Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/03/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE REGION TOMORROW...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY REBUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE STARTED INCREASING THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY SINCE SUNSET. WINDS AT EL
CENTRO/IMPERIAL ALREADY GUSTING TO 35KTS WITH SOME REPORTS OF BLOWING
DUST. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS TO THE NORTH BUT ARE STARTING TO
TURN AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH DUST ALREADY REPORTED ACROSS A HIGH-IMPACT
TRAVEL CORRIDOR...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE INTO SERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...WITH
A STEEPENED POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING GUSTY WEST
WINDS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH FROPA...THOUGH REMAINING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE COLORADO RIVER BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE DELINEATOR OF OUR CURRENT WARM
AIRMASS...AND A FAR COOLER AUTUMN AIRMASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
DESPITE STEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FROPA...ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT
ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE (ABOUT 8 G/KG) IN THE H8-H7 LAYER. IN
ADDITION...THIS FRONTAL RIBBON OF SATURATION WILL BE TOPPED BY A
WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND THE TEMPORAL DURATION OF FRONTALLY FORCED
ASCENT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT PUSH CLOUD DEPTHS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SHOWERS. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLD VERY LIGHT SHOWERS (SPRINKLES) AT LOWER ELEVATION...AND BETTER
CHANCES OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BY AND LARGE...THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING LIGHT RAIN
THROUGHOUT A GREATER PORTION OF CNTRL ARIZONA WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN COLD CORE AND PV ANOMALY TRAVERSES THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE H8-H7 MOISTURE VALUES WILL DECREASE CLOSER TO 4-
5G/KG...ADVECTION OF H7 TEMPERATURES NEAR -6C AND H5 TEMPERATURES
NEAR -21C JUXTAPOSED WITH BETTER CYCLONIC JET SUPPORT WILL AID IN
SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY TIED TO
DAYTIME HEATING). CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING (MUCAPES UP TO 100 J/KG)...THOUGH
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED
IN TIME AND SPACE. ALSO GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...NOT EVERY COMMUNITY WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL AND SREF
MEANS SUGGEST A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES (FROM 0.00 TO OVER
ONE HALF INCH). HAVE MADE SOME TARGETED INCREASES TO POPS BASED ON
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT DURING THIS WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RAPIDLY BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
STILL EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT
GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS
RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL RETAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT BUT QUICKLY TURN
AROUND OUT OF THE WEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...CIGS WILL
THICKEN AND LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 8-10KFT. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT AREAL COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG IN THE 12-15KFT RANGE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZE/BLOWING DUST ARE THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A RATHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25 TO 40 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL VERY
LIMITED (MOST TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS). FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN
THOUGH NOT YIELDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
PERIODICALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CONTINUES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. DRY WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER IN COASTAL AREAS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO STANDARD TIME BUT ARE
SIMILAR OVER MOST INLAND AREAS. OVERALL...WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING TODAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY 70S
WITHIN ABOUT 3-5 MILES THE COAST AND 80S TO LOCALLY NEAR 90 IN THE
VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND SOME FOG SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SO-CAL LATE
MONDAY...WITH PRECIP LIKELY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
ORANGE COUNTY AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE/SBD
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE EVENING...BASED
ON DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILES. THE MOISTURE STILL ONLY GOES UP
TO ABOUT 800 MB IN MOST AREAS...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THERE
COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN MODERATE RAIN.
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE 1/4 INCH OR LESS AT THE COAST...BUT 1/2 TO
LOCALLY ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL WRF SHOWING DECENT
PRECIP IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN THAT RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS THERE. COLDER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT AS 700 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5
C...BUT...THAT WILL BE MOSTLY AFTER THE BEST MOISTURE IS HERE...SO
SNOWFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE ABOUT 6000-
6500 FEET...PROBABLY ONLY 1-2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT DUE TO THE COLD CORE...BUT AGAIN THAT WILL BE AFTER MOST OF
THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. A PERIOD OF MODERATE STRONG WINDS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING MSLP/THERMAL/HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE...WILL OCCUR FROM THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS EAST/NORTHEAST TO THE
DESERT FOOTHILLS...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE LINGERING
TUE/WED...BUT PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT THEN AND MOSTLY IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DUE TO BEST OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES AND BEST TRACK
OF THE WAVES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE THE
LOWEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH A LOT OF 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 40 AT BIG BEAR EITHER TUE OR WED. SOME 30S
COULD OCCUR IN COLDEST VALLEYS...SUCH AS RAMONA OR CORONA...STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER WED...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND WE ENTER A PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME RIDGING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL
OCCUR...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT RIDGES. TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOTHING EXTREME. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR...BUT THERMAL SUPPORT
SO FAR LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAT LOCALLY GUSTY MODERATE WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS/COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...
011730Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH INLAND BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. CIGS MAY
INITIALLY BE RELATIVELY LOW...AROUND 400-700 FT MSL...WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 2 SM OR LESS POSSIBLE AT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. VIS
WILL FALL BELOW 1/2 SM AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES APPEARS
TO BE 06Z TO 10Z. BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12Z...WITH LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING 10-25 MILES INLAND BY 14Z MONDAY. BKN-OVC CIGS NEAR
2000 FT MSL WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER DESERT
SLOPES AFTER 10Z MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED A KPSP OR KTRM.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS..SKC-FEW WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
930 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING...AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
AND GUSTS TO 34 KT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FT AND STEEP WAVES WILL ALSO
CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED ACTIVITY OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
936 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet weather starts today as a Pacific storm system moves
inland. It will bring the first significant snow event of the
season to the high Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Overnight crew upgraded the winter storm watch to a warning early
this morning for 10 PM tonight thru 10 PM Monday for western slope
of the northern Sierra Nevada above 7000 feet. Prefrontal band of
precip dropping south across central portions of the area with
leading edge from around Blue Canyon SE to Santa Rosa. Most of
returns are elevated with only trace amounts to a few hundredths
being reported. Have adjusted POPs accordingly a little further
south this morning. Snow levels will hover around 9,000 feet for
majority of the day so most of precip will fall as rain today.
Rest of the forecast largely on track for tonight into Monday so
not expecting major changes this morning. Bulk of precip still
expected tonight into early Monday as main front moves through.
Previous discussion follows. Will have more detailed update this
afternoon. CEO
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Today, NorCal transitions to colder & wetter weather as a winter
storm moves inland and taps into the atmospheric river. Radar
imagery at 4 am showed a wide band of showers impacting the
Northern CA Coastal counties that is moving eastward and nearing
the Coastal range. Models all still on track with this system and
have not made any major changes to this storm`s forecast. Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect tonight through Monday night with
the brunt of the storm occurring Monday when snow levels will be
notably lower (between 5000-6000 ft). Snow amounts still look to
be 4-8 inches near pass levels with up to a foot across the
highest peaks. Earlier runs of the HRRR showed that rain wouldn`t
reach the Interstate 80 corridor until around 4 pm today. However,
the latest HRRR run indicates that a secondary band of rain could
track into the I-80 corridor by late morning while the main band
moves into far NorCal this morning. Will pass onto the day shift
to monitor the arrival timing this morning.
Daytime highs today will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for the
valley, 50s to mid 60s in higher terrain. Colder airmass expected
after midnight tonight so much of today`s precipitaton will fall
as rain.
Snow levels will start around 9000 feet, then dropping down to
around 5000 feet on Monday. The major question is when the snow
levels will drop to 7500 feet, around the Donner Pass level on I80
and Echo Summit on Highway 50. If it takes until daybreak Monday,
much of the precipitation may end up in the form of rain in those
areas. High mountain peaks will likely see a foot or even more of
snow. The peak snow intensity is expected Monday morning. More
showery precipitation is expected by afternoon, with the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms. Snow showers may drop to around 5000
feet, though accumulations to those levels are expected to be
light. Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday into
early Wednesday.
A major concern is recently burned areas (past 3 years),
especially on the west slope of the northern Sierra Nevada
Mountains, such as the Butte Fire. The main band of precipitation
could drop 1 to 3 inches on these locations. Thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon could add additional locally heavy
rain to this, though when and where these could be remains
uncertain. People living and working in those areas should be
aware of the potential for debris slides on Monday. Stayed tuned
for updates to the forecast.
Valley locations could see around 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain,
potentially more in convection. Drivers on Monday should be aware
of slick roads, especially if wet leaves are in the area.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Dry conditions are expected from Thursday through the end of the
week with high pressure ridging over the southwest U.S. A
shortwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest to the
north on Thursday will keep high temperatures down to just a
little below normal. Upper ridge then amplifies along the west
coast Friday and Saturday warming daytime highs to a little above
normal. Extended models showing possible break down of the upper
ridge by the end of the extended period as next upper trough is
forecast to start pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Northern
forecast area could see some precipitation by next Sunday while
the rest of the forecast area remains dry with near normal daytime
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
Frontal band sagging southward into Norcal this morning. VFR Tafs
sites this morning becoming MVFR northern Sacramento valley after
18z and then MVFR southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin
after about 21z under clouds and occasional showers. Southerly
winds to 15 knots except higher over Sierra ridges.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Monday
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
510 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH BAY LATER TODAY THAT WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:49 AM PST SUNDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT VALUES BETWEEN
1.20" TO 1.60" ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INITIAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SPEED UP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE BAY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA EARLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AS MUCH AS 1.00" OVER THE COASTAL
RANGES.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. IN
ADDITION...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS INLAND LATE MONDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. LOCALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AS A MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE COLDER AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FALL
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING OTHERWISE
METAR OBS REPORTING VFR. INITIAL MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING S-SE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOLING
EVIDENT ON THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER AND HINTS OF COOLING SHOWING UP
ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER. 12Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION
THAT`S MORE ELEVATED.
MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL SWEEP S-SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS
BUT A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH WIND THE TERMINALS WILL
HAVE. WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS THE CLOSER WE
GET TO THE WET/WINDY WEATHER. BASED ON RECENT GFS MODEL FORECAST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS BY 06Z SUNDAY NORTH BAY THEN REACHING A
KSJC-KLVK-KSAC LINE 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. VFR. MVFR CIGS WET WEATHER ARRIVE
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
APPROX 03Z THIS EVENING WITH GRADUALLY STEADIER RAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOCALIZED IFR DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THIS
MORNING. GENERAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z TODAY. MVFR
CIGS AS WELL AS SHOWERS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:49 AM PST SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PICK UP IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST REACHING THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
446 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet weather starts today as a Pacific storm system moves
inland. It will bring the first significant snow event of the
season to the high Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today, NorCal transitions to colder & wetter weather as a winter
storm moves inland and taps into the atmospheric river. Radar
imagery at 4 am showed a wide band of showers impacting the
Northern CA Coastal counties that is moving eastward and nearing
the Coastal range. Models all still on track with this system and
have not made any major changes to this storm`s forecast. Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect tonight through Monday night with
the brunt of the storm occurring Monday when snow levels will be
notably lower (between 5000-6000 ft). Snow amounts still look to
be 4-8 inches near pass levels with up to a foot across the
highest peaks. Earlier runs of the HRRR showed that rain wouldn`t
reach the Interstate 80 corridor until around 4 pm today. However,
the latest HRRR run indicates that a secondary band of rain could
track into the I-80 corridor by late morning while the main band
moves into far NorCal this morning. Will pass onto the day shift
to monitor the arrival timing this morning.
Daytime highs today will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for the
valley, 50s to mid 60s in higher terrain. Colder airmass expected
after midnight tonight so much of today`s precipitaton will fall
as rain.
.Previous Discussion...Snow levels will start around 9000 feet,
then dropping down to around 5000 feet on Monday. The major question
is when the snow levels will drop to 7500 feet, around the Donner
Pass level on I80 and Echo Summit on Highway 50. If it takes until
daybreak Monday, much of the precipitation may end up in the form
of rain in those areas. High mountain peaks will likely see a foot
or even more of snow. The peak snow intensity is expected Monday
morning. More showery precipitation is expected by afternoon, with
the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Snow showers may drop
to around 5000 feet, though accumulations to those levels are
expected to be light. Showers may linger over the mountains
through Tuesday into early Wednesday.
A major concern is recently burned areas (past 3 years),
especially on the west slope of the northern Sierra Nevada
Mountains, such as the Butte Fire. The main band of precipitation
could drop 1 to 3 inches on these locations. Thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon could add additional locally heavy
rain to this, though when and where these could be remains
uncertain. People living and working in those areas should be
aware of the potential for debris slides on Monday. Stayed tuned
for updates to the forecast.
Valley locations could see around 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain,
potentially more in convection. Drivers on Monday should be aware
of slick roads, especially if wet leaves are in the area.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Dry conditions are expected from Thursday through the end of the
week with high pressure ridging over the southwest U.S. A
shortwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest to the
north on Thursday will keep high temperatures down to just a
little below normal. Upper ridge then amplifies along the west
coast Friday and Saturday warming daytime highs to a little above
normal. Extended models showing possible break down of the upper
ridge by the end of the extended period as next upper trough is
forecast to start pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Northern
forecast area could see some precipitation by next Sunday while
the rest of the forecast area remains dry with near normal daytime
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
Frontal band sagging southward into Norcal this morning. VFR Tafs
sites this morning becoming MVFR northern Sacramento valley after
18z and then MVFR southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin
after about 21z under clouds and occasional showers. Southerly
winds to 15 knots except higher over Sierra ridges.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.AVIATION...
E TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A W TO SW GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT APF. SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST POSSIBLY, BUT NOT NEEDED IN THE APF
TAF. LIKE THIS MORNING, BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAWN
MONDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015/
UPDATE...
HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG
THE GULF BREEZE LATER TODAY. THE HRRR AND GFS WERE TOO WIDESPREAD
WITH QPF YESTERDAY, SO CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD HANDLE WHAT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST SUN NOV 1/
AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT
ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA
MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST
PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 87 77 86 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 77 88 76 87 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 74 89 73 88 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
846 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG
THE GULF BREEZE LATER TODAY. THE HRRR AND GFS WERE TOO WIDESPREAD
WITH QPF YESTERDAY, SO CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD HANDLE WHAT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST SUN NOV 1/
AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT
ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA
MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST
PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 77 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 87 77 88 76 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
634 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT
ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA
MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST
PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 77 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 87 77 88 76 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
336 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
WEATHER FORCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA
&&
.AVIATION...
FROM 06Z ISSUANCE...
SFC AND LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS FOR A BRIEF BKN CEILING AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS, BUT ALL IN ALL A DRY FORECAST WITH PREVAILING VFR. SW SEA
BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN AT NAPLES/KAPF AROUND 18Z. /MOLLEDA
&&
.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST PEAKING IN THE
12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 77 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 87 77 88 76 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Already updated forecast for rest of the night. Dense fog and very
low clouds are advecting into the area from the south, spreading
north/west and east some. Based on HiRes models this will continue
to spread out across most of central and east central...and
southeast Illinois rest of the night and into tomorrow
morning...during the morning commute. Advisory does not include
PIA or BMI, or northern areas of central IL, but will be closely
monitoring the area as it spreads north to see how north it could
get. HiRes models suggest it will cover all of the CWA, but unsure
at this time. If confidence increases, then another update and an
addition to the advisory will be needed at some point.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but
flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z
ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog
dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear
under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the
Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of
moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been
how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints
and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been
very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover
development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is
being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not
mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints,
the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is
further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for
tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up
on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest.
Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night
progresses with observation of the crossover drop.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends,
followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated
precipitation.
Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as
the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected
track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it
to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to
break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low
level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as
moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into
mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday
night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly
to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear.
Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to
categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as
dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe
probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage.
The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana
border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by
about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more
toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our
area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to
be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above
normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1
inch of rain in most areas.
Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but
significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break
up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon.
Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on
Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this
week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through
Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday
and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though,
so a slow warming trend is expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Lots of dense fog and stratus blanketed southern IL last night and
believe that will be the case again tonight, but further north,
effecting all the TAF sites. Stratus in southern IL is forecast by
multiple models to advect northward into the area and blanket all
TAF sites this evening to overnight. Main question is how low will
the vis go and what the timing will be. Thinking is that stratus
will advect northward and effect SPI, then DEC, then PIA and CMI,
then BMI last...thinking that the stratus will move north and then
expand some to the west and east through the evening. Main
question is vis. Winds will be very light again tonight, to even
with cloud cover, believe dense fog will likely at SPI/DEC/CMI and
then close at PIA and BMI. Timing for the dense fog should hold
off til after midnight at all sites, but will monitor over next
couple of hours to see timing and extent.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ040>044-
047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
543 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but
flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z
ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog
dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear
under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the
Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of
moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been
how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints
and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been
very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover
development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is
being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not
mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints,
the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is
further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for
tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up
on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest.
Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night
progresses with observation of the crossover drop.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends,
followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated
precipitation.
Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as
the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected
track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it
to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to
break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low
level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as
moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into
mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday
night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly
to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear.
Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to
categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as
dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe
probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage.
The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana
border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by
about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more
toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our
area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to
be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above
normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1
inch of rain in most areas.
Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but
significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break
up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon.
Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on
Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this
week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through
Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday
and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though,
so a slow warming trend is expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Lots of dense fog and stratus blanketed southern IL last night and
believe that will be the case again tonight, but further north,
effecting all the TAF sites. Stratus in southern IL is forecast by
multiple models to advect northward into the area and blanket all
TAF sites this evening to overnight. Main question is how low will
the vis go and what the timing will be. Thinking is that stratus
will advect northward and effect SPI, then DEC, then PIA and CMI,
then BMI last...thinking that the stratus will move north and then
expand some to the west and east through the evening. Main
question is vis. Winds will be very light again tonight, to even
with cloud cover, believe dense fog will likely at SPI/DEC/CMI and
then close at PIA and BMI. Timing for the dense fog should hold
off til after midnight at all sites, but will monitor over next
couple of hours to see timing and extent.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the
upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are
approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave
across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix
out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s
across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out
from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue
over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due
to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several
hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge
axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows
some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement
all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some
better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out
this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog
mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of
I-70 to address this concern.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states
Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL
forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to
central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low
70s and light southerly winds.
By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep
trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low
level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the
development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have
increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will
continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low
cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low
70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday.
Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the
Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in
the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for
a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest
model trends
Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure
settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This
should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and
high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential
fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight and
moving northward. Not very confident with this and sunshine today
should have mixed out the moisture from the recent rain, so will
continue to hold off mentioning of this and take a closer look
before next package. Winds should be southerly to southwesterly
through the forecast period with speeds around 10kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the
upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are
approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave
across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix
out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s
across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out
from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue
over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due
to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several
hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge
axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows
some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement
all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some
better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out
this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog
mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of
I-70 to address this concern.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states
Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL
forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to
central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low
70s and light southerly winds.
By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep
trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low
level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the
development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have
increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will
continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low
cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low
70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday.
Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the
Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in
the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for
a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest
model trends
Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure
settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This
should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and
high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential
fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight. Could
be something to watch in case it oozes northward into central
Illinois, but abundant sunshine today should help mix out the
moisture from the recent rain, so will hold off on any mention
this far north for now.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Earlier fog has rapidly eroded over the last 1-2 hours, and the
lingering fog along I-70 has been coming up recently as well. That
area is along the fringe of the cirrus shield associated with the
southern stream shortwave, and that area should remain partly
sunny through the afternoon as clouds continue to stream
northeast. The remainder of the forecast area will be mainly
sunny, with a bit of increase in cirrus late from the northwest.
Updated forecast was sent mainly to address the end of the fog.
Hourly temperatures were adjusted as well, but the overall high
was generally on track with highs 65-70, warmest toward
Jacksonville.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.
What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of SW MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.
Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECMWF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.
Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and
high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential
fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight. Could
be something to watch in case it oozes northward into central
Illinois, but abundant sunshine today should help mix out the
moisture from the recent rain, so will hold off on any mention
this far north for now.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
926 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Earlier fog has rapidly eroded over the last 1-2 hours, and the
lingering fog along I-70 has been coming up recently as well. That
area is along the fringe of the cirrus shield associated with the
southern stream shortwave, and that area should remain partly
sunny through the afternoon as clouds continue to stream
northeast. The remainder of the forecast area will be mainly
sunny, with a bit of increase in cirrus late from the northwest.
Updated forecast was sent mainly to address the end of the fog.
Hourly temperatures were adjusted as well, but the overall high
was generally on track with highs 65-70, warmest toward
Jacksonville.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.
What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of SW MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.
Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECMWF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.
Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Areas of LIFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible through
14z, especially along the I-74 corridor sites. The combination
of abundant low level moisture from yesterday`s rainfall and
a clear sky has led to some patchy dense fog at PIA and BMI
with a further expansion east and south possible over the
next few hours. Any fog should quickly dissipate between 14
and 15z as drier air advects into the region. Once that
occurs, we expect VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast
period. Surface flow will be out of the southwest at 9 to 14 kts
today with winds expected to back more into a south direction
this evening with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
514 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.
What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of sw MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.
Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECWMF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.
Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Areas of LIFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible through
14z, especially along the I-74 corridor sites. The combination
of abundant low level moisture from yesterday`s rainfall and
a clear sky has led to some patchy dense fog at PIA and BMI
with a further expansion east and south possible over the
next few hours. Any fog should quickly disspate between 14
and 15z as drier air advects into the region. Once that
occurs, we expect VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast
period. Surface flow will be out of the southwest at 9 to 14 kts
today with winds expected to back more into a south direction
this evening with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.
What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of sw MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.
Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECWMF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.
Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Lower clouds continue to move across the area and should be east
of all TAF sites by 09z. Thinking is that PIA will just have
cirrus to start, SPI/BMI will see lower MVFR clouds around 1.8kft
for about an hour and then just cirrus, DEC through about 08z and
then CMI til about 09z. With all the lower level moisture around
from the rain today, believe once clouds clear, light fog is
possible at all sites. At PIA/SPI/BMI, will have the light fog in
the main body of the TAFs. At DEC and CMI, will just have TEMPO
group. With wind speeds just under 10kts, think fog will be patchy
as well, so only going with 3sm at all sites. Skies should also
become clear toward morning and last through tomorrow and into the
evening. Light fog should dissipate around 15-16z at all sites.
Winds will be less than 10kts through the TAF period and remain
westerly to southwesterly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Rain is quickly moving east and based on radar and observations,
rain is only in extreme eastern and southeast IL but will be gone
in next couple of hours. Small break in the clouds underneath the
higher stuff will effect the area temporarily but clouds should
remain over western parts of the area til just after midnight,
then over the eastern half of the area through early morning.
Believe light fog is also possible with where areas see some
clearing, but winds will remain just below 10mph so fog should
remain light. Will be making some adjustments to pops/wx in the
forecast and be sending out an update shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Main shortwave was moving across southeast Iowa and northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Convection over the lower Mississippi
Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting
in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last
few hours. Back edge of the rain shield now generally along the
Illinois River, and the short-range models have been fairly
consistent with drying out most areas west of I-55 by sunset and the
eastern CWA by 10 pm. Refinements in the hourly precipitation grids
have taken this into account, and have gone with a dry forecast
after midnight.
Some concern remains with the fog potential. Latest RAP and HRRR
continues to advertise a moist layer of about 1,000 feet off the
surface underneath an inversion, and shows a rather expansive area
of dense fog mainly along and west of the Illinois River, where
rainfall from the current system has been in the 1/2 to 1 inch
range. The RAP humidity plots seem to be running a bit fast with the
clearing, as the AWIPS timing tool has the clearing line coming into
the western CWA toward 11 pm or so. If the winds stay up a bit, this
could keep the fog from getting out of hand, but have added a
mention of patchy fog for now west of I-55 after midnight. Evening
shift can make adjustments if it appears the clearing is coming in
faster than expected, which would increase the odds of fog
formation.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become
progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a
zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. The faster
departure of that low to the east will help usher in much drier air
aloft. Skies should become sunny across our entire forecast area on
Sunday, but some patchy morning fog could delay that for areas
northwest of the Illinois river. There is potential for locally
dense fog around sunrise, but winds could prevent that if they
remain up late tonight. Have included patchy fog early Sunday
morning for now, to trend that into the forecast.
Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will
not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer
air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid
to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties
toward Jacksonville.
A southern stream upper level low progressing from eastern Texas
toward Virginia on Monday will push a shield of precip close to
southern IL, but we expect to remain dry as the feature departs to
the East Coast Monday night. The overall result will be upper level
ridging developing across IL by late Monday afternoon, with
rising heights and warmer temps Monday. Highs should climb into
the lower 70s in most areas.
The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Tues and Wed
under a persistent SW flow aloft and southerly surface winds.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s both days.
The long wave trough in the western states will shift east over the
Rockies on Wed night, then eject a surface low toward Illinois on
Thursday. Rain chances will increase from west to east during the
day, with likely chances of rain Thursday night into Friday, as low
pressure and a cold front pass across Illinois. Showers could linger
Friday night behind the front, but most areas should return to dry
conditions for Saturday. Much cooler air will arrive behind that
system, with temperatures returning to near normal. Temps on Friday
will be steady or falling in the afternoon as NW winds crank up.
Despite increasing sunshine on Saturday, highs should remain in the
mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Lower clouds continue to move across the area and should be east
of all TAF sites by 09z. Thinking is that PIA will just have
cirrus to start, SPI/BMI will see lower MVFR clouds around 1.8kft
for about an hour and then just cirrus, DEC through about 08z and
then CMI til about 09z. With all the lower level moisture around
from the rain today, believe once clouds clear, light fog is
possible at all sites. At PIA/SPI/BMI, will have the light fog in
the main body of the TAFs. At DEC and CMI, will just have TEMPO
group. With wind speeds just under 10kts, think fog will be patchy
as well, so only going with 3sm at all sites. Skies should also
become clear toward morning and last through tomorrow and into the
evening. Light fog should dissipate around 15-16z at all sites.
Winds will be less than 10kts through the TAF period and remain
westerly to southwesterly.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.
STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.
WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THURSDAY WILL BE OUR LAST WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOST AREAS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE EURO INDICATES CAPES UP TO 400 J/KG. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY TOO...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING
AND THEN DRY AND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEW EURO INDICATES PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
LATE DAY 7. BUT OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS AND
KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY COOLING TO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS IN
THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING AND COOLING TO THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MAINLY VFR. BUT BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MAY KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT KBMG AND KHUF...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH UP TO 5 KNOTS MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.
STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.
WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MAINLY VFR. BUT BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MAY KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT KBMG AND KHUF...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH UP TO 5 KNOTS MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.
STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.
WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT THEN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SITES TODAY
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT KIND AND KBMG...COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF OFF AND ON MVFR STRATUS TO START OUT BUT
THEN EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z. AT KHUF AND
KLAF COULD SEE LOWER DROPS BEFORE DAYBREAK IF THEY CLEAR OUT BUT
THESE SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT LOOK FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
606 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.
STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.
WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 548 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT THEN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SITES TODAY
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT KIND AND KBMG...COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF OFF AND ON MVFR STRATUS TO START OUT BUT
THEN EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z. AT KHUF AND
KLAF COULD SEE LOWER DROPS BEFORE DAYBREAK IF THEY CLEAR OUT BUT
THESE SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT LOOK FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.
STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.
WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS 012-015...WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL EXIST
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST
FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING THESE
LOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT NEAR THAT TIME.
SURFACE WINDS 230-260 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.
STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.
WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST QUICK BUT WARM SW
FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT...WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING. MEANWHILE LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATE SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. SUPERBLEND BLEEDS LOW CHC POPS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE....HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUPERBLEND ALSO KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015
MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE PASSING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME.
MVFR CEILINGS 012-015...WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SO
EXPECTING THESE LOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT NEAR THAT TIME.
SURFACE WINDS 230-260 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT THE LOCAL AREA WAS
LODGED IN BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
AND UP THE OH RVR VALLEY...AND A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDULATING FROM ACRS NORTHERN
NEB...THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND OVER INTO NORTHEASTERN WI. DECENT
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FULL INSOLATION MAKING THE MOST OF HIGH
TEMP POSSIBILITY AND SFC WIND GUSTS WITH DEEP MIXING. ALOFT...THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WERE INDICATING
DIGGING WEST COAST L/W TROF HELPING ENHANCE BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO
THE EAST ACRS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TONIGHT...WHILE THE DVN CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MN/WEST WI...
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS IF SOME OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT
FORMED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF MO LAST NIGHT CAN SEEP FURTHER NORTH
IN ONGOING LLVL SOUTHERLIES AND MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM AND ARW ARE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT ARE ALSO OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RIGHT
NOW OVER CENTRAL MO ATTM. FEEL THAT BESIDES SOME UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED OCCASIONAL PASSING CIRRUS ACRS THE NORTH...MOST OF THE DVN
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY LOW CLOUD/FOG FREE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SOUTHERN NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND PATCHY FOG IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE AM. WITH THE SOUTH BREEZE
MAINTAINING AT LEAST 5 KTS AFTER DARK...WILL GO WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TUESDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUGGEST A WEAKER
MIXING DAY TUE THAN MON AND WARM WEDGE ALOFT REALLY ACTING LIKE A
CAP. WEAK MIXING UNDER CONTINUING BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MAY ALSO
ALLOW FOR HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THUS
DESPITE SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES...WILL PLAY IT MORE CONSERVATIVELY
AND GO WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. BUT IF THE LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO THE EXTENT PROJECTED AND HIGHER
MIXING/SFC WINDS OCCUR...COULD ALSO SEE THE SCENARIO OF WIDESPREAD
MID 70S AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN. WILL KEEP THE CLIMATE SECTION
WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD AND 4TH FOR REFERENCE. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN RAIN
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ROCKIES SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE MIDWEST IN
THE FORM OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITH STRONG FORCING. THE
GFS/ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM A BIT SO I HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN
THE EAST WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE IN THE WEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW (MORE CLOUDS) TO THE LOWER
70S SE (LESS CLOUDS). THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
50 KT LOW LEVEL JET PULLS PWAT`S OF OVER AN INCH INTO THE CWA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG BUT CAPES ARE MINIMAL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAIN ENDS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S NW.
THE RECENT WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL END ABRUPTLY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...IN THE 50S.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. BUILDINGS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP GRIDS DRY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD SMALL POPS IF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ..HAASE..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGE/CONCERN WITH 00Z TAFS.
KEEPING AN EYE ON AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG FROM AROUND THE ST LOUIS
METRO EAST AND SOUTH EARLY THIS EVE. 100-500M VWP WIND FIELDS
VEERED TO SSW DIRECTION CURRENTLY... AND GENERALLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN SO THUS BELIEVE WHILE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH THAT BASED ON
THIS WIND DIRECTION MUCH OF THE STRATUS WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN IL OVERNIGHT. RAP AND NAM MODELS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STRATUS MAY FORM OVER WESTERN MO OVERNIGHT AND
IF THIS DOES IT WOULD HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING SOME
OF TERMINALS BASED ON SSW WINDS. HOWEVER... RAP/NAM APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE ON MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE... TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH
FOR ANY MENTION... THUS HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS SHIFTS GENERALLY
VFR FORECAST FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND OB TRENDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3...
MOLINE.........77 IN 1938
CEDAR RAPIDS...75 IN 1964
DUBUQUE........73 IN 2008
BURLINGTON.....78 IN 1964
RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 4...
MOLINE.........77 IN 1978
CEDAR RAPIDS...73 IN 1978
DUBUQUE........72 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....76 IN 1978
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO
CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW
US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY
RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL
CITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE
DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15
PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF
OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS
FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE.
THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE
CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE
FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH.
THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM
HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS
AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO
KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO
THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO
PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO
THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK AS ZONAL FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
413 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO
CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW
US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY
RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL
CITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE
DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15
PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF
OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS
FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE.
THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE
CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE
FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH.
THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM
HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS
AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO
KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO
THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO
PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO
THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS MAY
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING...PARTICULARLY AT KMCK. GUSTS
18-22KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
154 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO
CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW
US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY
RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL
CITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE
DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15
PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF
OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS
FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE.
THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE
CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE
FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH.
THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM
HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS
AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO
KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO
THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO
PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO
THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS AROUND 7-8KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
17Z. FROM 18Z-22Z WINDS MAY GUST 15-20KTS FROM THE WEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST BEFORE BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REDUCING SPEED
A BIT AFTER 23Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
318 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE REGION WAS UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US CANADIAN
BORDER. A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A
CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN TX. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING BY IN SW FLOW ABOVE. THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS STILL
OCCURRING ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE THE PERIOD...THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ERODING ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO END THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A SFC
WAVE WILL TRACK BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL GET
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE NO
FURTHER NORTHWEST AND THE 12Z NAM SHARPENING UP THE GRADIENT ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ALTHOUGH THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING A BIT HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OPTED TO SHARPEN
UP THE GRADIENT IN POPS FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH LEFT THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...AND GENERALLY
KEPT THE I 64 CORRIDOR NORTH DRY. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD EXPERIENCE FOG
FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WE WILL BE LOCKED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE BY
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS QUICKLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WAITING TO BE ENERGIZED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PROLONG...OR REDEVELOP...RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
HANG ONTO A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS LED TO SOME SMALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SOUTHERN 4 TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR WAS OBSERVED FURTHER NORTHWEST AT SYM. OUTSIDE
OF SOME CHANCES FOR FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AT SYM...MAINLY VFR SHOULD
PERSIST. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS DRY OUT ALL BUT VERY NEAR THE SURFACE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...SO SOME DENSE FOG
OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. BY AROUND 15Z...CIGS SHOULD
AVERAGE MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.
For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.
For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.
The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.
Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf and a stubborn low-level
inversion is keeping IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings in place at BWG while
SDF/LEX lie on the fringe of this boundary and as of 17z, have begun
to lift/scatter out some. Very dry air is above this inversion, so
there is above average confidence that SDF/LEX will remain out of
the low clouds through the aftenoon.
Main concern is fog potential tonight as guidance trends toward a
narrow band of fog forming on the northern edge of the high cloud
shield. Where exactly this sets up remains uncertain though pretty
much all of the guidance hints at it. The boundary layer conditions
look favorable for fog as well, with light winds and plenty of
residual moisture in place. Trended the TAFs toward this scenario.
If it looks like the high clouds will be east of SDF/LEX overnight,
then IFR or worse conditions will be possible. At BWG, plan on low-
end or IFR conditions through the period, dropping to near LIFR
overnight as moisture continues to pool within the low-level
inversion.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
115 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. AN AREA OF DRIZZLE IS STILL INDICATED SOUTHEAST OF JKL
AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSED THE AREA LAST
NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE 60S IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHILE
LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE LINGER IN THE 50S. THE PREVIOUS MAX T OF
MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH AND LOW 60S GENERALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SFC LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE REGION...MAINLY NEARER TO THE VA BORDER TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY ON MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SOME DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING NEAR KJKL AND HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
NEAR LOST CREEK IN BREATHITT COUNTY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN RATHER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR THIS MOISTURE TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR IT TO OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING. CLOUDS PERSIST AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FURTHER LOWERING OF MAX T MAY BE
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LET THE GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY
RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS WELL...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THE DAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...THE
BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POISED TO EXIT ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A STILL LINGERING AND STRONG LL JET SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
UPSTREAM FOR TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW OVER TX BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE. QUITE SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING
FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGING THE DEFORMATION ZONE FAR INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY KEEPS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CONSENSUS
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BRING POPS BACK NORTH INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THERE IN LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE SHIELD OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT
DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
PRETTY EXTENSIVE ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND
RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS OFF
TO THE EAST...HAVE LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA PUTTING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A WAA SITUATION AGAIN AND AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS FOR MONDAY A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALL DEPICT AN OPENING
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THESE LATTER MODELS WAS
FAVORED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH...BUILDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS RIDGE THEN WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD KENTUCKY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST FASTEST IN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GFS
LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND UNLIKE THE MUCH SLOWER AND OUT OF SYNCH GEM.
THE GEM WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS A RESULT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS SERVICEABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
ACCORDINGLY...THE SYSTEM/S TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH WEAKENING ENERGY
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH BY THAT NIGHT AS HEIGHTS GENTLY
BOTTOM OUT BENEATH A FAIRLY FLAT TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE CR GRID
BLEND TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT PRETTY WELL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SHEARED OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SHOWERS
DRY UP. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WARM UP EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SHOULD ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP...
BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SOUTH
OF...KENTUCKY KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BULK OF
THE AREA TO STAY DRY.
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE POPS ON SATURDAY TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINATIVE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS LED TO SOME SMALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SOUTHERN 4 TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR WAS OBSERVED FURTHER NORTHWEST AT SYM. OUTSIDE
OF SOME CHANCES FOR FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AT SYM...MAINLY VFR SHOULD
PERSIST. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS DRY OUT ALL BUT VERY NEAR THE SURFACE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...SO SOME DENSE FOG
OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. BY AROUND 15Z...CIGS SHOULD
AVERAGE MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1217 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Forecast into the afternoon hours remains on track as moisture
trapped within a shallow but steep inversion is keeping low
clouds/stratus around. Morning fog has mostly burned off per latest
observations. 01.12z ILN sounding does show a significant dry air
layer just above the inversion...and cross sections and forecast
soundings from the HRRR and other hi-res models suggest we should
begin to erode that moisture layer by afternoon, mainly across
southern IN and northern KY though there will be plenty of high
clouds around to keep skies mostly cloudy. Southern KY will probably
stay in the low clouds through the day. Despite the clouds,
temperatures are climbing and are on track to reach the mid 60s.
Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Updated the grids to reflect the latest T/Td/Wind trends. Will leave
mention of an isolated rain shower or a few pockets of light drizzle
in for a couple hours across our east this morning as a some light
returns still show up on radar. Will also mention some patchy fog in
a few locations for a couple hours around dawn. Removed early
morning wording from the ZFP.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Steady rain has ended across the area, however patches of drizzle
and/or very light rain showers will persist through the pre-dawn
hours in some locations. Temps will generally stay in the low and
mid 50s under heavy cloud cover before sunrise.
It will dry out today, however we`ll stay under heavy cloud cover
over the southern two thirds of the CWA. The northern third has a
shot at seeing some sun and slightly warmer temps by afternoon. Have
gone with a fairly pessimistic temp forecast across south central KY
where the heavy cloud cover and lack of advection should keep the
mercury from wandering too far. Expecting low to mid 60s there, with
mid and upper 60s north. Did want to mention that we will hang onto
a very small chance of a measurable shower near the Lake Cumberland
region as that region could stay on the very northern fringes of a
precip shield extending from the western Gulf Coast system.
Chances for light rain across our SE CWA will increase tonight as a
better surge of moisture occurs with the southern system sliding
further east. Chances will then linger into Monday as the system
opens up and begins to eject east, bringing the deeper moisture
skirting mainly to our SE. Went with a mild temp forecast overnight
under expected cloud cover and a light NE wind. Looking for upper
40s north to mid 50s south. Highs Monday should top out in the low
70s north and the upper 60s south and east under heavier cloud cover
and a continued cool light NE surface flow.
Did want to mention that the NAM seems to be an outlier with a
further north progression of the precip shield, even from its hi-res
counterparts. So, leaned away from its solution which essentially
keeps areas north of a Bowling Green to Richmond line dry.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep us dry through Thursday,
though low levels stay fairly moist so there may be a fair amount of
cloudiness, especially Wednesday and Thursday. With return surface
flow and the ridging aloft will go fairly warm with highs 70-75
Tuesday through Thursday (about ten degrees warmer than normal),
though afternoon temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much
cloud cover is realized. Lows will be in the 50s.
Late in the week an upper trof will eject northeastward out of the
Rockies, bringing a surface low from the Plains to the Great Lakes
and sweeping its attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with
the best chances still looking to be on Friday. Surface instability
looks weak with this system but it has strong dynamics associated
with it so it will still bear watching.
Models have trended drier for Friday night and Saturday as the front
swings off to the east. The air behind the front doesn`t look too
cold, with lows Saturday morning in the 40s and highs that afternoon
around 60.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf and a stubborn low-level
inversion is keeping IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings in place at BWG while
SDF/LEX lie on the fringe of this boundary and as of 17z, have begun
to lift/scatter out some. Very dry air is above this inversion, so
there is above average confidence that SDF/LEX will remain out of
the low clouds through the aftenoon.
Main concern is fog potential tonight as guidance trends toward a
narrow band of fog forming on the northern edge of the high cloud
shield. Where exactly this sets up remains uncertain though pretty
much all of the guidance hints at it. The boundary layer conditions
look favorable for fog as well, with light winds and plenty of
residual moisture in place. Trended the TAFs toward this scenario.
If it looks like the high clouds will be east of SDF/LEX overnight,
then IFR or worse conditions will be possible. At BWG, plan on low-
end or IFR conditions through the period, dropping to near LIFR
overnight as moisture continues to pool within the low-level
inversion.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1056 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
SOME DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING NEAR KJKL AND HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
NEAR LOST CREEK IN BREATHITT COUNTY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN RATHER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR THIS MOISTURE TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR IT TO OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING. CLOUDS PERSIST AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FURTHER LOWERING OF MAX T MAY BE
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LET THE GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY
RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS WELL...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THE DAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...THE
BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POISED TO EXIT ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A STILL LINGERING AND STRONG LL JET SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
UPSTREAM FOR TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW OVER TX BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE. QUITE SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING
FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGING THE DEFORMATION ZONE FAR INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY KEEPS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CONSENSUS
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BRING POPS BACK NORTH INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THERE IN LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE SHIELD OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT
DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
PRETTY EXTENSIVE ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND
RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS OFF
TO THE EAST...HAVE LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA PUTTING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A WAA SITUATION AGAIN AND AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS FOR MONDAY A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALL DEPICT AN OPENING
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THESE LATTER MODELS WAS
FAVORED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH...BUILDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS RIDGE THEN WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD KENTUCKY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST FASTEST IN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GFS
LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND UNLIKE THE MUCH SLOWER AND OUT OF SYNCH GEM.
THE GEM WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS A RESULT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS SERVICEABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
ACCORDINGLY...THE SYSTEM/S TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH WEAKENING ENERGY
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH BY THAT NIGHT AS HEIGHTS GENTLY
BOTTOM OUT BENEATH A FAIRLY FLAT TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE CR GRID
BLEND TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT PRETTY WELL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SHEARED OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SHOWERS
DRY UP. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WARM UP EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SHOULD ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP...
BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SOUTH
OF...KENTUCKY KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BULK OF
THE AREA TO STAY DRY.
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE POPS ON SATURDAY TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINATIVE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...VISIBILITY
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...BEING UNDER PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CLOUD
COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE WITH BELOW IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT SLIGHTLY BY 00Z AS A BREAK IN BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS SETS UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
954 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Forecast into the afternoon hours remains on track as moisture
trapped within a shallow but steep inversion is keeping low
clouds/stratus around. Morning fog has mostly burned off per latest
observations. 01.12z ILN sounding does show a significant dry air
layer just above the inversion...and cross sections and forecast
soundings from the HRRR and other hi-res models suggest we should
begin to erode that moisture layer by afternoon, mainly across
southern IN and northern KY though there will be plenty of high
clouds around to keep skies mostly cloudy. Southern KY will probably
stay in the low clouds through the day. Despite the clouds,
temperatures are climbing and are on track to reach the mid 60s.
Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Updated the grids to reflect the latest T/Td/Wind trends. Will leave
mention of an isolated rain shower or a few pockets of light drizzle
in for a couple hours across our east this morning as a some light
returns still show up on radar. Will also mention some patchy fog in
a few locations for a couple hours around dawn. Removed early
morning wording from the ZFP.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Steady rain has ended across the area, however patches of drizzle
and/or very light rain showers will persist through the pre-dawn
hours in some locations. Temps will generally stay in the low and
mid 50s under heavy cloud cover before sunrise.
It will dry out today, however we`ll stay under heavy cloud cover
over the southern two thirds of the CWA. The northern third has a
shot at seeing some sun and slightly warmer temps by afternoon. Have
gone with a fairly pessimistic temp forecast across south central KY
where the heavy cloud cover and lack of advection should keep the
mercury from wandering too far. Expecting low to mid 60s there, with
mid and upper 60s north. Did want to mention that we will hang onto
a very small chance of a measurable shower near the Lake Cumberland
region as that region could stay on the very northern fringes of a
precip shield extending from the western Gulf Coast system.
Chances for light rain across our SE CWA will increase tonight as a
better surge of moisture occurs with the southern system sliding
further east. Chances will then linger into Monday as the system
opens up and begins to eject east, bringing the deeper moisture
skirting mainly to our SE. Went with a mild temp forecast overnight
under expected cloud cover and a light NE wind. Looking for upper
40s north to mid 50s south. Highs Monday should top out in the low
70s north and the upper 60s south and east under heavier cloud cover
and a continued cool light NE surface flow.
Did want to mention that the NAM seems to be an outlier with a
further north progression of the precip shield, even from its hi-res
counterparts. So, leaned away from its solution which essentially
keeps areas north of a Bowling Green to Richmond line dry.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep us dry through Thursday,
though low levels stay fairly moist so there may be a fair amount of
cloudiness, especially Wednesday and Thursday. With return surface
flow and the ridging aloft will go fairly warm with highs 70-75
Tuesday through Thursday (about ten degrees warmer than normal),
though afternoon temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much
cloud cover is realized. Lows will be in the 50s.
Late in the week an upper trof will eject northeastward out of the
Rockies, bringing a surface low from the Plains to the Great Lakes
and sweeping its attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with
the best chances still looking to be on Friday. Surface instability
looks weak with this system but it has strong dynamics associated
with it so it will still bear watching.
Models have trended drier for Friday night and Saturday as the front
swings off to the east. The air behind the front doesn`t look too
cold, with lows Saturday morning in the 40s and highs that afternoon
around 60.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Other than a few lingering pockets of light drizzle early this
morning, expect a dry forecast through this cycle. Main challenge
will be low ceilings and when each site will see improvement. All 3
sites are currently experiencing IFR ceilings and this will persist
through the morning. Winds have also gone nearly calm and seeing a
vis reduction along with the low ceilings as a result. So, expecting
MVFR vis with IFR (possibly near minimums at times) up through
around sunrise. Expecting SDF to begin to scatter out around 10 AM
EST, however not expecting a return to VFR until around Noon. LEX
will follow the same process about an hour or two later. BWG will
hold onto IFR the longest, where improvement isn`t anticipated until
mid afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable through the period, and will still
have a bkn/ovc upper cloud deck when sites go VFR. Also wanted to
mention a reasonable possibility of some fog later this evening. One
limiting factor may be thick upper clouds. Will hint at it in the
TAFs for now.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
706 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT. A FAST
MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG NOW TERM UPDATE WAS TO XTND ISOLD TO
SCT SHWR BAND OVR THE N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTN OF THE FA A FEW MORE
HRS...AT LEAST INTO ERLY EVE BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE
ON RADAR AND PROJECTED 22Z HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF INTO THIS EVE.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY FCST TEMPS WERE MADE IN ADDITION
TO CORRECTIONS TO HI TRRN TEMPS TRENDS WERE MADE THRU THE NEAR
TERM.
ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
H925-H850 MOISTURE WILL PREVENT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT
TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL
DIP TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR BANGOR AND
DOWN EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES MAINE DUE TO
AN AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT IN THE ALLAGASH AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM
FRONT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME SNOW
FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING KICKS IN. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK ZONES ONE AND TWO. AS ALWAYS FOR EARLY SEASON
SNOW...BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES WILL BE PARAMOUNT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1000 FT MORE LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS. THESE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH OVER AN INCH IN GRASSY AREAS. DUE TO
WARM RECENT TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
BRIEF...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORESEE TRAVEL ISSUES. THE SNOW WILL
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE LATER IN THE MORNING AS WARMER LOW
LEVEL AIR OVERTAKES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ALL DAY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
SOUTHWARD TO HOULTON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE NEAR 40F TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTHWARD.
THE FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND MUCH OF DOWN EAST IS MUCH DIFFERENT
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE CIRCULATING NORTH BEHIND THE HIGH AND
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING AND VIGOROUS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE WINDY
AND WARM WITH SHOWERS AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST. DRIER
AIR SHOULD FOLLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS. DOWNEAST WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NORTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AIR ON
SUNDAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY MAY TREND CLEARER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS NORTH AND CLEARER SKIES DOWNEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL DISSOLVE THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
SITES...BUT RETURN LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF HUL. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING THESE NORTHERN SITES TO IFR TUESDAY MORNING. BGR AND BHB
SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR, AND IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE VFR ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY GALE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
144 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1022MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL PUSH EAST ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE
SOME QUICK MOVING RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...WHICH
LARGELY CORRELATE WITH MOISTURE AOA 700MB PER RNK/GSO 00Z/01
SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN RURAL LOCATIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AS A
WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND REACHES INTO
THE OH VALLEY...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN/LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TEND TO BECOME STEADY. LOWS GENLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS.
THE 18Z/31 GFS/NAM EACH INDICATE A DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 310K THETA
SURFACE...WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING MODEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. ADDITIONALLY 12Z/31 HIGH-RES ARW AND THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS W OF THE
BAY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LOW-END
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS AOB 0.10".
THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTN...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATE AFTN THOUGH...MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE
DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE INTO THE
CWA. THIS IS RESULTING FROM THE BEGINNING OF A NE TREK OF THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC
RANGE AFTER 3 PM OVER SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
SUN...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF I-95 TO AROUND 70 F ACRS
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST 12Z/31 MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY AGREE ON A WET
SCENARIO FOR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-100% OVER SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT (MOST
OF THIS AFTER THE LATE EVENING HRS) AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE
GULF CST LIFTS ENE...AND 250MB JET RRQ FORCING INCREASES IN
EARNEST. AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEAR 2" OVER THE SOUTH. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 80% OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS MIN...60-70% ACRS THE
FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 2-3" OF TOTAL QPF IN NE NC AND FAR
SE VA...TO 0.50 TO 1" ACRS THE NORTH. STILL DO NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING GIVEN THIS IS A LONG TERM ~24
TO 36 HR EVENT. HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 50S W/NW...TO THE UPPER 60S
SE. GRADUAL DRYING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM FROM NW TO
SE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING FROM THE N ON
TUE...HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENRLY DRY
CONDS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG
THE MID ATLC/NE CST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK SFC WAVE OFF
THE NC CST AND THUS A LO CHANCE OF PCPN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS A DRY FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN MSTLY A
DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR SE AREAS. UPR-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THEREAFTER THRU AT
LEAST FRI...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LO/MID 70S
THUR AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRNT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STARTING OUT W/ BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10KFT...WHICH
ARE XPCD TO GRADUALLY LWR TO 5-8KFT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS. SLO SATURATION TO LWR/MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY
-RA AFT 11-14Z/01 (WHICH LIKELY LAST ABT 2-4 HRS IN MOST PLACES).
WK FNTL BNDRY AND MOISTURE AXIS SINKS SE THROUGH THE FA MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN. HAVE ADDED -RA TO KECG LTR THAN OTHER SITES (AFT
19-21Z/01). HI END MVFR CIGS LT TDA/TNGT. LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH
SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON NGT ALG STATIONARY FNT. PDS OF IFR
ALG W/ WIDESPREAD RA DEVELOPING XPCD MON/MON NGT. THE WX IS SLO TO
IMPROVE TUE W/ VFR CONDS BY LT IN THE DAY. DRY WX/VFR WED-THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES W/ THIS FCST PACKAGE. S WNDS AVGG AOB 15 KT
ATTM...WILL CONT INTO THIS AFTN WHILE BECOMING A BIT MORE SW. WK
SFC FNTL BNDRY PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVE...STALLING JUST S OF THE WTRS TNGT. WNDS BECOMING WNW...THEN N
AFT THE BNDRY SETTLES S OF THE RGN LT TDA-TNGT (SPEEDS MNLY AOB 10
KT). SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH THE SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON
NGT...W/ WNDS OVR THE WTRS BECOMING NE. PTNTL FOR LO END SCAS AS
LO PUSHES OFF THE NC CST MON NGT W/ NE WNDS INCRSG TO 15-25
KT...MNLY FAR SRN BAY AND ATLC WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISL VA. WAVES
INVOF MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT...SEAS 4-6 FT OVR THE
SRN ATLC CSTL WTRS (DUE TO THE XPCD INCRS IN NE WNDS). SINCE ANY
SCA CONDS PRIMARILY 4-5TH PDS OF FCST WILL HOLD OFF ON SCAS.
MARINE CONDS SLO TO IMPROVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1022MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL PUSH EAST ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE
SOME QUICK MOVING RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...WHICH
LARGELY CORRELATE WITH MOISTURE AOA 700MB PER RNK/GSO 00Z/01
SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN RURAL LOCATIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AS A
WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND REACHES INTO
THE OH VALLEY...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN/LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TEND TO BECOME STEADY. LOWS GENLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS.
THE 18Z/31 GFS/NAM EACH INDICATE A DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 310K THETA
SURFACE...WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING MODEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. ADDITIONALLY 12Z/31 HIGH-RES ARW AND THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS W OF THE
BAY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LOW-END
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS AOB 0.10".
THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTN...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATE AFTN THOUGH...MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE
DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE INTO THE
CWA. THIS IS RESULTING FROM THE BEGINNING OF A NE TREK OF THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC
RANGE AFTER 3 PM OVER SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
SUN...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF I-95 TO AROUND 70 F ACRS
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST 12Z/31 MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY AGREE ON A WET
SCENARIO FOR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-100% OVER SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT (MOST
OF THIS AFTER THE LATE EVENING HRS) AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE
GULF CST LIFTS ENE...AND 250MB JET RRQ FORCING INCREASES IN
EARNEST. AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEAR 2" OVER THE SOUTH. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 80% OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS MIN...60-70% ACRS THE
FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 2-3" OF TOTAL QPF IN NE NC AND FAR
SE VA...TO 0.50 TO 1" ACRS THE NORTH. STILL DO NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING GIVEN THIS IS A LONG TERM ~24
TO 36 HR EVENT. HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 50S W/NW...TO THE UPPER 60S
SE. GRADUAL DRYING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM FROM NW TO
SE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING FROM THE N ON
TUE...HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENRLY DRY
CONDS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG
THE MID ATLC/NE CST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK SFC WAVE OFF
THE NC CST AND THUS A LO CHANCE OF PCPN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS A DRY FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN MSTLY A
DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR SE AREAS. UPR-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THEREAFTER THRU AT
LEAST FRI...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LO/MID 70S
THUR AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRNT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STARTING OUT W/ BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10KFT...WHICH
ARE XPCD TO GRADUALLY LWR TO 5-8KFT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS. SLO SATURATION TO LWR/MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY
-RA AFT 11-14Z/01 (WHICH LIKELY LAST ABT 2-4 HRS IN MOST PLACES).
WK FNTL BNDRY AND MOISTURE AXIS SINKS SE THROUGH THE FA MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN. HAVE ADDED -RA TO KECG LTR THAN OTHER SITES (AFT
19-21Z/01). HI END MVFR CIGS LT TDA/TNGT. LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH
SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON NGT ALG STATIONARY FNT. PDS OF IFR
ALG W/ WIDESPREAD RA DEVELOPING XPCD MON/MON NGT. THE WX IS SLO TO
IMPROVE TUE W/ VFR CONDS BY LT IN THE DAY. DRY WX/VFR WED-THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST. THE HI WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AFTR
MIDNITE. 10-15 KT S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN...UNTIL A TROF
OF LO PRES CROSSES THE AREA SUN NGT. MEANWHILE...SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE SE STATES SUN NGT INTO MON...WITH WINDS OVER THE
WTRS BCMG NELY. AS THE LO SLIDES S OF THE FA ERLY IN THE WEEK...THIS
WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SCA CONDS OVER AT LEAST THE SRN BAY
AND OCEAN. FOR MON/TUE...EXPECT 10-20 KT WINDS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT
OVER THE SRN BAY...AND 15-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT OVER
CSTL WTRS. MARINE CONDS THEN IMPROVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
633 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND
RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO
KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN
OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS
GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED
ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W
AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN
TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE
GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING -
SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY
MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL
BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E
TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW
VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT
NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD
BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD
KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP
TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN
ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER
WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS
THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AND KCMX WHERE MVFR VIS WAS
INCLUDED IN FCST LATE TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...
MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-
30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES
LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR
COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15-
25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT
SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO
ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK
SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E
THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB.
GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER
SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND
SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG
THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS
UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN
SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE
MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE
H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV
RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY
W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS
35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC
WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST
NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING
THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW
LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES
ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE
CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE
W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE
E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH
GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY
FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C
FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT
850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS.
AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH
THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP
WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES.
AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND
S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE
RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL
CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO
10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE
WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE
PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA-
ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET
UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO
AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND
ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO
JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER THE TAF SITES TO
START THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECT THEM TO TRANSITION TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN
PERIODS OF VFR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE IS ENOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO CONTINUE THAT AS THE PREVAILING VALUES WITH
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS. ONCE THE MVFR CLOUDS DEPART...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS A VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W
WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI
PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE
PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS
FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A
LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
627 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT
SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO
ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK
SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E
THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB.
GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER
SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND
SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG
THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS
UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN
SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE
MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE
H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV
RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY
W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS
35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC
WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST
NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING
THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW
LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES
ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE
CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE
W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE
E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH
GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY
FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C
FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT
850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS.
AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH
THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP
WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES.
AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND
S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE
RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL
CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO
10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE
WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE
PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA-
ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET
UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO
AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND
ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO
JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
A STEADY/GUSTY WNW FLOW BTWN LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND A HI
PRES RDG ADVANCING THRU THE PLAINS WL BRING LO CLDS AND PREDOMINANT
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TODAY TO THE TAF SITES. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT IWD
AND ESPECIALLY CMX THIS MRNG WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WINDS WL
ALSO GUST UP TO 20-25KTS MUCH OF TODAY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION. ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE HI PRES RDG WL RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY
EVNG...SOME MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/SW FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF
THE DEPARTING RDG WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TNGT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APRCHG DISTURBANCE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W
WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI
PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE
PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS
FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A
LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT
SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO
ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK
SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E
THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB.
GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER
SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND
SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG
THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS
UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN
SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE
MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE
H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV
RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY
W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS
35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC
WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST
NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING
THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW
LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES
ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE
CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE
W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE
E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH
GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY
FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C
FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT
850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS.
AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH
THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP
WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES.
AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND
S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE
RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL
CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO
10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE
WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE
PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA-
ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET
UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO
AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND
ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO
JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT NE OF THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KCMX. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT TO IMPROVE TO HIGH MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT WILL BE AT
KCMX WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W
WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI
PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE
PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS
FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A
LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
728 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN
SPOTS TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD
WERE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS TONIGHT. WE ALSO ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG EARLIER AS KINL WAS DOWN TO 2.5SM AND FOG WAS
REPORTED AT KD25.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT
WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT
DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD
COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE
HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED
A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING
COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN
PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT
ALONG WITH PTYPE.
THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
0C THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS
WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF
IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND THE RAP INDICATES THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND
KINL RECENTLY REPORTED 4SM IN FOG AND BKN002. WE MENTION FOG IN
ALL OF THE TAFS AS WELL AS SOME IFR CEILINGS.
THE NAM DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MUCH OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH THAT SCENARIO. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AS
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 54 47 59 / 0 0 10 20
INL 35 50 41 54 / 20 0 20 20
BRD 42 64 49 67 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 38 66 50 64 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 40 59 48 61 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
614 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT
WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT
DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD
COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE
HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED
A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING
COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN
PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT
ALONG WITH PTYPE.
THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
0C THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS
WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF
IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND THE RAP INDICATES THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND
KINL RECENTLY REPORTED 4SM IN FOG AND BKN002. WE MENTION FOG IN
ALL OF THE TAFS AS WELL AS SOME IFR CEILINGS.
THE NAM DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MUCH OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH THAT SCENARIO. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AS
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
920 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ALTHOUGH VERY FEW OBSERVATIONS
REFLECT IT AND IT IS ALSO ABSENT FROM THE RADAR. LOOKING AT THE
SOUNDING...THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND MODELS SUGGEST
THERE MAY BE AN INVERTED FEATURE AROUND 850 MB. WHILE THE SOUNDING
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...THAT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WV...OFTEN
TIMES...IT TAKES A DAY OR SO FOR THE AREA TO CLEAR ANY FEATURES
AROUND 850. LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WITH LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE DRIER VALUES ARE JUST TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...NOT CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY IF THE DRY SURFACE AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES AND USED THE RUC TO ADJUST THE LOWS. RAISED
VALUES A COUPLE DEGREES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION....SOME CLEAR SLOTS HAVE FORMED IN THE DELTA REGION OF MS
THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN THOSE
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LOWER ALONG
WITH THE FORMATION OF FOG AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO IFR BRIEFLY
TOWARD DAWN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 59 76 58 80 / 10 2 5 3
MERIDIAN 60 75 55 79 / 10 7 6 7
VICKSBURG 58 76 56 81 / 10 5 4 4
HATTIESBURG 60 77 58 82 / 10 3 7 5
NATCHEZ 57 75 61 81 / 10 4 5 3
GREENVILLE 57 77 58 80 / 10 2 4 4
GREENWOOD 57 77 58 80 / 10 2 4 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
915 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 902 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015
Have issued a dense fog advisory through 9 am Tuesday. Area of low
stratus and fog over southern Illinois has expanded into central
Illinois and eastern Illinois. Several locations including KSTL
have already dropped to 1/4SM, and latest runs of RAP and HRRR
suggest that this area will continue to expand northwestward
through the night. Given the lowering dewpoint depressions, the
visibility guidance from the HRRR, and similar setup to last
night...see no reason that we should see more dense fog again
tonight. Far northwestern corner is currently the driest and
farthest from the area of stratus...but will continue to monitor
through the night to see if they will need to be added to the fog
advisory. Otherwise...going forecast still looks on track.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015
Primary concern for tonight is the redevelopment and spreading of
low stratus and fog across the area. There is a very persistent
area of stratus just southeast of the STL Metro area which is
already starting to inch its way northwestward. All short-range low
level RH progs point to this northwest movement continuing
tonight...and given that it`s already started I may not have it
overspreading the area fast enough. Another area of persistent
stratus north of Springfield Missouri is dissipating at this time
but i think it will probably stop dissipating and begin expanding
again after sunset. Additionally, think stratus will redevelop over
northeast Oklahoma and eastern Kansas and spread toward our central
MO counties. Guidance shows a dry slot over parts of our central
and northeast Missouri counties where stratus may not move over,
however those areas should radiate strongly with clear sky and light
wind. Fog will likely be the result. Regardless of sky condition,
I did put areas of fog in across the entire area late tonight. As
the boundary layer cools, the stratus should lower toward the
ground, resulting in fog. Dense fog is certainly a possibility, but
did not mention it in the forecast yet since I`m not certain how low
the visibility will get under the stratus.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015
Extent, location, and longevity of tonight`s stratus and fog will
remain the main forecast concern heading into tomorrow. Its always
difficult to pin down exact low cloud trends in regimes with very
shallow moisture, but judging by the gradual increase of southerly
low level flow and today`s cloud trends, expect some low clouds
and/or fog over much of the FA by 12z Tue with this cloudiness then
attempting to erode during the afternoon hours.
Obviously these cloud trends will have a huge impact on highs, as
can be seen this in this afternoon temps that are varying 15 or more
degrees between the cloudy areas and those locations that are
experiencing sunshine...over a distance of about 50 miles. Model
consensus seems to suggest that most persistent area of cloudiness
tomorrow will be over southeast sections of the CWA, and because of
this have dropped max temps in this area into the upper 60s while
maintaining lower to middle 70s elsewhere. If clouds persist
throughout the day temps beneath the clouds will be even cooler than
this, but given the fact that temp gradient will be so large between
the cloudy and sunny areas will leave additional adjustments to the
nowcast time frame, when cloud deck trends hopefully become
a bit more clear.
Low cloud potential will continue to be a forecast concern heading
into midweek, but with so much unknown on Tuesday`s trends getting
too specific in later periods is nearly impossible at this point.
Will broadbrush clouds over the area in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame with the thinking that increasing southerly flow should
allow additional low cloudiness to overspread the region.
However,also believe that the increase in mixing may prevent the
clouds from becoming too thick and/or persistent, so have maintained
fairly mild afternoon highs in the 70s across the entire CWA on
Wednesday.
12z guidance remains in fairly good agreement with NWP runs over the
previous 36 hours in bringing deep trof over the western CONUS into
the central U.S. later in the week. There will be some threat of
elevated showers and thunderstorms perhaps as early as Thursday as
moisture begins a dramatic increase across the region, but the
main precip threat should be centered on the Thursday night time
frame when strong shortwave sweeps from southern plains into the
Mississippi Valley. Initialization scheme has increased PoPs into
categorical range, and this looks reasonable given available
moisture and intensity of system.
While thunderstorms will certainly be possible, still very much
uncertain about severe potential with this system. Large scale wind
fields are certainly stout but warm sector AMS is looking fairly
waterlogged and not particularly unstable, so threat may be a cool
season high-shear, low CAPE setup.
Still appears rain threat will rapidly end from west to east
during the day on Friday as strong cold front sweeps across the
region, followed by cool and dry weather for next weekend and into
early next week.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015
IFR stratus is making its way back to the north and west this
evening, so by 01z-02z all of STL metro tafs to have IFR cigs.
They will remain that way with some patchy mvfr vsbys in fog
through late morning on Tuesday. Then cigs to lift to MVFR and
scatter out by 21z Tuesday. As for KCOU and KUIN, forecast a bit
trickier. Will either have clear skies with fog developing or
stratus to advect into these sites. For now have IFR cigs/vsbys
moving in between 10z-11z Tuesday. Then see conditions improve to
MVFR after 21z Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
IFR stratus is making its way back to the north and west this
evening, so by 01z-02z all of STL metro tafs to have IFR cigs.
They will remain that way with some patchy mvfr vsbys in fog
through 17z Tuesday. Then cigs to lift to MVFR and scatter out by
21z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
929 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED S THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
RISES WERE CREATING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATED WINDS
TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS. WINDS LOOKED LESS GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING E OF KBIL ON RADAR
AS WELL AS OVER KLVM AND COOKE CITY. THE SHOWERS OVER THE E WERE
THE RESULT OF FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE 700 MB FRONT MOVING S
THROUGH THE AREA. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
ALMOST 200 J/KG OF CAPE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TODAY.
SHORTWAVES...UPSLOPE FLOW AND A GOOD PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WERE
PRODUCING THE WESTERN SHOWERS. THE WHOLE AREA OF MOISTURE WAS
SINKING S ON SATELLITE AND WAS SUPPORTED BY NEW MODELS. DID ADD
LOW POPS FROM KBIL E AND S TODAY...SHIFTING THEM S THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER POPS OVER KLVM AND THE SW MOUNTAINS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE.
LOWERED MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON WEB CAMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S. ADJUSTED TONIGHT/S WINDS TO MAKE THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH ADJLAV GUIDANCE. MIXING SUPPORTED TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS.
QUICK GLANCE AT NEW GFS FOR THE STORM SYSTEM SHOWED MORE OF A SE
DRY SLOT THAN BEFORE. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE WHOLE NEW PACKAGE
OF DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
FOR TODAY...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA UNDER MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MONDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING MOISTURE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA RANGES. AT THIS
POINT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH MAINLY A WET
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE REAL ACTION STARTS ON MONDAY. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EURO WERE QUITE SIMILAR... BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH EXISTING THE SFC LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED THAN
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED... ESPECIALLY IN THE EURO... SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST TO FIT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
DAYS 2 THRU 8... THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK WAS LOCATED OFF THE BC COAST PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W MON
NIGHT... WITH INCREASING POPS BEGINNING IN THE W MOUNTAINS. SW
FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA MON NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH BECOMES
BROADER OVER THE REGION AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER S ID BY
TUESDAY MORNING... A FEATURE SLIGHTLY MORE APPARENT IN THE EURO.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK SW TO NE INTO SW MT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF 300MB JET DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION... STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO TUE EVENING. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT
MOVES E TUE EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NW EARLY WED
AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES TO THE NE FROM CENTRAL WY TO N SD AND
FILLS... BRINING THE COLDER AIR WITH A STRONGER PUSH TO S. GOOD
MOISTURE WAS STILL FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE
ABOVE...THERE WAS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIPITATION EVENT MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WED...
ESPECIALLY IN SE MT AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE ZERO DEGREE C 850 MB LINE REMAINS N OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
NIGHT. DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL HELP SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN. THE 850 MB ZERO LINE THEN
SINKS S INTO THE AREA ON TUE...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED RAIN/SNOW
MIX. THIS SUBFREEZING SFC AIR REACHES KBIL BY TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE EURO BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING IN THE GFS. TIMING OF THIS
COLD AIR SURGE WILL BE CRITICAL TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOW
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CREATED BY THE ABOVE FACTORS WILL
ULTIMATELY FALL AS SNOW... GIVEN THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FURTHER
COOL TUE NIGHT AND WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON... AND EVEN LATER IN THE GFS GIVEN LATER PUSH OF COLD
AIR. SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVING
PRECIPITATION... A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF BUT NOT AS HIGH OF
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN QUESTIONS ON HOW THE DYNAMICS
WILL PLAY OUT...AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO BE LIKELY IN THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE COMING FORECAST AS
THE WAVE COMING ONSHORE BEGINS TO BE SAMPLED BY RAWINSONDE DATA.
MODELS SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT
WITH RIDGING TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN MOUNTAINS... REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLOWLY UPWARD AFTER COLDEST TEMPS WED TO
LOW 50S BY SUN. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH A HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 038/051 035/041 028/038 022/041 026/043 026/047
2/W 26/W 88/W 84/W 11/B 12/W 10/B
LVM 059 033/046 030/038 024/035 021/038 025/041 024/045
5/W 36/W 98/W 85/J 11/B 22/W 11/B
HDN 064 035/054 033/043 029/039 022/044 025/046 025/051
2/W 26/W 87/W 86/W 11/B 12/W 11/U
MLS 066 037/055 037/044 030/039 024/045 025/044 026/050
2/W 31/E 87/W 75/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 065 037/056 036/049 032/041 025/048 027/048 027/055
2/W 26/W 76/W 64/W 11/B 11/B 11/U
BHK 064 034/054 035/045 028/039 022/044 022/043 023/049
0/N 21/B 87/W 65/W 11/B 11/B 11/U
SHR 065 034/053 031/045 028/040 021/046 024/047 024/054
2/W 26/W 77/W 74/W 11/B 12/W 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
611 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 240 PM CST...THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN TIED AT BOTH
THE GRAND ISLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HASTINGS MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AND ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE OF THIS
IS LOW AND OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WHILE MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL HELP KEEP
DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
LOW TEMPERATURES IS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS EXPECTED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS WE THEN WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST
FALLING SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD. BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES...THIS FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY
END UP BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE...DESPITE GOING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
MOST GUIDANCE. OF NOTE...IF STRATUS AND FOG DOES DEVELOP...THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD END UP BEING A BUST...AS THE MET GUIDANCE
IS ABOVE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT
SAID...ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE OF FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS LOW...AND
FELT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE GOING WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 20C.
ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED IN THE MID
TERM PERIODS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
RESULTING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DEEP ACROSS
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...THIS COULD COME INTO QUESTION
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST NAM RUNS...AND ONLY THE
NAM...SUGGESTS SOME STRATUS DECK TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP A WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AGAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE
GFS SOLUTION REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
ECMWF DUMPING AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF QPF ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE BUT STILL
SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MORE DEFINED THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...MILD RIDGING AND EVEN
SOME ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S. SATURDAY
MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND ANOTHER NIGHT OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS
IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST 1000 FT AGL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 9 PM
AND LASTING UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE NAM INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
GFS AND RUC ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP
VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK AS WE
NEAR DAWN AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
NEAR RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...
CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD (YEAR)
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 (1978)
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 (1978)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY THEN DISSIPATE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA WITH LITTLE RAIN NEAR THE COAST. PER
LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR AND CONTINUED TRENDS FROM BOTH THE
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...THINK PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP TO CATEGORICAL LATER TONIGHT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT AS WARM
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS TODAY AND WITH BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS
ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHEAST WINDS STILL IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MON...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS THRU THURSDAY.
DRIES OUT FRI...AS WEAKENING LOW LIFTS N AND HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM OFFSHORE. EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS SAT AND SUN...WITH BEST
CHANCES SAT NIGHT. COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AS RAIN BECOMES STEADIER...EXPECT VSBYS TO
FOLLOW SUIT AND DROP INTO THE 2-4 NM RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WILL FOLLOW TRENDS IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SHORT-RANGE
MODELS AND SHOW A MINIMAL AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
DURING TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS RISING TO THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE AND
VSBY IMPROVING TO 5 MILES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS. EXPECT
PREDOMINANT VFR TO RETURN LATER THU AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR WINDS ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL DROP
JUST A BIT TO 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4-FOOTERS OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MON...SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E OF THE
WATERS TUE NIGHT THEN STALL OFF THE SE COAST...WITH NE FLOW
10-20KT DEVELOPING OVER THE MARINE AREA. CONSENSUS OF WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO 3-5 FT BUT FORECAST SEAS MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE RAISED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NE/E FLOW THRU
MIDWEEK. THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY WITH
SW WINDS DEVELOPING. SW WINDS AOB 15 KT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT DROPS
THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A GOOD SURGE OF N/NE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CTC/LEP
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
719 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEK...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION IE. THUNDER...ALSO
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE FA WILL SUCCUMB TO MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINS OVERNITE INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. THE THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED OR ISOLATED RW+ WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAINS
...WITH THE BEST THREAT LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
EXTRAPOLATING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE CURRENT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER RAINFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS SC AND GA. HAVE UPDATED THE QPF
FIELDS. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL THREE QUARTERS TO ONE AND ONE HALF
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MUCH OF IT DEPENDENT
ON THAT SWATH OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. OVERALL LOOKING AT
CATEGORICAL POPS...NO CHANGE THERE. CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT MIN
TEMP FCST. AT THE NEXT UPDATE...MAY TWEAK MIN TEMPS DEPENDING ON
THE LATEST RAP MODEL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS....................................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT HAS DEFIED MY EXPECTATION
THAT IT WOULD CRAWL NORTHWARD TEN OR TWENTY MILES FROM ITS EARLY
MORNING POSITION. THE FRONT ONLY MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE
CITY...CONWAY...TABOR CITY AND WILMINGTON BUT HAS SINCE RETREATED
SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MADE
IT INTO THE LOWER 80S FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO GEORGETOWN AND
KINGSTREE.
IT`S TOUGH TO FIND ANY MODEL THAT SHOWS THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SO I HAVE HAND-DRAWN MOST OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT NINE HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GFS...AND 12Z NMM-ARW OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK 850 MB LOW TRICKLING OVERHEAD
COULD STALL THE FRONT AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE IT PICKS
UP SOME SPEED LATE TONIGHT.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. A ZONE
OF RATHER INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS
SUPPORTING A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA AND
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BRINGING SOLID 100
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL.
WITH THE EARLY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS...BUT
THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TO
THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT TUE INTO WED ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FROM TUE AM INTO WED AFTERNOON. WORTH
NOTING THAT THESE VALUES ARE NEAR OR ABOVE MAXIMUM RECORDED VALUES
FOR EARLY NOV. THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE MID LEVEL FEATURE IS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATER WED AS THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS. BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AROUND WED NIGHT AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND FL CUTS OFF ISENTROPIC LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SHOW A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDS. THESE FACTORS WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUE AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WED
WITH LOWS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHOULD SEE WEDGE BREAK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.
THE SFC FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE SE EARLY THURS AND THEN A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURS INTO FRI.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BRIGHTEN...THERE WILL BE DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW H7. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME SUN TO MAKE
IT THROUGH BUT DO NOT EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE EITHER THURS OR FRI BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY PCP UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY WHEN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
IN PLACES WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
BY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA WITH
INCREASINGLY DEEP FLOW OF MOISTURE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING MOVING ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
LATEST GFS SHOWS CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF COLD
AND DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS
LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPING MORE OF AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN SET UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND COOL FALL LIKE WEATHER. 850 TEMPS
HAVE TRENDED COOLER POST FROPA WITH A DROP FROM NEAR 15C SAT AFTN
DOWN TO 5C BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO BE A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER SUN AND MON. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPS BELOW 40 INLAND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING IFR/LIFR
ON TUESDAY AS UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES.
THOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECT KFLO/KLBT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A MIXTURE OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAINFALL ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE
CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS LOW CIGS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE...WITH -RA/-DZ/VCSH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BASICALLY DROPPED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WATERS...WITH WINDS NOW FROM THE NNE-
ENE AROUND 10 KT. THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN-SOME OVERNIGHT WITH
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT OR POSSIBLY JUST A SOLID 15 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FEET.
ALTHOUGH A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT...8 TO 9 SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...ITS THE LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WAVES THAT WILL
DOMINATE. ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE LATER IN THIS
PERIOD. CURRENT SPECTRAL DENSITY IE. POWER CHARTS FOR BUOYS ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS INDICATE THIS ALREADY OCCURRING.
PREVIOUS......................................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THIS MORNING`S WARM FRONT MADE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS MAYBE MASONBORO ISLAND BEFORE SURGING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AGAIN. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND FORT FISHER NC TO
OAK ISLAND TO MURRELLS INLET SC AND THEN INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EVEN STALLING AGAIN AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
TRICKLES OVERHEAD. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE
COAST WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF 9-SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL AND A 3-4 SECOND WIND CHOP. SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD
AVERAGE CLOSER TO 3 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...PERHAPS LOCALLY 4 FEET
BRIEFLY IN THE STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TUE INTO WED.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER WED...RELAXING THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. AT
TIMES THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT BUT
GENERALLY SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE. SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY....WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE E-SE AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL
VEER AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND A DECENT NORTHERLY SURGE
TO FOLLOW COULD BRING SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SHIFTING WINDS ON THURS WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP MORE GRADUALLY FROM 3 FT OR LESS
ON THURS IN LIGHTER WINDS TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING AND THEN
POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY SAT NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
705 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EXPANDS SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RISK FOR
MORE SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION IE. THUNDER...ALSO
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE FA WILL SUCCUMB TO MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINS OVERNITE INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. THE THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED OR ISOLATED RW+ WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAINS
...WITH THE BEST THREAT LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
EXTRAPOLATING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE CURRENT EMBEDDED
HEAVIER RAINFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS SC AND GA. HAVE UPDATED THE
QPF FIELDS. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL THREE QUARTERS TO ONE AND ONE
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MUCH OF IT
DEPENDENT ON THAT SWATH OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. OVERALL
LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS...NO CHANGE THERE. CONTINUED WITH THE
CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST. AT THE NEXT UPDATE...MAY TWEAK MIN TEMPS
DEPENDING ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS....................................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT HAS DEFIED MY EXPECTATION
THAT IT WOULD CRAWL NORTHWARD TEN OR TWENTY MILES FROM ITS EARLY
MORNING POSITION. THE FRONT ONLY MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE
CITY...CONWAY...TABOR CITY AND WILMINGTON BUT HAS SINCE RETREATED
SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MADE
IT INTO THE LOWER 80S FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO GEORGETOWN AND
KINGSTREE.
IT`S TOUGH TO FIND ANY MODEL THAT SHOWS THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SO I HAVE HAND-DRAWN MOST OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT NINE HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GFS...AND 12Z NMM-ARW OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK 850 MB LOW TRICKLING OVERHEAD
COULD STALL THE FRONT AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE IT PICKS
UP SOME SPEED LATE TONIGHT.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. A ZONE
OF RATHER INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS
SUPPORTING A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA AND
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BRINGING SOLID 100
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL.
WITH THE EARLY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS...BUT
THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TO
THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT TUE INTO WED ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FROM TUE AM INTO WED AFTERNOON. WORTH
NOTING THAT THESE VALUES ARE NEAR OR ABOVE MAXIMUM RECORDED VALUES
FOR EARLY NOV. THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE MID LEVEL FEATURE IS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATER WED AS THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS. BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AROUND WED NIGHT AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND FL CUTS OFF ISENTROPIC LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN
SHOW A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDS. THESE FACTORS WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO PRECIP OVERNIGHT
WED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUE AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WED
WITH LOWS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHOULD SEE WEDGE BREAK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.
THE SFC FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE SE EARLY THURS AND THEN A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURS INTO FRI.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BRIGHTEN...THERE WILL BE DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW H7. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME SUN TO MAKE
IT THROUGH BUT DO NOT EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE EITHER THURS OR FRI BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY PCP UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY WHEN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
IN PLACES WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
BY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA WITH
INCREASINGLY DEEP FLOW OF MOISTURE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING MOVING ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
LATEST GFS SHOWS CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF COLD
AND DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS
LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPING MORE OF AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN SET UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND COOL FALL LIKE WEATHER. 850 TEMPS
HAVE TRENDED COOLER POST FROPA WITH A DROP FROM NEAR 15C SAT AFTN
DOWN TO 5C BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO BE A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER SUN AND MON. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPS BELOW 40 INLAND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING IFR/LIFR
ON TUESDAY AS UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES.
THOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECT KFLO/KLBT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A MIXTURE OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAINFALL ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE
CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS LOW CIGS AND AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE...WITH -RA/-DZ/VCSH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THIS MORNING`S WARM FRONT MADE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS MAYBE MASONBORO ISLAND BEFORE SURGING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AGAIN. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND FORT FISHER NC TO
OAK ISLAND TO MURRELLS INLET SC AND THEN INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EVEN STALLING AGAIN AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TRICKLES
OVERHEAD. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF 9-SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL AND A 3-4 SECOND WIND CHOP. SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD
AVERAGE CLOSER TO 3 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...PERHAPS LOCALLY 4 FEET
BRIEFLY IN THE STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TUE INTO WED.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATER WED...RELAXING THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. AT TIMES THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT BUT GENERALLY SPEEDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.
REDUCTION IN SPEEDS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2
TO 3 FT RANGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY....WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE E-SE AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL
VEER AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND A DECENT NORTHERLY SURGE
TO FOLLOW COULD BRING SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SHIFTING WINDS ON THURS WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP MORE GRADUALLY FROM 3 FT OR LESS
ON THURS IN LIGHTER WINDS TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING AND THEN
POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY SAT NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1103 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE U.S.. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...HOWEVER...IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH
OF TN AND THE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE IS TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE CSV AREA AFT 00Z.
OTW...IFR CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TX. ASSOCIATED PVA IS WELL SOUTH
AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THUS...SFC LOW IS FAR TO OUR SOUTH
AS WELL. THIS HAS ACTED TO KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH OF
TN...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT ON RADAR TODAY. LATEST HRRR DOES WANT
TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODEL QPF...OTHER THAN THE EURO...KEEPS THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
OTW...TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO PROVIDE AN UPWARD TWEAK
LATER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE MID-STATE, PRODUCING MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 58 70 54 / 20 50 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 67 55 70 52 / 20 40 40 10
CROSSVILLE 66 57 64 54 / 30 70 70 20
COLUMBIA 68 57 70 53 / 20 60 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 67 57 70 55 / 30 60 50 10
WAVERLY 67 56 70 53 / 20 40 40 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1021 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TX. ASSOCIATED PVA IS WELL SOUTH
AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THUS...SFC LOW IS FAR TO OUR SOUTH
AS WELL. THIS HAS ACTED TO KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH OF
TN...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT ON RADAR TODAY. LATEST HRRR DOES WANT
TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODEL QPF...OTHER THAN THE EURO...KEEPS THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
OTW...TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO PROVIDE AN UPWARD TWEAK
LATER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE MID-STATE, PRODUCING MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 58 70 54 / 20 50 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 67 55 70 52 / 20 40 40 10
CROSSVILLE 66 57 64 54 / 30 70 70 20
COLUMBIA 68 57 70 53 / 20 60 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 67 57 70 55 / 30 60 50 10
WAVERLY 67 56 70 53 / 20 40 40 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/
UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DRIZZLE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL SUBSTANTIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF
3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF
THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES
EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
EXTENDED IFR EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHORT TERM CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...
GIVEN THE EARLIER PARTIAL DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS... IS ONSET OF
FOG/LIFR CIGS.
EXTENDED OVERRUNNING EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED
CHANCES OF VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT JBR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
CHANCES OF VFR SHOULD QUICKLY CLOSE DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...WITH ELEVATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND REINFORCING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST
INVERSION.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE AND WHERE THE DENSEST FOG DEVELOPS...
WITH HRRR AND SREF VISIBILITY PROGS GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTING AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS HOWEVER FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS...WET GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE
FOG FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE EARLY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED
FOR INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.
GFS SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS IN
THE AFTN SO SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR E TEXAS. CLEARING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE SO WITH CLEAR
SKIES THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG. POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE.
OVERALL SHOULD HAVE QUIET CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BEGIN WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PLAIN THUR NIGHT WITH THE
ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER.
PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL AGAIN APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO AGAIN MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS BUT STILL
KEEPING WATCH SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING.
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND DECREASE
TEMPS FOR THE AREA. GFS IS STILL QUICK TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT. LEARY TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AS FAST AS THE GFS SO
WILL GRADUALLY DROP POPS OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THE
ECMWF MAY BE TOO OVERDONE WITH RAIN CHANCES.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW STILL ON TRACK TO DECREASE EVEN MORE AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE RESUMING AND
THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (WEDS
ONWARD). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES...TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT...STALLING AOA THE UPPER
TX COAST ON FRI. SCEC FLAGS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THUR. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATING THAT A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT (LATE SAT/EARLY
SUN) COULD PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 78 61 77 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 78 62 78 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 69 74 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE
SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY.
UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD TRENDS
HOLDING ONTO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO KEEP UP WITH THOSE TRENDS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TIMING OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD
FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN OVERALL WET PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH SLOWER BUT
ENOUGH FOR SOME DIFFERENCES. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS NEXT SUNDAY.
IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TALK IMPACTS BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...HOPEFULLY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS YET AGAIN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
DETERMINE THESE DETAILS AND IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST.
39
&&
.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN PREV-
IOUSLY THOUGHT AND DID ADJUST THEM SOME WITH THE UPDATE. WILL LIKELY
KEEP WITH THIS TREND TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW HELPING
TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST A
BIT UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMOR-
ROW AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS/DECREASED SEAS. SELY
WINDS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE MON...THE PERSISTING THRU
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
PCPN HANGING AROUND SE TX TODAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE STATE. THE IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE ERO-
DED SOME BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
WRAPAROUND THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW (AS IT TRACKS TO THE E/NE). NOT
A LOT OF CLEARING UNTIL PERHAPS TOMORROW AFTN. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 76 58 78 61 / 20 10 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 59 78 62 / 30 10 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 67 74 69 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND BRIEF LIGHTNING.
IT SHOULD ALL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
VFR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME LIGHT
FOG COULD FORM NEAR I-35 TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG MONDAY. DRAINAGE FLOW FROM
LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FOG FROM GETTING MUCH MORE
THAN MAINLY GROUND FOG. DAYTIME NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20%
CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT
OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS
THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO
THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE
10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING)
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM
500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE
584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL
FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS
WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION
WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE
RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 54 80 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 49 80 51 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 51 82 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 79 54 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 79 53 78 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 51 80 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 55 79 56 80 / 20 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 83 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 83 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
VFR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME LIGHT
FOG COULD FORM NEAR I-35 TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG MONDAY. DRAINAGE FLOW FROM
LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FOG FROM GETTING MUCH MORE
THAN MAINLY GROUND FOG. DAYTIME NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20%
CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT
OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS
THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO
THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE
10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING)
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM
500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE
584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL
FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS
WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION
WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE
RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 54 80 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 49 80 51 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 51 82 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 79 54 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 79 53 78 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 51 80 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 55 79 56 80 / 20 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 83 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 83 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20%
CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT
OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS
THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO
THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE
10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING)
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM
500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE
584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL
FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS
WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION
WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE
RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 54 80 56 79 / - 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 49 80 51 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 51 82 54 81 / - 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 79 54 77 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 79 53 78 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 51 80 54 80 / - 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 55 79 56 80 / 20 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 83 56 80 / - 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 83 55 82 / - 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS TRACKS INTO THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BY MONDAY
MORNING THEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EST SUNDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SW VA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE MTNS LEADING TO A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING EWD
OVER OUR FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS WITH MOISTURE
WILL BRING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO OUR MTNS BETWEEN 4AM-
8AM...MOVING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS FAVORING
THE NRN CWA DRYING OUT BY LATE MORNING...SO TRENDING LOWER ON POPS
AFTER MID MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SATURDAY EVENING...
OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND RNK SHOWED A LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT WAS
STILL DRY BUT THE REST OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE THAT WAS
SATURATED...THANKS IN PART TO THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF PICKED UP THIS PRECIPITATION WELL.
HRRR AND RUC WERE BETTER WITH THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THESE
RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE INCREASED
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO AFTER 6AM/10Z. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
HAD MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE EARLY MORNING. USED
THIS TYPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH MORNING.
A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND TO THE VA/NC
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE A
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST...MORE RAIN MAY NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
NOW AND WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WE WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AXIS ALONG
A BHM-CLT-RAH-ORF LINE. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...YIELDING A LARGE SWATH OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL.
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
PWAT VALUES OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THIS BOUNDARY TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA...THUS KEEPING
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE
CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IS
BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A TIGHT N-S GRADIENT...THE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO
NEAR 3 INCHES ALONG I-40. BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL DURING AN 18 HOUR PERIOD FOCUSED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SUNSET MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL NEED FOR A FLOOD
WATCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WOULD
CERTAINLY RESULT IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES FOR THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS THERE.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60 ONCE WE
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...THEN MOVE EAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE +10 TO +12C
RANGE. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY...LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING...ANY PRECIP THREAT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP
WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WV INTO
SW VA AROUND 08-12Z. VFR FALLS TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR AT
TIMES ACROSS BLF/LWB/BCB 10-14Z. WITH WEDGE/HIGH MOVING EAST/LIGHT
WIND AT THE SFC AND A STRONGER LLJ ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT MOST
SITES...ENDING BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS.
A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF THEDAY.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LVLS DRYING UP EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT
THE SFC...ESPECIALLY FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG...THOUGH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE REMAINS WHICH COULD
KEEP FOG IN MVFR RANGE. BLF WILL BE EXCEPTION AS THINK THERE AT
LEAST IFR CIGS AFTER 23Z. LOOKS LIKE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WITH VFR TUE-
THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN...YIELDING TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY...TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND RNK SHOWED A LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT WAS
STILL DRY BUT THE REST OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE THAT WAS
SATURATED...THANKS IN PART TO THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF PICKED UP THIS PRECIPITATION WELL.
HRRR AND RUC WERE BETTER WITH THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THESE
RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE INCREASED
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO AFTER 6AM/10Z. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
HAD MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE EARLY MORNING. USED
THIS TYPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH MORNING.
A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND TO THE VA/NC
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE A
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST...MORE RAIN MAY NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
NOW AND WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WE WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AXIS ALONG
A BHM-CLT-RAH-ORF LINE. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...YIELDING A LARGE SWATH OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL.
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
PWAT VALUES OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THIS BOUNDARY TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA...THUS KEEPING
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE
CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IS
BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A TIGHT N-S GRADIENT...THE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO
NEAR 3 INCHES ALONG I-40. BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL DURING AN 18 HOUR PERIOD FOCUSED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SUNSET MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL NEED FOR A FLOOD
WATCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WOULD
CERTAINLY RESULT IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES FOR THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS THERE.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60 ONCE WE
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...THEN MOVE EAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE +10 TO +12C
RANGE. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY...LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING...ANY PRECIP THREAT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP
WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WV INTO
SW VA AROUND 08-12Z. VFR FALLS TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR AT
TIMES ACROSS BLF/LWB/BCB 10-14Z. WITH WEDGE/HIGH MOVING EAST/LIGHT
WIND AT THE SFC AND A STRONGER LLJ ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT MOST
SITES...ENDING BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS.
A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF THEDAY.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LVLS DRYING UP EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT
THE SFC...ESPECIALLY FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG...THOUGH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE REMAINS WHICH COULD
KEEP FOG IN MVFR RANGE. BLF WILL BE EXCEPTION AS THINK THERE AT
LEAST IFR CIGS AFTER 23Z. LOOKS LIKE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WITH VFR TUE-
THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDING WELL.
WATCHING LOW STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SRN IL...BUT 01Z HRRR
AND LATEST 00Z NAM CIG FORECASTS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY THE HRRR BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH
WITH A LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. WILL KEEP
TUESDAY SKY FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW AND MONITOR NWD TREND OF
STRATUS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 08Z-09Z
WITH SURFACE WINDS HAVING DROPPED OFF AFTER SUNSET BUT 35-36 KNOT
WINDS WITHIN 2K FT OF THE SURFACE UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER LATEST NAM/RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MOST OF THE FORECAST. CURRENT BAND OF IFR STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THROUGH SRN IL...BUT 01Z HRRR AND LATEST 00Z NAM CIG FORECASTS
INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
ONLY THE HRRR BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH WITH A LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z TUESDAY.
LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLY
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF LOW MOVING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. WILL AWAIT THE REST OF THE NEW 00Z DATA TO SEE EXTENT OF
LOW CLOUDS/FOG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN A
POCKET OF HIGH RH IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TO POSSIBLY
NORTHERN IL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AT SUNSET
TONIGHT AND MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION SHOULD BE JUST LARGE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ON A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE. THE 925MB TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE TODAY... 15 TO 16C. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH MIXING WHICH MEANS LIGHTER WINDS AND POTENTIALLY
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS. IN ADDITION... WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK THERE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
OUR WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A BIG CONCERN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THE FALL THAT
CAN RUIN A BEAUTIFUL FORECAST. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THAT 925MB LAYER...BUT TO VARYING DEGREES.
TO NO ONES SURPRISE...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
PERCENTAGES A BIT MORE FROM WHAT WE HAD...BUT IT WILL BE AN ALL
OR NOTHING SKY COVER. IT WILL EITHER BE OVERCAST OR SUNNY...NOT
MUCH IN BETWEEN. A SUNNY DAY MEANS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
LOWER 70S AGAIN...BUT AN OVERCAST LOW STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD
THINGS DOWN IN THE 60S. WILL TREAD CAREFULLY FOR WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...ACTUALLY PASSING
TO OUR WEST AND HEADING NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT/S THE
FIRST OF TWO LOWS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY
WEST OF MADISON...AND ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S...MAYBE 70 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HITTING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST RIGHT NOW...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME AND
REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE MAIN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS. THE GFS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE/STRENGTHENING
1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TRACKING FROM WCNTRL MO TO SOUTH
OF CHICAGO BY 12Z FRI. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN NH SHOW PLENTY OF VARIATION
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW...TIMING/PLACEMENT ETC. BUT...THEY ALL
BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SO
RAIN IS NEARLY A SURE THING AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE DEEP
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SIGNATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS
IMPRESSIVE AND WE COULD SEE TOTAL QPF NUMBERS OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ALL OF WISCONSIN. THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEMS
WE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND
IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE AREA WILL DRY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL TUMBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING IN AGGRESSIVELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S
SATURDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT SUNSET THIS EVENING... BUT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO A SWLY 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVER SOUTHERN WI. ADDED IT TO THE 21Z TAF AMENDMENT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARD CENTRAL
WI AND CENTRAL IL... BUT NOT OVER SOUTHERN WI. LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 23Z TODAY FOR GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
528 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK
FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69
RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS
SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER
SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE
WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR
SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE
UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND
GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND
RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP
OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS...
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS
SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO
DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW
STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER
DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO
REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
(ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT
FEELS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A
SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FG/ST TO FORM
TNGT. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART
OF THE FCST. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PRODUCTS TEND TO HINT AT FG/ST
OVERNIGHT...WHILE VSBY PRODUCTS OFF THE HRRR/RAP/NAM PRETTY MUCH
AGREE IN DENSE FG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY N-C WI. PREV TAF PKG
SEEMED TO STRIKE A NICE BALANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SO USED
THEM AS A STARTING POINT AND TWEAKED THINGS TOWARD HAVING A
LITTLE MORE FG/ST OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE
PRETTY TELLING AS WE SEE JUST HOW MUCH ANY OF THE PATCHES OF
MIDDLE/HIGH CLDS STREAMING ACRS THE RGN ARE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS UP
IN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT/LGT WIND REGIME ACRS THE AREA.
IF IT BECOMES APPARENT TEMPS ARE JUST GOING TO SAIL WAY PAST
CURRENT DWPTS...WL NEED TO INCREASE THE ST/FG AND INTRODUCE
PREVAILING LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS INTO THE TAFS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON AREA RADARS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW REPORTS OF THESE LIGHT
RETURNS REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN MN.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI.
THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A BLANKET OF
MID-CLOUDS IS INCOMING HOWEVER...AND WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD
LATER TODAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT STEEP...BUT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LIGHT QPF
DEPICTED IN THE MESOMODELS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH. BEST TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BETWEEN 03-
09Z. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
PLENTY OF LOW VSBYS PROJECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY CHUGGING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE NORTH THOUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE
SUNSHINE WILL BRING UP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH AND
UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A MILD DRY PERIOD TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE EACH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COULD BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH CLOSE TO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT THIS IS NOVEMBER.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THE LATER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THE LATER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERT ON AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER TROUGH FRAGMENTS INTO SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE A 120 KT UPPER JET PARALLELS THE FRONT. LFQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL WORK WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE ARE TOWARD FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS A MORE WEST WITH
THE FRONT AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE SLIDING OVER THE
FRONT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY WITH SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES...OTHERWISE A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
GETTING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER HEIGHTS AGAIN
BUILD FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER FOR POSSIBLE RETURN TO
MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
STUBBORN MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. THEN AS LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BKN TO
OVC MID CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A SMALL CHANCE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD
FALL OUT OF THESE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WI TONIGHT...INCLUDING
RHI...SO INCLUDED A VICINTY SHOWER FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1232 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
WINDS WERE RAMPING UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND BORDEAUX...SO EXTENDED THE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 3 PM. LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 55 TO 60 MPH
RANGE...BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 10000 TO 15000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 01Z...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS AT
RAWLINS...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...AND 23 TO 33 KNOTS AT CHADRON...
ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS EVENING. PLEASE WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF
AND LANDING...AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR AND TO THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106-110.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1028 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 10000 TO 15000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 01Z...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS AT
RAWLINS...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...AND 23 TO 33 KNOTS AT CHADRON...
ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS EVENING. PLEASE WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF
AND LANDING...AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR AND TO THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
411 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. STONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE MODERATE TURBULENCE
COULD BE EXPECTED FOR TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
236 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR PREVAILS.
WYOMING TAFS...VFR PREVAILS WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL.
NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET AGL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
STARTING TOMORROW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WE`LL THEN SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY BUT THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
NOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS HEADING THIS WAY AND IS HINTING AT A LITTLE
MORE WEATHER FOR SE AZ THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS INCLUDING THE
02Z HRRR...00Z NAMDNG25 AND GFS ARE SHOWING A MODEST INCREASE IN
WIND FIELDS AND OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTH. IT ISN`T MUCH BUT IT WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR PRECIP CHANCES. AS A RESULT WE`VE
TWEAKED SURFACE DEW POINT AND RH FIELDS UP AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SUBSEQUENTLY
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FOR THE TROUGH TO WORK WITH...WE`VE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AS WELL AS MASSAGING QPF VALUES UP. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND .10 TO .35 AND
MOUNTAINS .4 TO .7 OR SO. STORM TOTAL SNOW ABOVE 7K FEET AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR MT LEMMON...4-5 INCHES FOR MT GRAHAM AND 5-7 INCHES FOR
HANNAGAN MEADOW IN THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS (NORTHERN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES)
WITH THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IN COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAST WE
CLEAR OUT. OTHERWISE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING
COLDER WITH MUCH OF COCHISE AND PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE FREEZE.
RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A STRONG WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/05Z.
SKC CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
03/14Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SURFACE WIND AFT 03/14Z...WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL AND SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS BY 03/20Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -SHRA AFT 03/22Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NORMAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE ON
TAP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MEYER/LADER
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
415 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM
IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT
BEEN EXHAUSTED.
THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...
DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES...
WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING
HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S.
THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH.
THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT
ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME
VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW
LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME
FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS
COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER
JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S
CWA-WIDE.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING
TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT
TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO
CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE
LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL
AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF.
SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY.
WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001.
AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME
WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY.
AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING
THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.
EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM)
INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID)
AND AT KPSF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN.
A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION
BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY
SENSIBLE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
A FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT RH VALUES. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE WIND TODAY WILL START OUT CALM...INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY
5-10 MPH...THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEFORE
DISSIPATING TO CALM TONIGHT.
RH VALUES LOOK A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE
OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
THURSDAY BUT THAT WOULD BE EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE
MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS
ON THE WATERSHEDS.
OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM
IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT
BEEN EXHAUSTED.
THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...
DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES...
WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING
HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S.
THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH.
THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT
ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME
VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW
LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME
FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS
COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER
JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S
CWA-WIDE.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING
TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT
TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO
CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE
LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL
AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF. SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR
HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY.
WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001.
AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME
WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY.
AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING
THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.
EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM)
INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID)
AND AT KPSF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN.
A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION
BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY
SENSIBLE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE
MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS
ON THE WATERSHEDS.
OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RETREATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF A VERY WEAK WARM WAS WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THERE WERE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF I-90.
WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE REGION...LITTLE OR NO
WIND...AND THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...TEMPERATURES IN SOME CASES HAD
DROP NEAR THEIR PREVIOUS ADVERTISED MINIMUMS. WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSING
IN ON THE TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL NOT LIKELY DROP A WHOLE LOT
MORE AS SOME PATCHY FOG FORMS. DID ADD MORE PATCHY FOG WITH THIS
UPDATE.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OUTLYING AREAS. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY NOVEMBER DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY. SOME EARLY CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FAIRLY GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING
FURTHER...ALTHOUGH SINCE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SHALLOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL START TO BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BRINGING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND MILDER MIN TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WITH WILL TURN BELOW
NORMAL AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A SLOW DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSUE...AND SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES IN SPOTS...FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT AT OR UP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE STILL THINK MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WE DECIDED TO ADD SOME TEMPO IFR FOG TO KGFL (WHICH
ALREADY BRIEFLY SOME) AS WELL AS KPSF FROM 08Z-12Z. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 40...BUT WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BOTH
PLACES INTO THE UPPER 30S.
OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) INDICATED NO FOG
ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM)
INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID)
AND COULD FORM AT KPSF.
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUED WITH MIFG ONLY AT THE KALB AND KPOU BUT THEY
ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS EITHER. CONFIDENCE AT BEST IS
ONLY MODERATE THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM AT BOTH THOSE TAF SITES.
PLEASE CHECK BACK AROUND DAYBREAK IF PLANNING TO FLY OUT OF ANY OF
OUR AIRPORTS AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE FOG COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP BY
THEN.
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL START
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION 5-10KTS TURNING TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION
BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY
SENSIBLE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS.
OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions
remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it
too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z.
Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting
around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun
is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and
low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the
possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this
occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through
the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but
breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident
with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for
afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through
the period with speeds of around 10kts of less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Already updated forecast for rest of the night. Dense fog and very
low clouds are advecting into the area from the south, spreading
north/west and east some. Based on HiRes models this will continue
to spread out across most of central and east central...and
southeast Illinois rest of the night and into tomorrow
morning...during the morning commute. Advisory does not include
PIA or BMI, or northern areas of central IL, but will be closely
monitoring the area as it spreads north to see how north it could
get. HiRes models suggest it will cover all of the CWA, but unsure
at this time. If confidence increases, then another update and an
addition to the advisory will be needed at some point.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but
flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z
ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog
dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear
under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the
Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of
moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been
how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints
and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been
very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover
development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is
being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not
mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints,
the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is
further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for
tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up
on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest.
Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night
progresses with observation of the crossover drop.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends,
followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated
precipitation.
Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as
the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected
track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it
to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to
break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low
level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as
moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into
mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday
night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly
to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear.
Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to
categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as
dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe
probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage.
The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana
border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by
about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more
toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our
area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to
be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above
normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1
inch of rain in most areas.
Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but
significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break
up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon.
Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on
Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this
week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through
Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday
and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though,
so a slow warming trend is expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions
remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it
too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z.
Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting
around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun
is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and
low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the
possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this
occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through
the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but
breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident
with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for
afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through
the period with speeds of around 10kts of less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW POTENTIAL PROBLEMS CREEPING INTO SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAINLY
STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD COUPLED WITH ELONGATED SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK JUST TO OUR
WEST THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT
HIRES MODEL RH PROGS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST IT COULD CREEP
CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE MIXING THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW STAYING WITH CLEAR FORECAST PER COLLABORATION AND WILL MONITOR
GOES FOG PRODUCT WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE WARM STRATUS CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REACH LOWER 70S ALL AREAS AND
SHOULD TACK ON A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY READINGS WITH ANOTHER 30
DEGREE DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN CLEAR BUT QUESTIONS DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND POSSIBLE MOVEMENT NORTH
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IL. NAM AND GFS LOW LEVEL
RH PROGS BOTH INDICATE THIS SCENARIO. NAM12 DOES APPEAR OVERDONE
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS RH IN POTENTIAL SOURCE REGION OF
KENTUCKY. WITH THAT SAID THERE IS SUPPORT FROM GFS WHICH ADVECTS
MOISTURE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH MET AND MAV MOS INDICATING
CATEGORY 1 FOR VIS TOWARD 12Z BUT NO INDICATION OF STRATUS. WITH
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TODAY IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WOULD BE A BIT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT TO AT LEAST REPRESENT SOME INCREASE TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION. WOULD EXPECT HIRES MODELS TO SHOW MORE
DETAIL LATER TODAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT
AND GENERALLY AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS
NOAM...PLACING OUR REGION IN DEEP S/SW FLOW. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS
IS THAT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS
RETURNING AS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD.
KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR NOW
GIVEN TENUOUS MOISTURE DEPTHS AND CPD`S BUT MAY HAVE TO GO
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL TRYING TO GENERATE
SOME SPORADIC QPF GIVEN INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC FIELDS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE A BIT MEAGER FOR HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION...EVEN ON
THURSDAY. A STRAY SPRINKLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS POINT. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 70-LOWER 70S GIVEN VERY
WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LATEST CONSENSUS BLENDS STILL
IN THAT RANGE. RECORD HIGHS OF 74-76 LIKELY JUST OUT OF REACH BUT
THURSDAY`S RECORD AT KFWA OF 73 (SET IN 2008 AND 1978) MAY BE IN
DANGER IF WE MANAGE TO GET SOME SUN. A FEW RECORD WARM LOWS COULD
ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY.
OTHER MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RAIN AND WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP
TIMING AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT THAT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED AS 50+ KT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS HIGHLY
EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF ROBUST
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT BEING
SAID...LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
925MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX THESE
WINDS DOWN. SURFACE GRADIENT ALSO VERY STRONG AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS ON ITS TREK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY. GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ARE LIKELY AND SOME GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING. COOL AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE
CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG
JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH
AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE
LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1237 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S
THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL HELP AMPLIFY MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WEST INTO THE OHIO/MID MS
VALLEYS. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE OF SAME INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
(UNSEASONABLY MILD/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/DRY). COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WITHIN INVERSION...BUT
COVERAGE/IMPACT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE GRIDS...WITH
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT
THIS FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHY OF
RECORD VALUES FOR NOV 3 (76 AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA).
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR
CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA HOLDING HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW KEPT WARM HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL BLEND. RECORD HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY 73 TO 76. A LARGE PIECE OF ENERGY AS AN UPPER TROF WILL
EJECT EAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
MATCHES EARLIER GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO AT BEST MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WINDS MAY BE MORE
THEN ENOUGH TO CHANNEL DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS EVEN THROUGH A
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY BETWEEN 10
AM EST NORTHWEST TO 7 PM EST SOUTHEAST OVER LIMA. ALSO...GFS
NON/CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS ARE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/58 MPH...SO
IT IS LIKELY SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE... DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE
CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG
JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH
AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE
LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS
HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY
SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS
MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL
LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN
DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR
WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW
REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY
ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH
SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS CURRENT MO/IL STRATUS EXPANDING WESTWARD
INTO KS/MO AND BUILDING INTO IA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
ITS PROGRESSION SO HAVE RELEGATED CIGS TO KDSM/KOTM FOR NOW. HAVE
STARTED WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES...BUT
IFR OR LIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR SLY WIND GUSTS. MODELS HINT
THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO TUE EVENING AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY NOT THERE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME RANGE AS OF
YET.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND
RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO
KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN
OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS
GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED
ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W
AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN
TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE
GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING -
SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY
MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL
BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E
TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW
VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT
NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD
BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD
KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP
TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN
ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER
WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS
THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT
UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...
MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-
30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES
LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR
COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15-
25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN
SPOTS TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD
WERE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS TONIGHT. WE ALSO ADDED
THE MENTION OF FOG EARLIER AS KINL WAS DOWN TO 2.5SM AND FOG WAS
REPORTED AT KD25.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT
WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT
DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD
COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE
HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED
A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING
COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN
PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT
ALONG WITH PTYPE.
THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
0C THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS
WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE. WE STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
IN THE EVENING MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF LAKE ON UP THE NORTH SHORE
LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ144-
145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TOMORROW
ALTHO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DECREASES CONFIDENCE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS.
ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND
THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY
TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER
CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM
NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING
STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW
IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB.
SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR
AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY.
S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING
THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT
MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED.
BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS
WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS
LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF
HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY.
EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS.
REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR
STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON
SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT
AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW
TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS...
VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL
20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE
HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE:
LOW
TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S
WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND
RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978
IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH.
NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008
HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING
STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND
LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.
INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN
KANSAS MAY MOVE UP THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD REACH KOMA
BY 12-13Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY SCATTERS OUT. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS 6 OR 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING TO 15 TO 27
KNOTS BY 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TREMENDOUS FCST UNCERTAINTY THRU TUE NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE
FORMATION OF STRATUS. THE NAM...NAM NEST AND THE NSSL WRF
SIMILATED FOG PRODUCT ALL FCST LOW STRATUS TO FORM AND RAPIDLY
EXPAND NW INTO THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. ACTUAL FOG IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING OVER OK AND SE KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HRS. WHAT IS TROUBLING IS THE HRRR IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF.
WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR THE REST OF THIS SHIFT AND THERE MAY NEED
TO BE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FCST AS WE SEE HOW THIS SITUATION
EVOLVES. AS MENTIONED IN THE ST SECTION BELOW...THERE IS HUGE BUST
POTENTIAL ON SKY/TEMPS TODAY IF THIS STRATUS FORMS. IF IT DOES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE OUT THE WINDOW.
UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS...WE WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON
CHANGING THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 240 PM CST...THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN TIED AT BOTH
THE GRAND ISLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
...AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AND ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS IS LOW AND OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY CLOUD FREE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED...THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS EXPECTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS WE THEN WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST JUST FALLING SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD.
BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES...THIS
FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE...DESPITE
GOING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. OF NOTE...IF STRATUS
AND FOG DOES DEVELOP...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD END UP BEING
A BUST...AS THE MET GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE OF
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS LOW...AND FELT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE GOING
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20C.
ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED IN THE
MID TERM PERIODS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA. RESULTING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DEEP
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE HAS SEEMED TO
SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...THIS COULD COME INTO QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
THE LATEST NAM RUNS...AND ONLY THE NAM...SUGGESTS SOME STRATUS
DECK TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AGAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
MODELS ARE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
...AS THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE ECMWF DUMPING AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF QPF ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN THE
MIDDLE BUT STILL SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MORE DEFINED
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...MILD RIDGING AND
EVEN SOME ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S. SATURDAY
MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS.
REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR
STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON
SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT
AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW
TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS...
VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL
20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE
HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE:
LOW
TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S
WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
STRAIGHT AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS
FOR NOVEMBER 3RD ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD (YEAR)
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 (1978)
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 (1978)
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL
HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A
DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER
INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
(BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW
PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND
WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND
VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS
SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL
IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID-
HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND
ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING
TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING
ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY
FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED...
LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR
FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
308 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND
ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING
TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING
ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY
FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED...
LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR
FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM MONDAY...
THE REALLY BIG HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE WARMTH EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK...OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
SLOW CLEARING OUT PROCESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE HARD TO BREAK.
THE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY... WITH ONLY 20-30 POP LINGERING FOR MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE... CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BECOME VARIABLY
CLOUDY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT BUT RANGE INTO THE LOWER 70S SE IF WE CAN
GET ENOUGH BREAKS.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECT A DISTINCT WARMING TREND AS UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NE TO
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH... A WARM UP WILL BEGIN OVER OUR
REGION AS THE SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THURSDAY... AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT SE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE FAVORED. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SW RETURN FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES. EXPECT HIGHS 75-80.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO BEGIN SATURDAY... WITH THE BEST
CHANCES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM - THEREFORE WE WILL SIMPLY BUMP UP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
50 PERCENT (JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY) IN THE FAVORED TIME PER THE
BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS. THIS WOULD TARGET SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN 60+ (SOME OF WHICH MAY CHALLENGE RECORD
HIGH MINS SAT-SUN). HIGHS SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY AFTER
THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION (55-65 NW TO SE)... AFTER A
WEEKEND IN THE 70S SAT... AND 65-75 SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY
FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED...
LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR
FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...NOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH. CONCENTRATED HIGHER POPS NORTH OF I94 AND ACROSS MY WEST AS
PER LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. THIS AGREES WITH
AREA OBSERVATIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE SOUTH. SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF LOW STRATUS ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ON THE
HIGH SIDE MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD STRATUS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS CONVERTED TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UPDATE
ALL PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LOCAL RADARS SHOW LARGE AREA OF RADAR RETURNS...INITIALLY
REPRESENTING PRECIPITATION ALOFT...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST CONSHORT/HRRR NOT QUITE KEEPING UP
WITH THE TRENDS SO ADJUSTED THE POPS HIGHER QUICKER. AS CLOUDS
MOVING TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN LOW.
LATEST 00Z NAM NEARLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING, REACHING THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENTUALLY A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX IS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. SO FAR
FORECAST LOOKS OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT...WHILE
A LARGE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK H5 WAVES ACROSS THE REGION AS H85 WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG (295K SURFACE) WITH THE BEST SATURATION
OCCURRING IN A BAND MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POPS TONIGHT AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS STILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WEST...AND WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THAT IDEA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE THERMAL
PROFILE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BRING MAINLY
RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN.
IF THERE IS ANY SNOW...DO NOT THINK IT WILL ACCUMULATE MUCH AT
ALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THEN COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY...WITH ITS AXIS MOVING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTH.
AS THE INITIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS...A BROAD
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH H850 KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING COLD ADVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN
BECOME SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOKING AT
HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S
WEST TO MID 30S JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.
A WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY...AND 45 TO 55 SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KISN AND POSSIBLY KMOT NOW THROUGH 12Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
NORTH AS KBIS-KJMS. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATING LOW
STRATUS...NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INCLUDING
KMOT...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
AS NEEDED. LOW STRATUS LIFTS TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
IFR OR LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALL SITES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH WITH FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL OVER SW TAF SITES. T/TD SPREAD HAS NARROWED AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...STILL FEEL THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/
UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE AND WHERE THE DENSEST FOG DEVELOPS...
WITH HRRR AND SREF VISIBILITY PROGS GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTING AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS HOWEVER FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR E TEXAS. CLEARING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE SO WITH CLEAR
SKIES THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG. POSSIBLE THAT
SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE.
OVERALL SHOULD HAVE QUIET CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BEGIN WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PLAIN THUR NIGHT WITH THE
ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER.
PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL AGAIN APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO AGAIN MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS BUT STILL
KEEPING WATCH SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING.
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND DECREASE
TEMPS FOR THE AREA. GFS IS STILL QUICK TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO
PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT. LEARY TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AS FAST AS THE GFS SO
WILL GRADUALLY DROP POPS OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THE
ECMWF MAY BE TOO OVERDONE WITH RAIN CHANCES.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW STILL ON TRACK TO DECREASE EVEN MORE AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE RESUMING AND
THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (WEDS
ONWARD). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES...TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT...STALLING AOA THE UPPER
TX COAST ON FRI. SCEC FLAGS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THUR. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATING THAT A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT (LATE SAT/EARLY
SUN) COULD PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 78 61 77 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 78 62 78 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 69 74 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK
FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69
RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS
SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER
SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE
WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR
SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE
UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND
GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND
RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP
OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS...
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS
SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO
DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW
STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER
DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO
REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
(ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT
FEELS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A
SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FG/ST
TNGT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FCST HAS NOT CLARIFIED MUCH SINCE THE
00Z TAF ISSUANCE. TEMPS IN THE N FELL SWIFTLY AFTER SUNSET...
RESULTING IN QUICK FOG FORMATION. THAT SEEMED TO INICATE A FOGGY
NIGHT AT RHI. BUT...FOG HAS ACTUALLY BECOME LESS PREVELANT IN THE
PAST COUPLE HRS. PLUS...STLT NOW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH-
MIDDLE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATER IN THE NGT. SO THE FOG POTENTIAL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIG CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS. FOG WL PROBABLY BE MORE OF A FACTOR
ACRS THE N INCLUDING THE RHI TAF SITE. BUT ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS
WL CONT TO FLUCTUATE...AND DO NOT FORESEE CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING AND
REMAINING LOW ALL NGT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
919 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
FOG HAS SLOWED ITS MORNING MARCH NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT DOES REMAIN
DENSE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE VISIBILITY DROPS WERE
NOTED EARLIER INCLUDING OUT OUR WINDOW. EVEN AT 9 AM...WEBCAMS
INDICATE REDUCTIONS FROM CLEAR VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OVER
JUST A FEW MILE DISTANCE ACROSS BOTH DUPAGE AND WILL COUNTIES.
WHILE THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY...THE VERY GRADUAL TREND
IN SEVERAL WEBCAMS AND THROUGH REPORTS HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT...SO
THE COLLABORATED PLAN IS TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AT 10 AM. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS INDICATED ON THE
12Z ILX RAOB IS ONLY AROUND 10 KT AND WITH WARMING AND MIXING
ENSUING...THIS GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND
HASTEN...LIKELY QUICKEST AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FOG DECK
/AROUND I-57/. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM NEAR BLOOMINGTON NORMAL
AIRPORT INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 1700 FT THICK WHICH LIKELY
SPEAKS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE
TOUGHEST TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN THIS AREA BY QUITE A
BIT. EVEN IF HOLES DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE AMOUNT OF TIME
FOR WARMING IS NOT THAT GREAT HERE IN NOVEMBER.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 70 READINGS. DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO NEAR THE WATER TEMPERATURE
READINGS...BUT THINKING ANY FOG OVER SHORE AREAS WILL PROBABLY
HOLD OFF TO AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST
CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF
NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS
DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND
1/4SM VSBY.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW
IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2
MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE
FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST
IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH
SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL
COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WEST OF THE TERMIANALS.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST WEST OF ORD.
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN AREA REMAINS WEST WITH
NO/LIMITED EASTWARD EXPANSION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LAKE LATER TODAY...WITH STRATUS/FOG BEING MORE PREVALENT
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. HAVE PULLED THE DENSE FOG FROM ORD/MDW.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT VLIFR FOG/STRATUS STAYS WEST OF ORD/MDW.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW IN
SPECIFIC TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
818 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...505 AM CST
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE
FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST
IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH
SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL
COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST
CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF
NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS
DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND
1/4SM VSBY.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW
IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2
MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
532 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
505 AM CST
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE
FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST
IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH
SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL
COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
322 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND
LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR
LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD
THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE
MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED.
SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING
STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A
LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950
HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT
AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON
STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS
STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER
TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE
IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59
1987 1975 1938 1938
WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55
1978 1975 1978 1938
THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52
1978 1956 1978 1956
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING.
* FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE
TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT
HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO
FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN
OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER
OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. S WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM CST
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30
KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-
ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
503 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow
improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon.
Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning
with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement
in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in
place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will
keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning
and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before
another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast
area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly
direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS
HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY
SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS
MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL
LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN
DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR
WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW
REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY
ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH
SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT AREA OF ST EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST IA TOWARD
KDSM WHILE LIFR VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA SINCE 10Z. EXPECT FG/BR TO BEGIN BURNING OFF
AFT 1430Z. STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AFT 16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING MOST AREAS AFT 17Z...MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. AFT 04Z MAY SEE STRATUS/BR REFORM
OVER THE AREA. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
525 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE
CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY
THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI
VSBY AT LAMONI.
NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY
NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH
SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW
POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY.
TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE
INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL
THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY ON...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE
DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
RAPIDLY ADVANCING AREA OF LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS REACHED KBRL
AND KMLI AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH AIRPORTS THROUGH 15Z.
BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT...AND EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KCID.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-
ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1044 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
14Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. 925MB STREAMLINES SHOW A
TEXTBOOK COL REGION CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES DRAGGING MILD AIR
INTO THE REGION (12Z 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 11C/13C AT APX/GRB
RESPECTIVELY). MID CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING NORTHWEST/
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD/EASTERN WISCONSIN. STILL
SOME LINGERING FOG HANGING TOUGH AROUND ISQ.
NO BIG ISSUES LOOKING AHEAD TO THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND OVER EASTERN
UPPER LIFT NORTH AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES AND MID LEVEL WINDS
BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL BE A WARM DAY EVEN WITH LIMITED
MIXING...HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W
COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT
RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE
N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE
MID ATLANTIC.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF
FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT.
TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE
LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE
SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL
UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH
TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S...
ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC
FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD...
WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW
SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE
DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW
MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN
LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S.
THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND
DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY
LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN
THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING
RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT
AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS
THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO
-5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE.
LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING
OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS
MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND
DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF
IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER
THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS
FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW
MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
631 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W
COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT
RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE
N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE
MID ATLANTIC.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF
FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT.
TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE
LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE
SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL
UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH
TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S...
ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC
FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD...
WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW
SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE
DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW
MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN
LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S.
THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND
DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY
LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN
THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING
RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT
AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS
THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO
-5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE.
LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING
OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS
MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND
DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF
IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER
THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS
FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT
LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW
MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER
THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W
COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT
RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE
N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL
RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE
MID ATLANTIC.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF
FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT.
TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD
FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE
LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE
SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE
IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL
UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH
TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S...
ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC
FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD...
WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW
SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE
DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW
MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN
LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S.
THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND
DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY
LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN
THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING
RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT
AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS
THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO
-5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE.
LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN
END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT
UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW
MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF
STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE
TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS.
ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND
THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY
TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER
CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM
NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING
STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW
IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB.
SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR
AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY.
S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING
THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT
MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED.
BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS
WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS
LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF
HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY.
EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
TODAY: VFR SKC. S WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 27 KTS AFTER 16Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SKC TO START...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS
TO MOVE IN AFTER 09Z. S WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND WILL CONT GUSTING
TO NEAR 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND
RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978
IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH.
NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008
HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING
STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND
LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.
INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRATUS/FOG CONT TO EXPAND NWD
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE MO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO KOMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT STAY E OF KOFK/KLNK. IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MRNG IF THESE CLOUDS GET INTO KOMA
BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND PUSHES THE CLOUDS EWD.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ADDITIONAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT AGAIN GUIDANCE IS
UNCERTAIN ON THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN LATER TAF CYCLES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
610 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR
BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN
MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF-
NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING
COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT
DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET
CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO
6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER
ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING
TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD
AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE
HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE
CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED
BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A
BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...
A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL
HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A
DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER
INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
(BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW
PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND
WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND
VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS
SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL
IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID-
HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND
ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING
TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING
ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 610 AM TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING
THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT
RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING WED... LASTING
UNTIL LATE WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN START TO DROP TO
IFR BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR
MUCH OF THU... PERHAPS REACHING VFR LATE. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW
MOVEMENT EASTWARD. 100KT JET SETS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT PROVIDING
DEEP VERTICAL FORCING. BETTER FORCING OCCURS OVER THE NW CWA THIS
EVENING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EASTERN UTAH. 700MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -4C OVER EASTERN UTAH BY 12Z FOR SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR
7000FT. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 8000FT AND ABOVE. THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7K TO 8K FEET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL ALL LEND THEMSELVES TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR AND RAP REALLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS BAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN IT FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST.
THESE MODELS NOT APPEARING TO TAKE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO ACCOUNT
THOUGH NAM/GFS LOOK LIKE THEY DO. EITHER WAY...EXPECT HIGH
ELEVATIONS TO SEE CONTINUED SNOWFALL WITH SOME LULLS FROM TIME TO
TIME. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING NRN
MTNS. THESE MTNS REALLY PREFER NW FLOW AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SW TO W FLOW SO SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IFFY THERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY OVERRIDE WIND DIRECTION AND PRODUCE WARNING AMT
SNOWFALL HOWEVER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. GFS HIGHLIGHTING A
DEFORMATION ZONE TO SET UP OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE NAM SHOWS NOTHING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS BECAUSE IF THE ZONE SETS UP...A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY
PRECIP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE DIVIDE BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE OVER. FOR FRIDAY...A QUICK WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM ID/MT
AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND FLATTOPS BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...EXPECT A RETURN TO SUN WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES.
VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY
REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!
TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACNW
AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PROBABLY SOME
SNOW. ANOTHER WINDY DAY POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER. NRN MTNS LOOK
FAVORED ATTM AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW FAVORING THAT AREA.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT STORM
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST TUE NOV 3 2015
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY TO 50
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TODAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE -TSRA...WHICH COULD GENERATE SUDDEN WIND
GUSTS.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 070-080 MSL WITH IFR
CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. MOUNTAINS BECOME
OBSCURED WITH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-007-
009-011-017>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-017.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-008-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ009-010-012-013-018-019.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-025-
027>029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF/JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under
the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over
Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and
persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up
east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around
where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models
depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night,
and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned
that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model
is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the
patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development
with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather
quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57
has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has
been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to
persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and
associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level
moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns
off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high
temperatures around 70 degrees.
Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a
strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This
system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the
California coast, which will eject toward the area starting
Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave
Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect
widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move
through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave
should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak
lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity
minimal.
The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with
near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high
pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western
U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have
temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week.
However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also
support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period
and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement
in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery,
but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing
in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be
patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus
lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not
get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of
the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly
flow with some variability under the ridge.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the
area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion
over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and
keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is
slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just
to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN
border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take
most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the
forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and
continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement
in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery,
but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing
in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be
patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus
lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not
get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of
the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly
flow with some variability under the ridge.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1103 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the
area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion
over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and
keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is
slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just
to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN
border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take
most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the
forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and
continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on
temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the
short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern
counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to
continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until
10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings
from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later
this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today
with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture
present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out
today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the
moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen
in soundings along and east of I-57.
Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more
pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the
I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the
clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where
soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon,
will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight
into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture.
So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense
fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the
area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid
and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way
to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the
lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds
linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river.
00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the
Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the
Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from
the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday
morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu
night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to
central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into
IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday
afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air
with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in
southeast IL.
An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a
period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles
possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday
night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost
possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in
the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks
like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with
WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and
temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s.
The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof
over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into
the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more
unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL
just beyond the day 7 forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow
improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon.
Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning
with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement
in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in
place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will
keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning
and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before
another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast
area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly
direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1202 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WITH LINGERING STRATOCU DECK ACRS GENERALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA...CHALLENGING TEMP FCST AT HAND FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE GRADIENT POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST-TO-
NORTHWEST WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE SUNNY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
CWA. STILL EXPECT THE SUNNY AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DESPITE WEAKER MIXING REGIME AND THERMAL ROBBING HIGHER
SFC DPTS THAN YESTERDAY. BUT AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL IL IF THEY DO
NOT CLEAR OUT MAY BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AND DECAY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT THEIR EFFECT ON TEMPERING HIGHS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AT THIS
TIME OF DAY. ..12..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE
CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY
THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI
VSBY AT LAMONI.
NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY
NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH
SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW
POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY.
TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE
INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL
THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY ON...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE
DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
CHALLENGING FCST WITH A WIDE VARIABILITY POSSIBLE WITHIN A RATHER
SMALL AREA OF THE TAF REGION. AREAS THAT HAD THE IFR TO LIFR
CLOUDS/FOG SUCH AS THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES MAY BE PRONE AGAIN
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE. SOME
OF THE NEW RUN HIRES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT OTHER MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG/LOW CLOUD DECK FIELDS WILL DEVELOP MORE TO THE WEST OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHICH COULD ALLOW CID AND DBQ TO
REMAIN MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING OR MAYBE WITH JUST SOME
LIGHTER MVFR FOG AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE SAME MODELS ALSO KEEPING
MLI AND DBQ VFR UNTIL MID WED MORNING WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SEEP INTO THE VCNTY FROM THE WEST. BUT AM WORRIED WITH THE
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE THAT AT LEAST BRL AND MLI MAY GET
NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL
KEEP THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE IDEA OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-11 KTS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF THEY CAN STAY 7-8 KTS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALSO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS
HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY
SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS
MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE
TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL
LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN
DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE
LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR
WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW
REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY
ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH
SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE
MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA
BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN
PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
DECENT MIXING WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE STRATUS FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT HOWEVER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE CWA I EXPECT LOW STRATUS/FOG TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE
UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT
10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH
MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL
DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS
NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW
CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY
DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES
IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY
THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40
MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80
TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60
ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70
GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50
LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD
OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN
AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE
EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED
CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND
950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO
USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE
MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER
MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS
SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM
NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS
WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR
SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS
LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND
THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN
CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4
KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING
A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING
AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN
COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL INDUCE A NE
WIND OFF THE LAKE AND COMBINE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT TO SUPPORT AN
INVERSION WHICH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE
DLH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70
INL 44 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70
BRD 51 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60
HYR 50 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70
ASX 46 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL AS
UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION
OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME
EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS
AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD
COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...
DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT
MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS
NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT
OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON
HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA.
FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS
THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY
NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN
CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY LIFR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
POCKETS OF IFR THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT A BROAD
SWATH FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO EASTERN TEXAS. SSE FLOW WILL BRING THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MN AND WESTERN WI. 12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD IFR/LIFR...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE LATER WITH SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IT MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE
EARLIER SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY. VISIBILITY SHOULD
GENERALLY BY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE SSE WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LITTLE RADIATIONAL COMPONENT.
KMSP...SKC EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SE WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. MIGHT BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15. MAIN ISSUE IS
IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIFR CEILINGS.
12Z MODELS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF IFR THAN THE 00Z/06Z MODELS...
AND CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH INDICATE THIS TREND IS CORRECT.
LOOKING AT 07Z OR SO FOR THIS TO DEVELOP...BUT THAT COULD VARY BY
A COUPLE HOURS. THE INVERSION WILL HELP KEEP IFR THROUGH WED
MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW.
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
FOCUSED ON CLOUD COVER FOR THIS UPDATE. CONCERNED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD...FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODELED CEILING...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM
NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...ARE INDICATING HUMID LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY RESULT IN OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER
MOVING INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. THOSE THREE SEEM TO CORRESPOND
PRETTY WELL TO WHERE THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL OVERCAST
LAYER OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO MY CONFIDENCE LIES WITH
THESE THREE MODELS. HOWEVER...THINK THE 4 KM NAM MAY BE TOO FAST
BRINGING THE CLOUD COVER IN...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA. THIS
SCENARIO MAY BE A RECIPE FOR FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS AREA...BUT WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS
THREAT WHEN MAKING UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE 4 KM NAM. THE MODEL IS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN RAPID SATURATION
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE 4 KM NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP
THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN
IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WHICH SATELLITE SHOWS STEADILY MOVING
NORTHWARD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
AT 08Z. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED TO BE BISECTING NE MN FROM
NW WI. SFC WIND WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT OVER NE MN. PATCHY FOG AND CIRRUS WAS OVER NW WI.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL DO ITS TYPICAL BENDING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE COOLER/DENSE AIRMASS WILL BE
FOUND WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LAKE. A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE LAKE AS A RESULT. WILL BE A
WARM DAY WITH STIFF WAA THROUGH THE DAY AND H85 TEMPS REACHING TO
NEAR 10C ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...TO THE TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST/WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND THE ONSET OF SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NE MN FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN THE VCNTY
OF THE WARM FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT CLIPS THIS AREA IN
THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT.
THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS AS A SECONDARY SFC
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOST SFC LOW. AS SUCH...WARM/MOIST AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON THE SW FLOW. WEAK PIECES
OF EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CHECK...EXCEPT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER NEAR A STALLED FRONT. A DRIZZLE SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS
SITUATION AND HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FORM. THIS IS SEEN IN THE QPF FIELDS OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS. THE ECMWF IS FAVORING MORE OF A SHOWER EVENT...BUT IS
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
BEYOND... WITH CHANCES OF NOVEMBER THUNDER IN THE CWA AS WELL AS
WINTRY MIXES AND SNOWFLAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
00Z THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... STACKED
FROM THE SFC TO 700MB MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF MINNESOTA... WITH
AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO COLORADO. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL LOFT IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT... WITH MIXING
RATIOS NEAR 8 G/KG IN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SPC SREF FCST
SOUNDING INDICATES THERE MAY BE MUCAPES NEAR 400 J/KG (WHICH
GENERALLY IS NOT HIGH... BUT IT IS A BIT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR) JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA AFTER 18Z. ALSO THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK
HAS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN IN THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY.
THEREFORE... HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SO THE
EASTERN CWA BASED ON THE GFS`S FCST BOUNDARY LAYERED INSTABILITY...
WHICH ENDED UP BEING A BIT WEST OF SPC`S OUTLOOK... WHICH INCLUDES
MAINLY HINCKLEY UP TO DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE... AND EAST TO
OUR NW WISCONSIN COUNTIES. BY 00Z FRIDAY... THE THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE... BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHLAND BY MID-DAY FRIDAY... AND
WILL HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY... ON THE ORDER OF 10-20
DEGREES. HOWEVER A NEW DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
BEHIND IT... AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE... RAIN ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW... THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO
SMALL TO MEASURE. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S. A CHANGE WILL COME SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM... AND SUNSHINE ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN...
NEARING HIGHS OF 50 AND LOWS NEAR 40.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF 11Z DUE TO LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL
FOG. THESE ANKLE-DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SHOULD HOLD STEADY AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT AFTER 15Z.
TEMPORARY VFR WILL COME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AS STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER... BUT DEVELOPING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 44 59 54 / 0 10 10 20
INL 50 44 56 44 / 0 20 20 40
BRD 63 53 63 48 / 0 10 10 30
HYR 65 51 64 54 / 0 10 10 20
ASX 59 43 63 54 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>143-146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for
a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus
clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the
area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be
dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile.
It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where
the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest
values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest
surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10
degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the
low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively
high surface dew points for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once
again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location
of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job
with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud
deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area,
into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier
fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck.
This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like
it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR
guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low
level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified
than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there
should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may
not be quite a persistent as today.
Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon
cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in
the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly
signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud
trends become more clear.
The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern
remains with the storm system approaching the region on
Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly
good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly
out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday
evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and
associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring
some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday,
but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday
night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front,
and deep moisture all interact over the region.
Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection
Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red
River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this
activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due
to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of
convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges
across the area during the late evening and overnight hours.
Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season
severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern
attm.
Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a
very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or
early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a
threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early
Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain
going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm.
Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the
Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool
Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in
the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing
another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The
return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with
W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to
migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into
the area for the start of the new work week.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2015
Visibilities should continue to gradually improve in UIN and the
St Louis metro area late this morning and this afternoon. Seeing
erosion of the stratus and fog west of UIN and west-southwest of
the St Louis metro area on the latest satellite images. Will
likely have a least a brief period of VFR conditions late this
afternoon as the shallow, thin stratus clouds scatter out due to
daytime heating, drying and mixing. Stratus and fog should
redevelop across much of the area late this evening and overnight
and continue through much of Wednesday morning. Weak sely surface
winds will continue on the western periphery of the surface
ridge.
Specifics for KSTL: Visibilities will continue to improve late
this morning and this afternoon with the cloud ceiling slowly
rising. It appears that the stratus clouds will likely scatter out
late this afternoon. Status and fog should redevelop late this
evening and overnight with abundant shallow surface/boundary layer
moisture. IFR conditions should improve to VFR conditions again
Wednesday afternoon as the s-sely surface wind strengthens to
around 8 kts.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 54 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30
Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30
Columbia 53 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50
Jefferson City 53 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50
Salem 55 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30
Farmington 54 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING
STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND
LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.
INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WITH AREAS OF IFR OR LIFR
CIGS POSSIBLE 06Z-15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD IN 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT
TIMES PRIOR TO 00Z AND AGAIN AFTER 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW
APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF
STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE
TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS.
ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND
THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER
DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY
TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER
CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM
NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING
STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW
IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB.
SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR
AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY.
S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING
THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT
MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED.
BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS
WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS
LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF
HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY.
EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
INTERESTING TAF PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST YES ESPECIALLY EAST OF KGRI AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION IN KGRI TAF. HAVE NOT WENT AS
PESSIMISSTIC WITH KEAR JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND VSBYS
MAY DROP ON EDGE OF STRATUS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DID NOT MENTION WIND SHEAR...BUT IF WINDS DO
DROP OFF THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND
RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978
HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978
IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH.
NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD
GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008
HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN
DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10
KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS
HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL
WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT
YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER
TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES
KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. FOR SITES KBIS AND KJMS LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF SITES KISN AND KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND BESIDES
A FEW SCATTERED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MOST ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
STAY DRY THROUGH THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...MM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS
RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT
BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED.
SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT
IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE
THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND
COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS
FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB
PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY
COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS
DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD
BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A
VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS
SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE
STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH
DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY
DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX
WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW
FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS
COULD FALL TO NEAR MINIMUMS IN SOME PLACES. BEST PROBABILITY FOR
TIMING WOULD FALL INTO THE 09Z-15Z RANGE. LOW CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS
ARE HANGING TOUGH AT THIS HOUR...SO THE LOW CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC