Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/01/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 930 AM PDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS AND INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

GUSTY WINDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...THOUGH MOSTLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
CRESTS...INCLUDING SANTIAGO PEAK AT 71 MPH AROUND 7 AM AND PLEASANTS
PEAK AT 64 MPH AROUND 6 AM. GUSTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS THE
NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE...WERE MOSTLY UNDER 50 MPH. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN...BUT HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SOME
MODERATE WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 2 PM...THEN WEAKENING. A MINOR BUMP UP IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...BUT MOST WIND GUSTS WILL BE BELOW ABOUT 35 MPH.

AN EAST PAC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING AND WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER SO-CAL SATURDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING TO SLIDE SSE AND FLATTENING. A GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY...WITH SOME HIGHS OVER 90 IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE AND THE LOWER DESERTS...AND LOCALLY IN INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE ABSENT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON LOCAL
WRF...THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE STRATUS/FOG JUST OFF THE
COAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO IDAHO
BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
TROUGH PLACEMENT...THEY ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE WAVES AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE...HENCE THOSE
MOVING THROUGH SO-CAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDER LIGHTER WITH THE
PRECIP AS MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...MOSTLY BELOW 800 MB IN
SO-CAL. BEST OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES ARE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE BEST THERE.
OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL GET ONLY ONE-QUARTER INCH OR LESS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE TWO
STRONGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH MSLP GRADIENTS AND
HEIGHT GRADIENTS BEING FAIRLY STRONG...WITH ABOUT 9 MB ONSHORE FLOW
BASED ON THE NAM FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT
TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...WITH SOME
DAYTIME TEMPS 10 TO LOCALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. BIG BEAR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
40 TUE/WED...WITH QUITE A LOT OF 60S AT THE COAST. SOME WARMING
COULD HAPPEN LATE NEXT WEEK AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...THOUGH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE CONSENSUS AFTER ABOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
301530Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE STRONG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KONT AND KPSP WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING STILL EXPECTED. LLWS WILL DECREASE BUT
RETURN LATE TONIGHT AT WEAKER LEVELS.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW THE 20 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
KT PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM ORANGE COUNTY TO SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND IN THE OUTER WATERS. FOR DETAILS CHECK THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...LAXMWWSGX. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
AND AN INCREASE IN SWELL MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG THE RIDGES OF THE SAN
GABRIEL...SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW THE CAJON
PASS. ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 11
AM...AND OVER 40 MPH THROUGH AROUND 2 PM.

HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND VERY
LOCALLY AROUND 9 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
LIKELY BE TOO SHORT IN DURATION TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. WEAKER
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. A SLOW COOLING
TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
     60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...TARDY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 906 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

Rain is quickly moving east and based on radar and observations,
rain is only in extreme eastern and southeast IL but will be gone
in next couple of hours. Small break in the clouds underneath the
higher stuff will effect the area temporarily but clouds should
remain over western parts of the area til just after midnight,
then over the eastern half of the area through early morning.
Believe light fog is also possible with where areas see some
clearing, but winds will remain just below 10mph so fog should
remain light. Will be making some adjustments to pops/wx in the
forecast and be sending out an update shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

Main shortwave was moving across southeast Iowa and northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Convection over the lower Mississippi
Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting
in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last
few hours. Back edge of the rain shield now generally along the
Illinois River, and the short-range models have been fairly
consistent with drying out most areas west of I-55 by sunset and the
eastern CWA by 10 pm. Refinements in the hourly precipitation grids
have taken this into account, and have gone with a dry forecast
after midnight.

Some concern remains with the fog potential. Latest RAP and HRRR
continues to advertise a moist layer of about 1,000 feet off the
surface underneath an inversion, and shows a rather expansive area
of dense fog mainly along and west of the Illinois River, where
rainfall from the current system has been in the 1/2 to 1 inch
range. The RAP humidity plots seem to be running a bit fast with the
clearing, as the AWIPS timing tool has the clearing line coming into
the western CWA toward 11 pm or so. If the winds stay up a bit, this
could keep the fog from getting out of hand, but have added a
mention of patchy fog for now west of I-55 after midnight. Evening
shift can make adjustments if it appears the clearing is coming in
faster than expected, which would increase the odds of fog
formation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become
progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a
zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. The faster
departure of that low to the east will help usher in much drier air
aloft. Skies should become sunny across our entire forecast area on
Sunday, but some patchy morning fog could delay that for areas
northwest of the Illinois river. There is potential for locally
dense fog around sunrise, but winds could prevent that if they
remain up late tonight. Have included patchy fog early Sunday
morning for now, to trend that into the forecast.

Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will
not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer
air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid
to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties
toward Jacksonville.

A southern stream upper level low progressing from eastern Texas
toward Virginia on Monday will push a shield of precip close to
southern IL, but we expect to remain dry as the feature departs to
the East Coast Monday night. The overall result will be upper level
ridging developing across IL by late Monday afternoon, with
rising heights and warmer temps Monday. Highs should climb into
the lower 70s in most areas.

The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Tues and Wed
under a persistent SW flow aloft and southerly surface winds.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s both days.

The long wave trough in the western states will shift east over the
Rockies on Wed night, then eject a surface low toward Illinois on
Thursday. Rain chances will increase from west to east during the
day, with likely chances of rain Thursday night into Friday, as low
pressure and a cold front pass across Illinois. Showers could linger
Friday night behind the front, but most areas should return to dry
conditions for Saturday. Much cooler air will arrive behind that
system, with temperatures returning to near normal. Temps on Friday
will be steady or falling in the afternoon as NW winds crank up.
Despite increasing sunshine on Saturday, highs should remain in the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions will continue this evening with rain
quickly pushing east next couple of hours. However, about an hour
of very light rain/drizzle will be seen after the rain ends. Even
though vis will improve once drizzle ends, cigs will remain below
3kft for til around midnight. Based on satellite trends, looks
like skies will scatter out after midnight...clearing from west to
east...at CMI last around 10z. With the scattering out of the
clouds/clearing, believe some light fog will develop, mainly at
PIA/SPI/BMI. DEC and CMI will be scattering out too late but will
have TEMPO for light fog for both sites. Westerly winds around
7kts will also keep fog from becoming too bad. Models also
indicate that sometime later in the morning hours skies should
clear. Winds through the period will be west to southwest. Wind
speeds will be primarily below 10kts, except BMI/DEC/CMI for first
several hours this evening.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 634 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

Main shortwave was moving across southeast Iowa and northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Convection over the lower Mississippi
Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting
in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last
few hours. Back edge of the rain shield now generally along the
Illinois River, and the short-range models have been fairly
consistent with drying out most areas west of I-55 by sunset and the
eastern CWA by 10 pm. Refinements in the hourly precipitation grids
have taken this into account, and have gone with a dry forecast
after midnight.

Some concern remains with the fog potential. Latest RAP and HRRR
continues to advertise a moist layer of about 1,000 feet off the
surface underneath an inversion, and shows a rather expansive area
of dense fog mainly along and west of the Illinois River, where
rainfall from the current system has been in the 1/2 to 1 inch
range. The RAP humidity plots seem to be running a bit fast with the
clearing, as the AWIPS timing tool has the clearing line coming into
the western CWA toward 11 pm or so. If the winds stay up a bit, this
could keep the fog from getting out of hand, but have added a
mention of patchy fog for now west of I-55 after midnight. Evening
shift can make adjustments if it appears the clearing is coming in
faster than expected, which would increase the odds of fog
formation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become
progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a
zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. The faster
departure of that low to the east will help usher in much drier air
aloft. Skies should become sunny across our entire forecast area on
Sunday, but some patchy morning fog could delay that for areas
northwest of the Illinois river. There is potential for locally
dense fog around sunrise, but winds could prevent that if they
remain up late tonight. Have included patchy fog early Sunday
morning for now, to trend that into the forecast.

Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will
not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer
air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid
to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties
toward Jacksonville.

A southern stream upper level low progressing from eastern Texas
toward Virginia on Monday will push a shield of precip close to
southern IL, but we expect to remain dry as the feature departs to
the East Coast Monday night. The overall result will be upper level
ridging developing across IL by late Monday afternoon, with
rising heights and warmer temps Monday. Highs should climb into
the lower 70s in most areas.

The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Tues and Wed
under a persistent SW flow aloft and southerly surface winds.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s both days.

The long wave trough in the western states will shift east over the
Rockies on Wed night, then eject a surface low toward Illinois on
Thursday. Rain chances will increase from west to east during the
day, with likely chances of rain Thursday night into Friday, as low
pressure and a cold front pass across Illinois. Showers could linger
Friday night behind the front, but most areas should return to dry
conditions for Saturday. Much cooler air will arrive behind that
system, with temperatures returning to near normal. Temps on Friday
will be steady or falling in the afternoon as NW winds crank up.
Despite increasing sunshine on Saturday, highs should remain in the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions will continue this evening with rain
quickly pushing east next couple of hours. However, about an hour
of very light rain/drizzle will be seen after the rain ends. Even
though vis will improve once drizzle ends, cigs will remain below
3kft for til around midnight. Based on satellite trends, looks
like skies will scatter out after midnight...clearing from west to
east...at CMI last around 10z. With the scattering out of the
clouds/clearing, believe some light fog will develop, mainly at
PIA/SPI/BMI. DEC and CMI will be scattering out too late but will
have TEMPO for light fog for both sites. Westerly winds around
7kts will also keep fog from becoming too bad. Models also
indicate that sometime later in the morning hours skies should
clear. Winds through the period will be west to southwest. Wind
speeds will be primarily below 10kts, except BMI/DEC/CMI for first
several hours this evening.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Early morning shallow fog across the northern CWA has burned off.
Satellite and surface obs showing a more concentrated area of
stratus and dense fog lingering over northern Illinois, basically
going around the north and northeast edges of our forecast area,
and boundary layer winds have been pushing this more to the
east/northeast recently. So, main focus for us will be with
increase in clouds from the southwest as cirrus streams in from
Missouri. Temperatures off to a cool start across especially the
northwest CWA where the fog was earlier, but still think most
areas should get well into the 50s today. Recent zone/grid updates
were mainly to adjust the sky trends and temperatures over the
next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending
from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley.  Despite presence
of ridge axis, clouds persist across part of the area due to
low-level moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion.  Latest
IR satellite imagery shows overcast conditions along/southeast of
a Danville to Jacksonville line, with mostly clear skies further
north.  Mean 925-850mb flow is from the north, so these clouds
are slowly pushing southward and should exit the KILX CWA over the
next 2-4 hours.  Will have to keep an eye on additional low
clouds currently across northern Iowa: however, these have begun
to show signs of shifting in a more easterly direction, so think
they will remain just north of the area early this morning.  End
result should be a mostly sunny start to the day everywhere.  As
the high moves off to the east, the next system will quickly begin
approaching from the west by late in the day.  Forecast soundings
show a pronounced increase in 500-300mb layer RH, so think a thick
shield of high clouds will blanket the sky by late afternoon.
Given a good deal of sunshine for much of the day, high
temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday mainly
in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over the
Northern Rockies will track eastward over the next 24-36 hours,
tapping into copious Gulf of Mexico moisture and producing
widespread rain across central Illinois. NAM shows strong 50kt
850mb jet developing from east Texas into Missouri tonight, then
shifting eastward into Illinois on Saturday.  This feature will
pull unseasonably high amounts of moisture northward ahead of the
approaching upper wave, with NAM precipitable water values
reaching the 99th percentile for this time of year in the 1.25 to
1.50 inch range.  Given deep-layer moisture and adequate upper
dynamics, will carry categorical PoPs along/west of I-55 after
midnight with chance PoPs further east to the Indian border.
Categorical PoPs will spread across the entire area on Saturday
before the wave pushes off to the east and rain ends from west to
east by Saturday night.  Total rainfall with this system will
generally be around a half an inch...with isolated higher amounts
likely.  Due to the widespread rain, Halloween will be a rather
chilly day with highs only in the lower to middle 50s.

Once the northern-stream wave passes to the east, the weather will
improve markedly by early next week.  The deep upper low currently
over the Desert Southwest will get ejected eastward by the Saturday
wave, but will remain well south of Illinois as it tracks mainly
eastward across the Deep South/Tennessee River Valley Sunday into
Monday.  Any precip associated with this feature will remain well
south of the area.

Main weather story next week will be the pronounced warming trend. A
highly amplified upper pattern is expected to develop across the
CONUS, with a deep trough digging into the Rockies/Desert Southwest
and a strong ridge building downstream across the remainder of the
country.  This pattern shift has been well-advertised by the models
for days, with the 00z Oct 30 model suite remaining in excellent
agreement.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show anomalously high upper
heights across Illinois with 850mb temps reaching the 14-16C range
Monday through Wednesday.  This will result in high temperatures
climbing into the lower to middle 70s.  After that, the main
challenge will be timing the gradual break down of the ridge and the
arrival of a baroclinic zone ahead of the western CONUS upper
trough.  The GFS had previously shown WAA precip developing across
the area as early as Wednesday, but this was rejected in favor of
the slower ECMWF.  Latest run of the GFS has predictably backed
off on the Wednesday precip and is now more in line with the
ECMWF, focusing best rain chances by the end of the week.  As a
result, will continue the dry forecast through Wednesday, with
chance PoPs arriving by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Challenging forecast this morning as a band of stratus and low
vsbys was located just north of PIA and BMI with a gradual shift
to the south noted on the latest satellite loop. RAP sounding
data and HRRR time height cross sections suggest a brief period
of IFR cigs will be possible at both sites in the 12z-15z time
frame before boundary layer winds turn more southerly which should
shift the lower clouds and vsbys back to the north just after 15z.
Once that occurs, VFR conditions will prevail over the forecast
area into the afternoon hours with an increase in mid and high
level clouds expected ahead of the next rain maker slated to push
into our area after 03z tonight with cigs expected to drop to MVFR
in the 08z-11z time frame. Surface winds will remain light and
variable this morning and then turn into a southerly direction by
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kt range.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 554 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending
from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley.  Despite presence
of ridge axis, clouds persist across part of the area due to
low-level moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion.  Latest
IR satellite imagery shows overcast conditions along/southeast of
a Danville to Jacksonville line, with mostly clear skies further
north.  Mean 925-850mb flow is from the north, so these clouds
are slowly pushing southward and should exit the KILX CWA over the
next 2-4 hours.  Will have to keep an eye on additional low
clouds currently across northern Iowa: however, these have begun
to show signs of shifting in a more easterly direction, so think
they will remain just north of the area early this morning.  End
result should be a mostly sunny start to the day everywhere.  As
the high moves off to the east, the next system will quickly begin
approaching from the west by late in the day.  Forecast soundings
show a pronounced increase in 500-300mb layer RH, so think a thick
shield of high clouds will blanket the sky by late afternoon.
Given a good deal of sunshine for much of the day, high
temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday mainly
in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over the
Northern Rockies will track eastward over the next 24-36 hours,
tapping into copious Gulf of Mexico moisture and producing
widespread rain across central Illinois. NAM shows strong 50kt
850mb jet developing from east Texas into Missouri tonight, then
shifting eastward into Illinois on Saturday.  This feature will
pull unseasonably high amounts of moisture northward ahead of the
approaching upper wave, with NAM precipitable water values
reaching the 99th percentile for this time of year in the 1.25 to
1.50 inch range.  Given deep-layer moisture and adequate upper
dynamics, will carry categorical PoPs along/west of I-55 after
midnight with chance PoPs further east to the Indian border.
Categorical PoPs will spread across the entire area on Saturday
before the wave pushes off to the east and rain ends from west to
east by Saturday night.  Total rainfall with this system will
generally be around a half an inch...with isolated higher amounts
likely.  Due to the widespread rain, Halloween will be a rather
chilly day with highs only in the lower to middle 50s.

Once the northern-stream wave passes to the east, the weather will
improve markedly by early next week.  The deep upper low currently
over the Desert Southwest will get ejected eastward by the Saturday
wave, but will remain well south of Illinois as it tracks mainly
eastward across the Deep South/Tennessee River Valley Sunday into
Monday.  Any precip associated with this feature will remain well
south of the area.

Main weather story next week will be the pronounced warming trend. A
highly amplified upper pattern is expected to develop across the
CONUS, with a deep trough digging into the Rockies/Desert Southwest
and a strong ridge building downstream across the remainder of the
country.  This pattern shift has been well-advertised by the models
for days, with the 00z Oct 30 model suite remaining in excellent
agreement.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show anomalously high upper
heights across Illinois with 850mb temps reaching the 14-16C range
Monday through Wednesday.  This will result in high temperatures
climbing into the lower to middle 70s.  After that, the main
challenge will be timing the gradual break down of the ridge and the
arrival of a baroclinic zone ahead of the western CONUS upper
trough.  The GFS had previously shown WAA precip developing across
the area as early as Wednesday, but this was rejected in favor of
the slower ECMWF.  Latest run of the GFS has predictably backed
off on the Wednesday precip and is now more in line with the
ECMWF, focusing best rain chances by the end of the week.  As a
result, will continue the dry forecast through Wednesday, with
chance PoPs arriving by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Challenging forecast this morning as a band of stratus and low
vsbys was located just north of PIA and BMI with a gradual shift
to the south noted on the latest satellite loop. RAP sounding
data and HRRR time height cross sections suggest a brief period
of IFR cigs will be possible at both sites in the 12z-15z time
frame before boundary layer winds turn more southerly which should
shift the lower clouds and vsbys back to the north just after 15z.
Once that occurs, VFR conditions will prevail over the forecast
area into the afternoon hours with an increase in mid and high
level clouds expected ahead of the next rain maker slated to push
into our area after 03z tonight with cigs expected to drop to MVFR
in the 08z-11z time frame. Surface winds will remain light and
variable this morning and then turn into a southerly direction by
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kt range.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

Overall forecast looks on track tonight. However, cloud trends
from satellite loop indicates something little different that what
is in the grids. Looks like clouds clearing from the north and the
west, so will be updating forecast just for cloud cover remainder
of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

Broad cyclonic flow continuing this afternoon around the low
departing eastern Ontario, as a surface trough rotates southeast
through the Great Lakes. Cloud shield has covered most of the
forecast area north of I-70, but last few frames of the visible
satellite loop suggest it may not reach much further. RAP humidity
plots do show a bit more progress though, and will keep skies partly
cloudy across the southeast CWA this evening. Over the remainder of
the forecast area, a clearing trend should start from the southwest
this evening, but have lingered the cloud cover over the northeast
CWA much of the night. Little change needed in low temperatures,
which should bottom out a couple degrees either side of 35.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

High pressure expected to build back into the Midwest tonight,
eventually eroding the clouds towards morning with lighter winds.
Ridge axis moves over the region tomorrow, with some variability to
the lighter winds and sunny, highs warmer than today into the upper
50s.  Deep upper low over the southern states moving out across the
country as another upper low and developing low pressure system
moves across the southern border of Canada...bringing rain for the
end of the week.  Starting in the west Friday evening and spreading
across the region for all day Saturday.  Halloween day expected to
be rather wet and gray...but should be coming to an end from west to
east later in the night.  At this point, the timing looks to show
some clearing nw of the Illinois River Valley around 6-7pm.  Expect
timing to become more finely tuned in the next few forecasts.

Beyond the weekend and into next week, the Midwest becomes largely
dominated by a high pressure ridge just to the east, keeping the
area dry for the most part, with a warming trend.  Southwesterly
flow aloft and 850 mb temps climbing to 15-16C by Tuesday, and highs
once again well above seasonal norms, in the upper 60s/lower 70s
through Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail overnight. Clearing moving into the
area from the north and should have sct clouds at PIA and BMI by
issuance. SPI/DEC/CMI will see sct clouds in next 1-2hrs. Low
level moisture in the area from the drizzle/rain today and
satellite trends indicate keeping scattered clouds at all sites
overnight and into the early morning hours. Believe things will
become clear during the day and afternoon. Then expecting a solid
mid cloud deck to begin arriving around 00z at all sites in
advance of the next weather system. Any pcpn associated with this
system will likely hold off til around 06z, so will not put it in
the TAFs at this time. Winds will be light overnight and then
become southerly for the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN US WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER ARIZONA.
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ALONG EASTERN
EXTENDING OF THIS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED PV
ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTS AREAS OF INCREASED FORCING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR...AS WELL AS KGLD RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA IN EASTERN
COLORADO (CHEYENNE COUNTY).

THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SHORT
RANGE HI RES GUIDANCE MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT DEPICTION/TIMING ON
RADAR AND WAS USED TO ADJUST FOR EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. BEST FORCING HIGHLIGHTED BY Q VECTORS AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AXIS STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX/HIGHER MIXING RATIOS. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT
EASTERN COLORADO WILL GET MUCH PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS AND MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL AND SUPPORT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PARTS OF NW KANSAS
(PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA). AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA...WITH ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING (WEST TO EAST) THIS
EVENING.

OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP/CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT LINGERING.
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN NW
KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE 40. I TRENDED
HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO LOW/MID 40S ACROSS OUR EAST TODAY WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH WARMEST DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE RETURN TO A STORMY/WET PATTERN
BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A NEW WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPING/DEEPENING.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE/DEVELOP THIS TROUGH. THE
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH IN KICKING OUT THIS SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE CUTOFF.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER. GEFS IS NOT CONCLUSIVE ON ANY FRONT.

CURRENT PATTERN WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION. WPC
MANUAL 500 MB PROGS ARE SIDING MORE WITH THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
SOLUTION. SO SAYING ALL THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA STAYS DRY IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. JET AXIS ALSO IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MORE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CRH INIT GAVE ME SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
PORTIONS OF MY WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
BLEND CONTINUES TO GIVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING AND STILL BEING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE
BETTER AND STRONGER LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND MORE THAN
LIKELY 12 TO 24 HOURS AFTER THIS. POPS GIVEN TO ME DEFINITELY FIT
THIS SCENARIO AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THEM.

WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT ANYWAY BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE COOLING WITH A FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE BLEND CAPTURES THIS NICELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIELD PERSISTS OVER HIGH PLAINS. HEAVIER
PRECIP CONFINED EAST OF COLORADO BORDER WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WEST OF THE BORDER. ANTICIPATE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES OUT AS SEEN AT KGLD OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES
AWAY BUT LOW STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. THIS
EVENING...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDES IN. AS THIS HAPPENS...WINDS
BECOME WEST AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW BRIEF FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AS LOW AS ONE MILE POSSIBLE. KGLD MOST LIKELY TO
OBSERVE FOG BUT KMCK MAY EXPERIENCE THIS AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS THE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR LOWER TD VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR CWA
AND COMBINE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TO PRODUCE LOWER RH
VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
ON TDS THIS FAR OUT...AND I COULD SEE MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND850 MB
AND TDS AROUND 20F. I DECIDED TO STAY IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RH 17-20%...BUT PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT
LOWERING TDS AS WE GET CLOSER/CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT NAM/GFS
BL WINDS/H85 WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO RFW CRITERIA BEING MET
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO
HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...DR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 535 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN US WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER ARIZONA.
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ALONG EASTERN
EXTENDING OF THIS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED PV
ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTS AREAS OF INCREASED FORCING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR...AS WELL AS KGLD RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA IN EASTERN
COLORADO (CHEYENNE COUNTY).

THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SHORT
RANGE HI RES GUIDANCE MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT DEPICTION/TIMING ON
RADAR AND WAS USED TO ADJUST FOR EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. BEST FORCING HIGHLIGHTED BY Q VECTORS AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AXIS STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX/HIGHER MIXING RATIOS. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT
EASTERN COLORADO WILL GET MUCH PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS AND MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL AND SUPPORT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PARTS OF NW KANSAS
(PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA). AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA...WITH ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING (WEST TO EAST) THIS
EVENING.

OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP/CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT LINGERING.
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN NW
KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE 40. I TRENDED
HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO LOW/MID 40S ACROSS OUR EAST TODAY WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH WARMEST DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE RETURN TO A STORMY/WET PATTERN
BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A NEW WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPING/DEEPENING.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE/DEVELOP THIS TROUGH. THE
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH IN KICKING OUT THIS SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE CUTOFF.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER. GEFS IS NOT CONCLUSIVE ON ANY FRONT.

CURRENT PATTERN WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION. WPC
MANUAL 500 MB PROGS ARE SIDING MORE WITH THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
SOLUTION. SO SAYING ALL THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA STAYS DRY IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. JET AXIS ALSO IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MORE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CRH INIT GAVE ME SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
PORTIONS OF MY WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
BLEND CONTINUES TO GIVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING AND STILL BEING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE
BETTER AND STRONGER LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND MORE THAN
LIKELY 12 TO 24 HOURS AFTER THIS. POPS GIVEN TO ME DEFINITELY FIT
THIS SCENARIO AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THEM.

WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT ANYWAY BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE COOLING WITH A FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE BLEND CAPTURES THIS NICELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY OBSERVED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS AND
RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY UPSTREAM ALL THE WAY TO TEXAS PANHANDLE
STREAMING NORTH. AS LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CIGS WITH
MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING EVEN AFTER RAIN COMES TO AN END. VIS IS LESS CERTAIN DUE
TO POTENTIAL MIXING WITH RAINFALL...HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR VIS
APPEARS LIKELY CONSIDERING MODERATE RAIN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS MET GUIDANCE AND
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW FOG/LOW CIG SIGNAL PERSISTING THROUGH
12Z. OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY BL FLOW BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ADVECTING DRIER AIR OVER BOTH TERMINALS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT IN THE NEGATIVE SOLUTIONS
AND INSTEAD FAVORED VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06-07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS THE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR LOWER TD VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR CWA
AND COMBINE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TO PRODUCE LOWER RH
VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
ON TDS THIS FAR OUT...AND I COULD SEE MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND850 MB
AND TDS AROUND 20F. I DECIDED TO STAY IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RH 17-20%...BUT PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT
LOWERING TDS AS WE GET CLOSER/CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT NAM/GFS
BL WINDS/H85 WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO RFW CRITERIA BEING MET
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO
HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN US WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER ARIZONA.
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ALONG EASTERN
EXTENDING OF THIS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED PV
ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTS AREAS OF INCREASED FORCING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR...AS WELL AS KGLD RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA IN EASTERN
COLORADO (CHEYENNE COUNTY).

THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SHORT
RANGE HI RES GUIDANCE MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT DEPICTION/TIMING ON
RADAR AND WAS USED TO ADJUST FOR EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. BEST FORCING HIGHLIGHTED BY Q VECTORS AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AXIS STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX/HIGHER MIXING RATIOS. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT
EASTERN COLORADO WILL GET MUCH PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS AND MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL AND SUPPORT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PARTS OF NW KANSAS
(PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA). AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA...WITH ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING (WEST TO EAST) THIS
EVENING.

OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP/CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT LINGERING.
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN NW
KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE 40. I TRENDED
HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO LOW/MID 40S ACROSS OUR EAST TODAY WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH WARMEST DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE RETURN TO A STORMY/WET PATTERN
BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A NEW WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPING/DEEPENING.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE/DEVELOP THIS TROUGH. THE
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH IN KICKING OUT THIS SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE CUTOFF.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER. GEFS IS NOT CONCLUSIVE ON ANY FRONT.

CURRENT PATTERN WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION. WPC
MANUAL 500 MB PROGS ARE SIDING MORE WITH THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
SOLUTION. SO SAYING ALL THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA STAYS DRY IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. JET AXIS ALSO IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MORE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CRH INIT GAVE ME SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
PORTIONS OF MY WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
BLEND CONTINUES TO GIVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING AND STILL BEING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE
BETTER AND STRONGER LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND MORE THAN
LIKELY 12 TO 24 HOURS AFTER THIS. POPS GIVEN TO ME DEFINITELY FIT
THIS SCENARIO AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THEM.

WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT ANYWAY BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE COOLING WITH A FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE BLEND CAPTURES THIS NICELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 12KTS. FROM 11Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TERMINAL WILL SEE MVFR CIGS. COULD BE SOME VLIFR
CIGS IN THE 16Z-22Z TIME FRAME WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 10KTS BUT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 13Z WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS. FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD THE TERMINAL SHOULD EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS WITH SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 5KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS THE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR LOWER TD VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR CWA
AND COMBINE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TO PRODUCE LOWER RH
VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
ON TDS THIS FAR OUT...AND I COULD SEE MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND850 MB
AND TDS AROUND 20F. I DECIDED TO STAY IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RH 17-20%...BUT PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT
LOWERING TDS AS WE GET CLOSER/CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT NAM/GFS
BL WINDS/H85 WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO RFW CRITERIA BEING MET
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO
HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 1005 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1022MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL PUSH EAST ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE
SOME QUICK MOVING RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...WHICH
LARGELY CORRELATE WITH MOISTURE AOA 700MB PER RNK/GSO 00Z/01
SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN RURAL LOCATIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AS A
WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND REACHES INTO
THE OH VALLEY...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN/LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TEND TO BECOME STEADY. LOWS GENLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS.

THE 18Z/31 GFS/NAM EACH INDICATE A DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 310K THETA
SURFACE...WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING MODEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. ADDITIONALLY 12Z/31 HIGH-RES ARW AND THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS W OF THE
BAY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LOW-END
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS AOB 0.10".
THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTN...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATE AFTN THOUGH...MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE
DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE INTO THE
CWA. THIS IS RESULTING FROM THE BEGINNING OF A NE TREK OF THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC
RANGE AFTER 3 PM OVER SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
SUN...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF I-95 TO AROUND 70 F ACRS
THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST 12Z/31 MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY AGREE ON A WET
SCENARIO FOR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-100% OVER SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT (MOST
OF THIS AFTER THE LATE EVENING HRS) AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE
GULF CST LIFTS ENE...AND 250MB JET RRQ FORCING INCREASES IN
EARNEST. AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEAR 2" OVER THE SOUTH. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 80% OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS MIN...60-70% ACRS THE
FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 2-3" OF TOTAL QPF IN NE NC AND FAR
SE VA...TO 0.50 TO 1" ACRS THE NORTH. STILL DO NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING GIVEN THIS IS A LONG TERM ~24
TO 36 HR EVENT. HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 50S W/NW...TO THE UPPER 60S
SE. GRADUAL DRYING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM FROM NW TO
SE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING FROM THE N ON
TUE...HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENRLY DRY
CONDS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG
THE MID ATLC/NE CST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK SFC WAVE OFF
THE NC CST AND THUS A LO CHANCE OF PCPN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS A DRY FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN MSTLY A
DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR SE AREAS. UPR-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THEREAFTER THRU AT
LEAST FRI...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LO/MID 70S
THUR AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRNT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ADDED LIGHT RAIN FOR SUNDAY MRNG BASED ON
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LATEST LAVMOS AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS WAS
ALREADY SUPPORTED BY NAM MOS. COULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST
TUESDAY WHEN PCPN DEVELOPED QUICKLY IN THE MRNG AND THEN TAPERED
OFF...AHEAD OF THE MAIN PCPN AREA. HAVE PCPN AT ALL BUT SBY AND
LASTING ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS. GENERALLY LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR
FOLLOWING THE EARLY PCPN. THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REACH RIC AROUND 21Z BASED ON FCST POPS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD PCPN ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS AND PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT OF THE GULF TO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE WEATHER IMPROVES ON TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR
BY AFTN. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST. THE HI WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AFTR
MIDNITE. 10-15 KT S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN...UNTIL A TROF
OF LO PRES CROSSES THE AREA SUN NGT. MEANWHILE...SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE SE STATES SUN NGT INTO MON...WITH WINDS OVER THE
WTRS BCMG NELY. AS THE LO SLIDES S OF THE FA ERLY IN THE WEEK...THIS
WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SCA CONDS OVER AT LEAST THE SRN BAY
AND OCEAN. FOR MON/TUE...EXPECT 10-20 KT WINDS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT
OVER THE SRN BAY...AND 15-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT OVER
CSTL WTRS. MARINE CONDS THEN IMPROVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 131 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN...AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO IRON COUNTY.
SPECKLES OF ECHOES ON RADAR ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD AND KCMX REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN AN HOUR OR SO AGO. THERE IS HINT OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH ON WV LOOP AND THAT LIFT ALONG WITH ALREADY MOIST LOW-LEVELS
AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DRIZZLE. DO NOT EXPECT DRIZZLE TO LAST MUCH INTO
THE MORNING AS LATEST RAP GUDIDANCE INDICATES SHORTWAVE LIFT WEAKENS
AFTER DAYBREAK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WHICH MINIMIZES UPSLOPE LIFT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A BRIEF BOUT OF EARLY WINTRY
WEATHER FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
IS POISED TO CROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -5C IS RESULTING IN ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND HARVEY AS OF 4 AM EDT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH DAYBREAK BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN AND WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHWEST IN LOWEST 3KFT...EXPECT ANY
LAKE EFFECT TO END BY MID MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF FALL IT IS NOW THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHEN A RIDGE DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUAL CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THAT COULD BE THE CASE TODAY...AT LEAST FOR
PORTIONS OF CWA. CURRENTLY THERE ARE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF MN AND INTO AT LEAST
NORTH HALF OF WI. LOW CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WHEN WORKING EAST
OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
TODAY...SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS PRESENT JUST ABOVE H85...BUT MINIMAL
WARMING ABOVE INVERSION SHOULD NOT ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH.
ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BTWN H9-H8
AND IT REALLY NEVER GOES AWAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SW FLOW THINK
AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ATTM /PARTS OF MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES INTO DELTA COUNTY/ COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
KEWEENAW INTO BARAGA COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING. BEST
CHANCE FOR CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL BE OVER SW UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS...COULD
SEE A 50 DEGREE READING.

ATTN TONIGHT TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN AND
MONTANA AS WELL AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR SW CONUS. AS
THESE TWO UPPER WAVES HEAD EAST AND SFC HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST...WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 290-300K SFCS /H85-H65/ SPREAD INTO WESTERN CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE OVER CNTRL CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE JUST A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN. MID-LEVEL DRYING
COULD END THE RAIN LATE AT IWD AND CMX. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OVER 1 INCH STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVERALL THE
LIFT IS WEAK TO MODERATE. BOTH FACTORS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIGHT WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED TERM FOCUSES ON POPS EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND RELATED TO A WAA REGIME AHEAD OF A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS AND APRCHG FM THE W. NEXT WEEK...
THE UPR FLOW WL CHANGE TO ONE THAT FEATURES A BLDG UPR RDG ACRS THE
E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W. THIS
PATTERN WL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT WED...WHEN UPR MI WL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW TRACKING FM THE PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA. HI TEMPS AOA 60 WL BE PSBL ON WED.

SAT...AXIS OF STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST
DEPICTED ON THE 295K SFC /ABOUT H75/ RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN ON FRI
NGT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE E AND GIVE WAY TO SOME DRYING/
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY E IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO
APRCH LATER IN THE DAY AND SLOW DOWN THE DRYING TREND AS THE UPR
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE RESULT WL BE A LONGER DURATION
OF RAIN AND LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA/GREATER HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WRN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY...THE LARGER SCALE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING MOIST AXIS WL LIMIT LINGERING POPS IN THAT AREA. CLDS AND
SHOWERS WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
HALF WHERE THICKER CLDS AND PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT.

SAT NGT...INCOMING SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING E ACRS THE UPR LKS AND
GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DNVA W-E LATER AT NGT. SINCE THE
LARGER AREA OF MSTR WL STILL BE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA WHEN THE
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA ARRIVES...WL CARRY THE HIER LIKELY
POPS IN THAT AREA DURING THE EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS OVERNGT AND
ADVECTS DRIER INTO THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. SO TRICK-OR-TREATERS MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME RAIN. OVER THE W HALF...POPS WL BE LIMITED
BY MORE DRY AIR. EXPECT THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA
OVER THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTW TRACK/DEEPER MSTR. PCPN CHCS WL END W-
E LATER AT NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND THE DNVA BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS NO LOWER THAN 0-2C...THERE WL BE NO
LK EFFECT PCPN. GOING MIN TEMPS NOT FAR FM 40 APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
THE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE W DUE TO EARLIER CLRG.

SUN/SUN NGT...THE DAY ON SUN WL AT LEAST START ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
SOME SUNSHINE AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA...BUT APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW ALF AND SOME DVLPG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL RESULT IN AT LEAST
THICKENING MID CLDS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN IN
THIS RELATIVELY WEAK WAA REGIME MAINLY ON SUN NGT. BUT GFS FCST
SDNGS SHOW SOME FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR...SO WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST
FOR NOW OVER THE LAND CWA AND RESTRICT COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS TO LK
SUP CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO AND WHERE GREATER LENGTH
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WOULD GENERATE HIER RH. WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO
AT LEAST START THE DAY AND H85 FCST TO RISE TO 6-8C TOWARD 00Z
MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUN TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
50S. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLDS/A STEADY WSW WIND ON SUN NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON...WEAK HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHRTWV WL BRING DRY WX
TO THE CWA ON MON TO THE S OF A SHRTWV TRACKING THRU NW ONTARIO.
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 8C AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...HI TEMPS WL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND IN THE 50S.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPR FLOW FM A ZONAL REGIME TO ONE
THAT FEATURES A BLDG RDG OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST DURING NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO ON MON...ITS WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE SE ACRS UPR MI. SINCE MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED AND
HGTS WL BE RISING...EXPECT THIS FROPA TO BE A DRY ONE. HI PRES IS
THEN PROGGED TO FOLLOW INTO NW ONTARIO WHILE THE FNT STALLS ACRS THE
UPR MIDWEST. AS LO PRES DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF...THE FNT WL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE N AS A WARM FNT. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOW THE SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE PLAINS ON WED
PASSING FAR ENUF TO THE W OF UPR MI THAT THE WARM FROPA LATE TUE
NGT/EARLY WED WL BE A DRY ONE. AS THE LO CONTINUES NE THRU ONTARIO
ON THU...ASSOCIATED COLD FNT WL DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...BRINGING
ONLY A CHC OF RA TO MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE ABSENCE
OF SGNFT HGT FALLS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WL RUN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WED WHEN THE CWA WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

OVERALL DEGRADING TREND IS DUE TO TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH
CIGS/VIS/WX LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
CONSISTENT HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A HI PRES RIDGE
CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES...EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
THE HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND LO PRES DRIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W AND
NCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE
THE SW FLOW. SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON SAT WILL THEN VEER TO THE W ON
SAT NIGHT AND SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1245 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY. THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON HALLOWEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL FOLLOW. HIGHS COULD BE NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TOUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TOO. THE
SPRINKLES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT MAY
ALSO OCCUR ALONG A DENSER CLOUD BAND ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-96.
ADDED SOME 10 POPS TO COVER THE SPRINKLES.

DRIER AIR DOES GRADUALLY MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO FEEL
ANY SPRINKLES WILL END BY 20Z. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SUN...BUT
THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA SOUTH OF I-96 TO I-94 SINCE BTL...AZO AND RMY ALL HAVE DENSE
FOG AS I WRITE THIS. THIS WAS THAT AREA OF CLEAR SKIES THAT CROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN A FEW HOURS AGO THAT IS NOW DOWN THERE. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK DOWN THERE TOO AND THAT WILL END THE FOG
BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO ME THIS FOG COULD STILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN
THE RAIN EVENT ON HALLOWEEN.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN I-94 AND
ROUTE 10 BUT CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY SUNRISE SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL ARE A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUT THOSE
SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING SO I DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN OUR
FORECAST.

ON HALLOWEEN... WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEING SHEARED
OUT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT OVER US. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HELPS TO STREAM MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO
THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES FROM UNDER A
HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH SATURDAY (2 TIMES NORMAL). THE
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AIMED AT MICHIGAN AGAIN
AND THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR 1 MB DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS. ALSO WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K SURFACES SO THIS IS A GOOD WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT. AIDED BY STRONG JET DYNAMICS. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS IT WILL RAIN. THE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THROUGH SO THERE IS NOT MUCH RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA THE NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT WILL
LEAD TO MANY DAYS IN A ROW OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER DRY WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE WED
NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME. WE WILL SEE A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVE BY THE
AREA WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. A FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AT THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A DECENT GULF FEED UP INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL OF RAIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AN AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED WITH THE I-94 TAF SITES. THIS WAS
AN AREA WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND THE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY... FOG DEVELOPED. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS AND THAT
SHOULD END THE DENSE FOG.

BEYOND THE FOG ISSUE... IR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF I-96 AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE CLOUDS HOLDING MOST
OF THE DAY SO I WILL CONTINUE VFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

AS FOR BRINGING IN THE RAIN FOR TOMORROWS EVENT...MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE AFTER 18Z BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THE I-94 TAF SITES COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN AFTER 12Z.
SINCE THAT IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST WINDOW I DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING
THAT IN OUR 12Z TAF SET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I PLAN TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS IT IS IN
THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL GETTING ENOUGH WIND AND
WAVES TO KEEP IT GOING. WE MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THAT ISSUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

NO FLOODING IS ONGOING. MINOR RISES HAVE OCCURRED ON AREA RIVERS
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF UNDER AN INCH. RIVER LEVELS
ARE PEAKING OR ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY DOWN. WITH UNDER AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT... EXPECT A REPEAT OF MINOR RISES ON RIVERS WITH NO FLOODING
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY. THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON HALLOWEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL FOLLOW. HIGHS COULD BE NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TOUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TOO. THE
SPRINKLES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT MAY
ALSO OCCUR ALONG A DENSER CLOUD BAND ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-96.
ADDED SOME 10 POPS TO COVER THE SPRINKLES.

DRIER AIR DOES GRADUALLY MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO FEEL
ANY SPRINKLES WILL END BY 20Z. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SUN...BUT
THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA SOUTH OF I-96 TO I-94 SINCE BTL...AZO AND RMY ALL HAVE DENSE
FOG AS I WRITE THIS. THIS WAS THAT AREA OF CLEAR SKIES THAT CROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN A FEW HOURS AGO THAT IS NOW DOWN THERE. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK DOWN THERE TOO AND THAT WILL END THE FOG
BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO ME THIS FOG COULD STILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN
THE RAIN EVENT ON HALLOWEEN.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN I-94 AND
ROUTE 10 BUT CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY SUNRISE SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL ARE A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUT THOSE
SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING SO I DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN OUR
FORECAST.

ON HALLOWEEN... WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEING SHEARED
OUT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT OVER US. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HELPS TO STREAM MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO
THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES FROM UNDER A
HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH SATURDAY (2 TIMES NORMAL). THE
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AIMED AT MICHIGAN AGAIN
AND THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR 1 MB DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS. ALSO WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K SURFACES SO THIS IS A GOOD WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT. AIDED BY STRONG JET DYNAMICS. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS IT WILL RAIN. THE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THROUGH SO THERE IS NOT MUCH RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA THE NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT WILL
LEAD TO MANY DAYS IN A ROW OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER DRY WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE WED
NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME. WE WILL SEE A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVE BY THE
AREA WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. A FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AT THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A DECENT GULF FEED UP INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL OF RAIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AN AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED WITH THE I-94 TAF SITES. THIS WAS
AN AREA WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND THE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY... FOG DEVELOPED. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS AND THAT
SHOULD END THE DENSE FOG.

BEYOND THE FOG ISSUE... IR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF I-96 AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE CLOUDS HOLDING MOST
OF THE DAY SO I WILL CONTINUE VFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

AS FOR BRINGING IN THE RAIN FOR TOMORROWS EVENT...MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE AFTER 18Z BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THE I-94 TAF SITES COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN AFTER 12Z.
SINCE THAT IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST WINDOW I DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING
THAT IN OUR 12Z TAF SET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I PLAN TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS IT IS IN
THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL GETTING ENOUGH WIND AND
WAVES TO KEEP IT GOING. WE MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THAT ISSUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 36 HOURS. AREA RIVERS HAVE LARGELY RESPONDED WITH MINOR
RISES WITHIN BANKS. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL HAVE LIMITED
IMPACT ON RIVERS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

WE WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COME
BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AMOUNTS OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECEIVED
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 739 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN...AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO IRON COUNTY.
SPECKLES OF ECHOES ON RADAR ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD AND KCMX REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN AN HOUR OR SO AGO. THERE IS HINT OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH ON WV LOOP AND THAT LIFT ALONG WITH ALREADY MOIST LOW-LEVELS
AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DRIZZLE. DO NOT EXPECT DRIZZLE TO LAST MUCH INTO
THE MORNING AS LATEST RAP GUDIDANCE INDICATES SHORTWAVE LIFT WEAKENS
AFTER DAYBREAK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WHICH MINIMIZES UPSLOPE LIFT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A BRIEF BOUT OF EARLY WINTRY
WEATHER FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
IS POISED TO CROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -5C IS RESULTING IN ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND HARVEY AS OF 4 AM EDT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH DAYBREAK BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN AND WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHWEST IN LOWEST 3KFT...EXPECT ANY
LAKE EFFECT TO END BY MID MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF FALL IT IS NOW THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHEN A RIDGE DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUAL CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THAT COULD BE THE CASE TODAY...AT LEAST FOR
PORTIONS OF CWA. CURRENTLY THERE ARE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF MN AND INTO AT LEAST
NORTH HALF OF WI. LOW CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WHEN WORKING EAST
OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
TODAY...SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS PRESENT JUST ABOVE H85...BUT MINIMAL
WARMING ABOVE INVERSION SHOULD NOT ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH.
ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BTWN H9-H8
AND IT REALLY NEVER GOES AWAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SW FLOW THINK
AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ATTM /PARTS OF MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES INTO DELTA COUNTY/ COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
KEWEENAW INTO BARAGA COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING. BEST
CHANCE FOR CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL BE OVER SW UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS...COULD
SEE A 50 DEGREE READING.

ATTN TONIGHT TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN AND
MONTANA AS WELL AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR SW CONUS. AS
THESE TWO UPPER WAVES HEAD EAST AND SFC HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST...WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 290-300K SFCS /H85-H65/ SPREAD INTO WESTERN CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE OVER CNTRL CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE JUST A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN. MID-LEVEL DRYING
COULD END THE RAIN LATE AT IWD AND CMX. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OVER 1 INCH STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVERALL THE
LIFT IS WEAK TO MODERATE. BOTH FACTORS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIGHT WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED TERM FOCUSES ON POPS EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND RELATED TO A WAA REGIME AHEAD OF A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS AND APRCHG FM THE W. NEXT WEEK...
THE UPR FLOW WL CHANGE TO ONE THAT FEATURES A BLDG UPR RDG ACRS THE
E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W. THIS
PATTERN WL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT WED...WHEN UPR MI WL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW TRACKING FM THE PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA. HI TEMPS AOA 60 WL BE PSBL ON WED.

SAT...AXIS OF STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST
DEPICTED ON THE 295K SFC /ABOUT H75/ RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN ON FRI
NGT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE E AND GIVE WAY TO SOME DRYING/
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY E IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO
APRCH LATER IN THE DAY AND SLOW DOWN THE DRYING TREND AS THE UPR
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE RESULT WL BE A LONGER DURATION
OF RAIN AND LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA/GREATER HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WRN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY...THE LARGER SCALE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING MOIST AXIS WL LIMIT LINGERING POPS IN THAT AREA. CLDS AND
SHOWERS WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
HALF WHERE THICKER CLDS AND PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT.

SAT NGT...INCOMING SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING E ACRS THE UPR LKS AND
GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DNVA W-E LATER AT NGT. SINCE THE
LARGER AREA OF MSTR WL STILL BE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA WHEN THE
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA ARRIVES...WL CARRY THE HIER LIKELY
POPS IN THAT AREA DURING THE EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS OVERNGT AND
ADVECTS DRIER INTO THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. SO TRICK-OR-TREATERS MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME RAIN. OVER THE W HALF...POPS WL BE LIMITED
BY MORE DRY AIR. EXPECT THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA
OVER THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTW TRACK/DEEPER MSTR. PCPN CHCS WL END W-
E LATER AT NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND THE DNVA BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS NO LOWER THAN 0-2C...THERE WL BE NO
LK EFFECT PCPN. GOING MIN TEMPS NOT FAR FM 40 APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
THE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE W DUE TO EARLIER CLRG.

SUN/SUN NGT...THE DAY ON SUN WL AT LEAST START ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
SOME SUNSHINE AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA...BUT APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW ALF AND SOME DVLPG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL RESULT IN AT LEAST
THICKENING MID CLDS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN IN
THIS RELATIVELY WEAK WAA REGIME MAINLY ON SUN NGT. BUT GFS FCST
SDNGS SHOW SOME FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR...SO WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST
FOR NOW OVER THE LAND CWA AND RESTRICT COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS TO LK
SUP CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO AND WHERE GREATER LENGTH
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WOULD GENERATE HIER RH. WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO
AT LEAST START THE DAY AND H85 FCST TO RISE TO 6-8C TOWARD 00Z
MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUN TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
50S. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLDS/A STEADY WSW WIND ON SUN NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON...WEAK HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHRTWV WL BRING DRY WX
TO THE CWA ON MON TO THE S OF A SHRTWV TRACKING THRU NW ONTARIO.
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 8C AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...HI TEMPS WL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND IN THE 50S.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPR FLOW FM A ZONAL REGIME TO ONE
THAT FEATURES A BLDG RDG OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST DURING NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO ON MON...ITS WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE SE ACRS UPR MI. SINCE MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED AND
HGTS WL BE RISING...EXPECT THIS FROPA TO BE A DRY ONE. HI PRES IS
THEN PROGGED TO FOLLOW INTO NW ONTARIO WHILE THE FNT STALLS ACRS THE
UPR MIDWEST. AS LO PRES DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF...THE FNT WL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE N AS A WARM FNT. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOW THE SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE PLAINS ON WED
PASSING FAR ENUF TO THE W OF UPR MI THAT THE WARM FROPA LATE TUE
NGT/EARLY WED WL BE A DRY ONE. AS THE LO CONTINUES NE THRU ONTARIO
ON THU...ASSOCIATED COLD FNT WL DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...BRINGING
ONLY A CHC OF RA TO MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE ABSENCE
OF SGNFT HGT FALLS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WL RUN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WED WHEN THE CWA WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX AND KSAW TODAY...SO CIGS MAY LIFT TO LOW VFR
AT TIMES. LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS MOVES OVER ALL THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE VSBY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR LATE AT KSAW AS
THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A HI PRES RIDGE
CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES...EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
THE HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND LO PRES DRIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W AND
NCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE
THE SW FLOW. SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON SAT WILL THEN VEER TO THE W ON
SAT NIGHT AND SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY. THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON HALLOWEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL FOLLOW. HIGHS COULD BE NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA SOUTH OF I-96 TO I-94 SINCE BTL...AZO AND RMY ALL HAVE DENSE
FOG AS I WRITE THIS. THIS WAS THAT AREA OF CLEAR SKIES THAT CROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN A FEW HOURS AGO THAT IS NOW DOWN THERE. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK DOWN THERE TOO AND THAT WILL END THE FOG
BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO ME THIS FOG COULD STILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN
THE RAIN EVENT ON HALLOWEEN.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN I-94 AND
ROUTE 10 BUT CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPEAD THE AREA
BY SUNRISE SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL ARE A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUT THOSE
SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING SO I DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN OUR
FORECAST.

ON HALLOWEEN... WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEING SHEARED
OUT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT OVER US. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HELPS TO STREAM MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO
THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES FROM UNDER A
HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH SATURDAY (2 TIMES NORMAL). THE
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AIMED AT MICHIGAN AGAIN
AND THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR 1 MB DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS. ALSO WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K SURFACES SO THIS IS A GOOD WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT. AIDED BY STRONG JET DYNAMICS. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS IT WILL RAIN. THE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THROUGH SO THERE IS NOT MUCH RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA THE NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT WILL
LEAD TO MANY DAYS IN A ROW OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER DRY WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE WED
NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME. WE WILL SEE A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVE BY THE
AREA WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. A FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AT THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A DECENT GULF FEED UP INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL OF RAIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AN AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED WITH THE I-94 TAF SITES. THIS WAS
AN AREA WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND THE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY... FOG DEVELOPED. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS AND THAT
SHOULD END THE DENSE FOG.

BEYOND THE FOG ISSUE... IR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF I-96 AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCIONSIN. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE CLOUDS HOLDING MOST
OF THE DAY SO I WILL CONTINUE VFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

AS FOR BRINGING IN THE RAIN FOR TOMORROWS EVENT...MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE AFTER 18Z BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THE I-94 TAF SITES COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN AFTER 12Z.
SINCE THAT IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST WINDOW I DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING
THAT IN OUR 12Z TAF SET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I PLAN TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS IT IS IN
THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL GETTING ENOUGH WIND AND
WAVES TO KEEP IT GOING. WE MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THAT ISSUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 36 HOURS. AREA RIVERS HAVE LARGELY RESPONDED WITH MINOR
RISES WITHIN BANKS. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL HAVE LIMITED
IMPACT ON RIVERS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

WE WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COME
BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AMOUNTS OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECEIVED
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN...AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO IRON COUNTY.
SPECKLES OF ECHOES ON RADAR ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD AND KCMX REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN AN HOUR OR SO AGO. THERE IS HINT OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH ON WV LOOP AND THAT LIFT ALONG WITH ALREADY MOIST LOW-LEVELS
AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DRIZZLE. DO NOT EXPECT DRIZZLE TO LAST MUCH INTO
THE MORNING AS LATEST RAP GUDIDANCE INDICATES SHORTWAVE LIFT WEAKENS
AFTER DAYBREAK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WHICH MINIMIZES UPSLOPE LIFT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A BRIEF BOUT OF EARLY WINTRY
WEATHER FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
IS POISED TO CROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -5C IS RESULTING IN ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND HARVEY AS OF 4 AM EDT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH DAYBREAK BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN AND WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHWEST IN LOWEST 3KFT...EXPECT ANY
LAKE EFFECT TO END BY MID MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF FALL IT IS NOW THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHEN A RIDGE DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUAL CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THAT COULD BE THE CASE TODAY...AT LEAST FOR
PORTIONS OF CWA. CURRENTLY THERE ARE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF MN AND INTO AT LEAST
NORTH HALF OF WI. LOW CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WHEN WORKING EAST
OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
TODAY...SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS PRESENT JUST ABOVE H85...BUT MINIMAL
WARMING ABOVE INVERSION SHOULD NOT ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH.
ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BTWN H9-H8
AND IT REALLY NEVER GOES AWAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SW FLOW THINK
AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ATTM /PARTS OF MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES INTO DELTA COUNTY/ COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
KEWEENAW INTO BARAGA COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING. BEST
CHANCE FOR CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL BE OVER SW UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS...COULD
SEE A 50 DEGREE READING.

ATTN TONIGHT TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN AND
MONTANA AS WELL AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR SW CONUS. AS
THESE TWO UPPER WAVES HEAD EAST AND SFC HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST...WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 290-300K SFCS /H85-H65/ SPREAD INTO WESTERN CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE OVER CNTRL CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE JUST A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN. MID-LEVEL DRYING
COULD END THE RAIN LATE AT IWD AND CMX. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OVER 1 INCH STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVERALL THE
LIFT IS WEAK TO MODERATE. BOTH FACTORS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIGHT WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED TERM FOCUSES ON POPS EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND RELATED TO A WAA REGIME AHEAD OF A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS AND APRCHG FM THE W. NEXT WEEK...
THE UPR FLOW WL CHANGE TO ONE THAT FEATURES A BLDG UPR RDG ACRS THE
E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W. THIS
PATTERN WL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT WED...WHEN UPR MI WL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW TRACKING FM THE PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA. HI TEMPS AOA 60 WL BE PSBL ON WED.

SAT...AXIS OF STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST
DEPICTED ON THE 295K SFC /ABOUT H75/ RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN ON FRI
NGT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE E AND GIVE WAY TO SOME DRYING/
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY E IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO
APRCH LATER IN THE DAY AND SLOW DOWN THE DRYING TREND AS THE UPR
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE RESULT WL BE A LONGER DURATION
OF RAIN AND LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA/GREATER HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WRN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY...THE LARGER SCALE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING MOIST AXIS WL LIMIT LINGERING POPS IN THAT AREA. CLDS AND
SHOWERS WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
HALF WHERE THICKER CLDS AND PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT.

SAT NGT...INCOMING SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING E ACRS THE UPR LKS AND
GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DNVA W-E LATER AT NGT. SINCE THE
LARGER AREA OF MSTR WL STILL BE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA WHEN THE
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA ARRIVES...WL CARRY THE HIER LIKELY
POPS IN THAT AREA DURING THE EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS OVERNGT AND
ADVECTS DRIER INTO THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. SO TRICK-OR-TREATERS MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME RAIN. OVER THE W HALF...POPS WL BE LIMITED
BY MORE DRY AIR. EXPECT THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA
OVER THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTW TRACK/DEEPER MSTR. PCPN CHCS WL END W-
E LATER AT NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND THE DNVA BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS NO LOWER THAN 0-2C...THERE WL BE NO
LK EFFECT PCPN. GOING MIN TEMPS NOT FAR FM 40 APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
THE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE W DUE TO EARLIER CLRG.

SUN/SUN NGT...THE DAY ON SUN WL AT LEAST START ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
SOME SUNSHINE AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA...BUT APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW ALF AND SOME DVLPG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL RESULT IN AT LEAST
THICKENING MID CLDS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN IN
THIS RELATIVELY WEAK WAA REGIME MAINLY ON SUN NGT. BUT GFS FCST
SDNGS SHOW SOME FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR...SO WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST
FOR NOW OVER THE LAND CWA AND RESTRICT COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS TO LK
SUP CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO AND WHERE GREATER LENGTH
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WOULD GENERATE HIER RH. WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO
AT LEAST START THE DAY AND H85 FCST TO RISE TO 6-8C TOWARD 00Z
MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUN TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
50S. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLDS/A STEADY WSW WIND ON SUN NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON...WEAK HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHRTWV WL BRING DRY WX
TO THE CWA ON MON TO THE S OF A SHRTWV TRACKING THRU NW ONTARIO.
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 8C AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...HI TEMPS WL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND IN THE 50S.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPR FLOW FM A ZONAL REGIME TO ONE
THAT FEATURES A BLDG RDG OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST DURING NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO ON MON...ITS WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE SE ACRS UPR MI. SINCE MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED AND
HGTS WL BE RISING...EXPECT THIS FROPA TO BE A DRY ONE. HI PRES IS
THEN PROGGED TO FOLLOW INTO NW ONTARIO WHILE THE FNT STALLS ACRS THE
UPR MIDWEST. AS LO PRES DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF...THE FNT WL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE N AS A WARM FNT. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOW THE SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE PLAINS ON WED
PASSING FAR ENUF TO THE W OF UPR MI THAT THE WARM FROPA LATE TUE
NGT/EARLY WED WL BE A DRY ONE. AS THE LO CONTINUES NE THRU ONTARIO
ON THU...ASSOCIATED COLD FNT WL DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...BRINGING
ONLY A CHC OF RA TO MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE ABSENCE
OF SGNFT HGT FALLS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WL RUN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WED WHEN THE CWA WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. DRY AIR GETS BRIEFLY INTO KCMX
FRI MORNING AND AT KSAW WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A HI PRES RIDGE
CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES...EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
THE HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND LO PRES DRIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W AND
NCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE
THE SW FLOW. SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON SAT WILL THEN VEER TO THE W ON
SAT NIGHT AND SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1110 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND WE
REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST...DRAPED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SO...THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE TAPERING AROUND DARK. DRIZZLE AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
WI.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...SO WINDS WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS MOST THE FA. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...THE MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW STRATUS TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE THE SURFACE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH.
WITH THAT...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE TEMPS.

TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECTING PRECIP TO START BREAKING
OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.  CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z-00Z...BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TOMORROW NIGHT /WHICH IS DISCUSSED
FURTHER IN THE LONG TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW MN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN WESTERN WISC FRIDAY EVENING...
ENDING IN WESTERN WISC SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
FROM THE WNW WILL BRING A CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING...MODEST STRENGTH MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE SW
STATES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NEWD AND SIDESWIPING MN/WI. GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WISC FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WNW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WISC. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STARVED FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SMALLER POPS ARE IN ORDER AS FAR SOUTH AS EAST CENTRAL MN AND
MOST OF OUR WISCONSIN AREA...THIS IS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

NEXT LITTLE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WNW LOOKS MUCH TO WEAK TO
RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS. THIS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ON
MONDAY...AND MODELS POINT TO A BROAD AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MN/WI. THUS WILL NEED TO HOLD TO MAX
TEMPS FOR MONDAY THAT ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HOWEVER...LARGE WESTERN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD...WITH PART OF THE ENERGY SINKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD AREA OF SW UPPER FLOW HEADING
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TUE-WED. AS
THIS OCCURS.. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD... AND A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SUGGEST MORE
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

SINCE THE SUN HAS SET...THE CLEARING THAT WAS WORKING ACROSS ERN
SODAK HAS ABSOLUTELY SLAMMED ON THE BRAKES. FORTUNATELY...EXISTING
TAFS WERE ALREADY FAVORING THE SLOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF VFR CIGS SO ALL THAT WAS NEEDED TO DO WAS DELAY THE
IMPROVEMENT AN HOUR OR TWO. BIGGER PROBLEM WITH THIS CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN THE VARIABLE CIG HEIGHT. EXPECT THE WORST
CONDITIONS...LIKELY DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...ON THE WEST EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH MEANS AXN/RWF WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IFR
CIGS AT TIME. FOR ERN MN/WRN WI...EXPECT THESE TERMINALS TO
MAINTAIN A 015-030 CIG THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHES THESE AREAS IT WILL BE AFTERNOON
SUNRISE WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO COME UP ANYWAYS. AS THESE CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING WRN WI...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING -RA APPROACHING RWF BY
00Z THAT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO WRN WI BY 6Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU WILL SEE RAIN AND THAT AXN WILL NOT. STC
LOOKS TO BE LIVING ON THE EDGE. BESIDE THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN AS WELL. KEPT MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED
THOUGH.

KMSP...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHES MSP TOWARD
MORNING...EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN DESCEND. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
MSP SEES IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW 017 FOR THE MORNING PUSH. DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS AN HOUR...THOUGH LATEST NAM DOES NOT HAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT UNTIL 18Z. FOR RAIN...STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 1Z AND 4Z...WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MORNING MVFR/SHRA. VFR AFTN. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND WEST BECMG SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MPG



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS EXPECTED. THE TEMP
QUICKLY FALLS INTO THE UPPER 20S ONCE THE SKY CLEARS. WITH THAT
SAID...AN AREA OF HIGH BASED CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY CLOSING THE CLEAR
GAP...AND CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BALL
PARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

ISSUE TONIGHT IS CLOUD TRENDS. FOR THE MOST FOLLOWED THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND OF THE HRRR MODEL ITS 925 MB RH FIELD. IT SHOWS THE
MAIN CLEARING WAITING TIL 06Z OR LATER TO REACH THE RRV. THAT SAID
THERE IS A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS NOW APPEARING QUITE QUICKLY
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO COOPERSTOWN. THIS CLOUD AREA MAY CLEAR OUT
MORE AND THIS MAY ACCELERATE CLEARING A LOT FASTER THAN CURRENT
GRIDS HAVE. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN TEMPS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
FOR LOWS AS WELL. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SOUTH OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA. KEPT THE AREA DRY WITH MODELS
INDICATING PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MILD ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WORK IN
BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES/SFC LOWS WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTL BORDER
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE FAST MOVING AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...BEST CHANCE
MIDDAY SATURDAY NE ND AND AFTN IN NW MN. THEN ANOTHER CHC SUNDAY.
BOTH AREA PRETTY LIGHT EVENTS. QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH HIGHS LOWER
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH WHERE SOME SUN IS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES SHOW PCPN OVER THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD...WITH PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN...BUT THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN
SCENARIO ATTM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL HEADING INTO NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING THE VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND THEN
KBJI BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 156 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY...
ALLOWING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN MODERATE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. BASED ON RECENT RAP RH PLOTS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHEAST-PROGRESSING
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WAS REFINED. SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO NECESSARY
TO TEMPERATURES...AS THE COOLEST SPOTS IN THE CWA TONIGHT MAY BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS PROJECTED...AND WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AS THEY DROP INTO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
DEEP MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSLATE NE INTO
SE CANADA THIS EVENING AS LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MS VLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED S/W IN THE NW FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MS VLY TO DROP SE THRU OHIO OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE
NORTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
10 KTS THIS EVENING WITH SPEED MAX ROTATING NE AND LOWER PORTION
OF AIRMASS BECOMES LESS MIXED WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S SOUTH TO NEAR 40 NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE SW. AS THE LOWER CLOUDS DIMINISH...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 7 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL MILDER. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF NRN S/W IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SATURDAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH PCPN IN WAA. WILL FOLLOW A SOLN
CLOSER TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC/CHC POP OF A
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTN. IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS SAT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW
TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE TO LKLY SAT EVENING FROM NW TO SE.
LOWS WILL BE MILD FROM THE UPPER 40S NW THE LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER PUSHING OUT SHOWERS.  ACCORDING TO THE USUALLY RELIABLE
ECMWF...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD....WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. SUBSIDENCE
IN THE DRY AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE SURFACE HIGH COMBINED WITH
CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS RISING GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WARM ADVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL TEAM WITH
RATHER WEAK AUTUMN INSOLATION TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN UP TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
UPPER 60S AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS COMPARES TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS WORKED INTO THE TAF SITES AND WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AROUND THE TAF
SITES CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS NEAR
KCMH AND KDAY. HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KCMH AND KLCK
AND HOLD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT KILN
AND KDAY. HAVE KCVG AND KLUK CIGS STAYING VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED MVFR CIG AT ANY TAF SITE FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER LIMITED MVFR MENTION
TO LOCATIONS ABOVE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1257 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA.
VIRGA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE REACHING THE GROUND
SOON AS -RA, AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN UP. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY, BRINGING IN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AROUND 10Z. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AFFECTING ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. THE LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO VERY NEAR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CEILINGS FURTHER LOWERING POSSIBLY TO LIFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD 22Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...
DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT NEAR AND EAST OF I-35.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...WHICH
MUCH OF THIS WAS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS. THINK THESE ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUS...INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. MOST RAINFALL WILL NOT OCCUR AFTER 3 AM. THE OKLAHOMA
CITY AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY UNTIL 7 AM. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
THUNDER...THOUGH NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR. LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ENID...AND STILLWATER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. DO
NOT THINK FROST WILL BE A PROBLEM IN THESE LOCATIONS AS INCREASING
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BECOME STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

AVIATION...
A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS &
ISOLATED TS TO DEVELOP. THE TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 12Z
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF OUR OUR REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST. LOW
CEILINGS & VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING... REDUCED TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS THE CEILINGS CONTINUES TO
FALL. KSPS & KLAW MAY EVEN GET FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z...
FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT THESE TWO TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY... THE WRN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL INTO THE
DESERT SW... DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PAC/GULF OF CA. IN
RESPONSE... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM THE SIERRA MADRES
IN MEXICO TO THE SANGRE DE CHRISTO MTNS IN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING... BUILDING EASTWARD... AS THE H500 TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS AZ/NM. FOR THE SRN PLAINS... THE WEAK SFC
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY... HAS STALLED OUT NEAR THE
RED RIVER. IN RESPONSE... A STOUT GRADIENT FOR TEMPS THIS AFTN HAS
DEVELOPED... WITH FALL LIKE WEATHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY... LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S AND MID 70S TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WRN N TX/TEXOMA.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WRN N TX AS THE STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY THE LLJ
WILL INCREASE... 30 TO 40 KTS... AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERALL...
INCREASES LL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE STEADILY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO E/NE THROUGH SUNRISE AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH LIFTS E/NE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO INTO WRN N TX
TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

FRIDAY... SYNOPTICALLY... RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES WITH THE
12Z GUIDANCE REGARDING THE SPEED/POSITION OF THE H500 TROUGH AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD. HOWEVER... QPF (QUALITATIVE PRECIP FORECAST)
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE
ECMWF HAS HAD TROUBLE LOCKING DOWN ON THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF...
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST. WITH
THAT SAID... THE GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS... WITH THE GREATEST AXIS EXTENDING BETWEEN THE I-44 CORRIDOR
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN
ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND CONSIDERING IT
HAS SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE NAM...
AND LATEST ARW/NMM WRF SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE... INCREASED CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY... NEAR OR AT 100 PERCENT FOR MOST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN TX INTO SRN OK FOR NEARLY ALL DAY AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE REGION OF
GREATEST ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO THE AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY... BETTER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
IN NRN TX THAN IN SRN OR CENTRAL OK... THEREFORE... WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN CHC TO SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN OK AND WRN N
TX THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT... EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO TAPPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS WRN OK... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN OK INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY AIR INTRUSION BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/WRN OK. KEPT HIGHER CHANCES
GOING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK... WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF
QUICKLY THROUGH SUNRISE SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY... MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES... WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF
QUICKLY AFTER NOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BODES WELL FOR THE
WEATHER FESTIVAL HERE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER... I WOULD
STILL PACK AN UMBRELLA... BUT IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE A PLEASANT FALL
DAY. AS FOR TRICK OR TREATERS SATURDAY EVENING... ONLY THOSE IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK WILL POTENTIALLY NEED A PONCHO OR UMBRELLA...
THOUGH MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF
OK.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS... GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY DISCUSSED ABOVE...
EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO MATERIALIZE FROM NEAR THE I-
44 CORRIDOR EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK... AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE THOUGHTS FROM WPC... AND GIVEN THE OVERALL
SUPPORT... INCREASED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3.50 INCHES
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH... I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 OR 4.50 IN OCCUR. ELSEWHERE... IN WRN
AND NRN OK... AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF TO 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY... FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL GREET YOU WHEN YOU ARISE... WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE AFTN. THIS GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
TAKES HOLD BEFORE ANOTHER WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN OKAY
AGREEMENT... BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER LEADING INTO THU/FRI AS THE
ECMWF TRIES ONCE AGAIN... LIKE IT DID WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM...
TO CUTOFF THE H500 TROUGH. HOWEVER... THE OVERALL TREND IS
SIMILAR... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  64  48  73 /  80  20  10   0
HOBART OK         49  65  45  73 /  50  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  67  48  73 /  80  20  10  10
GAGE OK           43  65  40  74 /  50  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  64  44  73 /  80  30   0   0
DURANT OK         58  68  52  71 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/68/68




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

 1206 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STRATUS IS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING SO DID ADJUST
SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD QUITE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR AND HOP WRF CLOUD
COVER PRODUCTS PICKING UP ON THE CLEARING QUITE NICELY AND SHOWS THE
CLEARING CONTINUING...BUT PERHAPS STALLING A BIT LATER THIS EVENING
FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE QUITE TRICKY AND DO NOT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE
WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO GO SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST. TOUGH
TO BALANCE ALL THIS OUT AND GET A GOOD NUMBER FOR LOWS. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...LOOKING AT 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHEAST SD INTO MN AND STILL HAVE JUST SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE CWA. MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARM UP INTO SATURDAY AS 925/850 MB TEMPS
ARE ON THE RISE WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BENEATH A MILD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. A
SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE OF ENERGY THAT KICKS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE AMONGST MODEL
RUNS. MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE OUT PERIODS...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MVFR CLOUDS NEAR KATY...IT SHOULD BE VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 933 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DRIZZLE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL SUBSTANTIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF
3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF
THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES
EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.

CJC

.AVIATION...

STEADY RAINFALL HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LOWERING
CIGS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOST
LIKELY DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY BY 06Z FOR MEM AND TUP. JBR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MVFR CATEGORY BUT CIGS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE ENE.

ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST ALLOWING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
FOG AND LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ENE.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF
3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF
THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES
EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.

CJC

.AVIATION...

STEADY RAINFALL HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LOWERING
CIGS WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOST
LIKELY DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY BY 06Z FOR MEM AND TUP. JBR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MVFR CATEGORY BUT CIGS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE ENE.

ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST ALLOWING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
FOG AND LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ENE.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  79  57  77  50 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  80  57  77  48 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  57  78  51 /  70  40  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  75  54  75  51 /  80  30  10  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  79  53  82  51 /  50  10   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  77  55  75  51 /  80  40  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  82  54  80  50 /  60  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  80  57  77  51 /  70  40  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  81  59  76  53 /  80  60  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  83  56  78  51 /  70  20  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  84  57  79  51 /  70  20  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER HISTORICAL OCTOBER FLOOD EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS...AND AT LEAST 16 INCHES 5 MILES SW OF KYLE...OBSERVED
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO THROUGH
WIMBERLEY AND KYLE TO SOUTHEAST SIDES OF AUSTIN. BACKBUILDING
CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY AND
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CELL TRAINING CONTINUES TO OCCUR. THIS...COUPLED WITH A 50 KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY LESS DEEP THAN IT WAS A FEW HOURS
AGO WHEN UP TO 6 INCH/HR RAIN RATES WERE OBSERVED...THIS TRAINING
WILL CONTINUE A SIGNIFICANT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
PRIMARILY ALONG A LINE ORIENTED FROM SAN MARCOS TO ELGIN TO
LEXINGTON. FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
FAR NW BEXAR...MOST OF COMAL AND HAYS...AND THE ONION CREEK BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TRAVIS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO VERY LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO BASTROP...LEE...EASTERN
TRAVIS...AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS CELLS CONTINUE MOVING INTO THESE AREAS. ISOLATED RAIN
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ALSO
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 300 M^2/S^2. ALTHOUGH
THIS THREAT IS WINDING DOWN TO SOME EXTEND DUE TO A RELATIVE LACK
OF DISCRETE CELLS...ANY NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LINE AND INTO THE TRAINING LINE MAY HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT BY FAR FOR THIS
EVENT IS SIGNIFINCANT FLASH AND SUBSEQUENT RIVER FLOODING.

THE AFTERNOON AFD WILL COVER MORE ABOUT HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE TONIGHT...BUT HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD CELLS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
IT WILL SEEM LIKE A LULL COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL. HI-
RES AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GENERALLY NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT VERY
WELL...BUT THE CURRENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS DO INDICATE THIS AS
WELL...THOUGH THINKING IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE AS THEY
SUGGEST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CELLS TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AFTER 20-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 1-3Z. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL THINKING 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE TOO WORKED OVER FROM AN INSTABILITY
STANDPOINT TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FOCUSED AREA AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING
TONIGHT...FEEL THE HRRR IS PROBABLY TOO AGRESSIVE ON THAT AT THE
MOMENT. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME STORM EVENT
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 18-20 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE I-35
TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF SAT/SSF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO END TSRA BY 13-14Z...WHILE TSRA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
16Z AT AUS WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR AT SAT/SSF FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AT AUS THROUGH 16Z
ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS TO MIX BEFORE THEN. TSRA ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT DRT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SITE.

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS PACIFIC MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE...BUT ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21-22 AT SAT/SSF. BASED ON HI-RES
MODEL TRENDS AND A GENERALLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...A
LINE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 23Z AT DRT AND
3-4Z AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND FUTURE MODEL
RUNS SHOULD HELP REFINE THESE TIMES WITH THE NEXT AFD. RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD END TSRA CHANCES BY
SUNRISE WITH NW WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ARE WELL
UNDERWAY AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE METRO CITIES DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES STACKING UP OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING MEANS THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NEGATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS CRUISING AT 30 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ONLY MINIMAL AREAS OF TRAINING EXPECTED. CURRENTLY EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD FORM IN AN UPSTREAM PROPAGATION REGION BY
DAYBREAK AND LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. WILL WANT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS BEFORE CONSIDERING A FFA. STORM TOTAL EXPECTED AMOUNTS FOR
NOW REMAIN AT 2-4...ISOLATED 6...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND OUTSIDE THE EFFECTIVE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THREAT...THE
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS THE LOOK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BASED ON ELEVATED
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHOUT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ROTATING STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO
OCCUR TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES
40-55 KNOTS AND CAPES EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR AN MCS THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF I-35 IN THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH THE COOL OUTFLOW SURGING THE CONVECTIVE LINE EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TX BY DAYBREAK. THUS PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR FLOODING IN
OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO END AT AROUND DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LEAVES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF MILD AND DRY DAYS TO RECOVER...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY MOISTURE
BEGINS RACING ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WILL TAKE THE HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOWN BY THE GFS WITH SOME
DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM...BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL PERIODS OF
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  66  78  57  77 / 100  90  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  66  79  54  77 / 100  90  40  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  67  82  56  79 /  90  90  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  62  74  54  75 /  90  90  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  61  79  53  82 /  70  70  20  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  65  76  54  75 /  90  90  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  65  83  54  80 /  90  80  30  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  67  80  57  77 / 100  90  40  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  70  80  58  76 /  90  80  70  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  67  82  57  80 /  90  90  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  68  84  58  80 /  80  80  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1259 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND 09-14Z FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING. GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. DID SPEED UP SOME OF
THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE HRRR AND
HRRR-X HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BOARDER EARLIER. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW A PRETTY HEFTY INSTABILITY BURST ACROSS THESE AFOREMENTIONED
ZONES WITH 50C+ TOTAL TOTALS AND -5 TO -7C SHOWALTER INDICES. THIS
ADDS CREDENCE TO THE QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, ALL OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW SO DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH
OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE OF WHERE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.

COASTAL FLOODING...WE KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 1AM AS HIGH
TIDE MOVES ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS PORT O`CONNOR. DEPARTURES ARE
STILL ELEVATED, RUNNING ABOUT 0.6 TO 0.9 FEET ABOVE, WHICH WILL
STILL CAUSE MINOR WASHOVER ALONG OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES.
ONCE THE SURFACE WINDS VEER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WE SHOULD START
TO SEE THE DEPARTURES SHRINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...EXPECT CIGS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
STATUS. THERE IS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THAT WILL BRING SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE REGION...STARTING TOWARD LRD
FIRST AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE ISOLATED SHRAS POSSIBLE MOVING
INLAND FROM THE GULF...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE SYSTEM OUT WEST...EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN PREVAILING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALI-CRP-VCT AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
REMAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MAY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST AND
NORTH FROM LRD TO END MENTION OF VCTS FROM LRD TAF BY 18Z. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY OUT OF THE S-SE RANGING FROM 20-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WARM FRONT CAN BE
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SLOWLY DRIFTING N. AS A
RESULT...DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE WARMER AND MUGGIER.
MODELS PROG AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO MV
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AND LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHCS ACROSS THE W CWA OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLNS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND A DRY SLOT
DVLPG AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER
ON EVOLUTION OF PRECIP ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FCST FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE GFS SOLN ACTUALLY SHOWS LITTLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRI WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION
JUST N AND S OF THE AREA DUE TO THE DRY SLOT MOVG DIRECTLY OVHD.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS THAT THE GFS ALSO SHOWS 2 INCH
PWATS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY...RRQ OF UPPER JET APPROACHING THE
AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
EAST AND INCREASING SHEAR WHICH ALL POINT TO POSSIBLY STRONG/SVR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE KEPT SPREAD OF 50 POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TO 80 POPS ACROSS THE NE CWA BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
E-NE. ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF SVR/HVY RAIN BUT ONLY WITH THE 80
POPS TO THE N. SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
BUT KEPT IT AT LIKELY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW PRECIP FRI NIGHT AHD
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT...BUT THIS CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ELEVATED
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL CONTS FRI NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...HAVE A MENTION OF SVR/HVY FRI
NIGHT AS WELL. AS FOR FLOODING...AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FLOODING LIKE THE PAST EVENT DUE TO THIS SYSTEM MOVG RATHER
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA AND PWAT`S NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS AS
BEFORE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR WINDS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX/MEX WILL DEEPEN FRI AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS S TX AND THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BAYS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED FRI MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ONGOING ON SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FRONT THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL THEN EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING. THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  75  85  63  80  /  70  80  60  10  10
VICTORIA          82  72  82  60  78  /  80  80  70  10  10
LAREDO            87  71  86  60  82  /  50  50  20  10  10
ALICE             85  74  86  61  81  /  70  70  50  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  75  82  65  78  /  70  80  80  10  10
COTULLA           85  69  84  58  80  /  70  70  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  75  86  62  81  /  60  70  60  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       83  76  83  66  79  /  60  80  70  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

 1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 1400FT AT KBKS AND KAPY TO
NEAR 2500FT AT KMFE. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH FOG AT KPIL
TO NEAR 6SM WITH HAZE AT KHRL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY FRI MORNING AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES ON FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT ON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON BOTH NEAR TERM EVENTS AND A GENERAL MODIFIED
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

NEAR TERM...OVERNIGHT: HRRR AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
UPPER VALLEY AND RANCHLANDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE RATHER
BODACIOUS...WITH SOME PERSISTENCE IN FORECASTING UP TO 2 INCHES IN
SOME SORT OF MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN FACT THAT THE REGION WAS
JUST SOUTH OF THE `WARM` FRONT EARLIER TODAY THE POSSIBILITY
SEEMED REAL...BUT WITH THE FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THE
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TYPE OF LATE NIGHT MCS APPEARS TO HAVE
SHIFTED TO SOUTH TEXAS...IN LINE WITH ECMWF/GFS TRENDS.
STILL...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND IS
HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO ARGUE FOR SOME INCREASE AND EXTENSION
OF RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z. BASED ON THE EARLIER HI
RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF EACH
SHOWING A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO THE WEST OF ZAPATA...HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY CATEGORY /60 PERCENT/ THERE AND SHADED
BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST. DID NOT FIDDLE MUCH WITH
QPF...CAN`T RULE OUT AN INCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS BUT
CLOSER TO 0.1 TO 0.5 WHERE IT RAINS IS MOST LIKELY.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS AND BY
EXTENSION THE 18Z GFS ALL SHOW SOME TYPE OF LINEAR/BANDED
DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 18Z...FAVORING THE POPULATED RGV AS LEADING
ENERGY AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT 250 MB JET DIVERGENCE SETTLES ON TOP
OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND COLUMN MOISTENS DRAMATICALLY ALONG
WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF GOOD TURNING..ALL WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME KIND OF MINI-QLCS
DEVELOPMENT. AS MENTIONED ON THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
SHIFT...CLOUD COVER COULD BE KEY TO STRENGTH OF ANY QLCS AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. BOTTOM LINE? BEST CHANCES FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN...LOCALLY 4...INCLUDING WESLACO THROUGH WILLACY AND POINTS
SOUTH WHICH CONTINUE WITH FLOOD POCKETS THIS EVENING...PEAKS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE RUN A 0.5 TO 0.75" QPF ON
AVERAGE...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE TEASED UPWARD.

THE BIGGER CHANGES COME FRIDAY NIGHT...IF THE GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF ARE TO BE BELIEVED. THE PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORT
WAVE VEERS LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF THE DECK TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
TAPS DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AND BUILDS A PRETTY ROBUST CAP
AT 850 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SURGE INTO THE LOW 20S
(CELSIUS). THIS WOULD CUT OFF CONVECTION LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS OR
AT MOST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. EXACTLY WHEN THE WIND VEERS AND CAP DEVELOPS IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT EARLY ENOUGH COULD ALLOW FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOOTBALL AND PRE-HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES TO GO AS SCHEDULED. A
SECOND INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD RE-FORM NEAR THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE COVERED BY HOLDING ONTO DECENT RAIN
CHANCES.
52/BSG

AVIATION...00Z TAFS INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR EARLY TO MID MORNING
THUNDER AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMED A BIT EARLIER
AT KMFE AND LATER AT KBRO. MAY NEED TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO IFR
AFTER 16-18Z OR SO IF MODEL TRENDS FOR THE BIG `ACTION` CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MVFR CEILING OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT 10
TO 15 KNOT WIND...JUMPING INTO THE 18 TO 22 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY ASSUMING NO DISRUPTING MCS OR RESIDUE THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
52/BSG

MARINE...ELECTED TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WITH
SEAS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. CORPUS CHRISTI 00Z RAOB ALREADY SHOWED
WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK AT 7 PM AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET UP TO OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH EVEN IF CUT DOWN BY THE VISCOUS MARINE LAYER
WOULD GIVE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW AND
MADE JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EDGES CLOSER. THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES IT EAST INTO
THE CWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE PROPPED UP IN THE
MID 70S. THE FAVORABLE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG SOUTH
LLJ OVERNIGHT...AND WILL FEED INTO A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL BE ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS INLAND AND
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARER THE COAST. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS ADVERTISED BY SPC...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVORING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADOES...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. HIT AND
RUN SHOWERS...AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE DAY...WILL CONTAIN BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WITH PWAT PUSHING ABOVE TWO INCHES AGAIN...COULD SEE
A QUICK INCH OF RAIN...BUT TRAINING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. QUICK MOVEMENT
ON THE OTHER HAND COULD LIMIT QPF.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER TO SUGGEST A SQUALL LINE
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO KICKOFF
THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT SHOULD ACHIEVE FAVORABLE TIMING. TWO TO
FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE...WITH SMALL SPIN-UPS
POSSIBLE. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST LATE...WITH DRY
SLOTTING AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ON SATURDAY MAINTAINING THE
THREAT FOR CONV MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH 500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER VERY LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
WILL PUSH INTO THE DESERT SW STATES WITH RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEX. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED IN ON
THE SW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST TROUGH AXIS AS THE ECMWF TENDS TO HOLD THE TROUGH AXIS BACK
A LITTLE FURTHER WEST VERSUS THE GFS. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TEMPS/POPS.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND SEVEN FEET ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT THE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START
TO CALM DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING FROPA/MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE PGF WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF.
HOWEVER AS THE LARGE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LATER NEXT WEEK
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IN TURN BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WHICH MAY START TO TIGHTEN UP THE PGF INCREASING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK POSSIBLE PRODUCING SCEC/MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ON AND AFTER WED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67




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VISIT...

 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 944 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN...YEILDING TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY...TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SATURDAY...

OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND RNK SHOWED A LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT WAS
STILL DRY BUT THE REST OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE THAT WAS
SATURATED...THANKS IN PART TO THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF PICKED UP THIS PRECIPITATION WELL.
HRRR AND RUC WERE BETTER WITH THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THESE
RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE INCREASED
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO AFTER 6AM/10Z. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
HAD MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE EARLY MORNING. USED
THIS TYPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH MORNING.

A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND TO THE VA/NC
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE A
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST...MORE RAIN MAY NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
NOW AND WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WE WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AXIS ALONG
A BHM-CLT-RAH-ORF LINE. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...YEILDING A LARGE SWATH OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL.
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
PWAT VALUES OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THIS BOUNDARY TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA...THUS KEEPING
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE
CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IS
BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A TIGHT N-S GRADIENT...THE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO
NEAR 3 INCHES ALONG I-40. BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL DURING AN 18 HOUR PERIOD FOCUSED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SUNSET MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL NEED FOR A FLOOD
WATCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WOULD
CERTAINLY RESULT IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES FOR THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS THERE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60 ONCE WE
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...THEN MOVE EAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE +10 TO +12C
RANGE. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY...LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING...ANY PRECIP THREAT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
SATURATED. 00Z/01 SOUNDING FROM RNK SHOWED ONLY A SMALL LAYER THAT
WAS STILL DRY. RADAR SHOWED LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
PRECIPITATION WAS NOT HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES. BETTER
FORCING AND MORE LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER
4AM/08Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAST CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR THEN IFR. DID NOT GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC IN THE TAFS AS
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. KBLF IS THE MOST LIKELY OF THE TAF SITES TO
HAVE IFR CEILINGS BY 12Z/8AM.

A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND WITH VFR TUE-THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/RCS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 949 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

DURING THE PAST COUPLE HRS...A SML AREA OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER
WRN WI IN STG FORCING IN LFQ OF ADVANCING UPR SPEED MAX AND JUST
AHEAD OF RATHER SHARP MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF. LTG DETECTION NETWORK
INDICATED SEVERAL LTG STRIKES. LOCAL MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN AREA WHERE A SML POCKET OF MUCAPES
ARND 200 J/KG WAS ANALYZED. THE FORCING WL RACE EWD ACRS THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. IT COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL LTG AS IT MOVES EAST...OR IT COULD JUST AS EASILY
WEAKEN A BIT. OPTED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT
WL CONT TO MONITOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PCPN FALLS AS
GRAUPEL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...SFC OBS STILL
INDICATE SCT PCPN BACK INTO NRN MN...SO ADJUSTED FCST TO LINGER
POPS ALL NIGHT ACRS THE N.

UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  STILL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN.  BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD IS MOVING STEADILY EAST OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...SO IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS ONCE
THE RAIN ENDS.  A RATHER POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.

TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BE PULLING OUT OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  THEN AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.  SOME MODELS
BRING PRECIP INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AND THIS WOULD BE
SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  IN GENERAL
THOUGH...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ENDING LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT.  SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE LATE OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WI.  A BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT
PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
TAKE PLACE.  SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MILD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

A SUBTLE 850 FRONT WITH TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AIR MASS OVERALL IS DRY BUT WAA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD LIGHT PCPN.
OTHERWISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
DEEPENS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR A DRY AND MILD PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

PROGS THEN DIVERT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
FRAGMENTATION TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW AND PCPN FIELDS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. COOLING H850 TEMPS ALSO INDICATE A MIX
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ONCE MID-LVL SHRTWV SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA LATER TNGT...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT THE N WL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH AT LEAST OCNL MVFR CIGS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1151 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS
LAYER IS LEADING TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THE DROPS ARE SO
SMALL AND LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT RADAR HAS A TOUGH TIME
SAMPLING THESE...WHICH IS TYPICAL IN DRIZZLE SCENARIOS. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT OUT IN TIME...SINCE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK
LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH EARLY TO MID FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

AT 3 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO DECORAH IOWA. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO A ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
PER HOUR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR WHICH KEPT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 30.03Z...THE
29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE 925 MB AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRAMATICALLY WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THERE IS A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING. THIS
AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LA CROSSE AREA. UPSTREAM OF
THIS CLEARING THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENT INVERSION
WHICH IS NEAR THE 875 MB. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THE 29.12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS INCLUDES THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLIMB INTO THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

ON SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AN UNUSUALLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 16C RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...16 TO 19C ON TUESDAY...AND 15 TO 17C ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MIXING
THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTS IN MID AND UPPER
60 TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND LOWER TO POTENTIALLY
MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-94 MAY BE IMPACTED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO KEPT THOSE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO
5F WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED THAT SOME AREAS SOME OF INTERSTATE 94
COULD APPROACH RECORDS LEVELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES /IN THE MID
70S/ ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIX DOWN THE VERY WARM AIR FROM ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES OF 1200 TO 2500 FT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KRST. ALSO...SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIMES TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOWER
CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THE
STRATUS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOK FOR RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAT SITES LATE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
WEATHER FORCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
FROM 06Z ISSUANCE...
SFC AND LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS FOR A BRIEF BKN CEILING AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS, BUT ALL IN ALL A DRY FORECAST WITH PREVAILING VFR. SW SEA
BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN AT NAPLES/KAPF AROUND 18Z. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST PEAKING IN THE
12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  75  89  75 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  87  77 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  77  88  76 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  74  89  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 329 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.

What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of sw MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.

00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.

Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECWMF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.

Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

Lower clouds continue to move across the area and should be east
of all TAF sites by 09z. Thinking is that PIA will just have
cirrus to start, SPI/BMI will see lower MVFR clouds around 1.8kft
for about an hour and then just cirrus, DEC through about 08z and
then CMI til about 09z. With all the lower level moisture around
from the rain today, believe once clouds clear, light fog is
possible at all sites. At PIA/SPI/BMI, will have the light fog in
the main body of the TAFs. At DEC and CMI, will just have TEMPO
group. With wind speeds just under 10kts, think fog will be patchy
as well, so only going with 3sm at all sites. Skies should also
become clear toward morning and last through tomorrow and into the
evening. Light fog should dissipate around 15-16z at all sites.
Winds will be less than 10kts through the TAF period and remain
westerly to southwesterly.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

Rain is quickly moving east and based on radar and observations,
rain is only in extreme eastern and southeast IL but will be gone
in next couple of hours. Small break in the clouds underneath the
higher stuff will effect the area temporarily but clouds should
remain over western parts of the area til just after midnight,
then over the eastern half of the area through early morning.
Believe light fog is also possible with where areas see some
clearing, but winds will remain just below 10mph so fog should
remain light. Will be making some adjustments to pops/wx in the
forecast and be sending out an update shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

Main shortwave was moving across southeast Iowa and northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Convection over the lower Mississippi
Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting
in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last
few hours. Back edge of the rain shield now generally along the
Illinois River, and the short-range models have been fairly
consistent with drying out most areas west of I-55 by sunset and the
eastern CWA by 10 pm. Refinements in the hourly precipitation grids
have taken this into account, and have gone with a dry forecast
after midnight.

Some concern remains with the fog potential. Latest RAP and HRRR
continues to advertise a moist layer of about 1,000 feet off the
surface underneath an inversion, and shows a rather expansive area
of dense fog mainly along and west of the Illinois River, where
rainfall from the current system has been in the 1/2 to 1 inch
range. The RAP humidity plots seem to be running a bit fast with the
clearing, as the AWIPS timing tool has the clearing line coming into
the western CWA toward 11 pm or so. If the winds stay up a bit, this
could keep the fog from getting out of hand, but have added a
mention of patchy fog for now west of I-55 after midnight. Evening
shift can make adjustments if it appears the clearing is coming in
faster than expected, which would increase the odds of fog
formation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become
progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a
zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. The faster
departure of that low to the east will help usher in much drier air
aloft. Skies should become sunny across our entire forecast area on
Sunday, but some patchy morning fog could delay that for areas
northwest of the Illinois river. There is potential for locally
dense fog around sunrise, but winds could prevent that if they
remain up late tonight. Have included patchy fog early Sunday
morning for now, to trend that into the forecast.

Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will
not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer
air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid
to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties
toward Jacksonville.

A southern stream upper level low progressing from eastern Texas
toward Virginia on Monday will push a shield of precip close to
southern IL, but we expect to remain dry as the feature departs to
the East Coast Monday night. The overall result will be upper level
ridging developing across IL by late Monday afternoon, with
rising heights and warmer temps Monday. Highs should climb into
the lower 70s in most areas.

The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Tues and Wed
under a persistent SW flow aloft and southerly surface winds.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s both days.

The long wave trough in the western states will shift east over the
Rockies on Wed night, then eject a surface low toward Illinois on
Thursday. Rain chances will increase from west to east during the
day, with likely chances of rain Thursday night into Friday, as low
pressure and a cold front pass across Illinois. Showers could linger
Friday night behind the front, but most areas should return to dry
conditions for Saturday. Much cooler air will arrive behind that
system, with temperatures returning to near normal. Temps on Friday
will be steady or falling in the afternoon as NW winds crank up.
Despite increasing sunshine on Saturday, highs should remain in the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

Lower clouds continue to move across the area and should be east
of all TAF sites by 09z. Thinking is that PIA will just have
cirrus to start, SPI/BMI will see lower MVFR clouds around 1.8kft
for about an hour and then just cirrus, DEC through about 08z and
then CMI til about 09z. With all the lower level moisture around
from the rain today, believe once clouds clear, light fog is
possible at all sites. At PIA/SPI/BMI, will have the light fog in
the main body of the TAFs. At DEC and CMI, will just have TEMPO
group. With wind speeds just under 10kts, think fog will be patchy
as well, so only going with 3sm at all sites. Skies should also
become clear toward morning and last through tomorrow and into the
evening. Light fog should dissipate around 15-16z at all sites.
Winds will be less than 10kts through the TAF period and remain
westerly to southwesterly.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 358 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.

STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS 012-015...WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL EXIST
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST
FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING THESE
LOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT NEAR THAT TIME.

SURFACE WINDS 230-260 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.

STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST QUICK BUT WARM SW
FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT...WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING. MEANWHILE LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATE SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. SUPERBLEND BLEEDS LOW CHC POPS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE....HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUPERBLEND ALSO KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015

MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE PASSING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME.

MVFR CEILINGS 012-015...WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS 006-008 AGL AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SO
EXPECTING THESE LOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT NEAR THAT TIME.

SURFACE WINDS 230-260 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JAS/CP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 154 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO
CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW
US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.

TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY
RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL
CITY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE
DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15
PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF
OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS
FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE.

THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE
CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE
FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH.

THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM
HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS
AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO
KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO
THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO
PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO
THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS AROUND 7-8KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
17Z. FROM 18Z-22Z WINDS MAY GUST 15-20KTS FROM THE WEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST BEFORE BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REDUCING SPEED
A BIT AFTER 23Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 144 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1022MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL PUSH EAST ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE
SOME QUICK MOVING RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...WHICH
LARGELY CORRELATE WITH MOISTURE AOA 700MB PER RNK/GSO 00Z/01
SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN RURAL LOCATIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AS A
WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND REACHES INTO
THE OH VALLEY...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN/LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TEND TO BECOME STEADY. LOWS GENLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS.

THE 18Z/31 GFS/NAM EACH INDICATE A DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 310K THETA
SURFACE...WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING MODEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. ADDITIONALLY 12Z/31 HIGH-RES ARW AND THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS W OF THE
BAY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LOW-END
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS AOB 0.10".
THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTN...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATE AFTN THOUGH...MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE
DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE INTO THE
CWA. THIS IS RESULTING FROM THE BEGINNING OF A NE TREK OF THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC
RANGE AFTER 3 PM OVER SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
SUN...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF I-95 TO AROUND 70 F ACRS
THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST 12Z/31 MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY AGREE ON A WET
SCENARIO FOR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-100% OVER SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT (MOST
OF THIS AFTER THE LATE EVENING HRS) AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE
GULF CST LIFTS ENE...AND 250MB JET RRQ FORCING INCREASES IN
EARNEST. AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEAR 2" OVER THE SOUTH. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 80% OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS MIN...60-70% ACRS THE
FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 2-3" OF TOTAL QPF IN NE NC AND FAR
SE VA...TO 0.50 TO 1" ACRS THE NORTH. STILL DO NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING GIVEN THIS IS A LONG TERM ~24
TO 36 HR EVENT. HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 50S W/NW...TO THE UPPER 60S
SE. GRADUAL DRYING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM FROM NW TO
SE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING FROM THE N ON
TUE...HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENRLY DRY
CONDS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG
THE MID ATLC/NE CST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK SFC WAVE OFF
THE NC CST AND THUS A LO CHANCE OF PCPN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS A DRY FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN MSTLY A
DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR SE AREAS. UPR-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THEREAFTER THRU AT
LEAST FRI...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LO/MID 70S
THUR AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRNT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STARTING OUT W/ BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10KFT...WHICH
ARE XPCD TO GRADUALLY LWR TO 5-8KFT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS. SLO SATURATION TO LWR/MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY
-RA AFT 11-14Z/01 (WHICH LIKELY LAST ABT 2-4 HRS IN MOST PLACES).
WK FNTL BNDRY AND MOISTURE AXIS SINKS SE THROUGH THE FA MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN. HAVE ADDED -RA TO KECG LTR THAN OTHER SITES (AFT
19-21Z/01). HI END MVFR CIGS LT TDA/TNGT. LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH
SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON NGT ALG STATIONARY FNT. PDS OF IFR
ALG W/ WIDESPREAD RA DEVELOPING XPCD MON/MON NGT. THE WX IS SLO TO
IMPROVE TUE W/ VFR CONDS BY LT IN THE DAY. DRY WX/VFR WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES W/ THIS FCST PACKAGE. S WNDS AVGG AOB 15 KT
ATTM...WILL CONT INTO THIS AFTN WHILE BECOMING A BIT MORE SW. WK
SFC FNTL BNDRY PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVE...STALLING JUST S OF THE WTRS TNGT. WNDS BECOMING WNW...THEN N
AFT THE BNDRY SETTLES S OF THE RGN LT TDA-TNGT (SPEEDS MNLY AOB 10
KT). SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH THE SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON
NGT...W/ WNDS OVR THE WTRS BECOMING NE. PTNTL FOR LO END SCAS AS
LO PUSHES OFF THE NC CST MON NGT W/ NE WNDS INCRSG TO 15-25
KT...MNLY FAR SRN BAY AND ATLC WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISL VA. WAVES
INVOF MOUTH OF THE BAY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT...SEAS 4-6 FT OVR THE
SRN ATLC CSTL WTRS (DUE TO THE XPCD INCRS IN NE WNDS). SINCE ANY
SCA CONDS PRIMARILY 4-5TH PDS OF FCST WILL HOLD OFF ON SCAS.
MARINE CONDS SLO TO IMPROVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB/MAS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 134 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1022MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL PUSH EAST ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE
SOME QUICK MOVING RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...WHICH
LARGELY CORRELATE WITH MOISTURE AOA 700MB PER RNK/GSO 00Z/01
SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S IN RURAL LOCATIONS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AS A
WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND REACHES INTO
THE OH VALLEY...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN/LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TEND TO BECOME STEADY. LOWS GENLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...SIMILAR TO CURRENT READINGS.

THE 18Z/31 GFS/NAM EACH INDICATE A DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 310K THETA
SURFACE...WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING MODEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. ADDITIONALLY 12Z/31 HIGH-RES ARW AND THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS W OF THE
BAY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...A PERIOD OF HIGH CHC/LOW-END
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED SUNDAY MORNING. QPF IS AOB 0.10".
THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTN...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATE AFTN THOUGH...MODELS TO A VARYING DEGREE
DEPICT INCREASING MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SW TO NE INTO THE
CWA. THIS IS RESULTING FROM THE BEGINNING OF A NE TREK OF THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC
RANGE AFTER 3 PM OVER SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
SUN...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF I-95 TO AROUND 70 F ACRS
THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST 12Z/31 MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEY AGREE ON A WET
SCENARIO FOR LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-100% OVER SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT (MOST
OF THIS AFTER THE LATE EVENING HRS) AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE
GULF CST LIFTS ENE...AND 250MB JET RRQ FORCING INCREASES IN
EARNEST. AMPLE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEAR 2" OVER THE SOUTH. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 80% OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS MIN...60-70% ACRS THE
FAR NORTH. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS 2-3" OF TOTAL QPF IN NE NC AND FAR
SE VA...TO 0.50 TO 1" ACRS THE NORTH. STILL DO NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING GIVEN THIS IS A LONG TERM ~24
TO 36 HR EVENT. HIGHS MON IN THE UPPER 50S W/NW...TO THE UPPER 60S
SE. GRADUAL DRYING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM FROM NW TO
SE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING FROM THE N ON
TUE...HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENRLY DRY
CONDS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG
THE MID ATLC/NE CST. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK SFC WAVE OFF
THE NC CST AND THUS A LO CHANCE OF PCPN...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS A DRY FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN MSTLY A
DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR SE AREAS. UPR-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THEREAFTER THRU AT
LEAST FRI...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LO/MID 70S
THUR AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRNT IMPACTS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STARTING OUT W/ BKN-OVC CIGS AOA 10KFT...WHICH
ARE XPCD TO GRADUALLY LWR TO 5-8KFT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS. SLO SATURATION TO LWR/MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY
-RA AFT 11-14Z/01 (WHICH LIKELY LAST ABT 2-4 HRS IN MOST PLACES).
WK FNTL BNDRY AND MOISTURE AXIS SINKS SE THROUGH THE FA MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN. HAVE ADDED -RA TO KECG LTR THAN OTHER SITES (AFT
19-21Z/01). HI END MVFR CIGS LT TDA/TNGT. LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH
SE STATES LT TNGT THROUGH MON NGT ALG STATIONARY FNT. PDS OF IFR
ALG W/ WIDESPREAD RA DEVELOPING XPCD MON/MON NGT. THE WX IS SLO TO
IMPROVE TUE W/ VFR CONDS BY LT IN THE DAY. DRY WX/VFR WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST. THE HI WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AFTR
MIDNITE. 10-15 KT S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN...UNTIL A TROF
OF LO PRES CROSSES THE AREA SUN NGT. MEANWHILE...SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE SE STATES SUN NGT INTO MON...WITH WINDS OVER THE
WTRS BCMG NELY. AS THE LO SLIDES S OF THE FA ERLY IN THE WEEK...THIS
WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SCA CONDS OVER AT LEAST THE SRN BAY
AND OCEAN. FOR MON/TUE...EXPECT 10-20 KT WINDS WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT
OVER THE SRN BAY...AND 15-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT OVER
CSTL WTRS. MARINE CONDS THEN IMPROVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...MAS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT
SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO
ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK
SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E
THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB.
GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER
SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND
SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG
THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS
UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT.

EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN
SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE
MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE
H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV
RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY
W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS
35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC
WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST
NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING
THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW
LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON.

TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES
ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE
CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE
W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE
E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH
GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY
FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C
FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT
850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS.

AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH
THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP
WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES.

AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND
S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE
RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL
CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO
10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE
WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE
PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA-
ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET
UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO
AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND
ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO
JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT NE OF THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT BRINGS A TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KCMX. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT TO IMPROVE TO HIGH MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT WILL BE AT
KCMX WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W
WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI
PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE
PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS
FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A
LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DRIZZLE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL SUBSTANTIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTING HEAT LOSS. RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF
3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF
THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES
EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

EXTENDED IFR EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHORT TERM CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...
GIVEN THE EARLIER PARTIAL DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS... IS ONSET OF
FOG/LIFR CIGS.

EXTENDED OVERRUNNING EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED
CHANCES OF VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT JBR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
CHANCES OF VFR SHOULD QUICKLY CLOSE DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...WITH ELEVATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND REINFORCING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST
INVERSION.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20%
CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT
OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS
THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO
THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE
10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING)
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM
500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE
584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL
FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS
WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.

THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION
WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE
RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  54  80  56  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  49  80  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  51  82  54  81 /  -    0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  51  79  54  77 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  50  79  53  78 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             79  48  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  51  80  54  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  55  79  56  80 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  52  83  56  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  53  83  55  82 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 112 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS TRACKS INTO THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BY MONDAY
MORNING THEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EST SUNDAY...

UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SW VA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE MTNS LEADING TO A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING EWD
OVER OUR FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS WITH MOISTURE
WILL BRING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO OUR MTNS BETWEEN 4AM-
8AM...MOVING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS FAVORING
THE NRN CWA DRYING OUT BY LATE MORNING...SO TRENDING LOWER ON POPS
AFTER MID MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SATURDAY EVENING...

OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND RNK SHOWED A LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT WAS
STILL DRY BUT THE REST OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE THAT WAS
SATURATED...THANKS IN PART TO THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF PICKED UP THIS PRECIPITATION WELL.
HRRR AND RUC WERE BETTER WITH THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THESE
RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE INCREASED
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO AFTER 6AM/10Z. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
HAD MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE EARLY MORNING. USED
THIS TYPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH MORNING.

A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND TO THE VA/NC
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE A
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST...MORE RAIN MAY NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
NOW AND WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WE WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AXIS ALONG
A BHM-CLT-RAH-ORF LINE. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...YIELDING A LARGE SWATH OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL.
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
PWAT VALUES OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THIS BOUNDARY TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA...THUS KEEPING
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE
CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IS
BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A TIGHT N-S GRADIENT...THE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO
NEAR 3 INCHES ALONG I-40. BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL DURING AN 18 HOUR PERIOD FOCUSED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SUNSET MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL NEED FOR A FLOOD
WATCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WOULD
CERTAINLY RESULT IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES FOR THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS THERE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60 ONCE WE
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...THEN MOVE EAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE +10 TO +12C
RANGE. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY...LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING...ANY PRECIP THREAT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP
WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WV INTO
SW VA AROUND 08-12Z. VFR FALLS TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR AT
TIMES ACROSS BLF/LWB/BCB 10-14Z. WITH WEDGE/HIGH MOVING EAST/LIGHT
WIND AT THE SFC AND A STRONGER LLJ ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT MOST
SITES...ENDING BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS.

A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF THEDAY.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LVLS DRYING UP EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT
THE SFC...ESPECIALLY FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG...THOUGH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE REMAINS WHICH COULD
KEEP FOG IN MVFR RANGE. BLF WILL BE EXCEPTION AS THINK THERE AT
LEAST IFR CIGS AFTER 23Z. LOOKS LIKE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WITH VFR TUE-
THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 146 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN...YIELDING TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY...TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SATURDAY...

OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND RNK SHOWED A LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT WAS
STILL DRY BUT THE REST OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE THAT WAS
SATURATED...THANKS IN PART TO THE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING
FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF PICKED UP THIS PRECIPITATION WELL.
HRRR AND RUC WERE BETTER WITH THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THESE
RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODELS...HAVE INCREASED
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO AFTER 6AM/10Z. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
HAD MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE EARLY MORNING. USED
THIS TYPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH MORNING.

A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY EDGING INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND TO THE VA/NC
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE A
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST...MORE RAIN MAY NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
NOW AND WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WE WILL KEEP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AXIS ALONG
A BHM-CLT-RAH-ORF LINE. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY TRACK FOR
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...YIELDING A LARGE SWATH OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL.
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
PWAT VALUES OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THIS BOUNDARY TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA...THUS KEEPING
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE
CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IS
BEING FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A TIGHT N-S GRADIENT...THE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO
NEAR 3 INCHES ALONG I-40. BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL DURING AN 18 HOUR PERIOD FOCUSED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SUNSET MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL NEED FOR A FLOOD
WATCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WOULD
CERTAINLY RESULT IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES FOR THE STREAMS AND
RIVERS THERE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 60 ONCE WE
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...THEN MOVE EAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE +10 TO +12C
RANGE. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY...LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING...ANY PRECIP THREAT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP
WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WV INTO
SW VA AROUND 08-12Z. VFR FALLS TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...WITH IFR AT
TIMES ACROSS BLF/LWB/BCB 10-14Z. WITH WEDGE/HIGH MOVING EAST/LIGHT
WIND AT THE SFC AND A STRONGER LLJ ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT MOST
SITES...ENDING BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS.

A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF THEDAY.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LVLS DRYING UP EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT
THE SFC...ESPECIALLY FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG...THOUGH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE REMAINS WHICH COULD
KEEP FOG IN MVFR RANGE. BLF WILL BE EXCEPTION AS THINK THERE AT
LEAST IFR CIGS AFTER 23Z. LOOKS LIKE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WITH VFR TUE-
THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 236 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT OCT 31 2015

VFR PREVAILS.

WYOMING TAFS...VFR PREVAILS WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL.

NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET AGL.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 510 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH BAY LATER TODAY THAT WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:49 AM PST SUNDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT VALUES BETWEEN
1.20" TO 1.60" ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
WITH THAT SAID...THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INITIAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SPEED UP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE BAY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA EARLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AS MUCH AS 1.00" OVER THE COASTAL
RANGES.

IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. IN
ADDITION...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS INLAND LATE MONDAY...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. LOCALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AS A MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE COLDER AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FALL
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...PATCHY IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING OTHERWISE
METAR OBS REPORTING VFR. INITIAL MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING S-SE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOLING
EVIDENT ON THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER AND HINTS OF COOLING SHOWING UP
ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER. 12Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION
THAT`S MORE ELEVATED.

MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL SWEEP S-SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS
BUT A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH WIND THE TERMINALS WILL
HAVE. WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS THE CLOSER WE
GET TO THE WET/WINDY WEATHER. BASED ON RECENT GFS MODEL FORECAST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS BY 06Z SUNDAY NORTH BAY THEN REACHING A
KSJC-KLVK-KSAC LINE 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT WINDS. VFR. MVFR CIGS WET WEATHER ARRIVE
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
APPROX 03Z THIS EVENING WITH GRADUALLY STEADIER RAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOCALIZED IFR DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THIS
MORNING. GENERAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z TODAY. MVFR
CIGS AS WELL AS SHOWERS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:49 AM PST SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PICK UP IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST REACHING THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
446 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet weather starts today as a Pacific storm system moves
inland. It will bring the first significant snow event of the
season to the high Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today, NorCal transitions to colder & wetter weather as a winter
storm moves inland and taps into the atmospheric river. Radar
imagery at 4 am showed a wide band of showers impacting the
Northern CA Coastal counties that is moving eastward and nearing
the Coastal range. Models all still on track with this system and
have not made any major changes to this storm`s forecast. Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect tonight through Monday night with
the brunt of the storm occurring Monday when snow levels will be
notably lower (between 5000-6000 ft). Snow amounts still look to
be 4-8 inches near pass levels with up to a foot across the
highest peaks. Earlier runs of the HRRR showed that rain wouldn`t
reach the Interstate 80 corridor until around 4 pm today. However,
the latest HRRR run indicates that a secondary band of rain could
track into the I-80 corridor by late morning while the main band
moves into far NorCal this morning. Will pass onto the day shift
to monitor the arrival timing this morning.

Daytime highs today will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for the
valley, 50s to mid 60s in higher terrain. Colder airmass expected
after midnight tonight so much of today`s precipitaton will fall
as rain.

.Previous Discussion...Snow levels will start around 9000 feet,
then dropping down to around 5000 feet on Monday. The major question
is when the snow levels will drop to 7500 feet, around the Donner
Pass level on I80 and Echo Summit on Highway 50. If it takes until
daybreak Monday, much of the precipitation may end up in the form
of rain in those areas. High mountain peaks will likely see a foot
or even more of snow. The peak snow intensity is expected Monday
morning. More showery precipitation is expected by afternoon, with
the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Snow showers may drop
to around 5000 feet, though accumulations to those levels are
expected to be light. Showers may linger over the mountains
through Tuesday into early Wednesday.

A major concern is recently burned areas (past 3 years),
especially on the west slope of the northern Sierra Nevada
Mountains, such as the Butte Fire. The main band of precipitation
could drop 1 to 3 inches on these locations. Thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon could add additional locally heavy
rain to this, though when and where these could be remains
uncertain. People living and working in those areas should be
aware of the potential for debris slides on Monday. Stayed tuned
for updates to the forecast.

Valley locations could see around 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain,
potentially more in convection. Drivers on Monday should be aware
of slick roads, especially if wet leaves are in the area.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Dry conditions are expected from Thursday through the end of the
week with high pressure ridging over the southwest U.S. A
shortwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest to the
north on Thursday will keep high temperatures down to just a
little below normal. Upper ridge then amplifies along the west
coast Friday and Saturday warming daytime highs to a little above
normal. Extended models showing possible break down of the upper
ridge by the end of the extended period as next upper trough is
forecast to start pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Northern
forecast area could see some precipitation by next Sunday while
the rest of the forecast area remains dry with near normal daytime
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...

Frontal band sagging southward into Norcal this morning. VFR Tafs
sites this morning becoming MVFR northern Sacramento valley after
18z and then MVFR southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin
after about 21z under clouds and occasional showers. Southerly
winds to 15 knots except higher over Sierra ridges.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 846 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...

HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG
THE GULF BREEZE LATER TODAY. THE HRRR AND GFS WERE TOO WIDESPREAD
WITH QPF YESTERDAY, SO CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD HANDLE WHAT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST SUN NOV 1/

AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT
ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA

MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST
PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  75  89  75 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  87  77 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  77  88  76 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  74  89  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 634 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT
ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA

MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST
PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  75  89  75 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  87  77 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  77  88  76 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  74  89  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 926 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Earlier fog has rapidly eroded over the last 1-2 hours, and the
lingering fog along I-70 has been coming up recently as well. That
area is along the fringe of the cirrus shield associated with the
southern stream shortwave, and that area should remain partly
sunny through the afternoon as clouds continue to stream
northeast. The remainder of the forecast area will be mainly
sunny, with a bit of increase in cirrus late from the northwest.

Updated forecast was sent mainly to address the end of the fog.
Hourly temperatures were adjusted as well, but the overall high
was generally on track with highs 65-70, warmest toward
Jacksonville.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.

What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of SW MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.

00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.

Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECMWF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.

Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Areas of LIFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible through
14z, especially along the I-74 corridor sites. The combination
of abundant low level moisture from yesterday`s rainfall and
a clear sky has led to some patchy dense fog at PIA and BMI
with a further expansion east and south possible over the
next few hours. Any fog should quickly dissipate between 14
and 15z as drier air advects into the region. Once that
occurs, we expect VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast
period. Surface flow will be out of the southwest at 9 to 14 kts
today with winds expected to back more into a south direction
this evening with speeds of 10 kts or less.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 514 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.

What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of sw MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.

00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.

Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECWMF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.

Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Areas of LIFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible through
14z, especially along the I-74 corridor sites. The combination
of abundant low level moisture from yesterday`s rainfall and
a clear sky has led to some patchy dense fog at PIA and BMI
with a further expansion east and south possible over the
next few hours. Any fog should quickly disspate between 14
and 15z as drier air advects into the region. Once that
occurs, we expect VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast
period. Surface flow will be out of the southwest at 9 to 14 kts
today with winds expected to back more into a south direction
this evening with speeds of 10 kts or less.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 945 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.

STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT THEN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SITES TODAY
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT KIND AND KBMG...COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF OFF AND ON MVFR STRATUS TO START OUT BUT
THEN EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z. AT KHUF AND
KLAF COULD SEE LOWER DROPS BEFORE DAYBREAK IF THEY CLEAR OUT BUT
THESE SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT LOOK FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 606 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.

STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 548 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT THEN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SITES TODAY
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT KIND AND KBMG...COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF OFF AND ON MVFR STRATUS TO START OUT BUT
THEN EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z. AT KHUF AND
KLAF COULD SEE LOWER DROPS BEFORE DAYBREAK IF THEY CLEAR OUT BUT
THESE SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT LOOK FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 413 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO
CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW
US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.

TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY
RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL
CITY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE
DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15
PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF
OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS
FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE.

THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE
CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE
FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH.

THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM
HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS
AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO
KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO
THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO
PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO
THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS MAY
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING...PARTICULARLY AT KMCK. GUSTS
18-22KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1056 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SOME DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING NEAR KJKL AND HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
NEAR LOST CREEK IN BREATHITT COUNTY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN RATHER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR THIS MOISTURE TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR IT TO OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING. CLOUDS PERSIST AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FURTHER LOWERING OF MAX T MAY BE
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LET THE GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY
RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS WELL...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...THE
BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POISED TO EXIT ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A STILL LINGERING AND STRONG LL JET SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.

UPSTREAM FOR TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW OVER TX BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE. QUITE SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING
FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGING THE DEFORMATION ZONE FAR INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY KEEPS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CONSENSUS
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BRING POPS BACK NORTH INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THERE IN LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE SHIELD OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT
DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
PRETTY EXTENSIVE ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND
RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS OFF
TO THE EAST...HAVE LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA PUTTING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A WAA SITUATION AGAIN AND AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS FOR MONDAY A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALL DEPICT AN OPENING
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THESE LATTER MODELS WAS
FAVORED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH...BUILDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS RIDGE THEN WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD KENTUCKY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST FASTEST IN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GFS
LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND UNLIKE THE MUCH SLOWER AND OUT OF SYNCH GEM.
THE GEM WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS A RESULT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS SERVICEABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
ACCORDINGLY...THE SYSTEM/S TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH WEAKENING ENERGY
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH BY THAT NIGHT AS HEIGHTS GENTLY
BOTTOM OUT BENEATH A FAIRLY FLAT TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE CR GRID
BLEND TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT PRETTY WELL.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SHEARED OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SHOWERS
DRY UP. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WARM UP EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SHOULD ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP...
BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SOUTH
OF...KENTUCKY KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BULK OF
THE AREA TO STAY DRY.

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE POPS ON SATURDAY TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINATIVE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...VISIBILITY
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...BEING UNDER PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CLOUD
COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE WITH BELOW IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT SLIGHTLY BY 00Z AS A BREAK IN BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS SETS UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
954 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015

Forecast into the afternoon hours remains on track as moisture
trapped within a shallow but steep inversion is keeping low
clouds/stratus around. Morning fog has mostly burned off per latest
observations. 01.12z ILN sounding does show a significant dry air
layer just above the inversion...and cross sections and forecast
soundings from the HRRR and other hi-res models suggest we should
begin to erode that moisture layer by afternoon, mainly across
southern IN and northern KY though there will be plenty of high
clouds around to keep skies mostly cloudy. Southern KY will probably
stay in the low clouds through the day. Despite the clouds,
temperatures are climbing and are on track to reach the mid 60s.

Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015

Updated the grids to reflect the latest T/Td/Wind trends. Will leave
mention of an isolated rain shower or a few pockets of light drizzle
in for a couple hours across our east this morning as a some light
returns still show up on radar. Will also mention some patchy fog in
a few locations for a couple hours around dawn. Removed early
morning wording from the ZFP.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Steady rain has ended across the area, however patches of drizzle
and/or very light rain showers will persist through the pre-dawn
hours in some locations. Temps will generally stay in the low and
mid 50s under heavy cloud cover before sunrise.

It will dry out today, however we`ll stay under heavy cloud cover
over the southern two thirds of the CWA. The northern third has a
shot at seeing some sun and slightly warmer temps by afternoon. Have
gone with a fairly pessimistic temp forecast across south central KY
where the heavy cloud cover and lack of advection should keep the
mercury from wandering too far. Expecting low to mid 60s there, with
mid and upper 60s north. Did want to mention that we will hang onto
a very small chance of a measurable shower near the Lake Cumberland
region as that region could stay on the very northern fringes of a
precip shield extending from the western Gulf Coast system.

Chances for light rain across our SE CWA will increase tonight as a
better surge of moisture occurs with the southern system sliding
further east. Chances will then linger into Monday as the system
opens up and begins to eject east, bringing the deeper moisture
skirting mainly to our SE. Went with a mild temp forecast overnight
under expected cloud cover and a light NE wind. Looking for upper
40s north to mid 50s south. Highs Monday should top out in the low
70s north and the upper 60s south and east under heavier cloud cover
and a continued cool light NE surface flow.

Did want to mention that the NAM seems to be an outlier with a
further north progression of the precip shield, even from its hi-res
counterparts. So, leaned away from its solution which essentially
keeps areas north of a Bowling Green to Richmond line dry.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep us dry through Thursday,
though low levels stay fairly moist so there may be a fair amount of
cloudiness, especially Wednesday and Thursday. With return surface
flow and the ridging aloft will go fairly warm with highs 70-75
Tuesday through Thursday (about ten degrees warmer than normal),
though afternoon temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much
cloud cover is realized. Lows will be in the 50s.

Late in the week an upper trof will eject northeastward out of the
Rockies, bringing a surface low from the Plains to the Great Lakes
and sweeping its attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with
the best chances still looking to be on Friday. Surface instability
looks weak with this system but it has strong dynamics associated
with it so it will still bear watching.

Models have trended drier for Friday night and Saturday as the front
swings off to the east. The air behind the front doesn`t look too
cold, with lows Saturday morning in the 40s and highs that afternoon
around 60.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 606 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Other than a few lingering pockets of light drizzle early this
morning, expect a dry forecast through this cycle. Main challenge
will be low ceilings and when each site will see improvement. All 3
sites are currently experiencing IFR ceilings and this will persist
through the morning. Winds have also gone nearly calm and seeing a
vis reduction along with the low ceilings as a result. So, expecting
MVFR vis with IFR (possibly near minimums at times) up through
around sunrise. Expecting SDF to begin to scatter out around 10 AM
EST, however not expecting a return to VFR until around Noon. LEX
will follow the same process about an hour or two later. BWG will
hold onto IFR the longest, where improvement isn`t anticipated until
mid afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through the period, and will still
have a bkn/ovc upper cloud deck when sites go VFR. Also wanted to
mention a reasonable possibility of some fog later this evening. One
limiting factor may be thick upper clouds. Will hint at it in the
TAFs for now.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 627 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT
SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO
ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK
SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E
THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB.
GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER
SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND
SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG
THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS
UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT.

EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN
SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE
MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE
H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV
RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY
W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS
35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC
WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST
NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING
THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW
LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON.

TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES
ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE
CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE
W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE
E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH
GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY
FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C
FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT
850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS.

AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH
THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP
WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES.

AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND
S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE
RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL
CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO
10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE
WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE
PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA-
ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET
UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO
AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND
ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO
JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

A STEADY/GUSTY WNW FLOW BTWN LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC AND A HI
PRES RDG ADVANCING THRU THE PLAINS WL BRING LO CLDS AND PREDOMINANT
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TODAY TO THE TAF SITES. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT IWD
AND ESPECIALLY CMX THIS MRNG WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WINDS WL
ALSO GUST UP TO 20-25KTS MUCH OF TODAY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION. ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE HI PRES RDG WL RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY
EVNG...SOME MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/SW FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF
THE DEPARTING RDG WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TNGT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APRCHG DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W
WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI
PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE
PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS
FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A
LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 832 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND BRIEF LIGHTNING.
IT SHOULD ALL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/

VFR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME LIGHT
FOG COULD FORM NEAR I-35 TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG MONDAY. DRAINAGE FLOW FROM
LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FOG FROM GETTING MUCH MORE
THAN MAINLY GROUND FOG. DAYTIME NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20%
CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT
OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS
THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO
THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE
10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING)
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM
500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE
584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL
FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS
WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.

THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION
WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE
RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  54  80  56  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  49  80  51  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  51  82  54  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  51  79  54  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  50  79  53  78 /  20  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             79  48  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  51  80  54  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  55  79  56  80 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  52  83  56  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  53  83  55  82 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 549 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/

VFR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIODS. SOME LIGHT
FOG COULD FORM NEAR I-35 TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FOG MONDAY. DRAINAGE FLOW FROM
LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FOG FROM GETTING MUCH MORE
THAN MAINLY GROUND FOG. DAYTIME NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HIGHLIGHTS WEATHER WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE IN SITU
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL BUT
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE CAPTURED IT. HAVE PLACED 20% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6AM AND CONTINUED 20%
CHANCES FOR FAR EAST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM GIVEN HRRR/RAP OUTPUT
OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL RAIN SHOULD CEASE FROM FROM EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS ACROSS
THE SOUTH EDWARDS PLATEAU CURRENTLY AND THIS LINE SHOULD PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

PWATS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S IN
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN MONDAY
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
AND TO THE EAST OF TEXAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO
THE REGION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWER END
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
SOME SIGNALS COULD POINT TOWARDS THIS RISK AS SOIL MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DEEPER MOIST AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM OVER US NOW. LOW-LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE MOISTURE LADEN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2 INCHES THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AMOUNTS PRESENT DURING THE
10/30 HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE MUCH HIGHER (I.E. LESS FOREBODING)
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. THE 10/30 EVENT HAD AROUND 576-580DM
500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WHEREAS BOTH THE GFS/EC INDICATE
584-588DM FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHICH INDICATES WEAKER OVERALL
FORCING. OVERALL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN THE 10/30 EVENT AS
WELL. ALL THAT BEING STATED...THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN 500MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HELP USHER A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION.

THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. AGAIN...GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THE 10/30 EVENT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN 585-588DM OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT BUT PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THE FRONT HAVE
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION
WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS IT STALLING OVER THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOW TO MID RANGE
RAIN CHANCES AS CONTINUAL SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY CROSS OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  54  80  56  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  49  80  51  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  51  82  54  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  51  79  54  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  84  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  50  79  53  78 /  20  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             79  48  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  51  80  54  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  55  79  56  80 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  52  83  56  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  53  83  55  82 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 411 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. STONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE MODERATE TURBULENCE
COULD BE EXPECTED FOR TAKEOFFS AND LANDINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 930 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
PERIODICALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CONTINUES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. DRY WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER IN COASTAL AREAS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO STANDARD TIME BUT ARE
SIMILAR OVER MOST INLAND AREAS. OVERALL...WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING TODAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY 70S
WITHIN ABOUT 3-5 MILES THE COAST AND 80S TO LOCALLY NEAR 90 IN THE
VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND SOME FOG SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.

THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SO-CAL LATE
MONDAY...WITH PRECIP LIKELY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
ORANGE COUNTY AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE/SBD
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE EVENING...BASED
ON DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILES. THE MOISTURE STILL ONLY GOES UP
TO ABOUT 800 MB IN MOST AREAS...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THERE
COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN MODERATE RAIN.
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE 1/4 INCH OR LESS AT THE COAST...BUT 1/2 TO
LOCALLY ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL WRF SHOWING DECENT
PRECIP IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN THAT RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS THERE. COLDER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT AS 700 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5
C...BUT...THAT WILL BE MOSTLY AFTER THE BEST MOISTURE IS HERE...SO
SNOWFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE ABOUT 6000-
6500 FEET...PROBABLY ONLY 1-2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT DUE TO THE COLD CORE...BUT AGAIN THAT WILL BE AFTER MOST OF
THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. A PERIOD OF MODERATE STRONG WINDS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING MSLP/THERMAL/HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE...WILL OCCUR FROM THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS EAST/NORTHEAST TO THE
DESERT FOOTHILLS...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE LINGERING
TUE/WED...BUT PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT THEN AND MOSTLY IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DUE TO BEST OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES AND BEST TRACK
OF THE WAVES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE THE
LOWEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH A LOT OF 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 40 AT BIG BEAR EITHER TUE OR WED. SOME 30S
COULD OCCUR IN COLDEST VALLEYS...SUCH AS RAMONA OR CORONA...STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER WED...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND WE ENTER A PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME RIDGING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL
OCCUR...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT RIDGES. TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOTHING EXTREME. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR...BUT THERMAL SUPPORT
SO FAR LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAT LOCALLY GUSTY MODERATE WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS/COASTAL FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
011730Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH INLAND BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. CIGS MAY
INITIALLY BE RELATIVELY LOW...AROUND 400-700 FT MSL...WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 2 SM OR LESS POSSIBLE AT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. VIS
WILL FALL BELOW 1/2 SM AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES APPEARS
TO BE 06Z TO 10Z. BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12Z...WITH LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING 10-25 MILES INLAND BY 14Z MONDAY. BKN-OVC CIGS NEAR
2000 FT MSL WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER DESERT
SLOPES AFTER 10Z MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED A KPSP OR KTRM.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS..SKC-FEW WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
930 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING...AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
AND GUSTS TO 34 KT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FT AND STEEP WAVES WILL ALSO
CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED ACTIVITY OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
936 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet weather starts today as a Pacific storm system moves
inland. It will bring the first significant snow event of the
season to the high Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight crew upgraded the winter storm watch to a warning early
this morning for 10 PM tonight thru 10 PM Monday for western slope
of the northern Sierra Nevada above 7000 feet. Prefrontal band of
precip dropping south across central portions of the area with
leading edge from around Blue Canyon SE to Santa Rosa. Most of
returns are elevated with only trace amounts to a few hundredths
being reported. Have adjusted POPs accordingly a little further
south this morning. Snow levels will hover around 9,000 feet for
majority of the day so most of precip will fall as rain today.
Rest of the forecast largely on track for tonight into Monday so
not expecting major changes this morning. Bulk of precip still
expected tonight into early Monday as main front moves through.
Previous discussion follows. Will have more detailed update this
afternoon. CEO

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Today, NorCal transitions to colder & wetter weather as a winter
storm moves inland and taps into the atmospheric river. Radar
imagery at 4 am showed a wide band of showers impacting the
Northern CA Coastal counties that is moving eastward and nearing
the Coastal range. Models all still on track with this system and
have not made any major changes to this storm`s forecast. Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect tonight through Monday night with
the brunt of the storm occurring Monday when snow levels will be
notably lower (between 5000-6000 ft). Snow amounts still look to
be 4-8 inches near pass levels with up to a foot across the
highest peaks. Earlier runs of the HRRR showed that rain wouldn`t
reach the Interstate 80 corridor until around 4 pm today. However,
the latest HRRR run indicates that a secondary band of rain could
track into the I-80 corridor by late morning while the main band
moves into far NorCal this morning. Will pass onto the day shift
to monitor the arrival timing this morning.

Daytime highs today will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for the
valley, 50s to mid 60s in higher terrain. Colder airmass expected
after midnight tonight so much of today`s precipitaton will fall
as rain.

Snow levels will start around 9000 feet, then dropping down to
around 5000 feet on Monday. The major question is when the snow
levels will drop to 7500 feet, around the Donner Pass level on I80
and Echo Summit on Highway 50. If it takes until daybreak Monday,
much of the precipitation may end up in the form of rain in those
areas. High mountain peaks will likely see a foot or even more of
snow. The peak snow intensity is expected Monday morning. More
showery precipitation is expected by afternoon, with the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms. Snow showers may drop to around 5000
feet, though accumulations to those levels are expected to be
light. Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday into
early Wednesday.

A major concern is recently burned areas (past 3 years),
especially on the west slope of the northern Sierra Nevada
Mountains, such as the Butte Fire. The main band of precipitation
could drop 1 to 3 inches on these locations. Thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon could add additional locally heavy
rain to this, though when and where these could be remains
uncertain. People living and working in those areas should be
aware of the potential for debris slides on Monday. Stayed tuned
for updates to the forecast.

Valley locations could see around 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain,
potentially more in convection. Drivers on Monday should be aware
of slick roads, especially if wet leaves are in the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Dry conditions are expected from Thursday through the end of the
week with high pressure ridging over the southwest U.S. A
shortwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest to the
north on Thursday will keep high temperatures down to just a
little below normal. Upper ridge then amplifies along the west
coast Friday and Saturday warming daytime highs to a little above
normal. Extended models showing possible break down of the upper
ridge by the end of the extended period as next upper trough is
forecast to start pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Northern
forecast area could see some precipitation by next Sunday while
the rest of the forecast area remains dry with near normal daytime
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...

Frontal band sagging southward into Norcal this morning. VFR Tafs
sites this morning becoming MVFR northern Sacramento valley after
18z and then MVFR southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin
after about 21z under clouds and occasional showers. Southerly
winds to 15 knots except higher over Sierra ridges.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Monday
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 1239 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.AVIATION...

E TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A W TO SW GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT APF. SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST POSSIBLY, BUT NOT NEEDED IN THE APF
TAF. LIKE THIS MORNING, BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAWN
MONDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015/

UPDATE...

HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG
THE GULF BREEZE LATER TODAY. THE HRRR AND GFS WERE TOO WIDESPREAD
WITH QPF YESTERDAY, SO CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD HANDLE WHAT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHGS TO CURRENT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST SUN NOV 1/

AVIATION...
LIGHT E/SE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
8-10 KT BY MID-MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT
ALONG GULF COAST/KAPF WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 17Z AND SHIFT WINDS TO S/SW. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER FLORIDA WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EAST COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR TO JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATE TONIGHT
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EST SUN NOV 1/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK`S END. SO AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. THUS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST
DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THERE...AS
PER THE HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS PER GFS/NAM
MOS FOR PGD. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. DENSE FOG THOUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.
/GREGORIA

MARINE... AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK...BUT STILL SPEEDS JUST
PEAKING IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  75  88 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  77  86 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  88  76  87 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  89  73  88 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...21/KM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the
upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are
approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave
across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix
out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s
across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out
from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue
over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due
to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several
hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge
axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows
some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement
all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some
better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out
this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog
mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of
I-70 to address this concern.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states
Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL
forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to
central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low
70s and light southerly winds.

By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep
trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low
level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the
development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have
increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will
continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low
cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low
70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday.

Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the
Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in
the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for
a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest
model trends

Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure
settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This
should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the
30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and
high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential
fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight and
moving northward. Not very confident with this and sunshine today
should have mixed out the moisture from the recent rain, so will
continue to hold off mentioning of this and take a closer look
before next package. Winds should be southerly to southwesterly
through the forecast period with speeds around 10kts or less.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 241 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

High clouds continue to stream across southeast Illinois due to the
upper wave across the lower Mississippi Valley, and some are
approaching from the northwest as well with a fast moving wave
across the Dakotas. In between, plenty of sunshine is helping to mix
out the atmosphere, and temperatures have reached the lower 70s
across the far southwest CWA. With the mixing and the drying out
from yesterday`s rain, currently do not think fog will be an issue
over most areas. However, the southeast CWA has not fully mixed due
to the cirrus, and the RAP, HRRR and NAM-Nest for the last several
hours have been advertising a stratus/fog deck forming over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois overnight, where a ridge
axis will keep winds very light tonight. LAMP guidance also shows
some fog in our southeast, but not as dense. The RAP`s advancement
all the way to Mattoon may be too aggressive as there`s been some
better mixing that far north, but the cirrus should be moving out
this evening as the upper wave advances. Have added some patchy fog
mention to the forecast late tonight for areas along and south of
I-70 to address this concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

A southern stream short wave will eject across the southeast states
Monday keeping precipitation off to the southeast of the central IL
forecast area while dry westerly flow brings mostly clear skies to
central IL. A warming trend will continue with highs into the low
70s and light southerly winds.

By Tuesday...a deeper southerly flow will develop ahead of a deep
trough moving through the western states...spreading increased low
level moisture into the area. This could be favorable for the
development of stratus/low clouds by Tuesday or Wednesday and have
increased clouds for this possibility. Mild temperatures will
continue, although just how warm will be modulated by amount of low
cloud cover that forms. For now, continuing highs in the low
70s...lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday-Wednesday.

Models advertising a progressive shortwave ejecting out of the
Western trough arriving Thursday night. Still some differences in
the track of the associated surface low...but enough consistency for
a good chance rainfall, and at least isolated thunderstorms given up
to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE values in recent GFS/ECMWF runs. Latest
model trends

Much colder air should return to IL next weekend as high pressure
settles over the area following the Thursday night cold front. This
should produce more sunshine, but highs in the 50s and lows into the
30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and
high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential
fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight. Could
be something to watch in case it oozes northward into central
Illinois, but abundant sunshine today should help mix out the
moisture from the recent rain, so will hold off on any mention
this far north for now.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Geelhart



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Earlier fog has rapidly eroded over the last 1-2 hours, and the
lingering fog along I-70 has been coming up recently as well. That
area is along the fringe of the cirrus shield associated with the
southern stream shortwave, and that area should remain partly
sunny through the afternoon as clouds continue to stream
northeast. The remainder of the forecast area will be mainly
sunny, with a bit of increase in cirrus late from the northwest.

Updated forecast was sent mainly to address the end of the fog.
Hourly temperatures were adjusted as well, but the overall high
was generally on track with highs 65-70, warmest toward
Jacksonville.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

The upper level wave that produced the rainfall across central
Illinois on Saturday has shifted off to our east early this morning.
Latest surface map indicates somewhat drier air advecting east into
the region with dew points mainly in the lower 40s to our west. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus clouds and
lower vsbys developing over the next couple of hours across west
central thru south central Illinois where the winds are forecast to
be lighter this morning. That, combined with the moisture from the
rainfall will lead to some patchy fog thru about 8 am over parts
of the forecast area. RAP forecast soundings showing the potential
for some shallow ground fog forming as well, especially over our
southwest counties early this morning.

What fog/low clouds we do see should dissipate between 8 and 9 am
with a sunny sky expected for the rest of the day except over
southeast Illinois where they will be closer to a southern stream
wave resulting in some high cloud cover drifting across the area
thru the afternoon. Most short term model forecast soundings
indicate temps should rapidly warm later this morning into the
afternoon hours with most areas seeing the mercury climb into the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Another nice stretch of fall weather is in store for central and
southeast IL through mid week as dry and mild conditions prevail
through Thu. A southern stream short wave ejecting northeast across
the southeast States tonight and Monday will keep its showers
southeast of the Ohio river, but some high clouds to push into
southeast IL tonight and Monday morning. Weak 1015 mb surface
high pressure over the Ozarks of SW MO to move into WV this
evening and give south winds less than 10 mph tonight, with lows
in the mid 40s. Highs Monday in the lower 70s with south winds up
to around 10 mph.

00Z forecast models continue to show upper level ridging into IL by
sunset Monday and building across the Eastern States Tue/Wed while
upper level trof digging over the Western States. Increasing
southerly flow Tue/Wed to bring mild low to mid 70s to the region
and look to be a bit shy of record highs for central IL which are
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Models are bringing low level
moisture/clouds northward into southeast IL by sunset Tuesday and
across eastern IL Tue night and Wed. So could be more cloud cover
around on Wed especially eastern IL, though low clouds look more
prevalent over IN/KY during that time.

Forecast models have slowed down arrival of qpf on Thu and now only
a slight chance of showers west of highway 51 by Thu afternoon and
mild highs in the lower 70s, except upper 60s far nw by Galesburg.
00Z GEM appears too slow with cold front and leaned toward more
similar 00Z ECMWF and GFS models bring cold front east across IL
later Thu night and Friday morning with showers likely. Could be an
isolated thunderstorm Thu night over central IL and over southeast
IL Fri morning with shallow CAPE profiles.

Much colder air returns to IL next weekend despite more sunshine,
with highs in the 50s on Sat/Sun and lows in the low to mid 30s
Saturday night as high pressure settles over IL/IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

Not much concern over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions and
high clouds at times. Latest RAP model suggests potential
fog/stratus development across southern Illinois overnight. Could
be something to watch in case it oozes northward into central
Illinois, but abundant sunshine today should help mix out the
moisture from the recent rain, so will hold off on any mention
this far north for now.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 245 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.

STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THURSDAY WILL BE OUR LAST WARM AND DRY DAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HAVE
ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOST AREAS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE EURO INDICATES CAPES UP TO 400 J/KG.  COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY TOO...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING
AND THEN DRY AND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE NEW EURO INDICATES PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
LATE DAY 7.  BUT OTHER MODELS ARE DRY AND WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS AND
KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.

STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY COOLING TO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS IN
THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING AND COOLING TO THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MAINLY VFR. BUT BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MAY KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR.   EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT KBMG AND KHUF...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH UP TO 5 KNOTS MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CLEARING SPREADING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 07Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS HOWEVER MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE 975-950MB LAYER TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVERTOP
OF THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT
THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINK
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND TRYING TO
SCOUR THE STRATUS OUT TOO QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
HINTING AT THE INVERSION REMAINING STOUT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THEREAFTER.

STRATUS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO A CU FIELD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW. THIN CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS WITH MOISTURE SURGING ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

TEMPS...STILL FEEL THE MAVMOS IN PARTICULAR IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH WARMING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW THE MIXING LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 2000-2500FT THIS AFTERNOON. UNDERCUT MAV BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. NOT A BAD START TO
NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE BRING DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THAN PERIODIC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS...LOOKING LIKE THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST START TO NOVEMBER
SINCE 2008 AS HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS A MOS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTED LOW LEVEL THERMALS
WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE RECORD AT INDY. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM THE 40S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE LONG
TERM BEGINS. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF. PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE THE SAME BUT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN
THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MAINLY VFR. BUT BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MAY KEEP HIGH CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR.   EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT KBMG AND KHUF...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH UP TO 5 KNOTS MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1121 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO
CLOSED UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
THE SECOND OVER TEXAS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW
US AND INTO SW KANSAS. W-NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.

TODAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. A FEW MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES/WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER..OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY
RECOVERS TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80F AT MCCOOK/HILL
CITY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DUE TO INCREASED TDS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WESTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE
DUE TO BETTER MIXING/DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE/MIXED LAYER TDS AND THIS AGAIN WOULD BE LIMITED
TO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN THE CORRELATION OF 15
PERCENT RH AND GUSTY WINDS FOR 3HR IS LIMITED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LAST HALF
OF THIS WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE FLOW HAS
FLATTENED SOME BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE.

THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH. HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE...WITH SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART OPEN. THE
CANADIAN WAS THE SLOWEST WITH A CLOSED OFF 700 MB CENTER AND WAS AN
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS WAS THE
FASTEST AND THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK IN BOTH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTH.

THE OUTPUT ALSO HAD SOME JET LIFT AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LEAD/PRELIMINARY SHORTWAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM
HAS TO WORK WITH. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS
AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A LOT MORE QPF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER AND HAS LITTLE TO NO QPF. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS USUALLY MEANS MORE OF A DRY AIR MASS. SO
KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THE NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A SMALL AREA. IF SOMEHOW THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS RATHER STRONG...MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME THE BLEND GAVE ME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO
THEM. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. SO BELIEVE NO
PRECIPITATION AND NO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO CONFINED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING/DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SO
THE INIT POPS LOOK GOOD HERE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE
WARMER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD LOOKS COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK AS ZONAL FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
546 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.

For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.

For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result.  The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through.  High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year.  As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs.  These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs.  Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s.  Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday.  Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada.  A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side.  There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.

Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 545 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Low clouds have hung on at KBWG, but are south of the SDF/LEX
corridor. With weak overrunning in the low levels expect these
clouds to remain near KBWG for most of this period...dropping again
into the IFR range overnight and into the morning hours Monday. A
concern for the SDF/LEX corridor toward daybreak is fog, as
temp/dewpoint spreads are low at this time. Sky cover should be thin
enough to allow for some cooling, but latest RAP shows a thin band
of clouds that could move across that corridor before daybreak,
short-circuiting the chance for fog. Given how narrow the band looks
to be, cannot pull fog chances out of the TAFs, but did make it a
tempo group at SDF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 318 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE REGION WAS UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US CANADIAN
BORDER. A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WHILE A
CLOSED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN TX. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING BY IN SW FLOW ABOVE. THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS STILL
OCCURRING ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

THE THE PERIOD...THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ERODING ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO END THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A SFC
WAVE WILL TRACK BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL GET
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE NO
FURTHER NORTHWEST AND THE 12Z NAM SHARPENING UP THE GRADIENT ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE 12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ALTHOUGH THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING A BIT HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OPTED TO SHARPEN
UP THE GRADIENT IN POPS FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH LEFT THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...AND GENERALLY
KEPT THE I 64 CORRIDOR NORTH DRY. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD EXPERIENCE FOG
FORMATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

WE WILL BE LOCKED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LOCALLY.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE BY
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW SO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS QUICKLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WAITING TO BE ENERGIZED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PROLONG...OR REDEVELOP...RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
HANG ONTO A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS LED TO SOME SMALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SOUTHERN 4 TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR WAS OBSERVED FURTHER NORTHWEST AT SYM. OUTSIDE
OF SOME CHANCES FOR FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AT SYM...MAINLY VFR SHOULD
PERSIST. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS DRY OUT ALL BUT VERY NEAR THE SURFACE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...SO SOME DENSE FOG
OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. BY AROUND 15Z...CIGS SHOULD
AVERAGE MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
split flow, with a closed low over Texas and southwest flow out
ahead while the northern stream tracked across the Upper Midwest to
New England. At the surface, low clouds/stratus have hung on south
of the KY parkways where deeper moisture resides within a stubborn
inversion. To the north along the Ohio River and into southern
Indiana, drier air advecting in have allowed the low clouds to
scatter out giving some filtered sunshine. Readings were in the
60s across the area.

For this evening and tonight, the southern stream system will track
from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas and for most folks, it will be
a dry night. There is a slight chance of showers across far
southern/southeast Kentucky but the trend in the forecast guidance
is for this system to stay further away. Plan on a mild night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The other concern is for patchy
fog, especially along and north of the KY parkways where the high
clouds may push out toward sunrise. Combined with light/variable
winds in the boundary layer, there could be a narrow band of fog
that develops. Hi-res models such as the NSSL WRF, WRF ARW/NMM, HRRR
and RAP all show this happening after 06z. The setup seems favorable
if the clouds clear out so something to watch more closely this
evening.

For Monday, plan on seasonably warm conditions as the region stays
in between weather system. Highs look to top out in the low 70s and
sky cover will range from mostly sunny across southern Indiana to
mostly cloudy across southern Kentucky.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

The first part of the long term period will be dry and unseasonably
warm Tues-Thurs as a strong ridge moves through the Ohio Valley.
Have trended temps upward toward MOS guidance during the day and GEM
guidance at night as a result.  The warmest day looks to be on Tues
under mostly sunny skies as the peak of the upper level ridge axis
moves through.  High temps should be in the range of 72-78 degrees
Tues afternoon which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year.  As we enter return flow on the back side of the upper ridge,
moisture will increase and models indicate a low level cloud deck
should hang over the area Wed/Thurs.  These clouds should limit
heating resulting in highs mainly in the lower 70s both Wed and
Thurs.  Lows each night will get progressively warmer for mid week.
Tues night lows will be coolest with less cloud cover/insulation, so
lows should range through the 50s.  Then warming to mid to upper 50s
for Wed night and upper 50s/lower 60s for Thurs night.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive for the end of the
week mainly on Thurs night/Friday.  Confidence is low on the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough and resultant cyclogenesis as
it moves NE through the central U.S. into southern Canada.  A
stronger shortwave and faster cyclogenesis as the 12Z ECMWF/GEM
depict would allow for better convection and precip to our west and
lesser precip chances/QPF for the Ohio Valley as the energy from the
low pressure system becomes detached from better Gulf moisture.
However, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles depict a weaker/flatter soln
which would produce numerous showers/storms Thur night/Fri with some
of the storms potentially being on the strong side.  There is a
slight preference toward the first soln, but will continue to take a
middle of the road approach until models settle on a clear evolution.

Either way, temps cool off behind the cold front into the 50s for
highs for the weekend and into early next week with lows dropping
back into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf and a stubborn low-level
inversion is keeping IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings in place at BWG while
SDF/LEX lie on the fringe of this boundary and as of 17z, have begun
to lift/scatter out some. Very dry air is above this inversion, so
there is above average confidence that SDF/LEX will remain out of
the low clouds through the aftenoon.

Main concern is fog potential tonight as guidance trends toward a
narrow band of fog forming on the northern edge of the high cloud
shield. Where exactly this sets up remains uncertain though pretty
much all of the guidance hints at it. The boundary layer conditions
look favorable for fog as well, with light winds and plenty of
residual moisture in place. Trended the TAFs toward this scenario.
If it looks like the high clouds will be east of SDF/LEX overnight,
then IFR or worse conditions will be possible. At BWG, plan on low-
end or IFR conditions through the period, dropping to near LIFR
overnight as moisture continues to pool within the low-level
inversion.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZBT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 115 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. AN AREA OF DRIZZLE IS STILL INDICATED SOUTHEAST OF JKL
AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSED THE AREA LAST
NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE 60S IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHILE
LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE LINGER IN THE 50S. THE PREVIOUS MAX T OF
MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH AND LOW 60S GENERALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SFC LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE REGION...MAINLY NEARER TO THE VA BORDER TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY ON MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

SOME DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING NEAR KJKL AND HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
NEAR LOST CREEK IN BREATHITT COUNTY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN RATHER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR ON AND OFF FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR THIS MOISTURE TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR IT TO OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE DRIZZLE IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING. CLOUDS PERSIST AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND FURTHER LOWERING OF MAX T MAY BE
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LET THE GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE AN AREA OF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY
RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS WELL...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...THE
BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POISED TO EXIT ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A STILL LINGERING AND STRONG LL JET SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.

UPSTREAM FOR TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW OVER TX BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIAN RANGE. QUITE SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING
FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGING THE DEFORMATION ZONE FAR INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY KEEPS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CONSENSUS
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BRING POPS BACK NORTH INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THERE IN LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE SHIELD OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT
DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
PRETTY EXTENSIVE ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY UNIFORM BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND
RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS OFF
TO THE EAST...HAVE LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA PUTTING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A WAA SITUATION AGAIN AND AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS FOR MONDAY A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALL DEPICT AN OPENING
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST AND
WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THESE LATTER MODELS WAS
FAVORED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH...BUILDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS RIDGE THEN WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD KENTUCKY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST FASTEST IN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GFS
LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND UNLIKE THE MUCH SLOWER AND OUT OF SYNCH GEM.
THE GEM WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS A RESULT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS SERVICEABLE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
ACCORDINGLY...THE SYSTEM/S TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH WEAKENING ENERGY
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH BY THAT NIGHT AS HEIGHTS GENTLY
BOTTOM OUT BENEATH A FAIRLY FLAT TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE CR GRID
BLEND TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT PRETTY WELL.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SHEARED OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SHOWERS
DRY UP. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE PICTURE
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES AT
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WARM UP EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SHOULD ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP...
BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SOUTH
OF...KENTUCKY KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BULK OF
THE AREA TO STAY DRY.

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE POPS ON SATURDAY TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINATIVE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS LED TO SOME SMALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SOUTHERN 4 TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR WAS OBSERVED FURTHER NORTHWEST AT SYM. OUTSIDE
OF SOME CHANCES FOR FOG 6Z TO 13Z...AT SYM...MAINLY VFR SHOULD
PERSIST. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS DRY OUT ALL BUT VERY NEAR THE SURFACE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES...SO SOME DENSE FOG
OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. BY AROUND 15Z...CIGS SHOULD
AVERAGE MVFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1217 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 953 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015

Forecast into the afternoon hours remains on track as moisture
trapped within a shallow but steep inversion is keeping low
clouds/stratus around. Morning fog has mostly burned off per latest
observations. 01.12z ILN sounding does show a significant dry air
layer just above the inversion...and cross sections and forecast
soundings from the HRRR and other hi-res models suggest we should
begin to erode that moisture layer by afternoon, mainly across
southern IN and northern KY though there will be plenty of high
clouds around to keep skies mostly cloudy. Southern KY will probably
stay in the low clouds through the day. Despite the clouds,
temperatures are climbing and are on track to reach the mid 60s.

Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2015

Updated the grids to reflect the latest T/Td/Wind trends. Will leave
mention of an isolated rain shower or a few pockets of light drizzle
in for a couple hours across our east this morning as a some light
returns still show up on radar. Will also mention some patchy fog in
a few locations for a couple hours around dawn. Removed early
morning wording from the ZFP.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Steady rain has ended across the area, however patches of drizzle
and/or very light rain showers will persist through the pre-dawn
hours in some locations. Temps will generally stay in the low and
mid 50s under heavy cloud cover before sunrise.

It will dry out today, however we`ll stay under heavy cloud cover
over the southern two thirds of the CWA. The northern third has a
shot at seeing some sun and slightly warmer temps by afternoon. Have
gone with a fairly pessimistic temp forecast across south central KY
where the heavy cloud cover and lack of advection should keep the
mercury from wandering too far. Expecting low to mid 60s there, with
mid and upper 60s north. Did want to mention that we will hang onto
a very small chance of a measurable shower near the Lake Cumberland
region as that region could stay on the very northern fringes of a
precip shield extending from the western Gulf Coast system.

Chances for light rain across our SE CWA will increase tonight as a
better surge of moisture occurs with the southern system sliding
further east. Chances will then linger into Monday as the system
opens up and begins to eject east, bringing the deeper moisture
skirting mainly to our SE. Went with a mild temp forecast overnight
under expected cloud cover and a light NE wind. Looking for upper
40s north to mid 50s south. Highs Monday should top out in the low
70s north and the upper 60s south and east under heavier cloud cover
and a continued cool light NE surface flow.

Did want to mention that the NAM seems to be an outlier with a
further north progression of the precip shield, even from its hi-res
counterparts. So, leaned away from its solution which essentially
keeps areas north of a Bowling Green to Richmond line dry.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep us dry through Thursday,
though low levels stay fairly moist so there may be a fair amount of
cloudiness, especially Wednesday and Thursday. With return surface
flow and the ridging aloft will go fairly warm with highs 70-75
Tuesday through Thursday (about ten degrees warmer than normal),
though afternoon temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much
cloud cover is realized. Lows will be in the 50s.

Late in the week an upper trof will eject northeastward out of the
Rockies, bringing a surface low from the Plains to the Great Lakes
and sweeping its attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with
the best chances still looking to be on Friday. Surface instability
looks weak with this system but it has strong dynamics associated
with it so it will still bear watching.

Models have trended drier for Friday night and Saturday as the front
swings off to the east. The air behind the front doesn`t look too
cold, with lows Saturday morning in the 40s and highs that afternoon
around 60.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2015

Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf and a stubborn low-level
inversion is keeping IFR/low-end MVFR ceilings in place at BWG while
SDF/LEX lie on the fringe of this boundary and as of 17z, have begun
to lift/scatter out some. Very dry air is above this inversion, so
there is above average confidence that SDF/LEX will remain out of
the low clouds through the aftenoon.

Main concern is fog potential tonight as guidance trends toward a
narrow band of fog forming on the northern edge of the high cloud
shield. Where exactly this sets up remains uncertain though pretty
much all of the guidance hints at it. The boundary layer conditions
look favorable for fog as well, with light winds and plenty of
residual moisture in place. Trended the TAFs toward this scenario.
If it looks like the high clouds will be east of SDF/LEX overnight,
then IFR or worse conditions will be possible. At BWG, plan on low-
end or IFR conditions through the period, dropping to near LIFR
overnight as moisture continues to pool within the low-level
inversion.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1233 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT
SHRTWV SLIDING THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO
ARND 100M. AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPER
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF LK
SUP/ERN UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER
THE SW HALF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS MOVING E
THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF A SHARP SFC LO PRES TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER MOIST PROFILE SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB.
GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THIS TROF IN WRN MN AHEAD OF RATHER
SHARP PRES RISE CENTER UNDER THE SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL
DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DYNAMICS...A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLDS AND
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES LINGER THRU NW MN IN RATHER SHARP CYC FLOW ARND
SFC LO PRES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV AND MOVING E ALONG
THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. SKIES DO CLR FARTHER TO THE W IN THE DAKOTAS
UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB
TRAILING THE SHRTWV. BUT MORE MID/HI CLDS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY E
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG...WINDS INTO THIS AFTN...AND CLDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS THRU TNGT.

EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...EXPECT AREA OF MORE NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
ERN CWA TO EXIT BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME...BUT AS LO PRES TROF IN MN
SHIFTS TO THE E...AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS WILL DVLP OVER THE W AND BE
MOST NMRS IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A GREATER UPSLOPE FLOW. SINCE THE
H85 TEMPS IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS ARE NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 2C...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SGNFT LK EFFECT IMPACT. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
MOVE TO THE E BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LLVL W WIND COMPONENT TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND MODELS SHOW DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF SHRTWV
RDG AXIS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING EVEN THE ERN CWA BY ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY
W WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG PRES RISE CENTER WL ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
ABSENCE OF SGNFT CAA AND H925 WINDS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25-30KTS WL
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS TO NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30 TO PERHAPS
35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SINCE THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SC
WL LINGER WITH LCL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST
NEAR H85. BUT AS THE TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS MOVES IN FM THE W DURING
THE AFTN AND THE LLVL FLOW TURNS ACYC...THE LO CLDS WL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE AFTN FM THE SW. BUT MAINLY CLDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THRU THE DAY OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
BUT SOME OF THE MID/HI CLDS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL
ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS
IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE WNW
LLVL FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE AND THERE MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE BY MID AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REBOUND TO ARND 6C BY 00Z MON.

TNGT...ALTHOUGH LO CLDS WL BREAK UP W-E AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES
ACRS THE AREA...AREA OF MID/HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOCLDY SKIES. SOME OF THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE
CWATNGT. BUT FCST SDNGS INDICATE THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY...SO
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. SOME OF THE THE COMBINATION OF THESE
CLDS AND STEADY SW FLOW UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
HI PRES RDG SHIFTING TO THE E AND LOWER PRES TO THE NW WL RESTRICT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE
W...WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS THE THICKER CLDS WL PASS TO THE
E OF THAT AREA OVERNGT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH
GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY
FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C
FAR W AT THE END OF EXITING MOISTURE...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT
850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS.

AT 12Z MONDAY WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WITH ZONAL TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF IN OUR WEAK SW FLOW DID TRY TO BRING IN A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR 0.25 IN OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY...AS THE BROAD SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH
THE W HALF OF ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND HUDSON BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE NOT BACKED BY THE GFS PRECIP
WISE...THERE ARE HINTS BY THE LATEST NAM THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING. WILL AT LEAST INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE N TIER COUNTIES.

AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR W FROM ID THROUGH NV AND
S CA...THE RESPONSE FOR THE E HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE A SIZABLE
RIDGE DEVELOPING AND ABOVE NORMAL/DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI. LOOK FOR
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF UPPER MI FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON...AS THE W TROUGH NEARS THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL
CANADA...AND PRECIP NEARS. THE SFC LOW ACROSS WY/CO/UT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS JUMP UP TO
10-14C ON 35-40KT 850MB WINDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 60S FOR HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE
WITH THIS ONE...AS THE PULL FROM THE GULF IS ONLY STARTING TO TAKE
PLACE WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS MN AND S MANITOBA-
ONTARIO AT 00Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
850MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -2C FAR W FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CONSTANT 500MB TROUGH SET
UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH CO
AND NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE -5C TEMPS AT 850MB SLIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON W-NW WINDS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND
ANOTHER LOW SHIFTING FROM THE S PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NE TO
JUST SW OF LAKE MI BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER THE TAF SITES TO
START THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECT THEM TO TRANSITION TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN
PERIODS OF VFR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE IS ENOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO CONTINUE THAT AS THE PREVAILING VALUES WITH
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS. ONCE THE MVFR CLOUDS DEPART...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS A VCSH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

AS A LO PRES IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING MOVES INTO QUEBEC TODAY...W
WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HI
PRES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS RIDGE
PASSES TO THE E TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND INTO ONTARIO ON MON...SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL PASS ON MON NIGHT...CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THRU TUE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST ENE WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER THE W HALF...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE THIS
FLOW. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S 20-25 KTS BY WED TO THE E OF A
LO TRACKING THRU MN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 929 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED S THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESSURE
RISES WERE CREATING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATED WINDS
TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS. WINDS LOOKED LESS GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING E OF KBIL ON RADAR
AS WELL AS OVER KLVM AND COOKE CITY. THE SHOWERS OVER THE E WERE
THE RESULT OF FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE 700 MB FRONT MOVING S
THROUGH THE AREA. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
ALMOST 200 J/KG OF CAPE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TODAY.
SHORTWAVES...UPSLOPE FLOW AND A GOOD PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WERE
PRODUCING THE WESTERN SHOWERS. THE WHOLE AREA OF MOISTURE WAS
SINKING S ON SATELLITE AND WAS SUPPORTED BY NEW MODELS. DID ADD
LOW POPS FROM KBIL E AND S TODAY...SHIFTING THEM S THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER POPS OVER KLVM AND THE SW MOUNTAINS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE.
LOWERED MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON WEB CAMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S. ADJUSTED TONIGHT/S WINDS TO MAKE THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH ADJLAV GUIDANCE. MIXING SUPPORTED TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS.

QUICK GLANCE AT NEW GFS FOR THE STORM SYSTEM SHOWED MORE OF A SE
DRY SLOT THAN BEFORE. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE WHOLE NEW PACKAGE
OF DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

FOR TODAY...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA UNDER MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MONDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING MOISTURE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA RANGES. AT THIS
POINT THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH MAINLY A WET
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE REAL ACTION STARTS ON MONDAY. SINGER


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EURO WERE QUITE SIMILAR... BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH EXISTING THE SFC LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED THAN
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED... ESPECIALLY IN THE EURO...  SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST TO FIT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

DAYS 2 THRU 8... THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK WAS LOCATED OFF THE BC COAST PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W MON
NIGHT... WITH INCREASING POPS BEGINNING IN THE W MOUNTAINS. SW
FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA MON NIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH BECOMES
BROADER OVER THE REGION AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER S ID BY
TUESDAY MORNING... A FEATURE SLIGHTLY MORE APPARENT IN THE EURO.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK SW TO NE INTO SW MT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF 300MB JET DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION... STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA
INTO TUE EVENING. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT
MOVES E TUE EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NW EARLY WED
AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES TO THE NE FROM CENTRAL WY TO N SD AND
FILLS... BRINING THE COLDER AIR WITH A STRONGER PUSH TO S. GOOD
MOISTURE WAS STILL FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE
ABOVE...THERE WAS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIPITATION EVENT MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WED...
ESPECIALLY IN SE MT AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.

THE ZERO DEGREE C 850 MB LINE REMAINS N OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
NIGHT. DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL HELP SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN. THE 850 MB ZERO LINE THEN
SINKS S INTO THE AREA ON TUE...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED RAIN/SNOW
MIX. THIS SUBFREEZING SFC AIR REACHES KBIL BY TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE EURO BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING IN THE GFS. TIMING OF THIS
COLD AIR SURGE WILL BE CRITICAL TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOW
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CREATED BY THE ABOVE FACTORS WILL
ULTIMATELY FALL AS SNOW... GIVEN THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FURTHER
COOL TUE NIGHT AND WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON... AND EVEN LATER IN THE GFS GIVEN LATER PUSH OF COLD
AIR. SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVING
PRECIPITATION... A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF BUT NOT AS HIGH OF
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN QUESTIONS ON HOW THE DYNAMICS
WILL PLAY OUT...AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO BE LIKELY IN THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE COMING FORECAST AS
THE WAVE COMING ONSHORE BEGINS TO BE SAMPLED BY RAWINSONDE DATA.

MODELS SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT
WITH RIDGING TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN MOUNTAINS... REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLOWLY UPWARD AFTER COLDEST TEMPS WED TO
LOW 50S BY SUN. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH A HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 038/051 035/041 028/038 022/041 026/043 026/047
    2/W 26/W    88/W    84/W    11/B    12/W    10/B
LVM 059 033/046 030/038 024/035 021/038 025/041 024/045
    5/W 36/W    98/W    85/J    11/B    22/W    11/B
HDN 064 035/054 033/043 029/039 022/044 025/046 025/051
    2/W 26/W    87/W    86/W    11/B    12/W    11/U
MLS 066 037/055 037/044 030/039 024/045 025/044 026/050
    2/W 31/E    87/W    75/W    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 065 037/056 036/049 032/041 025/048 027/048 027/055
    2/W 26/W    76/W    64/W    11/B    11/B    11/U
BHK 064 034/054 035/045 028/039 022/044 022/043 023/049
    0/N 21/B    87/W    65/W    11/B    11/B    11/U
SHR 065 034/053 031/045 028/040 021/046 024/047 024/054
    2/W 26/W    77/W    74/W    11/B    12/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1103 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS IS RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE U.S.. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...HOWEVER...IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH
OF TN AND THE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE IS TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE CSV AREA AFT 00Z.
OTW...IFR CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TX. ASSOCIATED PVA IS WELL SOUTH
AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THUS...SFC LOW IS FAR TO OUR SOUTH
AS WELL. THIS HAS ACTED TO KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH OF
TN...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT ON RADAR TODAY. LATEST HRRR DOES WANT
TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODEL QPF...OTHER THAN THE EURO...KEEPS THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
OTW...TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO PROVIDE AN UPWARD TWEAK
LATER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE MID-STATE, PRODUCING MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  58  70  54 /  20  50  50  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  55  70  52 /  20  40  40  10
CROSSVILLE     66  57  64  54 /  30  70  70  20
COLUMBIA       68  57  70  53 /  20  60  50  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  57  70  55 /  30  60  50  10
WAVERLY        67  56  70  53 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1021 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TX. ASSOCIATED PVA IS WELL SOUTH
AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THUS...SFC LOW IS FAR TO OUR SOUTH
AS WELL. THIS HAS ACTED TO KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH OF
TN...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT ON RADAR TODAY. LATEST HRRR DOES WANT
TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODEL QPF...OTHER THAN THE EURO...KEEPS THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
OTW...TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO PROVIDE AN UPWARD TWEAK
LATER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE MID-STATE, PRODUCING MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  58  70  54 /  20  50  50  10
CLARKSVILLE    67  55  70  52 /  20  40  40  10
CROSSVILLE     66  57  64  54 /  30  70  70  20
COLUMBIA       68  57  70  53 /  20  60  50  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  57  70  55 /  30  60  50  10
WAVERLY        67  56  70  53 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 339 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STILL SOME DEEP MOISTURE HAVE
SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SE TEXAS TODAY.
UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DRY SLOT HAS NOT MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD TRENDS
HOLDING ONTO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO KEEP UP WITH THOSE TRENDS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TIMING OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD
FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN OVERALL WET PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS IS STILL FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS NOT MUCH SLOWER BUT
ENOUGH FOR SOME DIFFERENCES. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS NEXT SUNDAY.

IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO TALK IMPACTS BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...HOPEFULLY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS YET AGAIN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
DETERMINE THESE DETAILS AND IMPACTS OF THE FORECAST.

39

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTN HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN PREV-
IOUSLY THOUGHT AND DID ADJUST THEM SOME WITH THE UPDATE. WILL LIKELY
KEEP WITH THIS TREND TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW HELPING
TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHTENED JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST A
BIT UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMOR-
ROW AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS/DECREASED SEAS. SELY
WINDS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE MON...THE PERSISTING THRU
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION...

PCPN HANGING AROUND SE TX TODAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE STATE. THE IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE ERO-
DED SOME BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
WRAPAROUND THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW (AS IT TRACKS TO THE E/NE). NOT
A LOT OF CLEARING UNTIL PERHAPS TOMORROW AFTN. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  76  58  78  61 /  20  10   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  76  59  78  62 /  30  10   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  74  67  74  69 /  30  10   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.  LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON AREA RADARS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  A FEW REPORTS OF THESE LIGHT
RETURNS REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN MN.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES ARE CLEARING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI.
THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  A BLANKET OF
MID-CLOUDS IS INCOMING HOWEVER...AND WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD
LATER TODAY.  LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING IN AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT STEEP...BUT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LIGHT QPF
DEPICTED IN THE MESOMODELS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH.  BEST TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BETWEEN 03-
09Z.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
PLENTY OF LOW VSBYS PROJECTED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY CHUGGING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.  CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE NORTH THOUGH.  SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE
SUNSHINE WILL BRING UP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH AND
UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A MILD DRY PERIOD TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE EACH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COULD BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH CLOSE TO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...BUT THIS IS NOVEMBER.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THE LATER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THE LATER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERT ON AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER TROUGH FRAGMENTS INTO SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE A 120 KT UPPER JET PARALLELS THE FRONT. LFQ
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL WORK WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE ARE TOWARD FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS A MORE WEST WITH
THE FRONT AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE SLIDING OVER THE
FRONT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY WITH SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES...OTHERWISE A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  ALTHOUGH THIS IS
GETTING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER HEIGHTS AGAIN
BUILD FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF NOVEMBER FOR POSSIBLE RETURN TO
MILDER WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI.  THEN AS LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...BKN TO
OVC MID CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A SMALL CHANCE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD
FALL OUT OF THESE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WI TONIGHT...INCLUDING
RHI...SO INCLUDED A VICINTY SHOWER FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1232 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

WINDS WERE RAMPING UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AND BORDEAUX...SO EXTENDED THE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 3 PM. LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 55 TO 60 MPH
RANGE...BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 10000 TO 15000 FEET AGL.

THROUGH 01Z...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS AT
RAWLINS...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...AND 23 TO 33 KNOTS AT CHADRON...
ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS EVENING. PLEASE WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF
AND LANDING...AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR AND TO THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1028 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING WINDS TODAY.
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH. MODELS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS
HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS FROM 2 AM MST TO 7 AM MST
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THESE WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT MODELS SHOW A
LAYER OF 55 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE 700MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE NEW HRRR AND SHORT TERM CONSENSUS MODELS. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TOO BE AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF I80 NEAR ARLINGTON WILL REMAIN
VERY WINDY INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IMPACTS AS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALL SHOW THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NW WYOMING BY TONIGHT AND
THEN STALLING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER POP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER CARBON AND WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES. INCREASED
POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE
EXTENDED. FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH POP AMOUNTS AND AREAS.

STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GFS SHOWING SPLITTING ENERGY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CHEYENNE CWFA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...IS SHOWING SOME
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ECMWF INDICATING
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THUS...OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THIS WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. DO HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF DOES SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 10000 TO 15000 FEET AGL.

THROUGH 01Z...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 KNOTS AT
RAWLINS...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...AND 23 TO 33 KNOTS AT CHADRON...
ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS EVENING. PLEASE WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF
AND LANDING...AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR AND TO THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COLD
AND CLOUDY WEATHER BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MILD AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT