Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/31/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TUCSON AZ
500 AM MST THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO OUR GRIDS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
SHARPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IR IMAGERY REVEALS AN ENHANCED
BAND OF GRADUALLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH
CENTRAL PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES WHICH APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS/WIND SHIFT PER RECENT RAP ANALYSES.
THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS EXPANDING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
AS FAR AS OUR FORECAST IS CONCERNED...CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INITIAL FOCUS FROM
ROUGHLY EAST AND NORTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700 MB TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THEN...AS THE LARGER
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HEIGHTS WILL FALL QUICKLY AND THE HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AMIDST THE BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS AROUND THIS TIME...BUT ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THEM REMAINING ABOVE 8500 FEET OR
SO WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS SUPPORTING GENERALLY ONE TO FOUR INCH
AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...ANTICIPATING A FAIRLY
QUICK WEST-TO-EAST DRYING TREND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THIS
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH...MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST TO MORE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT NOTE THAT THIS MAY
STILL BE A BIT TOO SLOW.
FAIRLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...FREEZING OR NEAR-
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN IN OUR FAVORED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE TO COLDEST
NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SATURDAY AND MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...ALBEIT VERY BRIEFLY. BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND TUESDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY
EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WEST OF
KTUS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 8K-12K
FT MSL. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 10-16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
417 AM MST THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
SHARPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IR IMAGERY REVEALS AN ENHANCED
BAND OF GRADUALLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH
CENTRAL PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES WHICH APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS/WIND SHIFT PER RECENT RAP ANALYSES.
THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS EXPANDING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
AS FAR AS OUR FORECAST IS CONCERNED...CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INITIAL FOCUS FROM
ROUGHLY EAST AND NORTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700 MB TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THEN...AS THE LARGER
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HEIGHTS WILL FALL QUICKLY AND THE HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AMIDST THE BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS AROUND THIS TIME...BUT ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THEM REMAINING ABOVE 8500 FEET OR
SO WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS SUPPORTING GENERALLY ONE TO FOUR INCH
AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...ANTICIPATING A FAIRLY
QUICK WEST-TO-EAST DRYING TREND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THIS
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH...MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST TO MORE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT NOTE THAT THIS MAY
STILL BE A BIT TOO SLOW.
FAIRLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...FREEZING OR NEAR-
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN IN OUR FAVORED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE TO COLDEST
NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SATURDAY AND MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...ALBEIT VERY BRIEFLY. BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND TUESDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY
EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WEST OF
KTUS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 8K-12K
FT MSL. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 10-16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
327 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEAR PERFECT ZONAL MID FLOW PATTERN CURRENTY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING OLD SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE TO HAVE SAGGED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA OR EVEN THE FAR NORTHERN KEYS. THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO IT WOULD SEEM TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE THUS LOWERED THE POPS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE HRRR ALSO DOES NOT GET VERY EXCITED OTHER
THAN MOSTLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY EVEN FURTHER SO SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD KEEPING A
LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES WILL BE LESSENING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES DUE TO THE WANING
MOON. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY IF REPORTS AT HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING DICTATE.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BUT REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING IT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL IN A WEAKENING STATE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SHOWS IT STALLING
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS NEXT WEEK,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TYPICALLY, THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON
ARRIVES BETWEEN MID AND LATE NOVEMBER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGN
OF THAT HAPPENING JUST YET. BUT, GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT
AND AFTER ALL IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES, THE WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEAS OF GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 86 76 87 / 30 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 85 75 86 / 20 30 40 30
MIAMI 74 87 75 87 / 20 30 30 30
NAPLES 71 86 73 88 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....60/BD/AA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Broad cyclonic flow continuing this afternoon around the low
departing eastern Ontario, as a surface trough rotates southeast
through the Great Lakes. Cloud shield has covered most of the
forecast area north of I-70, but last few frames of the visible
satellite loop suggest it may not reach much further. RAP humidity
plots do show a bit more progress though, and will keep skies partly
cloudy across the southeast CWA this evening. Over the remainder of
the forecast area, a clearing trend should start from the southwest
this evening, but have lingered the cloud cover over the northeast
CWA much of the night. Little change needed in low temperatures,
which should bottom out a couple degrees either side of 35.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
High pressure expected to build back into the Midwest tonight,
eventually eroding the clouds towards morning with lighter winds.
Ridge axis moves over the region tomorrow, with some variability to
the lighter winds and sunny, highs warmer than today into the upper
50s. Deep upper low over the southern states moving out across the
country as another upper low and developing low pressure system
moves across the southern border of Canada...bringing rain for the
end of the week. Starting in the west Friday evening and spreading
across the region for all day Saturday. Halloween day expected to
be rather wet and gray...but should be coming to an end from west to
east later in the night. At this point, the timing looks to show
some clearing nw of the Illinois River Valley around 6-7pm. Expect
timing to become more finely tuned in the next few forecasts.
Beyond the weekend and into next week, the Midwest becomes largely
dominated by a high pressure ridge just to the east, keeping the
area dry for the most part, with a warming trend. Southwesterly
flow aloft and 850 mb temps climbing to 15-16C by Tuesday, and highs
once again well above seasonal norms, in the upper 60s/lower 70s
through Wed/Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MVFR cloud deck has reached the KSPI-KCMI corridor at midday. Some
modest rise in ceiling heights is expected with time, but
widespread MVFR ceilings will remain in place into the evening.
Have kept the cloud heights down at KBMI/KCMI much of the night,
but areas further west should see improving conditions by 06Z.
Gusty west winds to around 25 knots will quickly decrease around
23Z. Winds will become light and variable overnight as high
pressure drifts overhead, then become more southerly Friday
morning on the back side of the high.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Stratocumulus deck continues to sink southward this morning, with
the leading edge roughly from Quincy to Lincoln to Watseka. RAP
model humidity guidance suggesting this could make it as far south
as about I-70, before a clearing push begins from the southwest
late this afternoon. Winds already gusting up to near 30 mph in
much of the CWA, with the HRRR showing the gustiness lasting
through mid afternoon before some tapering begins.
Existing forecast was largely on track and only required some
minor tweaks. The worded forecasts were updated to reflect the
latest sky trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Unseasonably deep 521dm 500mb low continues to spin over Lake
Michigan this morning, while a significant vorticity max rotates
southward around the parent low across Minnesota. Low cloudiness
associated with the vort lobe will gradually spill southward today,
impacting the northern half of the KILX CWA. NAM 1000-850mb RH
field is handling the current cloud cover quite well, so will follow
this parameter closely for the sky cover forecast today. As a
result, am expecting mostly clear skies across the board at dawn
with overcast conditions developing along/north of the I-74 corridor
toward midday into the afternoon hours. Will also be a windy day as
pressure gradient between low over the Great Lakes and high building
into the Plains remains tight. Forecast soundings and numeric
guidance both suggest sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts to
between 25 and 30mph at times. Due to continued CAA, high
temperatures will remain well below normal...with readings ranging
from the upper 40s far north where cloud cover will be prevalent to
the middle 50s along/south of I-70 where skies will remain sunny.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
High pressure will build into the Midwest tonight, providing
clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will dip into
the lower to middle 30s. After a sunny/cool day on Friday with
highs mainly in the 50s, an approaching northern stream short-wave
will spread clouds and showers back into the area Friday night into
Saturday. Models are in good agreement with the timing of this
feature and the overall QPF...with rainfall totals generally around
half an inch. Given presence of an initially dry airmass associated
with the departing high, will continue to keep Friday evening dry.
However, as stronger upper dynamics approach from the west and
mid/low-level airmass moistens, will introduce likely PoPs
along/west of I-55 and chance PoPs further east across the remainder
of the CWA after midnight. Best rain chances are still on target
for Saturday, when widespread showers are expected. Upper wave is
progressive and will quickly push off to the east Saturday night.
Will linger showers into Saturday evening, but will dry things out
from west to east overnight.
Models have come into better agreement concerning evolution and
track of upper low initially in place over the Desert Southwest this
weekend. Previous runs had shown a highly amplified closed low, but
the 00z Oct 29 model suite now indicates a much weaker open feature
that ejects eastward more quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF take this
wave into the Tennessee River Valley Sunday night into Monday,
keeping any precip well S/SE of Illinois. Meanwhile, the GEM
continues to be the odd model out by bringing the wave much further
north and spreading rain into the CWA on Monday. Given clear trend
toward a weaker/faster/more southern solution, have rejected the GEM
in favor of the GFS/ECMWF consensus. As such, have gone with a dry
forecast Sunday through Tuesday with a steady warming trend. As has
been the case for the past several days, models continue to show
rising upper heights across the region early next week. 850mb temps
on both the GFS and ECMWF are progged to reach the 14-16C range by
Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting highs into the 70s. GFS tries to
bring moisture northward in the WAA regime as early as Wednesday,
but think this is too aggressive, especially given the fact that the
ECMWF holds any precip off until Friday at the earliest. As a
result, will continue the dry forecast through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MVFR cloud deck has reached the KSPI-KCMI corridor at midday. Some
modest rise in ceiling heights is expected with time, but
widespread MVFR ceilings will remain in place into the evening.
Have kept the cloud heights down at KBMI/KCMI much of the night,
but areas further west should see improving conditions by 06Z.
Gusty west winds to around 25 knots will quickly decrease around
23Z. Winds will become light and variable overnight as high
pressure drifts overhead, then become more southerly Friday
morning on the back side of the high.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
952 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Stratocumulus deck continues to sink southward this morning, with
the leading edge roughly from Quincy to Lincoln to Watseka. RAP
model humidity guidance suggesting this could make it as far south
as about I-70, before a clearing push begins from the southwest
late this afternoon. Winds already gusting up to near 30 mph in
much of the CWA, with the HRRR showing the gustiness lasting
through mid afternoon before some tapering begins.
Existing forecast was largely on track and only required some
minor tweaks. The worded forecasts were updated to reflect the
latest sky trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Unseasonably deep 521dm 500mb low continues to spin over Lake
Michigan this morning, while a significant vorticity max rotates
southward around the parent low across Minnesota. Low cloudiness
associated with the vort lobe will gradually spill southward today,
impacting the northern half of the KILX CWA. NAM 1000-850mb RH
field is handling the current cloud cover quite well, so will follow
this parameter closely for the sky cover forecast today. As a
result, am expecting mostly clear skies across the board at dawn
with overcast conditions developing along/north of the I-74 corridor
toward midday into the afternoon hours. Will also be a windy day as
pressure gradient between low over the Great Lakes and high building
into the Plains remains tight. Forecast soundings and numeric
guidance both suggest sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts to
between 25 and 30mph at times. Due to continued CAA, high
temperatures will remain well below normal...with readings ranging
from the upper 40s far north where cloud cover will be prevalent to
the middle 50s along/south of I-70 where skies will remain sunny.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
High pressure will build into the Midwest tonight, providing
clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will dip into
the lower to middle 30s. After a sunny/cool day on Friday with
highs mainly in the 50s, an approaching northern stream short-wave
will spread clouds and showers back into the area Friday night into
Saturday. Models are in good agreement with the timing of this
feature and the overall QPF...with rainfall totals generally around
half an inch. Given presence of an initially dry airmass associated
with the departing high, will continue to keep Friday evening dry.
However, as stronger upper dynamics approach from the west and
mid/low-level airmass moistens, will introduce likely PoPs
along/west of I-55 and chance PoPs further east across the remainder
of the CWA after midnight. Best rain chances are still on target
for Saturday, when widespread showers are expected. Upper wave is
progressive and will quickly push off to the east Saturday night.
Will linger showers into Saturday evening, but will dry things out
from west to east overnight.
Models have come into better agreement concerning evolution and
track of upper low initially in place over the Desert Southwest this
weekend. Previous runs had shown a highly amplified closed low, but
the 00z Oct 29 model suite now indicates a much weaker open feature
that ejects eastward more quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF take this
wave into the Tennessee River Valley Sunday night into Monday,
keeping any precip well S/SE of Illinois. Meanwhile, the GEM
continues to be the odd model out by bringing the wave much further
north and spreading rain into the CWA on Monday. Given clear trend
toward a weaker/faster/more southern solution, have rejected the GEM
in favor of the GFS/ECMWF consensus. As such, have gone with a dry
forecast Sunday through Tuesday with a steady warming trend. As has
been the case for the past several days, models continue to show
rising upper heights across the region early next week. 850mb temps
on both the GFS and ECMWF are progged to reach the 14-16C range by
Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting highs into the 70s. GFS tries to
bring moisture northward in the WAA regime as early as Wednesday,
but think this is too aggressive, especially given the fact that the
ECMWF holds any precip off until Friday at the earliest. As a
result, will continue the dry forecast through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Mostly clear skies with steady WSW winds 12-15 kts across central
IL terminals this morning. An area of low cloud over northern
IL/eastern IA containing primarily MVFR ceilings is spreading
southeastward and will begin to affect central IL terminals
starting 14Z-16Z through most of the day. Winds associated with
this feature will bring W winds 15-20 kts and gusts 24 to 28 kts
through most of the late morning and afternoon. High pressure
building into the region late in the day will cause winds to
decrease and cloud cover to decrease after 00Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
159 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHOWERS HAVE EXPANDED INTO A BROKEN LINE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS
SUCH...WENT UP TO LIKELY POPS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE ACTUALLY DECOUPLED THANKS TO
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL BACK IN
UPSTREAM. DID UP THE LOWS A TOUCH BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AS THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
POPPED UP FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS SCHEDULED...GIVEN THE DIMINISHMENT OF INSTABILITY. ALSO ALIGNED
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER DROP OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES/BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A FEW EMBEDDED ENHANCED ECHOES AS
WELL. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AGAIN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH IT WILL THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL RETURN. SEEING SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS LINE OF THINKING FROM
THE HRRR AS WELL. BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
AT UPPER LEVELS...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS STILL A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEMS EXIT
MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD FROM TX
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN. RAIN WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER DRIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY BUT THEN BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PROBABLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO VA BY AROUND 14Z...LEAVING US WITH
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
114 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOAKING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WHILE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF MAINE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...AS EXPECTED, WE`RE SEEING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
STEADY RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED AS WELL SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS EXITED INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE,
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. SEE THE
TIDE/COASTAL SECTION FOR AN UPDATE ON THE CURRENT THOUGHT
OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WE`RE
SEEING SOME BREAKS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE
60S. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY. THERE`S STILL PLENTY OF WIND AVAILABLE OFF THE
SURFACE FOR MIXING...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CLOSELY AS
THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS BASED ON
VERIFICATION LAST FOUR PERIODS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TERM WILL BE THE WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY W/NW
WINDS KICKING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V W/MOISTURE
LIMITED BETWEEN 850-700MBS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES WIND GUST
POTENTIAL OF 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY W/THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE AVAILABLE EARLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING IN THE BLYR, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, DECIDED
TO BUMP THE GUSTS FOR FRIDAY. CAA UNDERWAY COMBINED W/THE WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FOR A COLD DAY W/DAYTIME MAXES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL AND AND
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. WINDS LOOK LIKE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR. THIS IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW THE MID
20WS AS IT LOOKS ATTM.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE S ON
SATURDAY W/A CONTINUED CHILLY AIRMASS. DAYTIME MAXES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
W/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TERM.
HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFF TO THE E ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND A ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CWA
AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. DECIDED TO BRING POPS UP TO 70% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(40-50%) FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD
END AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS FORECAST ON MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE S OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY W/DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TODAY THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR ON SUNDAY W/SOME SHRA
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP GALE WARNING IN PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWARD.THIS
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WILL BE
BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT TOWARDS EVENING. EXPECT MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 18 FEET/10-12 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL WITH WAVE WATCH III
FORCING TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
W/NW WINDS KICKING IN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT W/GUSTS TO
AROUND 30. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS ON FRIDAY
W/THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY W/WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20S KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING BACK BELOW 6 FT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY W/WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND WAVES DROPPING
OFF BELOW 3 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
105 PM UPDATE...HIGH TIDE HAS ARRIVED AND WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN MACHIAS AND SOME OVERWASH ON SEAWALL
ROAD. THE BANGOR RIVER GAGE APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND REMAINED
BELOW 11 FT. WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY GOING FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE WARRANTED BEYOND
THAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE COINCIDENCE
OF SPRING TIDE WITH STORM SURGE AND LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES
RESULTING FROM ONGOING STORM SYSTEM. NEXT HIGH TIDE AT 12:33 PM
TODAY STILL APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH LARGEST AND LONGEST PERIOD
WAVES WITH OFF-SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 16 AND 20 FEET AND
PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS. WAVES APPROACHING COAST NOW EXPECTED
TO TO TOP OFF AT AROUND 15 FEET. EXPECT OVERTOPPING AT DEER ISLE
CAUSEWAY... SEAWALL ROAD... SCHOODIC POINT... WINTER HARBOR NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY. ALSO STRONG WIND FORCING ACROSS
PENOBSCOT AND MACHIAS BAYS COMBINED WITH SPRING TIDE COULD RESULT
IN TIDAL FLOODING IN MACHIAS AND BANGOR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
938 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOAKING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WHILE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF MAINE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE...CURRENT HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE TIDAL/COASTAL SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. OTHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH WINDS,
ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
MORE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD AT WORST REMAIN
STEADY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS. WE HAVE ALSO HAD REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES AND SOME
TREES/BRANCHES DOWN. THE HIGH WIND WARNING THEREFORE REMAINS IN
EFFECT. OTHERWISE, THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MAINLY EXITED OUR AREA,
ALTHOUGH DOWNEAST CONTINUES TO SEE A BATCH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THIS RAIN, THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END AS THE BULK OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO
CANADA.
EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER,
MAINLY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SOME SUN COULD EVEN BREAK THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. THE
CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IF WE
CAN GET SOME CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH
DEWPOINTS 55-60 OR SO. AS SUCH, EXPECT WE COULD SEE CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT; INDEED, THE HRRR SHOWS A SQUALL LINE CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE
PASSED, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF FLOW ALOFT FOR WINDS TO MIX
DOWN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS BASED ON
VERIFICATION LAST FOUR PERIODS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TERM WILL BE THE WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY W/NW
WINDS KICKING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V W/MOISTURE
LIMITED BETWEEN 850-700MBS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES WIND GUST
POTENTIAL OF 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY W/THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE AVAILABLE EARLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING IN THE BLYR, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, DECIDED
TO BUMP THE GUSTS FOR FRIDAY. CAA UNDERWAY COMBINED W/THE WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FOR A COLD DAY W/DAYTIME MAXES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL AND AND
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. WINDS LOOK LIKE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR. THIS IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW THE MID
20WS AS IT LOOKS ATTM.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE S ON
SATURDAY W/A CONTINUED CHILLY AIRMASS. DAYTIME MAXES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
W/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TERM.
HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFF TO THE E ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND A ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CWA
AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. DECIDED TO BRING POPS UP TO 70% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(40-50%) FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD
END AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS FORECAST ON MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE S OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY W/DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TODAY THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR ON SUNDAY W/SOME SHRA
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP GALE WARNING IN PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWARD.THIS
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WILL BE
BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT TOWARDS EVENING. EXPECT MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 18 FEET/10-12 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL WITH WAVE WATCH III
FORCING TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
W/NW WINDS KICKING IN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT W/GUSTS TO
AROUND 30. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS ON FRIDAY
W/THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY W/WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20S KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING BACK BELOW 6 FT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY W/WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND WAVES DROPPING
OFF BELOW 3 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
935 AM UPDATE...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE CUTLER TIDAL GAGE TO WATCH
FOR CHANGES IN EXPECTED STORM SURGE. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A
ONE-FOOT SURGE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME WATER TO COME INTO THE
MACIAS TOWN OFFICE PARKING LOT AND NEARBY AREAS, BUT SHOULD NOT
THREATEN BUILDINGS. HOWEVER, IF A STRONGER SURGE STARTS TO APPEAR
LIKELY, STRUCTURES COULD BE THREATENED AND WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THE ADVISORY. WE WILL ALSO MONITOR THE BANGOR RIVER GAGE CLOSELY
AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY THEN,
BUT STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN THE
USUAL LOW-LYING SPOTS DOWNTOWN. THE RIVER GAGE MAY OR MAY NOT GO
ABOVE FLOOD...IT DID NOT LAST TIME...SO THIS WILL DICTATE WHAT
SORT OF FLOOD PRODUCT WE WILL ISSUE, SHOULD ONE BE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE COINCIDENCE
OF SPRING TIDE WITH STORM SURGE AND LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES
RESULTING FROM ONGOING STORM SYSTEM. NEXT HIGH TIDE AT 12:33 PM
TODAY STILL APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH LARGEST AND LONGEST PERIOD
WAVES WITH OFF-SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 16 AND 20 FEET AND
PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS. WAVES APPROACHING COAST NOW EXPECTED
TO TO TOP OFF AT AROUND 15 FEET. EXPECT OVERTOPPING AT DEER ISLE
CAUSEWAY... SEAWALL ROAD... SCHOODIC POINT... WINTER HARBOR NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY. ALSO STRONG WIND FORCING ACROSS
PENOBSCOT AND MACHIAS BAYS COMBINED WITH SPRING TIDE COULD RESULT
IN TIDAL FLOODING IN MACHIAS AND BANGOR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
WET AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN PERSISTENT. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...ELSEWHERE IT WILL DRY
OUT...WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING. AFTER A DRY FRIDAY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY. AFTER A COOL PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD WARM TO 60 TO 65 FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TOUCH UP WIND GUSTS AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES NORTH/SOUTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 131...PLOWING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS
OF 40+ MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOW REMAIN IN PLACE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MIDDAY. 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR SUSTAINED WINDS INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. A FEW POWER OUTAGES
HAVE SHOWN UP ON THE CONSUMERS PAGE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE AS GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
BRING DOWN DEAD LIMBS ONTO POWER LINES.
AS FOR THE PRECIP HAVE 80+ PCT POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP GENERATION WILL ROLL INTO FULL SWING. DELTA T/S BY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 18C WITH A LAKE TEMP OF 13C AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C. HAVE OPTED TO THROW IN THE MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN INTERIOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT -5C SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH AND THE HRRR PRECIP TYPE AGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG
VORT COMES IN WITH IT SUPPLYING LIFT...SO THE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WE WILL ALSO SEE H8 TEMPS PLUNGE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...WE WILL STAY WET. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE
EXITS.
IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND RAW THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 45 TO 50
WITH A STRONG WIND. BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
LAKESHORE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT AND STILL HIGHLIGHT
40 MPH GUSTS...AND 35 MPH INLAND. THE HIGHER WINDS KICK IN TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL FINALLY END. SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN 30S FOR LOWS.
DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD RETURN OVER THE NW CWA LATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
THE MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS FORECASTED
TO OPEN UP AS IS TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SOME OF IT/S
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. A
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO ADVECT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL WAVE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL
THEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY NEARING THE MI/IN BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ZONAL BEHIND THIS DEPARTING WAVE. THIS
MEANS A WARM UP FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD SHOULD END UP WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...WHICH MAY OFFSET THE DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS I KEPT VALUES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOW REDEVELOPING WITH THE COLDER AIR
COMING IN OVER THE LAKE. WE EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS
OVER CENTRAL AND NRN WISCONSIN ROTATE IN ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS
ALONG WITH SOME BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE AFTER 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY
LAST MOST OF THE DAY...BEFORE THE LOWER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT TO THE NE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN
AFTER 21-22Z.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE W/SW TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
LIKELY. THESE WILL TAIL OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE GALE WARNING THE ONLY
HEADLINE OUT NOW. GALES ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTS AT THE MOMENT IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. WAVES SHOULD PEAK
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 10-15 FOOT RANGE. MANY OF THE NEARSHORE
BUOYS...SOUTH HAVEN...BRIDGMAN AND PORT SHELDON WERE PULLED FOR
THE SEASON IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MID LAKE BUOY CURRENTLY HAS 7
FOOTERS AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WAS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ANYWAY HAS UNDERPERFORMED THUS FAR. TOTALS HAVE
MOSTLY BEEN BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER END
TOTALS CONFINED TO JACKSON COUNTY. THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON DID
SPIKE TO 10.15 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT HAS FALLEN SINCE. BANKFULL IS
13 FEET.
AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FROM SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THIS DOES NOT
POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND WE
REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST/DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.
SO...THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING AROUND DARK. DRIZZLE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN WI.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...SO WINDS WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS MOST THE FA. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...THE MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW STRATUS TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE THE SURFACE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH.
WITH THAT...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE TEMPS.
TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECTING PRECIP TO START BREAKING
OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z-00Z...BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TOMORROW NIGHT /WHICH IS DISCUSSED
FURTHER IN THE LONG TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION/.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW MN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN WESTERN WISC FRIDAY EVENING...
ENDING IN WESTERN WISC SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
FROM THE WNW WILL BRING A CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.
FOR FRIDAY EVENING...MODEST STRENGTH MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE SW
STATES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NEWD AND SIDESWIPING MN/WI. GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WISC FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WNW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WISC. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STARVED FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SMALLER POPS ARE IN ORDER AS FAR SOUTH AS EAST CENTRAL MN AND
MOST OF OUR WISCONSIN AREA...THIS IS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
NEXT LITTLE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WNW LOOKS MUCH TO WEAK TO
RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS. THIS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ON
MONDAY...AND MODELS POINT TO A BROAD AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MN/WI. THUS WILL NEED TO HOLD TO MAX
TEMPS FOR MONDAY THAT ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HOWEVER...LARGE WESTERN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD...WITH PART OF THE ENERGY SINKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD AREA OF SW UPPER FLOW HEADING
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TUE-WED. AS
THIS OCCURS.. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD... AND A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SUGGEST MORE
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WE CAN EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAF PACKAGE
WAS TO DELAY THE VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOMORROW...MEANING THE
STRATUS WILL LINGER A COUPLE EXTRA HOURS. TAFS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
WITH THE LATEST THINKING. FOR NOW...CONTINUED MVFR IN THE
EAST...AND IFR IN THE WEST WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DROPPING BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IS A
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED. WILL START
SEEING SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS IN WESTERN MN OVERNIGHT...AND
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE HEELS OF THIS STRATUS
DECK.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL KEEP THE CEILING
ABOVE 017 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE RAP...HRRR...AND GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS AGREEMENT WITH THE TAF...JUST ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING TO LIFT THE CEILING CLOSE TO 020-025 AND HOLD IT
THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN IT WILL LIKELY FALL BACK BELOW 017.
FINALLY GO VFR TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
CLOSER TO 15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...VFR/-SHRA LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WIND S-SW 10KTS.
SAT...CHC MORNING MVFR/SHRA. VFR AFTN. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND WEST BECMG SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1002 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH RAIN AND WIND AS YESTERDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR
TO THAT...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MANY AREAS WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIST THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 958 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TO MATCH
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND POPS. BLENDED IN MODEL REFLECTIVITY INTO
POP FORECAST TO DOWNPLAY SHOWERS IN VERMONT THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND TIME NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. BTV4 LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR HAD GOOD CONSENSUS
AND REASONABLE TIMING SO USED THEM.
OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING IN PART OF FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK FOR STRONGER WINDS...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...IN
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST NY.
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON AND SUFFICIENT
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850 MILLIBAR JET
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...SO WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MILE PER HOUR RANGE
WILL BE COMMON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWER TO
LINGER THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S AND
MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BY SATURDAY CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE WARM AND COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS WET AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...LACKING
THE MOISTURE SOURCE. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING DURING THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS MAIN AREA
OF RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z...THEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND
19Z. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TO THE
NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL TREND
CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THOSE
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 434 AM EDT THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY WILL ALL FOR STRONGER WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AND WAVES BUILDING TO 3 FEET. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS AND WAVES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT BOATING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR SELECTED SITES ON THURSDAY (10/29)
KBTV 71/1946
KMPV 70/1989
K1V4 74/1971
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON
MARINE...EVENSON
CLIMATE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A A S/W AND
ITS ATTENDANT SFC FRONT HAVE ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 1
CORRIDOR. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHERE SKIES ARE BROKEN-
OVERCAST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CONVERSELY
WHERE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S WERE COMMON...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SE.
IN SPITE OF THE LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED
CONVERGENCE...LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS STILL
DEPICTS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. CAM AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS
VERIFYING TOO WET AT 18Z...AND THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTING ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TRAVERSING CENTRAL
NC WEST-TO EAST THIS EVENING. BASED ON BEST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION INTO
OUR SW COUNTIES...PLAN TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES...AND EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS. PLAN TO MAINTAIN
MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH.
S/W AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE SFC
FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST-EAST COMMENCING IN THE WEST
AROUND 9 PM...AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
VARY FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE WHERE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS UP COMPARED TO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MID-UPPER 60S. WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN OUR
VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EXPECTED WITH MID
30S PROBABLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
SFC AND S/W RIDGE DRIFT EWD SATURDAY...INITIATING A RETURN FLOW
REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL NC. INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
COUPLED WITH AN APPROACH OF A S/W WILL INCREASE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE REGION BY SUNSET. ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT/OPAQUENESS OF HIGH
CLOUDS. CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS WILL BE STARTING NEAR 40-LOWER
40S...AN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUDS
COULD DETER TEMP RECOVERY. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 5-
6 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OF LOW-MID 60S WEST TO
MID-UPPER 60S EAST. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MILDER AIR
MASS ENVELOPING THE REGION. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...
RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL FURTHER PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG WITH ITS SFC
WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES
ACROSS. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST GFS PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD
VALID DURING SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE WAVE...ALONG WITH THE NOSE
OF A 50+ KT LLJ COUPLED WITH 50+ KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...ALL
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THAT TIME. THERE`S
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE PATTERN TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY
WORTH KEEPING TABS ON AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEN ON MONDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...THEN
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND S/W RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. FAIR WEATHER THEN EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIF
AIRMASS CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES VARYING BETWEEN 4000-8000FT. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES....ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 64...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR KFAY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUR REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL USHER A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC...ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD LAST
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST-SW SUNDAY AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS/26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
319 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
ISSUE TONIGHT IS CLOUD TRENDS. FOR THE MOST FOLLOWED THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND OF THE HRRR MODEL ITS 925 MB RH FIELD. IT SHOWS THE
MAIN CLEARING WAITING TIL 06Z OR LATER TO REACH THE RRV. THAT SAID
THERE IS A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS NOW APPEARING QUITE QUICKLY
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO COOPERSTOWN. THIS CLOUD AREA MAY CLEAR OUT
MORE AND THIS MAY ACCELERATE CLEARING A LOT FASTER THAN CURRENT
GRIDS HAVE. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN TEMPS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
FOR LOWS AS WELL. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SOUTH OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA. KEPT THE AREA DRY WITH MODELS
INDICATING PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MILD ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WORK IN
BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES/SFC LOWS WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTL BORDER
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE FAST MOVING AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...BEST CHANCE
MIDDAY SATURDAY NE ND AND AFTN IN NW MN. THEN ANOTHER CHC SUNDAY.
BOTH AREA PRETTY LIGHT EVENTS. QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH HIGHS LOWER
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH WHERE SOME SUN IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES SHOW PCPN OVER THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD...WITH PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN...BUT THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN
SCENARIO ATTM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL HEADING INTO NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
FINALLY MOVES E. DRYING IS INDICATED IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING FROM THE DVL BASIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THRU
THE PERIOD...THUS TIMED THE CHANGES IN THE TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND BECOME SRLY ACROSS THE AREA BY 12-15Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLOUDS HOLDING STRONG WITH CLEARING LIKELY TIED TO NEAR THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS. PER HRRR THE LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS INTO THE NIGHT WITH
CLEARING PSBLY INTO PARTS OF THE RRV MORE TOWARD 06Z. CLOUDS AND
TEMP GRIDS LOOKING GOOD SO NO FURTHER CHANGES FOR THIS AFTN PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
THE LATEST EVENT IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE SHIFTING TO HOW FAST CLOUDS MAY ERODE TODAY. AS FOR NOW
IT REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. RADAR STILL
SHOWS SOME WEAKER ECHOES OVER THE FAR EAST AND SE. 925MB TEMPS
THERE ARE ABOVE ZERO AND SFC TEMPS ARE CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND
40F...SO WILL KEEP PCPN TYPE IN LIQUID FORM UNTIL DAYBREAK WHEN
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ABOUT DONE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL HOLD UP
THRU THE MORNING AND FINALLY BEGIN TO RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A TOUGH CALL BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF CLOUDY
THRU THE MORNING AND SOME DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
RED RIVER. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS TODAY UNLESS THE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT SOONER. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
850MB WARM ADVECTION WHICH COULD BRING A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH IT. WARMING TREND INTO FRIDAY WITH SW-W WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GOING TO STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST FRI NIGHT AS NEARLY ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP IT JUST TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE SAT MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA
THEN SPREADING EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. SOME OF THIS LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER
INTO SAT NIGHT AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON NEAR ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS A
SPLIT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THEY DIFFER ON THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY THE TIMING OF ANY WEAK LEAD OR NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVES COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. BLENDED SOLUTION GIVES
US SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES AND A COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING THAT PERIOD IT SEEMS REASONABLE. MORE
ROBUST PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD AS MODELS
COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST
AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH
BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KNOCK TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
FINALLY MOVES E. DRYING IS INDICATED IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING FROM THE DVL BASIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THRU
THE PERIOD...THUS TIMED THE CHANGES IN THE TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND BECOME SRLY ACROSS THE AREA BY 12-15Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN CHANGES INVOLVE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS.
CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES FLAT SO FAR THIS MORNING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
CLOUDS ARE ERODING SOUTHWEST THOUGH. TRIMMED TEMPS AND KEPT
CLOUDS IN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN TODAY AS THE STRATUS
EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL KEEPS
CLOUDS WEST OF THE MISSOURI THROUGH 21Z. WILL ADJUST TO MAINTAIN
CLOUDS THROUGH THAT TIME. WILL PROBABLY SEE ONLY A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNINGS LOW TO THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH MOST AREAS. BISMARCK RADAR SHOWING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH THE WINDS AND SHOULD COMPLETEY END
BY LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 08-10 UTC RAP AND HRRR TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLES WHICH DEPICT A SLOWING CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING CENTRAL. ALSO...ADDED POPS FOR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF EROSION OF
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...UPSTREAM FROM
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO
THE ND/MT AND WY/SD BORDERS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DECREASED
GREATLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
REPORTED IN THE FAR WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WERE STILL BRISK AT AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TO BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN THE WEST
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
20S IN THE CENTRAL...TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MID
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING...IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDFIELD IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THE
STRONGEST RESULTING FROM THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR POSSIBLY
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KISN-KDIK IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z...ANDKMOT-
KBIS AFTER 00Z...WITH KJMS BECOMING VFR AFTER 03Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN TODAY AS THE STRATUS
EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL KEEPS
CLOUDS WEST OF THE MISSOURI THROUGH 21Z. WILL ADJUST TO MAINTAIN
CLOUDS THROUGH THAT TIME. WILL PROBABLY SEE ONLY A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNINGS LOW TO THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH MOST AREAS. BISMARCK RADAR SHOWING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH THE WINDS AND SHOULD COMPLETEY END
BY LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 08-10 UTC RAP AND HRRR TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLES WHICH DEPICT A SLOWING CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING CENTRAL. ALSO...ADDED POPS FOR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF EROSION OF
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...UPSTREAM FROM
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO
THE ND/MT AND WY/SD BORDERS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DECREASED
GREATLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
REPORTED IN THE FAR WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WERE STILL BRISK AT AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TO BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN THE WEST
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
20S IN THE CENTRAL...TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MID
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING...IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDFIELD IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THE
STRONGEST RESULTING FROM THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR POSSIBLY
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBIS THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 08-10 UTC RAP AND HRRR TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLES WHICH DEPICT A SLOWING CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING CENTRAL. ALSO...ADDED POPS FOR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF EROSION OF
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...UPSTREAM FROM
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO
THE ND/MT AND WY/SD BORDERS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DECREASED
GREATLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
REPORTED IN THE FAR WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WERE STILL BRISK AT AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TO BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN THE WEST
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
20S IN THE CENTRAL...TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MID
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING...IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDFIELD IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THE
STRONGEST RESULTING FROM THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR POSSIBLY
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBIS THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
213 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS. A SEASONABLY COLDER LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL END THE WEEK. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AS OF 10 PM. ANOTHER MESO LOW/STRONG
ROTATING THUNDERSTORM IS TRACKING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
MESO ANAL HAS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO/PA BORDER...WITH
A LEE SIDE TROUGH FEATURE FORMING FURTHER EAST OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY. HRRR STILL SHOWS THE LARGEST MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN
MOVING THROUGH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR INTO THE WEE HOURS...WITH
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MORNING BUT THE REAL
PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH THURSDAY STILL ENDING UP RELATIVELY MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH RISE IS SEEN IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY. BUT SOME SUN SHOULD
BREAK THROUGH POST-FRONT. WRAP AROUND/LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL
START TO CLOSE BACK IN ON THE NW THURS EVENING. WINDS MAY BE
GUSTIER IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE DRY
AIR MOVES IN AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO 5-7 KFT AGL TAPS WESTERLY
WINDS OF 50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. MEAN GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE...BUT A FEW COULD TICKLE THE 40 KT RANGE
ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A
MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
EJECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS YET-TO-BE DETERMINED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST WITH RESPECT TO
THE PCPN PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 28/12Z MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT TUE-WED WHICH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
A SHOT OF MODESTLY COLDER AIR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A
SECONDARY FROPA AND BRING LAKE EFFECT/HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO
THE NW ALLEGHENIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING OVERALL RAIN RISK AND TIMING/PLACEMENT/EXTENT LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OP ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A SRN STREAM
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH PLACING THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF
CENTRAL PA AT 06Z. IN IT/S WAKE...A DRIER SW FLOW IS BRINGING
MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY DROP CIGS
TO IFR AT KBFD/KJST. HOWEVER...AN EXAMINATION OF MDL SOUNDINGS
AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY. DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ENTERING OHIO AT 05Z WILL SWEEP THRU
CENTRAL PA BTWN 11Z-15Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN
WINDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER IN SOME SPOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING BREAKING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS BY LATE AM. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE FROM LATE AM THRU LATE AFTN. EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS STABILIZES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD.
SAT...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
SUN...AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD.
MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...PONDING/STANDING WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS..STREAMS AND
CREEKS BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD QUITE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR AND HOP WRF CLOUD
COVER PRODUCTS PICKING UP ON THE CLEARING QUITE NICELY AND SHOWS THE
CLEARING CONTINUING...BUT PERHAPS STALLING A BIT LATER THIS EVENING
FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE QUITE TRICKY AND DO NOT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE
WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO GO SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST. TOUGH
TO BALANCE ALL THIS OUT AND GET A GOOD NUMBER FOR LOWS. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...LOOKING AT 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHEAST SD INTO MN AND STILL HAVE JUST SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE CWA. MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARM UP INTO SATURDAY AS 925/850 MB TEMPS
ARE ON THE RISE WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BENEATH A MILD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. A
SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE OF ENERGY THAT KICKS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE AMONGST MODEL
RUNS. MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE OUT PERIODS...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND AN MVFR STRATUS DECK
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AFFECTING THE
KABR AND KATY TAF SITES /KMBG CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO VFR CATEGORY/.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS WELL AS
EROSION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE KABR AND KATY SCATTER OUT. CURRENT
ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 00Z FOR KABR AND 06Z FOR ATY. AFTER CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG I-29 AGAIN TONIGHT SO HEADLINE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH
HEAVIER SQUALLS REDUCING VSBY DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES. ALSO
GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET/RAIN MIXING IN AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH. WILL THEN
BE WATCHING THE VORT LOBE ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA. THIS NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OR A DUSTING TO THE NORTHEAST CWA...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ALSO WATCHING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. ITS BEEN HIT AND MISS FOR
WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AS MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH IT OR
JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINE REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL 00Z THOUGH AS A COUPLE 20Z OBS WERE IN LOW END CRITERIA
SUSTAINED AND GUSTING CLOSE TO 45 MPH. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF
STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS
925 MB WINDS INCREASE. MAV/LAV GUIDANCE FOR SISSETON ACTUALLY SHOWS
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE LIKELY LOCALIZED TO SISSETON AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
SISSETON. PEEVER AND SUMMIT MAY SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AS WELL...BUT
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEXT SURGE WILL BE TO WARRANT
EXTENDING A WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH 06Z OR 09Z. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION FOR EVENING SHIFT. SPS
MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS AS WELL IF IT IS MORE OF A LOCALIZED
EVENT.
CLOUDS ARE THE NEXT ISSUE. STILL A WEALTH OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA AND FEEL MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AFTER SUNSET THERE SHOULD BE SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE WESTERN END. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN THE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DEPART/CLEAR OUT...BUT DID GO FOR A CLEARING TREND OVER CENTRAL
SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE THOUGH GIVEN UPSTREAM
TRENDS SO EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. RAP 925-850
RH ACTUALLY KEEPS HIGH VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDS STAYING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL A
HUGE AMOUNT.
REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET AS A SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS STILL TRICKY TO FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AND RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE ALREADY ONGOING BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A SHARP DROP IN THE EVENING THEN SEE READINGS STEADY
OFF OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES AS WINDS INCREASE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH...AS WE TYPICALLY SEE VERY OFTEN...FAVORED
COLD SPOTS AND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
AND STAY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL
QUITE NICELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SKIRTING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY DRY FOR OUR
CWA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES BY THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
REGARDLESS. THE MILD PACIFIC FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN
THE TEENS...AND CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY 18Z. AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. AN AREA OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD.
ANY IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH THE PRECIP MAY REACH AS FAR AS
KATY BEFORE EXITING BY 12Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA ATTM.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SHOW ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THUS WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 06Z...THEN JUST THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AFTER 06Z. WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUNDS FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL...SKIES CLEARING OUT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR KCSV.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD CALM
DOWN BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AN OVERVIEW OF AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOWED A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO WACO. A VERY
GOOD INFLOW INTO THE STORMS IN CENTRAL TEXAS WAS OCCURRING...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MARINE AREAS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16 FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO CENTRAL OK...AND 700 MB DEWPOINTS
GREATER THAN 4 AT CRP AND BRO. IN CONTRAST...A CAP WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SE TEXAS AS SEEN ON THE CRP SOUNDING AND HINTED ON THE LCH
SOUNDING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT THIS EVENING SO FAR AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH AT 930 PM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
LIKE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TEXAS TECH AND HRRR WHICH SHOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BOTH MODELS THEN BRING AN AREA
OF STORMS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...FELT THAT
THE BEST TIMES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY...BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 78 59 75 55 / 90 70 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 63 76 57 / 90 90 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 67 75 65 / 90 90 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ROUND TWO OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ONE SEVERE STORM IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 55-70 KNOTS. A PACIFIC FRONT OR DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD NOT
MOVE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 14Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
CLEARING THINGS OUT. WITH AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE FURTHER PROLONGED
CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTAL. EVEN THOUGH THESE TOTALS
ARE NOT HIGH...1-2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO FURTHER QUICK RISES OF
AREA CREEKS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED EXTREME RAINFALL TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 52 KNOTS. DURING THESE
STORMS CIGS AND VBSYS WITH LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING (16Z) SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 79 57 77 50 / 70 40 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 80 57 77 48 / 70 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 57 78 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 54 75 51 / 80 30 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 79 53 82 51 / 60 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 55 75 51 / 80 40 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 54 80 50 / 60 10 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 80 57 77 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 81 59 76 53 / 80 60 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 56 78 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 57 79 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 52 KNOTS. DURING THESE
STORMS CIGS AND VBSYS WITH LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING (16Z) SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 79 57 77 50 / 70 40 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 80 57 77 48 / 70 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 57 78 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 54 75 51 / 80 30 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 79 53 82 51 / 50 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 55 75 51 / 80 40 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 54 80 50 / 60 10 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 80 57 77 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 81 59 76 53 / 80 60 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 56 78 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 57 79 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
317 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EDGES CLOSER. THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES IT EAST INTO
THE CWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE PROPPED UP IN THE
MID 70S. THE FAVORABLE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG SOUTH
LLJ OVERNIGHT...AND WILL FEED INTO A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE.
FRIDAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL BE ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS INLAND AND
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARER THE COAST. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS ADVERTISED BY SPC...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVORING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADOES...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. HIT AND
RUN SHOWERS...AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE DAY...WILL CONTAIN BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WITH PWAT PUSHING ABOVE TWO INCHES AGAIN...COULD SEE
A QUICK INCH OF RAIN...BUT TRAINING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. QUICK MOVEMENT
ON THE OTHER HAND COULD LIMIT QPF.
FRIDAY NIGHT...INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER TO SUGGEST A SQUALL LINE
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO KICKOFF
THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT SHOULD ACHIEVE FAVORABLE TIMING. TWO TO
FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE...WITH SMALL SPIN-UPS
POSSIBLE. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST LATE...WITH DRY
SLOTTING AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ON SATURDAY MAINTAINING THE
THREAT FOR CONV MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH 500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER VERY LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
WILL PUSH INTO THE DESERT SW STATES WITH RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEX. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED IN ON
THE SW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
WILL FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST TROUGH AXIS AS THE ECMWF TENDS TO HOLD THE TROUGH AXIS BACK
A LITTLE FURTHER WEST VERSUS THE GFS. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TEMPS/POPS.
&&
.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND SEVEN FEET ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT THE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START
TO CALM DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING FROPA/MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE PGF WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF.
HOWEVER AS THE LARGE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LATER NEXT WEEK
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IN TURN BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WHICH MAY START TO TIGHTEN UP THE PGF INCREASING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK POSSIBLE PRODUCING SCEC/MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ON AND AFTER WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 84 78 85 / 10 60 50 70
BROWNSVILLE 77 85 77 86 / 10 60 50 60
HARLINGEN 76 87 77 87 / 10 60 40 60
MCALLEN 77 88 77 87 / 10 60 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 88 74 87 / 20 50 40 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 83 79 84 / 10 50 50 70
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
FOG IS QUITE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MORNING FOG
WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHRESW-
ARW-EAST...RNK WRFARW...NAM AND GFS SHOWED SOME SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR PLACED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS ARE OVERDONE WITH THE WEST FLOW. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE...SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WHAT STARTS OUT INITIALLY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BECOMES SPLIT AND
BLOCKED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DECREASING
WINDS...SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH...SO
OTHER THAN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEEPER VALLEYS WITHIN
THE MOUNTAINS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ATTEMPTS TO PICK UP THE LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING 592DM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...BUT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS AL/GA WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND...ALBEIT SHEARING OUT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND POTENTIALLY NORTHEAST INTO VA.
WHILE THE MODELS HANDLE THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SAT-SUN WELL...THE SUBSEQUENT HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS POORLY HANDLED. THE
ECMWF TRACKS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WELL NORTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS RAPIDLY TAKES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HYDRO
ISSUES...WHILE THE GFS WOULD NOT. WPC HAS INDICATED THAT A SWATH
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL TRACK FROM NEAR BHM-ATL-CAE...REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1.0 INCH IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA TO 1/2 INCH NORTH. THIS WILL NOT BE A WEDGE
EVENT...MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT...AND THUS THERE SHOULD NOT
BE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS WITH SOME OF OUR PREVIOUS
EVENTS. NONETHELESS...THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED FROM GENERAL 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL LAST TWO DAYS. THUS...TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY..WILL WORD EXTENDED PORTION OF HWO AS "PROBABILITY IS
LOW" RATHER THAN "NO HAZARDS". ALSO IN THIS REGARD...HAVE CARRIED
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LONGER IN THESE PERIODS THAN I
REALLY WANTED TO IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SHOULD FINALLY BE KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY TUE AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN RESPONSE...A HIGH AMPLITUDE 592DM RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....CENTERED ACROSS FL/GA.
MEANWHILE...A NEW BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS INTO
THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. GIVEN THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW
AND BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL REACH OUR AREA IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRUE COLD FRONT EVIDENT ALONG THE ALLEGHANY FRONT OF WV AT THIS
HOUR WITH A NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
TOWARD A LWB-BLF LINE...THEN DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT TO THE EAST. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BLF-LWB WITH THE
-SHRA. OTHERWISE...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR CLEARING TO THE EAST AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY MID-MORNING ROA/LYH/DAN...WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
INTO AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON BLF/LWB...EARLY AFTERNOON BCB. ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
BY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE WEST. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AFT 00Z WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME W-WNW THROUGH 14Z AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z FRI.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CIGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 16Z...THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
533 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
FOG IS QUITE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MORNING FOG
WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHRESW-
ARW-EAST...RNK WRFARW...NAM AND GFS SHOWED SOME SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR PLACED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS ARE OVERDONE WITH THE WEST FLOW. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE...SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WHAT STARTS OUT INITIALLY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BECOMES SPLIT AND
BLOCKED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DECREASING
WINDS...SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH...SO
OTHER THAN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEEPER VALLEYS WITHIN
THE MOUNTAINS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ATTEMPTS TO PICK UP THE LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING 592DM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...BUT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS AL/GA WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND...ALBEIT SHEARING OUT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND POTENTIALLY NORTHEAST INTO VA.
WHILE THE MODELS HANDLE THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SAT-SUN WELL...THE SUBSEQUENT HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS POORLY HANDLED. THE
ECMWF TRACKS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WELL NORTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS RAPIDLY TAKES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HYDRO
ISSUES...WHILE THE GFS WOULD NOT. WPC HAS INDICATED THAT A SWATH
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL TRACK FROM NEAR BHM-ATL-CAE...REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1.0 INCH IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA TO 1/2 INCH NORTH. THIS WILL NOT BE A WEDGE
EVENT...MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT...AND THUS THERE SHOULD NOT
BE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS WITH SOME OF OUR PREVIOUS
EVENTS. NONETHELESS...THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED FROM GENERAL 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL LAST TWO DAYS. THUS...TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY..WILL WORD EXTENDED PORTION OF HWO AS "PROBABILITY IS
LOW" RATHER THAN "NO HAZARDS". ALSO IN THIS REGARD...HAVE CARRIED
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LONGER IN THESE PERIODS THAN I
REALLY WANTED TO IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SHOULD FINALLY BE KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY TUE AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN RESPONSE...A HIGH AMPLITUDE 592DM RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....CENTERED ACROSS FL/GA.
MEANWHILE...A NEW BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS INTO
THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. GIVEN THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW
AND BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL REACH OUR AREA IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING HAVE RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING. ADDED SOME LIFR FOG TO KBCB AND KLYH
AND MVFR FOG TO KROA AND KDAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z/8AM AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
FOG IS QUITE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MORNING FOG
WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHRESW-
ARW-EAST...RNK WRFARW...NAM AND GFS SHOWED SOME SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR PLACED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS ARE OVERDONE WITH THE WEST FLOW. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE...SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME
MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THIS FORECAST TURNS MORE TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WILL HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF SHOWER
CHANCES EXISTS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER CHANCE WORKING SW
TO NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR SE...BUT FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING AIDED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE FRONT FROM GEORGIA TO NC OUTER BANKS. WILL STAY
WITH LOW POPS TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHS
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ATTM WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING HAVE RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING. ADDED SOME LIFR FOG TO KBCB AND KLYH
AND MVFR FOG TO KROA AND KDAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z/8AM AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
151 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 06Z/2AM...OTHERWISE THE
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SINCE FRONT
WILL NOT REACH WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
6AM...HAVE ADJUSTED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
WE SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CLEARING THINGS OUT LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY
LINGERING UPSLOPE SE WV/FAR SW VA/NW NC OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS THURSDAY IN THE SE WV MTNS TOWARD
NC...BUT EAST OF THIS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY
KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS INTO NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
LINGERING HERE.
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT-THURSDAY BUT ONLY IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT STAYING
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.
DESPITE BEING POST-FRONT THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SW
WITH AXIS OF NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH YET
ANOTHER VORT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NW FLOW AT TIMES WITH
SUNSHINE WILL WARM THINGS UP IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO EXPECT
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH NW FLOW
WEAKENING. LOW LVL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 40S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME
MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THIS FORECAST TURNS MORE TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WILL HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF SHOWER
CHANCES EXISTS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER CHANCE WORKING SW
TO NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR SE...BUT FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING AIDED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE FRONT FROM GEORGIA TO NC OUTER BANKS. WILL STAY
WITH LOW POPS TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHS
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ATTM WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING HAVE RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING. ADDED SOME LIFR FOG TO KBCB AND KLYH
AND MVFR FOG TO KROA AND KDAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z/8AM AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
912 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINY
AND BREEZY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE
WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER HOWEVER IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MOIST ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FOR WET AND
BLUSTERY WEATHER.
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME IN TWO WAVES.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND HEAVIER SHOT OF
RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
THE HEAVY RAINS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE FRONTAL FEATURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MINOR
RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR COOLER
SHOWERY WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET WHICH
MEANS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL FORM OVER THE NE PAC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK
DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLSIDE WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE RIDGE MAY LINGER OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. 33
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY FOR STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT. CONTD LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MTNS WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.
KSEA...ANTICIPATE CIGS IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE TIL 2100
UTC...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 2100 UTC. HOWEVER...
CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY RANGE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE SLY 9-13 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION ACROSS ALL WATERS. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY STRONGER
SYSTEM...WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FELTON/05
&&
.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE DETAILS BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THERE
WILL BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS SHOW 5-10 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER A 48-HOUR
PERIOD ENDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS A
RELATIVE LULL...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO HIGHLIGHT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
BY SATURDAY.
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will continue this morning then taper off this
afternoon. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch
of Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread
rain on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will
also develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled
conditions with occasional wet periods will continue into next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A shortwave trough will bring some light
precipitation to the Inland Northwest today. One area of light
precipitation is moving across extreme eastern WA and north ID as of
2 am. A second band is just barely holding together as it crosses
the deep basin but should regain some organization as it encounters
the rising terrain east of the basin. This feature will bring
another round of light precipitation to the eastern half of the
forecast area later this morning. The HRRR and NAM have tracked the
first band well so the near term forecast is leaning heavily toward
this guidance. Once the trough axis moves off to the east, scattered
rain showers will continue in moist upslope flow into the Idaho
Panhandle tonight while the remainder of the forecast area has a
brief respite from the wet weather.
Friday through Sunday...Wetter and windier conditions will begin on
Friday as fire hose of an atmospheric river is aimed at the Pacific
Northwest. Snow levels will remain high for Friday and Saturday
as the subtropical moisture tap pushes into the forecast
area. Persistent warm frontal precipitation will begin on Friday
and continue into Saturday. A cold front will bring an end to the
steady precip and usher in more scattered showers late Saturday.
The timing of this break in the wet weather will be critical to
trick-or-treaters who wish to remain dry...or at least not
drenched. for Sunday, the upper trough will slide over the region
with more scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers. Snow
levels could fall as low as 3000 ft with mountain passes
collecting some snowfall. More details on this to come in the next
day or two. Storm total rainfall from Friday through Sunday will
be in the one to two and a half inch range in the Idaho Panhandle
and Cascades with a general one third to one half inch in the
basin...except a tenth or two in the downslope deep basin area.
The rising terrain east of the basin will see a half inch to and
inch of rainfall. Winds will be a significant issue starting Friday and
lasting through Saturday with gust potential in the well mixed
warm sector potentially approaching 40 mph over exposed terrain.
Winds will remain blustery through Sunday night.
Monday through Thursday...The region will be under cool and unstable
northerly flow as the work week begins. This will keep a chance of
showers in the forecast but as the base of the trough digs south,
the tap into deep Pacific moisture will be lost. Valley rain and
mountain snow will be showery in nature with light amounts of
precipitation compared to the weekend system. Temperatures will be
near seasonal normals. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS:One band of rain showers is moving into the Idaho
panhandle and a second band is moving across the basin as of 11Z.
These two features will continue to bring IFR/LIFR conditions to
TAF sites other than KEAT and KLWS. Once the second band reaches the
ID border around 15Z...conditions will begin to improve with MVFR
conditions expected by 18Z. Gusty SW winds will develop this
afternoon, mixing out the low ceilings. Winds will subside after
03Z and MVFR ceilings may return. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 43 55 48 58 46 / 20 10 80 80 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 41 52 47 56 46 / 40 20 90 90 90 40
Pullman 56 43 55 47 57 46 / 20 20 80 80 80 50
Lewiston 60 46 61 52 62 50 / 20 20 80 70 70 50
Colville 52 39 52 42 54 42 / 80 10 80 80 80 20
Sandpoint 51 39 51 42 54 43 / 60 30 90 100 100 40
Kellogg 48 39 48 44 51 45 / 70 40 100 100 100 70
Moses Lake 61 44 65 48 62 47 / 40 10 50 40 50 10
Wenatchee 60 46 63 51 60 47 / 0 10 40 30 50 0
Omak 56 41 58 44 58 43 / 50 10 70 50 70 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
257 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO OREGON. LEFTOVER INSTABILITY MAY CAUSE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF THE SEASON
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS OREGON AS A COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR THE CASCADES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FOG TRYING TO FORM
UNDER ANY BREAKS IN THE HIGHER CLOUDS. FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY...BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE GROUND SO MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS.
LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO OREGON
THIS MORNING...CAUSING SHOWERS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWLANDS. MOIST WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CAUSING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
TO PERSIST IN THE CASCADES DESPITE THE HIGHER PRESSURE. SOME SHALLOW
INSTABILITY LINGERS AS WELL...BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED AT 700 MB
BY WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB REMAIN STEEP
ENOUGH ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS TO PROMOTE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED IN MUCH OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LEE OF THE COAST
RANGE. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COLLAPSE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
WHILE LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECT HIGH
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER TAKING SHAPE FROM THE SUBTROPICS NEAR THE DATELINE TO AROUND
45N/140W...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
WITHIN ITS CORE. 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN AXIS
OF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT AIMED AT THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE IVT AXIS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE IT COMES BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD AGREE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND MAKES A LOT OF SENSE GIVEN THAT THE STRONG JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS AS FAST-MOVING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RACE EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
ANY STRONGER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WOULD TEND TO CAUSE WIGGLES IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...PUSHING THE AREA OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NORTH AHEAD OF THEM AND SOUTH BEHIND THEM. MODELS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE WITH THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES DUE TO THEIR SPEED AND SUBTLETY.
EVEN A SHORT BREAK IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD GO A LONG WAY TOWARD
EASING ANY MINOR HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WE HAVE. FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING
TWO PRIMARY PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA...FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL ZONE COMES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT.
IN BETWEEN...OUR QPF IS MORE MODEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE DECENT RAIN
SHADOWING WILL BE OCCURRING. THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AFFECTING THE PORTLAND METRO FOR THE TRICK OR
TREATERS HALLOWEEN EVENING...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SALEM SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AROUND 6 PM SAT
EVENING IN THE PDX METRO...WHILE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z/06Z
NAM AND 00Z GEM HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A LITTLE LONGER.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. STILL LOOKING LIKE 4-8 INCHES IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...
NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE...AND THE CASCADES FROM SOUTHERN WA TO MOUNT
HOOD. GENERAL 2-4 INCH TOTALS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. INLAND VALLEYS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOWING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-5 AND IN THE LOWER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY...ONLY 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
GRAYS RIVER NEAR ROSBURG REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO BE MINOR URBAN FLOODING DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL STREAMS DEPENDING ON
RAIN RATES. WILL ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /PDXESFPQR/ SHORTLY
ADDRESSING THE SIGNIFICANT RISES AS WELL AS TO URGE THE PUBLIC TO
MAKE SURE THEIR STORM DRAINS ARE CLEAR FOR THIS FIRST HEAVY RAIN
EVENT OF THE SEASON.
NOT TO BE LEFT OUT IN ALL THE TALK ABOUT RAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS TO AFFECT MUCH OF OUR CWA. WHILE 850 MB WINDS ARE
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON THE 00Z GFS...GENERALLY 45-55 KT AT THE
STRONGEST FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE NOT BAD WITH 4-6 MB DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF
CHOICE. WITH ISOBARS PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. COULD SEE GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AT SOME
POINT FRI NIGHT/SAT...WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FOR THE COAST. THESE
NUMBERS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA RESPECTIVELY...
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LEAVES
STILL ON THE TREES. ADDITIONALLY THE WIND WILL KNOCK MORE LEAVES AND
SMALL BRANCHES DOWN...FURTHER EXACERBATING THE CLOGGED STORM DRAIN
ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVE.
OVERALL...EXPECT VERY WET AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TRUE RAINY SEASON BEGINS FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ONSHORE ON SUNDAY
BRINGING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WE WILL ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE PASSES BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY STARTING TO CLEAR
OUT BY TUESDAY. MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH PROGRESSING OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR THROUGH 19Z TODAY...WITH
LOCALIZED IFR. COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TO STAY MVFR TO IFR THROUGH
00Z FRI AND THEN GO MORE IFR THEREAFTER AS WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
DEVELOPS. INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING AFTER 19Z TODAY TO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR CONDITIONS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR DEVELOPED JUST BEFORE 09Z AND SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CATEGORY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WRN APPROACHES. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO LOW-END VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN APPROACHES. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...SOMEWHAT OF A LULL TODAY WITH 10-15 KT SW-W WIND. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 00Z FRI AND THU NIGHT WITH THE NEXT WARM
FRONT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND
12Z FRI...POSSIBLY REACHING LOW-END GALE LATE FRI MORNING. NAM AND
GFS MAINTAIN 20-25 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS FRI MORNING...
ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF 30 KT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS.
WIND EASES A BIT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT INCREASES AGAIN
FRI NIGHT. MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE GALES 06Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN
AND AGAIN 12Z SUN THROUGH 00Z MON. HIGH PRES SPREADS INTO THE
WATERS BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DIPPED BELOW 10 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10 FT THROUGH 12Z FRI. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS
REACHING 10 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS FRI MORNING AND CONTINUING TO
BUILD FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE ENP GUIDANCE
FOR SAT/SUN DUE TO STRONGER FORECAST WIND. THUS...SEAS LIKELY TO
REACH 15-17 FT THIS WEEKEND. THINK SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...PROBABLY NOT SUBSIDING
BELOW 10 FT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A shortwave trough will bring some light
precipitation to the Inland Northwest today. One area of light
precipitation is moving across extreme eastern WA and north ID as of
2 am. A second band is just barely holding together as it crosses
the deep basin but should regain some organization as it encounters
the rising terrain east of the basin. This feature will bring
another round of light precipitation to the eastern half of the
forecast area later this morning. The HRRR and NAM have tracked the
first band well so the near term forecast is leaning heavily toward
this guidance. Once the trough axis moves off to the east, scattered
rain showers will continue in moist upslope flow into the Idaho
Panhandle tonight while the remainder of the forecast area has a
brief respite from the wet weather.
Friday through Sunday...Wetter and windier conditions will begin on
Friday as fire hose of an atmospheric river is aimed at the Pacific
Northwest. Snow levels will remain high for Friday and Saturday
as the subtropical moisture tap pushes into the forecast
area. Persistent warm frontal precipitation will begin on Friday
and continue into Saturday. A cold front will bring an end to the
steady precip and usher in more scattered showers late Saturday.
The timing of this break in the wet weather will be critical to
trick-or-treaters who wish to remain dry...or at least not
drenched. for Sunday, the upper trough will slide over the region
with more scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers. Snow
levels could fall as low as 3000 ft with mountain passes
collecting some snowfall. More details on this to come in the next
day or two. Storm total rainfall from Friday through Sunday will
be in the one to two and a half inch range in the Idaho Panhandle
and Cascades with a general one third to one half inch in the
basin...except a tenth or two in the downslope deep basin area.
The rising terrain east of the basin will see a half inch to and
inch of rainfall. Winds will be a significant issue starting Friday and
lasting through Saturday with gust potential in the well mixed
warm sector potentially approaching 40 mph over exposed terrain.
Winds will remain blustery through Sunday night.
Monday through Thursday...The region will be under cool and unstable
northerly flow as the work week begins. This will keep a chance of
showers in the forecast but as the base of the trough digs south,
the tap into deep Pacific moisture will be lost. Valley rain and
mountain snow will be showery in nature with light amounts of
precipitation compared to the weekend system. Temperatures will be
near seasonal normals. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist frontal band is moving into the WA/ID border
region at 06Z. This is causing IFR ceilings to develop quickly
over the eastern TAF sites. These cigs will persist overnight and
through the morning hours before breaking up around noon. The
first band of rain will move into the Panhandle over the next few
hours with a break in the rain. A second band of showers will move
over the Cascades and across the Basin for the remainder of the
night, reaching the ID border around 15Z. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 43 55 48 58 46 / 20 10 80 80 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 41 52 47 56 46 / 40 20 90 90 90 40
Pullman 56 43 55 47 57 46 / 20 20 80 80 80 50
Lewiston 60 46 61 52 62 50 / 20 20 80 70 70 50
Colville 52 39 52 42 54 42 / 80 10 80 80 80 20
Sandpoint 51 39 51 42 54 43 / 60 30 90 100 100 40
Kellogg 48 39 48 44 51 45 / 70 40 100 100 100 70
Moses Lake 61 44 65 48 62 47 / 40 10 50 40 50 10
Wenatchee 60 46 63 51 60 47 / 0 10 40 30 50 0
Omak 56 41 58 44 58 43 / 50 10 70 50 70 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
AT 3 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO DECORAH IOWA. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO A ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
PER HOUR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR WHICH KEPT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 30.03Z...THE
29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE 925 MB AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRAMATICALLY WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THERE IS A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING. THIS
AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LA CROSSE AREA. UPSTREAM OF
THIS CLEARING THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENT INVERSION
WHICH IS NEAR THE 875 MB. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THE 29.12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS INCLUDES THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLIMB INTO THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AN UNUSUALLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 16C RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...16 TO 19C ON TUESDAY...AND 15 TO 17C ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MIXING
THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTS IN MID AND UPPER
60 TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND LOWER TO POTENTIALLY
MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-94 MAY BE IMPACTED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO KEPT THOSE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO
5F WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED THAT SOME AREAS SOME OF INTERSTATE 94
COULD APPROACH RECORDS LEVELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES /IN THE MID
70S/ ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIX DOWN THE VERY WARM AIR FROM ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL WILL BE THE RULE AT KRST AND
FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL AT KLSE. CURRENT CEILINGS OF 700 FT AGL
AT KRST SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WHETHER OR NOT CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 1000 FT
AGL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS LESS CERTAIN GIVEN LATEST SPREAD
SHOWN BY FORECAST GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT
AGL FOR NOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN LATEST
TAFS. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
IN BR/HZ.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLSE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY
AND THAT HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE SEAWARD
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN START TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD, WE
WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE THE
WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALOFT, WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO FILL IN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE SUN
SHINING BRIGHTLY OUT THERE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 60
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH MAKES IT WAY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY AT THAT
TIME SO WE ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT MORE ON THE MILD SIDE. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST.
OVERALL, A NICE NIGHT TO BE OUT TRICK OR TREATING. WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR HALLOWEEN, A JACKET MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB: THE PRIMARY ZONAL JETSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
RACES TO THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE IN TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING PROBABLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SPREAD
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING AND TRACK OF THAT MID LEVEL
CENTER TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT LEAVES US WITH TWO OPTIONS...IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES--DRY, OR
IF THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MUCH MORE
STRUCTURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, MORE AKIN TO THE 00Z/31
OPERATIONAL ECMWF, THEN WE RECEIVE A DOUSING OF RAIN, AT LEAST
FOR THE DELMARVA AND S NJ MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH MEANS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OF NORMAL. RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT KGED TO NEAR NORMAL KACY AND KILG,
AND ONE HALF TO AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
THROUGH KTTN,KMPO, KABE AND KRDG. NOVEMBER IS GOING TO GET OFF TO
A VERY WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN AROUND 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAYTIME MAX`S POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/31 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/31 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/31 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
THE WPC MAX/MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50M 50 WITH THE 00Z31 GFS
MEXMOS TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING WITH MAYBE A MID LEVEL
GENERATED WAA SPRINKLE BUT WETTING MEASURABLE (0.01) UNLIKELY I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST, WHEREAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
APPEARS TO BE I-78 NORTHWARD OVER E PA AND NW NJ. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70
KT 700MB WLY SPEED MAX OVER LERIE AT 12Z SUNDAY AND N CENTRAL PA
AT 18Z SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE WORDING AS COVERAGE SCT OR
ISOLATED AND DIDN`T ADD SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST OF I-95.
FWIW...ITS ONLY THE OP GFS/ECMWF THAT OFFERS RAIN NE PA N OF I-78
WITH TRACE OR NIL 00Z/31 UK/GGEM/NAM.
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON (NO RAIN) WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL UP INTO
THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATE.
EVENING WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT. RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN VICINITY EASTON MD TO
GEORGETOWN DE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY. NORTH WINDS...SPEEDS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
ITS THE WET 00Z/31 NAM AND ECMWF VERSUS THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED
UK/GGEM/GFS. FOR NOW LETS FIGURE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
UP THROUGH THE DELMARVA TO CAPE MAY NJ BUT WITH AN UNCERTAIN NORTHERN
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE: WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ANY AMOUNTS. POPS MAY NEED A SUBSTANTIAL BOOST
IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. STRUCTURE OF
THE DEPARTING TEXAS SHORT WAVE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
WE DO APPEAR TO BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INDUCING WAA LIFT
WITH RESPECT TO THE RR QUAD OF THE 160KT 250MB JET AT 18Z MONDAY-
WHICH IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REFERENCE TO 250MB
REPRESENTS THE GENERAL UPPER LVL JET STRUCTURE AT THAT TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY RAIN ENDING DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ. CLEARING.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST OF WHAT FOLLOWS IS DIRECT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY TO BE A NON FACTOR AND IN ITS WAKE A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONE COULD THROW MANY SUPERLATIVES
AROUND TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL ALSO. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AFTER
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE SOUNDINGS ARE DRY.
CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH OUR CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FROM WPC GRIDS. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND THEN SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST, MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER IN ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING MAY CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY VCNTY KABE-
KRDG NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
A WEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DELMARVA
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS, MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ AIRPORTS.
VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT EXPECTED KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KRDG/KTTN. NORTH
WIND. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS GROUP OF TAF SITES IS AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PA5TCHY
IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN SOME OF THE NON URBAN AIRPORTS. LIGHT
WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH NEARSHORE INSTABILITY FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
TO AFFECT MARINE TRAFFIC TRANSITING IN AND OUT OF PORT,
ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE OUTER WATERS
EAST OF MONMOUTH COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS 25 KT. CONFIDENCE ON 25 KT
GUST OCCURRENCE LOWERS WHEN HEADING SOUTH, DOWN ADJACENT TO CAPE
MAY COUNTY NJ.
SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHWEST AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE.
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY. WE MAY NEED AN SCA FOR THE DE ATLANTIC
WATERS DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG 527
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 527
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY
AND THAT HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE SEAWARD
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN START TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD, WE
WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE THE
WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALOFT, WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO FILL IN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE SUN
SHINING BRIGHTLY OUT THERE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 60
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH MAKES IT WAY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY AT THAT
TIME SO WE ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT MORE ON THE MILD SIDE. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST.
OVERALL, A NICE NIGHT TO BE OUT TRICK OR TREATING. WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR HALLOWEEN, A JACKET MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB: THE PRIMARY ZONAL JETSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
RACES TO THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE IN TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING PROBABLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SPREAD
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING AND TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT LEAVES US WITH TWO OPTIONS...IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES--DRY, OR
IF THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MUCH MORE
STRUCTURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, MORE AKIN THIS 00Z/31 OP ECMWF,
THEN WE RECEIVE A DOUSING OF RAIN, AT LEAST FOR THE DELMARVA AND S
NJ MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH MEANS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT THE SURFACE AS WELL BY
MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OF NORMAL. RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT KGED TO NEAR NORMAL KACY AND KILG,
AND ONE HALF TO AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
THROUGH KTTN,KMPO, KABE AND KRDG. NOVEMBER IS GOING TO GET OFF TO
A VERY WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN AROUND 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAYTIME MAX`S POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/31 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/31 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/31 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING WITH MAYBE A MID LEVEL
GENERATED WAA SPRINKLE BUT WETTING MEASURABLE (0.01) UNLIKELY I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST, WHEREAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
APPEARS TO BE I-78 NORTHWARD OVER E PA AND NW NJ. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70
KT 700MB WLY SPEED MAX OVER LERIE AT 12Z SUNDAY AND N CENTRAL PA
AT 18Z SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE WORDING AS COVERAGE SCT OR
ISOLATED AND DIDN`T ADD SPRINKLES MUCH FURTHER EAST OF I-95.
FWIW...ITS ONLY THE OP GFS/ECMWF THAT OFFERS RAIN NE PA N OF I-78
WITH TRACE OR NIL 00Z/31 UK/GGEM/NAM.
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON (NO RAIN) WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL UP INTO
THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATE.
EVENING WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT. RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN VICINITY EASTON MD TO
GEORGETOWN DE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY. NORTH WINDS...SPEEDS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
ITS THE WET 00Z/31 NAM AND ECMWF VERSUS THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED
UK/GGEM/GFS. FOR NOW LETS FIGURE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
UP THROUGH THE DELMARVA TO CAPE MAY NJ BUT WITH AN UNCERTAIN NORTHERN
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE: WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ANY AMOUNTS. POPS MAY NEED A SUBSTANTIAL BOOST
IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. STRUCTURE OF
THE DEPARTING TEXAS SHORT WAVE FOR THE MID ALTC COAST WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
WE DO APPEAR TO BE IN A GOOD SPOT REGARDING THE RR QUAD OF THE
160KT 250MB JET 18Z MONDAY (MARITIMES AND USED 250 AS EXAMPLE OF
UPPER LVL JET STRUCTURE)
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY RAIN ENDING DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ. CLEARING.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST OF WHAT FOLLOWS IS DIRECT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY TO BE A NON FACTOR AND IN ITS WAKE A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONE COULD THROW MANY SUPERLATIVES
AROUND TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL ALSO. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AFTER
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE SOUNDINGS ARE DRY.
CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH OUR CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FROM WPC GRIDS. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND THEN SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST, MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER IN ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING MAY CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY VCNTY KABE-
KRDG NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
A WEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DELMARVA
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS, MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ AIRPORTS.
VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT EXPECTED KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KRDG/KTTN. NORTH
WIND. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS GROUP OF TAF SITES AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PA5TCHY
IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN SOME OF THE NON URBAN AIRPORTS. LIGHT
WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH NEARSHORE INSTABILITY FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
TO AFFECT MARINE TRANSITING IN AND OUT OF PORT, ESPECIALLY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MONMOUTH
COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS 25 KT. CONFIDENCE ON 25 KT GUST OCCURRENCE LOWERS
WHEN DOWN ADJACENT TO CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ.
SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHWEST AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE.
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY. WE MAY NEED AN SCA FOR THE DE ATLANTIC
WATERS DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENTS EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 403
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG 403
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 403
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 403
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS MORNING...RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF OUR CWA AND IS NOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED BEHIND RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH/WESTERLY FLOW. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLEARING LINE
ALONG LINE FROM IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AND NAM HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON EXTENT/PATTER OF FOG AND
TENDENCY HAS BEEN TOWARD IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1/4SM VIS. THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A 1-2HR
WINDOW OF 1/2SM VIS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD
TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACK WILL FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS. LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE ROCKIES AND INCREASING SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE PERIODS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...WHICH IS ABOUT 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH 80F...ABOUT 20F ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WITH TIME...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC
WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS AND CHANGES FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT LOOKS LIKE A SPAGHETTI CHART AND
THERE IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
SO SUFFICE TO SAY...I AM PLANNING ON MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE
CRH_INIT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH. ESSENTIALLY THE BLEND KEEPS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO DIFFERENT
EXTREMES WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER OR WETTER DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION
YOU CHOOSE.
OF LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COOLER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015
KGLD...VLIFR CIGS/VIS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z
WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST 6KTS OR SO. FROM 11Z-13Z WEST WINDS NEAR
10KTS DEVELOP PUSHING STRATUS DECK EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KTS
EXPECTED FROM 16Z-19Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW 12KTS BY 20Z. FROM 21Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 12Z WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER 13Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 20KTS FROM 17Z-20Z. AFTER
21Z WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND AFTER 00Z BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS
ARE LESS CERTAIN MOST DAYS DUE TO THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH FOR 3HR. BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH RFW
CRITERIA CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER SW UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. OTHER COMPLICATION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FUELS AFTER
RECENT RAINFALL. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...EXPECTATION SHOULD BE FOR FUELS TO BE FAVORABLE...THOUGH
ITS HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL NEED TO
COORDINATE AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
(PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN EXITING THE AREA. ALSO...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTER MN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE RAIN AREA EXITING FAR
EASTERN MN AFTER 17Z. IT WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WISCONISN UNTIL
21Z OR SO. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER ISSUE AFFECTING
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. IT IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND HELP DRIVE THE INITIAL TROUGH EAST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THIS WAVE...AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE WITH GFS AND MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE NOON AND
EXITING TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN
THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH SHOWERS ENDING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL THROUGH THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S DURING PEAK TRICK OR TREATING
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
CLOSING OUT THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AS A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE HEIGHT
FALLS OVER WRN NOAM...THERE WILL BE A LARGE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER
ERN NOAM AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME AT US IN TWO
PARTS...THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NW WED/WED
NIGHT...WITH PART TWO TRAVELING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THU/FRI.
STARTING OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN H85
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO IN EXCESS OF 12C AS SW WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...925 TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH WITH
FAVORABLE SW WINDS THAT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
WRN MN COULD VERY WELL SEE 70 TO START NOVEMBER. FARTHER
EAST...LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD BACK HIGHS IN WRN WI. DID
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DID KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN ERN MN/WRN WI...GETTING THEM CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY...WE WILL START WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER US...BUT WILL START TO
SEE THE RIDGE BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED STRONG WRLY
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
COLORADO...WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS HERE LOOKING TO GENERATE A
RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SET US
IN A VERY MILD AND DRY WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE ONE GOING TO OUR NW WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALL 31.00 GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE
FRONT...DID BOOST HIGHS ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS A DAY NEXT WEEK TO SEE RECORD HIGHS...THIS WILL BE THE
DAY TO DO IT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT STC/MSP/EAU ARE 72/74/74
RESPECTIVELY AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...THESE VALUES COULD VERY WELL BE CHALLENGED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE LOOK TOO WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SEE
ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DRY.
INSTEAD...RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE GET BEHIND THE
FRONT. PART TWO OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
THU/FRI...WITH A POST FRONTAL DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKING TO BECOME
ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF WRN WI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. P-TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS BY THE
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO
THE LIGHT RAIN AND MIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN WEST
CENTRAL WI...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL OF OUR
MINNESOTA TERMINALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR
VISIBILITY COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
THE RAIN AND MIST...AND IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN ON
SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 13Z-17Z...AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 19Z
ON SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
331 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST. NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FOG REPORTED WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND A
MILE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING WILL BE AN END TO THE RAINFALL.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST. IT LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY
BREAK.
AS THE CLOUDS MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THE AREA OF FOG ALSO APPROACHES.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECT THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SOME TOO. EACH
RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. THE BAND OF FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAIRLY NARROW. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AS LOW AS THEY
WERE EARLIER. THEN THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. THIS IN TURN COULD MAKE IT SO THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS HAS ALREADY
TURNED WINDS A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. WITH WINDS TURNING
WESTERLY ALREADY THE FOG WILL HAVE A LITTLE HARDER TIME FORMING. AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT WITH WEST WINDS THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY WELL. THE WEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THIS PERIOD HAS A CLEAR SEPARATION IN WEATHER REGIMES...RANGING FROM
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...THEN TURNING
COLDER AND WET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ISSUES WITH THE START TO NOVEMBER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD 70S EACH
DAY FAVORS A MORE MID-SEPTEMBER FEEL. DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL BE
A KEY DRIVER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLE PUSHING SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY
OTHER THAN ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS.
CHANGES START TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS COOLER
AIR WILL SHOW ITS CARDS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
BUT THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM. NONE-THE-LESS...THE FRONT WILL PULL
THROUGH NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT A
DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
GFS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS RECORD OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT. IT GIVES REASON TO FORETELL A
POTENTIAL GOOD RAIN WILL AGAIN WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
SIGNS OF COLD ENOUGH AIR BY FRIDAY AM THAT SOME WHITE STUFF IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HAVEN/T
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT...BUT DID ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITY AND KEPT IT IN LONGER. NOT SURE IF THE
VISIBILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT BUT TRENDED DOWNWARD. THERE
ARE A COUPLE LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH VISIBILITY OF LESS
THAN A MILE. ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND START TO INCREASE
THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE...BUT THAT COULD BE LATER IN THE
MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE E GRT LKS EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RESULTING
IN LINGERING PATCH OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN PA AT 10Z. LATEST
SATL LOOP SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC
MTNS AND GIVEN LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN
THIS AREA ARND DAYBREAK.
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA ACROSS
CENTRAL PA TODAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL KEEP CENTRAL PA DRY
TODAY...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.
THICKENING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL TODAY...DESPITE
WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S OVR
MOST OF CENTRAL PA...A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GRT LKS TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL
MID LVL Q-VEC CONV FIELDS...WILL PASS NORTH OF PA. THEREFORE...BEST
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHERE ENSEMBLE DATA
SUPPORTS POPS APPROACHING 100 PCT TONIGHT AND RAINFALL AMTS ARND
0.10 INCHES.
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SCT -SHRA TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LL
JET EARLY SUNDAY AM. AFTER A CLOUDY START...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PARTIAL
CLEARING BY SUN AFTN AS WESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DRAW A
RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN INTO PA...RESULTING IN
TEMPS A BIT ABV NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PA
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ASSOC RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ALL
MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AND THUS
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MON-MON
NIGHT.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BUILDING ANOMALOUS
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE
ANOMALOUS +1-2SD 500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 10+ DEGREES APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES MAKING A STRONG RUN AT 70F
DEGREES.
00Z ECENS OUTPUT SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOC WARM/DRY WX
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVR THE EAST COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING
OUR NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
RESULTING IN LINGERING PATCH OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY THIS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS
MY MID MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK.
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SAT EVE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOWERING CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE
SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN LIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SWINGS OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY AT KBFD/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SCTD TO NUMEROUS LATE NIGHT-SUNDAY AM
SHOWERS. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY INVOF KBFD.
MON-WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
306 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RESULTING
IN LINGERING PATCH OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN PA AT 05Z. LATEST RAP
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS TOWARDS DAWN. GIVEN THAT 05Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN
THIS AREA ARE ALREADY VERY LOW...BELIEVE THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG ARND DAYBREAK AS 00Z DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGESTS.
OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS MADE WITH
THE WESTERN CLOUDS NOT MOVING ANY MORE TO THE WEST BUT SEVERE
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...TO THE M30S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WAA ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND AFOREMENTIONED VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
WHILE RETURN FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID 50S AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MILDER SOUTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL/SPLIT PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
3-5 NOVEMBER.
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE THAT A LOW
AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH W/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL
IMPINGE ON THE LOWER LAKES REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
RELATIVELY STRONG SSWLY H85 LLJ SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WAA AND
MSTR TRANSPORT OF NEAR-1-INCH PWS INTO THE UPPER OH VLY/NW PA TO
MAINTAIN A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONTAL/SHOWER BAND IS MADE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SRN STREAM ENERGY TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS STATES
THRU THE TN VLY/SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-MON REMAINS A
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELING OUTPUT. THE
EC/GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS MUCH DEEPER VS
CONSENSUS. PREFER THE OOZ ECENS AND GFS SOLNS WHICH TRACK A
FASTER/WEAKER WAVE WELL SOUTH OF PA MONDAY. THIS APPROACH
CONTINUES TO YIELD LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN PA SUN NITE/MONDAY WITH
THE GREATEST RAIN RISK ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN TUE-THU. THE
ANOMALOUS +1-2SD 500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 10+ DEGREES APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES MAKING A STRONG RUN AT 70F
DEGREES. TEMPS SHOULD START TO TREND COOLER/BACK TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
RESULTING IN LINGERING PATCH OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY THIS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/SC MTNS
MY MID MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK.
SPLIT UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL DIRECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SAT EVE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOWERING CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE
SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN LIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SWINGS OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY AT KBFD/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SCTD TO NUMEROUS LATE NIGHT-SUNDAY AM
SHOWERS. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY INVOF KBFD.
MON-WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.AVIATION...
MAIN LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED THROUGH KDRT AND WILL BEGIN THAT
TAF WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS THERE HAVE ALSO IMPROVED
TO VFR. FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES...IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD BE UNTIL AFTER THE LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH. THE LINE
SHOULD BE INTO THE SITES AROUND 7-9Z AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH
VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS THE
LINE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW HAVE VFR RETURNING BY LATE MORNING BUT THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO LATE GIVEN THAT KDRT IS ALREADY VFR. WILL AMEND
THE TAFS AS NECESSARY BASED ON FUTURE TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
UPDATE... /WATCH EXPANSION FOR SVA NUMBER 525/
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF A SUPERCELL
MOVING THROUGH GILLESPIE COUNTY SUGGESTING A FORWARD SHIFT IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FIVE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WERE ADDED AS
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY REPLACE THE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. HELICITIES ANALYZED IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 200
M2/S2 ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-75 KNOTS AND MU CAPES AT
AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THIS EASTWARD SHIFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
UPDATE...
ROUND TWO OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ONE SEVERE STORM IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 55-70 KNOTS. A PACIFIC FRONT OR DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD NOT
MOVE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 14Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
CLEARING THINGS OUT. WITH AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE FURTHER PROLONGED
CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTAL. EVEN THOUGH THESE TOTALS
ARE NOT HIGH...1-2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO FURTHER QUICK RISES OF
AREA CREEKS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED EXTREME RAINFALL TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 52 KNOTS. DURING THESE
STORMS CIGS AND VBSYS WITH LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING (16Z) SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 77 50 80 53 / 10 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 77 48 80 49 / 10 - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 78 51 81 52 / - 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 75 51 79 52 / 10 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 82 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 75 51 79 51 / 10 10 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 50 82 51 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 77 51 80 51 / - 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 76 53 81 53 / 10 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 78 51 81 53 / - 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 57 79 51 84 54 / - 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1214 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS
CENTER AROUND PRECIP TIMING...CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTHWEST OF THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS THIS EVENING... QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT
TEMPO TERMINAL IMPACTS TO BEGIN AROUND 06Z AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
MOVES IN OFF THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY... CONTINUING TO MONITOR A
BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR DFW TO DRT AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE
REGION. STARTING TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING... WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE VARIES ON
HOW QUICKLY CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS LINE... BUT GENERAL
CONSENSUS SHOWS VFR RETURNING 18-21Z SUNDAY.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN OVERVIEW OF AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOWED A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO WACO. A VERY
GOOD INFLOW INTO THE STORMS IN CENTRAL TEXAS WAS OCCURRING...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MARINE AREAS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16 FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO CENTRAL OK...AND 700 MB DEWPOINTS
GREATER THAN 4 AT CRP AND BRO. IN CONTRAST...A CAP WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SE TEXAS AS SEEN ON THE CRP SOUNDING AND HINTED ON THE LCH
SOUNDING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT THIS EVENING SO FAR AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH AT 930 PM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
LIKE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TEXAS TECH AND HRRR WHICH SHOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BOTH MODELS THEN BRING AN AREA
OF STORMS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...FELT THAT
THE BEST TIMES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY...BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 78 59 75 55 / 90 70 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 80 63 76 57 / 90 90 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 78 67 75 65 / 90 90 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
.UPDATE... /WATCH EXPANSION FOR SVA NUMBER 525/
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT IS FORMING ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF A SUPERCELL
MOVING THROUGH GILLESPIE COUNTY SUGGESTING A FORWARD SHIFT IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FIVE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WERE ADDED AS
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY REPLACE THE SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. HELICITIES ANALYZED IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 200
M2/S2 ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-75 KNOTS AND MU CAPES AT
AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THIS EASTWARD SHIFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
UPDATE...
ROUND TWO OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY AT THE PRESENT TIME. ONE SEVERE STORM IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 55-70 KNOTS. A PACIFIC FRONT OR DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD NOT
MOVE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 14Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
CLEARING THINGS OUT. WITH AN ACTUAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD NOT RECEIVE FURTHER PROLONGED
CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTAL. EVEN THOUGH THESE TOTALS
ARE NOT HIGH...1-2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO FURTHER QUICK RISES OF
AREA CREEKS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED EXTREME RAINFALL TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 52 KNOTS. DURING THESE
STORMS CIGS AND VBSYS WITH LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING (16Z) SATURDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 79 57 77 50 / 70 40 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 80 57 77 48 / 70 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 57 78 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 54 75 51 / 80 30 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 79 53 82 51 / 60 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 55 75 51 / 80 40 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 54 80 50 / 60 10 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 80 57 77 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 81 59 76 53 / 80 60 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 56 78 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 57 79 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MONDAY
AND THAT HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE SEAWARD
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN START TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD, WE
WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE THE
WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALOFT, WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO FILL IN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE SUN
SHINING BRIGHTLY OUT THERE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 60
THIS AFTERNOON.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOUR AIR TEMPERATURE GRIDS AT 930
AM UPDATE. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH MAKES IT WAY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY AT THAT
TIME SO WE ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT MORE ON THE MILD SIDE. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST.
OVERALL, A NICE NIGHT TO BE OUT TRICK OR TREATING. WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR HALLOWEEN, A JACKET MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB: THE PRIMARY ZONAL JETSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
RACES TO THE MARITIMES MONDAY MORNING WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE IN TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING PROBABLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SPREAD
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING AND TRACK OF THAT MID LEVEL
CENTER TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT LEAVES US WITH TWO OPTIONS...IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES--DRY, OR
IF THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MUCH MORE
STRUCTURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, MORE AKIN TO THE 00Z/31
OPERATIONAL ECMWF, THEN WE RECEIVE A DOUSING OF RAIN, AT LEAST
FOR THE DELMARVA AND S NJ MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH MEANS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OF NORMAL. RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT KGED TO NEAR NORMAL KACY AND KILG,
AND ONE HALF TO AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
THROUGH KTTN,KMPO, KABE AND KRDG. NOVEMBER IS GOING TO GET OFF TO
A VERY WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN AROUND 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAYTIME MAX`S POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/31 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/31 GFS MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/31 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
THE WPC MAX/MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50M 50 WITH THE 00Z31 GFS
MEXMOS TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING WITH MAYBE A MID LEVEL
GENERATED WAA SPRINKLE BUT WETTING MEASURABLE (0.01) UNLIKELY I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST, WHEREAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
APPEARS TO BE I-78 NORTHWARD OVER E PA AND NW NJ. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70
KT 700MB WLY SPEED MAX OVER LERIE AT 12Z SUNDAY AND N CENTRAL PA
AT 18Z SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE WORDING AS COVERAGE SCT OR
ISOLATED AND DIDN`T ADD SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST OF I-95.
FWIW...ITS ONLY THE OP GFS/ECMWF THAT OFFERS RAIN NE PA N OF I-78
WITH TRACE OR NIL 00Z/31 UK/GGEM/NAM.
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON (NO RAIN) WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL UP INTO
THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH LATE.
EVENING WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT. RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN VICINITY EASTON MD TO
GEORGETOWN DE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY. NORTH WINDS...SPEEDS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
ITS THE WET 00Z/31 NAM AND ECMWF VERSUS THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED
UK/GGEM/GFS. FOR NOW LETS FIGURE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
UP THROUGH THE DELMARVA TO CAPE MAY NJ BUT WITH AN UNCERTAIN NORTHERN
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE: WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ANY AMOUNTS. POPS MAY NEED A SUBSTANTIAL BOOST
IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. STRUCTURE OF
THE DEPARTING TEXAS SHORT WAVE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
WE DO APPEAR TO BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INDUCING WAA LIFT
WITH RESPECT TO THE RR QUAD OF THE 160KT 250MB JET AT 18Z MONDAY-
WHICH IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REFERENCE TO 250MB
REPRESENTS THE GENERAL UPPER LVL JET STRUCTURE AT THAT TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY RAIN ENDING DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ. CLEARING.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST OF WHAT FOLLOWS IS DIRECT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY TO BE A NON FACTOR AND IN ITS WAKE A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONE COULD THROW MANY SUPERLATIVES
AROUND TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL ALSO. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AFTER
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE OTHERWISE SOUNDINGS ARE DRY.
CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH OUR CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FROM WPC GRIDS. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NOW THAT FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT RDG, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THEN SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST, MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER
IN ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING MAY CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY VCNTY KABE-
KRDG NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
A WEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DELMARVA
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS, MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ AIRPORTS.
VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT EXPECTED KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KRDG/KTTN. NORTH
WIND. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS GROUP OF TAF SITES IS AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PA5TCHY
IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN SOME OF THE NON URBAN AIRPORTS. LIGHT
WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH NEARSHORE INSTABILITY FOR GUSTS AROUND
25 KT TO AFFECT MARINE TRAFFIC TRANSITING IN AND OUT OF PORT,
ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE OUTER WATERS
EAST OF MONMOUTH COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS 25 KT. CONFIDENCE ON 25 KT
GUST OCCURRENCE LOWERS WHEN HEADING SOUTH, DOWN ADJACENT TO CAPE
MAY COUNTY NJ.
SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHWEST AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE.
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY. WE MAY NEED AN SCA FOR THE DE ATLANTIC
WATERS DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1010 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Bulk of steadier rain currently between I-55 and the Mississippi
River, especially in northern Illinois. Have been seeing more in
the way of drizzle and light rain to the east. Main upper wave
still advancing across western Minnesota/Iowa into northern Kansas
per latest water vapor imagery, and with low level jet of 45-50
knots still pointed into central Illinois through mid afternoon,
additional periods of light rain/drizzle are expected to spread
into central Illinois. High-resolution models becoming more
consistent in tapering the rain threat west of I-55 late this
afternoon. Have adjusted the PoP grids for the latest trends,
which included reducing areas west of the Illinois River to slight
chances late this afternoon and dropping them completely there
this evening.
Have some concerns about fog potential for tonight. While the
models are generally drying the column quickly from the top down
this evening, the RAP model maintains a moist column below 1500
feet as an inversion sets up. The HRRR still maintains some of the
stratus deck over the northern CWA much of the evening, but tries
to bring some clearing into west central Illinois. Clearing skies
early enough would favor some fog development as winds become
lighter. Have not added fog mention to the forecast yet, but will
first evaluate the remaining models that are coming in now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Shortwave trof over the Plains states this morning will push into
our area later this afternoon bringing rainy and cool weather to the
forecast area. Impressive low level jet of 50 knots over southwest
Missouri early this morning forecast to shift east into central IL
by late this morning helping to transport moisture north into the
region. Strong low level moisture convergence coupled with decent
upper level divergence will help to keep the rain going over our
area thru early afternoon before we see a trend towards decreasing
POPs from west to east late this afternoon as the 500 mb trof axis
approaches our area. Despite the gusty southerly flow ahead of the
weather disturbance to our west, widespread cloud cover and precip
will keep our temperatures mostly in the 50s this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
00Z forecast models have trended a bit faster with diminishing
chances of rain showers from west to east during this Halloween
evening, while low clouds decrease over central IL later this
evening into overnight and in eastern/SE IL Sunday morning,
though lingering longest southeast of I-70. Weak high pressure
over the Central Plains settles into IL by midday Sunday and into
the ohio river valley by sunset Sunday. Lows tonight range from
lower 40s nw of the IL river, to the upper 40s in eastern IL.
Milder highs Sunday in the mid to upper 60s with mildest readings
in western CWA. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 40s.
00Z forecast models show some upper level ridging into IL on Monday,
and across the Eastern States during Tue/Wed. This will bring milder
highs in the lower 70s Monday, and low to mid 70s Tue/Wed as dry
weather prevails through Wed night. A more unsettled SW upper
level flow during 2nd half of the week along with a cold front
moving through IL around Friday to return chances of showers Thu
through Friday night. Thunderstorms chances look best in southern
IL around Friday. More clouds and chances of showers on Thu gives
a bit cooler highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temps then to
slip through the 60s on Friday behind cold front and cooler more
seasonable 50s in store for next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR cigs in the
12z-16z time frame as rain continues to push across the TAF sites
this morning. Low VFR cigs across the area at the present time,
however, latest surface observations just west of SPI suggest MVFR
and even some IFR cigs already starting to move in to Jacksonville
and believe this trend will continue to spread east as the morning
goes on. Once the cigs drop to MVFR or lower, looks as if there
will be a 4 to 6 hour period of low cigs before the rain moves off
and some drier air starts to work its way east into parts of west
central IL after 23z. CMI and DEC will have the lower cigs the
longest as the weather system tracks to the east of the area this
evening, but feel even over our far east, we will see improving
conditions later tonight as the storm system shifts away from our
area.
Gusty south to southeast winds are expected this morning at 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 23 kts, with winds veering more into a
southwest direction this afternoon. Look for winds to shift more
into a westerly direction this evening with speeds in the 10 to 15
kt range before diminishing to less than 10 kts after 05z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS MORNING...RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF OUR CWA AND IS NOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED BEHIND RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH/WESTERLY FLOW. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLEARING LINE
ALONG LINE FROM IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AND NAM HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON EXTENT/PATTER OF FOG AND
TENDENCY HAS BEEN TOWARD IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1/4SM VIS. THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A 1-2HR
WINDOW OF 1/2SM VIS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD
TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACK WILL FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS. LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE ROCKIES AND INCREASING SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE PERIODS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...WHICH IS ABOUT 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH 80F...ABOUT 20F ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WITH TIME...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC
WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS AND CHANGES FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT LOOKS LIKE A SPAGHETTI CHART AND
THERE IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
SO SUFFICE TO SAY...I AM PLANNING ON MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE
CRH_INIT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH. ESSENTIALLY THE BLEND KEEPS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO DIFFERENT
EXTREMES WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER OR WETTER DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION
YOU CHOOSE.
OF LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COOLER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
BACK EDGE OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS JUST WEST OF KMCK TERMINAL AND
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND 13Z BASED ON CURRENT
FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TIMING AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR QUICKLY WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT KGLD AND WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK (AFTER 13Z) WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS
ARE LESS CERTAIN MOST DAYS DUE TO THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH FOR 3HR. BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH RFW
CRITERIA CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER SW UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. OTHER COMPLICATION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FUELS AFTER
RECENT RAINFALL. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...EXPECTATION SHOULD BE FOR FUELS TO BE FAVORABLE...THOUGH
ITS HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL NEED TO
COORDINATE AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
(PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
554 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough extending from the
northern plains southwest through the southern Rockies and into
Mexico. A shortwave was noted moving east along the Canadian/MT
border. At the surface, ridging has moved off to the east with a
area of low pressure over central TX and a surface trough moving
into the northern plains from the west.
Models show energy cutting off over the southern plains as the
shortwave along the Canadian border propagates east towards the
Great Lakes. This causes the surface trough to move through the
forecast area shifting winds to the west and advecting in dryer air
bringing an end to the precip by mid morning. Meanwhile the upper
low remains south of the forecast area while the mean westerlies
become zonal to the north. So with no real forcing and relatively
dry air over the area, the weather is expected to remain quiet
through tonight once the rain stops. The one thing to watch out for
is the development of fog overnight. With recent rains and winds
becoming light tonight, there could be some patchy radiational fog.
Objective guidance doesn`t seem to excited about fog at the airports
and the SREF ensemble only shows a small probability for
visibilities below 3 miles. Because of this there is not a great
deal of certainty in its formation. Additionally if the boundary
layer mixes out this afternoon, that could diminish fog potential by
scouring out the boundary layer moisture. So will let later shifts
evaluate fog potential for tonight.
Models indicate some warm air advection at 925 MB this afternoon
with a westerly downslope wind. Because of this have bumped up highs
today across the western two thirds of the forecast area where there
should be some afternoon sun. Based on 925 MB temps, afternoon highs
could approach 70 degrees out west. The forecast has low to mid 60s
for highs expecting limited mixing, but this could be on the cool
side if cloud cover scatters out in the morning rather than the
early afternoon. Lows tonight are expected to be from 40 to 45 with
no real cold air advection seen in the models.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Zonal mid level flow pattern Sunday through Tuesday brings back the
dry conditions across the central plains. Broad sfc trough develops
over the western high plains, veering winds to the southwest at 10
to 15 mph. Warmest areas over central KS may see the h85 temps at
15C mixing closer to the sfc with readings in the middle to upper
70s. Low to middle 70s are likely elsewhere. Overnight lows are as
much as 20 degrees warmer compared to near freezing temps
experienced lately, falling to the lower 50s.
Next system to bring back rain chances to the area is still on track
for late Wednesday evening through Friday as a broad upper trough
lifts embedded vorticity maxima through the region. Onset of the
precip is dependent on how quickly Gulf moisture saturates the dry
airmass in place. The latest Canadian and ECMWF runs are similar
with the track of the trough axis being slower with the optimal rain
chances Thursday evening. The prominent area for isentropic lift is
focused further south with the faster track of the GFS, bringing
lesser QPF amounts to our area. Both guidance is similar though in
the cold front reaching north central KS by Thursday afternoon. The
dynamic lift and available moisture in play continues to signal
up to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE present around 700 mb, while effective
shear maximizes over 50 kts. A few thunderstorms are a good
possibility especially on Thursday afternoon and evening. Behind
the frontal boundary, a few showers may linger into Friday. At
this point the cool air returns with readings back into the 50s
for highs.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
The forecast anticipates a gradual improvement in CIGS through the
morning as dry air advects in from the west. Unfortunately the
models are uncertain how fast the improvement will occur. With
satellite showing the low CIGS back in western KS still, have
tended to go with the slower RAP solutions which would scatter
the low clouds out mid afternoon. I think the IFR CIGS should
improve to at least MVFR by the late morning. If we stay overcast
for much of the day and do not mix out the boundary layer, the
chances for fog Sunday morning will likely increase.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1152 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ATTM. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
INSENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE. THE RECENT HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BROUGHT INTO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AROUND 19Z OR 3 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT HRRR RUNS. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE AND THIS
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH SATURATING
FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER
FOG HAS DISSIPATED. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION
AND CENTRAL KY ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND PER REGIONAL AWOS AND
ASOS OBSERVATIONS...AND ARE LIKELY VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES
AT THE MOST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP
THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WV AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS
MORNING...THE IMPACT OF THESE CLOUD ARE KEEPING VALLEY TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 30S. IN FACT...SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THIS
FEATURE FURTHER PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THROUGH THE
DAY...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS SEPARATED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER TX ALONG THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. AS THESE TWO FEATURES SPLIT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE
OH VALLEY...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A NOTICEABLE LACK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER KENTUCKY. THUS EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO TRACK INTO THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LACKING...MEASURABLE RAINFALL SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY TAKE A BIT
TO SATURATE AS QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE UPON ARRIVAL OF
THE SHOWERS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AGAINST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL STALL BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE
AND TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER TX DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EAST BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND
FEATURE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY MAY STAY DRY SUNDAY AS THE
SPLIT OF THE TWO FEATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
KEEP MINIMAL QPF VALUES OVER THE NORTH. A BIT FURTHER NORTHERN
TRACK WILL BRING POPS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN KY A BIT
EARLIER. OVERALL...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS
WELL...THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION FOR QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS
VERY REASONABLE WITH AMOUNTS BEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN LESS TO THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY.
DURING THIS PROCESS THE 00Z ECMWF IS A NOTCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS AND GEM. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHILE A LARGE
TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RIDGING HOLDS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ABOVE
KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH OPENS UP AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...QUICKER AND STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN
THE GFS. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS. THE SIMILARITIES EARLY ON...AND LATER A
WIDENING SPREAD...MAKE A BLEND OF MODELS A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS LOW WEAKENS AND EXITS BY TUESDAY
MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A BENIGN AND SEASONABLY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...
ALONG WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE
OF RAIN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CR EXTENDED INIT GRIDS MAINLY
TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO BROADENED THE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SOME FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER 14Z. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS SME WILL
HAVE SOME DENSE FOG LINGER A BIT LONGER AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE
TAF THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT SO WENT WITH AN MVFR VIS FOR
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LATER INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES...EXPECT IFR AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS DUE TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN EXITING THE AREA. ALSO...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTER MN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE RAIN AREA EXITING FAR
EASTERN MN AFTER 17Z. IT WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WISCONISN UNTIL
21Z OR SO. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER ISSUE AFFECTING
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. IT IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND HELP DRIVE THE INITIAL TROUGH EAST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THIS WAVE...AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE WITH GFS AND MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE NOON AND
EXITING TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN
THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH SHOWERS ENDING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL THROUGH THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S DURING PEAK TRICK OR TREATING
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
CLOSING OUT THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AS A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE HEIGHT
FALLS OVER WRN NOAM...THERE WILL BE A LARGE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER
ERN NOAM AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME AT US IN TWO
PARTS...THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NW WED/WED
NIGHT...WITH PART TWO TRAVELING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THU/FRI.
STARTING OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN H85
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO IN EXCESS OF 12C AS SW WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...925 TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH WITH
FAVORABLE SW WINDS THAT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
WRN MN COULD VERY WELL SEE 70 TO START NOVEMBER. FARTHER
EAST...LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD BACK HIGHS IN WRN WI. DID
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DID KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN ERN MN/WRN WI...GETTING THEM CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY...WE WILL START WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER US...BUT WILL START TO
SEE THE RIDGE BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED STRONG WRLY
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
COLORADO...WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS HERE LOOKING TO GENERATE A
RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SET US
IN A VERY MILD AND DRY WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE ONE GOING TO OUR NW WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALL 31.00 GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE
FRONT...DID BOOST HIGHS ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS A DAY NEXT WEEK TO SEE RECORD HIGHS...THIS WILL BE THE
DAY TO DO IT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT STC/MSP/EAU ARE 72/74/74
RESPECTIVELY AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...THESE VALUES COULD VERY WELL BE CHALLENGED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE LOOK TOO WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SEE
ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DRY.
INSTEAD...RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE GET BEHIND THE
FRONT. PART TWO OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
THU/FRI...WITH A POST FRONTAL DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKING TO BECOME
ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF WRN WI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. P-TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA IS DIGGING
A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IS BEGINNING TO EJECT THE LIGHT RAIN
AREA MORE NORTHEAST. STILL SEE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LIGHT
RAIN...EXITING EAST CENTRAL MN AROUND 17Z AND THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN AFTER 21Z OR SO. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR 15Z-18Z MOST AREAS. VFR
SHOULD RETURN TO THE WESTERN AREAS SHORTLY THEREAFTER...SPREADING
EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SPREAD AT
LEAST SOME MID CLOUDS BACK OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW AND EVENTUALLY W/NW WITH
FROPA FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END THROUGH 16Z AND THE ATTENDANT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY 19Z WITH VFR
DEVELOPING BY 23Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE W-NW WITH FROPA
AFTER 23Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
942 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ENOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATON AROUND THE BILLINGS AREA SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROPS ON WINDSHIELDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
MEASURABLE RAIN. CLOUDY AND COOL MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
LIVINGSTON AREA WITH MODELS PROJECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE
FALLS MOVING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET AND THEN BEGINNING TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINOR
UPDATE TO ADD SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. BORSUM
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIND
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS BAND HAVE REPORTED UP TO 0.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION THE PRECIPITATION
HAS PUSHED STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION WINDS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MORNING...MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE AT 3 AM. HRRR INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SAG SOUTH AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE HARDIN TO BROADUS TO
SHERIDAN AREA.
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH
ALL NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BUILD BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS...AND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH FOR BIG TIMBER
AND HARLOWTON. FURTHER EAST EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY NIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE...MAINLY ON HIGHER EXPOSED
HILLTOPS. AS WITH THIS MORNING THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY BUT TURNS RIGHT OFF THE
PACIFIC WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA.
WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE IN THE DAY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LIKELY
POPS FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THOSE PLANNING BACK COUNTRY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
AWARE THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. ALSO...PRECIPITATION
ON WEST FACING SLOPES COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE DIRT ROADS
DIFFICULT TO DRIVE ON. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS AS WELL AS WITH ENSEMBLE AND HISTORICAL
ANALOGS. THIS IS LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID WEEK.
CONSENSUS QPF IS LEANING TOWARD A WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND A
HALF OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS PACKAGE REFLECTS
THIS CONFIDENCE.
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR BEING PULLED IN
FROM THE NORTH AS THE SURFACE TO 850MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
WYOMING ON MONDAY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND IS
RELATED TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS. IN OTHER
WORDS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
FALL AS SNOW AND WHERE IT IS WEAK A MIX OR JUST PLAIN RAIN MAY
FALL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EACH MODEL HAS SOME VARIED
OPINIONS ON THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THUS WHERE THE MOST COOLING WILL
OCCUR AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 30S ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL THE STORM IS IN PROGRESS.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW LOWERING OF
SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONGEST SET
OF DYNAMICS PUSH OVER THE AREA.
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME MORNING ROAD CONDITION ISSUES
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO SEE THE WORST ROAD CONDITIONS ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
FROM BILLINGS WEST. AS FAR AS HIGHLITES ARE CONCERNED THE LATEST
QPF/SNOW TOTALS WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW HIGHLITES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE CONCERNS WILL
MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF MAKING ANY WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY TO TRY AND NARROW DOWN THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING BUILDING IN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUMPING ON SOME FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING
SKIES AS THEY PROG LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR THIS SEASON IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PROGGED IN SOME SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THAT COULD BRING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND MORE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO SATURDAY.
CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUN. THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE NE BIGHORNS. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. FOR SUN MORNING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS
OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS WITH AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER
THE CRAZYS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING FOR KMLS
AND KSHR. GUSTY W TO SW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 KT. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 046/063 039/052 035/040 029/039 022/040 025/044
1/E 01/B 24/R 77/O 76/O 21/B 11/B
LVM 060 048/060 034/047 031/037 025/035 020/040 023/043
3/W 22/R 36/O 98/O 85/S 21/B 11/B
HDN 065 042/065 035/054 035/043 029/038 023/042 023/046
2/W 11/E 24/O 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
MLS 062 045/065 038/055 035/041 029/037 024/042 023/043
1/N 20/B 33/R 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
4BQ 063 043/066 036/056 036/047 030/038 025/045 025/047
1/N 01/B 23/R 65/R 54/S 21/B 11/B
BHK 058 042/063 034/054 034/042 027/037 022/041 021/042
0/N 20/N 22/R 75/O 55/S 21/B 11/B
SHR 064 040/064 034/052 031/046 027/037 022/043 022/046
1/E 01/N 24/O 55/O 66/S 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
412 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIND
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS BAND HAVE REPORTED UP TO 0.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION THE PRECIPITATION
HAS PUSHED STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION WINDS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MORNING...MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE AT 3 AM. HRRR INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SAG SOUTH AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE HARDIN TO BROADUS TO
SHERIDAN AREA.
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH
ALL NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BUILD BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS...AND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH FOR BIG TIMBER
AND HARLOWTON. FURTHER EAST EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY NIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE...MAINLY ON HIGHER EXPOSED
HILLTOPS. AS WITH THIS MORNING THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY BUT TURNS RIGHT OFF THE
PACIFIC WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA.
WITH THE WARM START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE IN THE DAY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LIKELY
POPS FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THOSE PLANNING BACK COUNTRY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
AWARE THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. ALSO...PRECIPITATION
ON WEST FACING SLOPES COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE DIRT ROADS
DIFFICULT TO DRIVE ON. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS AS WELL AS WITH ENSEMBLE AND HISTORICAL
ANALOGS. THIS IS LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID WEEK.
CONSENSUS QPF IS LEANING TOWARD A WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND A
HALF OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS PACKAGE REFLECTS
THIS CONFIDENCE.
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR BEING PULLED IN
FROM THE NORTH AS THE SURFACE TO 850MB LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
WYOMING ON MONDAY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND IS
RELATED TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS. IN OTHER
WORDS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
FALL AS SNOW AND WHERE IT IS WEAK A MIX OR JUST PLAIN RAIN MAY
FALL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EACH MODEL HAS SOME VARIED
OPINIONS ON THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THUS WHERE THE MOST COOLING WILL
OCCUR AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 30S ITS GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL THE STORM IS IN PROGRESS.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW LOWERING OF
SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONGEST SET
OF DYNAMICS PUSH OVER THE AREA.
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME MORNING ROAD CONDITION ISSUES
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO SEE THE WORST ROAD CONDITIONS ISSUES...ESPECIALLY
FROM BILLINGS WEST. AS FAR AS HIGHLITES ARE CONCERNED THE LATEST
QPF/SNOW TOTALS WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW HIGHLITES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE CONCERNS WILL
MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF MAKING ANY WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY TO TRY AND NARROW DOWN THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING BUILDING IN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUMPING ON SOME FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING
SKIES AS THEY PROG LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE COLDEST MORNING SO FAR THIS SEASON IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PROGGED IN SOME SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THAT COULD BRING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND MORE PRECIPITATION GOING INTO SATURDAY.
CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLVM THROUGH TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE
LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KMLS AND KSHR AS A 40 TO 50KT WESTERLY JET
AROUND 1500FT AGL OR LOWER MOVES OVER THESE TERMINALS... WITH KBIL
ALSO APPROACHING 25KTS OF SHEAR AS WELL. VICINITY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH HIGHER CONFIDENCES AT KBIL AND KLVM TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. MROWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 046/063 039/052 035/040 029/039 022/040 025/044
1/E 01/B 24/R 77/O 76/O 21/B 11/B
LVM 060 048/060 034/047 031/037 025/035 020/040 023/043
3/W 22/R 36/O 98/O 85/S 21/B 11/B
HDN 065 042/065 035/054 035/043 029/038 023/042 023/046
2/W 11/E 24/O 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
MLS 062 045/065 038/055 035/041 029/037 024/042 023/043
1/N 20/B 33/R 77/O 76/S 21/B 11/B
4BQ 063 043/066 036/056 036/047 030/038 025/045 025/047
2/W 01/B 23/R 65/R 54/S 21/B 11/B
BHK 058 042/063 034/054 034/042 027/037 022/041 021/042
0/N 20/N 22/R 75/O 55/S 21/B 11/B
SHR 064 040/064 034/052 031/046 027/037 022/043 022/046
2/W 01/N 24/R 55/O 66/S 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST. NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FOG REPORTED WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND A
MILE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING WILL BE AN END TO THE RAINFALL.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST. IT LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY
BREAK.
AS THE CLOUDS MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THE AREA OF FOG ALSO APPROACHES.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECT THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SOME TOO. EACH
RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. THE BAND OF FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAIRLY NARROW. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AS LOW AS THEY
WERE EARLIER. THEN THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. THIS IN TURN COULD MAKE IT SO THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS HAS ALREADY
TURNED WINDS A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. WITH WINDS TURNING
WESTERLY ALREADY THE FOG WILL HAVE A LITTLE HARDER TIME FORMING. AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT WITH WEST WINDS THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY WELL. THE WEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THIS PERIOD HAS A CLEAR SEPARATION IN WEATHER REGIMES...RANGING FROM
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...THEN TURNING
COLDER AND WET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ISSUES WITH THE START TO NOVEMBER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD 70S EACH
DAY FAVORS A MORE MID-SEPTEMBER FEEL. DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL BE
A KEY DRIVER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLE PUSHING SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY
OTHER THAN ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS.
CHANGES START TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS COOLER
AIR WILL SHOW ITS CARDS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
BUT THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM. NONE-THE-LESS...THE FRONT WILL PULL
THROUGH NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT A
DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
GFS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS RECORD OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT. IT GIVES REASON TO FORETELL A
POTENTIAL GOOD RAIN WILL AGAIN WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
SIGNS OF COLD ENOUGH AIR BY FRIDAY AM THAT SOME WHITE STUFF IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HAVEN/T
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT...BUT DID ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THEY
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE HAVE BEEN NEARBY STATIONS THAT HAVE HAD LIFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS
COULD COME IN...BUT EXPECT THAT THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE
SOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
THEN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
927 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LIGHT RAIN ENDING A BIT SOONER OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THEREFORE...TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS BANK THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND THEIR SOLUTIONS
WRAP AROUND THIS STRATUS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MOST LOCATIONS...STARTING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR FAR WEST. BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA CONTINUES EAST ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK
WARM FRONT.PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z FOR ALL BUT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z...THEN
QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN INCREASING MIXED LAYER
COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP
ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND LOOKS TO AID STRONG WINDS SUSTAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.NAM BUFKIT SHOWS 35-40KTS AVAILABLE AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH THE GFS BUFKIT 40-45KTS. OPTED TO
GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST...STARTING
THE WEST AT 11Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF MY CENTRAL AND EAST 15Z.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-
DAY AS PRESSURE RISES DECREASE ONCE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
23-00Z ELSEWHERE...OR 6-7PM AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET.
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH WEAK CAA DEPICTED
FOR TODAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
NEXT WAVE IN OUR SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS
THIS MORNINGS FEATURE...AND ALSO TAKES A MORE NORTH TRACK CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BY ACROSS MY FAR NORTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
TYPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BY ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND TEMPS ALOFT WELL ABOVE 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO POSSIBLY MANIFEST ITSELF IN TWO ROUNDS. THE FIRST
POSSIBLE ROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SECOND POTENTIAL ROUND OF
THE STORM WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. WHILE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND OF THE STORM ARE CLOSE
TO CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS AND ARE LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT AND WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ANY CHANGES IN TIMING IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KISN AND KMOT THIS MORNING.
KBIS AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
STRATUS DECK LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST AREA
WIDE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-032>034-041-042-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS BANK THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND THEIR SOLUTIONS
WRAP AROUND THIS STRATUS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MOST LOCATIONS...STARTING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR FAR WEST. BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA CONTINUES EAST ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK
WARM FRONT.PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z FOR ALL BUT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z...THEN
QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN INCREASING MIXED LAYER
COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP
ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND LOOKS TO AID STRONG WINDS SUSTAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.NAM BUFKIT SHOWS 35-40KTS AVAILABLE AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH THE GFS BUFKIT 40-45KTS. OPTED TO
GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST...STARTING
THE WEST AT 11Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF MY CENTRAL AND EAST 15Z.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-
DAY AS PRESSURE RISES DECREASE ONCE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
23-00Z ELSEWHERE...OR 6-7PM AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET.
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH WEAK CAA DEPICTED
FOR TODAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
NEXT WAVE IN OUR SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS
THIS MORNINGS FEATURE...AND ALSO TAKES A MORE NORTH TRACK CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BY ACROSS MY FAR NORTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
TYPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BY ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND TEMPS ALOFT WELL ABOVE 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO POSSIBLY MANIFEST ITSELF IN TWO ROUNDS. THE FIRST
POSSIBLE ROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SECOND POTENTIAL ROUND OF
THE STORM WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. WHILE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND OF THE STORM ARE CLOSE
TO CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS AND ARE LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT AND WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ANY CHANGES IN TIMING IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KISN AND KMOT THIS MORNING.
KBIS AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
STRATUS DECK LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST AREA
WIDE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-032>034-041-042-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Main shortwave was moving across southeast Iowa and northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Convection over the lower Mississippi
Valley has been robbing a bit of the moisture advection, resulting
in a fair amount of dry conditions over areas east of I-57 the last
few hours. Back edge of the rain shield now generally along the
Illinois River, and the short-range models have been fairly
consistent with drying out most areas west of I-55 by sunset and the
eastern CWA by 10 pm. Refinements in the hourly precipitation grids
have taken this into account, and have gone with a dry forecast
after midnight.
Some concern remains with the fog potential. Latest RAP and HRRR
continues to advertise a moist layer of about 1,000 feet off the
surface underneath an inversion, and shows a rather expansive area
of dense fog mainly along and west of the Illinois River, where
rainfall from the current system has been in the 1/2 to 1 inch
range. The RAP humidity plots seem to be running a bit fast with the
clearing, as the AWIPS timing tool has the clearing line coming into
the western CWA toward 11 pm or so. If the winds stay up a bit, this
could keep the fog from getting out of hand, but have added a
mention of patchy fog for now west of I-55 after midnight. Evening
shift can make adjustments if it appears the clearing is coming in
faster than expected, which would increase the odds of fog
formation.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
The upper low over far NW Minnesota/S Manitoba will become
progressive by Sunday morning, as the upper flow evolves into a
zonal pattern across the northern half of the country. The faster
departure of that low to the east will help usher in much drier air
aloft. Skies should become sunny across our entire forecast area on
Sunday, but some patchy morning fog could delay that for areas
northwest of the Illinois river. There is potential for locally
dense fog around sunrise, but winds could prevent that if they
remain up late tonight. Have included patchy fog early Sunday
morning for now, to trend that into the forecast.
Warmer conditions are expected to begin on Sunday, but winds will
not become southerly until Sunday night, so the arrival of warmer
air will be delayed somewhat. Highs should still climb into the mid
to upper 60s, with the warmer side of that range in our SW counties
toward Jacksonville.
A southern stream upper level low progressing from eastern Texas
toward Virginia on Monday will push a shield of precip close to
southern IL, but we expect to remain dry as the feature departs to
the East Coast Monday night. The overall result will be upper level
ridging developing across IL by late Monday afternoon, with
rising heights and warmer temps Monday. Highs should climb into
the lower 70s in most areas.
The unseasonably warm conditions will continue on Tues and Wed
under a persistent SW flow aloft and southerly surface winds.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s both days.
The long wave trough in the western states will shift east over the
Rockies on Wed night, then eject a surface low toward Illinois on
Thursday. Rain chances will increase from west to east during the
day, with likely chances of rain Thursday night into Friday, as low
pressure and a cold front pass across Illinois. Showers could linger
Friday night behind the front, but most areas should return to dry
conditions for Saturday. Much cooler air will arrive behind that
system, with temperatures returning to near normal. Temps on Friday
will be steady or falling in the afternoon as NW winds crank up.
Despite increasing sunshine on Saturday, highs should remain in the
mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR ceilings have become commonplace east of a KBMI-KSTL line at
midday, as bulk of the rain and lower clouds have been to the
west. Area of IFR ceilings not too far behind though, and these
will be shifting eastward, although with time the heights may rise
to above 1,000 feet. Following passage of an upper disturbance
this evening, ceilings are expected to lift and clouds will
scatter out in many areas by 06Z. Some indications of some fog
potential in west central Illinois where skies should be first to
clear. Right now, winds are expected to stay up enough to keep fog
from becoming widespread, but have added some tempo MVFR
visibilities at KPIA/KSPI late tonight to address this concern.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Bulk of steadier rain currently between I-55 and the Mississippi
River, especially in northern Illinois. Have been seeing more in
the way of drizzle and light rain to the east. Main upper wave
still advancing across western Minnesota/Iowa into northern Kansas
per latest water vapor imagery, and with low level jet of 45-50
knots still pointed into central Illinois through mid afternoon,
additional periods of light rain/drizzle are expected to spread
into central Illinois. High-resolution models becoming more
consistent in tapering the rain threat west of I-55 late this
afternoon. Have adjusted the PoP grids for the latest trends,
which included reducing areas west of the Illinois River to slight
chances late this afternoon and dropping them completely there
this evening.
Have some concerns about fog potential for tonight. While the
models are generally drying the column quickly from the top down
this evening, the RAP model maintains a moist column below 1500
feet as an inversion sets up. The HRRR still maintains some of the
stratus deck over the northern CWA much of the evening, but tries
to bring some clearing into west central Illinois. Clearing skies
early enough would favor some fog development as winds become
lighter. Have not added fog mention to the forecast yet, but will
first evaluate the remaining models that are coming in now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Shortwave trof over the Plains states this morning will push into
our area later this afternoon bringing rainy and cool weather to the
forecast area. Impressive low level jet of 50 knots over southwest
Missouri early this morning forecast to shift east into central IL
by late this morning helping to transport moisture north into the
region. Strong low level moisture convergence coupled with decent
upper level divergence will help to keep the rain going over our
area thru early afternoon before we see a trend towards decreasing
POPs from west to east late this afternoon as the 500 mb trof axis
approaches our area. Despite the gusty southerly flow ahead of the
weather disturbance to our west, widespread cloud cover and precip
will keep our temperatures mostly in the 50s this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
00Z forecast models have trended a bit faster with diminishing
chances of rain showers from west to east during this Halloween
evening, while low clouds decrease over central IL later this
evening into overnight and in eastern/SE IL Sunday morning,
though lingering longest southeast of I-70. Weak high pressure
over the Central Plains settles into IL by midday Sunday and into
the ohio river valley by sunset Sunday. Lows tonight range from
lower 40s nw of the IL river, to the upper 40s in eastern IL.
Milder highs Sunday in the mid to upper 60s with mildest readings
in western CWA. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 40s.
00Z forecast models show some upper level ridging into IL on Monday,
and across the Eastern States during Tue/Wed. This will bring milder
highs in the lower 70s Monday, and low to mid 70s Tue/Wed as dry
weather prevails through Wed night. A more unsettled SW upper
level flow during 2nd half of the week along with a cold front
moving through IL around Friday to return chances of showers Thu
through Friday night. Thunderstorms chances look best in southern
IL around Friday. More clouds and chances of showers on Thu gives
a bit cooler highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temps then to
slip through the 60s on Friday behind cold front and cooler more
seasonable 50s in store for next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR ceilings have become commonplace east of a KBMI-KSTL line at
midday, as bulk of the rain and lower clouds have been to the
west. Area of IFR ceilings not too far behind though, and these
will be shifting eastward, although with time the heights may rise
to above 1,000 feet. Following passage of an upper disturbance
this evening, ceilings are expected to lift and clouds will
scatter out in many areas by 06Z. Some indications of some fog
potential in west central Illinois where skies should be first to
clear. Right now, winds are expected to stay up enough to keep fog
from becoming widespread, but have added some tempo MVFR
visibilities at KPIA/KSPI late tonight to address this concern.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR CWA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WESTERN FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR EASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS MORNING...RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF OUR CWA AND IS NOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED BEHIND RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH/WESTERLY FLOW. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLEARING LINE
ALONG LINE FROM IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AND NAM HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON EXTENT/PATTER OF FOG AND
TENDENCY HAS BEEN TOWARD IMPROVEMENT ABOVE 1/4SM VIS. THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A 1-2HR
WINDOW OF 1/2SM VIS. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD
TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY FALLING AND BY SUNRISE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA.
TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACK WILL FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS. LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE ROCKIES AND INCREASING SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT GOOD WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE PERIODS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...WHICH IS ABOUT 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH 80F...ABOUT 20F ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WITH TIME...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC
WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS AND CHANGES FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT LOOKS LIKE A SPAGHETTI CHART AND
THERE IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
SO SUFFICE TO SAY...I AM PLANNING ON MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE
CRH_INIT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH. ESSENTIALLY THE BLEND KEEPS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO DIFFERENT
EXTREMES WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER OR WETTER DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION
YOU CHOOSE.
OF LITTLE MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COOLER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK SURACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWEST RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WINDS
ARE LESS CERTAIN MOST DAYS DUE TO THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH FOR 3HR. BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH RFW
CRITERIA CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER SW UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. OTHER COMPLICATION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FUELS AFTER
RECENT RAINFALL. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...EXPECTATION SHOULD BE FOR FUELS TO BE FAVORABLE...THOUGH
ITS HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL NEED TO
COORDINATE AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
(PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
456 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 452 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
WAKE LOW HAS PRODUCED QUITE GUSTY SLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES TODAY. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM VERY
WELL WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO PRECIP AMOUNTS TODAY. HAS BEEN A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SRN PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...BUT ALL IN ALL THINKING IS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
MINIMALLY IMPACTED. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AS MESO LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
AFTER THIS EVENING...BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. UPPER LOW TO DRIFT ENE INTO TN RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER TOUCH OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
WRN KY...BUT IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW LIKE HIGHER RAIN CHCS SHOULD BE
S/E OF OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
High pressure will be situated from the New England states down into
our area starting on Tuesday and there will be weak ridge aloft. The
flow aloft transitions to southwesterly over the next couple of days
as a large trough crashes into California and organizes itself over
the 4 corners region. Southerly low level flow strengthens and
higher sfc moisture advects into the region. Dewpoints eventually
end up in the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday night and that
moisture stays with us through the end of the week.
We will stay dry through Wednesday and rather warm with above normal
highs in the lower to mid 70s. By Thursday, precipitation is slated
to start moving in from the southwest in conjunction perturbationsassociated
with the incoming mid level trough.
Right now it appears the best chances for rain on Thursday will be
over southeast MO. Better chances look to arrive Thursday night and
into Friday as the mid level system lifts east northeast with time
and eventually phases into the northern stream, and a sfc low
develops over TX and moves northeast. But there are still timing
differences to deal with between the model solutions so there is
room for adjustments.
Although there are differences in QPF amounts between the GFS/ECMWF,
the GFS continues to indicates fairly high precipitation amts
conjunction with high PWs. Even though it may be a bit overdone, we
will have to continue watching this event for any flooding
potential.
The front associated with this system moves east of the area by
Friday night. Much cooler weather is expected for the weekend. Some
models/model runs tried to indicate Saturday staying wet as the
frontal boundary stalls to our south and we end up in some type of
overrunning event. However, the newest GFS run indicates a dry
weekend and latest ECMWF has backed off considerably. So will lower
POPS for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 452 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR cigs prevail and as pcpn develops in Ky, MVFR vsbys will
follow. Otherwise, overnight, drizzle/fog will likewise restrict
vsbys, probably staying in MVFR range but will monitor closely.
The weather system departs to the east tmrw, so gradually
improving conditions to VFR will occur thru the am/into the pm
hours.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
451 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2015
...Light Rain Showers for Halloween...
Current radar trends indicate that most trick-or-treaters over the
area will run into some light rain showers this evening. The most
steady rainfall still looks to occur beyond 8pm and through the
early morning hours tonight. Also winds will be a bit breezy this
evening for trick-or-treaters with occassional gusts between 15-20
mph. Temperatures look to remain mild in the upper 50s/lower 60s
this evening.
Overall, by the time the steady rains end late tonight, southern IN
and north central KY can generally expect between 0.05" and .25" of
rainfall. South central KY will see a bit more in the .25" to .5"
range. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 50s.
Small rain chances (20-30%) will hang around over south central KY
for Sunday/Sunday night while the rest of the region goes dry. These
rain chances will be courtesy of an upper low passing well to our
south across the southern U.S. Models have trended much farther
south with the precip shield so really scaled back POPs over our
area in coordination with neighbors this forecast issuance.
Due to lesser or no precip chances and less low clouds likely over
much of the area for Sun, increased temps to the mid 60s to around
70 for highs. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some folks top 70
degrees Sun afternoon. Sun night we`ll remain relatively mild in
the upper 40s to mid 50s for lows.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2015
Deterministic models continue to indicate a closed low just
southwest of our forecast area Monday morning, with it forecast to
shift east of our longitude some time during the day. Will continue
to carry rain chances across our south, as some rain showers still
are possible until we can get that low east of us. Monday night
through at least Wednesday night continue to look dry as ridging
builds across the region, allowing for a warmup.
Models have trended weaker with their solution of a closed low over
the western U.S., which would imply a more progressive flow of the
trough out there eastward. That shift would bring the higher
moisture plume sandwiched between that low and our ridge midweek
over us quicker, and allow for better rain chances for the end of
the work week. Still not sold on this scenario just yet, as would
like to see how things play out for the west, but will lean closer
to the SuperBlend today, making for good rain chances into the next
weekend. Temperatures will depend on how much cloudiness and rain
gets in here as well, so will run with blended guidance here as well.
&&
.AVIATION (21Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 450 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2015
Sent out a round of TAF amendments to include some low-level wind
shear at each of the sites now. Have had some reports of turbulence,
but no shear just yet. Still model time height sections as well as
latest RAP vertical wind profiles indicate should be 35-40 knot
winds at 1500-2000 feet above the ground. These stronger winds aloft
should continue into the evening hours before subsiding. Rains
showers are not causing restrictions this hour, but the low-level
moistening will be enough to bring cigs down into at least the IFR
range overnight for all sites. Clouds could linger later than in
current TAF, but will re-assess that over the coming TAFs.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
153 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. MAINLY SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MORE INTENSE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ATTM. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
INSENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE. THE RECENT HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BROUGHT INTO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AROUND 19Z OR 3 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT HRRR RUNS. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE AND THIS
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH SATURATING
FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER
FOG HAS DISSIPATED. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION
AND CENTRAL KY ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND PER REGIONAL AWOS AND
ASOS OBSERVATIONS...AND ARE LIKELY VIRGA OR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES
AT THE MOST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP
THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WV AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS
MORNING...THE IMPACT OF THESE CLOUD ARE KEEPING VALLEY TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 30S. IN FACT...SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THIS
FEATURE FURTHER PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THROUGH THE
DAY...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS SEPARATED BY A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND ALSO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER TX ALONG THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. AS THESE TWO FEATURES SPLIT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE
OH VALLEY...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A NOTICEABLE LACK OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER KENTUCKY. THUS EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO TRACK INTO THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LACKING...MEASURABLE RAINFALL SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY TAKE A BIT
TO SATURATE AS QUITE A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE UPON ARRIVAL OF
THE SHOWERS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AGAINST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL STALL BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE
AND TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE MENTIONED LOW OVER TX DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EAST BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND
FEATURE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY MAY STAY DRY SUNDAY AS THE
SPLIT OF THE TWO FEATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
KEEP MINIMAL QPF VALUES OVER THE NORTH. A BIT FURTHER NORTHERN
TRACK WILL BRING POPS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN KY A BIT
EARLIER. OVERALL...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS
WELL...THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION FOR QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS
VERY REASONABLE WITH AMOUNTS BEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN LESS TO THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY.
DURING THIS PROCESS THE 00Z ECMWF IS A NOTCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS AND GEM. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHILE A LARGE
TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RIDGING HOLDS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ABOVE
KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH OPENS UP AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...QUICKER AND STRONGER IN THE ECMWF THAN
THE GFS. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS. THE SIMILARITIES EARLY ON...AND LATER A
WIDENING SPREAD...MAKE A BLEND OF MODELS A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS LOW WEAKENS AND EXITS BY TUESDAY
MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A BENIGN AND SEASONABLY WARM HIGH PRESSURE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...
ALONG WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE
OF RAIN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CR EXTENDED INIT GRIDS MAINLY
TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO BROADENED THE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORK INTO
AND ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD VFR WITH SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND
WITH FURTHER SATURATION CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT BETWEEN
21Z AND 4Z. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA OR DEVELOP
BY AROUND 00Z WITH THIS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...DETERIORATION
TO MVFR AND THEN IFR SHOULD FOLLOW. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN EXITING THE AREA. ALSO...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTER MN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE RAIN AREA EXITING FAR
EASTERN MN AFTER 17Z. IT WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WISCONISN UNTIL
21Z OR SO. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER ISSUE AFFECTING
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE DRIFTING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. IT IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND HELP DRIVE THE INITIAL TROUGH EAST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THIS WAVE...AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL COMPROMISE WITH GFS AND MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE NOON AND
EXITING TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN
THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE MN PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH SHOWERS ENDING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL THROUGH THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S DURING PEAK TRICK OR TREATING
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK TO BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
CLOSING OUT THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AS A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE HEIGHT
FALLS OVER WRN NOAM...THERE WILL BE A LARGE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER
ERN NOAM AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WRN TROUGH WILL COME AT US IN TWO
PARTS...THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR NW WED/WED
NIGHT...WITH PART TWO TRAVELING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THU/FRI.
STARTING OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN H85
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO IN EXCESS OF 12C AS SW WINDS AT THIS LEVEL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...925 TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH WITH
FAVORABLE SW WINDS THAT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
WRN MN COULD VERY WELL SEE 70 TO START NOVEMBER. FARTHER
EAST...LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD BACK HIGHS IN WRN WI. DID
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DID KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS IN ERN MN/WRN WI...GETTING THEM CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
MONDAY...WE WILL START WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER US...BUT WILL START TO
SEE THE RIDGE BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED STRONG WRLY
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
COLORADO...WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS HERE LOOKING TO GENERATE A
RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SET US
IN A VERY MILD AND DRY WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE ONE GOING TO OUR NW WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALL 31.00 GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE
FRONT...DID BOOST HIGHS ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS A DAY NEXT WEEK TO SEE RECORD HIGHS...THIS WILL BE THE
DAY TO DO IT. THE DAILY RECORDS AT STC/MSP/EAU ARE 72/74/74
RESPECTIVELY AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...THESE VALUES COULD VERY WELL BE CHALLENGED.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE LOOK TOO WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SEE
ANY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DRY.
INSTEAD...RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE GET BEHIND THE
FRONT. PART TWO OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
THU/FRI...WITH A POST FRONTAL DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKING TO BECOME
ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING WAVE. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF WRN WI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. P-TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP WILL FALL SOUTHEAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
IRF CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ABOUT AS THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING...A BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND SHOULD DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
KMSP...
THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE STUCK AT THE AIRPORT FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE CURRRENT SPEED OF THE BACK EDGE WE
ARE THINKING LATE AFTERNOON FOR AN IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS. IT
SHOULD HAPPEN FAST ONCE THE BACK EDGE ARRIVES. WINDS INCREASE
THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR NW WI/TWIN PORTS PRECIP AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THIS EVENING. THE RAIN SHIELD MAINLY OVER NW WI AND THE
TWIN PORTS IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. WILL DECREASE WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AND PORTIONS OF NW WI AS
THE RAIN MOVES EAST. THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HRRR AND DLHWRF INDICATES
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
I HAVE A GLOOMY FORECAST FOR HALLOWEEN WEEKEND...AND I HOPE THE AREA
KIDS ARE PREPARED FOR SOME RAIN ON THEIR TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SPREADING RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RAIN IS
GOING TO STALL OR EASE BACK WEST AGAIN FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND JUST AS THE
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WAVE PULLS RAIN OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL BE MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
DRIVEN...AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THIS WAVE WILL BE JUST IN
TIME TO AFFECT TRICK OR TREATERS IN THE NORTHLAND...SO WHILE IT
MAY RAIN FOR A SHORT TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A WHOLE EVENING RAIN
OUT. THIS WAVE SWEEPS EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY FOR
MOST OF THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO MOST OF
SUNDAY. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE ALSO DIVES OUR WAY FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MAINLY THE CANADIAN BORDER AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND GLOOMY FOR SATURDAY SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A SMIDGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO
KEEP THINGS MILD FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED SLIGHTLY AS WELL.
SUNDAY WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF...ALLOWING THE BRAINERD AND HINCKLEY AREAS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 50S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MORE CLOUDS
AND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BACK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MID WEEK...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AS
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE BORDER
REGION...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. WE STILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE PRECIP OCCURRING THERE AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP POPS
IF THIS DRY TREND CONTINUES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURRING AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
SIXTIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID FIFTIES NORTH.
HIGHS WILL DROP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FORTIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO TEETER ON THE EDGE BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...BUT HAVE OPTED TO FORECAST IFR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
BECAUSE SITES THAT ARE MVFR NOW WILL LIKELY SPEND AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS IFR...AND DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WOULD BE FOR A TEMPO GROUP. WHILE IT IS NOT RAINING AT MOST SITES
NOW A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECT TO CAUSE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY APPEAR ON RADAR...WITH THE FRONT
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL SITES TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT...ESPECIALLY AT BRD AND EVENTUALLY HYR WHERE
CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT INL WHERE MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 40 54 40 / 80 60 0 0
INL 49 37 51 37 / 60 40 20 10
BRD 51 37 58 41 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 49 38 56 42 / 90 50 0 0
ASX 51 41 57 42 / 90 60 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1121 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR NW WI/TWIN PORTS PRECIP AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THIS EVENING. THE RAIN SHIELD MAINLY OVER NW WI AND THE
TWIN PORTS IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. WILL DECREASE WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AND PORTIONS OF NW WI AS
THE RAIN MOVES EAST. THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HRRR AND DLHWRF INDICATES
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
I HAVE A GLOOMY FORECAST FOR HALLOWEEN WEEKEND...AND I HOPE THE AREA
KIDS ARE PREPARED FOR SOME RAIN ON THEIR TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SPREADING RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RAIN IS
GOING TO STALL OR EASE BACK WEST AGAIN FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND JUST AS THE
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WAVE PULLS RAIN OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL BE MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
DRIVEN...AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THIS WAVE WILL BE JUST IN
TIME TO AFFECT TRICK OR TREATERS IN THE NORTHLAND...SO WHILE IT
MAY RAIN FOR A SHORT TIME IT SHOULD NOT BE A WHOLE EVENING RAIN
OUT. THIS WAVE SWEEPS EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY FOR
MOST OF THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO MOST OF
SUNDAY. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE ALSO DIVES OUR WAY FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MAINLY THE CANADIAN BORDER AREAS. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND GLOOMY FOR SATURDAY SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A SMIDGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO
KEEP THINGS MILD FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED SLIGHTLY AS WELL.
SUNDAY WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF...ALLOWING THE BRAINERD AND HINCKLEY AREAS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 50S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MORE CLOUDS
AND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BACK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MID WEEK...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AS
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE BORDER
REGION...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. WE STILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE PRECIP OCCURRING THERE AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP POPS
IF THIS DRY TREND CONTINUES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURRING AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
SIXTIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID FIFTIES NORTH.
HIGHS WILL DROP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FORTIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THE WIND WILL TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERN
TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN THE LOW CLOUDS TOWARD KBRD
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR
OR IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 40 54 40 / 80 60 0 0
INL 49 37 51 37 / 60 40 20 10
BRD 51 37 58 41 / 30 10 0 0
HYR 49 38 56 42 / 90 50 0 0
ASX 51 41 57 42 / 90 60 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
138 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
Band of rain near the I-44/I-55 corridor is forecast to creep
eastward this afternoon as it slowly weakens. Rain should
dissipate from west to northeast through late afternoon. Latest
runs of the HRRR actually develop what looks like a second band of
rain over the next couple of hours over southwest Illinois, and
the RAP is following suit. Have therefore kept high
chance/categorical PoPs in the forecast for the rest of the
afternoon, even though it`s not raining there at this time.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
A damp dreary cloudy cool day is on tap today as the region receives
another shot of much needed rain. Main moisture axis has shifted
into SE MO and sthrn IL overnight. The eastward progression of the
moisture axis should slow some this mrng and as such I have the
highest PoPs from the STL metro area to the S and E. Addtnl precip
should continue to dvlp this mrng across cntrl/NE MO and w cntrl IL
in advance of the upper lvl trof. This precip should be in the form
of intermittent rain and have continued likely/categorical PoPs to
account for this activity. Since the SFC low will remain well north
of the CWA...across sthrn Canada...sthrly flow will continue thru
the day. Even so, the widespread clouds and precip will limit the
diurnal rise to 5 to 10 degrees which puts highs in the mid 50s to
near 60. The upper level trof should pass in tandem with the SFC
cold front from this aftn thru the evng. This will bring an end to
the precip and clear out the clouds from west to east.
2%
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
The passage of the northern TROF axis thru our region around sunset
should shunt the moist atmospheric column to our southeast, and
rapidly scale back what light rain is left with probably just a
few sprinkles early in the evening with dry thereafter.
The southern component to the TROF axis will then track slowly
eastward as it intensifies a bit more--staying to our south during
this time--tracking harmlessly by our region Sunday night. The
westerly flow aloft Sunday and Monday and then southwesterly Monday
thru Wednesday, coupled with southerly surface flow and an absence
of upper level disturbances, will usher in a unseasonably warm
period for early November, with max temps each day at least in the
mid 70s with dry wx. Surface flow looks to be more due south versus
southwest, but if this favors a stronger westerly component, could
see 80F for max temps on some days given this setup.
Upper level disturbances coupled with a surface cold front look to
impact our region by Thursday and continue into Friday, bringing
an end to the dry and warm period with temps scaling back towards
normal by next weekend with another round or two of rain. Thunder
chances look pretty minimal at this time, but will need to see in
what manner the main storm system ejects out of the southwestern
CONUS and there`s plenty of time to watch that.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2015
IFR ceilings will prevail across parts of central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois this afternoon...while low end
MVFR ceilings will likely overspread much of the rest of the area
from I-44 northeast through the STL Metro area and along and
northeast of the I-70 in Illinois. An are of rain and drizzle
stretching from southwest of KSGF up along I-44 through east
central MO into central IL will produce occasional IFR vsbys as it
continues to move slowly east. Think this area of rain will
gradually diminish through the afternoon. Clouds should clear from
west to east late this afternoon/evening. Given moist ground and
light wind, expect fog overnight across central and northeast MO
and west central IL, and it`s possible there will be fog across
much of the area tonight though current thinking is that high
clouds streaming across eastern MO and southern IL may keep fog
confined further west. Any fog that develops should dissipate
after sunrise Sunday morning and VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail afterward.
Specifics for KSTL:
Area of rain just west of the terminal will gradually overspread
Lambert over the next hour. This will produce occasional IFR vsbys
for a few hours this afternoon, and likely ceilings below
2,000ft...possibly below 1,000ft, though I am less certain of
that. The band of rain should gradually dissipate during the late
afternoon. Not sure how long the lower ceilings will prevail, but
guidance is pretty adamant about it breaking up between 00Z and
03z. VFR flight conditions are expected afterwards. There is the
possibility of fog development later tonight, but current thinking
is that high clouds streaming over the area from the southwest
will hinder fog development.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1243 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST. NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FOG REPORTED WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND A
MILE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING WILL BE AN END TO THE RAINFALL.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST. IT LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY
BREAK.
AS THE CLOUDS MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THE AREA OF FOG ALSO APPROACHES.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECT THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SOME TOO. EACH
RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. THE BAND OF FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAIRLY NARROW. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AS LOW AS THEY
WERE EARLIER. THEN THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. THIS IN TURN COULD MAKE IT SO THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS HAS ALREADY
TURNED WINDS A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. WITH WINDS TURNING
WESTERLY ALREADY THE FOG WILL HAVE A LITTLE HARDER TIME FORMING. AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT WITH WEST WINDS THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY WELL. THE WEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
MILD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THIS PERIOD HAS A CLEAR SEPARATION IN WEATHER REGIMES...RANGING FROM
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...THEN TURNING
COLDER AND WET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ISSUES WITH THE START TO NOVEMBER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD 70S EACH
DAY FAVORS A MORE MID-SEPTEMBER FEEL. DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL BE
A KEY DRIVER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLE PUSHING SOME SPOTS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY
OTHER THAN ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS.
CHANGES START TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN GFS/CMC AND SUGGESTS COOLER
AIR WILL SHOW ITS CARDS IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
BUT THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM. NONE-THE-LESS...THE FRONT WILL PULL
THROUGH NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT A
DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
GFS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS RECORD OF TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT. IT GIVES REASON TO FORETELL A
POTENTIAL GOOD RAIN WILL AGAIN WORK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
SIGNS OF COLD ENOUGH AIR BY FRIDAY AM THAT SOME WHITE STUFF IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. HAVEN/T
INCLUDED AT THIS POINT...BUT DID ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WIND
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 23Z
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...GUERRERO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1242 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WERE COMMON. THE LOW STRATUS DECK BEING PULLED
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW COUNTIES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST. UNDER THIS DECK TEMPERATURES WERE STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH
TODAY. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TEMPERATURES WERE REBOUNDING IN THE 50S. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LIGHT RAIN ENDING A BIT SOONER OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THEREFORE...TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS BANK THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND THEIR SOLUTIONS
WRAP AROUND THIS STRATUS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MOST LOCATIONS...STARTING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR FAR WEST. BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA CONTINUES EAST ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK
WARM FRONT.PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z FOR ALL BUT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA 10-12Z...THEN
QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN INCREASING MIXED LAYER
COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP
ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND LOOKS TO AID STRONG WINDS SUSTAINING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.NAM BUFKIT SHOWS 35-40KTS AVAILABLE AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH THE GFS BUFKIT 40-45KTS. OPTED TO
GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST...STARTING
THE WEST AT 11Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF MY CENTRAL AND EAST 15Z.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRIM OFF SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-
DAY AS PRESSURE RISES DECREASE ONCE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
23-00Z ELSEWHERE...OR 6-7PM AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET.
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH WEAK CAA DEPICTED
FOR TODAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
NEXT WAVE IN OUR SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS
THIS MORNINGS FEATURE...AND ALSO TAKES A MORE NORTH TRACK CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BY ACROSS MY FAR NORTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
TYPE WILL ONCE AGAIN BY ALL RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND TEMPS ALOFT WELL ABOVE 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO POSSIBLY MANIFEST ITSELF IN TWO ROUNDS. THE FIRST
POSSIBLE ROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE DIGGING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SECOND POTENTIAL ROUND OF
THE STORM WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
AREA MOST FAVORED FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. WHILE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURE PROFILES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND OF THE STORM ARE CLOSE
TO CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS AND ARE LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT AND WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ANY CHANGES IN TIMING IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MVFR CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 40
MPH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-032>034-041-042-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
311 PM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER BUT
COOL WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE CORE OF HEAVIEST RAIN NOW OVER THE NORTH OREGON COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND MOVING INTO THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. A WAVE
ON THE FRONT THAT WAS OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
ASHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NESDIS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS HAD ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH/HOUR
OVER WESTERN WA. OBSERVED RAINFALL IN OROGRAPHICALY FAVORED AREAS IN
THE WILLAPA HILLS AND NW OREGON COAST RANGE ARE CLOSE TO THAT
ESTIMATE. AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC AND WAHKIAKUM
COUNTIES AS WELL THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WA INTERIOR ZONES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO THE GRAY RIVER NEAR ROSBURG HAS GONE
OVER FLOOD STAGE.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 6 PM...8 PM FOR THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND 11 PM FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH SAGS INTO
THE REGION. A VORT MAX BETWEEN 130 AND 145W OFF THE B.C. COAST IS
FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE AREA SUN MORNING FOR INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST
RANGE WESTWARD THRU SUN EVENING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS INLINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC NW SUN
AND MON AIR MASS WILL COOL. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AS WELL AS
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. AN ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW AT H8 WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 30 KT INTO SUN AS SNOW LEVELS DIP DOWN TO PASS LEVELS. DAYTIME
TEMPS AT THE PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO WARM TO SEE MUCH
ACCUMULATION...THEN AS THE OROGRAHPICS WEAKEN SUN NIGHT MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. COOLER AIR ALOFT SUN INTO SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE UNSTABLE LAYER ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ENOUGH TO WARRANT CARRYING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN...BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO DROP OFF LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES E. SHORTWAVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THOUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MON.
.LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A SHOWERY AIR
MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND COULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WET
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE SLIGHT RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS. /64
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON AS OF 3 PM AND GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
...WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W-SW.
CONDITIONS IN A FAIRLY WELL- MIXED POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. 30 TO 40
KT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING EFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LINGER OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY HAS BROUGHT
LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FRONT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED THROUGH THE
S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COASTAL WATERS AT THIS POINT...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO SW BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ALLOWED THE
EXISTING GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT
EXPECT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KT INTO THIS EVENING.
WILL HANG ONTO THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE SOUTH.
WIND SPEEDS EASE A BIT THIS EVENING...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATER TO
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...WHERE ANOTHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30 KT
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ONCE THE GALE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPIRED.
WINDS BEGIN TO WEAK LATER SUN. THEN HIGH PRES SPREADS INTO THE
WATERS MON. MODELS SUGGEST NORTH WIND 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY END UP REQUIRED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE...AND EXPECT THEM
TO REMAIN AROUND THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WESTERLY SWELL INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. LATEST ENP RUN HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD A BIT WITH 20 TO 21 FT WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING THE WATERS
BETWEEN 15Z SUN AND 00Z MON...BUT DECAYING TO 18 TO 19 FT AS IT
REACHES THE SURF ZONE. IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL FALL JUST
SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUN NIGHT AND MON. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN
COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST SUNDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LA/MS GULF COAST. AS OF
3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN NOW JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK A MAJORITY OF
THE RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRANSLATES
EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN TODAY AND LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE NORTH MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
STEADY RAIN SHOULD END IN A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR...AROUND 1930 AT
JBR...2030 AT MEM...2200 AT MKL AND 2300 AT TUP. CIGS WILL LOWER
JUST BEFORE OR SLIGHTLY AFTER RAIN COMES TO AN END. EXPECTING IFR
OR LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING. VIS IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO AT LEAST IFR TONIGHT AS
WELL. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...5-10KT
TODAY...LESS THAN 5KT OVERNIGHT.
30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
540 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN. BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD IS MOVING STEADILY EAST OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...SO IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS ONCE
THE RAIN ENDS. A RATHER POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BE PULLING OUT OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI. SOME MODELS
BRING PRECIP INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AND THIS WOULD BE
SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ENDING LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE LATE OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WI. A BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT
PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
TAKE PLACE. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MILD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A SUBTLE 850 FRONT WITH TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AIR MASS OVERALL IS DRY BUT WAA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD LIGHT PCPN.
OTHERWISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
DEEPENS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR A DRY AND MILD PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
PROGS THEN DIVERT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
FRAGMENTATION TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW AND PCPN FIELDS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. COOLING H850 TEMPS ALSO INDICATE A MIX
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
MAIN PCPN SHIELD DEPARTING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN. SECONDARY AREA
OF SHRA WL PROBABLY MV ACRS THE N LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF LOW CLDS TO THE WEST...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN. BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD IS MOVING STEADILY EAST OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...SO IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS ONCE
THE RAIN ENDS. A RATHER POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BE PULLING OUT OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI. SOME MODELS
BRING PRECIP INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...AND THIS WOULD BE
SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ENDING LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CLEARING SHOULD ARRIVE LATE OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WI. A BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT
PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
TAKE PLACE. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MILD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
A SUBTLE 850 FRONT WITH TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE AIR MASS OVERALL IS DRY BUT WAA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD LIGHT PCPN.
OTHERWISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND
DEEPENS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR A DRY AND MILD PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
PROGS THEN DIVERT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
FRAGMENTATION TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE ECMWF WAS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW AND PCPN FIELDS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. COOLING H850 TEMPS ALSO INDICATE A MIX
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...HOWEVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE FURTHEST FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
THOUGH THE RAIN WILL LIKELY END OVER CENTRAL WI AND THE
FOX VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR AT MOST
LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN AT RHI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THEN
THINK A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REAPPEAR WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
FROM THE DAKOTAS. IFR CIGS TO LINGER UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC