Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/30/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

955 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015

INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE
DYNAMICAL/FRONTAL FORCING PORTION OF THIS EVENT WITH OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES BECOMING DOMINANT TOWARDS MORNING. THE SHORT TERM HRRR
AND RAP ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENT EMPHASIS OVER THE NEW NAM. SOME
DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION OVER MESA COUNTY MATCHES WELL WITH SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. MESA WINDS ARE BACKING FROM S TO E INDICATING THE
COLD FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY. UNTIL MIDNIGHT THE SW SAN JUANS AND
VALLEYS WILL GET SOME PRECIP. SPOTTER IN SILVERTON REPORTED NO
ACCUMULATION AT 930 PM...THOUGH TELLURIDE REPORTED SOME SNOW AFTER
9PM. BY MIDNIGHT THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEGIN TO DRY OUT. THE NAM
BEGINS TO PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL IN THE NW SAN JUANS WHILE THE
HRRR/RAP EMPHASIZE THE LA SALS NE TO THE FLAT TOPS. THE LATTER IS
FAVORED FOR THE SHORT TERM. SNOWFALL STILL DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS ENHANCED BAND
SINKS SE INTO THE ELKS AND WEST ELKS TOWARDS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS
ON FRIDAY LOOK MEAGER MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015

THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER UT TODAY AS ENERGY
SPLITS INTO AZ OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z FRI...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER
THE CO/UT BORDER SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF AZ. THE
BEST ENERGY/MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER OUR AREA WILL
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT TONIGHT...SO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE KGJX RADAR INDICATED THAT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THESE RETURNS ARE HITTING
THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE RADAR HAS BEEN PICKING UP ON SOME
VIRGA. BUT EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
WITH SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO JUST BEFORE DAWN...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 7500 FT OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY OVER OUR CWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND INTO EASTERN UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY OCCUR AT LOCATIONS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS FAVORED. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
IN THE AREAS WHERE CLEARING OCCURS...WHILE LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS
PREDOMINATE SHOULD HAVE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 40...BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015

MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA ON SATURDAY TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUE WESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WAA...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. STILL COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING NORTH OF HWY 40...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-70
DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND...THEN SPLITS WELL TO OUR WEST.
DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES ON MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY THE GFS AND EC START DIVERGING WITH THE DETAILS.
HOWEVER...THE BIG PICTURE FOR OUR CWA IS SIMILAR WITH EITHER
MODEL...BOTH KEEPING OUR CWA UNDER A S TO SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES
...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

EXPECT SIMILAR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 10 TO 12
F ABOVE NORMAL...THEN A LITTLE LOWER ON TUESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
THOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LARGER DROPS IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MEAN NORTHERN BRANCH OF
UPPER TROUGH POSITION MOVES EASTWARD CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015

SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SNOW EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE THE 7500 FOOT LEVEL. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE FQTLY OBSCURED THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN WITH SLOW
CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS AT TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY 15Z WITH LOCAL VSBYS AT OR BELOW 3 MILES IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE AFT 00Z.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JDC/JOE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1015 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BRINING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE EARLY SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1000 PM EDT...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS PER THE H2O VAPOR...SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NY. AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...COOLER AIR OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. THIS TOO
IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR SO LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. AS FOR THE STRATUS...A BATCH DEVELOPED BELOW THE CI/CS
DECK FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH HAS
NOW DISSIPATED PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY. THE STRATUS FURTHER
UPSTREAM WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE TERRAIN THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST RUN OF THE LAMP/LAV CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WARMER VALUES THAN CURRENT FORECASTS. YET THE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING
LOWER SO WE WILL TWEAK UP 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE FORECAST BUT NOT TOO
THE EXTENT AS SUGGESTED BY THE LAV/LAMP.

SO THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. A WESTERLY BREEZE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
THAN EARLIER.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST FORCING ALOFT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF
OUR REGION. SO ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF ALBANY DURING THE MORNING. DRYING CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS
WILL BE FIRST TO CLEAR...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE ENTIRE REGION
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY FILTER THE SUNSHINE. AGAIN
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE
POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN DESPITE SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER BRISK AND COOL END TO THE WEEKEND AS WE TRANSITION BACK TO
EASTERN STANDARD TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER...TRENDS FAVOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WEEK.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS SURFACE
LOW MOVING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT RATHER TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE EAST AS WE EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY CLIMB FURTHER
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. H850
TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE 10-12C DEGREE RANGE
BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PER THE LATEST FORECAST
PROFILES...THE SCT-BKN STRATUS DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRING ABOUT BORDER VFR/MVFR CIGS INTO KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. KPOU APPEARS TO REMAIN VFR THANKS TO FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...MAGNITUDES HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE WILL KEEP
SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNRISE...WNW WINDS OF 10-18KTS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD BE HIGHER
GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BRINING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE EARLY SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 75 TO 95 PERCENT
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO MINIMUM VALUES OF 40 TO 55 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT
FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE RAINFALL PRODUCED SOME
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT THE FLASHIER RIVERS HAVE CRESTED
AND ARE RECEDING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY. DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT. MORE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

558 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPR LOW WAS INVOF THE MN/IA BORDER AT 21Z. SOLID BAND OF RAIN
PRODUCING AROUND 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IN 2 HRS WAS LIFTING NEWD THRU
THE CWA. ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...SHWRS WERE INCREASING WITH SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN VA.

BASED ON RADAR AND STLT...HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST SLIGHTLY TO
INDICATE RAIN THIS EVE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SCT
TSTMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE PCPN...BUT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY AT LEAST SOME
LGT RAIN AND/DZ IS LIKELY...THEREFORE THE CHANGE.

OTHERWISE...FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVIEST SHWRS
AND TSTMS WITH THE RR QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET LATE TNGT.

WRT WINDS...AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE WRMFNT...GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN RATHER
STRONG. NO WIND RELATED HEADLINES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...OR A STRONG GUST OF 45 TO 50
MPH. GUSTS THOUGH DEPEND ON IF WINDS ALOFT MIX THROUGH THE
INVERSION...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY.

CHC OF 50+ MPH GUSTS IN ANY STRONGER TSTMS LATE TNGT.

FOG IS EXPECTED AS WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTS OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
12Z...LIKELY CLEAR OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 12Z. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER INITIALLY FOR
EASTERN LOCALES...THEN MINIMAL POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS DRIER AIR COUNTERS ANY LINGERING WEAK LIFT ALOFT. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT TRAVERSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

A VERY WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER A WARM START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
ONSET OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.

A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON CU WILL SCATTER
BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WESTERN DEEP TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE DEVELOP INTO A BLOCKY PATTERN.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OPENS AND
WEAKENS..MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS MUCH OF FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IN
PLACE. WARM ADVECTION SETS UP LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. THE GFS DOES DRY UP THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WET. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL
RAINFALL IF ANY DOES OCCUR.

WITH THE NORTHERN STEAM WAVE PASSING SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ONCE
AGAIN WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS SUNDAY DAMPENS AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND EVEN THROUGH WPC BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH OPTED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN AND
HEIGHTS ARE RISING. WEDNESDAY DRY EITHER WAY AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NEARLY DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH OFFSHORE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP THE BLOCKY PATTERN.

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE CONTINUOUS. CONDITIONS COULD OCCASIONALLY
DROP BELOW IFR. SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH IN TIMING AND PLACING FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAF. THERE COULD BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW...CITY TERMINALS TO N/W
PERHAPS 04-07Z AND TO THE EAST...PERHAPS 07Z-10Z WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS SE-S AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT WILL
LOWER SLIGHTLY TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO NEAR 50-60KT AT 2KFT.
IMPACTS DUE TO COMPRESSION/LLWS ARE LIKELY.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND
WIND CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU...VFR. WSW TO W WINDS G20KT.
.FRI...VFR. WSW WINDS G20KT.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.MON...VFR.

.MARINE...
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST...E-SE GALES
SHIFT SE-S THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT AT THIS TIME AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE
TO CRITERIA.

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.

SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL BE QUITE ROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE
SLOWLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT REMAIN RATHER ROUGH FOR
QUITE SOME TIME.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO
NEAR 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY...THEN SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WATERS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. DUE NOT EXPECT FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
AND RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MINOR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A
LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FREEPORT GAUGE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MOST OTHER LOCALES.

THE NIGHT TIME HIGH TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOWER...SO SIMILAR
DEPARTURES WILL BRING LEVELS CLOSE TO BENCHMARKS.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.

ADDITIONALLY...MINOR BEACH EROSION ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SURF
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

744 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS. LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST SINCE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLANTIC CELLS SETS OFF SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A QUIET NIGHT OVERALL. SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG OVER THE INTERIOR SO
CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CLEARS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREAS.

NOW IT IS TIME FOR THIS FORECASTER TO BID FAREWELL AFTER NEARLY 30
YEARS WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THERE HAVE BEEN MANY
ASTOUNDING TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES IN MY CAREER AND THERE HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER SITUATIONS OBSERVED, SOME WITH UNFORTUNATE
CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES. THIS WILL BEGIN THE NEXT PHASE OF MY
LIFE, BUT I WILL ALWAYS FONDLY REMEMBER THE JOB ALONG WITH MY
COLLEAGUES FROM SEVERAL OFFICES THROUGOUT THE YEARS AND WILL ALSO
KEEP ABREAST WITH THE EVER CHANGING SKY WHETHER IT IS IN SOUTH
FLORIDA OR ELSEWHERE.

KOB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...
A NEAR PERFECT ZONAL MID FLOW PATTERN CURRENTY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING OLD SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE TO HAVE SAGGED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA OR EVEN THE FAR NORTHERN KEYS. THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO IT WOULD SEEM TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE THUS LOWERED THE POPS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE HRRR ALSO DOES NOT GET VERY EXCITED OTHER
THAN MOSTLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY EVEN FURTHER SO SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD KEEPING A
LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

IN ADDITION, THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES WILL BE LESSENING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES DUE TO THE WANING
MOON. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY IF REPORTS AT HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING DICTATE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BUT REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING IT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL IN A WEAKENING STATE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SHOWS IT STALLING
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS NEXT WEEK,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TYPICALLY, THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON
ARRIVES BETWEEN MID AND LATE NOVEMBER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGN
OF THAT HAPPENING JUST YET. BUT, GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT
AND AFTER ALL IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY.

MARINE...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES, THE WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEAS OF GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

405 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
COVERING THE CENTRAL CONUS AND QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN IN A ZONE BETWEEN
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS
BEEN STREAMING NORTH AND EAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
PROVIDING SOME OF THE FUEL FOR THE SCT SHOWERS SEEN THROUGHOUT
TODAY. RECENTLY HAVE SEEN A GOOD PUSH EASTWARD OF MUCH DRIER AIR
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PENINSULA...WHICH AS ACTED TO NOW SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS PUSH AS BEEN
THE RESULT OF A STRONGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

THIS ENERGY PASSES BY THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE LOSS OF ITS
MOMENTUM...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOWLY OF THE EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRIER AIR. THIS IS INDEED SHOWN BY MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS WHICH HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING THE DEEP
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORT MYERS AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
ALIGNED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...FINALLY STALLING OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TONIGHT...
THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDERNEATH THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS. WILL KEEP A
30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 1/4 INCH. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WHERE
LATE NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 70S DOWN AROUND FORT MYERS.

DECENT FALL DAY IN STORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING WILL BE ENDING...ALLOWING FOR A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR ALL
ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTIES...THE REMAINING ZONES WILL BE RAIN FREE ALL DAY. A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY END UP A BIT COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE NOW
RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT THINK THESE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...BUT THEN GO BACK TO EASTERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AND
RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW
GENERALLY CONFINED DOWN TOWARD KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. BRIEF VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS FOR THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AREAS/WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH
FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS BACK TO AN EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS
AT TIMES INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHERLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THEN STALLS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AHEAD THIS FRONT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR
NORTH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AGAIN SHIFTING OUR WINDS BACK
TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. AFTER THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITHE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE.

FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES LOOKS TO BE
GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER SOME
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF DESOTO...
HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES AS WELL. THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 82 68 84 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 73 85 70 87 / 40 40 10 0
GIF 69 86 66 85 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 72 81 67 83 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 66 84 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 72 82 70 83 / 10 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

436 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THE EVENING...UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEGUN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL GA WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...THE LACK ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES IN BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION MID-LEVEL
DRYING WOULD SUPPORT ENHANCED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT ROTATION...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE.
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT CELL STRENGTH DUE TO
LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. THE HRRR INDICATES A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE
DECENT LOW-LEVEL MIXING TONIGHT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WILL INDICATE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI/FRI NT...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SATURDAY...ENSURING A FAIR AND DRY DAY WITH NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. GFS AND
ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE IN INDICATING MAIN UPPER FLOW TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS REGION AND CUTS OFF BY SUN...AND MOVES SLOWLY NE TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE AS UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/FLORIDA VICINITY. RESULTANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION
MAINLY SUN/MON. ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND IN
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST...NEAR OGB...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY PREVENT
FOG FORMATION AND FAVOR LOW STRATUS. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
15 TO 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL ROTATE
TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

124 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE EVENING...UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEGUN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL GA WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WILL INDICATE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI/FRI NT...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SATURDAY...ENSURING A FAIR AND DRY DAY WITH NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. GFS AND
ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE IN INDICATING MAIN UPPER FLOW TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS REGION AND CUTS OFF BY SUN...AND MOVES SLOWLY NE TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE AS UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/FLORIDA VICINITY. RESULTANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION
MAINLY SUN/MON. ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES
AND SOME DIURNAL WARMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY LIMIT COVERAGE.

WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO THE CSRA HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL. LESS CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
EFFECTING THE OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY PREVENT FOG
FORMATION AND FAVOR LOW STRATUS. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE
MORE CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1242 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE AREA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...BUT
WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE DRYING DISPLAYED BY THE MODELS WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ALL OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS. IT WILL BE A
WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH FURTHER DRYING FOR FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS WHICH ALL HAD POPS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE HIGHER DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO THE CSRA HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL. LESS CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
EFFECTING THE OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

633 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG WAS OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY IMPROVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING.

RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER COVERAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
WARM FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHEAR IS STRONG. THE
KCAE 88D INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WAS NEAR 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS STORM ROTATION BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BECAUSE
OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE MODELS AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT SURFACED-BASED LI/S STAYING ABOVE ZERO
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT OR TROUGH. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY
THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE NAM
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO -2 TO -5 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MOST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG BUT MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT H85 WINDS 30 TO
40 KNOTS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE WARM BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL INDICATES
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE GFS LAMP HAS GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WE
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR...EXCEPT MVFR/VFR AT OGB. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CIGS MAY AGAIN LOWER TO IFR LEVELS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR NOW.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

415 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY
IFR/LIFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT OGB. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED WHICH MAY FURTHER LOWER
VISIBILITIES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS TRY TO ERODE THE WEDGE
LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

338 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE ARE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.

DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

905 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

Overall forecast looks on track tonight. However, cloud trends
from satellite loop indicates something little different that what
is in the grids. Looks like clouds clearing from the north and the
west, so will be updating forecast just for cloud cover remainder
of the night.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

Broad cyclonic flow continuing this afternoon around the low
departing eastern Ontario, as a surface trough rotates southeast
through the Great Lakes. Cloud shield has covered most of the
forecast area north of I-70, but last few frames of the visible
satellite loop suggest it may not reach much further. RAP humidity
plots do show a bit more progress though, and will keep skies partly
cloudy across the southeast CWA this evening. Over the remainder of
the forecast area, a clearing trend should start from the southwest
this evening, but have lingered the cloud cover over the northeast
CWA much of the night. Little change needed in low temperatures,
which should bottom out a couple degrees either side of 35.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

High pressure expected to build back into the Midwest tonight,
eventually eroding the clouds towards morning with lighter winds.
Ridge axis moves over the region tomorrow, with some variability to
the lighter winds and sunny, highs warmer than today into the upper
50s. Deep upper low over the southern states moving out across the
country as another upper low and developing low pressure system
moves across the southern border of Canada...bringing rain for the
end of the week. Starting in the west Friday evening and spreading
across the region for all day Saturday. Halloween day expected to
be rather wet and gray...but should be coming to an end from west to
east later in the night. At this point, the timing looks to show
some clearing nw of the Illinois River Valley around 6-7pm. Expect
timing to become more finely tuned in the next few forecasts.

Beyond the weekend and into next week, the Midwest becomes largely
dominated by a high pressure ridge just to the east, keeping the
area dry for the most part, with a warming trend. Southwesterly
flow aloft and 850 mb temps climbing to 15-16C by Tuesday, and highs
once again well above seasonal norms, in the upper 60s/lower 70s
through Wed/Thu.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

Cloudy skies will continue at all TAF sites this evening. Believe
SPI and DEC will remain VFR with cigs above 3.5kft. PIA and BMI
will likely remain MVFR at just under 3kft. CMI is currently VFR
but could go back down for a time, so will have VFR with TEMPO
MVFR for just first 2hrs. HiRes models trying to bring some
clearing/scattering of clouds into the area from the north later
tonight. Current satellite trend shows this possible so will
follow close to HRRR solution of skies scattering out just after
midnight. Then as high pressure builds into the region tomorrow,
skies should become clear. Winds will be westerly this evening and
then become light and variable as high pressure builds in. Winds
will become southerly tomorrow with speeds less than 10kts.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

637 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1233 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MAJOR DEEPENING OF AN AUTUMN SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND IS THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. WEATHER
OF NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE MORNING MURKINESS FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
A SCATTERING OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S
FOR SOME THIS EVENING AND AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THURSDAY
WILL THEN SEE OUR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE AUTUMN SO FAR.

MULTIPLE STRONG SHORT WAVES ARE STILL SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING WITHIN A BROAD BUT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE MIDDLE OF NORTH AMERICA. IT IS EVIDENT THAT
PHASING IS ONGOING BETWEEN ONE SUCH WAVE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER DIGGING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW OF 1002 MB NEAR THE QUAD CITIES WILL
DEEPEN AROUND 1MB/HR AS IT LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY.
WITH THE LOW PASSING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF THE RAIN-MODIFIED WARM SECTOR
INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S IF
NOT ABOVE 60 FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS
THAT AIR IS DRAGGED NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND
THUS KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND MURKY WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA AND ITS FORCING WITHIN
NEARLY 1.50 PWATS WILL KEEP POCKETS OF MORNING SHOWERS GOING TOO.

BY AFTERNOON...AN OVER 120 KT JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE PHASING
SYSTEM INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DRIVING ALIGNED AND DEEP
COLD ADVECTION TOWARD THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY THIS EVE...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO INCREASE WITH STEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING AROUND 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE. ALSO THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS DIVING RIGHT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...USUALLY A GOOD SIGN THAT SHOWERS WILL
FORM IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS AND HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH
OF THESE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE RAIN TIMING. RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER COOLS QUICKLY THAT
SHOWER UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ANY DURING EARLY EVE...COULD REACH
COOL ENOUGH LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF GRAUPEL.

THE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES MID-LATE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH THE EVE. FOR THE
COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTS COULD BE
HIGHER THAN THAT JUST BASED ON THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE
A QUICK DROP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL
TIME TOO. HAVE FORECAST HOURLY TRENDS NEAR LOCAL 8KM ARW WITH
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS GIVING THE AIR MORE OF A LOWER-MID 20S FEEL.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING KEEPING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN WI/MN/NORTHEAST IA. HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE
500MB LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH IS EVIDENT IN
GUIDANCE...AND THAT LOW MAGNITUDE IS WITHIN THE BOTTOM TWO
PERCENTILE OF LATE OCTOBER HEIGHTS. SO THE SIGNAL FOR THURSDAY TO
BE A DAY WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RISE IS STRONGER AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S IN SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS GIVEN THE
OVERCAST SKY AND CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT TIMES TO 35
MPH. ALSO COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS. IF
MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM ON CONDITIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT RIGHT
NOW THE ICE NUCLEI AREA IS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FROM WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SATURATED AND REACHED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AT LEAST IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING EXISTS
FOR SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. HAVE BUMPED
UP FORECAST MINS BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN NORTH CENTRAL IL...WHERE
CLEARING WOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO BELOW FREEZING.

THE GFS AND EC ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A SPLIT
ACTIVE FLOW DURING THE START TO THE WEEKEND. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO TAP BACK SOME OF THE MOISTURE SHOVED
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. HAVE COLLABORATED GOING A LITTLE ABOVE RAIN
LIKELIHOOD FOR THE DAYTIME SATURDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND
IMPROVING CONSISTENCY...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES ON DURATION. THE 28.00 GFS WOULD SUGGEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY THE WHOLE AREA IS DRY. SO TRICK-OR-TREATERS
AND THEIR PARENTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST...BUT
RIGHT NOW THERE IS HOPE THAT THE EVENING COULD BE DRY. WINDS LOOK
TO BE SOUTHERLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAST THAT
EVENING.

TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WARM-UP DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
ANOMALY FORECAST BY THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
/NAEFS/ MEMBERS. IT IS NOT THAT COMMON TO SEE SOME OF THE ANOMALY
MAGNITUDE FOR HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOWING UP EIGHT
DAYS IN ADVANCE THAT ARE INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN CERTAINLY SHIFT THIS FAR OUT.
NONETHELESS...COULD BE A 70 DEGREE PLUS DAY OR TWO IN THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

* WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PRODUCE...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VIS
AND A SOME SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRNETLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS. HOWEVER...THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY...OR SHORTLY
AFTER 18 UTC. OTHERWISE...CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ABOVE
1000 FT AGL AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE. A STRONGER
PUSH OF COLD AIR...WITH A STRONG ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME STRONGER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH ARRIVES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING UP IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE
FOR A PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTWARD CANADA. MVFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

SEVERAL PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES ONCE AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SOME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FROM
GALES TO 30 KT WINDS...WITH A FURTHER DIMINISHING TREND TO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF REMAIN AROUND GALES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
SPEEDS PERSISTING JUST UP TO MID MORNING TODAY. SIMILAR TO THE
SOUTH HALF...SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS AN APPROACHING LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND
DEEPENS...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BACK TO
GALES TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION TO GALES WILL
LIKELY BE QUICK STARTING WITH THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTH HALF...AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH HALF. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH HIGHER END GALES TO 45 KT STILL LIKELY FOR A
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1057 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS MORNING AS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN INCREASE IN BOTH DRIZZLE AND
SHOWERS...LIKELY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING.
LOW END IFR HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH THIS
INCREASE IN PRECIP THIS MORNING FEEL THAT CEILINGS WILL STILL
LIKELY FALL TO LIFR FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...WHILE VIS FALLS TO
2-4 MILES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIT LATE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH THE
COVERAGE OF THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND SO HAVE LEFT AS A
VCSH AT THIS TIME. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...WINDS WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT BECOMING LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUE.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH SHOWER TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

908 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR/LIFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

650 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR/LIFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING TO WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR
HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

348 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
VERY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY 30 KT OR HIGHER
LATE.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LIGHT...TO MODERATE AT TIMES...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...DO SEE COVERAGE
DIMINISHING OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FURTHER
LOWER FROM IFR TO LIFR DURING THAT TIME WHILE VIS STAYS DOWN DUE
TO DRIZZLE/FOG. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AS CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. WHILE THE
PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS EVENING...AND WHILE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN
IN PLACE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...FURTHER SHIFTING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY
AND INCREASING. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE WINDS AT THIS
TIME...WITH GUSTS STILL POSSIBLY REACHING 30KT OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...SLGT CHC MORNING SHRA/MVFR...BUT PRIMARILY VFR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE SHRA WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MONDAY...SLGT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

RATZER

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

332 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
VERY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY 30 KT OR HIGHER
LATE.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...SLGT CHC MORNING SHRA/MVFR...BUT PRIMARILY VFR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE SHRA WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MONDAY...SLGT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

RATZER

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

SEVERAL BROKEN LINES/BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A FEW EMBEDDED ENHANCED ECHOES AS
WELL. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AGAIN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH IT WILL THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL RETURN. SEEING SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS LINE OF THINKING FROM
THE HRRR AS WELL. BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS STILL A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEMS EXIT
MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD FROM TX
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN. RAIN WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER DRIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY BUT THEN BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN FURTHER WEST IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT BASES OF MVFR CIGS TO RISE A BIT INTO LOW VFR TERRITORY BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DROP BACK DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS RETURN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLOW OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 10 KTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1135 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

The RAP model indicates a warm nose at around 850 mb should prevent
updrafts from reaching the freezing level today, thus tstms were
removed from the forecast for today/tonight. A combination of some
measurable light showers and patchy drizzle should be expected
today, mainly east of the MS River. The cloud cover forecast will
remain a challenge, as temporary holes keep opening up in the
thinner spots. Some lingering moisture combined with cyclonic flow
aloft should keep a small chance of measurable pcpn in the ern third
of the PAH forecast area past 00Z Thu.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

The 00Z guidance is in reasonable agreement in pivoting a
mid/upper-level trough northeast through the region through 18Z
today, and effectively pushing the tangible rain/TS northeast and
east of our region mostly by 12Z. As this trough reaches Wisconsin
it will carve out a very intense and compact upper low.

Energy rotating around the low may touch off a few showers or
even thunderstorms very late this afternoon or this evening over
the Evansville Tri State and the Pennyrile region of west
Kentucky. Any convection that develops will move rapidly eastward,
so heavy rainfall is not really a concern even with the heavy
rains that have fallen over the last 24-36 hours. Sporadic
lightning will be the primary hazard with any thunderstorms later
today.

Temperature guidance is rather tightly packed for most of the
short term period, so stayed close to the consensus for highs and
lows for the most part through Friday. However, with the surface
high overhead Thursday night, went just a bit below guidance for
lows.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

Average confidence in the long term period due to slight model
differences as two weather systems affect the area.

Precipitation chances make their way into the forecast at the very
beginning of the long term period as system #1 approaches from the
plains. As this system moves slowly across the region it will
generate precipitation over our CWA through Saturday night, with the
highest probability being on Saturday. If this scenario pans out, it
will certainly put a damper on Halloween activities.

No sooner than this system moves off to the east, system #2 lifting
northeast out of the southern plains will produce overrunning
precipitation across our region starting Sunday. Models are
indicating elevated instability over the area Sunday and Sunday
night, so threw in isolated thunder chances for those two periods.
Precipitation chances from this system should continue area wide
through Monday, then linger over the far northeast sections Monday
night before departing to the northeast.

Beyond that our CWA should be dry due to rising heights aloft and
high pressure at the surface.

Temperatures at the very beginning of the period should be slightly
below normal with readings warming to above normal beyond that.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 727 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

Patchy drizzle is expected early this morning, with some vsby
reductions mainly east of the Wabash River. IFR conditions will
yield to MVFR or VFR during the morning or afternoon, depending on
how far east the terminal is. Swrly winds are expected to pick up
from the west southwest today, with gusts into the teens expected in
most places throughout the area in the afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected through the evening as the winds subside to around 5 kts.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DB
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN CHANGING UP THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING LINE GETTING
THROUGH THE ERN SITES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

UPDATE...WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA NOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES
BRINGING THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL FOG...WITH WINDS LIGHT AND
SOILS SATURATED. HAVE THUS BROUGHT PATCHY FOG IN SOONER IN LATEST
UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH MAYBE JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS COMBO OF GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES LATER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF EASTWARD ADVANCING STRATOCU HAS NOW REACHED
OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SABINE. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER GRIDS
WITH THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLEARING.
UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE WET AND
WINDY WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE DEPARTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD
SUNRISE WED. LIGHT SW WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
RETURN WARMING THE TEMPS BACK INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS ACADIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE
IN TEMP IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SW STATES
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG WITH GULF AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE BECOMES CLOSER. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT
THIS TIME, BUT ENOUGH EXISTS TO PRODUCE SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS
AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ON THE STRONGER SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT AND HOW FAST
IT DEPARTS THE REGION VARIES IN THE MODELS, BUT A WET HALLOWEEN
MAY OCCUR.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN INTO LATE WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM SW TO NW THURSDAY,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND BECOME WEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 83 58 79 / 0 0 10 10
LCH 61 83 61 81 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 61 82 64 81 / 0 0 10 20
BPT 62 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

337 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
LOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A
MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDER EXISTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH INTO SE MI IS HELPING DECREASE THE COVERAGE
OF THE STEADY RAINS THAT PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WEALTH OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN DZ OVER MOST OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS OF ACTUAL SHOWERS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE THETA E PLUME LIFTS NE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AROUND 05-09Z. MODELS SHOW LOW CAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES...AND SKINNY CAPE AT THAT LOCATED FROM THE SFC UP TO
AROUND 8KFT. IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK CAPE...SHOWALTER INDEX BRIEFLY
DIP NEGATIVE AND COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LL LAPSE RATES. 850MB/500MB
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -5C/-30C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM SECTION.

.LONG TERM...06Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WITH REGARD TO TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN
THINKING. THIS DYNAMICALLY INTENSE FEATURE WILL RACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RAW GUIDANCE CANNOT CAPTURE
WIND GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO THE FRONT`S COMPACT HORIZONTAL SCALE.
HOWEVER, ARW/NMM PROGS SHOW HINTS AT SUSTAINED 20+KTS WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE FINALLY CONFIRMING PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH SIMULATED WIND GUST SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
WITH FROPA. THIS IS SUPPORTED METEOROLOGICALLY BY INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE NOSE OF THE FRONT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL STRONG POSITIVE OMEGA
VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FORCINGS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB
WITHIN A WIND FIELD THAT DOES TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS JUST
BENEATH THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THUS, WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING FROPA, AND MAY NECESSITATE A
SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING 45 MPH ISN`T
THERE YET DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD. NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD ALSO ALSO BE NOTED THAT STRONG CONVERGENT
FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH WITHIN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS. THE ENTIRE THREAT PERIOD FOR ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE NO
LONGER THAN ABOUT 90 MINUTES.

COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30
KTS TO THE SURFACE THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY. CAA WILL QUICKLY
EASE, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BY AFTERNOON, FORCING WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE
THERMAL MIXING PROCESS AND MIXING EFFICIENCY WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
DECREASE. THUS, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND GUSTS IS EXPETED
THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON. ALSO, A MODEST LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE WILL
ENHANCE EXISTING CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ENGULF THE ENTIRE
CWA AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERS RAIN SHOWERS, PERHAPS
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES COULD SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO THE SURFACE WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS NORTH OF PONTIAC, BUT THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION.

NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE BY THIS TIME, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. STRATUS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MODEST RECOVERY IN THE THERMAL FIELD BY THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
NEAR 50 UNDER DECREASING CLOUDS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SATURDAY. INTERMODEL CONTINUITY HAS INCREASED WITH THIS
FEATURE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS FOR THE TRI-CITIES SATURDAY /CHANCE
ELSEWHERE/ AND LIKELY AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO REAL COLD AIR OF
NOTE WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...AND UPPER HEIGHT RISES
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS KEEPING THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH WEST CONUS/RIDGE EAST
CONUS PATTERN...KEEPING US VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.

.MARINE...

PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST GALES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
HOURS OF DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE WATERS. GUSTS
TO STRONG GALES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. GALES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 10
FEET OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 FEET. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MINIMIZE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEARSHORE ZONES.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 139 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AS A DEEP SURFACE
LOW LIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
OCCURRING AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT MAINLY IFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE TO ABOVE 1000FT. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BRIEF POP TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 07Z. ELEVATED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

FOR DTW... MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL BETTER MIXING LIFTS CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO
REMAIN BELOW 3000FT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND AGAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS OVERNIGHT
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD AROUND 250 DEGREES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.

GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ422.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443-464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

134 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/MANITOBA INTO THE WRN AND SCNTRL PLAINS
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE HAS BUILT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO/WRN
QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/SCNTRL PLAINS WHICH LED TO SOME
UPSLOPE STRATUS/FOG AT KSAW AND KCMX EARLIER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ERN UPR
MI.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING TOWARD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER SRN SASK DROPS INTO SRN MANITOBA
AND NORTH DAKOTA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SE WI BY 12Z
WED. INCREASING SSE 800-700 MB FLOW OF 35-50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0
INCH) AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONV WILL
ALLOW RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WED. IN TURN...AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...SFC LOW OF 995-1000MB OVER SRN WI WED MORNING
WILL DEEPEN NEAR 985 MB OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED. DIMINISHING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC-850 MB LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SPREADS IN FM THE S-SE IN WAKE OF
INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING. AS RAIN
DIMINISHES FROM SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON STRATUS WILL LOWER
AND FOG MAY FORM ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
N UPPER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW SET UP OVER S MN.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL MAINLY STAY AS RAIN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE WARMER TREND OF 850MB TEMPS
CONTINUES...STARTING OUT AROUND 0C OVER THE FAR W AT 00Z THURSDAY
AND BOTTOMING OUT BY 12Z THURSDAY IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE WITH SFC
TEMPS NEAR OR STILL ABOVE FREEZING. COOLER AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -
3 TO -5C SLIDE IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING INWILL BE AS THE
BULK OF PRECIP PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.

ALONG WITH THE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. WITH RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE SFC LOW
THURSDAY...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINUSLA AND E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO THE TERRAIN AND THE
FACT THAT IT/S CLOSER TO THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISESMOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 900MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS...EXPECT NEAR SFC WINDS
OF 30-40KTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH W TO E THURSDAY EVENING.

LOOK FOR THE SFC RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MN AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
MO AND THE TN VALLEY AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12-18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPORARY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING.

JUST HOW FAST WAA PRECIP GETS INTO THE CWA IS IN QUESTION SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER TO BRING BACK PRECIP AT LEAST WITH THE
27/00Z RUN INDICATING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEARING IN THE BROAD TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. EITHER
WAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 0-6C AND SFC TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...EXPECT LIQUID PRECIP INSTEAD OF FROZEN. THE SFC LOW
HANGING OUT OVER W CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER THE N PLAINS MONDAY AS SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF N
AMERICA. EXPECT THE S LOW TO EJECT NE INTO ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

DESPITE THICKENING MID/HI CLDS AHEAD OF A LO PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD
THE GREAT LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR INITIALLY MAINTAINED BY A
STEADY/GUSTY ESE WIND WL HOLD VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
ARND SUNRISE EVEN AFTER SOME -RA ARRIVES FM THE SW. BUT AS THIS ESE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO PRES TAPS MOISTER AIR AND FALLING RA MOISTENS
THE LLVLS...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORE QUICKLY TO MVFR THEN IFR AND
LIFR WITHIN A COUPLE HRS. THESE AUSTERE CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT CMX AND IWD WITH A WSHFT TO THE WNW
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LO OVER LK SUP LATE IN THE AFTN
STILL PRSENTING AN UPSLOPE WIND UNDER LINGERING COMMA HEAD/DEEPER
MSTR. THIS WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION AT SAW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
MID LVL DRY SLOTTING WL ALLOW FOR AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THERE THIS EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRENGTHING LOW
LIFTING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO
JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE
15-25KT RANGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30KT LATE
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE FLOW. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED NIGHT
THRU THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO NEAR 45KT OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE BY THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS INTO SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ251-267.

GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ248>250-265-266.

GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ240>245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-
248-250.

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

657 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND WE
REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST...DRAPED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SO...THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE TAPERING AROUND DARK. DRIZZLE AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
WI.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...SO WINDS WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS MOST THE FA. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...THE MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW STRATUS TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE THE SURFACE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH.
WITH THAT...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE TEMPS.

TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECTING PRECIP TO START BREAKING
OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z-00Z...BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TOMORROW NIGHT /WHICH IS DISCUSSED
FURTHER IN THE LONG TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW MN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN WESTERN WISC FRIDAY EVENING...
ENDING IN WESTERN WISC SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
FROM THE WNW WILL BRING A CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING...MODEST STRENGTH MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE SW
STATES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NEWD AND SIDESWIPING MN/WI. GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WISC FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WNW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WISC. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STARVED FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SMALLER POPS ARE IN ORDER AS FAR SOUTH AS EAST CENTRAL MN AND
MOST OF OUR WISCONSIN AREA...THIS IS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

NEXT LITTLE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WNW LOOKS MUCH TO WEAK TO
RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS. THIS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ON
MONDAY...AND MODELS POINT TO A BROAD AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MN/WI. THUS WILL NEED TO HOLD TO MAX
TEMPS FOR MONDAY THAT ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

HOWEVER...LARGE WESTERN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD...WITH PART OF THE ENERGY SINKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD AREA OF SW UPPER FLOW HEADING
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TUE-WED. AS
THIS OCCURS.. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD... AND A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SUGGEST MORE
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS WHEN WILL CLEARING OVER ERN SODAK
MOVE THROUGH EACH TERMINAL. WITH WAA UNDERWAY ALOFT...WE ARE
DEVELOPING A NICE INVERSION ATOP THE CLOUD COVER...SO IT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE. HRRR/GFS LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN TO VFR
TIMING IN TAFS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST AT WI
TERMINALS...WHERE CURRENT TAFS ARE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC IF
ANYTHING. FOR HEIGHTS...THOUGH SHOWING DIFFERENT HEIGHTS FOR THE
CLOUDS...SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH
THEIR TREND TONIGHT...WHICH IS FAIRLY NEUTRAL. THEREFORE...ONLY
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP ANOTHER 200 OR 300 FEET FROM WHERE THEY ARE
STARTING OUT THESE 00Z TAFS. AS THIS BANK OF CLOUDS MOVES OUT OF
WRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...NEXT BATCH OF MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WILL
ALREADY BE MOVING INTO SW MN.

KMSP...CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND THE CRITICAL 017 LEVEL MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME TO BE BELOW
IT...SO KEPT CIGS BELOW O17 INTO THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THIS STRATUS WILL BE WITH US TO START THE FRIDAY MORNING
PUSH...WITH THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COMING BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. HI-
RES NAM/ARW/NMM ALL SIMILAR WITH BRINGING NEXT BATCH OF RAIN IN
BETWEEN 1Z AND 3Z. IN ADDITION 925-850MB RH SUPPORTS SAID RAIN
COMING WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS...WHICH IS WHAT WAS INTRODUCED
WITH THE 3Z GROUP AT THE END OF THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MORNING MVFR/SHRA. VFR AFTN. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND WEST BECMG SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1018 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD TSRA TO
GRIDS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD MOVING NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME RATHER LARGE BREAKS ALSO
PRESENT. STRATUS IS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE SW AS SOMEWHAT DRIER
LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. SKY GRIDS CAPTURE THIS TREND PRETTY WELL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSES AROUND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WORKING ACROSS MO/NW AR/E OK PER WATER VAPOR. MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN ASSOCIATED FORCING WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN RATHER DRY DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTING EAST COAST. BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH OF FORCING EXPECT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF I-20 LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN COLD AIR IN MID LEVELS AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW TSRA LOOK POSSIBLE AS WELL. LATEST HRRR
DOES SHOW A FEW STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES AND HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC GENERAL TSRA OUTLOOK.
AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF BUT SOME
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WILL KEEP
RISK OF WIDELY SCT SHRA AROUND. HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE SWD EXTENT AS WELL...AND CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO GRASP EXPECTED SETUP
WELL WITH WARMER MAXES IN SW WHERE MORE SUN AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS SHOULD EXIST. NO CHANGES MADE. /AEG/

.AVIATION...
WIDSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS
MIXING AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS CIGS TO LIFT AND STRATUS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE. AT THIS POINT RISK OF SHRA/TSRA APPEARS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES...WILL MONITOR FOR 18Z ISSUANCE. /AEG/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF TODAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS PRESENT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...PRIMARILY
MEANDERING ABOUT NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE ACROSS MY WEST...SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A STILL MOIST AIRMASS...WHERE WET GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN...WILL YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LOCALES MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FIRST THING THIS MORNING.

AGAIN...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING AND FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DELTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
RACES EAST INTO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUIT LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WHILE LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE AS THEY RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT DOES NOT
LOOK TO HANG AROUND VERY LONG. DIGGING MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE SW
US/NW MEX WILL PUT THE AREA BACK INTO SW FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT FORMS OVER W TX.
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL BREAK OUT RATHER QUICKLY OVER TX DUE TO
INCREASED WIND FIELD AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.

WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER/STRONGER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE NOW. SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE ARKLAMISS SATURDAY MORNING. MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WIND THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE AREA THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH 35-45
KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH. WITH THESE SHEAR VALUES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR A FEW BRIEF...WEAK TORNADOES IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.

MORE OF A HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD CORE MOVES ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. VERTICAL TOTALS
IN THE UPPER 20S...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES NEAR 500 AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THIS HAIL THREAT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS IT PUSHES EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SW FLOW RECOMENCES TUESDAY AS YET
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DIGS OUT WEST. /26/

AVIATION...IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FOR A
SHORT TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURRBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
RAC EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE...AT A MINIMUM...MVFR CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS. THESE WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 77 60 76 53 / 10 17 6 6
MERIDIAN 74 59 75 50 / 14 16 7 7
VICKSBURG 78 58 75 52 / 10 15 6 6
HATTIESBURG 79 62 79 57 / 10 10 12 5
NATCHEZ 78 60 76 56 / 10 12 6 6
GREENVILLE 75 55 74 50 / 17 15 6 6
GREENWOOD 74 55 74 49 / 17 16 6 6

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

356 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

As of this morning, the majority of precipitation has shifted east
of the forecast area, with low clouds remaining in place. On the
edge of the low clouds across SE KS, NE OK, and SW MO, dense fog has
developed. Do not expect widespread dense fog to develop over the
CWA, but certainly patchy fog can be expected through mid-morning.
As drier and cooler air moves into the region, clouds will clear
from west to east during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm
into the middle 50s to lower 60s by mid-afternoon. The pressure
gradient will strengthen today as low pressure deepens as it moves
into the western Great Lakes region, resulting in breezy northwest
winds during the daylight hours before the boundary layer decouples
this evening. As wind speeds relax and skies become clear tonight,
the stage will be set for good radiational cooling. Low temperatures
are expected to fall into the lower to middle 30s in most areas
outside of the KC Metro area. Patchy frost may be possible in many
areas, especially low-lying areas where cold-air drainage will be
the most prominent. Widespread frost may be mitigated due to the
drier air moving into the area and northwest winds remaining around
5-10 mph. Still, in sheltered, low-lying areas, frost will be a good
possibility, and any sensitive vegetation should be accounted for.

A reinforcing shot of cool air will keep temperatures below normal
on Thursday with highs in the 50s. High pressure will move into the
CWA Thursday night, with another night of similar temperatures in
the lower to middle 30s and a subsequent shot of frost. High
pressure will move off to the east on Friday in advance of the next
upper system, with southerly winds and moisture returning. Models
are in decent agreement with widespread showers returning to the
area beginning Friday afternoon and ending late Saturday. The best
chance for rainfall will come Friday night into Saturday morning,
where one-half inch of precipitation on average is expected. Based
on the anticipated evolution of the upper troughs, little cold air
advection is expected upon the systems departure. Therefore
temperatures will remain seasonably warm Sunday through mid-week. In
fact, highs in the lower 70s are possible each day in some areas
early next week. Dry weather is expected Sunday into Tuesday before
precipitation chances increase as the next large upper trough moves
into the central CONUS on Wednesday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Patchy fog has developed across the area this evening behind the
departing system and a few of the terminals have been bouncing
between LIFR and IFR conditions. The HRRR hi-res model still shows
LIFR and IFR vsby overnight, beginning to dissipate by 11-13Z. NW
winds will increase late tomorrow morning with sustained winds of
15-20 kts...gusting 20-25 kts...by early afternoon. Winds will
decrease near sunset as diurnal mixing ends.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1223 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Light Showers and drizzle are expected through the remainder of the
evening and into tonight. This is thanks to a broad surface low
which was associated with Hurricane Patricia drifting northward up
the Mississippi River Valley from the Gulf Coast today. This low
will continue to drift northward into eastern Missouri today
continuing to stream moisture into the area. Also, a upper level
shortwave trough is moving across central Nebraska and Oklahoma
today provides showers across central Kansas. These showers are
expected to weaken as we move into the evening however, light
showers can not be ruled out. The upper level shortwave trough is
expect to move through the area tonight bringing light shower and
drizzle chances from west to east. Light will also be an issue
tonight. Otherwise temperatures under cloud skies should remain
relatively warm with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow an
upper level trough will dig through the Upper Midwest with a 140kt
upper level jet traversing the area. This may help provide enough
forcing for some showers across the northern CWA. It, coupled with
modest northwest winds at the surface will keep highs on the cool
side in the mid 50s and low 60s. Tomorrow night, skies will clear
out with light westerly winds. This will allow temperatures to drop
into the mid to upper 30s. There may be some front issue across the
northern CWA however, winds may remain elevated enough to preclude
frost concerns. Surface high pressure will move into the area on
Thursday keeping conditions sunny and cool with highs in the 50s.

The extended period will begin wet on Friday as models are in good
agreement that an upper level trough will dig into the southwestern
CONUS. Gulf moisture will stream northward out ahead of this system
and overspread the area during the day Friday and continue into
Friday night. Model solution begin to diverge on Saturday as to the
evolution of an upper level low in the base of the southwestern
CONUS trough. The GFS takes the upper low and from the southwest
into the Red River Valley in Saturday and then shifts it northeast
into Missouri on Sunday keeping rain chances in the forecast through
the weekend. The EC slows down and weakens the upper level trough as
it moves from the southwestern CONUS. This solution would bring rain
chances to the area Friday and Saturday. However, by Sunday the EC
takes the upper trough, as an open wave, through the Red River
Valley and continues to push it east keeping precipitation of the
area on Sunday. Both the EC and GFS do agree that upper ridging
should build back into the area provide dry and mild conditions by
early next week with highs possibly approaching 70.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1235 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

ALOFT: AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPR-LVL PATTERN WAS EVOLVING AND
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THE LONGWAVE TROF WAS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...
WITH A VERY COLD/COMPACT UPR LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THE TROF WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK WHILE
THE LOW WILL CONT SE...MAKING A CYCLONIC LOOP INTO THE MIDWEST
TODAY AND TURNING NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS
POTENT AND WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 525 DM. NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL HERE
THRU TONIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL.

SURFACE: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT
WAS JUST S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE EVOLUTION ALOFT WILL SEND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TO
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
IN THIS EVE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES QUICKLY DROPS S AND INTO WRN NEB
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

A FEW SHWRS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF A LINE FROM ORD-YORK. SOME
MESONET SITES IN HOWARD AND POLK COUNTIES DID MEASURE .01-.02".
THESE SHWRS CLEARED THE FCST AREA BY 330 AM.

TODAY: M/SUNNY AND WINDY. TEMPS REALLY WON`T BE THAT MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH THE WIND. WE
PROBABLY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY AS NAM/GFS/RAP CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME HIGH RH IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER ADVECTING
SE. YOU CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF IT UPSTREAM OVER ERN WY. THIS WILL IN
A SWATH OF STRATOCU FORMING AROUND 5K FT BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO AROUND 7K FT AS THE BL EXPANDS...IN ADDITION
TO SOME ALTOCU MOVING IN.

631 AM UPDATE: 06Z GFS/NAM AND THE LATEST RAP CONT TO INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL RH MOVING IN 7-9K FT AND IT`S ON SATELLITE OVER THE
PANHANDLE/SW SD/ERN WY HEADING THIS WAY. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED
TO P/CLOUDY FOR TODAY AND SOME AREAS WILL TURN M/CLOUDY FOR A
TIME. THIS WILL PROBABLY PUT A CAP ON WINDS AND INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY IN MAX WIND GUSTS.

WIND: WE MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WINDS. MIXING WILL BE VERY DEEP
(AROUND 8K FT). USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH
WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

WE COULD BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS N OF HWY 6.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA HAVE THE TOP OF THE BL MIXING INTO 50-55
KTS AT 7-8K FT. THE ALGORITHM PEAK GUST POTENTIAL IS CONCERNING.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE HRRR MAX GUSTS ARE 35-40 KTS.

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH
LARGELY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST...EXCEPT
NUDGING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY S OF HWY 6 TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE SNAG IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER.

TONIGHT: FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. VERY COLD. TONIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EVEN WITH THE WIND REMAINING
5-15 MPH. BELIEVE THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL BE AT OR BELOW FRZG BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THIS. USED MAV
MOS WHICH IS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME
STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.

THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET. PLEASE SEE THE STORY ON THE TOP OF OUR
WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.

NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HEADING INTO NOVEMBER AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY...BUT AFTER THAT FEATURE PASSES TO
THE EAST...THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SOLID ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
ENSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. I STUCK IN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST STARTS TO GET GOING AND
BEGINS TO MOISTEN AIR TOWARD THE SURFACE. PROBABLY NOT IN TIME FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE ME FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE WITH SPRINKLES IN THERE. I THOUGH ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL
HERE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ME TO STICK THIS IN JUST YET...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND EXPECTED. SREF ENSEMBLES DO NOT INDICATE MUCH FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD EITHER...SO I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT
LEAVING THIS OUT.

MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND I
WAS TEMPTED TO START PUTTING IN CATEGORICAL CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE JUST NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN AS I WOULD
HAVE ANTICIPATED...AND I HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY A
STRATIFORM RAIN SITUATION AND SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE MOIST IN A DEEP
LAYER WITH A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THEREFORE...I WENT
WITH RAIN RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
MUCAPES INDICATE THAT THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHUT OFF AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT. MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. INITIALLY...I WAS CONCERNED THAT WIND MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION...I DECIDED TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT THEM TO THE WEST A LITTLE
STRONGER/SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO DO SO. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AS THE CANADIAN APPEARS SLOWEST...
BUT WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN THIS CASE.

WE SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMING UP AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT WEST. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF
THE REACH OF ANY IMPULSES THAT ARE KICKED UP BY THIS DEEPENING
TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY CONCERN LYING WITH WINDS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BECOMING A TOUCH MORE WESTERLY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ075>077-
082>087.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

631 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

...NW WINDS GUST 40-50 MPH OVER S-CNTRL NEB TODAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVING TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

A FEW SHWRS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF A LINE FROM ORD-YORK. SOME
MESONET SITES IN HOWARD AND POLK COUNTIES DID MEASURE .01-.02".
THESE SHWRS CLEARED THE FCST AREA BY 330 AM.

WIND: WE MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WINDS. MIXING WILL BE VERY DEEP
(AROUND 8K FT). USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH
WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

WE COULD BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS N OF HWY 6.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA HAVE THE TOP OF THE BL MIXING INTO 50-55
KTS AT 7-8K FT. THE ALGORITHM PEAK GUST POTENTIAL IS CONCERNING.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE HRRR MAX GUSTS ARE 35-40 KTS.

TONIGHT: FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME
STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.

THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET. PLEASE SEE THE STORY ON THE TOP OF OUR
WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.

NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HEADING INTO NOVEMBER AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

SIGNIFICANT ISSUES: NW WIND GUST UP TO 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY: STILL SOME PATCHES STRATOCU 2000-2500 FT BUT MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MOVE E SHORTLY. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF AN
MVFR CIG YET THRU 15Z...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WON`T LAST
LONG IF IT OCCURS. THEN VFR CIGS INVADE 7-9K FT. NW WINDS INCREASE
AND GUST 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR SKC AND WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ075>077-
082>087.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

451 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

A FEW SHWRS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF A LINE FROM ORD-YORK. SOME
MESONET SITES IN HOWARD AND POLK COUNTIES DID MEASURE .01-.02".
THESE SHWRS CLEARED THE FCST AREA BY 330 AM.

WIND: WE MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WINDS. MIXING WILL BE VERY DEEP
(AROUND 8K FT). USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH
WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

WE COULD BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS N OF HWY 6.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA HAVE THE TOP OF THE BL MIXING INTO 50-55
KTS AT 7-8K FT. THE ALGORITHM PEAK GUST POTENTIAL IS CONCERNING.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE HRRR MAX GUSTS ARE 35-40 KTS.

TONIGHT: FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME
STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.

THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET. PLEASE SEE THE STORY ON THE TOP OF OUR
WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.

NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HEADING INTO NOVEMBER AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BY THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY...BUT AFTER THAT FEATURE PASSES TO THE
EAST...THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SOLID ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ENSUE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES. I STUCK IN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST STARTS TO GET GOING AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN AIR
TOWARD THE SURFACE. PROBABLY NOT IN TIME FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BY 12Z
FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE ME FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH SPRINKLES
IN THERE. I THOUGH ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL HERE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ME TO
STICK THIS IN JUST YET...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT EAST
COMPONENT WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND EXPECTED. SREF
ENSEMBLES DO NOT INDICATE MUCH FOG POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
EITHER...SO I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT LEAVING THIS OUT.

MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND I WAS
TEMPTED TO START PUTTING IN CATEGORICAL CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE JUST NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN AS I WOULD HAVE
ANTICIPATED...AND I HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY A
STRATIFORM RAIN SITUATION AND SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE MOIST IN A DEEP
LAYER WITH A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THEREFORE...I WENT
WITH RAIN RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
MUCAPES INDICATE THAT THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHUT OFF AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. INITIALLY...I WAS CONCERNED THAT WIND MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION...I DECIDED TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT THEM TO THE WEST A LITTLE
STRONGER/SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO DO SO. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AS THE CANADIAN APPEARS SLOWEST...BUT WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN THIS CASE.

WE SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMING UP AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT WEST. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF THE
REACH OF ANY IMPULSES THAT ARE KICKED UP BY THIS DEEPENING
TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE CIGS BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF VFR SHWR OR SOME SPRINKLES. NW WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO VARIABILITY
IN CIGS.

WED: WINDY. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z LEAVING VFR. A
FEW ALTOCU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 7K FT. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED THRU 06Z: VFR SKC. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ075>077-
082>087.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

413 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

...NW WINDS GUST 40-50 MPH OVER S-CNTRL NEB TODAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVING TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

A FEW SHWRS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF A LINE FROM ORD-YORK. SOME
MESONET SITES IN HOWARD AND POLK COUNTIES DID MEASURE .01-.02".
THESE SHWRS CLEARED THE FCST AREA BY 330 AM.

WIND: WE MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WINDS. MIXING WILL BE VERY DEEP
(AROUND 8K FT). USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH
WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

WE COULD BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS N OF HWY 6.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA HAVE THE TOP OF THE BL MIXING INTO 50-55
KTS AT 7-8K FT. THE ALGORITHM PEAK GUST POTENTIAL IS CONCERNING.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE HRRR MAX GUSTS ARE 35-40 KTS.

TONIGHT: FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME
STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.

THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET. PLEASE SEE THE STORY ON THE TOP OF OUR
WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

WED: WINDY. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z LEAVING VFR. A
FEW ALTOCU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 7K FT. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED THRU 06Z: VFR SKC. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ075>077-
082>087.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING....THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WITH LIGHT QPF HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CURRENT KLNX 88D SCAN REVEALS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO NORTH ACROSS
DEUEL...WESTERN GARDEN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LOOSELY HAS THE SITUATION RESOLVED...SO WILL GO WITH A
GENERAL BLEND OF THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RESULT IS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS EVENING...WILL NEED TO
WATCH A COMPACT PV ANOMALY THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PANHANDLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND THE PV MAX WOULD ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN AFTER SUN UP WEDNESDAY WHEN A 100KT+ H5 JET DIVES
SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COMBINES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SFC
PRESSURE FALLS...AND SOLID MIXING AS LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE. THERE/S POTENTIAL OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND IF WE MIX TO THE FULL POTENTIAL /ABOVE
H7/...50MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ATTM WE FEEL THE 45 MPH GUSTS SHOULD
BE THE UPPER LIMIT.

THE WIND/MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
POST FRONTAL CAA...BUT STILL...LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S /NORTHWEST/...30S ELSEWHERE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE PARTIALLY DECOUPLING NEAR DAWN...IF THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE A
PRODUCT OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL
CAA WILL PROMOTE HIGHS OF ONLY THE UPPER 40S FOR THE NORTH...NEAR 60
OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...LOWER 20S CENTRAL SANDHILLS...TO
THE UPPER 20S FAR NERN ZONES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIRMASS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND LIMITED MIXING...HIGHS NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST FROM NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR TO NEAR 50 IN THE NORTHEAST.

A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A MOISTURE RETURN FROM TEXAS INTO KANSAS. A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 30 TO 50 POPS
FRIDAY AFTN EAST OF AINSWORTH THROUGH MULLEN AND OGALLALA.
PREFERRED THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE 12Z GFS RUN OVER THE NAM.
CHC POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER TROUGH
EXITS.

DRY WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 1500 TO
3000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER TO 10000 FT AGL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING OCCURRING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS AROUND
3500 FT AGL WILL CLIMB TO 10000 FT AGL DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED WEDS EVE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

816 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

A BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A A S/W AND
ITS ATTENDANT SFC FRONT HAVE ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 1
CORRIDOR. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHERE SKIES ARE BROKEN-
OVERCAST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CONVERSELY
WHERE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S WERE COMMON...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SE.

IN SPITE OF THE LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED
CONVERGENCE...LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS STILL
DEPICTS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. CAM AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS
VERIFYING TOO WET AT 18Z...AND THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTING ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TRAVERSING CENTRAL
NC WEST-TO EAST THIS EVENING. BASED ON BEST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION INTO
OUR SW COUNTIES...PLAN TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES...AND EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS. PLAN TO MAINTAIN
MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH.

S/W AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE SFC
FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST-EAST COMMENCING IN THE WEST
AROUND 9 PM...AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
VARY FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE WHERE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS UP COMPARED TO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MID-UPPER 60S. WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN OUR
VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EXPECTED WITH MID
30S PROBABLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

SFC AND S/W RIDGE DRIFT EWD SATURDAY...INITIATING A RETURN FLOW
REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL NC. INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
COUPLED WITH AN APPROACH OF A S/W WILL INCREASE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE REGION BY SUNSET. ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT/OPAQUENESS OF HIGH
CLOUDS. CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS WILL BE STARTING NEAR 40-LOWER
40S...AN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUDS
COULD DETER TEMP RECOVERY. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 5-
6 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OF LOW-MID 60S WEST TO
MID-UPPER 60S EAST. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MILDER AIR
MASS ENVELOPING THE REGION. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...

RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL FURTHER PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG WITH ITS SFC
WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES
ACROSS. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST GFS PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD
VALID DURING SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE WAVE...ALONG WITH THE NOSE
OF A 50+ KT LLJ COUPLED WITH 50+ KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...ALL
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THAT TIME. THERE`S
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE PATTERN TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY
WORTH KEEPING TABS ON AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THEN ON MONDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...THEN
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND S/W RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. FAIR WEATHER THEN EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIF
AIRMASS CHANGES.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT
WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
STRETCHING FROM NEAR ROCKY MOUNT TO SMITHFIELD TO FAYETTEVILLE THAT
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN A FEW OF THE
HEAVIER POCKETS...VSBYS ARE FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT
QUICKLY RECOVER ONCE THE RAIN PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST-SW SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WSS/26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD/WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

349 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COASTAL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MORE-HUMID AIR WILL
RETREAT INLAND AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA TODAY...BENEATH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN GET SWEPT OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THU WILL USHER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EASTERN US FOR FRI AND SAT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...AN INITIAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING RAIN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LULL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...BARELY VISIBLE ON H2O VAPOR
IMAGERY BUT WELL-DEFINED ON RAP AND GFS...WILL BE LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...ONGOING ~100 POPS LOOK GOOD.
SIMILARLY... THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT BUMP UPWARDS IN THE TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SUPPORTING THE
VERY GRADUAL RISE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES TO PECK AWAY AT THE COOL AIRMASS.

CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING WITH A PARENT HIGH (1035MB)
SLOWLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE EAST-SELY FLOW
JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE WAS STRENGTHENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W OR SHEAR AXIS.
THIS OVERRUNNING SET-UP WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NEWD AND EXITS OUR
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY
AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.

A COASTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST
AT 19Z. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGEST TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN SLOWLY
RISING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS EXCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT SHOULD BE AT
OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE DUE TO RAIN
AND/OR LIGHT FOG...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO WELL MIXED TO CAUSE AREAS
OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST AND PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FINAL WAVE WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS AREA THE AREA. WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT LIKELY AIDING THE 70-78
DEGREE HIGHS THAT RESULT FROM DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 900-850MB. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SHOW A SHALLOW
BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
FRIDAY...THOUGH LIKELY TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OTHER NWP.

MODEST COLD ADVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION... WILL DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWS 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT....WITH THICKNESSES
ABOUT 10M BELOW NORMAL AND THE RESULTING TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

THE FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CUT OFF BY SUNDAY...BUT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AND
SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY MONDAY. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT MORE LIKELY MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF AND GFS ACTUALLY SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TEMPORALLY AS
THE WAVE CROSSES NC MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE AMPLITUDE AND THE
RESULTING PRECIP PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE VARY ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ONLY AVERAGE AT BEST. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING COOL AND SATURATED COLD AIR DAMMING AIR
MASS. A WARMER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...BETWEEN 30-40 KTS AT AROUND 1500 FT...WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

BOTH THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COASTAL FRONT --MID TO LATE MORNING AT FAY
AND RWI...AND MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT-- AND
CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE A BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND TO
DEVELOP...AND A SCATTERING OF THE LOW CEILINGS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER...AT LEAST ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING SHOWERS THAT WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT. AN
ISOLATED STORM MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS BETWEEN 14Z-20Z...WITH A
BAND OR TWO OF STORMS --SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE-- THEN PROBABLE BETWEEN
21Z-03Z...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT ACCOMPANYING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE COASTAL FRONT WILL GET SWEPT TO THE COAST AND CONSEQUENTLY END
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...BUT A RESIDUALLY
MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THU...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. VFR
CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL UNTIL A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS TO
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

234 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE DUE TO RAIN
AND/OR LIGHT FOG...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO WELL MIXED TO CAUSE AREAS
OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPEPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL SEND A SERIES OF S/W INTO
CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NC. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARM
HUMID AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION.

THE STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE
35-45KT RANGE. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW (RESIDUAL EFFECT OF THE CAD AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT)
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES NEAR THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR
ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER... THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT
BE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OF SUFFICIENT DEPTH AS LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
SUCH THAT THE 12Z GFS MUCAPE VALUES REACH 1200-1400 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
MLCAPE 400-600J/KG. IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES AND IF PEEKS OF SUN
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON NEAR OR ADJACENT TO OUR
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE.

PLAN TO HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY CATEGORIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS PRECIP CHARACTER BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (SOONER THE
BETTER). HAVE MAX TEMPS VARYING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NW (WHERE
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS WILL BE LATE TO ERODE) TO THE MID 70S SE. IF
ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCUR (SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN) THEN
MAX TEMPS MAY END UP 3-4 DEGREES WARMER.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE THREAT. SHOULD SEE POPS DECREASE IN
THE WEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG DRYING AND SINKING AIR EXPECTED ABOVE
850 MB... ALTHOUGH THE TRULY COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THU NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND
COMPONENT... SO EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS FROM 71-78. ISOLATED
SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTED VERY LOW COVERAGE AND LOW QPF RESULTING
FROM THE FALLING PW... WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST... ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT 850-800 MB ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT TO SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS FROM 43 NW
TO 51 SE AS THICKNESSES DROP BELOW NORMAL.

FRI-TUE: DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRI/SAT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY FRI... PUSHING TO THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION BY SAT AND OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. A BAGGY AND
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OFF THE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS... A RESULT OF A
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT SW AND
NRN MEXICO FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER FL AND THE SE STATES.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER NC STARTING LATE SAT AS THE SW TROUGH
HEADS EASTWARD... INCREASING THE SWRLY STEERING FLOW AND PASSAGE
OF PERTURBATIONS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND OVER 12 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN
LIFTING THIS MID LEVEL LOW TO THE E THEN NE THROUGH THE MID MISS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE OP ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENS MEAN THAN THE GFS... AND THE GEFS MEAN
ACTUALLY MORE RESEMBLES THE OP ECMWF THAN THE GFS. WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF...WILL GO WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUN BUT HOLD OFF ON
CHANCE POPS UNTIL SUN NIGHT... LIKELY LASTING INTO MON/TUE (WITH A
DROPOFF IN CONFIDENCE) WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A STEADY STREAM OF
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS... AND SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THICKNESSES SHOULD
START OFF BELOW NORMAL SAT AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE SUN...
HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL MON/TUE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. -GIH

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

942 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

THE CLEAR HOLE HAS FILLED BACK IN AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR AND SOMETHING TO
POSSIBLY ADJUST ON THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
CLEARING AREA AROUND THE JAMESTOWN REGION...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS CLEARING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE HALTED WITH SUNSET. OBSERVING
THIS TREND HAS LED TO DELAYING THE CLEARING IN THE FORECAST A
COUPLE HOURS. THE CURRENT MIN TEMP ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR SOME
CLOUDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

ISSUE TONIGHT IS CLOUD TRENDS. FOR THE MOST FOLLOWED THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND OF THE HRRR MODEL ITS 925 MB RH FIELD. IT SHOWS THE
MAIN CLEARING WAITING TIL 06Z OR LATER TO REACH THE RRV. THAT SAID
THERE IS A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS NOW APPEARING QUITE QUICKLY
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO COOPERSTOWN. THIS CLOUD AREA MAY CLEAR OUT
MORE AND THIS MAY ACCELERATE CLEARING A LOT FASTER THAN CURRENT
GRIDS HAVE. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN TEMPS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
FOR LOWS AS WELL. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SOUTH OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA. KEPT THE AREA DRY WITH MODELS
INDICATING PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MILD ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WORK IN
BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES/SFC LOWS WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTL BORDER
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE FAST MOVING AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...BEST CHANCE
MIDDAY SATURDAY NE ND AND AFTN IN NW MN. THEN ANOTHER CHC SUNDAY.
BOTH AREA PRETTY LIGHT EVENTS. QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH HIGHS LOWER
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH WHERE SOME SUN IS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES SHOW PCPN OVER THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD...WITH PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN...BUT THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN
SCENARIO ATTM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL HEADING INTO NOVEMBER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT TIMING IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS...DID
DELAY THE CLEARING A FEW HOURS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

909 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY...
ALLOWING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN MODERATE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. BASED ON RECENT RAP RH PLOTS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHEAST-PROGRESSING
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WAS REFINED. SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO NECESSARY
TO TEMPERATURES...AS THE COOLEST SPOTS IN THE CWA TONIGHT MAY BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS PROJECTED...AND WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AS THEY DROP INTO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
DEEP MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO TRANSLATE NE INTO
SE CANADA THIS EVENING AS LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MS VLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED S/W IN THE NW FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MS VLY TO DROP SE THRU OHIO OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE
NORTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
10 KTS THIS EVENING WITH SPEED MAX ROTATING NE AND LOWER PORTION
OF AIRMASS BECOMES LESS MIXED WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S SOUTH TO NEAR 40 NORTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE SW. AS THE LOWER CLOUDS DIMINISH...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 7 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL MILDER. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF NRN S/W IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SATURDAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH PCPN IN WAA. WILL FOLLOW A SOLN
CLOSER TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC/CHC POP OF A
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SAT AFTN. IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS SAT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW
TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING ILN/S FA AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE TO LKLY SAT EVENING FROM NW TO SE.
LOWS WILL BE MILD FROM THE UPPER 40S NW THE LOWER 50S SE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER PUSHING OUT SHOWERS. ACCORDING TO THE USUALLY RELIABLE
ECMWF...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD....WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. SUBSIDENCE
IN THE DRY AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE SURFACE HIGH COMBINED WITH
CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS RISING GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WARM ADVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL TEAM WITH
RATHER WEAK AUTUMN INSOLATION TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN UP TO AROUND 70 FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
UPPER 60S AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS COMPARES TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTON
AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES.

THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING...AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

150 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY RAIN
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR NOW. GETTING A DRY PUNCH INTO THE TUG FORK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA. WILL
ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF
COAST...WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION AT 18Z...WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AREA INTO OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SEE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS START TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. WITH THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING TO SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS...ALONG WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS WITH PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...STILL LOOKING LIKE INVERSION TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME OF
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN...HOWEVER...DO HAVE SOME
GUSTS OVERNIGHT APPROACHING OR HITTING THE 40 KT GUST MARK ALONG
THE HIGHER PEAKS. BUT OVERALL...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A
WIND HEADLINE...BUT WILL HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR...AND WILL
ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG PEAKS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SWEEPING AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL BE GREATER THREAT AREA.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SYSTEM PULLING UP INTO ERN CANADA THU WHIPS A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA WED NT AND FIRST THING THU MORNING...THE
SECOND FRONT MIXING THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK OVER ANY ERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IT HAS NOT REACHED BY DAWN. STRONG COLD AS
WELL AS DRY ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE WIND FIELDS BECOMING MORE ALIGNED...THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
WELL MIXED...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY AS
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER COOLS.

THERE MAY STILL BE THUNDER WED EVENING...BUT LOSS OF HEATING WILL
QUICKLY ERADICATE WHAT LITTLE CAPE THERE IS ON WED. WITH THAT AND
THE INITIAL FRONT WASHING OUT...THE THUNDER WILL QUICKLY COME TO
AN END...AND THE SHOWERS WILL WANE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE ONE
LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT...AS IT
WHIPS THROUGH LATE WED NT INTO THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE ANY MORNING SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE E THU MORNING...AND
DRIER AIR TAKING OVER WILL PROVIDE CLEARING DESPITE THE COOLING
ATOP THE MIXING LAYER. THE MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS...UP
TO 30 KTS...THU.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS THU NT AND FRI...ALONG
WITH A DEARTH OF CLOUD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON DIURNAL IN THE COLD ADVECTION...WITH A
SLOW FALL WED NT BUT A MINIMAL RISE ON THU. BLENDED IN THE MET FOR
LOWER VALUES IN THE E THU NT. HIGHS FRI LOOKED GOOD WITH LOWLAND
VALUES JUST BELOW 60F ON H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 0C.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED TO BE REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. WHILE THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WX THRU
SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
UNSETTLED. THE CULPRIT BEING AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW
CONUS AND INTERACTING WITH THE N STREAM. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
WITH AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
TIMING OF GREATEST RAIN THREAT. FOLLOWED WPC IN ROLLING WITH THE
SLOWER ECWMF WHICH WOULD MAKE MONDAY THE WETTEST.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT BKW AND EKN
THROUGH AROUND 15Z TODAY...BUT WILL STILL SEE GUSTS TO 20KTS AFTER
AS THE WINDS START TO VEER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL TOO TURBULENT FOR LOW CEILINGS. MVFR AT BKW
GIVEN THE UPSLOPING NATURE...AND THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
ALL SITES. WIND SHIFTS AND INCREASED GUSTS AGAIN SHOULD BE NOTED.

VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS TODAY WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE
VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE THE CAUSE FOR AN INCREASED GUST AT
EACH SITE.

ADDED LLWS TO CKB. TOUGH CALL FOR THE LOWLAND SITES...AS IT
APPEARS THE WIND IS LARGELY TURBULENT IN NATURE. RAP FORECAST
MODEL INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR LLWS TO BE AT CKB...SO WILL
ROLL WITH THAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MAY NEED LLWS TO BE ADDED TO
CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 10/28/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY IS POSSIBLE.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL/30
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

.AVIATION...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER FAR NW OK WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SE
OVERNIGHT...BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF
STRONG/GUSTY NW-N WINDS AND A FEW SHRA/RA BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
MAY SUBSIDE IN PARTS OF OK BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE FRONT/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES AWAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE S TO W...OR VARIABLE. SOME FG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND EAST OF KPNC-KSNL-KADH-KDUA FROM NOW UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR I-40. ALSO...ADDED THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. FINALLY...ADDED PATCHY
FOG MENTION EAST OF I-35 TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. NOTE THAT THE
KDDC RADAR IS DOWN...SO RADAR COVERAGE MAY BE UNDERDONE. THINK
THIS CLUSTER AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING FAR NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
A BIT NEAR I-40. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT LIFT IS RATHER
STRONG AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE. DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS MUCAPE SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG...THOUGH ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
A WIND GUST OR TWO NEAR 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SPREADS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 3 DEGREES EAST OF
I-35...ESPECIALLY NEAR ADA...COALGATE...AND ATOKA. THUS...THINK
THAT THIS HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
FORMATION. DOUBT FOG WILL GET DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL
MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS OR CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL
ABOUT 05Z. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS OK AND INTO N
TX. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW-N AT AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AT MOST
SITES INTO THE 20S KT. SCATTERED SHRA WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...BUT LITTLE OR NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THEM...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AT MOST SITES AFTER SUNRISE...THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES LATE WEEK... WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

TONIGHT... A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OFF THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE S/SE INTO NWRN OK THROUGH WED MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS EASILY VISUALIZED ON WV THIS AFTN... OVER SERN WY/NRN CO.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINOR... BUT COMBINED
WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE WAVE... SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH NOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID
MORNING ACROSS NRN OK... THE H500 SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT
TO THE EAST... WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS OK TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS TEXOMA. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THU... WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUING. A WEAK FRONT
MAY DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH WINDS RELAXING
THROUGH THU MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NRN OK. HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
NRN AND CENTRAL OK TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS TEXOMA AND WRN N TX AS
SOUTH WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE AFTN.

FRIDAY... A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
EASTWARD... DIGGING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. THROUGH FRI MORNING.
INCREASING WAA AND LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. MID TO LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT... WITH DECENT GROUPING OF GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS... SAVE FOR A FEW OUTLIERS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT...
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO DEFINITE FOR MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS E/NE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO. INSTABILITY WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE TO MINOR... WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME 200 TO
400 J/KG OF CAPE SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER... PRIMARILY LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK... NEARER THE ENHANCED
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SFC LOW AS IT SCOOTS INTO TEXOMA THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.20 TO 1.60
IN ON FRI ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN OK/WRN N TX. IF THIS IS
REALIZED... THIS WOULD BE IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
OCT PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WITH THIS IN MIND... AND GIVEN
THE GOOD AGREEMENT... EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE
POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 1.00 TO 2.25IN FRI-SAT AM... WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN OK INTO NRN TX.

SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...
EXITING EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AFTN. SO... IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON
ATTENDING THE WEATHER FESTIVAL AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER... AND
YOU SHOULD... IT IS PRETTY NEAT... YOU MAY WANT PACK A RAIN COAT OR
AT LEAST BRING AN UMBRELLA. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANTLY FALL LIKE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH A STEADY WARM
UP TO HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S.

JTK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 67 43 67 / 40 20 0 0
HOBART OK 48 68 44 69 / 30 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 44 65 36 63 / 40 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 67 38 63 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 53 73 49 73 / 0 10 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/23/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

406 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM THAT HAS COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
ONCE HURRICANE PATRICIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONTINUING
TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY MORNING. A SEASONABLY COLDER LAKE EFFECT
SHOWER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL END THE WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A FEW BANDS OF MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT QUICKLY NE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE
AXIS OF A POTENT /3-4 SIGMA/ SSE LLJ SLIDES EAST ACRS THE REGION
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TWD THE MASON/DIXON LINE.

SPC MESOANALYSIS AND 17Z HRRR INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH SFC BASED
CAPE IS NON-EXISTENT NOW...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND YIELD A
FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF THE NEWD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AND EWD MOVING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

BLENDED SREF AND HRRR QPF YIELDS ANOTHER 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

SREF PROB OF CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG PEAKS AT AROUND 50
PERCENT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH THE NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH RIBBON OF INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES 00-03Z.

SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THESE
CONVECTIVE/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEING A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH LOW-TOPPED TSRA
AND BRIEFLY STRONG SWRLY WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. THERE`S EVEN A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE
LLVL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND LCLS WELL BELOW 1000M AGL.

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT THE REAL PUSH OF
THE NEW AIRMASS DOES NOT COME UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. THUS...THE
TEMPS COULD REMAIN MILD ALL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND AND JUST A 30-40 DEG WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE LINE.

THE LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAXES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMALS. NOT MUCH RISE IS SEEN IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY. BUT SOME SUN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH POST-FRONT.
WRAP AROUND/LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL START TO CLOSE BACK IN ON
THE NW THURS EVENING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTIER IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN AND DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING TO 5-7 KFT AGL TAPS WESTERLY WINDS OF 50 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. MEAN GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30-35 KTS
RANGE...BUT A FEW COULD TICKLE THE 40 KT RANGE ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A
MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
EJECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS YET-TO-BE DETERMINED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST WITH RESPECT TO
THE PCPN PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 28/12Z MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT TUE-WED WHICH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.

A SHOT OF MODESTLY COLDER AIR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A
SECONDARY FROPA AND BRING LAKE EFFECT/HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO
THE NW ALLEGHENIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING OVERALL RAIN RISK AND TIMING/PLACEMENT/EXTENT LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OP ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A SRN STREAM
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH PLACING THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP STORM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY. IT/S SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT /AND WARM FRONT/ WILL
BRING GUSTY SE TO SOUTH WINDS...PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN...AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LLWS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY...AND MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...GIVEN INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AND VERY STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
HELP CLEAR IT OUT EARLY THU...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

GUSTY WEST TO WSW WIND AOA 30 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
15Z WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND COMBINES WITH
LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH THE BKN STRATO CU DECK.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WINDY. AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...PONDING/STANDING WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS..STREAMS AND
CREEKS BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

321 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

BLENDED SREF AND HRRR QPF YIELDS ANOTHER 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY. A COLDER AND DRIER WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A SECONDARY FROPA AND SHOULD BRING LAKE EFFECT
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND RESULT IN BRISK WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.

HEIGHTS WILL START TO REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
OUTPACING THE 00Z ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TIMING OF PCPN
WHICH COULD REACH WESTERN PA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SPREAD IN THE PCPN PATTERN CONTINUES TO GROW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN RISK/TIMING.

ONE THEME THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON IS A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP STORM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY. IT/S SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT /AND WARM FRONT/ WILL
BRING GUSTY SE TO SOUTH WINDS...PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN...AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LLWS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO WSW WIND AOA 30 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
15Z WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND COMBINES WITH
LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH THE BKN STRATO CU DECK.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WINDY. AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LONG TIME WE/VE SPENT TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND HIGH
PWATS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.25 INCH RAINFALL STORM TOTALS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
THE MOST LIKELY PROBLEMS IN THIS EVENT WILL BE VERY MINOR FLOODING
AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS CAUSING POOLING/PONDING/STANDING WATER.
THE RIVERS AND LARGER CREEKS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

629 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STRATUS IS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING SO DID ADJUST
SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD QUITE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR AND HOP WRF CLOUD
COVER PRODUCTS PICKING UP ON THE CLEARING QUITE NICELY AND SHOWS THE
CLEARING CONTINUING...BUT PERHAPS STALLING A BIT LATER THIS EVENING
FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE QUITE TRICKY AND DO NOT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE
WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO GO SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST. TOUGH
TO BALANCE ALL THIS OUT AND GET A GOOD NUMBER FOR LOWS. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...LOOKING AT 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHEAST SD INTO MN AND STILL HAVE JUST SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE CWA. MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARM UP INTO SATURDAY AS 925/850 MB TEMPS
ARE ON THE RISE WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BENEATH A MILD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. A
SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE OF ENERGY THAT KICKS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE AMONGST MODEL
RUNS. MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE OUT PERIODS...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY WHERE MVFR
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON. STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST BY 3Z THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

344 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH
HEAVIER SQUALLS REDUCING VSBY DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES. ALSO
GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET/RAIN MIXING IN AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH. WILL THEN
BE WATCHING THE VORT LOBE ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA. THIS NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OR A DUSTING TO THE NORTHEAST CWA...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

ALSO WATCHING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. ITS BEEN HIT AND MISS FOR
WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AS MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH IT OR
JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINE REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL 00Z THOUGH AS A COUPLE 20Z OBS WERE IN LOW END CRITERIA
SUSTAINED AND GUSTING CLOSE TO 45 MPH. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF
STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS
925 MB WINDS INCREASE. MAV/LAV GUIDANCE FOR SISSETON ACTUALLY SHOWS
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE LIKELY LOCALIZED TO SISSETON AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
SISSETON. PEEVER AND SUMMIT MAY SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AS WELL...BUT
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEXT SURGE WILL BE TO WARRANT
EXTENDING A WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH 06Z OR 09Z. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION FOR EVENING SHIFT. SPS
MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS AS WELL IF IT IS MORE OF A LOCALIZED
EVENT.

CLOUDS ARE THE NEXT ISSUE. STILL A WEALTH OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA AND FEEL MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AFTER SUNSET THERE SHOULD BE SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE WESTERN END. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN THE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DEPART/CLEAR OUT...BUT DID GO FOR A CLEARING TREND OVER CENTRAL
SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE THOUGH GIVEN UPSTREAM
TRENDS SO EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. RAP 925-850
RH ACTUALLY KEEPS HIGH VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDS STAYING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL A
HUGE AMOUNT.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET AS A SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS STILL TRICKY TO FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AND RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE ALREADY ONGOING BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A SHARP DROP IN THE EVENING THEN SEE READINGS STEADY
OFF OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES AS WINDS INCREASE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH...AS WE TYPICALLY SEE VERY OFTEN...FAVORED
COLD SPOTS AND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
AND STAY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL
QUITE NICELY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SKIRTING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY DRY FOR OUR
CWA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES BY THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
REGARDLESS. THE MILD PACIFIC FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN
THE TEENS...AND CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH
WINDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KABR AND
KATY TAF SITES. VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO AROUND 4
MILES WITH THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM THIS AFTERNOON SNOW MAY TURN TO LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AT KABR BY OR BEFORE 00Z AND AT
KATY BY 03Z. STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE KABR AND KATY TAF SITES...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMBG AND
KPIR...WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003>011-
015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1035 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT ON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON BOTH NEAR TERM EVENTS AND A GENERAL MODIFIED
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

NEAR TERM...OVERNIGHT: HRRR AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
UPPER VALLEY AND RANCHLANDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE RATHER
BODACIOUS...WITH SOME PERSISTENCE IN FORECASTING UP TO 2 INCHES IN
SOME SORT OF MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN FACT THAT THE REGION WAS
JUST SOUTH OF THE `WARM` FRONT EARLIER TODAY THE POSSIBILITY
SEEMED REAL...BUT WITH THE FRONT NOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THE
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TYPE OF LATE NIGHT MCS APPEARS TO HAVE
SHIFTED TO SOUTH TEXAS...IN LINE WITH ECMWF/GFS TRENDS.
STILL...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND IS
HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO ARGUE FOR SOME INCREASE AND EXTENSION
OF RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z. BASED ON THE EARLIER HI
RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF EACH
SHOWING A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING JUST TO THE WEST OF ZAPATA...HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY CATEGORY /60 PERCENT/ THERE AND SHADED
BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST. DID NOT FIDDLE MUCH WITH
QPF...CAN`T RULE OUT AN INCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS BUT
CLOSER TO 0.1 TO 0.5 WHERE IT RAINS IS MOST LIKELY.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS AND BY
EXTENSION THE 18Z GFS ALL SHOW SOME TYPE OF LINEAR/BANDED
DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 18Z...FAVORING THE POPULATED RGV AS LEADING
ENERGY AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT 250 MB JET DIVERGENCE SETTLES ON TOP
OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND COLUMN MOISTENS DRAMATICALLY ALONG
WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF GOOD TURNING..ALL WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME KIND OF MINI-QLCS
DEVELOPMENT. AS MENTIONED ON THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
SHIFT...CLOUD COVER COULD BE KEY TO STRENGTH OF ANY QLCS AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. BOTTOM LINE? BEST CHANCES FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN...LOCALLY 4...INCLUDING WESLACO THROUGH WILLACY AND POINTS
SOUTH WHICH CONTINUE WITH FLOOD POCKETS THIS EVENING...PEAKS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE RUN A 0.5 TO 0.75" QPF ON
AVERAGE...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE TEASED UPWARD.

THE BIGGER CHANGES COME FRIDAY NIGHT...IF THE GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF ARE TO BE BELIEVED. THE PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORT
WAVE VEERS LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF THE DECK TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
TAPS DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AND BUILDS A PRETTY ROBUST CAP
AT 850 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD SURGE INTO THE LOW 20S
(CELSIUS). THIS WOULD CUT OFF CONVECTION LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS OR
AT MOST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. EXACTLY WHEN THE WIND VEERS AND CAP DEVELOPS IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT EARLY ENOUGH COULD ALLOW FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOOTBALL AND PRE-HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES TO GO AS SCHEDULED. A
SECOND INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD RE-FORM NEAR THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE COVERED BY HOLDING ONTO DECENT RAIN
CHANCES.
52/BSG

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR EARLY TO MID MORNING
THUNDER AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMED A BIT EARLIER
AT KMFE AND LATER AT KBRO. MAY NEED TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO IFR
AFTER 16-18Z OR SO IF MODEL TRENDS FOR THE BIG `ACTION` CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MVFR CEILING OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT 10
TO 15 KNOT WIND...JUMPING INTO THE 18 TO 22 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY ASSUMING NO DISRUPTING MCS OR RESIDUE THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
52/BSG

.MARINE...ELECTED TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WITH
SEAS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. CORPUS CHRISTI 00Z RAOB ALREADY SHOWED
WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK AT 7 PM AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET UP TO OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH EVEN IF CUT DOWN BY THE VISCOUS MARINE LAYER
WOULD GIVE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW AND
MADE JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
52/BSG

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EDGES CLOSER. THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES IT EAST INTO
THE CWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE PROPPED UP IN THE
MID 70S. THE FAVORABLE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG SOUTH
LLJ OVERNIGHT...AND WILL FEED INTO A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL BE ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS INLAND AND
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARER THE COAST. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS ADVERTISED BY SPC...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVORING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADOES...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. HIT AND
RUN SHOWERS...AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE DAY...WILL CONTAIN BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WITH PWAT PUSHING ABOVE TWO INCHES AGAIN...COULD SEE
A QUICK INCH OF RAIN...BUT TRAINING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. QUICK MOVEMENT
ON THE OTHER HAND COULD LIMIT QPF.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER TO SUGGEST A SQUALL LINE
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO KICKOFF
THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT SHOULD ACHIEVE FAVORABLE TIMING. TWO TO
FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE...WITH SMALL SPIN-UPS
POSSIBLE. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST LATE...WITH DRY
SLOTTING AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ON SATURDAY MAINTAINING THE
THREAT FOR CONV MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH 500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER VERY LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
WILL PUSH INTO THE DESERT SW STATES WITH RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEX. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED IN ON
THE SW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WILL FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST TROUGH AXIS AS THE ECMWF TENDS TO HOLD THE TROUGH AXIS BACK
A LITTLE FURTHER WEST VERSUS THE GFS. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TEMPS/POPS.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND SEVEN FEET ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT THE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START
TO CALM DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING FROPA/MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE PGF WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF.
HOWEVER AS THE LARGE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LATER NEXT WEEK
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IN TURN BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WHICH MAY START TO TIGHTEN UP THE PGF INCREASING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK POSSIBLE PRODUCING SCEC/MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ON AND AFTER WED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 84 78 85 / 30 60 60 60
BROWNSVILLE 78 85 77 86 / 30 60 60 60
HARLINGEN 77 87 77 87 / 30 60 60 60
MCALLEN 78 88 77 87 / 30 60 50 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 88 74 87 / 40 50 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 83 79 84 / 30 60 60 60

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1020 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. DID SPEED UP SOME OF
THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE HRRR AND
HRRR-X HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BOARDER EARLIER. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW A PRETTY HEFTY INSTABILITY BURST ACROSS THESE AFOREMENTIONED
ZONES WITH 50C+ TOTAL TOTALS AND -5 TO -7C SHOWALTER INDICES. THIS
ADDS CREDENCE TO THE QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, ALL OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW SO DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH
OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE OF WHERE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.

COASTAL FLOODING...WE KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 1AM AS HIGH
TIDE MOVES ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS PORT O`CONNOR. DEPARTURES ARE
STILL ELEVATED, RUNNING ABOUT 0.6 TO 0.9 FEET ABOVE, WHICH WILL
STILL CAUSE MINOR WASHOVER ALONG OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES.
ONCE THE SURFACE WINDS VEER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WE SHOULD START
TO SEE THE DEPARTURES SHRINK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...EXPECT CIGS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
STATUS. THERE IS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THAT WILL BRING SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE REGION...STARTING TOWARD LRD
FIRST AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE ISOLATED SHRAS POSSIBLE MOVING
INLAND FROM THE GULF...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE SYSTEM OUT WEST...EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN PREVAILING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALI-CRP-VCT AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
REMAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MAY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST AND
NORTH FROM LRD TO END MENTION OF VCTS FROM LRD TAF BY 18Z. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY OUT OF THE S-SE RANGING FROM 20-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WARM FRONT CAN BE
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SLOWLY DRIFTING N. AS A
RESULT...DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE WARMER AND MUGGIER.
MODELS PROG AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO MV
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AND LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHCS ACROSS THE W CWA OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLNS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND A DRY SLOT
DVLPG AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER
ON EVOLUTION OF PRECIP ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FCST FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE GFS SOLN ACTUALLY SHOWS LITTLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRI WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION
JUST N AND S OF THE AREA DUE TO THE DRY SLOT MOVG DIRECTLY OVHD.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS THAT THE GFS ALSO SHOWS 2 INCH
PWATS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY...RRQ OF UPPER JET APPROACHING THE
AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
EAST AND INCREASING SHEAR WHICH ALL POINT TO POSSIBLY STRONG/SVR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE KEPT SPREAD OF 50 POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TO 80 POPS ACROSS THE NE CWA BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
E-NE. ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF SVR/HVY RAIN BUT ONLY WITH THE 80
POPS TO THE N. SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
BUT KEPT IT AT LIKELY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW PRECIP FRI NIGHT AHD
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT...BUT THIS CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ELEVATED
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL CONTS FRI NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR...STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THUS...HAVE A MENTION OF SVR/HVY FRI
NIGHT AS WELL. AS FOR FLOODING...AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FLOODING LIKE THE PAST EVENT DUE TO THIS SYSTEM MOVG RATHER
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA AND PWAT`S NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS AS
BEFORE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR WINDS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX/MEX WILL DEEPEN FRI AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS S TX AND THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BAYS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED FRI MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ONGOING ON SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FRONT THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL THEN EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING. THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 84 75 85 63 / 30 70 80 60 10
VICTORIA 71 82 72 82 60 / 10 80 80 70 10
LAREDO 75 87 71 86 60 / 60 50 50 20 10
ALICE 74 85 74 86 61 / 60 70 70 50 10
ROCKPORT 76 83 75 82 65 / 10 70 80 80 10
COTULLA 72 85 69 84 58 / 40 70 70 20 10
KINGSVILLE 77 86 75 86 62 / 60 60 70 60 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 83 76 83 66 / 20 60 80 70 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

GH/77...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

210 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS... AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEAVIER AXIS OF STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING AS WE SLIDE IN BETWEEN WAVES.
HOWEVER VERY STRONG VEERING PROFILE ALOFT OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ABOVE LIKELY TO COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE TO
ALLOW ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT
PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS. THIS CLOSER TO THE EARLIER GFS
SOLUTION AND NOW LATEST HRRR IN SHIFTING BEST COVERAGE NORTH AND
THEN FINALLY MORE INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY MORNING. THEREFORE
ONLY TWEAKING DOWN POPS SW AND ADDING IN SOME DRIZZLE EARLY ON
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO MOSTLY CATEGORICAL POPS WITH HIGH LIKELYS FAR
WEST OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH WITH SOME
BREAKS IN STEADIER PRECIP TO PRECLUDE FLOODING ISSUES FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE WITH RAIN HAVING TAPERED OFF SOME IN THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...CONCERN FOR BETTER MIXING DOWN OF 45-50 KT EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 85H ESPCLY THROUGH ABOUT 08Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS SO IFFY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA.
CURRENT MSAS DOES SHOW GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ONGOING WITHIN THE
WEDGE SO THIS MAY QUICKLY CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL TO MIX DOWN. THUS WILL
NEED TO WATCH TAZEWELL/MERCER CTYS WHERE HAVE ALREADY BOOSTED
SPEEDS TO HIGH END ADVISORY LEVELS.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN BASICALLY STEADY AS THE STRONG WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT
GIVEN RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE COOL POOL. THINK ONCE SOME DECREASE
TAKES PLACE WILL START TO SEE VALUES RISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT
MAY TAKE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FINGER OF THE HIGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE COMBINATION OF COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY HAS PREVENTED MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING FROM OUR EARLY MORNING LOWS...WITH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...CAUSING THE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO
WEAKEN...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ADVANCE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO VEER MORE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY...A WIND DIRECTION PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES. IN
ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
WILL INCREASE TO THE 55MPH TO 65MPH RANGE AS THE LOW PASSES WEST OF
OUR AREA.

TWO CONCERNS EXIST TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL MORE EFFICIENTLY CARRY ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...WHERE
IT WILL BE FORCED UPSLOPE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS
SUCH...BELIEVE THAT SOME SPOTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE LOCALLY
UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS...DO NOT BELIEVE THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE MORE
THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES...IF ANY AT ALL. THE SECOND
CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
CAUSING UPROOTED TREES AND LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. AS SUCH...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO ALLOW WARMER AIR TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. BELIEVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING TAKING PLACE
THROUGH DAWN.

LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY AS THE MORE UNSTABLE GULF AIR ARRIVES IN THE
AREA...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE...AND BELIEVE THAT
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY AN NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY
STORMS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CURVED HODOGRAPHS...AND IF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS IN THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROF DRIVING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL BE GRADUAL AT
FIRST BUT MAKE A BIGGER PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY AND ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
LOOKS ROBUST ENOUGH WITH GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO KEEP
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS GOING...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...INTO FRIDAY.

THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET UP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GOING INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BRIEFLY EMERGES DURING THE EXTENDED AS A CUTOFF LOW
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WORKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH. THUS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. COLD AIR WEDGE STILL IN PLACE BUT BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG LLJ IMPINGES ON THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS AND THE PARENT SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST. BANDS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND OCCASIONAL -DZ WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WED WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

BY MIDDAY...THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO A WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING
CIGS TO BECOME BKN AND LIFT TO MVFR AT WORST. THE STEADY -RA/-DZ
WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES. DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...A STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT LEAST ONE BAND OF INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY IS MARGINAL...SO FOR NOW HAVE
JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SUCH AT MOST SITES...CONFINING
THUNDER TO KDAN.

AFT 00Z...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...WITH TYPICAL UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BLF/LWB/BCB...WITH BKN MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS
STRONG LLJ TRANSLATES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
WV. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SFC...WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 13045KTS - 13050KTS UNTIL ABOUT
15Z.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ENE-ESE THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN
BECOME SSE-SSW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. SPEEDS STRONGEST IN GENERAL WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...GENERALLY 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS...MOSTLY 6-8KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THU...DIMINISHING FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCALLY 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS AND LOW STREAM
LEVELS...THIS RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE MORE THAN MINOR AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...IF ANY AT ALL.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/NF/RAB
HYDROLOGY...RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

940 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS
LAYER IS LEADING TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THE DROPS ARE SO
SMALL AND LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT RADAR HAS A TOUGH TIME
SAMPLING THESE...WHICH IS TYPICAL IN DRIZZLE SCENARIOS. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT OUT IN TIME...SINCE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK
LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH EARLY TO MID FRIDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

AT 3 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO DECORAH IOWA. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO A ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
PER HOUR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR WHICH KEPT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 30.03Z...THE
29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE 925 MB AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRAMATICALLY WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THERE IS A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING. THIS
AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LA CROSSE AREA. UPSTREAM OF
THIS CLEARING THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENT INVERSION
WHICH IS NEAR THE 875 MB. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THE 29.12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS INCLUDES THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLIMB INTO THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

ON SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AN UNUSUALLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 16C RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...16 TO 19C ON TUESDAY...AND 15 TO 17C ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MIXING
THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTS IN MID AND UPPER
60 TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND LOWER TO POTENTIALLY
MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-94 MAY BE IMPACTED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO KEPT THOSE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO
5F WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED THAT SOME AREAS SOME OF INTERSTATE 94
COULD APPROACH RECORDS LEVELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES /IN THE MID
70S/ ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIX DOWN THE VERY WARM AIR FROM ALOFT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

STRATUS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO KRST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO KLSE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL
START LIFT AND POSSIBLY SCATTER AT TIMES BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BKN MVFR DECK AT BOTH TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS CLOUD
LAYER INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. SO...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE STRATUS
SCATTERING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN
MORE LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

655 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1152 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail overnight. Clearing moving into the
area from the north and should have sct clouds at PIA and BMI by
issuance. SPI/DEC/CMI will see sct clouds in next 1-2hrs. Low
level moisture in the area from the drizzle/rain today and
satellite trends indicate keeping scattered clouds at all sites
overnight and into the early morning hours. Believe things will
become clear during the day and afternoon. Then expecting a solid
mid cloud deck to begin arriving around 00z at all sites in
advance of the next weather system. Any pcpn associated with this
system will likely hold off til around 06z, so will not put it in
the TAFs at this time. Winds will be light overnight and then
become southerly for the rest of the TAF period.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN US WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER ARIZONA.
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ALONG EASTERN
EXTENDING OF THIS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED PV
ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTS AREAS OF INCREASED FORCING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR...AS WELL AS KGLD RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA IN EASTERN
COLORADO (CHEYENNE COUNTY).

THIS MORNING-TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SHORT
RANGE HI RES GUIDANCE MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT DEPICTION/TIMING ON
RADAR AND WAS USED TO ADJUST FOR EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. BEST FORCING HIGHLIGHTED BY Q VECTORS AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AXIS STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX/HIGHER MIXING RATIOS. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT
EASTERN COLORADO WILL GET MUCH PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS AND MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL AND SUPPORT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PARTS OF NW KANSAS
(PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA). AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED TO OVERSPREAD OUR
CWA...WITH ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING (WEST TO EAST) THIS
EVENING.

OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP/CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT LINGERING.
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN NW
KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE 40. I TRENDED
HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO LOW/MID 40S ACROSS OUR EAST TODAY WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH WARMEST DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE RETURN TO A STORMY/WET PATTERN
BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A NEW WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPING/DEEPENING.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE/DEVELOP THIS TROUGH. THE
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH IN KICKING OUT THIS SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE CUTOFF.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER. GEFS IS NOT CONCLUSIVE ON ANY FRONT.

CURRENT PATTERN WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION. WPC
MANUAL 500 MB PROGS ARE SIDING MORE WITH THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
SOLUTION. SO SAYING ALL THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA STAYS DRY IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. JET AXIS ALSO IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MORE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CRH INIT GAVE ME SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
PORTIONS OF MY WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
BLEND CONTINUES TO GIVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING AND STILL BEING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE
BETTER AND STRONGER LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND MORE THAN
LIKELY 12 TO 24 HOURS AFTER THIS. POPS GIVEN TO ME DEFINITELY FIT
THIS SCENARIO AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THEM.

WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT ANYWAY BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WARM/ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE COOLING WITH A FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE BLEND CAPTURES THIS NICELY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 12KTS. FROM 11Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TERMINAL WILL SEE MVFR CIGS. COULD BE SOME VLIFR
CIGS IN THE 16Z-22Z TIME FRAME WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 10KTS BUT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 13Z WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS. FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD THE TERMINAL SHOULD EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS WITH SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 5KTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS THE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR LOWER TD VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR CWA
AND COMBINE WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TO PRODUCE LOWER RH
VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
ON TDS THIS FAR OUT...AND I COULD SEE MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND850 MB
AND TDS AROUND 20F. I DECIDED TO STAY IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RH 17-20%...BUT PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT
LOWERING TDS AS WE GET CLOSER/CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT NAM/GFS
BL WINDS/H85 WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO RFW CRITERIA BEING MET
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO
HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND MONITOR TRENDS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1110 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

SINCE THE SUN HAS SET...THE CLEARING THAT WAS WORKING ACROSS ERN
SODAK HAS ABSOLUTELY SLAMMED ON THE BRAKES. FORTUNATELY...EXISTING
TAFS WERE ALREADY FAVORING THE SLOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF VFR CIGS SO ALL THAT WAS NEEDED TO DO WAS DELAY THE
IMPROVEMENT AN HOUR OR TWO. BIGGER PROBLEM WITH THIS CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN THE VARIABLE CIG HEIGHT. EXPECT THE WORST
CONDITIONS...LIKELY DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...ON THE WEST EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH MEANS AXN/RWF WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IFR
CIGS AT TIME. FOR ERN MN/WRN WI...EXPECT THESE TERMINALS TO
MAINTAIN A 015-030 CIG THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHES THESE AREAS IT WILL BE AFTERNOON
SUNRISE WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO COME UP ANYWAYS. AS THESE CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING WRN WI...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING -RA APPROACHING RWF BY
00Z THAT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO WRN WI BY 6Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU WILL SEE RAIN AND THAT AXN WILL NOT. STC
LOOKS TO BE LIVING ON THE EDGE. BESIDE THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN AS WELL. KEPT MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED
THOUGH.

KMSP...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHES MSP TOWARD
MORNING...EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN DESCEND. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
MSP SEES IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW 017 FOR THE MORNING PUSH. DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDS AN HOUR...THOUGH LATEST NAM DOES NOT HAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT UNTIL 18Z. FOR RAIN...STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 1Z AND 4Z...WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MORNING MVFR/SHRA. VFR AFTN. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND WEST BECMG SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1133 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS EXPECTED. THE TEMP
QUICKLY FALLS INTO THE UPPER 20S ONCE THE SKY CLEARS. WITH THAT
SAID...AN AREA OF HIGH BASED CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY CLOSING THE CLEAR
GAP...AND CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BALL
PARK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING THE VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND THEN
KBJI BY LATE MORNING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

156 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. BASED ON RECENT RAP RH PLOTS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHEAST-PROGRESSING
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WAS REFINED. SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO NECESSARY
TO TEMPERATURES...AS THE COOLEST SPOTS IN THE CWA TONIGHT MAY BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS PROJECTED...AND WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AS THEY DROP INTO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE SW. AS THE LOWER CLOUDS DIMINISH...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 7 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS WORKED INTO THE TAF SITES AND WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AROUND THE TAF
SITES CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS NEAR
KCMH AND KDAY. HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KCMH AND KLCK
AND HOLD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT KILN
AND KDAY. HAVE KCVG AND KLUK CIGS STAYING VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED MVFR CIG AT ANY TAF SITE FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER LIMITED MVFR MENTION
TO LOCATIONS ABOVE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1257 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA.
VIRGA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE REACHING THE GROUND
SOON AS -RA, AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN UP. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY, BRINGING IN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AROUND 10Z. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AFFECTING ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. THE LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO VERY NEAR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CEILINGS FURTHER LOWERING POSSIBLY TO LIFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD 22Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...
DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT NEAR AND EAST OF I-35.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...WHICH
MUCH OF THIS WAS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS. THINK THESE ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUS...INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. MOST RAINFALL WILL NOT OCCUR AFTER 3 AM. THE OKLAHOMA
CITY AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY UNTIL 7 AM. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
THUNDER...THOUGH NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR. LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ENID...AND STILLWATER MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. DO
NOT THINK FROST WILL BE A PROBLEM IN THESE LOCATIONS AS INCREASING
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BECOME STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

AVIATION...
A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS &
ISOLATED TS TO DEVELOP. THE TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 12Z
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF OUR OUR REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST. LOW
CEILINGS & VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING... REDUCED TO
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS THE CEILINGS CONTINUES TO
FALL. KSPS & KLAW MAY EVEN GET FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z...
FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT THESE TWO TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY... THE WRN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL INTO THE
DESERT SW... DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PAC/GULF OF CA. IN
RESPONSE... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM THE SIERRA MADRES
IN MEXICO TO THE SANGRE DE CHRISTO MTNS IN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING... BUILDING EASTWARD... AS THE H500 TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS AZ/NM. FOR THE SRN PLAINS... THE WEAK SFC
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY... HAS STALLED OUT NEAR THE
RED RIVER. IN RESPONSE... A STOUT GRADIENT FOR TEMPS THIS AFTN HAS
DEVELOPED... WITH FALL LIKE WEATHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY... LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S AND MID 70S TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WRN N TX/TEXOMA.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WRN N TX AS THE STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY THE LLJ
WILL INCREASE... 30 TO 40 KTS... AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERALL...
INCREASES LL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE STEADILY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO E/NE THROUGH SUNRISE AS
THE SFC LOW/TROUGH LIFTS E/NE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO INTO WRN N TX
TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

FRIDAY... SYNOPTICALLY... RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES WITH THE
12Z GUIDANCE REGARDING THE SPEED/POSITION OF THE H500 TROUGH AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD. HOWEVER... QPF (QUALITATIVE PRECIP FORECAST)
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE
ECMWF HAS HAD TROUBLE LOCKING DOWN ON THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF...
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING IT SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST. WITH
THAT SAID... THE GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS... WITH THE GREATEST AXIS EXTENDING BETWEEN THE I-44 CORRIDOR
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN
ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND CONSIDERING IT
HAS SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE NAM...
AND LATEST ARW/NMM WRF SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE... INCREASED CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY... NEAR OR AT 100 PERCENT FOR MOST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN TX INTO SRN OK FOR NEARLY ALL DAY AS WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE REGION OF
GREATEST ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO THE AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY... BETTER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
IN NRN TX THAN IN SRN OR CENTRAL OK... THEREFORE... WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN CHC TO SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN OK AND WRN N
TX THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT... EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO TAPPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS WRN OK... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN OK INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY AIR INTRUSION BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/WRN OK. KEPT HIGHER CHANCES
GOING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN OK... WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF
QUICKLY THROUGH SUNRISE SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY... MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES... WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF
QUICKLY AFTER NOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BODES WELL FOR THE
WEATHER FESTIVAL HERE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER... I WOULD
STILL PACK AN UMBRELLA... BUT IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE A PLEASANT FALL
DAY. AS FOR TRICK OR TREATERS SATURDAY EVENING... ONLY THOSE IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK WILL POTENTIALLY NEED A PONCHO OR UMBRELLA...
THOUGH MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF
OK.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS... GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY DISCUSSED ABOVE...
EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO MATERIALIZE FROM NEAR THE I-
44 CORRIDOR EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK... AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE THOUGHTS FROM WPC... AND GIVEN THE OVERALL
SUPPORT... INCREASED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3.50 INCHES
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH... I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 OR 4.50 IN OCCUR. ELSEWHERE... IN WRN
AND NRN OK... AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF TO 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY... FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL GREET YOU WHEN YOU ARISE... WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE AFTN. THIS GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
TAKES HOLD BEFORE ANOTHER WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN OKAY
AGREEMENT... BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER LEADING INTO THU/FRI AS THE
ECMWF TRIES ONCE AGAIN... LIKE IT DID WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM...
TO CUTOFF THE H500 TROUGH. HOWEVER... THE OVERALL TREND IS
SIMILAR... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

JTK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 64 48 73 / 80 20 10 0
HOBART OK 49 65 45 73 / 50 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 67 48 73 / 80 20 10 10
GAGE OK 43 65 40 74 / 50 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 48 64 44 73 / 80 30 0 0
DURANT OK 58 68 52 71 / 100 30 10 10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/68/68

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1206 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. STRATUS IS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING SO DID ADJUST
SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MVFR CLOUDS NEAR KATY...IT SHOULD BE VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1259 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND 09-14Z FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED DRG THE
AFTN/EVENING. GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN FRIDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 75 85 63 80 / 70 80 60 10 10
VICTORIA 82 72 82 60 78 / 80 80 70 10 10
LAREDO 87 71 86 60 82 / 50 50 20 10 10
ALICE 85 74 86 61 81 / 70 70 50 10 10
ROCKPORT 83 75 82 65 78 / 70 80 80 10 10
COTULLA 85 69 84 58 80 / 70 70 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 86 75 86 62 81 / 60 70 60 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 83 76 83 66 79 / 60 80 70 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

WC/87...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 1400FT AT KBKS AND KAPY TO
NEAR 2500FT AT KMFE. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH FOG AT KPIL
TO NEAR 6SM WITH HAZE AT KHRL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY FRI MORNING AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES ON FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT ON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON BOTH NEAR TERM EVENTS AND A GENERAL MODIFIED
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR EARLY TO MID MORNING
THUNDER AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMED A BIT EARLIER
AT KMFE AND LATER AT KBRO. MAY NEED TO LOWER VISIBILITY TO IFR
AFTER 16-18Z OR SO IF MODEL TRENDS FOR THE BIG `ACTION` CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MVFR CEILING OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT 10
TO 15 KNOT WIND...JUMPING INTO THE 18 TO 22 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY ASSUMING NO DISRUPTING MCS OR RESIDUE THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
52/BSG

MARINE...ELECTED TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WITH
SEAS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. CORPUS CHRISTI 00Z RAOB ALREADY SHOWED
WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK AT 7 PM AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET UP TO OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH EVEN IF CUT DOWN BY THE VISCOUS MARINE LAYER
WOULD GIVE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW AND
MADE JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1151 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES OF 1200 TO 2500 FT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT KRST. ALSO...SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIMES TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOWER
CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THE
STRATUS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOK FOR RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAT SITES LATE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Early morning shallow fog across the northern CWA has burned off.
Satellite and surface obs showing a more concentrated area of
stratus and dense fog lingering over northern Illinois, basically
going around the north and northeast edges of our forecast area,
and boundary layer winds have been pushing this more to the
east/northeast recently. So, main focus for us will be with
increase in clouds from the southwest as cirrus streams in from
Missouri. Temperatures off to a cool start across especially the
northwest CWA where the fog was earlier, but still think most
areas should get well into the 50s today. Recent zone/grid updates
were mainly to adjust the sky trends and temperatures over the
next few hours.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending
from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley. Despite presence
of ridge axis, clouds persist across part of the area due to
low-level moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. Latest
IR satellite imagery shows overcast conditions along/southeast of
a Danville to Jacksonville line, with mostly clear skies further
north. Mean 925-850mb flow is from the north, so these clouds
are slowly pushing southward and should exit the KILX CWA over the
next 2-4 hours. Will have to keep an eye on additional low
clouds currently across northern Iowa: however, these have begun
to show signs of shifting in a more easterly direction, so think
they will remain just north of the area early this morning. End
result should be a mostly sunny start to the day everywhere. As
the high moves off to the east, the next system will quickly begin
approaching from the west by late in the day. Forecast soundings
show a pronounced increase in 500-300mb layer RH, so think a thick
shield of high clouds will blanket the sky by late afternoon.
Given a good deal of sunshine for much of the day, high
temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday mainly
in the middle to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over the
Northern Rockies will track eastward over the next 24-36 hours,
tapping into copious Gulf of Mexico moisture and producing
widespread rain across central Illinois. NAM shows strong 50kt
850mb jet developing from east Texas into Missouri tonight, then
shifting eastward into Illinois on Saturday. This feature will
pull unseasonably high amounts of moisture northward ahead of the
approaching upper wave, with NAM precipitable water values
reaching the 99th percentile for this time of year in the 1.25 to
1.50 inch range. Given deep-layer moisture and adequate upper
dynamics, will carry categorical PoPs along/west of I-55 after
midnight with chance PoPs further east to the Indian border.
Categorical PoPs will spread across the entire area on Saturday
before the wave pushes off to the east and rain ends from west to
east by Saturday night. Total rainfall with this system will
generally be around a half an inch...with isolated higher amounts
likely. Due to the widespread rain, Halloween will be a rather
chilly day with highs only in the lower to middle 50s.

Once the northern-stream wave passes to the east, the weather will
improve markedly by early next week. The deep upper low currently
over the Desert Southwest will get ejected eastward by the Saturday
wave, but will remain well south of Illinois as it tracks mainly
eastward across the Deep South/Tennessee River Valley Sunday into
Monday. Any precip associated with this feature will remain well
south of the area.

Main weather story next week will be the pronounced warming trend. A
highly amplified upper pattern is expected to develop across the
CONUS, with a deep trough digging into the Rockies/Desert Southwest
and a strong ridge building downstream across the remainder of the
country. This pattern shift has been well-advertised by the models
for days, with the 00z Oct 30 model suite remaining in excellent
agreement. Both the GFS and ECMWF show anomalously high upper
heights across Illinois with 850mb temps reaching the 14-16C range
Monday through Wednesday. This will result in high temperatures
climbing into the lower to middle 70s. After that, the main
challenge will be timing the gradual break down of the ridge and the
arrival of a baroclinic zone ahead of the western CONUS upper
trough. The GFS had previously shown WAA precip developing across
the area as early as Wednesday, but this was rejected in favor of
the slower ECMWF. Latest run of the GFS has predictably backed
off on the Wednesday precip and is now more in line with the
ECMWF, focusing best rain chances by the end of the week. As a
result, will continue the dry forecast through Wednesday, with
chance PoPs arriving by Thursday.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

Challenging forecast this morning as a band of stratus and low
vsbys was located just north of PIA and BMI with a gradual shift
to the south noted on the latest satellite loop. RAP sounding
data and HRRR time height cross sections suggest a brief period
of IFR cigs will be possible at both sites in the 12z-15z time
frame before boundary layer winds turn more southerly which should
shift the lower clouds and vsbys back to the north just after 15z.
Once that occurs, VFR conditions will prevail over the forecast
area into the afternoon hours with an increase in mid and high
level clouds expected ahead of the next rain maker slated to push
into our area after 03z tonight with cigs expected to drop to MVFR
in the 08z-11z time frame. Surface winds will remain light and
variable this morning and then turn into a southerly direction by
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kt range.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

554 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

535 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE RETURN TO A STORMY/WET PATTERN
BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY OBSERVED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS AND
RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY UPSTREAM ALL THE WAY TO TEXAS PANHANDLE
STREAMING NORTH. AS LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CIGS WITH
MODERATE SHOWERS...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING EVEN AFTER RAIN COMES TO AN END. VIS IS LESS CERTAIN DUE
TO POTENTIAL MIXING WITH RAINFALL...HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR VIS
APPEARS LIKELY CONSIDERING MODERATE RAIN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS MET GUIDANCE AND
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW FOG/LOW CIG SIGNAL PERSISTING THROUGH
12Z. OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY BL FLOW BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ADVECTING DRIER AIR OVER BOTH TERMINALS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT IN THE NEGATIVE SOLUTIONS
AND INSTEAD FAVORED VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06-07Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY. THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON HALLOWEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL FOLLOW. HIGHS COULD BE NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TOUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TOO. THE
SPRINKLES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE LAKESHORE...BUT MAY
ALSO OCCUR ALONG A DENSER CLOUD BAND ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-96.
ADDED SOME 10 POPS TO COVER THE SPRINKLES.

DRIER AIR DOES GRADUALLY MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO FEEL
ANY SPRINKLES WILL END BY 20Z. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SUN...BUT
THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO OUR GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA SOUTH OF I-96 TO I-94 SINCE BTL...AZO AND RMY ALL HAVE DENSE
FOG AS I WRITE THIS. THIS WAS THAT AREA OF CLEAR SKIES THAT CROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN A FEW HOURS AGO THAT IS NOW DOWN THERE. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL COME BACK DOWN THERE TOO AND THAT WILL END THE FOG
BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO ME THIS FOG COULD STILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN
THE RAIN EVENT ON HALLOWEEN.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN I-94 AND
ROUTE 10 BUT CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY SUNRISE SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL ARE A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUT THOSE
SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING SO I DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN OUR
FORECAST.

ON HALLOWEEN... WE HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEING SHEARED
OUT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT OVER US. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HELPS TO STREAM MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO
THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES FROM UNDER A
HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH SATURDAY (2 TIMES NORMAL). THE
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE AIMED AT MICHIGAN AGAIN
AND THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR 1 MB DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS. ALSO WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K SURFACES SO THIS IS A GOOD WARM
ADVECTION LIFT EVENT. AIDED BY STRONG JET DYNAMICS. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS IT WILL RAIN. THE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THROUGH SO THERE IS NOT MUCH RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA THE NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THAT WILL
LEAD TO MANY DAYS IN A ROW OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER DRY WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE WED
NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME. WE WILL SEE A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVE BY THE
AREA WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. A FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AT THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A DECENT GULF FEED UP INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL OF RAIN

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AN AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED WITH THE I-94 TAF SITES. THIS WAS
AN AREA WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND THE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY... FOG DEVELOPED. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THAT AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS AND THAT
SHOULD END THE DENSE FOG.

BEYOND THE FOG ISSUE... IR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF I-96 AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE CLOUDS HOLDING MOST
OF THE DAY SO I WILL CONTINUE VFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

AS FOR BRINGING IN THE RAIN FOR TOMORROWS EVENT...MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE AFTER 18Z BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THE I-94 TAF SITES COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN AFTER 12Z.
SINCE THAT IS BEYOND OUR FORECAST WINDOW I DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING
THAT IN OUR 12Z TAF SET.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

I PLAN TO LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS IT IS IN
THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL GETTING ENOUGH WIND AND
WAVES TO KEEP IT GOING. WE MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT I WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THAT ISSUE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 36 HOURS. AREA RIVERS HAVE LARGELY RESPONDED WITH MINOR
RISES WITHIN BANKS. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL HAVE LIMITED
IMPACT ON RIVERS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

WE WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COME
BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AMOUNTS OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS RECEIVED
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

739 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN...AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO IRON COUNTY.
SPECKLES OF ECHOES ON RADAR ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD AND KCMX REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN AN HOUR OR SO AGO. THERE IS HINT OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH ON WV LOOP AND THAT LIFT ALONG WITH ALREADY MOIST LOW-LEVELS
AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DRIZZLE. DO NOT EXPECT DRIZZLE TO LAST MUCH INTO
THE MORNING AS LATEST RAP GUDIDANCE INDICATES SHORTWAVE LIFT WEAKENS
AFTER DAYBREAK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
WHICH MINIMIZES UPSLOPE LIFT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A BRIEF BOUT OF EARLY WINTRY
WEATHER FOR PARTS OF UPR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
IS POISED TO CROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY FLOW BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -5C IS RESULTING IN ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND HARVEY AS OF 4 AM EDT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH DAYBREAK BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN AND WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHWEST IN LOWEST 3KFT...EXPECT ANY
LAKE EFFECT TO END BY MID MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF FALL IT IS NOW THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHEN A RIDGE DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUAL CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THAT COULD BE THE CASE TODAY...AT LEAST FOR
PORTIONS OF CWA. CURRENTLY THERE ARE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF MN AND INTO AT LEAST
NORTH HALF OF WI. LOW CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WHEN WORKING EAST
OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
TODAY...SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS PRESENT JUST ABOVE H85...BUT MINIMAL
WARMING ABOVE INVERSION SHOULD NOT ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH.
ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BTWN H9-H8
AND IT REALLY NEVER GOES AWAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SW FLOW THINK
AREAS THAT ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ATTM /PARTS OF MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES INTO DELTA COUNTY/ COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
KEWEENAW INTO BARAGA COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING. BEST
CHANCE FOR CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL BE OVER SW UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS...COULD
SEE A 50 DEGREE READING.

ATTN TONIGHT TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN AND
MONTANA AS WELL AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR SW CONUS. AS
THESE TWO UPPER WAVES HEAD EAST AND SFC HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST...WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 290-300K SFCS /H85-H65/ SPREAD INTO WESTERN CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE OVER CNTRL CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE JUST A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN. MID-LEVEL DRYING
COULD END THE RAIN LATE AT IWD AND CMX. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OVER 1 INCH STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVERALL THE
LIFT IS WEAK TO MODERATE. BOTH FACTORS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIGHT WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED TERM FOCUSES ON POPS EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND RELATED TO A WAA REGIME AHEAD OF A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS AND APRCHG FM THE W. NEXT WEEK...
THE UPR FLOW WL CHANGE TO ONE THAT FEATURES A BLDG UPR RDG ACRS THE
E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W. THIS
PATTERN WL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT WED...WHEN UPR MI WL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW TRACKING FM THE PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA. HI TEMPS AOA 60 WL BE PSBL ON WED.

SAT...AXIS OF STRONG SW FLOW/HIER PWAT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST
DEPICTED ON THE 295K SFC /ABOUT H75/ RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN ON FRI
NGT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE E AND GIVE WAY TO SOME DRYING/
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY E IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO
APRCH LATER IN THE DAY AND SLOW DOWN THE DRYING TREND AS THE UPR
FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE RESULT WL BE A LONGER DURATION
OF RAIN AND LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA/GREATER HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WRN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY...THE LARGER SCALE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING MOIST AXIS WL LIMIT LINGERING POPS IN THAT AREA. CLDS AND
SHOWERS WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
HALF WHERE THICKER CLDS AND PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT.

SAT NGT...INCOMING SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING E ACRS THE UPR LKS AND
GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DNVA W-E LATER AT NGT. SINCE THE
LARGER AREA OF MSTR WL STILL BE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA WHEN THE
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA ARRIVES...WL CARRY THE HIER LIKELY
POPS IN THAT AREA DURING THE EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS OVERNGT AND
ADVECTS DRIER INTO THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. SO TRICK-OR-TREATERS MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME RAIN. OVER THE W HALF...POPS WL BE LIMITED
BY MORE DRY AIR. EXPECT THE HIER CHC POPS IN THIS PART OF THE CWA
OVER THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTW TRACK/DEEPER MSTR. PCPN CHCS WL END W-
E LATER AT NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND THE DNVA BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS NO LOWER THAN 0-2C...THERE WL BE NO
LK EFFECT PCPN. GOING MIN TEMPS NOT FAR FM 40 APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
THE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE W DUE TO EARLIER CLRG.

SUN/SUN NGT...THE DAY ON SUN WL AT LEAST START ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
SOME SUNSHINE AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA...BUT APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW ALF AND SOME DVLPG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL RESULT IN AT LEAST
THICKENING MID CLDS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN IN
THIS RELATIVELY WEAK WAA REGIME MAINLY ON SUN NGT. BUT GFS FCST
SDNGS SHOW SOME FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR...SO WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST
FOR NOW OVER THE LAND CWA AND RESTRICT COVERAGE OF SCHC POPS TO LK
SUP CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO AND WHERE GREATER LENGTH
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WOULD GENERATE HIER RH. WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO
AT LEAST START THE DAY AND H85 FCST TO RISE TO 6-8C TOWARD 00Z
MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUN TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
50S. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLDS/A STEADY WSW WIND ON SUN NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

MON...WEAK HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHRTWV WL BRING DRY WX
TO THE CWA ON MON TO THE S OF A SHRTWV TRACKING THRU NW ONTARIO.
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 8C AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...HI TEMPS WL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND IN THE 50S.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPR FLOW FM A ZONAL REGIME TO ONE
THAT FEATURES A BLDG RDG OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE W COAST DURING NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO ON MON...ITS WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE SE ACRS UPR MI. SINCE MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED AND
HGTS WL BE RISING...EXPECT THIS FROPA TO BE A DRY ONE. HI PRES IS
THEN PROGGED TO FOLLOW INTO NW ONTARIO WHILE THE FNT STALLS ACRS THE
UPR MIDWEST. AS LO PRES DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF...THE FNT WL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE N AS A WARM FNT. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOW THE SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE PLAINS ON WED
PASSING FAR ENUF TO THE W OF UPR MI THAT THE WARM FROPA LATE TUE
NGT/EARLY WED WL BE A DRY ONE. AS THE LO CONTINUES NE THRU ONTARIO
ON THU...ASSOCIATED COLD FNT WL DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...BRINGING
ONLY A CHC OF RA TO MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE ABSENCE
OF SGNFT HGT FALLS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WL RUN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WED WHEN THE CWA WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX AND KSAW TODAY...SO CIGS MAY LIFT TO LOW VFR
AT TIMES. LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS MOVES OVER ALL THE TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE VSBY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR LATE AT KSAW AS
THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A HI PRES RIDGE
CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES...EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
THE HI MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND LO PRES DRIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE W AND
NCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES ACCENTUATE
THE SW FLOW. SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON SAT WILL THEN VEER TO THE W ON
SAT NIGHT AND SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAKER
PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN
THE RAIN EVENT ON HALLOWEEN.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN I-94 AND
ROUTE 10 BUT CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPEAD THE AREA
BY SUNRISE SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID
AFTERNOON. THERE STILL ARE A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUT THOSE
SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING SO I DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN OUR
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

BEYOND THE FOG ISSUE... IR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF I-96 AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCIONSIN. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THE CLOUDS HOLDING MOST
OF THE DAY SO I WILL CONTINUE VFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. DRY AIR GETS BRIEFLY INTO KCMX
FRI MORNING AND AT KSAW WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

930 AM PDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS AND INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

GUSTY WINDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...THOUGH MOSTLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
CRESTS...INCLUDING SANTIAGO PEAK AT 71 MPH AROUND 7 AM AND PLEASANTS
PEAK AT 64 MPH AROUND 6 AM. GUSTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS THE
NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE...WERE MOSTLY UNDER 50 MPH. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN...BUT HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SOME
MODERATE WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 2 PM...THEN WEAKENING. A MINOR BUMP UP IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...BUT MOST WIND GUSTS WILL BE BELOW ABOUT 35 MPH.

AN EAST PAC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING AND WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER SO-CAL SATURDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING TO SLIDE SSE AND FLATTENING. A GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY...WITH SOME HIGHS OVER 90 IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE AND THE LOWER DESERTS...AND LOCALLY IN INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE ABSENT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON LOCAL
WRF...THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE STRATUS/FOG JUST OFF THE
COAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO IDAHO
BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
TROUGH PLACEMENT...THEY ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE WAVES AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE...HENCE THOSE
MOVING THROUGH SO-CAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDER LIGHTER WITH THE
PRECIP AS MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...MOSTLY BELOW 800 MB IN
SO-CAL. BEST OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES ARE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE BEST THERE.
OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL GET ONLY ONE-QUARTER INCH OR LESS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE TWO
STRONGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH MSLP GRADIENTS AND
HEIGHT GRADIENTS BEING FAIRLY STRONG...WITH ABOUT 9 MB ONSHORE FLOW
BASED ON THE NAM FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT
TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...WITH SOME
DAYTIME TEMPS 10 TO LOCALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. BIG BEAR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
40 TUE/WED...WITH QUITE A LOT OF 60S AT THE COAST. SOME WARMING
COULD HAPPEN LATE NEXT WEEK AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...THOUGH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE CONSENSUS AFTER ABOUT WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...
301530Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE STRONG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KONT AND KPSP WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING STILL EXPECTED. LLWS WILL DECREASE BUT
RETURN LATE TONIGHT AT WEAKER LEVELS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW THE 20 MPH GUSTS.

.MARINE...
830 AM...NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
KT PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM ORANGE COUNTY TO SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND IN THE OUTER WATERS. FOR DETAILS CHECK THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...LAXMWWSGX. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
AND AN INCREASE IN SWELL MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG THE RIDGES OF THE SAN
GABRIEL...SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW THE CAJON
PASS. ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 11
AM...AND OVER 40 MPH THROUGH AROUND 2 PM.

HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND VERY
LOCALLY AROUND 9 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
LIKELY BE TOO SHORT IN DURATION TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. WEAKER
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. A SLOW COOLING
TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
INLAND EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...TARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE RETURN TO A STORMY/WET PATTERN
BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIELD PERSISTS OVER HIGH PLAINS. HEAVIER
PRECIP CONFINED EAST OF COLORADO BORDER WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WEST OF THE BORDER. ANTICIPATE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES OUT AS SEEN AT KGLD OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES
AWAY BUT LOW STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. THIS
EVENING...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDES IN. AS THIS HAPPENS...WINDS
BECOME WEST AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW BRIEF FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AS LOW AS ONE MILE POSSIBLE. KGLD MOST LIKELY TO
OBSERVE FOG BUT KMCK MAY EXPERIENCE THIS AS WELL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

131 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

OVERALL DEGRADING TREND IS DUE TO TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH
CIGS/VIS/WX LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
CONSISTENT HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1245 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

DRIER AIR DOES GRADUALLY MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO FEEL
ANY SPRINKLES WILL END BY 20Z. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SUN...BUT
THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN
THE RAIN EVENT ON HALLOWEEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

NO FLOODING IS ONGOING. MINOR RISES HAVE OCCURRED ON AREA RIVERS
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF UNDER AN INCH. RIVER LEVELS
ARE PEAKING OR ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY DOWN. WITH UNDER AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT... EXPECT A REPEAT OF MINOR RISES ON RIVERS WITH NO FLOODING
THROUGH MID WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A RELATIVE LULL IN OUR HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE NOW THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR
CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH OF AN AUSTIN TO LA
GRANGE LINE...EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
300 M^2/S^2 AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45 KTS WILL ALLOW ANY
STRONGER CELLS TO ROTATE SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED
THE TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST SIX COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7PM CDT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC OUT OF AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION SHOULD CAPE RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS THE LAST FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ONION CREEK
HAS EXPIRED BEFORE TWO SEPARATE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

ATTENTION FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR...HILL COUNTRY...AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU TURNS OUT WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE SERRENIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NE PART OF SAN ANGELOS CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME AGITATED CU IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z TX TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED THE
TIMING OF THIS INITIATION RELATIVELY WELL COMPARED TO MOST OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE...SO TRUST THAT AT LEAST A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM CDT. FAVORABLE
HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
THESE CELLS DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE...SO STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE...SEVERE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT RUN OF
THE HRRR AND TX TECH WRF INDICATE WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AROUND 3-5 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCLUDE A
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GIVEN THE 5-10 INCHES AND ISOLATED 12-16 INCH TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM A SWATH FROM FAR NW BEXAR
COUNTY TO WIMBERLEY TO EAST AUSTIN TO ELGIN...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS WILL DIRECTLY RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING AND FURTHER COMPLICATING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
WHILE THE TX TECH WRF SHOWS IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS...SO HOPEFULLY
THE BROKEN LINE MATERIALIZES TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THESE ISSUES
OR THE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
CLEARER SKIES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CAUSE A COOL AND
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE DOES NOT
BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 79 57 77 50 / 70 40 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 80 57 77 48 / 70 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 57 78 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 54 75 51 / 80 30 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 79 53 82 51 / 50 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 55 75 51 / 80 40 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 54 80 50 / 60 10 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 80 57 77 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 81 59 76 53 / 80 60 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 56 78 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 57 79 51 / 70 20 - 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER HISTORICAL OCTOBER FLOOD EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A SWATH OF 6 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS...AND AT LEAST 16 INCHES 5 MILES SW OF KYLE...OBSERVED
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO THROUGH
WIMBERLEY AND KYLE TO SOUTHEAST SIDES OF AUSTIN. BACKBUILDING
CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY AND
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CELL TRAINING CONTINUES TO OCCUR. THIS...COUPLED WITH A 50 KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY LESS DEEP THAN IT WAS A FEW HOURS
AGO WHEN UP TO 6 INCH/HR RAIN RATES WERE OBSERVED...THIS TRAINING
WILL CONTINUE A SIGNIFICANT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
PRIMARILY ALONG A LINE ORIENTED FROM SAN MARCOS TO ELGIN TO
LEXINGTON. FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
FAR NW BEXAR...MOST OF COMAL AND HAYS...AND THE ONION CREEK BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TRAVIS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO VERY LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO BASTROP...LEE...EASTERN
TRAVIS...AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS CELLS CONTINUE MOVING INTO THESE AREAS. ISOLATED RAIN
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ALSO
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 300 M^2/S^2. ALTHOUGH
THIS THREAT IS WINDING DOWN TO SOME EXTEND DUE TO A RELATIVE LACK
OF DISCRETE CELLS...ANY NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LINE AND INTO THE TRAINING LINE MAY HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT BY FAR FOR THIS
EVENT IS SIGNIFINCANT FLASH AND SUBSEQUENT RIVER FLOODING.

THE AFTERNOON AFD WILL COVER MORE ABOUT HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE TONIGHT...BUT HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD CELLS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
IT WILL SEEM LIKE A LULL COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL. HI-
RES AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GENERALLY NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT VERY
WELL...BUT THE CURRENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS DO INDICATE THIS AS
WELL...THOUGH THINKING IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE AS THEY
SUGGEST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CELLS TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AFTER 20-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 1-3Z. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL THINKING 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE TOO WORKED OVER FROM AN INSTABILITY
STANDPOINT TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FOCUSED AREA AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING
TONIGHT...FEEL THE HRRR IS PROBABLY TOO AGRESSIVE ON THAT AT THE
MOMENT. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME STORM EVENT
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 18-20 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE I-35
TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF SAT/SSF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO END TSRA BY 13-14Z...WHILE TSRA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
16Z AT AUS WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR AT SAT/SSF FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AT AUS THROUGH 16Z
ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS TO MIX BEFORE THEN. TSRA ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT DRT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SITE.

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS PACIFIC MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE...BUT ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21-22 AT SAT/SSF. BASED ON HI-RES
MODEL TRENDS AND A GENERALLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...A
LINE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 23Z AT DRT AND
3-4Z AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND FUTURE MODEL
RUNS SHOULD HELP REFINE THESE TIMES WITH THE NEXT AFD. RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD END TSRA CHANCES BY
SUNRISE WITH NW WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ARE WELL
UNDERWAY AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE METRO CITIES DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES STACKING UP OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING MEANS THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NEGATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS CRUISING AT 30 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ONLY MINIMAL AREAS OF TRAINING EXPECTED. CURRENTLY EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD FORM IN AN UPSTREAM PROPAGATION REGION BY
DAYBREAK AND LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. WILL WANT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS BEFORE CONSIDERING A FFA. STORM TOTAL EXPECTED AMOUNTS FOR
NOW REMAIN AT 2-4...ISOLATED 6...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND OUTSIDE THE EFFECTIVE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THREAT...THE
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS THE LOOK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BASED ON ELEVATED
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHOUT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ROTATING STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO
OCCUR TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES
40-55 KNOTS AND CAPES EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR AN MCS THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF I-35 IN THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH THE COOL OUTFLOW SURGING THE CONVECTIVE LINE EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TX BY DAYBREAK. THUS PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR FLOODING IN
OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO END AT AROUND DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LEAVES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF MILD AND DRY DAYS TO RECOVER...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY MOISTURE
BEGINS RACING ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WILL TAKE THE HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOWN BY THE GFS WITH SOME
DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM...BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL PERIODS OF
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 66 78 57 77 / 100 90 40 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 66 79 54 77 / 100 90 40 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 67 82 56 79 / 90 90 40 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 62 74 54 75 / 90 90 30 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 61 79 53 82 / 70 70 20 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 65 76 54 75 / 90 90 40 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 83 54 80 / 90 80 30 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 67 80 57 77 / 100 90 40 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 70 80 58 76 / 90 80 70 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 67 82 57 80 / 90 90 30 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 84 58 80 / 80 80 30 - -

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY