Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/29/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
437 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE STATE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH BAY. MORNING
LIGHT RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY THROUGH HALLOWEEN WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS. A COLDER
TROUGH MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:04 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WAS SOME MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT THE CLOUD COVER HAS SHUT DOWN THE RADIATIONAL
FOG WITH ONLY WATSONVILLE CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4 MILE. THE HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW A FEW SCOUT SHOWERS TODAY IN THE NORTH BAY BUT
EXPECTING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
SKIES STAY CLOUDY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
70S FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT.
LONG TALKED ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. IN GENERAL RAIN TOTALS HAVE BACKED OFF
WITH THE BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE FOR THE NORTH BAY WEDS
MORNING WHEN 0.10-0.25 IS POSSIBLE. THERE`S NO COLD ADVECTION OR
GOOD FORCING WITH MAIN JET ENERGY STAYING TO OUR NORTH. SOME HIT
AND MISS SHOWERS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE GREATER BAY AREA AND DOWN
TO AROUND MONTEREY BAY ON WEDS BUT IN GENERAL RAINFALL IS LOOKING
LIGHT AND SPORADIC WITH AREAS SOUTH OF SALINAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END BY
WEDS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD ON THURSDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER RETURNING. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SET UP WITH
SOME MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAY AREA
HILLS. IF THE MIDWEEK RAINS DONT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL MAY BECOME FRONT AND CENTER WITH A FAIRLY CLASSIC
FALL OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN IN PLACE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
STRADDLES THE COAST.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FROM THE 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DOWNSLOPE WARMING OFF THE HILLS.
MODELS BEING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A COLD TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR OVER THE SFO BAY
AREA THIS MORNING WITH RH AS MUCH AS 20-30% LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING. PATCHY CIGS IN THE MRY BAY AREA MAINLY AROUND SNS SHOULD
CLEAR EARLY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KT AFTER 20Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS
AS LOW AS 2-3 MILES THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. AS A RESULT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
404 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE STATE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH BAY. MORNING
LIGHT RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY THROUGH HALLOWEEN WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS. A COLDER
TROUGH MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:04 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WAS SOME MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT THE CLOUD COVER HAS SHUT DOWN THE RADIATIONAL
FOG WITH ONLY WATSONVILLE CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4 MILE. THE HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOW A FEW SCOUT SHOWERS TODAY IN THE NORTH BAY BUT
EXPECTING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
SKIES STAY CLOUDY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
70S FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT.
LONG TALKED ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. IN GENERAL RAIN TOTALS HAVE BACKED OFF
WITH THE BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE FOR THE NORTH BAY WEDS
MORNING WHEN 0.10-0.25 IS POSSIBLE. THERE`S NO COLD ADVECTION OR
GOOD FORCING WITH MAIN JET ENERGY STAYING TO OUR NORTH. SOME HIT
AND MISS SHOWERS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE GREATER BAY AREA AND DOWN
TO AROUND MONTEREY BAY ON WEDS BUT IN GENERAL RAINFALL IS LOOKING
LIGHT AND SPORADIC WITH AREAS SOUTH OF SALINAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END BY
WEDS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD ON THURSDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER RETURNING. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SET UP WITH
SOME MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAY AREA
HILLS. IF THE MIDWEEK RAINS DONT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL MAY BECOME FRONT AND CENTER WITH A FAIRLY CLASSIC
FALL OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN IN PLACE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
STRADDLES THE COAST.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FROM THE 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DOWNSLOPE WARMING OFF THE HILLS.
MODELS BEING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A COLD TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PDT MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. WILL GO MODERATELY
PESSIMISTIC BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE REPORTS. BURN-OFF SLATED FOR
AFTER 16Z. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AND WILL MOSTLY STAY
UNDER 10 KT BY 07Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP SFO DOWN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 015. WINDS WILL DROP
TO UNDER 10 KT AFTER 07Z. VFR RETURNS AFTER 17Z. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS DOWN TO 002 AND VIS OF POTENTIALLY LESS THAN 1/2 SM.
WINDS UNDER 10 KT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:07 AM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. AS A RESULT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1024 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. IN WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:44 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A LARGE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE MAKING IT HARD TO
SEE WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE COAST REVEAL LOW CLOUDS PERSIST UNDER A SHALLOW 800 FOOT MARINE
LAYER PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER. THE BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION WILL HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE COAST AND LOCALLY INTO COASTAL VALLEYS AND BAYS.
COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS DIPPING
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
THE DISTRICT...HOWEVER DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE EURO HAS THE WETTEST AND
FASTEST SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS LAGS ONLY SLIGHTLY BEHIND. THE 12Z
EURO BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS 18Z ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THIS SEEMS EARLY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF SONOMA COUNTY
AROUND 16Z TUESDAY. THE EURO SPREADS SHOWERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
REACHING THE NORTH BAY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING HOWEVER THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP DOESN`T
REACH THE NORTH BAY TIL WELL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST BRINGS IN A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND SPREADING SOUTH TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTIONS SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND
IS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 1.10"
AND 1.30" OVER THE REGION...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVING SAID THAT...DO EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE GREATEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
BAY WHERE COASTAL RANGES COULD PICK UP BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.50" FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE BAY AREA COULD PICK UP BETWEEN 0.10"
TO 0.25" WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" FURTHER SOUTH. AS TYPICAL
WITH THESE SYSTEMS...OTHER COASTAL RANGES FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD COULD PICK UP 0.25" IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
ONCE THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ALOFT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION.
AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND DIVES INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED REGION- WIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN RELAX LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY INTO
NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PDT MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. WILL GO MODERATELY
PESSIMISTIC BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE REPORTS. BURN-OFF SLATED FOR
AFTER 16Z. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AND WILL MOSTLY STAY
UNDER 10 KT BY 07Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP SFO DOWN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 015. WINDS WILL DROP
TO UNDER 10 KT AFTER 07Z. VFR RETURNS AFTER 17Z. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS DOWN TO 002 AND VIS OF POTENTIALLY LESS THAN 1/2 SM.
WINDS UNDER 10 KT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:41 PM PDT MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE FIRST
WINTER SWELL OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A SWELL OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS. PLEASE BE PREPARED FOR ROUGH
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND BREAKING WAVES NEAR
OFFSHORE REEFS AND SAND BARS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS COOL AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
808 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015
HIGHER LEVEL COUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD HAVE SOME AFFECTS ON LOW TEMPS AND FREEZE
WARNING IF THESE CLOUDS LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NERN CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS THE CURRENT
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN AS YOU HEAD
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WILL ISSUE
A FREEZE WARNING FOR LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES AS THEY HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE YET.
EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING INTO ARIZONA WILL PUSH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. BORDER AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE MAIN LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
WE WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVER THE PLAINS...THE LOW LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY AND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A MAINLY
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS WOULD FAVOR MOST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALSO NOTED IN THAT REGION.
DRIER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING. ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
FOR HALLOWEEN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SUBSIDENCE...AND WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO LOCATIONS
IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND DECENT MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER NOTED
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM MODEL AVERAGES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE MILD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
RETURNING CLOSE TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ON THE PLAINS. BY LATE
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW MOVER SO MAIN IMPACT OF
THIS ONE MAY NOT REACH US UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY. WILL KEEP MOST POPS CONSERVATIVE
AND MAINLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY TRENDED TO SELY. APPEARS A WK SFC LOW WILL
REMAIN NR DENVER OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP KEEPING AN
ESE COMPONENT THRU 12Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
COZ048>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
814 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPR LOW WAS INVOF THE MN/IA BORDER AT 21Z. SOLID BAND OF RAIN
PRODUCING AROUND 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IN 2 HRS WAS LIFTING NEWD THRU
THE CWA. ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...SHWRS WERE INCREASING WITH SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN VA.
BASED ON RADAR AND STLT...HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST SLIGHTLY TO
INDICATE RAIN THIS EVE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SCT
TSTMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE PCPN...BUT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY AT LEAST SOME
LGT RAIN AND/DZ IS LIKELY...THEREFORE THE CHANGE.
OTHERWISE...FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVIEST SHWRS
AND TSTMS WITH THE RR QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET LATE TNGT.
WRT WINDS...AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE WRMFNT...GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN RATHER
STRONG. NO WIND RELATED HEADLINES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...OR A STRONG GUST OF 45 TO 50
MPH. GUSTS THOUGH DEPEND ON IF WINDS ALOFT MIX THROUGH THE
INVERSION...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY.
CHC OF 50+ MPH GUSTS IN ANY STRONGER TSTMS LATE TNGT.
FOG IS EXPECTED AS WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTS OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
12Z...LIKELY CLEAR OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 12Z. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER INITIALLY FOR
EASTERN LOCALES...THEN MINIMAL POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS DRIER AIR COUNTERS ANY LINGERING WEAK LIFT ALOFT. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT TRAVERSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
A VERY WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER A WARM START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
ONSET OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.
A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON CU WILL SCATTER
BY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WESTERN DEEP TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE DEVELOP INTO A BLOCKY PATTERN.
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OPENS AND
WEAKENS..MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS MUCH OF FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IN
PLACE. WARM ADVECTION SETS UP LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. THE GFS DOES DRY UP THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WET. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL
RAINFALL IF ANY DOES OCCUR.
WITH THE NORTHERN STEAM WAVE PASSING SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ONCE
AGAIN WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS SUNDAY DAMPENS AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND EVEN THROUGH WPC BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH OPTED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN AND
HEIGHTS ARE RISING. WEDNESDAY DRY EITHER WAY AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NEARLY DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH OFFSHORE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP THE BLOCKY PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FROPA THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FROPA LATE
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL IFR FLIGHT CAT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH SECOND AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN
THIS EVENING.
WARM FROPA SHOULD OCCUR CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...WITH SE SFC WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT...A SECOND ROUND OF LLWS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 50-55 KT AT FL020...AND SCT TSTMS. COLD FROPA
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z-12Z...FOLLOWED BY WIND SHIFT
TO WSW AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.
VFR WITH W WINDS 10-15G20-25 KT EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF G25-30KT POSSIBLE 14Z-17Z THU.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF G25-30KT POSSIBLE 14Z-17Z THU.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF G25-30KT POSSIBLE 14Z-17Z THU.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF G25-30KT POSSIBLE 14Z-17Z THU.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF G25-30KT POSSIBLE 14Z-17Z THU.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF G25-30KT POSSIBLE 15Z-18Z THU.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING W WINDS.
.FRI...VFR. WSW WINDS G20KT.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST...E-SE GALES
SHIFT SE-S THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU.
GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT AT THIS TIME AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE
TO CRITERIA.
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL BE QUITE ROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE
SLOWLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT REMAIN RATHER ROUGH FOR
QUITE SOME TIME.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO
NEAR 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY...THEN SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. DUE NOT EXPECT FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
AND RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MINOR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A
LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FREEPORT GAUGE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MOST OTHER LOCALES.
THE NIGHT TIME HIGH TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOWER...SO SIMILAR
DEPARTURES WILL BRING LEVELS CLOSE TO BENCHMARKS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...MINOR BEACH EROSION ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SURF
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
147 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE WIDELY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUR NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING GULF
LOW...SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO
Indiana. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS MY EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER WEST...AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. IT
APPEARS THE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL BE VERY LOW TONIGHT...BUT NOT
ZERO. THE BEST CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
INTO VERY EARLY Wednesday MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
New England southwestward to the Central Plains...while a 1005mb low
continues to spin over Louisiana. Showers from the Gulf Coast low
have been slowly spreading northward over the past several hours,
but have been encountering a very dry mid/low-level airmass beneath
the surface ridge as evidenced by the 00z KILX upper air sounding
and current surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 30s across the
northern half of the CWA. This dry air has been impeding the
northward progress of the precip...with 08z/3am radar imagery and
surface obs indicating very light showers/sprinkles confined to
locations along and south of a Litchfield to Paris line. HRRR has a
decent handle on the current situation and suggests light rain will
likely not make it north of the Peoria area until after sunrise.
Have therefore cut back PoPs early this morning, especially across
the far N/NW CWA where dry air will delay precip onset. Once the
airmass moistens sufficiently and an upper-level trough
approaching from the west provides increasing synoptic lift, rain
will become widespread across the entire area by mid to late
morning through the afternoon. Thanks to the rain and a brisk
easterly wind of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures today will be
considerably cooler than yesterday with readings remaining in the
50s in most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
FRIDAY WILL BE A QUIET BUT COOL DAY AS TRANSITORY RIDGING BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST...ALLOWING FOR SOME RECOVERIES FROM HIGHS ON THURSDAY. AFTER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START, CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS DO NOT PAINT A CLEAR PICTURE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO GET CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. TO
WHAT DEGREE THIS OCCURS WILL DIRECTLY TRANSLATE TO WHETHER THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN OCCASIONALLY RAINY, OR IF A BREAK OCCURS ON
SUNDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON HALLOWEEN,
FOLLOWED BY SOME CHANCE POPS SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE TIME FRAMES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
60S WITH PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE LOW SLIPS NORTHEAST, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS UP A WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
NORTHWARD. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME LIFTING CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE COOL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS HOLDING THE LIFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY WILL VARY FROM 1-3
MILES AS THE RAIN BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
WINDS IN THE MID TEENS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH
THE RAIN THE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN TEMPERED.
ISOLATED TSRA DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT PROBABILITY STILL TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AFTER 09Z-12Z AND WEAKEN SOME AS THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN TURN WSW BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE LOW, BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KB
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...KMD
AVIATION...KMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
658 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
New England southwestward to the Central Plains...while a 1005mb low
continues to spin over Louisiana. Showers from the Gulf Coast low
have been slowly spreading northward over the past several hours,
but have been encountering a very dry mid/low-level airmass beneath
the surface ridge as evidenced by the 00z KILX upper air sounding
and current surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 30s across the
northern half of the CWA. This dry air has been impeding the
northward progress of the precip...with 08z/3am radar imagery and
surface obs indicating very light showers/sprinkles confined to
locations along and south of a Litchfield to Paris line. HRRR has a
decent handle on the current situation and suggests light rain will
likely not make it north of the Peoria area until after sunrise.
Have therefore cut back PoPs early this morning, especially across
the far N/NW CWA where dry air will delay precip onset. Once the
airmass moistens sufficiently and an upper-level trough
approaching from the west provides increasing synoptic lift, rain
will become widespread across the entire area by mid to late
morning through the afternoon. Thanks to the rain and a brisk
easterly wind of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures today will be
considerably cooler than yesterday with readings remaining in the
50s in most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
Rain will continue tonight as the Louisiana low tracks northward
across central Illinois. Forecast soundings remain quite stable,
but do show modest elevated instability as the upper trough
arrives. Think this may be just enough to produce a rumble or
two of thunder, so will continue to mention isolated thunderstorms
tonight. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, showers will
gradually diminish from southwest to northeast on Wednesday. Total
rainfall with this system will generally be around 1 inch...with
higher totals of 1 to 2 inches focused along/east of the I-57
corridor into the Ohio River Valley.
Thanks to deepening surface low pressure over the Great Lakes and an
approaching deep upper low, Thursday is shaping up to be the coolest
day of the forecast period. Cloud cover associated with the upper
system will likely remain just north of the CWA across northern
Illinois. Despite abundant sunshine, brisk W/NW winds gusting to
around 25mph will create a distinct chill as high temperatures
struggle to reach the lower to middle 50s. After a very cool night
Thursday night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 30s,
temperatures will begin to rebound well into the 50s on Friday as
high pressure drifts across the area.
Models are still having trouble resolving the next potential system
over the weekend. An upper low is expected to dive into the Desert
Southwest on Friday, then slowly track E/NE through early next week.
Exactly how quickly this process unfolds remains in question, as the
models differ on how amplified the low will become. The 00z Oct 27
GEM is the deepest and furthest south with the low, keeping it over
northwest Mexico until finally ejecting it northeastward into the
Midwest by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF are both more
progressive...with the GFS tracking the low across the area on
Sunday and the ECMWF on Monday. Given the considerable model
spread, have opted to make few changes to the going forecast which
follows the GFS closely. As a result, have introduced chance PoPs
late Friday night into Saturday as a northern-stream wave approaches
from the Northern Plains and have continued PoPs through Sunday
night as the Desert Southwest low ejects northeastward. Have then
gone with a dry forecast for Monday. Will need to watch future
model trends closely...as further adjustments will likely be needed
for the PoP forecast over the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
Widespread MVFR ceilings are in place across central IL this
morning with areas of showers providing IFR vsby/cigs. Isolated
LIFR as well. Conditions will tend to deteriorate through this
evening as responsible low pressure system continues to
approach. Isolated TSRA possible overnight, but probability too
low for mention in TAFS at this time. Widespread LIFR cigs/IFR
vsby expected by 00Z. Winds E 10-15 kts with higher gusts during
the afternoon hours. Winds veering to S-SW after 09Z- 12Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
324 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
New England southwestward to the Central Plains...while a 1005mb low
continues to spin over Louisiana. Showers from the Gulf Coast low
have been slowly spreading northward over the past several hours,
but have been encountering a very dry mid/low-level airmass beneath
the surface ridge as evidenced by the 00z KILX upper air sounding
and current surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 30s across the
northern half of the CWA. This dry air has been impeding the
northward progress of the precip...with 08z/3am radar imagery and
surface obs indicating very light showers/sprinkles confined to
locations along and south of a Litchfield to Paris line. HRRR has a
decent handle on the current situation and suggests light rain will
likely not make it north of the Peoria area until after sunrise.
Have therefore cut back PoPs early this morning, especially across
the far N/NW CWA where dry air will delay precip onset. Once the
airmass moistens sufficiently and an upper-level trough
approaching from the west provides increasing synoptic lift, rain
will become widespread across the entire area by mid to late
morning through the afternoon. Thanks to the rain and a brisk
easterly wind of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures today will be
considerably cooler than yesterday with readings remaining in the
50s in most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
Rain will continue tonight as the Louisiana low tracks northward
across central Illinois. Forecast soundings remain quite stable,
but do show modest elevated instability as the upper trough
arrives. Think this may be just enough to produce a rumble or
two of thunder, so will continue to mention isolated thunderstorms
tonight. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, showers will
gradually diminish from southwest to northeast on Wednesday. Total
rainfall with this system will generally be around 1 inch...with
higher totals of 1 to 2 inches focused along/east of the I-57
corridor into the Ohio River Valley.
Thanks to deepening surface low pressure over the Great Lakes and an
approaching deep upper low, Thursday is shaping up to be the coolest
day of the forecast period. Cloud cover associated with the upper
system will likely remain just north of the CWA across northern
Illinois. Despite abundant sunshine, brisk W/NW winds gusting to
around 25mph will create a distinct chill as high temperatures
struggle to reach the lower to middle 50s. After a very cool night
Thursday night with lows dipping into the lower to middle 30s,
temperatures will begin to rebound well into the 50s on Friday as
high pressure drifts across the area.
Models are still having trouble resolving the next potential system
over the weekend. An upper low is expected to dive into the Desert
Southwest on Friday, then slowly track E/NE through early next week.
Exactly how quickly this process unfolds remains in question, as the
models differ on how amplified the low will become. The 00z Oct 27
GEM is the deepest and furthest south with the low, keeping it over
northwest Mexico until finally ejecting it northeastward into the
Midwest by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF are both more
progressive...with the GFS tracking the low across the area on
Sunday and the ECMWF on Monday. Given the considerable model
spread, have opted to make few changes to the going forecast which
follows the GFS closely. As a result, have introduced chance PoPs
late Friday night into Saturday as a northern-stream wave approaches
from the Northern Plains and have continued PoPs through Sunday
night as the Desert Southwest low ejects northeastward. Have then
gone with a dry forecast for Monday. Will need to watch future
model trends closely...as further adjustments will likely be needed
for the PoP forecast over the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015
A developing low pressure system will lift into the Midwest
Tuesday from the lower Mississippi Valley. The approach of this
system, and associated rainfall, will have conditions across the
central Illinois terminals rapidly decrease from VFR to IFR or
lower late tonight into Tuesday morning. Once the rains and IFR
conditions develop, they should linger through the 06Z TAF valid
time and beyond. Easterly winds will prevail through the period to
the north of the approaching low.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1114 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHOWERS HAVE EXPANDED INTO A BROKEN LINE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS
SUCH...WENT UP TO LIKELY POPS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE ACTUALLY DECOUPLED THANKS TO
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL BACK IN
UPSTREAM. DID UP THE LOWS A TOUCH BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AS THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
POPPED UP FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS SCHEDULED...GIVEN THE DIMINISHMENT OF INSTABILITY. ALSO ALIGNED
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER DROP OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES/BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A FEW EMBEDDED ENHANCED ECHOES AS
WELL. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AGAIN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH IT WILL THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL RETURN. SEEING SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS LINE OF THINKING FROM
THE HRRR AS WELL. BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
AT UPPER LEVELS...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS STILL A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEMS EXIT
MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD FROM TX
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN. RAIN WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER DRIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY BUT THEN BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. ONLY A
STRAY SHOWER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 05Z...BEFORE SHOWERS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU IN THE 4-6K
FEET AGL RANGE WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE 2-3K FEET AGL RANGE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW OR SO BETWEEN 05 AND
11Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL OCCUR
OUT AHEAD OF FRONT AND ALONG IT...AS WELL AS DURING PEAK MIXING ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
853 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AS THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
POPPED UP FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS SCHEDULED...GIVEN THE DIMINISHMENT OF INSTABILITY. ALSO ALIGNED
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER DROP OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES/BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A FEW EMBEDDED ENHANCED ECHOES AS
WELL. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AGAIN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH IT WILL THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL RETURN. SEEING SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS LINE OF THINKING FROM
THE HRRR AS WELL. BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
AT UPPER LEVELS...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS STILL A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEMS EXIT
MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD FROM TX
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN. RAIN WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER DRIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY BUT THEN BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. ONLY A
STRAY SHOWER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 05Z...BEFORE SHOWERS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU IN THE 4-6K
FEET AGL RANGE WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE 2-3K FEET AGL RANGE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW OR SO BETWEEN 05 AND
11Z FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL OCCUR
OUT AHEAD OF FRONT AND ALONG IT...AS WELL AS DURING PEAK MIXING ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY REDUCED POPS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS WITH MOST RADAR ECHOES NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND...BUT THEN INCREASED POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME BRIEF BANDING OF RAINFALL SHOWN IN MODEL FORECASTS. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER EXPANDED IN COVERAGE. THAT SCENARIO WAS EXPLAINED WELL
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHICH FOLLOWS BELOW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA. A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS GET ABSORBED BY A VERY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK.
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES SUGGEST THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAXIMA MAY WELL APPROACH 60-70 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FAVOR INVERSION HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RIDGETOPS
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION DRAG WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND GUSTS. EVEN BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL...NAM
CONUS NEST PLOTS AND HRRR VALUES SUGGEST 45-55 KTS OF WIND GUST
POTENTIAL IN CHESTNUT/LAUREL RIDGES AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN
WAVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES. DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TOPOGRAPHY RELATIVE TO THE FLOW...THIS FAVORS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL PRIMARILY IN FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA COUNTY. THE
POTENTIAL IS A BIT LESS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND. THAT
SAID...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE FORECAST...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE...MOUNTAIN WAVE GUST POTENTIAL DECREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FLOW DIRECTION CHANGES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DEEPER STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN SHADOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES TO BE
ERADICATED AS DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING JET STREAK
AND DIFFERENTIAL PVA COUPLED WITH SKINNY CAPE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD A DECENT LINE FORM
ALONG THE FRONT...GIVEN THE MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN...A SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
HAS OUTLINED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A MARGINAL RISK...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...THIS SEEMS A PRAGMATIC APPROACH.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER DO NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY WELL RISE
DUE TO INCREASING MIXING...AND CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SPOTS MAY WELL TOUCH 70F
BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS OVERHEAD LATER IN
THE WEEK. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
NECESSITATING THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE POPS UNTIL ITS EXIT.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT...WHICH LEADS TO CONCERN FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS DEEP MIXING LAYER WITH WIND AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION
APPROACHING 40-45KTS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF THIS
WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...HAVE OPTED TO MENTION THE
THREAT IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE SHOWERS END THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT A DRY REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY PIVOT TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...RETURNING THE REGION
TO COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A VARIABLE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST IS
TIMED TO DETERIORATE CONDITIONS WITH RAIN BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WOULD AGAIN DRY THE PROGNOSIS EARLY IN THE NEW WORK-WEEK.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF WPC AND
GFSMOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY FEATURES CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS
AT...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS FINALLY SATURATE. MANY OF
THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO DRIER AIR. SO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS WAS PUSHED BACK A BIT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO CIG AND SOME
VSBY RESTRICTIONS...GUSTY ESE WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE
RIDGES. HAVE OPTED TO CARRY GUSTS VERSUS LLWS THOUGH THE CONCERN
IS THERE FURTHER WEST.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ073>076.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
341 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA. A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS GET ABSORBED BY A VERY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK.
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES SUGGEST THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAXIMA MAY WELL APPROACH 60-70 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FAVOR INVERSION HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RIDGETOPS
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION DRAG WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND GUSTS. EVEN BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL...NAM
CONUS NEST PLOTS AND HRRR VALUES SUGGEST 45-55 KTS OF WIND GUST
POTENTIAL IN CHESTNUT/LAUREL RIDGES AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN
WAVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES. DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TOPOGRAPHY RELATIVE TO THE FLOW...THIS FAVORS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL PRIMARILY IN FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA COUNTY. THE
POTENTIAL IS A BIT LESS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND. THAT
SAID...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE FORECAST...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE...MOUNTAIN WAVE GUST POTENTIAL DECREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FLOW DIRECTION CHANGES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DEEPER STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN SHADOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES TO BE
ERADICATED AS DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING JET STREAK
AND DIFFERENTIAL PVA COUPLED WITH SKINNY CAPE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD A DECENT LINE FORM
ALONG THE FRONT...GIVEN THE MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN...A SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
HAS OUTLINED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A MARGINAL RISK...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...THIS SEEMS A PRAGMATIC APPROACH.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER DO NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY WELL RISE
DUE TO INCREASING MIXING...AND CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SPOTS MAY WELL TOUCH 70F
BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS OVERHEAD LATER IN
THE WEEK. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
NECESSITATING THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE POPS UNTIL ITS EXIT.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT...WHICH LEADS TO CONCERN FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS DEEP MIXING LAYER WITH WIND AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION
APPROACHING 40-45KTS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF THIS
WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...HAVE OPTED TO MENTION THE
THREAT IN THE HWO.
ONCE THE SHOWERS END THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT A DRY REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY PIVOT TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...RETURNING THE REGION
TO COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A VARIABLE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST IS
TIMED TO DETERIORATE CONDITIONS WITH RAIN BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WOULD AGAIN DRY THE PROGNOSIS EARLY IN THE NEW WORK-WEEK.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF WPC AND
GFSMOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY FEATURES CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS
AT...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS FINALLY SATURATE. MANY OF
THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO DRIER AIR. SO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS WAS PUSHED BACK A BIT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO CIG AND SOME
VSBY RESTRICTIONS...GUSTY ESE WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE
RIDGES. HAVE OPTED TO CARRY GUSTS VERSUS LLWS THOUGH THE CONCERN
IS THERE FURTHER WEST.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ073>076.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1156 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA. A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS GET ABSORBED BY A VERY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK.
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES SUGGEST THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAXIMA MAY WELL APPROACH 60-70 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FAVOR INVERSION HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RIDGETOPS
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION DRAG WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND GUSTS. EVEN BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL...NAM
CONUS NEST PLOTS AND HRRR VALUES SUGGEST 45-55 KTS OF WIND GUST
POTENTIAL IN CHESTNUT/LAUREL RIDGES AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN
WAVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES. DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TOPOGRAPHY RELATIVE TO THE FLOW...THIS FAVORS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL PRIMARILY IN FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA COUNTY. THE
POTENTIAL IS A BIT LESS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND. THAT
SAID...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE FORECAST...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE...MOUNTAIN WAVE GUST POTENTIAL DECREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FLOW DIRECTION CHANGES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DEEPER STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN SHADOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES TO BE
ERADICATED AS DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING JET STREAK
AND DIFFERENTIAL PVA COUPLED WITH SKINNY CAPE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD A DECENT LINE FORM
ALONG THE FRONT...GIVEN THE MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN...A SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
HAS OUTLINED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A MARGINAL RISK...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...THIS SEEMS A PRAGMATIC APPROACH.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER DO NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY WELL RISE
DUE TO INCREASING MIXING...AND CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SPOTS MAY WELL TOUCH 70F
BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS OVERHEAD LATER IN
THE WEEK. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
NECESSITATING THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE POPS UNTIL ITS EXIT.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF WIND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE...AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...BUT IT WILL BE
RATHER GUSTY FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY.
ONCE THE SHOWERS END THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT A DRY REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DAY OF NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY THE LATE OCTOBER SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A VARIABLE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST IS
TIMED TO DETERIORATE CONDITIONS WITH RAIN BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WOULD AGAIN DRY THE PROGNOSIS EARLY IN THE NEW WORK-WEEK.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF WPC AND
GFSMOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY FEATURES CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS
AT...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTH AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES.
CONDITION DETERIORATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED AFTER DARK AS THE LLVLS
SATURATE.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS STRONG LOW PRES CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN CANADA AND
PULLS A CDFNT ACRS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ073>076.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WINDOW FOR STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE
ACCOMPANYING LINE OF SHOWERS. STRONGEST GUSTS /35 KNOT RANGE/
THROUGH 08Z. ANOTHER PEAK IN SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS MIXING ENSUES
AFTER 13Z...AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGH END GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL. POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT BACK INTO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THIS MOISTURE.
COLDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LAKE MODIFIED MOISTURE TO WORK
DOWNSTREAM ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER COVERAGE OF LOWER CLOUD /MVFR/ AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT MAINLY MBS/FNT DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
FOR DTW...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN THE 05Z-06Z WINDOW...BEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS FRONT /05Z-08Z/. A RENEWED PEAK IN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THURSDAY.
* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD AROUND 250 DEGREES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 923 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
UPDATE...
DYNAMIC CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL
STRUCTURE POSITIONED ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE PRONOUNCED INBOUND
HEIGHT FALLS ON SCHEDULE TO RAPIDLY MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. COLD FRONTAL TIMING LOCALLY STILL
CENTERED 05Z-07Z. NARROW BUT STOUT AXIS OF ASCENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE CURRENTLY ANCHORING A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SEEMINGLY
TIED TO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...NOTING A BROADER SPECTRUM OF GUSTS
WITHIN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE ACCOMPANYING THIS PRECIPITATION.
ALSO ACKNOWLEDGING THE PEAK GUSTS AT AURORA AND MIDWAY AIRPORT IN NE
IL /45 AND 41 KNOTS/ WITH A TRAILING CELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BULLSEYE OF RAPIDLY INCREASING POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC
DESCENT...THERE WILL REMAIN A WINDOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER END
GUSTS /40+ KNOTS/ TO EMERGE IF AUGMENTED BY CONVECTION. ABSENT OF
THIS...GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE POST-FRONTAL REMAIN A
SOLID CALL...WITH NEITHER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OR RECENT
HRRR/RAP/NAM GUIDANCE PROVIDING SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR SEEING AN
ADVISORY WORTHY WIND EVENT TONIGHT. SIMPLY MINOR/COSMETIC TWEAKS TO
THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
LOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A
MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDER EXISTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH INTO SE MI IS HELPING DECREASE THE COVERAGE
OF THE STEADY RAINS THAT PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WEALTH OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN DZ OVER MOST OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS OF ACTUAL SHOWERS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE THETA E PLUME LIFTS NE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AROUND 05-09Z. MODELS SHOW LOW CAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES...AND SKINNY CAPE AT THAT LOCATED FROM THE SFC UP TO
AROUND 8KFT. IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK CAPE...SHOWALTER INDEX BRIEFLY
DIP NEGATIVE AND COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LL LAPSE RATES. 850MB/500MB
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -5C/-30C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM...06Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH REGARD TO TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN
THINKING. THIS DYNAMICALLY INTENSE FEATURE WILL RACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RAW GUIDANCE CANNOT CAPTURE
WIND GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO THE FRONT`S COMPACT HORIZONTAL SCALE.
HOWEVER, ARW/NMM PROGS SHOW HINTS AT SUSTAINED 20+KTS WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE FINALLY CONFIRMING PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH SIMULATED WIND GUST SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
WITH FROPA. THIS IS SUPPORTED METEOROLOGICALLY BY INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE NOSE OF THE FRONT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL STRONG POSITIVE OMEGA
VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FORCINGS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB
WITHIN A WIND FIELD THAT DOES TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS JUST
BENEATH THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THUS, WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING FROPA, AND MAY NECESSITATE A
SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING 45 MPH ISN`T
THERE YET DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD. NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD ALSO ALSO BE NOTED THAT STRONG CONVERGENT
FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH WITHIN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS. THE ENTIRE THREAT PERIOD FOR ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE NO
LONGER THAN ABOUT 90 MINUTES.
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30
KTS TO THE SURFACE THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY. CAA WILL QUICKLY
EASE, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BY AFTERNOON, FORCING WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE
THERMAL MIXING PROCESS AND MIXING EFFICIENCY WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
DECREASE. THUS, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND GUSTS IS EXPETED
THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON. ALSO, A MODEST LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE WILL
ENHANCE EXISTING CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ENGULF THE ENTIRE
CWA AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERS RAIN SHOWERS, PERHAPS
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES COULD SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO THE SURFACE WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS NORTH OF PONTIAC, BUT THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION.
NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE BY THIS TIME, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. STRATUS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MODEST RECOVERY IN THE THERMAL FIELD BY THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
NEAR 50 UNDER DECREASING CLOUDS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SATURDAY. INTERMODEL CONTINUITY HAS INCREASED WITH THIS
FEATURE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS FOR THE TRI-CITIES SATURDAY /CHANCE
ELSEWHERE/ AND LIKELY AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO REAL COLD AIR OF
NOTE WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...AND UPPER HEIGHT RISES
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS KEEPING THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH WEST CONUS/RIDGE EAST
CONUS PATTERN...KEEPING US VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
MARINE...
PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST GALES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
HOURS OF DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE WATERS. GUSTS
TO STRONG GALES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. GALES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 10
FEET OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 FEET. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MINIMIZE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ422.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443-464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1013 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
WET AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN PERSISTENT. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...ELSEWHERE IT WILL DRY
OUT...WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING. AFTER A DRY FRIDAY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY. AFTER A COOL PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD WARM TO 60 TO 65 FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TOUCH UP WIND GUSTS AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES NORTH/SOUTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 131...PLOWING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS
OF 40+ MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOW REMAIN IN PLACE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MIDDAY. 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR SUSTAINED WINDS INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. A FEW POWER OUTAGES
HAVE SHOWN UP ON THE CONSUMERS PAGE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE AS GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
BRING DOWN DEAD LIMBS ONTO POWER LINES.
AS FOR THE PRECIP HAVE 80+ PCT POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP GENERATION WILL ROLL INTO FULL SWING. DELTA T/S BY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 18C WITH A LAKE TEMP OF 13C AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C. HAVE OPTED TO THROW IN THE MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN INTERIOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT -5C SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH AND THE HRRR PRECIP TYPE AGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG
VORT COMES IN WITH IT SUPPLYING LIFT...SO THE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WE WILL ALSO SEE H8 TEMPS PLUNGE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...WE WILL STAY WET. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE
EXITS.
IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND RAW THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 45 TO 50
WITH A STRONG WIND. BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
LAKESHORE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT AND STILL HIGHLIGHT
40 MPH GUSTS...AND 35 MPH INLAND. THE HIGHER WINDS KICK IN TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL FINALLY END. SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN 30S FOR LOWS.
DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD RETURN OVER THE NW CWA LATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
THE MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS FORECASTED
TO OPEN UP AS IS TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SOME OF IT/S
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. A
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO ADVECT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL WAVE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL
THEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY NEARING THE MI/IN BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ZONAL BEHIND THIS DEPARTING WAVE. THIS
MEANS A WARM UP FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD SHOULD END UP WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...WHICH MAY OFFSET THE DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS I KEPT VALUES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BY FAR...WILL BE THE
WIND. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z. SPEEDS DURING THAT
TIME WILL BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS.
MVFR WILL BE THE PREVALENT CATEGORY THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOWER
CLOUDS HANG IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
CEILINGS MAY LIFT FOR A TIME TO VFR LATER TONIGHT...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO JUST YET. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED
WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS...BUT SOME WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS
AT KMKG AND KGRR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE GALE WARNING THE ONLY
HEADLINE OUT NOW. GALES ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTS AT THE MOMENT IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. WAVES SHOULD PEAK
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 10-15 FOOT RANGE. MANY OF THE NEARSHORE
BUOYS...SOUTH HAVEN...BRIDGMAN AND PORT SHELDON WERE PULLED FOR
THE SEASON IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MID LAKE BUOY CURRENTLY HAS 7
FOOTERS AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WAS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ANYWAY HAS UNDERPERFORMED THUS FAR. TOTALS HAVE
MOSTLY BEEN BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER END
TOTALS CONFINED TO JACKSON COUNTY. THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON DID
SPIKE TO 10.15 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT HAS FALLEN SINCE. BANKFULL IS
13 FEET.
AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FROM SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THIS DOES NOT
POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
923 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
DYNAMIC CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL
STRUCTURE POSITIONED ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE PRONOUNCED INBOUND
HEIGHT FALLS ON SCHEDULE TO RAPIDLY MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. COLD FRONTAL TIMING LOCALLY STILL
CENTERED 05Z-07Z. NARROW BUT STOUT AXIS OF ASCENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE CURRENTLY ANCHORING A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SEEMINGLY
TIED TO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...NOTING A BROADER SPECTRUM OF GUSTS
WITHIN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE ACCOMPANYING THIS PRECIPITATION.
ALSO ACKNOWLEDGING THE PEAK GUSTS AT AURORA AND MIDWAY AIRPORT IN NE
IL /45 AND 41 KNOTS/ WITH A TRAILING CELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BULLSEYE OF RAPIDLY INCREASING POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC
DESCENT...THERE WILL REMAIN A WINDOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER END
GUSTS /40+ KNOTS/ TO EMERGE IF AUGMENTED BY CONVECTION. ABSENT OF
THIS...GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE POST-FRONTAL REMAIN A
SOLID CALL...WITH NEITHER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OR RECENT
HRRR/RAP/NAM GUIDANCE PROVIDING SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR SEEING AN
ADVISORY WORTHY WIND EVENT TONIGHT. SIMPLY MINOR/COSMETIC TWEAKS TO
THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 742 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOCAL AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS HOVERING IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE A LOCALIZED GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS. PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOW CARRYING A MORE CHAOTIC CEILING GIVEN CONTINUED
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HIGHER DEGREE OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. STRONG COLD FRONT ON SCHEDULE TO
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS 05Z-07Z TONIGHT. WINDOW FOR A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WSW GUSTS INTO THE 35 KNOT RANGE WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL AUGMENTED BY
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS ALIGNED ALONG THIS FRONT. UPSTREAM
EVIDENCE THAT THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL CARRY A MORE LIMITED
DURATION...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A TEMPO. ANOTHER PEAK IN
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS BETTER MIXING ENSUES FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGH END GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.
FOR DTW...WELL MIXED SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY CONDITIONS AND MORE VARIABLE CEILING HEIGHTS /2000 TO 4000 FT/
THROUGH 05Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN THE 05Z-06Z WINDOW...BEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS FRONT /05Z-08Z/. A RENEWED PEAK IN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THURSDAY.
* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD AROUND 250 DEGREES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
LOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A
MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDER EXISTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH INTO SE MI IS HELPING DECREASE THE COVERAGE
OF THE STEADY RAINS THAT PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WEALTH OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN DZ OVER MOST OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS OF ACTUAL SHOWERS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE THETA E PLUME LIFTS NE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AROUND 05-09Z. MODELS SHOW LOW CAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES...AND SKINNY CAPE AT THAT LOCATED FROM THE SFC UP TO
AROUND 8KFT. IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK CAPE...SHOWALTER INDEX BRIEFLY
DIP NEGATIVE AND COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LL LAPSE RATES. 850MB/500MB
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -5C/-30C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM...06Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH REGARD TO TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN
THINKING. THIS DYNAMICALLY INTENSE FEATURE WILL RACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RAW GUIDANCE CANNOT CAPTURE
WIND GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO THE FRONT`S COMPACT HORIZONTAL SCALE.
HOWEVER, ARW/NMM PROGS SHOW HINTS AT SUSTAINED 20+KTS WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE FINALLY CONFIRMING PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH SIMULATED WIND GUST SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
WITH FROPA. THIS IS SUPPORTED METEOROLOGICALLY BY INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE NOSE OF THE FRONT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL STRONG POSITIVE OMEGA
VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FORCINGS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB
WITHIN A WIND FIELD THAT DOES TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS JUST
BENEATH THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THUS, WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING FROPA, AND MAY NECESSITATE A
SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING 45 MPH ISN`T
THERE YET DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD. NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD ALSO ALSO BE NOTED THAT STRONG CONVERGENT
FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH WITHIN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS. THE ENTIRE THREAT PERIOD FOR ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE NO
LONGER THAN ABOUT 90 MINUTES.
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30
KTS TO THE SURFACE THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY. CAA WILL QUICKLY
EASE, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BY AFTERNOON, FORCING WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE
THERMAL MIXING PROCESS AND MIXING EFFICIENCY WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
DECREASE. THUS, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND GUSTS IS EXPETED
THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON. ALSO, A MODEST LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE WILL
ENHANCE EXISTING CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ENGULF THE ENTIRE
CWA AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERS RAIN SHOWERS, PERHAPS
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES COULD SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO THE SURFACE WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS NORTH OF PONTIAC, BUT THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION.
NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE BY THIS TIME, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. STRATUS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MODEST RECOVERY IN THE THERMAL FIELD BY THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
NEAR 50 UNDER DECREASING CLOUDS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SATURDAY. INTERMODEL CONTINUITY HAS INCREASED WITH THIS
FEATURE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS FOR THE TRI-CITIES SATURDAY /CHANCE
ELSEWHERE/ AND LIKELY AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO REAL COLD AIR OF
NOTE WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...AND UPPER HEIGHT RISES
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS KEEPING THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH WEST CONUS/RIDGE EAST
CONUS PATTERN...KEEPING US VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
MARINE...
PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST GALES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
HOURS OF DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE WATERS. GUSTS
TO STRONG GALES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. GALES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 10
FEET OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 FEET. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MINIMIZE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ422.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443-464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
742 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.AVIATION...
MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOCAL AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS HOVERING IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE A LOCALIZED GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS. PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOW CARRYING A MORE CHAOTIC CEILING GIVEN CONTINUED
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HIGHER DEGREE OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. STRONG COLD FRONT ON SCHEDULE TO
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS 05Z-07Z TONIGHT. WINDOW FOR A
PERIOD OF STRONGER WSW GUSTS INTO THE 35 KNOT RANGE WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL AUGMENTED BY
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS ALIGNED ALONG THIS FRONT. UPSTREAM
EVIDENCE THAT THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL CARRY A MORE LIMITED
DURATION...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A TEMPO. ANOTHER PEAK IN
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS BETTER MIXING ENSUES FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD...AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGH END GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.
FOR DTW...WELL MIXED SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY CONDITIONS AND MORE VARIABLE CEILING HEIGHTS /2000 TO 4000 FT/
THROUGH 05Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN THE 05Z-06Z WINDOW...BEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS FRONT /05Z-08Z/. A RENEWED PEAK IN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THURSDAY.
* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD AROUND 250 DEGREES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
LOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A
MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDER EXISTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH INTO SE MI IS HELPING DECREASE THE COVERAGE
OF THE STEADY RAINS THAT PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WEALTH OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN DZ OVER MOST OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS OF ACTUAL SHOWERS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE THETA E PLUME LIFTS NE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AROUND 05-09Z. MODELS SHOW LOW CAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES...AND SKINNY CAPE AT THAT LOCATED FROM THE SFC UP TO
AROUND 8KFT. IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK CAPE...SHOWALTER INDEX BRIEFLY
DIP NEGATIVE AND COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LL LAPSE RATES. 850MB/500MB
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -5C/-30C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM...06Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH REGARD TO TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN
THINKING. THIS DYNAMICALLY INTENSE FEATURE WILL RACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RAW GUIDANCE CANNOT CAPTURE
WIND GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO THE FRONT`S COMPACT HORIZONTAL SCALE.
HOWEVER, ARW/NMM PROGS SHOW HINTS AT SUSTAINED 20+KTS WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE FINALLY CONFIRMING PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH SIMULATED WIND GUST SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
WITH FROPA. THIS IS SUPPORTED METEOROLOGICALLY BY INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE NOSE OF THE FRONT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL STRONG POSITIVE OMEGA
VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FORCINGS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB
WITHIN A WIND FIELD THAT DOES TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS JUST
BENEATH THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THUS, WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING FROPA, AND MAY NECESSITATE A
SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING 45 MPH ISN`T
THERE YET DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD. NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD ALSO ALSO BE NOTED THAT STRONG CONVERGENT
FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH WITHIN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS. THE ENTIRE THREAT PERIOD FOR ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE NO
LONGER THAN ABOUT 90 MINUTES.
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30
KTS TO THE SURFACE THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY. CAA WILL QUICKLY
EASE, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BY AFTERNOON, FORCING WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE
THERMAL MIXING PROCESS AND MIXING EFFICIENCY WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
DECREASE. THUS, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND GUSTS IS EXPETED
THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON. ALSO, A MODEST LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE WILL
ENHANCE EXISTING CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ENGULF THE ENTIRE
CWA AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERS RAIN SHOWERS, PERHAPS
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES COULD SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO THE SURFACE WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS NORTH OF PONTIAC, BUT THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION.
NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE BY THIS TIME, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. STRATUS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MODEST RECOVERY IN THE THERMAL FIELD BY THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
NEAR 50 UNDER DECREASING CLOUDS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SATURDAY. INTERMODEL CONTINUITY HAS INCREASED WITH THIS
FEATURE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS FOR THE TRI-CITIES SATURDAY /CHANCE
ELSEWHERE/ AND LIKELY AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO REAL COLD AIR OF
NOTE WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...AND UPPER HEIGHT RISES
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS KEEPING THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH WEST CONUS/RIDGE EAST
CONUS PATTERN...KEEPING US VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
MARINE...
PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST GALES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
HOURS OF DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE WATERS. GUSTS
TO STRONG GALES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. GALES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 10
FEET OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 FEET. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MINIMIZE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ422.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443-464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/MANITOBA INTO THE WRN AND SCNTRL PLAINS
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE HAS BUILT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO/WRN
QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/SCNTRL PLAINS WHICH LED TO SOME
UPSLOPE STRATUS/FOG AT KSAW AND KCMX EARLIER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ERN UPR
MI.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING TOWARD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER SRN SASK DROPS INTO SRN MANITOBA
AND NORTH DAKOTA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SE WI BY 12Z
WED. INCREASING SSE 800-700 MB FLOW OF 35-50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0
INCH) AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONV WILL
ALLOW RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WED. IN TURN...AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...SFC LOW OF 995-1000MB OVER SRN WI WED MORNING
WILL DEEPEN NEAR 985 MB OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED. DIMINISHING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC-850 MB LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SPREADS IN FM THE S-SE IN WAKE OF
INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING. AS RAIN
DIMINISHES FROM SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON STRATUS WILL LOWER
AND FOG MAY FORM ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
N UPPER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW SET UP OVER S MN.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL MAINLY STAY AS RAIN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE WARMER TREND OF 850MB TEMPS
CONTINUES...STARTING OUT AROUND 0C OVER THE FAR W AT 00Z THURSDAY
AND BOTTOMING OUT BY 12Z THURSDAY IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE WITH SFC
TEMPS NEAR OR STILL ABOVE FREEZING. COOLER AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -
3 TO -5C SLIDE IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING INWILL BE AS THE
BULK OF PRECIP PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
ALONG WITH THE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. WITH RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE SFC LOW
THURSDAY...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINUSLA AND E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO THE TERRAIN AND THE
FACT THAT IT/S CLOSER TO THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISESMOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 900MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS...EXPECT NEAR SFC WINDS
OF 30-40KTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH W TO E THURSDAY EVENING.
LOOK FOR THE SFC RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MN AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
MO AND THE TN VALLEY AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12-18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPORARY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING.
JUST HOW FAST WAA PRECIP GETS INTO THE CWA IS IN QUESTION SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER TO BRING BACK PRECIP AT LEAST WITH THE
27/00Z RUN INDICATING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEARING IN THE BROAD TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. EITHER
WAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 0-6C AND SFC TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...EXPECT LIQUID PRECIP INSTEAD OF FROZEN. THE SFC LOW
HANGING OUT OVER W CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER THE N PLAINS MONDAY AS SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF N
AMERICA. EXPECT THE S LOW TO EJECT NE INTO ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL ARRIVAL OF -RA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
SYSTEM LIFTING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DROP
TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TO LIFR BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WITH SYSTEM LEADS TO
FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRENGTHING LOW
LIFTING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO
JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE
15-25KT RANGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30KT LATE
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE FLOW. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED NIGHT
THRU THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO NEAR 45KT OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE BY THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/MANITOBA INTO THE WRN AND SCNTRL PLAINS
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE HAS BUILT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO/WRN
QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/SCNTRL PLAINS WHICH LED TO SOME
UPSLOPE STRATUS/FOG AT KSAW AND KCMX EARLIER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ERN UPR
MI.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING TOWARD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER SRN SASK DROPS INTO SRN MANITOBA
AND NORTH DAKOTA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SE WI BY 12Z
WED. INCREASING SSE 800-700 MB FLOW OF 35-50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0
INCH) AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONV WILL
ALLOW RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WED. IN TURN...AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...SFC LOW OF 995-1000MB OVER SRN WI WED MORNING
WILL DEEPEN NEAR 985 MB OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED. DIMINISHING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC-850 MB LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SPREADS IN FM THE S-SE IN WAKE OF
INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING. AS RAIN
DIMINISHES FROM SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON STRATUS WILL LOWER
AND FOG MAY FORM ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTS FROM PHASING OF MANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS TROUGH DEEPENS
SFC LOW 995-1000MB DEVELOPS OVER IA/IL/SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z ON WED.
MOIST ADVECTION OF PWATS OVER 1 INCH AHEAD OF H85 TROUGH AND SFC LOW
ALONG WITH H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHOULD SPREAD THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT 290-300K/H9-H65 ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ASSIST TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FADES IN THE MID-LATE AFTN AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
SPREADS NORTH OVER CWA IN WAKE OF INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EXPECT RAIN TO START TO DIMINISH.
MID CONUS TROUGH CLOSES OFF SHARPLY INTO THURSDAY AS INITIAL CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH MOVING EAST PHASES WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING SSE FM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING FM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEEPENS TO NEAR 983-985MB AS IT REACHES
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STAYS SIMILAR
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO FAR EAST LK SUPERIOR OR JUST EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. TREND IS SLOWER IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IN
LIFTING THE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. MAIN RESULT IS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LINGERING OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TROWAL WORKING ACROSS WEST TO EAST AS SEEN IN THETA-E
FIELDS WITH HEIGHT /ESPECIALLY H7-H6/ AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. ALSO SEE THE SLOWER TREND SHOW UP WITH WARMER AIR IN
THE SFC-H85 LAYER ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
SUPERIOR. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN CWA. H85
TEMPS LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND -2C AT THE WARMEST AND -5C AT THE
COOLEST BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT
IWD INDICATE EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -2C OR -3C/GOOD ENOUGH FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C AND PLENTY OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE/...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000
FT AGL WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WILL BE TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN WHERE SNOW IS MAIN PYPE
AND WHERE THERE WILL BE MIX OR JUST RAIN. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT
LINE WILL STAY MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN CWA. TRENDED SNOW
BACK OVER WESTERN INTERIOR TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALL CWA. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SOLID 40-45 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER
THOUGH SLOWER TREND WITH SFC LOW AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMPLICATE HOW QUICKLY THE STRONG WINDS MIX TO SFC.
GOOD PORTION OF THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO SFC AS GUSTS. GALES LOOK
CERTAIN OVER LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON ADJACENT SHORELINES OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE COPPER HARBOR AND
MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS/FAR NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. WINDS DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C OR -7C. SOUNDINGS AT END
OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND H85 AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. KEPT LOW CHANCES IN FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...BUT DRY AIR BLO CLOUD
BASE AND FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING
TREND TO LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW
COLD LAYER. MID CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WHICH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS NOW JOINED BY
ECMWF IN SHOWING SWATH OF RAIN SPREADING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS MORE OVER CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...SO LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE TOO HIGH AMOUNTS OVER UPR MICHIGAN /AROUND 0.10 INCH
BUT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH/. HALLOWEEN 2014 HAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN SO AT LEAST WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT ANYTHING THAT COLD.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. WARMING
TREND STILL EXPECTED INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN AS IT STANDS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL ARRIVAL OF -RA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
SYSTEM LIFTING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DROP
TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TO LIFR BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WITH SYSTEM LEADS TO
FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRENGTHING LOW
LIFTING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO
JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE
15-25KT RANGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30KT LATE
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE FLOW. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED NIGHT
THRU THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO NEAR 45KT OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE BY THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
351 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
HIGH CONTINUITY WITHIN THE NWP EXISTS THAT A COMPLEX WAVE MERGER
EVENT WILL COMMENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
FIRST PHASE OF THE WAVE MERGER/INTERACTION IS THE RAPID SURGE IN
REMNANT HURRICANE PATRICIA MOISTURE DUE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. BULK ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT A WAVE SEPARATION
WILL EXIST BETWEEN THIS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE/PV ANOMALY AND THE MORE
DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALBERTA.
THERE IS IMPORTANCE IN THIS INFORMATION ON WAVE SEPARATION AS IT
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SLUG OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
PROGRESSING AND NOT STALL OUT.
IF THERE HAS BEEN ONE NOTABLE TREND IT HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FEED
WILL MAINTAIN A 12 KFT LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY STRAY
CHANCES AT THE FRONT END/EARLY EVENING. MUCH OF THE DETERMINISTIC
SUITE AND CAMS INCLUDING SOME SUPPORT FROM HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY
SUPPORTS HOLDING OFF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF M 59 UNTIL 4Z THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...THE NARRATIVE BECOMES INCREASING WIDESPREAD
RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY EFFICIENT
RESPONSE OF INCREASING MIDLEVEL SHEARING DEFORMATION THAT WILL FEAST
ON THE AMOUNT OF REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...EFFECTIVLY WRINGING OUT
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE ARE TWO SURGES OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES...THE FIRST LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL
AREAS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06-09Z...THE SECOND ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA (WAYNE/MONROE/MACOMB/ST CLAIR/OAKLAND
COUNTIES) BETWEEN 09-12Z. AGAIN...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12 Z OF .70 TO .80 OF AN INCH. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SECOND SURGE...HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE IRISH HILLS/GLACIAL TERRAIN. OVERALL...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER REMAINS LOW...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STABLE ONE THROUGH 10 KFT AGL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NWP IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN MYRIAD MOVING PARTS INVOLVED IN A
DYNAMIC SCENARIO THAT WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY,
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CARRYOVER OF TONIGHT`S
WEATHER. VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, BUT IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST ALONG WITH THE REST OF
THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING. THE RAIN WILL MAINTAIN ITS
OVERNIGHT CHARACTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY WIND
DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12-15Z.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. WATER VAPOR REVEALS A PLETHORA OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FROM MONTANA TO TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH, A WELL-
DEFINED PV RIBBON IS DIVING SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES EAST WED
MORNING, SOME CONSOLIDATION OF SAID DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR, PARTICULARLY ABOVE 500MB. THE FLOW AROUND THE ASSOCIATED
CONSOLIDATED H4-H3 PV ANOMALY WILL DRAW IN PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL SPEND THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITHIN A DRY SLOT, ALBEIT NOT A CLASSIC ONE, AS A RESULT. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ALONG THE CONVERGENT LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ARE A
POSSIBILITY, AND THESE COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. THIS THREAT, IF IT DEVELOPS, WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT AND FRONTAL-TYPE FORCING
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST. SEEING AS HOW THE DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, ELEVATED COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE
DURING PEAK HEATING WILL LEND ITSELF AT LEAST TO SOME AFTERNOON
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IF NOT LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS GIVEN SUFFICIENT
LINGERING MOISTURE DEPTH.
BY THIS TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY DYNAMIC HIGH-LATITUDE WAVE
WILL BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION AND WILL BE
SLAMMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL TAKE ON
AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT, FORCING THE UPPER JET TO TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS AT 21Z WED TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES 12Z THURS. ELEVATED FGEN PROCESSES WILL AID THE
PRODUCTION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION AS THIS OCCURS,
AND THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COLD FRONT WILL UNDERGO STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS THE JET-FRONT COUPLET MATURES. ALTHOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT IS NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE AS
FAR AS AUTUMN COLD FRONTS GO, STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AT ALL LEVELS
WILL STILL CAUSE IT TO PACK A PUNCH AS IT RACES WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS
SE MICHIGAN 06-09Z.
COLD FROPA WILL REPRESENT THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER END WINDS.
FIRST, THERE IS THE FRONT ITSELF. WHILE NOT EXHIBITING CLASSIC
DENSITY CURRENT CHARACTERISTICS, INSTABILITY IN THE NOSE OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH VIGOROUS
MIXING AND BRIEF HIT OF WIND GUSTS AROUND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN
FACT, NAM12 DEPICTIONS OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON THE 284K
SURFACE SUGGEST 38-44KTS IS ACHIEVABLE. THIS REPRESENTS A WINDOW FOR
A POTENTIAL SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY BETWEEN ABOUT 05Z-10Z THURSDAY
MORNING. SECOND, DEEP AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING WILL CAUSE A LINE
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LIKEWISE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN
SIMILARLY STRONG WINDS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL FORCE STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BUT A LACK OF ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL REALLY LIMIT POTENTIAL IN THIS OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SETUP.
FURTHER, THE SLOWLY DEEPENING NATURE OF THE NOW-DISTANT SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE JUST A MINIMAL ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WIND
GUSTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT, AFTER AN INITIAL POP OF WINDS WITH
FROPA, POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON THURSDAY TOP OUT BELOW THE 38KT/45MPH
WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION,
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WILL BE MUTED. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE WITH MID 40S ALONG THE GLACIAL RIDGE AND UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE.
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AS THE STRONG LOW PULLS AWAY SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT LATE FALL DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS AROUND 50. PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THANKS TO A STRONG PACIFIC JET COMING ASHORE. THIS FLOW
WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...WITH 12Z SUITE
CONTINUING TO ZIP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US. RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FORMER FEATURE AND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE
LOCALLY SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SOUTHWEST US CUTOFF EJECTS...BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR
NOW WILL BE REFINED IN THE FUTURE. A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WE TURN THE PAGE TO NOVEMBER DUE TO LACK OF
COLD AIR WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CANADA BRINGING A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST GALES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THIS GALE EVENT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING GALES...AND LOCALLY STRONG GALES...TO
AREA WATERS. FOR AREAS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE GALES
TONIGHT....GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS SECOND GALE EVENT.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AROUND 8 TO 11 FEET FOR BOTH
EVENTS. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED AREAS...MAINLY THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
HIGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN AXIS OF THE DEEP MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECASTED TO LIFT DIRECTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TERMINALS...AFFECTING THE SITES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06-15Z. DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BY AN
HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE TIMING OFFERED BY THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS
LOOK GOOD FOR KPTK SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A HIGH LIKLIHOOD FOR IFR
CONDITIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS
ARE FORECASTED TO PERSIST IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF FORECAST.
FOR DTW...EASTERLY WIND OF 090-120 WIND AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE TIME REFINEMENT IN
CIG/PRECIPITATION TIMING WAS NEEDED THIS ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD FROM 140 BY TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 200 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ421-422.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443-
464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LCZ460.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ444.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
223 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WAS
BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A THE
SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ASSOCIAED WITH WAA AND 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF A SFC FRONT THROUGH SRN MN. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MI WHERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG HAD ALSO DEVELOPED.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
LIGHT PCPN FROM N CNTRL MN INTO NW WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NNE WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WEST BEFORE 15Z.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR FROM 925-850 MB MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUR
THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN. NEVERTHELESS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD IA AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER CNTRL SASK
DROP INTO SRN MANITOBA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SRN
WI. INCREASING SRLY 80-700 MB FLOW TO 40-50 KNOTS WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0 INCH) WITH RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA LATE...MAINLY BTWN 09Z-12Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTS FROM PHASING OF MANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS TROUGH DEEPENS
SFC LOW 995-1000MB DEVELOPS OVER IA/IL/SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z ON WED.
MOIST ADVECTION OF PWATS OVER 1 INCH AHEAD OF H85 TROUGH AND SFC LOW
ALONG WITH H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHOULD SPREAD THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT 290-300K/H9-H65 ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ASSIST TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FADES IN THE MID-LATE AFTN AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
SPREADS NORTH OVER CWA IN WAKE OF INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EXPECT RAIN TO START TO DIMINISH.
MID CONUS TROUGH CLOSES OFF SHARPLY INTO THURSDAY AS INITIAL CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH MOVING EAST PHASES WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING SSE FM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING FM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEEPENS TO NEAR 983-985MB AS IT REACHES
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STAYS SIMILAR
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO FAR EAST LK SUPERIOR OR JUST EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. TREND IS SLOWER IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IN
LIFTING THE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. MAIN RESULT IS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LINGERING OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TROWAL WORKING ACROSS WEST TO EAST AS SEEN IN THETA-E
FIELDS WITH HEIGHT /ESPECIALLY H7-H6/ AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. ALSO SEE THE SLOWER TREND SHOW UP WITH WARMER AIR IN
THE SFC-H85 LAYER ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
SUPERIOR. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN CWA. H85
TEMPS LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND -2C AT THE WARMEST AND -5C AT THE
COOLEST BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT
IWD INDICATE EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -2C OR -3C/GOOD ENOUGH FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C AND PLENTY OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE/...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000
FT AGL WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WILL BE TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN WHERE SNOW IS MAIN PYPE
AND WHERE THERE WILL BE MIX OR JUST RAIN. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT
LINE WILL STAY MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN CWA. TRENDED SNOW
BACK OVER WESTERN INTERIOR TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALL CWA. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SOLID 40-45 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER
THOUGH SLOWER TREND WITH SFC LOW AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMPLICATE HOW QUICKLY THE STRONG WINDS MIX TO SFC.
GOOD PORTION OF THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO SFC AS GUSTS. GALES LOOK
CERTAIN OVER LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON ADJACENT SHORELINES OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE COPPER HARBOR AND
MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS/FAR NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. WINDS DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C OR -7C. SOUNDINGS AT END
OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND H85 AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. KEPT LOW CHANCES IN FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...BUT DRY AIR BLO CLOUD
BASE AND FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING
TREND TO LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW
COLD LAYER. MID CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WHICH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS NOW JOINED BY
ECMWF IN SHOWING SWATH OF RAIN SPREADING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS MORE OVER CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...SO LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE TOO HIGH AMOUNTS OVER UPR MICHIGAN /AROUND 0.10 INCH
BUT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH/. HALLOWEEN 2014 HAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN SO AT LEAST WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT ANYTHING THAT COLD.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. WARMING
TREND STILL EXPECTED INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN AS IT STANDS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL ARRIVAL OF -RA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
SYSTEM LIFTING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DROP
TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TO LIFR BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WITH SYSTEM LEADS TO
FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHING LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTN/NIGHT ON
ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TO 20-30KT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE FLOW. WINDS WILL
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED. NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW
LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU
NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...NONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WAS
BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A THE
SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ASSOCIAED WITH WAA AND 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF A SFC FRONT THROUGH SRN MN. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MI WHERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG HAD ALSO DEVELOPED.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
LIGHT PCPN FROM N CNTRL MN INTO NW WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NNE WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WEST BEFORE 15Z.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR FROM 925-850 MB MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUR
THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN. NEVERTHELESS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD IA AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER CNTRL SASK
DROP INTO SRN MANITOBA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SRN
WI. INCREASING SRLY 80-700 MB FLOW TO 40-50 KNOTS WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0 INCH) WITH RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA LATE...MAINLY BTWN 09Z-12Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTS FROM PHASING OF MANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS TROUGH DEEPENS
SFC LOW 995-1000MB DEVELOPS OVER IA/IL/SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z ON WED.
MOIST ADVECTION OF PWATS OVER 1 INCH AHEAD OF H85 TROUGH AND SFC LOW
ALONG WITH H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHOULD SPREAD THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT 290-300K/H9-H65 ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ASSIST TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FADES IN THE MID-LATE AFTN AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
SPREADS NORTH OVER CWA IN WAKE OF INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EXPECT RAIN TO START TO DIMINISH.
MID CONUS TROUGH CLOSES OFF SHARPLY INTO THURSDAY AS INITIAL CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH MOVING EAST PHASES WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING SSE FM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING FM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEEPENS TO NEAR 983-985MB AS IT REACHES
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STAYS SIMILAR
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO FAR EAST LK SUPERIOR OR JUST EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. TREND IS SLOWER IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IN
LIFTING THE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. MAIN RESULT IS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LINGERING OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TROWAL WORKING ACROSS WEST TO EAST AS SEEN IN THETA-E
FIELDS WITH HEIGHT /ESPECIALLY H7-H6/ AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. ALSO SEE THE SLOWER TREND SHOW UP WITH WARMER AIR IN
THE SFC-H85 LAYER ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
SUPERIOR. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN CWA. H85
TEMPS LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND -2C AT THE WARMEST AND -5C AT THE
COOLEST BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT
IWD INDICATE EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -2C OR -3C/GOOD ENOUGH FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C AND PLENTY OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE/...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000
FT AGL WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WILL BE TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN WHERE SNOW IS MAIN PYPE
AND WHERE THERE WILL BE MIX OR JUST RAIN. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT
LINE WILL STAY MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN CWA. TRENDED SNOW
BACK OVER WESTERN INTERIOR TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALL CWA. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SOLID 40-45 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER
THOUGH SLOWER TREND WITH SFC LOW AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMPLICATE HOW QUICKLY THE STRONG WINDS MIX TO SFC.
GOOD PORTION OF THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO SFC AS GUSTS. GALES LOOK
CERTAIN OVER LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON ADJACENT SHORELINES OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE COPPER HARBOR AND
MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS/FAR NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. WINDS DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C OR -7C. SOUNDINGS AT END
OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND H85 AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. KEPT LOW CHANCES IN FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...BUT DRY AIR BLO CLOUD
BASE AND FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING
TREND TO LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW
COLD LAYER. MID CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WHICH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS NOW JOINED BY
ECMWF IN SHOWING SWATH OF RAIN SPREADING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS MORE OVER CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...SO LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE TOO HIGH AMOUNTS OVER UPR MICHIGAN /AROUND 0.10 INCH
BUT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH/. HALLOWEEN 2014 HAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN SO AT LEAST WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT ANYTHING THAT COLD.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. WARMING
TREND STILL EXPECTED INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN AS IT STANDS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
INCREASING SE FLOW WILL GRADUALY DRAW SOMEHWAT DRIER AIR INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. WITH THE ONSET OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AT SAW AND TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT IWD AND CMX. MORE
CLOUDS AND SOME -RA WL ARRIVE FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 06Z. CIGS SHOULD THEN DROP TO MVFR AT
IWD AND CMX AND TO IFR AND SAW WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHING LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTN/NIGHT ON
ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TO 20-30KT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE FLOW. WINDS WILL
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED. NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW
LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU
NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...- NONE -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WAS
BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A THE
SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ASSOCIAED WITH WAA AND 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF A SFC FRONT THROUGH SRN MN. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MI WHERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG HAD ALSO DEVELOPED.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
LIGHT PCPN FROM N CNTRL MN INTO NW WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NNE WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WEST BEFORE 15Z.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR FROM 925-850 MB MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUR
THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN. NEVERTHELESS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD IA AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER CNTRL SASK
DROP INTO SRN MANITOBA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SRN
WI. INCREASING SRLY 80-700 MB FLOW TO 40-50 KNOTS WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0 INCH) WITH RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA LATE...MAINLY BTWN 09Z-12Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTS FROM PHASING OF MANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS TROUGH DEEPENS
SFC LOW 995-1000MB DEVELOPS OVER IA/IL/SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z ON WED.
MOIST ADVECTION OF PWATS OVER 1 INCH AHEAD OF H85 TROUGH AND SFC LOW
ALONG WITH H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHOULD SPREAD THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT 290-300K/H9-H65 ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ASSIST TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FADES IN THE MID-LATE AFTN AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
SPREADS NORTH OVER CWA IN WAKE OF INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EXPECT RAIN TO START TO DIMINISH.
MID CONUS TROUGH CLOSES OFF SHARPLY INTO THURSDAY AS INITIAL CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH MOVING EAST PHASES WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING SSE FM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING FM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEEPENS TO NEAR 983-985MB AS IT REACHES
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STAYS SIMILAR
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO FAR EAST LK SUPERIOR OR JUST EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. TREND IS SLOWER IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IN
LIFTING THE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. MAIN RESULT IS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LINGERING OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TROWAL WORKING ACROSS WEST TO EAST AS SEEN IN THETA-E
FIELDS WITH HEIGHT /ESPECIALLY H7-H6/ AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. ALSO SEE THE SLOWER TREND SHOW UP WITH WARMER AIR IN
THE SFC-H85 LAYER ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
SUPERIOR. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN CWA. H85
TEMPS LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND -2C AT THE WARMEST AND -5C AT THE
COOLEST BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT
IWD INDICATE EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -2C OR -3C/GOOD ENOUGH FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C AND PLENTY OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE/...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000
FT AGL WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WILL BE TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN WHERE SNOW IS MAIN PYPE
AND WHERE THERE WILL BE MIX OR JUST RAIN. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT
LINE WILL STAY MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN CWA. TRENDED SNOW
BACK OVER WESTERN INTERIOR TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALL CWA. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SOLID 40-45 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER
THOUGH SLOWER TREND WITH SFC LOW AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMPLICATE HOW QUICKLY THE STRONG WINDS MIX TO SFC.
GOOD PORTION OF THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO SFC AS GUSTS. GALES LOOK
CERTAIN OVER LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON ADJACENT SHORELINES OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE COPPER HARBOR AND
MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS/FAR NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. WINDS DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C OR -7C. SOUNDINGS AT END
OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND H85 AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. KEPT LOW CHANCES IN FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...BUT DRY AIR BLO CLOUD
BASE AND FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING
TREND TO LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW
COLD LAYER. MID CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WHICH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS NOW JOINED BY
ECMWF IN SHOWING SWATH OF RAIN SPREADING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS MORE OVER CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...SO LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE TOO HIGH AMOUNTS OVER UPR MICHIGAN /AROUND 0.10 INCH
BUT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH/. HALLOWEEN 2014 HAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN SO AT LEAST WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT ANYTHING THAT COLD.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. WARMING
TREND STILL EXPECTED INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN AS IT STANDS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WITH A LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW DVLPG OFF LK MI AND ADVECTING RA
MOISTENED AIR INTO SAW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...
EXPECT CONDITIONS THERE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS
FLOW WL TAP SOME DRIER AIR NEAR GRB LATER...SO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE. AS THE SSE WIND SLOWLY INCREASES...INCRSG
DOWNSLOPE WRMG AT IWD SHOULD BREAK UP THE LO CLD CIG PRESENT THERE
AND BRING A RETURN OF VFR WX. ALTHOUGH CMX IS DOMINATED BY LLVL DRY
AIR ATTM WITH A LGT NE WIND...SOME LO CLDS/FOG MAY IMPACT THAT SITE
FOR A TIME AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE ESE. AS THE S WIND AHEAD OF
DVLPG LO PRES TO THE W TAPS THE DRIER LLVL AIR TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY LINGERNIG LO CLDS WL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES DESPITE PLENTY OF HIER CLDS. MORE CLDS AND SOME -RA WL
ARRIVE FM THE SW TNGT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHING LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTN/NIGHT ON
ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TO 20-30KT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE FLOW. WINDS WILL
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED. NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW
LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU
NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...- NONE -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
519 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WAS
BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A THE
SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE REGION BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS. A BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ASSOCIAED WITH WAA AND 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF A SFC FRONT THROUGH SRN MN. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MI WHERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG HAD ALSO DEVELOPED.
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
LIGHT PCPN FROM N CNTRL MN INTO NW WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NNE WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WEST BEFORE 15Z.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR FROM 925-850 MB MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUR
THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN. NEVERTHELESS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD IA AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER CNTRL SASK
DROP INTO SRN MANITOBA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SRN
WI. INCREASING SRLY 80-700 MB FLOW TO 40-50 KNOTS WILL DRAW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0 INCH) WITH RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA LATE...MAINLY BTWN 09Z-12Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTS FROM PHASING OF MANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS TROUGH DEEPENS
SFC LOW 995-1000MB DEVELOPS OVER IA/IL/SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z ON WED.
MOIST ADVECTION OF PWATS OVER 1 INCH AHEAD OF H85 TROUGH AND SFC LOW
ALONG WITH H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHOULD SPREAD THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT 290-300K/H9-H65 ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ASSIST TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FADES IN THE MID-LATE AFTN AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
SPREADS NORTH OVER CWA IN WAKE OF INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EXPECT RAIN TO START TO DIMINISH.
MID CONUS TROUGH CLOSES OFF SHARPLY INTO THURSDAY AS INITIAL CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH MOVING EAST PHASES WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING SSE FM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING FM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEEPENS TO NEAR 983-985MB AS IT REACHES
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STAYS SIMILAR
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO FAR EAST LK SUPERIOR OR JUST EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. TREND IS SLOWER IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IN
LIFTING THE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. MAIN RESULT IS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LINGERING OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TROWAL WORKING ACROSS WEST TO EAST AS SEEN IN THETA-E
FIELDS WITH HEIGHT /ESPECIALLY H7-H6/ AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. ALSO SEE THE SLOWER TREND SHOW UP WITH WARMER AIR IN
THE SFC-H85 LAYER ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
SUPERIOR. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN CWA. H85
TEMPS LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND -2C AT THE WARMEST AND -5C AT THE
COOLEST BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT
IWD INDICATE EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -2C OR -3C/GOOD ENOUGH FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C AND PLENTY OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE/...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000
FT AGL WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WILL BE TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN WHERE SNOW IS MAIN PYPE
AND WHERE THERE WILL BE MIX OR JUST RAIN. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT
LINE WILL STAY MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN CWA. TRENDED SNOW
BACK OVER WESTERN INTERIOR TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALL CWA. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SOLID 40-45 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER
THOUGH SLOWER TREND WITH SFC LOW AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMPLICATE HOW QUICKLY THE STRONG WINDS MIX TO SFC.
GOOD PORTION OF THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO SFC AS GUSTS. GALES LOOK
CERTAIN OVER LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON ADJACENT SHORELINES OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE COPPER HARBOR AND
MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS/FAR NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. WINDS DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C OR -7C. SOUNDINGS AT END
OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND H85 AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. KEPT LOW CHANCES IN FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...BUT DRY AIR BLO CLOUD
BASE AND FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING
TREND TO LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW
COLD LAYER. MID CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WHICH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS NOW JOINED BY
ECMWF IN SHOWING SWATH OF RAIN SPREADING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS MORE OVER CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...SO LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE TOO HIGH AMOUNTS OVER UPR MICHIGAN /AROUND 0.10 INCH
BUT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH/. HALLOWEEN 2014 HAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN SO AT LEAST WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT ANYTHING THAT COLD.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. WARMING
TREND STILL EXPECTED INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN AS IT STANDS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WITH A LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW DVLPG OFF LK MI AND ADVECTING RA
MOISTENED AIR INTO SAW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...
EXPECT CONDITIONS THERE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS
FLOW WL TAP SOME DRIER AIR NEAR GRB LATER...SO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE. AS THE SSE WIND SLOWLY INCREASES...INCRSG
DOWNSLOPE WRMG AT IWD SHOULD BREAK UP THE LO CLD CIG PRESENT THERE
AND BRING A RETURN OF VFR WX. ALTHOUGH CMX IS DOMINATED BY LLVL DRY
AIR ATTM WITH A LGT NE WIND...SOME LO CLDS/FOG MAY IMPACT THAT SITE
FOR A TIME AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE ESE. AS THE S WIND AHEAD OF
DVLPG LO PRES TO THE W TAPS THE DRIER LLVL AIR TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY LINGERNIG LO CLDS WL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES DESPITE PLENTY OF HIER CLDS. MORE CLDS AND SOME -RA WL
ARRIVE FM THE SW TNGT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT WILL START THE FCST PERIOD TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST
UP TOWARD 20KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE
UPPER LAKES WED...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
WILL THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTN...
INCREASING FURTHER TO 20-30KT TUE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TUE
NIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE
FLOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUE NIGHT OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CARIBOU ISLAND/WHITEFISH POINT AREA. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED.
NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
512 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CANADA TROF ANCHORED BY A DEEP MID LEVEL
LOW CENTERED JUST N OF HUDSON BAY. WITHIN THE TROF...110KT UPPER JET
EXTENDS FROM NE MN TO NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...CORRESPONDING FGEN IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS...AND SHORTWAVE HAVE SUPPORTED SHRA FROM NW WI E ACROSS UPPER
MI TODAY...THOUGH SHRA HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF
THE U.P. OTHERWISE...IT`S BEEN A CLOUDY DAY. HOWEVER...RECENTLY MID
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW
LEADING TO SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT THERE. TEMPS ARE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT ARE NEARING 50F ON THE KEWEENAW
AND HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S IN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
WITH FORCING THAT HAS GENERATED THE SHRA TODAY BREAKING DOWN THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHRA AS MODELS INDICATE.
HOWEVER...ONGOING WAA AHEAD OF TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAY
WORK TO GENERATE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ALONG THE CURRENT PCPN
GENERATION ZONE THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NE AS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY
LOOPS ACROSS NW WI TO AROUND KDLH. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...LINGERED SOME SCHC POPS W INTO PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER
THRU THE EVENING.
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT SHIFTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS
TUE. AHEAD OF THE TROF...MODELS SHOW BETTER FOCUS OF WAA SHIFTING TO
THE NW OF UPPER MI. END RESULT WILL BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTS FROM PHASING OF MANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS TROUGH DEEPENS
SFC LOW 995-1000MB DEVELOPS OVER IA/IL/SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z ON WED.
MOIST ADVECTION OF PWATS OVER 1 INCH AHEAD OF H85 TROUGH AND SFC LOW
ALONG WITH H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHOULD SPREAD THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT 290-300K/H9-H65 ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ASSIST TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FADES IN THE MID-LATE AFTN AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
SPREADS NORTH OVER CWA IN WAKE OF INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
EXPECT RAIN TO START TO DIMINISH.
MID CONUS TROUGH CLOSES OFF SHARPLY INTO THURSDAY AS INITIAL CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH MOVING EAST PHASES WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING SSE FM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING FM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DEEPENS TO NEAR 983-985MB AS IT REACHES
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN STAYS SIMILAR
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO FAR EAST LK SUPERIOR OR JUST EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. TREND IS SLOWER IN MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IN
LIFTING THE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. MAIN RESULT IS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LINGERING OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH TROWAL WORKING ACROSS WEST TO EAST AS SEEN IN THETA-E
FIELDS WITH HEIGHT /ESPECIALLY H7-H6/ AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. ALSO SEE THE SLOWER TREND SHOW UP WITH WARMER AIR IN
THE SFC-H85 LAYER ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
SUPERIOR. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN CWA. H85
TEMPS LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND -2C AT THE WARMEST AND -5C AT THE
COOLEST BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT
IWD INDICATE EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -2C OR -3C/GOOD ENOUGH FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C AND PLENTY OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT/MOISTURE/...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000
FT AGL WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WILL BE TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN WHERE SNOW IS MAIN PYPE
AND WHERE THERE WILL BE MIX OR JUST RAIN. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT
LINE WILL STAY MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN CWA. TRENDED SNOW
BACK OVER WESTERN INTERIOR TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALL CWA. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SOLID 40-45 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER
THOUGH SLOWER TREND WITH SFC LOW AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMPLICATE HOW QUICKLY THE STRONG WINDS MIX TO SFC.
GOOD PORTION OF THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO SFC AS GUSTS. GALES LOOK
CERTAIN OVER LK SUPERIOR AND PROBABLY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON ADJACENT SHORELINES OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN. MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE COPPER HARBOR AND
MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS/FAR NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. WINDS DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C OR -7C. SOUNDINGS AT END
OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND H85 AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. KEPT LOW CHANCES IN FOR LAKE
EFFECT WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...BUT DRY AIR BLO CLOUD
BASE AND FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING
TREND TO LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW
COLD LAYER. MID CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WHICH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS NOW JOINED BY
ECMWF IN SHOWING SWATH OF RAIN SPREADING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS MORE OVER CNTRL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...SO LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE TOO HIGH AMOUNTS OVER UPR MICHIGAN /AROUND 0.10 INCH
BUT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH/. HALLOWEEN 2014 HAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF UPR
MICHIGAN SO AT LEAST WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT ANYTHING THAT COLD.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. WARMING
TREND STILL EXPECTED INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN AS IT STANDS NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WITH A LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW DVLPG OFF LK MI AND ADVECTING RA
MOISTENED AIR INTO SAW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...
EXPECT CONDITIONS THERE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS
FLOW WL TAP SOME DRIER AIR NEAR GRB LATER...SO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE. AS THE SSE WIND SLOWLY INCREASES...INCRSG
DOWNSLOPE WRMG AT IWD SHOULD BREAK UP THE LO CLD CIG PRESENT THERE
AND BRING A RETURN OF VFR WX. ALTHOUGH CMX IS DOMINATED BY LLVL DRY
AIR ATTM WITH A LGT NE WIND...SOME LO CLDS/FOG MAY IMPACT THAT SITE
FOR A TIME AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE ESE. AS THE S WIND AHEAD OF
DVLPG LO PRES TO THE W TAPS THE DRIER LLVL AIR TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY LINGERNIG LO CLDS WL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES DESPITE PLENTY OF HIER CLDS. MORE CLDS AND SOME -RA WL
ARRIVE FM THE SW TNGT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT WILL START THE FCST PERIOD TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST
UP TOWARD 20KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE
UPPER LAKES WED...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
WILL THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTN...
INCREASING FURTHER TO 20-30KT TUE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TUE
NIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE
FLOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUE NIGHT OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CARIBOU ISLAND/WHITEFISH POINT AREA. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED.
NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CANADA TROF ANCHORED BY A DEEP MID LEVEL
LOW CENTERED JUST N OF HUDSON BAY. WITHIN THE TROF...110KT UPPER JET
EXTENDS FROM NE MN TO NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...CORRESPONDING FGEN IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS...AND SHORTWAVE HAVE SUPPORTED SHRA FROM NW WI E ACROSS UPPER
MI TODAY...THOUGH SHRA HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF
THE U.P. OTHERWISE...IT`S BEEN A CLOUDY DAY. HOWEVER...RECENTLY MID
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW
LEADING TO SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT THERE. TEMPS ARE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT ARE NEARING 50F ON THE KEWEENAW
AND HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S IN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
WITH FORCING THAT HAS GENERATED THE SHRA TODAY BREAKING DOWN THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHRA AS MODELS INDICATE.
HOWEVER...ONGOING WAA AHEAD OF TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAY
WORK TO GENERATE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ALONG THE CURRENT PCPN
GENERATION ZONE THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NE AS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY
LOOPS ACROSS NW WI TO AROUND KDLH. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...LINGERED SOME SCHC POPS W INTO PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER
THRU THE EVENING.
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT SHIFTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS
TUE. AHEAD OF THE TROF...MODELS SHOW BETTER FOCUS OF WAA SHIFTING TO
THE NW OF UPPER MI. END RESULT WILL BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STEADY RAIN WEDNESDAY THEN
COOLER/BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN A STRONG SFC HIGH
PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER TO
NE...AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY /REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICA/. WILL
BE STARTING OUT WITH A STRONG S-SE PUSH OF AIR ON 850MB WINDS OF 25-
40KTS OVERHEAD. THESE 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE 40KTS
CWA WIDE OVERNIGHT. THE CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONVERGE AND STRETCH FROM MANITOBA TO IL/IN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEADY RAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP TOTALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
TOTAL AROUND OR OVER 0.5IN.
THE SFC LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO NEAR 990MB EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS UPPER MI/N LAKE MI...AND AROUND 980MB ACROSS N OR NE LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSES...EXPECT STRONGER W-NW WINDS TO PUSH IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND
3C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 0 TO -5C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
CONSENSUS...WITH THE COLD AIR IS TO HAVE IT PUSH MAINLY INLAND OR S
OF THE CWA. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OR AMOUNTS OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW...AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE HANDLING OF THE 500MB LOW AS IT SINKS IN BEHIND
THE SFC LOW. STILL...IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY WITH GALES
LIKELY CENTRAL AND E OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST S WITH THE LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI
AND S WI AT 06Z THURSDAY. BY CONTRAST...THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE LOW OVER UPPER MI. WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THIS FALLS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
NOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASES AT THE TAIL END OF THE MOISTURE AS IT
DEPARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS AND COOLER AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGING -4 TO -5C WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW IF SFC TEMPS WERE
JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FOR HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION FRIDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR E FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS WE RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND NEARING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W AND CENTRAL CANADA. WILL BE HARD TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /WITH THE
BEST CHANCE MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE NEARBY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WITH A LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW DVLPG OFF LK MI AND ADVECTING RA
MOISTENED AIR INTO SAW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...
EXPECT CONDITIONS THERE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS
FLOW WL TAP SOME DRIER AIR NEAR GRB LATER...SO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE. AS THE SSE WIND SLOWLY INCREASES...INCRSG
DOWNSLOPE WRMG AT IWD SHOULD BREAK UP THE LO CLD CIG PRESENT THERE
AND BRING A RETURN OF VFR WX. ALTHOUGH CMX IS DOMINATED BY LLVL DRY
AIR ATTM WITH A LGT NE WIND...SOME LO CLDS/FOG MAY IMPACT THAT SITE
FOR A TIME AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE ESE. AS THE S WIND AHEAD OF
DVLPG LO PRES TO THE W TAPS THE DRIER LLVL AIR TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY LINGERNIG LO CLDS WL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES DESPITE PLENTY OF HIER CLDS. MORE CLDS AND SOME -RA WL
ARRIVE FM THE SW TNGT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT WILL START THE FCST PERIOD TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST
UP TOWARD 20KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE
UPPER LAKES WED...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
WILL THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTN...
INCREASING FURTHER TO 20-30KT TUE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TUE
NIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE
FLOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUE NIGHT OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CARIBOU ISLAND/WHITEFISH POINT AREA. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED.
NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND UP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING PASSED JUST E OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA AND A TRAILING SECONDARY TROF AXIS ROTATING THRU NRN MN.
THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN/SNOW OVER MAINLY NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA WILL STEADILY SHIFT EWD THRU THE REST OF THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE PRECIPITATION AS
MORE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SECONDARY TRAILING TROF. THIS TROF WILL SLOWLY SWING THRU
CENTRAL-ERN MN INTO WRN WI THIS EVE AND EARLY MORNING THU...
DRAGGING ANOTHER DEEP SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. THE RESIDUAL
COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL SPELL ANOTHER MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE HOURS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION...AS SEEN OVER
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...GROUND TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY ACCUMULATION ON PAVED
SURFACES WHILE GRASSY AND UNPAVED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS THE UPR LVL TROF SWINGS THRU AND THE SFC LOW
ROTATES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WARMER AIR FROM THE NRN BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL SWING INTO SRN-CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THU MORNING BEFORE ENDING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...THUS MAKING ANY SUNSHINE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE THRU THU AS
CURRENT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY EARLY ON THIS EVE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY RISE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROF. HIGHS THU WILL THEN BE
VERY SIMILAR TO THE HIGHS OF TODAY...IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
WE/LL ALREADY BE WORKING OUT OF OUR BRIEF TASTE OF WINTER BY
THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND LARGE
SCALE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
WE/LL SEE HEIGHTS RISE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THAT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK... SO THINGS WILL STAY MILD AND FAIRLY
QUIET. THINGS LOOK DRY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WARM
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A NORTHERN WAVE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE SHOULD SEE ANY PCPN END BY SATURDAY
EVENING... THEN THINGS LOOK TO BE MILD AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE PCPN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND WE SEE A SURFACE LOW
EMERGE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT AT THAT POINT... WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND
QUICKER/STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. SO... AT THIS POINT CAN/T
SEE ANY REASON TO GO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HANDLING OF PRECIP
TONIGHT AS BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI
EVENTUALLY DROPS DOWN TO EVEN ENCOMPASS RWF. TEMPS HAVE BEEN COLD
ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NW WI TO GET IFR AND EVEN LIFR VSBYS
IN SNOW...BUT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THOSE CONDITIONS WILL NOT
TRAVEL SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS IN THE
FIRST 4 OR SO HOURS OF THE TAF...BUT AFTER 4Z...PRECIP RATES
SHOULD START TO TAIL OFF...WITH IFR VSBYS BECOMING LESS FREQUENT.
PRECIP LOOKS TO DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICK IN THE 8-10Z PERIOD...THOUGH
BY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO SWITCH US BACK TO
RAIN. AFTER THAT...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS REMAINING AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY...LIFTING FROM 010-015 IN THE MORNING TO
025-035 IN THE AFTERNOON. CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 10Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING WELL MIXED...SO CONFIDENT WE WILL BE
ABLE TO TAP THESE WINDS TO GETS GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS ACROSS
WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN MN.
KMSP...AS SNOW OVER CENTRAL MN HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN TWIN
CITIES METRO...AIRPORTS SUCH AS KMIC AND KANE HAVE BEEN REPORTING
MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE IFR AND LOWER VSBYS IN
SNOW REPORTED NORTH OF THE METRO EARLY TODAY TO MAKE INTO MSP.
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VIS IN SNOW...THOUGH THIS IS BEGINNING
TO LOOK LIKE IT MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT OF AN OVER REACTION. AT ANY
RATE...THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1Z AND 4Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE REST OF THE TAF THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ONLY BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THU AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CIGS HAPPEN PRIOR TO THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WIND S-SW 10KTS.
SAT...CHC MORNING MVFR/SHRA. VFR AFTN. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING....THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WITH LIGHT QPF HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CURRENT KLNX 88D SCAN REVEALS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO NORTH ACROSS
DEUEL...WESTERN GARDEN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LOOSELY HAS THE SITUATION RESOLVED...SO WILL GO WITH A
GENERAL BLEND OF THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RESULT IS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS EVENING...WILL NEED TO
WATCH A COMPACT PV ANOMALY THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PANHANDLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND THE PV MAX WOULD ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN AFTER SUN UP WEDNESDAY WHEN A 100KT+ H5 JET DIVES
SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COMBINES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SFC
PRESSURE FALLS...AND SOLID MIXING AS LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE. THERE/S POTENTIAL OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND IF WE MIX TO THE FULL POTENTIAL /ABOVE
H7/...50MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ATTM WE FEEL THE 45 MPH GUSTS SHOULD
BE THE UPPER LIMIT.
THE WIND/MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
POST FRONTAL CAA...BUT STILL...LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S /NORTHWEST/...30S ELSEWHERE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE PARTIALLY DECOUPLING NEAR DAWN...IF THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE A
PRODUCT OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL
CAA WILL PROMOTE HIGHS OF ONLY THE UPPER 40S FOR THE NORTH...NEAR 60
OVER THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...LOWER 20S CENTRAL SANDHILLS...TO
THE UPPER 20S FAR NERN ZONES.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIRMASS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND LIMITED MIXING...HIGHS NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST FROM NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR TO NEAR 50 IN THE NORTHEAST.
A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A MOISTURE RETURN FROM TEXAS INTO KANSAS. A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 30 TO 50 POPS
FRIDAY AFTN EAST OF AINSWORTH THROUGH MULLEN AND OGALLALA.
PREFERRED THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE 12Z GFS RUN OVER THE NAM.
CHC POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER TROUGH
EXITS.
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE AT KVTN BEFORE 21Z...AND CROSS THE
KLBF TERMINAL BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DEEMED A BIT
LIGHT ON SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS MAY NUDGE SPEEDS
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. STRATUS
IS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF. BUT AS OF NOW...THE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IMPACTING EITHER KLBF OR KVTN IS LOW /LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT/.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY... AS A WARM FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL USHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EASTERN STATES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...
UPDATE...AN INITIAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING RAIN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LULL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...BARELY VISIBLE ON H2O VAPOR
IMAGERY BUT WELL-DEFINED ON RAP AND GFS...WILL BE LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...ONGOING ~100 POPS LOOK GOOD.
SIMILARLY... THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT BUMP UPWARDS IN THE TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SUPPORTING THE
VERY GRADUAL RISE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES TO PECK AWAY AT THE COOL AIRMASS.
CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING WITH A PARENT HIGH (1035MB)
SLOWLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE EAST-SELY FLOW
JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE WAS STRENGTHENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W OR SHEAR AXIS.
THIS OVERRUNNING SET-UP WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NEWD AND EXITS OUR
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY
AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
A COASTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST
AT 19Z. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGEST TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN SLOWLY
RISING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS EXCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT SHOULD BE AT
OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE DUE TO RAIN
AND/OR LIGHT FOG...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO WELL MIXED TO CAUSE AREAS
OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPEPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL SEND A SERIES OF S/W INTO
CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NC. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARM
HUMID AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION.
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE
35-45KT RANGE. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW (RESIDUAL EFFECT OF THE CAD AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT)
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES NEAR THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR
ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER... THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT
BE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OF SUFFICIENT DEPTH AS LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
SUCH THAT THE 12Z GFS MUCAPE VALUES REACH 1200-1400 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
MLCAPE 400-600J/KG. IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES AND IF PEEKS OF SUN
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON NEAR OR ADJACENT TO OUR
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE.
PLAN TO HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY CATEGORIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS PRECIP CHARACTER BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE.
HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (SOONER THE
BETTER). HAVE MAX TEMPS VARYING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NW (WHERE
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS WILL BE LATE TO ERODE) TO THE MID 70S SE. IF
ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCUR (SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN) THEN
MAX TEMPS MAY END UP 3-4 DEGREES WARMER.
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE THREAT. SHOULD SEE POPS DECREASE IN
THE WEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...
THU/THU NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG DRYING AND SINKING AIR EXPECTED ABOVE
850 MB... ALTHOUGH THE TRULY COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THU NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND
COMPONENT... SO EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS FROM 71-78. ISOLATED
SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTED VERY LOW COVERAGE AND LOW QPF RESULTING
FROM THE FALLING PW... WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST... ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT 850-800 MB ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT TO SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS FROM 43 NW
TO 51 SE AS THICKNESSES DROP BELOW NORMAL.
FRI-TUE: DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRI/SAT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY FRI... PUSHING TO THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION BY SAT AND OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. A BAGGY AND
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OFF THE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS... A RESULT OF A
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT SW AND
NRN MEXICO FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER FL AND THE SE STATES.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER NC STARTING LATE SAT AS THE SW TROUGH
HEADS EASTWARD... INCREASING THE SWRLY STEERING FLOW AND PASSAGE
OF PERTURBATIONS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND OVER 12 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN
LIFTING THIS MID LEVEL LOW TO THE E THEN NE THROUGH THE MID MISS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE OP ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENS MEAN THAN THE GFS... AND THE GEFS MEAN
ACTUALLY MORE RESEMBLES THE OP ECMWF THAN THE GFS. WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF...WILL GO WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUN BUT HOLD OFF ON
CHANCE POPS UNTIL SUN NIGHT... LIKELY LASTING INTO MON/TUE (WITH A
DROPOFF IN CONFIDENCE) WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A STEADY STREAM OF
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS... AND SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THICKNESSES SHOULD
START OFF BELOW NORMAL SAT AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE SUN...
HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL MON/TUE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM TUESDAY...
VERY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STOUT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW PUMPS MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE RAIN BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN
CHARACTER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A NELY SFC FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER TO A SELY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND INCREASE CLOSE TO 40KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THIS CONDITION EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST AND PERSIST THE LONGEST IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TAF SITES.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS SET-UP SHOULD
INITIATE AND SUSTAIN BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC FROM
MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. MAIN LIMITATION TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL NC...AIDING TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THE CLOUD COVERAGE...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC
BY LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...RADAR INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS OVER THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR
WHERE STRONG ON SHORE WINDS WERE PUSHING SOME MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE
PCP TOWARD THE COAST...THEN MOVING ON SHORE AS LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
60 WEST OF I95 AND INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE EVIDENT WITH N-NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS VEERING TO MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT MOIST HELP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP
HOLDS OFF SHORE. OVERALL A STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED VEERING
PROFILE OF LOW- LEVEL WINDS WORKING DOWN TO THE SFC EVENTUALLY
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND AND NORTH. THE BULK OF
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN STRATIFORM IN NATURE TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO
A SHOWERY CHARACTER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS MILD AIR
INLAND. EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO SEE QPF TOTALS UP TO 1.25 INCHES UP
THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND
LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT INTO TONIGHT
BUT RATHER THAN DROP TOO MUCH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISE AS WARM
FRONT MOVES INLAND AND NORTH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS
OF 3 PM TUESDAY...H5 LOW DROPPING TOWARD THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
DIRECT A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT TO MOVE BY. THE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL
EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF
THE COAST DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END. IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY BUT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND INCREASED STABILITY NO PLAN TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR
THURSDAY. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LACKING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. ON SATURDAY THE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE PATTERN IS
QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES END UP OFF THE
COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WARM ADVECTION. THE OFFSHORE RIDGE APPEARS TO HAVE
SOME STRENGTH TO IT AS MODELS SHOW THE NEXT POTENT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH FROM THE WEST GETTING SHUNTED NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS MAKING
FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE RAIN CHANCES
BROUGHT BY THIS SYSTEM AS TYPICALLY IN SUCH A SETUP GUIDANCE IS TOO
FAST. FOR NOW THE BEST BET STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE
TROUGH EVEN LOSES MOST OF ITS IDENTITY AS VERY BROAD RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEDGE STILL HANGING IN THERE AND EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AM
LEANING TOWARDS THE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM AS IT HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY AT ILM. OVERNIGHT EXPECT IFR INLAND WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR ALONG THE COAST...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
WEDNESDAY...THINGS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AT ANY
TIME. COULD BE SOME DECENT STORMS IF WE GET SOME GOOD HEATING.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6 TO 8 FT WITH WINDS NE UP TO 25 KTS
VEERING AROUND SLIGHTLY TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AND
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO WAVE PERIODS OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER AROUND FURTHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST AND INLAND WITH MAIN FOCUS OF
SCA ON SEAS REMAINING HIGH DUE TO ON SHORE PUSH. AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE E TO SE. INCREASED CONVERGENCE/SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FETCH WEDNESDAY WILL TURN TO AN
OFFSHORE DIRECTION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS LACKING BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONT AND EXPECT THE FLOW TO BACK TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
THE WATERS VERY LATE. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
DURING WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RANGE WILL INCREASE FROM NEARSHORE TO
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING US
BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND SLACKEN IN SPEED DUE TO THE HIGH EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WATERS EASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FURTHER VEERING TO SE OR PERHAPS EVEN SW THEN SLATED FOR
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES OFFSHORE AND PERHAPS A WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER AND ALL BEACHES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND 8PM THIS
EVENING ALONG THE BEACHES AND CLOSE TO 1030 PM FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON.
THE GREATEST TIDE DEPARTURE OCCURS THE DAY AFTER FULL MOON AND WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COUPLED WITH ONSHORE FLOW HAVE
OPTED TO RAISE AS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR GEORGETOWN...HORRY...
BRUNSWICK.... NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SHOULD COVER THE IMPACTS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SRP/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
231 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...RADAR INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS OVER THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR
WHERE STRONG ON SHORE WINDS WERE PUSHING SOME MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP
TOWARD THE COAST...THEN MOVING ON SHORE AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
60 WEST OF I95 AND INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE EVIDENT WITH N-NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS VEERING TO MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT MOIST HELP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP
HOLDS OFF SHORE. OVERALL A STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED VEERING
PROFILE OF LOW- LEVEL WINDS WORKING DOWN TO THE SFC EVENTUALLY
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND AND NORTH. THE BULK OF
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN STRATIFORM IN NATURE TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO
A SHOWERY CHARACTER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS MILD AIR
INLAND. EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO SEE QPF TOTALS UP TO 1.25 INCHES UP
THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND
LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT INTO TONIGHT
BUT RATHER THAN DROP TOO MUCH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISE AS WARM
FRONT MOVES INLAND AND NORTH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WARM
FRONT...BEFORE DRYING OCCURS THURSDAY. THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...OR POSSIBLY COMPLETELY
THROUGH...THE CWA TO START THE PERIOD. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD...DRAPED FROM A LARGE CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LLJ OF
30-40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE PBL WEDNESDAY AFTN...THIS DRIVING BOTH
THE WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TREMENDOUSLY STEEP...AND DRY AIR ABOVE 600MB
WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY MIX
DOWN AS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST AS WELL...AND SPC HAS PLACED
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK IN THE SWODY2.
POTENT VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...CAUSING RAPID DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS EVIDENCED BY
PWATS FALLING TO 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE UPPER VORT HOWEVER...SO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
BE A WARM AND BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BEFORE THE FROPA OCCURS LATE.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ON THE
STRONG WAA...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S OR EVEN LOW 80S SOUTHERN
ZONES...MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH. MID TO UPPER 70S WILL AGAIN BE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SOLID 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING ONLY TO 60-65...COOLEST
INLAND...WITH MORE SEASONABLE LOWS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
COLD FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN AN EXCEEDINGLY
DRY COLUMN...IT WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL BUT DRY...WITH
ONLY SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO INCREASE LATE SAT
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED PROGRESS OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND NOW MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM
CHANCES...BUT TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEDGE STILL HANGING IN THERE AND EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AM
LEANING TOWARDS THE HRRR IN THE NEAR TERM AS IT HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY AT ILM. OVERNIGHT EXPECT IFR INLAND WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR ALONG THE COAST...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
WEDNESDAY...THINGS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AT ANY
TIME. COULD BE SOME DECENT STORMS IF WE GET SOME GOOD HEATING.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6 TO 8 FT WITH WINDS NE UP TO 25 KTS
VEERING AROUND SLIGHTLY TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AND
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO WAVE PERIODS OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER AROUND FURTHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST AND INLAND WITH MAIN FOCUS OF
SCA ON SEAS REMAINING HIGH DUE TO ON SHORE PUSH. AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE E TO SE. INCREASED CONVERGENCE/SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS TO
START WEDNESDAY...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING. WINDS
OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND AN SCA WILL CARRYOVER FROM TUESDAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS FOR 4-7 FT SEAS. AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES FARTHER NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...AND WINDS SPEEDS
WILL EASE TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE ALSO SHIFTING MORE TO
THE SW. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE ADVISORY AND WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3-5 FT THURSDAY MORNING. W/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WILL THEN
PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SE ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AT 10-15 KTS AND PUSHING THE
HIGHEST SEAS EVEN FURTHER FROM SHORE LEAVING 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TO START THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS INITIALLY
WILL BE NW AROUND 15 KTS AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL EASE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS FRIDAY
AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM
NW EARLY TO EAST LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT EARLY FRIDAY WILL DROP
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING AROUND 2 FT SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...ALL RIVER AND WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDES UP AND DOWN THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE FULL MOON IS TODAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW/SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
LATEST RADARS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL. EARLIER
LIGHTNING SEEMS TO HAVE ENDED EAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
A LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 830 AM CDT HAS
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TRAILED OFF TO A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK. MAY HAVE
TO RAISE MAX TEMPS SOUTHEAST...BETWEEN WISHEK AND OAKES..IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THIS MORNING. ONGOING
FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...TURNING COLDER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/LOWS
WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH CIRCULATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE TROUGH.
ONE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTERS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD. ANOTHER CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN FROM HETTINGER AND FORT YATES NORTHWARD TO
MORTON AND BURLEIGH COUNTIES.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTERS LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THUS THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BY THIS
EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER - STRONGER - UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA TODAY AND APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORTWAVE MERGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL DEEPEN/INTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BLAST OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
THE STATE BEHIND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
AFTER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S THIS MORNING...AND
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE...THE COLD AIR INTRUSION SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 20S IN THE WEST TO LOWER
30S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AND CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BECOME CHANCES OF
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
A COOL AND WINDY WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES...UTILIZED A BLEND FOR THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND DEEPEN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SHORT TERM WILL ALREADY HAVE PROPAGATED THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WINDY AND COOL POST FRONTAL DAY
EXPECTED. 0.5 KM WINDS OF 35-40 KTS ARE FORECAST IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A FEW WRAP AROUND RAIN
SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 WEDNESDAY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK TO NEAR ZONAL. HOWEVER...EARLY NEXT WEEK
A LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
AT NOON CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND
WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT. VFR AT KJMS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 KTS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY....WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
909 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
A LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 830 AM CDT HAS
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TRAILED OFF TO A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK. MAY HAVE
TO RAISE MAX TEMPS SOUTHEAST...BETWEEN WISHEK AND OAKES..IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THIS MORNING. ONGOING
FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...TURNING COLDER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/LOWS
WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH CIRCULATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE TROUGH.
ONE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTERS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD. ANOTHER CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN FROM HETTINGER AND FORT YATES NORTHWARD TO
MORTON AND BURLEIGH COUNTIES.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTERS LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THUS THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BY THIS
EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER - STRONGER - UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA TODAY AND APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORTWAVE MERGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL DEEPEN/INTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BLAST OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
THE STATE BEHIND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
AFTER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S THIS MORNING...AND
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE...THE COLD AIR INTRUSION SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 20S IN THE WEST TO LOWER
30S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AND CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BECOME CHANCES OF
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
A COOL AND WINDY WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES...UTILIZED A BLEND FOR THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND DEEPEN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SHORT TERM WILL ALREADY HAVE PROPAGATED THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WINDY AND COOL POST FRONTAL DAY
EXPECTED. 0.5 KM WINDS OF 35-40 KTS ARE FORECAST IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A FEW WRAP AROUND RAIN
SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 WEDNESDAY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK TO NEAR ZONAL. HOWEVER...EARLY NEXT WEEK
A LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING LIFTING TO MVFR/IFR
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. KBIS/KJMS WILL HAVE A WINDOW THIS MORNING OF VFR
CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THESE TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THIS MORNING. ONGOING
FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...TURNING COLDER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/LOWS
WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH CIRCULATING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE TROUGH.
ONE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTERS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD. ANOTHER CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN FROM HETTINGER AND FORT YATES NORTHWARD TO
MORTON AND BURLEIGH COUNTIES.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTERS LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THUS THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BY THIS
EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER - STRONGER - UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA TODAY AND APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORTWAVE MERGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL DEEPEN/INTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BLAST OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
THE STATE BEHIND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
AFTER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S THIS MORNING...AND
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE...THE COLD AIR INTRUSION SHOULD
RESULT IN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 20S IN THE WEST TO LOWER
30S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AND CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BECOME CHANCES OF
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL KEEP ANY SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
A COOL AND WINDY WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES...UTILIZED A BLEND FOR THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND DEEPEN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SHORT TERM WILL ALREADY HAVE PROPAGATED THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WINDY AND COOL POST FRONTAL DAY
EXPECTED. 0.5 KM WINDS OF 35-40 KTS ARE FORECAST IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUPPORTING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL VALUES...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A FEW WRAP AROUND RAIN
SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 WEDNESDAY.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK TO NEAR ZONAL. HOWEVER...EARLY NEXT WEEK
A LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING LIFTING TO MVFR/IFR
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. KBIS/KJMS WILL HAVE A WINDOW THIS MORNING OF VFR
CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THESE TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO SHARPEN
THINGS UP WITH REGARDS TO THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO INDIANA.
THIS FRONT IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON MODEL THETA-E PLOTS...SURFACE
WIND/T/TD OBSERVATIONS...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA
DURING THE 04Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. POPS WERE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT...AS IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOST SPOTS ON THE MAP WILL AT LEAST PICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEAR TO BE REACHING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...AND THIS WAS
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS AS WELL. THE 00Z HRRR WAS USED AS GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING...AS ITS INITIALIZATION MATCHES THE CURRENT FRONTAL
POSITION VERY WELL.
FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
FOR TEMPERATURES (A SIGNIFICANT DROP THROUGH MORNING) AND CLOUDS
(GRADUAL CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT) APPEARING TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO TRANSLATE INTO SE
CANADA ON THURSDAY. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH AND
MORE SUN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO PERSIST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S SE TO NEAR 40 NW.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE SOME BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPILL IN FROM THE WEST AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY MILDER. EXPECT
FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO THE UPPER
30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTAINING AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE APPROACHING ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. NAM OFFERS A BIT SLOWER SOLUTION IN
KEEPING SHOWERS TO THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. WENT CLOSER TO FASTER
GFS AND ECMWF.
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE IN ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE BACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE
NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 50S...INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S
SUNDAY...THEN THE MID AND UPPER 60S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OF THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES BY 01Z. AFTER THIS HAS
PASSED...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS (WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS)
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...SOME MVFR CEILINGS...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30
KNOTS. THE WIND DIRECTION (AROUND 250-270 DEGREES) WILL NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY AS THIS FRONT PASSES.
ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER...AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VFR
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN
ON THURSDAY WILL BE WITH WIND...AS WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH REMNANTS OF PATRICIA BRINGS RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130AM UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS...BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ECHOES IS STILL FALLING OUT OF 9KFT DECKS...SO STILL
LIKELY ONLY SEEING VARY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TWEAKED
POPS SOME TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS USING HRRR AND WRFARW.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY TRIED TO ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE PRECIP
SHADOW SOME IN THE I79 CORRIDOR...GOING WITH POP/QPF MINIMUM
THERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FAR WESTERN CWA TO AT OR NEAR 100 PERCENT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A DEFORMATION BAND SLIDES NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT STARTS TO FEEL
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AS 850MB FLOW INCREASES OUT OF
THE E/SE TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STOUT BAROCLINIC LEAF READILY EVIDENT ON STLT TODAY OVER SE 1/4
OF THE CONUS. ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CONFLUENCE ZONE WHERE THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM JETS MEET OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SERVED TO ENHANCE
THE EFFECT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...AND
BECOMES A RATHER FLAT WAVE BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE CWA TUE
NT...IN SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE W EVEN AS IT FORMS OUT OF SEVERAL
SMALLER S/W TROUGHS.
THE ORIGINAL SFC FEATURE BECOMES WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE CWA TUE NT...BUT A TIGHT W TO E LOW LEVEL GRADIENT SPELLS A
CLASSIC RAIN SHADOW EFFECT ON STRONG SE FLOW. WITH THIS...AND MOST
OF THE FORCING OUTSIDE UPSLOPE GENERATED IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RAINFALL TUE NT INTO WED SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE...A SLOW
SOAKER WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OVER SIX HOUR PERIOD IN THE ERN
UPSLOPE AREA OF WV...AND SLIGHTLY LESS OVER THE WRN FRINGES...AND
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER SIX HOURS IN THE SHADOW AREA IN
BETWEEN.
MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS DO NOT MIX MUCH OF THE 70KTS SHOWN
AT H85 OFF THE NAM12 TO THE SFC. THE STRONG INVERSION CREATED BY
COOL ATLANTIC AIR FLOWING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A STRONG SFC HIGH
SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...BENEATH WARMER AIR FLOWING IN
ON SW MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL KEEP STRONG WIND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE
VERY HIGHEST RIDGES.
A NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN DIGS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...AS
THE FINAL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE THAT ESTABLISHES A L/W TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS COME THU. A SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY WED IN RESPONSE
TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PULLS QUICKLY NEWD...REACHING
JAMES BAY IN CENTRAL CANADA BY THU MORNING. THIS PULLS A STRONG
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED INTO WED NT...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THU. THIS RESULTS IN GOOD MIXING
THROUGH WED NT AND THU...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS TAKEN OUT
ON WED. THIS ALSO DRIES OUT THE WEATHER...AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ARE REALIZED ON THU.
THU EVENING FINDS THE L/W ALREADY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE NERN
STATES.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A NON DIURNAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE...STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING ON TUE NT...AND THEN NEARLY STEADY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU AS H85 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT
5C. USED MOSTLY TO NAM BASED GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE NEAR THE LOW END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP ON WED AND THE HIGH END ON THU WITH BETTER
MIXING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED THURSDAY NIGHT...TO BE
REPLACED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WX THRU
SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
UNSETTLED. THE CULPRIT BEING AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW
CONUS AND INTERACTING WITH THE N STREAM. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
WITH AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
JUST HOW WET WET GET.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 30
HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME EXPECTED DROPS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS THE RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FOR THE LOWLAND SITES WILL AID IN KEEPING
CATEGORIES FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IN FACT...VFR WILL MAKE APPEARANCES HERE AND THERE.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST MOIST UPSLOPE...WILL KEEP BKW
MVFR DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. TIMING OF MVFR
ARRIVAL MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/27/15
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IFR CIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
849 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALSO...TWEAKED
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.
NOT SURE IF CIRRUS TONIGHT WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT
FORECAST LOWS. FOR NOW...DID NOT ALTER LOWS. LATEST HRRR DEPICTED
THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL STAY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
12Z, A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, SHIFTING THE WINDS NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT... GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY... AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WRN TROUGH... WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT... WITH LL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE S/SE INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE FALL LIKE... LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S SPREAD N-
S ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING... THE WRN TROUGH... CURRENTLY WELL
DEPICTED ON WV PUSHING ASHORE OF NORCAL/OR/WA... WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG TOWARD SOCAL/BAJA/WRN AZ... PICKING UP MOISTURE FROM THE
PAC/GULF OF CA... AS WELL AS INCREASING SERLY LL FLOW WELL AHEAD
ACROSS THE WEST TX PLAINS FROM THE GULF... ADDING TO THE MOISTURE
PROFILE. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY SUPERB OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS AND SUPPORTED
BY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...
RESULTING IN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. AT
PRESENT... PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS W TX/TX PH/WRN OK
AFTER MID/EARLY FRI AM. A STRONG SRLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP...30 TO
40KTS... INCREASING LL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL A WELL SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE BY FRI MORNING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX. FOR INITIAL PRECIP
CHANCES... ONLY MADE A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER GIVEN
INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE DRIVEN BY STOUT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OFF THE
LLANO ESTACADO INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK... DEVOID OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.
FRIDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS NRN TX
INTO SRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE H500 LOW BEGINS TO LIFT E/NE
ACROSS NM AND THE UPPER RIO GRAND VALLEY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE W TX PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEVELOPING FROM WRN N TX INTO SRN AND
CENTRAL OK. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY THE SURGE OF THE
H850 FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PAIRED WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WITH
AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR
BANDING... AGREE WITH THE LATEST WPC QPF (RAINFALL) FORECAST...
INCREASING AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE EVENING. AT
PRESENT TIME... THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND
BETWEEN THE I-44 AND I-35 CORRIDORS FRIDAY... BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACCUMULATING BETWEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... GREATER RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SHIFT
EAST... PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO WEST TEXAS. IN RESPONSE... THE GREATEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT E/SE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACCUMULATING EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40.
SATURDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SLIDE EASTWARD... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN OK/WRN N TX
THROUGH THE MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY... THE H500 TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY INTO THE AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR
TRICK OR TREATERS AND THOSE COMING OUT TO THE WEATHER FESTIVAL AT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER (I HIGHLY SUGGEST YOU VISIT THE NWC).
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THE AFTN AND EVENING WILL BE DRY... BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LOITER ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
OVERALL... PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN
INCH TO UP TO 3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS... 2 TO 3 INCHES...
REMAIN MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX...
ALONG/BETWEEN THE I-44 AND I-35 CORRIDORS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
WITH THIS FORECAST... WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO
THE LONG DURATION AND THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED. HOWEVER... AS ALWAYS...
WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
FOR SUNDAY... WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP CHANCES GOING ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL OK INTO SUNDAY... BUT THE VAST MAJORITY WILL REMAIN DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS S/SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING
WRN TROUGH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING AT
RETURNING PRECIP CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 65 47 61 / 0 0 30 90
HOBART OK 45 67 50 59 / 0 0 40 90
WICHITA FALLS TX 48 75 53 67 / 0 0 60 100
GAGE OK 38 61 44 55 / 0 0 30 70
PONCA CITY OK 38 62 42 58 / 0 0 10 90
DURANT OK 49 73 52 68 / 0 0 20 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/68
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS. A SEASONABLY COLDER LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL END THE WEEK. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AS OF 10 PM. ANOTHER MESO LOW/STRONG
ROTATING THUNDERSTORM IS TRACKING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
MESO ANAL HAS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO/PA BORDER...WITH
A LEE SIDE TROUGH FEATURE FORMING FURTHER EAST OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY. HRRR STILL SHOWS THE LARGEST MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN
MOVING THROUGH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR INTO THE WEE HOURS...WITH
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MORNING BUT THE REAL
PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH THURSDAY STILL ENDING UP RELATIVELY MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH RISE IS SEEN IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY. BUT SOME SUN SHOULD
BREAK THROUGH POST-FRONT. WRAP AROUND/LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL
START TO CLOSE BACK IN ON THE NW THURS EVENING. WINDS MAY BE
GUSTIER IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE DRY
AIR MOVES IN AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO 5-7 KFT AGL TAPS WESTERLY
WINDS OF 50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. MEAN GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE...BUT A FEW COULD TICKLE THE 40 KT RANGE
ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A
MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
EJECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS YET-TO-BE DETERMINED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST WITH RESPECT TO
THE PCPN PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 28/12Z MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT TUE-WED WHICH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
A SHOT OF MODESTLY COLDER AIR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A
SECONDARY FROPA AND BRING LAKE EFFECT/HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO
THE NW ALLEGHENIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING OVERALL RAIN RISK AND TIMING/PLACEMENT/EXTENT LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OP ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A SRN STREAM
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH PLACING THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP STORM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY. IT/S SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT /AND WARM FRONT/ WILL
BRING GUSTY SE TO SOUTH WINDS...PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN...AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LLWS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY...AND MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...GIVEN INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AND VERY STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
HELP CLEAR IT OUT EARLY THU...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY WEST TO WSW WIND AOA 30 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
15Z WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND COMBINES WITH
LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH THE BKN STRATO CU DECK.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WINDY. AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.
FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...PONDING/STANDING WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS..STREAMS AND
CREEKS BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
817 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS. A SEASONABLY COLDER LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL END THE WEEK. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TRACKING NORTH
THROUGH MY EASTERN ZONES...WITH MORE DISORGANIZED BANDS OF RAIN
AFFECTING CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THE EASTERN RAINS ARE ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET CORE SURGING
UP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE WESTERN RAINS SEEM MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND MARKS THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF SOME UNSTABLE AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING
UP FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE LARGER PICTURE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ENTERING EASTERN
OHIO...WITH A HARD TO FIND/DIFFUSE EAST-WEST WARM FRONT BISECTING
OUR FCST AREA. HRRR SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT THE REAL PUSH OF
THE NEW AIRMASS DOES NOT COME UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. THUS...THE
TEMPS COULD REMAIN MILD ALL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND AND JUST A 30-40 DEG WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAXES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMALS. NOT MUCH RISE IS SEEN IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY. BUT SOME SUN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH POST-FRONT.
WRAP AROUND/LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL START TO CLOSE BACK IN ON
THE NW THURS EVENING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTIER IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN AND DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING TO 5-7 KFT AGL TAPS WESTERLY WINDS OF 50 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. MEAN GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30-35 KTS
RANGE...BUT A FEW COULD TICKLE THE 40 KT RANGE ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A
MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
EJECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS YET-TO-BE DETERMINED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST WITH RESPECT TO
THE PCPN PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 28/12Z MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT TUE-WED WHICH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
A SHOT OF MODESTLY COLDER AIR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A
SECONDARY FROPA AND BRING LAKE EFFECT/HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO
THE NW ALLEGHENIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING OVERALL RAIN RISK AND TIMING/PLACEMENT/EXTENT LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OP ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A SRN STREAM
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH PLACING THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP STORM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY. IT/S SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT /AND WARM FRONT/ WILL
BRING GUSTY SE TO SOUTH WINDS...PERIODS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN...AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LLWS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY...AND MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...GIVEN INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AND VERY STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
HELP CLEAR IT OUT EARLY THU...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY WEST TO WSW WIND AOA 30 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
15Z WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND COMBINES WITH
LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH THE BKN STRATO CU DECK.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WINDY. AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.
FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...PONDING/STANDING WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS..STREAMS AND
CREEKS BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
758 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM THAT HAS COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
ONCE HURRICANE PATRICIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONTINUING
TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY MORNING. A SEASONABLY COLDER LAKE EFFECT
SHOWER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL END THE WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A FEW BANDS OF MDT TO HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT QUICKLY NE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE
AXIS OF A POTENT /3-4 SIGMA/ SSE LLJ SLIDES EAST ACRS THE REGION
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TWD THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
SPC MESOANALYSIS AND 17Z HRRR INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH SFC BASED
CAPE IS NON-EXISTENT NOW...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND YIELD A
FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF THE NEWD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AND EWD MOVING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
BLENDED SREF AND HRRR QPF YIELDS ANOTHER 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
SREF PROB OF CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG PEAKS AT AROUND 50
PERCENT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH THE NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH RIBBON OF INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES 00-03Z.
SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THESE
CONVECTIVE/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEING A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH LOW-TOPPED TSRA
AND BRIEFLY STRONG SWRLY WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. THERE`S EVEN A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE
LLVL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND LCLS WELL BELOW 1000M AGL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT THE REAL PUSH OF
THE NEW AIRMASS DOES NOT COME UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. THUS...THE
TEMPS COULD REMAIN MILD ALL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND AND JUST A 30-40 DEG WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAXES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ABOUT 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMALS. NOT MUCH RISE IS SEEN IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY. BUT SOME SUN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH POST-FRONT.
WRAP AROUND/LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL START TO CLOSE BACK IN ON
THE NW THURS EVENING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTIER IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN AND DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING TO 5-7 KFT AGL TAPS WESTERLY WINDS OF 50 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. MEAN GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30-35 KTS
RANGE...BUT A FEW COULD TICKLE THE 40 KT RANGE ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A
MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
EJECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS YET-TO-BE DETERMINED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST WITH RESPECT TO
THE PCPN PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 28/12Z MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT TUE-WED WHICH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
A SHOT OF MODESTLY COLDER AIR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A
SECONDARY FROPA AND BRING LAKE EFFECT/HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO
THE NW ALLEGHENIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING OVERALL RAIN RISK AND TIMING/PLACEMENT/EXTENT LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OP ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A SRN STREAM
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH PLACING THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH PERIODS OF MDT
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LLWS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE LLWS SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND LIFT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 03Z TO 09Z.
SOME TSRA IS OCCURRING AT MDT...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 03Z AT MDT AND POSSIBLY
LNS. THERE REMAINS SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND VERY STRONG LLVL
WIND FIELDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE LLWS SUBSIDES...THE THREAT OF
STORMS WILL DIMINISH.
THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
HELP CLEAR IT OUT EARLY THU...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO MID THURSDAY.
GUSTY WEST TO WSW WIND AOA 30 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
15Z WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND COMBINES WITH
LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH THE BKN STRATO CU DECK.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WINDY. AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.
FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...PONDING/STANDING WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS..STREAMS AND
CREEKS BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
703 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG I-29 AGAIN TONIGHT SO HEADLINE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH
HEAVIER SQUALLS REDUCING VSBY DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES. ALSO
GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET/RAIN MIXING IN AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH. WILL THEN
BE WATCHING THE VORT LOBE ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA. THIS NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OR A DUSTING TO THE NORTHEAST CWA...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ALSO WATCHING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. ITS BEEN HIT AND MISS FOR
WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AS MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH IT OR
JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINE REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL 00Z THOUGH AS A COUPLE 20Z OBS WERE IN LOW END CRITERIA
SUSTAINED AND GUSTING CLOSE TO 45 MPH. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF
STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS
925 MB WINDS INCREASE. MAV/LAV GUIDANCE FOR SISSETON ACTUALLY SHOWS
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE LIKELY LOCALIZED TO SISSETON AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
SISSETON. PEEVER AND SUMMIT MAY SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AS WELL...BUT
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEXT SURGE WILL BE TO WARRANT
EXTENDING A WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH 06Z OR 09Z. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION FOR EVENING SHIFT. SPS
MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS AS WELL IF IT IS MORE OF A LOCALIZED
EVENT.
CLOUDS ARE THE NEXT ISSUE. STILL A WEALTH OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA AND FEEL MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AFTER SUNSET THERE SHOULD BE SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE WESTERN END. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN THE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DEPART/CLEAR OUT...BUT DID GO FOR A CLEARING TREND OVER CENTRAL
SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE THOUGH GIVEN UPSTREAM
TRENDS SO EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. RAP 925-850
RH ACTUALLY KEEPS HIGH VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDS STAYING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL A
HUGE AMOUNT.
REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET AS A SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS STILL TRICKY TO FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AND RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE ALREADY ONGOING BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A SHARP DROP IN THE EVENING THEN SEE READINGS STEADY
OFF OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES AS WINDS INCREASE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH...AS WE TYPICALLY SEE VERY OFTEN...FAVORED
COLD SPOTS AND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
AND STAY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL
QUITE NICELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SKIRTING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY DRY FOR OUR
CWA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES BY THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
REGARDLESS. THE MILD PACIFIC FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN
THE TEENS...AND CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN THIS EVENING AND AFFECT KABR AND
KATY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY
THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
835 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA ATTM.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SHOW ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THUS WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 06Z...THEN JUST THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AFTER 06Z. WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUNDS FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL...SKIES CLEARING OUT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND HELP TOUCH OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SKIES MAY CLEAR ENOUGH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND SUNRISE...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND IS WET AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.
EXPECT ZONAL H5 FLOW THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW MOVES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN RIDGING ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP
BRING DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
LITTLE ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE PRETTY
CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING UNDER FAIR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THANKS TO A
SFC RIDGE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER MIDDLE TN.
H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING THRU THE ENTIRE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX TOWARD TN. THIS PATTERN
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID STATE ON SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN BOTH DAYS.
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE BEST DURING THAT TIME. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE WEAKENING H5
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. NO REAL PUNCH OF COLD AIR IS NOTED
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM. IN FACT...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
AVERAGE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS H5 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO KEEP US RAIN FREE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KCKV AND KBNA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT MVFR/IFR CLOUD
DECK RETURNING TO KCSV LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS MAY PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST TOMORROW TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 50 68 40 64 / 20 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 46 63 38 61 / 20 0 10 0
CROSSVILLE 52 65 37 60 / 20 10 10 0
COLUMBIA 48 69 36 65 / 20 0 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 50 68 39 65 / 20 0 10 0
WAVERLY 48 65 40 62 / 20 0 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1258 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT AUS IS
ALREADY ONLY TWO DEGREES...SO I THINK FOG WILL FORM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS REDUCING VIS TO MVFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE THEY
WILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO HIGHLIGHTS OR HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AWAY
FROM THE REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST...A DAMPENED TROUGH
IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
FOR TODAY...WINDY AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. WINDS WILL GUST TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES AS TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS. A NEAR REPEAT OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX HIGHS AND LESS CLOUD COVER GIVEN DRIER
VERTICAL PROFILES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
OUR HAZARD FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION. THE MAIN RISKS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION FOR OTHER
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
BY MID-WEEK...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK DRY FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE RE-ESTABLISHING OF
MOISTURE COMMENCES. A STRONG SIGNAL ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE SUITE OF
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES A POTENT MID-LVL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG SIDE BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL HELP INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL AID IN DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE
DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO NEAR 560 DM WHICH IS ABOUT 10DM DEEPER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE
WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND VS.
THE PAST EVENT WHERE PWATS WERE UPWARDS OF 2.1-2.3" VS. THE
PROGGED 1.8-1.9` (BUT STILL GOOD). THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR HEAVY RAIN AS SET-UP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCED. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS A POSSIBLE
DRYLINE SURGE OCCURS OR IF IT WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED EVENT LATE
FRIDAY INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY. LOOKING AT PROGGED CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS AND SOUNDINGS...HEALTHY PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN
PLACE THAT COULD SUGGEST ORGANIZATION FOR A BROKEN QLCS ALONG A
POSSIBLE DRYLINE SURGE SATURDAY MORNING TO MID-DAY. ANY
ORGANIZATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD AID IN STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLY OTHER HAZARDS AS A 90-100 KT JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SET-UP FOR OVERALL RAIN ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD POSSIBILITIES.
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BECOMES MURKY ON SUNDAY
WITH EC SLOWER THAN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS. THE UKMET AND GEM FAVOR A
SLOWER PATTERN WITH RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 62 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 56 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 85 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 57 78 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 57 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 57 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 56 86 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 57 83 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 58 83 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 61 85 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 59 86 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1130 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 06Z/2AM...OTHERWISE THE
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SINCE FRONT
WILL NOT REACH WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
6AM...HAVE ADJUSTED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
WE SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CLEARING THINGS OUT LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY
LINGERING UPSLOPE SE WV/FAR SW VA/NW NC OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS THURSDAY IN THE SE WV MTNS TOWARD
NC...BUT EAST OF THIS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY
KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS INTO NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
LINGERING HERE.
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT-THURSDAY BUT ONLY IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT STAYING
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.
DESPITE BEING POST-FRONT THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SW
WITH AXIS OF NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH YET
ANOTHER VORT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NW FLOW AT TIMES WITH
SUNSHINE WILL WARM THINGS UP IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO EXPECT
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH NW FLOW
WEAKENING. LOW LVL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 40S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME
MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THIS FORECAST TURNS MORE TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WILL HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF SHOWER
CHANCES EXISTS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER CHANCE WORKING SW
TO NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR SE...BUT FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING AIDED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE FRONT FROM GEORGIA TO NC OUTER BANKS. WILL STAY
WITH LOW POPS TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHS
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ATTM WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN TO ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
NAM/GFS/RAP AND HRRR MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE
LAST BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WAS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...EAST
OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT. ALSO HAD CONSISTENT TIMING OF
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z/8AM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BEHIND THIS LAST BAND OF SHOWERS WINDS BECOME WEST THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER AS SEEN ON BUFKIT. HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF VFR CEILINGS IN
AT KLWB AND KBLF AROUND 01-04Z/9PM-MIDNIGHT BUT WITH ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. LATER TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN
OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF WILL
AGAIN HAVE MVFR CEILINGS.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED SOME OF THE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR WIND
GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
746 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRV AND
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THIS AREA. LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL NC DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SC. THUS FAR
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT AREA BUT
THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WARRANT SPC KEEPING OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX. ALL OTHER PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.
AS OF 250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE PIEDMONT
OF VIRGINIA...WITH ANOTHER MODERATE AREA BETWEEN BLF-EKN WV.
THE LATEST HRRR/WRF SHOWING 2-3 BANDS POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. QUESTION REMAINS SVR THREAT. REGIONAL
RADAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE ATTM UPSTREAM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OVER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
SWD INTO THE TRIAD WILL MAKE IT EAST AND DESTABILIZE THE PIEDMONT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME CELLS
WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT EVEN SO...THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH WEDGES SLOW TO CLEAR OUT...WE ARE GETTING HARD PRESSED
FOR ANY BIG THREAT OF SVR. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED WORDING IN THE
HWO...AS WE STILL HAVE THE BETTER DYNAMICS TO DEAL BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
FOR NOW I WILL KEEP MOST IF ANY THUNDER WORDING LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH MODERATE SHOWERS INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN WE SHOULD
REACH A POINT WHERE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CLEARING THINGS OUT LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY LINGERING
UPSLOPE SE WV/FAR SW VA/NW NC OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAY SEE
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS THURSDAY IN THE SE WV MTNS TOWARD NC...BUT
EAST OF THIS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY KEEPING THE
SHOWER THREAT MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS INTO NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING HERE.
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT-THURSDAY BUT ONLY IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT STAYING
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.
DESPITE BEING POST-FRONT THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SW
WITH AXIS OF NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH YET
ANOTHER VORT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NW FLOW AT TIMES WITH
SUNSHINE WILL WARM THINGS UP IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO EXPECT
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH NW FLOW
WEAKENING. LOW LVL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 40S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME
MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THIS FORECAST TURNS MORE TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WILL HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF SHOWER
CHANCES EXISTS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER CHANCE WORKING SW
TO NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR SE...BUT FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING AIDED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE FRONT FROM GEORGIA TO NC OUTER BANKS. WILL STAY
WITH LOW POPS TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHS
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ATTM WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN TO ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
NAM/GFS/RAP AND HRRR MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE
LAST BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WAS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...EAST
OF KLYH AND KDAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT. ALSO HAD CONSISTENT TIMING OF
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AROUND 12Z/8AM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BEHIND THIS LAST BAND OF SHOWERS WINDS BECOME WEST THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER AS SEEN ON BUFKIT. HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF VFR CEILINGS IN
AT KLWB AND KBLF AROUND 01-04Z/9PM-MIDNIGHT BUT WITH ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. LATER TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN
OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF WILL
AGAIN HAVE MVFR CEILINGS.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED SOME OF THE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR WIND
GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...CF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...AMS/WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
513 PM PDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to the forecast for tonight. Radar shows the
anticipated precipitation is moving across the Basin. Yakima,
Ellensburg, Wenatchee, and Omak have all measured a few hundredths
of an inch so far. Best area of rain looks to be moving into the
Basin between Ephrata and Tri-Cities.
Radar trends agree for the most part with the NAM and HRRR models,
although the HRRR does seem a tad slow. Light steady rain should
reach the WA/ID border cities around 10 or 11 pm with sprinkles
possible before then. Rain will only last for a few hours. Low
clouds and some fog will form in the wake of the rain, east of a
Republic-to-Lewiston line, and these will persist into Thursday
morning. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak but moist front will move over the region this
evening and overnight. This will bring light rain to all of the
TAF sites. Only the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW sites are expected to have
IFR weather from this. This will begin as the rain ends in the
middle of the night and continue through the morning hours in the
form of a low stratus cloud deck, which should dissipate around
noon. There are currently bands of showers over western WA/OR and
some of these may be able to survive the trip across the Cascades
and bring renewed precipitation chances in the morning. But these
typically don`t amount to much so they were left out of the TAFs.
RJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM PDT WED OCT 28 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday...The pattern change is underway with the
gradual de-amplification of the long-wave ridge and it being
replaced with a more progressive zonal flow. The weak occluded
frontal zone currently associated with a north to south oriented
band of precipitation working its way from west to east is
weakening some as it moves through the forecast area. The
weakening is more or less justifying the rather light
precipitation amounts in the forecast coupled with the high pops.
Given the progressive nature of the forecast for the next 24 hours
forecast temperatures remain on a bit on the warm side of climo
for this time of year. /Pelatti
Thursday night through Saturday night...A wet and windy autumnal
pattern is shaping up for this period featuring a good hosing from
a subtropical atmospheric river enhancing over a series of
transient fronts Friday and Saturday. Snow levels will remain in
the 6000 foot range as an air mass able to support this 1 inch or
so PWAT stream will necessarily be warmer than average and promote
warmer than average surface temperatures through the period. Storm
total rainfall from Friday through Saturday night...according to a
blend of the suite of current model guidance...suggests one to two
inches in the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with a general one
third to 1/2 inch or more in the basin...except a tenth or so in
the downslope deep basin area.
Thursday night will witness the departure of the initial
outriding short wave with decreasing showers mainly over the Idaho
Panhandle. Friday morning will feature a moist air mass with light
winds...and despite mid level cloud cover there is a good chance
of at least patchy fog in valleys.
Friday the incoming atmospheric river will arrive and enhance
isentropically over the first warm front providing some
substantial rainfall and high mountain snow for most of the
region. Winds will become breezy out of the southwest as this
initial warm front passes through. The fetch will become more
favorably directed and established Friday night and Saturday with
another warm front and round of sustained stratiform rain...but
the deep basin zones will experience a minor rain shadow effect in
the overall fast westerly flow regime driving the fetch into the
region. Winds will be a significant issue starting Friday and
lasting through Saturday with gust potential in the well mixed
warm sector potentially approaching 40 mph over exposed terrain.
A weak cold occluded front will round out the frontal parade
during the day Saturday. The all important Trick-or-Treat period
for the youngsters may occur as the air mass dries out after this
FROPA over much of the area...showery but not a total rain
out...but still quite windy and blustery over the region. /Fugazzi
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak but moist front will move over the region this
evening and overnight. This will bring light rain to all of the
TAF sites. Only the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW sites are expected to have
IFR weather from this. This will begin as the rain ends in the
middle of the night and continue through the morning hours in the
form of a low stratus cloud deck, which should dissipate around
noon. There are currently bands of showers over western WA/OR and
some of these may be able to survive the trip across the Cascades
and bring renewed precipitation chances in the morning. But these
typically don`t amount to much so they were left out of the TAFs.
RJ
00Z TAFS: A weak but moist front will move over the region this
evening and overnight. This will bring light rain to all of the
TAF sites. Only the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW sites are expected to have
IFR weather from this. This will begin as the rain ends in the
middle of the night and continue through the morning hours in the
form of a low stratus cloud deck, which should dissipate around
noon. There are currently bands of showers over western WA/OR and
some of these may be able to survive the trip across the Cascades
and bring renewed precipitation chances in the morning. But these
typically don`t amount to much so they were left out of the TAFs.
RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 43 54 42 56 47 57 / 100 40 10 80 80 80
Coeur d`Alene 43 52 40 52 45 55 / 90 70 20 80 90 90
Pullman 43 55 43 55 46 56 / 100 60 20 80 80 80
Lewiston 46 59 44 61 50 62 / 80 40 20 60 70 70
Colville 42 54 40 53 43 54 / 90 50 10 80 80 70
Sandpoint 42 50 40 52 42 52 / 90 80 30 90 100 100
Kellogg 42 49 39 48 43 51 / 100 80 40 100 100 100
Moses Lake 43 62 44 65 48 62 / 100 20 10 50 40 50
Wenatchee 44 61 43 63 49 61 / 60 20 10 40 30 50
Omak 40 58 39 58 43 57 / 60 20 10 70 50 70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE TIMING AND
DURATION OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CONGEAL
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN CONCERT
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A PESKY NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE BASIC EVOLUTION
OF THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BAND AND CARRIES IT NORTHWARD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY 14 OR 15Z THIS MORNING WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. NOT GOING TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF ANY POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE FAR NORTH AS MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
ARE DUBIOUS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
EXPECT LOTS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...EXPECT MORE IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE LOTS OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY CONGEALS WITH MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...SEEMS TO
BE FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
PRIMARY UPPER-LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS RAPIDLY COMMENCES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR DVN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST TO NEAR
GRB BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD...HUGE SLUG OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL ALSO BE
RAPIDLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850 MB
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS. LEADING EDGE OF PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN STEADILY SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST
QG FORCING AND DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY...WHEN
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. FORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPROACHING
THREE QUARTER TO PERHAPS AN INCH LOCALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SOAKING RAIN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
SIGNIFICANT STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNT OF
SNOW THE FAR NORTH WOULD RECEIVE. GFS IS SLOWER WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE NORTH...MAINLY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
850MB WINDS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE AT 340 DEGREES FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IF THE COLDER AIR
MATERIALIZES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED
ADJUST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACCORDINGLY ONCE MODELS CONVERGE ] ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO THE FOX VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. DO EXPECT INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BEYOND THIS PERIOD...NO REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
AFTER A VFR AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION...ADVERSE FLYING WEATHER
WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD NE WI THIS EVENING AS A STRENGHTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES NWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE...THUS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
FCST TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS THIS EVENING
AND THEN FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT AS THE RAIN INTENSIFIES.
ALONG WITH THE PCPN...GUSTY EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TNGT. THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO LIFT NORTH AND
CONT TO INTENSIFY ON WED...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST WED MORNING AND MAY
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO THE MVFR RANGE ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WED AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY SHOWS LEADING SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH N IL PRESENTLY. THIS SURGE OF PRECIP IS ARRIVING
SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED...SO REDUCED POPS UNTIL THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS S WI. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE
REGION WILL THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR IN
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. A MOIST AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PROVIDED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WIND-DRIVEN RAIN
WILL AFFECT VSBYS LATER TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE REDUCTION TO MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
PROTECTIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN
GTLAKES MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SUCCUMBING TO UPSTREAM PHASING
OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. THIS UPSTREAM TROF
AMPLIFICATION WILL PULL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY
REGION NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS NORTHWARD MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEEPER COLUMN HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS TO OVER 1 INCH. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE NOW
CREEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS IL AND THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION. THIS
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE FIGHTING AGAINST A DRY EASTERLY
AIR FEED ACROSS THE LOWER GTLAKES. HENCE THIS WILL SLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MEASUREABLE RAIN ACROSS SRN WI FOR A TIME TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
NEVER THE LESS...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST
CWA IN THE EARLY AFTN...EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET AND INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN GTLAKES.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AS SURGE OF MOISTURE
TIED TO PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PASS ACROSS SRN WI. QPF FROM THIS AFTN THRU TNGT SHOULD
BE AROUND THREE QUARTER INCHES. MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL BEGIN TO WRAP
AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION THE STEADY RAIN TO
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
EXPECT LULLS IN THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY WED AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO
DRY OUT. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WED WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
50S WHICH WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MN
ON WED. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE WED
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND VERY
GUSTY WINDS. NW 850 MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN WI
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WED NIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH SEEM LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS COULD TAP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING SO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY... ALONG WITH A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION.
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN FRI MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DRAW SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WELL... LEADING
TO CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US... SO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL YIELD TO RAPIDLY FALLING CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM MID AFTN THRU THE EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADS TAF
SITES. WITH MOIST ELY FLOW AND STRONG WINDS...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL
TO IFR AND POSSIBLY BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS DURING THE
EVENING...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.
BLUSTERY ELY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY OVERNIGHT RAIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS LIKELY LATER WED AS STEADY PRECIP TURNS MORE SHOWERY.
MARINE...NORTHWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE LAKE SURFACE FROM WED AFTN INTO
THU. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 KTS. HENCE
WL UPGRADE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD
FROM 21Z/WED TO 21Z/THU.
WILL ALSO PUSH UP START TIME OF ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEVERAL
HOURS TO 15Z. WILMETTE BUOY REPORTING 4-5FT WAVES AT 08Z WITH 19KT
ONSHORE WIND GUSTS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS TO DEVELOP BY MID-
MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE TOWARD WI TODAY AND TONIGHT
RESULTING IN THE INCREASING ELY SFC WINDS. A FEW GUSTS COULD GET
CLOSE TO GALE CRITERIA TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ643>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE TIMING AND
DURATION OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CONGEAL
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN CONCERT
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A PESKY NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE BASIC EVOLUTION
OF THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BAND AND CARRIES IT NORTHWARD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY 14 OR 15Z THIS MORNING WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. NOT GOING TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF ANY POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE FAR NORTH AS MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
ARE DUBIOUS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
EXPECT LOTS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...EXPECT MORE IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE LOTS OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY CONGEALS WITH MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...SEEMS TO
BE FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
PRIMARY UPPER-LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS RAPIDLY COMMENCES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR DVN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST TO NEAR
GRB BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD...HUGE SLUG OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL ALSO BE
RAPIDLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850 MB
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS. LEADING EDGE OF PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN STEADILY SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST
QG FORCING AND DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY...WHEN
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. FORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPROACHING
THREE QUARTER TO PERHAPS AN INCH LOCALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SOAKING RAIN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
SIGNIFICANT STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNT OF
SNOW THE FAR NORTH WOULD RECEIVE. GFS IS SLOWER WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE NORTH...MAINLY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
850MB WINDS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE AT 340 DEGREES FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IF THE COLDER AIR
MATERIALIZES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED
ADJUST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACCORDINGLY ONCE MODELS CONVERGE ] ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO THE FOX VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. DO EXPECT INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BEYOND THIS PERIOD...NO REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
OTHER THAN SOME SCT IFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL ABOUT
14Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN RAPIDLY CONGEAL OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM
RAINFALL FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS RAINFALL COMMENCES...FIRST AT
WESTERN TAFS SITES INCLUDING AUW/CWA AFTER ABOUT 03Z...THEN
EASTCENTRAL TAF SITES INCLUDING ATW/GRB AFTER ABOUT 06Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 09Z. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM EASTERN IOWA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ESB
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE TIMING AND
DURATION OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CONGEAL
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN CONCERT
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A PESKY NARROW BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE BASIC EVOLUTION
OF THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BAND AND CARRIES IT NORTHWARD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY 14 OR 15Z THIS MORNING WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. NOT GOING TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF ANY POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE FAR NORTH AS MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
ARE DUBIOUS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
EXPECT LOTS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...EXPECT MORE IN THE
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE LOTS OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY CONGEALS WITH MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...SEEMS TO
BE FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
PRIMARY UPPER-LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS RAPIDLY COMMENCES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR DVN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST TO NEAR
GRB BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD...HUGE SLUG OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL ALSO BE
RAPIDLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850 MB
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS. LEADING EDGE OF PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN STEADILY SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST
QG FORCING AND DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY...WHEN
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. FORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS APPROACHING
THREE QUARTER TO PERHAPS AN INCH LOCALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SEE A DECENT SOAKING RAIN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015
SIGNIFICANT STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNT OF
SNOW THE FAR NORTH WOULD RECEIVE. GFS IS SLOWER WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE NORTH...MAINLY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
850MB WINDS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE AT 340 DEGREES FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IF THE COLDER AIR
MATERIALIZES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY NEED
ADJUST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACCORDINGLY ONCE MODELS CONVERGE ] ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO THE FOX VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. DO EXPECT INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BEYOND THIS PERIOD...NO REAL
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015
DESPITE RAIN ENDING AND A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE
REGION...LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE RHI SITE. GIVEN THE LACK
OF A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AT THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES...MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...WITH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES LIKELY SEEING RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
159 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHOWERS HAVE EXPANDED INTO A BROKEN LINE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS
SUCH...WENT UP TO LIKELY POPS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE ACTUALLY DECOUPLED THANKS TO
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL BACK IN
UPSTREAM. DID UP THE LOWS A TOUCH BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AS THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
POPPED UP FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS SCHEDULED...GIVEN THE DIMINISHMENT OF INSTABILITY. ALSO ALIGNED
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER DROP OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES/BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A FEW EMBEDDED ENHANCED ECHOES AS
WELL. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AGAIN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH IT WILL THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL RETURN. SEEING SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS LINE OF THINKING FROM
THE HRRR AS WELL. BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
AT UPPER LEVELS...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS STILL A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEMS EXIT
MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD FROM TX
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN. RAIN WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER DRIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY BUT THEN BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PROBABLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO VA BY AROUND 14Z...LEAVING US WITH
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
WET AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN PERSISTENT. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...ELSEWHERE IT WILL DRY
OUT...WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING. AFTER A DRY FRIDAY THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY. AFTER A COOL PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD WARM TO 60 TO 65 FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TOUCH UP WIND GUSTS AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES NORTH/SOUTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 131...PLOWING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS
OF 40+ MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOW REMAIN IN PLACE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MIDDAY. 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR SUSTAINED WINDS INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. A FEW POWER OUTAGES
HAVE SHOWN UP ON THE CONSUMERS PAGE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE AS GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
BRING DOWN DEAD LIMBS ONTO POWER LINES.
AS FOR THE PRECIP HAVE 80+ PCT POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP GENERATION WILL ROLL INTO FULL SWING. DELTA T/S BY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 18C WITH A LAKE TEMP OF 13C AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C. HAVE OPTED TO THROW IN THE MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN INTERIOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT -5C SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH AND THE HRRR PRECIP TYPE AGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG
VORT COMES IN WITH IT SUPPLYING LIFT...SO THE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WE WILL ALSO SEE H8 TEMPS PLUNGE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...WE WILL STAY WET. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE
EXITS.
IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND RAW THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 45 TO 50
WITH A STRONG WIND. BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
LAKESHORE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT AND STILL HIGHLIGHT
40 MPH GUSTS...AND 35 MPH INLAND. THE HIGHER WINDS KICK IN TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL FINALLY END. SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN 30S FOR LOWS.
DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD RETURN OVER THE NW CWA LATE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
THE MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS FORECASTED
TO OPEN UP AS IS TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SOME OF IT/S
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. A
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO ADVECT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL WAVE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL
THEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY NEARING THE MI/IN BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS ZONAL BEHIND THIS DEPARTING WAVE. THIS
MEANS A WARM UP FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD SHOULD END UP WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND...WHICH MAY OFFSET THE DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS I KEPT VALUES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOW REDEVELOPING WITH THE COLDER AIR
COMING IN OVER THE LAKE. WE EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS
OVER CENTRAL AND NRN WISCONSIN ROTATE IN ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS
ALONG WITH SOME BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE AFTER 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY
LAST MOST OF THE DAY...BEFORE THE LOWER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT TO THE NE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN
AFTER 21-22Z.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE W/SW TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
LIKELY. THESE WILL TAIL OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE GALE WARNING THE ONLY
HEADLINE OUT NOW. GALES ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTS AT THE MOMENT IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. WAVES SHOULD PEAK
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 10-15 FOOT RANGE. MANY OF THE NEARSHORE
BUOYS...SOUTH HAVEN...BRIDGMAN AND PORT SHELDON WERE PULLED FOR
THE SEASON IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MID LAKE BUOY CURRENTLY HAS 7
FOOTERS AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WAS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ANYWAY HAS UNDERPERFORMED THUS FAR. TOTALS HAVE
MOSTLY BEEN BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER END
TOTALS CONFINED TO JACKSON COUNTY. THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON DID
SPIKE TO 10.15 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT HAS FALLEN SINCE. BANKFULL IS
13 FEET.
AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FROM SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THIS DOES NOT
POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
213 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS. A SEASONABLY COLDER LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL END THE WEEK. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AS OF 10 PM. ANOTHER MESO LOW/STRONG
ROTATING THUNDERSTORM IS TRACKING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
MESO ANAL HAS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO/PA BORDER...WITH
A LEE SIDE TROUGH FEATURE FORMING FURTHER EAST OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY. HRRR STILL SHOWS THE LARGEST MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN
MOVING THROUGH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR INTO THE WEE HOURS...WITH
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MORNING BUT THE REAL
PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH THURSDAY STILL ENDING UP RELATIVELY MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH RISE IS SEEN IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY. BUT SOME SUN SHOULD
BREAK THROUGH POST-FRONT. WRAP AROUND/LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL
START TO CLOSE BACK IN ON THE NW THURS EVENING. WINDS MAY BE
GUSTIER IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE DRY
AIR MOVES IN AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO 5-7 KFT AGL TAPS WESTERLY
WINDS OF 50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. MEAN GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE...BUT A FEW COULD TICKLE THE 40 KT RANGE
ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A
MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
EJECTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS YET-TO-BE DETERMINED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST WITH RESPECT TO
THE PCPN PATTERN OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 28/12Z MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT TUE-WED WHICH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
A SHOT OF MODESTLY COLDER AIR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A
SECONDARY FROPA AND BRING LAKE EFFECT/HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO
THE NW ALLEGHENIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING OVERALL RAIN RISK AND TIMING/PLACEMENT/EXTENT LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OP ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A SRN STREAM
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH PLACING THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF
CENTRAL PA AT 06Z. IN IT/S WAKE...A DRIER SW FLOW IS BRINGING
MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY DROP CIGS
TO IFR AT KBFD/KJST. HOWEVER...AN EXAMINATION OF MDL SOUNDINGS
AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY. DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ENTERING OHIO AT 05Z WILL SWEEP THRU
CENTRAL PA BTWN 11Z-15Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN
WINDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER IN SOME SPOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING BREAKING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDS BY LATE AM. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE FROM LATE AM THRU LATE AFTN. EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS STABILIZES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD.
SAT...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT.
SUN...AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD.
MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS...PONDING/STANDING WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS..STREAMS AND
CREEKS BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG I-29 AGAIN TONIGHT SO HEADLINE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH
HEAVIER SQUALLS REDUCING VSBY DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES. ALSO
GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET/RAIN MIXING IN AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH. WILL THEN
BE WATCHING THE VORT LOBE ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA. THIS NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OR A DUSTING TO THE NORTHEAST CWA...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ALSO WATCHING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. ITS BEEN HIT AND MISS FOR
WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AS MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH IT OR
JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINE REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL 00Z THOUGH AS A COUPLE 20Z OBS WERE IN LOW END CRITERIA
SUSTAINED AND GUSTING CLOSE TO 45 MPH. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF
STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS
925 MB WINDS INCREASE. MAV/LAV GUIDANCE FOR SISSETON ACTUALLY SHOWS
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE LIKELY LOCALIZED TO SISSETON AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
SISSETON. PEEVER AND SUMMIT MAY SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AS WELL...BUT
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEXT SURGE WILL BE TO WARRANT
EXTENDING A WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST CWA
THROUGH 06Z OR 09Z. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION FOR EVENING SHIFT. SPS
MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS AS WELL IF IT IS MORE OF A LOCALIZED
EVENT.
CLOUDS ARE THE NEXT ISSUE. STILL A WEALTH OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA AND FEEL MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AFTER SUNSET THERE SHOULD BE SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE WESTERN END. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN THE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DEPART/CLEAR OUT...BUT DID GO FOR A CLEARING TREND OVER CENTRAL
SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE THOUGH GIVEN UPSTREAM
TRENDS SO EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER. RAP 925-850
RH ACTUALLY KEEPS HIGH VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDS STAYING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL A
HUGE AMOUNT.
REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET AS A SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS STILL TRICKY TO FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AND RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE ALREADY ONGOING BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A SHARP DROP IN THE EVENING THEN SEE READINGS STEADY
OFF OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES AS WINDS INCREASE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH...AS WE TYPICALLY SEE VERY OFTEN...FAVORED
COLD SPOTS AND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
AND STAY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL
QUITE NICELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SKIRTING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY DRY FOR OUR
CWA. THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES BY THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
REGARDLESS. THE MILD PACIFIC FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN
THE TEENS...AND CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY 18Z. AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. AN AREA OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD.
ANY IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH THE PRECIP MAY REACH AS FAR AS
KATY BEFORE EXITING BY 12Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA ATTM.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SHOW ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THUS WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 06Z...THEN JUST THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AFTER 06Z. WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUNDS FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL...SKIES CLEARING OUT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...ALSO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR KCSV.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD CALM
DOWN BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
533 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
FOG IS QUITE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MORNING FOG
WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHRESW-
ARW-EAST...RNK WRFARW...NAM AND GFS SHOWED SOME SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR PLACED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS ARE OVERDONE WITH THE WEST FLOW. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE...SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WHAT STARTS OUT INITIALLY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BECOMES SPLIT AND
BLOCKED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DECREASING
WINDS...SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH...SO
OTHER THAN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEEPER VALLEYS WITHIN
THE MOUNTAINS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ATTEMPTS TO PICK UP THE LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING 592DM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...BUT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS AL/GA WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND...ALBEIT SHEARING OUT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND POTENTIALLY NORTHEAST INTO VA.
WHILE THE MODELS HANDLE THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SAT-SUN WELL...THE SUBSEQUENT HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS POORLY HANDLED. THE
ECMWF TRACKS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WELL NORTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS RAPIDLY TAKES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HYDRO
ISSUES...WHILE THE GFS WOULD NOT. WPC HAS INDICATED THAT A SWATH
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL TRACK FROM NEAR BHM-ATL-CAE...REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1.0 INCH IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA TO 1/2 INCH NORTH. THIS WILL NOT BE A WEDGE
EVENT...MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT...AND THUS THERE SHOULD NOT
BE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS WITH SOME OF OUR PREVIOUS
EVENTS. NONETHELESS...THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED FROM GENERAL 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL LAST TWO DAYS. THUS...TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY..WILL WORD EXTENDED PORTION OF HWO AS "PROBABILITY IS
LOW" RATHER THAN "NO HAZARDS". ALSO IN THIS REGARD...HAVE CARRIED
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LONGER IN THESE PERIODS THAN I
REALLY WANTED TO IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SHOULD FINALLY BE KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY TUE AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN RESPONSE...A HIGH AMPLITUDE 592DM RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....CENTERED ACROSS FL/GA.
MEANWHILE...A NEW BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS INTO
THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. GIVEN THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW
AND BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL REACH OUR AREA IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING HAVE RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING. ADDED SOME LIFR FOG TO KBCB AND KLYH
AND MVFR FOG TO KROA AND KDAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z/8AM AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
FOG IS QUITE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MORNING FOG
WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHRESW-
ARW-EAST...RNK WRFARW...NAM AND GFS SHOWED SOME SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR PLACED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS ARE OVERDONE WITH THE WEST FLOW. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE...SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME
MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THIS FORECAST TURNS MORE TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WILL HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF SHOWER
CHANCES EXISTS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER CHANCE WORKING SW
TO NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR SE...BUT FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING AIDED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE FRONT FROM GEORGIA TO NC OUTER BANKS. WILL STAY
WITH LOW POPS TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHS
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ATTM WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING HAVE RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING. ADDED SOME LIFR FOG TO KBCB AND KLYH
AND MVFR FOG TO KROA AND KDAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z/8AM AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
151 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 06Z/2AM...OTHERWISE THE
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SINCE FRONT
WILL NOT REACH WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
6AM...HAVE ADJUSTED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
WE SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CLEARING THINGS OUT LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY
LINGERING UPSLOPE SE WV/FAR SW VA/NW NC OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS THURSDAY IN THE SE WV MTNS TOWARD
NC...BUT EAST OF THIS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY
KEEPING THE SHOWER THREAT MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS INTO NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
LINGERING HERE.
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT-THURSDAY BUT ONLY IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT STAYING
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.
DESPITE BEING POST-FRONT THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SW
WITH AXIS OF NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH YET
ANOTHER VORT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NW FLOW AT TIMES WITH
SUNSHINE WILL WARM THINGS UP IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO EXPECT
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH NW FLOW
WEAKENING. LOW LVL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 40S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME
MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THIS FORECAST TURNS MORE TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WILL HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF SHOWER
CHANCES EXISTS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER CHANCE WORKING SW
TO NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR SE...BUT FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING AIDED BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE FRONT FROM GEORGIA TO NC OUTER BANKS. WILL STAY
WITH LOW POPS TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHS
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ATTM WILL
KEEP IT MAINLY DRY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING HAVE RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING. ADDED SOME LIFR FOG TO KBCB AND KLYH
AND MVFR FOG TO KROA AND KDAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST SHOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z/8AM AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE TYPICAL WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND KLWB AND KBLF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CLOUDS
BECOMING SCATTERED ON THURSDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A DEEP WEST DOWNSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
257 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO OREGON. LEFTOVER INSTABILITY MAY CAUSE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF THE SEASON
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS OREGON AS A COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR THE CASCADES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FOG TRYING TO FORM
UNDER ANY BREAKS IN THE HIGHER CLOUDS. FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY...BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE GROUND SO MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS.
LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO OREGON
THIS MORNING...CAUSING SHOWERS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWLANDS. MOIST WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CAUSING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
TO PERSIST IN THE CASCADES DESPITE THE HIGHER PRESSURE. SOME SHALLOW
INSTABILITY LINGERS AS WELL...BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED AT 700 MB
BY WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB REMAIN STEEP
ENOUGH ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS TO PROMOTE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED IN MUCH OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LEE OF THE COAST
RANGE. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COLLAPSE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
WHILE LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECT HIGH
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER TAKING SHAPE FROM THE SUBTROPICS NEAR THE DATELINE TO AROUND
45N/140W...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
WITHIN ITS CORE. 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN AXIS
OF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT AIMED AT THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE IVT AXIS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE IT COMES BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD AGREE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND MAKES A LOT OF SENSE GIVEN THAT THE STRONG JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS AS FAST-MOVING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RACE EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
ANY STRONGER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WOULD TEND TO CAUSE WIGGLES IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...PUSHING THE AREA OF HEAVIEST
RAIN NORTH AHEAD OF THEM AND SOUTH BEHIND THEM. MODELS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE WITH THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES DUE TO THEIR SPEED AND SUBTLETY.
EVEN A SHORT BREAK IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD GO A LONG WAY TOWARD
EASING ANY MINOR HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WE HAVE. FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING
TWO PRIMARY PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA...FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND AGAIN
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL ZONE COMES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT.
IN BETWEEN...OUR QPF IS MORE MODEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE DECENT RAIN
SHADOWING WILL BE OCCURRING. THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AFFECTING THE PORTLAND METRO FOR THE TRICK OR
TREATERS HALLOWEEN EVENING...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SALEM SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AROUND 6 PM SAT
EVENING IN THE PDX METRO...WHILE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z/06Z
NAM AND 00Z GEM HOLD ONTO THE RAIN A LITTLE LONGER.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. STILL LOOKING LIKE 4-8 INCHES IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...
NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE...AND THE CASCADES FROM SOUTHERN WA TO MOUNT
HOOD. GENERAL 2-4 INCH TOTALS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. INLAND VALLEYS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOWING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-5 AND IN THE LOWER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY...ONLY 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
GRAYS RIVER NEAR ROSBURG REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO BE MINOR URBAN FLOODING DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL STREAMS DEPENDING ON
RAIN RATES. WILL ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /PDXESFPQR/ SHORTLY
ADDRESSING THE SIGNIFICANT RISES AS WELL AS TO URGE THE PUBLIC TO
MAKE SURE THEIR STORM DRAINS ARE CLEAR FOR THIS FIRST HEAVY RAIN
EVENT OF THE SEASON.
NOT TO BE LEFT OUT IN ALL THE TALK ABOUT RAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS TO AFFECT MUCH OF OUR CWA. WHILE 850 MB WINDS ARE
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON THE 00Z GFS...GENERALLY 45-55 KT AT THE
STRONGEST FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE NOT BAD WITH 4-6 MB DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF
CHOICE. WITH ISOBARS PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THE DOOR WILL BE OPEN FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. COULD SEE GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AT SOME
POINT FRI NIGHT/SAT...WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FOR THE COAST. THESE
NUMBERS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA RESPECTIVELY...
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LEAVES
STILL ON THE TREES. ADDITIONALLY THE WIND WILL KNOCK MORE LEAVES AND
SMALL BRANCHES DOWN...FURTHER EXACERBATING THE CLOGGED STORM DRAIN
ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVE.
OVERALL...EXPECT VERY WET AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TRUE RAINY SEASON BEGINS FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ONSHORE ON SUNDAY
BRINGING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WE WILL ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE PASSES BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY STARTING TO CLEAR
OUT BY TUESDAY. MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH PROGRESSING OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR THROUGH 19Z TODAY...WITH
LOCALIZED IFR. COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TO STAY MVFR TO IFR THROUGH
00Z FRI AND THEN GO MORE IFR THEREAFTER AS WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP
DEVELOPS. INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING AFTER 19Z TODAY TO HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR CONDITIONS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR DEVELOPED JUST BEFORE 09Z AND SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CATEGORY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WRN APPROACHES. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO LOW-END VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN APPROACHES. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...SOMEWHAT OF A LULL TODAY WITH 10-15 KT SW-W WIND. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER 00Z FRI AND THU NIGHT WITH THE NEXT WARM
FRONT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND
12Z FRI...POSSIBLY REACHING LOW-END GALE LATE FRI MORNING. NAM AND
GFS MAINTAIN 20-25 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS FRI MORNING...
ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF 30 KT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS.
WIND EASES A BIT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT INCREASES AGAIN
FRI NIGHT. MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE GALES 06Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN
AND AGAIN 12Z SUN THROUGH 00Z MON. HIGH PRES SPREADS INTO THE
WATERS BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DIPPED BELOW 10 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10 FT THROUGH 12Z FRI. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS
REACHING 10 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS FRI MORNING AND CONTINUING TO
BUILD FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE ENP GUIDANCE
FOR SAT/SUN DUE TO STRONGER FORECAST WIND. THUS...SEAS LIKELY TO
REACH 15-17 FT THIS WEEKEND. THINK SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...PROBABLY NOT SUBSIDING
BELOW 10 FT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A shortwave trough will bring some light
precipitation to the Inland Northwest today. One area of light
precipitation is moving across extreme eastern WA and north ID as of
2 am. A second band is just barely holding together as it crosses
the deep basin but should regain some organization as it encounters
the rising terrain east of the basin. This feature will bring
another round of light precipitation to the eastern half of the
forecast area later this morning. The HRRR and NAM have tracked the
first band well so the near term forecast is leaning heavily toward
this guidance. Once the trough axis moves off to the east, scattered
rain showers will continue in moist upslope flow into the Idaho
Panhandle tonight while the remainder of the forecast area has a
brief respite from the wet weather.
Friday through Sunday...Wetter and windier conditions will begin on
Friday as fire hose of an atmospheric river is aimed at the Pacific
Northwest. Snow levels will remain high for Friday and Saturday
as the subtropical moisture tap pushes into the forecast
area. Persistent warm frontal precipitation will begin on Friday
and continue into Saturday. A cold front will bring an end to the
steady precip and usher in more scattered showers late Saturday.
The timing of this break in the wet weather will be critical to
trick-or-treaters who wish to remain dry...or at least not
drenched. for Sunday, the upper trough will slide over the region
with more scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers. Snow
levels could fall as low as 3000 ft with mountain passes
collecting some snowfall. More details on this to come in the next
day or two. Storm total rainfall from Friday through Sunday will
be in the one to two and a half inch range in the Idaho Panhandle
and Cascades with a general one third to one half inch in the
basin...except a tenth or two in the downslope deep basin area.
The rising terrain east of the basin will see a half inch to and
inch of rainfall. Winds will be a significant issue starting Friday and
lasting through Saturday with gust potential in the well mixed
warm sector potentially approaching 40 mph over exposed terrain.
Winds will remain blustery through Sunday night.
Monday through Thursday...The region will be under cool and unstable
northerly flow as the work week begins. This will keep a chance of
showers in the forecast but as the base of the trough digs south,
the tap into deep Pacific moisture will be lost. Valley rain and
mountain snow will be showery in nature with light amounts of
precipitation compared to the weekend system. Temperatures will be
near seasonal normals. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist frontal band is moving into the WA/ID border
region at 06Z. This is causing IFR ceilings to develop quickly
over the eastern TAF sites. These cigs will persist overnight and
through the morning hours before breaking up around noon. The
first band of rain will move into the Panhandle over the next few
hours with a break in the rain. A second band of showers will move
over the Cascades and across the Basin for the remainder of the
night, reaching the ID border around 15Z. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 43 55 48 58 46 / 20 10 80 80 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 41 52 47 56 46 / 40 20 90 90 90 40
Pullman 56 43 55 47 57 46 / 20 20 80 80 80 50
Lewiston 60 46 61 52 62 50 / 20 20 80 70 70 50
Colville 52 39 52 42 54 42 / 80 10 80 80 80 20
Sandpoint 51 39 51 42 54 43 / 60 30 90 100 100 40
Kellogg 48 39 48 44 51 45 / 70 40 100 100 100 70
Moses Lake 61 44 65 48 62 47 / 40 10 50 40 50 10
Wenatchee 60 46 63 51 60 47 / 0 10 40 30 50 0
Omak 56 41 58 44 58 43 / 50 10 70 50 70 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
904 PM PDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH RAIN INCREASING OVER THE
REGION. A LOT OF RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY...THEN SHOWERY AND COOLER TO
START THE NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING INTO
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES FROM THE TOP DOWN LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH LIMITED LATE OCTOBER SOLAR HEATING
MIDDAY THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES...BUT THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN THE CENTER OF THE NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH WILL TAKE AIM AT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHOT OF HEAVIER RAIN TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE WILLAPA HILLS AND THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN 18 HOURS. THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS WILL
THEN SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY INTO NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON....LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW SOME OF THE ABRUPT RIVER RISES EXPECTED FROM THIS FIRST BOUT OF
RAIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND PUSH THE THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 0.75-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE IN A 6-12 HOUR
PERIOD SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SPEEDING UP THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE SO IT MAY CLEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING THE PORTLAND METRO BY THE TIME TRICK-OR-TREATERS GO OUT
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN IT IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY...CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ONSHORE ON SUNDAY
BRINGING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WE WILL ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE PASSES BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY STARTING TO CLEAR
OUT BY TUESDAY. MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH PROGRESSING OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOSTLY EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS...
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS. EXPECT WEAKLY ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A STABILIZING AIR MASS TO BRING GOOD CHANCE OF
RETURNING MVFR AND IFR STRATUS TO THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING.
WILL ALSO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS RETURNING INLAND LATER
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER VFR CIGS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY LOW-END VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 4000 FT
THROUGH 06Z-08Z THU. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL BRING LOW MVFR CIGS
AT TIME...THEN WITH STABILIZING AIR MASS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MORE SOLID MVFR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CULLEN/27
&&
.MARINE...NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SEAS DROPPED TO NEAR 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
BOUNCED BACK TO 10 FT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SEAS TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 FT CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
CURRENT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL AND RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS EARLY
THURSDAY...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF BUILDING SEAS
AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG
THE WINDS WILL BE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SUSTAINED GALES...ON SATURDAY.
SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES COULD BRING PERIODS OF GALE GUSTS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO REBUILD GREATER THAN 10 FT BY
LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 14-17 FT SUNDAY AND REMAINING
GREATER THAN 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11
PM PDT THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
513 PM PDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to the forecast for tonight. Radar shows the
anticipated precipitation is moving across the Basin. Yakima,
Ellensburg, Wenatchee, and Omak have all measured a few hundredths
of an inch so far. Best area of rain looks to be moving into the
Basin between Ephrata and Tri-Cities.
Radar trends agree for the most part with the NAM and HRRR models,
although the HRRR does seem a tad slow. Light steady rain should
reach the WA/ID border cities around 10 or 11 pm with sprinkles
possible before then. Rain will only last for a few hours. Low
clouds and some fog will form in the wake of the rain, east of a
Republic-to-Lewiston line, and these will persist into Thursday
morning. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak but moist front will move over the region this
evening and overnight. This will bring light rain to all of the
TAF sites. Only the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW sites are expected to have
IFR weather from this. This will begin as the rain ends in the
middle of the night and continue through the morning hours in the
form of a low stratus cloud deck, which should dissipate around
noon. There are currently bands of showers over western WA/OR and
some of these may be able to survive the trip across the Cascades
and bring renewed precipitation chances in the morning. But these
typically don`t amount to much so they were left out of the TAFs.
RJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM PDT WED OCT 28 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
Light rain will move into the region tonight and taper off on
Thursday. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread rain
on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will also
develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled conditions
with occasional wet periods will continue into next week.
DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday...The pattern change is underway with the
gradual de-amplification of the long-wave ridge and it being
replaced with a more progressive zonal flow. The weak occluded
frontal zone currently associated with a north to south oriented
band of precipitation working its way from west to east is
weakening some as it moves through the forecast area. The
weakening is more or less justifying the rather light
precipitation amounts in the forecast coupled with the high pops.
Given the progressive nature of the forecast for the next 24 hours
forecast temperatures remain on a bit on the warm side of climo
for this time of year. /Pelatti
Thursday night through Saturday night...A wet and windy autumnal
pattern is shaping up for this period featuring a good hosing from
a subtropical atmospheric river enhancing over a series of
transient fronts Friday and Saturday. Snow levels will remain in
the 6000 foot range as an air mass able to support this 1 inch or
so PWAT stream will necessarily be warmer than average and promote
warmer than average surface temperatures through the period. Storm
total rainfall from Friday through Saturday night...according to a
blend of the suite of current model guidance...suggests one to two
inches in the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades with a general one
third to 1/2 inch or more in the basin...except a tenth or so in
the downslope deep basin area.
Thursday night will witness the departure of the initial
outriding short wave with decreasing showers mainly over the Idaho
Panhandle. Friday morning will feature a moist air mass with light
winds...and despite mid level cloud cover there is a good chance
of at least patchy fog in valleys.
Friday the incoming atmospheric river will arrive and enhance
isentropically over the first warm front providing some
substantial rainfall and high mountain snow for most of the
region. Winds will become breezy out of the southwest as this
initial warm front passes through. The fetch will become more
favorably directed and established Friday night and Saturday with
another warm front and round of sustained stratiform rain...but
the deep basin zones will experience a minor rain shadow effect in
the overall fast westerly flow regime driving the fetch into the
region. Winds will be a significant issue starting Friday and
lasting through Saturday with gust potential in the well mixed
warm sector potentially approaching 40 mph over exposed terrain.
A weak cold occluded front will round out the frontal parade
during the day Saturday. The all important Trick-or-Treat period
for the youngsters may occur as the air mass dries out after this
FROPA over much of the area...showery but not a total rain
out...but still quite windy and blustery over the region. /Fugazzi
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak but moist front will move over the region this
evening and overnight. This will bring light rain to all of the
TAF sites. Only the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW sites are expected to have
IFR weather from this. This will begin as the rain ends in the
middle of the night and continue through the morning hours in the
form of a low stratus cloud deck, which should dissipate around
noon. There are currently bands of showers over western WA/OR and
some of these may be able to survive the trip across the Cascades
and bring renewed precipitation chances in the morning. But these
typically don`t amount to much so they were left out of the TAFs.
RJ
00Z TAFS: A weak but moist front will move over the region this
evening and overnight. This will bring light rain to all of the
TAF sites. Only the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW sites are expected to have
IFR weather from this. This will begin as the rain ends in the
middle of the night and continue through the morning hours in the
form of a low stratus cloud deck, which should dissipate around
noon. There are currently bands of showers over western WA/OR and
some of these may be able to survive the trip across the Cascades
and bring renewed precipitation chances in the morning. But these
typically don`t amount to much so they were left out of the TAFs.
RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 43 54 42 56 47 57 / 100 40 10 80 80 80
Coeur d`Alene 43 52 40 52 45 55 / 90 70 20 80 90 90
Pullman 43 55 43 55 46 56 / 100 60 20 80 80 80
Lewiston 46 59 44 61 50 62 / 80 40 20 60 70 70
Colville 42 54 40 53 43 54 / 90 50 10 80 80 70
Sandpoint 42 50 40 52 42 52 / 90 80 30 90 100 100
Kellogg 42 49 39 48 43 51 / 100 80 40 100 100 100
Moses Lake 43 62 44 65 48 62 / 100 20 10 50 40 50
Wenatchee 44 61 43 63 49 61 / 60 20 10 40 30 50
Omak 40 58 39 58 43 57 / 60 20 10 70 50 70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TUCSON AZ
500 AM MST THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO OUR GRIDS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
SHARPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IR IMAGERY REVEALS AN ENHANCED
BAND OF GRADUALLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH
CENTRAL PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES WHICH APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS/WIND SHIFT PER RECENT RAP ANALYSES.
THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS EXPANDING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
AS FAR AS OUR FORECAST IS CONCERNED...CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INITIAL FOCUS FROM
ROUGHLY EAST AND NORTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700 MB TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THEN...AS THE LARGER
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HEIGHTS WILL FALL QUICKLY AND THE HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AMIDST THE BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS AROUND THIS TIME...BUT ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THEM REMAINING ABOVE 8500 FEET OR
SO WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS SUPPORTING GENERALLY ONE TO FOUR INCH
AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...ANTICIPATING A FAIRLY
QUICK WEST-TO-EAST DRYING TREND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THIS
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH...MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST TO MORE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT NOTE THAT THIS MAY
STILL BE A BIT TOO SLOW.
FAIRLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...FREEZING OR NEAR-
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN IN OUR FAVORED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE TO COLDEST
NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SATURDAY AND MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...ALBEIT VERY BRIEFLY. BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND TUESDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY
EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WEST OF
KTUS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 8K-12K
FT MSL. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 10-16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
417 AM MST THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
SHARPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IR IMAGERY REVEALS AN ENHANCED
BAND OF GRADUALLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH
CENTRAL PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES WHICH APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS/WIND SHIFT PER RECENT RAP ANALYSES.
THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS EXPANDING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
AS FAR AS OUR FORECAST IS CONCERNED...CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INITIAL FOCUS FROM
ROUGHLY EAST AND NORTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700 MB TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THEN...AS THE LARGER
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HEIGHTS WILL FALL QUICKLY AND THE HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AMIDST THE BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS AROUND THIS TIME...BUT ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THEM REMAINING ABOVE 8500 FEET OR
SO WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS SUPPORTING GENERALLY ONE TO FOUR INCH
AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...ANTICIPATING A FAIRLY
QUICK WEST-TO-EAST DRYING TREND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THIS
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH...MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST TO MORE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT NOTE THAT THIS MAY
STILL BE A BIT TOO SLOW.
FAIRLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...FREEZING OR NEAR-
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN IN OUR FAVORED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE TO COLDEST
NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SATURDAY AND MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...ALBEIT VERY BRIEFLY. BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AROUND TUESDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY
EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WEST OF
KTUS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 8K-12K
FT MSL. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 10-16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
952 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Stratocumulus deck continues to sink southward this morning, with
the leading edge roughly from Quincy to Lincoln to Watseka. RAP
model humidity guidance suggesting this could make it as far south
as about I-70, before a clearing push begins from the southwest
late this afternoon. Winds already gusting up to near 30 mph in
much of the CWA, with the HRRR showing the gustiness lasting
through mid afternoon before some tapering begins.
Existing forecast was largely on track and only required some
minor tweaks. The worded forecasts were updated to reflect the
latest sky trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Unseasonably deep 521dm 500mb low continues to spin over Lake
Michigan this morning, while a significant vorticity max rotates
southward around the parent low across Minnesota. Low cloudiness
associated with the vort lobe will gradually spill southward today,
impacting the northern half of the KILX CWA. NAM 1000-850mb RH
field is handling the current cloud cover quite well, so will follow
this parameter closely for the sky cover forecast today. As a
result, am expecting mostly clear skies across the board at dawn
with overcast conditions developing along/north of the I-74 corridor
toward midday into the afternoon hours. Will also be a windy day as
pressure gradient between low over the Great Lakes and high building
into the Plains remains tight. Forecast soundings and numeric
guidance both suggest sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts to
between 25 and 30mph at times. Due to continued CAA, high
temperatures will remain well below normal...with readings ranging
from the upper 40s far north where cloud cover will be prevalent to
the middle 50s along/south of I-70 where skies will remain sunny.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
High pressure will build into the Midwest tonight, providing
clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will dip into
the lower to middle 30s. After a sunny/cool day on Friday with
highs mainly in the 50s, an approaching northern stream short-wave
will spread clouds and showers back into the area Friday night into
Saturday. Models are in good agreement with the timing of this
feature and the overall QPF...with rainfall totals generally around
half an inch. Given presence of an initially dry airmass associated
with the departing high, will continue to keep Friday evening dry.
However, as stronger upper dynamics approach from the west and
mid/low-level airmass moistens, will introduce likely PoPs
along/west of I-55 and chance PoPs further east across the remainder
of the CWA after midnight. Best rain chances are still on target
for Saturday, when widespread showers are expected. Upper wave is
progressive and will quickly push off to the east Saturday night.
Will linger showers into Saturday evening, but will dry things out
from west to east overnight.
Models have come into better agreement concerning evolution and
track of upper low initially in place over the Desert Southwest this
weekend. Previous runs had shown a highly amplified closed low, but
the 00z Oct 29 model suite now indicates a much weaker open feature
that ejects eastward more quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF take this
wave into the Tennessee River Valley Sunday night into Monday,
keeping any precip well S/SE of Illinois. Meanwhile, the GEM
continues to be the odd model out by bringing the wave much further
north and spreading rain into the CWA on Monday. Given clear trend
toward a weaker/faster/more southern solution, have rejected the GEM
in favor of the GFS/ECMWF consensus. As such, have gone with a dry
forecast Sunday through Tuesday with a steady warming trend. As has
been the case for the past several days, models continue to show
rising upper heights across the region early next week. 850mb temps
on both the GFS and ECMWF are progged to reach the 14-16C range by
Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting highs into the 70s. GFS tries to
bring moisture northward in the WAA regime as early as Wednesday,
but think this is too aggressive, especially given the fact that the
ECMWF holds any precip off until Friday at the earliest. As a
result, will continue the dry forecast through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Mostly clear skies with steady WSW winds 12-15 kts across central
IL terminals this morning. An area of low cloud over northern
IL/eastern IA containing primarily MVFR ceilings is spreading
southeastward and will begin to affect central IL terminals
starting 14Z-16Z through most of the day. Winds associated with
this feature will bring W winds 15-20 kts and gusts 24 to 28 kts
through most of the late morning and afternoon. High pressure
building into the region late in the day will cause winds to
decrease and cloud cover to decrease after 00Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
938 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOAKING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WHILE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF MAINE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE...CURRENT HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE TIDAL/COASTAL SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. OTHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH WINDS,
ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
MORE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD AT WORST REMAIN
STEADY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS. WE HAVE ALSO HAD REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES AND SOME
TREES/BRANCHES DOWN. THE HIGH WIND WARNING THEREFORE REMAINS IN
EFFECT. OTHERWISE, THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MAINLY EXITED OUR AREA,
ALTHOUGH DOWNEAST CONTINUES TO SEE A BATCH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THIS RAIN, THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END AS THE BULK OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO
CANADA.
EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER,
MAINLY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SOME SUN COULD EVEN BREAK THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. THE
CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IF WE
CAN GET SOME CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH
DEWPOINTS 55-60 OR SO. AS SUCH, EXPECT WE COULD SEE CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT; INDEED, THE HRRR SHOWS A SQUALL LINE CROSSING
NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE
PASSED, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF FLOW ALOFT FOR WINDS TO MIX
DOWN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS BASED ON
VERIFICATION LAST FOUR PERIODS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TERM WILL BE THE WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY W/NW
WINDS KICKING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V W/MOISTURE
LIMITED BETWEEN 850-700MBS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES WIND GUST
POTENTIAL OF 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY W/THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE AVAILABLE EARLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING IN THE BLYR, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, DECIDED
TO BUMP THE GUSTS FOR FRIDAY. CAA UNDERWAY COMBINED W/THE WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FOR A COLD DAY W/DAYTIME MAXES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL AND AND
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. WINDS LOOK LIKE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR. THIS IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW THE MID
20WS AS IT LOOKS ATTM.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE S ON
SATURDAY W/A CONTINUED CHILLY AIRMASS. DAYTIME MAXES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
W/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TERM.
HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFF TO THE E ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND A ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CWA
AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. DECIDED TO BRING POPS UP TO 70% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(40-50%) FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD
END AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS FORECAST ON MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE S OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY W/DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TODAY THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR ON SUNDAY W/SOME SHRA
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP GALE WARNING IN PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWARD.THIS
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WILL BE
BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT TOWARDS EVENING. EXPECT MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 18 FEET/10-12 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL WITH WAVE WATCH III
FORCING TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
W/NW WINDS KICKING IN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT W/GUSTS TO
AROUND 30. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS ON FRIDAY
W/THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY W/WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20S KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING BACK BELOW 6 FT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY W/WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND WAVES DROPPING
OFF BELOW 3 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
935 AM UPDATE...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE CUTLER TIDAL GAGE TO WATCH
FOR CHANGES IN EXPECTED STORM SURGE. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A
ONE-FOOT SURGE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME WATER TO COME INTO THE
MACIAS TOWN OFFICE PARKING LOT AND NEARBY AREAS, BUT SHOULD NOT
THREATEN BUILDINGS. HOWEVER, IF A STRONGER SURGE STARTS TO APPEAR
LIKELY, STRUCTURES COULD BE THREATENED AND WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THE ADVISORY. WE WILL ALSO MONITOR THE BANGOR RIVER GAGE CLOSELY
AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY THEN,
BUT STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN THE
USUAL LOW-LYING SPOTS DOWNTOWN. THE RIVER GAGE MAY OR MAY NOT GO
ABOVE FLOOD...IT DID NOT LAST TIME...SO THIS WILL DICTATE WHAT
SORT OF FLOOD PRODUCT WE WILL ISSUE, SHOULD ONE BE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE COINCIDENCE
OF SPRING TIDE WITH STORM SURGE AND LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES
RESULTING FROM ONGOING STORM SYSTEM. NEXT HIGH TIDE AT 12:33 PM
TODAY STILL APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH LARGEST AND LONGEST PERIOD
WAVES WITH OFF-SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 16 AND 20 FEET AND
PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS. WAVES APPROACHING COAST NOW EXPECTED
TO TO TOP OFF AT AROUND 15 FEET. EXPECT OVERTOPPING AT DEER ISLE
CAUSEWAY... SEAWALL ROAD... SCHOODIC POINT... WINTER HARBOR NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY. ALSO STRONG WIND FORCING ACROSS
PENOBSCOT AND MACHIAS BAYS COMBINED WITH SPRING TIDE COULD RESULT
IN TIDAL FLOODING IN MACHIAS AND BANGOR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1002 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH RAIN AND WIND AS YESTERDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR
TO THAT...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MANY AREAS WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIST THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 958 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TO MATCH
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND POPS. BLENDED IN MODEL REFLECTIVITY INTO
POP FORECAST TO DOWNPLAY SHOWERS IN VERMONT THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND TIME NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. BTV4 LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR HAD GOOD CONSENSUS
AND REASONABLE TIMING SO USED THEM.
OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING IN PART OF FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK FOR STRONGER WINDS...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...IN
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST NY.
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON AND SUFFICIENT
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850 MILLIBAR JET
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...SO WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MILE PER HOUR RANGE
WILL BE COMMON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWER TO
LINGER THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S AND
MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BY SATURDAY CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT THURSDAY...A SURFACE WARM AND COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS WET AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...LACKING
THE MOISTURE SOURCE. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING DURING THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS MAIN AREA
OF RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z...THEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND
19Z. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND 25 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TO THE
NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL TREND
CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THOSE
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 434 AM EDT THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY WILL ALL FOR STRONGER WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE AND WAVES BUILDING TO 3 FEET. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS AND WAVES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT BOATING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR SELECTED SITES ON THURSDAY (10/29)
KBTV 71/1946
KMPV 70/1989
K1V4 74/1971
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON
MARINE...EVENSON
CLIMATE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN TODAY AS THE STRATUS
EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL KEEPS
CLOUDS WEST OF THE MISSOURI THROUGH 21Z. WILL ADJUST TO MAINTAIN
CLOUDS THROUGH THAT TIME. WILL PROBABLY SEE ONLY A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNINGS LOW TO THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH MOST AREAS. BISMARCK RADAR SHOWING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH THE WINDS AND SHOULD COMPLETEY END
BY LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 08-10 UTC RAP AND HRRR TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLES WHICH DEPICT A SLOWING CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING CENTRAL. ALSO...ADDED POPS FOR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF EROSION OF
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...UPSTREAM FROM
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO
THE ND/MT AND WY/SD BORDERS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DECREASED
GREATLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
REPORTED IN THE FAR WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WERE STILL BRISK AT AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TO BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN THE WEST
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
20S IN THE CENTRAL...TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MID
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING...IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDFIELD IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THE
STRONGEST RESULTING FROM THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR POSSIBLY
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBIS THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 08-10 UTC RAP AND HRRR TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLES WHICH DEPICT A SLOWING CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING CENTRAL. ALSO...ADDED POPS FOR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF EROSION OF
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...UPSTREAM FROM
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO
THE ND/MT AND WY/SD BORDERS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DECREASED
GREATLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
REPORTED IN THE FAR WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WERE STILL BRISK AT AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TO BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN THE WEST
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
20S IN THE CENTRAL...TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MID
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING...IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDFIELD IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THE
STRONGEST RESULTING FROM THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR POSSIBLY
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBIS THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT RESULTED IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
FOG IS QUITE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MORNING FOG
WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGHRESW-
ARW-EAST...RNK WRFARW...NAM AND GFS SHOWED SOME SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR PLACED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA.
BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS ARE OVERDONE WITH THE WEST FLOW. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE...SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WHAT STARTS OUT INITIALLY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BECOMES SPLIT AND
BLOCKED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DECREASING
WINDS...SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH...SO
OTHER THAN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEEPER VALLEYS WITHIN
THE MOUNTAINS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ATTEMPTS TO PICK UP THE LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING 592DM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...BUT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS AL/GA WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND...ALBEIT SHEARING OUT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND POTENTIALLY NORTHEAST INTO VA.
WHILE THE MODELS HANDLE THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE SAT-SUN WELL...THE SUBSEQUENT HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS POORLY HANDLED. THE
ECMWF TRACKS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WELL NORTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS RAPIDLY TAKES IT EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HYDRO
ISSUES...WHILE THE GFS WOULD NOT. WPC HAS INDICATED THAT A SWATH
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL TRACK FROM NEAR BHM-ATL-CAE...REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1.0 INCH IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA TO 1/2 INCH NORTH. THIS WILL NOT BE A WEDGE
EVENT...MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT...AND THUS THERE SHOULD NOT
BE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS WITH SOME OF OUR PREVIOUS
EVENTS. NONETHELESS...THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED FROM GENERAL 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL LAST TWO DAYS. THUS...TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY..WILL WORD EXTENDED PORTION OF HWO AS "PROBABILITY IS
LOW" RATHER THAN "NO HAZARDS". ALSO IN THIS REGARD...HAVE CARRIED
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LONGER IN THESE PERIODS THAN I
REALLY WANTED TO IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SHOULD FINALLY BE KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY TUE AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN RESPONSE...A HIGH AMPLITUDE 592DM RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....CENTERED ACROSS FL/GA.
MEANWHILE...A NEW BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS INTO
THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. GIVEN THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW
AND BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL REACH OUR AREA IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRUE COLD FRONT EVIDENT ALONG THE ALLEGHANY FRONT OF WV AT THIS
HOUR WITH A NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
TOWARD A LWB-BLF LINE...THEN DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT TO THE EAST. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BLF-LWB WITH THE
-SHRA. OTHERWISE...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR CLEARING TO THE EAST AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY MID-MORNING ROA/LYH/DAN...WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
INTO AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON BLF/LWB...EARLY AFTERNOON BCB. ANY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
BY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE WEST. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AFT 00Z WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME W-WNW THROUGH 14Z AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z FRI.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CIGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 16Z...THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will continue this morning then taper off this
afternoon. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch
of Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread
rain on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will
also develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled
conditions with occasional wet periods will continue into next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A shortwave trough will bring some light
precipitation to the Inland Northwest today. One area of light
precipitation is moving across extreme eastern WA and north ID as of
2 am. A second band is just barely holding together as it crosses
the deep basin but should regain some organization as it encounters
the rising terrain east of the basin. This feature will bring
another round of light precipitation to the eastern half of the
forecast area later this morning. The HRRR and NAM have tracked the
first band well so the near term forecast is leaning heavily toward
this guidance. Once the trough axis moves off to the east, scattered
rain showers will continue in moist upslope flow into the Idaho
Panhandle tonight while the remainder of the forecast area has a
brief respite from the wet weather.
Friday through Sunday...Wetter and windier conditions will begin on
Friday as fire hose of an atmospheric river is aimed at the Pacific
Northwest. Snow levels will remain high for Friday and Saturday
as the subtropical moisture tap pushes into the forecast
area. Persistent warm frontal precipitation will begin on Friday
and continue into Saturday. A cold front will bring an end to the
steady precip and usher in more scattered showers late Saturday.
The timing of this break in the wet weather will be critical to
trick-or-treaters who wish to remain dry...or at least not
drenched. for Sunday, the upper trough will slide over the region
with more scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers. Snow
levels could fall as low as 3000 ft with mountain passes
collecting some snowfall. More details on this to come in the next
day or two. Storm total rainfall from Friday through Sunday will
be in the one to two and a half inch range in the Idaho Panhandle
and Cascades with a general one third to one half inch in the
basin...except a tenth or two in the downslope deep basin area.
The rising terrain east of the basin will see a half inch to and
inch of rainfall. Winds will be a significant issue starting Friday and
lasting through Saturday with gust potential in the well mixed
warm sector potentially approaching 40 mph over exposed terrain.
Winds will remain blustery through Sunday night.
Monday through Thursday...The region will be under cool and unstable
northerly flow as the work week begins. This will keep a chance of
showers in the forecast but as the base of the trough digs south,
the tap into deep Pacific moisture will be lost. Valley rain and
mountain snow will be showery in nature with light amounts of
precipitation compared to the weekend system. Temperatures will be
near seasonal normals. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS:One band of rain showers is moving into the Idaho
panhandle and a second band is moving across the basin as of 11Z.
These two features will continue to bring IFR/LIFR conditions to
TAF sites other than KEAT and KLWS. Once the second band reaches the
ID border around 15Z...conditions will begin to improve with MVFR
conditions expected by 18Z. Gusty SW winds will develop this
afternoon, mixing out the low ceilings. Winds will subside after
03Z and MVFR ceilings may return. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 43 55 48 58 46 / 20 10 80 80 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 41 52 47 56 46 / 40 20 90 90 90 40
Pullman 56 43 55 47 57 46 / 20 20 80 80 80 50
Lewiston 60 46 61 52 62 50 / 20 20 80 70 70 50
Colville 52 39 52 42 54 42 / 80 10 80 80 80 20
Sandpoint 51 39 51 42 54 43 / 60 30 90 100 100 40
Kellogg 48 39 48 44 51 45 / 70 40 100 100 100 70
Moses Lake 61 44 65 48 62 47 / 40 10 50 40 50 10
Wenatchee 60 46 63 51 60 47 / 0 10 40 30 50 0
Omak 56 41 58 44 58 43 / 50 10 70 50 70 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
327 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEAR PERFECT ZONAL MID FLOW PATTERN CURRENTY EXISTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING OLD SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE TO HAVE SAGGED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA OR EVEN THE FAR NORTHERN KEYS. THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO IT WOULD SEEM TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE THUS LOWERED THE POPS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE HRRR ALSO DOES NOT GET VERY EXCITED OTHER
THAN MOSTLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY EVEN FURTHER SO SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD KEEPING A
LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES WILL BE LESSENING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES DUE TO THE WANING
MOON. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY IF REPORTS AT HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING DICTATE.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BUT REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING IT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL IN A WEAKENING STATE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SHOWS IT STALLING
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS NEXT WEEK,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TYPICALLY, THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON
ARRIVES BETWEEN MID AND LATE NOVEMBER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGN
OF THAT HAPPENING JUST YET. BUT, GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT
AND AFTER ALL IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES, THE WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEAS OF GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 86 76 87 / 30 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 85 75 86 / 20 30 40 30
MIAMI 74 87 75 87 / 20 30 30 30
NAPLES 71 86 73 88 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....60/BD/AA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Broad cyclonic flow continuing this afternoon around the low
departing eastern Ontario, as a surface trough rotates southeast
through the Great Lakes. Cloud shield has covered most of the
forecast area north of I-70, but last few frames of the visible
satellite loop suggest it may not reach much further. RAP humidity
plots do show a bit more progress though, and will keep skies partly
cloudy across the southeast CWA this evening. Over the remainder of
the forecast area, a clearing trend should start from the southwest
this evening, but have lingered the cloud cover over the northeast
CWA much of the night. Little change needed in low temperatures,
which should bottom out a couple degrees either side of 35.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
High pressure expected to build back into the Midwest tonight,
eventually eroding the clouds towards morning with lighter winds.
Ridge axis moves over the region tomorrow, with some variability to
the lighter winds and sunny, highs warmer than today into the upper
50s. Deep upper low over the southern states moving out across the
country as another upper low and developing low pressure system
moves across the southern border of Canada...bringing rain for the
end of the week. Starting in the west Friday evening and spreading
across the region for all day Saturday. Halloween day expected to
be rather wet and gray...but should be coming to an end from west to
east later in the night. At this point, the timing looks to show
some clearing nw of the Illinois River Valley around 6-7pm. Expect
timing to become more finely tuned in the next few forecasts.
Beyond the weekend and into next week, the Midwest becomes largely
dominated by a high pressure ridge just to the east, keeping the
area dry for the most part, with a warming trend. Southwesterly
flow aloft and 850 mb temps climbing to 15-16C by Tuesday, and highs
once again well above seasonal norms, in the upper 60s/lower 70s
through Wed/Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MVFR cloud deck has reached the KSPI-KCMI corridor at midday. Some
modest rise in ceiling heights is expected with time, but
widespread MVFR ceilings will remain in place into the evening.
Have kept the cloud heights down at KBMI/KCMI much of the night,
but areas further west should see improving conditions by 06Z.
Gusty west winds to around 25 knots will quickly decrease around
23Z. Winds will become light and variable overnight as high
pressure drifts overhead, then become more southerly Friday
morning on the back side of the high.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Stratocumulus deck continues to sink southward this morning, with
the leading edge roughly from Quincy to Lincoln to Watseka. RAP
model humidity guidance suggesting this could make it as far south
as about I-70, before a clearing push begins from the southwest
late this afternoon. Winds already gusting up to near 30 mph in
much of the CWA, with the HRRR showing the gustiness lasting
through mid afternoon before some tapering begins.
Existing forecast was largely on track and only required some
minor tweaks. The worded forecasts were updated to reflect the
latest sky trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
Unseasonably deep 521dm 500mb low continues to spin over Lake
Michigan this morning, while a significant vorticity max rotates
southward around the parent low across Minnesota. Low cloudiness
associated with the vort lobe will gradually spill southward today,
impacting the northern half of the KILX CWA. NAM 1000-850mb RH
field is handling the current cloud cover quite well, so will follow
this parameter closely for the sky cover forecast today. As a
result, am expecting mostly clear skies across the board at dawn
with overcast conditions developing along/north of the I-74 corridor
toward midday into the afternoon hours. Will also be a windy day as
pressure gradient between low over the Great Lakes and high building
into the Plains remains tight. Forecast soundings and numeric
guidance both suggest sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts to
between 25 and 30mph at times. Due to continued CAA, high
temperatures will remain well below normal...with readings ranging
from the upper 40s far north where cloud cover will be prevalent to
the middle 50s along/south of I-70 where skies will remain sunny.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
High pressure will build into the Midwest tonight, providing
clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will dip into
the lower to middle 30s. After a sunny/cool day on Friday with
highs mainly in the 50s, an approaching northern stream short-wave
will spread clouds and showers back into the area Friday night into
Saturday. Models are in good agreement with the timing of this
feature and the overall QPF...with rainfall totals generally around
half an inch. Given presence of an initially dry airmass associated
with the departing high, will continue to keep Friday evening dry.
However, as stronger upper dynamics approach from the west and
mid/low-level airmass moistens, will introduce likely PoPs
along/west of I-55 and chance PoPs further east across the remainder
of the CWA after midnight. Best rain chances are still on target
for Saturday, when widespread showers are expected. Upper wave is
progressive and will quickly push off to the east Saturday night.
Will linger showers into Saturday evening, but will dry things out
from west to east overnight.
Models have come into better agreement concerning evolution and
track of upper low initially in place over the Desert Southwest this
weekend. Previous runs had shown a highly amplified closed low, but
the 00z Oct 29 model suite now indicates a much weaker open feature
that ejects eastward more quickly. Both the GFS and ECMWF take this
wave into the Tennessee River Valley Sunday night into Monday,
keeping any precip well S/SE of Illinois. Meanwhile, the GEM
continues to be the odd model out by bringing the wave much further
north and spreading rain into the CWA on Monday. Given clear trend
toward a weaker/faster/more southern solution, have rejected the GEM
in favor of the GFS/ECMWF consensus. As such, have gone with a dry
forecast Sunday through Tuesday with a steady warming trend. As has
been the case for the past several days, models continue to show
rising upper heights across the region early next week. 850mb temps
on both the GFS and ECMWF are progged to reach the 14-16C range by
Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting highs into the 70s. GFS tries to
bring moisture northward in the WAA regime as early as Wednesday,
but think this is too aggressive, especially given the fact that the
ECMWF holds any precip off until Friday at the earliest. As a
result, will continue the dry forecast through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MVFR cloud deck has reached the KSPI-KCMI corridor at midday. Some
modest rise in ceiling heights is expected with time, but
widespread MVFR ceilings will remain in place into the evening.
Have kept the cloud heights down at KBMI/KCMI much of the night,
but areas further west should see improving conditions by 06Z.
Gusty west winds to around 25 knots will quickly decrease around
23Z. Winds will become light and variable overnight as high
pressure drifts overhead, then become more southerly Friday
morning on the back side of the high.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
114 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOAKING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WHILE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF MAINE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...AS EXPECTED, WE`RE SEEING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
STEADY RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED AS WELL SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS EXITED INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE,
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. SEE THE
TIDE/COASTAL SECTION FOR AN UPDATE ON THE CURRENT THOUGHT
OUR FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WE`RE
SEEING SOME BREAKS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE
60S. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TODAY. THERE`S STILL PLENTY OF WIND AVAILABLE OFF THE
SURFACE FOR MIXING...WITH THE HRRR AND NAM INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CLOSELY AS
THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS BASED ON
VERIFICATION LAST FOUR PERIODS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TERM WILL BE THE WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY W/NW
WINDS KICKING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V W/MOISTURE
LIMITED BETWEEN 850-700MBS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATES WIND GUST
POTENTIAL OF 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY W/THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE AVAILABLE EARLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
HEATING IN THE BLYR, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, DECIDED
TO BUMP THE GUSTS FOR FRIDAY. CAA UNDERWAY COMBINED W/THE WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FOR A COLD DAY W/DAYTIME MAXES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. CENTRAL AND AND
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. WINDS LOOK LIKE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR. THIS IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW THE MID
20WS AS IT LOOKS ATTM.
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE S ON
SATURDAY W/A CONTINUED CHILLY AIRMASS. DAYTIME MAXES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
W/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TERM.
HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFF TO THE E ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND A ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CWA
AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. DECIDED TO BRING POPS UP TO 70% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND STAYED W/CHANCE POPS(40-50%) FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD
END AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS FORECAST ON MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE S OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY W/DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TODAY THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR ON SUNDAY W/SOME SHRA
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP GALE WARNING IN PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN INCREASE TONIGHT IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWARD.THIS
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WILL BE
BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT TOWARDS EVENING. EXPECT MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 18 FEET/10-12 SECONDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL WITH WAVE WATCH III
FORCING TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
W/NW WINDS KICKING IN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT W/GUSTS TO
AROUND 30. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS ON FRIDAY
W/THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY W/WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20S KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING BACK BELOW 6 FT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY W/WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND WAVES DROPPING
OFF BELOW 3 FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
105 PM UPDATE...HIGH TIDE HAS ARRIVED AND WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN MACHIAS AND SOME OVERWASH ON SEAWALL
ROAD. THE BANGOR RIVER GAGE APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND REMAINED
BELOW 11 FT. WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY GOING FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE WARRANTED BEYOND
THAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE COINCIDENCE
OF SPRING TIDE WITH STORM SURGE AND LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES
RESULTING FROM ONGOING STORM SYSTEM. NEXT HIGH TIDE AT 12:33 PM
TODAY STILL APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH LARGEST AND LONGEST PERIOD
WAVES WITH OFF-SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 16 AND 20 FEET AND
PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS. WAVES APPROACHING COAST NOW EXPECTED
TO TO TOP OFF AT AROUND 15 FEET. EXPECT OVERTOPPING AT DEER ISLE
CAUSEWAY... SEAWALL ROAD... SCHOODIC POINT... WINTER HARBOR NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY. ALSO STRONG WIND FORCING ACROSS
PENOBSCOT AND MACHIAS BAYS COMBINED WITH SPRING TIDE COULD RESULT
IN TIDAL FLOODING IN MACHIAS AND BANGOR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND WE
REMAIN UNDER THE LARGE LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST/DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.
SO...THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING AROUND DARK. DRIZZLE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN WI.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...SO WINDS WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS MOST THE FA. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...THE MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW STRATUS TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE THE SURFACE RIDGE WORKING THROUGH.
WITH THAT...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE TEMPS.
TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECTING PRECIP TO START BREAKING
OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z-00Z...BUT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TOMORROW NIGHT /WHICH IS DISCUSSED
FURTHER IN THE LONG TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION/.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW MN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN WESTERN WISC FRIDAY EVENING...
ENDING IN WESTERN WISC SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
FROM THE WNW WILL BRING A CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WISC.
FOR FRIDAY EVENING...MODEST STRENGTH MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE SW
STATES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NEWD AND SIDESWIPING MN/WI. GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WISC FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WNW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WISC. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STARVED FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SMALLER POPS ARE IN ORDER AS FAR SOUTH AS EAST CENTRAL MN AND
MOST OF OUR WISCONSIN AREA...THIS IS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
NEXT LITTLE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WNW LOOKS MUCH TO WEAK TO
RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS. THIS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ON
MONDAY...AND MODELS POINT TO A BROAD AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MN/WI. THUS WILL NEED TO HOLD TO MAX
TEMPS FOR MONDAY THAT ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HOWEVER...LARGE WESTERN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD...WITH PART OF THE ENERGY SINKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD AREA OF SW UPPER FLOW HEADING
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TUE-WED. AS
THIS OCCURS.. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD... AND A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SUGGEST MORE
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WE CAN EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAF PACKAGE
WAS TO DELAY THE VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOMORROW...MEANING THE
STRATUS WILL LINGER A COUPLE EXTRA HOURS. TAFS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
WITH THE LATEST THINKING. FOR NOW...CONTINUED MVFR IN THE
EAST...AND IFR IN THE WEST WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DROPPING BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IS A
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED. WILL START
SEEING SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS IN WESTERN MN OVERNIGHT...AND
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE HEELS OF THIS STRATUS
DECK.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL KEEP THE CEILING
ABOVE 017 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE RAP...HRRR...AND GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS AGREEMENT WITH THE TAF...JUST ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING TO LIFT THE CEILING CLOSE TO 020-025 AND HOLD IT
THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN IT WILL LIKELY FALL BACK BELOW 017.
FINALLY GO VFR TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
CLOSER TO 15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...VFR/-SHRA LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WIND S-SW 10KTS.
SAT...CHC MORNING MVFR/SHRA. VFR AFTN. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND WEST BECMG SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A A S/W AND
ITS ATTENDANT SFC FRONT HAVE ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 1
CORRIDOR. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHERE SKIES ARE BROKEN-
OVERCAST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CONVERSELY
WHERE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S WERE COMMON...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SE.
IN SPITE OF THE LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED
CONVERGENCE...LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS STILL
DEPICTS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. CAM AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS
VERIFYING TOO WET AT 18Z...AND THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTING ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TRAVERSING CENTRAL
NC WEST-TO EAST THIS EVENING. BASED ON BEST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION INTO
OUR SW COUNTIES...PLAN TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES...AND EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS. PLAN TO MAINTAIN
MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH.
S/W AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE SFC
FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST-EAST COMMENCING IN THE WEST
AROUND 9 PM...AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
VARY FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE WHERE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS UP COMPARED TO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MID-UPPER 60S. WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN OUR
VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EXPECTED WITH MID
30S PROBABLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
SFC AND S/W RIDGE DRIFT EWD SATURDAY...INITIATING A RETURN FLOW
REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL NC. INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
COUPLED WITH AN APPROACH OF A S/W WILL INCREASE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE REGION BY SUNSET. ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT/OPAQUENESS OF HIGH
CLOUDS. CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS WILL BE STARTING NEAR 40-LOWER
40S...AN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUDS
COULD DETER TEMP RECOVERY. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 5-
6 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OF LOW-MID 60S WEST TO
MID-UPPER 60S EAST. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MILDER AIR
MASS ENVELOPING THE REGION. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...
RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL FURTHER PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN
APPROACHING S/W TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG WITH ITS SFC
WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES
ACROSS. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST GFS PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD
VALID DURING SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE WAVE...ALONG WITH THE NOSE
OF A 50+ KT LLJ COUPLED WITH 50+ KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...ALL
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THAT TIME. THERE`S
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE PATTERN TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY
WORTH KEEPING TABS ON AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEN ON MONDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...THEN
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND S/W RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. FAIR WEATHER THEN EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIF
AIRMASS CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES VARYING BETWEEN 4000-8000FT. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES....ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 64...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR KFAY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUR REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL USHER A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC...ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD LAST
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST-SW SUNDAY AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS/26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
319 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
ISSUE TONIGHT IS CLOUD TRENDS. FOR THE MOST FOLLOWED THE SLOWER
CLEARING TREND OF THE HRRR MODEL ITS 925 MB RH FIELD. IT SHOWS THE
MAIN CLEARING WAITING TIL 06Z OR LATER TO REACH THE RRV. THAT SAID
THERE IS A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS NOW APPEARING QUITE QUICKLY
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO COOPERSTOWN. THIS CLOUD AREA MAY CLEAR OUT
MORE AND THIS MAY ACCELERATE CLEARING A LOT FASTER THAN CURRENT
GRIDS HAVE. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN TEMPS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
FOR LOWS AS WELL. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SOUTH OF A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA. KEPT THE AREA DRY WITH MODELS
INDICATING PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MILD ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WORK IN
BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES/SFC LOWS WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTL BORDER
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE FAST MOVING AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...BEST CHANCE
MIDDAY SATURDAY NE ND AND AFTN IN NW MN. THEN ANOTHER CHC SUNDAY.
BOTH AREA PRETTY LIGHT EVENTS. QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH HIGHS LOWER
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH WHERE SOME SUN IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES SHOW PCPN OVER THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD...WITH PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN...BUT THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN
SCENARIO ATTM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL HEADING INTO NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
FINALLY MOVES E. DRYING IS INDICATED IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING FROM THE DVL BASIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THRU
THE PERIOD...THUS TIMED THE CHANGES IN THE TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND BECOME SRLY ACROSS THE AREA BY 12-15Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLOUDS HOLDING STRONG WITH CLEARING LIKELY TIED TO NEAR THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS. PER HRRR THE LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS INTO THE NIGHT WITH
CLEARING PSBLY INTO PARTS OF THE RRV MORE TOWARD 06Z. CLOUDS AND
TEMP GRIDS LOOKING GOOD SO NO FURTHER CHANGES FOR THIS AFTN PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
THE LATEST EVENT IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE SHIFTING TO HOW FAST CLOUDS MAY ERODE TODAY. AS FOR NOW
IT REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. RADAR STILL
SHOWS SOME WEAKER ECHOES OVER THE FAR EAST AND SE. 925MB TEMPS
THERE ARE ABOVE ZERO AND SFC TEMPS ARE CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND
40F...SO WILL KEEP PCPN TYPE IN LIQUID FORM UNTIL DAYBREAK WHEN
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ABOUT DONE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL HOLD UP
THRU THE MORNING AND FINALLY BEGIN TO RELAX THRU THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE A TOUGH CALL BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF CLOUDY
THRU THE MORNING AND SOME DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
RED RIVER. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS TODAY UNLESS THE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT SOONER. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
850MB WARM ADVECTION WHICH COULD BRING A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH IT. WARMING TREND INTO FRIDAY WITH SW-W WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GOING TO STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST FRI NIGHT AS NEARLY ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP IT JUST TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE SAT MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA
THEN SPREADING EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. SOME OF THIS LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER
INTO SAT NIGHT AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON NEAR ZONAL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS A
SPLIT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THEY DIFFER ON THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY THE TIMING OF ANY WEAK LEAD OR NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVES COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. BLENDED SOLUTION GIVES
US SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES AND A COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING THAT PERIOD IT SEEMS REASONABLE. MORE
ROBUST PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD AS MODELS
COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST
AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH
BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KNOCK TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
FINALLY MOVES E. DRYING IS INDICATED IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING FROM THE DVL BASIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THRU
THE PERIOD...THUS TIMED THE CHANGES IN THE TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND BECOME SRLY ACROSS THE AREA BY 12-15Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN CHANGES INVOLVE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS.
CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES FLAT SO FAR THIS MORNING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
CLOUDS ARE ERODING SOUTHWEST THOUGH. TRIMMED TEMPS AND KEPT
CLOUDS IN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN TODAY AS THE STRATUS
EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. HRRR MODEL KEEPS
CLOUDS WEST OF THE MISSOURI THROUGH 21Z. WILL ADJUST TO MAINTAIN
CLOUDS THROUGH THAT TIME. WILL PROBABLY SEE ONLY A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNINGS LOW TO THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH MOST AREAS. BISMARCK RADAR SHOWING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH THE WINDS AND SHOULD COMPLETEY END
BY LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 08-10 UTC RAP AND HRRR TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLES WHICH DEPICT A SLOWING CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING CENTRAL. ALSO...ADDED POPS FOR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF EROSION OF
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...UPSTREAM FROM
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD TO
THE ND/MT AND WY/SD BORDERS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DECREASED
GREATLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
REPORTED IN THE FAR WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WERE STILL BRISK AT AROUND
20 MPH AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TO BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN THE WEST
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
20S IN THE CENTRAL...TO THE LOWER 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MID
NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE MORNING...IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDFIELD IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THE
STRONGEST RESULTING FROM THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE 00 UTC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR POSSIBLY
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KISN-KDIK IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z...ANDKMOT-
KBIS AFTER 00Z...WITH KJMS BECOMING VFR AFTER 03Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD QUITE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HRRR AND HOP WRF CLOUD
COVER PRODUCTS PICKING UP ON THE CLEARING QUITE NICELY AND SHOWS THE
CLEARING CONTINUING...BUT PERHAPS STALLING A BIT LATER THIS EVENING
FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE QUITE TRICKY AND DO NOT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. HARD TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE
WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO GO SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST. TOUGH
TO BALANCE ALL THIS OUT AND GET A GOOD NUMBER FOR LOWS. REGARDLESS
THOUGH...LOOKING AT 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHEAST SD INTO MN AND STILL HAVE JUST SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE CWA. MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARM UP INTO SATURDAY AS 925/850 MB TEMPS
ARE ON THE RISE WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BENEATH A MILD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. A
SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO A WAVE OF ENERGY THAT KICKS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE AMONGST MODEL
RUNS. MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE OUT PERIODS...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND AN MVFR STRATUS DECK
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AFFECTING THE
KABR AND KATY TAF SITES /KMBG CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO VFR CATEGORY/.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS WELL AS
EROSION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE KABR AND KATY SCATTER OUT. CURRENT
ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 00Z FOR KABR AND 06Z FOR ATY. AFTER CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
317 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EDGES CLOSER. THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER VALLEY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES IT EAST INTO
THE CWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE PROPPED UP IN THE
MID 70S. THE FAVORABLE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG SOUTH
LLJ OVERNIGHT...AND WILL FEED INTO A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE.
FRIDAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL BE ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS INLAND AND
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARER THE COAST. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS ADVERTISED BY SPC...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVORING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADOES...IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. HIT AND
RUN SHOWERS...AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE DAY...WILL CONTAIN BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WITH PWAT PUSHING ABOVE TWO INCHES AGAIN...COULD SEE
A QUICK INCH OF RAIN...BUT TRAINING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. QUICK MOVEMENT
ON THE OTHER HAND COULD LIMIT QPF.
FRIDAY NIGHT...INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER TO SUGGEST A SQUALL LINE
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO KICKOFF
THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT SHOULD ACHIEVE FAVORABLE TIMING. TWO TO
FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE...WITH SMALL SPIN-UPS
POSSIBLE. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST LATE...WITH DRY
SLOTTING AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ON SATURDAY MAINTAINING THE
THREAT FOR CONV MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH 500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER VERY LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
WILL PUSH INTO THE DESERT SW STATES WITH RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEX. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED IN ON
THE SW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
WILL FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST TROUGH AXIS AS THE ECMWF TENDS TO HOLD THE TROUGH AXIS BACK
A LITTLE FURTHER WEST VERSUS THE GFS. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TEMPS/POPS.
&&
.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND SEVEN FEET ON FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT THE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START
TO CALM DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING FROPA/MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE PGF WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF.
HOWEVER AS THE LARGE 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LATER NEXT WEEK
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IN TURN BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WHICH MAY START TO TIGHTEN UP THE PGF INCREASING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK POSSIBLE PRODUCING SCEC/MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ON AND AFTER WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 84 78 85 / 10 60 50 70
BROWNSVILLE 77 85 77 86 / 10 60 50 60
HARLINGEN 76 87 77 87 / 10 60 40 60
MCALLEN 77 88 77 87 / 10 60 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 88 74 87 / 20 50 40 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 83 79 84 / 10 50 50 70
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
912 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINY
AND BREEZY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE
WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER HOWEVER IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MOIST ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FOR WET AND
BLUSTERY WEATHER.
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME IN TWO WAVES.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND HEAVIER SHOT OF
RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
THE HEAVY RAINS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE FRONTAL FEATURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MINOR
RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR COOLER
SHOWERY WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET WHICH
MEANS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL FORM OVER THE NE PAC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK
DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLSIDE WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE RIDGE MAY LINGER OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. 33
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY FOR STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT. CONTD LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MTNS WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCD.
KSEA...ANTICIPATE CIGS IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE TIL 2100
UTC...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 2100 UTC. HOWEVER...
CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY RANGE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE SLY 9-13 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION ACROSS ALL WATERS. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY STRONGER
SYSTEM...WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FELTON/05
&&
.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE DETAILS BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THERE
WILL BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD. MODELS SHOW 5-10 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER A 48-HOUR
PERIOD ENDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN
APPEARS TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS A
RELATIVE LULL...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO HIGHLIGHT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
BY SATURDAY.
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 AM PDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will continue this morning then taper off this
afternoon. This break period will end on Friday as a deep fetch
of Pacific moisture feeds into the region promoting widespread
rain on Friday and into Saturday. Windy and gusty conditions will
also develop for a damp and blustery Halloween. Unsettled
conditions with occasional wet periods will continue into next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A shortwave trough will bring some light
precipitation to the Inland Northwest today. One area of light
precipitation is moving across extreme eastern WA and north ID as of
2 am. A second band is just barely holding together as it crosses
the deep basin but should regain some organization as it encounters
the rising terrain east of the basin. This feature will bring
another round of light precipitation to the eastern half of the
forecast area later this morning. The HRRR and NAM have tracked the
first band well so the near term forecast is leaning heavily toward
this guidance. Once the trough axis moves off to the east, scattered
rain showers will continue in moist upslope flow into the Idaho
Panhandle tonight while the remainder of the forecast area has a
brief respite from the wet weather.
Friday through Sunday...Wetter and windier conditions will begin on
Friday as fire hose of an atmospheric river is aimed at the Pacific
Northwest. Snow levels will remain high for Friday and Saturday
as the subtropical moisture tap pushes into the forecast
area. Persistent warm frontal precipitation will begin on Friday
and continue into Saturday. A cold front will bring an end to the
steady precip and usher in more scattered showers late Saturday.
The timing of this break in the wet weather will be critical to
trick-or-treaters who wish to remain dry...or at least not
drenched. for Sunday, the upper trough will slide over the region
with more scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers. Snow
levels could fall as low as 3000 ft with mountain passes
collecting some snowfall. More details on this to come in the next
day or two. Storm total rainfall from Friday through Sunday will
be in the one to two and a half inch range in the Idaho Panhandle
and Cascades with a general one third to one half inch in the
basin...except a tenth or two in the downslope deep basin area.
The rising terrain east of the basin will see a half inch to and
inch of rainfall. Winds will be a significant issue starting Friday and
lasting through Saturday with gust potential in the well mixed
warm sector potentially approaching 40 mph over exposed terrain.
Winds will remain blustery through Sunday night.
Monday through Thursday...The region will be under cool and unstable
northerly flow as the work week begins. This will keep a chance of
showers in the forecast but as the base of the trough digs south,
the tap into deep Pacific moisture will be lost. Valley rain and
mountain snow will be showery in nature with light amounts of
precipitation compared to the weekend system. Temperatures will be
near seasonal normals. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS:One band of rain showers is moving into the Idaho
panhandle and a second band is moving across the basin as of 11Z.
These two features will continue to bring IFR/LIFR conditions to
TAF sites other than KEAT and KLWS. Once the second band reaches the
ID border around 15Z...conditions will begin to improve with MVFR
conditions expected by 18Z. Gusty SW winds will develop this
afternoon, mixing out the low ceilings. Winds will subside after
03Z and MVFR ceilings may return. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 43 55 48 58 46 / 20 10 80 80 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 41 52 47 56 46 / 40 20 90 90 90 40
Pullman 56 43 55 47 57 46 / 20 20 80 80 80 50
Lewiston 60 46 61 52 62 50 / 20 20 80 70 70 50
Colville 52 39 52 42 54 42 / 80 10 80 80 80 20
Sandpoint 51 39 51 42 54 43 / 60 30 90 100 100 40
Kellogg 48 39 48 44 51 45 / 70 40 100 100 100 70
Moses Lake 61 44 65 48 62 47 / 40 10 50 40 50 10
Wenatchee 60 46 63 51 60 47 / 0 10 40 30 50 0
Omak 56 41 58 44 58 43 / 50 10 70 50 70 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
AT 3 PM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO DECORAH IOWA. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO A ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
PER HOUR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR WHICH KEPT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 30.03Z...THE
29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE 925 MB AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRAMATICALLY WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THERE IS A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING. THIS
AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LA CROSSE AREA. UPSTREAM OF
THIS CLEARING THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENT INVERSION
WHICH IS NEAR THE 875 MB. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THE 29.12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS INCLUDES THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLIMB INTO THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AN UNUSUALLY WARM AIR MASS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 16C RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...16 TO 19C ON TUESDAY...AND 15 TO 17C ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MIXING
THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTS IN MID AND UPPER
60 TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND LOWER TO POTENTIALLY
MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-94 MAY BE IMPACTED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO KEPT THOSE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO
5F WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED THAT SOME AREAS SOME OF INTERSTATE 94
COULD APPROACH RECORDS LEVELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES /IN THE MID
70S/ ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIX DOWN THE VERY WARM AIR FROM ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL WILL BE THE RULE AT KRST AND
FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL AT KLSE. CURRENT CEILINGS OF 700 FT AGL
AT KRST SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WHETHER OR NOT CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 1000 FT
AGL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS LESS CERTAIN GIVEN LATEST SPREAD
SHOWN BY FORECAST GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT
AGL FOR NOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN LATEST
TAFS. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
IN BR/HZ.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLSE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS