10 20 FMY 75 90 72 89 / 10 0 0 20 GIF 73 88 71 88 / 10 0 10 20 SRQ 74 89 73 87 / 10 0 0 20 BKV 72 89 69 88 / 10 0 0 20 SPG 75 88 74 86 / 10 0 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
912 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Clearing has developed in most of central and southeast Illinois this evening, which should facilitate the start of fog formation, but most likely not dense fog. That will be mainly due to the fact that mid-level clouds are still poised to move north into our area from southern IL and SE Missouri. RAP forecast soundings show a moist layer around 4k feet through the night, so believe that clouds will still eventually cover much of the area by sunrise. Have updated sky conditions to reduce evening clouds, then increase after midnight. HRRR vis forecast shows dense fog mainly SE of I-70 later tonight. MVN has already dipped to 1/4SM in fog, which matches the latest HRRR output well. Have added areas of fog to the SE counties after midnight, and lingered it to 14z. Will watch that area closely for possible need for a dense fog advisory. Temps and dewpoints still appear on track, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Updated forecast info will be available shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main short-term forecast concern will be potential fog development tonight. Widespread dense fog from early this morning dissipated by midday, followed by partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Exact degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question: however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. In addition, widespread cloud cover streaming northward from Arkansas/western Tennessee should result in mostly cloudy skies tonight. Given the cloud cover and slightly stronger winds due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching front, do not think fog will become as widespread or dense as it has lately. As a result, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast for tonight with low temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper ridge over MS valley. Soundings continue to show significant moisture below strong inversion, but with more gradient and cloudiness, fog will be less than previous nights (as mentioned previously). Moisture flow will continue ahead of deepening frontal system progged to move out of rockies. This will bring pcpn into area ahead of the front. Instability will be limited, but strength of upper support and wind flow will make some gusty winds possible with the passage of some of the stronger showers/storms. Models similar in movement of front on Thursday night, with decreasing clouds by Friday after front moved through. Cooler high pressure in control through weekend. Next chance of pcpn with the next shortwave moving through Midwest midweek. Models differ though on timing of this front, so chance pops in the forecast for Tues night to Wed will need to be refined later. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main concerns are on fog potential and the progression and coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. RAP soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet for the bulk of the night at the terminal sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent the development of dense fog tonight, but any areas that seen any period of clearing will likely see at least MVFR fog develop. The supporting items for fog are that the airmass is relatively unchanged and a moist low-level flow will continue. The issues against fog are any cloud cover along with slightly stronger southerly winds in advance of an approaching cold front, which will create more mixing to prevent the widespread low vsbys noted the past few nights. Have continued with only 3-4SM vsbys between 04z and 16z. After that, winds will become southwesterly and increase to between 10 and 15kt by late Thursday morning, with any showers holding off until later in the day, and mainly just near PIA and SPI after 21-22z. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Goetsch AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main short-term forecast concern will be potential fog development tonight. Widespread dense fog from early this morning dissipated by midday, followed by partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Exact degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question: however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. In addition, widespread cloud cover streaming northward from Arkansas/western Tennessee should result in mostly cloudy skies tonight. Given the cloud cover and slightly stronger winds due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching front, do not think fog will become as widespread or dense as it has lately. As a result, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast for tonight with low temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper ridge over MS valley. Soundings continue to show significant moisture below strong inversion, but with more gradient and cloudiness, fog will be less than previous nights (as mentioned previously). Moisture flow will continue ahead of deepening frontal system progged to move out of rockies. This will bring pcpn into area ahead of the front. Instability will be limited, but strength of upper support and wind flow will make some gusty winds possible with the passage of some of the stronger showers/storms. Models similar in movement of front on Thursday night, with decreasing clouds by Friday after front moved through. Cooler high pressure in control through weekend. Next chance of pcpn with the next shortwave moving through Midwest midweek. Models differ though on timing of this front, so chance pops in the forecast for Tues night to Wed will need to be refined later. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main concerns are on fog potential and the progression and coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. RAP soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet for the bulk of the night at the terminal sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent the development of dense fog tonight, but any areas that seen any period of clearing will likely see at least MVFR fog develop. The supporting items for fog are that the airmass is relatively unchanged and a moist low-level flow will continue. The issues against fog are any cloud cover along with slightly stronger southerly winds in advance of an approaching cold front, which will create more mixing to prevent the widespread low visbys noted the past few nights. Have continued with only 3-4SM visbys between 04z and 16z. After that, winds will become southwesterly and increase to between 10 and 15kt by late Thursday morning, with any showers holding off until later in the day, and mainly just near PIA and SPI after 21-22z. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Goetsch AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night, and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57 has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high temperatures around 70 degrees. Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the California coast, which will eject toward the area starting Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity minimal. The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week. However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period and beyond. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery, but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly flow with some variability under the ridge. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...BAK AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery, but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly flow with some variability under the ridge. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1103 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon. Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
919 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... FOG HAS SLOWED ITS MORNING MARCH NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT DOES REMAIN DENSE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE VISIBILITY DROPS WERE NOTED EARLIER INCLUDING OUT OUR WINDOW. EVEN AT 9 AM...WEBCAMS INDICATE REDUCTIONS FROM CLEAR VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OVER JUST A FEW MILE DISTANCE ACROSS BOTH DUPAGE AND WILL COUNTIES. WHILE THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY...THE VERY GRADUAL TREND IN SEVERAL WEBCAMS AND THROUGH REPORTS HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT...SO THE COLLABORATED PLAN IS TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS INDICATED ON THE 12Z ILX RAOB IS ONLY AROUND 10 KT AND WITH WARMING AND MIXING ENSUING...THIS GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND HASTEN...LIKELY QUICKEST AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FOG DECK /AROUND I-57/. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM NEAR BLOOMINGTON NORMAL AIRPORT INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 1700 FT THICK WHICH LIKELY SPEAKS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE TOUGHEST TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN THIS AREA BY QUITE A BIT. EVEN IF HOLES DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE AMOUNT OF TIME FOR WARMING IS NOT THAT GREAT HERE IN NOVEMBER. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID 70 READINGS. DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO NEAR THE WATER TEMPERATURE READINGS...BUT THINKING ANY FOG OVER SHORE AREAS WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF TO AFTER DARK. && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND 1/4SM VSBY. KMD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2 MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY. * MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WEST OF THE TERMIANALS. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z... THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST WEST OF ORD. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN AREA REMAINS WEST WITH NO/LIMITED EASTWARD EXPANSION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE LATER TODAY...WITH STRATUS/FOG BEING MORE PREVALENT SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. HAVE PULLED THE DENSE FOG FROM ORD/MDW. KMD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH THAT VLIFR FOG/STRATUS STAYS WEST OF ORD/MDW. * MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW IN SPECIFIC TIMING. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
818 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE...505 AM CST HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND 1/4SM VSBY. KMD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2 MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY. * MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
532 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... 505 AM CST HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
503 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon. Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z. Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through the period with speeds of around 10kts of less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Already updated forecast for rest of the night. Dense fog and very low clouds are advecting into the area from the south, spreading north/west and east some. Based on HiRes models this will continue to spread out across most of central and east central...and southeast Illinois rest of the night and into tomorrow morning...during the morning commute. Advisory does not include PIA or BMI, or northern areas of central IL, but will be closely monitoring the area as it spreads north to see how north it could get. HiRes models suggest it will cover all of the CWA, but unsure at this time. If confidence increases, then another update and an addition to the advisory will be needed at some point. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints, the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest. Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night progresses with observation of the crossover drop. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends, followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated precipitation. Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear. Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage. The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1 inch of rain in most areas. Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon. Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though, so a slow warming trend is expected next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z. Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through the period with speeds of around 10kts of less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW POTENTIAL PROBLEMS CREEPING INTO SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAINLY STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD COUPLED WITH ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY. FIRST ISSUE WILL BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK JUST TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT HIRES MODEL RH PROGS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST IT COULD CREEP CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE MIXING THIS MORNING. FOR NOW STAYING WITH CLEAR FORECAST PER COLLABORATION AND WILL MONITOR GOES FOG PRODUCT WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE WARM STRATUS CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REACH LOWER 70S ALL AREAS AND SHOULD TACK ON A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY READINGS WITH ANOTHER 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED. TONIGHT WILL BEGIN CLEAR BUT QUESTIONS DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND POSSIBLE MOVEMENT NORTH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IL. NAM AND GFS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH INDICATE THIS SCENARIO. NAM12 DOES APPEAR OVERDONE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS RH IN POTENTIAL SOURCE REGION OF KENTUCKY. WITH THAT SAID THERE IS SUPPORT FROM GFS WHICH ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH MET AND MAV MOS INDICATING CATEGORY 1 FOR VIS TOWARD 12Z BUT NO INDICATION OF STRATUS. WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TODAY IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WOULD BE A BIT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT TO AT LEAST REPRESENT SOME INCREASE TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION. WOULD EXPECT HIRES MODELS TO SHOW MORE DETAIL LATER TODAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT AND GENERALLY AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NOAM...PLACING OUR REGION IN DEEP S/SW FLOW. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS IS THAT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS RETURNING AS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN TENUOUS MOISTURE DEPTHS AND CPD`S BUT MAY HAVE TO GO HIGHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPORADIC QPF GIVEN INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC FIELDS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE A BIT MEAGER FOR HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION...EVEN ON THURSDAY. A STRAY SPRINKLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS POINT. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 70-LOWER 70S GIVEN VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LATEST CONSENSUS BLENDS STILL IN THAT RANGE. RECORD HIGHS OF 74-76 LIKELY JUST OUT OF REACH BUT THURSDAY`S RECORD AT KFWA OF 73 (SET IN 2008 AND 1978) MAY BE IN DANGER IF WE MANAGE TO GET SOME SUN. A FEW RECORD WARM LOWS COULD ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY. OTHER MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RAIN AND WIND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP TIMING AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT THAT. WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED AS 50+ KT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS HIGHLY EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF ROBUST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WITH 925MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX THESE WINDS DOWN. SURFACE GRADIENT ALSO VERY STRONG AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS ON ITS TREK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY AND SOME GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. COOL AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1237 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL HELP AMPLIFY MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WEST INTO THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE OF SAME INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY (UNSEASONABLY MILD/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/DRY). COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WITHIN INVERSION...BUT COVERAGE/IMPACT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE GRIDS...WITH NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING PER LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHY OF RECORD VALUES FOR NOV 3 (76 AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA). && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA HOLDING HIGHS BACK A LITTLE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW KEPT WARM HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL BLEND. RECORD HIGHS ARE GENERALLY 73 TO 76. A LARGE PIECE OF ENERGY AS AN UPPER TROF WILL EJECT EAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MATCHES EARLIER GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO AT BEST MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WINDS MAY BE MORE THEN ENOUGH TO CHANNEL DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS EVEN THROUGH A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY BETWEEN 10 AM EST NORTHWEST TO 7 PM EST SOUTHEAST OVER LIMA. ALSO...GFS NON/CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS ARE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/58 MPH...SO IT IS LIKELY SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE... DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1202 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WITH LINGERING STRATOCU DECK ACRS GENERALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...CHALLENGING TEMP FCST AT HAND FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE GRADIENT POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST-TO- NORTHWEST WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE SUNNY WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. STILL EXPECT THE SUNNY AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DESPITE WEAKER MIXING REGIME AND THERMAL ROBBING HIGHER SFC DPTS THAN YESTERDAY. BUT AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL IL IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT MAY BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AND DECAY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES... BUT THEIR EFFECT ON TEMPERING HIGHS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME OF DAY. ..12.. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI VSBY AT LAMONI. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY. TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY ON... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY. ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHALLENGING FCST WITH A WIDE VARIABILITY POSSIBLE WITHIN A RATHER SMALL AREA OF THE TAF REGION. AREAS THAT HAD THE IFR TO LIFR CLOUDS/FOG SUCH AS THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES MAY BE PRONE AGAIN FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE. SOME OF THE NEW RUN HIRES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT OTHER MORE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUD DECK FIELDS WILL DEVELOP MORE TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHICH COULD ALLOW CID AND DBQ TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING OR MAYBE WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER MVFR FOG AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE SAME MODELS ALSO KEEPING MLI AND DBQ VFR UNTIL MID WED MORNING WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SEEP INTO THE VCNTY FROM THE WEST. BUT AM WORRIED WITH THE LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE THAT AT LEAST BRL AND MLI MAY GET NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE IDEA OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-11 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF THEY CAN STAY 7-8 KTS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...12 SYNOPSIS...DMD SHORT TERM...DMD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...03/18Z ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DECENT MIXING WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE STRATUS FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA I EXPECT LOW STRATUS/FOG TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...03/12Z ISSUED AT 550 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT AREA OF ST EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST IA TOWARD KDSM WHILE LIFR VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA SINCE 10Z. EXPECT FG/BR TO BEGIN BURNING OFF AFT 1430Z. STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AFT 16Z WITH WINDS INCREASING MOST AREAS AFT 17Z...MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. AFT 04Z MAY SEE STRATUS/BR REFORM OVER THE AREA. /REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
525 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI VSBY AT LAMONI. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY. TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY ON... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY. ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 RAPIDLY ADVANCING AREA OF LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS REACHED KBRL AND KMLI AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH AIRPORTS THROUGH 15Z. BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KCID. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT. IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU- CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM- ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE. MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK- SCOTLAND. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DMD SHORT TERM...DMD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...DMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...03/06Z ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS CURRENT MO/IL STRATUS EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO KS/MO AND BUILDING INTO IA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ITS PROGRESSION SO HAVE RELEGATED CIGS TO KDSM/KOTM FOR NOW. HAVE STARTED WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES...BUT IFR OR LIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR SLY WIND GUSTS. MODELS HINT THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO TUE EVENING AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY NOT THERE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME RANGE AS OF YET. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT 10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES. OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40 MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80 TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60 ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40 TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70 GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50 LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
951 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 945 PM UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES DOWNEAST, AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS IN A FEW SPOTS. PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM IN THE NORTH IS VERY UNDERWHELMING. AT MOST A FEW LUCKY SPOTS COULD GET 0.01 INCH OF RAIN. SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST VERY LIGHT RAIN AND NO MIXED PRECIP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM MILLINOCKET NORTHEAST BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST OF MILLINOCKET. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WITH DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW, BEGINNING DOWNEAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG LATER THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR MARINE...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
607 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 6 PM UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS HOUR. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG LATER THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR MARINE...MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING. DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD. I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY.. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MEASURABLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY BUT MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET. SOUTH WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN. THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...04 MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
619 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE INFLUENCE. WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE. WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 619 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER AT CMX AND WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LSZ246>251-265>267. GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1044 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 14Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. 925MB STREAMLINES SHOW A TEXTBOOK COL REGION CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES DRAGGING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION (12Z 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 11C/13C AT APX/GRB RESPECTIVELY). MID CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING NORTHWEST/ SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD/EASTERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME LINGERING FOG HANGING TOUGH AROUND ISQ. NO BIG ISSUES LOOKING AHEAD TO THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND OVER EASTERN UPPER LIFT NORTH AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES AND MID LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL BE A WARM DAY EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING...HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT. TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S... ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD... WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S. THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT LOCATION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
631 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT. TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S... ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD... WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S. THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT LOCATION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT. TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S... ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD... WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S. THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S. TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING - SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR TOMORROW/S FORECAST. THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT... MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20- 30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15- 25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
915 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED FOR THE TIME AT KDLH...BUT KCOQ WAS AT 0.5SM. SURFACE WINDS AT KDLH/KMZH WERE SOUTH AS OF 03Z...AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ELIMINATING THE MARINE INFLUENCE. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND IF VSBYS REMAIN NEAR WHAT THEY ARE NOW...WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP DENSE FOG A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LIFTING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE. WE WILL TRIM BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND JUST MENTION IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PULSE UP AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE PERSISTED MUCH OF TODAY WITH ONLY A HINT OF CLEARING APPARENT AROUND PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF AN E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS...WHICH HAVE SEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE EAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT AND LIFT THE FOG AROUND THE DULUTH/SUPERIOR AREA...BUT JUST PUT THE FOCUS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND TO 8 AM FOR THE NORTH SHORE THE CONTINUOUS PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS RESPECTIVELY...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP PRIME THE MID LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDES BROAD LARGE-SCALE LIFT...IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF 700-500MB CAPE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODE EVEN FURTHER LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT OVER N-CENTRAL MN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 SUMMARY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN...EITHER OF RAIN OR SNOW...IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...AND DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK AND TIMING...COULD BRING RAINS TO THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR A LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK. FRIDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN CLOUDY AND COOL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLAKES AND LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WATERS AND ELY AREAS. INCREASED WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 MPH OR MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 40 OVER NE MINNESOTA...AND REACH THE LOW 40S IN NW WISCONSIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...SO LEANED A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE IN THE LOW 30S. SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WNW FLOW AND BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING BACK TO SUNNY SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THOUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES....BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. BREEZY SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AND THE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH DAYS. TUESDAY...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THE TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO FILTER COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 LOW STRATUS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING THAT HAS MOVED QUICKLY NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS STRATUS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH THE FOG MOST DENSE FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO THE NORTH SHORE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WE LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT MAY ADD LATER. SOME LLWS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WE HAVE THAT IN THE KHYR TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 49 57 36 40 / 40 70 20 0 INL 48 49 34 37 / 60 80 60 10 BRD 53 56 35 42 / 50 70 20 0 HYR 45 58 38 42 / 30 60 70 10 ASX 50 61 42 43 / 10 40 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ037. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...TENTINGER LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND 950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4 KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL INDUCE A NE WIND OFF THE LAKE AND COMBINE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT TO SUPPORT AN INVERSION WHICH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE DLH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 45 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70 INL 44 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70 BRD 51 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60 HYR 50 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70 ASX 46 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-146- 147. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...TENTINGER AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY... DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY LIFR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF IFR THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT A BROAD SWATH FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO EASTERN TEXAS. SSE FLOW WILL BRING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MN AND WESTERN WI. 12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD IFR/LIFR...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE LATER WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IT MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY BY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE SSE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LITTLE RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. KMSP...SKC EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. MIGHT BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15. MAIN ISSUE IS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIFR CEILINGS. 12Z MODELS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF IFR THAN THE 00Z/06Z MODELS... AND CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH INDICATE THIS TREND IS CORRECT. LOOKING AT 07Z OR SO FOR THIS TO DEVELOP...BUT THAT COULD VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS. THE INVERSION WILL HELP KEEP IFR THROUGH WED MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW. FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 FOCUSED ON CLOUD COVER FOR THIS UPDATE. CONCERNED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD...FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODELED CEILING...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...ARE INDICATING HUMID LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY RESULT IN OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER MOVING INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. THOSE THREE SEEM TO CORRESPOND PRETTY WELL TO WHERE THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL OVERCAST LAYER OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO MY CONFIDENCE LIES WITH THESE THREE MODELS. HOWEVER...THINK THE 4 KM NAM MAY BE TOO FAST BRINGING THE CLOUD COVER IN...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE A RECIPE FOR FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS AREA...BUT WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS THREAT WHEN MAKING UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE 4 KM NAM. THE MODEL IS INDICATING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN RAPID SATURATION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE 4 KM NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WHICH SATELLITE SHOWS STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD. UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AT 08Z. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED TO BE BISECTING NE MN FROM NW WI. SFC WIND WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NE MN. PATCHY FOG AND CIRRUS WAS OVER NW WI. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL DO ITS TYPICAL BENDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE COOLER/DENSE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LAKE. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE LAKE AS A RESULT. WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH STIFF WAA THROUGH THE DAY AND H85 TEMPS REACHING TO NEAR 10C ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...TO THE TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST/WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND THE ONSET OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NE MN FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT CLIPS THIS AREA IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS AS A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOST SFC LOW. AS SUCH...WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON THE SW FLOW. WEAK PIECES OF EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CHECK...EXCEPT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR A STALLED FRONT. A DRIZZLE SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS SITUATION AND HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. THIS IS SEEN IN THE QPF FIELDS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS. THE ECMWF IS FAVORING MORE OF A SHOWER EVENT...BUT IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BEYOND... WITH CHANCES OF NOVEMBER THUNDER IN THE CWA AS WELL AS WINTRY MIXES AND SNOWFLAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 00Z THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... STACKED FROM THE SFC TO 700MB MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF MINNESOTA... WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO COLORADO. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LOFT IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT... WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 8 G/KG IN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SPC SREF FCST SOUNDING INDICATES THERE MAY BE MUCAPES NEAR 400 J/KG (WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT HIGH... BUT IT IS A BIT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR) JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA AFTER 18Z. ALSO THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN IN THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY. THEREFORE... HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON THE GFS`S FCST BOUNDARY LAYERED INSTABILITY... WHICH ENDED UP BEING A BIT WEST OF SPC`S OUTLOOK... WHICH INCLUDES MAINLY HINCKLEY UP TO DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE... AND EAST TO OUR NW WISCONSIN COUNTIES. BY 00Z FRIDAY... THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE... BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHLAND BY MID-DAY FRIDAY... AND WILL HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY... ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 DEGREES. HOWEVER A NEW DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND IT... AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE... RAIN ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW... THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SMALL TO MEASURE. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A CHANGE WILL COME SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM... AND SUNSHINE ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN... NEARING HIGHS OF 50 AND LOWS NEAR 40. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF 11Z DUE TO LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL FOG. THESE ANKLE-DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SHOULD HOLD STEADY AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT AFTER 15Z. TEMPORARY VFR WILL COME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AS STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER... BUT DEVELOPING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 53 44 59 54 / 0 10 10 20 INL 50 44 56 44 / 0 20 20 40 BRD 63 53 63 48 / 0 10 10 30 HYR 65 51 64 54 / 0 10 10 20 ASX 59 43 63 54 / 0 10 10 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>143-146- 147. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...MCLOVIN AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 720 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD WERE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS TONIGHT. WE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG EARLIER AS KINL WAS DOWN TO 2.5SM AND FOG WAS REPORTED AT KD25. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S. THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH PTYPE. THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. WE STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE EVENING MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF LAKE ON UP THE NORTH SHORE LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ144- 145. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...STEWART AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile. It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10 degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively high surface dew points for early November. GKS .LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area, into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck. This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may not be quite a persistent as today. Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud trends become more clear. The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern remains with the storm system approaching the region on Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday, but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front, and deep moisture all interact over the region. Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges across the area during the late evening and overnight hours. Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern attm. Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm. Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into the area for the start of the new work week. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1027 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Visibilities should continue to gradually improve in UIN and the St Louis metro area late this morning and this afternoon. Seeing erosion of the stratus and fog west of UIN and west-southwest of the St Louis metro area on the latest satellite images. Will likely have a least a brief period of VFR conditions late this afternoon as the shallow, thin stratus clouds scatter out due to daytime heating, drying and mixing. Stratus and fog should redevelop across much of the area late this evening and overnight and continue through much of Wednesday morning. Weak sely surface winds will continue on the western periphery of the surface ridge. Specifics for KSTL: Visibilities will continue to improve late this morning and this afternoon with the cloud ceiling slowly rising. It appears that the stratus clouds will likely scatter out late this afternoon. Status and fog should redevelop late this evening and overnight with abundant shallow surface/boundary layer moisture. IFR conditions should improve to VFR conditions again Wednesday afternoon as the s-sely surface wind strengthens to around 8 kts. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 54 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30 Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30 Columbia 53 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50 Jefferson City 53 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50 Salem 55 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30 Farmington 54 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
545 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES FILLS THIS EVENING AND LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. STARTING WITH TONIGHT...WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH SFC DPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SURGE SOUTH AGAIN AFTER DARK...WITH WIDEPSREAD STRATUS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS OUR REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDES NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW TO NE NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES...AND THE DRY SLOT REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCOUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOT AND AS COOLER...DRIER AIR ADVECT SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT VERY PROMISING...AND HAVE KEPT OVERALL CHANCES PRIMARILY AROUND 20 PERCENT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY IN PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BY AFTN...THE LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE FOR TEMPERATURES...WE ARE LOOKING FOR VERY MILD WARM READINGS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...WHICH ARE ACTUALLY CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH DIURNAL RISE IN READINGS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING 5 TO 10 DEGREES AT BEST FROM MORNING LOWS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 NO "MAJOR" CHANGES MADE VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE A PREDOMINANTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE LIMITED SHORT TERM RAIN CHANCES COVERED ABOVE...AND BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIP-MAKER ARRIVES MID- WEEK NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...HERE ARE A FEW OF THE MAIN CHANGES/MESSAGES WORTH HIGHLIGHTING: 1) HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO SOME WESTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LEGITIMATE SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN TO SOUTHERN ZONES (MAINLY IN KS) ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST ONE MODEL (ECMWF) SUGGESTS A PESKY BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN COULD EXTENT FARTHER NORTH INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL (INCLUDING TRI CITIES)...BUT GIVEN THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY OPTED TO CONFINE THESE "NEW" POPS TO ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES THAT APPEAR MORE FAVORED. 2) TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM THE RECENT/ONGOING WAY-ABOVE-NORMAL "HEAT"...TO A MUCH MORE "NEAR- NORMAL" REGIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MID-50S AND LOW-60S IN MOST AREAS ON MOST DAYS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-WARMEST DAY OF THESE 6 LOOKS TO BE KIND OF A TOSS-UP BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 60S MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY LAST DAY OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY (WEDNESDAY) IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-COOLEST. VERY PRELIMINARILY...WE ARE ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S RANGE WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT IT COULD (KEY WORD "COULD") TREND 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS IF TIMING TRENDS REGARDING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT HOLD. 3) PRECIPITATION-WISE...WANT TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THERE IS NO MENTION OF THE SEASON`S FIRST SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY...IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT MAYBE (KEY WORD "MAYBE") A FEW FLAKES COULD TRY MIXING IN WITH RAIN SOMETIME WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING IF PRECIP IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS IS SO VERY FAR FROM A "SURE THING" GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN NOT ONLY TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP WILL STILL BE A FACTOR BY THAT TIME ANYWAY. TIME WILL TELL... WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS A BIT CLOSER LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS... THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: AS THE PERIOD STARTS AT SUNSET...VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE-SCALE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE RAPIDLY DEPARTING ALL THE WAY TO AN INDIANA-LAKE SUPERIOR AXIS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A ROGUE SPRINKLE COULD AFFECT A VERY LIMITED AREA FOR A FEW HOURS RIGHT AWAY IN THE EVENING...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A FORECAST MENTION AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN AND TRANSITION TO LIGHT/WESTERLY AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP BACK TO MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER VALUES...AND AM AIMING LOW-MID 30S. FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: AS COVERED IN "BULLET POINT 1" ABOVE...OPTED TO INSERT SOME SMALL RAIN/SPRINKLE CHANCES IN TO WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERN ZONES AT NIGHT. IN THE MID- UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A POTENTIALLY NARROW ZONE OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS PROMPTING THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. MODELS CERTAINLY NOT IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT YET ON THE LIKELIHOOD/PLACEMENT OF RAIN...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AT LEAST A FORMAL 20 POP FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SURFACE...DAYTIME BREEZES GENERALLY 5-15 MPH FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH. UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE MONTH SO FAR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH MOST AREAS SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AIMED INTO THE MID-20S TO LOW 30S RANGE...BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANY PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME...AS ANY POSSIBLE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT BEFORE TEMPS DROP TOO FAR TO CAUSE ISSUES. SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS HERE...AS BROAD RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME BREEZES GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS MID- 50S. SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES...WITH THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FROM SATURDAY BEING NOTICEABLY BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS...WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 MPH LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BUMP UP VERSUS SATURDAY...AND HAVE MOST PLACES VERY CLOSE TO 60. MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: DRY STILL...BUT MID-UPPER FLOW STARTS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH STARTS DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGHS LOW-MID 60S. TUESDAY DAYTIME: THE LEADING EDGES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE INT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY PER CURRENT TIMING...BUT FORCING LOOKS TO STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO JUSTIFY A DRY FORECAST...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THAT EXISTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME COUNTIES. TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THESE VERY LAST 24 HOURS OF THE 7-DAY FEATURE A RETURN TO MODEST RAIN CHANCES AS A LARGE-SCALE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO AND/OR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF ON BRINGING THIS FORCING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY LINGER PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. AS SUGGESTED IN "BULLET POINT 3" ABOVE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SOME LIMITED SNOW POTENTIAL JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE NO MORE THAN A CHILLY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND A DECENT COLD FRONT AS WELL. IT`S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT HIGH TEMPS COULD TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 CEILINGS ARE IN QUESTION IN THIS LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PREDICTING WHEN/IF STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH MAKES IT UP HERE. I CHOSE TO GO WITH THE SHORT-RANGE HRRR MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING THE BEST...FROM WHAT CAN BE ASCERTAINED. THE HRRR PREDICTS THAT STRATUS SHOULD NOT HOLD ON FOR ALL NIGHT...BUT PERSISTENCE FROM RECENT WEATHER WOULD INDICATE LONGER...SO I WENT WITH THE HRRR FORECAST...WHICH TAKES US AT LEAST A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT...SO THIS CAN BE REVISITED IN THE NEXT FORECAST. ALSO...WIND SHEAR MAY BE CLOSE TO AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GUSTY WIND AT THE SURFACE WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS IN THIS FORECAST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT THUNDERSHOWERS/SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE SO LOW THAT THIS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...WITH WIND SPEEDS PERHAPS EVEN A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL SITUATION. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 348 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 A COUPLE NOTES REGARDING THIS REMARKABLE EARLY-NOVEMBER "HEAT": 1) ON THE MORE IMMEDIATE TERM...BOTH OF OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES (GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS) ARE SITTING ON RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS FOR TODAY, NOV 4TH. SO FAR BOTH SITES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT 56 DEGREES AND CURRENT RECORDS (BOTH SET IN 2008) ARE 51 AT GRI AND 53 AT HSI. ALTHOUGH THESE RECORDS TECHNICALLY HAVE TO "SURVIVE" THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO BECOME OFFICIAL...THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THEY WILL. 2) ON THE BIGGER STORY SCALE...IT SHOULD COME AS ABSOLUTELY ZERO SURPRISE THAT OUR SAME TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES ARE ESTABLISHING THEIR WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER ON RECORD THROUGH AT LEAST THESE FIRST 4 DAYS...AND VERY POSSIBLY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 5 DAYS OF NOVEMBER AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT`S ONLY A SMALL SAMPLE SIZE OF DAYS...HAVING 4+ CONSECUTIVE DAYS RUNNING 15+ DAYS ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL IS A PRETTY "BIG DEAL" NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT. THE LAST TIME THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF NOVEMBER AVERAGED REMOTELY AS WARM AS THIS YEAR WAS 7 YEARS AGO IN 2008...BUT EVEN THAT WAS NOT QUITE TO THIS MAGNITUDE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FAY LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH AVIATION...HEINLEIN CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WITH AREAS OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE 06Z-15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD IN 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT TIMES PRIOR TO 00Z AND AGAIN AFTER 15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS. ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB. SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH. TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED. BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 INTERESTING TAF PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST YES ESPECIALLY EAST OF KGRI AND WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION IN KGRI TAF. HAVE NOT WENT AS PESSIMISSTIC WITH KEAR JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND VSBYS MAY DROP ON EDGE OF STRATUS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DID NOT MENTION WIND SHEAR...BUT IF WINDS DO DROP OFF THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978 HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978 IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH. NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008 HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...FAY CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS. ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB. SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH. TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED. BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING) ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 TODAY: VFR SKC. S WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 27 KTS AFTER 16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH TONIGHT: VFR SKC TO START...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO MOVE IN AFTER 09Z. S WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND WILL CONT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978 HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978 IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH. NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008 HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...HALBLAUB CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRATUS/FOG CONT TO EXPAND NWD EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE MO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO KOMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT STAY E OF KOFK/KLNK. IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MRNG IF THESE CLOUDS GET INTO KOMA BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND PUSHES THE CLOUDS EWD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT AGAIN GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN ON THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN LATER TAF CYCLES. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 ...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TOMORROW ALTHO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DECREASES CONFIDENCE... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS. ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB. SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH. TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED. BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS. REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS... VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL 20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978 HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978 IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH. NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008 HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...HALBLAUB CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS MAY MOVE UP THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD REACH KOMA BY 12-13Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY SCATTERS OUT. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 6 OR 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING TO 15 TO 27 KNOTS BY 15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 TREMENDOUS FCST UNCERTAINTY THRU TUE NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FORMATION OF STRATUS. THE NAM...NAM NEST AND THE NSSL WRF SIMILATED FOG PRODUCT ALL FCST LOW STRATUS TO FORM AND RAPIDLY EXPAND NW INTO THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. ACTUAL FOG IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING OVER OK AND SE KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS. WHAT IS TROUBLING IS THE HRRR IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR THE REST OF THIS SHIFT AND THERE MAY NEED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FCST AS WE SEE HOW THIS SITUATION EVOLVES. AS MENTIONED IN THE ST SECTION BELOW...THERE IS HUGE BUST POTENTIAL ON SKY/TEMPS TODAY IF THIS STRATUS FORMS. IF IT DOES... THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE OUT THE WINDOW. UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS...WE WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON CHANGING THE FCST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 240 PM CST...THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN TIED AT BOTH THE GRAND ISLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ...AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW AND OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS EXPECTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS WE THEN WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST FALLING SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD. BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES...THIS FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE...DESPITE GOING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. OF NOTE...IF STRATUS AND FOG DOES DEVELOP...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD END UP BEING A BUST...AS THE MET GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE OF FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS LOW...AND FELT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE GOING WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20C. ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED IN THE MID TERM PERIODS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DEEP ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...THIS COULD COME INTO QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST NAM RUNS...AND ONLY THE NAM...SUGGESTS SOME STRATUS DECK TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ...AS THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE ECMWF DUMPING AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF QPF ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE BUT STILL SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MORE DEFINED THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...MILD RIDGING AND EVEN SOME ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S. SATURDAY MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS. REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS... VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL 20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD (YEAR) GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 (1978) HASTINGS: 56 78 79 (1978) && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...ROSSI LONG TERM...SALTZMAN AVIATION...HALBLAUB CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
610 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY... A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID- HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 610 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING WED... LASTING UNTIL LATE WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN START TO DROP TO IFR BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU... PERHAPS REACHING VFR LATE. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY... A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID- HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED... LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
308 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM / /... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY... TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED... LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM / /... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY... TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 235 PM MONDAY... THE REALLY BIG HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE WARMTH EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLOW CLEARING OUT PROCESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE HARD TO BREAK. THE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY... WITH ONLY 20-30 POP LINGERING FOR MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE... CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT BUT RANGE INTO THE LOWER 70S SE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH BREAKS. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECT A DISTINCT WARMING TREND AS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NE TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH... A WARM UP WILL BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THURSDAY... AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT SE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE FAVORED. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SW RETURN FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES. EXPECT HIGHS 75-80. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO BEGIN SATURDAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM - THEREFORE WE WILL SIMPLY BUMP UP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 50 PERCENT (JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY) IN THE FAVORED TIME PER THE BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS. THIS WOULD TARGET SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN 60+ (SOME OF WHICH MAY CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH MINS SAT-SUN). HIGHS SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION (55-65 NW TO SE)... AFTER A WEEKEND IN THE 70S SAT... AND 65-75 SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED... LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY. LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. FOR SITES KBIS AND KJMS LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF SITES KISN AND KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND BESIDES A FEW SCATTERED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MOST ALL TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012- 013. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. CONCENTRATED HIGHER POPS NORTH OF I94 AND ACROSS MY WEST AS PER LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. THIS AGREES WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW STRATUS ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ON THE HIGH SIDE MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS CONVERTED TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UPDATE ALL PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 LOCAL RADARS SHOW LARGE AREA OF RADAR RETURNS...INITIALLY REPRESENTING PRECIPITATION ALOFT...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST CONSHORT/HRRR NOT QUITE KEEPING UP WITH THE TRENDS SO ADJUSTED THE POPS HIGHER QUICKER. AS CLOUDS MOVING TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN LOW. LATEST 00Z NAM NEARLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, REACHING THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENTUALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. SO FAR FORECAST LOOKS OK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT...WHILE A LARGE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK H5 WAVES ACROSS THE REGION AS H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG (295K SURFACE) WITH THE BEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN A BAND MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POPS TONIGHT AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS STILL FOCUS THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WEST...AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THAT IDEA. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE THERMAL PROFILE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BRING MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN. IF THERE IS ANY SNOW...DO NOT THINK IT WILL ACCUMULATE MUCH AT ALL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THEN COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY...WITH ITS AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTH. AS THE INITIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS...A BROAD SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE THROUGH H850 KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING COLD ADVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOKING AT HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL. A WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY...AND 45 TO 55 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT MAINLY KISN AND POSSIBLY KMOT NOW THROUGH 12Z. PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS KBIS-KJMS. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATING LOW STRATUS...NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INCLUDING KMOT...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. LOW STRATUS LIFTS TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SITES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...CK LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
928 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AREA IS IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST RAP MODEL AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND MAINLY RESTRICTED TO JUST THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL HELP MITIGATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT IN THE WAA PATTERN HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTING UP ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACK DOWN A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT IT IS STILL IN THE 40-60 KNOT RANGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE PULLED UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PULL SOME MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE THEM FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY FALLING SATURDAY AS THE AREA FALLS INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO DEGREES C KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. MODELS THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS LEFT OVER VORTICITY FROM THE EXITING TROUGH AXIS LAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MONDAY MORNING THE EURO WRAPS UP THE LEFT OVER VORTICITY INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND QUICKLY PULLS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ CMC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY AS IT EJECTS THE LEFT OVER POSITIVE VORTICITY OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS THEN BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY EAST ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY. THE EURO IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS/CMC SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR PREVAILS TO START. BR MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL TOWARD ABNORMALLY HIGH DEW POINTS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT CVG AND LUK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT OTHER SITES THAT WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE INITIAL PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY. COOLER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND... BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY USHER IN A FEW DISTURBANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AGAIN PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST PARTS OF OUR CWA. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS WELL RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... DECK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN CWA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW TRYING TO SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO EASTERN CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER GREENBRIER COUNTY...HAVE MENTION OF THIS UP THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AREAS THAT ARE OUT FROM UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WARMED UP QUICKLY TODAY AND MAY RIVAL YESTERDAYS HIGHS. HOWEVER...UNDER THE CLOUDS...ITS TAKING A BIT LONGER WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW...AGAIN ACTING TO TEMPER THE WARMING A BIT...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST...EXCEPT 60S AT AND ABOVE 3000 FEET. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE ON FRIDAY. FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER...AND CREATING ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL FINALLY SINK FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND. DO HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL TO SUBTROPICAL FLOW THAT MAY DRIVE DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD INCREASE POPS OVER OUR CURRENT FORECAST. A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN INCREASED POPS FOR MID NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME AS A COLORADO LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SHIPPING A FRONT OVER THE REGION. THE EURO HANDLES THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY SLOWING THE SPEED DOWN AND SENDING IT STRAIGHT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PATCHES OF CLOUDS FROM 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET MOVING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NAM AND RAP MODELS OVERNIGHT COULD PREVENT OR DELAY FOG FORMATION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT STARTING AROUND 07Z. IN ADDITION...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW STRATO CU FORMATION OVERNIGHT AT BKW UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW. CODED MVFR CEILINGS AT BKW STARTING AT 06Z. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 12-13Z...WHILE LOW STRATO CU AT BKW COULD LAST LONGER...PERHAPS THROUGH 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN BKW MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN TONIGHT. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG IN EKN MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE RAIN/STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY. COOLER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND... BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY USHER IN A FEW DISTURBANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... DECK OF STRATUS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN CWA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS NOW TRYING TO SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO EASTERN CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER GREENBRIER COUNTY...HAVE MENTION OF THIS UP THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AREAS THAT ARE OUT FROM UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WARMED UP QUICKLY TODAY AND MAY RIVAL YESTERDAYS HIGHS. HOWEVER...UNDER THE CLOUDS...ITS TAKING A BIT LONGER WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY...ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW...AGAIN ACTING TO TEMPER THE WARMING A BIT...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST...EXCEPT 60S AT AND ABOVE 3000 FEET. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE ON FRIDAY. FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER...AND CREATING ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FRONT WILL FINALLY SINK FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND. DO HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL TO SUBTROPICAL FLOW THAT MAY DRIVE DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD INCREASE POPS OVER OUR CURRENT FORECAST. A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN INCREASED POPS FOR MID NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME AS A COLORADO LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SHIPPING A FRONT OVER THE REGION. THE EURO HANDLES THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY SLOWING THE SPEED DOWN AND SENDING IT STRAIGHT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PATCHES OF CLOUDS FROM 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET MOVING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NAM AND RAP MODELS OVERNIGHT COULD PREVENT OR DELAY FOG FORMATION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT STARTING AROUND 07Z. IN ADDITION...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW STRATO CU FORMATION OVERNIGHT AT BKW UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW. CODED MVFR CEILINGS AT BKW STARTING AT 06Z. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 12-13Z...WHILE LOW STRATO CU AT BKW COULD LAST LONGER...PERHAPS THROUGH 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN BKW MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN TONIGHT. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG IN EKN MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE RAIN/STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
618 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .AVIATION... 0500/0524 TAFS...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OKC/OUN MAINLY AFTER 12Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS VEER. BY 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE 04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAHALE && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/ESCARPMENT/I-35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING... .UPDATE...SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST PERTAINING TO OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS AND SEVERE THREATS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL PLACEMENT WERE TWEAKED PER LATEST TIME ENSEMBLES OF HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCE PERCENTAGES WERE BOOSTED ANOTHER 10% FOR THE 4AM-10AM RANGE IN THE MOSTLY LIKELY AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO THE THE EAST HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT AND NEAR I-35. THIS COULD INCLUDE BOTH THE SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN METRO AREAS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A LOW-END RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. && .DISCUSSION... INITIAL PLUME OF MID-LVL BAND ISENTROPIC INDUCED SHOWERS IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE ESCARPMENT REGION. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAWN WITH CURRENT PROGGED PWATS NEAR 1.7" INCREASING TOWARDS 2.1" BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z KCRP SOUNDING SAMPLED 2.11" WHICH WAS ABOVE THEIR MAXIMUM MOVING AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY 0.17" BELOW THEIR ALL- TIME DAILY MAXIMUM. OF NOTE...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL LAPS DATA SUGGEST NEAR 200 M2/S2 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR DAWN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO UTILIZE THIS ORGANIZATIONAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. A H7-H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSE IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS/NAM AND RAP TO BE TRANSITING THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT SAME TIME OF THE PWAT INCREASE BY 6AM. THIS LIFT INDUCING IMPULSE WITH NEAR 500-1000 J/KG CAPE AND CONTINUED 150-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH IN PRESENCE OF 40-45KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS IN THIS HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS SOME STRONG WINDS OF 40-60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SPC SSEO IS INDICATIVE OF AN UPTICK IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS THROUGH 6AM TIME- FRAME THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF POTENTIAL EVOLUTION. OF NOTE HAS BEEN THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE HRRR THAT AS SHIFTED THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE. THE RAP (WHICH DID WELL LOCATION WISE OF HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT IN THE 10/30 EVENT) DOES NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE HRRR BUT IS QUITE SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR REGION. THE HILL COUNTRY TO ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR IS THE PRIMARY ZONE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ AVIATION... FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY DURING THIS PERIOD. CIGS WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VIS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN RAIN STARTS AND STOPS. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BEGIN AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. AT AUS AND SAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW. THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 80 80 80 30 50 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 70 80 80 30 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 80 70 80 30 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 70 70 80 40 50 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT... EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY... LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE... WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... SEE EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... AT 8 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENING AND SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECOUPLE. CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT LINED UP FROM BRO TO FWD. 850 MB DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED TO 15C ACROSS S TX. 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON SE TX AND THIS FEATURE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE MSTR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TRIMMED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT LEFT THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS IT WAS. FEEL THE SFC-850 WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG THREAT SO TONED DOWN THE FOG WORDING A BIT. SFC DEW PTS NEAR 70 SO BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A BIT AS WELL. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 AVIATION... THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND SREF...SUGGEST THE PROBLEM WILL BE MORE LOW CEILINGS THAN FOG. HOWEVER...THE SREF FORECAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z NEAR KCXO AND KSGR...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KCXO. FELT THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KLBX. GUIDANCE AND THE MODELS SUGGESTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCXO BEFORE THE CEILINGS LIFTED TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 17Z -- THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SPECIFIC AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO BETTER PINPOINT CONDITIONS AT KCXO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES ARE LESS ELSEWHERE. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... A WARM AND HUMID EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NE AREAS. WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH M CLOUDY SKIES AND DW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT...BUT NOT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WE SAW LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE ACROSS N TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING TOMORROW ACROSS W/NW AREAS OF SE TX...THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GENERALLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE RAIN CHC ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHCS AGAIN INCREASING. 33/44 MARINE... THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL PARTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AND SEAS OVER WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 81 65 74 61 / 10 50 80 40 60 HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 70 79 65 / 10 30 50 60 60 GALVESTON (GLS) 73 78 73 78 69 / 10 10 40 50 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 && .AVIATION... THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND SREF...SUGGEST THE PROBLEM WILL BE MORE LOW CEILINGS THAN FOG. HOWEVER...THE SREF FORECAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z NEAR KCXO AND KSGR...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KCXO. FELT THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KLBX. GUIDANCE AND THE MODELS SUGGESTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCXO BEFORE THE CEILINGS LIFTED TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 17Z -- THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SPECIFIC AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO BETTER PINPOINT CONDITIONS AT KCXO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES ARE LESS ELSEWHERE. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... A WARM AND HUMID EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NE AREAS. WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH M CLOUDY SKIES AND DW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT...BUT NOT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WE SAW LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE ACROSS N TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING TOMORROW ACROSS W/NW AREAS OF SE TX...THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GENERALLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE RAIN CHC ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHCS AGAIN INCREASING. 33/44 MARINE... THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL PARTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AND SEAS OVER WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 81 65 74 61 / 20 50 80 40 60 HOUSTON (IAH) 68 81 70 79 65 / 10 30 50 60 60 GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 73 78 69 / 10 10 40 50 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH WITH FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OVER SW TAF SITES. T/TD SPREAD HAS NARROWED AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...STILL FEEL THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ UPDATE... SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE AND WHERE THE DENSEST FOG DEVELOPS... WITH HRRR AND SREF VISIBILITY PROGS GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTING AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS HOWEVER FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. HUFFMAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR E TEXAS. CLEARING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE SO WITH CLEAR SKIES THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG. POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE. OVERALL SHOULD HAVE QUIET CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BEGIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PLAIN THUR NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL AGAIN APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO AGAIN MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS BUT STILL KEEPING WATCH SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING. COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND DECREASE TEMPS FOR THE AREA. GFS IS STILL QUICK TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. LEARY TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AS FAST AS THE GFS SO WILL GRADUALLY DROP POPS OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO OVERDONE WITH RAIN CHANCES. 39 MARINE... LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW STILL ON TRACK TO DECREASE EVEN MORE AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE RESUMING AND THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (WEDS ONWARD). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT...STALLING AOA THE UPPER TX COAST ON FRI. SCEC FLAGS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THUR. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING THAT A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT (LATE SAT/EARLY SUN) COULD PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 78 61 77 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 58 78 62 78 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 69 74 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...14 AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
746 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUED TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY... CONTINUED MOIST FLOW ATOP A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MANY TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OOZ OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALTERNATING IN AND AROUND KROA/KBCB. CEILINGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR CATEGORY AT KLWB/KBLF...WHICH SAW A GREATER AMOUNT OF CLEARING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR FALL BELOW MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...WITH A FEW SOUTHEAST GUSTS AT KLWB/KBLF POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING BR FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLWB WHICH IS A BIT FURTHER OUT OF THE WEDGE AT THIS HOUR. LEFT FG IN THE TAF AT KBLF...AS THEY POSE THE BEST THREAT TO DROP INTO/BELOW IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...CLEARING EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL SITES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ULTIMATELY WINNING THE BATTLE BY NOON. CLOUDCOVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHER CIGS AND MORE NUMEROUS BREAKS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM AND CONSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THE SITES THAT MAY DROP A FEW CATEGORIES LOWER. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THE PERIOD. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...JM/TB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
859 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... FORECAST TRENDING FAIRLY WELL BUT ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR SLOWER SPREAD OF CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK THAN LAST NIGHT PRODUCING MORE STIRRING THAT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW-VIS FOG. THIS GIVES CREDENCE TO SREF PROBABILITIES THAT INDICATE A LOWER THREAT OF FOG OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH NO MORE THAN A 50/50 CHANCE OF VSBYS UNDER 3 MILES IN THE IL BORDER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... CURRENT SITUATION TRENDING WELL WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF CIGS UNDER 3K FT...WHICH HAVE MVFR CIGS SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY 06Z AND REACHING THE FAR EAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THESE LOW CIGS HOLD IN UNTIL MID-MORNING THEN LIFT. && .MARINE... MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT SKETCHY AT THE MOMENT WITH HRRR SHOWING VSBYS STAYING AROUND 6 MILES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT NAM RE-DEVELOPS DENSE FOG AFTER 06Z AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG RE-DEVELOPING/SPREADING BACK SWD AFTER 06Z...ALBEIT WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES TOWARD OPEN WATER. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...AND MONITOR FOR EXPECTED RE-DEVELOPMENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD SW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE EAST COAST HIGH WILL KEEP THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT MORE STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WHILE SOME OF THE STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST HAS DIURNALLY DISSIPATED EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. IN FACT KEEPING A CLOSE EYE VIA VSBL IMAGERY ON NW EXPANSION OF LARGE STRATUS/FOG AREA OVER LAKE MI. ALSO SEEING MORE NARROW BAND ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHICH HAS NUDGED ONSHORE. OVER MUCH OF SRN WI THE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION EVOLVING BUT NOT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THERE ARE SOME DECENT WINDS OFF THE DECK AND THIS SHOULD NEGATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG ON ADJACENT LAND AREAS THERE HOWEVER TRAJ SUGGESTS ANY OF THIS FOG WOULD NOT MAKE A SIGGY INLAND PUSH. OVERALL MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT HANGING TO OUR WEST. 925 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPS DEEP INTO THE 60S. WILL HAVE TO AGAIN CONTEND WITH SOME MORNING STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT GETTING CLOSER...BUT ANY SHRA CHANCES CONFINED TO WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA CONCEIVABLY COULD REACH 70 AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN SEE. OVERALL UPTICK IN 700 MILLIBAR RH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE SOMEWHAT WARMER GFS MOS BUT IF WINDOW BETWEEN ANY MORNING STRATUS AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS NARROWS THEN THE COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CAUSE COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...THIS IS WELL OVER 95TH PERCENTILE. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TRAILING OFF AFTER 06Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM NEAR THE SFC UP TO 600H SWEEPS THRU SRN WI AS LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-6.5 DEGREES WHILE ELEVATED CAPE INCREASES TO OVER 500 J/KG JUST PRIOR TO STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. HENCE WL BEEF UP THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE AND ISOLD OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DYNAMIC TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE T THREAT TO SCT. MUCH COLDER AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. 925H TEMPS TUMBLE 10C AND EXPECT FRI MAX T TO BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER. WITH SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC...DRIER SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO LOW LEVELS AND CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS FOR AT LEAST PART OF FRI. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS WRN GTLAKES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF SLIDES TO THE EAST. EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TRENDING TO MEDIUM. QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS BROADSCALE UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER UPPER MIDWEST TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GTLAKES ON MON. AT THIS TIME...COLUMN MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE PINCHED OFF DUE TO LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST AND SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME ADDED LIFT FROM INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE TIME. COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY LOW POPS FOR NOW. WARMER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AS UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF OVER WRN CONUS TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT GETS NUDGED NORTHEAST BY EASTERN PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CONUS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF WL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIKELY BRING BETTER THREAT FOR SHRA TO SRN WI TUE NIGHT INTO WED NGT. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEASONAL NORMAL BY THE 12TH. GFS 5-DAY 500H PATTERN INDICATING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS SPREADING INTO UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z/12 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL HAS SHOWN SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION BUT WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR MORE IFR STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH SOME IFR VSBYS AS WELL. WINDS OFF THE DECK SUGGEST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT SOME PATCHY LWR VSBYS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING BACK INTO SRN WI. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DAYS AS BEING THE BEST WINDOW FOR RAINFALL. MARINE...COOLER LAKE TEMPS INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN FOG OVER A PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WATCHING TRENDS ON VSBL IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS/FOG AREA TRENDING NW AND EXPANDING FROM MID LAKE WITH A MORE NARROW BAND NEAR THE SHORE. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO HAVE HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU AND BEHIND THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHER CONFIDENT SCA SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BETTER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ UPDATE...REM TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED. SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS COULD FALL TO NEAR MINIMUMS IN SOME PLACES. BEST PROBABILITY FOR TIMING WOULD FALL INTO THE 09Z-15Z RANGE. LOW CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS ARE HANGING TOUGH AT THIS HOUR...SO THE LOW CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69 RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S. TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SPOTS. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE. AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS... MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT FEELS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FG/ST TNGT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FCST HAS NOT CLARIFIED MUCH SINCE THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. TEMPS IN THE N FELL SWIFTLY AFTER SUNSET... RESULTING IN QUICK FOG FORMATION. THAT SEEMED TO INICATE A FOGGY NIGHT AT RHI. BUT...FOG HAS ACTUALLY BECOME LESS PREVELANT IN THE PAST COUPLE HRS. PLUS...STLT NOW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH- MIDDLE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATER IN THE NGT. SO THE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS. FOG WL PROBABLY BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACRS THE N INCLUDING THE RHI TAF SITE. BUT ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WL CONT TO FLUCTUATE...AND DO NOT FORESEE CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING AND REMAINING LOW ALL NGT. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this afternoon. Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between 3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings. Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning with breeze wnw winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on Friday from tonights lows. A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL. Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf southeast of central IL Mon/Tue. More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night) and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF models due to highly amplied upper level pattern. Stuck close to model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest pops east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night and Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms due to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main concerns remain on fog potential and the progression and coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. The latest RAP soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet by 08z/2am at all TAF sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent the development of dense fog tonight. MVFR fog is already beginning to form across the area, so have included 3-4SM MVFR fog from 08z to 16z. HRRR continues to keep dense fog mainly southeast of I-70, and away from any terminal sites tonight. Steady southerly winds and increasing cloud cover should be enough to prevent the widespread low vsbys noted the past few nights. Once fog lifts by 16z, south winds will increase to between 13 and 16kt by late morning. VFR clouds are expected for the bulk of the day, with any showers holding off until later in the day for PIA and SPI. Prevailing rain and VCTS were included at all TAF sites for mid to late evening as marginal instability, a low level jet, and ample moisture arrive in our forecast area ahead of the cold front. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Clearing has developed in most of central and southeast Illinois this evening, which should facilitate the start of fog formation, but most likely not dense fog. That will be mainly due to the fact that mid-level clouds are still poised to move north into our area from southern IL and SE Missouri. RAP forecast soundings show a moist layer around 4k feet through the night, so believe that clouds will still eventually cover much of the area by sunrise. Have updated sky conditions to reduce evening clouds, then increase after midnight. HRRR vis forecast shows dense fog mainly SE of I-70 later tonight. MVN has already dipped to 1/4SM in fog, which matches the latest HRRR output well. Have added areas of fog to the SE counties after midnight, and lingered it to 14z. Will watch that area closely for possible need for a dense fog advisory. Temps and dewpoints still appear on track, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Updated forecast info will be available shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main short-term forecast concern will be potential fog development tonight. Widespread dense fog from early this morning dissipated by midday, followed by partly sunny skies during the afternoon. Exact degree of mixing that took place during the day remains in question: however, NAM/RAP forecast soundings are not nearly as moist in the lowest-levels as they have been in previous nights. In addition, widespread cloud cover streaming northward from Arkansas/western Tennessee should result in mostly cloudy skies tonight. Given the cloud cover and slightly stronger winds due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching front, do not think fog will become as widespread or dense as it has lately. As a result, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast for tonight with low temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Morning upper air shows deep trof in the western rockies with upper ridge over MS valley. Soundings continue to show significant moisture below strong inversion, but with more gradient and cloudiness, fog will be less than previous nights (as mentioned previously). Moisture flow will continue ahead of deepening frontal system progged to move out of rockies. This will bring pcpn into area ahead of the front. Instability will be limited, but strength of upper support and wind flow will make some gusty winds possible with the passage of some of the stronger showers/storms. Models similar in movement of front on Thursday night, with decreasing clouds by Friday after front moved through. Cooler high pressure in control through weekend. Next chance of pcpn with the next shortwave moving through Midwest midweek. Models differ though on timing of this front, so chance pops in the forecast for Tues night to Wed will need to be refined later. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Main concerns remain on fog potential and the progression and coverage of mid clouds moving north into our area. The latest RAP soundings are showing a pinch of moisture around 4K feet by 08z/2am at all TAF sites. Any cloud cover should help to prevent the development of dense fog tonight. MVFR fog is already beginning to form across the area, so have included 3-4SM MVFR fog from 08z to 16z. HRRR continues to keep dense fog mainly southeast of I-70, and away from any terminal sites tonight. Steady southerly winds and increasing cloud cover should be enough to prevent the widespread low vsbys noted the past few nights. Once fog lifts by 16z, south winds will increase to between 13 and 16kt by late morning. VFR clouds are expected for the bulk of the day, with any showers holding off until later in the day for PIA and SPI. Prevailing rain and VCTS were included at all TAF sites for mid to late evening as marginal instability, a low level jet, and ample moisture arrive in our forecast area ahead of the cold front. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Goetsch AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1218 AM UPDATE...CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AS OF MIDNIGHT WITH SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE ALLAGASH TO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EVEN A BIT OF VERY LIGHT SLEET MIXED IN AT WFO CARIBOU. MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION...BUT THAT LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS. DID NEED TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG LATER THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY/MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/FOISY/MCW/FARRAR MARINE...CB/FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FOCUS ON WINDS FOR FRI AND THEN LK EFFECT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT. STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST TO NEAR ADVY CRITERIA WL IMPACT EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP TO THE SW OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING LO PRES IN SE CANADA. THESE STRONG NW WINDS WL ADVECT AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LK EFFECT PCPN INTO THE AREA ON FRI. BUT THE BEST CHC FOR THIS PCPN WL BE LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE/DEEP MSTR ARRIVE OVER THE AREA. AN INCOMING RDG AXIS WL END THE LK EFFECT PCPN QUICKLY LATE SAT AND BRING DRY AND MILDER WX FOR SUN INTO TUE. FRI...LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY ON FRI MRNG WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS LO DEEPENING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 960-965MB. ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE THRU NEWBERRY BY 12Z FRI. THEN UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND HI PRES BLDG FM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS MAINLY DURING THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD UNDER THE STRONG CAA PATTERN BEHIND THE FNT WL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AT LEAST CLOSE TO ADVY CRITERIA AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP. THE GRADIENT/WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF SHARPER PRES RISES TO THE E. ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FROPA WL END ANY LINGERING WDSPRD RA OVER THE E SOON AFTER 12Z... SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME LK EFFECT TYPE PCPN WL DVLP DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN THE CYC WNW FLOW AS H85 TEMPS DROP TO ARND -5C BY 00Z SAT. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW AN INVERTED V TYPE T/TD PROFILE DVLPG FM THE SFC TO NEAR H85...WITH THIS LLVL DRYING LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR MAY LOWER THE WBLB TEMP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SN TO MIX WITH THE RA LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN. FRI NGT/SAT...BULK OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME DEEPER MSTR WL ARRIVE LATE FRI NGT AND IMPACT THE AREA BEFORE EXITING TO THE E DURING SAT AFTN...WHEN SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW WL ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AS LO AS -7 TO -8C JUSTIFY SOME LIKELY POPS IN AREAS FAVORED BY THE FCST WNW FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR IS FCST TO EXTEND INTO THE DGZ AT LEAST FOR A TIME...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN AREAS INTO SAT MRNG WHERE AND WHEN SFC TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO 32. BUT WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE 32 AT MOST PLACES...ANY SN ACCUM SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. SAT NGT/SUN...ANY LINGERING LK EFFECT PCPN/CLDS ON SAT EVNG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AND PASSES TO THE E...WITH H925 WSHFT TO THE SW OVERNGT UNDER FCST 12HR HGT RISES UP TO 150M. EXPECTED CLRG SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVNG...BUT INCRSG WSW WIND OVERNGT UNDER SHARPER GRADIENT TO THE N OF HI CENTER MOVING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TEMP DROP. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO ARND 5C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ON SUN RISING TO AT LEAST NEAR 50...WARMEST OVER THE W. EXTENDED...ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES MIGRATING THRU THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN OFF THE E COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WL BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WITH H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM 5C FOR MON AND TUE. THE NEXT CHC FOR RA WL ARRIVE NEXT WED AS SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES MOVE NE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR LKS PER THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MSLP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 SSWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS GREATEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KSAW WITH A BIT OF MIXING OCCURING TO HELP RAISE THE CLOUD HEIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KIWD AND KCMX OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS A S WIND UP TO 25-30KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A COLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. BECAUSE THE LO TO THE N WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND ADVECT COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS... STABILITY WILL DECREASE AND ENHANCE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE LAKE SURFACE. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E ON FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SSW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ012>014. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ246>251-265>267. GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE INFLUENCE. WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE. WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 SSWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS GREATEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KSAW WITH A BIT OF MIXING OCCURING TO HELP RAISE THE CLOUD HEIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KIWD AND KCMX OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ012>014. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LSZ246>251-265>267. GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING. DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD. I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY.. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MEASURABLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY BUT MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR AND IFR AS RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN. THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...04 MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1137 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 THE VISIBILITY CONTINUED TO BE AROUND A MILE AT KDLH AND KCOQ. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WE WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED FOR THE TIME AT KDLH...BUT KCOQ WAS AT 0.5SM. SURFACE WINDS AT KDLH/KMZH WERE SOUTH AS OF 03Z...AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ELIMINATING THE MARINE INFLUENCE. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND IF VSBYS REMAIN NEAR WHAT THEY ARE NOW...WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP DENSE FOG A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LIFTING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE. WE WILL TRIM BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND JUST MENTION IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PULSE UP AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE PERSISTED MUCH OF TODAY WITH ONLY A HINT OF CLEARING APPARENT AROUND PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF AN E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE TWIN PORTS...WHICH HAVE SEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE EAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT AND LIFT THE FOG AROUND THE DULUTH/SUPERIOR AREA...BUT JUST PUT THE FOCUS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND TO 8 AM FOR THE NORTH SHORE THE CONTINUOUS PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS RESPECTIVELY...INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP PRIME THE MID LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDES BROAD LARGE-SCALE LIFT...IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF 700-500MB CAPE...RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ERODE EVEN FURTHER LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT OVER N-CENTRAL MN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 SUMMARY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN...EITHER OF RAIN OR SNOW...IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...AND DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK AND TIMING...COULD BRING RAINS TO THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR A LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK. FRIDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN CLOUDY AND COOL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLAKES AND LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WATERS AND ELY AREAS. INCREASED WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 MPH OR MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 40 OVER NE MINNESOTA...AND REACH THE LOW 40S IN NW WISCONSIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...SO LEANED A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE IN THE LOW 30S. SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE WNW FLOW AND BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL CLEARING BACK TO SUNNY SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THOUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES....BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. BREEZY SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AND THE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH DAYS. TUESDAY...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THE TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO FILTER COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 STRATUS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS FROM 300-1500FT FOR MOST AREAS. A POCKET OF VFR CEILINGS WAS OCCURRING IN A PORTION OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS FAR NORTH AS KBRD. HOWEVER...WE THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR...ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 49 57 36 40 / 40 70 20 0 INL 48 49 34 37 / 60 80 60 10 BRD 53 56 35 42 / 50 70 20 0 HYR 45 58 38 42 / 30 60 70 10 ASX 50 61 42 43 / 10 40 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...TENTINGER LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
929 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... WEAK ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN WY CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PCPN TO OUR FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING...WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED IN OUR WEST FROM HARLOWTON AND ROUNDUP TO COLUMBUS AND BILLINGS. AS PCPN TAPER OFF TONIGHT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WESTERLY COMPONENT OF WIND CERTAINLY LIMITS OUR FOG POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT PATCHY VALLEY FOG...SUCH AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING. HAVE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF FOG FROM 6-15Z...AND HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER QUICKER ACROSS OUR WEST HALF PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST TO AROUND 30 IN OUR EAST...WITH AREAS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER MODERATED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. JKL && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI... DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF WAS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROF AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLIDE EAST OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A TEMPORARY BREAK WITH PERIOD OF DRIER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND CYCLONIC. AS SUCH...PROGS PICK UP ON CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO MONTANA LATE IN THE DAY AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMP PROGS DO GO BELOW FREEZING SO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW. SOME PROGS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HEFTY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH IT IS NOT A CONSENSUS. SO WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT OUR MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS WILL SEE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WE FEEL THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE AT THIS POINT OF IT PRODUCING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE PROGS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FOR CLUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE MAY NEED ADVISORIES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE FOOTHILLS. SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST AND 500MB RIDGING TAKES OVER. BT .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...WITH BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AS TROF MOVES ON TO WEST COAST. OUR PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE GAP FLOW AREAS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND NYE. I TWEAKED WINDS UP WITH MINOR PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY. A LARGE OPEN TROF OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE SOME MINOR WAVES EJECT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PROGS WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY FAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN OR POSSIBLY CUT OFF. SO THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE AND MAINLY BLENDED PARAMETERS FOR NOW. BT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KSHR AND KMLS WHERE LOW MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD AFTER 12Z. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG NEAR KMLS FROM 11-15Z. LOW RANGE VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLVM STRATUS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL. DOBBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 028/043 028/042 026/051 031/054 032/050 031/039 024/042 00/B 42/J 00/B 00/U 01/B 43/W 31/B LVM 021/036 022/036 022/044 026/047 029/045 026/036 022/037 12/W 53/J 00/N 00/N 13/W 43/J 31/N HDN 026/045 028/044 023/054 027/055 029/053 031/041 024/043 10/B 32/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 53/W 32/J MLS 031/047 030/045 026/054 029/056 031/053 032/042 025/042 20/B 22/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 33/W 32/J 4BQ 030/047 027/044 025/056 027/057 030/056 031/045 025/043 31/B 23/J 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W BHK 030/043 025/041 022/052 026/056 029/053 028/041 023/040 31/E 23/W 00/U 00/U 01/U 23/W 43/J SHR 025/044 026/041 019/052 026/054 027/053 029/041 021/042 20/B 33/W 10/U 00/U 01/B 44/W 32/J && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA. SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT 12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DO MUCH TODAY. PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 VIS HAVE RECOVERED OVER ALL BUT KTVF...WITH SOME SITES EVEN GOING ABOVE 6SM. CIGS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW IN THE 200 TO 500 FT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE SOME DIPS DOWN TO THE 3-5SM VIS RANGE FOR THOSE SITES WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY...BUT OVERALL THINK THAT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE RAIN COMES IN FROM SD. RAIN BAND WILL MOVE INTO KFAR AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SOME SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE RED RIVER BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. VIS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR RANGE BUT SOME DIPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE IFR CATEGORY OR LIFR. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005- 006-008-009-013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1242 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AREA IS IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST RAP MODEL AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND MAINLY RESTRICTED TO JUST THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL HELP MITIGATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT IN THE WAA PATTERN HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTING UP ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACK DOWN A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT IT IS STILL IN THE 40-60 KNOT RANGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE PULLED UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PULL SOME MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE THEM FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY FALLING SATURDAY AS THE AREA FALLS INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO DEGREES C KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. MODELS THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS LEFT OVER VORTICITY FROM THE EXITING TROUGH AXIS LAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MONDAY MORNING THE EURO WRAPS UP THE LEFT OVER VORTICITY INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND QUICKLY PULLS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EURO SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ CMC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY AS IT EJECTS THE LEFT OVER POSITIVE VORTICITY OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS THEN BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY EAST ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY. THE EURO IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS/CMC SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z PARTICULARLY IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH ON THIS SO JUST PUT THAT AS TEMPO CONDITIONS. BEYOND THIS IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS MAY LOWER A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT AND MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .AVIATION... 0506/0606 TAFS...A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 9-10Z WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / AVIATION... 0500/0524 TAFS...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OKC/OUN MAINLY AFTER 12Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS VEER. BY 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE 04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAHALE OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 73 47 64 / 40 50 10 0 HOBART OK 60 73 44 64 / 50 30 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 63 76 46 69 / 50 60 10 0 GAGE OK 54 71 37 64 / 40 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 61 73 43 64 / 30 50 10 0 DURANT OK 63 71 52 70 / 50 90 50 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION. MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND EAST. FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 70 100 40 50 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 70 100 40 50 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 30 90 50 40 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT... EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY... LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE... WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 && .AVIATION... INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE NAM12 925 MB WIND FORECAST WILL HELP MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND AVIATION SITES TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD CEILINGS OVER FOG...ALTHOUGH THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT NEAR THE KSGR...KCXO...AND KIAH SITES FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z. MORE CONFIDENT WITH AN MVFR CEILING FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 19Z. LESS CONFIDENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLS BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD AT THIS SITE WILL BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS BEST AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO AFTER 18Z. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ UPDATE... SEE EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION... AT 8 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENING AND SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECOUPLE. CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT LINED UP FROM BRO TO FWD. 850 MB DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED TO 15C ACROSS S TX. 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON SE TX AND THIS FEATURE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE MSTR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TRIMMED POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT LEFT THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS IT WAS. FEEL THE SFC-850 WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG THREAT SO TONED DOWN THE FOG WORDING A BIT. SFC DEW PTS NEAR 70 SO BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A BIT AS WELL. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 AVIATION... THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND SREF...SUGGEST THE PROBLEM WILL BE MORE LOW CEILINGS THAN FOG. HOWEVER...THE SREF FORECAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z NEAR KCXO AND KSGR...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KCXO. FELT THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 17Z AT KCLL...KUTS...AND KLBX. GUIDANCE AND THE MODELS SUGGESTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCXO BEFORE THE CEILINGS LIFTED TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 17Z -- THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SPECIFIC AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO BETTER PINPOINT CONDITIONS AT KCXO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES ARE LESS ELSEWHERE. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... A WARM AND HUMID EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NE AREAS. WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH M CLOUDY SKIES AND DW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT...BUT NOT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WE SAW LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS AS A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE ACROSS N TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING TOMORROW ACROSS W/NW AREAS OF SE TX...THEN SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A BRENHAM TO CROCKETT LINE. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GENERALLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LINGER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE RAIN CHC ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHCS AGAIN INCREASING. 33/44 MARINE... THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL PARTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THE RAINS OVER INLAND TEXAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AND SEAS OVER WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BUMP TO TIDE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 81 65 74 61 / 10 50 80 40 60 HOUSTON (IAH) 69 81 70 79 65 / 10 30 50 60 60 GALVESTON (GLS) 73 78 73 78 69 / 10 10 40 50 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .AVIATION... FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD. CIGS WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VIS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN RAIN STARTS AND STOPS. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH A NORTH WIND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ ..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/ESCARPMENT/I-35 CORRIDOR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING... UPDATE...SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST PERTAINING TO OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS AND SEVERE THREATS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL PLACEMENT WERE TWEAKED PER LATEST TIME ENSEMBLES OF HI-RES MODELS HINTING AT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCE PERCENTAGES WERE BOOSTED ANOTHER 10% FOR THE 4AM-10AM RANGE IN THE MOSTLY LIKELY AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO THE THE EAST HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT AND NEAR I-35. THIS COULD INCLUDE BOTH THE SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN METRO AREAS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A LOW-END RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. DISCUSSION... INITIAL PLUME OF MID-LVL BAND ISENTROPIC INDUCED SHOWERS IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE ESCARPMENT REGION. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAWN WITH CURRENT PROGGED PWATS NEAR 1.7" INCREASING TOWARDS 2.1" BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z KCRP SOUNDING SAMPLED 2.11" WHICH WAS ABOVE THEIR MAXIMUM MOVING AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY 0.17" BELOW THEIR ALL- TIME DAILY MAXIMUM. OF NOTE...CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL LAPS DATA SUGGEST NEAR 200 M2/S2 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR DAWN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO UTILIZE THIS ORGANIZATIONAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. A H7-H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSE IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS/NAM AND RAP TO BE TRANSITING THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT SAME TIME OF THE PWAT INCREASE BY 6AM. THIS LIFT INDUCING IMPULSE WITH NEAR 500-1000 J/KG CAPE AND CONTINUED 150-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH IN PRESENCE OF 40-45KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS IN THIS HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS SOME STRONG WINDS OF 40-60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SPC SSEO IS INDICATIVE OF AN UPTICK IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS THROUGH 6AM TIME- FRAME THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF POTENTIAL EVOLUTION. OF NOTE HAS BEEN THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE HRRR THAT AS SHIFTED THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE. THE RAP (WHICH DID WELL LOCATION WISE OF HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT IN THE 10/30 EVENT) DOES NOT HAVE AS HIGH OF RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE HRRR BUT IS QUITE SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR REGION. THE HILL COUNTRY TO ESCARPMENT TO I-35 CORRIDOR IS THE PRIMARY ZONE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW. THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 80 80 80 30 50 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 70 80 80 30 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 80 70 80 30 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 70 70 80 40 50 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT... EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY... LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE... WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1231 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUED TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY... SOLID WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES WITH THE MAIN CULPRIT LOWERING CIGS. THANKS TO THE TERRAIN...KBLF WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR AND THE LATEST OBS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AND WILL HAVE TO AMD IF THE IMPROVEMENT BECOMES MORE THAN TEMPORARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE WILL NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A VCSH. THE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST WHICH WEAKENS THE WEDGE AND ALLOWS DIURNAL HEATING TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD DECK TOWARD NOONTIME. WILL KEEP A BKN CIG AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE A BKN/V/SCT SITUATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING KBLF WHERE ELEVATION AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO A PREFERRED SWLY DIRECTION WILL HELP GENERATE SOME GUSTS. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...MBS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WILL TRANSITION FROM ONE DOMINATED BY WARM-SECTOR UPLIFT IN ITS EARLY STAGES...TO ONE DOMINATED BY TWO OTHER FACTORS...COLD ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION. THE COLD ADVECTION BEGAN KICKING IN OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY OVER THE ROAN PLATEAU. AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOME AIR BEGINS TO CIRCULATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER... LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS HOLD QPF SOUTH OF THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER SO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SIMILARLY...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON VALLEY AS WELL SINCE DYNAMICS NOR FLOW ARE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO CREATING A SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE HILLS NORTH OF THE GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH/S GRAND FLAT. A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED BY THE NAM AND HRRR TO MOVE FROM THE ROAN PLATEAU ...EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND EXIT THE AREA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS APPEARED TO BE TIMED WELL WITH FORECAST MOVEMENT AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ERODES A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK RANGE IN THE EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FIRST SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEREFORE APPEARS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES ARE FAVORED WITH THIS STORM AND COLDER AIR SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY BOTTOMS. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ERODES CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO AT MIDWEEK WHICH IMPLIES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE FALLING AT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 THE WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT KASE...KEGE...KTEX...KRIL MOST FREQUENTLY RELATIVE TO OTHER AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE EXPECT KGJT...KMTJ...KDRO...KVEL AND KCNY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003-017. FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ006. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-008. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009- 010-012-013-018-019. UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR UTZ023-025-028. FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR UTZ022- 027-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 MID MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOW THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE MOST SUN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT OBS...AND BLEND THE CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING KEEPING TEMPS. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WARM AND MOIST PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH INTO THE DAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION AS WELL. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE DAWN AND FURTHER INTO THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR THIS...HAVE LEFT THE AREA DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SET UP AS PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING MAKING TI INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DAWN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 50 KNOTS WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY DAWN AND WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THOUGH ELEVATED...WILL BRING IN THUNDER BY 10Z IN THE WEST. FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT...WILL BRING IN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE ONE QUESTION IS THAT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL THERE BE A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SPORADIC AND GENERALLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO FOR THIS...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND DAMPEN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF LOW BREAKING AWAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS SHOW UP BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE DID UNDERCUT SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE TRENDED UP ALONG THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN THE FORCING AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAINFALL TO OUR AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW ENSUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 DESPITE SOME 3K FT CIGS AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH IN TN...THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CROSS THE CUMBERLAND REGION THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MAINLY 4K TO 5K FT CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 958 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 955 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Warm start to the day so far. In fact, should SDF stay at 64 for the low for the day, it will tie the record warm minimum temperature for the date, set back in 1977. BWG is at 64 for the day as well, which would break the record last set in 1994. LEX and FFT both reached 59 this morning, so their records are safe. As for precip, we are still on track for a weakening line of showers approaching our northwest forecast area this evening, or perhaps some showers developing over that area. Latest local WRF runs through 06Z and has a stronger line just northwest of the region at that time. This matches up well with the end of the latest HRRR runs as well. This band is in association with the northern vortmax, now over western NE/KS, of the broad trough entering the Plains states. Forecasting out in time, expect the worst of this band to perhaps just clip our northern forecast area...but given the time of day still think the worst it will produce is some brief gusty winds and thunder. The precipitable water available and forcing should be enough to blanket the rest of the region at least with showers Friday morning, so categorical pops still look good. Forecast QPF totals for the event range from around a half inch over the northwest forecast area to a quarter to half inch in the rest of the region. These totals are in line with SPC ensemble means. All that said, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Have sent out a grid update to match current obs and make slight tweaks to pops, that do not affect the overall zone forecast enough for an update. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)... Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Main challenge is the intensity of showers and storms tonight and Friday as a dynamic upper low ejects out of the Four Corners region. Model progs suggest some phasing of the northern and southern streams, but the northern stream will dominate and the southern stream wave will shear out as it lifts quickly NE into the Great Lakes. Surface low will lift to near James Bay by early Friday, with the cold front dragging through the Ohio Valley as it is left behind. Another unseasonably warm day today in the southerly flow ahead of the front. However, clouds will be a limiting factor in temps, and we can`t rule out a few spotty warm advection showers, especially west of I-65. Max temp forecast is near MOS consensus, but with more sunshine than advertised we could approach record highs near 80. By tonight POPs ramp up to categorical, as the low-level jet cranks up near 50 kt ahead of the front. SPC has trimmed the Day 1 Marginal Risk back to near the Mississippi River, but leaves the Day 2 Marginal covering all over central KY and southern IN. Main factor weighing against SVR potential is that the dynamics never quite coincide with the moisture and instability, as it`s a weakening system coming through near the diurnal minimum of instability. Will carry embedded thunder, and gusty showers seem a fairly good bet tonight. Will highlight potential for 40 mph gusts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and any graphics that go out this morning. Normally would be inclined to bump up from guidance mins, but there should be enough precip to drop temps into the mid 60s. Will drop POPs quickly from NW-SE on Friday morning as the front pushes through the northern half of the area. By Friday afternoon, the front does hang up enough to warrant chance POPs south of a Bowling Green to Richmond line into Friday night. Seasomable temps return Friday night as much cooler air finally spills in behind the front. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Cold front will make a slow exit, so we can`t rule out a few lingering showers Sat morning near Lake Cumberland. Otherwise, cool high pressure building from the north will bring quiet weather for the weekend, with temps running slightly below normal for early November. By early next week, lingering upper trofiness left behind by the Friday system will develop into a closed low over Arkansas. This feature will get caught up in broader SW flow aloft, and lift through the Ohio Valley by Monday night. GFS/ECMWF are showing better agreement that this low will draw moisture northward into the Ohio Valley, so will continue to carry 20-30 POP for Monday. Best chance of light rain will be across south central Kentucky. Dry and seasonable pattern Tue-Wed under surface high and shortwave ridge aloft. Vigorous upper low will dig into the western CONUS by Tuesday, then eject out across the Plains mid-week. This could be a significant system for the Ohio Valley, but at this point all sensible wx impacts look to hold off until at least Wed night/Thu. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 615 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Low level moisture will move into the area today ahead of an approaching cold front set to arrive on Friday. Ahead of this feature, expecting current VFR ceilings to possibly drop into the IFR range for a period of time this morning in the afternoon. Upstream obs have gone down right around the MVFR/IFR threshold, although BWG has yet to see anyting below 5 K feet. Will stay on the optimistic side of IFR, but do feel there will be a period of below fuel alternate. Less confidence at SDF where MVFR clouds would be most likely from late morning to mid afternoon, which is generally the least favorable time of day for this to occur. Think LEX will stay far enough east that MVFR conditions won`t occur until later tonight. Expect generally south surface winds to pick up around 10 mph through the day, with all sites going VFR through the afternoon. A few sprinkles may be around at times this afternoon, but not enough to mention. Rain and perhaps a few t-storm will increase in coverage from west to east after Midnight. Any shower will bring a reduction in visibility, and expect ceilings to drop into the MVFR range. Gusty SSW winds may be enough to limit the potential for lower than MVFR ceilings. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RJS Short Term.....RAS Long Term......RAS Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ...THE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IS NOW OVER AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THE NEXT SVRL DAYS... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW. SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY 21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT. POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM. 550 AM: CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED UP TO THE TRI-CITIES BUT STRATUS IS NEARBY...LURKING BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE STRATUS WILL REINVADE. TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY. BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE 08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT. TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S... WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING) ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: WSHFT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR/MVFR CIGS. TODAY: MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE TERMINALS BUT WILL MOVE BACK IN SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU 14Z-15Z. EXPECT WSHFT FROM SW TO NW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IFR CIGS AT EAR SINCE LXN/ODX ARE AT 600-700 FT AT 12Z. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR 15Z-19Z. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. BRIEF VFR SHWR POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT: CLEARING AS MVFR CIGS DEPART. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ...THE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IS NOW OVER AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THE NEXT SVRL DAYS... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW. SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY 21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT. POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM. TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY. BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE 08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT. TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S... WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR -SHRA WITH VCTS WILL EXIT EAR SHORTLY AND MOVE THRU GRI 06Z-07Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD TEMPORARILY TURN VFR BEHIND THIS WEAKENING SQUALL LINE. S WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THU: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS 14Z-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK IN. WSHFT TO NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THU EVE: MVFR CIGS EXITING TO VFR SKC. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 DEFORMATION ZONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST AND FORCING DECREASES. THIS THINKING IS WELL SUPPORTED BY HI-RES (HRRR...RAP) MODELS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LOW LEVEL TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WHERE THE P-TYPE IS SNOW. WEB CAMS INDICATE SNOW ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS REMAINING WET (ROAD TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS). AT ANY RATE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A THIN BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BY THIS EVENING FROM VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AND NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THE VALLEY REMAINING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SFC HARDER TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER...ACROSS EASTERN KITTSON COUNTY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON (AGAIN..1-2 INCHES). WILL MONITOR WEBCAMS FOR ROAD ACCUMULATIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA. SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT 12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DO MUCH TODAY. PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ONCE RAIN MOVES IN CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO MVFR RANGE. CURRENT LIFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING DVL...GFK...TVF AND BJI. HAVE CIGS LIFTING INTO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND COULD BE A BUSY UPDATE DAY. VSBY ALSO IMPROVING WITH ALL AREAS MVFR OR VFR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHWARD OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FA. WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SPOTTY LOWERED POPS THIS AREA. SO FAR PCPN HAS BEEN MOSTLY RAIN SO NO CHANGES YET WITH PHASE. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA. SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT 12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DO MUCH TODAY. PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ONCE RAIN MOVES IN CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO MVFR RANGE. CURRENT LIFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING DVL...GFK...TVF AND BJI. HAVE CIGS LIFTING INTO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND COULD BE A BUSY UPDATE DAY. VSBY ALSO IMPROVING WITH ALL AREAS MVFR OR VFR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
903 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOST OF THE MODELS..INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF AROUND THE AREA TODAY. NOT SURE IF THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TO JUST SOME SPRINKLES BREAKING OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE AND INDUCE A LITTLE LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INVERSION NEAR 700 MB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE SPRINKLE THREAT. WILL ADD MENTION OS SLIGHT CHC FOR SPRINKLES. THE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT ON AVERAGE MOST PLACES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE SITUATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. A GOOD SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OHIO THIS EVENING BUT DRY AIR BELOW THIS LAYER MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...ALL MODELS SHOW A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET REACHING NORTHERN OHIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO RAPIDLY FILL IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS TO AROUND 90 PERCENT ALL AREAS STRADDLING A 09-15Z WINDOW WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR STRONG STORMS WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT BEST. GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER...WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IF CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...WE CAN AT LEAST EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND BROUGHT A QUICK END TO PRECIPITATION AS VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DID ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS WILL RETURN. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES FOR MANY INLAND AREAS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WE THEN SET UP A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IF THE PAST HOLDS TRUE BETWEEN THE MODELS THE GFS WILL LIFT THE ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOO FAST WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDING UP BEING THE BETTER SOLUTION. SO FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST. ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND KTOL THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE AFTER A MORNING DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IT APPEARS THAT A 5000 FOOT CEILING WILL DEVELOP THEN SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NW OHIO AROUND 03Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS. RAIN MAY REACH NW OHIO BY 07Z BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR NOW. AS THE RAINS BEGIN CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TODAY. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD TOUCH 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A DEFINITE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BUILD WAVES TO AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO GO A BIT LONGER FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .AVIATION... A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA. CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION. MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND EAST. FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST LOCATIONS. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 70 100 40 50 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 70 100 40 50 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 30 90 50 40 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL... COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS... KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL... TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
514 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7- H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/ LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 514 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 SNOW/RAIN IS STEADILY PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS FILLED IN BEHIND THE PRECIP BUT SHOULD STEADILY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT WILL STAY GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ115>118. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...RJM AVIATION...RJM FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7- H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/ LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1111 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ABOVE 5000 FEET MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOW CEILINGS AND FALLING SNOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ115>118. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...RJM AVIATION...SML FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 WITH BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW EAST OF UTAH...CANCELLED WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR EASTERN UT MTNS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REFORM AROUND GJT AND SCOOT EAST SO WILL HOLD ON TO THE HIGHLIGHTS AS CURRENTLY DESIGNED IN WESTERN CO...ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MTN RANGE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL OF 5000 FEET NORTH TO 6500 FEET SOUTH. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH VALLEY ZONES FOR TONIGHT. HIGH CERTAINTY OF A KILLING FROST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WILL TRANSITION FROM ONE DOMINATED BY WARM-SECTOR UPLIFT IN ITS EARLY STAGES...TO ONE DOMINATED BY TWO OTHER FACTORS...COLD ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION. THE COLD ADVECTION BEGAN KICKING IN OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY OVER THE ROAN PLATEAU. AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS SOME AIR BEGINS TO CIRCULATE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER... LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS HOLD QPF SOUTH OF THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER SO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SIMILARLY...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR THE GUNNISON VALLEY AS WELL SINCE DYNAMICS NOR FLOW ARE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO CREATING A SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE HILLS NORTH OF THE GRAND VALLEY AND UTAH/S GRAND FLAT. A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED BY THE NAM AND HRRR TO MOVE FROM THE ROAN PLATEAU ...EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND EXIT THE AREA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS APPEARED TO BE TIMED WELL WITH FORECAST MOVEMENT AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ERODES A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK RANGE IN THE EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE FIRST SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN SLIDES EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEREFORE APPEARS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES ARE FAVORED WITH THIS STORM AND COLDER AIR SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY BOTTOMS. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ERODES CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO AT MIDWEEK WHICH IMPLIES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE FALLING AT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 SCT SHOWERS...SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE TAF SITES ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND KASE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL KEEP MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FOR AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF CO AND THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE KEGE AND KASE. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TOO LOW TO GO BEYOND VCSH. HOWEVER...WHERE CLEARING DOES OCCUR...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE VALLEYS. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ006. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009- 010-012-013-018-019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003-017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ008. UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-027-029. && $$ UPDATE...BEN SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...BEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main challenge remains with the timing of the narrow line of showers/storms tonight. Main cold front showing up on radar just northwest of Des Moines this afternoon and extends southwest into north central Kansas per surface observations. Strong/severe storms are increasing over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and some of the remnants of those are progged by the HRRR to be moving into central Illinois in the 7-9 pm time frame. Organization of the main convective line has started, based on regional radar mosaics over east central Minnesota and around Kansas City, and this line should fill in over the next few hours. High-resolution models suggesting this line should be roughly from Jacksonville-Peoria by late evening and reach I-57 by 3 am. Not a lot of lightning anticipated with the convection, but the RAP continues to indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and significant wind shear (0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 knots). Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains the marginal risk of severe storms from about Lacon-Springfield westward. Rain should rapidly shut off in the wake of the convective line. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The cold front will have moved through the state by Friday morning which will allow a dry high pressure area to build into the region for the weekend. This high pressure will also bring in relatively cooler temperatures through Sunday. Though cooler than what we`ve experienced most of this week, normal temperatures in the middle 50s will be common through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. When the high pressure area moves into the eastern US, southerly winds will return to the area. Conditions will remain dry Mon and Tue while a mid level trough builds out west. This trough will eventually push into the midwest mid week and bring the return of pcpn to the area for Wed through Thur. ECMWF and GFS differ on timing of the next system, with the GFS weaker and quicker with the system, while the ECMWF is slower and has a much stronger system with a cutoff low associated with it. The slower ECMWF would keep pcpn in the area through the end of the week, while the quicker GFS bring the pcpn through by Thursday. Due to the blending of the models, the new forecast will have pops for Wed through Thur. However, expect the pops to reduced in places as models come into better agreement and the expected outcome becomes better known; which could take several days. Temps will warm back again to just above normal, just not as warm as this past week. So, looking at mid 50s to mid 60s ahead of the mid week system. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the passage of a fast moving cold front. Currently thinking any rain before 00Z should be devoid of any thunder, as the instability will be accompanying the front itself. While the pressure gradient will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to 30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the strong dynamics with the system. A period of MVFR conditions will start to move in a couple hours before the main line, and skies should rapidly clear before sunrise. Existing TAF`s had this in hand and only required some minor timing adjustments. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Batch of rain showers advancing northeast ahead of the leading shortwave. Bulk of this will be affecting areas east of I-55, but have confined the highest PoP`s to locations south of a Taylorville to Paris line. There will likely be a break in some of the precipitation between this and the line of showers/storms that is expected to develop across central Iowa/northwest Missouri later this afternoon. The recent runs of the higher resolution model guidance focus on the 9 pm to 3 am time frame for frontal passage and its associated line of broken convection, and have adjusted the hourly rain chances accordingly. RAP guidance showing most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg, along with strong 0-6 km bulk shear values upwards of 60 knots, so will need to watch for some stronger winds mixing down in the heavier showers/storms. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this afternoon. Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between 3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings. Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning with breeze WNW winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on Friday from tonight`s lows. A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL. Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf southeast of central IL Mon/Tue. More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night) and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF models due to highly amplified upper level pattern. Stuck close to model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest pops east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night and Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms due to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main focus remains on potential for convection tonight, with the passage of a fast moving cold front. Currently thinking any rain before 00Z should be devoid of any thunder, as the instability will be accompanying the front itself. While the pressure gradient will keep gusty winds through frontal passage -- mainly from 20 to 30 knots -- some higher gusts may accompany the storms due to the strong dynamics with the system. A period of MVFR conditions will start to move in a couple hours before the main line, and skies should rapidly clear before sunrise. Existing TAF`s had this in hand and only required some minor timing adjustments. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Batch of rain showers advancing northeast ahead of the leading shortwave. Bulk of this will be affecting areas east of I-55, but have confined the highest PoP`s to locations south of a Taylorville to Paris line. There will likely be a break in some of the precipitation between this and the line of showers/storms that is expected to develop across central Iowa/northwest Missouri later this afternoon. The recent runs of the higher resolution model guidance focus on the 9 pm to 3 am time frame for frontal passage and its associated line of broken convection, and have adjusted the hourly rain chances accordingly. RAP guidance showing most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg, along with strong 0-6 km bulk shear values upwards of 60 knots, so will need to watch for some stronger winds mixing down in the heavier showers/storms. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Two forecast concerns this period include the extent of any dense fog across the area thru dawn, and then timing of initial push of moisture/showers into southwest thru southern counties this afternoon. Latest surface map indicating the area of high pressure that brought the area light winds and fog on a daily basis for the past several mornings has finally pushed far enough to our east to allow the gradient to tighten up over the forecast area as our next storm system pushes into the Plains. Forecast soundings continue to show a very shallow layer of moisture in the low levels, with a secondary band of moisture between 3000-5000 feet which is associated with a band of clouds now streaming northeast across central IL. Will continue to hold on to the mention of patchy fog this morning, but we are still thinking its not going to be nearly as dense or as long lasting as the past few mornings. Seeing a fast moving but narrow line of convection over the Missouri Valley associated with the frontal system which will push into our area tonight. Lead shortwave forecast by models to bring a band of showers northeast into at least our southwest thru southern counties this afternoon. Instability not looking that great with the lead wave with most of the boundary layer destabilization taking place with the main shortwave and attendant cold front tonight. Higher POPs will be across the south this afternoon and will include at least a slight chance of thunder this afternoon associated with the initial shortwave. With the tighter pressure gradient over our area today, look for gusty southerly winds thru the afternoon hours which should help push temperatures well above normal once again, mainly in the low 70s with a few mid 70s possible this afternoon over far southeast IL. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Strong cold front to track east and approach western IL by midnight tonight and sweep east across the state overnight. This spread showers and a few thunderstorms east across IL during the evening and then diminish from the west later tonight into early Friday morning. SPC has shifted marginal risk (5%) to western half of CWA tonight, with 5% risk of hail west of IL river and 5% risk of strong winds west of I-55. The 5% risk of tornadoes is just west of IL over central/eastern IA into western half of MO later today into this evening. Models have trended faster ending showers Friday morning with breeze WNW winds ushering in cooler air. Lows tonight range from upper 40s nw of IL river to the lower 60s near the Wabash river. Highs Friday range from mid 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s near Wabash river, so temps are not expected to climb much on Friday from tonight`s lows. A northern stream short wave trof dives southeast into IL Sat morning and exits southeast IL by sunset Saturday and could bring a period of clouds on Saturday. Seasonably cool highs Saturday in the lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL. Large high pressure settling into IL Sat night, and Ohio river valley Sunday, will bring dry and cool weather to central and southeast IL. Frosty lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday and Sunday nights. High pressure drifting east into southern New England and mid Atlantic states on Monday while surface low pressure developing over CO. Temperatures will gradually modify Monday through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow. 00Z forecast models have trended drier early next work week on Mon/Tue as southern stream short wave moves ne from the southern MS river valley across the southeast States and keeps most of its qpf southeast of central IL Mon/Tue. More unsettled weather expected for the middle of next week as deep upper level trof digs over the Rockies and surface low pressure intensifies as it ejects northeast from CO into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes by Wed evening per GFS or Thu evening per ECMWF/GEM models. This to bring another strong cold front east across IL though timing difference between GFS models (Wed night) and ECMWF/GEM models (Thu night). Models have trended slower with this storm system and tending to lean toward slower GEM and ECMWF models due to highly amplified upper level pattern. Stuck close to model consensus with pops ranging from 20-40% Wed with lowest pops east of I-57. Then chance of showers across area Wed night and Thursday and would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms due to strongly dynamic storm system. Milder highs in the 60s for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Patchy MVFR and IFR cigs/vsbys possible thru 13z, then VFR conditions are expected thru today with a return to MVFR and local IFR conditions in showers and isold thunder tonight. Increased southerly winds has prevented any widespread dense fog from forming this morning. We still could see a brief period of MVFR and local IFR cigs and vsbys with the fog for about an hour after sunrise, then mostly VFR cigs are expected into the afternoon hours. As the cold front pushes into the area tonight, showers will increase and the cigs/vsbys will decrease. A lead shortwave may bring an initial surge of moisture and showers into the area this afternoon. Will cover with a VCSH for that possibility, then the better chances arrive after dark this evening as the cold front approaches. MVFR cigs may actually get into the PIA area just before 00z, with the other TAF sites seeing MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys in showers and isold TSRA tonight. Southerly winds of 12 to 17 kts can be expected today with gusts up to 25 kts at times a little later this morning thru the afternoon hours. Look for the winds to veer into a westerly direction tonight as the cold front sweeps thru the area with speeds in the 12 to 17 kt range with gusts once again around 25 kts at times. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
354 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 A narrow but expanding band of showers was developing across the far southwest counties this afternoon, as far east as Liberal and Ulysses. This shower band is associated with an advancing upper cold trough just behind a surface 850 mb frontal boundary about top clear the CWA line in the southwest. Clouds have continued to expand during the afternoon elsewhere across the the area behind the boundary, leaving the south central Kansas counties in locations line Pratt Medicine Lodge and Coldwater sunny all afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday) ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The HRRR has continued to expand the pops eastward through the entire southern half of the forecast through the late afternoon as the wave translates across the area. A narrow corridor may pick up on the order of one tenth of an inch of rain in while most of the rest of the area will see scattered brief showers with little accumulation. As the high pressure expands across the area tonight, winds will gradually subside to light and northerly. The next couple of day will lead to overall cooler temperatures. Higher dewpoint immediately behind the boundary lends itself to some uncertainty in just how cool temperatures may fall in the eastern portion of the area, which will limit the eastward extent of tonight`s freeze warning. Temperatures will warm back toward the 60 degree mark with light winds on Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday) ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Colder air is likely across the entire forecast area by early Saturday morning as the pacific surface high pressure expands across the Central Plains this weekend. This will be the coldest morning of the forecast period with the western counties very likely falling into the upper 20s in the western counties. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 An 850 mb frontal boundary now moving though the area will eventual bring slightly lower surface dew points ans an drier airmass. However in the meantime, a sharp trough and cold pool this afternoon could set off showers across sections of south west and south central Kansas and may cause amendments to TAF site GCK/DDC. Any shower activity will not likely affect VFR conditions at any sites however. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 34 60 32 54 / 40 10 10 0 GCK 32 59 29 54 / 30 20 20 0 EHA 30 58 29 53 / 30 10 10 0 LBL 34 61 30 55 / 40 10 10 0 HYS 34 59 30 54 / 10 10 20 0 P28 39 62 35 57 / 30 0 10 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for KSZ045-046-064-065-077>080-086>088. Freeze Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Friday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WITH RIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG COLORADO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS HAVE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND...IN LINE WITH TRENDS INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION EASTWARD...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PUT SHOWER THREAT TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED IN A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE WEST COULD COMPLICATE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS COULD VARY BY 5-10F. FRIDAY...SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PASS WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA. STRONG FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER THERE SEEM TO BE TWO CAMPS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHER QPF ACROSS OUR CWA. NAM/SREF/ARW/NMM ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AT MOST SOME SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH. I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON (TRANSITIONING SOUTHEAST) WHICH FOLLOWS ECMWF/GFS. WHILE I DO NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO ONE SOLUTION OR ANOTHER...CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY THIS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND CONSIDERING A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS TODAY I STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE). .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 211 PM MST THU NOV 5 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE BEGIN TO COOL. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY SATURDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERATING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER JET ALOFT OF 70KTS IS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP A LATE SEASON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED LOW AND THE GFS HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECASTS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 EXTENSIVE 1500-2000 KFT AGL STRATUS LAYER EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. SATELLITE AND OBS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW ANY TREND TOWARDS VFR TO THE NORTHWEST (UPSTREAM). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN TREND TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERING CURRENT TRENDS I AM NOT SURE IF THIS IS REALISTIC IN THE NEAR TERM. DURING THIS UPDATE I DELAYED THE ONSET FOR STRATUS LIFTING AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON (20-21Z). UPSTREAM LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ON RADAR CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 22-23Z THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z FROM THE NORTHWEST OF BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The HRRR is still trying to figure out the convective evolution tonight. Earlier it appeared a consensus was building for the current area of showers to dissipate as it moved through southern Illinois this evening, and then the main QLCS activity would move back into the area around midnight. The most recent runs are a bit more diverse, building more intense convection northeast through the boot heel 03-06Z and then through west Kentucky mostly by 09Z. This run is showing a more signifant LEWP structure than we have seen before. So this is actually an escalation from what we have been expecting. The bottom line is that the larger-scale models continue to develop plenty of low-level shear and most unstable CAPE to support severe weather in the form of damaging winds and tornadoes as the main line moves through the region late this evening and overnight. There still is the potential for the system to produce little or no lightning. Most of the overnight activity will be east southeast of the area by 12Z. There is a small chance of showers streaming east northeast along the Tennessee border through Friday night, as a larger-scale trough approaches the area. Will keep a small pop down there to handle this possibility. Generally trended toward the warm side guidance for highs and lows through Friday night, then toward the cool side Saturday through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 306 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Confidence is medium but a bit better than previous runs until mid to late next week then timing confidence is very low. The models now are in good agreement of a cut off low...caught up in a weak perturbation...will pass just our northwest. As it passes it pulls gulf moisture to its southeast over the pah fa and create enough lift to produce some showers at least over the southeast portion Monday. Where the models differ is the exact path of the low. Some would bring it through the fa while others keep farther to northwest. They also differ on the western extent of the rain. They do however agree the closed low will open up and accelerate out of the area. The models are in fair agreement of spotty waa type showers in the lows wake. These would be low confidence and would yield very little rain or coverage if they do occur...so most areas dry until the next system arrives. The models continue to be around 24 hours apart on the next system. Confidence in another system is fair but timing of system is low. Right now the GFS is the fastest with the system arriving around 6z Wed. The DGEX is in the middle with arrival Wed aftn. Finally the ECMWF brings it in Thursday around 12z. Some elevated instability was indicated with K index values around 35. Surface based instability is not indicated at this time. Will likely hold off introduction of thunder unless collaboration calls for it and then it would only be isolated at best. Will hold off and see what the extended init yields and use collaboration to try and present a reasonable solution at this juncture. Temperatures will start out below normal and slowly warm to near normal next week that is until the mid to late week system moves through then back below normal expected. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 May flirt with MVFR ceilings at the onset of the period, but they should settle in at lower VFR levels quickly this afternoon. A batch of showers will push through KCGI later this afternoon, and MVFR conditions will be possible with it. Most guidance shows that area dissipating as it tries to reach KPAH and KEVV after 00Z. The main round of convection will move southeast through the area from just after 06Z through 09Z or 10Z. Threw in some gusts with IFR conditions, but did not mention TS at this time. The odds of TS are very slim at any one point. IFR or low MVFR ceilings will persist through daybreak and strong clearing is expected a bit behind the cold front. Northwest winds will be the rule Friday morning. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1203 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Multiple versions of the HRRR are now showing a QLCS moving into the northwest periphery of our area around midnight. The 12Z models continue to show enough shear and elevated instability to support some severe weather in the overnight hours. SPC`s latest day 1 outlook describes the concern pretty well. It still looks like lightning will be very iffy tonight. The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 255 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 Main forecast issue with the near term continues to lie with thunderstorm risk in the first 24 hours of the package. Though models suggest most of the mid level energy will be shunted off to the north of the region, MU CAPES up to around 500J/kg continue to be generated at times by the 00Z NAM and GFS during the overnight hours tonight along and ahead of an advancing cold front. A local study indicates that this would be sufficient to support an isolated tornado or two given the high shear environment (0-6 KM shear 50+ kts) to go along with some pockets of damaging winds. Surface dew points in the lower half of the 60s are also a bit worrisome. However, the weak instability will make it difficult to generate lightning, so we may end up with a few severe showers as opposed to thunderstorms. Does not look like a big outbreak at this time by any means. Furthermore, PWATS should be running near the 99th percentile for this time of year, so will need to monitor for locally heavy rainfall too. Luckily, most areas can take some decent rainfall. The precipitation will clear most, if not all, of the region by early in the day Friday. Clouds may not be so quick to depart, esp over wrn KY. Better chc for a bit of sun on Sat...though temps will be much cooler in the upper 50s to near 60. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 The latter half of the weekend and into early next week, the PAH forecast area will be under the influence of high sfc pressure and slack flow aloft. The only exception will be a minor feature in the mid level flow, a low that is shown to close off in our vicinity and induce an inverted sfc trof. Depending on which med range model you believe, a rain shield may cover all or just part of our area on Mon. For now, we will forecast a short-lived slight chance of measurable rain for roughly the ern half of the region. It will certainly cloud up a bit. The feature will then begin to damp out and move off toward the nern CONUS, leaving weak ridging aloft and increasing swrly low level flow behind. The deterministic GFS has trended faster and deeper with cyclogenesis across the central Plains into the upper Midwest mid week, in fact, the 00Z GFS and EC solutions are similar in pattern but different by 24 hrs. This introduced some doubt in whether the PAH forecast area will receive any rainfall by Wed (Day 7). Furthermore, a low level fetch into our region from ern TX, if it holds, would restrict moisture return for shower and tstm development. For now, slight to low chance PoPs were used in the forecast Tue night/Wed, which is less than what the initialization blend provided. Temperatures are expected to steadily rise throughout the extended forecast period, to near seasonable levels. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 May flirt with MVFR ceilings at the onset of the period, but they should settle in at lower VFR levels quickly this afternoon. A batch of showers will push through KCGI later this afternoon, and MVFR conditions will be possible with it. Most guidance shows that area dissipating as it tries to reach KPAH and KEVV after 00Z. The main round of convection will move southeast through the area from just after 06Z through 09Z or 10Z. Threw in some gusts with IFR conditions, but did not mention TS at this time. The odds of TS are very slim at any one point. IFR or low MVFR ceilings will persist through daybreak and strong clearing is expected a bit behind the cold front. Northwest winds will be the rule Friday morning. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...MEFFERT LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1252 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 WITH READINGS ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 MID MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOW THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE MOST SUN IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT OBS...AND BLEND THE CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING KEEPING TEMPS. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED TO INPUT THE LATEST TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST ALONG THE NC AND VA COAST. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WARM AND MOIST PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH INTO THE DAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION AS WELL. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO RISE BEFORE DAWN AND FURTHER INTO THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LEAVE QUITE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR THIS...HAVE LEFT THE AREA DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SET UP AS PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING MAKING TI INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DAWN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 50 KNOTS WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY DAWN AND WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THOUGH ELEVATED...WILL BRING IN THUNDER BY 10Z IN THE WEST. FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT...WILL BRING IN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE ONE QUESTION IS THAT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL THERE BE A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SPORADIC AND GENERALLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO FOR THIS...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 423 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND DAMPEN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF LOW BREAKING AWAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS SHOW UP BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE DID UNDERCUT SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE TRENDED UP ALONG THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO ARGUE GIVEN THE FORCING AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAINFALL TO OUR AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW ENSUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 713 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 DESPITE SOME 3K FT CIGS AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH IN TN...THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CROSS THE CUMBERLAND REGION THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MAINLY 4K TO 5K FT CIGS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1231 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 955 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Warm start to the day so far. In fact, should SDF stay at 64 for the low for the day, it will tie the record warm minimum temperature for the date, set back in 1977. BWG is at 64 for the day as well, which would break the record last set in 1994. LEX and FFT both reached 59 this morning, so their records are safe. As for precip, we are still on track for a weakening line of showers approaching our northwest forecast area this evening, or perhaps some showers developing over that area. Latest local WRF runs through 06Z and has a stronger line just northwest of the region at that time. This matches up well with the end of the latest HRRR runs as well. This band is in association with the northern vortmax, now over western NE/KS, of the broad trough entering the Plains states. Forecasting out in time, expect the worst of this band to perhaps just clip our northern forecast area...but given the time of day still think the worst it will produce is some brief gusty winds and thunder. The precipitable water available and forcing should be enough to blanket the rest of the region at least with showers Friday morning, so categorical pops still look good. Forecast QPF totals for the event range from around a half inch over the northwest forecast area to a quarter to half inch in the rest of the region. These totals are in line with SPC ensemble means. All that said, the forecast is in pretty good shape. Have sent out a grid update to match current obs and make slight tweaks to pops, that do not affect the overall zone forecast enough for an update. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)... Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Main challenge is the intensity of showers and storms tonight and Friday as a dynamic upper low ejects out of the Four Corners region. Model progs suggest some phasing of the northern and southern streams, but the northern stream will dominate and the southern stream wave will shear out as it lifts quickly NE into the Great Lakes. Surface low will lift to near James Bay by early Friday, with the cold front dragging through the Ohio Valley as it is left behind. Another unseasonably warm day today in the southerly flow ahead of the front. However, clouds will be a limiting factor in temps, and we can`t rule out a few spotty warm advection showers, especially west of I-65. Max temp forecast is near MOS consensus, but with more sunshine than advertised we could approach record highs near 80. By tonight POPs ramp up to categorical, as the low-level jet cranks up near 50 kt ahead of the front. SPC has trimmed the Day 1 Marginal Risk back to near the Mississippi River, but leaves the Day 2 Marginal covering all over central KY and southern IN. Main factor weighing against SVR potential is that the dynamics never quite coincide with the moisture and instability, as it`s a weakening system coming through near the diurnal minimum of instability. Will carry embedded thunder, and gusty showers seem a fairly good bet tonight. Will highlight potential for 40 mph gusts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and any graphics that go out this morning. Normally would be inclined to bump up from guidance mins, but there should be enough precip to drop temps into the mid 60s. Will drop POPs quickly from NW-SE on Friday morning as the front pushes through the northern half of the area. By Friday afternoon, the front does hang up enough to warrant chance POPs south of a Bowling Green to Richmond line into Friday night. Seasomable temps return Friday night as much cooler air finally spills in behind the front. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Cold front will make a slow exit, so we can`t rule out a few lingering showers Sat morning near Lake Cumberland. Otherwise, cool high pressure building from the north will bring quiet weather for the weekend, with temps running slightly below normal for early November. By early next week, lingering upper trofiness left behind by the Friday system will develop into a closed low over Arkansas. This feature will get caught up in broader SW flow aloft, and lift through the Ohio Valley by Monday night. GFS/ECMWF are showing better agreement that this low will draw moisture northward into the Ohio Valley, so will continue to carry 20-30 POP for Monday. Best chance of light rain will be across south central Kentucky. Dry and seasonable pattern Tue-Wed under surface high and shortwave ridge aloft. Vigorous upper low will dig into the western CONUS by Tuesday, then eject out across the Plains mid-week. This could be a significant system for the Ohio Valley, but at this point all sensible wx impacts look to hold off until at least Wed night/Thu. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1230 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2015 Southerly flow ahead of an approaching weather system will continue to transport moisture laden air into the region. Ceilings are expected to remain around low VFR thresholds, though some temporary drops to high MVFR will be possible. In general, expecting a SCT- BKN deck around 2500-3000ft AGL this afternoon. Surface winds will pick up as well with south to southwesterly winds of 10-12kts and some gusts up to 15kts at times. Convection associated with approaching surface front will move in from the west after midnight. Some showers out ahead of the actual front will be possible and those could drop ceilings and vsbys down into the MVFR range. Conditions look to deteriorate after 06/09-10Z as the surface front pushes into the region. Ceilings are likely to drop into the low MVFR range, possibly down into high IFR range. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be likely at all the terminals through the end of the fcst period. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RJS Short Term.....RAS Long Term......RAS Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL ON FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE ARRIVAL OF A 50 KT 925 MB LLJ 06Z TO 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS A RISK FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE SHARP SO WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. TRENDS IN THE HRRR ARE FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AS FAR AS SEVERE GUSTS I THINK THE RISK IS LOW...BUT VALUES OVER 40 MPH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT SOONER FRIDAY MORNING SO POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL...WHICH TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECM/GFS TAKE A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN THE GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH ECM/GFS PICK UP ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL I KEPT THINGS DRY AS NOT MUCH SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HINDERED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY BY WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS IS LESS PRONOUNCED...FURTHER NORTH/WEST AND QUICKER IN BRINING PRECIPITATION IN BY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECM ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A SLOWER CUTOFF SYSTEM. THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECM SOLUTION WOULD HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SPELL OUT A RAINY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES BUT LOW WITH TIMING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY AREAS MAY SEE CIGS THAT BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING IN THE LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 02Z TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR AFTER 03Z...PROGRESSING FROM SW TO NE. KAZO AND KBTL WILL LIKELY SEE THE ONSET OF THE LOWER CATEGORIES. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST BETWEEN 11Z-15Z....SUSTAINED AT 15-20KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 CLOSE CALL FOR GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN. THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ847>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>846. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...JAM HYDROLOGY...04 MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1151 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 Have updated precipitation trends into this afternoon based on the latest radar trends. Small vort max seen in water vapor coincident with low moisture convergence depicted by the latest runs of the RAP is responsible for the showers moving northeastward into CWA out of southern MO. The latest runs of the experimental HRRR have done a good job of capturing this and show this area moving across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during of late morning and afternoon hours. This area will move out of the area by late this afternoon before additional shower and thunderstorms move into the area from the west along a cold front this evening. Otherwise...rest of the forecast still looks good. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon hours. There is quite a bit of shear today, but little in the way of instability. So could see some strong to marginally severe storms with the main threat being damaging winds. Depending on cloud cover and precipitation, high temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have upper 60s to low 70s. Will see winds pickup from the south and gust to near 25 mph at times. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 In the meantime, a line of strong storms to develop along main frontal boundary by late this afternoon and march east with the cold front reaching central Missouri by early this evening. So best area to see strong storms with the main front will be over central Missouri, but as we lose daytime heating, storms to weaken a bit as they slide east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Then by Friday morning precipitation moves out of forecast area as surface ridge builds in. Some concern about a brief shot of showers Friday night and Saturday as a secondary upper level shortwave slides southeast through forecast area. For now have dry conditions, though will have increasing clouds through this period. Otherwise, colder air to filter in with highs only in the low to mid 50s by Sunday. By Monday, surface ridge moves off to the east allowing southerly winds to return once again and temperatures will begin to moderate. By Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some timing, placement and strength differences among the extended models for the next weather system as it approaches Tuesday night and Wednesday. So for now kept slight chance/chance pops for this period. Byrd && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 Large area of showers will continue to move northeast across the St. Louis metro TAF sites through most of the afternoon hours bringing wet runways and low VFR or high MVFR conditions. Otherwise a cold front will move through the area this evening reaching KUIN and KCOU around 01Z and the St. Louis metro taf sites around 06Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with it`s passage along with MVFR and a possible IFR conditions. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible with isolated strong wind gusts. Gusty southerly winds will veer northwesterly behind the cold front and skies will clear from west to east around sunrise as drier air moves into the area. Specifics for KSTL: Showers are expected through 23Z with low VFR or high MVFR conditions. Then a break in the rain is expected until additional showers and isolated thunderstorms move into the area around 05Z ahead of a cold front that will pass through the terminal around 08Z. MVFR, possibly IFR conditions are expected with the passage of these showers and storms. Gusty southerly winds will veer northwesterly behind the cold front and skies will clear from west to east around sunrise as drier air moves into the area. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1010 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 Have updated precipitation trends into this afternoon based on the latest radar trends. Small vort max seen in water vapor coincident with low moisture convergence depicted by the latest runs of the RAP is responsible for the showers moving northeastward into CWA out of southern MO. The latest runs of the experimental HRRR have done a good job of capturing this and show this area moving across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during of late morning and afternoon hours. This area will move out of the area by late this afternoon before additional shower and thunderstorms move into the area from the west along a cold front this evening. Otherwise...rest of the forecast still looks good. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 As cold front approaches western Missouri, will see showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of front over central Missouri by mid morning increasing in coverage and spread east through the afternoon hours. There is quite a bit of shear today, but little in the way of instability. So could see some strong to marginally severe storms with the main threat being damaging winds. Depending on cloud cover and precipitation, high temperatures are hard to pin down. For now have upper 60s to low 70s. Will see winds pickup from the south and gust to near 25 mph at times. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 In the meantime, a line of strong storms to develop along main frontal boundary by late this afternoon and march east with the cold front reaching central Missouri by early this evening. So best area to see strong storms with the main front will be over central Missouri, but as we lose daytime heating, storms to weaken a bit as they slide east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Then by Friday morning precipitation moves out of forecast area as surface ridge builds in. Some concern about a brief shot of showers Friday night and Saturday as a secondary upper level shortwave slides southeast through forecast area. For now have dry conditions, though will have increasing clouds through this period. Otherwise, colder air to filter in with highs only in the low to mid 50s by Sunday. By Monday, surface ridge moves off to the east allowing southerly winds to return once again and temperatures will begin to moderate. By Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some timing, placement and strength differences among the extended models for the next weather system as it approaches Tuesday night and Wednesday. So for now kept slight chance/chance pops for this period. Byrd && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2015 An initial surge of showers is expected late this morning and midday for COU and the STL metro TAF sites and should last for a few hours. Also during this time, MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread the region. After a short break, a new, stronger line of TSRA is expected to develop just ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and track west to east thru, mainly during the evening hours at the TAF sites. This cold front should end any remaining rain threat and rapidly clear out the clouds. Otherwise, southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty during the late morning and then continue thru the evening, veering only slightly from the SW during that time. Cold FROPA set for late tonight for all TAF sites with a moderate NW wind set for Friday. Marginal LLWS conditions approached this evening but will get messy with existing convection also anticipated. Specifics for KSTL: An initial surge of showers is expected late this morning and should last for a few hours and will likely, at some point, be accompanied by MVFR conditions. After a short break during the late afternoon and much of the evening, a new, stronger line of TSRA is expected to move in late this evening just ahead of the cold front. Some stronger gusts may occur at the initial onset of these TSRA but will let subsequent shifts add in as confidence grows. Passage of the cold front should end any remaining rain threat and rapidly clear out the clouds. Otherwise, southerly winds are expected to increase and become gusty during the late morning and then continue thru the evening, veering only slightly from the SW during that time. Cold FROPA set for around 12z/Friday with NW winds to follow. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1044 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE WRN USA WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CNTRL USA. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT INITIATED THE SQLN LAST NIGHT HAS RACED N INTO SD AND THE DRY SLOT IS NOW OVERHEAD. THE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE W AND IT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA FROM 21Z-03Z/THU. FLAT W-WSW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ENTERING THE PAC NW AT THIS TIME. IT WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AND BE MOVING INTO WY/CO AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW. SURFACE: A COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE TO THE S AND E AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY 21Z. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR TROF WILL SEND A SFC TROF INTO NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT. POST-MORTEM: THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY OVER-PRODUCED COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE JUST A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. A SOLID SQLN DEVELOPED ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN BORDER OF CO 00Z-02Z AND TRACKED INTO CNTRL KS/NEB BEFORE FALLING APART. PRECIP AMTS WERE GENERALLY .10 TO .20 BUT SOME LOCATIONS OVER N-CNTRL KS WERE AS HIGH AS .30. THIS LINE PRODUCED SVRL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE PEAK G HERE AT THE OFFICE WAS 49 MPH AT 1208 AM. 550 AM: CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED UP TO THE TRI-CITIES BUT STRATUS IS NEARBY...LURKING BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE STRATUS WILL REINVADE. TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE DRY SLOT HAS OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE AREA. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MID-LVL CLOUDS IN THE TAIL OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED COMMA WILL CONT E...LEAVING A LIMITED AREA OF M/SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUSTAINED SUN TODAY WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT THE SRN FRINGE OF IT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER TIME DUE TO MIXING. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA (HEBRON NE-OSBORNE KS). EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY. BOTH THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MSTR COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE DGZ...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A COUPLE BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON SHWRS WITH THE UPR TROF. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP THE FCST DRY...BUT AT THE LAST MIN DECIDED TO PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FCST. NOT ALL THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE IT...BUT THE 08Z HRRR DOES AND THE NAM/GFS CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE HINT. TONIGHT: EVENING CLEARING/COLDER/DIMINISHING WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 OVERVIEW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL/NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST NIGHTS IN THE 30S... WHILE NORMAL LOWS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER ARE NOW FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LATE PERIOD STORM SYSTEM COULD EVEN BRING SNOW TO SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT WILL LACK SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BE A BIT OF A DUD WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S EXPECT JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THUS WILL ONLY CALL FOR RAIN AND NO SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD FREEZE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL SEE THE EARLIER CLEARING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE VERY QUICK TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND WOULD HAVE THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD STILL BE HOLDING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A NOTORIOUS BIAS OF FORECAST MODELS EJECTING THESE UPPER LOWS TOO QUICKLY OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND THUS MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION MAKER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS FAVORABLE. IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MUCH CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD IN A FORECAST STORM TRACK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STORM TRACK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSED THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS HAS ADVECTED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THIS IS EXECTED TO LINGER THRU MID AFTN BEFORE SCOURING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. CIG HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EXPECT CIGS TO VARY AT THE TERMINALS AT TIMES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN BUT CHCS DO NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE JUST YET AS BETTER CHCS FOR THIS EXIST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...AT LEAST REGARDING IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. ROADS REMAIN WET ALTHOUGH SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. DID INCREASE SNOW PROBABILITIES QUICKER WITHIN THE VALLEY...BUT OTHER FORECAST ASPECTS REQUIRE NO CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 DEFORMATION ZONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST AND FORCING DECREASES. THIS THINKING IS WELL SUPPORTED BY HI-RES (HRRR...RAP) MODELS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LOW LEVEL TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WHERE THE P-TYPE IS SNOW. WEB CAMS INDICATE SNOW ACCUMULATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS REMAINING WET (ROAD TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS). AT ANY RATE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A THIN BAND OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BY THIS EVENING FROM VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AND NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THE VALLEY REMAINING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SFC HARDER TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER...ACROSS EASTERN KITTSON COUNTY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON (AGAIN..1-2 INCHES). WILL MONITOR WEBCAMS FOR ROAD ACCUMULATIONS...BUT OTHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TODAYS RAIN/SNOW? EVENT AND TEMPERATURES. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT RANGE/GLOBAL MODEL POSITIONS OF DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN LOCATION. WILL USE BLEND AND LATER UPDATES WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS AS EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE FA. SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO SD WITH LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN ON SW FA DOORSTEP. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGES AS PCPN MOVES THROUGH WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN IN DRY SLOT AND STEADIER PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE. HRRR WHICH IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RAIN AREA SHOWING THE MORE STEADIER PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. USING A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST POPS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE HRRR HAS THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL MODELS NOW A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH FAVORED INSTABILITY HOWEVER WITH CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NE SD WILL MAINTAIN T MENTION OVER THE FAR SE EARLY THIS AM AS FAVORED INSTABILITY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AFT 12Z. AS FOR SNOW ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST HOWEVER ALL MODELS A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. SREF SNOW PROBABILITIES ALSO NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN FA INTO NW MN. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DO MUCH TODAY. PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE THIS EVENING WITH BEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER NW MN AS COOLER AIR SHIFTS EAST. BETTER PUSH OF COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF TIL FRIDAY SO LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. FAIRLY GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HANGING AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. ALSO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AS WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A QUIET BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BROAD 500MB RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY THRU TUESDAY PM. THEREAFTER TEMPS COOL AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CWFA CREATING A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOLAR...WARM ADVECTION AND S-W SURFACE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND THIS AFTN...WITH IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER...WILL GO AGAINST FCST GUIDANCE AS NOT SURE THEY ARE DOING WELL WITH THE NEAR SFC MOISTURE. GENERALLY GOING TO KEEP IFR CONDS THROUGH AFTN. LIGHT SNOW OVER DVL WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY AND -RA WILL MIX WITH -SN BY LATE AFTN...IMPACTING GFK/FAR AND TVF/BJI IN THE EARLY EVENING. NOTE THAT AWOS UNIT AT DVL IS OUT AND USING NEARBY OBS SUCH AS KRUG...ND AS REPRESENTATIVE BUT IMPROVING FASTER THAN DVL WILL THROUGH THE AFTN. NO AMDS ARE SKED FOR DVL DUE TO THIS SENSOR OUTAGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
108 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOST OF THE MODELS..INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF AROUND THE AREA TODAY. NOT SURE IF THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TO JUST SOME SPRINKLES BREAKING OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO INCREASE AND INDUCE A LITTLE LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INVERSION NEAR 700 MB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE SPRINKLE THREAT. WILL ADD MENTION OS SLIGHT CHC FOR SPRINKLES. THE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT ON AVERAGE MOST PLACES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE SITUATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. A GOOD SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OHIO THIS EVENING BUT DRY AIR BELOW THIS LAYER MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...ALL MODELS SHOW A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET REACHING NORTHERN OHIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO RAPIDLY FILL IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS TO AROUND 90 PERCENT ALL AREAS STRADDLING A 09-15Z WINDOW WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ENHANCED BY ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR STRONG STORMS WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AT BEST. GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER...WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IF CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT A MINIMUM...WE CAN AT LEAST EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z AND BROUGHT A QUICK END TO PRECIPITATION AS VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES. SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DID ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND SO DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS WILL RETURN. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES FOR MANY INLAND AREAS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WE THEN SET UP A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IF THE PAST HOLDS TRUE BETWEEN THE MODELS THE GFS WILL LIFT THE ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOO FAST WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF ENDING UP BEING THE BETTER SOLUTION. SO FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST. ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROKEN/OVERCAST LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THIS LAYER HAS BEEN DECREASING IN HEIGHT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. AS OF 18Z CEILINGS WERE ABOUT 6000 FEET AT TOL AND FDY RISING EASTWARD UP TO 8000 FEET AT YNG AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN HEIGHT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS IN THE 07Z TO 10Z RANGE...PROMPTING A VCSH IN THE TAFS BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BRING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...LIKELY DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO EVEN IFR IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY REACH 30 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS. LEFT OUT A TS MENTION FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE BUT DEPENDING ON THE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT CANNOT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL TS...ESPECIALLY AT TOL AND FDY. BEHIND THE FRONT...THINGS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY. A RESIDUAL 5000 FOOT CEILING LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND WILL STILL BE STRONG AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH TOL...CLE...AND ERI STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA... && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TODAY. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD TOUCH 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A DEFINITE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BUILD WAVES TO AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO GO A BIT LONGER FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...TK/SEFCOVIC MARINE...TK/MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST QUANDARIES...PCPN TIMING ARRIVAL...STRONG/SVR TSTM POTENTIAL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TEMPS. WILL BE MORE THAN LIKELY MAKING SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THRU SAT NIGHT UP TO PRESS TIME...BUT FOR NOW...THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF WHAT MOST LIKELY LOOKS TO OCCUR. AS PRE FRONTAL SHWR AND TSTM AREAL COVERAGE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 05/21Z...NOT EVEN TO THE MS RIVER YET...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL(HRRR)SUGGESTING ALSO...LOOKS LIKE THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL NOT EVEN APPROACH THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WRN FRINGES OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY SUNRISE FRI. HRRR ACTUALLY THEN SHOWING THIS ENTIRE LINE WEAKENING ACROSS THIS AREA AND JUST ABOUT DISSIPATING BY 06/16Z ON FRI. LATEST SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY TOO...AS SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM ITS PRESENT LOCATION ACROSS CNTRL OK AND CNTRL TX...SLOWLY EWD AND MOVING INTO THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON...PUSHING THEN EWD INTO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES BY THE EVENING HRS...AND THEN SE OF MID STATE BY SUNRISE ON SAT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DOES CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN AS THE DAY ON FRI PROGRESSES. SRH SFC-3KT AROUND 350 M2/S2 PER KOHX 06/12Z GFS SOUNDING PROFILE...BUT VERY LOW CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 11 J/KG. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS HERE OR THERE WITH SOME STRONG EMBEDDED TSTMS...BUT THINK ANY SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS LIMITED AT BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...OVERALL EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI W TO E...BUT ALSO EXPECT AS THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE MID STATE...THAT JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT A LINE OF SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL BE KEEPING THIS IN MIND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI ALSO. IN ALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONLY BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH THRU FRI NIGHT. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY TO AT LEAST LINGER ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW SWLY ORIENTATION LINES UP WELL WITH SFC FRONTAL POSITION. SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AT LEAST LINGER ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON SAT TOO...UNTIL A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCES BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT DRY. LATEST EURO SOLUTION MOST PROGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT USHERING IN SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM THE SE ON MON...RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO/SCT SHWRS. OTHERWISE...INTO TUE AND THEN ON VETERANS DAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. MODELS NOW ADVERTISING A WELL DEVELOPED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AS VETERANS DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE MID STATE NEXT THU. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS ON FRI IN THE 70S...BUT AFTER THE FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO ACTUALLY FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...WITH EVENTUALLY A WARM UP TO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BY VETERANS DAY BEFORE THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 68 73 54 62 / 70 80 40 20 CLARKSVILLE 66 73 49 62 / 90 60 20 10 CROSSVILLE 65 72 55 59 / 20 80 90 50 COLUMBIA 67 74 53 61 / 70 70 70 30 LAWRENCEBURG 67 74 55 61 / 40 60 90 50 WAVERLY 67 74 51 62 / 90 60 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... LOW STRATUS CIGS ARE LIFTING OUT...HOWEVER TERMINALS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE BEING REPLACED BY A BKN LAYER THAT SHOULD HOVER AROUND 030/035 FEET. THE HRRR AND ARW MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO MENTIONED VCSH AT KCLL ABD KUTS BETWEEN 19-01Z WITH A TEMPO FOR ISOLATED TSRA BEWTEEN 20-23Z. LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN OVER NIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AND GRADUALLY STALL OUT IN THE VICILITY OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND 10Z. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE VICILITY OF THE FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY HOWEVER THE TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY HINGE ON THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OVER NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ UPDATE... SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE DEVELOPED BOTH ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES EAST UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF MID-UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING... THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEES. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON THIS MORNING SHOWED A CAP LOCATED AROUND 700-750 MB THIS MORNING... WITH A SIMILAR FEATURE OBSERVED ON BOTH THE LAKE CHARLES AND CORPUS SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS/LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEAKENING FOR ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER JACKSON COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING... BUT ANTICIPATE THE GREATEST COVERAGE TODAY TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO BETTER OVERALL LIFT. GPS-MET DATA SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.8 INCHES... AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGER ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. HUFFMAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 72 61 67 50 / 90 60 50 50 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 69 80 66 71 54 / 50 60 70 70 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 72 78 70 72 59 / 20 50 60 70 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...HUFFMAN AVIATION...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .AVIATION.../18Z TAF UPDATE/ CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND 06Z AT KAUS AND 08Z-09Z AT KSAT/KSSF. KDRT WILL SEE THE WINDSHIFT AROUND 00Z. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT 10-15 MPH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ UPDATE... THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z KDRT SOUNDING WAS LIKELY THE CULPRIT FOR KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE ARE GETTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN MARCOS AS IT APPEARS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY AND WE WILL OPT TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ AVIATION... A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA. CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRONT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION. MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND EAST. FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST LOCATIONS. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 60 100 40 50 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 60 100 40 50 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 40 90 50 40 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL... COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS... KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL... TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1034 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .UPDATE... THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z KDRT SOUNDING WAS LIKELY THE CULPRIT FOR KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WE ARE GETTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN MARCOS AS IT APPEARS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY AND WE WILL OPT TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ AVIATION... A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO TSRA AT THOSE TAF SITES. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SHRA OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPOS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS DURING SHRA/TSRA. CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRONT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS..PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL..AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OVERALL SET-UP IS COMPLEX THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT NOR INITIALIZED WELL. LOOKING AT WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON ANALYSIS WISE DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 584-588 DM H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS A 125 KT JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. IN THE LOW-LVLS...925MB AND 850MB FLOW IS SSW AT 25-30 KT THAT IS SUPPLING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 2-2.1". THE KDRT 00Z SOUNDING CAPTURED A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 70 KT. HOWEVER...KCRP WAS DECENTLY CAPPED AT 00Z AND THIS WARM NOSE MAY BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WEAK CAPPING FOR KSAT/KDRT. THIS WEAK CAPPING IS IMPLIED ON THE MLCAPE FIELDS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AS WELL. WITH ALL THAT STATED...WHAT IS NEEDED IS STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT AND FORCING TO PROMOTE VERTICAL MOTION. MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF-ARW RUNS SEEM TO HAVE POORLY ANALYZED A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS MEXICO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BY SUGGESTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS AND ROBUST CONVECTION. THEY HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THUS HAVE DISREGARDED THEIR PROPOSED RAINFALL SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR AS SINCE COME AROUND TO MUCH LOWER TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH SEEM MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF THAT HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THIS EVENT THUS FAR. THE RAP AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AND RESULTANT VERTICAL LIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT...THE ISOLATED 6 INCHES PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED MAY BE TOO HIGH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ROUND PLAYS OUT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ASSESSING SUBTLE FEATURES OVER DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS LIKE MEXICO. WITH SUCH HIGH PWATS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER POCKETS OF 4 TO 5 STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE BUT MAY NOT BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL HILL COUNTRY BUT MORE NORTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT LULL IN HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSES NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND IN A DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD APPEARS VERY LIMITED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 8PM TO 6AM RANGE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG I-35 AND EAST. FOR FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THAT MORNING BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVER-RUNNING THAT WILL HELP LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S MOST LOCATIONS. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSH COLDER...DRIER AIR THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 20 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE NEW AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SOME OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ON THE PLATEAU AND UPPER 40S IN THE AUSTIN AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. BOTH MODELS BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS SUGGESTING A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD BRING CENTRAL TEXAS INTO A MORE INTERESTING DYNAMICAL REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCES IN MODEL OUTCOMES AT THE MOMENT SO WILL REFRAIN FROM FOCUSING ON DETAILS. ONE AGREED UPON DETAIL IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COULD PLUNGE OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MORE TO COME ON THIS WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 61 72 57 65 / 60 100 40 50 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 61 71 56 65 / 60 100 40 50 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 62 73 58 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 71 55 64 / 80 80 30 50 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 74 60 67 / 30 30 20 40 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 59 71 54 65 / 80 100 40 50 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 72 59 67 / 50 80 40 50 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 71 58 65 / 50 100 40 50 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 65 73 61 67 / 30 90 50 40 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 72 60 67 / 50 100 50 50 50 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 73 62 68 / 40 90 50 40 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL... COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS... KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL... TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FROPA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING..THEN BRISK/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. WATER VAPOR/RAP 400MB ANALYSIS SHOWING EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED/DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA...INTO EASTERN KS. A VERY TIGHT/4NM WIDE N/S LINE OF SHRA EXTENDED ALONG THIS FRONT...MARCHING EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH THROUGH EASTERN MN PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. OTHERWISE...INFLUX OF LOWER/LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AS DEW POINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S. LATEST MESOWRF MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON THIS LINE OF CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...MARCHING THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAP SHOWING MUCAPE OF AROUND 500J/KG ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. THINKING TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR EXTENSIVE UPDRAFT...BUT STILL COULD BE A STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT/RAIN EXITS EAST...PLAN ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN WITH GUSTS ON AVERAGE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. COLDER BRISK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. DEEPER MIXING OF COLD 0C TO -3C 850MB AIR SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. COMBINING THESE TEMPERATURES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS/PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM SPELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MODELS SWING A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHER MODEL NOT SHOWING THIS...SO OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH SINCE NAM DOES SHOW RATHER STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVER THE AIR ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NAM 850MB AIR IN THE -2C TO -6C RANGE AT 21Z. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST TROUGH. PLAN ON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE REGION. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER BY A DAY TO A DAY AND A HALF WITH THIS LOW...SO IT IS LIKELY POPS MAY CHANGE WITH TIME. TIMING WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FINE LINE VISIBLE LATE THIS MORNING IN BOTH THE RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA MARKING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 05.15Z HRRR AND CR- HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH THE 05.12Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE MODELS ALL SUGGEST IT WILL COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE 05.15Z RAP AND 05.12Z NAM SUGGEST THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT UNTIL IT HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES. THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY ALL THE HI-RES MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A VERY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN BLOSSOMING THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ONCE THE FORCING INCREASES. WILL MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHORTEN UP THE WINDOW OF WHEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL. THE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO START SCATTERING OUT AND HAVE SHOWN THIS FOR KRST. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN RIGHT ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOR KLSE SO WILL LET THE NEXT FORECAST DETAIL THAT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES. 06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST ONT/NORTHWEST MN...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO BORDER. MDT SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUING TO KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOV... WITH READINGS ACROSS MN/IA/WI AT 07Z MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S. 05.00Z RAOBS AROUND THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A PROMINENT INVERSION NEAR/JUST ABOVE 850MB ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/SATURATION BELOW THE INVERSION. LOCALLY...WEAK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 295K PRODUCING SOME DZ OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND OFFER GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THEIR 03.00Z/04.00Z RUNS. MODELS OFFERING A TIGHT CONSENSUS AS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THEN INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. TREND BY 00Z FRI AND ESPECIALLY BY 12Z FRI FAVORS FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE. IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 850MB MUCH OF TODAY...UNTIL COOLING WITH APPROACH OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH ERODES IT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOWING LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION QUITE MOIST/ SATURATED TODAY. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE SUB-850MB LAYER...AND CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE ANY DZ THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC FRONT THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACH TODAY AND PRESSURES FALL THERE SHOULD BE SOME GENERAL ASCENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SMALL -DZ CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE SMALL DZ CHANCE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL THE CAP ERODING 850-700MB COOLING WITH TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES. STRONGER OF THE SFC-700MB QG/FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGER 500- 300MB PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BULK OF HI-RES/WRF MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER NARROW LINE OF SHRA/ ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES AT ANY ONE LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE A 2 TO 3 HR PERIOD AS THE FRONT PASSES. HAVE TRENDED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO MIRROR THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE FASTER PASSAGE AND NARROW LINE OF SHRA/TSRA...APPEARS MOST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. 200-300 J/KG MUCAPE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAVE TSRA MENTION WITH THE FRONT AS ISOLATED FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT QUITE STRONG...WITH AS MUCH AS 60-70KTS OF 0- 6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY TSRA COULD PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS THE FRONT EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 06Z...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PASS BY 09Z. LIMITED SHRA CHANCES TO THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z AND CARRIED A DRY FCST AREA WIDE AFTER 09Z. AFTER ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY... STRONG SFC-850MB COLD ADVECTION SENDS 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 0C TO +3C RANGE BY 12Z FRI. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS BY FRI MORNING WILL FEEL MUCH MORE NOVEMBER LIKE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/ LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. 05.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF R HGTS TO BRIEFLY RISE FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH/SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THIS TROUGH/WAVE TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD. FRI/SAT CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP AS A COUPLE DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEAKER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FRI...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT PASSES SAT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE FRI AND 0C TO +4C RANGE SAT. SOME 925-850MB MOISTURE CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRI. RESULTING CLOUDS WILL LIMITING WARMING/MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...STRONGER TREND FOR DRYING IN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH MORE DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. EVEN WITH THE COOLER 925MB TEMPS SAT...SAT HIGHS LOOKING TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI. COOLEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT SOME WEST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS MORE IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LAYING/SHELTERED AREAS FOR DECOUPLING AND POTENTIAL OF COLDER LOWS. WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. SFC WINDS LOOKING TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN DECOUPLED THRU THE NIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER....FOR WHAT SHOULD BE THE COLDER OF THE 2 NIGHTS...EVEN AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z SHOW IMPROVING CONSENSUS ON RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. TREND IS NOW FOR A MUCH WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE OUT OF THIS TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY MON/MON NIGHT...WITH RIDGING ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO TUE. BY WED...MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE REGION ON WED WHILE ECMWF SLOWER AND KEEPS SOME RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION INTO MID-WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD SUN/MON...TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE BY WED. DRY/WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/MON AS THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SUN/MON SHAPING UP TO BE A COUPLE OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...NOT AS FAR ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PAST 3 DAYS...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S. WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO PASS MON/MON NIGHT AND MINIMAL SFC REFLECTION OF IT...MON/MON NIGHT TREND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HGTS RISE FOR TUE BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BY WED...BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY UNTIL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES/DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH SUN-TUE TRENDING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MIXING...TRENDED HIGHS THESE DAYS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOWS THRU THE PERIOD AND WED HIGHS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FINE LINE VISIBLE LATE THIS MORNING IN BOTH THE RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA MARKING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 05.15Z HRRR AND CR- HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH THE 05.12Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE MODELS ALL SUGGEST IT WILL COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE 05.15Z RAP AND 05.12Z NAM SUGGEST THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT UNTIL IT HAS PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES. THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY ALL THE HI-RES MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A VERY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN BLOSSOMING THE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ONCE THE FORCING INCREASES. WILL MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHORTEN UP THE WINDOW OF WHEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL. THE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO START SCATTERING OUT AND HAVE SHOWN THIS FOR KRST. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN RIGHT ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY FOR KLSE SO WILL LET THE NEXT FORECAST DETAIL THAT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1015 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 RAIN AND/OR SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING PER RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SLUSH AND BLACK ICE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-32 DEGREES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER WX ADZY FOR THESE AREAS AS PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12-15Z...AND BLACK ICE IS MAKING ROADS TREACHEROUS FOR THE EARLY AM COMMUTE. WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADZY FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS SNOTELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/OBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT 10Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE AND H25 JET ENERGY SHIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL NE. DYNAMICS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND H7 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE...ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z COULD GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. GFS/NAM SUGGEST H7- H8 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS OVER THE TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS W/ LLVL CAG-CPR GRADIENTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 METERS. THIS MAY VERY WELL BE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARLINGTON...BUT PREFER TO SEE A BETTER GRADIENT TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH. KEPT GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH FOR THAT REASON...AND ONLY AROUND 45 MPH FOR BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AS THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE MSLP GRADIENTS TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT MODELED QPF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WOULD SUGGEST A MARGINAL ADVISORY SCENARIO AT BEST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WELL...SO EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN A TYPICAL BREEZY NOVEMBER DAY IN WYOMING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED BREEZY WSW WINDS AT THE SFC. THE WIND PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT OR WAA IN THE MODELS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. INITIALLY...GUIDANCE AGREES WITH PVA AND LEFT-EXIT JET DYNAMICS INITIATING LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD BRING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND AHEAD OF STRONGEST CAA...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL STICK AROUND CONSIDERING MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICK THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...POPS COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF WINS OUT. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SHOULD BREAK OUT HERE SHORTLY LATER THIS MORNING FROM MVFR CEILINGS. SHOULD BE NO WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT THAT COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO KRWL. WILL WATCH THIS FURTHER TO SEE IF ANY IMPACTS DEVELOP. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CONTINUED COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL TERRITORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...MAINLY FRI/SAT NIGHTS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...RJM AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...CLH