Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/03/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE REGION TOMORROW...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY REBUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... PRE-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE STARTED INCREASING THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY SINCE SUNSET. WINDS AT EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL ALREADY GUSTING TO 35KTS WITH SOME REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS TO THE NORTH BUT ARE STARTING TO TURN AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH DUST ALREADY REPORTED ACROSS A HIGH-IMPACT TRAVEL CORRIDOR...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE INTO SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...WITH A STEEPENED POST FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING GUSTY WEST WINDS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH FROPA...THOUGH REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE COLORADO RIVER BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE DELINEATOR OF OUR CURRENT WARM AIRMASS...AND A FAR COOLER AUTUMN AIRMASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE STEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA...ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE (ABOUT 8 G/KG) IN THE H8-H7 LAYER. IN ADDITION...THIS FRONTAL RIBBON OF SATURATION WILL BE TOPPED BY A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND THE TEMPORAL DURATION OF FRONTALLY FORCED ASCENT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT PUSH CLOUD DEPTHS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SHOWERS. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLD VERY LIGHT SHOWERS (SPRINKLES) AT LOWER ELEVATION...AND BETTER CHANCES OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. BY AND LARGE...THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT A GREATER PORTION OF CNTRL ARIZONA WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN COLD CORE AND PV ANOMALY TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE H8-H7 MOISTURE VALUES WILL DECREASE CLOSER TO 4- 5G/KG...ADVECTION OF H7 TEMPERATURES NEAR -6C AND H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -21C JUXTAPOSED WITH BETTER CYCLONIC JET SUPPORT WILL AID IN SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING). CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING (MUCAPES UP TO 100 J/KG)...THOUGH GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE. ALSO GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...NOT EVERY COMMUNITY WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL AND SREF MEANS SUGGEST A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES (FROM 0.00 TO OVER ONE HALF INCH). HAVE MADE SOME TARGETED INCREASES TO POPS BASED ON ENSEMBLE OUTPUT DURING THIS WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RAPIDLY BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... WINDS WILL RETAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT BUT QUICKLY TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 8-10KFT. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG IN THE 12-15KFT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZE/BLOWING DUST ARE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A RATHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25 TO 40 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL VERY LIMITED (MOST TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS). FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN THOUGH NOT YIELDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ033. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...LEINS/MO/PERCHA AVIATION...LEINS FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR PERIODICALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. DRY WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN COASTAL AREAS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO STANDARD TIME BUT ARE SIMILAR OVER MOST INLAND AREAS. OVERALL...WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY 70S WITHIN ABOUT 3-5 MILES THE COAST AND 80S TO LOCALLY NEAR 90 IN THE VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND SOME FOG SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SO-CAL LATE MONDAY...WITH PRECIP LIKELY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE/SBD MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE EVENING...BASED ON DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILES. THE MOISTURE STILL ONLY GOES UP TO ABOUT 800 MB IN MOST AREAS...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN MODERATE RAIN. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE 1/4 INCH OR LESS AT THE COAST...BUT 1/2 TO LOCALLY ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL WRF SHOWING DECENT PRECIP IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN THAT RANGE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS THERE. COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT AS 700 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 C...BUT...THAT WILL BE MOSTLY AFTER THE BEST MOISTURE IS HERE...SO SNOWFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE ABOUT 6000- 6500 FEET...PROBABLY ONLY 1-2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO THE COLD CORE...BUT AGAIN THAT WILL BE AFTER MOST OF THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A PERIOD OF MODERATE STRONG WINDS DUE TO STRENGTHENING MSLP/THERMAL/HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE...WILL OCCUR FROM THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS EAST/NORTHEAST TO THE DESERT FOOTHILLS...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE LINGERING TUE/WED...BUT PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT THEN AND MOSTLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY DUE TO BEST OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES AND BEST TRACK OF THE WAVES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE THE LOWEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH A LOT OF 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 40 AT BIG BEAR EITHER TUE OR WED. SOME 30S COULD OCCUR IN COLDEST VALLEYS...SUCH AS RAMONA OR CORONA...STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WED...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND WE ENTER A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME RIDGING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT RIDGES. TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND...BUT NOTHING EXTREME. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR...BUT THERMAL SUPPORT SO FAR LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAT LOCALLY GUSTY MODERATE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS/COASTAL FOOTHILLS. && .AVIATION... 011730Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH INLAND BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. CIGS MAY INITIALLY BE RELATIVELY LOW...AROUND 400-700 FT MSL...WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS OF 2 SM OR LESS POSSIBLE AT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. VIS WILL FALL BELOW 1/2 SM AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES APPEARS TO BE 06Z TO 10Z. BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS PUSHING 10-25 MILES INLAND BY 14Z MONDAY. BKN-OVC CIGS NEAR 2000 FT MSL WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER DESERT SLOPES AFTER 10Z MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED A KPSP OR KTRM. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS..SKC-FEW WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... 930 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT AND GUSTS TO 34 KT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FT AND STEEP WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED ACTIVITY OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MAXWELL AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 936 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and wet weather starts today as a Pacific storm system moves inland. It will bring the first significant snow event of the season to the high Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... Overnight crew upgraded the winter storm watch to a warning early this morning for 10 PM tonight thru 10 PM Monday for western slope of the northern Sierra Nevada above 7000 feet. Prefrontal band of precip dropping south across central portions of the area with leading edge from around Blue Canyon SE to Santa Rosa. Most of returns are elevated with only trace amounts to a few hundredths being reported. Have adjusted POPs accordingly a little further south this morning. Snow levels will hover around 9,000 feet for majority of the day so most of precip will fall as rain today. Rest of the forecast largely on track for tonight into Monday so not expecting major changes this morning. Bulk of precip still expected tonight into early Monday as main front moves through. Previous discussion follows. Will have more detailed update this afternoon. CEO .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Today, NorCal transitions to colder & wetter weather as a winter storm moves inland and taps into the atmospheric river. Radar imagery at 4 am showed a wide band of showers impacting the Northern CA Coastal counties that is moving eastward and nearing the Coastal range. Models all still on track with this system and have not made any major changes to this storm`s forecast. Winter Storm Watch remains in effect tonight through Monday night with the brunt of the storm occurring Monday when snow levels will be notably lower (between 5000-6000 ft). Snow amounts still look to be 4-8 inches near pass levels with up to a foot across the highest peaks. Earlier runs of the HRRR showed that rain wouldn`t reach the Interstate 80 corridor until around 4 pm today. However, the latest HRRR run indicates that a secondary band of rain could track into the I-80 corridor by late morning while the main band moves into far NorCal this morning. Will pass onto the day shift to monitor the arrival timing this morning. Daytime highs today will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for the valley, 50s to mid 60s in higher terrain. Colder airmass expected after midnight tonight so much of today`s precipitaton will fall as rain. Snow levels will start around 9000 feet, then dropping down to around 5000 feet on Monday. The major question is when the snow levels will drop to 7500 feet, around the Donner Pass level on I80 and Echo Summit on Highway 50. If it takes until daybreak Monday, much of the precipitation may end up in the form of rain in those areas. High mountain peaks will likely see a foot or even more of snow. The peak snow intensity is expected Monday morning. More showery precipitation is expected by afternoon, with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Snow showers may drop to around 5000 feet, though accumulations to those levels are expected to be light. Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday into early Wednesday. A major concern is recently burned areas (past 3 years), especially on the west slope of the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, such as the Butte Fire. The main band of precipitation could drop 1 to 3 inches on these locations. Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon could add additional locally heavy rain to this, though when and where these could be remains uncertain. People living and working in those areas should be aware of the potential for debris slides on Monday. Stayed tuned for updates to the forecast. Valley locations could see around 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain, potentially more in convection. Drivers on Monday should be aware of slick roads, especially if wet leaves are in the area. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday) Dry conditions are expected from Thursday through the end of the week with high pressure ridging over the southwest U.S. A shortwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest to the north on Thursday will keep high temperatures down to just a little below normal. Upper ridge then amplifies along the west coast Friday and Saturday warming daytime highs to a little above normal. Extended models showing possible break down of the upper ridge by the end of the extended period as next upper trough is forecast to start pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Northern forecast area could see some precipitation by next Sunday while the rest of the forecast area remains dry with near normal daytime temperatures. && .AVIATION... Frontal band sagging southward into Norcal this morning. VFR Tafs sites this morning becoming MVFR northern Sacramento valley after 18z and then MVFR southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin after about 21z under clouds and occasional showers. Southerly winds to 15 knots except higher over Sierra ridges. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Monday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
510 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH BAY LATER TODAY THAT WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:49 AM PST SUNDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.20" TO 1.60" ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY. WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INITIAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SPEED UP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE BAY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA EARLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AS MUCH AS 1.00" OVER THE COASTAL RANGES. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS INLAND LATE MONDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. LOCALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORT- WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING OTHERWISE METAR OBS REPORTING VFR. INITIAL MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING S-SE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOLING EVIDENT ON THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER AND HINTS OF COOLING SHOWING UP ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER. 12Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION THAT`S MORE ELEVATED. MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL SWEEP S-SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS BUT A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH WIND THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE. WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE WET/WINDY WEATHER. BASED ON RECENT GFS MODEL FORECAST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS BY 06Z SUNDAY NORTH BAY THEN REACHING A KSJC-KLVK-KSAC LINE 10Z-12Z SUNDAY. VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. VFR. MVFR CIGS WET WEATHER ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS BEGINNING APPROX 03Z THIS EVENING WITH GRADUALLY STEADIER RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOCALIZED IFR DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. GENERAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z TODAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS SHOWERS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...AS OF 3:49 AM PST SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PICK UP IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST REACHING THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 446 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and wet weather starts today as a Pacific storm system moves inland. It will bring the first significant snow event of the season to the high Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... Today, NorCal transitions to colder & wetter weather as a winter storm moves inland and taps into the atmospheric river. Radar imagery at 4 am showed a wide band of showers impacting the Northern CA Coastal counties that is moving eastward and nearing the Coastal range. Models all still on track with this system and have not made any major changes to this storm`s forecast. Winter Storm Watch remains in effect tonight through Monday night with the brunt of the storm occurring Monday when snow levels will be notably lower (between 5000-6000 ft). Snow amounts still look to be 4-8 inches near pass levels with up to a foot across the highest peaks. Earlier runs of the HRRR showed that rain wouldn`t reach the Interstate 80 corridor until around 4 pm today. However, the latest HRRR run indicates that a secondary band of rain could track into the I-80 corridor by late morning while the main band moves into far NorCal this morning. Will pass onto the day shift to monitor the arrival timing this morning. Daytime highs today will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for the valley, 50s to mid 60s in higher terrain. Colder airmass expected after midnight tonight so much of today`s precipitaton will fall as rain. .Previous Discussion...Snow levels will start around 9000 feet, then dropping down to around 5000 feet on Monday. The major question is when the snow levels will drop to 7500 feet, around the Donner Pass level on I80 and Echo Summit on Highway 50. If it takes until daybreak Monday, much of the precipitation may end up in the form of rain in those areas. High mountain peaks will likely see a foot or even more of snow. The peak snow intensity is expected Monday morning. More showery precipitation is expected by afternoon, with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Snow showers may drop to around 5000 feet, though accumulations to those levels are expected to be light. Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday into early Wednesday. A major concern is recently burned areas (past 3 years), especially on the west slope of the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, such as the Butte Fire. The main band of precipitation could drop 1 to 3 inches on these locations. Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon could add additional locally heavy rain to this, though when and where these could be remains uncertain. People living and working in those areas should be aware of the potential for debris slides on Monday. Stayed tuned for updates to the forecast. Valley locations could see around 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain, potentially more in convection. Drivers on Monday should be aware of slick roads, especially if wet leaves are in the area. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday) Dry conditions are expected from Thursday through the end of the week with high pressure ridging over the southwest U.S. A shortwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest to the north on Thursday will keep high temperatures down to just a little below normal. Upper ridge then amplifies along the west coast Friday and Saturday warming daytime highs to a little above normal. Extended models showing possible break down of the upper ridge by the end of the extended period as next upper trough is forecast to start pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Northern forecast area could see some precipitation by next Sunday while the rest of the forecast area remains dry with near normal daytime temperatures. && .AVIATION... Frontal band sagging southward into Norcal this morning. VFR Tafs sites this morning becoming MVFR northern Sacramento valley after 18z and then MVFR southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin after about 21z under clouds and occasional showers. Southerly winds to 15 knots except higher over Sierra ridges. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .AVIATION... E TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A W TO SW GULF BREEZE DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT APF. SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST POSSIBLY, BUT NOT NEEDED IN THE APF TAF. LIKE THIS MORNING, BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAWN MONDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015/ UPDATE... HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE GULF BREEZE LATER TODAY. THE HRRR AND GFS WERE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH QPF YESTERDAY, SO CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD HANDLE WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST SUN NOV 1/ AVIATION... LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. /MOLLEDA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/ DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL. /GREGORIA MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 87 77 86 / 10 10 10 10 MIAMI 77 88 76 87 / 0 10 10 10 NAPLES 74 89 73 88 / 10 20 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...13/SI LONG TERM....13/SI AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
846 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE GULF BREEZE LATER TODAY. THE HRRR AND GFS WERE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH QPF YESTERDAY, SO CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD HANDLE WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST SUN NOV 1/ AVIATION... LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. /MOLLEDA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/ DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL. /GREGORIA MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 10 0 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 77 / 10 10 10 10 MIAMI 87 77 88 76 / 10 0 10 10 NAPLES 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...21/KM LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
634 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .AVIATION... LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. /MOLLEDA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/ DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL. /GREGORIA MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 10 0 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 77 / 10 10 10 10 MIAMI 87 77 88 76 / 10 0 10 10 NAPLES 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
336 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FORCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL. /GREGORIA && .AVIATION... FROM 06Z ISSUANCE... SFC AND LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A BRIEF BKN CEILING AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, BUT ALL IN ALL A DRY FORECAST WITH PREVAILING VFR. SW SEA BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN AT NAPLES/KAPF AROUND 18Z. /MOLLEDA && .MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 10 0 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 77 / 10 10 10 10 MIAMI 87 77 88 76 / 10 0 10 10 NAPLES 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Already updated forecast for rest of the night. Dense fog and very low clouds are advecting into the area from the south, spreading north/west and east some. Based on HiRes models this will continue to spread out across most of central and east central...and southeast Illinois rest of the night and into tomorrow morning...during the morning commute. Advisory does not include PIA or BMI, or northern areas of central IL, but will be closely monitoring the area as it spreads north to see how north it could get. HiRes models suggest it will cover all of the CWA, but unsure at this time. If confidence increases, then another update and an addition to the advisory will be needed at some point. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints, the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest. Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night progresses with observation of the crossover drop. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends, followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated precipitation. Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear. Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage. The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1 inch of rain in most areas. Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon. Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though, so a slow warming trend is expected next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Lots of dense fog and stratus blanketed southern IL last night and believe that will be the case again tonight, but further north, effecting all the TAF sites. Stratus in southern IL is forecast by multiple models to advect northward into the area and blanket all TAF sites this evening to overnight. Main question is how low will the vis go and what the timing will be. Thinking is that stratus will advect northward and effect SPI, then DEC, then PIA and CMI, then BMI last...thinking that the stratus will move north and then expand some to the west and east through the evening. Main question is vis. Winds will be very light again tonight, to even with cloud cover, believe dense fog will likely at SPI/DEC/CMI and then close at PIA and BMI. Timing for the dense fog should hold off til after midnight at all sites, but will monitor over next couple of hours to see timing and extent. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ040>044- 047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
543 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints, the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest. Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night progresses with observation of the crossover drop. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends, followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated precipitation. Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear. Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage. The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1 inch of rain in most areas. Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon. Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though, so a slow warming trend is expected next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Lots of dense fog and stratus blanketed southern IL last night and believe that will be the case again tonight, but further north, effecting all the TAF sites. Stratus in southern IL is forecast by multiple models to advect northward into the area and blanket all TAF sites this evening to overnight. Main question is how low will the vis go and what the timing will be. Thinking is that stratus will advect northward and effect SPI, then DEC, then PIA and CMI, then BMI last...thinking that the stratus will move north and then expand some to the west and east through the evening. Main question is vis. Winds will be very light again tonight, to even with cloud cover, believe dense fog will likely at SPI/DEC/CMI and then close at PIA and BMI. Timing for the dense fog should hold off til after midnight at all sites, but will monitor over next couple of hours to see timing and extent. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of I-70 to address this concern. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low 70s and light southerly winds. By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low 70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday. Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest model trends Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight and moving northward. Not very confident with this and sunshine today should have mixed out the moisture from the recent rain, so will continue to hold off mentioning of this and take a closer look before next package. Winds should be southerly to southwesterly through the forecast period with speeds around 10kts or less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of I-70 to address this concern. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low 70s and light southerly winds. By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low 70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday. Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest model trends Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the 30s. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight. Could be something to watch in case it oozes northward into central Illinois, but abundant sunshine today should help mix out the moisture from the recent rain, so will hold off on any mention this far north for now. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Earlier fog has rapidly eroded over the last 1-2 hours, and the lingering fog along I-70 has been coming up recently as well. That area is along the fringe of the cirrus shield associated with the southern stream shortwave, and that area should remain partly sunny through the afternoon as clouds continue to stream northeast. The remainder of the forecast area will be mainly sunny, with a bit of increase in cirrus late from the northwest. Updated forecast was sent mainly to address the end of the fog. Hourly temperatures were adjusted as well, but the overall high was generally on track with highs 65-70, warmest toward Jacksonville. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning. Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our southwest counties early this morning. What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface high pressure over the Ozarks of SW MO to move into WV this evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up to around 10 mph. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more prevalent over IN/KY during that time. Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg. 00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more similar 00Z ECMWF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles. Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine, with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight. Could be something to watch in case it oozes northward into central Illinois, but abundant sunshine today should help mix out the moisture from the recent rain, so will hold off on any mention this far north for now. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
926 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Earlier fog has rapidly eroded over the last 1-2 hours, and the lingering fog along I-70 has been coming up recently as well. That area is along the fringe of the cirrus shield associated with the southern stream shortwave, and that area should remain partly sunny through the afternoon as clouds continue to stream northeast. The remainder of the forecast area will be mainly sunny, with a bit of increase in cirrus late from the northwest. Updated forecast was sent mainly to address the end of the fog. Hourly temperatures were adjusted as well, but the overall high was generally on track with highs 65-70, warmest toward Jacksonville. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning. Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our southwest counties early this morning. What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface high pressure over the Ozarks of SW MO to move into WV this evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up to around 10 mph. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more prevalent over IN/KY during that time. Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg. 00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more similar 00Z ECMWF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles. Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine, with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Areas of LIFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible through 14z, especially along the I-74 corridor sites. The combination of abundant low level moisture from yesterday`s rainfall and a clear sky has led to some patchy dense fog at PIA and BMI with a further expansion east and south possible over the next few hours. Any fog should quickly dissipate between 14 and 15z as drier air advects into the region. Once that occurs, we expect VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast period. Surface flow will be out of the southwest at 9 to 14 kts today with winds expected to back more into a south direction this evening with speeds of 10 kts or less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
514 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning. Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our southwest counties early this morning. What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface high pressure over the Ozarks of sw MO to move into WV this evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up to around 10 mph. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more prevalent over IN/KY during that time. Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg. 00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more similar 00Z ECWMF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles. Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine, with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Areas of LIFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible through 14z, especially along the I-74 corridor sites. The combination of abundant low level moisture from yesterday`s rainfall and a clear sky has led to some patchy dense fog at PIA and BMI with a further expansion east and south possible over the next few hours. Any fog should quickly disspate between 14 and 15z as drier air advects into the region. Once that occurs, we expect VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast period. Surface flow will be out of the southwest at 9 to 14 kts today with winds expected to back more into a south direction this evening with speeds of 10 kts or less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning. Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our southwest counties early this morning. What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface high pressure over the Ozarks of sw MO to move into WV this evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up to around 10 mph. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more prevalent over IN/KY during that time. Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg. 00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more similar 00Z ECWMF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles. Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine, with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 Lower clouds continue to move across the area and should be east of all TAF sites by 09z. Thinking is that PIA will just have cirrus to start, SPI/BMI will see lower MVFR clouds around 1.8kft for about an hour and then just cirrus, DEC through about 08z and then CMI til about 09z. With all the lower level moisture around from the rain today, believe once clouds clear, light fog is possible at all sites. At PIA/SPI/BMI, will have the light fog in the main body of the TAFs. At DEC and CMI, will just have TEMPO group. With wind speeds just under 10kts, think fog will be patchy as well, so only going with 3sm at all sites. Skies should also become clear toward morning and last through tomorrow and into the evening. Light fog should dissipate around 15-16z at all sites. Winds will be less than 10kts through the TAF period and remain westerly to southwesterly. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 Rain is quickly moving east and based on radar and observations, rain is only in extreme eastern and southeast IL but will be gone in next couple of hours. Small break in the clouds underneath the higher stuff will effect the area temporarily but clouds should remain over western parts of the area til just after midnight, then over the eastern half of the area through early morning. Believe light fog is also possible with where areas see some clearing, but winds will remain just below 10mph so fog should remain light. Will be making some adjustments to pops/wx in the forecast and be sending out an update shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 Main shortwave was moving across southeast Iowa and northern Missouri early this afternoon. Convection over the lower Mississippi Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last few hours. Back edge of the rain shield now generally along the Illinois River, and the short-range models have been fairly consistent with drying out most areas west of I-55 by sunset and the eastern CWA by 10 pm. Refinements in the hourly precipitation grids have taken this into account, and have gone with a dry forecast after midnight. Some concern remains with the fog potential. Latest RAP and HRRR continues to advertise a moist layer of about 1,000 feet off the surface underneath an inversion, and shows a rather expansive area of dense fog mainly along and west of the Illinois River, where rainfall from the current system has been in the 1/2 to 1 inch range. The RAP humidity plots seem to be running a bit fast with the clearing, as the AWIPS timing tool has the clearing line coming into the western CWA toward 11 pm or so. If the winds stay up a bit, this could keep the fog from getting out of hand, but have added a mention of patchy fog for now west of I-55 after midnight. Evening shift can make adjustments if it appears the clearing is coming in faster than expected, which would increase the odds of fog formation. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. The faster departure of that low to the east will help usher in much drier air aloft. Skies should become sunny across our entire forecast area on Sunday, but some patchy morning fog could delay that for areas northwest of the Illinois river. There is potential for locally dense fog around sunrise, but winds could prevent that if they remain up late tonight. Have included patchy fog early Sunday morning for now, to trend that into the forecast. Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties toward Jacksonville. A southern stream upper level low progressing from eastern Texas toward Virginia on Monday will push a shield of precip close to southern IL, but we expect to remain dry as the feature departs to the East Coast Monday night. The overall result will be upper level ridging developing across IL by late Monday afternoon, with rising heights and warmer temps Monday. Highs should climb into the lower 70s in most areas. The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Tues and Wed under a persistent SW flow aloft and southerly surface winds. Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s both days. The long wave trough in the western states will shift east over the Rockies on Wed night, then eject a surface low toward Illinois on Thursday. Rain chances will increase from west to east during the day, with likely chances of rain Thursday night into Friday, as low pressure and a cold front pass across Illinois. Showers could linger Friday night behind the front, but most areas should return to dry conditions for Saturday. Much cooler air will arrive behind that system, with temperatures returning to near normal. Temps on Friday will be steady or falling in the afternoon as NW winds crank up. Despite increasing sunshine on Saturday, highs should remain in the mid 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 Lower clouds continue to move across the area and should be east of all TAF sites by 09z. Thinking is that PIA will just have cirrus to start, SPI/BMI will see lower MVFR clouds around 1.8kft for about an hour and then just cirrus, DEC through about 08z and then CMI til about 09z. With all the lower level moisture around from the rain today, believe once clouds clear, light fog is possible at all sites. At PIA/SPI/BMI, will have the light fog in the main body of the TAFs. At DEC and CMI, will just have TEMPO group. With wind speeds just under 10kts, think fog will be patchy as well, so only going with 3sm at all sites. Skies should also become clear toward morning and last through tomorrow and into the evening. Light fog should dissipate around 15-16z at all sites. Winds will be less than 10kts through the TAF period and remain westerly to southwesterly. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... LONG TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER. STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO NOVEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 245 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL BE OUR LAST WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOST AREAS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE EURO INDICATES CAPES UP TO 400 J/KG. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY TOO...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN DRY AND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEW EURO INDICATES PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE DAY 7. BUT OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS AND KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY COOLING TO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING AND COOLING TO THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MAINLY VFR. BUT BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MAY KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT KBMG AND KHUF... DO NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH UP TO 5 KNOTS MONDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....JH AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER. STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO NOVEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MAINLY VFR. BUT BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MAY KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT KBMG AND KHUF... DO NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH UP TO 5 KNOTS MONDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER. STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO NOVEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT THEN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SITES TODAY BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT KIND AND KBMG...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF OFF AND ON MVFR STRATUS TO START OUT BUT THEN EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z. AT KHUF AND KLAF COULD SEE LOWER DROPS BEFORE DAYBREAK IF THEY CLEAR OUT BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
606 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER. STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO NOVEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 548 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT THEN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SITES TODAY BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT KIND AND KBMG...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF OFF AND ON MVFR STRATUS TO START OUT BUT THEN EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z. AT KHUF AND KLAF COULD SEE LOWER DROPS BEFORE DAYBREAK IF THEY CLEAR OUT BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER. STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO NOVEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MVFR CEILINGS 012-015...WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING THESE LOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT NEAR THAT TIME. SURFACE WINDS 230-260 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER. STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO NOVEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST QUICK BUT WARM SW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT...WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING. MEANWHILE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATE SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. SUPERBLEND BLEEDS LOW CHC POPS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE....HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUPERBLEND ALSO KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME. MVFR CEILINGS 012-015...WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL AND LIGHT DRIZZLE EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING THESE LOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT NEAR THAT TIME. SURFACE WINDS 230-260 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT THE LOCAL AREA WAS LODGED IN BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP THE OH RVR VALLEY...AND A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST- NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDULATING FROM ACRS NORTHERN NEB...THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND OVER INTO NORTHEASTERN WI. DECENT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FULL INSOLATION MAKING THE MOST OF HIGH TEMP POSSIBILITY AND SFC WIND GUSTS WITH DEEP MIXING. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WERE INDICATING DIGGING WEST COAST L/W TROF HELPING ENHANCE BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST ACRS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 TONIGHT...WHILE THE DVN CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MN/WEST WI... MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS IF SOME OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT FORMED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF MO LAST NIGHT CAN SEEP FURTHER NORTH IN ONGOING LLVL SOUTHERLIES AND MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM AND ARW ARE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS POTENTIAL...BUT ARE ALSO OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RIGHT NOW OVER CENTRAL MO ATTM. FEEL THAT BESIDES SOME UPPER JET STREAK INDUCED OCCASIONAL PASSING CIRRUS ACRS THE NORTH...MOST OF THE DVN CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY LOW CLOUD/FOG FREE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SOUTHERN NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND PATCHY FOG IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE AM. WITH THE SOUTH BREEZE MAINTAINING AT LEAST 5 KTS AFTER DARK...WILL GO WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TUESDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUGGEST A WEAKER MIXING DAY TUE THAN MON AND WARM WEDGE ALOFT REALLY ACTING LIKE A CAP. WEAK MIXING UNDER CONTINUING BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THUS DESPITE SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES...WILL PLAY IT MORE CONSERVATIVELY AND GO WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. BUT IF THE LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO THE EXTENT PROJECTED AND HIGHER MIXING/SFC WINDS OCCUR...COULD ALSO SEE THE SCENARIO OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN. WILL KEEP THE CLIMATE SECTION WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD AND 4TH FOR REFERENCE. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ROCKIES SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE FORM OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITH STRONG FORCING. THE GFS/ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM A BIT SO I HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN THE EAST WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE IN THE WEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW (MORE CLOUDS) TO THE LOWER 70S SE (LESS CLOUDS). THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET PULLS PWAT`S OF OVER AN INCH INTO THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG BUT CAPES ARE MINIMAL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAIN ENDS FRIDAY MORNING WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S NW. THE RECENT WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL END ABRUPTLY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...IN THE 50S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. BUILDINGS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP GRIDS DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD SMALL POPS IF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ..HAASE.. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CHALLENGE/CONCERN WITH 00Z TAFS. KEEPING AN EYE ON AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG FROM AROUND THE ST LOUIS METRO EAST AND SOUTH EARLY THIS EVE. 100-500M VWP WIND FIELDS VEERED TO SSW DIRECTION CURRENTLY... AND GENERALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN SO THUS BELIEVE WHILE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH THAT BASED ON THIS WIND DIRECTION MUCH OF THE STRATUS WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN IL OVERNIGHT. RAP AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STRATUS MAY FORM OVER WESTERN MO OVERNIGHT AND IF THIS DOES IT WOULD HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING SOME OF TERMINALS BASED ON SSW WINDS. HOWEVER... RAP/NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE ON MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE... TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH FOR ANY MENTION... THUS HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS SHIFTS GENERALLY VFR FORECAST FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND OB TRENDS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3... MOLINE.........77 IN 1938 CEDAR RAPIDS...75 IN 1964 DUBUQUE........73 IN 2008 BURLINGTON.....78 IN 1964 RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 4... MOLINE.........77 IN 1978 CEDAR RAPIDS...73 IN 1978 DUBUQUE........72 IN 1978 BURLINGTON.....76 IN 1978 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...HAASE AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL CITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15 PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH. THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1118 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK AS ZONAL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
413 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL CITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15 PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH. THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 413 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING...PARTICULARLY AT KMCK. GUSTS 18-22KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
154 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL CITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15 PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH. THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS AROUND 7-8KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z. FROM 18Z-22Z WINDS MAY GUST 15-20KTS FROM THE WEST/WEST- SOUTHWEST BEFORE BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REDUCING SPEED A BIT AFTER 23Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
318 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE REGION WAS UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER. A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN TX. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING BY IN SW FLOW ABOVE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE THE PERIOD...THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ERODING ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO END THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A SFC WAVE WILL TRACK BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL GET LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE NO FURTHER NORTHWEST AND THE 12Z NAM SHARPENING UP THE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING A BIT HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OPTED TO SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT IN POPS FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH LEFT THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...AND GENERALLY KEPT THE I 64 CORRIDOR NORTH DRY. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD EXPERIENCE FOG FORMATION. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WE WILL BE LOCKED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS QUICKLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAITING TO BE ENERGIZED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PROLONG...OR REDEVELOP...RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HANG ONTO A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS LED TO SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SOUTHERN 4 TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR WAS OBSERVED FURTHER NORTHWEST AT SYM. OUTSIDE OF SOME CHANCES FOR FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AT SYM...MAINLY VFR SHOULD PERSIST. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS DRY OUT ALL BUT VERY NEAR THE SURFACE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...SO SOME DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. BY AROUND 15Z...CIGS SHOULD AVERAGE MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 307 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)... Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the 60s across the area. For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this evening. For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley. Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge, moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week. Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night. The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture. However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution. Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping back into the 30s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf and a stubborn low-level inversion is keeping IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings in place at BWG while SDF/LEX lie on the fringe of this boundary and as of 17z, have begun to lift/scatter out some. Very dry air is above this inversion, so there is above average confidence that SDF/LEX will remain out of the low clouds through the aftenoon. Main concern is fog potential tonight as guidance trends toward a narrow band of fog forming on the northern edge of the high cloud shield. Where exactly this sets up remains uncertain though pretty much all of the guidance hints at it. The boundary layer conditions look favorable for fog as well, with light winds and plenty of residual moisture in place. Trended the TAFs toward this scenario. If it looks like the high clouds will be east of SDF/LEX overnight, then IFR or worse conditions will be possible. At BWG, plan on low- end or IFR conditions through the period, dropping to near LIFR overnight as moisture continues to pool within the low-level inversion. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........ZBT Long Term.........AMS Aviation..........ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
115 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. AN AREA OF DRIZZLE IS STILL INDICATED SOUTHEAST OF JKL AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSED THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE 60S IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE LINGER IN THE 50S. THE PREVIOUS MAX T OF MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH AND LOW 60S GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE REGION...MAINLY NEARER TO THE VA BORDER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SOME DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING NEAR KJKL AND HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED NEAR LOST CREEK IN BREATHITT COUNTY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN RATHER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR THIS MOISTURE TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR IT TO OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. CLOUDS PERSIST AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FURTHER LOWERING OF MAX T MAY BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LET THE GOING FORECAST CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE AN AREA OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS WELL...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POISED TO EXIT ALREADY THIS MORNING. A STILL LINGERING AND STRONG LL JET SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. UPSTREAM FOR TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW OVER TX BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE. QUITE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGING THE DEFORMATION ZONE FAR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY KEEPS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BRING POPS BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THERE IN LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE SHIELD OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN PRETTY EXTENSIVE ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...HAVE LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA PUTTING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A WAA SITUATION AGAIN AND AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS FOR MONDAY A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALL DEPICT AN OPENING TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THESE LATTER MODELS WAS FAVORED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH...BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE THEN WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD KENTUCKY. THIS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST FASTEST IN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GFS LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND UNLIKE THE MUCH SLOWER AND OUT OF SYNCH GEM. THE GEM WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS A RESULT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SERVICEABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ACCORDINGLY...THE SYSTEM/S TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH WEAKENING ENERGY INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH BY THAT NIGHT AS HEIGHTS GENTLY BOTTOM OUT BENEATH A FAIRLY FLAT TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE CR GRID BLEND TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT PRETTY WELL. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SHEARED OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SHOWERS DRY UP. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE FOR MUCH OF THE TIME LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WARM UP EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SHOULD ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP... BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF...KENTUCKY KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TO STAY DRY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. ALSO...TWEAKED THE POPS ON SATURDAY TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINATIVE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS LED TO SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SOUTHERN 4 TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR WAS OBSERVED FURTHER NORTHWEST AT SYM. OUTSIDE OF SOME CHANCES FOR FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AT SYM...MAINLY VFR SHOULD PERSIST. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS DRY OUT ALL BUT VERY NEAR THE SURFACE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...SO SOME DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. BY AROUND 15Z...CIGS SHOULD AVERAGE MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1217 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 953 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015 Forecast into the afternoon hours remains on track as moisture trapped within a shallow but steep inversion is keeping low clouds/stratus around. Morning fog has mostly burned off per latest observations. 01.12z ILN sounding does show a significant dry air layer just above the inversion...and cross sections and forecast soundings from the HRRR and other hi-res models suggest we should begin to erode that moisture layer by afternoon, mainly across southern IN and northern KY though there will be plenty of high clouds around to keep skies mostly cloudy. Southern KY will probably stay in the low clouds through the day. Despite the clouds, temperatures are climbing and are on track to reach the mid 60s. Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015 Updated the grids to reflect the latest T/Td/Wind trends. Will leave mention of an isolated rain shower or a few pockets of light drizzle in for a couple hours across our east this morning as a some light returns still show up on radar. Will also mention some patchy fog in a few locations for a couple hours around dawn. Removed early morning wording from the ZFP. .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 Steady rain has ended across the area, however patches of drizzle and/or very light rain showers will persist through the pre-dawn hours in some locations. Temps will generally stay in the low and mid 50s under heavy cloud cover before sunrise. It will dry out today, however we`ll stay under heavy cloud cover over the southern two thirds of the CWA. The northern third has a shot at seeing some sun and slightly warmer temps by afternoon. Have gone with a fairly pessimistic temp forecast across south central KY where the heavy cloud cover and lack of advection should keep the mercury from wandering too far. Expecting low to mid 60s there, with mid and upper 60s north. Did want to mention that we will hang onto a very small chance of a measurable shower near the Lake Cumberland region as that region could stay on the very northern fringes of a precip shield extending from the western Gulf Coast system. Chances for light rain across our SE CWA will increase tonight as a better surge of moisture occurs with the southern system sliding further east. Chances will then linger into Monday as the system opens up and begins to eject east, bringing the deeper moisture skirting mainly to our SE. Went with a mild temp forecast overnight under expected cloud cover and a light NE wind. Looking for upper 40s north to mid 50s south. Highs Monday should top out in the low 70s north and the upper 60s south and east under heavier cloud cover and a continued cool light NE surface flow. Did want to mention that the NAM seems to be an outlier with a further north progression of the precip shield, even from its hi-res counterparts. So, leaned away from its solution which essentially keeps areas north of a Bowling Green to Richmond line dry. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep us dry through Thursday, though low levels stay fairly moist so there may be a fair amount of cloudiness, especially Wednesday and Thursday. With return surface flow and the ridging aloft will go fairly warm with highs 70-75 Tuesday through Thursday (about ten degrees warmer than normal), though afternoon temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much cloud cover is realized. Lows will be in the 50s. Late in the week an upper trof will eject northeastward out of the Rockies, bringing a surface low from the Plains to the Great Lakes and sweeping its attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with the best chances still looking to be on Friday. Surface instability looks weak with this system but it has strong dynamics associated with it so it will still bear watching. Models have trended drier for Friday night and Saturday as the front swings off to the east. The air behind the front doesn`t look too cold, with lows Saturday morning in the 40s and highs that afternoon around 60. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf and a stubborn low-level inversion is keeping IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings in place at BWG while SDF/LEX lie on the fringe of this boundary and as of 17z, have begun to lift/scatter out some. Very dry air is above this inversion, so there is above average confidence that SDF/LEX will remain out of the low clouds through the aftenoon. Main concern is fog potential tonight as guidance trends toward a narrow band of fog forming on the northern edge of the high cloud shield. Where exactly this sets up remains uncertain though pretty much all of the guidance hints at it. The boundary layer conditions look favorable for fog as well, with light winds and plenty of residual moisture in place. Trended the TAFs toward this scenario. If it looks like the high clouds will be east of SDF/LEX overnight, then IFR or worse conditions will be possible. At BWG, plan on low- end or IFR conditions through the period, dropping to near LIFR overnight as moisture continues to pool within the low-level inversion. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........ZBT Short Term.....BJS Long Term......13 Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1056 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 SOME DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING NEAR KJKL AND HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED NEAR LOST CREEK IN BREATHITT COUNTY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN RATHER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR THIS MOISTURE TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR IT TO OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. CLOUDS PERSIST AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FURTHER LOWERING OF MAX T MAY BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LET THE GOING FORECAST CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE AN AREA OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS WELL...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POISED TO EXIT ALREADY THIS MORNING. A STILL LINGERING AND STRONG LL JET SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. UPSTREAM FOR TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW OVER TX BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE. QUITE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGING THE DEFORMATION ZONE FAR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY KEEPS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BRING POPS BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THERE IN LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE SHIELD OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN PRETTY EXTENSIVE ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...HAVE LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA PUTTING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A WAA SITUATION AGAIN AND AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS FOR MONDAY A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALL DEPICT AN OPENING TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THESE LATTER MODELS WAS FAVORED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH...BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE THEN WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD KENTUCKY. THIS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST FASTEST IN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GFS LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND UNLIKE THE MUCH SLOWER AND OUT OF SYNCH GEM. THE GEM WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS A RESULT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SERVICEABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ACCORDINGLY...THE SYSTEM/S TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH WEAKENING ENERGY INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH BY THAT NIGHT AS HEIGHTS GENTLY BOTTOM OUT BENEATH A FAIRLY FLAT TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE CR GRID BLEND TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT PRETTY WELL. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SHEARED OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SHOWERS DRY UP. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE FOR MUCH OF THE TIME LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WARM UP EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SHOULD ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP... BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF...KENTUCKY KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TO STAY DRY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. ALSO...TWEAKED THE POPS ON SATURDAY TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINATIVE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BEING UNDER PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE WITH BELOW IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT SLIGHTLY BY 00Z AS A BREAK IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS SETS UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 954 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 953 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015 Forecast into the afternoon hours remains on track as moisture trapped within a shallow but steep inversion is keeping low clouds/stratus around. Morning fog has mostly burned off per latest observations. 01.12z ILN sounding does show a significant dry air layer just above the inversion...and cross sections and forecast soundings from the HRRR and other hi-res models suggest we should begin to erode that moisture layer by afternoon, mainly across southern IN and northern KY though there will be plenty of high clouds around to keep skies mostly cloudy. Southern KY will probably stay in the low clouds through the day. Despite the clouds, temperatures are climbing and are on track to reach the mid 60s. Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015 Updated the grids to reflect the latest T/Td/Wind trends. Will leave mention of an isolated rain shower or a few pockets of light drizzle in for a couple hours across our east this morning as a some light returns still show up on radar. Will also mention some patchy fog in a few locations for a couple hours around dawn. Removed early morning wording from the ZFP. .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 Steady rain has ended across the area, however patches of drizzle and/or very light rain showers will persist through the pre-dawn hours in some locations. Temps will generally stay in the low and mid 50s under heavy cloud cover before sunrise. It will dry out today, however we`ll stay under heavy cloud cover over the southern two thirds of the CWA. The northern third has a shot at seeing some sun and slightly warmer temps by afternoon. Have gone with a fairly pessimistic temp forecast across south central KY where the heavy cloud cover and lack of advection should keep the mercury from wandering too far. Expecting low to mid 60s there, with mid and upper 60s north. Did want to mention that we will hang onto a very small chance of a measurable shower near the Lake Cumberland region as that region could stay on the very northern fringes of a precip shield extending from the western Gulf Coast system. Chances for light rain across our SE CWA will increase tonight as a better surge of moisture occurs with the southern system sliding further east. Chances will then linger into Monday as the system opens up and begins to eject east, bringing the deeper moisture skirting mainly to our SE. Went with a mild temp forecast overnight under expected cloud cover and a light NE wind. Looking for upper 40s north to mid 50s south. Highs Monday should top out in the low 70s north and the upper 60s south and east under heavier cloud cover and a continued cool light NE surface flow. Did want to mention that the NAM seems to be an outlier with a further north progression of the precip shield, even from its hi-res counterparts. So, leaned away from its solution which essentially keeps areas north of a Bowling Green to Richmond line dry. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep us dry through Thursday, though low levels stay fairly moist so there may be a fair amount of cloudiness, especially Wednesday and Thursday. With return surface flow and the ridging aloft will go fairly warm with highs 70-75 Tuesday through Thursday (about ten degrees warmer than normal), though afternoon temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much cloud cover is realized. Lows will be in the 50s. Late in the week an upper trof will eject northeastward out of the Rockies, bringing a surface low from the Plains to the Great Lakes and sweeping its attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with the best chances still looking to be on Friday. Surface instability looks weak with this system but it has strong dynamics associated with it so it will still bear watching. Models have trended drier for Friday night and Saturday as the front swings off to the east. The air behind the front doesn`t look too cold, with lows Saturday morning in the 40s and highs that afternoon around 60. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 606 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015 Other than a few lingering pockets of light drizzle early this morning, expect a dry forecast through this cycle. Main challenge will be low ceilings and when each site will see improvement. All 3 sites are currently experiencing IFR ceilings and this will persist through the morning. Winds have also gone nearly calm and seeing a vis reduction along with the low ceilings as a result. So, expecting MVFR vis with IFR (possibly near minimums at times) up through around sunrise. Expecting SDF to begin to scatter out around 10 AM EST, however not expecting a return to VFR until around Noon. LEX will follow the same process about an hour or two later. BWG will hold onto IFR the longest, where improvement isn`t anticipated until mid afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the period, and will still have a bkn/ovc upper cloud deck when sites go VFR. Also wanted to mention a reasonable possibility of some fog later this evening. One limiting factor may be thick upper clouds. Will hint at it in the TAFs for now. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........ZBT Short Term.....BJS Long Term......13 Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
706 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 645 PM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG NOW TERM UPDATE WAS TO XTND ISOLD TO SCT SHWR BAND OVR THE N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTN OF THE FA A FEW MORE HRS...AT LEAST INTO ERLY EVE BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE ON RADAR AND PROJECTED 22Z HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF INTO THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY FCST TEMPS WERE MADE IN ADDITION TO CORRECTIONS TO HI TRRN TEMPS TRENDS WERE MADE THRU THE NEAR TERM. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING H925-H850 MOISTURE WILL PREVENT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES MAINE DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT IN THE ALLAGASH AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME SNOW FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING KICKS IN. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK ZONES ONE AND TWO. AS ALWAYS FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW...BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES WILL BE PARAMOUNT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT MORE LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS. THESE ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH OVER AN INCH IN GRASSY AREAS. DUE TO WARM RECENT TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE BRIEF...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORESEE TRAVEL ISSUES. THE SNOW WILL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE LATER IN THE MORNING AS WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR OVERTAKES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ALL DAY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD TO HOULTON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE NEAR 40F TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND MUCH OF DOWN EAST IS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER THE TOP OF THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE CIRCULATING NORTH BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A FAST MOVING AND VIGOROUS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE WINDY AND WARM WITH SHOWERS AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS. DOWNEAST WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AIR ON SUNDAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY MAY TREND CLEARER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH AND CLEARER SKIES DOWNEAST. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL DISSOLVE THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN SITES...BUT RETURN LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF HUL. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THESE NORTHERN SITES TO IFR TUESDAY MORNING. BGR AND BHB SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR, AND IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE VFR ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW SCA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY GALE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF OUR AREA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
144 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL PUSH EAST ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME QUICK MOVING RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...WHICH LARGELY CORRELATE WITH MOISTURE AOA 700MB PER RNK/GSO 00Z/01 SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN RURAL LOCATIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AS A WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND REACHES INTO THE OH VALLEY...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN/LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BECOME STEADY. LOWS GENLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS. THE 18Z/31 GFS/NAM EACH INDICATE A DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 310K THETA SURFACE...WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING. ADDITIONALLY 12Z/31 HIGH-RES ARW AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS W OF THE BAY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LOW-END LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS AOB 0.10". THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATE AFTN THOUGH...MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWA. THIS IS RESULTING FROM THE BEGINNING OF A NE TREK OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC RANGE AFTER 3 PM OVER SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD SUN...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF I-95 TO AROUND 70 F ACRS THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST 12Z/31 MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY AGREE ON A WET SCENARIO FOR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-100% OVER SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT (MOST OF THIS AFTER THE LATE EVENING HRS) AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE GULF CST LIFTS ENE...AND 250MB JET RRQ FORCING INCREASES IN EARNEST. AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2" OVER THE SOUTH. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 80% OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS MIN...60-70% ACRS THE FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 2-3" OF TOTAL QPF IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA...TO 0.50 TO 1" ACRS THE NORTH. STILL DO NOT REALLY ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING GIVEN THIS IS A LONG TERM ~24 TO 36 HR EVENT. HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 50S W/NW...TO THE UPPER 60S SE. GRADUAL DRYING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM FROM NW TO SE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING FROM THE N ON TUE...HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENRLY DRY CONDS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE MID ATLC/NE CST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK SFC WAVE OFF THE NC CST AND THUS A LO CHANCE OF PCPN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS A DRY FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN MSTLY A DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR SE AREAS. UPR- LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THEREAFTER THRU AT LEAST FRI...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LO/MID 70S THUR AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRNT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STARTING OUT W/ BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10KFT...WHICH ARE XPCD TO GRADUALLY LWR TO 5-8KFT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MRNG HRS. SLO SATURATION TO LWR/MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY -RA AFT 11-14Z/01 (WHICH LIKELY LAST ABT 2-4 HRS IN MOST PLACES). WK FNTL BNDRY AND MOISTURE AXIS SINKS SE THROUGH THE FA MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN. HAVE ADDED -RA TO KECG LTR THAN OTHER SITES (AFT 19-21Z/01). HI END MVFR CIGS LT TDA/TNGT. LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON NGT ALG STATIONARY FNT. PDS OF IFR ALG W/ WIDESPREAD RA DEVELOPING XPCD MON/MON NGT. THE WX IS SLO TO IMPROVE TUE W/ VFR CONDS BY LT IN THE DAY. DRY WX/VFR WED-THU. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES W/ THIS FCST PACKAGE. S WNDS AVGG AOB 15 KT ATTM...WILL CONT INTO THIS AFTN WHILE BECOMING A BIT MORE SW. WK SFC FNTL BNDRY PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVE...STALLING JUST S OF THE WTRS TNGT. WNDS BECOMING WNW...THEN N AFT THE BNDRY SETTLES S OF THE RGN LT TDA-TNGT (SPEEDS MNLY AOB 10 KT). SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH THE SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON NGT...W/ WNDS OVR THE WTRS BECOMING NE. PTNTL FOR LO END SCAS AS LO PUSHES OFF THE NC CST MON NGT W/ NE WNDS INCRSG TO 15-25 KT...MNLY FAR SRN BAY AND ATLC WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISL VA. WAVES INVOF MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT...SEAS 4-6 FT OVR THE SRN ATLC CSTL WTRS (DUE TO THE XPCD INCRS IN NE WNDS). SINCE ANY SCA CONDS PRIMARILY 4-5TH PDS OF FCST WILL HOLD OFF ON SCAS. MARINE CONDS SLO TO IMPROVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/LSA MARINE...ALB/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL PUSH EAST ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME QUICK MOVING RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...WHICH LARGELY CORRELATE WITH MOISTURE AOA 700MB PER RNK/GSO 00Z/01 SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN RURAL LOCATIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AS A WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND REACHES INTO THE OH VALLEY...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN/LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BECOME STEADY. LOWS GENLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS. THE 18Z/31 GFS/NAM EACH INDICATE A DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 310K THETA SURFACE...WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING. ADDITIONALLY 12Z/31 HIGH-RES ARW AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS W OF THE BAY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LOW-END LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS AOB 0.10". THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATE AFTN THOUGH...MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWA. THIS IS RESULTING FROM THE BEGINNING OF A NE TREK OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC RANGE AFTER 3 PM OVER SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD SUN...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF I-95 TO AROUND 70 F ACRS THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST 12Z/31 MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY AGREE ON A WET SCENARIO FOR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-100% OVER SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT (MOST OF THIS AFTER THE LATE EVENING HRS) AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE GULF CST LIFTS ENE...AND 250MB JET RRQ FORCING INCREASES IN EARNEST. AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2" OVER THE SOUTH. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 80% OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS MIN...60-70% ACRS THE FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 2-3" OF TOTAL QPF IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA...TO 0.50 TO 1" ACRS THE NORTH. STILL DO NOT REALLY ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING GIVEN THIS IS A LONG TERM ~24 TO 36 HR EVENT. HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 50S W/NW...TO THE UPPER 60S SE. GRADUAL DRYING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM FROM NW TO SE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING FROM THE N ON TUE...HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENRLY DRY CONDS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG THE MID ATLC/NE CST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK SFC WAVE OFF THE NC CST AND THUS A LO CHANCE OF PCPN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS A DRY FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN MSTLY A DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR SE AREAS. UPR- LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THEREAFTER THRU AT LEAST FRI...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LO/MID 70S THUR AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRNT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STARTING OUT W/ BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10KFT...WHICH ARE XPCD TO GRADUALLY LWR TO 5-8KFT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MRNG HRS. SLO SATURATION TO LWR/MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY -RA AFT 11-14Z/01 (WHICH LIKELY LAST ABT 2-4 HRS IN MOST PLACES). WK FNTL BNDRY AND MOISTURE AXIS SINKS SE THROUGH THE FA MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN. HAVE ADDED -RA TO KECG LTR THAN OTHER SITES (AFT 19-21Z/01). HI END MVFR CIGS LT TDA/TNGT. LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON NGT ALG STATIONARY FNT. PDS OF IFR ALG W/ WIDESPREAD RA DEVELOPING XPCD MON/MON NGT. THE WX IS SLO TO IMPROVE TUE W/ VFR CONDS BY LT IN THE DAY. DRY WX/VFR WED-THU. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST. THE HI WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AFTR MIDNITE. 10-15 KT S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN...UNTIL A TROF OF LO PRES CROSSES THE AREA SUN NGT. MEANWHILE...SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE STATES SUN NGT INTO MON...WITH WINDS OVER THE WTRS BCMG NELY. AS THE LO SLIDES S OF THE FA ERLY IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SCA CONDS OVER AT LEAST THE SRN BAY AND OCEAN. FOR MON/TUE...EXPECT 10-20 KT WINDS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT OVER THE SRN BAY...AND 15-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT OVER CSTL WTRS. MARINE CONDS THEN IMPROVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ALB/LSA MARINE...MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
633 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S. TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING - SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR TOMORROW/S FORECAST. THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 626 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AND KCMX WHERE MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED IN FCST LATE TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT... MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20- 30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15- 25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT. EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS 35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON. TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS. AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO 10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA- ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER THE TAF SITES TO START THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECT THEM TO TRANSITION TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF VFR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE IS ENOUGH MVFR CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO CONTINUE THAT AS THE PREVAILING VALUES WITH TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS. ONCE THE MVFR CLOUDS DEPART...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS A VCSH. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...SRF MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
627 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT. EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS 35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON. TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS. AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO 10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA- ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 624 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A STEADY/GUSTY WNW FLOW BTWN LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND A HI PRES RDG ADVANCING THRU THE PLAINS WL BRING LO CLDS AND PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TODAY TO THE TAF SITES. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX THIS MRNG WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WINDS WL ALSO GUST UP TO 20-25KTS MUCH OF TODAY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE HI PRES RDG WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVNG...SOME MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/SW FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING RDG WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TNGT IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT. EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS 35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON. TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS. AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES. AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO 10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA- ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT NE OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KCMX. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT TO IMPROVE TO HIGH MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT WILL BE AT KCMX WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
728 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 720 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD WERE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS TONIGHT. WE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG EARLIER AS KINL WAS DOWN TO 2.5SM AND FOG WAS REPORTED AT KD25. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S. THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH PTYPE. THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 614 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE RAP INDICATES THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND KINL RECENTLY REPORTED 4SM IN FOG AND BKN002. WE MENTION FOG IN ALL OF THE TAFS AS WELL AS SOME IFR CEILINGS. THE NAM DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH THAT SCENARIO. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG/LOW CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 43 54 47 59 / 0 0 10 20 INL 35 50 41 54 / 20 0 20 20 BRD 42 64 49 67 / 0 0 10 10 HYR 38 66 50 64 / 0 0 0 10 ASX 40 59 48 61 / 10 0 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...STEWART AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
614 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S. THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH PTYPE. THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 614 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE RAP INDICATES THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND KINL RECENTLY REPORTED 4SM IN FOG AND BKN002. WE MENTION FOG IN ALL OF THE TAFS AS WELL AS SOME IFR CEILINGS. THE NAM DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH THAT SCENARIO. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG/LOW CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...STEWART AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
920 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ALTHOUGH VERY FEW OBSERVATIONS REFLECT IT AND IT IS ALSO ABSENT FROM THE RADAR. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING...THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE AN INVERTED FEATURE AROUND 850 MB. WHILE THE SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...THAT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WV...OFTEN TIMES...IT TAKES A DAY OR SO FOR THE AREA TO CLEAR ANY FEATURES AROUND 850. LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE DRIER VALUES ARE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...NOT CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IF THE DRY SURFACE AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES AND USED THE RUC TO ADJUST THE LOWS. RAISED VALUES A COUPLE DEGREES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION....SOME CLEAR SLOTS HAVE FORMED IN THE DELTA REGION OF MS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN THOSE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LOWER ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF FOG AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO IFR BRIEFLY TOWARD DAWN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON./26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 59 76 58 80 / 10 2 5 3 MERIDIAN 60 75 55 79 / 10 7 6 7 VICKSBURG 58 76 56 81 / 10 5 4 4 HATTIESBURG 60 77 58 82 / 10 3 7 5 NATCHEZ 57 75 61 81 / 10 4 5 3 GREENVILLE 57 77 58 80 / 10 2 4 4 GREENWOOD 57 77 58 80 / 10 2 4 5 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 7/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
915 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 902 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015 Have issued a dense fog advisory through 9 am Tuesday. Area of low stratus and fog over southern Illinois has expanded into central Illinois and eastern Illinois. Several locations including KSTL have already dropped to 1/4SM, and latest runs of RAP and HRRR suggest that this area will continue to expand northwestward through the night. Given the lowering dewpoint depressions, the visibility guidance from the HRRR, and similar setup to last night...see no reason that we should see more dense fog again tonight. Far northwestern corner is currently the driest and farthest from the area of stratus...but will continue to monitor through the night to see if they will need to be added to the fog advisory. Otherwise...going forecast still looks on track. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015 Primary concern for tonight is the redevelopment and spreading of low stratus and fog across the area. There is a very persistent area of stratus just southeast of the STL Metro area which is already starting to inch its way northwestward. All short-range low level RH progs point to this northwest movement continuing tonight...and given that it`s already started I may not have it overspreading the area fast enough. Another area of persistent stratus north of Springfield Missouri is dissipating at this time but i think it will probably stop dissipating and begin expanding again after sunset. Additionally, think stratus will redevelop over northeast Oklahoma and eastern Kansas and spread toward our central MO counties. Guidance shows a dry slot over parts of our central and northeast Missouri counties where stratus may not move over, however those areas should radiate strongly with clear sky and light wind. Fog will likely be the result. Regardless of sky condition, I did put areas of fog in across the entire area late tonight. As the boundary layer cools, the stratus should lower toward the ground, resulting in fog. Dense fog is certainly a possibility, but did not mention it in the forecast yet since I`m not certain how low the visibility will get under the stratus. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015 Extent, location, and longevity of tonight`s stratus and fog will remain the main forecast concern heading into tomorrow. Its always difficult to pin down exact low cloud trends in regimes with very shallow moisture, but judging by the gradual increase of southerly low level flow and today`s cloud trends, expect some low clouds and/or fog over much of the FA by 12z Tue with this cloudiness then attempting to erode during the afternoon hours. Obviously these cloud trends will have a huge impact on highs, as can be seen this in this afternoon temps that are varying 15 or more degrees between the cloudy areas and those locations that are experiencing sunshine...over a distance of about 50 miles. Model consensus seems to suggest that most persistent area of cloudiness tomorrow will be over southeast sections of the CWA, and because of this have dropped max temps in this area into the upper 60s while maintaining lower to middle 70s elsewhere. If clouds persist throughout the day temps beneath the clouds will be even cooler than this, but given the fact that temp gradient will be so large between the cloudy and sunny areas will leave additional adjustments to the nowcast time frame, when cloud deck trends hopefully become a bit more clear. Low cloud potential will continue to be a forecast concern heading into midweek, but with so much unknown on Tuesday`s trends getting too specific in later periods is nearly impossible at this point. Will broadbrush clouds over the area in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame with the thinking that increasing southerly flow should allow additional low cloudiness to overspread the region. However,also believe that the increase in mixing may prevent the clouds from becoming too thick and/or persistent, so have maintained fairly mild afternoon highs in the 70s across the entire CWA on Wednesday. 12z guidance remains in fairly good agreement with NWP runs over the previous 36 hours in bringing deep trof over the western CONUS into the central U.S. later in the week. There will be some threat of elevated showers and thunderstorms perhaps as early as Thursday as moisture begins a dramatic increase across the region, but the main precip threat should be centered on the Thursday night time frame when strong shortwave sweeps from southern plains into the Mississippi Valley. Initialization scheme has increased PoPs into categorical range, and this looks reasonable given available moisture and intensity of system. While thunderstorms will certainly be possible, still very much uncertain about severe potential with this system. Large scale wind fields are certainly stout but warm sector AMS is looking fairly waterlogged and not particularly unstable, so threat may be a cool season high-shear, low CAPE setup. Still appears rain threat will rapidly end from west to east during the day on Friday as strong cold front sweeps across the region, followed by cool and dry weather for next weekend and into early next week. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2015 IFR stratus is making its way back to the north and west this evening, so by 01z-02z all of STL metro tafs to have IFR cigs. They will remain that way with some patchy mvfr vsbys in fog through late morning on Tuesday. Then cigs to lift to MVFR and scatter out by 21z Tuesday. As for KCOU and KUIN, forecast a bit trickier. Will either have clear skies with fog developing or stratus to advect into these sites. For now have IFR cigs/vsbys moving in between 10z-11z Tuesday. Then see conditions improve to MVFR after 21z Tuesday. Specifics for KSTL: IFR stratus is making its way back to the north and west this evening, so by 01z-02z all of STL metro tafs to have IFR cigs. They will remain that way with some patchy mvfr vsbys in fog through 17z Tuesday. Then cigs to lift to MVFR and scatter out by 21z Tuesday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO- St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
929 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... A COLD FRONT MOVED S THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESSURE RISES WERE CREATING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATED WINDS TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS. WINDS LOOKED LESS GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING E OF KBIL ON RADAR AS WELL AS OVER KLVM AND COOKE CITY. THE SHOWERS OVER THE E WERE THE RESULT OF FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE 700 MB FRONT MOVING S THROUGH THE AREA. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALMOST 200 J/KG OF CAPE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. SHORTWAVES...UPSLOPE FLOW AND A GOOD PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WERE PRODUCING THE WESTERN SHOWERS. THE WHOLE AREA OF MOISTURE WAS SINKING S ON SATELLITE AND WAS SUPPORTED BY NEW MODELS. DID ADD LOW POPS FROM KBIL E AND S TODAY...SHIFTING THEM S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS OVER KLVM AND THE SW MOUNTAINS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWERED MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON WEB CAMS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. ADJUSTED TONIGHT/S WINDS TO MAKE THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ADJLAV GUIDANCE. MIXING SUPPORTED TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS. QUICK GLANCE AT NEW GFS FOR THE STORM SYSTEM SHOWED MORE OF A SE DRY SLOT THAN BEFORE. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE WHOLE NEW PACKAGE OF DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS. ARTHUR && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON... FOR TODAY...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA UNDER MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA RANGES. AT THIS POINT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH MAINLY A WET RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE REAL ACTION STARTS ON MONDAY. SINGER .LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT... THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EURO WERE QUITE SIMILAR... BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH EXISTING THE SFC LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED THAN PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED... ESPECIALLY IN THE EURO... SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST TO FIT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. DAYS 2 THRU 8... THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WAS LOCATED OFF THE BC COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W MON NIGHT... WITH INCREASING POPS BEGINNING IN THE W MOUNTAINS. SW FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA MON NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH BECOMES BROADER OVER THE REGION AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER S ID BY TUESDAY MORNING... A FEATURE SLIGHTLY MORE APPARENT IN THE EURO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SW TO NE INTO SW MT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF 300MB JET DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION... STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA INTO TUE EVENING. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES E TUE EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NW EARLY WED AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES TO THE NE FROM CENTRAL WY TO N SD AND FILLS... BRINING THE COLDER AIR WITH A STRONGER PUSH TO S. GOOD MOISTURE WAS STILL FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE WAS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIPITATION EVENT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WED... ESPECIALLY IN SE MT AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AFFECTS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE ZERO DEGREE C 850 MB LINE REMAINS N OF THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL HELP SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN. THE 850 MB ZERO LINE THEN SINKS S INTO THE AREA ON TUE...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS SUBFREEZING SFC AIR REACHES KBIL BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EURO BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING IN THE GFS. TIMING OF THIS COLD AIR SURGE WILL BE CRITICAL TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CREATED BY THE ABOVE FACTORS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL AS SNOW... GIVEN THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FURTHER COOL TUE NIGHT AND WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON... AND EVEN LATER IN THE GFS GIVEN LATER PUSH OF COLD AIR. SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVING PRECIPITATION... A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF BUT NOT AS HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN QUESTIONS ON HOW THE DYNAMICS WILL PLAY OUT...AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO BE LIKELY IN THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE COMING FORECAST AS THE WAVE COMING ONSHORE BEGINS TO BE SAMPLED BY RAWINSONDE DATA. MODELS SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH RIDGING TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME SLIGHT POPS IN MOUNTAINS... REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLOWLY UPWARD AFTER COLDEST TEMPS WED TO LOW 50S BY SUN. MROWELL && .AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE. BORSUM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 064 038/051 035/041 028/038 022/041 026/043 026/047 2/W 26/W 88/W 84/W 11/B 12/W 10/B LVM 059 033/046 030/038 024/035 021/038 025/041 024/045 5/W 36/W 98/W 85/J 11/B 22/W 11/B HDN 064 035/054 033/043 029/039 022/044 025/046 025/051 2/W 26/W 87/W 86/W 11/B 12/W 11/U MLS 066 037/055 037/044 030/039 024/045 025/044 026/050 2/W 31/E 87/W 75/W 11/B 11/B 11/B 4BQ 065 037/056 036/049 032/041 025/048 027/048 027/055 2/W 26/W 76/W 64/W 11/B 11/B 11/U BHK 064 034/054 035/045 028/039 022/044 022/043 023/049 0/N 21/B 87/W 65/W 11/B 11/B 11/U SHR 065 034/053 031/045 028/040 021/046 024/047 024/054 2/W 26/W 77/W 74/W 11/B 12/W 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
611 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 240 PM CST...THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN TIED AT BOTH THE GRAND ISLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW AND OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS EXPECTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS WE THEN WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST FALLING SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD. BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES...THIS FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE...DESPITE GOING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. OF NOTE...IF STRATUS AND FOG DOES DEVELOP...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD END UP BEING A BUST...AS THE MET GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE OF FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS LOW...AND FELT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE GOING WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20C. ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED IN THE MID TERM PERIODS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DEEP ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...THIS COULD COME INTO QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST NAM RUNS...AND ONLY THE NAM...SUGGESTS SOME STRATUS DECK TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE ECMWF DUMPING AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF QPF ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE BUT STILL SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MORE DEFINED THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...MILD RIDGING AND EVEN SOME ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S. SATURDAY MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST 1000 FT AGL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 9 PM AND LASTING UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE NAM INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS AND RUC ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS WEAK AS WE NEAR DAWN AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 NEAR RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS... CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD (YEAR) GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 (1978) HASTINGS: 56 78 79 (1978) && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSSI LONG TERM...SALTZMAN AVIATION...WESELY CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA WITH LITTLE RAIN NEAR THE COAST. PER LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR AND CONTINUED TRENDS FROM BOTH THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...THINK PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP TO CATEGORICAL LATER TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MON...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS TODAY AND WITH BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MON...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS THRU THURSDAY. DRIES OUT FRI...AS WEAKENING LOW LIFTS N AND HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE BEACHES. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS SAT AND SUN...WITH BEST CHANCES SAT NIGHT. COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AS RAIN BECOMES STEADIER...EXPECT VSBYS TO FOLLOW SUIT AND DROP INTO THE 2-4 NM RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL FOLLOW TRENDS IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND SHOW A MINIMAL AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS DURING TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS RISING TO THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE AND VSBY IMPROVING TO 5 MILES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR TO RETURN LATER THU AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR WINDS ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL DROP JUST A BIT TO 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4-FOOTERS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MON...SFC LOW AND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT THEN STALL OFF THE SE COAST...WITH NE FLOW 10-20KT DEVELOPING OVER THE MARINE AREA. CONSENSUS OF WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO 3-5 FT BUT FORECAST SEAS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE RAISED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NE/E FLOW THRU MIDWEEK. THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING. SW WINDS AOB 15 KT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A GOOD SURGE OF N/NE WIND AND BUILDING SEAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...BTC/CTC/LEP MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
719 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION IE. THUNDER...ALSO FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE FA WILL SUCCUMB TO MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS OVERNITE INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED OR ISOLATED RW+ WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAINS ...WITH THE BEST THREAT LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXTRAPOLATING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE CURRENT EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS SC AND GA. HAVE UPDATED THE QPF FIELDS. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL THREE QUARTERS TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MUCH OF IT DEPENDENT ON THAT SWATH OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. OVERALL LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS...NO CHANGE THERE. CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST. AT THE NEXT UPDATE...MAY TWEAK MIN TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL TRENDS. PREVIOUS.................................................... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT HAS DEFIED MY EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD CRAWL NORTHWARD TEN OR TWENTY MILES FROM ITS EARLY MORNING POSITION. THE FRONT ONLY MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE CITY...CONWAY...TABOR CITY AND WILMINGTON BUT HAS SINCE RETREATED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MADE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO GEORGETOWN AND KINGSTREE. IT`S TOUGH TO FIND ANY MODEL THAT SHOWS THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SO I HAVE HAND-DRAWN MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS OVER THE NEXT NINE HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS...AND 12Z NMM-ARW OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK 850 MB LOW TRICKLING OVERHEAD COULD STALL THE FRONT AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE IT PICKS UP SOME SPEED LATE TONIGHT. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RATHER INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BRINGING SOLID 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL. WITH THE EARLY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TUE INTO WED ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. PWATS WILL BE AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FROM TUE AM INTO WED AFTERNOON. WORTH NOTING THAT THESE VALUES ARE NEAR OR ABOVE MAXIMUM RECORDED VALUES FOR EARLY NOV. THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE MID LEVEL FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATER WED AS THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WEAKENS. BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND WED NIGHT AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FL CUTS OFF ISENTROPIC LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS. THESE FACTORS WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO PRECIP OVERNIGHT WED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUE AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WED WITH LOWS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHOULD SEE WEDGE BREAK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE SFC FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE SE EARLY THURS AND THEN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURS INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BRIGHTEN...THERE WILL BE DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW H7. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME SUN TO MAKE IT THROUGH BUT DO NOT EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE EITHER THURS OR FRI BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY PCP UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY WHEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN PLACES WITH MORE SUNSHINE. BY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP FLOW OF MOISTURE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LATEST GFS SHOWS CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPING MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SET UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND COOL FALL LIKE WEATHER. 850 TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER POST FROPA WITH A DROP FROM NEAR 15C SAT AFTN DOWN TO 5C BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER SUN AND MON. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS BELOW 40 INLAND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAINFALL...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING IFR/LIFR ON TUESDAY AS UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. THOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECT KFLO/KLBT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAINFALL ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE...WITH -RA/-DZ/VCSH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BASICALLY DROPPED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WATERS...WITH WINDS NOW FROM THE NNE- ENE AROUND 10 KT. THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN-SOME OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT OR POSSIBLY JUST A SOLID 15 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FEET. ALTHOUGH A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT...8 TO 9 SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...ITS THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WAVES THAT WILL DOMINATE. ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE LATER IN THIS PERIOD. CURRENT SPECTRAL DENSITY IE. POWER CHARTS FOR BUOYS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS INDICATE THIS ALREADY OCCURRING. PREVIOUS...................................................... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THIS MORNING`S WARM FRONT MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS MAYBE MASONBORO ISLAND BEFORE SURGING BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND FORT FISHER NC TO OAK ISLAND TO MURRELLS INLET SC AND THEN INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EVEN STALLING AGAIN AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TRICKLES OVERHEAD. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF 9-SECOND EASTERLY SWELL AND A 3-4 SECOND WIND CHOP. SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSER TO 3 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...PERHAPS LOCALLY 4 FEET BRIEFLY IN THE STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TUE INTO WED. SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER WED...RELAXING THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. AT TIMES THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT BUT GENERALLY SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY....WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE E-SE AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL VEER AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND A DECENT NORTHERLY SURGE TO FOLLOW COULD BRING SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SHIFTING WINDS ON THURS WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP MORE GRADUALLY FROM 3 FT OR LESS ON THURS IN LIGHTER WINDS TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY SAT NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
705 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EXPANDS SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RISK FOR MORE SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION IE. THUNDER...ALSO FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE FA WILL SUCCUMB TO MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS OVERNITE INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED OR ISOLATED RW+ WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAINS ...WITH THE BEST THREAT LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXTRAPOLATING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE CURRENT EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS SC AND GA. HAVE UPDATED THE QPF FIELDS. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL THREE QUARTERS TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MUCH OF IT DEPENDENT ON THAT SWATH OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. OVERALL LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS...NO CHANGE THERE. CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST. AT THE NEXT UPDATE...MAY TWEAK MIN TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL TRENDS. PREVIOUS.................................................... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT HAS DEFIED MY EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD CRAWL NORTHWARD TEN OR TWENTY MILES FROM ITS EARLY MORNING POSITION. THE FRONT ONLY MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE CITY...CONWAY...TABOR CITY AND WILMINGTON BUT HAS SINCE RETREATED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MADE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO GEORGETOWN AND KINGSTREE. IT`S TOUGH TO FIND ANY MODEL THAT SHOWS THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SO I HAVE HAND-DRAWN MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS OVER THE NEXT NINE HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS...AND 12Z NMM-ARW OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK 850 MB LOW TRICKLING OVERHEAD COULD STALL THE FRONT AGAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE IT PICKS UP SOME SPEED LATE TONIGHT. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RATHER INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BRINGING SOLID 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL. WITH THE EARLY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TUE INTO WED ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. PWATS WILL BE AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FROM TUE AM INTO WED AFTERNOON. WORTH NOTING THAT THESE VALUES ARE NEAR OR ABOVE MAXIMUM RECORDED VALUES FOR EARLY NOV. THE ONLY REAL NOTABLE MID LEVEL FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATER WED AS THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WEAKENS. BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND WED NIGHT AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FL CUTS OFF ISENTROPIC LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS. THESE FACTORS WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO PRECIP OVERNIGHT WED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUE AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WED WITH LOWS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHOULD SEE WEDGE BREAK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE SFC FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE SE EARLY THURS AND THEN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURS INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BRIGHTEN...THERE WILL BE DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW H7. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME SUN TO MAKE IT THROUGH BUT DO NOT EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE EITHER THURS OR FRI BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY PCP UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY WHEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN PLACES WITH MORE SUNSHINE. BY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP FLOW OF MOISTURE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LATEST GFS SHOWS CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPING MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SET UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND COOL FALL LIKE WEATHER. 850 TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER POST FROPA WITH A DROP FROM NEAR 15C SAT AFTN DOWN TO 5C BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER SUN AND MON. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS BELOW 40 INLAND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAINFALL...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING IFR/LIFR ON TUESDAY AS UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. THOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECT KFLO/KLBT...LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAINFALL ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE...WITH -RA/-DZ/VCSH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THIS MORNING`S WARM FRONT MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS MAYBE MASONBORO ISLAND BEFORE SURGING BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND FORT FISHER NC TO OAK ISLAND TO MURRELLS INLET SC AND THEN INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EVEN STALLING AGAIN AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TRICKLES OVERHEAD. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF 9-SECOND EASTERLY SWELL AND A 3-4 SECOND WIND CHOP. SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSER TO 3 FEET IN OPEN WATERS...PERHAPS LOCALLY 4 FEET BRIEFLY IN THE STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TUE INTO WED. SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER WED...RELAXING THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. AT TIMES THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT BUT GENERALLY SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY....WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE E-SE AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL VEER AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND A DECENT NORTHERLY SURGE TO FOLLOW COULD BRING SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SHIFTING WINDS ON THURS WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP MORE GRADUALLY FROM 3 FT OR LESS ON THURS IN LIGHTER WINDS TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY SAT NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1103 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION... CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE U.S.. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...HOWEVER...IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF TN AND THE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE IS TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE CSV AREA AFT 00Z. OTW...IFR CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TX. ASSOCIATED PVA IS WELL SOUTH AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THUS...SFC LOW IS FAR TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL. THIS HAS ACTED TO KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT ON RADAR TODAY. LATEST HRRR DOES WANT TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODEL QPF...OTHER THAN THE EURO...KEEPS THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTW...TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO PROVIDE AN UPWARD TWEAK LATER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS. DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MID-STATE, PRODUCING MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 67 58 70 54 / 20 50 50 10 CLARKSVILLE 67 55 70 52 / 20 40 40 10 CROSSVILLE 66 57 64 54 / 30 70 70 20 COLUMBIA 68 57 70 53 / 20 60 50 10 LAWRENCEBURG 67 57 70 55 / 30 60 50 10 WAVERLY 67 56 70 53 / 20 40 40 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1021 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TX. ASSOCIATED PVA IS WELL SOUTH AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THUS...SFC LOW IS FAR TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL. THIS HAS ACTED TO KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH OF TN...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT ON RADAR TODAY. LATEST HRRR DOES WANT TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODEL QPF...OTHER THAN THE EURO...KEEPS THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTW...TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO PROVIDE AN UPWARD TWEAK LATER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS. DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MID-STATE, PRODUCING MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 67 58 70 54 / 20 50 50 10 CLARKSVILLE 67 55 70 52 / 20 40 40 10 CROSSVILLE 66 57 64 54 / 30 70 70 20 COLUMBIA 68 57 70 53 / 20 60 50 10 LAWRENCEBURG 67 57 70 55 / 30 60 50 10 WAVERLY 67 56 70 53 / 20 40 40 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL SUBSTANTIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. TVT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS... PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CJC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS EXTENDED IFR EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHORT TERM CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT... GIVEN THE EARLIER PARTIAL DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS... IS ONSET OF FOG/LIFR CIGS. EXTENDED OVERRUNNING EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT JBR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCES OF VFR SHOULD QUICKLY CLOSE DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...WITH ELEVATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH... INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND REINFORCING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST INVERSION. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE AND WHERE THE DENSEST FOG DEVELOPS... WITH HRRR AND SREF VISIBILITY PROGS GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTING AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS HOWEVER FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. HUFFMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ DISCUSSION... SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION... LIGHT WINDS...WET GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE EARLY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. GFS SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTN SO SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR E TEXAS. CLEARING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE SO WITH CLEAR SKIES THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG. POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE. OVERALL SHOULD HAVE QUIET CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BEGIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PLAIN THUR NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL AGAIN APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO AGAIN MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS BUT STILL KEEPING WATCH SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING. COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND DECREASE TEMPS FOR THE AREA. GFS IS STILL QUICK TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. LEARY TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AS FAST AS THE GFS SO WILL GRADUALLY DROP POPS OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO OVERDONE WITH RAIN CHANCES. 39 MARINE... LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW STILL ON TRACK TO DECREASE EVEN MORE AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE RESUMING AND THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (WEDS ONWARD). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT...STALLING AOA THE UPPER TX COAST ON FRI. SCEC FLAGS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THUR. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING THAT A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT (LATE SAT/EARLY SUN) COULD PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 78 61 77 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 58 78 62 78 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 69 74 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY. UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD TRENDS HOLDING ONTO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO KEEP UP WITH THOSE TRENDS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TIMING OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN OVERALL WET PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH SLOWER BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME DIFFERENCES. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS NEXT SUNDAY. IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TALK IMPACTS BUT WITH THE FRONT STALLING AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...HOPEFULLY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS YET AGAIN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO DETERMINE THESE DETAILS AND IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST. 39 && .MARINE... OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN PREV- IOUSLY THOUGHT AND DID ADJUST THEM SOME WITH THE UPDATE. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH THIS TREND TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW HELPING TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST A BIT UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMOR- ROW AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS/DECREASED SEAS. SELY WINDS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE MON...THE PERSISTING THRU THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 41 && .AVIATION... PCPN HANGING AROUND SE TX TODAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE STATE. THE IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE ERO- DED SOME BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAPAROUND THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW (AS IT TRACKS TO THE E/NE). NOT A LOT OF CLEARING UNTIL PERHAPS TOMORROW AFTN. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 76 58 78 61 / 20 10 0 0 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 59 78 62 / 30 10 0 0 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 67 74 69 / 30 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...39 AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND BRIEF LIGHTNING. IT SHOULD ALL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/ VFR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME LIGHT FOG COULD FORM NEAR I-35 TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG MONDAY. DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FOG FROM GETTING MUCH MORE THAN MAINLY GROUND FOG. DAYTIME NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20% CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE 10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING) THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE 584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 54 80 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 49 80 51 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 51 82 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 79 54 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 79 53 78 / 20 - 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 51 80 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 55 79 56 80 / 20 - 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 83 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 83 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/ VFR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME LIGHT FOG COULD FORM NEAR I-35 TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG MONDAY. DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FOG FROM GETTING MUCH MORE THAN MAINLY GROUND FOG. DAYTIME NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20% CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE 10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING) THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE 584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 54 80 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 49 80 51 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 51 82 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 79 54 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 79 53 78 / 20 - 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 51 80 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 55 79 56 80 / 20 - 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 83 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 83 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20% CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE 10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING) THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE 584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 54 80 56 79 / - 0 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 49 80 51 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 51 82 54 81 / - 0 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 79 54 77 / - 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 84 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 79 53 78 / 10 - 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 51 80 54 80 / - 0 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 55 79 56 80 / 20 - 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 83 56 80 / - 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 83 55 82 / - 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS TRACKS INTO THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BY MONDAY MORNING THEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 109 AM EST SUNDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SW VA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE MTNS LEADING TO A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING EWD OVER OUR FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS WITH MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO OUR MTNS BETWEEN 4AM- 8AM...MOVING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS FAVORING THE NRN CWA DRYING OUT BY LATE MORNING...SO TRENDING LOWER ON POPS AFTER MID MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SATURDAY EVENING... OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND RNK SHOWED A LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT WAS STILL DRY BUT THE REST OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE THAT WAS SATURATED...THANKS IN PART TO THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF PICKED UP THIS PRECIPITATION WELL. HRRR AND RUC WERE BETTER WITH THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THESE RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO AFTER 6AM/10Z. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HAD MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE EARLY MORNING. USED THIS TYPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH MORNING. A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY...POSSIBLY EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND TO THE VA/NC BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE A FACTOR IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...MORE RAIN MAY NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. FOR NOW AND WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WE WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AXIS ALONG A BHM-CLT-RAH-ORF LINE. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...YIELDING A LARGE SWATH OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN PWAT VALUES OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA...THUS KEEPING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IS BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A TIGHT N-S GRADIENT...THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 3 INCHES ALONG I-40. BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL DURING AN 18 HOUR PERIOD FOCUSED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND SUNSET MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES FOR THE STREAMS AND RIVERS THERE. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60 ONCE WE BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...THEN MOVE EAST IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE +10 TO +12C RANGE. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY...LOWERING THE TEMPERATURE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING...ANY PRECIP THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 AM EDT SUNDAY... LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WV INTO SW VA AROUND 08-12Z. VFR FALLS TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR AT TIMES ACROSS BLF/LWB/BCB 10-14Z. WITH WEDGE/HIGH MOVING EAST/LIGHT WIND AT THE SFC AND A STRONGER LLJ ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT MOST SITES...ENDING BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS. A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF THEDAY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LVLS DRYING UP EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT THE SFC...ESPECIALLY FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...THOUGH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE REMAINS WHICH COULD KEEP FOG IN MVFR RANGE. BLF WILL BE EXCEPTION AS THINK THERE AT LEAST IFR CIGS AFTER 23Z. LOOKS LIKE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL NOT IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WITH VFR TUE- THURSDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN...YIELDING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY...TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 940 PM EDT SATURDAY... OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND RNK SHOWED A LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT WAS STILL DRY BUT THE REST OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE THAT WAS SATURATED...THANKS IN PART TO THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF PICKED UP THIS PRECIPITATION WELL. HRRR AND RUC WERE BETTER WITH THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THESE RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO AFTER 6AM/10Z. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HAD MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE EARLY MORNING. USED THIS TYPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH MORNING. A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY...POSSIBLY EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND TO THE VA/NC BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE A FACTOR IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...MORE RAIN MAY NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. FOR NOW AND WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WE WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AXIS ALONG A BHM-CLT-RAH-ORF LINE. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...YIELDING A LARGE SWATH OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN PWAT VALUES OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA...THUS KEEPING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IS BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A TIGHT N-S GRADIENT...THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 3 INCHES ALONG I-40. BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL DURING AN 18 HOUR PERIOD FOCUSED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND SUNSET MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES FOR THE STREAMS AND RIVERS THERE. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60 ONCE WE BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...THEN MOVE EAST IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE +10 TO +12C RANGE. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY...LOWERING THE TEMPERATURE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING...ANY PRECIP THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 AM EDT SUNDAY... LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WV INTO SW VA AROUND 08-12Z. VFR FALLS TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR AT TIMES ACROSS BLF/LWB/BCB 10-14Z. WITH WEDGE/HIGH MOVING EAST/LIGHT WIND AT THE SFC AND A STRONGER LLJ ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT MOST SITES...ENDING BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS. A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF THEDAY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LVLS DRYING UP EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT THE SFC...ESPECIALLY FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...THOUGH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE REMAINS WHICH COULD KEEP FOG IN MVFR RANGE. BLF WILL BE EXCEPTION AS THINK THERE AT LEAST IFR CIGS AFTER 23Z. LOOKS LIKE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL NOT IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WITH VFR TUE- THURSDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDING WELL. WATCHING LOW STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SRN IL...BUT 01Z HRRR AND LATEST 00Z NAM CIG FORECASTS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY THE HRRR BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH WITH A LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY SKY FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW AND MONITOR NWD TREND OF STRATUS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 08Z-09Z WITH SURFACE WINDS HAVING DROPPED OFF AFTER SUNSET BUT 35-36 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 2K FT OF THE SURFACE UNTIL 08Z-09Z PER LATEST NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE FORECAST. CURRENT BAND OF IFR STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH SRN IL...BUT 01Z HRRR AND LATEST 00Z NAM CIG FORECASTS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY THE HRRR BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH WITH A LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLY OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF LOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WILL AWAIT THE REST OF THE NEW 00Z DATA TO SEE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN A POCKET OF HIGH RH IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TO POSSIBLY NORTHERN IL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AT SUNSET TONIGHT AND MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION SHOULD BE JUST LARGE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE. THE 925MB TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... 15 TO 16C. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MIXING WHICH MEANS LIGHTER WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS. IN ADDITION... WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK THERE. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. OUR WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A BIG CONCERN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THE FALL THAT CAN RUIN A BEAUTIFUL FORECAST. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THAT 925MB LAYER...BUT TO VARYING DEGREES. TO NO ONES SURPRISE...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES A BIT MORE FROM WHAT WE HAD...BUT IT WILL BE AN ALL OR NOTHING SKY COVER. IT WILL EITHER BE OVERCAST OR SUNNY...NOT MUCH IN BETWEEN. A SUNNY DAY MEANS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 70S AGAIN...BUT AN OVERCAST LOW STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD THINGS DOWN IN THE 60S. WILL TREAD CAREFULLY FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...ACTUALLY PASSING TO OUR WEST AND HEADING NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT/S THE FIRST OF TWO LOWS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY WEST OF MADISON...AND ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE 70 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HITTING THE CALIFORNIA COAST RIGHT NOW...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME AND REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE MAIN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS. THE GFS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE/STRENGTHENING 1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TRACKING FROM WCNTRL MO TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY 12Z FRI. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN NH SHOW PLENTY OF VARIATION IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW...TIMING/PLACEMENT ETC. BUT...THEY ALL BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SO RAIN IS NEARLY A SURE THING AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SIGNATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IMPRESSIVE AND WE COULD SEE TOTAL QPF NUMBERS OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ALL OF WISCONSIN. THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE AREA WILL DRY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL TUMBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN AGGRESSIVELY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT SUNSET THIS EVENING... BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LLWS THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO A SWLY 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN WI. ADDED IT TO THE 21Z TAF AMENDMENT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARD CENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL IL... BUT NOT OVER SOUTHERN WI. LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 23Z TODAY FOR GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...REM TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
528 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69 RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S. TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SPOTS. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE. AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS... MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT FEELS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 521 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FG/ST TO FORM TNGT. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FCST. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PRODUCTS TEND TO HINT AT FG/ST OVERNIGHT...WHILE VSBY PRODUCTS OFF THE HRRR/RAP/NAM PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN DENSE FG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY N-C WI. PREV TAF PKG SEEMED TO STRIKE A NICE BALANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SO USED THEM AS A STARTING POINT AND TWEAKED THINGS TOWARD HAVING A LITTLE MORE FG/ST OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE PRETTY TELLING AS WE SEE JUST HOW MUCH ANY OF THE PATCHES OF MIDDLE/HIGH CLDS STREAMING ACRS THE RGN ARE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT/LGT WIND REGIME ACRS THE AREA. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT TEMPS ARE JUST GOING TO SAIL WAY PAST CURRENT DWPTS...WL NEED TO INCREASE THE ST/FG AND INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS INTO THE TAFS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW REPORTS OF THESE LIGHT RETURNS REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN MN. CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A BLANKET OF MID-CLOUDS IS INCOMING HOWEVER...AND WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD LATER TODAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING IN AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...BUT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LIGHT QPF DEPICTED IN THE MESOMODELS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. BEST TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BETWEEN 03- 09Z. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF LOW VSBYS PROJECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MONDAY...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY CHUGGING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE NORTH THOUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING UP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH AND UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A MILD DRY PERIOD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE EACH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSE TO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT THIS IS NOVEMBER. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERT ON AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER TROUGH FRAGMENTS INTO SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE A 120 KT UPPER JET PARALLELS THE FRONT. LFQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL WORK WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE ARE TOWARD FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS A MORE WEST WITH THE FRONT AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE SLIDING OVER THE FRONT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY WITH SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES...OTHERWISE A NEAR ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER FOR POSSIBLE RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 STUBBORN MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. THEN AS LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BKN TO OVC MID CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SMALL CHANCE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD FALL OUT OF THESE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WI TONIGHT...INCLUDING RHI...SO INCLUDED A VICINTY SHOWER FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1232 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 WINDS WERE RAMPING UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AND BORDEAUX...SO EXTENDED THE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 3 PM. LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 55 TO 60 MPH RANGE...BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 10000 TO 15000 FEET AGL. THROUGH 01Z...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...AND 23 TO 33 KNOTS AT CHADRON... ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF AND LANDING...AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106-110. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RJM SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1028 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 10000 TO 15000 FEET AGL. THROUGH 01Z...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS AT RAWLINS...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...AND 23 TO 33 KNOTS AT CHADRON... ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF AND LANDING...AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
411 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 410 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. STONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE MODERATE TURBULENCE COULD BE EXPECTED FOR TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
236 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS. STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT OCT 31 2015 VFR PREVAILS. WYOMING TAFS...VFR PREVAILS WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL. NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST MON NOV 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WE`LL THEN SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY BUT THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS HEADING THIS WAY AND IS HINTING AT A LITTLE MORE WEATHER FOR SE AZ THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS INCLUDING THE 02Z HRRR...00Z NAMDNG25 AND GFS ARE SHOWING A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND FIELDS AND OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTH. IT ISN`T MUCH BUT IT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR PRECIP CHANCES. AS A RESULT WE`VE TWEAKED SURFACE DEW POINT AND RH FIELDS UP AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SUBSEQUENTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE TROUGH TO WORK WITH...WE`VE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS MASSAGING QPF VALUES UP. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND .10 TO .35 AND MOUNTAINS .4 TO .7 OR SO. STORM TOTAL SNOW ABOVE 7K FEET AROUND 3-4 INCHES FOR MT LEMMON...4-5 INCHES FOR MT GRAHAM AND 5-7 INCHES FOR HANNAGAN MEADOW IN THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS (NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES) WITH THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT. OTHERWISE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING COLDER WITH MUCH OF COCHISE AND PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM COUNTIES LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE FREEZE. RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A STRONG WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/05Z. SKC CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 03/14Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SURFACE WIND AFT 03/14Z...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL AND SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS BY 03/20Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AFT 03/22Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NORMAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MEYER/LADER VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
415 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 415 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN EXHAUSTED. THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP... DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES... WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S. DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S. THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY... TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN. MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S CWA-WIDE. FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE REGION. FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF. SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY. WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001. AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY. AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT. EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM) INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID) AND AT KPSF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN. A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT RH VALUES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE WIND TODAY WILL START OUT CALM...INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH...THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEFORE DISSIPATING TO CALM TONIGHT. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY BUT THAT WOULD BE EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS ON THE WATERSHEDS. OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A STRAY SHOWER BY THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS RIDING WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE IT IS MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG/STRATUS WERE STARTING TO FORM IN THE USUAL PLACES...NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CHILLED TO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH MORE AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS JUST ABOUT BEEN EXHAUSTED. THROUGH SUNRISE LOOK FOR A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP... DENSE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...COLDER MOST PLACES... WITH MANY OUTLYING AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ONCE THE SUN RISES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENSUE FROM RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY GOOD RISE TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH 40S AND INTO THE 50S. DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAKING A GO AT 70 DEGREES. LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL CREST IN THE UPPER 60S. THESE VALUES...WHILE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. A SOUTH WIND WILL WILL VEER TO THE WEST...5 TO 15 MPH. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...AS WE LOOSE THE WIND AND KEEP A MAINLY CLEAR SKY... TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER SUNDOWN. MEANWHILE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY...WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DESPITE ANY CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN WENT OF THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THEY TUMBLE TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ONCE MORE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BECOME VERY MILD...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID 60S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND OR SOME FOG COULD FORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE DUE TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AND LITTLE HELP FROM A LOW NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TRENDS OVER THE PAST MODEL CYCLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVOLVING LATE AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 50S CWA-WIDE. FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD JAMES/HUDSON BAY /SLP PROGGED DOWN TO AT OR ABOVE 970MB/...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE GRADIENT TOO WILL BE TIGHT TO RESULT IN BRISK CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE REGION. FROPA OCCURS BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW 0C OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY AND POINTS WEST AND NORTH. THIS TOO SHOULD ACTIVATE THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT FALL BACK THROUGH THE 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EXPECTED ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO CONTRIBUTIONS WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. COMBINE THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEARING SKIES. RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 20S INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 09Z...VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KPSF. SOME MOMENTS OF MVFR/IFR HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT KGFL BRIEFLY. WILL NOT HAVE KPSF AT IFR THROUGH 12Z...WITH A TEMPO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001. AT KGFL...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOG AS IT LOOKS AS IF SOME WILL DEVELOP THERE SHORTLY. AT KPOU AND KALB WE WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MIFG FOR NOW...IMPLYING THAT LIKELY IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT. EARLIER...OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) HAD INDICATED NO FOG ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM) INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID) AND AT KPSF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 13Z ON AS ANY FOG SHOULD EASILY SCOUR OUT BY THEN. A CALM WIND FROM THE SOUTH 5-10KTS WILL TURN TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THEME...WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NEITHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS ON THE WATERSHEDS. OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 100 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RETREATING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF A VERY WEAK WARM WAS WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THERE WERE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF I-90. WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE REGION...LITTLE OR NO WIND...AND THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...TEMPERATURES IN SOME CASES HAD DROP NEAR THEIR PREVIOUS ADVERTISED MINIMUMS. WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSING IN ON THE TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL NOT LIKELY DROP A WHOLE LOT MORE AS SOME PATCHY FOG FORMS. DID ADD MORE PATCHY FOG WITH THIS UPDATE. NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OUTLYING AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY NOVEMBER DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SOME EARLY CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FAIRLY GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING FURTHER...ALTHOUGH SINCE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SHALLOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BRINGING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND MILDER MIN TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WITH WILL TURN BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A SLOW DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSUE...AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES IN SPOTS...FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT OR UP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WE STILL THINK MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE DECIDED TO ADD SOME TEMPO IFR FOG TO KGFL (WHICH ALREADY BRIEFLY SOME) AS WELL AS KPSF FROM 08Z-12Z. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 40...BUT WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BOTH PLACES INTO THE UPPER 30S. OUR BOUNDARY LAYER ENSEMBLE FOG SYSTEM (BLEFS) INDICATED NO FOG ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE HRRR AND NAM_4KM) INDICATED SOME FOG WOULD FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KGFL (ALREADY DID) AND COULD FORM AT KPSF. FOR NOW...WE CONTINUED WITH MIFG ONLY AT THE KALB AND KPOU BUT THEY ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS EITHER. CONFIDENCE AT BEST IS ONLY MODERATE THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM AT BOTH THOSE TAF SITES. PLEASE CHECK BACK AROUND DAYBREAK IF PLANNING TO FLY OUT OF ANY OF OUR AIRPORTS AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE FOG COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP BY THEN. VFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL START FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION 5-10KTS TURNING TO MORE OF WSW DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS. OVERALL EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z. Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through the period with speeds of around 10kts of less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 840 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Already updated forecast for rest of the night. Dense fog and very low clouds are advecting into the area from the south, spreading north/west and east some. Based on HiRes models this will continue to spread out across most of central and east central...and southeast Illinois rest of the night and into tomorrow morning...during the morning commute. Advisory does not include PIA or BMI, or northern areas of central IL, but will be closely monitoring the area as it spreads north to see how north it could get. HiRes models suggest it will cover all of the CWA, but unsure at this time. If confidence increases, then another update and an addition to the advisory will be needed at some point. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints, the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest. Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night progresses with observation of the crossover drop. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends, followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated precipitation. Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear. Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage. The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1 inch of rain in most areas. Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon. Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though, so a slow warming trend is expected next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 Dense fog should cover the area with VLIFR and/or LIFR conditions remainder of the night and into the morning hours. PIA will see it too, but based on satellite trends, looks like just before 07z. Conditions should improve during the late morning, say starting around 15z. Southerly winds should help to break things up and sun is still high enough that it should help burn some of the fog and low stratus off by afternoon. However, some concern with the possibility of a strong inversion, like this morning. If this occurs, then low stratus and some light fog may continue through the afternoon. Bufkit data keeps this around for SPI and PIA, but breaks things up at CMI/DEC/BMI in the afternoon. Not confident with either outcome so will lean toward scattering clouds out for afternoon. Winds should remain southerly to southeasterly through the period with speeds of around 10kts of less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW POTENTIAL PROBLEMS CREEPING INTO SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAINLY STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD COUPLED WITH ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SUNNY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY. FIRST ISSUE WILL BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK JUST TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT HIRES MODEL RH PROGS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST IT COULD CREEP CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE MIXING THIS MORNING. FOR NOW STAYING WITH CLEAR FORECAST PER COLLABORATION AND WILL MONITOR GOES FOG PRODUCT WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE WARM STRATUS CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REACH LOWER 70S ALL AREAS AND SHOULD TACK ON A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY READINGS WITH ANOTHER 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED. TONIGHT WILL BEGIN CLEAR BUT QUESTIONS DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH AND POSSIBLE MOVEMENT NORTH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IL. NAM AND GFS LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH INDICATE THIS SCENARIO. NAM12 DOES APPEAR OVERDONE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS RH IN POTENTIAL SOURCE REGION OF KENTUCKY. WITH THAT SAID THERE IS SUPPORT FROM GFS WHICH ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH MET AND MAV MOS INDICATING CATEGORY 1 FOR VIS TOWARD 12Z BUT NO INDICATION OF STRATUS. WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TODAY IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WOULD BE A BIT FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT TO AT LEAST REPRESENT SOME INCREASE TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION. WOULD EXPECT HIRES MODELS TO SHOW MORE DETAIL LATER TODAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT AND GENERALLY AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NOAM...PLACING OUR REGION IN DEEP S/SW FLOW. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS IS THAT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS RETURNING AS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN TENUOUS MOISTURE DEPTHS AND CPD`S BUT MAY HAVE TO GO HIGHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPORADIC QPF GIVEN INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC FIELDS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE A BIT MEAGER FOR HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION...EVEN ON THURSDAY. A STRAY SPRINKLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS POINT. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...KEPT FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 70-LOWER 70S GIVEN VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LATEST CONSENSUS BLENDS STILL IN THAT RANGE. RECORD HIGHS OF 74-76 LIKELY JUST OUT OF REACH BUT THURSDAY`S RECORD AT KFWA OF 73 (SET IN 2008 AND 1978) MAY BE IN DANGER IF WE MANAGE TO GET SOME SUN. A FEW RECORD WARM LOWS COULD ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY. OTHER MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RAIN AND WIND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP TIMING AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT THAT. WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED AS 50+ KT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS HIGHLY EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF ROBUST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WITH 925MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX THESE WINDS DOWN. SURFACE GRADIENT ALSO VERY STRONG AS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS ON ITS TREK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY AND SOME GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. COOL AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1237 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL HELP BRING FAIR WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER BY THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL HELP AMPLIFY MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WEST INTO THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE OF SAME INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY (UNSEASONABLY MILD/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/DRY). COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WITHIN INVERSION...BUT COVERAGE/IMPACT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE GRIDS...WITH NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING PER LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHY OF RECORD VALUES FOR NOV 3 (76 AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA). && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA HOLDING HIGHS BACK A LITTLE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW KEPT WARM HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL BLEND. RECORD HIGHS ARE GENERALLY 73 TO 76. A LARGE PIECE OF ENERGY AS AN UPPER TROF WILL EJECT EAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MATCHES EARLIER GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO AT BEST MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WINDS MAY BE MORE THEN ENOUGH TO CHANNEL DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS EVEN THROUGH A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY BETWEEN 10 AM EST NORTHWEST TO 7 PM EST SOUTHEAST OVER LIMA. ALSO...GFS NON/CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS ARE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS/58 MPH...SO IT IS LIKELY SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE... DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 VFR TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE CROSS OVER TEMPS MORE OBTAINABLE. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING VFR BUT HRRR MODEL DOES DEVELOP SOME PATCHY IFR FOG JUST NORTHEAST OF KFWA AFTER 08Z. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN IL WHICH IS SPREADING NORTH AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS WEST OF INDIANA BUT SHORT RANGE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJACTORIES SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT NORTHEAST POSSIBLE. DOUBT IT CAN REACH KSBN BY DAYBREAK BUT CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...03/06Z ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS CURRENT MO/IL STRATUS EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO KS/MO AND BUILDING INTO IA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ITS PROGRESSION SO HAVE RELEGATED CIGS TO KDSM/KOTM FOR NOW. HAVE STARTED WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES...BUT IFR OR LIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR SLY WIND GUSTS. MODELS HINT THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO TUE EVENING AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY NOT THERE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME RANGE AS OF YET. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1227 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S. TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING - SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR TOMORROW/S FORECAST. THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT... MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20- 30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15- 25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 720 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD WERE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS TONIGHT. WE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG EARLIER AS KINL WAS DOWN TO 2.5SM AND FOG WAS REPORTED AT KD25. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S. THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH PTYPE. THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. WE STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE EVENING MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF LAKE ON UP THE NORTH SHORE LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ144- 145. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...STEWART AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 ...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TOMORROW ALTHO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DECREASES CONFIDENCE... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS. ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB. SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH. TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED. BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS. REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS... VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL 20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978 HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978 IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH. NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008 HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...HALBLAUB CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS MAY MOVE UP THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD REACH KOMA BY 12-13Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY SCATTERS OUT. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 6 OR 7 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING TO 15 TO 27 KNOTS BY 15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 TREMENDOUS FCST UNCERTAINTY THRU TUE NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FORMATION OF STRATUS. THE NAM...NAM NEST AND THE NSSL WRF SIMILATED FOG PRODUCT ALL FCST LOW STRATUS TO FORM AND RAPIDLY EXPAND NW INTO THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. ACTUAL FOG IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING OVER OK AND SE KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS. WHAT IS TROUBLING IS THE HRRR IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR THE REST OF THIS SHIFT AND THERE MAY NEED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FCST AS WE SEE HOW THIS SITUATION EVOLVES. AS MENTIONED IN THE ST SECTION BELOW...THERE IS HUGE BUST POTENTIAL ON SKY/TEMPS TODAY IF THIS STRATUS FORMS. IF IT DOES... THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE OUT THE WINDOW. UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS...WE WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON CHANGING THE FCST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 CONTINUED NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 240 PM CST...THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN TIED AT BOTH THE GRAND ISLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ...AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW AND OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS EXPECTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS WE THEN WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST JUST FALLING SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD. BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES...THIS FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE...DESPITE GOING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. OF NOTE...IF STRATUS AND FOG DOES DEVELOP...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD END UP BEING A BUST...AS THE MET GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT SAID...ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE OF FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS LOW...AND FELT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE GOING WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20C. ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED IN THE MID TERM PERIODS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DEEP ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...THIS COULD COME INTO QUESTION DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST NAM RUNS...AND ONLY THE NAM...SUGGESTS SOME STRATUS DECK TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ...AS THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE ECMWF DUMPING AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF QPF ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE BUT STILL SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MORE DEFINED THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD...MILD RIDGING AND EVEN SOME ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S. SATURDAY MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. LLWS. REST OF TONIGHT: SKC WITH LLWS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WE ARE WATCHING IT TRY TO FORM ON SATELLITE OVER SE KS AND OK. SOME MODELS AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND IT AND BRING IT INTO THE TERMINALS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. SO FOR NOW MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 00Z TAFS WITH SCT010 AFTER 09Z. S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE: EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. IF STRATUS REMAINS E OF THE TERMINALS... VFR SKC. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES MOVE IN...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL 20Z TO GET RID OF IT. THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW WINDY IT IS. MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND. CONFIDENCE: LOW TUE EVE: VFR SKC WITH LLWS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE STRATUS. S WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: LOW && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 3RD ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD (YEAR) GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 (1978) HASTINGS: 56 78 79 (1978) && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...ROSSI LONG TERM...SALTZMAN AVIATION...HALBLAUB CLIMATE...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY... A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID- HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED... LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
308 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM / /... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY... TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED... LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM / /... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY... TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 235 PM MONDAY... THE REALLY BIG HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE WARMTH EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLOW CLEARING OUT PROCESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE HARD TO BREAK. THE RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY... WITH ONLY 20-30 POP LINGERING FOR MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE... CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT BUT RANGE INTO THE LOWER 70S SE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH BREAKS. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECT A DISTINCT WARMING TREND AS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NE TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH... A WARM UP WILL BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THURSDAY... AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT SE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE FAVORED. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SW RETURN FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES. EXPECT HIGHS 75-80. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE FAVORED TO BEGIN SATURDAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM - THEREFORE WE WILL SIMPLY BUMP UP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 50 PERCENT (JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY) IN THE FAVORED TIME PER THE BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS. THIS WOULD TARGET SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN 60+ (SOME OF WHICH MAY CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH MINS SAT-SUN). HIGHS SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION (55-65 NW TO SE)... AFTER A WEEKEND IN THE 70S SAT... AND 65-75 SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE RISK OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERS AT FAY FOR THE NEXT 9-12 HRS BUT IS LARGELY OVER AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHERE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS BRIEF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT ALL SITES BY NOON WED... LASTING UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO IFR FOR WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 BAND OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. CONCENTRATED HIGHER POPS NORTH OF I94 AND ACROSS MY WEST AS PER LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT. THIS AGREES WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW STRATUS ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ON THE HIGH SIDE MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS CONVERTED TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL UPDATE ALL PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 LOCAL RADARS SHOW LARGE AREA OF RADAR RETURNS...INITIALLY REPRESENTING PRECIPITATION ALOFT...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST CONSHORT/HRRR NOT QUITE KEEPING UP WITH THE TRENDS SO ADJUSTED THE POPS HIGHER QUICKER. AS CLOUDS MOVING TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN LOW. LATEST 00Z NAM NEARLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, REACHING THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENTUALLY A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. SO FAR FORECAST LOOKS OK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT...WHILE A LARGE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK H5 WAVES ACROSS THE REGION AS H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONG (295K SURFACE) WITH THE BEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN A BAND MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POPS TONIGHT AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS STILL FOCUS THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WEST...AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THAT IDEA. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE THERMAL PROFILE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BRING MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN. IF THERE IS ANY SNOW...DO NOT THINK IT WILL ACCUMULATE MUCH AT ALL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THEN COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY...WITH ITS AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTH. AS THE INITIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS...A BROAD SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE THROUGH H850 KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING COLD ADVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOKING AT HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL. A WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY...AND 45 TO 55 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT MAINLY KISN AND POSSIBLY KMOT NOW THROUGH 12Z. PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS KBIS-KJMS. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATING LOW STRATUS...NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INCLUDING KMOT...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. LOW STRATUS LIFTS TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SITES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...CK LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH WITH FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OVER SW TAF SITES. T/TD SPREAD HAS NARROWED AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...STILL FEEL THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ UPDATE... SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE AND WHERE THE DENSEST FOG DEVELOPS... WITH HRRR AND SREF VISIBILITY PROGS GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTING AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS HOWEVER FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. HUFFMAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR E TEXAS. CLEARING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE SO WITH CLEAR SKIES THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG. POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE. OVERALL SHOULD HAVE QUIET CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BEGIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PLAIN THUR NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. PRECIP WATER VALUE WILL AGAIN APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO AGAIN MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS BUT STILL KEEPING WATCH SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE STALLING. COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND DECREASE TEMPS FOR THE AREA. GFS IS STILL QUICK TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. LEARY TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AS FAST AS THE GFS SO WILL GRADUALLY DROP POPS OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO OVERDONE WITH RAIN CHANCES. 39 MARINE... LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW STILL ON TRACK TO DECREASE EVEN MORE AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE RESUMING AND THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK (WEDS ONWARD). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT...STALLING AOA THE UPPER TX COAST ON FRI. SCEC FLAGS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THUR. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING THAT A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT (LATE SAT/EARLY SUN) COULD PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 78 61 77 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 58 78 62 78 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 74 69 74 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...14 AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69 RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S. TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM SPOTS. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE. AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS... MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT FEELS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FG/ST TNGT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FCST HAS NOT CLARIFIED MUCH SINCE THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. TEMPS IN THE N FELL SWIFTLY AFTER SUNSET... RESULTING IN QUICK FOG FORMATION. THAT SEEMED TO INICATE A FOGGY NIGHT AT RHI. BUT...FOG HAS ACTUALLY BECOME LESS PREVELANT IN THE PAST COUPLE HRS. PLUS...STLT NOW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH- MIDDLE CLDS WL ARRIVE LATER IN THE NGT. SO THE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS. FOG WL PROBABLY BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACRS THE N INCLUDING THE RHI TAF SITE. BUT ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WL CONT TO FLUCTUATE...AND DO NOT FORESEE CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING AND REMAINING LOW ALL NGT. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
919 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... FOG HAS SLOWED ITS MORNING MARCH NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT DOES REMAIN DENSE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE VISIBILITY DROPS WERE NOTED EARLIER INCLUDING OUT OUR WINDOW. EVEN AT 9 AM...WEBCAMS INDICATE REDUCTIONS FROM CLEAR VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OVER JUST A FEW MILE DISTANCE ACROSS BOTH DUPAGE AND WILL COUNTIES. WHILE THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY...THE VERY GRADUAL TREND IN SEVERAL WEBCAMS AND THROUGH REPORTS HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT...SO THE COLLABORATED PLAN IS TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS INDICATED ON THE 12Z ILX RAOB IS ONLY AROUND 10 KT AND WITH WARMING AND MIXING ENSUING...THIS GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND HASTEN...LIKELY QUICKEST AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FOG DECK /AROUND I-57/. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM NEAR BLOOMINGTON NORMAL AIRPORT INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 1700 FT THICK WHICH LIKELY SPEAKS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE TOUGHEST TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN THIS AREA BY QUITE A BIT. EVEN IF HOLES DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE AMOUNT OF TIME FOR WARMING IS NOT THAT GREAT HERE IN NOVEMBER. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID 70 READINGS. DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TO NEAR THE WATER TEMPERATURE READINGS...BUT THINKING ANY FOG OVER SHORE AREAS WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF TO AFTER DARK. && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND 1/4SM VSBY. KMD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2 MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY. * MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WEST OF THE TERMIANALS. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z... THE DIVIDING LINE OF THE STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST WEST OF ORD. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN AREA REMAINS WEST WITH NO/LIMITED EASTWARD EXPANSION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE LATER TODAY...WITH STRATUS/FOG BEING MORE PREVALENT SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. HAVE PULLED THE DENSE FOG FROM ORD/MDW. KMD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH THAT VLIFR FOG/STRATUS STAYS WEST OF ORD/MDW. * MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW IN SPECIFIC TIMING. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
818 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE...505 AM CST HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... VLIFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR/NARRE SUGGEST THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH ORD BUT THE CUTOFF LINE APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL COOK COUNTY. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MORE OF NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD EXPANSION WHICH SUPPORTST THIS IDEA. VSBYS DROP TO IFR WHEN STRATUS ARRIVES THEN QUICKLY DROP TO VLIFR AND 1/4SM VSBY. KMD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM IN VLIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING ORD THIS MORNING. LOW IN IF IT WILL REACH MDW. HIGH THAT VSBY DROPS TO 1/2 MILE...MEDIUM- LOW ON LOWER VSBY. * MEDIUM-HIGH IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
532 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... 505 AM CST HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRESS STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PER GOES IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO BRING FOG NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD/INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH AFTER GOOD INITIALIZATIONS THESE HOURLY HIGH-RES FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOO FAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE STRATUS/FOG GETS THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH ITS PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LEE/OGLE...DEKALB...KANE...KENDALL AND WILL COUNTIES TO PREVIOUS DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 322 AM CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...WILL HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 16Z/10 AM CST FOR ILLINOIS COUNTIES SOUTH OF VYS-IKK LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS PULLING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRATUS AND DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS AT MANY SPOTS TO OUR SOUTH) HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND WAS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN LASALLE... LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES AT 0830Z PER GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE LOOP WOULD SPREAD THIS FOG/STRATUS NORTH INTO THE PERU...MORRIS AND KANKAKEE AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH-RES PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG FARTHER NORTH AS WELL...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHWARD PUSH TO ABATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME EROSION AROUND EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING. ADVISORY CAN BE EXTENDED NORTH IF NEEDED. SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER WELL...TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND IMPLY LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF THE FORECAST RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME ERODING STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL TODAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BETWEEN MET/MAV MOS...BRINING 950 HPA TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS STILL YIELDS VERY MILD MID-UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND PLACEMENT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCLUDED FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO ULTIMATELY ADJUST BASED ON STRATUS/FOG COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER A BIT. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AS WELL AS STRATUS...WILL MAKE FOR SOME MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. RATZER && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER...MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20-1.30 INCHES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE WRF/GFS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.40-0.60". SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING A SECOND...BROADER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH DRY SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH THREAT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP. THUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY...AND MUCH COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN AROUND 50/LOW 50S AND MINS IN THE LOW 30S WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT WARMING AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. RATZER && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD END UP BEING THREATENED AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH... CHICAGO ROCKFORD TUE NOV 3RD 75 60 77 59 1987 1975 1938 1938 WED NOV 4TH 74 59 74 55 1978 1975 1978 1938 THU NOV 5TH 79 54 74 52 1978 1956 1978 1956 IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z... * DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. * FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... DENSE FOG AND CIGS 001-003 CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS ABLE TO SLOW ITS ADVANCE. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE SHARPLY REDUCED DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1 SM...AND POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING 1/8 TO 1/4 SM. RAP AND HRRR HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THE SPREAD OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALBEIT SOMETIMES TOO FAST...BUT DO SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 17-19Z LATER TODAY...THOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR MODELS MORE THAN OFTEN WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING WE DO SCATTER OUT SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SW WIND. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. SHRA WITH CHC TSRA LATE. SW WIND. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR PSBL. CHC SHRA EARLY. W WIND. SATURDAY...MVFR PSBL. NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND. MONDAY...VFR. S WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 303 AM CST MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO JAMES BAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AND DEEPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
503 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon. Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...03/12Z ISSUED AT 550 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT AREA OF ST EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST IA TOWARD KDSM WHILE LIFR VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA SINCE 10Z. EXPECT FG/BR TO BEGIN BURNING OFF AFT 1430Z. STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR AFT 16Z WITH WINDS INCREASING MOST AREAS AFT 17Z...MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 00Z. AFT 04Z MAY SEE STRATUS/BR REFORM OVER THE AREA. /REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
525 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI VSBY AT LAMONI. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY. TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY ON... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY. ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 RAPIDLY ADVANCING AREA OF LIFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS REACHED KBRL AND KMLI AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH AIRPORTS THROUGH 15Z. BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KCID. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT. IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU- CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM- ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE. MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK- SCOTLAND. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DMD SHORT TERM...DMD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...DMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1044 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 14Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005MB LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. 925MB STREAMLINES SHOW A TEXTBOOK COL REGION CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES DRAGGING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION (12Z 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 11C/13C AT APX/GRB RESPECTIVELY). MID CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING NORTHWEST/ SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD/EASTERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME LINGERING FOG HANGING TOUGH AROUND ISQ. NO BIG ISSUES LOOKING AHEAD TO THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND OVER EASTERN UPPER LIFT NORTH AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES AND MID LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL BE A WARM DAY EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING...HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT. TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S... ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD... WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S. THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT LOCATION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
631 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT. TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S... ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD... WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S. THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BURNING OFF ANY FOG THAT MIGHT IMPACT SAW EARLY. MORE FOG AND SOME LO CLDS MAY IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW LATER TNGT AS STRENGTHENING S WIND DRAWS MOISTER AIR N INTO THE UPR LKS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF IFR VSBY AT SAW LATE WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND...BUT WENT NO LOWER THAN MVFR FOR NOW AT CMX AS THE WIND DIRECTION THERE WL BE LESS FVRBL. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT IWD WL MAINTAIN VFR WX AT THAT LOCATION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST...WHERE 12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS EXCEEDED 100M. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER THE RDG AND INTO THE UPR LKS...BUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/LGT WINDS/MOIST LLVLS. A WEAK COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY HAS DROPPED INTO NRN LK SUP AND ACRS NRN MN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT FORCING UNDER THE HGT RISES IS PREVENTING ANY PCPN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO THE N OF THE FNT ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LO CLDS IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DRIFTING SLOWLY N IN THE SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF FOG/LO CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TNGT. TODAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH APX...OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE FOG WL BURN OFF BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FNT DROPPING S OVER LK SUP IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT THIS MRNG...THE LLVL WIND FLOW OVER UPR MI TODAY IS PROGGED TO BECOME E TO SE ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES BLDG ACROS NW ONTARIO AND TO THE N OF DVLPG WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FM SFC LO TAKING SHAPE IN THE NW PLAINS STATES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH AS HI AS ARND 12C...THIS FLOW THAT WL UPSLOPE AT MANY LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL WARMTH TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT. IF THE FNT DOES DROP FARTHER TO THE S... ALSO CONCERNED SOME LO CLDS COULD IMPACT THE KEWEENAW. THE BEST CHC FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE 60 WL BE OVER THE W FM BARAGA TO IRONWOOD... WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. TNGT...AS THE LO TO THE W EMERGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW SFC WARM FNT CROSSING THE CWA WITH WSHFT TO THE SSW OVERNGT. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG...THE FROPA WL BE DRY. THE SSW WIND AT H9-95 WL PROBABLY ADVECT THE LLVL MSTR NOW MOVING N IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN LO CLDS AND SOME FOG DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE RESULTING LO CLD/FOG. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRY...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S. THE LO TEMP AT SOME PLACES FM IRONWOOD TO BARAGA MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL BLO 50 WITH DOWNSLOPE WRMG. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGING E. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CONTINUE ITS N TREK IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD AND W NE. S WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 15-20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO JUMP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE SFC LOW EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE SECONDARY LOW OVER NE AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DEEPENING OVER W UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING LIKELY RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL SHIFT TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE E HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z. GIVEN THE MORE W TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A MORE CWA-WIDE WETTING RAIN WITH 0.3 TO 0.7IN OR MORE. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS PAINT AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA 06-12Z FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT WILL BE TWEAKED AS THE TIME NEARS. WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C...AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP FOR THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...HAVE DIMINISHED THE POTENTIAL SINCE THE LAST FCST UPDATE. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW SLOWLY BUILDS A DRY RIDGE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SNOW WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN TAKE HOLD TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DESPITE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BUT MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING TUE AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A TROUGH AVERAGING WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM SD TO NW MN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING NE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING UP THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS QUEBEC. EXPECT NW WINDS INCREASING WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS. ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB. SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH. TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED. BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING) ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 TODAY: VFR SKC. S WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 27 KTS AFTER 16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH TONIGHT: VFR SKC TO START...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO MOVE IN AFTER 09Z. S WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND WILL CONT GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978 HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978 IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH. NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008 HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...HALBLAUB CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRATUS/FOG CONT TO EXPAND NWD EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE MO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO KOMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT STAY E OF KOFK/KLNK. IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MRNG IF THESE CLOUDS GET INTO KOMA BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND PUSHES THE CLOUDS EWD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT AGAIN GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN ON THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN LATER TAF CYCLES. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
610 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... THROUGH TODAY: THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE CWA... ALIGNED WITH THE DISTINCT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF I-95 BUT HAVE COME DOWN MARKEDLY SINCE LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES WRF- NMM / WRF-ARW / SREF / HRRR SUPPORT THE CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT DIMINISHES... ALONG WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER JET CORE OFF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. BUT PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT AT 295K ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 6-7 KFT AREAWIDE AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW... AND HIGHER ACROSS THE SRN CWA. EXPECT POPS FROM 30-90% EARLY THIS MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO 20-60% BY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FEATURES AND MOISTURE. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION FEATURING A STABLE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR MD/DC EXTENDING S/SW INTO WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA ACROSS SRN/ERN SC AND SE NC. THIS WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS NC WILL KEEP THE MOIST STABLE POOL LOCKED IN OVER THE CWA... AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE JUST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS... TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT: THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE... SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR-SURFACE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE NNE TOPPED BY CONFLUENT ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW FROM THE SE AT 850 MB WILL KEEP STEADY MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA... WHILE THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WOBBLES BUT HOLDS OVER WRN/CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT (ABOVE 700 MB) SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS A BIT. CONTINUED CLOUDY... WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS 53-61. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY... A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE WILL HANG ON BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... MOST NOTABLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS A DIFFUSE COASTAL WARM FRONT TRANSLATES WESTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN... BRINGING MILDER SURFACE AIR INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY CENTER INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 800 MB) REMAIN MOIST... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE 925-850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT AND TAPPED INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE... HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE WILL TREND WEAKER THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH 850 MB FLOW WEAKENING A BIT AND VEERING SLOWLY TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SWRLY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS... LOWER THAN TODAY... OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE... WITH LOWEST POPS (SLIGHT CHANCES) ACROSS THE FAR NE CWA WHICH WILL BE LESS SATURATED AND STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIP HERE COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STABLE POOL IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST. BUT JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE IS ANTICIPATED... WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND THE DRIER MID- HIGH LEVEL AIR WILL REDUCE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS FROM 53-63 WED NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...CREATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY DRIZZLE...IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDES. AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A WARMING TREND OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARM AND DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING EARLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL USHER THE FRONT THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND CLEARING WILL ENSUE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ON SUNDAY. A DOSE OF REALITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL DRIFT MAINLY NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 610 AM TUESDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS (IFR TO MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NNE BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR... WHILE JUST ALOFT... A STRONGER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DRAWS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR... BRINGING THICK LOW CLOUDS... AS WELL AS FOG AND AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO THE NOON HOUR (IMPROVING FIRST AT RDU/RWI AND LAST AT FAY)... LASTING INTO THIS EVENING WHEN CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS... LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED... THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME THROUGH WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING WED... LASTING UNTIL LATE WED EVENING WHEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN START TO DROP TO IFR BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THU... PERHAPS REACHING VFR LATE. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE UPPER LOW WAS SPLITTING WITH A PORTION LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE REMAINDER WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. 100KT JET SETS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT PROVIDING DEEP VERTICAL FORCING. BETTER FORCING OCCURS OVER THE NW CWA THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO EASTERN UTAH. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -4C OVER EASTERN UTAH BY 12Z FOR SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR 7000FT. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 8000FT AND ABOVE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7K TO 8K FEET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL ALL LEND THEMSELVES TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR AND RAP REALLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS BAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN IT FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST. THESE MODELS NOT APPEARING TO TAKE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO ACCOUNT THOUGH NAM/GFS LOOK LIKE THEY DO. EITHER WAY...EXPECT HIGH ELEVATIONS TO SEE CONTINUED SNOWFALL WITH SOME LULLS FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING NRN MTNS. THESE MTNS REALLY PREFER NW FLOW AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SW TO W FLOW SO SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IFFY THERE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY OVERRIDE WIND DIRECTION AND PRODUCE WARNING AMT SNOWFALL HOWEVER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. GFS HIGHLIGHTING A DEFORMATION ZONE TO SET UP OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS THURSDAY MORNING WHILE NAM SHOWS NOTHING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BECAUSE IF THE ZONE SETS UP...A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY PRECIP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE DIVIDE BUT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER. FOR FRIDAY...A QUICK WAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM ID/MT AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND FLATTOPS BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...EXPECT A RETURN TO SUN WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. VERY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ENJOY THE WEEKEND! TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACNW AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PROBABLY SOME SNOW. ANOTHER WINDY DAY POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER. NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED ATTM AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW FAVORING THAT AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS COMPARED TO THE CURRENT STORM SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1145 AM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY TO 50 KTS...FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TODAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS OVER WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE -TSRA...WHICH COULD GENERATE SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 070-080 MSL WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MOST SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. MOUNTAINS BECOME OBSCURED WITH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-007- 009-011-017>021. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ003-017. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-008-014. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-013-018-019. UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-025- 027>029. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...PF/JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge axis just to the south this afternoon. Under the ridge, winds are generally light and variable...with most over Illinois getting into the return southerly flow. Dense fog and persistent stratus slowly eroded today, but still some showing up east of I55. Trick for the overnight forecast will center around where the fog will set up. Some disagreement in the models depiction of the higher dewpoints. HRRR did fairly well last night, and it is placing the fog roughly NW of I-55 corridor. Concerned that the fog may be a little further east than this, but the model is responding to the dwindling stratus out there. Leaving the patchy dense fog across the entire CWA, and early in its development with the sky finally clearing towards sunset, radiating out rather quickly, the boundary layer should saturate quickly. East of I-57 has the better chance to miss the fog, where the boundary layer has been able to dry out a bit today with a lot more sunshine. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Wednesday is likely to start out quite foggy once again thanks to persistent low-level inversion overhead. This pesky inversion and associated cloud cover has precluded much in the way of low-level moisture mixing and/or advecting out of the area. Once the fog burns off, another unseasonably mild day is anticipated, with high temperatures around 70 degrees. Once the fog burns off, pretty tranquil weather is expected until a strong system/cold front impacts the area for Thursday night. This system is currently evident as a cut-off upper low along the California coast, which will eject toward the area starting Wednesday. It will eventually pass through as a potent short wave Thursday night, accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Expect widespread showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to move through in the vicinity of the front Thursday night. The potent wave should provide strong shear profiles, but the time of day and weak lapse rates should keep thunderstorm coverage and potential severity minimal. The period from Friday into Sunday night is apt to be quiet, with near normal temperatures, as zonal upper-level flow and surface high pressure dominate. Then, troffing begins to reload over the western U.S. by Monday. The resultant downstream height rises will have temperatures rising back above normal to start the work week. However, pieces of energy ejecting out of the new mean trof also support a periodic risk of showers to finish out the forecast period and beyond. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery, but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly flow with some variability under the ridge. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...BAK AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Problematic forecast with low confidence for long term improvement in category. Some thinning of the stratus seen on vis sat imagery, but will take remainder of afternoon to see significant clearing in most locations. Have taken vis to MVFR, but concern will be patches of IFR cigs until later in the afternoon. Stratus lingering into the afternoon means that llvl moisture will not get a chance to mix out this afternoon, and will see a return of the fog/stratus again this evening with weak south/southeasterly flow with some variability under the ridge. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1103 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 High pressure ridge keeping very light southerly flow over the area. Same high pressure is also helping to reinforce an inversion over the region, trapping moisture in the boundary layer and keeping fog and stratus firmly in place. Dense fog this morning is slowly improving, but still in patches. Stratus is thinning just to the east of the I55 corridor and eroding along the IL/IN border, but little sunshine elsewhere. Expect clearing to take most of the day if anything. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast to drop todays highs with the lack of sunshine and continue the fog and/or stratus into the early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Extent of fog and low cloudiness through the morning and affect on temperatures today the main forecast challenge, at least in the short term. Dense fog has spread northward into our far northern counties early this morning and expect the northward drift to continue this morning. Will continue the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning, and based on some of the forecast soundings from the RAP model, that may need to be extended a few hours later this morning. Surface high pressure to our east will hold across the region today with a light southerly flow expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings showing a shallow layer of moisture present at all sites with not much hope for that to get scoured out today with a substantial low level inversion in place trapping the moisture with only a minor improvement in ceilings after 200 pm seen in soundings along and east of I-57. Based on what occurred to our south yesterday, will be more pessimistic with temperatures this afternoon, especially west of the I-57 corridor where moisture profiles (1000-900 mb) indicate the clouds will be very slow to lift this afternoon. Further east, where soundings indicated a gradual improvement in ceilings this afternoon, will go somewhat warmer, but still below guidance values. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 IL remains in a weak and moist southerly low level flow tonight into mid morning Wed and an inversion trapping low level moisture. So low stratus clouds and fog will likely occur again, with dense fog likely as well as has been the case the past few nights over the area. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 50s. Fog to lift during mid and late Wed morning with stratus clouds breaking up and giving way to partly sunny skies Wed afternoon. Highs Wed will be mostly in the lower 70s, except cooler upper 60s over sw CWA where stratus clouds linger longest, while mid 70s near the Wabash river. 00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridge over the Eastern States during mid week with strong upper level trof over the Rockies. Surface low pressure to deepen as it ejects northeast from the Central Plains Thu to northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday morning and pulls a strong cold front east across IL overnight Thu night. Have slight chances of showers Thu afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and mild highs 70-75F. Breezy south winds 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph to bring in one more unseasonably mild day to central/se IL. Models have trended faster with drier air moving into IL Friday and lower pops to 20-30% Friday morning and dry by Friday afternoon. WNW winds behind cold front Friday to usher in cooler air with highs ranging from upper 50s over IL river valley to mid 60s in southeast IL. An upper level trof moves into the Great Lakes Saturday with a period of clouds and very isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possibly as far sw as I-74. High pressure settles into IL Saturday night and will bring clearing skies and light winds with frost possible with lows in the low to mid 30s. Seasonably cool highs in the 50s this weekend with return of more sunshine on Sunday. Looks like a chance of rain showers returning early next work week with WAA pattern as high pressure drifts east to mid Atlantic States and temps to modify into upper 50s/lower 60s. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF models show another strong upper level trof over the Rockies with a strong surface low pressure ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley during middle of next week, with more unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms for IL just beyond the day 7 forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VLIFR conditions are expected thru at least 15z before a slow improvement in cigs and vsbys is expected for this afternoon. Widespread low vsbys and cigs across the region this morning with forecast soundings suggesting only a gradual improvement in conditions after 16z with a strong low level inversion in place trapping much of the low level moisture in place. Will keep more of a pessimistic trend in cigs and vsbys this morning and then bring improving conditions this afternoon, before another bout of low cigs and vsbys moves back into the forecast area for tonight. Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction today and tonight with speeds of 10 kts or less. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1202 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WITH LINGERING STRATOCU DECK ACRS GENERALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...CHALLENGING TEMP FCST AT HAND FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE GRADIENT POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST-TO- NORTHWEST WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE SUNNY WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. STILL EXPECT THE SUNNY AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DESPITE WEAKER MIXING REGIME AND THERMAL ROBBING HIGHER SFC DPTS THAN YESTERDAY. BUT AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL IL IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT MAY BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AND DECAY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES... BUT THEIR EFFECT ON TEMPERING HIGHS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME OF DAY. ..12.. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RESULT IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT SURGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS AREA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS AN AREA OF FOG OVER NORTHERN MO THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NOW PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 1/2 MI VSBY AT LAMONI. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG FOG WILL LINGER. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY NOVEMBER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS BELOW 1/4 MILE TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO MID MORNING UNTIL DEEP ENOUGH MIXING CAN BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM WHICH SHOULD COVER THE TIME FRAME WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND RAISED DEW POINTS FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MID DAY. TONIGHT IT IS LIKELY THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND HAVE INTRODUCED CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. IF THIS ASSUMPTION IS CORRECT...THEN MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ON THURSDAY...DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NEARLY ALL THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY ON... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA MIGHT BE DRY FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY. ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CHALLENGING FCST WITH A WIDE VARIABILITY POSSIBLE WITHIN A RATHER SMALL AREA OF THE TAF REGION. AREAS THAT HAD THE IFR TO LIFR CLOUDS/FOG SUCH AS THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES MAY BE PRONE AGAIN FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE. SOME OF THE NEW RUN HIRES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT OTHER MORE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUD DECK FIELDS WILL DEVELOP MORE TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WHICH COULD ALLOW CID AND DBQ TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING OR MAYBE WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER MVFR FOG AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE SAME MODELS ALSO KEEPING MLI AND DBQ VFR UNTIL MID WED MORNING WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SEEP INTO THE VCNTY FROM THE WEST. BUT AM WORRIED WITH THE LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE THAT AT LEAST BRL AND MLI MAY GET NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE IDEA OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-11 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IF THEY CAN STAY 7-8 KTS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...12 SYNOPSIS...DMD SHORT TERM...DMD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF EARLY DAY STRATUS WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO PUSH NORTH FROM MISSOURI AND KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE RAP AND HRRR MODEL TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...UP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY TO HOLD ON UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM. CURRENTLY...SOME EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS IN EASTERN KS HAS BEEN NOTED WHILE THE LARGER AREA IN ILLINOIS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MUCH TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ANY LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES BACK UNTIL MIXING BEGINS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...THE LAYER OF STRATUS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO MORE CELLULAR CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN PART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TEMPERATURES HELD BACK EARLY...HIGHS WILL NOT RECOVER AS WARM AS WE EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 15Z PEAKING ABOUT 2 TO 4 PM THEN DIMINISHING BY 6 PM AS AN INVERSION BEGINS TO REFORM. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR GUSTS IN THE MID 20S RANGE EAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30 MPH RANGE FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE FALL AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES FOR WIND OR FIRE WEATHER TODAY WITH RH ON THE RISE AND AMBIENT FLOW REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING MID/LONG RANGE...BUT OTHERWISE MANY ITEMS WERE WELL ON TRACK THUS FAR. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH SOUNDINGS/MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH THE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ND/MN BORDER SW INTO NE COLORADO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY DRIZZLE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP SOME DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT FOCUS THEN ON THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD LATE WEEK...WITH THE SFC LOW PUSHING INTO MN/NW IA BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. CWA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY THURSDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME MUCAPE AND STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. NAM INDICATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 21-00Z. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND SOME INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS WELL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATING FACTOR COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOCUS THEN REALLY TURNS TOWARD THE PERIOD BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD...AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC HINT AT A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS IT APPROACHES THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...03/18Z ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DECENT MIXING WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE STRATUS FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA I EXPECT LOW STRATUS/FOG TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... IT IS AMAZING HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS NOW WHERE OUR CWA LINES ARE UNDER THEIR BASES. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING HOMOGENEOUS SE FLOW AT 10KTS UNDER THE INVERSION AT 6KFT. SEVERAL DECKS WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NOT MUCH MEASURABLE NOTED ANYWHERE. THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME LIGHT QPF ALL DAY AND EVEN ENHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MEASURING DRIZZLE IS NEVER EASY...BUT MAY SOME ENHANCED QPF NEAR ANY OF OUR MANY LAKES. OTHERWISE...TOMORROW MAY AGAIN SEE SOME DREARY CONDITIONS EARLY BUT WITH INVERSION AROUND TOMORROW COULD BE A THREEPEAT ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT WIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD SOAKING OF A LINE...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS AND EVEN A DAY 3 SLIGHT FOR OUR NW. THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN AND LAYS DOWN OVER I-20 ON GFS AND I-30 STILL WITH QPF EARLY THIS WEEKEND ON EURO. HOPEFULLY WE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WILL ARRIVE WITH 6 HOUR BLOCK WX AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL COOL US DOWN...BUT OFTEN HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING SKIES OR WEATHER. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MORE EL NINO RAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PICK UP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PACE. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 60 78 64 78 / 10 10 20 40 MLU 61 77 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 57 76 62 72 / 10 10 20 80 TXK 59 76 63 73 / 10 10 20 60 ELD 57 75 62 77 / 10 10 20 40 TYR 59 78 65 76 / 10 10 20 70 GGG 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 50 LFK 60 78 65 80 / 10 10 20 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO APPROACH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. ITS STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...WHICH LIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD DEVELOPED SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...COOL AND HUMID NE TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS ADVECTING THE SATURATED MARINE LAYER INLAND INTO NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THE MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TREND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE RAPID LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AS INLAND CLEAR AREAS COOL OFF...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MORE EASILY CONQUER INLAND AREAS. THE HRRR MODELED CEILING/VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM 925 HPA AND 950 HPA RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...HAVE BEEN MATCHING THE LATEST MARINE LAYER TRENDS...SO USED THESE MODELS AS THE BEST REFERENCES FOR FORECASTING THE MARINE LAYER INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARINE/TERRAIN FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. EARLIER TODAY...THERE WAS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA...BUT IT HAS SINCE BURNED OFF IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. THE 4 KM NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL REAPPEAR AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FIRST IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EXPANDING TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. SINCE THE NAM WAS MATCHING EARLIER SATELLITE TRENDS WELL...LEANING ON ITS SOLUTION. ONCE THE SUN SETS...THERE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...BACK TO NEAR SATURATION AND ALLOW THAT STRATUS LAYER TO REAPPEAR. THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND THE DRIZZLE WILL HELP BRING DOWN VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PARTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN CASE THE STRATUS DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SUCH AS INDICATED BY THE 4 KM NAM. TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...USING A LITTLE WEIGHTING FOR THE COOLER NAM FOR THE BLEND...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE SOUTH CLEARS...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTERACTING WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BL CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACT TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS FROM AROUND THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND ACT TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND KEEP THEM COLD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND FEEL EVEN COLDER AS A STRONG NWLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COLD/ACTIVE NWLY FLOW WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL INDUCE A NE WIND OFF THE LAKE AND COMBINE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT TO SUPPORT AN INVERSION WHICH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE DLH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 45 57 53 55 / 10 10 30 70 INL 44 55 43 47 / 10 30 40 70 BRD 51 61 49 52 / 10 10 40 60 HYR 50 62 55 59 / 10 10 20 70 ASX 46 61 54 60 / 10 10 20 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-146- 147. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>145. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...TENTINGER AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LARGE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. AGREED WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ASSESSMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SEE NO REASON WE WON/T SEE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF STRATUS AND FOG... WITH THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS TO SOME EXTENT. THE NAM... AS ALWAYS... IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... BUT THE GFS AND RAP ARE SHOWING THINGS AS WELL NOW. SO... INCREASED CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... AND INCLUDED SOME FOG/DRIZZLE WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEEPEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CORRESPONDINGLY... DECREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLOUDS NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED AND/OR CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED... BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE PLAINS. FRONTAL TIMING IS NOW PRETTY SIMILAR AMONGST THE GUIDANCE... LOOKING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CLEARING THE EAST BY MID EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN/CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST... WITH MOST OF OUR LOOKING TO COME ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME FRONT-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DPVA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL AS TO WHEN PCPN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ON HOW LONG FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER SOME DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS IS ABLE TO WRAPAROUND SUFFICIENTLY BACK INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW... STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH BRINGS THINGS ACROSS WEST TO EAST FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY... WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOOK TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT... SO OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW LOOKING TO BE PRETTY DRY GIVEN IT HAVING A WESTERN CONUS/ROCKIES ORIGIN. THE EVENTUAL GULF/OCEANIC MOISTURE RETURN DOESN/T LOOK TO BE INGESTED UNTIL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WITH IT TRYING TO CLIP OUR AREA LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY LIFR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF IFR THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT A BROAD SWATH FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO EASTERN TEXAS. SSE FLOW WILL BRING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MN AND WESTERN WI. 12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD IFR/LIFR...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE LATER WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IT MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY BY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE SSE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LITTLE RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. KMSP...SKC EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. MIGHT BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15. MAIN ISSUE IS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIFR CEILINGS. 12Z MODELS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF IFR THAN THE 00Z/06Z MODELS... AND CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH INDICATE THIS TREND IS CORRECT. LOOKING AT 07Z OR SO FOR THIS TO DEVELOP...BUT THAT COULD VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS. THE INVERSION WILL HELP KEEP IFR THROUGH WED MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW. FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 FOCUSED ON CLOUD COVER FOR THIS UPDATE. CONCERNED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD...FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODELED CEILING...AS WELL AS THE RAP13 AND 4KM NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...ARE INDICATING HUMID LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY RESULT IN OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER MOVING INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. THOSE THREE SEEM TO CORRESPOND PRETTY WELL TO WHERE THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL OVERCAST LAYER OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO MY CONFIDENCE LIES WITH THESE THREE MODELS. HOWEVER...THINK THE 4 KM NAM MAY BE TOO FAST BRINGING THE CLOUD COVER IN...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE A RECIPE FOR FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS AREA...BUT WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS THREAT WHEN MAKING UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE 4 KM NAM. THE MODEL IS INDICATING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN RAPID SATURATION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE 4 KM NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WHICH SATELLITE SHOWS STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD. UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AT 08Z. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED TO BE BISECTING NE MN FROM NW WI. SFC WIND WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NE MN. PATCHY FOG AND CIRRUS WAS OVER NW WI. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL DO ITS TYPICAL BENDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE COOLER/DENSE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LAKE. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE LAKE AS A RESULT. WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH STIFF WAA THROUGH THE DAY AND H85 TEMPS REACHING TO NEAR 10C ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...TO THE TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST/WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND THE ONSET OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NE MN FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT CLIPS THIS AREA IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS AS A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOST SFC LOW. AS SUCH...WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON THE SW FLOW. WEAK PIECES OF EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CHECK...EXCEPT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR A STALLED FRONT. A DRIZZLE SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS SITUATION AND HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. THIS IS SEEN IN THE QPF FIELDS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS. THE ECMWF IS FAVORING MORE OF A SHOWER EVENT...BUT IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BEYOND... WITH CHANCES OF NOVEMBER THUNDER IN THE CWA AS WELL AS WINTRY MIXES AND SNOWFLAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 00Z THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... STACKED FROM THE SFC TO 700MB MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF MINNESOTA... WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO COLORADO. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LOFT IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT... WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 8 G/KG IN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SPC SREF FCST SOUNDING INDICATES THERE MAY BE MUCAPES NEAR 400 J/KG (WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT HIGH... BUT IT IS A BIT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR) JUST PRIOR TO THE FROPA AFTER 18Z. ALSO THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN IN THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY. THEREFORE... HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON THE GFS`S FCST BOUNDARY LAYERED INSTABILITY... WHICH ENDED UP BEING A BIT WEST OF SPC`S OUTLOOK... WHICH INCLUDES MAINLY HINCKLEY UP TO DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE... AND EAST TO OUR NW WISCONSIN COUNTIES. BY 00Z FRIDAY... THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE... BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHLAND BY MID-DAY FRIDAY... AND WILL HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY... ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 DEGREES. HOWEVER A NEW DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND IT... AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE... RAIN ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW... THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SMALL TO MEASURE. THE COOL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A CHANGE WILL COME SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM... AND SUNSHINE ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN... NEARING HIGHS OF 50 AND LOWS NEAR 40. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WIDESPREAD MVFR, IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF 11Z DUE TO LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL FOG. THESE ANKLE-DEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SHOULD HOLD STEADY AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT AFTER 15Z. TEMPORARY VFR WILL COME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AS STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER... BUT DEVELOPING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 53 44 59 54 / 0 10 10 20 INL 50 44 56 44 / 0 20 20 40 BRD 63 53 63 48 / 0 10 10 30 HYR 65 51 64 54 / 0 10 10 20 ASX 59 43 63 54 / 0 10 10 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>143-146- 147. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...MCLOVIN AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Most of the stratus clouds has dissipated this afternoon, except for a band across southwest IL from SAR north through 3LF. Stratus clouds along with fog is forecast to redevelop across much of the area later this evening and overnight. Some of this fog may be dense with poor visibilities down to around one quarter of a mile. It appears that the most likely area for dense fog will be across southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly south and east of STL where the models were depicting the highest surface dew points, highest values of relative humidity at 925 mb, and the lightest surface/boundary layer winds. Lows tonight will be at least 10 degrees above normal and slightly warmer than last night due to the low level cloud cover expected to develop along with the relatively high surface dew points for early November. GKS .LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Believe that stratus/fog trends of today will repeat once again during the day tomorrow. As normal, specifics WRT location of main cloud deck a bit blurry, but HRRR (which did a very job with last nights/this mornings trends), suggest axis of main cloud deck will be centered from southeast MO, through the STL area, into central and northern IL by daybreak, with patchier fog/stratus expected outside of this cloud deck. This cloud deck should begin to erode by mid morning, much like it did today. However, it is interesting to note that the HRRR guidance suggests some "holes" in the cloud deck, and NAM low level RH progs seem to suggest moisture is a bit more stratified than today. These trends, along with the general idea that there should be a bit more mixing, at least suggest that low clouds may not be quite a persistent as today. Due to the considerable uncertainly of location of afternoon cloudiness, have generally maintained mild early November highs in the middle 60 to lower 70s for tomorrow. Additional...and possibly signficant...adjustments may be necessary if/when short term cloud trends become more clear. The other, and possibly more significant, short range concern remains with the storm system approaching the region on Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Models are maintaining fairly good run to run continuity in ejecting strong shortwave rapidly out of the western CONUS upper trof and into our area by Thursday evening. Still appears that lower level moisture advection and associated isentropic ascent ahead of the upper system will bring some threat of precip into the area during the day on Thursday, but certainly the highest PoPs should be focused on the Thursday night time frame when large scale UVV with shortwave, cold front, and deep moisture all interact over the region. Models are increasingly suggesting two areas of convection Thursday night. One round of storms appear to develop near the Red River Thursday afternoon ahead of the intense shortwave, with this activity then racing into southern Missouri during the evening due to the strong upper level wind fields. Meanwhile, another area of convection should be co-located with cold front as it surges across the area during the late evening and overnight hours. Pattern is still suggestive of a high shear/low CAPE cool season severe weather threat, with damaging winds the primary concern attm. Although there are some timing differences, all solutions indicate a very rapid shutdown to the precip threat very late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Some of the slower solutions would suggest a threat of lingering light rain in our far eastern counties early Friday morning, but to avoid flip-flopping forecast will maintain going trends and keep forecast for Friday dry attm. Remains of west coast trof is forecast to pass through the Mississippi Valley early Saturday, allowing a seasonably cool Canadian high to push into the area over the weekend with highs in the 50s. However, the progressive UA pattern will be allowing another trof to dig into the western U.S. early next week. The return flow behind the retreating Canadian airmass, combined with W/SW mid level flow which will allow several weak shortwaves to migrate through the area, will bring a chance of showers back into the area for the start of the new work week. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1027 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2015 Visibilities should continue to gradually improve in UIN and the St Louis metro area late this morning and this afternoon. Seeing erosion of the stratus and fog west of UIN and west-southwest of the St Louis metro area on the latest satellite images. Will likely have a least a brief period of VFR conditions late this afternoon as the shallow, thin stratus clouds scatter out due to daytime heating, drying and mixing. Stratus and fog should redevelop across much of the area late this evening and overnight and continue through much of Wednesday morning. Weak sely surface winds will continue on the western periphery of the surface ridge. Specifics for KSTL: Visibilities will continue to improve late this morning and this afternoon with the cloud ceiling slowly rising. It appears that the stratus clouds will likely scatter out late this afternoon. Status and fog should redevelop late this evening and overnight with abundant shallow surface/boundary layer moisture. IFR conditions should improve to VFR conditions again Wednesday afternoon as the s-sely surface wind strengthens to around 8 kts. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 54 73 58 72 / 5 5 5 30 Quincy 52 67 56 69 / 0 0 5 30 Columbia 53 72 56 69 / 0 0 5 50 Jefferson City 53 73 55 70 / 0 0 5 50 Salem 55 72 58 72 / 10 10 5 30 Farmington 54 71 56 69 / 10 10 5 40 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AND DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK AND AREA OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING THIS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND FOG...AND LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN STRONG WAA REGIME THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE OUT OF MONTANA ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WITH AREAS OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE 06Z-15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD IN 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT TIMES PRIOR TO 00Z AND AGAIN AFTER 15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE DECISION TO GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW APPEARS TO BE HOLDING. BUT WE DO SEE A NEWLY DEVELOPING PATCH OF STRATUS BETWEEN HJH-BIE. OVERALL...BELIEVE THE FCST IS ON THE TRACKS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD NOT PUT IT IN JEOPARDY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 PLEASE SEE CLI SECTION FOR SUMMARY ON THREATENED RECORDS. ALOFT: AN AMPLIFIED WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE WAS IN PLACE AND THIS CONFIG WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINTAINING SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE: A POORLY DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NRN NEB TO LOW PRES OVER UT...WHERE IT WAS BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING SW INTO SRN CA. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WY TODAY AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SD BY DAYBREAK WED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS WELL...KEEPING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FCST REALLY HINGES ON ONE THING: LOW STRATUS. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS/OK. THE CURRENT AND PAST RUNS OF THE NAM/NAM NEST/NSSL WRF AND THE NMM HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SPREADING STRATUS INTO THE FCST AREA. THE HRRR HAS NOT AND THE 00Z WRF-ARW IS NOW IN THE HRRR CAMP...KEEPING IT PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS/NEB. SO UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...THIS FCST WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR AND WRF-ARW. SO THAT MEANS WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST WITH SUNNY/BREEZY NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. S WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH. TONIGHT: SHOULD BE CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS BRING THE STRATUS BACK IN. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE WRF-ARW WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA BRINGS IT IN AFTER 12Z/WED. BREEZY AND VERY MILD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM ORD-LEXINGTON-CAMBRIDGE. S WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE NAM HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE. THIS LEADS TO CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES AND THEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS HAD LESS PRECIPITATION AND HAS A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL OFF THURSDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 INTERESTING TAF PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST YES ESPECIALLY EAST OF KGRI AND WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION IN KGRI TAF. HAVE NOT WENT AS PESSIMISSTIC WITH KEAR JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND VSBYS MAY DROP ON EDGE OF STRATUS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DID NOT MENTION WIND SHEAR...BUT IF WINDS DO DROP OFF THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALS...CURRENT FORECAST...AND RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORMAL FORECAST HIGH RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 57 78 79 IN 1978 HASTINGS: 56 78 79 IN 1978 IN ADDITION...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF WED NOV 4TH. NORMAL FORECAST LOW RECORD GRAND ISLAND: 32 54 51 IN 2008 HASTINGS: 33 54 53 IN 2008 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...FAY CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS SHOWN FOG...EVEN DENSE...THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED THE THINKING IS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RAP AND HRRR FORECASTS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL THROUGH 15 UTC WEDNESDAY. LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BOTH RUNS OF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STRONG FORCING WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION - MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK/FORT YATES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTH AND WEST. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES...WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH COLD ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH CENTRAL. THURSDAY MORNING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND ADAMS/GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES. THEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE JAMES VALLEY...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES/DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ANY SNOW WOULD END AND/OR CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING COOL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR A SLOW WARM-UP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. FOR SITES KBIS AND KJMS LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF SITES KISN AND KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND BESIDES A FEW SCATTERED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MOST ALL TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012- 013. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...MM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WYOMING. BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES EXIST BENEATH THIS RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS EVIDENT BY A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH...CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED. SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW MAY DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR NE WI IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE. THAT IS WHEN THE SREF DEVELOPS LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI. PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER ILLINOIS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY DENSE FOG DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...WHERE THE SREF IS THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL NOT HAVE THE BENEFIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY FEED OF AIR THAT WILL BRING IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...AND ALSO BASED ON TREADS OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THINK LOW STRATUS WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE AND COULD HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING CLOUDS FORM AS FORECAST...THEY WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING CURVE AND HIGH TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS BALMY READINGS. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REPLACES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS STARTED TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE ECMWF SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS KEPT A WEAKER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF ANY COLD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS EITHER INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT OR ALREADY IN PLACE IF THE STRATUS DECK NEVER MIXES OUT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ONE LAST WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SUN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI...BUT THINK MOST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE...SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO MUCH AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A VERY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN MN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW PLUS ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CANADIAN SHOWING MORE PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GFS SHOWING THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. DESPITE DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH IT WILL RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH 70-90 POPS. RAIN TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TOTALS IN THE GRIDS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AS A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY (CAPES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG) CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SHUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM RACES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTH. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM AIR BELOW 2000FT TO MAKE A CHANGE OVER THE SNOW VERY DIFFICULT OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY OVER VILAS CO...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A WNW FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS COULD FALL TO NEAR MINIMUMS IN SOME PLACES. BEST PROBABILITY FOR TIMING WOULD FALL INTO THE 09Z-15Z RANGE. LOW CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS ARE HANGING TOUGH AT THIS HOUR...SO THE LOW CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......MPC