Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/04/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
849 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. SEVERAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING 300MB 100+KT JET STREAK BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO FORM TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX SINCE 03Z. LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS AND PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE HINTED AT THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT THE NCAR HI-RES ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO MOST CORRECTLY
DEPICT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS
EAST OF PHOENIX. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF
PHOENIX BUT I COULD EASILY ENVISION 30-40 PERCENT AREAL COVERAGE OVER
THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE 00Z CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH ADVERTISED THESE
AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER POPS APPEAR WARRANTED
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS...ALREADY SEEING VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS/SHOWERS/BL MIXING
TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AND I
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK BETTER WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
LOWER..WITH PERHAPS A FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF OUR
CWA BEFORE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN DRY. THE COMBINATION OF
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 500MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -23C ARE
EXPECTED TO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH MUCAPES AS HIGH
AS 100 J/KG BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE 60S. IT ALSO NOW APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH PRECIPITATION FINALLY ENDING
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LINGERING COLD
AIR KEEPING HIGHS AGAIN DOWN IN THE 60S AT MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD AS FLAT RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK...BUT DRY SHORTWAVE
TROFS EMBEDDED IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MANY LOWER
DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE 70S EACH DAY. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS THEN
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO BRING ANOTHER
COLD UPPER TROF INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS STAYED EAST OF THE PHOENIX TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER MOST HI-RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS NEW ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD AROUND 09Z-12Z WITH CIGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
AROUND 6KFT AROUND DAYBREAK. EXACT LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AS THEY SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOME CLEARING/DRYING IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS RETURNING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING WHEN AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
AFFECT PHOENIX...IF AT ALL. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST STORMS MAY STAY
NORTH...OTHER GUIDANCE HINTS AT SHOWERS AND 6KFT CIGS RETURNING
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PREVAILING RAIN/LOWERED CIGS AT
THIS POINT BUT IT`S A CONCERN WORTH MENTIONING FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BLH
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TOO DRY AT IPL TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. BKN
MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING/DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TYPICAL DIURNAL WEAKENING AFTER 00Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 10 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY 15 TO 25 PERCENT. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/MEYERS/PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
540 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS
SHOWING LIGHT SNOW AS FAR WEST AS KAAT, WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A SNOW
BAND MOVING ACROSS THE RENO-CARSON AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS WEDNESDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE EAST OF RENO. HOWEVER, A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF
INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER WEST AND WE WILL BE MONITORING
CLOSELY THIS EVENING AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADWAYS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS TWO QUICK MOVING STORMS PASS ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
ONE INTERESTING BIT OF INFO FOR TONIGHT...THE OVERNIGHT LOW AT THE
RENO AIRPORT IS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, IF IT
DOES NOT DO SO BEFORE MIDNIGHT IT WILL BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE
LATEST FREEZE IN A CALENDAR YEAR SET ON NOVEMBER 3RD 1992.
LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW, BUT WILL REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN NARROW
BANDS UP TO 20 MILES OR SO DOWNWIND SOUTH OF TAHOE, PYRAMID AND
WALKER.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TODAY, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD LOW DROPS INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON ROADS. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IS OVER PERSHING, CHURCHILL,
MINERAL AND LYON COUNTIES. BEHIND THE SYSTEM UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CARSON RANGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS DOUGLAS, LYON, WESTERN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY, MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SECOND TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY CREEP UP TO 5000-5500 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BRONG
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG TERM CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE: INCREASING POP TO
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, WINDS WERE RAISED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE INVERSIONS WILL KEEP MIXING RESTRICTED TO
UNDER ~8,500 FT ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AS THE VALLEY AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES/WARMS. THE INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO MEAN HIGHS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WILL BE SIMILAR (WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES) TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED
MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS, ALONG WITH INCREASED
WINDS OVER RIDGES AND IN VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50) BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
STILL IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN ENSEMBLE RUNS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE A TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED POP TO 30-50% FOR THE REGION MONDAY AND/OR
MONDAY NIGHT. I HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONG FRONT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS, THE MONDAY SYSTEM LOOKS
MUCH COLDER THAN THE LAST ONE AND HAS NO MAJOR MOISTURE FEED.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS DYNAMIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO EASTERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE (DUE TO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL OVER OCEAN) SO THE
SIERRA COULD SEE A DECENT HIGHER RATIO (COMPARED TO THE RECENT
STORM) SNOWFALL, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
ALSO, WITHOUT A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED, WESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE
MORE RAIN SHADOWING/WIND WITH PRECIPITATION WAITING FOR THE FRONTAL
FORCING TO SPILLOVER.
NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEYS
WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNYDER
AVIATION...
FAST-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 9 PM/05Z NEAR INTERSTATE 80, DROPPING SOUTH
TO BETWEEN LEE VINING AND KHTH BY 1-2AM (08Z-09Z). BRIEF IFR CIGS
AND IFR/LIFR VIS AND EXTENSIVE TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS, A DUSTING TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS KLOL
AND KNFL.
OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL AND A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS
WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND EVENTUALLY WALKER
LAKE. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF -SN/SN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
BETWEEN PYRAMID LAKE AND STAGECOACH/KSPZ, AS WELL AS SOUTH OF WALKER
LAKE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NARROW LAKE
EFFECT BANDS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW
CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACK SOUTHWARD.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP SOME.
SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
339 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA COULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE NORTH EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THOUGH...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
IS TRAILING BY A FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...TODAY LOOKS LIKE A WET
ONE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IS SLOWLY SLIDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. 12Z ANALYSIS HAS IT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. IT WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW LEVELS TO DROP FROM 9 KFT TO AROUND 6
KFT...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING 5 KFT SNOW LEVELS BY DAYS END.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO
POP/QPF. POPS WERE RAISED ALMOST ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING OVERALL WITH
QPF...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED QPF
VALUES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER MEMBERS OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE HRRR AND SREF. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME
CONVECTIVE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. THAT BEING
SAID...PROGGED INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT LIMITED...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED BY THE POTENTIAL BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL THIS TO US WILL PUSH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR SOME CONTINUAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAVE OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE A WHOLE LOT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX SLIDES OUT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN THE
VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS FROM 18Z MON THRU 06Z TUES. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES AND ACROSS THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-02 88:1949 53:1957 56:2012 34:1946
KFAT 11-03 88:1949 56:1935 55:1941 33:1994
KFAT 11-04 86:1931 55:1925 60:1941 30:1973
KBFL 11-02 89:1949 60:1947 58:1992 31:1935
KBFL 11-03 95:1921 58:1994 56:1968 33:1922
KBFL 11-04 89:1931 55:1996 59:1970 29:1935
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE CAZ096.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MEADOWS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...MEADOWS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
606 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 603 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE DUE TO WINDS DROPPING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VALLEYS TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE
REGION...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW
MOVEMENT EASTWARD. 100KT JET SETS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT PROVIDING
DEEP VERTICAL FORCING. BETTER FORCING OCCURS OVER THE NW CWA THIS
EVENING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EASTERN UTAH. 700MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -4C OVER EASTERN UTAH BY 12Z FOR SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR
7000FT. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 8000FT AND ABOVE. THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7K TO 8K FEET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL ALL LEND THEMSELVES TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR AND RAP REALLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS BAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN IT FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST.
THESE MODELS NOT APPEARING TO TAKE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO ACCOUNT
THOUGH NAM/GFS LOOK LIKE THEY DO. EITHER WAY...EXPECT HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO SEE CONTINUED SNOWFALL WITH SOME LULLS FROM TIME TO
TIME. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING NRN
MTNS. THESE MTNS REALLY PREFER NW FLOW AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SW TO W FLOW SO SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IFFY THERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY OVERRIDE WIND DIRECTION AND PRODUCE WARNING AMT
SNOWFALL HOWEVER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. GFS HIGHLIGHTING A
DEFORMATION ZONE TO SET UP OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE NAM SHOWS NOTHING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS BECAUSE IF THE ZONE SETS UP...A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY
PRECIP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE DIVIDE BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE OVER. FOR FRIDAY...A QUICK WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM ID/MT
AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND FLATTOPS BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...EXPECT A RETURN TO SUN WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES.
VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY
REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!
TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACNW
AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PROBABLY SOME
SNOW. ANOTHER WINDY DAY POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER. NRN MTNS LOOK
FAVORED ATTM AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW FAVORING THAT AREA.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT STORM
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOCALLY
TO 50 KTS IN THE SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO MOUNTAINS...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ERN
UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS OVER WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE -TSRA...WHICH
COULD GENERATE SUDDEN WIND GUSTS.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 070-080 MSL WITH IFR
CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. MOUNTAINS BECOME
OBSCURED WITH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ009-010-012-013-018-019.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ008-014.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
452 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW
MOVEMENT EASTWARD. 100KT JET SETS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT PROVIDING
DEEP VERTICAL FORCING. BETTER FORCING OCCURS OVER THE NW CWA THIS
EVENING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EASTERN UTAH. 700MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -4C OVER EASTERN UTAH BY 12Z FOR SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR
7000FT. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 8000FT AND ABOVE. THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7K TO 8K FEET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL ALL LEND THEMSELVES TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR AND RAP REALLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS BAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN IT FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST.
THESE MODELS NOT APPEARING TO TAKE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO ACCOUNT
THOUGH NAM/GFS LOOK LIKE THEY DO. EITHER WAY...EXPECT HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO SEE CONTINUED SNOWFALL WITH SOME LULLS FROM TIME TO
TIME. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING NRN
MTNS. THESE MTNS REALLY PREFER NW FLOW AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SW TO W FLOW SO SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IFFY THERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY OVERRIDE WIND DIRECTION AND PRODUCE WARNING AMT
SNOWFALL HOWEVER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. GFS HIGHLIGHTING A
DEFORMATION ZONE TO SET UP OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE NAM SHOWS NOTHING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS BECAUSE IF THE ZONE SETS UP...A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY
PRECIP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE DIVIDE BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE OVER. FOR FRIDAY...A QUICK WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM ID/MT
AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND FLATTOPS BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...EXPECT A RETURN TO SUN WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES.
VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY
REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!
TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACNW
AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PROBABLY SOME
SNOW. ANOTHER WINDY DAY POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER. NRN MTNS LOOK
FAVORED ATTM AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW FAVORING THAT AREA.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT STORM
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOCALLY
TO 50 KTS IN THE SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO MOUNTAINS...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ERN
UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS OVER WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE -TSRA...WHICH
COULD GENERATE SUDDEN WIND GUSTS.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 070-080 MSL WITH IFR
CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. MOUNTAINS BECOME
OBSCURED WITH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-007-
009-011-017>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-017.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ008-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ009-010-012-013-018-019.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-025-
027>029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
713 PM CST
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS
VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE
ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR
INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.
STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO
REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY
HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY
LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE
INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS
IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER
TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG
WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND
EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT
WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
254 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN
PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS
PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW
TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE
ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT
WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING
AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED
SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
60S OR EVEN COOLER.
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
RC/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LIFR CIGS AND IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
MANY AIRPORTS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO
1/2SM OR LESS VSBY IN FOG. IN ADDITION...FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE
SHOWS LIFR STRATUS QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. BASED ON TRENDS
IN RFD AREA...DELAYED DENSE FOG 1-HR TO TIME BETTER WITH ARRIVAL
OF STRATUS. FOR CHICAGO TERMINALS...MOVED UP TIMING OF FOG AND
LIFR CIGS AT ORD AND MDW. ALSO INDICATED A TEMPO 1/4SM VSBY AT ORD
AND TEMPO 1/2SM VSBY AT MDW THROUGH MORNING RUSH. ITS POSSIBLE
THAT VSBY MAY SOLIDLY DROP TO 1/4SM...EVEN AT MDW...AND PREVAILING
1/4SM WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED. STARTING TO HAVE CONCERNS AT GYY AS
WELL...BUT STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE...SO FOR NOW MOVED UP TIMING OF
LIFR CIGS AND LOWERED VSBY TO 1SM.
RC
FROM 00Z...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. TRENDS FROM TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOW CIGS AND
FOG AND MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIFR CIGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING LATER THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN IL. THE
LOW CIG/FOG BANK SHOULD START OVER WEST METRO AND POINTS WEST AND
THEN EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TO THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...AND BY
DAYBREAK TO GYY. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH IN DENSE FOG - 1/4
MILE OR LESS VSBY - AT DPA/RFD. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INDICATE
LIFR VSBY AT ORD BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN MDW OBSERVING LIFR VSBY
BASED OFF MDW BEING WARMER AND LIKELY TO HAVE A LARGER DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS. THERE WILL BE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WITH TIME LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND ITS POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY MAY IMPROVE QUICKER THAN SHOWN IN
TAF. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LOW CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...COMING UP TO LOW MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 10 KT BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LIFR VSBY AT ORD...MEDIUM AT ORD...MEDIUM IN
TIMING LOWERING VSBY TONIGHT AND IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH IN LIFR CIGS AT ORD AND MDW...MEDIUM IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF
LOW CIGS TONIGHT AND IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH IN REMAINING ELEMENTS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SPEEDS STEADILY INCREASING. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG OVER
THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG
EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WHATEVER FOG DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT
SHOULD ERODE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE...INITIALLY SOUTHERLY BUT
THEN TURNING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS TIME BUT WITH THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER
SPEEDS CONTINUING...COULD SEE FORECASTED HIGHER WINDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
732 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog has already started forming from Champaign and Rantoul
to Decatur, east of the stratus cloud area that is drifting
westward. HRRR and RAP model output has been consistent in
indicating another night of widespread dense fog for a majority of
our forecast area /FA/. The short term models have generally
shown lower fog potential along the Indiana border. However, we
have decided to issue a dense fog advisory for our entire FA from
9 pm to 10 am. Some clearing of the fog will develop from south
to north after 9 am as southerly winds increase and low-mid clouds
begin to arrive from the south. Low temps tonight will likely
settle out only a few degrees below current readings, in the low
to mid 50s. Highs tomorrow may need to be trimmed a couple degrees
to account for the delayed morning heating under fog and low
clouds. Some areas may even see stratus linger well into the
afternoon, which would limit highs even further.
Weather and sky grid updates are already available. Updated temps,
dewpoints, winds will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under
the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over
Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and
persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up
east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around
where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models
depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night,
and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned
that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model
is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the
patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development
with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather
quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57
has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has
been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to
persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and
associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level
moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns
off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high
temperatures around 70 degrees.
Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a
strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This
system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the
California coast, which will eject toward the area starting
Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave
Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect
widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move
through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave
should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak
lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity
minimal.
The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with
near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high
pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western
U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have
temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week.
However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also
support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period
and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog tonight is the primary concern. Forecast soundings are
supported by surface and satellite observations in projecting
widespread dense fog again tonight. HRRR output has progressively
expanded coverage of dense fog eastward toward CMI and the Indiana
border. Dense fog potential appears lower along the Indiana
border, but CMI should be firmly under the 1/4SM FG, especially
since they are already down to 3/4SM BR VV003. The timing of onset
of dense fog is uncertain, but in general, we have bumped it
forward to start by mid to late evening at all terminal sites. The
fog will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as
late as 17z.
Once the fog clears, stratus could hold on through the afternoon
east of I-55. PIA and SPI may mix out the stratus, per the NAM.
Winds will generally remain south in the 5-10kt range over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
714 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
713 PM CST
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS
VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE
ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR
INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.
STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO
REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY
HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY
LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE
INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS
IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER
TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG
WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND
EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT
WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
254 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN
PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS
PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW
TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE
ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT
WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING
AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED
SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
60S OR EVEN COOLER.
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
RC/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LIFR CIGS AND IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. TRENDS FROM TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOW CIGS AND
FOG AND MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIFR CIGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING LATER THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN IL. THE
LOW CIG/FOG BANK SHOULD START OVER WEST METRO AND POINTS WEST AND
THEN EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TO THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...AND BY
DAYBREAK TO GYY. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH IN DENSE FOG - 1/4
MILE OR LESS VSBY - AT DPA/RFD. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INDICATE
LIFR VSBY AT ORD BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN MDW OBSERVING LIFR VSBY
BASED OFF MDW BEING WARMER AND LIKELY TO HAVE A LARGER DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS. THERE WILL BE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WITH TIME LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND ITS POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY MAY IMPROVE QUICKER THAN SHOWN IN
TAF. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LOW CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...COMING UP TO LOW MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 10 KT BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM IN VSBY TRENDS...HIGH IN LIFR CIGS BEING OBSERVED AT
ORD/MDW...LOW-MEDIUM IN EXACT TIMING OF LOW CIGS/VSBY LATE
TONIGHT AND IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SPEEDS STEADILY INCREASING. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG OVER
THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG
EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WHATEVER FOG DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT
SHOULD ERODE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE...INITIALLY SOUTHERLY BUT
THEN TURNING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS TIME BUT WITH THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER
SPEEDS CONTINUING...COULD SEE FORECASTED HIGHER WINDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
607 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under
the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over
Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and
persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up
east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around
where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models
depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night,
and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned
that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model
is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the
patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development
with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather
quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57
has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has
been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to
persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and
associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level
moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns
off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high
temperatures around 70 degrees.
Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a
strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This
system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the
California coast, which will eject toward the area starting
Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave
Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect
widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move
through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave
should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak
lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity
minimal.
The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with
near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high
pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western
U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have
temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week.
However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also
support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period
and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog tonight is the primary concern. Forecast soundings are
supported by surface and satellite observations in projecting
widespread dense fog again tonight. HRRR output has progressively
expanded coverage of dense fog eastward toward CMI and the Indiana
border. Dense fog potential appears lower along the Indiana
border, but CMI should be firmly under the 1/4SM FG, especially
since they are already down to 3/4SM BR VV003. The timing of onset
of dense fog is uncertain, but in general, we have bumped it
forward to start by mid to late evening at all terminal sites. The
fog will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as
late as 17z.
Once the fog clears, stratus could hold on through the afternoon
east of I-55. PIA and SPI may mix out the stratus, per the NAM.
Winds will generally remain south in the 5-10kt range over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but
flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z
ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog
dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear
under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the
Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of
moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been
how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints
and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been
very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover
development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is
being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not
mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints,
the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is
further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for
tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up
on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest.
Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night
progresses with observation of the crossover drop.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends,
followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated
precipitation.
Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as
the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected
track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it
to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to
break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low
level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as
moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into
mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday
night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly
to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear.
Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to
categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as
dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe
probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage.
The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana
border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by
about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more
toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our
area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to
be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above
normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1
inch of rain in most areas.
Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but
significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break
up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon.
Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on
Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this
week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through
Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday
and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though,
so a slow warming trend is expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Southwesterly flow a little light for today, and lighter this
evening. SKC today as the ridge slips to the southeast. SKC
tonight as well, with some clouds edging closer to the southern
terminals. Clearing skies will aid in rapid drop in temps tonight,
and vis drops/fog will likely be a main issue int he forecast
overnight. NAM MOS a little more intense with the
limitations...and the GFS very lax. Best idea on the extent of the
visibility drop will be seeing how much the atmosphere gets a
chance to mix out the very dry column into what is left of the
morning inversion. For now, keeping the forecast to IFR vis for
the pre dawn hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1144 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Early morning fog slowly receded to mainly along and south of
Interstate 70 by mid morning. Visibilities were slowest to improve
underneath a persistent stratus deck slowly progressing northward
from the Ohio River Valley. Some patchy fog remains under the
cloud cover, although more patchy than earlier. Same mechanism
that has slowed the burning off of the fog this morning is
inhibiting the diurnal temp swing and will likely impact the high
temp forecast. Have adjusted the fog mention...and dropped the
highs in the same location. Updates out momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Southwesterly flow a little light for today, and lighter this
evening. SKC today as the ridge slips to the southeast. SKC
tonight as well, with some clouds edging closer to the southern
terminals. Clearing skies will aid in rapid drop in temps tonight,
and vis drops/fog will likely be a main issue int he forecast
overnight. NAM MOS a little more intense with the
limitations...and the GFS very lax. Best idea on the extent of the
visibility drop will be seeing how much the atmosphere gets a
chance to mix out the very dry column into what is left of the
morning inversion. For now, keeping the forecast to IFR vis for
the pre dawn hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1055 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Early morning fog slowly receded to mainly along and south of
Interstate 70 by mid morning. Visibilities were slowest to improve
underneath a persistent stratus deck slowly progressing northward
from the Ohio River Valley. Some patchy fog remains under the
cloud cover, although more patchy than earlier. Same mechanism
that has slowed the burning off of the fog this morning is
inhibiting the diurnal temp swing and will likely impact the high
temp forecast. Have adjusted the fog mention...and dropped the
highs in the same location. Updates out momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible in fog thru about 1430z, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected again for today. The most concentrated
area of low vsbys due to fog will be along and southeast of a
DEC to CMI line this morning with any lingering fog dissipating
quickly by 15z. High pressure will bring the forecast area quiet
conditions thru early this evening and then we will have to
monitor the threat for a bit more widespread fog development aftr
05z Tuesday. Surface winds will be southerly at around 10 kts
today and then back more into a southeast flow at 5 kts or less
tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
500 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Satursday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible in fog thru about 1430z, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected again for today. The most concentrated
area of low vsbys due to fog will be along and southeast of a
DEC to CMI line this morning with any lingering fog dissipating
quickly by 15z. High pressure will bring the forecast area quiet
conditions thru early this evening and then we will have to
monitor the threat for a bit more widespread fog development aftr
05z Tuesday. Surface winds will be southerly at around 10 kts
today and then back more into a southeast flow at 5 kts or less
tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
321 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Satursday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not many concerns this TAF package with VFR conditions continuing at
all TAF sites next 24hrs. Only Scattered cirrus expected through
the period with southerly winds less than 10kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Skies are clear and winds are out of the south. Based on satellite
trends and model guidance, current conditions are expected to
continue remainder of the night. Fog is finally developing in
southeast IL this evening and will likely continue overnight. So,
will have to make some adjustments in the southeast for more light
fog early than current forecast. Will not issue fog advisory at
this time, but will continue to monitor for possibility later
tonight. Update will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the
upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are
approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave
across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix
out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s
across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out
from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue
over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due
to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several
hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge
axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows
some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement
all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some
better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out
this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog
mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of
I-70 to address this concern.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states
Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL
forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to
central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low
70s and light southerly winds.
By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep
trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low
level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the
development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have
increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will
continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low
cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low
70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday.
Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the
Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in
the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for
a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest
model trends
Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure
settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This
should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not many concerns this TAF package with VFR conditions continuing at
all TAF sites next 24hrs. Only Scattered cirrus expected through
the period with southerly winds less than 10kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
700 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER IN LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPPER TROUGH SEEN DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US ON WATER VAPOR WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE MORE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD WX...THOUGH DETAILS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
(ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW LEVEL RIDGE) BRINGS LOW STRATUS AND FOG
POTENTIAL INTO QUESTION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY ADVECTING MORE MOIST NEAR SFC AIR INTO THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOW WITHIN 975-925 LAYER EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE MAKES STRATUS VERSUS FOG A DIFFICULT
FCST...ALTHOUGH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING SUGGEST DENSE FOG THE GREATER CONCERN INITIALLY.
LATEST NAM/GFS MOS AND FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ADVISORY
LEVEL FOG EVENT INTO OUR IN/MI ZONES...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES AND LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES POINT TO BETTER FOG/LOW
STRATUS CHANCES WEST OF THE IWX CWA. GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS
OPTED TO HOLD CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST (PATCHY FOG...BEST CHANCES
FAR WESTERN ZONES)...BUT DID OPT TO BUMP UP SKY COVER A BIT
(PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE). HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT/PERSISTENCE OF ANY STRATUS/STRATOCU.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
DEEP AMPLITUDE WRN CONUS TROF TO SLOWLY EDGE INTO NRN/CNTL PLAINS
THU AFTERNOON. DEEPLY ROOTED WARM SECTOR TO START WITH SUSTENANCE
FOR CONTD MUCH ABOVE TEMPS WED NIGHT/THU. BASE OF TROF EJECTS NEWD
TOWARD MID/UPR MS VLY THU NIGHT AS IT TRANSITIONS TO NEUTRAL TO NEG
TILT. OPEN GOMEX FEED PROVIDING WIDE BERTH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS
INTO SRN IN WITH 1000-850MB LAYER MIXING RATIOS ON ORDER OF 11-12
G/KG. CONT TO HOLD PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THU NIGHT IN LINE WITH
STRONGEST LLVL MFLUX CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH SEVERAL SSWLY JETLETS
40-60KTS...WITH FIRST NEARING WRN CWA AROUND 03 UTC. TIMING ALSO
DEEP LAYER UL DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD 140-
150KT JET. HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH NAM MUCAPE PROFILES ON ORDER
OF 250-500 J/KG AND GIVEN STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT ON NOSE OF LLVL JET
SEGMENTS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC TSRA MENTION THU NIGHT...SWEEPING EWD
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN SHARP TRANSITION INTO
STRONG/DEEPENING CAA TO AFFORD NON-DIURNAL FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRI...WITH SLIGHT LOWERING OF DERIVED MAX TEMPS.
THEREAFTER...NORTHERN STREAM TROF RATHER BROAD AND LACKING SIG
UPSTREAM LOADING AND APPROACH OF LATITUDINALLY ELONGATED SFC
ANTICYCLONE HAVE CONTD DRY UNTIL POSSIBLE WAA EVENT LATE IN PERIOD
TOWARDS DY7 WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
VFR CONDS XPCD FOR MOST OF THE PD. EXCEPTION STILL PSBL TWD
SUNRISE CORRESPONDING TO POOLED LL MSTR OVR SWRN OH ATTM. SIMILAR
POCKET OF MSTR OVR CNTRL/SRN IL YIELDED EXTENSIVE STRATUS/IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING OF WHICH WERE EXTREMELY SLW TO MIX OUT.
HWVR SFC OBS INVOF TERMINALS INDICATE POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR OVR
NRN IN THUS FVRG MIFG/SCT-BKN STRATUS DVLPMNT IF ANYTHING. NOT
SOLD ON MOS IMPLIED POTENTIAL GIVEN CONSECUTIVE RAP SOLUTIONS
INDICATING LL DRY AIR WINNING OUT HERE AND CURRENT IL STRATUS
POCKET REDVLPG AND EXPANDING GENERALLY NWD OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP
W/PRIOR MVFR RESTRICTION
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1121 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
An area of dense fog continues to move north towards Garnett.
Because widespread visibilities are reported to be a quarter of a
mile in southeast KS, have issued a short fog advisory for
Anderson and Coffey Counties. There is a small chance the fog may
linger beyond 9 am as the RAP forecast soundings are slow to mix
out the boundary layer. However think visibilities would begin to
improve and no longer be down around a quarter of a mile. Will
monitor trends.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a cut off low still over the ARKLATEX
region while the mean westerlies remain to the north along the
Canadian boarder. An upper level trough was over the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, relative high pressure had shifted east
across the OH river valley with a general area of low pressure from
the southern high plains through the northern plains.
The weather is expected to be benign today and tonight with no
obvious forcing upstream and the models showing no forcing to impact
the area. Deep layer moisture is also expected to be lacking.
Therefore the forecast expects mostly sunny skies today. While
models are not quite as warm at 925MB as temps were yesterday, I
don`t see any airmass change from yesterday. With this in mind have
highs in the upper 70s to near 80 once again. Overnight, models
continue with southerly low level winds and show moisture trapped
under the nocturnal inversion advecting into eastern KS. Both the
NAM and GFS increase the boundary layer moisture with forecast
soundings suggesting there could be some stratus advecting into the
forecast area. Because of this have trended the sky cover towards
partly cloudy for now, but that may not be enough as the stratus
over eastern OK this morning could be up here tomorrow morning. With
the warm air advection and potential increase in clouds, have also
bumped up lows into the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Areas of stratus will gradually lift by early afternoon Tuesday as
the sfc temperatures quickly mix out to near 900 mb in the
afternoon. Pressure gradient through the column becomes very tight
through the region as the southwest trough deepens over the Four
Corners Region. Sfc winds were increased Tuesday and Wednesday
at 20to 25 mph sustained with gusts near 35 mph in the afternoon.
The gradient barely wanes during the overnight hours through
Thursday as the sfc low strengthens towards eastern CO. The moisture
advection in the CWA should help to offset the drier air mixing down
to the sfc as high temperatures rise once again to the mid and upper
70s. In terms of fire weather, threat remains marginal at this point
but will continue to monitor dewpoints especially over north central
KS where fuels are quickly drying.
Latest changes with the approaching trough were the delay in the
timing of the trough axis coming into the region in addition to the
frontal boundary placement. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
approach areas north of Interstate 70 closer to sunrise Thursday as
a leading vort max ejects northeastward over Nebraska. It appears a
secondary embedded vorticity lobe further south lifts precip into
east central areas during the day on Thursday before the cold front
develops additional activity near 00Z. Main uncertainty lies with
how strong the initial wave will be and therefore the amount of
rainfall coverage. By late afternoon, models are becoming more
similar in the position of the cold front oriented southwest to
northeast from Council Grove, to Manhattan and Hiawatha. Strong
speed shear is expected near the boundary in upwards of 50 kts
through 6 KM. Instability is minimal and resides primarily in the
500-700 mb layer. Elevated thunderstorms are likely along and ahead
of the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening,
especially over east central and far northeast Kansas. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. Behind the boundary,
lingering light rain showers are possible. High pressure quickly
builds over the region by Friday with dry and cooler air settling in
for the weekend. Highs are generally in the upper 50s with overnight
lows in the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Sites will stay VFR until late evening, before conditions begin to
deteriorate. With low level moisture moving in, conditions are
expected to degrade between 06Z-07Z. Low stratus may be combined
with dense fog, especially at TOP/FOE. Currently have IFR
cigs/visbys for TOP/FOE, although periods of visibilities under 1SM
are possible. Fog and stratus are currently forecast to linger into
the late morning or early afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
An area of dense fog continues to move north towards Garnett.
Because widespread visibilities are reported to be a quarter of a
mile in southeast KS, have issued a short fog advisory for
Anderson and Coffey Counties. There is a small chance the fog may
linger beyond 9 am as the RAP forecast soundings are slow to mix
out the boundary layer. However think visibilities would begin to
improve and no longer be down around a quarter of a mile. Will
monitor trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a cut off low still over the ARKLATEX
region while the mean westerlies remain to the north along the
Canadian boarder. An upper level trough was over the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, relative high pressure had shifted east
across the OH river valley with a general area of low pressure from
the southern high plains through the northern plains.
The weather is expected to be benign today and tonight with no
obvious forcing upstream and the models showing no forcing to impact
the area. Deep layer moisture is also expected to be lacking.
Therefore the forecast expects mostly sunny skies today. While
models are not quite as warm at 925MB as temps were yesterday, I
don`t see any airmass change from yesterday. With this in mind have
highs in the upper 70s to near 80 once again. Overnight, models
continue with southerly low level winds and show moisture trapped
under the nocturnal inversion advecting into eastern KS. Both the
NAM and GFS increase the boundary layer moisture with forecast
soundings suggesting there could be some stratus advecting into the
forecast area. Because of this have trended the sky cover towards
partly cloudy for now, but that may not be enough as the stratus
over eastern OK this morning could be up here tomorrow morning. With
the warm air advection and potential increase in clouds, have also
bumped up lows into the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Areas of stratus will gradually lift by early afternoon Tuesday as
the sfc temperatures quickly mix out to near 900 mb in the
afternoon. Pressure gradient through the column becomes very tight
through the region as the southwest trough deepens over the Four
Corners Region. Sfc winds were increased Tuesday and Wednesday
at 20to 25 mph sustained with gusts near 35 mph in the afternoon.
The gradient barely wanes during the overnight hours through
Thursday as the sfc low strengthens towards eastern CO. The moisture
advection in the CWA should help to offset the drier air mixing down
to the sfc as high temperatures rise once again to the mid and upper
70s. In terms of fire weather, threat remains marginal at this point
but will continue to monitor dewpoints especially over north central
KS where fuels are quickly drying.
Latest changes with the approaching trough were the delay in the
timing of the trough axis coming into the region in addition to the
frontal boundary placement. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
approach areas north of Interstate 70 closer to sunrise Thursday as
a leading vort max ejects northeastward over Nebraska. It appears a
secondary embedded vorticity lobe further south lifts precip into
east central areas during the day on Thursday before the cold front
develops additional activity near 00Z. Main uncertainty lies with
how strong the initial wave will be and therefore the amount of
rainfall coverage. By late afternoon, models are becoming more
similar in the position of the cold front oriented southwest to
northeast from Council Grove, to Manhattan and Hiawatha. Strong
speed shear is expected near the boundary in upwards of 50 kts
through 6 KM. Instability is minimal and resides primarily in the
500-700 mb layer. Elevated thunderstorms are likely along and ahead
of the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening,
especially over east central and far northeast Kansas. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. Behind the boundary,
lingering light rain showers are possible. High pressure quickly
builds over the region by Friday with dry and cooler air settling in
for the weekend. Highs are generally in the upper 50s with overnight
lows in the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR conditions are expected through the day today with dry air in
place. Main concern is tonight with models advecting moisture into
eastern KS beneath the nocturnal inversion. Most guidance is
pointing towards fog or stratus impacting the terminals with the
SREF indicating about a 70 percent chance for VSBY below a mile.
Confidence in forecasting VLIFR 24 hours out is low, but have
inserted MVFR VSBY as a first step and later shifts can adjust
conditions down if models continue to signal the restrictions.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
724 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 724 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
The 13km RAP (RUC) guidance having good initialization with
visibilities dropping over parts of Southeast Missouri and
Southwest Illinois. These areas were the last to clear, so any
boundary layer moisture trapped across this area did not have
sufficient time to mix out with the daytime insolation. The RAP
guidance suggests that the wind/pressure gradient will remain
fixed along the western edge of the WFO PAH forecast area, closer
to the Ripley and Carter County areas of Southeast Missouri. If
the winds do not materialize as well in these areas, a dense fog
may need to be added to these areas later tonight.
Otherwise, a Dense Fog will be in effect from 9 pm to 9 am CST for
Southeast Missouri (mainly for counties bordering Interstate 55,
then across Southern Illinois in an area bordered by Rouote 13 to
the south and Interstate 64 to the north. In Northwest Kentucky
and Southwest Indiana, the main axis for fog development will be
from Owensboro Kentucky to Winslow Indiana.
The areas in Southeast Missouri, Northwest Kentucky, Southwest
Indiana, and Southwest Illinois will likely see visibilities drop
this evening, maxing out between midnight and 3 am CST in
coverage. A cloud layer moving in from the southeast overnight will
disrupt the radiational loss with time, as well as create slight
mixing. With this in mind, anticipate fog will gradually lift, mix
out into the form of stratus with time. Southeast Missouri may see
the fog lift after 3 am CST, but this may depend on the timing and
coverage of the approaching cloud cover from the south.
Anticipate that part of the Dense Fog Advisory may be cancelled a
little earlier, especially over Southeast Missouri, Southwest
Indiana, and Northwest Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 447 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Main concerns for the short term portion of this forecast package
are cloud/fog development tonight, and then storm chances Thursday
night.
The low clouds have been gradually eroding this afternoon, but am
not sure if they will completely clear Perry county Missouri and
Illinois. The remainder of the area should clear out shortly. For
tonight, most guidance indicates that MVFR ceilings will spread
northwest over the region through the night. This should prevent
fog from developing over the southern third to half of the area.
Farther north, fog may develop before the clouds arrive, so there
may be a period of fog before daybreak. Also will have to watch
for fog development expanding from the cloud deck left behind from
this afternoon. Will not issue a dense fog advisory at this time
given the complicating issues.
A storm system will be weakening as ejects northeast from the
southwest states Thursday into Thursday night. The flow aloft will
be strengthening, as will the flow over the entire column. We
already have decent surface moisture, and consensus guidance takes
surface dewpoints into the low to mid 60s ahead of the system and
its cold front Thursday. Precipitable water values will be an inch
and a half or more ahead of the front. The NAM hints at more
discrete convection, but with the forcing, cold front and
nocturnal timing, figure that it will be linear. The low and deep
layer shear will be significant, and could support severe storms
with damaging winds and even tornadoes, regardless of the
convective mode. Typically, this time of year we are struggling
for moisture and instability, but moisture should not be a
problem, so it is just a matter of lapse rates. This definitely
bears watching closely.
Some guidance is indicating the potential for drizzle late tonight
and Wednesday morning. With the fog/low cloud debate above will
not mention drizzle at this time. It does not look like we will be
clearing much of the area Wednesday. Much of the area may not see
much sunshine until the front has passed. Decided to stay on the
mild side of guidance for lows, and the cool side for highs
through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Medium to high confidence in the extended through the weekend...
medium confidence into next week.
Models are in fair agreement on system exiting the area Friday
morning. There is some timing differences among the models and with
successive runs of the individual deterministic models. However the
timing difference is mostly less than six hours for the latest
runs...which leads to higher than average confidence in the
solutions. Friday morning convective parameters for thunder will be
limited to the far eastern counties at the most. The slowest
solutions still have the rain out of here after 15z Friday.
Depending on the extended init and collaboration will try and follow
that scenario. Any severe threat should be out of the area after 12z
Friday but will monitor closely for any lingering threat after that
time frame. For the weekend expect cooler and dry conditions under
the influence of high pressure. By late Monday the models are
hinting at a weak short wave generating some precipitation over the
area. Convective parameters indicate no surface based convection. In
contrast there will be some elevated instability with K index values
in the mid 30s. Finally the next big system will move into the area
Wednesday or Thursday depending on which solution you choose between
the GFS and the slower ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 447 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Models are attempting to develop some very minor precipitation
late tonight-early tmrw, most likely in the form of drizzle.
Could see MVFR conditions developing around 06Z with a gradual
lowering to IFR levels late. The best window for drizzle appears
to be near 12Z and well into/thru the morning, so conditions will
be slow to improve through the course of the day, esp east.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ075>078-
080>087.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-
100-109-110.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for KYZ018-019.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1257 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WSR-88D STILL SHOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP CONCENTRATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KY...THEREFORE HAVE
ONCE AGAIN LEANED IN THAT OVERALL DIRECTION THIS UPDATE GIVEN THAT
TREND AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO GIVEN SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES SEEING DROPS IN VIS WOULD
EXPECT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT...SO ADDED THAT THIS UPDATE TO MAINLY VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION TO THOSE UPDATES DID MAKE UPDATES TO TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WSR-88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY STILL
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE GRADIENT OF RAIN VERSUS NO RAIN WILL BE QUITE TIGHT.
MESO MODELS AND EVEN SOME OF THE LOWER RES MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH ACTIVITY STRUGGLING TO MAKE AS FAR
NORTH AS EVEN JACKSON. SREF PROBS OF GREATER THAN A HUNDREDTH OF
AN INCH ARE GENERALLY REMAINING INTO THE 10 PERCENT RANGE
OVERNIGHT AROUND JACKSON WITH WHITLEY...BELL...HARLAN...AND
LETCHER HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE DID OPT TO MAKE THE POP GRADIENT TIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT NEXT UPDATE POSSIBLY TIGHTENING MORE.
ALSO GIVEN REPORT OF SOME FOG ALREADY FORMING EARLY THIS EVENING
DID PUT MORE FOG IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
UPDATED TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE REGION WAS UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US CANADIAN
BORDER. A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A
CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN TX. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING BY IN SW FLOW ABOVE. THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS STILL
OCCURRING ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE THE PERIOD...THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ERODING ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO END THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A SFC
WAVE WILL TRACK BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL GET
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE NO
FURTHER NORTHWEST AND THE 12Z NAM SHARPENING UP THE GRADIENT ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ALTHOUGH THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING A BIT HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OPTED TO SHARPEN
UP THE GRADIENT IN POPS FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH LEFT THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...AND GENERALLY
KEPT THE I 64 CORRIDOR NORTH DRY. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD EXPERIENCE FOG
FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WE WILL BE LOCKED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE BY
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS QUICKLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WAITING TO BE ENERGIZED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PROLONG...OR REDEVELOP...RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
HANG ONTO A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE AREA WITH SOME ON THE MID SLOPES. TO THE
NORTHWEST...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THIS IN THE TAFS WITH THE MORE
NORTHERN TAF SITES SEEING MORE REDUCED VIS WHERE THE SOUTHEAST
SEEING LOW STRATUS IN SOME AREAS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT LATER
IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING AT MOST SITES
AND THEN BECOMING VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATER IN THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1236 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Will update the forecast to include a Special Weather Statement for
Patchy Dense Fog. The combination of clearing skies, calm winds, and
recent rainfall is allowing for patches of fog, some of which will
likely become dense. Most concerned about areas north of the
Parkways where we may need to upgrade to a Dense Fog Advisory for
the overnight and morning commute. Southern KY is expected to stay
more under low stratus but expect there could be some issues there
toward dawn as well. Will continue to monitor trends/obs/webcamse
over the next few hours.
Previous Update...
Issued at 810 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Low clouds run across our southern few rows of counties, whereas up
north is covered by fairly thick deck of mid/high clouds. The latter
should thin some, especially over our southern Indiana counties.
However, high-res guidance continues to indicate a narrow east-west
oriented band of clouds to fill back in at around 400 mb. These
clouds will be pivotal in preventing the formation of fog overnight,
as winds are calm at most stations and dewpoint depressions are low.
Will continue to carry patchy fog over the northern two/thirds of
the area and chances for light rain across the south. No need for a
zone update at this time.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.
For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.
For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.
The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.
Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2015
Main concern overnight will be for fog and low ceilings at the TAF
sites. Upper clouds are clearing to the east, and with clear skies,
calm winds, and recent rainfall patches of dense fog have developed.
SDF is already on the verge of going MVFR, so expect conditions to
gradually deteriorate toward dawn. Periods of vis below a mile seem
reasonable given that LOU is already 1/2 SM. Confidence is lower at
BWG due to low stratus that will slowly work northward, so have gone
with a combo of IFR vis and cigs toward dawn. LEX is expected to
progress downward the same as SDF, only delayed by an hour or two as
upper clouds are just now beginning to clear.
Otherwise, expect improvement through the mid morning with some
light NE winds and upper level clouds through the afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1057 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Widespread dense fog has developed across most of our counties,
except where cloud cover lingers in our southern west kentucky
counties. The clouds are making very slow progression north, so
believe the greatly reduced visibilities will continue. We went
ahead and issued a dense fog advisory for all but our southern
west kentucky counties through 15z.
UPDATE Issued at 516 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Fairly high confidence that most of this period will feature
warm and rainfree conditions with afternoon highs getting back
into the 70s.
A southern stream upper level low will make its way from the
TX/LA Gulf coast will gradually work its way ne into the TN River
Valley by Monday/Monday evening. It still appears as though most
of the moisture and associated precip will stay just south/east
of our forecast area...though much of wrn KY could experience
quite a bit of cloud cover. H50 ridge will then build into the
region on Tuesday. As heights rise...so will temps. As long as low
level cloud cover does not become an issue, we should see many
locations pop into the mid 70s Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue Wed/Thu as
deep swly flow develops ahead of trofing out over the swrn United
States. This trof will eventually translate ene toward the region
Thu night into Friday. An associated sfc cold front will also
approach during that time, and will bring a very good chc of
showers/sct thunderstorms with it. This system will need to be
monitored for a few strong or even isolated severe storms. Am a
bit concerned with the potential strong wind fields ahead of the
ejecting wrn H50 short wave that will combine with rich
moisture/sfc dew point around 60 as the sfc front moves in. In
addition, 12z ECMWF suggests SB CAPES may be running above 200
J/KG in some locations (modest, but sufficient to support cool
season QLCS in a high shear/low CAPE environment). For now, given
we are talking about 4+ days out, will just introduce chc of
isolated svr storms in the HWO product. Still lots of time to
monitor the svr potential with this system. May also
Drier and much cooler conditions will take over one the front
passes next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 516 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Fog is possible overnight, mainly KCGI/KPAH, but we`ll keep a
close eye further north as well. Otherwise cloud shield slowly
moves south/east...and should ultimately break all terminals
during course of day tmrw.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for KYZ003>005-007-010-
014>016-018>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BP2/RST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1142 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Will update the forecast to include a Special Weather Statement for
Patchy Dense Fog. The combination of clearing skies, calm winds, and
recent rainfall is allowing for patches of fog, some of which will
likely become dense. Most concerned about areas north of the
Parkways where we may need to upgrade to a Dense Fog Advisory for
the overnight and morning commute. Southern KY is expected to stay
more under low stratus but expect there could be some issues there
toward dawn as well. Will continue to monitor trends/obs/webcamse
over the next few hours.
Previous Update...
Issued at 810 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Low clouds run across our southern few rows of counties, whereas up
north is covered by fairly thick deck of mid/high clouds. The latter
should thin some, especially over our southern Indiana counties.
However, high-res guidance continues to indicate a narrow east-west
oriented band of clouds to fill back in at around 400 mb. These
clouds will be pivotal in preventing the formation of fog overnight,
as winds are calm at most stations and dewpoint depressions are low.
Will continue to carry patchy fog over the northern two/thirds of
the area and chances for light rain across the south. No need for a
zone update at this time.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.
For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.
For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.
The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.
Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Low clouds have hung on at KBWG, but are south of the SDF/LEX
corridor. With weak overrunning in the low levels expect these
clouds to remain near KBWG for most of this period...dropping again
into the IFR range overnight and into the morning hours Monday. A
concern for the SDF/LEX corridor toward daybreak is fog, as
temp/dewpoint spreads are low at this time. Sky cover should be thin
enough to allow for some cooling, but latest RAP shows a thin band
of clouds that could move across that corridor before daybreak,
short-circuiting the chance for fog. Given how narrow the band looks
to be, cannot pull fog chances out of the TAFs, but did make it a
tempo group at SDF.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY SOLID MVFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 04/06Z
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...AT MAINLY KTXK...KELD...AND
KMLU TERMINALS. HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTN ON WED...WITH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NE TX...WHERE S-SE BREEZES INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE
UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT
10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH
MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL
DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS
NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW
CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES
IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY
THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40
MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80
TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60
ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70
GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50
LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
901 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DID MANAGE TO ALLOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO START TO RISE IN OHIO. THIS WAS RATHER WELL
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR RUN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE STATISTICAL
PRODUCTS FAIL TO ADEQUATELY CAPTURE IT. AS A RESULT...DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. LOWS WERE SUMMARILY REDUCED
FOR MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. LIKEWISE...WITH A BIT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN
OHIO.
OTHERWISE...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN AS DEWPOINTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASING MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN BACK INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...EVEN WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS RIDGE WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES INTO FRIDAY.
THEN...LOW PRESSURE DIGGING TOWARD EASTERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO
SHUNT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH WARM PREFRONTAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POPS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DIMINISH FM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY FRONT/SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND RESTRICTION-
FREE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO PULL NORTHWARD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAX
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS IS PROGGED WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
631 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DID MANAGE TO ALLOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO START TO RISE IN OHIO. THIS WAS RATHER WELL
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR RUN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE STATISTICAL
PRODUCTS FAIL TO ADEQUATELY CAPTURE IT. AS A RESULT...DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
LOWS WERE SUMMARILY REDUCED FOR MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN AS DEWPOINTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASING MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN BACK INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...EVEN WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS RIDGE WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES INTO FRIDAY.
THEN...LOW PRESSURE DIGGING TOWARD EASTERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO
SHUNT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH WARM PREFRONTAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POPS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DIMINISH FM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A
SECONDARY FRONT/SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND RESTRICTION-
FREE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO PULL NORTHWARD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAX
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS IS PROGGED WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND
RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO
KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN
OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS
GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED
ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W
AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN
TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE
GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING -
SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY
MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL
BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E
TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW
VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT
NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD
BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD
KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP
TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN
ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER
WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS
THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING HRS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN ALONG WITH ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES. IF ANY PCPN
OCCURS...DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD DECK WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE. GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND SINCE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...NO MENTION OF PCPN WAS
INCLUDED IN FCST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS LINGERS
TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED IN FCST LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...
MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-
30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES
LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR
COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15-
25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
309 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW
VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT
NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD
BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD
KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP
TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN
ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER
WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS
THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING HRS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN ALONG WITH ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES. IF ANY PCPN
OCCURS...DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD DECK WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE. GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND SINCE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...NO MENTION OF PCPN WAS
INCLUDED IN FCST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS LINGERS
TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED IN FCST LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1207 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE W
STATES...AND A RESULTANT RIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SWING OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LINES UP FROM ALBERTA
THROUGH NV AND S CA. LOOKING NEAR THE SFC WE WILL HAVE A BROAD
TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
/ONLY CLOUDS AND MAINLY N CLOSER TO DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE 500MB
RIDGE/. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 900MB WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THOUGH...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF INCREASED DEW POINTS JUMPING INTO
THE 50S.
SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E. THIS WILL BE AS NEARING SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ACROSS MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. EVEN ON WEDNESDAY...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD STAY W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR N AND
STRENGTHENING S FLOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO JUMP TO 11-15C AND SFC
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S /OR 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL/.
LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS E MN AND POSSIBLY THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO BY 12Z THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM E
MN TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT. YES THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
DRIER FOR THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING FROM THE S
PLAINS THROUGH IA CONSOLIDATES ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIP EXITS OVER
THE FAR W...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN. 850MB TEMPS
ONLY GET DOWN TO -1 TO NEAR -3C BY 12Z FRIDAY ON N-NNW WINDS. THE
COLDEST AIR OF -4 TO -5C SLOWLY EXPANDS ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SFC LOW EXITS
INTO S QUEBEC AND THE BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH IS ABOVE 800MB...AND
ABOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE COOL W-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C SATURDAY
CHANGING TO MORE OF A WAA FLOW SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING HRS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN ALONG WITH ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES. IF ANY PCPN
OCCURS...DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD DECK WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE. GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND SINCE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...NO MENTION OF PCPN WAS
INCLUDED IN FCST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS LINGERS
TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED IN FCST LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
653 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE W
STATES...AND A RESULTANT RIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SWING OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LINES UP FROM ALBERTA
THROUGH NV AND S CA. LOOKING NEAR THE SFC WE WILL HAVE A BROAD
TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
/ONLY CLOUDS AND MAINLY N CLOSER TO DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE 500MB
RIDGE/. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 900MB WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THOUGH...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF INCREASED DEW POINTS JUMPING INTO
THE 50S.
SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E. THIS WILL BE AS NEARING SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ACROSS MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. EVEN ON WEDNESDAY...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD STAY W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR N AND
STRENGTHENING S FLOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO JUMP TO 11-15C AND SFC
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S /OR 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL/.
LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS E MN AND POSSIBLY THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO BY 12Z THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM E
MN TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT. YES THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
DRIER FOR THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING FROM THE S
PLAINS THROUGH IA CONSOLIDATES ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIP EXITS OVER
THE FAR W...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN. 850MB TEMPS
ONLY GET DOWN TO -1 TO NEAR -3C BY 12Z FRIDAY ON N-NNW WINDS. THE
COLDEST AIR OF -4 TO -5C SLOWLY EXPANDS ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SFC LOW EXITS
INTO S QUEBEC AND THE BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH IS ABOVE 800MB...AND
ABOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE COOL W-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C SATURDAY
CHANGING TO MORE OF A WAA FLOW SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
SOME LO CLDS AND FOG THAT FORMED AT SAW WITH AN UPSLOPE S WIND AND
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT FOLLOWED EARLY MRNG CLRG WL DISSIPATE
THIS MRNG WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL
OF MID CLD MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF ANY ISOLD -SHRA IMPACT THE SITES...DRY LLVL AIR
WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD
LINGERS OVER THE AREA TNGT...MORE RADIATION FOG WL BE POSSIBLE TNGT
WITH LGT LLVL WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE W
STATES...AND A RESULTANT RIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SWING OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LINES UP FROM ALBERTA
THROUGH NV AND S CA. LOOKING NEAR THE SFC WE WILL HAVE A BROAD
TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
/ONLY CLOUDS AND MAINLY N CLOSER TO DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE 500MB
RIDGE/. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 900MB WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THOUGH...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF INCREASED DEW POINTS JUMPING INTO
THE 50S.
SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E. THIS WILL BE AS NEARING SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ACROSS MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. EVEN ON WEDNESDAY...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD STAY W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR N AND
STRENGTHENING S FLOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO JUMP TO 11-15C AND SFC
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S /OR 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL/.
LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS E MN AND POSSIBLY THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO BY 12Z THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM E
MN TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT. YES THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
DRIER FOR THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING FROM THE S
PLAINS THROUGH IA CONSOLIDATES ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIP EXITS OVER
THE FAR W...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN. 850MB TEMPS
ONLY GET DOWN TO -1 TO NEAR -3C BY 12Z FRIDAY ON N-NNW WINDS. THE
COLDEST AIR OF -4 TO -5C SLOWLY EXPANDS ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SFC LOW EXITS
INTO S QUEBEC AND THE BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH IS ABOVE 800MB...AND
ABOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE COOL W-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C SATURDAY
CHANGING TO MORE OF A WAA FLOW SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY
AIR AT LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY MID-LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
720 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL
AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION
OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME
EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS
AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD
COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...
DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT
MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS
NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT
OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON
HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS
THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN
CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
SSE FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOW THIS WILL MANIFEST
ITSELF IS UP FOR INTERPRETATION AS THE NAM PAINTS A VERY
PESSIMISTIC IFR/LIFR PICTURE FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WHILE THE LAMP/SREF/HRRR GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC...NOT
EVEN BRINGING CONDITIONS TO ANYTHING WORSE THAN MVFR. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER OVER NE MN AND NW WI SLOWLY
OOZING SWD...WHICH IS ALREADY CREATING IFR CONDS JUST N OF THE WFO
MPX AREA. INHERITED FORECAST THINKING PUT MUCH WEIGHT WITH THE
PESSIMISTIC WAY TO GO BUT HAVE MODIFIED THIS THINKING BY GIVING
LESS DURATION TO THE IFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWED A PERIOD OF TEMPO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z TMRW MRNG. REGARDLESS...AM STILL
THINKING THE IFR/LIFR CONDS HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
MAINLY AFTER 06Z TNGT. CONDS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU LATE MRNG
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS TMRW AFTN WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A
STRONGER SURGE OF SLY WINDS.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE STILL FAIRLY HIGH IN EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP FOR KMSP OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG...BUT THE
STRONGER WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY FROM
DROPPING BEFORE MVFR LEVELS. STILL...CEILINGS BELOW 1700FT CAN BE
EXPECTED DURG THE MORNING PUSH...LASTING THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
548 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WE ADDED FOG THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH SOME DENSE FOG
OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT AND WE MAY ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH
SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. WE WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BY 01Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD
OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN
AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE
EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED
CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND
950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO
USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE
MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER
MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS
SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM
NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS
WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR
SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS
LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND
THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN
CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4
KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING
A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING
AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN
COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
STRATUS WAS EXPANDING QUICKLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND THE RAP HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE
STRATUS DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WE KEPT ALL
AREAS AT LEAST BROKEN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70
INL 44 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70
BRD 51 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60
HYR 50 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70
ASX 46 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT
WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT
DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD
COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE
HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED
A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING
COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN
PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT
ALONG WITH PTYPE.
THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
0C THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS
WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS
AT INL. THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 54 47 59 / 0 0 10 20
INL 35 50 41 54 / 20 0 20 20
BRD 42 62 49 67 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 40 64 50 64 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 41 59 48 61 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART
EARLIER THINKING FROM PRIOR FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING SLOW
CLEARING IS WORKING OUT AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRESSURE
RISES AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO HELP MIX OUT THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE. ANY CLEARING TONIGHT STILL LOOKS TO
SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL THUS KEEP THE CURRENT MENTION OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONDITIONAL THREAT IF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK IS MORE PREVALENT.
AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE STILL NOT
DEFINITIVE SIGNS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT COMPLETE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN. IN ANY
CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
UPDATE FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...HAVE EDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP GIVEN
THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING H925 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND ~21 DEG C WHICH
SHOULD EASILY CORRELATE WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SUCH VALUES WOULD APPROACH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. /EC/
LONG TERM...A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
CWA. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND ACROSS
OUR CWA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOWER 60 DEW POINTS WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY EVENING. PWATS
WILL INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF AREAWIDE BY NOON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE ABOVE TWO INCHES OVER OUR WEST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FRIDAY. THE WEAK
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SECOND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HELP SEND A >1030MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS DETERIORIATING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CATEGORIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL...AND AREAS
THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT FOR A SHORT TIME COULD QUICKLY SEE IFR/LIFR
VSBYS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MIXING OUT OF
STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE A SLOW/GRADUAL PROCESS AS WE GO THROUGH
MID/LATE TUES MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS COULD BECOME PREVALENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 59 76 58 80 / 7 2 5 3
MERIDIAN 60 75 55 79 / 9 7 6 7
VICKSBURG 58 76 56 81 / 6 5 4 4
HATTIESBURG 60 77 58 82 / 6 3 7 5
NATCHEZ 57 75 61 81 / 5 4 5 3
GREENVILLE 57 77 58 80 / 4 2 4 4
GREENWOOD 57 77 58 80 / 7 2 4 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
713 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 708 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Dense fog is already starting to form in parts of south central
and southwest Illinois this evening. Expect this fog will spread
westward this evening and overnight at least to the Mississippi
river and into eastern Missouri. Will go ahead and issue a dense
fog advisory for these areas. Stronger gradient winds in the
boundary layer overnight across central and northeast Missouri may
keep the dense fog out, so will leave them out of the advisory foe
the moment and watch what happens. Advisory will be out shortly
and will run from 900 PM to 900 AM Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for
a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus
clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the
area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be
dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile.
It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where
the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest
values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest
surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10
degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the
low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively
high surface dew points for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once
again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location
of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job
with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud
deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area,
into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier
fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck.
This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like
it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR
guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low
level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified
than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there
should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may
not be quite a persistent as today.
Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon
cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in
the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly
signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud
trends become more clear.
The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern
remains with the storm system approaching the region on
Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly
good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly
out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday
evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and
associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring
some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday,
but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday
night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front,
and deep moisture all interact over the region.
Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection
Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red
River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this
activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due
to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of
convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges
across the area during the late evening and overnight hours.
Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season
severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern
attm.
Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a
very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or
early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a
threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early
Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain
going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm.
Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the
Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool
Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in
the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing
another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The
return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with
W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to
migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into
the area for the start of the new work week.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Main concern...like the past couple of nights...will be on low
stratus and fog. Band of IFR stratus with predominantly MVFR
visibilities has advected WNW back into Lambert Field and should
be at KSUS very shortly. Expectation tonight is for low stratus to
expand overnight with ceilings and visbys slowly declining. KCOU
and KUIN should observe stratus/fog moving in last tonight. For
tomorrow...expect similar trends as today...maybe an hour or two
faster though due to more mixing in the boundary layer.
Specifics for KSTL:
Low stratus and fog again the conerns for tonight/tomorrow. IFR
ceilings have already advected back into Lambert Field with visbys
also declining. Expect a slow decline to continue with respect to
both ceilings and visibilities tonight. For tomorrow...expect a
similar improvement trend as today but may be an hour or two
faster due to more mixing in the boundary layer. Fog/stratus may
also be a concern tomorrow night but due to a weaker signal and
lack of confidence just put in a SCT010 group in for now.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 55 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30
Quincy 53 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30
Columbia 53 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50
Jefferson City 53 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50
Salem 54 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30
Farmington 54 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Franklin MO-Iron
MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-
St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
546 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for
a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus
clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the
area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be
dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile.
It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where
the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest
values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest
surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10
degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the
low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively
high surface dew points for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once
again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location
of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job
with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud
deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area,
into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier
fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck.
This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like
it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR
guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low
level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified
than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there
should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may
not be quite a persistent as today.
Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon
cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in
the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly
signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud
trends become more clear.
The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern
remains with the storm system approaching the region on
Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly
good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly
out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday
evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and
associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring
some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday,
but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday
night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front,
and deep moisture all interact over the region.
Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection
Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red
River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this
activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due
to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of
convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges
across the area during the late evening and overnight hours.
Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season
severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern
attm.
Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a
very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or
early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a
threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early
Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain
going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm.
Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the
Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool
Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in
the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing
another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The
return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with
W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to
migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into
the area for the start of the new work week.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Main concern...like the past couple of nights...will be on low
stratus and fog. Band of IFR stratus with predominantly MVFR
visibilities has advected WNW back into Lambert Field and should
be at KSUS very shortly. Expectation tonight is for low stratus to
expand overnight with ceilings and visbys slowly declining. KCOU
and KUIN should observe stratus/fog moving in last tonight. For
tomorrow...expect similar trends as today...maybe an hour or two
faster though due to more mixing in the boundary layer.
Specifics for KSTL:
Low stratus and fog again the conerns for tonight/tomorrow. IFR
ceilings have already advected back into Lambert Field with visbys
also declining. Expect a slow decline to continue with respect to
both ceilings and visibilities tonight. For tomorrow...expect a
similar improvement trend as today but may be an hour or two
faster due to more mixing in the boundary layer. Fog/stratus may
also be a concern tomorrow night but due to a weaker signal and
lack of confidence just put in a SCT010 group in for now.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 54 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30
Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30
Columbia 53 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50
Jefferson City 53 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50
Salem 55 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30
Farmington 54 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1127 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog continues to develop and become widespread across
southeast MO, northwest KY, and southern IL. All indications are
that it will spread northward and encompass the southeast quarter
to third of the LSX CWA by 12z Monday. Have coordinated with
surroundings offices to issue a dense fog advisory through 15z.
Glass
Issued at 922 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog has developed within the last hour or so across far
southeast MO and extreme northwest KY. The NARRE-TL, SREF, and last
5 runs of the HRRR all are in good agreement that light southeast
flow on the periphery of the eastern U.S. anticyclone will allow
for this fog to both spread and develop into southeast MO and southwest
IL overnight. I have updated the forecast to mention areas of dense
fog overnight with patchy dense fog on the northern periphery,
lasting through 900 am or so. An advisory may ultimately be needed
once we see how this materializes and how far north.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
An elongated area of high pressure centered over Kentucky and West
Virginia and stretching back through the Mississippi Valley into
northeast Texas will continue to drift eastward tonight. The ridge
axis will remain over the eastern Ozarks which will bring very light
wind to the area along and south of I-70. Think there will be
enough radiational cooling with left over moisture from yesterday`s
rain that we`ll see fog in sheltered areas and river
valleys...primarily along and south of I-70. Fog may become more
widespread...tho am not certain of how likely this is due to some
decent drying conditions today with warm temperatures and lower
dewpoints. At any rate, it should be a fairly cool night under the
influence of the high pressure. Guidance temps in the 40s looked
reasonable.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Still appears tranquil and unseasonably mild conditions are on tap
for the first half of the new work week. Primary question is if
and/or how much low cloudiness the increasing low level return flow
will push back into the area, and the impact of this potential
cloudiness on temps. Yesterday`s guidance was not at all bullish
on clouds, while today`s model output seems to be offering more
clues that there could be some lower clouds sneaking back north. At
this point I`ve just hinted at a few more clouds in some locations,
and maintained going forecast trends of daytime highs in the 70s
since there is no major change to the expected cloud cover at this
point.
Regardless of the amount of low cloudiness, the lack of significant
lower tropospheric moisture and upper dynamics certainly points to
tranquil and dry early November weather through Wednesday.
Medium range solutions are still forecasting deep upper trof to be
carved out over the western U.S. during the early part of the week,
with this system then kicking east and working its way into the
central CONUS in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. 12z guidance
suggests that there could be some elevated convection developing
across the area as early as Thursday as moisture advection and
isentropic ascent occurs with the intensifying southerly flow over
the Plains and Mississippi Valley. However, model consensus points
to a fairly potent lead shortwave pushing into the area on
Thursday night, and highest PoPs should be tied to this feature as
the UVV of the shortwave and the associated cold front combines
with the increasingly moist AMS. If some of the quicker solutions
verify the precipitation could end early on Friday, but with so
much of the upper trof lagging to the west have maintained a
mention of rain throughout the day, with dry weather returning
for next weekend.
Temperatures during the extended will also take a big dip from
their very mild levels of early in the week, with highs dropping
back into the 50s by next Saturday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Surface ridge extends from Ohio Valley westward through southern
Illinois and southern Missouri. So winds remain light with clear
skies. Still feel that KCOU and KUIN were able to dry out the low
levels enough today to preclude any fog formation there. As for
STL metro area, could at least see MVFR vsbys towards daybreak, so
kept mention between 10z-14z Monday. Could possibly have a decent
inversion setup Monday evening with stratus developing, so added
scattered stratus mention to metro area tafs after 04z Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge extends from Ohio Valley westward through southern
Illinois and southern Missouri. So winds remain light with clear
skies through forecast period. STL metro area could at least see
MVFR vsbys towards daybreak, so kept mention between 10z-14z
Monday. A decent inversion setup Monday evening with stratus
developing, so added scattered stratus mention to metro area tafs
after 04z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-
Fayette IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog continues to develop and become widespread across
southeast MO, northwest KY, and southern IL. All indications are
that it will spread northward and encompass the southeast quarter
to third of the LSX CWA by 12z Monday. Have coordinated with
surroundings offices to issue a dense fog advisory through 15z.
Glass
Issued at 922 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog has developed within the last hour or so across far
southeast MO and extreme northwest KY. The NARRE-TL, SREF, and last
5 runs of the HRRR all are in good agreement that light southeast
flow on the periphery of the eastern U.S. anticyclone will allow
for this fog to both spread and develop into southeast MO and southwest
IL overnight. I have updated the forecast to mention areas of dense
fog overnight with patchy dense fog on the northern periphery,
lasting through 900 am or so. An advisory may ultimately be needed
once we see how this materializes and how far north.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
An elongated area of high pressure centered over Kentucky and West
Virginia and stretching back through the Mississippi Valley into
northeast Texas will continue to drift eastward tonight. The ridge
axis will remain over the eastern Ozarks which will bring very light
wind to the area along and south of I-70. Think there will be
enough radiational cooling with left over moisture from yesterday`s
rain that we`ll see fog in sheltered areas and river
valleys...primarily along and south of I-70. Fog may become more
widespread...tho am not certain of how likely this is due to some
decent drying conditions today with warm temperatures and lower
dewpoints. At any rate, it should be a fairly cool night under the
influence of the high pressure. Guidance temps in the 40s looked
reasonable.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Still appears tranquil and unseasonably mild conditions are on tap
for the first half of the new work week. Primary question is if
and/or how much low cloudiness the increasing low level return flow
will push back into the area, and the impact of this potential
cloudiness on temps. Yesterday`s guidance was not at all bullish
on clouds, while today`s model output seems to be offering more
clues that there could be some lower clouds sneaking back north. At
this point I`ve just hinted at a few more clouds in some locations,
and maintained going forecast trends of daytime highs in the 70s
since there is no major change to the expected cloud cover at this
point.
Regardless of the amount of low cloudiness, the lack of significant
lower tropospheric moisture and upper dynamics certainly points to
tranquil and dry early November weather through Wednesday.
Medium range solutions are still forecasting deep upper trof to be
carved out over the western U.S. during the early part of the week,
with this system then kicking east and working its way into the
central CONUS in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. 12z guidance
suggests that there could be some elevated convection developing
across the area as early as Thursday as moisture advection and
isentropic ascent occurs with the intensifying southerly flow over
the Plains and Mississippi Valley. However, model consensus points
to a fairly potent lead shortwave pushing into the area on
Thursday night, and highest PoPs should be tied to this feature as
the UVV of the shortwave and the associated cold front combines
with the increasingly moist AMS. If some of the quicker solutions
verify the precipitation could end early on Friday, but with so
much of the upper trof lagging to the west have maintained a
mention of rain throughout the day, with dry weather returning
for next weekend.
Temperatures during the extended will also take a big dip from
their very mild levels of early in the week, with highs dropping
back into the 50s by next Saturday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
With surface ridge overhead will have clear skies and light and
variable winds through the forecast period. Atmosphere mixed out
pretty good for KCOU and KUIN, but could still see some fog
development over STL metro area late tonight. So kept MVFR vsby
mention in these tafs through daybreak.
Specifics for KSTL:
With surface ridge overhead will have clear skies and light and
variable winds through the forecast period. Could still see some
fog development over STL metro area late tonight. So kept MVFR
vsby mention in these tafs through daybreak on Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-
Fayette IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
827 AM MST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE FIRST FOCUSED ON SKY
COVERAGE. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING BETWEEN HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. ACCORDING TO THE HRRR THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER A FEW MILES AND
THEN BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT. IN ADDITION TO THIS PUT SOME SLIGHT
VARIATION ONTO THE WIND FIELDS WITH THE LATEST MESOSCALE WIND
DATA. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ISOLATED TS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THE COLD FRONT
TODAY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY...DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW WITH GENERATE
BRISK WEST WINDS OF 15 KT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE BASE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS TROUGH PICKED UP
PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BRINGS IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN CONTRAST TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. A VERY DISTINCT STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES. THE EJECTED
MOISTURE FLOWING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL DRIFT INTO MAINLY THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF THERE
WILL BE ANY FROZEN MIX WITH THE MAINLY RAIN.
TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TENDS TO CONFINE ITSELF TO
CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH DRY SLOTTING DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
OF NEMONT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL TEND TO KEEP THE 850MB 0C
ISOTHERM TO THE NORTH...LIMITING FROZEN PRECIPITATION. QPF RAIN
AMOUNTS REMAIN FAIRLY WET.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...QPF BEGINS TO FOCUS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND CANADA. THERE ARE MODEL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
THAT WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE GFS & EC ARE WARMER
THAN THE NAM. THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. HOWEVER SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LESS INTENSE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO
FORGO HEADLINES FOR NOW BASED ON LIMITED HAZARDS. SCT
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM. PETROLEUM
COUNTY MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. LACK OF MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIMIT THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRING A DRY FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER MIXING ON SUNDAY.
NEXT MONDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY. FEW TO SCT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME. CIGS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TONIGHT WITH RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS AT KSDY AND KGDV BY
06Z TONIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND THEN
EAST BY THIS EVENING. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
927 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AREA AS REDUCED VISIBILITY REPORTS ARE STARTING TO
COME IN THROUGHOUT MANY PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
LINE WITH GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...AREA WEBCAMS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN
DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10
KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS
HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL
WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT
YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WIDESREAD IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER A FEW LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
629 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
LINE WITH GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...AREA WEBCAMS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN
DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10
KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS
HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL
WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT
YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WIDESREAD IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER A FEW LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
106 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING NICELY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS FOR
TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS LINGER THE SHOWERS TOWARDS DICKEY AND
LAMOURE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW THEM ENDING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE IS SHOWN BY
THE HRRR TO LINGER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH IN THE NORTH
BASED ON THAT EXPECTATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING...SO UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON AREAS. EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THEY COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THIS...WILL LINGER POPS A BIT LONGER IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
GIVEN SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS OF 12 UTC IN THE JAMESTOWN AND
CARRINGTON AREAS...ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 14 UTC
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV AND LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCALED BACK ON POPS ACROSS MY NORTH
WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY VOID OF ECHOS WITH MOST ACTIVITY
SOUTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SKY TRENDING CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF MY
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WEST TO
EAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A BAD FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND WINDS 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
LEAD S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND BRING A GOOD
SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP TYPE REMAINING LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES HAVE
SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN TRACK...WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES FOR
THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THUS...THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS DECREASING...WITH NOW ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE
WINTER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GREATLY DECREASED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF
WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROPAGATE INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY. DID NOT BRING MVFR INTO KISN
OR KMOT UNTIL THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO KDIK LATER TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT KBIS AND KJMS TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE DENSE FOG LIFTED ON SCHEDULE BUT AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN THIS AREA
AREA RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO WILL LOWER HIGHS A
GOOD 5 DEGREES THERE. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT MORE SUN. ALSO SEEING WEST WINDS JUST
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHICH ARE PUSHING TEMPS EVEN
WARMER. ALREADY 54F IN KDVL...59F IN VALLEY CITY AND 57F AT
GWINNER. EVEN HAVE 64F AT KFFM. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WELL...WITH STRONG NW TO SE TEMP DIFFERENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE PUSHED OUT AND ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL SHIFT TO E-NE AND INCREASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1131 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS LINGER THE SHOWERS TOWARDS DICKEY AND
LAMOURE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW THEM ENDING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE IS SHOWN BY
THE HRRR TO LINGER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH IN THE NORTH
BASED ON THAT EXPECTATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING...SO UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON AREAS. EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THEY COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THIS...WILL LINGER POPS A BIT LONGER IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
GIVEN SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS OF 12 UTC IN THE JAMESTOWN AND
CARRINGTON AREAS...ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 14 UTC
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV AND LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCALED BACK ON POPS ACROSS MY NORTH
WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY VOID OF ECHOS WITH MOST ACTIVITY
SOUTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SKY TRENDING CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF MY
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WEST TO
EAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A BAD FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND WINDS 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
LEAD S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND BRING A GOOD
SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP TYPE REMAINING LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES HAVE
SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN TRACK...WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES FOR
THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THUS...THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS DECREASING...WITH NOW ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE
WINTER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GREATLY DECREASED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF
WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROPAGATE INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY. DID NOT BRING MVFR INTO KISN
OR KMOT UNTIL THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO KDIK LATER TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT KBIS AND KJMS TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
913 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
DENSE FOG APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING. RAMSEY COUNTY NO LONGER HAS ANY FOG SO CANCELLED THAT
COUNTY FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHER STATIONS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA HAVE CLIMBED UP TO A HALF MILE...BUT WILL WAIT A WHILE LONGER
TO SEE IF MORE STATIONS DO THE SAME BEFORE CANCELLING THE REST OF
THE ADVISORY. SEEING SOME SUN NOW AROUND KDVL AND FROM GWINNER TO
FARGO TO BEMIDJI. OTHER AREAS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SEE MORE SUN
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS LIFR CIG/VSBY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AM.
DVL WAS IFR HOWEVER CIGS LIFTING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN.
GFK/TVF AND BJI ON SOUTHERN EDGE. SO FAR ONLY BJI HAS GONE IFR AND
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOWER STUFF OUT OF GFK. WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ007-008-
016-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ004>008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS UPDATE PERIOD WAS DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES. VSBY IMPROVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES AS THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. FARTHER EAST VSBY LOW ENOUGH AND
SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA WITH NARROW
BAND OF RADAR RETURNS ALTHOUGH DOUBT ANY OF THE RETURNS WILL
RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS LIFR CIG/VSBY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AM.
DVL WAS IFR HOWEVER CIGS LIFTING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN.
GFK/TVF AND BJI ON SOUTHERN EDGE. SO FAR ONLY BJI HAS GONE IFR AND
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOWER STUFF OUT OF GFK. WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ007-008-
015-016-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ004>008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING WESTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT VIRGA MAY MOVE
INTO THE DVL REGION DURING MID MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP
MID TO HI CIGS AND NO MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR EVENING UPDATE. PRECIP MOVING ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE SD STATE LINE APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF CWA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR ARRIVAL IN THE 08Z TO 10Z
TIMEFRAME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND THE NORTH REMAINING CLEAR...LOWER CIGS OVER MANITOBA IS
STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER...AS EXPECTED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW.
00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT...AND GENERATING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE EXTENDED WESTWARD THE INHERITED LOW
POPS TO INCLUDE ZONES SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. ANY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF IT DOES REACH THE SFC. RUC GUIDANCE SEEMS
TOO BULLISH FOR QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN EXPETED MID LEVEL CIGS. WILL
MONITOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL HOWEVER WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT VS CALM...AND BE ENOUGH FOR SIG FOG DEVELOPMENT.
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING FOGS INTO GRIDS ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT BUT OF
COURSE THERE WILL ALSO BE TEMP AND CLOUD QUESTIONS TOO. AS FOR NOW
ARE SEEING THE DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST MN.
THE W-SW WIND SWITCH SHOULD STILL BRING A LATE RUN AT HIGH TEMPS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD
LIGHTEN UP BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE WESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD
MAINLY KEEP SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE LOW CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
CURRENTLY THINK THESE MAY APPROACH AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THAT. A JET STREAK MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. MONDAY LOOKS
DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY MILD. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST FA MON NIGHT BUT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO TUE/WED BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING IT
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THEREFORE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
SYSTEM WILL FELT OVER THE NORTHWEST FA AND POSSIBLY THE FAR
NORTHERN VALLEY. EVEN THEN LOOKING AT THE STEADIER RAIN STAYING
FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING UP THRU THE FA IT
WILL SET UP A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHS VARIATIONS TUE/WED OF 20 DEGREES OR MORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH
BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND UNDERNEATH A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE
OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO A PART OF THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...THEN 500 MB FLOW FLATTENS THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY AFFECT LAKE OF THE WOODS SATURDAY SO KEPT LOW POPS GIVEN
BY MODEL BLEND FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING WESTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT VIRGA MAY MOVE
INTO THE DVL REGION DURING MID MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP
MID TO HI CIGS AND NO MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1138 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Fog will be the big issue with IFR to LIFR conditions possible at
all area TAF sites until mid-morning Monday. Conditions improve Monday
afternoon. However, fog could affect the area again Monday night into
Tuesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued /
DISCUSSION...
Dense fog appears imminent where skies are clear and even at KMLC
where low clouds have remained, visibilities are dropping quickly.
Have issued a dense fog advisory for all but parts of far
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas until 10 am Monday.
Low clouds from far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas
may prevent widespread dense fog from forming there, but this
will need to be monitored as the night goes on. Made a few minor
adjustments to overnight lows tonight as well.
Both the HRRR and the new 00Z NAM suggest fog will persist well
into Monday morning, and perhaps until closer to midday from
about the Interstate 44 corridor to the northwest. This may impact
high temperatures Monday, but still expect a strong rally in the
afternoon when the sun comes out so will leave high temperatures
Monday as is for now.
Update on the way.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for OKZ054>074.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
935 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES AT 1130Z. HRRR SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND
14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. SATL
TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE INDICATE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVR PA...SUPPORTING
LIGHT WINDS AND A ZERO PCT CHC OF RAIN. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
FLOOD THE AREA WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIR MASS TODAY. ENS MEAN
925TEMPS BTWN 10C-12C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL FLOW SHOULD VEER FROM SW TO WNW TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...THUS SHIFTING THE STREAM OF CIRRUS EAST OF
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND BENEATH SFC HIGH PRES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG A
POSSIBILITY TOWARD DAWN. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST ECMOS SUPPORT
MIN TEMPS FROM THE U30S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L40S ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL EXPECTED
TUES BENEATH BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE. MDL 925 TEMPS RISING TO
NEAR 15C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S. RECORD
HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD IN THE 75-80F RANGE APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS +1-2SD
500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
ARND 70F.
STILL WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
ASSOC WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE MID ATL COAST AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z EC/GFS.
GEFS/ECENS BOTH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG
AROUND KLNS AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRONT OF THE ALLEGHENIES NEAR
KJST WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY 15Z. CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD /EMANATING
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS/ WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
733 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES AT 1130Z. HRRR SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND
14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. SATL
TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE INDICATE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVR PA...SUPPORTING
LIGHT WINDS AND A ZERO PCT CHC OF RAIN. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
FLOOD THE AREA WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIR MASS TODAY. ENS MEAN
925TEMPS BTWN 10C-12C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL FLOW SHOULD VEER FROM SW TO WNW TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...THUS SHIFTING THE STREAM OF CIRRUS EAST OF
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND BENEATH SFC HIGH PRES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG A
POSSIBILITY TOWARD DAWN. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST ECMOS SUPPORT
MIN TEMPS FROM THE U30S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L40S ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL EXPECTED
TUES BENEATH BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE. MDL 925 TEMPS RISING TO
NEAR 15C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S. RECORD
HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD IN THE 75-80F RANGE APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS +1-2SD
500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
ARND 70F.
STILL WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
ASSOC WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE MID ATL COAST AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z EC/GFS.
GEFS/ECENS BOTH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG
AROUND KLNS AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRONT OF THE ALLEGHENIES NEAR
KJST WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD /EMANATING
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS/ WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
650 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES AT 1130Z. HRRR SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND
14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. SATL
TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE INDICATE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVR PA...SUPPORTING
LIGHT WINDS AND A ZERO PCT CHC OF RAIN. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
FLOOD THE AREA WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIR MASS TODAY. ENS MEAN
925TEMPS BTWN 10C-12C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL FLOW SHOULD VEER FROM SW TO WNW TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...THUS SHIFTING THE STREAM OF CIRRUS EAST OF
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND BENEATH SFC HIGH PRES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG A
POSSIBILITY TOWARD DAWN. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST ECMOS SUPPORT
MIN TEMPS FROM THE U30S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L40S ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL EXPECTED
TUES BENEATH BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE. MDL 925 TEMPS RISING TO
NEAR 15C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S. RECORD
HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD IN THE 75-80F RANGE APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS +1-2SD
500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
ARND 70F.
STILL WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
ASSOC WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE MID ATL COAST AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z EC/GFS.
GEFS/ECENS BOTH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD /EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS/ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND LIFR/MVFR
CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z MONDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS CONDS TRANSITION
TO VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
UPDATE...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR TODAY/S SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SKIES TO ALSO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW DEPARTS. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK BUT ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL... CLEARING SKIES... AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE
SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY.
UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD TRENDS
HOLDING ONTO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO KEEP UP WITH THOSE TRENDS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TIMING OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD
FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN OVERALL WET PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH SLOWER BUT
ENOUGH FOR SOME DIFFERENCES. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS NEXT SUNDAY.
IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TALK IMPACTS BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...HOPEFULLY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS YET AGAIN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
DETERMINE THESE DETAILS AND IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST.
39
MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND DID ADJUST THEM SOME WITH THE UPDATE.
WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH THIS TREND TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPING TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST A BIT UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER
OFFSHORE WINDS/DECREASED SEAS. SELY WINDS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE MON...THE PERSISTING THRU THE REST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 76 58 78 61 / 20 10 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 59 78 62 / 30 10 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 67 74 69 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
848 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
FOCUS REMAINS ON FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW STRATUS OVER IL...ASSOCIATED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR...DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO SRN WISCONSIN PER RAP AND
SPC FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS BRINGING
RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO PLAY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NARROWING
...WITH MONROE AND JANESVILLE BELOW 6 MILES AT 02Z AND OTHER SITES
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY 2 DEGREES.
THE 21Z SREF FORECASTS ARE NOW SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITIES...70
TO 80 PCT..OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
FOND DU LAC...SLINGER...HARTLAND TO ELKHORN LINE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. 01Z HRRR EVEN LOWER WITH VSBYS ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPS HOLDING UP IN EASTERN SITES NEAR THE LAKE...KEEPING DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH FOR EVEN THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
GUIDANCE FROM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP BY 03Z...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE WESTERN CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOWEST VSBYS. WILL SEE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS...BUT RIGHT
NOW DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG
THAT WILL BE IN PLAY FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...UPDATED
LATEST SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS
EARLIER RUN. HIGHER DEW POINT AIR STRUGGLES TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI
ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. SREF CLOUD
PROBABILITY OF CIG LESS THAN 3K FT ALSO KEEPING BETTER CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BRING MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG AROUND/JUST AFTER
09Z...BUT KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS WITH SCT IFR. WILL MONITOR BAND
OF IFR STRATUS IN CENTRAL IL THAT APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING TO THE
NW BUT IS NOT EXPANDING AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN POINT OF FOCUS TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL
TRANSLATE NORTH INTO S WI. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE PROGGING DEWPTS
INTO THE LOWER 50S BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
12Z WED.
BROKEN SKY COVER IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SCATTERED
SKIES DURING THE DAY WED...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 925MB TEMPS ARE STILL VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 14 AND 17C. SO DROPPED HIGHS FOR WED.
INTO THE MID 60S DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS S WI AS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO WEST...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST MN. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT ONE THAT IS
LIKELY TO BE MOIST ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN EVER EXPANDING AND
UNPREDICTABLE LOWER STRATUS DECK. TIMING OF THE FIRST CHANCES OF
RAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON AFTER
MID DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE DETAILS HAVEN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF SPINNING
OUT OF SRN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE IT/S EAST THEN NORTHEAST PROGRESS THIS WEEK...KICKING
OUT A VERY INTENSE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY. THAT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING PRECIP FIELD OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PW/S WILL BE ABOUT 1-1.3 INCHES AND THE
DEEP LAYER FORCING/UVV REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY CENTERED
AROUND 04-08Z FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT...SO THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM HAS
PICKED UP AND THE RAIN MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR THE EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING AND VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE 50S...ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER DECENT FALL
WEEKEND AROUND HERE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO COME IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT IN THIS OPEN WAVE. THE GFS IS
FASTER...BRINGING CHANCES IN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF DELAYS THOSE CHANCES UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THEY BOTH SPIN UP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ISN/T MUCH AGREEMENT IN
TIMING/SHAPE/INTENSITY/TRACK...SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TONIGHT UNTIL A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS COULD REACH INTO THE IFR
CRITERIA AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS. SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO S WI. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR AND UPPER
IFR CATEGORIES FOR SOME TAF SITES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
516 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS
RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT
BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED.
SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT
IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE
THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND
COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS
FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB
PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY
COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS
DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD
BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A
VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS
SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE
STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH
DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY
DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX
WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW
FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FG/ST TNGT. BL
WINDS WL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW NGTS...PROBABLY FAVORING
ST MORE THAN FG. PREV TAF PKG SEEMED LIKE A VERY GOOD STARTING
POINT...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS IN THE CIG/VSBY FCST FOR
THE 00Z TAFS. THE MAIN CHGS WL BE TO ADD LLWS AS WINDS ALOFT
LIKELY TO INCR ATOP DEVELOPING INVERSION THIS EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL BE TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED
BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY/FRIDAY. 02.12Z GLOBAL MODEL
SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED APPROACH
FOR THIS FORECAST.
SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO IS SOUTH TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO LOWER 70S WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WIND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S REGION-WIDE. ALTHOUGH RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
FORECAST...IT MAY BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT LA CROSSE. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH GIVEN ROUGHLY 20
KTS TO MIX IN THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
ALTHOUGH WIND/THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16
CELSIUS...THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF SHOW A LOW STRATUS DECK EXPANDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IF CLOUDS MATERIALIZE...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THIS POTENTIAL SPREAD IS EVIDENT IN THE
02.09Z SREF PLUMES WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
70S. MODELS NORMALLY DO NOT HANDLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SEE IF CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED. FOR NOW...INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE
PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL ONSET APPEARS A BIT SLOWER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...NOW ENTERING SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT P-TYPE
AS RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT MUCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 100 TO 300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
THEIR FALL ON THURSDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL FEEL A BIT RAW
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH NEAR NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS DO LOOK BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT SO
LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KRST LATE IN
THE MORNING AND AT KLSE RIGHT AROUND 18Z TUESDAY OR SHORTLY AFTER.
THE 02.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AT BOTH
TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT WIND
LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP SO NOT SURE IF THIS WILL MANIFEST AS
FOG...A LOW STATUS LAYER OR NOTHING. THE 02.15Z RAP DOES NOT SHOW
THIS SATURATED LAYER FORMING AND NEITHER DOES THE 02.06Z GFS. FOR
NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
AT THE MOMENT...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALL JUST SHY OF
CURRENT RECORDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE COULD APPROACH CURRENT RECORDS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BELOW IS A LOOK AT RECORDS AS THEY CURRENTLY STAND:
LOCATION | 11/3 RECORD | 11/4 RECORD
---------------------------------------------
LA CROSSE | 75 (2008) | 75 (2008)
ROCHESTER | 75 (2008) | 74 (2008)
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......LAWRENCE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK
FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69
RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS
SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER
SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE
WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR
SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE
UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND
GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND
RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP
OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS...
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS
SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO
DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW
STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER
DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO
REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
(ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT
FEELS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A
SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN WI WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK FRONT. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT
TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF LOWER VSBYS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WI. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH IMPACT AT AREA TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
IFR/MVFR IN THE TAFS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY 1/4-
1/2SM VSBYS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. ANY FOG
WILL BE LIFTING BY MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GOOD FLYING WEATHER.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
OK...WHO FORGOT TO LET THE WEATHER KNOW THE CALENDAR HAS FLIPPED AND
IT IS NOVEMBER NOW? JUST AN AWESOME WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING ACROSS
THE CONUS RIGHT NOW IF YOU`RE A FAN OF LATE FALL WARMTH...WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
HEADING TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO MIDWEEK. BEFORE THAT ALL
TAKES SHAPE...BROAD CONFLUENT/ZONAL FLOW RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 AT THE MOMENT...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES
WITHIN SAID FLOW...ALSO HELPING TO AT TIMES ENHANCED LOCALIZED AXES
OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES (SEE WHAT
HAPPENED LAST EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS).
THAT GENERAL SETUP WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF
DEEPER LAYER FGEN FORCING PROGGED TO LAY OUT JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE
AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT FORCING
SHOULD GO INTO CONTINUED BOUTS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS...AND PER
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS...FEEL COMPELLED TO RAISE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SAID CLOUDS AND
LIMITED MIXING NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY AID IN
HOLDING DOWN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY THOSE
SPOTS SOUTH OF I-90) WILL FIND THEMSELVES BREAKING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH TEMPS VERY LIKELY TO SOAR THROUGH THE 70-75 DEGREE
MARK...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS AS WARM AS 17-18C!
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUNTING THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA AND PUSHING ALL OF US SQUARELY IN THE WARM
(AND CLOUD FREE) SECTOR. AS SUCH...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE TUESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY ON AN AREA-WIDE BASIS WITH TEMPS AGAIN WARMING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S JUST ABOUT ALL SPOTS. DOUBTFUL
WE WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS GIVEN WET SOILS...BUT IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR VALUES). OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY STILL
HAS A LOT OF POTENTIAL TO BE JUST AS WARM...BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOWER STRATUS BLOSSOMING NORTHWARD WITHIN AN AXIS OF
STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN BACK TOWARD THE AREA...AND REALLY OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN GENERAL. WITH THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF THIS IDEA
SIGNIFICANTLY THE PAST 12 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT IF CLOUDS DON`T
MATERIALIZE...WE HAVE A SHOT AT SHOOTING WELL INTO THE LOWER 70S
ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY AREAS. ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE!
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE END IS NEAR! WELL FOR WARM WEATHER THAT IS. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...ALL GOOD THINGS MUST END SOMETIME...AND THE END IS IN
SIGHT HEADING INTO LATE WEEK AS THAT WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST A FASTER PROGRESSION WITH A LEAD
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK TO SAID UPPER ENERGY. THAT SETUP...SHOULD IT OCCUR...SUGGESTS
WE MAY GET IN ON ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARD LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE QUITE THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM...MUCH
COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING IS
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SETUP OF MUCH COOLER AIR
SPILLING IN ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER...WITH
PERHAPS A ROUND OR TWO OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF
TIME TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THAT OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE ABOUT JUST HOW DEEP THAT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT SO
LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KRST LATE IN
THE MORNING AND AT KLSE RIGHT AROUND 18Z TUESDAY OR SHORTLY AFTER.
THE 02.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AT BOTH
TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT WIND
LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP SO NOT SURE IF THIS WILL MANIFEST AS
FOG...A LOW STATUS LAYER OR NOTHING. THE 02.15Z RAP DOES NOT SHOW
THIS SATURATED LAYER FORMING AND NEITHER DOES THE 02.06Z GFS. FOR
NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
AT THE MOMENT...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALL JUST SHY OF
CURRENT RECORDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE COULD APPROACH CURRENT RECORDS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BELOW IS A LOOK AT RECORDS AS THEY CURRENTLY STAND:
LOCATION | 11/2 RECORD | 11/3 RECORD | 11/4 RECORD
----------------------------------------------------------------
LA CROSSE | 75 (1938) | 75 (2008) | 75 (2008)
ROCHESTER | 74 (1953) | 75 (2008) | 74 (2008)
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1131 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON AREA RADARS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW REPORTS OF THESE LIGHT
RETURNS REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN MN.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI.
THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A BLANKET OF
MID-CLOUDS IS INCOMING HOWEVER...AND WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD
LATER TODAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT STEEP...BUT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LIGHT QPF
DEPICTED IN THE MESOMODELS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH. BEST TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BETWEEN 03-
09Z. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
PLENTY OF LOW VSBYS PROJECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY CHUGGING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE NORTH THOUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE
SUNSHINE WILL BRING UP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH AND
UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A MILD DRY PERIOD TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE EACH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COULD BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH CLOSE TO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT THIS IS NOVEMBER.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THE LATER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THE LATER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERT ON AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER TROUGH FRAGMENTS INTO SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE A 120 KT UPPER JET PARALLELS THE FRONT. LFQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL WORK WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE ARE TOWARD FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS A MORE WEST WITH
THE FRONT AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE SLIDING OVER THE
FRONT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY WITH SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES...OTHERWISE A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
GETTING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER HEIGHTS AGAIN
BUILD FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER FOR POSSIBLE RETURN TO
MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
FAIRLY QUIET WX EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA...RESULTING IN MIDDLE CLDS STREAMING ACRS
THE REGION. DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH CLD BASES...INCRG RETURNS ON RADAR
AND SFC OBS SUGGEST SPRINKLES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHC MAY NOT OCCUR ACRS THE N UNTIL EARLY
TOMORROW...SO CARRY IN THE RHI TAF AT THAT TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
902 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN NV THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS
TRUCKEE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN RESPONSE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN NV. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR
JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF PYRAMID LAKE. THESE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY
FOOTHILLS AS THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTH. THE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY 08Z (MIDNIGHT)
AND THEN CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. WHILE MAINLY WET ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST
VALLEY FLOORS, SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS.
HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS
SHOWING LIGHT SNOW AS FAR WEST AS KAAT, WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A SNOW
BAND MOVING ACROSS THE RENO-CARSON AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS WEDNESDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE EAST OF RENO. HOWEVER, A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF
INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER WEST AND WE WILL BE MONITORING
CLOSELY THIS EVENING AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADWAYS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. HOHMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
COOL CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS TWO QUICK MOVING STORMS PASS ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
ONE INTERESTING BIT OF INFO FOR TONIGHT...THE OVERNIGHT LOW AT THE
RENO AIRPORT IS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, IF IT
DOES NOT DO SO BEFORE MIDNIGHT IT WILL BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE
LATEST FREEZE IN A CALENDAR YEAR SET ON NOVEMBER 3RD 1992.
LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW, BUT WILL REDEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN NARROW
BANDS UP TO 20 MILES OR SO DOWNWIND SOUTH OF TAHOE, PYRAMID AND
WALKER.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TODAY, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD LOW DROPS INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON ROADS. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IS OVER PERSHING, CHURCHILL,
MINERAL AND LYON COUNTIES. BEHIND THE SYSTEM UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CARSON RANGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS DOUGLAS, LYON, WESTERN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY, MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SECOND TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY CREEP UP TO 5000-5500 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BRONG
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG TERM CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE: INCREASING POP TO
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, WINDS WERE RAISED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE INVERSIONS WILL KEEP MIXING RESTRICTED TO
UNDER ~8,500 FT ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AS THE VALLEY AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES/WARMS. THE INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO MEAN HIGHS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WILL BE SIMILAR (WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES) TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED
MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS, ALONG WITH INCREASED
WINDS OVER RIDGES AND IN VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50) BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
STILL IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
AND A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN ENSEMBLE RUNS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE A TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY. WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED POP TO 30-50% FOR THE REGION MONDAY AND/OR
MONDAY NIGHT. I HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONG FRONT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS, THE MONDAY SYSTEM LOOKS
MUCH COLDER THAN THE LAST ONE AND HAS NO MAJOR MOISTURE FEED.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS DYNAMIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO EASTERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE (DUE TO SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL OVER OCEAN) SO THE
SIERRA COULD SEE A DECENT HIGHER RATIO (COMPARED TO THE RECENT
STORM) SNOWFALL, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
ALSO, WITHOUT A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED, WESTERN NEVADA MAY SEE
MORE RAIN SHADOWING/WIND WITH PRECIPITATION WAITING FOR THE FRONTAL
FORCING TO SPILLOVER.
NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR VALLEYS
WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNYDER
AVIATION...
FAST-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 9 PM/05Z NEAR INTERSTATE 80, DROPPING SOUTH
TO BETWEEN LEE VINING AND KHTH BY 1-2AM (08Z-09Z). BRIEF IFR CIGS
AND IFR/LIFR VIS AND EXTENSIVE TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS, A DUSTING TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS KLOL
AND KNFL.
OF BIGGER CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL AND A LONGER PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS
WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF PYRAMID LAKE AND EVENTUALLY WALKER
LAKE. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF -SN/SN WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
BETWEEN PYRAMID LAKE AND STAGECOACH/KSPZ, AS WELL AS SOUTH OF WALKER
LAKE. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NARROW LAKE
EFFECT BANDS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW
CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACK SOUTHWARD.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP SOME.
SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog and very low stratus remain the primary concern
overnight. HRRR output continues to expanded coverage of dense fog
along and west of I-57. Dense fog potential appears lower along
the Indiana border, but CMI and DEC are already 1/4SM FG and
should remain VLIFR the rest of the night. Dense fog formation has
slowed down in it`s westward expansion, as the stratus deck
appears to preventing ideal radiational fog conditions. However,
there will be an advection fog component under southerly winds, so
dense fog should eventually form at every TAF location. The fog
will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as late as
17z.
Once the fog clears, the 00z/04 NAM is showing stratus could hold
on through the afternoon east of I-55. GFS gets rid of the stratus
eventually by evening at all TAF sites. Will keep some clearing at
PIA and SPI in the west, under the dry push from the SW across
western IL. Stratus re-development is indicated in the NAM
soundings, with a layer of residual moisture around 1.5-2.5K ft.
Little overall change in airmass through tomorrow evening should
set the stage for fog developing again by late evening.
Winds will generally remain south in the 5-11kt range over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
713 PM CST
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS
VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE
ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR
INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.
STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO
REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY
HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY
LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE
INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS
IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER
TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG
WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND
EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT
WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
254 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN
PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS
PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW
TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE
ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT
WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING
AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED
SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
60S OR EVEN COOLER.
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
RC/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
FOG IS ACTUALLY RETREATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WHILE IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. MDW APPEARS TO BE RIGHT NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT AND HAS RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT AND IMPROVED TO
VFR. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WOULD ANTICIPATE THE LOW CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD MDW ONCE AGAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z...
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF RFD EAST TO PWK AND SOUTH THROUGH
IKK PER 05Z OB/SATELLITE. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG WILL INCH EAST OVER
ORD/MDW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SLOW/MINOR IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER MODELS
TYPICALLY BRING CONDITIONS UP TOO FAST. ASSUMING WE DO MIX
OUT/LIFT TO VFR FOR A WHILE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER SO SEE LITTLE REASON WHY WE WOULDNT SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN OUT
OF 180-220 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AND TIMING AT
ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW.
* MEDIUM IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
249 AM CST
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SWINGING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT...THEN TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN FOG BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LAKE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog has already started forming from Champaign and Rantoul
to Decatur, east of the stratus cloud area that is drifting
westward. HRRR and RAP model output has been consistent in
indicating another night of widespread dense fog for a majority of
our forecast area /FA/. The short term models have generally
shown lower fog potential along the Indiana border. However, we
have decided to issue a dense fog advisory for our entire FA from
9 pm to 10 am. Some clearing of the fog will develop from south
to north after 9 am as southerly winds increase and low-mid clouds
begin to arrive from the south. Low temps tonight will likely
settle out only a few degrees below current readings, in the low
to mid 50s. Highs tomorrow may need to be trimmed a couple degrees
to account for the delayed morning heating under fog and low
clouds. Some areas may even see stratus linger well into the
afternoon, which would limit highs even further.
Weather and sky grid updates are already available. Updated temps,
dewpoints, winds will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under
the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over
Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and
persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up
east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around
where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models
depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night,
and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned
that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model
is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the
patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development
with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather
quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57
has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has
been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to
persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and
associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level
moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns
off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high
temperatures around 70 degrees.
Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a
strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This
system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the
California coast, which will eject toward the area starting
Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave
Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect
widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move
through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave
should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak
lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity
minimal.
The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with
near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high
pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western
U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have
temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week.
However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also
support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period
and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Dense fog and very low stratus remain the primary concern
overnight. HRRR output continues to expanded coverage of dense fog
along and west of I-57. Dense fog potential appears lower along
the Indiana border, but CMI and DEC are already 1/4SM FG and
should remain VLIFR the rest of the night. Dense fog formation has
slowed down in it`s westward expansion, as the stratus deck
appears to preventing ideal radiational fog conditions. However,
there will be an advection fog component under southerly winds, so
dense fog should eventually form at every TAF location. The fog
will likely linger until at least 15z/9am, and possibly as late as
17z.
Once the fog clears, the 00z/04 NAM is showing stratus could hold
on through the afternoon east of I-55. GFS gets rid of the stratus
eventually by evening at all TAF sites. Will keep some clearing at
PIA and SPI in the west, under the dry push from the SW across
western IL. Stratus re-development is indicated in the NAM
soundings, with a layer of residual moisture around 1.5-2.5K ft.
Little overall change in airmass through tomorrow evening should
set the stage for fog developing again by late evening.
Winds will generally remain south in the 5-11kt range over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1129 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
713 PM CST
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z/10AM CST FOR NORTHERN IL AS
VSBYS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR...IS CONSISTENTLY INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO AND AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AS DOWNTOWN AND ALONG THE LAKE
ARE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OTHER AREAS. FOR
INSTANCE...NORTHERLY ISLAND HAS A 10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WHILE ORD HAS A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. DRIER AIR IS ALSO
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH IS WHY INDIANA IS NOT IN THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.
STRATUS IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...AND RELIED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRRR TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...BUT THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING A BIT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO TEMPS YET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
229 PM CST
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE BATTLE BETWEEN STRATUS AND THE POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WE HAVE TRENDED FURTHER INTO THE CLOUDY REALM FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS.
THE LINGERING FRAGMENTS OF THIS MORNINGS STRATUS IS SEEN IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS CONTINUES TO
REPLENISH ITSELF IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SLUGGISHLY MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN. THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE LATEST TODAY
HAVE THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR MORE READILY
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION THIS EVENING. SO BEGIN INDICATING FOG BY
LATE EVENING FROM GIBSON CITY UP TO PONTIAC...PERU...AND UP THE
INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITY IS
IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MOST PROBABLE FOR THE EARLIEST FOG AND ALSO THE MOST DENSE BY LATER
TONIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE. INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT DENSE FOG
WILL EXPAND FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST INDIANA SEEING FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT. WE AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT TO GET A HANDLE ON COVERAGE AREA NEEDED AND
EXTENT. BUT AM ANTICIPATING THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THAT
WOULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IMPACTS WOULD BE ELEVATED
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
254 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL REMAIN WITH THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAX TEMPS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LIKELY
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG STILL IN
PLACE. BASED ON SKY/FOG TRENDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN THIS
PATTERN...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION UNFOLDING
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW. DO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE EROSION...BUT STILL KEEP AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ITS POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT THIS STRATUS COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LOWERED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW OBSERVING LOW
TO MID 60S BUT IF THESE CLOUDS STICK AROUND....THEN HIGH TEMPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE IN THE 50S SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CLOUDIER TREND GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL AS LOWERING TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ON HIGHS THAT DAY. DID BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AS GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
PUT MORE DETAIL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ATTENTION WILL BE
ON APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND LIFTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
THURSDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE BETTER FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAK BUT
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH A STRONG/FOCUSED LLJ IN PLACE THAT
WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY LACKING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS STRONG FORCING
AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANY LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY MORNING FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED
SPEEDS/GUSTS DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK. THE AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
60S OR EVEN COOLER.
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
RC/IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...FROM JUST NORTH OF RFD EAST TO PWK AND SOUTH THROUGH
IKK PER 05Z OB/SATELLITE. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG WILL INCH EAST
OVER ORD/MDW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SLOW/MINOR IMPROVEMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER MODELS
TYPICALLY BRING CONDITIONS UP TOO FAST. ASSUMING WE DO MIX
OUT/LIFT TO VFR FOR A WHILE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER SO SEE LITTLE REASON WHY WE WOULDNT SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN OUT
OF 180-220 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AND TIMING AT
ORD...MEDIUM AT MDW.
* MEDIUM IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. STRONG WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SPEEDS STEADILY INCREASING. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG OVER
THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG
EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WHATEVER FOG DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT
SHOULD ERODE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE...INITIALLY SOUTHERLY BUT
THEN TURNING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS TIME BUT WITH THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER
SPEEDS CONTINUING...COULD SEE FORECASTED HIGHER WINDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW VFR TO OCNL HIGH MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST AN OCCASIONAL PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS
HERE AND THERE. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS JUST BEGUN TO ERODE FROM THE
SW...WITH KTYR AND KLFK ABOUT TO GO SCT TO SKC. DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WHERE THIS OCCURS AS TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE DEWPOINTS. CLOUDS TO LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN WHERE SKIES
BECMG SKC FOR TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS
EAST...EXCEPT FOR KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS...WHICH MAY LOCK IN TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WED NIGHT./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY EXPANDING THE AREA OF PATCHY
FOG AND ADDED PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME TEXAS WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
TREND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY SOLID MVFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 04/06Z
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...AT MAINLY KTXK...KELD...AND
KMLU TERMINALS. HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTN ON WED...WITH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NE TX...WHERE S-SE BREEZES INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS./VII/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE
UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT
10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH
MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL
DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS
NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW
CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES
IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY
THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40
MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80
TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60
ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70
GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50
LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1014 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BY EXPANDING THE AREA OF PATCHY
FOG AND ADDED PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME TEXAS WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
TREND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY SOLID MVFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES AFTER 04/06Z
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...AT MAINLY KTXK...KELD...AND
KMLU TERMINALS. HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTN ON WED...WITH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
NE TX...WHERE S-SE BREEZES INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS./VII/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE
UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT
10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH
MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL
DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS
NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW
CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES
IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY
THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40
MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80
TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60
ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70
GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50
LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1230 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DID MANAGE TO ALLOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO START TO RISE IN OHIO. THIS WAS RATHER WELL
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR RUN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE STATISTICAL
PRODUCTS FAIL TO ADEQUATELY CAPTURE IT. AS A RESULT...DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. LOWS WERE SUMMARILY REDUCED
FOR MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. LIKEWISE...WITH A BIT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN
OHIO.
OTHERWISE...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN AS DEWPOINTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASING MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN BACK INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...EVEN WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN CONUS RIDGE WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY BE SEEN IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER
OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
CL
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS PROGGED WITH A FRIDAY COLD
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER
SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN
THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN
BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE
AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN
MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT
OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE
60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S
APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO
THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD
GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING
WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE
PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE
REALIZED.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A
BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VERY TRICKY CEILING FCST DUE TO HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY
THIS EVENING. SSE SURGE OF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT IN DOUBT BUT HOW
IT INTERACTS UNDERNEATH THE NIGHTLY INVERSION PLUS THE EVOLVING
MARINE LAYER SAGGING SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DETERMINE THE
BREADTH OF IFR CEILINGS TNGT. ATTM...ALL SITES ARE SKC SO HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE AS SUCH. HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGH DEGREE
OF PESSIMISM FROM THE PREVIOUS ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES AND MAINLY
CONFINED IFR CONDS TO TEMPO GROUPS WHILE STICKING WITH THE
PREVAILING MVFR IDEA THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED AMONG THE
HRRR/SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...AM NOT THINKING MVFR CONDS WILL
LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INDICATE AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TMRW.
KMSP...WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT CONDS AT KMSP THIS
SET. HAVE CONFINED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1700 FT CEILINGS ARND AND
JUST AFTER THE MRNG PUSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT SUCH
CONDS MAY BE REALIZED...PARTICULARLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS AND
STRONGER SLY WINDS SCOUR OUT LLVL MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE ATMOS.
HAVE SHOWN MVFR CEILINGS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR IFR-OR-WORSE
CONDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO AMENDMENTS MAY WELL STILL
BE NEEDED. ONCE INTO THE AFTN...HIGH CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WE ADDED FOG THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH SOME DENSE FOG
OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT AND WE MAY ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH
SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. WE WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BY 01Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD
OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN
AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE
EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED
CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND
950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO
USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE
MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER
MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS
SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM
NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS
WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR
SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS
LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND
THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN
CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4
KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING
A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING
AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN
COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
STRATUS COVERED MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PARK FALLS
HAVE REMAINED VFR AND THE STRATUS THAT THE MODELS INDICATED
EARLIER HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL
AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL BROUGHT LOWER CEILINGS INTO KBRD/KHYR
LATER TONIGHT AS THERE ENOUGH INDICATIONS THAT THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY FORM. FOG WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
VERSUS EASTERLY FURTHER NORTH.
MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70
INL 42 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70
BRD 48 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60
HYR 40 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70
ASX 43 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001>003.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL
AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION
OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME
EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS
AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD
COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...
DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT
MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS
NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT
OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON
HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS
THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN
CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VERY TRICKY CEILING FCST DUE TO HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY
THIS EVENING. SSE SURGE OF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT IN DOUBT BUT HOW
IT INTERACTS UNDERNEATH THE NIGHTLY INVERSION PLUS THE EVOLVING
MARINE LAYER SAGGING SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DETERMINE THE
BREADTH OF IFR CEILINGS TNGT. ATTM...ALL SITES ARE SKC SO HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO INITIALIZE AS SUCH. HAVE BACKED OFF THE HIGH DEGREE
OF PESSIMISM FROM THE PREVIOUS ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCES AND MAINLY
CONFINED IFR CONDS TO TEMPO GROUPS WHILE STICKING WITH THE
PREVAILING MVFR IDEA THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED AMONG THE
HRRR/SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...AM NOT THINKING MVFR CONDS WILL
LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INDICATE AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES BY MIDDAY TMRW.
KMSP...WENT MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT CONDS AT KMSP THIS
SET. HAVE CONFINED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1700 FT CEILINGS ARND AND
JUST AFTER THE MRNG PUSH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT SUCH
CONDS MAY BE REALIZED...PARTICULARLY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS AND
STRONGER SLY WINDS SCOUR OUT LLVL MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE ATMOS.
HAVE SHOWN MVFR CEILINGS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR IFR-OR-WORSE
CONDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO AMENDMENTS MAY WELL STILL
BE NEEDED. ONCE INTO THE AFTN...HIGH CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
354 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2015
Remnant stratus from Tuesday morning survived across some areas in
southeast MO and southwestern IL, edging southern and eastern
sections of STL Metro, and it was from here that this current round
of stratus and fog has developed. Stratus, thanks to the southerly
low level flow, has since expanded to cover nearly the entire CWA
save central and parts of northeast MO. Additional stratus that is
a bit higher is also surging northward from southern MO and far
western KY. Dense fog has been most prominent on the southeastern
edge of the stratus and has really not moved for much of the night--
persisting essentially where the remnant stratus was at the start of
last night: from roughly KFAM to K3LF, including much of STL Metro
East. Elsewhere, VSBY reductions exist, but they are not as
significant nor as widespread.
Analysis of several short-term hi-res model solutions appears to
show the most persistent area of dense fog remaining right where it
is, with minimal expansion perhaps to the NNW with the southerly
flow. This is currently covered well with the Dense Fog Advisory,
although it appears we will need to extend it to 16z (10am).
However, areas in west-central IL and northeast MO look to be shaky
with the Advisory as it stands now with better potential for more
isolated pockets of significant VSBY reduction versus widespread and
are being looked at for an early cancellation.
Area of slightly higher stratus surging thru southern MO and far
southern IL currently looks to eventually envelope the entire CWA by
late this morning. Given the time of day it is pushing north, into
what has been clear skies all night in central MO with minimal
dewpoint depressions, could see a brief episode of dense fog here as
well along this stratus` leading edge. Otherwise, gradual clearing
in the afternoon is anticipated areawide with the most persistent
cloud cover expected in the northern and eastern CWA.
Temperatures will once again be a challenge, with our area torn
between areas that stay cloudy all day barely breaking into the low
60s, and areas that see sun by early afternoon which will likely
break into the low to mid 70s. Have essentially leaned towards the
sunnier, warmer MAV MOS solution for most of the CWA except in the
north and east, where the cooler and cloudier MET MOS was favored.
As a footnote, for a few days now, various models have hinted at the
possibility of isolated SHRA in parts of southeast MO and southern
IL this afternoon. Hard to pin down what is driving this and so
will continue PoPs in these areas just below mentionable (10-14%)
for now.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2015
Tonight thru Thursday night
SW flow is expected to be firmly established at the beginning of the
prd with a strong ridge across the ern CONUS and a significant trof
digging into the intermountain west. Tonight will literally be the
calm before the storm. Lee side cyclogenesis will already be
underway by tonight across the cntrl high plains. The low will begin
to lift NE in response to an approaching short wave as it is ejected
from the long wave trof across the west. The upper lvl wave is fcst
to lift thru the region Thu night along with the attendant cold
front.
WAA will already be in full swing by this evng but with the very dry
nature of the existing atmosphere...it will take a considerable
amount of time to saturate the air mass...likely not until sometime
Thu mrng across cntrl MO. Precip should then make steady progress to
the N and E thru the remainder of the day. The cold front will bring
an end to the precip from west to east Thu night. Decent moisture
return means Dps should recover into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This
will produce limited instability on the order of a few hundred
Joules of MUCAPE. But as is often the case with cool season
events...this will be a low CAPE/high shear environment...with
100KTS expected at H500 and around 150 KTS at H300 by Thursday
night. This should be more than enough to generate storms. Some of
these could be strong...possibly severe with the main threat being
damaging straight line winds. As such...SPC has the entire CWA in a
marginal risk...which given the parameters looks justified. Although
FROPA is fcst for late evng into the overnight hrs...still think the
forcing assoc with this system is enough to keep the threat of
thunder going thru the night. All precip should be east of the FA by
Friday mrng.
Friday thru Tuesday
A strong 1030mb high is fcst to build into the region in concert
with an upper lvl ridge which will produce a seasonally cool wknd
with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Center of the high passes
to the east of the FA by Sunday with sthrly flow returning.
Upper pattern returns to SW flow by Monday as another trof moves
onshore along the west coast. Guidance begins to diverge at this
point as it deals with this energy towards midweek. The ECMWF moves
the exiting SFC high into the SE US early next week which sets the
stage for a WAA event on Tuesday on the backside of the retreating
SFC ridge whereas the GFS has the SFC ridge axis extending from the
Mid-Atlantic SW along the Gulf Coast early next week effectively
cutting off return flow moisture. They continue to diverge wrt the
upper lvl trof...but that is beyond the end of the fcst prd
thankfully.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Stratus deck as continue to slowly advect north and east while
also expanding. Should get to KCOU still around 0900 UTC. IFR
conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which
should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good
with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made
which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Another round of
fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...though later
and not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple
of nights.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement
which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly
good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes
made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Look for VFR
conditions by midday. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains
possible Wednesday night...around 0900 UTC...though not as bad
visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 74 60 72 54 / 5 5 40 90
Quincy 66 57 69 50 / 0 5 40 90
Columbia 73 58 69 49 / 0 5 60 80
Jefferson City 73 57 70 50 / 0 5 60 80
Salem 69 58 72 59 / 10 5 30 90
Farmington 72 58 69 58 / 10 5 50 90
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Franklin MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion
MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois
MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren
MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 708 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Dense fog is already starting to form in parts of south central
and southwest Illinois this evening. Expect this fog will spread
westward this evening and overnight at least to the Mississippi
river and into eastern Missouri. Will go ahead and issue a dense
fog advisory for these areas. Stronger gradient winds in the
boundary layer overnight across central and northeast Missouri may
keep the dense fog out, so will leave them out of the advisory foe
the moment and watch what happens. Advisory will be out shortly
and will run from 900 PM to 900 AM Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for
a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus
clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the
area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be
dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile.
It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where
the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest
values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest
surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10
degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the
low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively
high surface dew points for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once
again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location
of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job
with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud
deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area,
into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier
fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck.
This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like
it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR
guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low
level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified
than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there
should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may
not be quite a persistent as today.
Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon
cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in
the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly
signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud
trends become more clear.
The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern
remains with the storm system approaching the region on
Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly
good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly
out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday
evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and
associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring
some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday,
but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday
night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front,
and deep moisture all interact over the region.
Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection
Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red
River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this
activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due
to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of
convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges
across the area during the late evening and overnight hours.
Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season
severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern
attm.
Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a
very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or
early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a
threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early
Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain
going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm.
Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the
Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool
Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in
the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing
another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The
return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with
W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to
migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into
the area for the start of the new work week.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Stratus deck as continue to slowly advect north and east while
also expanding. Should get to KCOU still around 0900 UTC. IFR
conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement which
should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly good
with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes made
which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Another round of
fog and/or stratus remains possible Wednesday night...though later
and not as bad visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple
of nights.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR conditions expected into Wednesday morning with improvement
which should be more rapid than today. Previous TAF looked fairly
good with respect to timing of improvement so only minor changes
made which also closely matches latest HRRR guidance. Look for VFR
conditions by midday. Another round of fog and/or stratus remains
possible Wednesday night...around 0900 UTC...though not as bad
visby/ceiling wise as tonight nor the past couple of nights.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 57 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30
Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30
Columbia 55 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50
Jefferson City 54 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50
Salem 52 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30
Farmington 55 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Franklin MO-Iron
MO-Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-
St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
350 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL
ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS
NOSES INTO THE CWA.
A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z
RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED
QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. STRATUS DECK EDGING INTO KS/MO WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD...AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
AFFECT KOMA...AS WELL AS AT LEAST SKIRTING IF NOT OVERTAKING
KLNK/KOFK. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT
KOFK/KLNK...AND PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING
AT KOMA...FOR A PERIOD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE AM HOURS. LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT.
LATEST MODELS KEYING IN ON A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION...MOST
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES...DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A
S/WV IMPULSE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL SD
INTO EASTERN ND LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD
BE MUCH MORE INTERESTING AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AREA AS REDUCED VISIBILITY REPORTS ARE STARTING TO
COME IN THROUGHOUT MANY PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
LINE WITH GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...AREA WEBCAMS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN
DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10
KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS
HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL
WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT
YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER A FEW LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST
MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD
COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD
BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST
DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT
HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE
LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.
OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT
BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.
TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE
EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE
AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE...
AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH
850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING
PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS
RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE
COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL
RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED
UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY
STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY
MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS
WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED
STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR
PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HGIHS IN
THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END.
AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY
AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A
FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE
BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT
JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING
FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER
STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL
LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS
TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY
LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE
DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS
UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DECIDED FOR THE 06Z TAF SET TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE RAP IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND AVIATION MODEL IN THE LONGER TERM FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM PAINTS A TON OF STRATUS AROUND THE
AREA...THEN LINGERS IT ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS...IT CURRENTLY HAS
STRATUS RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS NONE AROUND. SO THE NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME IS NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY. THERE IS IFR AND MVFR STRATUS
IN OKLAHOMA...NOW STREAMING A BIT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS.
THEREFORE IF THE STRATUS ADVECTS IN INSTEAD OF DEVELOPS...THEN THE
RAP SEEMS REASONABLE IN PRODUCING AN IFR STRATUS DECK AT KFSD AND
KSUX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERS IT INTO LATE
MORNING. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NAM HAS A LOT OF LIGHT QPF FOR
KFSD AND KSUX WHICH LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE. BUT AGAIN THAT WILL ONLY
PAN OUT IF THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF STRATUS PRESENT WHICH IS THE
QUESTION MARK.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN SURGING WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL APPROACH 70
THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS TONIGHT...IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF A FALL FRONT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS REGARDING
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS
CPD PLOTS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 WILL HAVE RAPID
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MIXING WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AT TIMES DESPITE MIXY WINDS. FURTHER WEST...COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON.
CLOUDS AND WINDS MAY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD HIGH MINS.
WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY...STRONG WINDS SHOULD MIX THROUGH A
RELATIVELY THIN STRATUS LAYER. WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WOULD ANTICIPATE 70S ONCE AGAIN. THE QUESTIONABLE AREAS WILL
BE OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA COUNTIES WHERE STRATUS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO THIN. THE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD SHOULD HELP SCATTER
THINGS OUT EVEN IN THE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS AGAIN TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...BUT DISSIMILARITIES BETWEEN
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE BECOME LESS AND LESS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL EXTEND RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH
MATCHING THE SWODY2 OUTLOOK.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE POST FRONTAL
REGIME THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RATHER STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD. GIVEN
TIME OF THE DAY...FEEL THE RISK FOR SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN IS
LOW...BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.
WILL ALSO ADVERTISE A NON-STANDARD DIURNAL TREND FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 18Z WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
ON THURSDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS ON THROUGH WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING IN OUR EAST. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL OFF OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH
LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S.
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS JUST
EITHER SIDE OF 50. KEPT ANY CHANCES OF POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST...WITH ONLY THE GFS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RUNNING MAINLY 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DECIDED FOR THE 06Z TAF SET TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE RAP IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND AVIATION MODEL IN THE LONGER TERM FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM PAINTS A TON OF STRATUS AROUND THE
AREA...THEN LINGERS IT ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS...IT CURRENTLY HAS
STRATUS RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS NONE AROUND. SO THE NAM SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME IS NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY. THERE IS IFR AND MVFR STRATUS
IN OKLAHOMA...NOW STREAMING A BIT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS.
THEREFORE IF THE STRATUS ADVECTS IN INSTEAD OF DEVELOPS...THEN THE
RAP SEEMS REASONABLE IN PRODUCING AN IFR STRATUS DECK AT KFSD AND
KSUX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERS IT INTO LATE
MORNING. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NAM HAS A LOT OF LIGHT QPF FOR
KFSD AND KSUX WHICH LOOKS LIKE DRIZZLE. BUT AGAIN THAT WILL ONLY
PAN OUT IF THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF STRATUS PRESENT WHICH IS THE
QUESTION MARK.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE EJECTING
SOUTHWEST JET MAX IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SECOND
JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE 925/850 MB WINDS ARE WEAK TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT
INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE 0706Z VIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SHOWS THE STRATUS
DISTRIBUTION VERY WELL. DUE TO THE SHALLOW THICKNESS OF THE
STRATUS...THE CITY LIGHTS ARE SHINING THROUGH. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE.
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS SLOW...BUT IS EXPANDING. THE GOES CLOUD
THICKNESS ALSO SHOWS THE STRATUS VS FOG DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT
VERY WELL. WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE DENSE...IT APPEARS VISIBILITIES
IN MOST AREAS RISE A LITTLE AS THE STRATUS FORMS. THEREFORE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS MOMENT.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS
WILL SLOW WARMING.
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH...SO ANY LAKE
COOLING WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH INLAND. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY
TONIGHT.
.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
GFS IS NOW SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR TO THE NAM. ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO KEPT PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THUS...LOWERED GUSTS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW LEVELS IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A POTENT
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS IS STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE MODELS HINTING AT WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS PARTS
OF THE WEST AND SOUTH IN A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS WE CAN GET A FAST MOVING LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...THAT BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE INFORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HERE...AND IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING COLDER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION...ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY LOWER END POPS FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND QPF.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIFR CIGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS
IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER VIRS DAY/NIGHT SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE ATTM. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PER THE 21Z SREF LOW
CIGS PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND THE IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
KMSN AROUND 07Z...AND KUES AROUND 08Z. MORE UNCERTAINTY AT KENW
AND KMKE SO ONLY HAVE SCT IFR CIGS THERE. MOST OF SRN WI WILL SEE
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PUT IN AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
WILL TAKE UNTIL MID-MORNING FOR THE CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS MVFR FOG CHANCES BACK IN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER 04Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
UPDATE...
FOCUS REMAINS ON FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW STRATUS OVER IL...ASSOCIATED WITH RIBBON OF HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR...DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO SRN WISCONSIN PER RAP AND
SPC FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS BRINGING
RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO PLAY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NARROWING
..WITH MONROE AND JANESVILLE BELOW 6 MILES AT 02Z AND OTHER SITES
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY 2 DEGREES.
THE 21Z SREF FORECASTS ARE NOW SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITIES...70
TO 80 PCT..OF VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
FOND DU LAC...SLINGER...HARTLAND TO ELKHORN LINE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. 01Z HRRR EVEN LOWER WITH VSBYS ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPS HOLDING UP IN EASTERN SITES NEAR THE LAKE...KEEPING DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH ENOUGH FOR EVEN THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
GUIDANCE FROM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP BY 03Z...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE WESTERN CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOWEST VSBYS. WILL SEE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS...BUT RIGHT
NOW DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG
THAT WILL BE IN PLAY FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...UPDATED
LATEST SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS
EARLIER RUN. HIGHER DEW POINT AIR STRUGGLES TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI
ON SPC MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. SREF CLOUD
PROBABILITY OF CIG LESS THAN 3K FT ALSO KEEPING BETTER CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BRING MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG AROUND/JUST AFTER
09Z...BUT KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS WITH SCT IFR. WILL MONITOR BAND
OF IFR STRATUS IN CENTRAL IL THAT APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING TO THE
NW BUT IS NOT EXPANDING AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN POINT OF FOCUS TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL
TRANSLATE NORTH INTO S WI. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE PROGGING DEWPTS
INTO THE LOWER 50S BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
12Z WED.
BROKEN SKY COVER IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SCATTERED
SKIES DURING THE DAY WED...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 925MB TEMPS ARE STILL VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 14 AND 17C. SO DROPPED HIGHS FOR WED.
INTO THE MID 60S DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS S WI AS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO WEST...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST MN. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT ONE THAT IS
LIKELY TO BE MOIST ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN EVER EXPANDING AND
UNPREDICTABLE LOWER STRATUS DECK. TIMING OF THE FIRST CHANCES OF
RAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON AFTER
MID DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE DETAILS HAVEN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF SPINNING
OUT OF SRN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE IT/S EAST THEN NORTHEAST PROGRESS THIS WEEK...KICKING
OUT A VERY INTENSE SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY. THAT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING PRECIP FIELD OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PW/S WILL BE ABOUT 1-1.3 INCHES AND THE
DEEP LAYER FORCING/UVV REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY CENTERED
AROUND 04-08Z FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT...SO THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM HAS
PICKED UP AND THE RAIN MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR THE EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING AND VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE 50S...ACTUALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER DECENT FALL
WEEKEND AROUND HERE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT OFF ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO COME IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT IN THIS OPEN WAVE. THE GFS IS
FASTER...BRINGING CHANCES IN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF DELAYS THOSE CHANCES UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THEY BOTH SPIN UP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ISN/T MUCH AGREEMENT IN
TIMING/SHAPE/INTENSITY/TRACK...SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TONIGHT UNTIL A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS COULD REACH INTO THE IFR
CRITERIA AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS. SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO S WI. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR AND UPPER
IFR CATEGORIES FOR SOME TAF SITES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS
RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT
BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED.
SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT
IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE
THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND
COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS
FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB
PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY
COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS
DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD
BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A
VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS
SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE
STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH
DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY
DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX
WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW
FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE EXTENT OF THE
FG/ST THAT DEVELOPS TNGT. THUS FAR...FG HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
LAKESHORE AREAS. SOME FOG MAY FORM FARTHER INLAND LATER
TNGT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING
OUT OF HAND...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. MEANWHILE...RAPIDLY EXPANDING
AREA OF FG/ST WAS RACING NWD ACRS IL...AND JUST ABOUT TO ENTER SRN
WI. EXTRAP WOULD BRING THAT INTO THE C/E-C TAF SITES BTWN 08Z AND
11Z. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO GET RID OF THAT TOMORROW...THOUGH IT
WL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY BUT ALSO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS REPOSITIONED
FARTHER NORTH...WHICH HAS CAUSED EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO INCREASE A
TAD. THIS HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO THE COAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE MORNING
CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUNDINGS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WAS STILL PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE SO
THE MOIST LAYER WAS STILL NOT THAT DEEP. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE PRESENT MID LEVEL TEMPS
(MINUS 5-6 DEGREES AT 500 MB).
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND
QUICKER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING A SMALL
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE PROSPECT FOR RECORD HIGHS THOUGH MELBOURNE
AND VERO BEACH WILL GET CLOSE (SEE BELOW). THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RECORD WARM LOWS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EARLY MORNING INLAND STRATUS HAD RECENTLY BROKE UP...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT SEVERAL TERMINALS AS DAYTIME HEATING
GENERATES A RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MARCHING INLAND WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR-IFR MAINLY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST
LOW LEVELS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP A COASTAL SHOWER CHANCE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH OF THE WATERS. A
MORE PREDOMINANT WIND WAVE WILL RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS
TO REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHTER ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTH
WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET TODAY WITH UP
TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
LOC DATE HI-MAX HI-MIN
DAB 4-NOV 88 2004 73 1934
MCO 4-NOV 90 1934 73 2003
MLB 4-NOV 87 1948 76 2003
VRB 4-NOV 87 2002 76 1992
DAB 5-NOV 88 2003 75 2003
MCO 5-NOV 91 1934 72 2003
MLB 5-NOV 91 1992 75 2003
VRB 5-NOV 92 1992 74 2003
DAB 6-NOV 88 1948 73 1975
MCO 6-NOV 89 1959 73 1972
MLB 6-NOV 88 2002 75 1971
VRB 6-NOV 92 2002 73 2003
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Areas of VLIFR vsbys are expected thru about 15z with IFR cigs
possible into the early afternoon hours. Lower vsbys much more
variable across the area than what we saw yesterday at this
time. However, short term models continue to suggest the threat
will continue over the area, especially in locations that were
currently and have been down to less than 1 mile. The threat
for the low vsbys will gradually end by 15 or 16z with more of
a stratus layer prevailing into the afternoon hours with only
a gradual increase in cig bases expected. If we can scatter
out for a time later this afternoon, there will be another
threat for some patchy dense (IFR or lower conditions) tonight.
Southerly winds are expected again today and tonight at around
10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER
SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN
THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN
BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE
AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN
MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT
OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE
60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S
APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO
THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD
GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING
WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE
PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE
REALIZED.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A
BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIG LIMITED TO
MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT TREND OF
THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING.
WENT WITH SOME FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIX GIVING
A MORE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP
OFF THIS EVENING OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 06Z AT KAXN AND AFTER 08Z AT KRWF.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO BEGAN TREND WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
CEILING SHOULD TREND TOWARD IFR AFTER 06Z TO THE EAST AS WELL.
KMSP...CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT APPEARS IF
A LOW END MVFR CIG DID DEVELOP IT WOULD BE 14Z-18Z PER TREND OF
THE 09Z HRRR. VFR INTO THE EVENING BECOMING MVFR CIG/BR AFTER 06Z
AND IFR AFTER 08Z. PRIMARILY SOUTHER WIND WITH SOME GUTS TO 22
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DARK.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU AFETRNOON...VFR WITH MVFR SHRA LIKELY ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE.
WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL
ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS
NOSES INTO THE CWA.
A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z
RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED
QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS MRNG AND WILL CONT TO AFFECT
THE KOMA/KLNK TAF WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
TIME FRAME. THIS DECK MAY GET AS FAR NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE KOFK AND
WE WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP HERE FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS.
THE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN/EVNG. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS
AT ALL 3 SITES. WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KOMA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ/SHRA...ESPECIALLY
AT KOFK BUT WILL HOLD OF INCLUDING NOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INVADE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A KTCC
TO KROW LINE. PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.
SOME BREAKS IN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD HAMPER WESTERN
TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO SUCH AS
KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE W OF THE CONTDVD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD DROP
NEAR 8500 FT TONIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6500 FEET ACROSS
FAR NW AREAS AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WED AFTN.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN LOWER FURTHER WED NIGHT. SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/SHSN ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MT OBSCURATIONS WITH MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS WED.
ISOLD TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
N CENTRAL NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WED.
44
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 50 29 48 24 / 70 50 30 0
DULCE........................... 48 25 42 13 / 90 60 50 5
CUBA............................ 51 27 42 21 / 70 50 40 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 25 44 18 / 70 50 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 23 42 17 / 60 50 30 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 25 47 18 / 50 40 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 29 43 21 / 40 40 30 0
GLENWOOD........................ 60 33 51 26 / 60 30 10 0
CHAMA........................... 47 22 36 14 / 90 70 50 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 29 43 25 / 60 40 30 0
PECOS........................... 52 30 43 24 / 50 30 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 24 41 17 / 60 50 30 5
RED RIVER....................... 47 20 34 13 / 70 60 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 25 38 15 / 70 40 20 0
TAOS............................ 53 26 42 18 / 60 40 20 0
MORA............................ 51 28 44 21 / 50 40 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 29 47 21 / 60 30 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 27 43 22 / 60 40 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 30 46 24 / 60 30 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 33 48 28 / 50 30 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 36 52 31 / 50 20 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 30 53 25 / 50 20 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 30 52 25 / 50 20 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 32 54 28 / 50 20 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 34 52 28 / 50 20 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 64 35 59 28 / 50 20 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 29 45 26 / 50 20 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 30 47 27 / 50 20 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 28 51 19 / 50 20 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 30 46 25 / 40 20 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 33 50 27 / 40 20 20 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 36 54 29 / 40 20 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 33 50 29 / 30 20 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 64 31 53 22 / 20 40 20 0
RATON........................... 63 28 53 21 / 20 40 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 61 28 51 22 / 20 20 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 29 50 23 / 30 30 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 36 60 28 / 10 30 10 0
ROY............................. 67 32 55 27 / 20 30 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 70 36 57 29 / 20 20 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 37 59 31 / 20 20 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 75 40 64 31 / 5 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 72 39 62 33 / 5 10 10 0
PORTALES........................ 74 40 63 33 / 5 10 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 39 63 31 / 5 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 76 40 68 32 / 5 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 67 36 62 29 / 10 10 5 0
ELK............................. 62 36 54 28 / 10 20 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS INTO EARLY AFTN
WITH SPARSE COVERAGE CURRENTLY OVER AREA. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
INDICATE VERY LITTLE COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WHILE SREF DOES INDICATE
SOME INCREASE FROM S TO N. WEAK MCV IS EVIDENT IN ROTATION OF
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF NE SC...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
AT LEAST SRN PART OF AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHC N TO
CHC S REST OF MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO LIKELY SRN 2/3 THIS
AFTN. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS MOST AREAS WTIH LOW
CLOUDS LIMITING INSOLATION.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST TRYING DETERMINE THE
TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORCING
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
IT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE MODEST LIFT, ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK GOING AND PRODUCE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF RUNS WERE VERY BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS TO DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY WHILE THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS MUCH LESS THAN THE ECMWF. NOT SURE IF THIS WAS DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE ECMWF OR IF THE MODEL IS PICKING UP ON
SOME KIND OF DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH A WELL DEFINED 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 " THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMP FORECAST TODAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK
SHOULD PERSIST ALONG WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S, HOWEVER, THE MOS
GUIDANCE WAS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. WENT WITH THE GUIDANCE BUT WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NC AND
OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COULD ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. CONTINUED TREND OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHEST POPS COAST (LIKELY) AND CHANCE
INLAND DURING THE EVENING. THEN WILL INDICATE LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST FORCING SLIDES. THERE ARE
STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING DENSE FOG. MILD LOWS
WILL CONTINUE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THU...AS
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
SC/LOW CHANCE RAIN THU...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
TEMPS WARMING INTO FRI...WITH DRYING AND CLEARING. FRI LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW...HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR FRI WITH LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E SUN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DUE TO LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW DAYS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NNW INTO MON. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO WITH MOISTURE SHUNTED MORE TO
THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED PREVIOUS POPS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...AND
FAVORED A DRIER SOLUTION JUST KEEPING SC POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON...IN THE 60S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...CLOUD BASES HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO LOWER
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE KOAJ/KEWN
12-18ZTODAY AS AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE. WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY TO VFR LATE TODAY DUE TO CONVECTIVE MIXING BUT
WITH CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW PERSISTING THINK LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THU...AS RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF AND LOWER CEILINGS LIFT. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR
TO RETURN BY LATE THU AND INTO EARLY SAT. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AND SAT MORNINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS SAT EVENING/SAT NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. VFR
SHOULD RETURN SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX WORDING PER NEAR
TERM SECTION...NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE WATERS WHILE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST
OF THE MODELS INDICATE VEERING FLOW FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST 10
TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATED STRONGER SE FLOW TO 20 KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...WEAK LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE WATERS THU. PRED E/SE WINDS 5-15KT THU WITH SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH
OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
S/SW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE
WNW FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOVING THROUGH SAT EVENING/SAT NIGHT.
COULD SEE PRE-FRONTAL SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. STRONG CAA
SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MOST OF
WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
538 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST
MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD
COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD
BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST
DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT
HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE
LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.
OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT
BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.
TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE
EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE
AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE...
AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH
850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING
PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS
RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE
COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL
RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED
UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY
STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY
MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS
WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED
STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR
PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END.
AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY
AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A
FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE
BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT
JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING
FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER
STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL
LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS
TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY
LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE
DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS
UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
CURRENTLY STRATUS IS DEVELOPING/ADVECTING NORTHWARD RIGHT ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND ALSO INTO THE STORM LAKE AREA.
FEEL THAT IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING...THERE WAS LITTLE NEED
TO CHANGE THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES WITH THE MENTION OF IFR TO
LOWER END MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. CONTINUED TO PRIMARILY USE
THE RAP MODEL FOR THE MORNING HOURS...THEN THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH THE NAM LOOKING WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC AT KHON
CURRENTLY. IN FACT KHON IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT IT LOOKED LIKE ON
THE VIS/FOG CURVE ON THE IR SATELLITE THAT THERE WAS SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS JUST WEST OF KHON BEFORE THE HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THEM
UP. HARD TO TELL HOW HIGH THOSE CLOUDS WERE...SO KEPT A SCATTERED
DECK AT FIVE HUNDRED FEET AGL FOR THEM IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OUR ZONES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 TONIGHT BRINGING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FOR KHON. THE GFS STRONGLY HINTS AT AN IFR DECK
EVENTUALLY LATE TONIGHT FOR KHON WHICH STANDS TO REASON AS THERE
ARE A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN SD RIGHT
NOW. KEPT KFSD AND KSUX AT MVFR TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND. IT IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSRA TONIGHT FOR KFSD AND
KSUX...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY TO BE PINPOINTING THAT DOWN.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1039 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE A
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NC TOP A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RAP SHOWS SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ALBEIT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 800MB...TO MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. DON`T EXPECT IT TO
BE A COMPLETELY WET DAY THOUGH..AND SOME SUN MAY PEAK TROUGH AT
TIMES WITH DRIER AIR JUST OFF TO THE NORTH. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA NORTHWARD
THROUGH SE WV...ALLEGHANYS AND PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...TO UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF ROANOKE TO MOUNT AIRY/WILKESBORO NC. -22
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THE LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH. WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN
MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE WV/VA BORDER BEFORE THE FOCUS STARTS TO
SHIFT BACK EAST THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER
POPS 40-50 EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS...TO CHANCE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S
EAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEW
RIVER VALLEY AS CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. -WP
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY KICK OUT
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH
A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES AN EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVES DIG A TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT BUT
MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY
EVENING. AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT GRADUALLY CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ARE LACKING. WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE
A SOLID FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK
GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
QUESTIONS IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS QUITE DRY/COOL
WITH THE HIGH ABOUT OVERHEAD AND LITTLE RETURN FLOW INTO THE WEDGE
UNTIL MONDAY...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING MORE
COASTAL TROFFINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING PERHAPS SOME
-RA BACK INTO THE COOL POOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ONSET OF THE DRY ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT INITIALLY BEFORE ANY
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRIER
WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA RETURNING BY TUESDAY. COOLER 85H TEMPS ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY- MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO UPPER 50S/LOW
60S UNDER BETTER RETURN FLOW TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM
1500-4500 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR DANVILLE EARLY
BUT BEST THREAT OF THIS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MODELS FAVOR BKN TO SCT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT LWB/BLF AT TIMES
THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP A CIG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR. DRIER ABOVE THE LOWEST
LVLS MAY CREATE A FOG ISSUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE WEDGE FROM
THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP/22
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
417 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A VIGOROUS/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO CENTRAL
WY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD PER THE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST TODAY
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 130-140
KNOT H25 JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN NE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 03Z THU. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL YIELD
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BANDING. WE MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF ONE INCH PER HOUR GIVEN NEGATIVE EPVS AND WEAK LLVL CAPE APPARENT
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL DYNAMIC/MESOSCALE
SETUP LENDS CREDENCE TO STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH FROM THE SUMMIT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WE CONTINUE TO
SEE BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HERE...SO NOW THE
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGH MTNS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WY. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AFTER 18Z BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THINK THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY 00Z ABOVE 7K FEET...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF OUR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE HERE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO WITH RAIN/MELTING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL QUITE
TREACHEROUS. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE I-
80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WE ALSO ADDED THE CENTRAL
LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY MAY SEE
AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER AS WELL. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WERE PLACED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AS THE 06Z NAM STILL SUGGESTS SOME THREAT
FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IN CHEYENNE. DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS INTO
FAR EASTERN WY AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH. DO
NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY AS EVEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
DO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WELL BELOW FREEZING AT -5 TO -7C. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH MAINLY TEMPERATURES.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THINKING IS THAT BY NOON TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. 700MB WINDS BEGIN
PICKING UP THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. GFS 700MB
WINDS OF 45-50KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. LATEST WRKHGT
GUIDANCE SHOWING 850/700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS
INCREASING TO 40/45MTRS RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD HAVE SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID NOT INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST YET...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOKS AFTER WE
SEE WHAT ACCUMULATIONS WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED/CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE. PROBABLY OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -12C ACROSS OUT
NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS.
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S EAST. DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO +4 TO +5C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA.
GETTING CLOSE TO ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT FOR SUNDAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB
HEIGHT GRADIENTS GETTING CLOSE TO 60MTRS SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE DO HAVE WIND HEADLINES OUT FOR THAT TIME.
BEGIN TO SEE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST OF
THE PRECIP THOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
CONDITIONS ARE COMING DOWN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 11Z. HRRR PICKED THIS UP WELL AND SPREADS IT
SOUTH TO KAIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINK KCDR AND KAIA WILL STAY
DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME. COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS RAIN TURNS OVER TO SNOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ106-116-117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ107-110-115-118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
942 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS THE VALLEYS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES
EXTENDING FROM THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTY EWD INTO GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. MOST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE LAST NIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN ERN PIMA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OCCURRED NORTH OF TUCSON ACROSS PINAL COUNTY. LIQUID
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE CATALINA/RINCON
MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON...HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE HALF OF AN
INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE MOSTLY JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...ALTHOUGH MOUNT GRAHAM APPEARS TO HAVE RECEIVED A TRACE OF
SNOW TO PERHAPS ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL.
OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA VALID 16Z.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 5-15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
04/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.78 INCH. THE
COLUMN WAS SATURATED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND WAS VERY DRY ABOVE
650 MB. 04/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/SWRN CONUS WITH A 547 DM LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN NEVADA. A 110 KT JET MAX WAS ANALYZED AT 300 MB
OVER SE ARIZONA...AND MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THIS FORECAST AREA.
VARIOUS 04/12Z NWP MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF TWO DISTINCT
IMPULSES...THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX ALOFT...WILL MOVE WELL NEWD
BEYOND THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE ONGOING PRECIP IS NOT HANDLED VERY
WELL BY SEVERAL RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT ANY RATE...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY. THERE APPEARS
TO BE JUST ENOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD AND FILL NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SECOND IMPULSE ALOFT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL ARIZONA. 04/12Z NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
TO OCCUR TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM TUCSON NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE...AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO 6000-7000 FEET BY DAYBREAK THUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
AROUND 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMS BY THUR MORNING ACROSS THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT
GRAHAM SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THEREAFTER...CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST THUR WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN
PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-
15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TUE...THEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THUR.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 6K-10K FT MSL THRU TONIGHT...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM SW-NE
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND TODAY SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AT 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
EXPECT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /250 AM MST/...ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE EAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH A WEAK SECONDARY
TROUGH SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NOT MUCH...IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SO DRY WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEMS
PASSAGE...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF US.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR NOW I HAVE MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING
FALLING TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOSTLY
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GRAHAM
COUNTY. SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOW TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN
WHAT I AM CURRENTLY FORECASTING...SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SITUATION AND WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO STAY TUNED.
FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE
4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 7 TO 9 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST
OBS...TRENDS...AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES
OVER THE SW MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE SN PICK UP OVER THE NRN RANGES. TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...SPREADING TO
THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE EVEN OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT 40 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREADS.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS A BIT SINCE WE ARE
ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGHS...AND SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ALOFT WILL NOT OCCUR TIL LATER TODAY. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON
TRACK. LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR
OVER ERN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE HAS SET UP
EAST OF KLAA AND KSPD...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE KANSAS
BORDER LATER TODAY GIVEN VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THIS AREA. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
...WINDY AND MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS...
SNOW IS FLYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS PER WEB CAMS. RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOW PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE
THIS MORNING...WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING GOING ON AT THIS HOUR...WITH 3
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES NORTHEAST OF DURANGO...AND
14 STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES...BETWEEN CORTEZ AND DURANGO.
THAT`S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR 4 AM ON A NOVEMBER 4TH MORNING IN THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. SO...PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE WAY.
THIS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE STEEP SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...PROMISES A GOOD SNOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY 10-20 INCHES BY STORM`S END THURSDAY.
WOLF CREEK PASS SHOULD DO WELL. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CATCH
SOME TOO. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEM`S GOOD DYNAMIC
FORCING. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP SNOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AT
THAT TIME. TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MOSTLY RUN 4 TO 8
INCHES...BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE AND
NORTHERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW.
NOT A PARTICULARLY BIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS COULD SEE MAYBE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAINLY ABOVE 10
THOUSAND FEET. THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE WET MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
MAYBE 1 TO 3 ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE
PALMER DIVIDE COULD PERHAPS SEE A FEW WET FLAKES TONIGHT AS SHOWERS
SKIRT ACROSS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW...JUST SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW TO
BLOW...BUT STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE
WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING A FIRE IN DEAD FUELS
RAPIDLY SHOULD ONE GET GOING. SO...CAUTION MUST CONTINUE ON THIS
FRONT.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY HAVE NOCTURNAL
STUFF GOING ON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS I WRITE. AS THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE HEAT UP A
LITTLE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EAST AS WELL.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE SOMETHING COULD FIRE. SPC HAS THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BACA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO COOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TODAY AS CLOUDS...
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR BEGIN TO ADVANCE. HOWEVER...STILL
PRETTY WARM OVER THE EAST...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE IN
COMBINATION WITH PLENTY OF SUN. PROBABLY NO RECORDS TODAY...THOUGH
IT COULD BE CLOSE AT PLACES LIKE LAMAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THU MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS...AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE E
PLAINS THU MORNING...PROMPTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AS
WELL AS A 20 DEGREE COOLDOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER...AND THE ONGOING
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS THU MORN AND AFTN LOOKS GOOD.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHUTDOWN THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO A NW DIRECTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRI ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND GIVES THE FORECAST AREA A GLANCING BLOW...ALLOWING
ISOLATED PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS...BOTH
FRI AND SAT MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR
THE E PLAINS. SUN AND MON THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT EXPECTED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE E PLAINS. SAVE FOR THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRI OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON.
TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MON
INTO TUE...THOUGH THE EC DIGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
TIME...THIS TRACK WILL BRING ISOLATED PCPN TO THE CONTDVD TUE
MORN...THEN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AS PCPN SPREADS
TO THE SLV AND E MTS. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE STORM MOVING THROUGH CO TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING HEAVY SN OVR
THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN LUSI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE SCT BUT BRIEFLY COULD
AFFECT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT KALS. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 12-14Z
AT KCOS...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME VFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS THU MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES
EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AREA-WIDE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW
BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
958 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST
OBS...TRENDS...AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES
OVER THE SW MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE SN PICK UP OVER THE NRN RANGES. TREND WILL BE FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...SPREADING TO
THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE EVEN OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT 40 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREADS.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS A BIT SINCE WE ARE
ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGHS...AND SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ALOFT WILL NOT OCCUR TIL LATER TODAY. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON
TRACK. LATEST SPC DAY ONE CONTINUES A MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR
OVER ERN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE HAS SET UP
EAST OF KLAA AND KSPD...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE KANSAS
BORDER LATER TODAY GIVEN VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THIS AREA. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
...WINDY AND MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS...
SNOW IS FLYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS PER WEB CAMS. RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOW PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE
THIS MORNING...WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING GOING ON AT THIS HOUR...WITH 3
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES NORTHEAST OF DURANGO...AND
14 STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES...BETWEEN CORTEZ AND DURANGO.
THAT`S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR 4 AM ON A NOVEMBER 4TH MORNING IN THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. SO...PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE WAY.
THIS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE STEEP SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...PROMISES A GOOD SNOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY 10-20 INCHES BY STORM`S END THURSDAY.
WOLF CREEK PASS SHOULD DO WELL. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CATCH
SOME TOO. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THEY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEM`S GOOD DYNAMIC
FORCING. ALSO...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP SNOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AT
THAT TIME. TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MOSTLY RUN 4 TO 8
INCHES...BUT A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE AND
NORTHERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW.
NOT A PARTICULARLY BIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS COULD SEE MAYBE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAINLY ABOVE 10
THOUSAND FEET. THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE WET MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
MAYBE 1 TO 3 ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE
PALMER DIVIDE COULD PERHAPS SEE A FEW WET FLAKES TONIGHT AS SHOWERS
SKIRT ACROSS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW...JUST SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...NO SNOW TO
BLOW...BUT STILL ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE
WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING A FIRE IN DEAD FUELS
RAPIDLY SHOULD ONE GET GOING. SO...CAUTION MUST CONTINUE ON THIS
FRONT.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY HAVE NOCTURNAL
STUFF GOING ON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS I WRITE. AS THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND WE HEAT UP A
LITTLE...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EAST AS WELL.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE SOMETHING COULD FIRE. SPC HAS THE AREA JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BACA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO COOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TODAY AS CLOUDS...
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR BEGIN TO ADVANCE. HOWEVER...STILL
PRETTY WARM OVER THE EAST...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE IN
COMBINATION WITH PLENTY OF SUN. PROBABLY NO RECORDS TODAY...THOUGH
IT COULD BE CLOSE AT PLACES LIKE LAMAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THU MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS...AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE E
PLAINS THU MORNING...PROMPTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AS
WELL AS A 20 DEGREE COOLDOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. MUCH OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER...AND THE ONGOING
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS THU MORN AND AFTN LOOKS GOOD.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHUTDOWN THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO A NW DIRECTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRI ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND GIVES THE FORECAST AREA A GLANCING BLOW...ALLOWING
ISOLATED PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR MINIMUM TEMPS...BOTH
FRI AND SAT MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR
THE E PLAINS. SUN AND MON THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT EXPECTED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE E PLAINS. SAVE FOR THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FRI OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON.
TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MON
INTO TUE...THOUGH THE EC DIGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
TIME...THIS TRACK WILL BRING ISOLATED PCPN TO THE CONTDVD TUE
MORN...THEN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AS PCPN SPREADS
TO THE SLV AND E MTS. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
MAJOR WINTER STORM ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE...SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY SPOTTY
EARLY...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS...LARGELY VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCAL
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN PASSING SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF SPELL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR THE TAF SITES...KALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
CARRY VCSH THERE FOR NOW STARTING 18Z. FOR KCOS AND KPUB...LESS
LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS BUT STILL A SMALL CHANCE...THOUGH TOO SMALL TO
CARRY IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF SHOWERS END UP MOVING ACROSS
THESE SITES...COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Broad southwesterly flow continues to bring unseasonably
warm/moist air into the region today. As has been the case for the
past couple of days, widespread dense fog once again developed
last night and persisted into the morning hours. 16z/10 am obs
showed most of the fog had dissipated, with some patchy 2-4 mile
visbys still noted between the Illinois River and I-55. Based on
trends and most recent HRRR forecast, expect fog to completely
dissipate over the next hour. The primary short-term forecast challenge
for the remainder of the day will be amount of cloud cover and its
impact on afternoon high temps. While the fog/low clouds will fade
away, additional cloud cover at around 3,000-4,000ft is currently
spreading northward from southern Illinois/Missouri. Think this
will overspread much of the area, but partially dissipate during
peak heating. End result will be partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s to around
70, but will rise into the middle 70s near the Indiana border
where ample sunshine has already occurred this morning. Forecast
update to remove Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Atlantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Low clouds/fog continue to dissipate late this morning...however
a couple patches of IFR conditions will persist at KPIA and KSPI
through 19z. Meanwhile...an area of 3000-4000 foot ceilings
currently across southwest Illinois will lift northward and
overspread the central Illinois terminals between 19z and 22z. RAP
forecast soundings show this moisture quite well and indicate it
will stick around through the night. Main aviation forecast
question will be how much fog will re-develop tonight. With
airmass unchanged and a moist low-level flow continuing, am
expecting patchy fog once again...however am not anticipating
dense fog. With low clouds in place and slightly stronger
southerly winds in advance of an approaching cold front, think
mixing will prevent the widespread low visbys noted the past few
nights. Instead, will only feature 3-4SM visbys between 03z and
16z. After that, winds will become southwesterly and increase to
between 10 and 15kt by late Thursday morning, with any showers
holding off until later in the day.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Broad southwesterly flow continues to bring unseasonably
warm/moist air into the region today. As has been the case for the
past couple of days, widespread dense fog once again developed
last night and persisted into the morning hours. 16z/10 am obs
showed most of the fog had dissipated, with some patchy 2-4 mile
visbys still noted between the Illinois River and I-55. Based on
trends and most recent HRRR forecast, expect fog to completely
dissipate over the next hour. The primary short-term forecast challenge
for the remainder of the day will be amount of cloud cover and its
impact on afternoon high temps. While the fog/low clouds will fade
away, additional cloud cover at around 3,000-4,000ft is currently
spreading northward from southern Illinois/Missouri. Think this
will overspread much of the area, but partially dissipate during
peak heating. End result will be partly to mostly cloudy
conditions. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s to around
70, but will rise into the middle 70s near the Indiana border
where ample sunshine has already occurred this morning. Forecast
update to remove Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Main forecast concern continues to be with the extent of dense fog across
the area this morning. Visibilities are all over the place this morning
with the more concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities running from
Taylorville to Decatur to Lincoln to near Bloomington. HRRR model suggests
we may see the area expand a bit to the west and north this morning, while
the east and especially the southeast, which has enjoyed unrestricted
visibilities may have those hold thru the morning. No changes planned to
the current Advisory area at this time.
Later this morning into the afternoon hours, forecast soundings indicate
once again that the stratus deck may be tough to erode with even a larger
area of stratus and stratocumulus to our south early this morning progged
to move north into our area today. In fact, most of the soundings showing
a deeper moist layer from the surface to up to 1500 feet by late this
morning into the afternoon hours with a fairly significant inversion
remaining locked in place just above that thru the day. This will once
again have a significant impact on afternoon highs with the warmer readings,
lower 70s over the far east and southeast, while the coolest temps this
afternoon, mid 60s, will be in the central and western counties where the
stratus is expected to hold into the late afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Some fog will develop again during this evening into overnight
and early Thu morning, and could become dense in places, especially
eastern IL. Mild lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Low pressure to eject ne from CO to north of the Great Lakes by dawn
Friday and sweep a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph ahead of cold front on Thu to
bring one more unseasonably mild day with highs in the lower 70s.
Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon, except chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms sw of Lincoln during mid/late Thu
afternoon. Then occasional showers and chance of a few thunderstorms
Thu night as cold front passes through overnight Thu night.
Instability is quite weak though wind shear is strong over IL. SPC
continues a marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for wind over much
of IL Thu night with a possible thin squall line with gusty winds.
Slight risk of severe storms is in far southern IL south of I-64.
Temperatures expected to cool back to seasonable levels this weekend
as high pressure settles into IL Saturday evening and into the Ohio
river valley on Sunday. Highs Saturday in the mid 50s central IL and
upper 50s southeast IL. A weakening upper level trof moves into IL
Saturday afternoon with some increase in clouds, but should stay
dry. These clouds clear out early Saturday evening and winds become
light as high pressure settles in. This to likely bring frost
overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning with lows in the
low to mid 30s. Sunny skies and light winds Sunday with seasonably
cool highs in the mid 50s, with some lower 50s from I-74 northeast.
Another chilly night Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Extended forecast models continue to show a strong upper level trof
digging south along the west coast while upper level ridging into
the Eastern States and puts IL back in an unsettled sw upper level
flow. Think most of central/se IL will stay dry on Monday as high
pressure drifts east off the mid Altantic coast while weakening
surface low pressure tracks ne into northern MN. Isolated light rain
showers could affect the IL river valley Monday afternoon as skies
become partly sunny.
Increasing chances of showers from Monday night through Wed as a few
short wave ejects ne toward IL and also have deepening surface low
pressure moving into the Central Plains by dawn Wednesday and
tracking into the upper MS river valley and western Great Lakes Wed
night and Thu. Best chances of showers for central IL appears to be
Wed and Wed night and could also be isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures to modify during 1st half of next week with highs in
the mid to upper 50s Monday and lower to middle 60s by next Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
Areas of VLIFR vsbys are expected thru about 15z with IFR cigs
possible into the early afternoon hours. Lower vsbys much more
variable across the area than what we saw yesterday at this
time. However, short term models continue to suggest the threat
will continue over the area, especially in locations that were
currently and have been down to less than 1 mile. The threat
for the low vsbys will gradually end by 15 or 16z with more of
a stratus layer prevailing into the afternoon hours with only
a gradual increase in cig bases expected. If we can scatter
out for a time later this afternoon, there will be another
threat for some patchy dense (IFR or lower conditions) tonight.
Southerly winds are expected again today and tonight at around
10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
231 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
INTENSE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...SPILLING OVER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR
IS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS CARIBOU LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND THE FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FOG TOWARDS
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...FIRST
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO
LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR AND MACHIAS. TEMPERATURES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
WILL ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...BUT BANGOR WILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CWA WL SEE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERNEST AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM. DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE THRU THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
CREEP UP INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AS WMFNT LIFTS THRU. THIS WL LKLY
RESULT IN NRLY STEADY TEMPS DRG THE OVRNGT HRS, IF NOT WARMING
SLIGHTLY. MINS WL LKLY BE REACHED DRG THE EVNG. INITIALLY ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS MOST OF
CWA THRU BULK OF THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A H7 WV ROTATES THRU
CENTER SXNS ARND 06Z LEADING TO SCTD SHOWERS AS OMEGA INCREASES. AS
WV SCOOTS OFF INTO CANADA EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL AS FOG TO BE
PRESENT ACRS CWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FOG EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE MID-MRNG HRS ON FRIDAY BFR WINDS PICK
UP AS STRONG SFC LOW DEEPENS IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND SHUD ONLY RESULT IN SCTD SHOWERS BY AFTN AND CONTG INTO THE EVNG
AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ROTATES THRU ERN CANADA. AFT A WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF WMFNT LIFTING THRU, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO NR
NORMAL SAT AFTN WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY AND
COOLER END TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S
DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING TO
OUR NORTHWEST MAY BRING A BREEZY OCCLUSION THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
DEVIATION MIGHT BE TOWARDS CAR AND FVE BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG FORMATION TOWARDS BGR AND BHB BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THESE SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR AND IFR IN DRIZZLE AND FOG TO START THE
SHORT TERM. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AS STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRIEF ROUND
OF MVFR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST EXCEPT SOME FOG
LATER THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SCA
THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED FRI AFTERNOON IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WITH GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY
12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM
IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR
PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE
INFLUENCE.
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT
SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE.
WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST
RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD
WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD
ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HIGH
PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DRIFTING INTO MN
ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH OVER THE W WILL CROSS
THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENS OVER
ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW WIND.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATE
THU NIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE STABILITY
DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AT 00Z FRI...A 995MB SFC LOW WILL BE W-NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY
12Z FRI WITH THE SFC LOW AT 985MB NEAR JAMES BAY (THE NAM 18Z/12 NAM
IS AN OUTLIER...BUT THIS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS). A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FRI...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -5C BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE W AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS E IN THE NW WINDS. LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI WILL SEE STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH IN AREAS EXPOSED TO W-NW WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE FALLING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC...WILL ALLOW FOR
PTYPE TO TRANSITION MORE TO SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE W HALF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AS GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WARMED BY LAKE
INFLUENCE.
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS SUN INTO TUE BEHIND A SFC RIDGE THAT
SHIFTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIP FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINK MOST PLACE WILL STAY DRY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 50 MON AND TUE.
WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS PERFORMANCE IS QUITE POOR. WILL JUST
RUN WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD
WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD
ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THRU TNGT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S
WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LO
PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROF
TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LO PRES CENTER
DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW
WIND. MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL AT LEAST
REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. OPTED TO ISSUE A
GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W LAKE DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS ON FRI. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AHEAD OF A TROUGH/FRONT FROM NW MN TO CNTRL
NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S HAS SUSTAINED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE KEWEENAW WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OR
THICKEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
TOWARD WRN MN WILL BRING PCPN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S COULD
BRING SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE WEST HALF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD ALSO LINGER DONWSTREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY MAY BE HELD TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE CENTER ON POPS
ON THU/FRI ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF. GUSTY NW
WINDS ON THE SW FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LO PRES MAY
THEN BRING IN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR TO GENERATE SOME LK EFFECT PCPN
LATER FRI AND SAT BEFORE TRAILING HI PRES BRINGS DRIER WX TO END THE
WEEKEND.
THU INTO FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS THERE WL BE TWO SHRTWVS
OF INTEREST LIFTING NE OUT OF THE WRN TROF DURING THIS TIME. SINCE
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT DISTURBANCES...A DEEPER LO PRES WL NOT DVLP
UNTIL THESE SHRTWVS BEGIN TO PHASE ON FRI IN ONTARIO. WAVE OF LO
PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO RIDE NE ALONG
STNRY FNT STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO INTO MN ON THU...WITH BULK OF
ACCOMPANYING PCPN PASSING TO THE W OF UPR MI UNDER SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC. WL THUS CARRY HIER CHC POPS OVER THE FAR W. TEMPTED TO
KEEP THE E HALF COMPLETELY DRY ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES WITH SHALLOW MSTR ADVECTED TO THE N IN STEADY SSW
FLOW WARRANTS SOME SCHC POPS IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS A MENTION OF
SOME FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG OVER THE ERN CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI.
DESPITE PLENTY OF LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED AS HI AS 12-14C. A BETTER CHC
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WL ARRIVE ON THU NGT IN ADVANCE OF SECOND
DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE SW. MOST OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THIS
AREA OF FORCING ALMOST COMPLETELY MISSING THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME SE. WL TEND TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z GFS/CNDN/ECMWF
AND PAINT THE HIER LIKELY/CATEGORICL POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
UNDER THE SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVG/CORE OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV/AXIS OF PWAT UP TO 1.25
INCHES. WITH AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN AS WELL ACCOMPANYING SHIFTING SFC
FNT ACRS THE AREA...SUSPECT RA TOTALS UP TO AN INCH WL BE PSBL OVER
THE E HALF OF THE FA. SINCE THE GFS SHOWS SSI DROPPING TO ARND -1C
OR SO OVER AXIS OF HIER PWAT AND UNDER SHARPER FORCING...ADDED A
MENTION OF SCHC THUNDER. WSHFT TO WNW OVERNGT BEHIND THE FROPA/SFC LO
SHIFTING INTO NW ONTARIO WL ALSO DRIVE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT
DEEPER MSTR SHOULD EXIT BEFORE RA CAN CHANGE TO SN. STRONG CYC WNW
FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 35-40 KTS...WL SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING LK EFFECT TYPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF...WHERE THIS FLOW UPSLOPES...AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -5C.
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE INCOMING LLVL AIRMASS WL BE ALSO DRIER...AS
FCST SDNGS HINT AT A BIT OF AN INVERTED V SFC TO H9-85 T/TD PROFILE.
WHILE THIS DRYING THAT WL LOWER NEAR SFC WBLB TEMP COULD SUPPORT A
MIX WITH SOME SN OVER AT LEAST THE HIER TERRAIN...WOULD ALSO EXPECT
MORE LIMITED POPS/QPF UNDER SOME PRONOUNCED DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV.
FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALF/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING...SOME ASSOCIATED DEEPER MSTR
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -8C WL SUPPORT LINGERING LK EFFECT
TYPE RA/SN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON FRI NGT/SAT IN AREAS FAVORED BY
THE FCST WNW WINDS. ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/LOWERING INVRN BASE TOWARD 3K
FT AGL DURING SAT NGT WL BRING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THIS PCPN.
EXTENDED...THE HI PRES MOVING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WL BRING DRY
WX TO THE UPR LKS ON SUN AND MON. STEADY WSW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK
OF THIS HI WL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA...WITH H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO ARND 5C ON MON. SOME RA MAY RETURN NEXT TUE ALONG A LO
PRES TROF EXTENDING NE INTO THE UPR LKS FM A LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS
GREATEST. LOWER END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD
WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SIMILARLY...CIGS SHOULD
ALSO LOWER AT CMX BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE W HALF OF LK SUP THRU TNGT AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING S
WIND TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING E THRU SE CANADA AND A LO
PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO MN ADVECTS MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE TROF
TO THE W WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THU NIGHT AS A LO PRES CENTER
DEEPENS OVER ONTARIO... BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WNW
WIND. MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL AT LEAST
REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AS THE STABILITY DECREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. OPTED TO ISSUE A
GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W LAKE DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS ON FRI. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY SLACKENS TO THE NE OF HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. BUT W BACKING SW WINDS UP TO
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ246>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>245-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY...AND ALSO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING STEADILY. AS WE
COOL TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW BY 06Z
WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR RUC SHOWS THIS TREND.
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND THAT COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS WE MAY SETTLE IN ON A MAINLY STRATUS DECK. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
UPSTREAM TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE
DAY. SO I WILL KEEP THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS GOING.
DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE TRACKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY 08Z
TO 12Z. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER GUSTS. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC LOOKS
GOOD.
I ENDED UP ADDING A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE THU
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE IS WEAK WAVE LIFTING OUT OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS MOISTEN UP THE DGZ AND SHOW LIFT AROUND 21Z. MOST MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
FALL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE LONG TERM PACKAGE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FAR DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S
NORTH OF THE GR METRO AREA WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE. THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME...GFS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT
QUICKLY ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WHILE THE ECM IS LARGELY DRY..
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND EAST OF LUDINGTON EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MEASUREABLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE THEME GOING
INTO MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WE
SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO SOME CLOUD COVER BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AROUND VETERANS DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXIST FURTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM ROUND BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECM AND GFS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM AND
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECM ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERALL...RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE LOW STRATUS DECK AND
EXTENT OF THE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC THIS MORNING...LEADING ME TO WONDER HOW THICK THE FOG
MAY ACTUALLY BE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER HIGH THAT IFR
AND A FEW LIFR CIGS WILL RESULT...AS WIND FORECASTS OF 5+ KTS MAKE
DENSER FOG A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE. CURRENTLY STICKING WITH IFR
VSBY AT THE MOMENT. AS THE MOISTURE IS THERE...WE MAY NEED TO
REASSESS THE SITUATION IN THE 00Z UPDATE. ASIDE FROM THE CIGS AND
VSBY CONCERNS...GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE ARE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY HINDER KMKG
FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS
FURTHER INLAND. INLAND CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GALES. WILL NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT KEEP THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015
AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE SLIGHTLY AFTER LAST WEEK/S RAIN.
THE SLOW FALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR JACKSON TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR LUDINGTON IS POSSIBLE WITH MANY
AREAS RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVERS TO INCH BACK UP...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...04
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1134 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS THREAT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EXPAND A BIT WEST. FARTHER
SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...MORE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH IN STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH IN
THIS REGION AND STILL EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO LIGHT AND EXPAND NORTH
OVER IOWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MN
BEFORE 12Z. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MORE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE
AFTER 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES IT WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN
MN AFTER 12Z...REMAIN SOUTH OF PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT
OF CLOUDS TODAY. STILL LOOKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE
60S..WITH PERHAPS A STRAY 70 TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S AT LEAST TO THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
SOME NEGATIVE BEST LI`S AND SOME MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MN PORTION OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
04.00Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A TINGE SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
A TAD WARMER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 60S
APPEARING COMMON...AS H85 TEMPS IN THE THERMAL RIDGE SNEAK INTO
THE LOWER TEENS /CELSIUS/ AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS YIELD
GENEROUS MIXING. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE RECORD-SHATTERING
WARMTH...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL GIVEN THE
PROGGED FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA RATHER SWIFTLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT BACK MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TOY WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE CLEARING WILL BE
REALIZED.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-FREEZING LOWS. SUNDAY TEMPS RECOVER A
BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MVFR
HOLDING ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED ON EARLY TAFS. ONLY AREAS TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND A BETTER CHC OF VFR CONDS IN
THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE KRWF/KEAU WHERE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED. ELSEWHERE...VERY LOW CHC OF GOING TO VFR THIS
AFTN...WITH SOME AREAS HOLDING ONTO IFR CONDS THRU 20-21Z. EVEN
AREAS THAT DO SEE VFR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LOW CLOUDS /MVFR
THEN IFR/ WILL LIKELY FORM AND SPREAD ACROSS MPX TAF AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED -DZ/DZ OVERNIGHT AS CIGS LOWER AND
-SHRA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE SOUTH/SE DIRECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTN...AND POSSIBLY HOLDING ON THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AND SCATTER
OUT LATER TODAY. THE BEST AREAS OF SEEING VFR CONDS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN WI BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN. THERE
MAYBE A FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING OF VFR
CONDS...BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO MVFR AND IFR
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTN...AND POSSIBLY HOLDING THRU THE EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT AREA AFT 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND W 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALLOWING CONTINUED
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
IOWA COUNTIES BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL
ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THIS EVENING TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE FRONT MAKES
LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS AND THETA-E AXIS
NOSES INTO THE CWA.
A PIECE OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THE
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z
RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SO HAVE LOWERED
QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. PCPN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO ERN NEB. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...QUITE LIKELY SCT -TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
A STALLED SFC BNDRY OVER NERN NEB SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY AT KOFK. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR THEN AT
ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE ON TRAVEL ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AND HIGHWAY 550 OVERNIGHT WITH
ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ABRUPT COOL-DOWN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1038 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INCHES CLOSER
TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK UP BY THE EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD IMPACT WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO
SUCH AS KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502>506-510>514.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INCHES CLOSER
TO THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK UP BY THE EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD IMPACT WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO
SUCH AS KGUP...KFMN...KE33...AND KLAM.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY TODAY...AND THE RGV BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED H7
TEMPS BY EARLY THURSDAY A BIT CHILLIER..WITH -8 TO -9C OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. MAY NEED TO ADD A FEW ZONES TO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY SUCH AS 504 OR 506 BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...IN
PART TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH THE MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THE
STORM SYSTEM. HRRR DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE RGV AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER ALONG THE AZ BORDER.
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULT BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
THAT SAID...A FEW SPOTS IN THE MIDDLE RGV MAY SEE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT...SUCH AS THE WEST MESA. DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE AND THREAT OF CONTINUING PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE MORE
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS WELL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MORESO ON THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR NORTH THE
EJECTING SYSTEM TRACKS.
MODELS CAN/T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST JUST YET...ECMWF
MORE BULLISH AND GFS HARDLY SPITS OUT 0.01 OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS A FLIP FLOP FROM YESTERDAY. POP GRIDS WERE THROTTLED BACK...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN ON SATURDAY FROM FRIDAY/S RECOVERY...DUE
TO A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DYNAMIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY OVER NM AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WORKS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ISOLATED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST...EVEN INTO SOME OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW WILL INITIALLY IMPACT
HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SHORT OF AVERAGE BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
MOST ZONES...BEING STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HIGH
PLAINS WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS...THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY...AND ALSO FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM WHILE COLDER AIR KEEPS SPILLING INTO THE STATE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CORE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING A COOL BRISK PATTERN GOING WITH PRECIPITATION
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WERE INCREASED SOME FOR THE
THURSDAY FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY...AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE AS
A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY...AND WILL HOVER CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
IT HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO THE PAST FEW SHIFTS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN APPEARS DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH LESS
WIND...BUT IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO IF/WHEN THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD REDEVELOP AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER VAST UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502-503-510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
356 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE 4KM NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST 04/18Z NAM12 IS IN LINE WITH THE
04/12Z GFS...INDICATING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z TOMORROW.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE/REINTENSIFY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT. THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS/STORMS. LOW-LEVEL TO 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...RESULTING IN MORE STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IF THERE
IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE WILL BE A NARROW REGION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AHEAD
OF CANADIAN FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WILD FIRE
CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
DIP INTO MID-30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...SO FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MAHALE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 73 47 64 / 40 50 10 0
HOBART OK 60 73 44 64 / 50 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 76 46 69 / 50 60 10 0
GAGE OK 54 71 37 64 / 40 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 73 43 64 / 30 50 10 0
DURANT OK 63 71 52 70 / 50 90 50 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1137 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
IN THE NEAR TERM...WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. CURRENTLY...STRATUS IS TRYING TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST
MO AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THE RUC IS TRYING TO PICK UP THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. THAT COULD BE FAIRLY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS STRATUS NORTHWARD. SO FOR CLOUD
COVER...DECREASED GREATLY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY...BUT
CONVERSELY RAISED CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS COULD
BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL THIS SAID...STILL ALSO HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM JUST
DUE TO VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...SUCH AS LIKE AT
HURON AND STORM LAKE. ESPECIALLY AT HURON WHERE THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG BEFORE
LONG IN PARTS OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES.
OTHERWISE ALL INDICATIONS...EXCEPT FROM THE NAM...ARE THAT ANY
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE DID NOT
BACK OFF ON THE HIGHS FOR TODAY VERY MUCH AT ALL AS THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID WARMUP AFTER ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF. DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.
TONIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRUDGE
EASTWARD...WITH THE CRUX OF THE TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO EASTERN MT BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS STRONG ALONG THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY
AVAILABLE. IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES...NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN HURON AND DE SMET...LOCATIONS ALONG THAT LINE
AND EASTWARD COULD SEE GENERAL THUNDER. NOTE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IS BEHIND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE...
AS THE FRONT IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH
850MB WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FOR LOWS...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 STILL LOOKING
PROBABLE NEAR CHAMBERLAIN...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
THE MOST INTERESTING TIME OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS
RIGHT AT THE START. MODELS APPEAR CLOSE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE
COMING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH POSITION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MILD
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON THINK THE SPC MARGINAL
RISK...WHICH OTHERWISE SEEMS REASONABLE...COULD ACTUALLY BE BACKED
UP A LITTLE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORNING INTERACTION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE IS A KEY...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PRETTY
STRONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SMALL HAIL BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION THE T-WORD BUT WHEN THERE IS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WE NEED TO BE READY. AGAIN...AGREE THAT THE RISK IS ONLY
MARGINAL...JUST SEEMS BIGGER WHEN IT IS NOVEMBER. IN ANY EVENT...POPS
WILL BE LEFT CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH SCATTERED
STORMS EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR FALLING THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR
PEAKING SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST WIT LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES N THE 30S NORTHWEST TO THE 40S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER MAY LINGER THURSDAY EVENING FAR EAST BUT SHOULD QUICKLY END.
AT THIS TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY
AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THOUGH IF THE WAVE SHARPENS ANY FROM CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS...A
FEW COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BUT NOT COLD. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S...AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND PRETTY CLEAR SKIES AS A RESULT. FREEZING OR A LITTLE
BELOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO WARMING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WENT
JUST A TAD ABOVE THE EXTENDED GRIDS WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL HEATING
FROM THE LOWERING NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF EVEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...JUST A LITTLE WARMER
STILL WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HIGHS. THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
PASS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW IT STILL
LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR AT ALL LEVELS. ACTUALLY LOADED OUR TEST NBM GRIDS
TO ACCOMPLISH THE SLIGHT WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMING...THEY
LOOK GOOD IN THIS CASE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THESE
DAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT WENT WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE GRIDS
UNDER THE PROSPECT OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGHS. SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AT THE END OR RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
AGAIN...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WITH STRATUS AND FOG
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA
TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT
MID-DAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET.
FURTHER WEST...THE PROGRESSION OF STRATUS AND COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWED DOWN IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS..BUT MAY OVERSPREAD KHON EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK INTO
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
LIFR TO VLIFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL ENVELOP THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALL TERMINALS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
TWO LONGWAVE FEATURES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHING EASTWARD
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS KEPT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL PUSH
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DUE TO THIS...EXPECT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE BUT IT APPEARS THE LIFT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS...CAUSING OVERCAST SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE DRY AIR WITH WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN IN THE
EVENING...A SQUALL LINE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDER. WINDS ARE STRONG THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SO
WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STORMS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
COULD BE STRONG...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. AFTER THIS
LINE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER DECREASING OVERNIGHT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVER NIGHT...SO DEPENDING ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN...COULD SEE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY
EVENING...COOLER AIR SHOULD ADVECT IN FOR TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP BEGINNING SUNDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND GRADUAL WARMING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 73 65 75 / 20 30 20 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 72 63 75 / 10 20 10 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 71 62 75 / 10 20 10 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 74 57 74 / 10 10 10 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE THAT IS MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF AT LOWER LEVELS AND PACIFIC AT UPPER LEVELS. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1.8-2.0 INCHES IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THESE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES...COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT IN FRONT...AND A
SOUTHERLY 25-35 KT LLJ...FIT THE MOLD FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS A
NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH LITTLE QPF ANYWHERE OVER OUR CWA...MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AFTER 12 AM
CST TONIGHT...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO LATCHING ONTO
THIS THREAT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION MOVING FURTHER EAST
AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER ON WHERE
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP AND TIMING. THUS...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL LAST WEEK WITH 9 PM CST TONIGHT AS THE START TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
THUS...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
1000-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT HELICITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOW.
THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IF ANY LEADING SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SHEAR VALUES TOMORROW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...SO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO LOW LCLS
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CAPE AND HELICITY VALUES. THE MAIN EVENT
THAT VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HITS UPON IS A SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPRAOCH THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
GREATER THREAT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO
BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
OR THAT MERGE WITH THE LINE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN SET FOR 9 AM FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRYING THINGS OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 79 61 71 56 / 60 70 80 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 79 62 72 57 / 50 70 80 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 57 72 55 / 60 80 80 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 79 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 59 71 55 / 60 80 80 30 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 62 72 60 / 70 70 80 30 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 63 73 59 / 50 70 80 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 65 75 61 / 20 50 80 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 63 72 60 / 60 70 80 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 64 73 61 / 60 60 80 40 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...
KERR...KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE
SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER
WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF
PROBABILITIES AREN`T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT
CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIIZZLE TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
COTNINEU TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA
THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS
SUPISIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE`VE
SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH
MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT
ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING
THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT
TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A
SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE
PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE LEAD TO A WIDE ARRAY OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS...BUT CONTINUED MOIST FLOW ATOP A PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MANY LOCATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 06-08Z...AFTER WHICH SOME DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN
THEIR SLOW EROSION.
OUTLOOK...
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERS STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD SW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
EAST COAST HIGH WILL KEEP THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT
MORE STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WHILE SOME OF
THE STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST HAS DIURNALLY DISSIPATED
EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
IN FACT KEEPING A CLOSE EYE VIA VSBL IMAGERY ON NW EXPANSION OF
LARGE STRATUS/FOG AREA OVER LAKE MI. ALSO SEEING MORE NARROW BAND
ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WHICH HAS NUDGED ONSHORE. OVER MUCH OF SRN WI
THE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION EVOLVING BUT NOT COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THERE ARE SOME DECENT WINDS OFF THE DECK AND
THIS SHOULD NEGATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS MAY RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG ON ADJACENT LAND AREAS THERE
HOWEVER TRAJ SUGGESTS ANY OF THIS FOG WOULD NOT MAKE A SIGGY INLAND
PUSH. OVERALL MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT HANGING
TO OUR WEST. 925 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TEMPS DEEP INTO THE 60S. WILL HAVE TO AGAIN CONTEND WITH SOME
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT GETTING CLOSER...BUT ANY SHRA CHANCES
CONFINED TO WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA
CONCEIVABLY COULD REACH 70 AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN
SEE. OVERALL UPTICK IN 700 MILLIBAR RH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE SOMEWHAT WARMER GFS MOS BUT IF WINDOW BETWEEN ANY
MORNING STRATUS AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS NARROWS THEN THE COOLER
NAM MOS TEMPS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
CAUSE COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...THIS IS WELL OVER 95TH
PERCENTILE. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS
CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TRAILING OFF AFTER 06Z AS STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST.
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM NEAR THE SFC UP TO 600H
SWEEPS THRU SRN WI AS LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-6.5 DEGREES WHILE ELEVATED CAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 500 J/KG JUST PRIOR TO STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. HENCE WL BEEF UP THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE AND ISOLD
OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DYNAMIC TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE T THREAT TO SCT.
MUCH COLDER AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. 925H
TEMPS TUMBLE 10C AND EXPECT FRI MAX T TO BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER.
WITH SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC...DRIER SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO LOW
LEVELS AND CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS FOR AT LEAST PART OF FRI. BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS WRN GTLAKES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF SLIDES TO THE EAST.
.EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...HIGH TRENDING TO MEDIUM.
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS BROADSCALE
UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER UPPER MIDWEST TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW CARRYING WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GTLAKES ON MON.
AT THIS TIME...COLUMN MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
PINCHED OFF DUE TO LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST AND
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME ADDED LIFT FROM INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE TIME. COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY LOW
POPS FOR NOW.
WARMER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO
RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AS UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF OVER WRN CONUS TO
WEAKEN SOME AS IT GETS NUDGED NORTHEAST BY EASTERN PACIFIC TROF
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CONUS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF WL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIKELY BRING BETTER
THREAT FOR SHRA TO SRN WI TUE NIGHT INTO WED NGT.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEASONAL NORMAL BY THE 12TH. GFS 5-DAY
500H PATTERN INDICATING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS SPREADING INTO
UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z/12 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL HAS SHOWN SOME
DIURNAL DISSIPATION BUT WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT
THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR MORE IFR STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE
WITH SOME IFR VSBYS AS WELL. WINDS OFF THE DECK SUGGEST WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT SOME PATCHY LWR VSBYS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING BACK INTO SRN WI. AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
DAYS AS BEING THE BEST WINDOW FOR RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...COOLER LAKE TEMPS INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN FOG OVER A PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WATCHING
TRENDS ON VSBL IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS/FOG AREA TRENDING NW AND
EXPANDING FROM MID LAKE WITH A MORE NARROW BAND NEAR THE SHORE. FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO HAVE
HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHER CONFIDENT SCA SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BETTER DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY LMZ643-644 UNTIL 18Z/THU.
$$
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...PC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
INCOMING STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.
WATER VAPOR REVEALING A DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WHILE A MAJOR UPSTREAM RIDGE WAS DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO CLEAR
OUT TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GENERAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL AID IN
MORE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT/CROSS SECTION RH FIELDS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER A RATHER
STRONG INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 850MB. WITH THIS PILING UP OF
MOISTURE/INCREASING STRATUS/LIFT UNDER THE INVERSION...THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI. TEMPERATURE-WISE...PLAN ON LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. NAM SHOWING 500-1000J/KG OF
MUCAPE WHILE GFS20 ONLY SHOWING 250-500J/KG. BELIEVE REALIZED CAPE
WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DESPITE AMPLE AVAILABLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT...BELIEVE
MINIMAL CAPE WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF ANYTHING SEVERE. BUT...WILL
MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON IT ANYWAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE MAINLY A
SEVERE WIND THREAT IF SOMETHING COULD GET GOING. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY THURSDAY WITH PRE-
FRONTAL HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S.
LOOK FOR THE FRONT AND SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY WITH COLDER/BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015
FRIDAY WILL BE A BRISK/COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
THEN LOWER 50S....WHICH REALLY...IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL ADD A NOVEMBER FEEL TO THE AIR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK QUIET AS UPPER/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATE THE REGION. AFTER A RATHER COOL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S...PLAN ON SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.
BY MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS
WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE
WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT
THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE
DRIZZLE FORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD A 1000MB LOW NEAR THE NEB/WY/CO BORDER WITH
A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MN. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE LOW/TROUGH WAS OVER MN/IA/MUCH OF WI. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
MN/IA EARLY THIS MORNING 10-15MPH G15-20MPH. WINDS ACROSS WI MORE IN
THE 5-10MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED
AND TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 07Z...MANY TEMPS REMAINED ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS DATE...THIS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY/SFC OBS DID SHOW AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS/BR/FG
LIFTING NORTH THRU IL/FAR EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
04.00Z MODELS FOR THE MOST PART INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. GFS WAS
ODDLY LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL WHERE THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAD PERSISTED ALL DAY. SOLUTIONS SIMILAR FOR TODAY AS
PIECES OF ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP
TROUGH/MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY 00Z. THIS WHILE
HGTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
AS ENERGY STARTS TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
HGTS START TO FALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND BY
12Z THU. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPS. WHERE LOWER LEVEL MODEL RH PROGS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM EASTERN NEB/
NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHWEST MN...SKIES ARE CLEAR. WHERE THERE ARE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF IL/NEARBY AREAS...MODELS SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON THE LOWER MOISTURE/RH SIGNAL. THIS AREA OF LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS UNDER WSR-88D VAD PROFILES SHOWING 925MB WINDS SOUTHWEST 30-
40KTS AT KDMX/KDVN/KARX. USED SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS THRU 09Z FOR
CLOUD COVER/FCST GRIDS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH LIKE
TUE...STRONGER SFC-850MB GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD MIX/ERODE ANY SHALLOW
CLOUD LAYER AFTER 15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS LOOKING TO SEE
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORING A FCST WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. IF SKIES WERE TO END UP SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
THRU THE DAY...MUCH LIKE TUE HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD STILL TOP
OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOW
MIXING TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH 30-35KTS IN THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE MIXED LAYER. A BREEZY/WINDY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH WINDS 15-
25MPH G25-35MPH. STRONGER OF THESE IN THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER.
STRONGER SIGNAL AMONG MODELS FOR THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC-
850MB...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS UNDER SOME BROAD 850-
700MB ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO WESTERN MN
BY 12Z THU. AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS LATER TONIGHT MAY YET NEED A
MENTION OF PATCHY DZ. WITH A LIMITED SIGNAL FOR THIS AMONG THE
MODELS LEFT TONIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. LEFT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
ON THE TIGHTER SIDE AS WELL TONIGHT...WITH SFC WINDS LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN THE 8-15KT RANGE THRU THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING...A MILD
NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS AT OR ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR NOV 5TH. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS THU/THU
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
04.00Z MODELS MAINTAIN A RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS AS THE ROCKIES
TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF
EARLIER MODELS WITH THE TROUGH AT 00Z FRI...WITH A BIT MORE POSITIVE
TILT/SHEARING OF THE LEAD ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH. FROM
THIS POINT...GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS ENERGY/TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE
QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. CONSENSUS NOW
INCLUDES SOME WEAK/TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRI...AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM/COLD CORE
TROUGHING TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THE RATHER
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THU THRU FRI NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
GOOD SIDE.
SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THRU 00Z FRI DELAYS
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER FORCING/LIFT WITH IT MORE INTO THE THU
AFTERNOON HOURS. PW VALUES STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1 INCH
RANGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-700MB TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WITH THE MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS/SHEARED
VORTICITY TRENDS WEAKER AS IT APPROACHES/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG STILL EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE SFC-850MB FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOWERED SHRA CHANCES THU MORNING...WITH INCREASING SHRA CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON...THEN 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES THU EVENING.
CONTINUED THE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER OVERALL FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN
PRECIP AS A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AMOUNT THU/THU NIGHT NOW LOOKING TO
BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...MORE IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH RANGE. SHARPER SFC-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE SPELLS A QUICKER
END TO THE PRECIP LATER THU NIGHT AND TRENDED RAIN CHANCES AFTER 09Z
TO 20-40 PERCENT MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/
COOLER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRI UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS BY FRI
AFTERNOON...925MB TEMPS ONLY LOOKING TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV. AFTER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...FRIDAY WILL FEEL COLD. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES FRI NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS LOOKING TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. MAY YET
NEED A SMALL SHRA/SHSN CHANCE FRI NIGHT WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE 850-700MB COLD POOL. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LIFT INDICATED AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT DRY.
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FRI
NIGHT TROUGH TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SAT MORNING...THEN
RISING HGTS/RIDING ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT
THRU SUN. IMPROVING SIGNAL/CONSISTENCY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PATTERN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AS IT COMES THRU THE ROCKIES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-
7 PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
COOLEST OF THE 925MB AIRMASS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SAT. SFC
RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLED THRU MUCH OF SAT NIGHT. SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUE TO
TREND AS THE COOLER PERIODS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE. TEMPS TREND
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN THRU TUE...MORE AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL
VS. 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IMPROVING SIGNAL
FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUN
NIGHT/MON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PROGS REMAIN SCANT WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SMALL CONSENSUS SHRA CHANCES MON INTO TUE OKAY
FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE AND ANY LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SAT-TUE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF A DRY/SUNNY TREND IS
MORE CORRECT FOR TUE THE CONSENSUS HIGHS ON DAY 7 MAY BE SOME 5F TOO
COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES
SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS
THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE
TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW
THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF
THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR
BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO
2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND
THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE DRIZZLE FORMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...STRATUS EROSION RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. RAP
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS SHOWING THE MIX OUT OF THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. MORE STRATUS ADVANCING NEWD FROM ERN IA AND WC IL SO
EXPECT THIS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS
BOTH SHOW THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL COMING
BACK INTO SRN WI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOLDING
OFF ON SHRA UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.
PC
&&
.MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGE FROM 08Z THIS MORNING SHOWED NEARSHORE
LAKE SFC WATERS HAVE COOLED MOSTLY INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH
OF OZAUKEE/MILWAUKEE COUNTY LINE...AND INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE NORTH.
THESE COOL LAKE TEMPS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH WARM SFC DEWPTS TO
CAUSE MORE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE DESPITE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THU AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AGAIN ON FRI.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE EJECTING
SOUTHWEST JET MAX IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SECOND
JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE 925/850 MB WINDS ARE WEAK TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT
INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE 0706Z VIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SHOWS THE STRATUS
DISTRIBUTION VERY WELL. DUE TO THE SHALLOW THICKNESS OF THE
STRATUS...THE CITY LIGHTS ARE SHINING THROUGH. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE.
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS SLOW...BUT IS EXPANDING. THE GOES CLOUD
THICKNESS ALSO SHOWS THE STRATUS VS FOG DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT
VERY WELL. WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE DENSE...IT APPEARS VISIBILITIES
IN MOST AREAS RISE A LITTLE AS THE STRATUS FORMS. THEREFORE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS MOMENT.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS
WILL SLOW WARMING.
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH...SO ANY LAKE
COOLING WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH INLAND. MORE STRATUS IS LIKELY
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
GFS IS NOW SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...SIMILAR TO THE NAM. ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO KEPT PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THUS...LOWERED GUSTS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW LEVELS IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A POTENT
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS IS STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE MODELS HINTING AT WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS PARTS
OF THE WEST AND SOUTH IN A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS WE CAN GET A FAST MOVING LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...THAT BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE INFORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HERE...AND IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING COLDER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION...ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA. KEPT MENTION OF MAINLY LOWER END POPS FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND QPF.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIFR CIGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE STRATUS
IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
MARINE...
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER VIRS DAY/NIGHT SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS OVER THE LAKE ATTM. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE STRATUS LAYER IS SHALLOW...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORE STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1008 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED. FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH EVEN WESTERN NEBRASKA SEEING SOME SNOWFALL
AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. NOTED
THAT THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE LLVL
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NE COLORADO ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS AS QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TREND HIGHER DUE TO POTENTIAL
HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOWLEVELS TO
LOWER BETWEEN 7000 TO 7500 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
TOWARDS 5500 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. SNOWLEVELS MAY DROP AS LOW AS
3500-4000 FEET ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY ON THE GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE NEEDED IS TO INCREASE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY SINCE THE LLVL WIND
DIRECTION IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AROUND THE
LARAMIE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON...WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A VIGOROUS/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN CO INTO CENTRAL
WY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD PER THE REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST TODAY
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 130-140
KNOT H25 JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN NE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 03Z THU. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL YIELD
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION BANDING. WE MAY SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF ONE INCH PER HOUR GIVEN NEGATIVE EPVS AND WEAK LLVL CAPE APPARENT
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL DYNAMIC/MESOSCALE
SETUP LENDS CREDENCE TO STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH FROM THE SUMMIT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WE CONTINUE TO
SEE BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HERE...SO NOW THE
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGH MTNS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WY. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AFTER 18Z BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THINK THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY 00Z ABOVE 7K FEET...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF OUR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE HERE...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO WITH RAIN/MELTING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL QUITE
TREACHEROUS. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE I-
80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WE ALSO ADDED THE CENTRAL
LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY MAY SEE
AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER AS WELL. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WERE PLACED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AS THE 06Z NAM STILL SUGGESTS SOME THREAT
FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IN CHEYENNE. DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS INTO
FAR EASTERN WY AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH. DO
NOT THINK AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY AS EVEN 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
DO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WELL BELOW FREEZING AT -5 TO -7C. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DEAL WITH MAINLY TEMPERATURES.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THINKING IS THAT BY NOON TIME...OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. 700MB WINDS BEGIN
PICKING UP THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. GFS 700MB
WINDS OF 45-50KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. LATEST WRKHGT
GUIDANCE SHOWING 850/700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS
INCREASING TO 40/45MTRS RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD HAVE SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS. DID NOT INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST YET...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOKS AFTER WE
SEE WHAT ACCUMULATIONS WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED/CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE. PROBABLY OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -12C ACROSS OUT
NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS.
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S EAST. DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO +4 TO +5C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA.
GETTING CLOSE TO ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT FOR SUNDAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB
HEIGHT GRADIENTS GETTING CLOSE TO 60MTRS SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE DO HAVE WIND HEADLINES OUT FOR THAT TIME.
BEGIN TO SEE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST OF
THE PRECIP THOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
CONDITIONS ARE COMING DOWN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT 11Z. HRRR PICKED THIS UP WELL AND SPREADS IT
SOUTH TO KAIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINK KCDR AND KAIA WILL STAY
DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME. COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS RAIN TURNS OVER TO SNOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ106-116-117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ107-110-115-118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH