Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/02/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY
AND THAT HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE SEAWARD
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN START TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD, WE
WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE THE
WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALOFT, WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO FILL IN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE SUN
SHINING BRIGHTLY OUT THERE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 60
THIS AFTERNOON.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOUR AIR TEMPERATURE GRIDS AT 930
AM UPDATE. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH MAKES IT WAY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY AT THAT
TIME SO WE ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT MORE ON THE MILD SIDE. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST.
OVERALL, A NICE NIGHT TO BE OUT TRICK OR TREATING. WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR HALLOWEEN, A JACKET MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB: THE PRIMARY ZONAL JETSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
RACES TO THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE IN TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING PROBABLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SPREAD
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING AND TRACK OF THAT MID LEVEL
CENTER TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT LEAVES US WITH TWO OPTIONS...IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES--DRY, OR
IF THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MUCH MORE
STRUCTURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, MORE AKIN TO THE 00Z/31
OPERATIONAL ECMWF, THEN WE RECEIVE A DOUSING OF RAIN, AT LEAST
FOR THE DELMARVA AND S NJ MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH MEANS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OF NORMAL. RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT KGED TO NEAR NORMAL KACY AND KILG,
AND ONE HALF TO AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
THROUGH KTTN,KMPO, KABE AND KRDG. NOVEMBER IS GOING TO GET OFF TO
A VERY WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN AROUND 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAYTIME MAX`S POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/31 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/31 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/31 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
THE WPC MAX/MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50M 50 WITH THE 00Z31 GFS
MEXMOS TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING WITH MAYBE A MID LEVEL
GENERATED WAA SPRINKLE BUT WETTING MEASURABLE (0.01) UNLIKELY I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST, WHEREAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
APPEARS TO BE I-78 NORTHWARD OVER E PA AND NW NJ. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70
KT 700MB WLY SPEED MAX OVER LERIE AT 12Z SUNDAY AND N CENTRAL PA
AT 18Z SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE WORDING AS COVERAGE SCT OR
ISOLATED AND DIDN`T ADD SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST OF I-95.
FWIW...ITS ONLY THE OP GFS/ECMWF THAT OFFERS RAIN NE PA N OF I-78
WITH TRACE OR NIL 00Z/31 UK/GGEM/NAM.
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON (NO RAIN) WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL UP INTO
THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATE.
EVENING WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT. RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN VICINITY EASTON MD TO
GEORGETOWN DE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY. NORTH WINDS...SPEEDS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
ITS THE WET 00Z/31 NAM AND ECMWF VERSUS THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED
UK/GGEM/GFS. FOR NOW LETS FIGURE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
UP THROUGH THE DELMARVA TO CAPE MAY NJ BUT WITH AN UNCERTAIN NORTHERN
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE: WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ANY AMOUNTS. POPS MAY NEED A SUBSTANTIAL BOOST
IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. STRUCTURE OF
THE DEPARTING TEXAS SHORT WAVE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
WE DO APPEAR TO BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INDUCING WAA LIFT
WITH RESPECT TO THE RR QUAD OF THE 160KT 250MB JET AT 18Z MONDAY-
WHICH IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REFERENCE TO 250MB
REPRESENTS THE GENERAL UPPER LVL JET STRUCTURE AT THAT TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY RAIN ENDING DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ. CLEARING.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST OF WHAT FOLLOWS IS DIRECT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY TO BE A NON FACTOR AND IN ITS WAKE A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONE COULD THROW MANY SUPERLATIVES
AROUND TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL ALSO. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AFTER
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE SOUNDINGS ARE DRY.
CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH OUR CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FROM WPC GRIDS. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NOW THAT FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT RDG, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THEN SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST, MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER
IN ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING MAY CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY VCNTY KABE-
KRDG NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
A WEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DELMARVA
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS, MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ AIRPORTS.
VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT EXPECTED KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KRDG/KTTN. NORTH
WIND. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS GROUP OF TAF SITES IS AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PA5TCHY
IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN SOME OF THE NON URBAN AIRPORTS. LIGHT
WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH NEARSHORE INSTABILITY FOR GUSTS AROUND
25 KT TO AFFECT MARINE TRAFFIC TRANSITING IN AND OUT OF PORT,
ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE OUTER WATERS
EAST OF MONMOUTH COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS 25 KT. CONFIDENCE ON 25 KT
GUST OCCURRENCE LOWERS WHEN HEADING SOUTH, DOWN ADJACENT TO CAPE
MAY COUNTY NJ.
SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHWEST AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE.
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY. WE MAY NEED AN SCA FOR THE DE ATLANTIC
WATERS DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY
AND THAT HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE SEAWARD
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN START TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD, WE
WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE THE
WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALOFT, WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO FILL IN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE SUN
SHINING BRIGHTLY OUT THERE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 60
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH MAKES IT WAY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY AT THAT
TIME SO WE ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT MORE ON THE MILD SIDE. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST.
OVERALL, A NICE NIGHT TO BE OUT TRICK OR TREATING. WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR HALLOWEEN, A JACKET MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB: THE PRIMARY ZONAL JETSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
RACES TO THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE IN TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING PROBABLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SPREAD
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING AND TRACK OF THAT MID LEVEL
CENTER TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT LEAVES US WITH TWO OPTIONS...IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES--DRY, OR
IF THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MUCH MORE
STRUCTURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, MORE AKIN TO THE 00Z/31
OPERATIONAL ECMWF, THEN WE RECEIVE A DOUSING OF RAIN, AT LEAST
FOR THE DELMARVA AND S NJ MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH MEANS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OF NORMAL. RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT KGED TO NEAR NORMAL KACY AND KILG,
AND ONE HALF TO AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
THROUGH KTTN,KMPO, KABE AND KRDG. NOVEMBER IS GOING TO GET OFF TO
A VERY WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN AROUND 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAYTIME MAX`S POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/31 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/31 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/31 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
THE WPC MAX/MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50M 50 WITH THE 00Z31 GFS
MEXMOS TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING WITH MAYBE A MID LEVEL
GENERATED WAA SPRINKLE BUT WETTING MEASURABLE (0.01) UNLIKELY I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST, WHEREAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
APPEARS TO BE I-78 NORTHWARD OVER E PA AND NW NJ. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70
KT 700MB WLY SPEED MAX OVER LERIE AT 12Z SUNDAY AND N CENTRAL PA
AT 18Z SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE WORDING AS COVERAGE SCT OR
ISOLATED AND DIDN`T ADD SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST OF I-95.
FWIW...ITS ONLY THE OP GFS/ECMWF THAT OFFERS RAIN NE PA N OF I-78
WITH TRACE OR NIL 00Z/31 UK/GGEM/NAM.
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON (NO RAIN) WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL UP INTO
THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATE.
EVENING WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT. RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN VICINITY EASTON MD TO
GEORGETOWN DE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY. NORTH WINDS...SPEEDS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
ITS THE WET 00Z/31 NAM AND ECMWF VERSUS THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED
UK/GGEM/GFS. FOR NOW LETS FIGURE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
UP THROUGH THE DELMARVA TO CAPE MAY NJ BUT WITH AN UNCERTAIN NORTHERN
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE: WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ANY AMOUNTS. POPS MAY NEED A SUBSTANTIAL BOOST
IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. STRUCTURE OF
THE DEPARTING TEXAS SHORT WAVE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
WE DO APPEAR TO BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INDUCING WAA LIFT
WITH RESPECT TO THE RR QUAD OF THE 160KT 250MB JET AT 18Z MONDAY-
WHICH IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REFERENCE TO 250MB
REPRESENTS THE GENERAL UPPER LVL JET STRUCTURE AT THAT TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY RAIN ENDING DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ. CLEARING.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST OF WHAT FOLLOWS IS DIRECT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY TO BE A NON FACTOR AND IN ITS WAKE A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONE COULD THROW MANY SUPERLATIVES
AROUND TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL ALSO. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AFTER
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE SOUNDINGS ARE DRY.
CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH OUR CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FROM WPC GRIDS. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND THEN SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST, MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER IN ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING MAY CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY VCNTY KABE-
KRDG NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
A WEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DELMARVA
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS, MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ AIRPORTS.
VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT EXPECTED KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KRDG/KTTN. NORTH
WIND. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS GROUP OF TAF SITES IS AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PA5TCHY
IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN SOME OF THE NON URBAN AIRPORTS. LIGHT
WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH NEARSHORE INSTABILITY FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
TO AFFECT MARINE TRAFFIC TRANSITING IN AND OUT OF PORT,
ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE OUTER WATERS
EAST OF MONMOUTH COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS 25 KT. CONFIDENCE ON 25 KT
GUST OCCURRENCE LOWERS WHEN HEADING SOUTH, DOWN ADJACENT TO CAPE
MAY COUNTY NJ.
SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHWEST AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE.
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY. WE MAY NEED AN SCA FOR THE DE ATLANTIC
WATERS DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG 527
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 527
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY
AND THAT HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE SEAWARD
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN START TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD, WE
WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE THE
WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALOFT, WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO FILL IN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE SUN
SHINING BRIGHTLY OUT THERE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 60
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH MAKES IT WAY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY AT THAT
TIME SO WE ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT MORE ON THE MILD SIDE. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST.
OVERALL, A NICE NIGHT TO BE OUT TRICK OR TREATING. WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR HALLOWEEN, A JACKET MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB: THE PRIMARY ZONAL JETSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
RACES TO THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE IN TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING PROBABLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SPREAD
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING AND TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT LEAVES US WITH TWO OPTIONS...IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES--DRY, OR
IF THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MUCH MORE
STRUCTURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, MORE AKIN THIS 00Z/31 OP ECMWF,
THEN WE RECEIVE A DOUSING OF RAIN, AT LEAST FOR THE DELMARVA AND S
NJ MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH MEANS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT THE SURFACE AS WELL BY
MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OF NORMAL. RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT KGED TO NEAR NORMAL KACY AND KILG,
AND ONE HALF TO AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
THROUGH KTTN,KMPO, KABE AND KRDG. NOVEMBER IS GOING TO GET OFF TO
A VERY WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN AROUND 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAYTIME MAX`S POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/31 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/31 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/31 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING WITH MAYBE A MID LEVEL
GENERATED WAA SPRINKLE BUT WETTING MEASURABLE (0.01) UNLIKELY I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST, WHEREAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
APPEARS TO BE I-78 NORTHWARD OVER E PA AND NW NJ. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70
KT 700MB WLY SPEED MAX OVER LERIE AT 12Z SUNDAY AND N CENTRAL PA
AT 18Z SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE WORDING AS COVERAGE SCT OR
ISOLATED AND DIDN`T ADD SPRINKLES MUCH FURTHER EAST OF I-95.
FWIW...ITS ONLY THE OP GFS/ECMWF THAT OFFERS RAIN NE PA N OF I-78
WITH TRACE OR NIL 00Z/31 UK/GGEM/NAM.
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON (NO RAIN) WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL UP INTO
THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATE.
EVENING WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT. RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN VICINITY EASTON MD TO
GEORGETOWN DE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY. NORTH WINDS...SPEEDS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
ITS THE WET 00Z/31 NAM AND ECMWF VERSUS THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED
UK/GGEM/GFS. FOR NOW LETS FIGURE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
UP THROUGH THE DELMARVA TO CAPE MAY NJ BUT WITH AN UNCERTAIN NORTHERN
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE: WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ANY AMOUNTS. POPS MAY NEED A SUBSTANTIAL BOOST
IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. STRUCTURE OF
THE DEPARTING TEXAS SHORT WAVE FOR THE MID ALTC COAST WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
WE DO APPEAR TO BE IN A GOOD SPOT REGARDING THE RR QUAD OF THE
160KT 250MB JET 18Z MONDAY (MARITIMES AND USED 250 AS EXAMPLE OF
UPPER LVL JET STRUCTURE)
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY RAIN ENDING DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ. CLEARING.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST OF WHAT FOLLOWS IS DIRECT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY TO BE A NON FACTOR AND IN ITS WAKE A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONE COULD THROW MANY SUPERLATIVES
AROUND TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL ALSO. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AFTER
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE SOUNDINGS ARE DRY.
CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH OUR CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FROM WPC GRIDS. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND THEN SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST, MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER IN ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING MAY CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY VCNTY KABE-
KRDG NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
A WEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DELMARVA
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS, MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ AIRPORTS.
VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT EXPECTED KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KRDG/KTTN. NORTH
WIND. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS GROUP OF TAF SITES AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PA5TCHY
IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN SOME OF THE NON URBAN AIRPORTS. LIGHT
WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH NEARSHORE INSTABILITY FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
TO AFFECT MARINE TRANSITING IN AND OUT OF PORT, ESPECIALLY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MONMOUTH
COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS 25 KT. CONFIDENCE ON 25 KT GUST OCCURRENCE LOWERS
WHEN DOWN ADJACENT TO CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ.
SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHWEST AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE.
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY. WE MAY NEED AN SCA FOR THE DE ATLANTIC
WATERS DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENTS EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 403
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG 403
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 403
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 403
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Skies are clear and winds are out of the south. Based on satellite
trends and model guidance, current conditions are expected to
continue remainder of the night. Fog is finally developing in
southeast IL this evening and will likely continue overnight. So,
will have to make some adjustments in the southeast for more light
fog early than current forecast. Will not issue fog advisory at
this time, but will continue to monitor for possibility later
tonight. Update will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the
upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are
approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave
across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix
out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s
across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out
from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue
over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due
to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several
hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge
axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows
some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement
all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some
better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out
this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog
mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of
I-70 to address this concern.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states
Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL
forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to
central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low
70s and light southerly winds.
By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep
trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low
level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the
development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have
increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will
continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low
cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low
70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday.
Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the
Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in
the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for
a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest
model trends
Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure
settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This
should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and
high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential
fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight and
moving northward. Not very confident with this and sunshine today
should have mixed out the moisture from the recent rain, so will
continue to hold off mentioning of this and take a closer look
before next package. Winds should be southerly to southwesterly
through the forecast period with speeds around 10kts or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Main shortwave was moving across southeast Iowa and northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Convection over the lower Mississippi
Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting
in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last
few hours. Back edge of the rain shield now generally along the
Illinois River, and the short-range models have been fairly
consistent with drying out most areas west of I-55 by sunset and the
eastern CWA by 10 pm. Refinements in the hourly precipitation grids
have taken this into account, and have gone with a dry forecast
after midnight.
Some concern remains with the fog potential. Latest RAP and HRRR
continues to advertise a moist layer of about 1,000 feet off the
surface underneath an inversion, and shows a rather expansive area
of dense fog mainly along and west of the Illinois River, where
rainfall from the current system has been in the 1/2 to 1 inch
range. The RAP humidity plots seem to be running a bit fast with the
clearing, as the AWIPS timing tool has the clearing line coming into
the western CWA toward 11 pm or so. If the winds stay up a bit, this
could keep the fog from getting out of hand, but have added a
mention of patchy fog for now west of I-55 after midnight. Evening
shift can make adjustments if it appears the clearing is coming in
faster than expected, which would increase the odds of fog
formation.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become
progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a
zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. The faster
departure of that low to the east will help usher in much drier air
aloft. Skies should become sunny across our entire forecast area on
Sunday, but some patchy morning fog could delay that for areas
northwest of the Illinois river. There is potential for locally
dense fog around sunrise, but winds could prevent that if they
remain up late tonight. Have included patchy fog early Sunday
morning for now, to trend that into the forecast.
Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will
not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer
air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid
to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties
toward Jacksonville.
A southern stream upper level low progressing from eastern Texas
toward Virginia on Monday will push a shield of precip close to
southern IL, but we expect to remain dry as the feature departs to
the East Coast Monday night. The overall result will be upper level
ridging developing across IL by late Monday afternoon, with
rising heights and warmer temps Monday. Highs should climb into
the lower 70s in most areas.
The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Tues and Wed
under a persistent SW flow aloft and southerly surface winds.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s both days.
The long wave trough in the western states will shift east over the
Rockies on Wed night, then eject a surface low toward Illinois on
Thursday. Rain chances will increase from west to east during the
day, with likely chances of rain Thursday night into Friday, as low
pressure and a cold front pass across Illinois. Showers could linger
Friday night behind the front, but most areas should return to dry
conditions for Saturday. Much cooler air will arrive behind that
system, with temperatures returning to near normal. Temps on Friday
will be steady or falling in the afternoon as NW winds crank up.
Despite increasing sunshine on Saturday, highs should remain in the
mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR ceilings have become commonplace east of a KBMI-KSTL line at
midday, as bulk of the rain and lower clouds have been to the
west. Area of IFR ceilings not too far behind though, and these
will be shifting eastward, although with time the heights may rise
to above 1,000 feet. Following passage of an upper disturbance
this evening, ceilings are expected to lift and clouds will
scatter out in many areas by 06Z. Some indications of some fog
potential in west central Illinois where skies should be first to
clear. Right now, winds are expected to stay up enough to keep fog
from becoming widespread, but have added some tempo MVFR
visibilities at KPIA/KSPI late tonight to address this concern.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Bulk of steadier rain currently between I-55 and the Mississippi
River, especially in northern Illinois. Have been seeing more in
the way of drizzle and light rain to the east. Main upper wave
still advancing across western Minnesota/Iowa into northern Kansas
per latest water vapor imagery, and with low level jet of 45-50
knots still pointed into central Illinois through mid afternoon,
additional periods of light rain/drizzle are expected to spread
into central Illinois. High-resolution models becoming more
consistent in tapering the rain threat west of I-55 late this
afternoon. Have adjusted the PoP grids for the latest trends,
which included reducing areas west of the Illinois River to slight
chances late this afternoon and dropping them completely there
this evening.
Have some concerns about fog potential for tonight. While the
models are generally drying the column quickly from the top down
this evening, the RAP model maintains a moist column below 1500
feet as an inversion sets up. The HRRR still maintains some of the
stratus deck over the northern CWA much of the evening, but tries
to bring some clearing into west central Illinois. Clearing skies
early enough would favor some fog development as winds become
lighter. Have not added fog mention to the forecast yet, but will
first evaluate the remaining models that are coming in now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Shortwave trof over the Plains states this morning will push into
our area later this afternoon bringing rainy and cool weather to the
forecast area. Impressive low level jet of 50 knots over southwest
Missouri early this morning forecast to shift east into central IL
by late this morning helping to transport moisture north into the
region. Strong low level moisture convergence coupled with decent
upper level divergence will help to keep the rain going over our
area thru early afternoon before we see a trend towards decreasing
POPs from west to east late this afternoon as the 500 mb trof axis
approaches our area. Despite the gusty southerly flow ahead of the
weather disturbance to our west, widespread cloud cover and precip
will keep our temperatures mostly in the 50s this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
00Z forecast models have trended a bit faster with diminishing
chances of rain showers from west to east during this Halloween
evening, while low clouds decrease over central IL later this
evening into overnight and in eastern/SE IL Sunday morning,
though lingering longest southeast of I-70. Weak high pressure
over the Central Plains settles into IL by midday Sunday and into
the ohio river valley by sunset Sunday. Lows tonight range from
lower 40s nw of the IL river, to the upper 40s in eastern IL.
Milder highs Sunday in the mid to upper 60s with mildest readings
in western CWA. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 40s.
00Z forecast models show some upper level ridging into IL on Monday,
and across the Eastern States during Tue/Wed. This will bring milder
highs in the lower 70s Monday, and low to mid 70s Tue/Wed as dry
weather prevails through Wed night. A more unsettled SW upper
level flow during 2nd half of the week along with a cold front
moving through IL around Friday to return chances of showers Thu
through Friday night. Thunderstorms chances look best in southern
IL around Friday. More clouds and chances of showers on Thu gives
a bit cooler highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temps then to
slip through the 60s on Friday behind cold front and cooler more
seasonable 50s in store for next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR ceilings have become commonplace east of a KBMI-KSTL line at
midday, as bulk of the rain and lower clouds have been to the
west. Area of IFR ceilings not too far behind though, and these
will be shifting eastward, although with time the heights may rise
to above 1,000 feet. Following passage of an upper disturbance
this evening, ceilings are expected to lift and clouds will
scatter out in many areas by 06Z. Some indications of some fog
potential in west central Illinois where skies should be first to
clear. Right now, winds are expected to stay up enough to keep fog
from becoming widespread, but have added some tempo MVFR
visibilities at KPIA/KSPI late tonight to address this concern.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1010 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Bulk of steadier rain currently between I-55 and the Mississippi
River, especially in northern Illinois. Have been seeing more in
the way of drizzle and light rain to the east. Main upper wave
still advancing across western Minnesota/Iowa into northern Kansas
per latest water vapor imagery, and with low level jet of 45-50
knots still pointed into central Illinois through mid afternoon,
additional periods of light rain/drizzle are expected to spread
into central Illinois. High-resolution models becoming more
consistent in tapering the rain threat west of I-55 late this
afternoon. Have adjusted the PoP grids for the latest trends,
which included reducing areas west of the Illinois River to slight
chances late this afternoon and dropping them completely there
this evening.
Have some concerns about fog potential for tonight. While the
models are generally drying the column quickly from the top down
this evening, the RAP model maintains a moist column below 1500
feet as an inversion sets up. The HRRR still maintains some of the
stratus deck over the northern CWA much of the evening, but tries
to bring some clearing into west central Illinois. Clearing skies
early enough would favor some fog development as winds become
lighter. Have not added fog mention to the forecast yet, but will
first evaluate the remaining models that are coming in now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Shortwave trof over the Plains states this morning will push into
our area later this afternoon bringing rainy and cool weather to the
forecast area. Impressive low level jet of 50 knots over southwest
Missouri early this morning forecast to shift east into central IL
by late this morning helping to transport moisture north into the
region. Strong low level moisture convergence coupled with decent
upper level divergence will help to keep the rain going over our
area thru early afternoon before we see a trend towards decreasing
POPs from west to east late this afternoon as the 500 mb trof axis
approaches our area. Despite the gusty southerly flow ahead of the
weather disturbance to our west, widespread cloud cover and precip
will keep our temperatures mostly in the 50s this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
00Z forecast models have trended a bit faster with diminishing
chances of rain showers from west to east during this Halloween
evening, while low clouds decrease over central IL later this
evening into overnight and in eastern/SE IL Sunday morning,
though lingering longest southeast of I-70. Weak high pressure
over the Central Plains settles into IL by midday Sunday and into
the ohio river valley by sunset Sunday. Lows tonight range from
lower 40s nw of the IL river, to the upper 40s in eastern IL.
Milder highs Sunday in the mid to upper 60s with mildest readings
in western CWA. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 40s.
00Z forecast models show some upper level ridging into IL on Monday,
and across the Eastern States during Tue/Wed. This will bring milder
highs in the lower 70s Monday, and low to mid 70s Tue/Wed as dry
weather prevails through Wed night. A more unsettled SW upper
level flow during 2nd half of the week along with a cold front
moving through IL around Friday to return chances of showers Thu
through Friday night. Thunderstorms chances look best in southern
IL around Friday. More clouds and chances of showers on Thu gives
a bit cooler highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temps then to
slip through the 60s on Friday behind cold front and cooler more
seasonable 50s in store for next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR cigs in the
12z-16z time frame as rain continues to push across the TAF sites
this morning. Low VFR cigs across the area at the present time,
however, latest surface observations just west of SPI suggest MVFR
and even some IFR cigs already starting to move in to Jacksonville
and believe this trend will continue to spread east as the morning
goes on. Once the cigs drop to MVFR or lower, looks as if there
will be a 4 to 6 hour period of low cigs before the rain moves off
and some drier air starts to work its way east into parts of west
central IL after 23z. CMI and DEC will have the lower cigs the
longest as the weather system tracks to the east of the area this
evening, but feel even over our far east, we will see improving
conditions later tonight as the storm system shifts away from our
area.
Gusty south to southeast winds are expected this morning at 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 23 kts, with winds veering more into a
southwest direction this afternoon. Look for winds to shift more
into a westerly direction this evening with speeds in the 10 to 15
kt range before diminishing to less than 10 kts after 05z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS MORNING...RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF OUR CWA AND IS NOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED BEHIND RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH/WESTERLY FLOW. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLEARING LINE
ALONG LINE FROM IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AND NAM HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON EXTENT/PATTER OF FOG AND
TENDENCY HAS BEEN TOWARD IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1/4SM VIS. THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A 1-2HR
WINDOW OF 1/2SM VIS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD
TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACK WILL FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS. LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE ROCKIES AND INCREASING SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE PERIODS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...WHICH IS ABOUT 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH 80F...ABOUT 20F ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WITH TIME...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC
WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS AND CHANGES FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT LOOKS LIKE A SPAGHETTI CHART AND
THERE IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
SO SUFFICE TO SAY...I AM PLANNING ON MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE
CRH_INIT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH. ESSENTIALLY THE BLEND KEEPS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO DIFFERENT
EXTREMES WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER OR WETTER DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION
YOU CHOOSE.
OF LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COOLER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK SURACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS
ARE LESS CERTAIN MOST DAYS DUE TO THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH FOR 3HR. BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH RFW
CRITERIA CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER SW UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. OTHER COMPLICATION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FUELS AFTER
RECENT RAINFALL. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...EXPECTATION SHOULD BE FOR FUELS TO BE FAVORABLE...THOUGH
ITS HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL NEED TO
COORDINATE AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
(PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS MORNING...RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF OUR CWA AND IS NOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED BEHIND RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH/WESTERLY FLOW. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLEARING LINE
ALONG LINE FROM IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AND NAM HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON EXTENT/PATTER OF FOG AND
TENDENCY HAS BEEN TOWARD IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1/4SM VIS. THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A 1-2HR
WINDOW OF 1/2SM VIS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD
TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACK WILL FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS. LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE ROCKIES AND INCREASING SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE PERIODS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...WHICH IS ABOUT 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH 80F...ABOUT 20F ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WITH TIME...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC
WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS AND CHANGES FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT LOOKS LIKE A SPAGHETTI CHART AND
THERE IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
SO SUFFICE TO SAY...I AM PLANNING ON MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE
CRH_INIT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH. ESSENTIALLY THE BLEND KEEPS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO DIFFERENT
EXTREMES WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER OR WETTER DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION
YOU CHOOSE.
OF LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COOLER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
BACK EDGE OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS JUST WEST OF KMCK TERMINAL AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 13Z BASED ON CURRENT
FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TIMING AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR QUICKLY WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT KGLD AND WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK (AFTER 13Z) WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS
ARE LESS CERTAIN MOST DAYS DUE TO THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH FOR 3HR. BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH RFW
CRITERIA CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER SW UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. OTHER COMPLICATION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FUELS AFTER
RECENT RAINFALL. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...EXPECTATION SHOULD BE FOR FUELS TO BE FAVORABLE...THOUGH
ITS HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL NEED TO
COORDINATE AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
(PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
554 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough extending from the
northern plains southwest through the southern Rockies and into
Mexico. A shortwave was noted moving east along the Canadian/MT
border. At the surface, ridging has moved off to the east with a
area of low pressure over central TX and a surface trough moving
into the northern plains from the west.
Models show energy cutting off over the southern plains as the
shortwave along the Canadian border propagates east towards the
Great Lakes. This causes the surface trough to move through the
forecast area shifting winds to the west and advecting in dryer air
bringing an end to the precip by mid morning. Meanwhile the upper
low remains south of the forecast area while the mean westerlies
become zonal to the north. So with no real forcing and relatively
dry air over the area, the weather is expected to remain quiet
through tonight once the rain stops. The one thing to watch out for
is the development of fog overnight. With recent rains and winds
becoming light tonight, there could be some patchy radiational fog.
Objective guidance doesn`t seem to excited about fog at the airports
and the SREF ensemble only shows a small probability for
visibilities below 3 miles. Because of this there is not a great
deal of certainty in its formation. Additionally if the boundary
layer mixes out this afternoon, that could diminish fog potential by
scouring out the boundary layer moisture. So will let later shifts
evaluate fog potential for tonight.
Models indicate some warm air advection at 925 MB this afternoon
with a westerly downslope wind. Because of this have bumped up highs
today across the western two thirds of the forecast area where there
should be some afternoon sun. Based on 925 MB temps, afternoon highs
could approach 70 degrees out west. The forecast has low to mid 60s
for highs expecting limited mixing, but this could be on the cool
side if cloud cover scatters out in the morning rather than the
early afternoon. Lows tonight are expected to be from 40 to 45 with
no real cold air advection seen in the models.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Zonal mid level flow pattern Sunday through Tuesday brings back the
dry conditions across the central plains. Broad sfc trough develops
over the western high plains, veering winds to the southwest at 10
to 15 mph. Warmest areas over central KS may see the h85 temps at
15C mixing closer to the sfc with readings in the middle to upper
70s. Low to middle 70s are likely elsewhere. Overnight lows are as
much as 20 degrees warmer compared to near freezing temps
experienced lately, falling to the lower 50s.
Next system to bring back rain chances to the area is still on track
for late Wednesday evening through Friday as a broad upper trough
lifts embedded vorticity maxima through the region. Onset of the
precip is dependent on how quickly Gulf moisture saturates the dry
airmass in place. The latest Canadian and ECMWF runs are similar
with the track of the trough axis being slower with the optimal rain
chances Thursday evening. The prominent area for isentropic lift is
focused further south with the faster track of the GFS, bringing
lesser QPF amounts to our area. Both guidance is similar though in
the cold front reaching north central KS by Thursday afternoon. The
dynamic lift and available moisture in play continues to signal
up to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE present around 700 mb, while effective
shear maximizes over 50 kts. A few thunderstorms are a good
possibility especially on Thursday afternoon and evening. Behind
the frontal boundary, a few showers may linger into Friday. At
this point the cool air returns with readings back into the 50s
for highs.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
The forecast anticipates a gradual improvement in CIGS through the
morning as dry air advects in from the west. Unfortunately the
models are uncertain how fast the improvement will occur. With
satellite showing the low CIGS back in western KS still, have
tended to go with the slower RAP solutions which would scatter
the low clouds out mid afternoon. I think the IFR CIGS should
improve to at least MVFR by the late morning. If we stay overcast
for much of the day and do not mix out the boundary layer, the
chances for fog Sunday morning will likely increase.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS MORNING...RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF OUR CWA AND IS NOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED BEHIND RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH/WESTERLY FLOW. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLEARING LINE
ALONG LINE FROM IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AND NAM HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON EXTENT/PATTER OF FOG AND
TENDENCY HAS BEEN TOWARD IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1/4SM VIS. THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A 1-2HR
WINDOW OF 1/2SM VIS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD
TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACK WILL FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS. LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE ROCKIES AND INCREASING SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE PERIODS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...WHICH IS ABOUT 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH 80F...ABOUT 20F ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WITH TIME...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC
WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS AND CHANGES FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT LOOKS LIKE A SPAGHETTI CHART AND
THERE IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
SO SUFFICE TO SAY...I AM PLANNING ON MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE
CRH_INIT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH. ESSENTIALLY THE BLEND KEEPS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO DIFFERENT
EXTREMES WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER OR WETTER DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION
YOU CHOOSE.
OF LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COOLER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015
KGLD...VLIFR CIGS/VIS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z
WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST 6KTS OR SO. FROM 11Z-13Z WEST WINDS NEAR
10KTS DEVELOP PUSHING STRATUS DECK EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KTS
EXPECTED FROM 16Z-19Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS BY 20Z. FROM 21Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 12Z WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER 13Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 20KTS FROM 17Z-20Z. AFTER
21Z WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND AFTER 00Z BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS
ARE LESS CERTAIN MOST DAYS DUE TO THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH FOR 3HR. BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH RFW
CRITERIA CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER SW UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. OTHER COMPLICATION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FUELS AFTER
RECENT RAINFALL. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...EXPECTATION SHOULD BE FOR FUELS TO BE FAVORABLE...THOUGH
ITS HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL NEED TO
COORDINATE AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
(PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1035 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WSR-88D STILL SHOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP CONCENTRATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KY...THEREFORE HAVE
ONCE AGAIN LEANED IN THAT OVERALL DIRECTION THIS UPDATE GIVEN THAT
TREND AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO GIVEN SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES SEEING DROPS IN VIS WOULD
EXPECT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT...SO ADDED THAT THIS UPDATE TO MAINLY VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION TO THOSE UPDATES DID MAKE UPDATES TO TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WSR-88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY STILL
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE GRADIENT OF RAIN VERSUS NO RAIN WILL BE QUITE TIGHT.
MESO MODELS AND EVEN SOME OF THE LOWER RES MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH ACTIVITY STRUGGLING TO MAKE AS FAR
NORTH AS EVEN JACKSON. SREF PROBS OF GREATER THAN A HUNDREDTH OF
AN INCH ARE GENERALLY REMAINING INTO THE 10 PERCENT RANGE
OVERNIGHT AROUNF JACKSONN WITH WHITLEY...BELL...HARLAN...AND
LETCHER HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE DID OPT TO MAKE THE POP GRADIENT TIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT NEXT UPDATE POSSIBLY TIGHTENING MORE.
ALSO GIVEN REPORT OF SOME FOG ALREADY FORMING EARLY THIS EVENING
DID PUT MORE FOG IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
UPDATED TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE REGION WAS UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US CANADIAN
BORDER. A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A
CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN TX. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING BY IN SW FLOW ABOVE. THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS STILL
OCCURRING ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE THE PERIOD...THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ERODING ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO END THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A SFC
WAVE WILL TRACK BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL GET
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE NO
FURTHER NORTHWEST AND THE 12Z NAM SHARPENING UP THE GRADIENT ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ALTHOUGH THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING A BIT HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OPTED TO SHARPEN
UP THE GRADIENT IN POPS FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH LEFT THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...AND GENERALLY
KEPT THE I 64 CORRIDOR NORTH DRY. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD EXPERIENCE FOG
FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WE WILL BE LOCKED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE BY
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS QUICKLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WAITING TO BE ENERGIZED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PROLONG...OR REDEVELOP...RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
HANG ONTO A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
THIS EVENING IS DIVIDED IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER WITH LOWER
MVFR/IFR DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST AREAS VERSUS HIGHER VFR
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS LOWER DECK IS EXPECTED TO
CREEP NORTH TONIGHT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE
WOULD EXPECT MOST SITES TO DROP OFF TO IFR TO EVEN LIFR FOR
EITHER CLOUDS OR VIS. SYM WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A
RESTRICTION WITH CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MORE RESTRICTIONS IN
TERMS OF VIS. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP TONIGHT
AND AT THIS POINT BEST CHANCES ARE ALONG AND NEARER THE TN/VA
BORDER. SO DID OPT TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATER
AFTERNOON. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
820 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Low clouds run across our southern few rows of counties, whereas up
north is covered by fairly thick deck of mid/high clouds. The latter
should thin some, especially over our southern Indiana counties.
However, high-res guidance continues to indicate a narrow east-west
oriented band of clouds to fill back in at around 400 mb. These
clouds will be pivotal in preventing the formation of fog overnight,
as winds are calm at most stations and dewpoint depressions are low.
Will continue to carry patchy fog over the northern two/thirds of
the area and chances for light rain across the south. No need for a
zone update at this time.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.
For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.
For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.
The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.
Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Low clouds have hung on at KBWG, but are south of the SDF/LEX
corridor. With weak overrunning in the low levels expect these
clouds to remain near KBWG for most of this period...dropping again
into the IFR range overnight and into the morning hours Monday. A
concern for the SDF/LEX corridor toward daybreak is fog, as
temp/dewpoint spreads are low at this time. Sky cover should be thin
enough to allow for some cooling, but latest RAP shows a thin band
of clouds that could move across that corridor before daybreak,
short-circuiting the chance for fog. Given how narrow the band looks
to be, cannot pull fog chances out of the TAFs, but did make it a
tempo group at SDF.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
521 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 516 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Fairly high confidence that most of this period will feature
warm and rainfree conditions with afternoon highs getting back
into the 70s.
A southern stream upper level low will make its way from the
TX/LA Gulf coast will gradually work its way ne into the TN River
Valley by Monday/Monday evening. It still appears as though most
of the moisture and associated precip will stay just south/east
of our forecast area...though much of wrn KY could experience
quite a bit of cloud cover. H50 ridge will then build into the
region on Tuesday. As heights rise...so will temps. As long as low
level cloud cover does not become an issue, we should see many
locations pop into the mid 70s Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue Wed/Thu as
deep swly flow develops ahead of trofing out over the swrn United
States. This trof will eventually translate ene toward the region
Thu night into Friday. An associated sfc cold front will also
approach during that time, and will bring a very good chc of
showers/sct thunderstorms with it. This system will need to be
monitored for a few strong or even isolated severe storms. Am a
bit concerned with the potential strong wind fields ahead of the
ejecting wrn H50 short wave that will combine with rich
moisture/sfc dew point around 60 as the sfc front moves in. In
addition, 12z ECMWF suggests SB CAPES may be running above 200
J/KG in some locations (modest, but sufficient to support cool
season QLCS in a high shear/low CAPE environment). For now, given
we are talking about 4+ days out, will just introduce chc of
isolated svr storms in the HWO product. Still lots of time to
monitor the svr potential with this system. May also
Drier and much cooler conditions will take over one the front
passes next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 516 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Fog is possible overnight, mainly KCGI/KPAH, but we`ll keep a
close eye further north as well. Otherwise cloud shield slowly
moves south/east...and should ultimately break all terminals
during course of day tmrw.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
546 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.
For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.
For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.
The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.
Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Low clouds have hung on at KBWG, but are south of the SDF/LEX
corridor. With weak overrunning in the low levels expect these
clouds to remain near KBWG for most of this period...dropping again
into the IFR range overnight and into the morning hours Monday. A
concern for the SDF/LEX corridor toward daybreak is fog, as
temp/dewpoint spreads are low at this time. Sky cover should be thin
enough to allow for some cooling, but latest RAP shows a thin band
of clouds that could move across that corridor before daybreak,
short-circuiting the chance for fog. Given how narrow the band looks
to be, cannot pull fog chances out of the TAFs, but did make it a
tempo group at SDF.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
456 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 452 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
WAKE LOW HAS PRODUCED QUITE GUSTY SLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES TODAY. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM VERY
WELL WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO PRECIP AMOUNTS TODAY. HAS BEEN A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SRN PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT ALL IN ALL THINKING IS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
MINIMALLY IMPACTED. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AS MESO LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
AFTER THIS EVENING...BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ENE INTO TN RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER TOUCH OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
WRN KY...BUT IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW LIKE HIGHER RAIN CHCS SHOULD BE
S/E OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
High pressure will be situated from the New England states down into
our area starting on Tuesday and there will be weak ridge aloft. The
flow aloft transitions to southwesterly over the next couple of days
as a large trough crashes into California and organizes itself over
the 4 corners region. Southerly low level flow strengthens and
higher sfc moisture advects into the region. Dewpoints eventually
end up in the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday night and that
moisture stays with us through the end of the week.
We will stay dry through Wednesday and rather warm with above normal
highs in the lower to mid 70s. By Thursday, precipitation is slated
to start moving in from the southwest in conjunction perturbationsassociated
with the incoming mid level trough.
Right now it appears the best chances for rain on Thursday will be
over southeast MO. Better chances look to arrive Thursday night and
into Friday as the mid level system lifts east northeast with time
and eventually phases into the northern stream, and a sfc low
develops over TX and moves northeast. But there are still timing
differences to deal with between the model solutions so there is
room for adjustments.
Although there are differences in QPF amounts between the GFS/ECMWF,
the GFS continues to indicates fairly high precipitation amts
conjunction with high PWs. Even though it may be a bit overdone, we
will have to continue watching this event for any flooding
potential.
The front associated with this system moves east of the area by
Friday night. Much cooler weather is expected for the weekend. Some
models/model runs tried to indicate Saturday staying wet as the
frontal boundary stalls to our south and we end up in some type of
overrunning event. However, the newest GFS run indicates a dry
weekend and latest ECMWF has backed off considerably. So will lower
POPS for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 452 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR cigs prevail and as pcpn develops in Ky, MVFR vsbys will
follow. Otherwise, overnight, drizzle/fog will likewise restrict
vsbys, probably staying in MVFR range but will monitor closely.
The weather system departs to the east tmrw, so gradually
improving conditions to VFR will occur thru the am/into the pm
hours.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
451 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2015
...Light Rain Showers for Halloween...
Current radar trends indicate that most trick-or-treaters over the
area will run into some light rain showers this evening. The most
steady rainfall still looks to occur beyond 8pm and through the
early morning hours tonight. Also winds will be a bit breezy this
evening for trick-or-treaters with occassional gusts between 15-20
mph. Temperatures look to remain mild in the upper 50s/lower 60s
this evening.
Overall, by the time the steady rains end late tonight, southern IN
and north central KY can generally expect between 0.05" and .25" of
rainfall. South central KY will see a bit more in the .25" to .5"
range. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 50s.
Small rain chances (20-30%) will hang around over south central KY
for Sunday/Sunday night while the rest of the region goes dry. These
rain chances will be courtesy of an upper low passing well to our
south across the southern U.S. Models have trended much farther
south with the precip shield so really scaled back POPs over our
area in coordination with neighbors this forecast issuance.
Due to lesser or no precip chances and less low clouds likely over
much of the area for Sun, increased temps to the mid 60s to around
70 for highs. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some folks top 70
degrees Sun afternoon. Sun night we`ll remain relatively mild in
the upper 40s to mid 50s for lows.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2015
Deterministic models continue to indicate a closed low just
southwest of our forecast area Monday morning, with it forecast to
shift east of our longitude some time during the day. Will continue
to carry rain chances across our south, as some rain showers still
are possible until we can get that low east of us. Monday night
through at least Wednesday night continue to look dry as ridging
builds across the region, allowing for a warmup.
Models have trended weaker with their solution of a closed low over
the western U.S., which would imply a more progressive flow of the
trough out there eastward. That shift would bring the higher
moisture plume sandwiched between that low and our ridge midweek
over us quicker, and allow for better rain chances for the end of
the work week. Still not sold on this scenario just yet, as would
like to see how things play out for the west, but will lean closer
to the SuperBlend today, making for good rain chances into the next
weekend. Temperatures will depend on how much cloudiness and rain
gets in here as well, so will run with blended guidance here as well.
&&
.AVIATION (21Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 450 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2015
Sent out a round of TAF amendments to include some low-level wind
shear at each of the sites now. Have had some reports of turbulence,
but no shear just yet. Still model time height sections as well as
latest RAP vertical wind profiles indicate should be 35-40 knot
winds at 1500-2000 feet above the ground. These stronger winds aloft
should continue into the evening hours before subsiding. Rains
showers are not causing restrictions this hour, but the low-level
moistening will be enough to bring cigs down into at least the IFR
range overnight for all sites. Clouds could linger later than in
current TAF, but will re-assess that over the coming TAFs.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
153 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. MAINLY SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MORE INTENSE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ATTM. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
INSENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE. THE RECENT HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BROUGHT INTO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AROUND 19Z OR 3 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT HRRR RUNS. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE AND THIS
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH SATURATING
FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER
FOG HAS DISSIPATED. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION
AND CENTRAL KY ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND PER REGIONAL AWOS AND
ASOS OBSERVATIONS...AND ARE LIKELY VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES
AT THE MOST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP
THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WV AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS
MORNING...THE IMPACT OF THESE CLOUD ARE KEEPING VALLEY TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 30S. IN FACT...SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THIS
FEATURE FURTHER PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THROUGH THE
DAY...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS SEPARATED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER TX ALONG THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. AS THESE TWO FEATURES SPLIT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE
OH VALLEY...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A NOTICEABLE LACK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER KENTUCKY. THUS EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO TRACK INTO THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LACKING...MEASURABLE RAINFALL SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY TAKE A BIT
TO SATURATE AS QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE UPON ARRIVAL OF
THE SHOWERS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AGAINST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL STALL BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE
AND TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER TX DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EAST BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND
FEATURE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY MAY STAY DRY SUNDAY AS THE
SPLIT OF THE TWO FEATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
KEEP MINIMAL QPF VALUES OVER THE NORTH. A BIT FURTHER NORTHERN
TRACK WILL BRING POPS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN KY A BIT
EARLIER. OVERALL...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS
WELL...THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION FOR QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS
VERY REASONABLE WITH AMOUNTS BEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN LESS TO THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY.
DURING THIS PROCESS THE 00Z ECMWF IS A NOTCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS AND GEM. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHILE A LARGE
TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RIDGING HOLDS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ABOVE
KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH OPENS UP AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...QUICKER AND STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN
THE GFS. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS. THE SIMILARITIES EARLY ON...AND LATER A
WIDENING SPREAD...MAKE A BLEND OF MODELS A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS LOW WEAKENS AND EXITS BY TUESDAY
MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A BENIGN AND SEASONABLY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...
ALONG WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE
OF RAIN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CR EXTENDED INIT GRIDS MAINLY
TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO BROADENED THE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORK INTO
AND ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD VFR WITH SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND
WITH FURTHER SATURATION CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT BETWEEN
21Z AND 4Z. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA OR DEVELOP
BY AROUND 00Z WITH THIS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...DETERIORATION
TO MVFR AND THEN IFR SHOULD FOLLOW. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1152 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ATTM. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
INSENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE. THE RECENT HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BROUGHT INTO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AROUND 19Z OR 3 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT HRRR RUNS. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE AND THIS
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH SATURATING
FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER
FOG HAS DISSIPATED. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION
AND CENTRAL KY ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND PER REGIONAL AWOS AND
ASOS OBSERVATIONS...AND ARE LIKELY VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES
AT THE MOST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP
THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WV AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS
MORNING...THE IMPACT OF THESE CLOUD ARE KEEPING VALLEY TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 30S. IN FACT...SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THIS
FEATURE FURTHER PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THROUGH THE
DAY...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS SEPARATED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER TX ALONG THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. AS THESE TWO FEATURES SPLIT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE
OH VALLEY...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A NOTICEABLE LACK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER KENTUCKY. THUS EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO TRACK INTO THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LACKING...MEASURABLE RAINFALL SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY TAKE A BIT
TO SATURATE AS QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE UPON ARRIVAL OF
THE SHOWERS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AGAINST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL STALL BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE
AND TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER TX DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EAST BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND
FEATURE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY MAY STAY DRY SUNDAY AS THE
SPLIT OF THE TWO FEATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
KEEP MINIMAL QPF VALUES OVER THE NORTH. A BIT FURTHER NORTHERN
TRACK WILL BRING POPS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN KY A BIT
EARLIER. OVERALL...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS
WELL...THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION FOR QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS
VERY REASONABLE WITH AMOUNTS BEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN LESS TO THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY.
DURING THIS PROCESS THE 00Z ECMWF IS A NOTCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS AND GEM. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHILE A LARGE
TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RIDGING HOLDS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ABOVE
KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH OPENS UP AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...QUICKER AND STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN
THE GFS. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS. THE SIMILARITIES EARLY ON...AND LATER A
WIDENING SPREAD...MAKE A BLEND OF MODELS A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS LOW WEAKENS AND EXITS BY TUESDAY
MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A BENIGN AND SEASONABLY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...
ALONG WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE
OF RAIN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CR EXTENDED INIT GRIDS MAINLY
TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO BROADENED THE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SOME FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER 14Z. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS SME WILL
HAVE SOME DENSE FOG LINGER A BIT LONGER AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE
TAF THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT SO WENT WITH AN MVFR VIS FOR
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LATER INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES...EXPECT IFR AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS DUE TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN EXITING THE AREA. ALSO...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTER MN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE RAIN AREA EXITING FAR
EASTERN MN AFTER 17Z. IT WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WISCONISN UNTIL
21Z OR SO. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER ISSUE AFFECTING
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. IT IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND HELP DRIVE THE INITIAL TROUGH EAST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THIS WAVE...AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE WITH GFS AND MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE NOON AND
EXITING TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN
THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH SHOWERS ENDING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL THROUGH THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S DURING PEAK TRICK OR TREATING
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
CLOSING OUT THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AS A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE HEIGHT
FALLS OVER WRN NOAM...THERE WILL BE A LARGE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER
ERN NOAM AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME AT US IN TWO
PARTS...THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NW WED/WED
NIGHT...WITH PART TWO TRAVELING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THU/FRI.
STARTING OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN H85
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO IN EXCESS OF 12C AS SW WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...925 TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH WITH
FAVORABLE SW WINDS THAT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
WRN MN COULD VERY WELL SEE 70 TO START NOVEMBER. FARTHER
EAST...LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD BACK HIGHS IN WRN WI. DID
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DID KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN ERN MN/WRN WI...GETTING THEM CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY...WE WILL START WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER US...BUT WILL START TO
SEE THE RIDGE BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED STRONG WRLY
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
COLORADO...WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS HERE LOOKING TO GENERATE A
RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SET US
IN A VERY MILD AND DRY WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE ONE GOING TO OUR NW WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALL 31.00 GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE
FRONT...DID BOOST HIGHS ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS A DAY NEXT WEEK TO SEE RECORD HIGHS...THIS WILL BE THE
DAY TO DO IT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT STC/MSP/EAU ARE 72/74/74
RESPECTIVELY AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...THESE VALUES COULD VERY WELL BE CHALLENGED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE LOOK TOO WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SEE
ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DRY.
INSTEAD...RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE GET BEHIND THE
FRONT. PART TWO OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
THU/FRI...WITH A POST FRONTAL DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKING TO BECOME
ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF WRN WI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. P-TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
IRF CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ABOUT AS THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING...A BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND SHOULD DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
KMSP...
THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE STUCK AT THE AIRPORT FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE CURRRENT SPEED OF THE BACK EDGE WE
ARE THINKING LATE AFTERNOON FOR AN IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS. IT
SHOULD HAPPEN FAST ONCE THE BACK EDGE ARRIVES. WINDS INCREASE
THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR NW WI/TWIN PORTS PRECIP AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THIS EVENING. THE RAIN SHIELD MAINLY OVER NW WI AND THE
TWIN PORTS IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. WILL DECREASE WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AND PORTIONS OF NW WI AS
THE RAIN MOVES EAST. THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HRRR AND DLHWRF INDICATES
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
I HAVE A GLOOMY FORECAST FOR HALLOWEEN WEEKEND...AND I HOPE THE AREA
KIDS ARE PREPARED FOR SOME RAIN ON THEIR TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SPREADING RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RAIN IS
GOING TO STALL OR EASE BACK WEST AGAIN FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND JUST AS THE
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WAVE PULLS RAIN OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL BE MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
DRIVEN...AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THIS WAVE WILL BE JUST IN
TIME TO AFFECT TRICK OR TREATERS IN THE NORTHLAND...SO WHILE IT
MAY RAIN FOR A SHORT TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A WHOLE EVENING RAIN
OUT. THIS WAVE SWEEPS EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY FOR
MOST OF THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO MOST OF
SUNDAY. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE ALSO DIVES OUR WAY FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MAINLY THE CANADIAN BORDER AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND GLOOMY FOR SATURDAY SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A SMIDGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO
KEEP THINGS MILD FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED SLIGHTLY AS WELL.
SUNDAY WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF...ALLOWING THE BRAINERD AND HINCKLEY AREAS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 50S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MORE CLOUDS
AND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BACK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MID WEEK...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AS
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE BORDER
REGION...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. WE STILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE PRECIP OCCURRING THERE AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP POPS
IF THIS DRY TREND CONTINUES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURRING AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
SIXTIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID FIFTIES NORTH.
HIGHS WILL DROP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FORTIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON THE EDGE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT HAVE OPTED TO FORECAST IFR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
BECAUSE SITES THAT ARE MVFR NOW WILL LIKELY SPEND AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS IFR...AND DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WOULD BE FOR A TEMPO GROUP. WHILE IT IS NOT RAINING AT MOST SITES
NOW A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECT TO CAUSE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY APPEAR ON RADAR...WITH THE FRONT
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL SITES TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT...ESPECIALLY AT BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WHERE
CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT INL WHERE MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 40 54 40 / 80 60 0 0
INL 49 37 51 37 / 60 40 20 10
BRD 51 37 58 41 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 49 38 56 42 / 90 50 0 0
ASX 51 41 57 42 / 90 60 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1121 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR NW WI/TWIN PORTS PRECIP AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THIS EVENING. THE RAIN SHIELD MAINLY OVER NW WI AND THE
TWIN PORTS IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. WILL DECREASE WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AND PORTIONS OF NW WI AS
THE RAIN MOVES EAST. THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HRRR AND DLHWRF INDICATES
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
I HAVE A GLOOMY FORECAST FOR HALLOWEEN WEEKEND...AND I HOPE THE AREA
KIDS ARE PREPARED FOR SOME RAIN ON THEIR TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SPREADING RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RAIN IS
GOING TO STALL OR EASE BACK WEST AGAIN FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND JUST AS THE
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WAVE PULLS RAIN OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL BE MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
DRIVEN...AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THIS WAVE WILL BE JUST IN
TIME TO AFFECT TRICK OR TREATERS IN THE NORTHLAND...SO WHILE IT
MAY RAIN FOR A SHORT TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A WHOLE EVENING RAIN
OUT. THIS WAVE SWEEPS EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY FOR
MOST OF THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO MOST OF
SUNDAY. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE ALSO DIVES OUR WAY FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MAINLY THE CANADIAN BORDER AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND GLOOMY FOR SATURDAY SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A SMIDGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO
KEEP THINGS MILD FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED SLIGHTLY AS WELL.
SUNDAY WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF...ALLOWING THE BRAINERD AND HINCKLEY AREAS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 50S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MORE CLOUDS
AND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BACK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MID WEEK...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AS
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE BORDER
REGION...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. WE STILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE PRECIP OCCURRING THERE AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP POPS
IF THIS DRY TREND CONTINUES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURRING AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
SIXTIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID FIFTIES NORTH.
HIGHS WILL DROP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FORTIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THE WIND WILL TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERN
TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN THE LOW CLOUDS TOWARD KBRD
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR
OR IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 40 54 40 / 80 60 0 0
INL 49 37 51 37 / 60 40 20 10
BRD 51 37 58 41 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 49 38 56 42 / 90 50 0 0
ASX 51 41 57 42 / 90 60 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN EXITING THE AREA. ALSO...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTER MN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE RAIN AREA EXITING FAR
EASTERN MN AFTER 17Z. IT WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WISCONISN UNTIL
21Z OR SO. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER ISSUE AFFECTING
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. IT IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND HELP DRIVE THE INITIAL TROUGH EAST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THIS WAVE...AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE WITH GFS AND MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE NOON AND
EXITING TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN
THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH SHOWERS ENDING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL THROUGH THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S DURING PEAK TRICK OR TREATING
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
CLOSING OUT THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AS A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE HEIGHT
FALLS OVER WRN NOAM...THERE WILL BE A LARGE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER
ERN NOAM AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME AT US IN TWO
PARTS...THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NW WED/WED
NIGHT...WITH PART TWO TRAVELING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THU/FRI.
STARTING OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN H85
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO IN EXCESS OF 12C AS SW WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...925 TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH WITH
FAVORABLE SW WINDS THAT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
WRN MN COULD VERY WELL SEE 70 TO START NOVEMBER. FARTHER
EAST...LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD BACK HIGHS IN WRN WI. DID
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DID KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN ERN MN/WRN WI...GETTING THEM CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY...WE WILL START WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER US...BUT WILL START TO
SEE THE RIDGE BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED STRONG WRLY
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
COLORADO...WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS HERE LOOKING TO GENERATE A
RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SET US
IN A VERY MILD AND DRY WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE ONE GOING TO OUR NW WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALL 31.00 GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE
FRONT...DID BOOST HIGHS ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS A DAY NEXT WEEK TO SEE RECORD HIGHS...THIS WILL BE THE
DAY TO DO IT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT STC/MSP/EAU ARE 72/74/74
RESPECTIVELY AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...THESE VALUES COULD VERY WELL BE CHALLENGED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE LOOK TOO WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SEE
ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DRY.
INSTEAD...RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE GET BEHIND THE
FRONT. PART TWO OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
THU/FRI...WITH A POST FRONTAL DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKING TO BECOME
ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF WRN WI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. P-TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA IS DIGGING
A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IS BEGINNING TO EJECT THE LIGHT RAIN
AREA MORE NORTHEAST. STILL SEE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LIGHT
RAIN...EXITING EAST CENTRAL MN AROUND 17Z AND THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN AFTER 21Z OR SO. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR 15Z-18Z MOST AREAS. VFR
SHOULD RETURN TO THE WESTERN AREAS SHORTLY THEREAFTER...SPREADING
EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SPREAD AT
LEAST SOME MID CLOUDS BACK OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW AND EVENTUALLY W/NW WITH
FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END THROUGH 16Z AND THE ATTENDANT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY 19Z WITH VFR
DEVELOPING BY 23Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE W-NW WITH FROPA
AFTER 23Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN EXITING THE AREA. ALSO...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTER MN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE RAIN AREA EXITING FAR
EASTERN MN AFTER 17Z. IT WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WISCONISN UNTIL
21Z OR SO. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER ISSUE AFFECTING
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. IT IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND HELP DRIVE THE INITIAL TROUGH EAST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THIS WAVE...AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE WITH GFS AND MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE NOON AND
EXITING TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN
THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH SHOWERS ENDING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL THROUGH THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S DURING PEAK TRICK OR TREATING
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
CLOSING OUT THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AS A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE HEIGHT
FALLS OVER WRN NOAM...THERE WILL BE A LARGE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER
ERN NOAM AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME AT US IN TWO
PARTS...THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NW WED/WED
NIGHT...WITH PART TWO TRAVELING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THU/FRI.
STARTING OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN H85
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO IN EXCESS OF 12C AS SW WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...925 TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH WITH
FAVORABLE SW WINDS THAT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
WRN MN COULD VERY WELL SEE 70 TO START NOVEMBER. FARTHER
EAST...LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD BACK HIGHS IN WRN WI. DID
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DID KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN ERN MN/WRN WI...GETTING THEM CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY...WE WILL START WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER US...BUT WILL START TO
SEE THE RIDGE BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED STRONG WRLY
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
COLORADO...WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS HERE LOOKING TO GENERATE A
RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SET US
IN A VERY MILD AND DRY WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE ONE GOING TO OUR NW WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALL 31.00 GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE
FRONT...DID BOOST HIGHS ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS A DAY NEXT WEEK TO SEE RECORD HIGHS...THIS WILL BE THE
DAY TO DO IT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT STC/MSP/EAU ARE 72/74/74
RESPECTIVELY AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...THESE VALUES COULD VERY WELL BE CHALLENGED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE LOOK TOO WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SEE
ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DRY.
INSTEAD...RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE GET BEHIND THE
FRONT. PART TWO OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
THU/FRI...WITH A POST FRONTAL DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKING TO BECOME
ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF WRN WI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. P-TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS BY THE
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO
THE LIGHT RAIN AND MIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN WEST
CENTRAL WI...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL OF OUR
MINNESOTA TERMINALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR
VISIBILITY COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
THE RAIN AND MIST...AND IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN ON
SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 13Z-17Z...AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 19Z
ON SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
927 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 922 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog has developed within the last hour or so across far
southeast MO and extreme northwest KY. The NARRE-TL, SREF, and last
5 runs of the HRRR all are in good agreement that light southeast
flow on the periphery of the eastern U.S. anticyclone will allow
for this fog to both spread and develop into southeast MO and southwest
IL overnight. I have updated the forecast to mention areas of dense
fog overnight with patchy dense fog on the northern periphery,
lasting through 900 am or so. An advisory may ultimately be needed
once we see how this materializes and how far north.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
An elongated area of high pressure centered over Kentucky and West
Virginia and stretching back through the Mississippi Valley into
northeast Texas will continue to drift eastward tonight. The ridge
axis will remain over the eastern Ozarks which will bring very light
wind to the area along and south of I-70. Think there will be
enough radiational cooling with left over moisture from yesterday`s
rain that we`ll see fog in sheltered areas and river
valleys...primarily along and south of I-70. Fog may become more
widespread...tho am not certain of how likely this is due to some
decent drying conditions today with warm temperatures and lower
dewpoints. At any rate, it should be a fairly cool night under the
influence of the high pressure. Guidance temps in the 40s looked
reasonable.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Still appears tranquil and unseasonably mild conditions are on tap
for the first half of the new work week. Primary question is if
and/or how much low cloudiness the increasing low level return flow
will push back into the area, and the impact of this potential
cloudiness on temps. Yesterday`s guidance was not at all bullish
on clouds, while today`s model output seems to be offering more
clues that there could be some lower clouds sneaking back north. At
this point I`ve just hinted at a few more clouds in some locations,
and maintained going forecast trends of daytime highs in the 70s
since there is no major change to the expected cloud cover at this
point.
Regardless of the amount of low cloudiness, the lack of significant
lower tropospheric moisture and upper dynamics certainly points to
tranquil and dry early November weather through Wednesday.
Medium range solutions are still forecasting deep upper trof to be
carved out over the western U.S. during the early part of the week,
with this system then kicking east and working its way into the
central CONUS in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. 12z guidance
suggests that there could be some elevated convection developing
across the area as early as Thursday as moisture advection and
isentropic ascent occurs with the intensifying southerly flow over
the Plains and Mississippi Valley. However, model consensus points
to a fairly potent lead shortwave pushing into the area on
Thursday night, and highest PoPs should be tied to this feature as
the UVV of the shortwave and the associated cold front combines
with the increasingly moist AMS. If some of the quicker solutions
verify the precipitation could end early on Friday, but with so
much of the upper trof lagging to the west have maintained a
mention of rain throughout the day, with dry weather returning
for next weekend.
Temperatures during the extended will also take a big dip from
their very mild levels of early in the week, with highs dropping
back into the 50s by next Saturday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
With surface ridge overhead will have clear skies and light and
variable winds through the forecast period. Atmosphere mixed out
pretty good for KCOU and KUIN, but could still see some fog
development over STL metro area late tonight. So kept MVFR vsby
mention in these tafs through daybreak.
Specifics for KSTL:
With surface ridge overhead will have clear skies and light and
variable winds through the forecast period. Could still see some
fog development over STL metro area late tonight. So kept MVFR
vsby mention in these tafs through daybreak on Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
138 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
Band of rain near the I-44/I-55 corridor is forecast to creep
eastward this afternoon as it slowly weakens. Rain should
dissipate from west to northeast through late afternoon. Latest
runs of the HRRR actually develop what looks like a second band of
rain over the next couple of hours over southwest Illinois, and
the RAP is following suit. Have therefore kept high
chance/categorical PoPs in the forecast for the rest of the
afternoon, even though it`s not raining there at this time.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
A damp dreary cloudy cool day is on tap today as the region receives
another shot of much needed rain. Main moisture axis has shifted
into SE MO and sthrn IL overnight. The eastward progression of the
moisture axis should slow some this mrng and as such I have the
highest PoPs from the STL metro area to the S and E. Addtnl precip
should continue to dvlp this mrng across cntrl/NE MO and w cntrl IL
in advance of the upper lvl trof. This precip should be in the form
of intermittent rain and have continued likely/categorical PoPs to
account for this activity. Since the SFC low will remain well north
of the CWA...across sthrn Canada...sthrly flow will continue thru
the day. Even so, the widespread clouds and precip will limit the
diurnal rise to 5 to 10 degrees which puts highs in the mid 50s to
near 60. The upper level trof should pass in tandem with the SFC
cold front from this aftn thru the evng. This will bring an end to
the precip and clear out the clouds from west to east.
2%
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
The passage of the northern TROF axis thru our region around sunset
should shunt the moist atmospheric column to our southeast, and
rapidly scale back what light rain is left with probably just a
few sprinkles early in the evening with dry thereafter.
The southern component to the TROF axis will then track slowly
eastward as it intensifies a bit more--staying to our south during
this time--tracking harmlessly by our region Sunday night. The
westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday and then southwesterly Monday
thru Wednesday, coupled with southerly surface flow and an absence
of upper level disturbances, will usher in a unseasonably warm
period for early November, with max temps each day at least in the
mid 70s with dry wx. Surface flow looks to be more due south versus
southwest, but if this favors a stronger westerly component, could
see 80F for max temps on some days given this setup.
Upper level disturbances coupled with a surface cold front look to
impact our region by Thursday and continue into Friday, bringing
an end to the dry and warm period with temps scaling back towards
normal by next weekend with another round or two of rain. Thunder
chances look pretty minimal at this time, but will need to see in
what manner the main storm system ejects out of the southwestern
CONUS and there`s plenty of time to watch that.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
IFR ceilings will prevail across parts of central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois this afternoon...while low end
MVFR ceilings will likely overspread much of the rest of the area
from I-44 northeast through the STL Metro area and along and
northeast of the I-70 in Illinois. An are of rain and drizzle
stretching from southwest of KSGF up along I-44 through east
central MO into central IL will produce occasional IFR vsbys as it
continues to move slowly east. Think this area of rain will
gradually diminish through the afternoon. Clouds should clear from
west to east late this afternoon/evening. Given moist ground and
light wind, expect fog overnight across central and northeast MO
and west central IL, and it`s possible there will be fog across
much of the area tonight though current thinking is that high
clouds streaming across eastern MO and southern IL may keep fog
confined further west. Any fog that develops should dissipate
after sunrise Sunday morning and VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail afterward.
Specifics for KSTL:
Area of rain just west of the terminal will gradually overspread
Lambert over the next hour. This will produce occasional IFR vsbys
for a few hours this afternoon, and likely ceilings below
2,000ft...possibly below 1,000ft, though I am less certain of
that. The band of rain should gradually dissipate during the late
afternoon. Not sure how long the lower ceilings will prevail, but
guidance is pretty adamant about it breaking up between 00Z and
03z. VFR flight conditions are expected afterwards. There is the
possibility of fog development later tonight, but current thinking
is that high clouds streaming over the area from the southwest
will hinder fog development.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
942 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ENOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATON AROUND THE BILLINGS AREA SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROPS ON WINDSHIELDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
MEASURABLE RAIN. CLOUDY AND COOL MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
LIVINGSTON AREA WITH MODELS PROJECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE
FALLS MOVING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET AND THEN BEGINNING TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINOR
UPDATE TO ADD SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. BORSUM
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIND
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS BAND HAVE REPORTED UP TO 0.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION THE PRECIPITATION
HAS PUSHED STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION WINDS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MORNING...MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE AT 3 AM. HRRR INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SAG SOUTH AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE HARDIN TO BROADUS TO
SHERIDAN AREA.
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH
ALL NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BUILD BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS...AND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH FOR BIG TIMBER
AND HARLOWTON. FURTHER EAST EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY NIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE...MAINLY ON HIGHER EXPOSED
HILLTOPS. AS WITH THIS MORNING THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY BUT TURNS RIGHT OFF THE
PACIFIC WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA.
WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE IN THE DAY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LIKELY
POPS FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THOSE PLANNING BACK COUNTRY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
AWARE THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. ALSO...PRECIPITATION
ON WEST FACING SLOPES COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE DIRT ROADS
DIFFICULT TO DRIVE ON. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS AS WELL AS WITH ENSEMBLE AND HISTORICAL
ANALOGS. THIS IS LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID WEEK.
CONSENSUS QPF IS LEANING TOWARD A WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND A
HALF OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS PACKAGE REFLECTS
THIS CONFIDENCE.
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR BEING PULLED IN
FROM THE NORTH AS THE SURFACE TO 850MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
WYOMING ON MONDAY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND IS
RELATED TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS. IN OTHER
WORDS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
FALL AS SNOW AND WHERE IT IS WEAK A MIX OR JUST PLAIN RAIN MAY
FALL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EACH MODEL HAS SOME VARIED
OPINIONS ON THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THUS WHERE THE MOST COOLING WILL
OCCUR AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 30S ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL THE STORM IS IN PROGRESS.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW LOWERING OF
SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONGEST SET
OF DYNAMICS PUSH OVER THE AREA.
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME MORNING ROAD CONDITION ISSUES
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO SEE THE WORST ROAD CONDITIONS ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
FROM BILLINGS WEST. AS FAR AS HIGHLITES ARE CONCERNED THE LATEST
QPF/SNOW TOTALS WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW HIGHLITES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE CONCERNS WILL
MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF MAKING ANY WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY TO TRY AND NARROW DOWN THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING BUILDING IN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUMPING ON SOME FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING
SKIES AS THEY PROG LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR THIS SEASON IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PROGGED IN SOME SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THAT COULD BRING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND MORE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO SATURDAY.
CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUN. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE NE BIGHORNS. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. FOR SUN MORNING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS
OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS WITH AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER
THE CRAZYS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING FOR KMLS
AND KSHR. GUSTY W TO SW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 KT. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 046/063 039/052 035/040 029/039 022/040 025/044
1/E 01/B 24/R 77/O 76/O 21/B 11/B
LVM 060 048/060 034/047 031/037 025/035 020/040 023/043
3/W 22/R 36/O 98/O 85/S 21/B 11/B
HDN 065 042/065 035/054 035/043 029/038 023/042 023/046
2/W 11/E 24/O 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
MLS 062 045/065 038/055 035/041 029/037 024/042 023/043
1/N 20/B 33/R 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
4BQ 063 043/066 036/056 036/047 030/038 025/045 025/047
1/N 01/B 23/R 65/R 54/S 21/B 11/B
BHK 058 042/063 034/054 034/042 027/037 022/041 021/042
0/N 20/N 22/R 75/O 55/S 21/B 11/B
SHR 064 040/064 034/052 031/046 027/037 022/043 022/046
1/E 01/N 24/O 55/O 66/S 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
412 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIND
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS BAND HAVE REPORTED UP TO 0.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION THE PRECIPITATION
HAS PUSHED STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION WINDS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MORNING...MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE AT 3 AM. HRRR INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SAG SOUTH AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE HARDIN TO BROADUS TO
SHERIDAN AREA.
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH
ALL NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BUILD BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS...AND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH FOR BIG TIMBER
AND HARLOWTON. FURTHER EAST EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY NIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE...MAINLY ON HIGHER EXPOSED
HILLTOPS. AS WITH THIS MORNING THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY BUT TURNS RIGHT OFF THE
PACIFIC WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA.
WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE IN THE DAY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LIKELY
POPS FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THOSE PLANNING BACK COUNTRY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
AWARE THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. ALSO...PRECIPITATION
ON WEST FACING SLOPES COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE DIRT ROADS
DIFFICULT TO DRIVE ON. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS AS WELL AS WITH ENSEMBLE AND HISTORICAL
ANALOGS. THIS IS LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID WEEK.
CONSENSUS QPF IS LEANING TOWARD A WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND A
HALF OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS PACKAGE REFLECTS
THIS CONFIDENCE.
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR BEING PULLED IN
FROM THE NORTH AS THE SURFACE TO 850MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
WYOMING ON MONDAY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND IS
RELATED TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS. IN OTHER
WORDS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
FALL AS SNOW AND WHERE IT IS WEAK A MIX OR JUST PLAIN RAIN MAY
FALL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EACH MODEL HAS SOME VARIED
OPINIONS ON THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THUS WHERE THE MOST COOLING WILL
OCCUR AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 30S ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL THE STORM IS IN PROGRESS.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW LOWERING OF
SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONGEST SET
OF DYNAMICS PUSH OVER THE AREA.
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME MORNING ROAD CONDITION ISSUES
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO SEE THE WORST ROAD CONDITIONS ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
FROM BILLINGS WEST. AS FAR AS HIGHLITES ARE CONCERNED THE LATEST
QPF/SNOW TOTALS WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW HIGHLITES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE CONCERNS WILL
MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF MAKING ANY WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY TO TRY AND NARROW DOWN THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING BUILDING IN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUMPING ON SOME FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING
SKIES AS THEY PROG LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR THIS SEASON IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PROGGED IN SOME SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THAT COULD BRING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND MORE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO SATURDAY.
CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLVM THROUGH TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE
LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KMLS AND KSHR AS A 40 TO 50KT WESTERLY JET
AROUND 1500FT AGL OR LOWER MOVES OVER THESE TERMINALS... WITH KBIL
ALSO APPROACHING 25KTS OF SHEAR AS WELL. VICINITY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH HIGHER CONFIDENCES AT KBIL AND KLVM TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. MROWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 046/063 039/052 035/040 029/039 022/040 025/044
1/E 01/B 24/R 77/O 76/O 21/B 11/B
LVM 060 048/060 034/047 031/037 025/035 020/040 023/043
3/W 22/R 36/O 98/O 85/S 21/B 11/B
HDN 065 042/065 035/054 035/043 029/038 023/042 023/046
2/W 11/E 24/O 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
MLS 062 045/065 038/055 035/041 029/037 024/042 023/043
1/N 20/B 33/R 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
4BQ 063 043/066 036/056 036/047 030/038 025/045 025/047
2/W 01/B 23/R 65/R 54/S 21/B 11/B
BHK 058 042/063 034/054 034/042 027/037 022/041 021/042
0/N 20/N 22/R 75/O 55/S 21/B 11/B
SHR 064 040/064 034/052 031/046 027/037 022/043 022/046
2/W 01/N 24/R 55/O 66/S 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1243 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST. NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FOG REPORTED WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND A
MILE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING WILL BE AN END TO THE RAINFALL.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST. IT LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY
BREAK.
AS THE CLOUDS MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THE AREA OF FOG ALSO APPROACHES.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECT THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SOME TOO. EACH
RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. THE BAND OF FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAIRLY NARROW. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AS LOW AS THEY
WERE EARLIER. THEN THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. THIS IN TURN COULD MAKE IT SO THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS HAS ALREADY
TURNED WINDS A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. WITH WINDS TURNING
WESTERLY ALREADY THE FOG WILL HAVE A LITTLE HARDER TIME FORMING. AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT WITH WEST WINDS THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY WELL. THE WEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THIS PERIOD HAS A CLEAR SEPARATION IN WEATHER REGIMES...RANGING FROM
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...THEN TURNING
COLDER AND WET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ISSUES WITH THE START TO NOVEMBER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD 70S EACH
DAY FAVORS A MORE MID-SEPTEMBER FEEL. DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL BE
A KEY DRIVER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLE PUSHING SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY
OTHER THAN ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS.
CHANGES START TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS COOLER
AIR WILL SHOW ITS CARDS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
BUT THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM. NONE-THE-LESS...THE FRONT WILL PULL
THROUGH NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT A
DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
GFS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS RECORD OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT. IT GIVES REASON TO FORETELL A
POTENTIAL GOOD RAIN WILL AGAIN WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
SIGNS OF COLD ENOUGH AIR BY FRIDAY AM THAT SOME WHITE STUFF IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HAVEN/T
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT...BUT DID ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WIND
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 23Z
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...GUERRERO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST. NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FOG REPORTED WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND A
MILE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING WILL BE AN END TO THE RAINFALL.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST. IT LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY
BREAK.
AS THE CLOUDS MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THE AREA OF FOG ALSO APPROACHES.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECT THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SOME TOO. EACH
RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. THE BAND OF FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAIRLY NARROW. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AS LOW AS THEY
WERE EARLIER. THEN THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. THIS IN TURN COULD MAKE IT SO THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS HAS ALREADY
TURNED WINDS A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. WITH WINDS TURNING
WESTERLY ALREADY THE FOG WILL HAVE A LITTLE HARDER TIME FORMING. AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT WITH WEST WINDS THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY WELL. THE WEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THIS PERIOD HAS A CLEAR SEPARATION IN WEATHER REGIMES...RANGING FROM
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...THEN TURNING
COLDER AND WET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ISSUES WITH THE START TO NOVEMBER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD 70S EACH
DAY FAVORS A MORE MID-SEPTEMBER FEEL. DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL BE
A KEY DRIVER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLE PUSHING SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY
OTHER THAN ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS.
CHANGES START TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS COOLER
AIR WILL SHOW ITS CARDS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
BUT THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM. NONE-THE-LESS...THE FRONT WILL PULL
THROUGH NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT A
DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
GFS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS RECORD OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT. IT GIVES REASON TO FORETELL A
POTENTIAL GOOD RAIN WILL AGAIN WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
SIGNS OF COLD ENOUGH AIR BY FRIDAY AM THAT SOME WHITE STUFF IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HAVEN/T
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT...BUT DID ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THEY
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE HAVE BEEN NEARBY STATIONS THAT HAVE HAD LIFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS
COULD COME IN...BUT EXPECT THAT THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE
SOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THEN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
331 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST. NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FOG REPORTED WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND A
MILE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING WILL BE AN END TO THE RAINFALL.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST. IT LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY
BREAK.
AS THE CLOUDS MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THE AREA OF FOG ALSO APPROACHES.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECT THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SOME TOO. EACH
RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. THE BAND OF FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAIRLY NARROW. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AS LOW AS THEY
WERE EARLIER. THEN THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. THIS IN TURN COULD MAKE IT SO THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS HAS ALREADY
TURNED WINDS A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. WITH WINDS TURNING
WESTERLY ALREADY THE FOG WILL HAVE A LITTLE HARDER TIME FORMING. AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT WITH WEST WINDS THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY WELL. THE WEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THIS PERIOD HAS A CLEAR SEPARATION IN WEATHER REGIMES...RANGING FROM
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...THEN TURNING
COLDER AND WET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ISSUES WITH THE START TO NOVEMBER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD 70S EACH
DAY FAVORS A MORE MID-SEPTEMBER FEEL. DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL BE
A KEY DRIVER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLE PUSHING SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY
OTHER THAN ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS.
CHANGES START TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS COOLER
AIR WILL SHOW ITS CARDS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
BUT THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM. NONE-THE-LESS...THE FRONT WILL PULL
THROUGH NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT A
DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
GFS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS RECORD OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT. IT GIVES REASON TO FORETELL A
POTENTIAL GOOD RAIN WILL AGAIN WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
SIGNS OF COLD ENOUGH AIR BY FRIDAY AM THAT SOME WHITE STUFF IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HAVEN/T
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT...BUT DID ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITY AND KEPT IT IN LONGER. NOT SURE IF THE
VISIBILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT BUT TRENDED DOWNWARD. THERE
ARE A COUPLE LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH VISIBILITY OF LESS
THAN A MILE. ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND START TO INCREASE
THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE...BUT THAT COULD BE LATER IN THE
MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
903 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND THE NORTH REMAINING CLEAR...LOWER CIGS OVER MANITOBA IS
STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER...AS EXPECTED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW.
00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT...AND GENERATING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE EXTENDED WESTWARD THE INHERITED LOW
POPS TO INCLUDE ZONES SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. ANY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF IT DOES REACH THE SFC. RUC GUIDANCE SEEMS
TOO BULLISH FOR QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN EXPETED MID LEVEL CIGS. WILL
MONITOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL HOWEVER WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT VS CALM...AND BE ENOUGH FOR SIG FOG DEVELOPMENT.
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING FOGS INTO GRIDS ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT BUT OF
COURSE THERE WILL ALSO BE TEMP AND CLOUD QUESTIONS TOO. AS FOR NOW
ARE SEEING THE DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST MN.
THE W-SW WIND SWITCH SHOULD STILL BRING A LATE RUN AT HIGH TEMPS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD
LIGHTEN UP BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE WESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD
MAINLY KEEP SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE LOW CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
CURRENTLY THINK THESE MAY APPROACH AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THAT. A JET STREAK MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. MONDAY LOOKS
DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY MILD. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST FA MON NIGHT BUT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO TUE/WED BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING IT
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THEREFORE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
SYSTEM WILL FELT OVER THE NORTHWEST FA AND POSSIBLY THE FAR
NORTHERN VALLEY. EVEN THEN LOOKING AT THE STEADIER RAIN STAYING
FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING UP THRU THE FA IT
WILL SET UP A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHS VARIATIONS TUE/WED OF 20 DEGREES OR MORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH
BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND UNDERNEATH A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE
OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO A PART OF THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...THEN 500 MB FLOW FLATTENS THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY AFFECT LAKE OF THE WOODS SATURDAY SO KEPT LOW POPS GIVEN
BY MODEL BLEND FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIODS. LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY AFT
MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEARING ALONG THE INTL
BORDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT TAF SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1242 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WERE COMMON. THE LOW STRATUS DECK BEING PULLED
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW COUNTIES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST. UNDER THIS DECK TEMPERATURES WERE STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH
TODAY. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TEMPERATURES WERE REBOUNDING IN THE 50S. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LIGHT RAIN ENDING A BIT SOONER OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THEREFORE...TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS BANK THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND THEIR SOLUTIONS
WRAP AROUND THIS STRATUS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MOST LOCATIONS...STARTING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR FAR WEST. BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA CONTINUES EAST ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK
WARM FRONT.PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z FOR ALL BUT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z...THEN
QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN INCREASING MIXED LAYER
COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP
ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND LOOKS TO AID STRONG WINDS SUSTAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.NAM BUFKIT SHOWS 35-40KTS AVAILABLE AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH THE GFS BUFKIT 40-45KTS. OPTED TO
GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST...STARTING
THE WEST AT 11Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF MY CENTRAL AND EAST 15Z.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-
DAY AS PRESSURE RISES DECREASE ONCE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
23-00Z ELSEWHERE...OR 6-7PM AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET.
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH WEAK CAA DEPICTED
FOR TODAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
NEXT WAVE IN OUR SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS
THIS MORNINGS FEATURE...AND ALSO TAKES A MORE NORTH TRACK CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BY ACROSS MY FAR NORTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
TYPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BY ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND TEMPS ALOFT WELL ABOVE 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO POSSIBLY MANIFEST ITSELF IN TWO ROUNDS. THE FIRST
POSSIBLE ROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SECOND POTENTIAL ROUND OF
THE STORM WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. WHILE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND OF THE STORM ARE CLOSE
TO CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS AND ARE LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT AND WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ANY CHANGES IN TIMING IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 40
MPH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-032>034-041-042-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
927 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LIGHT RAIN ENDING A BIT SOONER OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THEREFORE...TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS BANK THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND THEIR SOLUTIONS
WRAP AROUND THIS STRATUS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MOST LOCATIONS...STARTING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR FAR WEST. BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA CONTINUES EAST ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK
WARM FRONT.PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z FOR ALL BUT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z...THEN
QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN INCREASING MIXED LAYER
COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP
ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND LOOKS TO AID STRONG WINDS SUSTAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.NAM BUFKIT SHOWS 35-40KTS AVAILABLE AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH THE GFS BUFKIT 40-45KTS. OPTED TO
GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST...STARTING
THE WEST AT 11Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF MY CENTRAL AND EAST 15Z.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-
DAY AS PRESSURE RISES DECREASE ONCE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
23-00Z ELSEWHERE...OR 6-7PM AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET.
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH WEAK CAA DEPICTED
FOR TODAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
NEXT WAVE IN OUR SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS
THIS MORNINGS FEATURE...AND ALSO TAKES A MORE NORTH TRACK CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BY ACROSS MY FAR NORTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
TYPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BY ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND TEMPS ALOFT WELL ABOVE 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO POSSIBLY MANIFEST ITSELF IN TWO ROUNDS. THE FIRST
POSSIBLE ROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SECOND POTENTIAL ROUND OF
THE STORM WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. WHILE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND OF THE STORM ARE CLOSE
TO CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS AND ARE LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT AND WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ANY CHANGES IN TIMING IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KISN AND KMOT THIS MORNING.
KBIS AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
STRATUS DECK LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST AREA
WIDE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-032>034-041-042-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS BANK THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND THEIR SOLUTIONS
WRAP AROUND THIS STRATUS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MOST LOCATIONS...STARTING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR FAR WEST. BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA CONTINUES EAST ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK
WARM FRONT.PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z FOR ALL BUT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z...THEN
QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN INCREASING MIXED LAYER
COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP
ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND LOOKS TO AID STRONG WINDS SUSTAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.NAM BUFKIT SHOWS 35-40KTS AVAILABLE AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH THE GFS BUFKIT 40-45KTS. OPTED TO
GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST...STARTING
THE WEST AT 11Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF MY CENTRAL AND EAST 15Z.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-
DAY AS PRESSURE RISES DECREASE ONCE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
23-00Z ELSEWHERE...OR 6-7PM AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET.
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH WEAK CAA DEPICTED
FOR TODAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
NEXT WAVE IN OUR SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS
THIS MORNINGS FEATURE...AND ALSO TAKES A MORE NORTH TRACK CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BY ACROSS MY FAR NORTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
TYPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BY ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND TEMPS ALOFT WELL ABOVE 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO POSSIBLY MANIFEST ITSELF IN TWO ROUNDS. THE FIRST
POSSIBLE ROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SECOND POTENTIAL ROUND OF
THE STORM WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. WHILE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND OF THE STORM ARE CLOSE
TO CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS AND ARE LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT AND WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ANY CHANGES IN TIMING IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KISN AND KMOT THIS MORNING.
KBIS AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
STRATUS DECK LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST AREA
WIDE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-032>034-041-042-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
935 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog appears imminent where skies are clear and even at KMLC
where low clouds have remained, visibilities are dropping quickly.
Have issued a dense fog advisory for all but parts of far
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas until 10 am Monday.
Low clouds from far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas
may prevent widespread dense fog from forming there, but this
will need to be monitored as the night goes on. Made a few minor
adjustments to overnight lows tonight as well.
Both the HRRR and the new 00Z NAM suggest fog will persist well
into Monday morning, and perhaps until closer to midday from
about the Interstate 44 corridor to the northwest. This may impact
high temperatures Monday, but still expect a strong rally in the
afternoon when the sun comes out so will leave high temperatures
Monday as is for now.
Update on the way.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for OKZ054>074.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
311 PM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER BUT
COOL WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE CORE OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW OVER THE NORTH OREGON COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. A WAVE
ON THE FRONT THAT WAS OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
ASHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NESDIS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS HAD ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH/HOUR
OVER WESTERN WA. OBSERVED RAINFALL IN OROGRAPHICALY FAVORED AREAS IN
THE WILLAPA HILLS AND NW OREGON COAST RANGE ARE CLOSE TO THAT
ESTIMATE. AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC AND WAHKIAKUM
COUNTIES AS WELL THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WA INTERIOR ZONES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE GRAY RIVER NEAR ROSBURG HAS GONE
OVER FLOOD STAGE.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 6 PM...8 PM FOR THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND 11 PM FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH SAGS INTO
THE REGION. A VORT MAX BETWEEN 130 AND 145W OFF THE B.C. COAST IS
FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE AREA SUN MORNING FOR INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST
RANGE WESTWARD THRU SUN EVENING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS INLINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC NW SUN
AND MON AIR MASS WILL COOL. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AS WELL AS
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. AN ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW AT H8 WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 30 KT INTO SUN AS SNOW LEVELS DIP DOWN TO PASS LEVELS. DAYTIME
TEMPS AT THE PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO WARM TO SEE MUCH
ACCUMULATION...THEN AS THE OROGRAHPICS WEAKEN SUN NIGHT MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. COOLER AIR ALOFT SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE UNSTABLE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ENOUGH TO WARRANT CARRYING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN...BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO DROP OFF LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES E. SHORTWAVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THOUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MON.
.LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A SHOWERY AIR
MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND COULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WET
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE SLIGHT RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS. /64
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AS OF 3 PM AND GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
...WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W-SW.
CONDITIONS IN A FAIRLY WELL- MIXED POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. 30 TO 40
KT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LINGER OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY HAS BROUGHT
LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FRONT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED THROUGH THE
S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COASTAL WATERS AT THIS POINT...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO SW BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ALLOWED THE
EXISTING GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT
EXPECT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KT INTO THIS EVENING.
WILL HANG ONTO THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE SOUTH.
WIND SPEEDS EASE A BIT THIS EVENING...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATER TO
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...WHERE ANOTHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30 KT
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ONCE THE GALE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPIRED.
WINDS BEGIN TO WEAK LATER SUN. THEN HIGH PRES SPREADS INTO THE
WATERS MON. MODELS SUGGEST NORTH WIND 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY END UP REQUIRED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE...AND EXPECT THEM
TO REMAIN AROUND THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WESTERLY SWELL INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. LATEST ENP RUN HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD A BIT WITH 20 TO 21 FT WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING THE WATERS
BETWEEN 15Z SUN AND 00Z MON...BUT DECAYING TO 18 TO 19 FT AS IT
REACHES THE SURF ZONE. IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL FALL JUST
SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUN NIGHT AND MON. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN
COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST SUNDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE E GRT LKS EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RESULTING
IN LINGERING PATCH OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN PA AT 10Z. LATEST
SATL LOOP SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC
MTNS AND GIVEN LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN
THIS AREA ARND DAYBREAK.
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA ACROSS
CENTRAL PA TODAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL KEEP CENTRAL PA DRY
TODAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.
THICKENING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL TODAY...DESPITE
WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S OVR
MOST OF CENTRAL PA...A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GRT LKS TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL
MID LVL Q-VEC CONV FIELDS...WILL PASS NORTH OF PA. THEREFORE...BEST
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHERE ENSEMBLE DATA
SUPPORTS POPS APPROACHING 100 PCT TONIGHT AND RAINFALL AMTS ARND
0.10 INCHES.
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SCT -SHRA TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LL
JET EARLY SUNDAY AM. AFTER A CLOUDY START...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PARTIAL
CLEARING BY SUN AFTN AS WESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DRAW A
RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN INTO PA...RESULTING IN
TEMPS A BIT ABV NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PA
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ASSOC RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ALL
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AND THUS
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MON-MON
NIGHT.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE
ANOMALOUS +1-2SD 500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 10+ DEGREES APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES MAKING A STRONG RUN AT 70F
DEGREES.
00Z ECENS OUTPUT SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOC WARM/DRY WX
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVR THE EAST COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING
OUR NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
RESULTING IN LINGERING PATCH OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY THIS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS
MY MID MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK.
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SAT EVE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOWERING CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE
SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN LIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SWINGS OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY AT KBFD/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SCTD TO NUMEROUS LATE NIGHT-SUNDAY AM
SHOWERS. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY INVOF KBFD.
MON-WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
306 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RESULTING
IN LINGERING PATCH OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN PA AT 05Z. LATEST RAP
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARDS DAWN. GIVEN THAT 05Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN
THIS AREA ARE ALREADY VERY LOW...BELIEVE THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG ARND DAYBREAK AS 00Z DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGESTS.
OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS MADE WITH
THE WESTERN CLOUDS NOT MOVING ANY MORE TO THE WEST BUT SEVERE
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...TO THE M30S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WAA ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND AFOREMENTIONED VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
WHILE RETURN FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID 50S AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MILDER SOUTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL/SPLIT PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
3-5 NOVEMBER.
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE THAT A LOW
AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH W/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL
IMPINGE ON THE LOWER LAKES REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
RELATIVELY STRONG SSWLY H85 LLJ SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WAA AND
MSTR TRANSPORT OF NEAR-1-INCH PWS INTO THE UPPER OH VLY/NW PA TO
MAINTAIN A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONTAL/SHOWER BAND IS MADE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SRN STREAM ENERGY TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS STATES
THRU THE TN VLY/SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-MON REMAINS A
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELING OUTPUT. THE
EC/GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS MUCH DEEPER VS
CONSENSUS. PREFER THE OOZ ECENS AND GFS SOLNS WHICH TRACK A
FASTER/WEAKER WAVE WELL SOUTH OF PA MONDAY. THIS APPROACH
CONTINUES TO YIELD LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN PA SUN NITE/MONDAY WITH
THE GREATEST RAIN RISK ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN TUE-THU. THE
ANOMALOUS +1-2SD 500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 10+ DEGREES APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES MAKING A STRONG RUN AT 70F
DEGREES. TEMPS SHOULD START TO TREND COOLER/BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
RESULTING IN LINGERING PATCH OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY THIS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS
MY MID MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK.
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SAT EVE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOWERING CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE
SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN LIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SWINGS OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY AT KBFD/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SCTD TO NUMEROUS LATE NIGHT-SUNDAY AM
SHOWERS. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY INVOF KBFD.
MON-WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF
3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF
THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES
EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
STEADY RAIN SHOULD END IN A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR...AROUND 1930 AT
JBR...2030 AT MEM...2200 AT MKL AND 2300 AT TUP. CIGS WILL LOWER
JUST BEFORE OR SLIGHTLY AFTER RAIN COMES TO AN END. EXPECTING IFR
OR LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING. VIS IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO AT LEAST IFR TONIGHT AS
WELL. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...5-10KT
TODAY...LESS THAN 5KT OVERNIGHT.
30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
842 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR TODAY/S SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SKIES TO ALSO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW DEPARTS. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK BUT ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL... CLEARING SKIES... AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
PRECIP IS MOVING OFF TO THE NE AND SOME CLEARING IS NOTED OVER
THE SW ZONES. ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD A HRRR/SREF BLEND FOR
VISIBILITY AND LIFR CIGS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 14-16Z MONDAY
WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTN. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE
SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY.
UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD TRENDS
HOLDING ONTO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO KEEP UP WITH THOSE TRENDS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TIMING OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD
FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN OVERALL WET PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH SLOWER BUT
ENOUGH FOR SOME DIFFERENCES. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS NEXT SUNDAY.
IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TALK IMPACTS BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...HOPEFULLY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS YET AGAIN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
DETERMINE THESE DETAILS AND IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST.
39
MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND DID ADJUST THEM SOME WITH THE UPDATE.
WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH THIS TREND TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPING TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST A BIT UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER
OFFSHORE WINDS/DECREASED SEAS. SELY WINDS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE MON...THE PERSISTING THRU THE REST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 76 58 78 61 / 20 10 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 59 78 62 / 30 10 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 67 74 69 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
554 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRECIP IS MOVING OFF TO THE NE AND SOME CLEARING IS NOTED OVER
THE SW ZONES. ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD A HRRR/SREF BLEND FOR
VISIBILITY AND LIFR CIGS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 14-16Z MONDAY
WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE
SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY.
UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD TRENDS
HOLDING ONTO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO KEEP UP WITH THOSE TRENDS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TIMING OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD
FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN OVERALL WET PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH SLOWER BUT
ENOUGH FOR SOME DIFFERENCES. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS NEXT SUNDAY.
IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TALK IMPACTS BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...HOPEFULLY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS YET AGAIN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
DETERMINE THESE DETAILS AND IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST.
39
MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND DID ADJUST THEM SOME WITH THE UPDATE.
WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH THIS TREND TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPING TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST A BIT UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER
OFFSHORE WINDS/DECREASED SEAS. SELY WINDS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE MON...THE PERSISTING THRU THE REST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 76 58 78 61 / 20 10 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 59 78 62 / 30 10 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 67 74 69 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED THROUGH KDRT AND WILL BEGIN THAT
TAF WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS THERE HAVE ALSO IMPROVED
TO VFR. FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES...IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD BE UNTIL AFTER THE LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH. THE LINE
SHOULD BE INTO THE SITES AROUND 7-9Z AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH
VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE
LINE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW HAVE VFR RETURNING BY LATE MORNING BUT THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO LATE GIVEN THAT KDRT IS ALREADY VFR. WILL AMEND
THE TAFS AS NECESSARY BASED ON FUTURE TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
UPDATE... /WATCH EXPANSION FOR SVA NUMBER 525/
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF A SUPERCELL
MOVING THROUGH GILLESPIE COUNTY SUGGESTING A FORWARD SHIFT IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FIVE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WERE ADDED AS
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY REPLACE THE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. HELICITIES ANALYZED IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 200
M2/S2 ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-75 KNOTS AND MU CAPES AT
AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THIS EASTWARD SHIFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
UPDATE...
ROUND TWO OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ONE SEVERE STORM IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 55-70 KNOTS. A PACIFIC FRONT OR DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD NOT
MOVE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 14Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
CLEARING THINGS OUT. WITH AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE FURTHER PROLONGED
CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTAL. EVEN THOUGH THESE TOTALS
ARE NOT HIGH...1-2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO FURTHER QUICK RISES OF
AREA CREEKS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED EXTREME RAINFALL TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 52 KNOTS. DURING THESE
STORMS CIGS AND VBSYS WITH LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING (16Z) SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 77 50 80 53 / 10 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 77 48 80 49 / 10 - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 78 51 81 52 / - 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 75 51 79 52 / 10 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 82 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 75 51 79 51 / 10 10 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 50 82 51 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 77 51 80 51 / - 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 76 53 81 53 / 10 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 78 51 81 53 / - 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 57 79 51 84 54 / - 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1214 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS
CENTER AROUND PRECIP TIMING...CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTHWEST OF THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS THIS EVENING... QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT
TEMPO TERMINAL IMPACTS TO BEGIN AROUND 06Z AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
MOVES IN OFF THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY... CONTINUING TO MONITOR A
BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR DFW TO DRT AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE
REGION. STARTING TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING... WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE VARIES ON
HOW QUICKLY CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS LINE... BUT GENERAL
CONSENSUS SHOWS VFR RETURNING 18-21Z SUNDAY.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN OVERVIEW OF AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOWED A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO WACO. A VERY
GOOD INFLOW INTO THE STORMS IN CENTRAL TEXAS WAS OCCURRING...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MARINE AREAS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16 FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO CENTRAL OK...AND 700 MB DEWPOINTS
GREATER THAN 4 AT CRP AND BRO. IN CONTRAST...A CAP WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SE TEXAS AS SEEN ON THE CRP SOUNDING AND HINTED ON THE LCH
SOUNDING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT THIS EVENING SO FAR AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH AT 930 PM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
LIKE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TEXAS TECH AND HRRR WHICH SHOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BOTH MODELS THEN BRING AN AREA
OF STORMS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...FELT THAT
THE BEST TIMES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY...BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 78 59 75 55 / 90 70 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 63 76 57 / 90 90 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 67 75 65 / 90 90 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
.UPDATE... /WATCH EXPANSION FOR SVA NUMBER 525/
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF A SUPERCELL
MOVING THROUGH GILLESPIE COUNTY SUGGESTING A FORWARD SHIFT IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FIVE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WERE ADDED AS
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY REPLACE THE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. HELICITIES ANALYZED IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 200
M2/S2 ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-75 KNOTS AND MU CAPES AT
AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THIS EASTWARD SHIFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
UPDATE...
ROUND TWO OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ONE SEVERE STORM IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 55-70 KNOTS. A PACIFIC FRONT OR DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD NOT
MOVE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 14Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
CLEARING THINGS OUT. WITH AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE FURTHER PROLONGED
CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTAL. EVEN THOUGH THESE TOTALS
ARE NOT HIGH...1-2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO FURTHER QUICK RISES OF
AREA CREEKS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED EXTREME RAINFALL TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 52 KNOTS. DURING THESE
STORMS CIGS AND VBSYS WITH LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING (16Z) SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 79 57 77 50 / 70 40 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 80 57 77 48 / 70 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 57 78 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 54 75 51 / 80 30 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 79 53 82 51 / 60 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 55 75 51 / 80 40 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 54 80 50 / 60 10 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 80 57 77 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 81 59 76 53 / 80 60 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 56 78 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 57 79 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
511 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON AREA RADARS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW REPORTS OF THESE LIGHT
RETURNS REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN MN.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI.
THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A BLANKET OF
MID-CLOUDS IS INCOMING HOWEVER...AND WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD
LATER TODAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT STEEP...BUT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LIGHT QPF
DEPICTED IN THE MESOMODELS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH. BEST TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BETWEEN 03-
09Z. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
PLENTY OF LOW VSBYS PROJECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY CHUGGING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE NORTH THOUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE
SUNSHINE WILL BRING UP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH AND
UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A MILD DRY PERIOD TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE EACH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COULD BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH CLOSE TO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT THIS IS NOVEMBER.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THE LATER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THE LATER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERT ON AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER TROUGH FRAGMENTS INTO SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE A 120 KT UPPER JET PARALLELS THE FRONT. LFQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL WORK WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE ARE TOWARD FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS A MORE WEST WITH
THE FRONT AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE SLIDING OVER THE
FRONT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY WITH SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES...OTHERWISE A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
GETTING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER HEIGHTS AGAIN
BUILD FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER FOR POSSIBLE RETURN TO
MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
FAIRLY QUIET WX EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA...RESULTING IN MIDDLE CLDS STREAMING ACRS
THE REGION. ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE N
TNGT. BUT THE CHC DOES NOT SEEM SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT CARRYING IN
THE RHI TAF...ESP SINCE PCPN WOULD BE FALLING FROM A MIDDLE CLOUD
DECK. SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP AT RHI AND CWA LATE TNGT...SO WL
ADD TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THAT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
540 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN. BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD IS MOVING STEADILY EAST OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...SO IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS ONCE
THE RAIN ENDS. A RATHER POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BE PULLING OUT OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI. SOME MODELS
BRING PRECIP INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AND THIS WOULD BE
SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ENDING LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE LATE OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WI. A BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT
PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
TAKE PLACE. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MILD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A SUBTLE 850 FRONT WITH TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AIR MASS OVERALL IS DRY BUT WAA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD LIGHT PCPN.
OTHERWISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
DEEPENS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR A DRY AND MILD PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
PROGS THEN DIVERT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
FRAGMENTATION TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW AND PCPN FIELDS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. COOLING H850 TEMPS ALSO INDICATE A MIX
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN PCPN SHIELD DEPARTING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN. SECONDARY AREA
OF SHRA WL PROBABLY MV ACRS THE N LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF LOW CLDS TO THE WEST...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN. BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD IS MOVING STEADILY EAST OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...SO IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS ONCE
THE RAIN ENDS. A RATHER POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BE PULLING OUT OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI. SOME MODELS
BRING PRECIP INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AND THIS WOULD BE
SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ENDING LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE LATE OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WI. A BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT
PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
TAKE PLACE. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MILD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A SUBTLE 850 FRONT WITH TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AIR MASS OVERALL IS DRY BUT WAA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD LIGHT PCPN.
OTHERWISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
DEEPENS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR A DRY AND MILD PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
PROGS THEN DIVERT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
FRAGMENTATION TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW AND PCPN FIELDS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. COOLING H850 TEMPS ALSO INDICATE A MIX
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THOUGH THE RAIN WILL LIKELY END OVER CENTRAL WI AND THE
FOX VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR AT MOST
LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN AT RHI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THEN
THINK A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REAPPEAR WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
FROM THE DAKOTAS. IFR CIGS TO LINGER UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
321 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Satursday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not many concerns this TAF package with VFR conditions continuing at
all TAF sites next 24hrs. Only Scattered cirrus expected through
the period with southerly winds less than 10kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1115 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Skies are clear and winds are out of the south. Based on satellite
trends and model guidance, current conditions are expected to
continue remainder of the night. Fog is finally developing in
southeast IL this evening and will likely continue overnight. So,
will have to make some adjustments in the southeast for more light
fog early than current forecast. Will not issue fog advisory at
this time, but will continue to monitor for possibility later
tonight. Update will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the
upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are
approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave
across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix
out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s
across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out
from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue
over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due
to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several
hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge
axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows
some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement
all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some
better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out
this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog
mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of
I-70 to address this concern.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states
Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL
forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to
central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low
70s and light southerly winds.
By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep
trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low
level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the
development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have
increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will
continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low
cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low
70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday.
Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the
Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in
the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for
a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest
model trends
Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure
settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This
should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Not many concerns this TAF package with VFR conditions continuing at
all TAF sites next 24hrs. Only Scattered cirrus expected through
the period with southerly winds less than 10kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1257 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WSR-88D STILL SHOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP CONCENTRATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KY...THEREFORE HAVE
ONCE AGAIN LEANED IN THAT OVERALL DIRECTION THIS UPDATE GIVEN THAT
TREND AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO GIVEN SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES SEEING DROPS IN VIS WOULD
EXPECT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT...SO ADDED THAT THIS UPDATE TO MAINLY VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION TO THOSE UPDATES DID MAKE UPDATES TO TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WSR-88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY STILL
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE GRADIENT OF RAIN VERSUS NO RAIN WILL BE QUITE TIGHT.
MESO MODELS AND EVEN SOME OF THE LOWER RES MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH ACTIVITY STRUGGLING TO MAKE AS FAR
NORTH AS EVEN JACKSON. SREF PROBS OF GREATER THAN A HUNDREDTH OF
AN INCH ARE GENERALLY REMAINING INTO THE 10 PERCENT RANGE
OVERNIGHT AROUND JACKSON WITH WHITLEY...BELL...HARLAN...AND
LETCHER HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE DID OPT TO MAKE THE POP GRADIENT TIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT NEXT UPDATE POSSIBLY TIGHTENING MORE.
ALSO GIVEN REPORT OF SOME FOG ALREADY FORMING EARLY THIS EVENING
DID PUT MORE FOG IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
UPDATED TEMP/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE REGION WAS UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US CANADIAN
BORDER. A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A
CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN TX. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING BY IN SW FLOW ABOVE. THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS STILL
OCCURRING ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE THE PERIOD...THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ERODING ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO END THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A SFC
WAVE WILL TRACK BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL GET
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE NO
FURTHER NORTHWEST AND THE 12Z NAM SHARPENING UP THE GRADIENT ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ALTHOUGH THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING A BIT HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OPTED TO SHARPEN
UP THE GRADIENT IN POPS FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH LEFT THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...AND GENERALLY
KEPT THE I 64 CORRIDOR NORTH DRY. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD EXPERIENCE FOG
FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
WE WILL BE LOCKED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE BY
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS QUICKLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WAITING TO BE ENERGIZED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PROLONG...OR REDEVELOP...RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
HANG ONTO A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE AREA WITH SOME ON THE MID SLOPES. TO THE
NORTHWEST...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR THIS IN THE TAFS WITH THE MORE
NORTHERN TAF SITES SEEING MORE REDUCED VIS WHERE THE SOUTHEAST
SEEING LOW STRATUS IN SOME AREAS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT LATER
IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING AT MOST SITES
AND THEN BECOMING VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATER IN THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1236 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Will update the forecast to include a Special Weather Statement for
Patchy Dense Fog. The combination of clearing skies, calm winds, and
recent rainfall is allowing for patches of fog, some of which will
likely become dense. Most concerned about areas north of the
Parkways where we may need to upgrade to a Dense Fog Advisory for
the overnight and morning commute. Southern KY is expected to stay
more under low stratus but expect there could be some issues there
toward dawn as well. Will continue to monitor trends/obs/webcamse
over the next few hours.
Previous Update...
Issued at 810 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Low clouds run across our southern few rows of counties, whereas up
north is covered by fairly thick deck of mid/high clouds. The latter
should thin some, especially over our southern Indiana counties.
However, high-res guidance continues to indicate a narrow east-west
oriented band of clouds to fill back in at around 400 mb. These
clouds will be pivotal in preventing the formation of fog overnight,
as winds are calm at most stations and dewpoint depressions are low.
Will continue to carry patchy fog over the northern two/thirds of
the area and chances for light rain across the south. No need for a
zone update at this time.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.
For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.
For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.
The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.
Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2015
Main concern overnight will be for fog and low ceilings at the TAF
sites. Upper clouds are clearing to the east, and with clear skies,
calm winds, and recent rainfall patches of dense fog have developed.
SDF is already on the verge of going MVFR, so expect conditions to
gradually deteriorate toward dawn. Periods of vis below a mile seem
reasonable given that LOU is already 1/2 SM. Confidence is lower at
BWG due to low stratus that will slowly work northward, so have gone
with a combo of IFR vis and cigs toward dawn. LEX is expected to
progress downward the same as SDF, only delayed by an hour or two as
upper clouds are just now beginning to clear.
Otherwise, expect improvement through the mid morning with some
light NE winds and upper level clouds through the afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1057 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Widespread dense fog has developed across most of our counties,
except where cloud cover lingers in our southern west kentucky
counties. The clouds are making very slow progression north, so
believe the greatly reduced visibilities will continue. We went
ahead and issued a dense fog advisory for all but our southern
west kentucky counties through 15z.
UPDATE Issued at 516 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Fairly high confidence that most of this period will feature
warm and rainfree conditions with afternoon highs getting back
into the 70s.
A southern stream upper level low will make its way from the
TX/LA Gulf coast will gradually work its way ne into the TN River
Valley by Monday/Monday evening. It still appears as though most
of the moisture and associated precip will stay just south/east
of our forecast area...though much of wrn KY could experience
quite a bit of cloud cover. H50 ridge will then build into the
region on Tuesday. As heights rise...so will temps. As long as low
level cloud cover does not become an issue, we should see many
locations pop into the mid 70s Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue Wed/Thu as
deep swly flow develops ahead of trofing out over the swrn United
States. This trof will eventually translate ene toward the region
Thu night into Friday. An associated sfc cold front will also
approach during that time, and will bring a very good chc of
showers/sct thunderstorms with it. This system will need to be
monitored for a few strong or even isolated severe storms. Am a
bit concerned with the potential strong wind fields ahead of the
ejecting wrn H50 short wave that will combine with rich
moisture/sfc dew point around 60 as the sfc front moves in. In
addition, 12z ECMWF suggests SB CAPES may be running above 200
J/KG in some locations (modest, but sufficient to support cool
season QLCS in a high shear/low CAPE environment). For now, given
we are talking about 4+ days out, will just introduce chc of
isolated svr storms in the HWO product. Still lots of time to
monitor the svr potential with this system. May also
Drier and much cooler conditions will take over one the front
passes next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 516 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
Fog is possible overnight, mainly KCGI/KPAH, but we`ll keep a
close eye further north as well. Otherwise cloud shield slowly
moves south/east...and should ultimately break all terminals
during course of day tmrw.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for KYZ003>005-007-010-
014>016-018>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BP2/RST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1142 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Will update the forecast to include a Special Weather Statement for
Patchy Dense Fog. The combination of clearing skies, calm winds, and
recent rainfall is allowing for patches of fog, some of which will
likely become dense. Most concerned about areas north of the
Parkways where we may need to upgrade to a Dense Fog Advisory for
the overnight and morning commute. Southern KY is expected to stay
more under low stratus but expect there could be some issues there
toward dawn as well. Will continue to monitor trends/obs/webcamse
over the next few hours.
Previous Update...
Issued at 810 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2015
Low clouds run across our southern few rows of counties, whereas up
north is covered by fairly thick deck of mid/high clouds. The latter
should thin some, especially over our southern Indiana counties.
However, high-res guidance continues to indicate a narrow east-west
oriented band of clouds to fill back in at around 400 mb. These
clouds will be pivotal in preventing the formation of fog overnight,
as winds are calm at most stations and dewpoint depressions are low.
Will continue to carry patchy fog over the northern two/thirds of
the area and chances for light rain across the south. No need for a
zone update at this time.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.
For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.
For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result. The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through. High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs. These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs. Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s. Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.
The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday. Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada. A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side. There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.
Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015
Low clouds have hung on at KBWG, but are south of the SDF/LEX
corridor. With weak overrunning in the low levels expect these
clouds to remain near KBWG for most of this period...dropping again
into the IFR range overnight and into the morning hours Monday. A
concern for the SDF/LEX corridor toward daybreak is fog, as
temp/dewpoint spreads are low at this time. Sky cover should be thin
enough to allow for some cooling, but latest RAP shows a thin band
of clouds that could move across that corridor before daybreak,
short-circuiting the chance for fog. Given how narrow the band looks
to be, cannot pull fog chances out of the TAFs, but did make it a
tempo group at SDF.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE W
STATES...AND A RESULTANT RIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SWING OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LINES UP FROM ALBERTA
THROUGH NV AND S CA. LOOKING NEAR THE SFC WE WILL HAVE A BROAD
TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
/ONLY CLOUDS AND MAINLY N CLOSER TO DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE 500MB
RIDGE/. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 900MB WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THOUGH...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF INCREASED DEW POINTS JUMPING INTO
THE 50S.
SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E. THIS WILL BE AS NEARING SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ACROSS MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. EVEN ON WEDNESDAY...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD STAY W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR N AND
STRENGTHENING S FLOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO JUMP TO 11-15C AND SFC
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S /OR 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL/.
LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS E MN AND POSSIBLY THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO BY 12Z THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM E
MN TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT. YES THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
DRIER FOR THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING FROM THE S
PLAINS THROUGH IA CONSOLIDATES ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIP EXITS OVER
THE FAR W...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN. 850MB TEMPS
ONLY GET DOWN TO -1 TO NEAR -3C BY 12Z FRIDAY ON N-NNW WINDS. THE
COLDEST AIR OF -4 TO -5C SLOWLY EXPANDS ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SFC LOW EXITS
INTO S QUEBEC AND THE BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH IS ABOVE 800MB...AND
ABOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE COOL W-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C SATURDAY
CHANGING TO MORE OF A WAA FLOW SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY
AIR AT LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY MID-LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1127 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog continues to develop and become widespread across
southeast MO, northwest KY, and southern IL. All indications are
that it will spread northward and encompass the southeast quarter
to third of the LSX CWA by 12z Monday. Have coordinated with
surroundings offices to issue a dense fog advisory through 15z.
Glass
Issued at 922 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog has developed within the last hour or so across far
southeast MO and extreme northwest KY. The NARRE-TL, SREF, and last
5 runs of the HRRR all are in good agreement that light southeast
flow on the periphery of the eastern U.S. anticyclone will allow
for this fog to both spread and develop into southeast MO and southwest
IL overnight. I have updated the forecast to mention areas of dense
fog overnight with patchy dense fog on the northern periphery,
lasting through 900 am or so. An advisory may ultimately be needed
once we see how this materializes and how far north.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
An elongated area of high pressure centered over Kentucky and West
Virginia and stretching back through the Mississippi Valley into
northeast Texas will continue to drift eastward tonight. The ridge
axis will remain over the eastern Ozarks which will bring very light
wind to the area along and south of I-70. Think there will be
enough radiational cooling with left over moisture from yesterday`s
rain that we`ll see fog in sheltered areas and river
valleys...primarily along and south of I-70. Fog may become more
widespread...tho am not certain of how likely this is due to some
decent drying conditions today with warm temperatures and lower
dewpoints. At any rate, it should be a fairly cool night under the
influence of the high pressure. Guidance temps in the 40s looked
reasonable.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Still appears tranquil and unseasonably mild conditions are on tap
for the first half of the new work week. Primary question is if
and/or how much low cloudiness the increasing low level return flow
will push back into the area, and the impact of this potential
cloudiness on temps. Yesterday`s guidance was not at all bullish
on clouds, while today`s model output seems to be offering more
clues that there could be some lower clouds sneaking back north. At
this point I`ve just hinted at a few more clouds in some locations,
and maintained going forecast trends of daytime highs in the 70s
since there is no major change to the expected cloud cover at this
point.
Regardless of the amount of low cloudiness, the lack of significant
lower tropospheric moisture and upper dynamics certainly points to
tranquil and dry early November weather through Wednesday.
Medium range solutions are still forecasting deep upper trof to be
carved out over the western U.S. during the early part of the week,
with this system then kicking east and working its way into the
central CONUS in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. 12z guidance
suggests that there could be some elevated convection developing
across the area as early as Thursday as moisture advection and
isentropic ascent occurs with the intensifying southerly flow over
the Plains and Mississippi Valley. However, model consensus points
to a fairly potent lead shortwave pushing into the area on
Thursday night, and highest PoPs should be tied to this feature as
the UVV of the shortwave and the associated cold front combines
with the increasingly moist AMS. If some of the quicker solutions
verify the precipitation could end early on Friday, but with so
much of the upper trof lagging to the west have maintained a
mention of rain throughout the day, with dry weather returning
for next weekend.
Temperatures during the extended will also take a big dip from
their very mild levels of early in the week, with highs dropping
back into the 50s by next Saturday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Surface ridge extends from Ohio Valley westward through southern
Illinois and southern Missouri. So winds remain light with clear
skies. Still feel that KCOU and KUIN were able to dry out the low
levels enough today to preclude any fog formation there. As for
STL metro area, could at least see MVFR vsbys towards daybreak, so
kept mention between 10z-14z Monday. Could possibly have a decent
inversion setup Monday evening with stratus developing, so added
scattered stratus mention to metro area tafs after 04z Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge extends from Ohio Valley westward through southern
Illinois and southern Missouri. So winds remain light with clear
skies through forecast period. STL metro area could at least see
MVFR vsbys towards daybreak, so kept mention between 10z-14z
Monday. A decent inversion setup Monday evening with stratus
developing, so added scattered stratus mention to metro area tafs
after 04z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-
Fayette IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog continues to develop and become widespread across
southeast MO, northwest KY, and southern IL. All indications are
that it will spread northward and encompass the southeast quarter
to third of the LSX CWA by 12z Monday. Have coordinated with
surroundings offices to issue a dense fog advisory through 15z.
Glass
Issued at 922 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Dense fog has developed within the last hour or so across far
southeast MO and extreme northwest KY. The NARRE-TL, SREF, and last
5 runs of the HRRR all are in good agreement that light southeast
flow on the periphery of the eastern U.S. anticyclone will allow
for this fog to both spread and develop into southeast MO and southwest
IL overnight. I have updated the forecast to mention areas of dense
fog overnight with patchy dense fog on the northern periphery,
lasting through 900 am or so. An advisory may ultimately be needed
once we see how this materializes and how far north.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
An elongated area of high pressure centered over Kentucky and West
Virginia and stretching back through the Mississippi Valley into
northeast Texas will continue to drift eastward tonight. The ridge
axis will remain over the eastern Ozarks which will bring very light
wind to the area along and south of I-70. Think there will be
enough radiational cooling with left over moisture from yesterday`s
rain that we`ll see fog in sheltered areas and river
valleys...primarily along and south of I-70. Fog may become more
widespread...tho am not certain of how likely this is due to some
decent drying conditions today with warm temperatures and lower
dewpoints. At any rate, it should be a fairly cool night under the
influence of the high pressure. Guidance temps in the 40s looked
reasonable.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
Still appears tranquil and unseasonably mild conditions are on tap
for the first half of the new work week. Primary question is if
and/or how much low cloudiness the increasing low level return flow
will push back into the area, and the impact of this potential
cloudiness on temps. Yesterday`s guidance was not at all bullish
on clouds, while today`s model output seems to be offering more
clues that there could be some lower clouds sneaking back north. At
this point I`ve just hinted at a few more clouds in some locations,
and maintained going forecast trends of daytime highs in the 70s
since there is no major change to the expected cloud cover at this
point.
Regardless of the amount of low cloudiness, the lack of significant
lower tropospheric moisture and upper dynamics certainly points to
tranquil and dry early November weather through Wednesday.
Medium range solutions are still forecasting deep upper trof to be
carved out over the western U.S. during the early part of the week,
with this system then kicking east and working its way into the
central CONUS in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. 12z guidance
suggests that there could be some elevated convection developing
across the area as early as Thursday as moisture advection and
isentropic ascent occurs with the intensifying southerly flow over
the Plains and Mississippi Valley. However, model consensus points
to a fairly potent lead shortwave pushing into the area on
Thursday night, and highest PoPs should be tied to this feature as
the UVV of the shortwave and the associated cold front combines
with the increasingly moist AMS. If some of the quicker solutions
verify the precipitation could end early on Friday, but with so
much of the upper trof lagging to the west have maintained a
mention of rain throughout the day, with dry weather returning
for next weekend.
Temperatures during the extended will also take a big dip from
their very mild levels of early in the week, with highs dropping
back into the 50s by next Saturday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2015
With surface ridge overhead will have clear skies and light and
variable winds through the forecast period. Atmosphere mixed out
pretty good for KCOU and KUIN, but could still see some fog
development over STL metro area late tonight. So kept MVFR vsby
mention in these tafs through daybreak.
Specifics for KSTL:
With surface ridge overhead will have clear skies and light and
variable winds through the forecast period. Could still see some
fog development over STL metro area late tonight. So kept MVFR
vsby mention in these tafs through daybreak on Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Crawford MO-Iron MO-
Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-
Fayette IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING WESTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT VIRGA MAY MOVE
INTO THE DVL REGION DURING MID MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP
MID TO HI CIGS AND NO MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR EVENING UPDATE. PRECIP MOVING ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE SD STATE LINE APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF CWA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR ARRIVAL IN THE 08Z TO 10Z
TIMEFRAME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND THE NORTH REMAINING CLEAR...LOWER CIGS OVER MANITOBA IS
STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER...AS EXPECTED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW.
00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT...AND GENERATING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE EXTENDED WESTWARD THE INHERITED LOW
POPS TO INCLUDE ZONES SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. ANY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IF IT DOES REACH THE SFC. RUC GUIDANCE SEEMS
TOO BULLISH FOR QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN EXPETED MID LEVEL CIGS. WILL
MONITOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL HOWEVER WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT VS CALM...AND BE ENOUGH FOR SIG FOG DEVELOPMENT.
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING FOGS INTO GRIDS ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT BUT OF
COURSE THERE WILL ALSO BE TEMP AND CLOUD QUESTIONS TOO. AS FOR NOW
ARE SEEING THE DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST MN.
THE W-SW WIND SWITCH SHOULD STILL BRING A LATE RUN AT HIGH TEMPS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD
LIGHTEN UP BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE WESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD
MAINLY KEEP SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE LOW CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
CURRENTLY THINK THESE MAY APPROACH AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THAT. A JET STREAK MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. MONDAY LOOKS
DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY MILD. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST FA MON NIGHT BUT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO TUE/WED BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING IT
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THEREFORE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
SYSTEM WILL FELT OVER THE NORTHWEST FA AND POSSIBLY THE FAR
NORTHERN VALLEY. EVEN THEN LOOKING AT THE STEADIER RAIN STAYING
FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING UP THRU THE FA IT
WILL SET UP A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHS VARIATIONS TUE/WED OF 20 DEGREES OR MORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH
BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND UNDERNEATH A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE
OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO A PART OF THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...THEN 500 MB FLOW FLATTENS THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY AFFECT LAKE OF THE WOODS SATURDAY SO KEPT LOW POPS GIVEN
BY MODEL BLEND FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING WESTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT VIRGA MAY MOVE
INTO THE DVL REGION DURING MID MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP
MID TO HI CIGS AND NO MENTION OF PRECIP.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1138 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Fog will be the big issue with IFR to LIFR conditions possible at
all area TAF sites until mid-morning Monday. Conditions improve Monday
afternoon. However, fog could affect the area again Monday night into
Tuesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued /
DISCUSSION...
Dense fog appears imminent where skies are clear and even at KMLC
where low clouds have remained, visibilities are dropping quickly.
Have issued a dense fog advisory for all but parts of far
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas until 10 am Monday.
Low clouds from far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas
may prevent widespread dense fog from forming there, but this
will need to be monitored as the night goes on. Made a few minor
adjustments to overnight lows tonight as well.
Both the HRRR and the new 00Z NAM suggest fog will persist well
into Monday morning, and perhaps until closer to midday from
about the Interstate 44 corridor to the northwest. This may impact
high temperatures Monday, but still expect a strong rally in the
afternoon when the sun comes out so will leave high temperatures
Monday as is for now.
Update on the way.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for OKZ054>074.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND LIFR/MVFR
CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z MONDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS CONDS TRANSITION
TO VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
UPDATE...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR TODAY/S SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT SKIES TO ALSO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW DEPARTS. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK BUT ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL... CLEARING SKIES... AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE
SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY.
UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD TRENDS
HOLDING ONTO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO KEEP UP WITH THOSE TRENDS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TIMING OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD
FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN OVERALL WET PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH SLOWER BUT
ENOUGH FOR SOME DIFFERENCES. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS NEXT SUNDAY.
IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TALK IMPACTS BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...HOPEFULLY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS YET AGAIN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
DETERMINE THESE DETAILS AND IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST.
39
MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND DID ADJUST THEM SOME WITH THE UPDATE.
WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH THIS TREND TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW HELPING TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST A BIT UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER
OFFSHORE WINDS/DECREASED SEAS. SELY WINDS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE MON...THE PERSISTING THRU THE REST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 76 58 78 61 / 20 10 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 59 78 62 / 30 10 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 67 74 69 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1131 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON AREA RADARS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW REPORTS OF THESE LIGHT
RETURNS REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN MN.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI.
THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A BLANKET OF
MID-CLOUDS IS INCOMING HOWEVER...AND WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD
LATER TODAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT STEEP...BUT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LIGHT QPF
DEPICTED IN THE MESOMODELS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH. BEST TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BETWEEN 03-
09Z. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
PLENTY OF LOW VSBYS PROJECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY CHUGGING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE NORTH THOUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE
SUNSHINE WILL BRING UP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH AND
UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A MILD DRY PERIOD TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE EACH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COULD BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH CLOSE TO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT THIS IS NOVEMBER.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THE LATER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THE LATER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERT ON AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER TROUGH FRAGMENTS INTO SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE A 120 KT UPPER JET PARALLELS THE FRONT. LFQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL WORK WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE ARE TOWARD FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS A MORE WEST WITH
THE FRONT AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE SLIDING OVER THE
FRONT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY WITH SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES...OTHERWISE A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
GETTING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER HEIGHTS AGAIN
BUILD FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER FOR POSSIBLE RETURN TO
MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015
FAIRLY QUIET WX EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA...RESULTING IN MIDDLE CLDS STREAMING ACRS
THE REGION. DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH CLD BASES...INCRG RETURNS ON RADAR
AND SFC OBS SUGGEST SPRINKLES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHC MAY NOT OCCUR ACRS THE N UNTIL EARLY
TOMORROW...SO CARRY IN THE RHI TAF AT THAT TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
339 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA COULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE NORTH EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THOUGH...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
IS TRAILING BY A FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...TODAY LOOKS LIKE A WET
ONE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IS SLOWLY SLIDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. 12Z ANALYSIS HAS IT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. IT WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW LEVELS TO DROP FROM 9 KFT TO AROUND 6
KFT...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING 5 KFT SNOW LEVELS BY DAYS END.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO
POP/QPF. POPS WERE RAISED ALMOST ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING OVERALL WITH
QPF...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED QPF
VALUES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER MEMBERS OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE HRRR AND SREF. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SOME
CONVECTIVE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. THAT BEING
SAID...PROGGED INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT LIMITED...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED BY THE POTENTIAL BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL THIS TO US WILL PUSH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR SOME CONTINUAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAVE OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE A WHOLE LOT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX SLIDES OUT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN THE
VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS FROM 18Z MON THRU 06Z TUES. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES AND ACROSS THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-02 88:1949 53:1957 56:2012 34:1946
KFAT 11-03 88:1949 56:1935 55:1941 33:1994
KFAT 11-04 86:1931 55:1925 60:1941 30:1973
KBFL 11-02 89:1949 60:1947 58:1992 31:1935
KBFL 11-03 95:1921 58:1994 56:1968 33:1922
KBFL 11-04 89:1931 55:1996 59:1970 29:1935
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ097.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE CAZ096.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MEADOWS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...MEADOWS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
500 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Satursday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible in fog thru about 1430z, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected again for today. The most concentrated
area of low vsbys due to fog will be along and southeast of a
DEC to CMI line this morning with any lingering fog dissipating
quickly by 15z. High pressure will bring the forecast area quiet
conditions thru early this evening and then we will have to
monitor the threat for a bit more widespread fog development aftr
05z Tuesday. Surface winds will be southerly at around 10 kts
today and then back more into a southeast flow at 5 kts or less
tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
An area of dense fog continues to move north towards Garnett.
Because widespread visibilities are reported to be a quarter of a
mile in southeast KS, have issued a short fog advisory for
Anderson and Coffey Counties. There is a small chance the fog may
linger beyond 9 am as the RAP forecast soundings are slow to mix
out the boundary layer. However think visibilities would begin to
improve and no longer be down around a quarter of a mile. Will
monitor trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a cut off low still over the ARKLATEX
region while the mean westerlies remain to the north along the
Canadian boarder. An upper level trough was over the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, relative high pressure had shifted east
across the OH river valley with a general area of low pressure from
the southern high plains through the northern plains.
The weather is expected to be benign today and tonight with no
obvious forcing upstream and the models showing no forcing to impact
the area. Deep layer moisture is also expected to be lacking.
Therefore the forecast expects mostly sunny skies today. While
models are not quite as warm at 925MB as temps were yesterday, I
don`t see any airmass change from yesterday. With this in mind have
highs in the upper 70s to near 80 once again. Overnight, models
continue with southerly low level winds and show moisture trapped
under the nocturnal inversion advecting into eastern KS. Both the
NAM and GFS increase the boundary layer moisture with forecast
soundings suggesting there could be some stratus advecting into the
forecast area. Because of this have trended the sky cover towards
partly cloudy for now, but that may not be enough as the stratus
over eastern OK this morning could be up here tomorrow morning. With
the warm air advection and potential increase in clouds, have also
bumped up lows into the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Areas of stratus will gradually lift by early afternoon Tuesday as
the sfc temperatures quickly mix out to near 900 mb in the
afternoon. Pressure gradient through the column becomes very tight
through the region as the southwest trough deepens over the Four
Corners Region. Sfc winds were increased Tuesday and Wednesday
at 20to 25 mph sustained with gusts near 35 mph in the afternoon.
The gradient barely wanes during the overnight hours through
Thursday as the sfc low strengthens towards eastern CO. The moisture
advection in the CWA should help to offset the drier air mixing down
to the sfc as high temperatures rise once again to the mid and upper
70s. In terms of fire weather, threat remains marginal at this point
but will continue to monitor dewpoints especially over north central
KS where fuels are quickly drying.
Latest changes with the approaching trough were the delay in the
timing of the trough axis coming into the region in addition to the
frontal boundary placement. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
approach areas north of Interstate 70 closer to sunrise Thursday as
a leading vort max ejects northeastward over Nebraska. It appears a
secondary embedded vorticity lobe further south lifts precip into
east central areas during the day on Thursday before the cold front
develops additional activity near 00Z. Main uncertainty lies with
how strong the initial wave will be and therefore the amount of
rainfall coverage. By late afternoon, models are becoming more
similar in the position of the cold front oriented southwest to
northeast from Council Grove, to Manhattan and Hiawatha. Strong
speed shear is expected near the boundary in upwards of 50 kts
through 6 KM. Instability is minimal and resides primarily in the
500-700 mb layer. Elevated thunderstorms are likely along and ahead
of the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening,
especially over east central and far northeast Kansas. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. Behind the boundary,
lingering light rain showers are possible. High pressure quickly
builds over the region by Friday with dry and cooler air settling in
for the weekend. Highs are generally in the upper 50s with overnight
lows in the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR conditions are expected through the day today with dry air in
place. Main concern is tonight with models advecting moisture into
eastern KS beneath the nocturnal inversion. Most guidance is
pointing towards fog or stratus impacting the terminals with the
SREF indicating about a 70 percent chance for VSBY below a mile.
Confidence in forecasting VLIFR 24 hours out is low, but have
inserted MVFR VSBY as a first step and later shifts can adjust
conditions down if models continue to signal the restrictions.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
653 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE W
STATES...AND A RESULTANT RIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SWING OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LINES UP FROM ALBERTA
THROUGH NV AND S CA. LOOKING NEAR THE SFC WE WILL HAVE A BROAD
TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
/ONLY CLOUDS AND MAINLY N CLOSER TO DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE 500MB
RIDGE/. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 900MB WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THOUGH...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF INCREASED DEW POINTS JUMPING INTO
THE 50S.
SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E. THIS WILL BE AS NEARING SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ACROSS MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. EVEN ON WEDNESDAY...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD STAY W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR N AND
STRENGTHENING S FLOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO JUMP TO 11-15C AND SFC
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S /OR 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL/.
LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS E MN AND POSSIBLY THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO BY 12Z THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM E
MN TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT. YES THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
DRIER FOR THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING FROM THE S
PLAINS THROUGH IA CONSOLIDATES ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIP EXITS OVER
THE FAR W...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN. 850MB TEMPS
ONLY GET DOWN TO -1 TO NEAR -3C BY 12Z FRIDAY ON N-NNW WINDS. THE
COLDEST AIR OF -4 TO -5C SLOWLY EXPANDS ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SFC LOW EXITS
INTO S QUEBEC AND THE BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH IS ABOVE 800MB...AND
ABOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE COOL W-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C SATURDAY
CHANGING TO MORE OF A WAA FLOW SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
SOME LO CLDS AND FOG THAT FORMED AT SAW WITH AN UPSLOPE S WIND AND
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT FOLLOWED EARLY MRNG CLRG WL DISSIPATE
THIS MRNG WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL
OF MID CLD MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF ANY ISOLD -SHRA IMPACT THE SITES...DRY LLVL AIR
WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD
LINGERS OVER THE AREA TNGT...MORE RADIATION FOG WL BE POSSIBLE TNGT
WITH LGT LLVL WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
827 AM MST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE FIRST FOCUSED ON SKY
COVERAGE. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING A DISTINCT CLEARING BETWEEN HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. ACCORDING TO THE HRRR THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER A FEW MILES AND
THEN BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT. IN ADDITION TO THIS PUT SOME SLIGHT
VARIATION ONTO THE WIND FIELDS WITH THE LATEST MESOSCALE WIND
DATA. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
ISOLATED TS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THE COLD FRONT
TODAY WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY...DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW WITH GENERATE
BRISK WEST WINDS OF 15 KT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE BASE REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS TROUGH PICKED UP
PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BRINGS IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN CONTRAST TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. A VERY DISTINCT STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES. THE EJECTED
MOISTURE FLOWING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL DRIFT INTO MAINLY THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF THERE
WILL BE ANY FROZEN MIX WITH THE MAINLY RAIN.
TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TENDS TO CONFINE ITSELF TO
CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH DRY SLOTTING DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
OF NEMONT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL TEND TO KEEP THE 850MB 0C
ISOTHERM TO THE NORTH...LIMITING FROZEN PRECIPITATION. QPF RAIN
AMOUNTS REMAIN FAIRLY WET.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...QPF BEGINS TO FOCUS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND CANADA. THERE ARE MODEL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
THAT WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE GFS & EC ARE WARMER
THAN THE NAM. THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
PRECIPITATION LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. HOWEVER SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LESS INTENSE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO
FORGO HEADLINES FOR NOW BASED ON LIMITED HAZARDS. SCT
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM. PETROLEUM
COUNTY MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. LACK OF MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIMIT THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRING A DRY FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER MIXING ON SUNDAY.
NEXT MONDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY. FEW TO SCT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME. CIGS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TONIGHT WITH RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS AT KSDY AND KGDV BY
06Z TONIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND THEN
EAST BY THIS EVENING. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
913 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
DENSE FOG APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING. RAMSEY COUNTY NO LONGER HAS ANY FOG SO CANCELLED THAT
COUNTY FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHER STATIONS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA HAVE CLIMBED UP TO A HALF MILE...BUT WILL WAIT A WHILE LONGER
TO SEE IF MORE STATIONS DO THE SAME BEFORE CANCELLING THE REST OF
THE ADVISORY. SEEING SOME SUN NOW AROUND KDVL AND FROM GWINNER TO
FARGO TO BEMIDJI. OTHER AREAS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SEE MORE SUN
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS LIFR CIG/VSBY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AM.
DVL WAS IFR HOWEVER CIGS LIFTING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN.
GFK/TVF AND BJI ON SOUTHERN EDGE. SO FAR ONLY BJI HAS GONE IFR AND
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOWER STUFF OUT OF GFK. WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ007-008-
016-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ004>008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS UPDATE PERIOD WAS DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES. VSBY IMPROVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES AS THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. FARTHER EAST VSBY LOW ENOUGH AND
SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA WITH NARROW
BAND OF RADAR RETURNS ALTHOUGH DOUBT ANY OF THE RETURNS WILL
RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS LIFR CIG/VSBY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AM.
DVL WAS IFR HOWEVER CIGS LIFTING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN.
GFK/TVF AND BJI ON SOUTHERN EDGE. SO FAR ONLY BJI HAS GONE IFR AND
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOWER STUFF OUT OF GFK. WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ007-008-
015-016-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ004>008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
935 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES AT 1130Z. HRRR SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND
14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. SATL
TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE INDICATE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVR PA...SUPPORTING
LIGHT WINDS AND A ZERO PCT CHC OF RAIN. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
FLOOD THE AREA WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIR MASS TODAY. ENS MEAN
925TEMPS BTWN 10C-12C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL FLOW SHOULD VEER FROM SW TO WNW TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...THUS SHIFTING THE STREAM OF CIRRUS EAST OF
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND BENEATH SFC HIGH PRES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG A
POSSIBILITY TOWARD DAWN. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST ECMOS SUPPORT
MIN TEMPS FROM THE U30S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L40S ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL EXPECTED
TUES BENEATH BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE. MDL 925 TEMPS RISING TO
NEAR 15C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S. RECORD
HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD IN THE 75-80F RANGE APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS +1-2SD
500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
ARND 70F.
STILL WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
ASSOC WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE MID ATL COAST AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z EC/GFS.
GEFS/ECENS BOTH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG
AROUND KLNS AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRONT OF THE ALLEGHENIES NEAR
KJST WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY 15Z. CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD /EMANATING
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS/ WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
733 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES AT 1130Z. HRRR SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND
14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. SATL
TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE INDICATE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVR PA...SUPPORTING
LIGHT WINDS AND A ZERO PCT CHC OF RAIN. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
FLOOD THE AREA WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIR MASS TODAY. ENS MEAN
925TEMPS BTWN 10C-12C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL FLOW SHOULD VEER FROM SW TO WNW TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...THUS SHIFTING THE STREAM OF CIRRUS EAST OF
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND BENEATH SFC HIGH PRES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG A
POSSIBILITY TOWARD DAWN. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST ECMOS SUPPORT
MIN TEMPS FROM THE U30S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L40S ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL EXPECTED
TUES BENEATH BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE. MDL 925 TEMPS RISING TO
NEAR 15C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S. RECORD
HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD IN THE 75-80F RANGE APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS +1-2SD
500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
ARND 70F.
STILL WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
ASSOC WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE MID ATL COAST AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z EC/GFS.
GEFS/ECENS BOTH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG
AROUND KLNS AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRONT OF THE ALLEGHENIES NEAR
KJST WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD /EMANATING
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS/ WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
650 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES AT 1130Z. HRRR SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND
14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. SATL
TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE INDICATE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
SFC HIGH AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVR PA...SUPPORTING
LIGHT WINDS AND A ZERO PCT CHC OF RAIN. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
FLOOD THE AREA WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIR MASS TODAY. ENS MEAN
925TEMPS BTWN 10C-12C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL FLOW SHOULD VEER FROM SW TO WNW TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...THUS SHIFTING THE STREAM OF CIRRUS EAST OF
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND BENEATH SFC HIGH PRES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG A
POSSIBILITY TOWARD DAWN. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST ECMOS SUPPORT
MIN TEMPS FROM THE U30S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L40S ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL EXPECTED
TUES BENEATH BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE. MDL 925 TEMPS RISING TO
NEAR 15C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S. RECORD
HIGHS FOR NOV 3RD IN THE 75-80F RANGE APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS +1-2SD
500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
ARND 70F.
STILL WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
ASSOC WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE MID ATL COAST AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z EC/GFS.
GEFS/ECENS BOTH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MORNING
VALLEY FOG. CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD /EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE OVR THE S APPALACHIANS/ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
High pressure ridge sliding off to the southeast this afternoon, but
flow across the state is mainly out of the south/southwest. The 12z
ILX sounding was very dry over a steep llvl inversion. Dense fog
dominated the southern portions of the state, and was slow to clear
under the stratus deck that slowly edged into the region from the
Ohio River Valley with the more southerly flow and advection of
moisture from the south. Bigger question with the forecast has been
how much of the dry air aloft would mix down and erode the dewpoints
and the crossover temps this afternoon. Some of the models have been
very generous with the mixing and sparse with the cloud cover
development tonight, like the GFS and the NAM. However, the HRRR is
being more aggressive with the inversion this afternoon and not
mixing out as much. With the persistence of the higher dewpoints,
the development of fog tonight is quicker, and the stratus is
further north and lower. Have gone with more of a blend for
tonight`s forecast, leaning towards the HRRR that is picking up
on the lingering llvl moisture, particularly in the southwest.
Forecast may need to be adjusted in the shorter term as the night
progresses with observation of the crossover drop.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main focus the next couple days will be with the cloud trends,
followed by the cold front passage early Friday and its associated
precipitation.
Have used a combination of the GFS 925 mb humidity plot, as well as
the SREF ceiling probabilities, to try and lay out the expected
track of the stratus deck from tonight. Current thinking is for it
to make it as far north as Havana and Lincoln before starting to
break up late Tuesday morning. However, forecast soundings show low
level inversion around 950 mb sticking around into Wednesday, as
moisture advection increases with winds turning more southerly into
mid week. Would not be surprised to see a repeat performance Tuesday
night and Wednesday, so have increased the sky grids to go partly
to mostly cloudy instead of mostly clear.
Latest model guidance continues to spread showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, and have increased rain chances to
categorical levels around 80%. Have maintained the thunder chance as
dynamics ahead of this feature will be favorable, although severe
probabilities will remain low with the nighttime frontal passage.
The ECMWF is more progressive and has the front to the Indiana
border by sunrise Friday, while the GFS and Canadian models lag by
about 6 hours due to a more pronounced upper wave. Trended more
toward the slower solution, but all guidance has conditions over our
area drying out by afternoon. Precipitable water values progged to
be around 1.4 inches which is over 2 standard deviations above
normal for early November, which should help yield about 3/4 to 1
inch of rain in most areas.
Temperatures in the 70s will prevail the next few days, but
significant bust potential exists if the stratus refuses to break
up, similar to what`s going on in southern Illinois this afternoon.
Have trended highs down a few degrees over the central and south on
Tuesday to accommodate the cloud cover. Following the front late this
week, a broad upper trough will be crossing the Midwest through
Saturday, with much cooler conditions and highs in the 50s Friday
and Saturday. Upper flow quickly turns back to the southwest though,
so a slow warming trend is expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Southwesterly flow a little light for today, and lighter this
evening. SKC today as the ridge slips to the southeast. SKC
tonight as well, with some clouds edging closer to the southern
terminals. Clearing skies will aid in rapid drop in temps tonight,
and vis drops/fog will likely be a main issue int he forecast
overnight. NAM MOS a little more intense with the
limitations...and the GFS very lax. Best idea on the extent of the
visibility drop will be seeing how much the atmosphere gets a
chance to mix out the very dry column into what is left of the
morning inversion. For now, keeping the forecast to IFR vis for
the pre dawn hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1144 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Early morning fog slowly receded to mainly along and south of
Interstate 70 by mid morning. Visibilities were slowest to improve
underneath a persistent stratus deck slowly progressing northward
from the Ohio River Valley. Some patchy fog remains under the
cloud cover, although more patchy than earlier. Same mechanism
that has slowed the burning off of the fog this morning is
inhibiting the diurnal temp swing and will likely impact the high
temp forecast. Have adjusted the fog mention...and dropped the
highs in the same location. Updates out momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Southwesterly flow a little light for today, and lighter this
evening. SKC today as the ridge slips to the southeast. SKC
tonight as well, with some clouds edging closer to the southern
terminals. Clearing skies will aid in rapid drop in temps tonight,
and vis drops/fog will likely be a main issue int he forecast
overnight. NAM MOS a little more intense with the
limitations...and the GFS very lax. Best idea on the extent of the
visibility drop will be seeing how much the atmosphere gets a
chance to mix out the very dry column into what is left of the
morning inversion. For now, keeping the forecast to IFR vis for
the pre dawn hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1055 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Early morning fog slowly receded to mainly along and south of
Interstate 70 by mid morning. Visibilities were slowest to improve
underneath a persistent stratus deck slowly progressing northward
from the Ohio River Valley. Some patchy fog remains under the
cloud cover, although more patchy than earlier. Same mechanism
that has slowed the burning off of the fog this morning is
inhibiting the diurnal temp swing and will likely impact the high
temp forecast. Have adjusted the fog mention...and dropped the
highs in the same location. Updates out momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Main forecast concern will be with the extent of the fog threat thru
early this morning and whether any expansion in the advisory may be
needed. Will continue with the current Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
for southeast Illinois and keep an eye on the potential northward
expansion of the lower visibilities. The past few runs of the RAP
and HRRR expand the lower vsbys north/northwest to the I-74 corridor
whereas the Hi-res NAM holds the lower vsbys along and south of I-72
with more of a patchy look to the fog along the river valleys
further north by 11z, which looks more reasonable. Once again most
of the soundings indicate a very shallow nature to the moisture
early this morning so any fog should quickly dissipate between 8 and
9 am.
Another nice day in store for the forecast area as surface high
pressure holds to our east. Not a great deal of change in 925-850 mb
temps today compared with yesterday, however, soundings not showing
quite as deep a mixing layer as we had yesterday afternoon with a
bit stronger low level inversion in place today as well. With full
sunshine expected again today, will continue to go at or above guid
values this afternoon with most areas in the 70 to 74 degree range,
which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A taste of Indian Summer expected across central and southeast IL
through Thursday, as generally dry and unseasonably mild
conditions prevail as high pressure controls our weather at the
surface and aloft. Will feel more like late September than early
November next 4 days. A southern stream short wave will weaken as
it lifts across the Southeast States through tonight, keeping its
showers well southeast of IL, along with most of its clouds
southeast of central IL as well. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
40s with highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging
expands into the eastern States Tue and Wed while surface high
pressure over mid Atlantic states continues mild southerly flow
over IL with highs in the low to mid 70s. This appears to be a
few degrees shy of record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F.
Models are showing some increase in low level moisture/clouds
later Tue night in southeast IL and across eastern IL on Wed and
this may keep this part of IL a few degrees cooler.
00Z forecast models show strong upper level trof digging over the
Western States during mid week, with upper level ridge over the
Eastern States and IL in a sw upper level flow. Surface low
pressure deepens as it ejects northeast from central KS Thu into
northern lower MI by sunrise Friday, and pulls a strong cold
front east across IL overnight Thu night into Friday morning. Have
slight chances of showers by Thu afternoon over western/sw CWA and
will likely bring showers Thu night and then diminishing from west
to east during Friday. Have isolated thunderstorms Thu night as
MUCAPES peak from 200-400 J/KG overnight Thu night into early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of a half to three quarter inch
with locally up to 1 inch possible with this system which will tap
into gulf of Mexico moisture.
Dry and cooler weather returns Friday night and this weekend as high
pressure settles into the Midwest Saturday and over IL/IN by dawn
Sunday. Highs Fri range from upper 50s nw of IL river to upper 60s
southeast of I-70. Then highs in the 50s this weekend with coldest
night Sat night with lows mostly in the mid 30s and frost possible.
Extended models continue dry weather next Monday with seasonable
temperatures from Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible in fog thru about 1430z, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected again for today. The most concentrated
area of low vsbys due to fog will be along and southeast of a
DEC to CMI line this morning with any lingering fog dissipating
quickly by 15z. High pressure will bring the forecast area quiet
conditions thru early this evening and then we will have to
monitor the threat for a bit more widespread fog development aftr
05z Tuesday. Surface winds will be southerly at around 10 kts
today and then back more into a southeast flow at 5 kts or less
tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1121 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
An area of dense fog continues to move north towards Garnett.
Because widespread visibilities are reported to be a quarter of a
mile in southeast KS, have issued a short fog advisory for
Anderson and Coffey Counties. There is a small chance the fog may
linger beyond 9 am as the RAP forecast soundings are slow to mix
out the boundary layer. However think visibilities would begin to
improve and no longer be down around a quarter of a mile. Will
monitor trends.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows a cut off low still over the ARKLATEX
region while the mean westerlies remain to the north along the
Canadian boarder. An upper level trough was over the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, relative high pressure had shifted east
across the OH river valley with a general area of low pressure from
the southern high plains through the northern plains.
The weather is expected to be benign today and tonight with no
obvious forcing upstream and the models showing no forcing to impact
the area. Deep layer moisture is also expected to be lacking.
Therefore the forecast expects mostly sunny skies today. While
models are not quite as warm at 925MB as temps were yesterday, I
don`t see any airmass change from yesterday. With this in mind have
highs in the upper 70s to near 80 once again. Overnight, models
continue with southerly low level winds and show moisture trapped
under the nocturnal inversion advecting into eastern KS. Both the
NAM and GFS increase the boundary layer moisture with forecast
soundings suggesting there could be some stratus advecting into the
forecast area. Because of this have trended the sky cover towards
partly cloudy for now, but that may not be enough as the stratus
over eastern OK this morning could be up here tomorrow morning. With
the warm air advection and potential increase in clouds, have also
bumped up lows into the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Areas of stratus will gradually lift by early afternoon Tuesday as
the sfc temperatures quickly mix out to near 900 mb in the
afternoon. Pressure gradient through the column becomes very tight
through the region as the southwest trough deepens over the Four
Corners Region. Sfc winds were increased Tuesday and Wednesday
at 20to 25 mph sustained with gusts near 35 mph in the afternoon.
The gradient barely wanes during the overnight hours through
Thursday as the sfc low strengthens towards eastern CO. The moisture
advection in the CWA should help to offset the drier air mixing down
to the sfc as high temperatures rise once again to the mid and upper
70s. In terms of fire weather, threat remains marginal at this point
but will continue to monitor dewpoints especially over north central
KS where fuels are quickly drying.
Latest changes with the approaching trough were the delay in the
timing of the trough axis coming into the region in addition to the
frontal boundary placement. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
approach areas north of Interstate 70 closer to sunrise Thursday as
a leading vort max ejects northeastward over Nebraska. It appears a
secondary embedded vorticity lobe further south lifts precip into
east central areas during the day on Thursday before the cold front
develops additional activity near 00Z. Main uncertainty lies with
how strong the initial wave will be and therefore the amount of
rainfall coverage. By late afternoon, models are becoming more
similar in the position of the cold front oriented southwest to
northeast from Council Grove, to Manhattan and Hiawatha. Strong
speed shear is expected near the boundary in upwards of 50 kts
through 6 KM. Instability is minimal and resides primarily in the
500-700 mb layer. Elevated thunderstorms are likely along and ahead
of the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening,
especially over east central and far northeast Kansas. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. Behind the boundary,
lingering light rain showers are possible. High pressure quickly
builds over the region by Friday with dry and cooler air settling in
for the weekend. Highs are generally in the upper 50s with overnight
lows in the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
Sites will stay VFR until late evening, before conditions begin to
deteriorate. With low level moisture moving in, conditions are
expected to degrade between 06Z-07Z. Low stratus may be combined
with dense fog, especially at TOP/FOE. Currently have IFR
cigs/visbys for TOP/FOE, although periods of visibilities under 1SM
are possible. Fog and stratus are currently forecast to linger into
the late morning or early afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND
RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE GENERATED SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND KIWD TO
KMQT AND THEN TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIR BLO CLOUD BASE
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...VERY FEW IF ANY LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN MEASURABLE PCPN. STRONGEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN
OUT OVER THE WATER ENE OF KMQT. TO THE W...ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE IS
GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS W OF KDLH...BUT OBS HAVE NOT REVEALED
ANY PCPN. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVERALL ARE TENDING TO THIN OUT UPSTREAM TO THE W
AND SW. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SUN TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN
TO AOA 60F. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT...TEMPS ARE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
TONIGHT...TROF CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
FORCE INCREASING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL CAUSE SHORTWAVE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE. MEANWHILE...SUBTLE WAVE
GENERATING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITIES W OF KDLH SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS E. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN TONIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING -
SHRA/SPRINKLES RACE E OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WARM AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT N OF HERE TONIGHT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
S INTO THE UPPER LAKES...PROBABLY TO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/KEWEENAW BY
MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OUT OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS ON TUE WILL
BECOME E TO SE. LEANED TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND ON MAX TEMPS SINCE E
TO SE WIND IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR WARMTH. STILL...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AIDED BY THE MILD START TO THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW
VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT
NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD
BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD
KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP
TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN
ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER
WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS
THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING HRS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN ALONG WITH ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES. IF ANY PCPN
OCCURS...DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD DECK WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE. GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND SINCE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...NO MENTION OF PCPN WAS
INCLUDED IN FCST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS LINGERS
TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED IN FCST LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...
MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. ON TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE WRN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-
30KT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO 10-20KT TUE NIGHT/WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW PRES
LIFTS NE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTN/NIGHT. INFLUX OF COLDER AIR
COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY FRI
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT FRI...STRONGEST OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE...15-
25KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO SAT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
309 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ITS
FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER (COULD BE PUSHING RECORD HIGH LOW
VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT). ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THEIR MOVEMENT
NORTH TONIGHT. IF THEY MOVE IN...THE CURRENT TEMP/SKY FORECAST WOULD
BE A MAJOR BUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS (AND LIKELY DRIZZLE/FOG) WOULD
KEEP TEMPS LOCKED IN THE 50S.
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWALTER VALUES FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP
TO 100-200 J/KG SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE SHOWERS. DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
TOMORROW/S FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS THREE FEATURES ARE TIED TO A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. FIRST...MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK WHICH LARGELY DETERMINES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA (MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THAT TOO). IN
ADDITION...THAT EJECTING SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND TAPER THEM OFF HEADING WESTWARD. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN U.P. COULD SNEAK IN SOME SNOW FLAKES ON
FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING NORTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED IN NATURE UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOUD LAYER
WINDS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LONGER FETCHES ACROSS
THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING HRS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN ALONG WITH ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES. IF ANY PCPN
OCCURS...DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD DECK WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE. GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND SINCE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...NO MENTION OF PCPN WAS
INCLUDED IN FCST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS LINGERS
TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED IN FCST LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1207 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NRN CONUS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS MOVING E THRU NRN WI. DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB...THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOST APPARENT ON THE 300K
SFC /ABOUT H7/...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF CLD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY E AND SCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG. DRYING TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAA IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA...BUT MORE HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
PLAINS ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING MN. THERE IS A RATHER NARROW BAND
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER NE SDAKOTA INTO WRN MN UNDER AXIS OF MID LVL
FGEN AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM FCST FOR THAT AREA. THERE IS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN MONTANA AS WELL. THIS ONE IS STRONG ENUF
TO TRIGGER A FEW LTG STRIKES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.
TODAY...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
OVER THE E HALF EARLY THIS MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT TO THE E BY LATE
MRNG...SO EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END W-E AND AT NEWBERRY BY
MID/LATE MRNG. NAM THEN SHOWS BAND OF FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN AND SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW
OVER NE SDAKOTA TRACKING ACRS NRN UPR MI THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/GENERAL DRYING
DOMINATING AT THE SAME TIME...THE NAM AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN STREAKING ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA LATE
THIS MRNG THRU THE AFTN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS BAND WL TRACK...BUT TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM FOCUS ON THE
NW HALF GIVEN THE GOOD CORRELATION BTWN ITS FCST FGEN AND THE OBSVD
PCPN. BROADBRUSHED THE POPS A BIT THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL AND 03Z SREF ALSO SHOW SUPPORT FOR
THIS SCENARIO. THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MSTR AND OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS TO WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PCPN.
DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD COVER TODAY...EXPECT H85 TEMPS
ARND 8C TO SUPPORT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TNGT...MODELS FCST UPR TROF TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE FAR WRN
CONUS TNGT...WITH 00Z-12Z TUE H5 HGT RISES UP TO ABOUT 60M OVER THE
UPR LKS UNDER BLDG DOWNSTREAM RDG. SO ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHRTWV
NOW MOVING FM MONTANA INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE TOWARD UPR
MI...THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN...BRINGING JUST
SOME MID/HI CLDS TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WL BE LGT...THESE
CLOUDS AND LINGERING WARM AIRMASS WL HOLD MIN TEMPS ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE W
STATES...AND A RESULTANT RIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SWING OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LINES UP FROM ALBERTA
THROUGH NV AND S CA. LOOKING NEAR THE SFC WE WILL HAVE A BROAD
TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
/ONLY CLOUDS AND MAINLY N CLOSER TO DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE 500MB
RIDGE/. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 900MB WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THOUGH...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF INCREASED DEW POINTS JUMPING INTO
THE 50S.
SW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E. THIS WILL BE AS NEARING SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ACROSS MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. EVEN ON WEDNESDAY...ANY PRECIP
SHOULD STAY W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR N AND
STRENGTHENING S FLOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO JUMP TO 11-15C AND SFC
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S /OR 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL/.
LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS E MN AND POSSIBLY THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO BY 12Z THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM E
MN TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT. YES THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE
DRIER FOR THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY LOW STRETCHING FROM THE S
PLAINS THROUGH IA CONSOLIDATES ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIP EXITS OVER
THE FAR W...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN. 850MB TEMPS
ONLY GET DOWN TO -1 TO NEAR -3C BY 12Z FRIDAY ON N-NNW WINDS. THE
COLDEST AIR OF -4 TO -5C SLOWLY EXPANDS ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SFC LOW EXITS
INTO S QUEBEC AND THE BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH IS ABOVE 800MB...AND
ABOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE COOL W-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C SATURDAY
CHANGING TO MORE OF A WAA FLOW SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING HRS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTN ALONG WITH ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES. IF ANY PCPN
OCCURS...DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD DECK WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE. GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND SINCE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...NO MENTION OF PCPN WAS
INCLUDED IN FCST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS LINGERS
TONIGHT...RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE MVFR VIS WAS INCLUDED IN FCST LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015
AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH S HUDSON BAY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY THIS EVENING...WHILE
SHIFTING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ACROSS WYOMING. EXPECT INCREASING
NE WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO N ONTARIO
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES E AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN AS
IT EXITS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IN SUMMARY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL AMPLIFY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THE NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CLEARING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT
WASH OUT BY TUESDAY DAYTIME. A SATURATED LOW LEVEL LAYER THAT
DEVELOPED FROM POOLING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHICH BROUGHT FOG TO THE KOOCHICHING COUNTY AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAP13 LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODELED CLOUD
COVER...IS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE RAP13 AND HRRR WERE
HANDLING CLOUD COVER MUCH BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...LEANED ON THE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THE NAM12/GFS20/RAP13 ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WHICH RESULTED IN DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION...DESPITE THE INSULATING EFFECTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD BRING...BECAUSE OF THE VERY LOW WIND SPEEDS AND
RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES...AND SO TRENDED
A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR TUESDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING
FOR MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THE SUN AND GENERALLY WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARM WEATHER BECAUSE OF INCREASING
COOL EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE TWIN
PORTS...UNFORTUNATELY...WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP WED/THU AND FRI/FRI NIGHT
ALONG WITH PTYPE.
THE CHANGE FROM THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 2C
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
0C THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WED-FRI EVENT...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...TEMPS
WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH 50S POSSIBLE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS
AT INL. THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 54 47 59 / 0 0 10 20
INL 35 50 41 54 / 20 0 20 20
BRD 42 62 49 67 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 40 64 50 64 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 41 59 48 61 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART
EARLIER THINKING FROM PRIOR FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING SLOW
CLEARING IS WORKING OUT AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRESSURE
RISES AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO HELP MIX OUT THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING LOW
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE. ANY CLEARING TONIGHT STILL LOOKS TO
SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL THUS KEEP THE CURRENT MENTION OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONDITIONAL THREAT IF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK IS MORE PREVALENT.
AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE STILL NOT
DEFINITIVE SIGNS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT COMPLETE CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN. IN ANY
CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
UPDATE FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...HAVE EDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP GIVEN
THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE BUILDING SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING H925 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND ~21 DEG C WHICH
SHOULD EASILY CORRELATE WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SUCH VALUES WOULD APPROACH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. /EC/
LONG TERM...A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
CWA. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND ACROSS
OUR CWA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOWER 60 DEW POINTS WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY EVENING. PWATS
WILL INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF AREAWIDE BY NOON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE ABOVE TWO INCHES OVER OUR WEST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FRIDAY. THE WEAK
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SECOND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HELP SEND A >1030MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS DETERIORIATING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CATEGORIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL...AND AREAS
THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT FOR A SHORT TIME COULD QUICKLY SEE IFR/LIFR
VSBYS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MIXING OUT OF
STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE A SLOW/GRADUAL PROCESS AS WE GO THROUGH
MID/LATE TUES MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS COULD BECOME PREVALENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 59 76 58 80 / 7 2 5 3
MERIDIAN 60 75 55 79 / 9 7 6 7
VICKSBURG 58 76 56 81 / 6 5 4 4
HATTIESBURG 60 77 58 82 / 6 3 7 5
NATCHEZ 57 75 61 81 / 5 4 5 3
GREENVILLE 57 77 58 80 / 4 2 4 4
GREENWOOD 57 77 58 80 / 7 2 4 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
106 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING NICELY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS FOR
TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS LINGER THE SHOWERS TOWARDS DICKEY AND
LAMOURE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW THEM ENDING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE IS SHOWN BY
THE HRRR TO LINGER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH IN THE NORTH
BASED ON THAT EXPECTATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING...SO UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON AREAS. EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THEY COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THIS...WILL LINGER POPS A BIT LONGER IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
GIVEN SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS OF 12 UTC IN THE JAMESTOWN AND
CARRINGTON AREAS...ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 14 UTC
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV AND LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCALED BACK ON POPS ACROSS MY NORTH
WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY VOID OF ECHOS WITH MOST ACTIVITY
SOUTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SKY TRENDING CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF MY
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WEST TO
EAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A BAD FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND WINDS 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
LEAD S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND BRING A GOOD
SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP TYPE REMAINING LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES HAVE
SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN TRACK...WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES FOR
THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THUS...THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS DECREASING...WITH NOW ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE
WINTER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GREATLY DECREASED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF
WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROPAGATE INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY. DID NOT BRING MVFR INTO KISN
OR KMOT UNTIL THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO KDIK LATER TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT KBIS AND KJMS TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE DENSE FOG LIFTED ON SCHEDULE BUT AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN THIS AREA
AREA RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO WILL LOWER HIGHS A
GOOD 5 DEGREES THERE. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT MORE SUN. ALSO SEEING WEST WINDS JUST
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHICH ARE PUSHING TEMPS EVEN
WARMER. ALREADY 54F IN KDVL...59F IN VALLEY CITY AND 57F AT
GWINNER. EVEN HAVE 64F AT KFFM. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WELL...WITH STRONG NW TO SE TEMP DIFFERENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST TRENDS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS SO WILL USE BLEND.
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA AND RELATED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY IN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. UPSTREAM
RADAR RETURNS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND HOWEVER CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE BLO 700 MB. FOR
THIS AM HESITANT TO FOLLOW HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR WEST
THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS MILD AND HOW FAR WE GET ABOVE AVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS SO STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS WESTERN TROUGH NUDGES
EAST CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH TROUGH NOT
MOVING VERY MUCH MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROUGH. AS A RESULT RELATED PCPN ALSO
TRENDING FARTHER WEST. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NW FA AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL
COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN RAIN. WILL SEE A RESPECTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE FAR NW TO
POSSIBLE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO MIDWEEK.
INITIALLY PCPN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW HOWEVER AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE FA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH COOLING COLUMN COULD SEE A
-RASN MIX OVER THE NW. THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FROM NW-SE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET ALBEIT CLOUDY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30 CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS APPEAR TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS 500MB FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MID AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
IFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE PUSHED OUT AND ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL SHIFT TO E-NE AND INCREASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1131 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS LINGER THE SHOWERS TOWARDS DICKEY AND
LAMOURE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW THEM ENDING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE IS SHOWN BY
THE HRRR TO LINGER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH IN THE NORTH
BASED ON THAT EXPECTATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING...SO UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON AREAS. EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THEY COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THIS...WILL LINGER POPS A BIT LONGER IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
GIVEN SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS OF 12 UTC IN THE JAMESTOWN AND
CARRINGTON AREAS...ADDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 14 UTC
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV AND LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS RESULTS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCALED BACK ON POPS ACROSS MY NORTH
WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY VOID OF ECHOS WITH MOST ACTIVITY
SOUTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SKY TRENDING CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF MY
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WEST TO
EAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A BAD FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND WINDS 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
LEAD S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND BRING A GOOD
SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP TYPE REMAINING LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
OVERALL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES HAVE
SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN TRACK...WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES FOR
THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THUS...THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS DECREASING...WITH NOW ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE
WINTER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GREATLY DECREASED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF
WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROPAGATE INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE SHOULD STRUGGLE
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY. DID NOT BRING MVFR INTO KISN
OR KMOT UNTIL THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO KDIK LATER TONIGHT...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT KBIS AND KJMS TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL BE TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED
BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY/FRIDAY. 02.12Z GLOBAL MODEL
SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED APPROACH
FOR THIS FORECAST.
SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO IS SOUTH TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO LOWER 70S WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WIND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S REGION-WIDE. ALTHOUGH RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
FORECAST...IT MAY BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT LA CROSSE. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH GIVEN ROUGHLY 20
KTS TO MIX IN THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
ALTHOUGH WIND/THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +14 TO +16
CELSIUS...THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF SHOW A LOW STRATUS DECK EXPANDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IF CLOUDS MATERIALIZE...TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THIS POTENTIAL SPREAD IS EVIDENT IN THE
02.09Z SREF PLUMES WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
70S. MODELS NORMALLY DO NOT HANDLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SEE IF CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED. FOR NOW...INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE
PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RAINFALL ONSET APPEARS A BIT SLOWER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...NOW ENTERING SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT P-TYPE
AS RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT MUCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 100 TO 300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
THEIR FALL ON THURSDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL FEEL A BIT RAW
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH NEAR NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS DO LOOK BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT SO
LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KRST LATE IN
THE MORNING AND AT KLSE RIGHT AROUND 18Z TUESDAY OR SHORTLY AFTER.
THE 02.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AT BOTH
TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT WIND
LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP SO NOT SURE IF THIS WILL MANIFEST AS
FOG...A LOW STATUS LAYER OR NOTHING. THE 02.15Z RAP DOES NOT SHOW
THIS SATURATED LAYER FORMING AND NEITHER DOES THE 02.06Z GFS. FOR
NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
AT THE MOMENT...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALL JUST SHY OF
CURRENT RECORDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE COULD APPROACH CURRENT RECORDS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BELOW IS A LOOK AT RECORDS AS THEY CURRENTLY STAND:
LOCATION | 11/3 RECORD | 11/4 RECORD
---------------------------------------------
LA CROSSE | 75 (2008) | 75 (2008)
ROCHESTER | 75 (2008) | 74 (2008)
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......LAWRENCE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BENEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A WEAK
FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS GENERATING HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 63 TO 69
RANGE...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE PASS OVERHEAD ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE JET. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 700MB IS
SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...AND THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME VIRGA BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
FOCUSING ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE POSSIBILITIY OF DENSE FOG LATE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE...AND WILL BRING THE PATCHY FOG MENTION FARTHER
SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAVE THE
WORDING AS PATCHY...BUT ADDED THE CONCERN TO THE HWO. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING OR
SO...BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE PUSHING THE CLOUDS NORTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON HOW TEMPS RESPONDED TODAY...WONDER IF HIGHS ARE
UNDER-DONE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND
GO WITH MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND
RIDGE IN THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP IN NORTHERN CANADA.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND S/SW FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. LOWS IN SOME SPOTS MIGHT NOT DROP
OUT OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
AS THE WARMER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE AREA ON THE S/SW WINDS...
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS BRINGS
SOME CLOUD CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST (STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT)...AS THE NAM/GFS SHOW ENOUGH SATURATION BELOW 1500FT TO
DEVELOP AND KEEP A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA (WITH MAYBE EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE?). WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHERE A LOW
STRATUS DECK CAN RUIN A NICE SUNNY DAY...BUT THE NAM LIKE TO OVER
DUE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL LEAN ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WHICH COMBINED WITH 900-925MB TEMPS OF 13-15C...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WI (WITH SOME RECORDS JEOPARDY)...AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH. IF
HOWEVER...THE NAM/GFS COME TRUE...THOSE HIGHS WILL BE HARD TO
REACH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
WITH SUCH A MILD START...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
(ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS DECK IS NOT THERE) AS WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SW...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH...SO THAT WILL CUT A LITTLE INTO HOW WARM IT
FEELS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (WEST) OR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A
SLUG OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH...TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
WHERE ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN...BUT RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING RATHER FAST...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...SO NOT MUCH SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH. THE SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN WI WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK FRONT. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT
TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF LOWER VSBYS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WI. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH IMPACT AT AREA TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
IFR/MVFR IN THE TAFS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY 1/4-
1/2SM VSBYS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. ANY FOG
WILL BE LIFTING BY MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GOOD FLYING WEATHER.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
OK...WHO FORGOT TO LET THE WEATHER KNOW THE CALENDAR HAS FLIPPED AND
IT IS NOVEMBER NOW? JUST AN AWESOME WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING ACROSS
THE CONUS RIGHT NOW IF YOU`RE A FAN OF LATE FALL WARMTH...WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
HEADING TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO MIDWEEK. BEFORE THAT ALL
TAKES SHAPE...BROAD CONFLUENT/ZONAL FLOW RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 AT THE MOMENT...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES
WITHIN SAID FLOW...ALSO HELPING TO AT TIMES ENHANCED LOCALIZED AXES
OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES (SEE WHAT
HAPPENED LAST EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS).
THAT GENERAL SETUP WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF
DEEPER LAYER FGEN FORCING PROGGED TO LAY OUT JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE
AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT FORCING
SHOULD GO INTO CONTINUED BOUTS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS...AND PER
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS...FEEL COMPELLED TO RAISE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SAID CLOUDS AND
LIMITED MIXING NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY AID IN
HOLDING DOWN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY THOSE
SPOTS SOUTH OF I-90) WILL FIND THEMSELVES BREAKING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH TEMPS VERY LIKELY TO SOAR THROUGH THE 70-75 DEGREE
MARK...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS AS WARM AS 17-18C!
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUNTING THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA AND PUSHING ALL OF US SQUARELY IN THE WARM
(AND CLOUD FREE) SECTOR. AS SUCH...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE TUESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY ON AN AREA-WIDE BASIS WITH TEMPS AGAIN WARMING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S JUST ABOUT ALL SPOTS. DOUBTFUL
WE WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS GIVEN WET SOILS...BUT IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR VALUES). OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY STILL
HAS A LOT OF POTENTIAL TO BE JUST AS WARM...BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOWER STRATUS BLOSSOMING NORTHWARD WITHIN AN AXIS OF
STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN BACK TOWARD THE AREA...AND REALLY OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN GENERAL. WITH THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF THIS IDEA
SIGNIFICANTLY THE PAST 12 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT IF CLOUDS DON`T
MATERIALIZE...WE HAVE A SHOT AT SHOOTING WELL INTO THE LOWER 70S
ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY AREAS. ENJOY IT WHILE IT`S HERE!
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
THE END IS NEAR! WELL FOR WARM WEATHER THAT IS. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...ALL GOOD THINGS MUST END SOMETIME...AND THE END IS IN
SIGHT HEADING INTO LATE WEEK AS THAT WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST A FASTER PROGRESSION WITH A LEAD
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK TO SAID UPPER ENERGY. THAT SETUP...SHOULD IT OCCUR...SUGGESTS
WE MAY GET IN ON ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARD LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE QUITE THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM...MUCH
COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING IS
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SETUP OF MUCH COOLER AIR
SPILLING IN ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER...WITH
PERHAPS A ROUND OR TWO OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF
TIME TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THAT OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE ABOUT JUST HOW DEEP THAT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT SO
LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KRST LATE IN
THE MORNING AND AT KLSE RIGHT AROUND 18Z TUESDAY OR SHORTLY AFTER.
THE 02.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AT BOTH
TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT WIND
LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP SO NOT SURE IF THIS WILL MANIFEST AS
FOG...A LOW STATUS LAYER OR NOTHING. THE 02.15Z RAP DOES NOT SHOW
THIS SATURATED LAYER FORMING AND NEITHER DOES THE 02.06Z GFS. FOR
NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THIS FORECAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015
AT THE MOMENT...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALL JUST SHY OF
CURRENT RECORDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...IT`S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE COULD APPROACH CURRENT RECORDS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BELOW IS A LOOK AT RECORDS AS THEY CURRENTLY STAND:
LOCATION | 11/2 RECORD | 11/3 RECORD | 11/4 RECORD
----------------------------------------------------------------
LA CROSSE | 75 (1938) | 75 (2008) | 75 (2008)
ROCHESTER | 74 (1953) | 75 (2008) | 74 (2008)
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......LAWRENCE