Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/28/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

935 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INITIAL PUSH OF RAIN WEAKENED AS LIFT DECREASED AND DRY AIR AT
SURFACE WON OUT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT TO
GRIDS...PUSHING BACK NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL ARRIVAL BY 3 TO 5
HOURS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AND THUS
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

WARM FRONT LIKELY WON`T REACH OUR REGION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT.
EVEN SO, WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONSIDERABLE MIXING, EXPECT
LOW TEMPS TO BE REACHED THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY. A SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL ALSO AID
IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING OUR REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS, SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INCOMING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO WIDE SPREAD RAIN, AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. STILL,
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS
(LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS), AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, THINK THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER INSTABILITY ONLY LATE IN THE DAY
(GENERALLY 21Z OR LATER). STILL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND IF ANY DEVELOP, COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN NJ
SHORE INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT MIXING TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN NJ SHORE, THOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WET WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE UP INTO ONTARIO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME TSTMS TO THE AREA WED NIGHT. MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE DONE
ACROSS THE REGION BY 12Z THU...BUT A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR N/W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. CHC POPS ARE IN
THE THU PERIOD N/W. TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT AND THU WILL BE RATHER
MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N/W TO THE LOW/MID 60S
S/E. THU WILL BE MILD TOO...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY AND BRING A COOLER AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S FOR THE MOST PART. THE DRY/COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...SO THE FAIR WEATHER FROM
SAT WILL CARRY INTO SUN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UP INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. WE HAVE USED THE WPC
POPS FOR THE FCST ATTM. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOME 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
INITIAL ROUND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST OF AREA HAS DISSIPATED,
AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL FOR MOST TAF SITES HAS BEEN
PUSHED BACK TO AFTER 08Z.

AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, LIGHT FOG COULD
DEVELOP, AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER. THUS, EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z. IN ADDITION, EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25KT POSSIBLE.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z, WHICH COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN RAIN/TSTMS AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARD DAWN.
THU/THU NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WINDS. FEW SHOWERS FAR N/W.
FRI THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE REST
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS ABOVE 25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE BAY BY LATE THIS EVENING. BY MID DAY TOMORROW, GALE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN
NJ SHORE. FURTHER SOUTH, WINDS COULD GUST NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 30 KT
THROUGH THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

GALE CONDITIONS DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST INTO FRI.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING LISTED BELOW. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

WITH THE FULL MOON TODAY, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL, IN SOME CASES JUST A FEW TENTHS
OF A FOOT BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST, DELAWARE BAY, AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.

THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES FOR TODAY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED,
WITH THE TIDAL GAUGES REACHING MINOR ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BELOW
MINOR IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUGH SURF AS WELL WITH OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS AT
BUOY 44009 AND 44065 FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 7-9 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING COMES WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES WEDNESDAY, WHICH OCCURS DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING ON THE OCEANFRONT AND LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON UP THE
DELAWARE BAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM DBOFS/NEOFS CONTINUES TO BE
CONSERVATIVE, INDICATING ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING AT REEDY POINT IN
THE DELAWARE BAY. TIDAL FORECASTS FROM THE ETSS GUIDANCE WAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH GAUGES ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND OCEANFRONT
REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL (EXCEPT AT ATLANTIC CITY)...BUT BARELY IN
MOST CASES. THE LINEAR REGRESSION GUIDANCE WE HAVE AVAILABLE IN
HOUSE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE NWP BASED GUIDANCE. WE WOULD
NEED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THESE PREDICTIONS
WERE EVEN CLOSE TO MODERATE AT CAPE MAY AND LEWES.

FELT THAT THE REGRESSION GUIDANCE WAS A BIT OVERDONE BUT PROVIDED
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR COASTAL ATLANTIC ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE DELAWARE BAY
FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE NWP GUIDANCE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE, WE STILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LOCAL
EFFECTS OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE TIDAL
FLOODING DUE TO THE WATER NOT DRAINING.

THE SETUP FOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE UNTIL AT LEAST ONCE
THE WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE HIGHER
OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES. ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
HERE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

410 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS OUR
PORTION OF THE NATION BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MS DELTA REGION WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST COINCIDENT
WITH A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT. AT THE
SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE QG FORCING ALOFT OVER TOP STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FEATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPGLIDE IS
BEING DRIVEN BY A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING 50
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
SOME OF THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN WITHIN CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE AL/MS COAST AND OFFSHORE
PLATFORMS WERE GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS...AND THESE GUSTS HAVE NOW
EXTENDED OVER TO BUOY 42039 SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. BUOY 42036 SOUTH
OF APALACHICOLA IS NOW GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE. SOME OF THESE
GUSTS WILL BE ENTERING OUR FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY
SOME FAIRLY ROUGH WEATHER NOT TOO FAR AWAY GEOGRAPHICALLY...
HOWEVER...THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM (OTHER THAN THE ELEVATED COASTAL
WATERS WINDS AND SEAS) WILL BEEN MOSTLY STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BE WEAKENING FAIRLY
DRAMATICALLY BY THE TIME THE SYNOPTIC ELEMENTS DRIVING THE WEATHER
FINALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THIS WHOLE SYSTEM IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD AS
IT RUNS INTO WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS MOST DEFINED BETWEEN 600-400MB AND
WAS SAMPLED WELL BY THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700MB. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PROTECT OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING IS LEAST CONFIDENT UP
TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES. THESE ZONES WILL BE ON THE VERY EDGE
OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY OUT FROM UNDER THE
PROTECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/SREF MEANS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
LYING RIGHT THROUGH THESE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NATURE COAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY
COLUMN IN THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THE MOISTURE
EVAPORATING INTO THIS LAYER WILL ERODE THE DRIER AIR...AND THE
BETTER SYNOPTICS FOR LIFT WILL BE CREEPING SLOWLY CLOSER AND
CLOSER.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... TONIGHT...THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TO MOVE FURTHER EAST...AT THE SAME
TIME...THE VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING THE LOW IS
UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/GA. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR
FORECAST? WITH WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT FALLS/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE EFFICIENCY OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD LESSEN...ALONG WITH
THE SIZE OF THE SWATH OF BEST LIFT. THE WAY ALL OF THIS IS SETTING
UP...WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS REMAINING LIFT ALOFT TO STAY
WEST/NW OF A GOOD PORTION OF OUR ZONES...KEEPING THE FORECAST
MAINLY DRY. ONCE AGAIN THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE. A LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWN BY ALL THE GUIDANCE WILL EXTEND OVERNIGHT
FROM THE LOW CENTER NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ADEQUATE UPGLIDE BETWEEN THE 295-315K
SURFACES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST "SHOWER ACTIVITY" INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. WILL STILL ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAINFALL STAYS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THAT THE SHOWERS THAT DO ARRIVE INTO
LEVY/CITRUS ARE GENERALLY NOT ON THE HEAVY SIDE.

THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL STAY IN THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

THE WEAKENING LEFTOVER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINING
ATMOSPHERIC PUSH AND LESSENING INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST TO
FINALLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED...THAT THE DEFINITION OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY LATE TOMORROW COMPARED TO
ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE. EACH GUIDANCE MEMBER HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING ITS TAKE ON THE SITUATION FOR TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS
AND SREF. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
ALL THE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO ITS SOLUTION OF A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING STRONGER UPGLIDE/WAA INTO
THE NATURE COAST. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-4
DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 1-2" QPF AMOUNTS
BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. WE DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THE QPF
BREAKDOWN FOR THE ECMWF BETWEEN STABLE AND PARAMETERIZED PRECIP IN
OUR SYSTEMS LIKE WE DO FOR MANY OF THE NCEP MODELS...HOWEVER WOULD
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF QPF IS COMING
FROM THE MODEL PHYSICS ITSELF OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. IF
IT WAS COMING FROM THE STABLE SIDE OF THE PICTURE...THEN MIGHT BE
MORE WILLING TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINLY STILL PRESENT...WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NATURE COAST...BUT FOR LIGHTER
AMOUNTS...AND THEN TAPER POPS DOWN THE FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ONE TRAVELS THROUGH THE PENINSULA. THE TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR TUESDAY...BUT WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL HOLD THINGS IN THE 80S. IF MORE
BREAKS OF SUN ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING TIMES OF PEAK
HEATING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THEN WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STATIONS APPROACHING 90.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A SHARP U/L RIDGE THROUGH THE U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.

SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FILL
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG S/W DISTURBANCE WILL DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE U/L RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
INDUCE A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ABSORB REMNANT U/L ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH U/L SUPPORT
WILL BE RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE CAPE COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL RUN IN THE LOWER 80S
NORTH AND CENTRAL TO THE MID 80S SOUTH...WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO WINDS OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS A STRONG SYSTEM CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND U/L ENERGY CUTS OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...ROTATING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
80S. THE CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT STRONG UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S. WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS IN PHASE CARVING OUT
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT THE GUSTS WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARD
SUNSET. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWER CHANCE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KTPA/KPIE
AND KSRQ.

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING ON TUESDAY...
AND THEN PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ELEVATED WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 86 75 84 / 20 50 50 40
FMY 72 87 75 85 / 20 20 30 50
GIF 70 87 73 85 / 10 30 30 50
SRQ 73 84 75 83 / 20 50 50 50
BKV 71 85 73 84 / 20 50 50 40
SPG 73 85 75 84 / 20 50 50 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...OGLESBY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1215 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS OUR
PORTION OF THE NATION BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MS DELTA REGION WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST COINCIDENT
WITH A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT. AT THE
SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE QG FORCING ALOFT OVER TOP STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FEATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPGLIDE IS
BEING DRIVEN BY A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING 50
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
SOME OF THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN WITHIN CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE AL/MS COAST AND OFFSHORE
PLATFORMS HAVE ROUTINELY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
OBVIOUSLY SOME FAIRLY ROUGH WEATHER NOT TOO FAR AWAY
GEOGRAPHICALLY...HOWEVER...THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEEN
MOSTLY STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND BE WEAKENING FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY BY THE TIME THE
SYNOPTIC ELEMENTS DRIVING THE WEATHER FINALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THIS WHOLE SYSTEM IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD IT
IS RUNS INTO WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS MOST DEFINED BETWEEN 600-400MB AND
WAS SAMPLED WELL BY THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700MB. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PROTECT OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH BELOW THE RIDGE THAT WE LIKELY WILL SEE
A FEW SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT MOST PLACES SPOTS (OVER
LAND) SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING IS LEAST CONFIDENT
UP TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES. THESE ZONES WILL BE ON THE VERY
EDGE OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY OUT FROM
UNDER THE PROTECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF MEANS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP LYING RIGHT THROUGH THESE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AM GROWING CONCERNED THAT THE
CURRENT POPS AFTER 20-21Z NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE ARE TOO LOW...AND
WILL LIKELY BE BUMPING THESE VALUES UP WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE (IF NOT BEFORE). ELSEWHERE...THE 20% POP IN THE GRIDS
AFTER 18-19Z SEEMS REASONABLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE
EXPECT COVERAGE OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE ON MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AT THE SAME TIME...THE VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORTING THE LOW IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/GA.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST? WITH WEAKENING SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR LIFT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE
EFFICIENTLY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
LESSEN...ALONG WITH THE SIZE OF THE SWATH OF BEST LIFT. THE WAY
ITS ALL SETTING UP...WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS REMAINING LIFT
ALOFT TO STAY WEST/NW OF A GOOD PORTION OF OUR ZONES...KEEPING THE
FORECAST MAINLY DRY. ONCE AGAIN THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE. A LOW
LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWN BY ALL THE GUIDANCE WILL EXTEND
OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOW CENTER NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND REGION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ADEQUATE UPGLIDE BETWEEN THE
295-315K SURFACES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST "SHOWER ACTIVITY" INTO OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WILL STILL ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAINFALL
STAYS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THAT THE SHOWERS THAT DO ARRIVE INTO
LEVY/CITRUS ARE GENERALLY NOT ON THE HEAVY SIDE. THE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERNLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL STAY IN THE 70S FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AND STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE WEAKENING LEFTOVER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINING
ATMOSPHERIC PUSH AND LESSENING INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST TO
FINALLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED...THAT THE DEFINITION OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY THAT TIME COMPARED TO ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE. EACH GUIDANCE MEMBER HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING ITS TAKE ON THE SITUATION FOR TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS AND
SREF. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN ALL
THE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO ITS SOLUTION OF A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING STRONGER UPGLIDE WAA INTO THE NATURE
COAST. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-4 DURING
THE DAY...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 1-2" QPF AMOUNTS BEING
PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. WE DO NOT HAVE THE QPF BREAKDOWN FOR THE
ECMWF BETWEEN STABLE AND PARAMETERIZED PRECIP IN OUR SYSTEMS LIKE
WE DO FOR MANY OF THE NCEP MODELS...HOWEVER WOULD BE INTERESTING
TO SEE IF THE MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF QPF IS COMING FROM THE MODEL
PHYSICS ITSELF OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. IF IT WAS COMING
FROM THE STABLE SIDE OF THE PICTURE...THEN MIGHT BE MORE WILLING
TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINLY
STILL PRESENT...WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NATURE COAST...BUT FOR LIGHTER AMOUNTS...AND THEN
TAPER POPS DOWN THE FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ONE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE PENINSULA. THE TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR TUESDAY...BUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WILL HOLD THINGS IN THE 80S. IF MORE BREAKS OF SUN ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING TIMES OF PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STATIONS
APPROACHING 90.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE GUSTS WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVENING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN EXPANSION OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE COAST MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 72 86 73 / 20 20 40 50
FMY 88 70 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
GIF 86 69 87 71 / 20 10 30 30
SRQ 87 71 86 74 / 20 20 30 50
BKV 87 70 86 71 / 20 10 40 50
SPG 86 74 85 74 / 20 20 40 50

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1005 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING RAOBS SHOW A WELL CAPPED AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION H85-H60 LYR WITH PWAT VALUES JUST ABV
1.0". RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST THRU THE FL STRAITS GENERATING A 15-20KT E/SE FLOW
THRU 10KFT...TAPPING AN AIRMASS WITH MEAN RH VALUES ARND 60PCT THRU
THE LYR. FURTHER WEST...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LWR MS
VALLEY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING S INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE RIDGE BLOCKS OUT ANY EWD ESCAPE
ROUTE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FCST AS THE DEEP E/SE FLOW WILL ALLOW A FEW
SHRAS TO DVLP UNDER THE CAP IN THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...CAP IS
TOO DEEP AND TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DVLP.
LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL GIVEN THE UPSTREAM LOW LVL MOISTURE
FIELD...QPF BLO 0.10". SAME SOURCE REGION AS IN RECENT DAYS...MAX
TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUITE: L/M80S AREAWIDE.

NEAR DROWNINGS WERE REPORTED IN THE OCEAN OFF BREVARD COUNTY
YESTERDAY. ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.

.AVIATION...THRU 27/12Z.
SFC WNDS: THRU 27/00Z...E/SE 8-12KTS WITH OCNL SFC G20KTS CSTL
SITES. BTWN 27/00Z-27/03Z...BCMG E/SE 4-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/00Z...SLGT CHC BRIEF MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES.
AFT 27/00Z...SLGT CHC BRIEF MVFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES.

.MARINE...

RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THRU THE FL STRAITS
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LCL DATA
BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SHOWING WINDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH SEAS
4-6FT. BORDERLINE SCA CONDS PSBL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GOMEX. WILL INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH TO MATCH OFFSHORE
BUOY OBS...BUT COASTAL SFC OBS DO NOT SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

800 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINY CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISPLAY AREAS OF RAIN MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
TODAY. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE
WITH H5 RIDGING TODAY. EXPECT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE H5 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS
TODAY BECOMING CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANGE DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE RIDGE
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT IT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECASTED LESS OF A SHOWER CHANCE
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING AND DIMINISHED
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY TOTAL RAINFALL TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 0.5 TO 1.5 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS 1 TO
1.5 OF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM HAD SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO NEAR -3
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTED H85
WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS INDICATED LESS SHEAR
COMPARED TO THE NAM. WE HAVE INCLUDED POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH HIGH SHEAR SUPPORTS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM TUESDAY
BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST WEDGE PATTERN. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY IN AN ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 10 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND 20 PERCENT
SUNDAY. THE MOS INDICATES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT AGS/DNL MAY LIFT AROUND 15Z AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH. NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE AROUND
10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES TODAY WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 12 TO 17
KNOTS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS LIGHT RAIN HELPS TO COOL
THE LOWER LEVELS. THE HRRR SHOWS RAIN SHIFTING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE RAIN IN TAFS OVERNIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND WEDGE
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

537 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT THINK THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LAST
ONLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS EASTERLY WINDS PUSH
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND SUNRISE WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND WEDGE
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

951 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.UPDATE...WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA NOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES
BRINGING THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL FOG...WITH WINDS LIGHT AND
SOILS SATURATED. HAVE THUS BROUGHT PATCHY FOG IN SOONER IN LATEST
UPDATE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH MAYBE JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS COMBO OF GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES LATER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF EASTWARD ADVANCING STRATOCU HAS NOW REACHED
OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SABINE. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER GRIDS
WITH THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLEARING.
UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE WET AND
WINDY WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE DEPARTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD
SUNRISE WED. LIGHT SW WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
RETURN WARMING THE TEMPS BACK INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS ACADIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE
IN TEMP IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SW STATES
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG WITH GULF AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE BECOMES CLOSER. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AT
THIS TIME, BUT ENOUGH EXISTS TO PRODUCE SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS
AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ON THE STRONGER SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT AND HOW FAST
IT DEPARTS THE REGION VARIES IN THE MODELS, BUT A WET HALLOWEEN
MAY OCCUR.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN INTO LATE WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM SW TO NW THURSDAY,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND BECOME WEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 83 58 79 / 0 0 10 10
LCH 61 83 61 81 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 61 82 64 81 / 0 0 10 20
BPT 62 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

734 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH MAYBE JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS COMBO OF GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS
AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES LATER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 83 58 79 / 0 0 10 10
LCH 61 83 61 81 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 61 82 64 81 / 0 0 10 20
BPT 62 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

639 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF EASTWARD ADVANCING STRATOCU HAS NOW REACHED
OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SABINE. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER GRIDS
WITH THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLEARING.
UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 83 58 79 / 0 0 10 10
LCH 61 83 61 81 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 61 82 64 81 / 0 0 10 20
BPT 62 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

913 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 9PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH
BAND OF RAIN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED BACK ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND WESTERN VIRGINIA. THIS LINES UP NICELY WITH THE 18Z
AND 23Z HRRR. HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING OUT POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WAS NOT CONVINCED TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS THAT MUCH.

00Z RAOB ALONG WITH TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONGER TEMPERATURE
INVERSION THAN WAS PROJECTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE...BUT NOT ELIMINATE...THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OUT OF THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY AREA OF FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES. DID MAKE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND FORECAST BLENDING IN NEWEST RUNS OF THE
NAM AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGE TO WIND ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA. A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS GET ABSORBED BY A VERY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK.

DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES SUGGEST THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAXIMA MAY WELL APPROACH 60-70 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FAVOR INVERSION HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RIDGETOPS
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION DRAG WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND GUSTS. EVEN BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL...NAM
CONUS NEST PLOTS AND HRRR VALUES SUGGEST 45-55 KTS OF WIND GUST
POTENTIAL IN CHESTNUT/LAUREL RIDGES AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN
WAVE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES. DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TOPOGRAPHY RELATIVE TO THE FLOW...THIS FAVORS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL PRIMARILY IN FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA COUNTY. THE
POTENTIAL IS A BIT LESS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND. THAT
SAID...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE FORECAST...A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.

AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE...MOUNTAIN WAVE GUST POTENTIAL DECREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FLOW DIRECTION CHANGES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DEEPER STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN SHADOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES TO BE
ERADICATED AS DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING JET STREAK
AND DIFFERENTIAL PVA COUPLED WITH SKINNY CAPE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD A DECENT LINE FORM
ALONG THE FRONT...GIVEN THE MOMENTUM IN THE COLUMN...A SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
HAS OUTLINED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A MARGINAL RISK...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...THIS SEEMS A PRAGMATIC APPROACH.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER DO NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY WELL RISE
DUE TO INCREASING MIXING...AND CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SPOTS MAY WELL TOUCH 70F
BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS OVERHEAD LATER IN
THE WEEK. FRIES

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
NECESSITATING THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE POPS UNTIL ITS EXIT.

MORE IMPORTANTLY...PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT...WHICH LEADS TO CONCERN FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS DEEP MIXING LAYER WITH WIND AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION
APPROACHING 40-45KTS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF THIS
WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...HAVE OPTED TO MENTION THE
THREAT IN THE HWO.

ONCE THE SHOWERS END THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT A DRY REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY PIVOT TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...RETURNING THE REGION
TO COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A VARIABLE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST IS
TIMED TO DETERIORATE CONDITIONS WITH RAIN BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WOULD AGAIN DRY THE PROGNOSIS EARLY IN THE NEW WORK-WEEK.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF WPC AND
GFSMOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY FEATURES CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS
AT...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE
INTO EARLY MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH LIGHT RAIN.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOR KDUJ AND
KFKL. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z RAOB SHOWS WINDS UNDER 30KTS UNDER THE
INVERSION WITH TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 850MB. WITH THIS IN MIND
HAVE INCLUDED INCREASING SURFACE WIND GUSTS BUT NO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 35KTS STILL
POSSIBLE AT KLBE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH DOWNSLOPING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINING GUSTS OVER
25KTS. MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GENERAL VFR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
COLD FRONT WITH RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ073>076.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

743 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...HAVE SLIGHTLY REDUCED POPS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS WITH MOST RADAR ECHOES NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND...BUT THEN INCREASED POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME BRIEF BANDING OF RAINFALL SHOWN IN MODEL FORECASTS. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER EXPANDED IN COVERAGE. THAT SCENARIO WAS EXPLAINED WELL
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHICH FOLLOWS BELOW.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
NECESSITATING THE INCLUSION OF CHANCE POPS UNTIL ITS EXIT.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF WPC AND
GFSMOS GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY FEATURES CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS
AT...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE
INTO EARLY MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH LIGHT RAIN.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOR KDUJ AND
KFKL. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ROAB SHOWS WINDS UNDER 30KTS UNDER THE
INVERSION WITH TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 850MB. WITH THIS IN MIND
HAVE INCLUDED INCREASING SURFACE WIND GUSTS BUT NO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 35KTS
STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH DOWNSLOPING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ073>076.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1201 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.AVIATION...

STEADY NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAINFALL AND AN ACCOMPANYING RAPID
REDUCTION IN CEILING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT THE ONSET WILL A STEADY DROP INTO IFR
THEREAFTER. GREATEST WINDOW FOR CONDITIONS TO REACH LIFR OCCURS MID-
LATE MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. FIRM EASTERLY FLOWWILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES...GRADUALLY VEERING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON...REMAINING GUSTY INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE..

FOR DTW...EXISTING EASTERLY WIND WILL HOLD AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE VEERING TO SE /130-140 DEGREES/
AROUND DAYBREAK. GUST POTENTIAL LARELY REMAINING AT/BELOW 25 KTS
THROUGH THIS TIME...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED CROSSWIND
THRESHOLDS AT THESE WIND DIRECTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN IFR
CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD FROM 110 TO 140 DEGREES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 200 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

HIGH CONTINUITY WITHIN THE NWP EXISTS THAT A COMPLEX WAVE MERGER
EVENT WILL COMMENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
FIRST PHASE OF THE WAVE MERGER/INTERACTION IS THE RAPID SURGE IN
REMNANT HURRICANE PATRICIA MOISTURE DUE NORTHWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. BULK ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT A WAVE SEPARATION
WILL EXIST BETWEEN THIS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE/PV ANOMALY AND THE MORE
DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALBERTA.
THERE IS IMPORTANCE IN THIS INFORMATION ON WAVE SEPARATION AS IT
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SLUG OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
PROGRESSING AND NOT STALL OUT.

IF THERE HAS BEEN ONE NOTABLE TREND IT HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FEED
WILL MAINTAIN A 12 KFT LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY STRAY
CHANCES AT THE FRONT END/EARLY EVENING. MUCH OF THE DETERMINISTIC
SUITE AND CAMS INCLUDING SOME SUPPORT FROM HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY
SUPPORTS HOLDING OFF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF M 59 UNTIL 4Z THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...THE NARRATIVE BECOMES INCREASING WIDESPREAD
RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY EFFICIENT
RESPONSE OF INCREASING MIDLEVEL SHEARING DEFORMATION THAT WILL FEAST
ON THE AMOUNT OF REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...EFFECTIVLY WRINGING OUT
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE ARE TWO SURGES OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES...THE FIRST LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL
AREAS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06-09Z...THE SECOND ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA (WAYNE/MONROE/MACOMB/ST CLAIR/OAKLAND
COUNTIES) BETWEEN 09-12Z. AGAIN...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12 Z OF .70 TO .80 OF AN INCH. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SECOND SURGE...HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE IRISH HILLS/GLACIAL TERRAIN. OVERALL...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER REMAINS LOW...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STABLE ONE THROUGH 10 KFT AGL.

LONG TERM...

NWP IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN MYRIAD MOVING PARTS INVOLVED IN A
DYNAMIC SCENARIO THAT WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY,
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CARRYOVER OF TONIGHT`S
WEATHER. VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, BUT IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST ALONG WITH THE REST OF
THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING. THE RAIN WILL MAINTAIN ITS
OVERNIGHT CHARACTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY WIND
DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12-15Z.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. WATER VAPOR REVEALS A PLETHORA OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FROM MONTANA TO TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH, A WELL-
DEFINED PV RIBBON IS DIVING SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES EAST WED
MORNING, SOME CONSOLIDATION OF SAID DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR, PARTICULARLY ABOVE 500MB. THE FLOW AROUND THE ASSOCIATED
CONSOLIDATED H4-H3 PV ANOMALY WILL DRAW IN PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL SPEND THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITHIN A DRY SLOT, ALBEIT NOT A CLASSIC ONE, AS A RESULT. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ALONG THE CONVERGENT LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ARE A
POSSIBILITY, AND THESE COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. THIS THREAT, IF IT DEVELOPS, WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT AND FRONTAL-TYPE FORCING
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST. SEEING AS HOW THE DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, ELEVATED COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE
DURING PEAK HEATING WILL LEND ITSELF AT LEAST TO SOME AFTERNOON
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IF NOT LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS GIVEN SUFFICIENT
LINGERING MOISTURE DEPTH.

BY THIS TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY DYNAMIC HIGH-LATITUDE WAVE
WILL BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION AND WILL BE
SLAMMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL TAKE ON
AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT, FORCING THE UPPER JET TO TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS AT 21Z WED TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES 12Z THURS. ELEVATED FGEN PROCESSES WILL AID THE
PRODUCTION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION AS THIS OCCURS,
AND THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COLD FRONT WILL UNDERGO STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS THE JET-FRONT COUPLET MATURES. ALTHOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT IS NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE AS
FAR AS AUTUMN COLD FRONTS GO, STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AT ALL LEVELS
WILL STILL CAUSE IT TO PACK A PUNCH AS IT RACES WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS
SE MICHIGAN 06-09Z.

COLD FROPA WILL REPRESENT THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER END WINDS.
FIRST, THERE IS THE FRONT ITSELF. WHILE NOT EXHIBITING CLASSIC
DENSITY CURRENT CHARACTERISTICS, INSTABILITY IN THE NOSE OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH VIGOROUS
MIXING AND BRIEF HIT OF WIND GUSTS AROUND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN
FACT, NAM12 DEPICTIONS OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ON THE 284K
SURFACE SUGGEST 38-44KTS IS ACHIEVABLE. THIS REPRESENTS A WINDOW FOR
A POTENTIAL SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY BETWEEN ABOUT 05Z-10Z THURSDAY
MORNING. SECOND, DEEP AND STRONG FRONTAL FORCING WILL CAUSE A LINE
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LIKEWISE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN
SIMILARLY STRONG WINDS.

COLD ADVECTION WILL FORCE STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BUT A LACK OF ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL REALLY LIMIT POTENTIAL IN THIS OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SETUP.
FURTHER, THE SLOWLY DEEPENING NATURE OF THE NOW-DISTANT SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE JUST A MINIMAL ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WIND
GUSTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT, AFTER AN INITIAL POP OF WINDS WITH
FROPA, POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON THURSDAY TOP OUT BELOW THE 38KT/45MPH
WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION,
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WILL BE MUTED. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE WITH MID 40S ALONG THE GLACIAL RIDGE AND UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AS THE STRONG LOW PULLS AWAY SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT LATE FALL DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS AROUND 50. PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THANKS TO A STRONG PACIFIC JET COMING ASHORE. THIS FLOW
WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...WITH 12Z SUITE
CONTINUING TO ZIP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US. RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FORMER FEATURE AND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE
LOCALLY SATURDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW
QUICKLY THE SOUTHWEST US CUTOFF EJECTS...BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR
NOW WILL BE REFINED IN THE FUTURE. A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WE TURN THE PAGE TO NOVEMBER DUE TO LACK OF
COLD AIR WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

MARINE...

A STRENGTHENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CANADA BRINGING A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST GALES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THIS GALE EVENT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING GALES...AND LOCALLY STRONG GALES...TO
AREA WATERS. FOR AREAS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE GALES
TONIGHT....GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS SECOND GALE EVENT.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AROUND 8 TO 11 FEET FOR BOTH
EVENTS. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED AREAS...MAINLY THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.

GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LHZ421-
422.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-441>443-
464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LCZ460.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEZ444.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

732 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.AVIATION...

PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TRACK TO EXPAND ACROSS SE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. UPSTREAM RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS POINT TOWARD AN
ONSET OF RAPIDLY LOWER CEILINGS IN DEVELOPING RAINFALL 02Z-04Z DTW
CORRIDOR SPREADING NORTHWARD TO MBS/FNT BY 07Z-08Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS STEADY MODERATE RAIN IMPACTS ALL
TERMINALS RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. GREATEST WINDOW FOR
CONDITIONS TO REACH LIFR OCCURS MID-LATE MORNING. LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS.
FIRM EASTERLY FLOW LATE THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES...GRADUALLY VEERING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD FROM 110 TO 140 DEGREES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* LOW TO MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 200 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.

GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ421-422.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443-
464.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LCZ460.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ444.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

724 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SASK/MANITOBA INTO THE WRN AND SCNTRL PLAINS
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE HAS BUILT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO/WRN
QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/SCNTRL PLAINS WHICH LED TO SOME
UPSLOPE STRATUS/FOG AT KSAW AND KCMX EARLIER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
INTO WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ERN UPR
MI.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTING TOWARD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AS A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER SRN SASK DROPS INTO SRN MANITOBA
AND NORTH DAKOTA. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO LIFT TO SE WI BY 12Z
WED. INCREASING SSE 800-700 MB FLOW OF 35-50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TOWARD UPPER MI (PWAT TO AROUND 1.0
INCH) AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONV WILL
ALLOW RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WED. IN TURN...AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...SFC LOW OF 995-1000MB OVER SRN WI WED MORNING
WILL DEEPEN NEAR 985 MB OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED. DIMINISHING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC-850 MB LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SPREADS IN FM THE S-SE IN WAKE OF
INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING. AS RAIN
DIMINISHES FROM SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON STRATUS WILL LOWER
AND FOG MAY FORM ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-SE FLOW
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
N UPPER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW SET UP OVER S MN.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL MAINLY STAY AS RAIN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE WARMER TREND OF 850MB TEMPS
CONTINUES...STARTING OUT AROUND 0C OVER THE FAR W AT 00Z THURSDAY
AND BOTTOMING OUT BY 12Z THURSDAY IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE WITH SFC
TEMPS NEAR OR STILL ABOVE FREEZING. COOLER AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -
3 TO -5C SLIDE IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING INWILL BE AS THE
BULK OF PRECIP PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.

ALONG WITH THE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. WITH RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE SFC LOW
THURSDAY...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINUSLA AND E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO THE TERRAIN AND THE
FACT THAT IT/S CLOSER TO THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISESMOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 900MB WINDS OF 40-45KTS...EXPECT NEAR SFC WINDS
OF 30-40KTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH W TO E THURSDAY EVENING.

LOOK FOR THE SFC RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MN AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
MO AND THE TN VALLEY AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12-18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPORARY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING.

JUST HOW FAST WAA PRECIP GETS INTO THE CWA IS IN QUESTION SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER TO BRING BACK PRECIP AT LEAST WITH THE
27/00Z RUN INDICATING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEARING IN THE BROAD TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. EITHER
WAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 0-6C AND SFC TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...EXPECT LIQUID PRECIP INSTEAD OF FROZEN. THE SFC LOW
HANGING OUT OVER W CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER THE N PLAINS MONDAY AS SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF N
AMERICA. EXPECT THE S LOW TO EJECT NE INTO ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

DESPITE THICKENING MID/HI CLDS AHEAD OF A LO PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD
THE GREAT LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TNGT EVEN AFTER SOME -RA ARRIVES FM THE SW.
BUT AS THE ESE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO PRES TAPS MOISTER AIR AND
FALLING RA MOISTENS THE LLVLS...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORE QUICKLY TO
MVFR THEN IFR AND LIFR. THESE AUSTERE CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THRU THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT SAW
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LO PRES
AND WSHFT TOWARD THE WSW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRENGTHING LOW
LIFTING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO
JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE
15-25KT RANGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30KT LATE
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE FLOW. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED NIGHT
THRU THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO NEAR 45KT OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE BY THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS INTO SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ251-267.

GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ248>250-265-266.

GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ240>245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

423 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CANADA TROF ANCHORED BY A DEEP MID LEVEL
LOW CENTERED JUST N OF HUDSON BAY. WITHIN THE TROF...110KT UPPER JET
EXTENDS FROM NE MN TO NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...CORRESPONDING FGEN IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS...AND SHORTWAVE HAVE SUPPORTED SHRA FROM NW WI E ACROSS UPPER
MI TODAY...THOUGH SHRA HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF
THE U.P. OTHERWISE...IT`S BEEN A CLOUDY DAY. HOWEVER...RECENTLY MID
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW
LEADING TO SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT THERE. TEMPS ARE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT ARE NEARING 50F ON THE KEWEENAW
AND HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S IN MENOMINEE COUNTY.

WITH FORCING THAT HAS GENERATED THE SHRA TODAY BREAKING DOWN THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHRA AS MODELS INDICATE.
HOWEVER...ONGOING WAA AHEAD OF TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAY
WORK TO GENERATE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ALONG THE CURRENT PCPN
GENERATION ZONE THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NE AS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY
LOOPS ACROSS NW WI TO AROUND KDLH. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...LINGERED SOME SCHC POPS W INTO PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER
THRU THE EVENING.

TROF MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT SHIFTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS
TUE. AHEAD OF THE TROF...MODELS SHOW BETTER FOCUS OF WAA SHIFTING TO
THE NW OF UPPER MI. END RESULT WILL BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STEADY RAIN WEDNESDAY THEN
COOLER/BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN A STRONG SFC HIGH
PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER TO
NE...AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY /REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICA/. WILL
BE STARTING OUT WITH A STRONG S-SE PUSH OF AIR ON 850MB WINDS OF 25-
40KTS OVERHEAD. THESE 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE 40KTS
CWA WIDE OVERNIGHT. THE CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONVERGE AND STRETCH FROM MANITOBA TO IL/IN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEADY RAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP TOTALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
TOTAL AROUND OR OVER 0.5IN.

THE SFC LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO NEAR 990MB EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS UPPER MI/N LAKE MI...AND AROUND 980MB ACROSS N OR NE LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSES...EXPECT STRONGER W-NW WINDS TO PUSH IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND
3C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 0 TO -5C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
CONSENSUS...WITH THE COLD AIR IS TO HAVE IT PUSH MAINLY INLAND OR S
OF THE CWA. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OR AMOUNTS OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW...AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE HANDLING OF THE 500MB LOW AS IT SINKS IN BEHIND
THE SFC LOW. STILL...IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY WITH GALES
LIKELY CENTRAL AND E OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST S WITH THE LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI
AND S WI AT 06Z THURSDAY. BY CONTRAST...THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE LOW OVER UPPER MI. WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THIS FALLS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
NOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASES AT THE TAIL END OF THE MOISTURE AS IT
DEPARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS AND COOLER AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGING -4 TO -5C WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW IF SFC TEMPS WERE
JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FOR HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION FRIDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR E FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS WE RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND NEARING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W AND CENTRAL CANADA. WILL BE HARD TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /WITH THE
BEST CHANCE MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE NEARBY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

AREA OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT KIWD/KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN...BUT
SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. OBS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY
SPORADIC MVFR CIGS WITH THE SHRA. AS WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT UPSLOPE
SE THIS AFTN AT KSAW...MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING AT THAT
TERMINAL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO FALL TOWARD IFR THIS EVENING.
WHILE WIND DIRECTION AT KIWD IS NOT ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR LWR
CIGS...PROXIMITY OF LWR CIGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR. KCMX WILL REMAIN N OF THE -SHRA/LOWER CLOUDS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KCMX LATER TONIGHT AS A LIGHT ESE WIND
MAY ADVECT MOISTURE/LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD THAT TERMINAL. WHILE
KCMX/KIWD WILL BE VFR TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...KSAW MAY HAVE MVFR
VIS IN FOG UNTIL MID MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT WILL START THE FCST PERIOD TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST
UP TOWARD 20KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE
UPPER LAKES WED...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
WILL THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTN...
INCREASING FURTHER TO 20-30KT TUE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TUE
NIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE
FLOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUE NIGHT OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CARIBOU ISLAND/WHITEFISH POINT AREA. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED.
NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU NIGHT/FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

420 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH OVERALL LOOK TO PATTERN THIS WEEK. MAIN
FEATURE IS DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID CONUS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MERGE TOGETHER. LARGER SCALE
TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PHASES WITH TROUGH SLIDING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE FM ONTARIO TO THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES TO EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BROAD SFC TROUGHING
FORMS FM CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY AS SFC HIGH IS STILL IN VCNTY
ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BUT CLOUDY SKIES FM MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

ONCE THE SFC-H85 RIDGE MOVES EAST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE-S
WHICH WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TIED TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA /PWATS AT 00Z MONDAY
OVER 2.0 INCHES ALONG GULF COAST WHICH IS OVER 225 PCT OF NORMAL/
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PWATS ADVECTING INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END UP PUSHING OVER 1 INCHES.
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH RESULTS IN SWATH OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY FAR...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS
WELL TO THE EAST AIMED MORE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BUT STILL
THINK BTWN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENING SFC
LOW...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN.
COMPLEX INTERACTIONS STILL HAVE TO OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM TO COME
TOGETHER...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW APPEARS MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC AS IT DEEPENS FM 995-1000MB AT 06Z
ON WEDNESDAY OVER IA/IL TO 978-982MB AT 06Z THURSDAY BTWN LK
SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. EXACT TRACK OF LOW AND RATE OF DEEPENING
QUITE UNCERTAIN STILL AND THIS WILL HAVE DIRECT AFFECT ON STRENGTH
OF WINDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY WOULD
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY NEAR LK MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN CWA WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF LK SUPERIOR. LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO SORT
OUT THESE DETAILS AND WHETHER ANY WIND HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. GALES
A GOOD BET OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.

ATTN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AS THE SFC LOW OCCLUDES NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR AROUND 980MB BUT UPPER LOW REMAINS STRONG AS IT CROSSES
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LOT OF MOISTURE TO H7 AND LOOKING AT H85-H7
THETA-E THERE IS HINT OF TROWAL CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR AND THE FAVORABLE LARGER
SCALE FORCING SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WRAPS INTO REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LOWEST H85 TEMPS STAY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. GFS
AND NAM COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -4C OR -5C
COMPARED TO -2C OR -3C. FIGURING PTYPE WOULD BE MINIMAL ISSUE IF
THIS WAS JUST PURE LAKE EFFECT AS H85 TEMPS OF EVEN -5C ARE
BORDERLINE WITH WATER TEMPS NOW AROUND 8C. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS
AMPLE LIFT/MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER AREA LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...EVEN THESE MARGINALLY COOL H85 TEMPS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND COULD ALSO LEAD TO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER
WEST HALF INTERIOR. EVEN ELSEWHERE WHERE LAKE EFFECT IS AT A
MINIMUM...WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 40 NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ONLY REACH LOW-MID
40S FARTHER INLAND AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

SHOULD SEE TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT LATE DAY THURSDAY OVER
WEST THEN OVER REST OF LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE DEPART EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. CYCLONIC NW
WINDS IN BLYR WITH MOISTURE UP TO H8 AND H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C
SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. SFC
RIDGE MOVING ON FRIDAY WILL DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BELOW THE INVERSION. KEPT SMALL
CHANCES OVER EASTERN CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS A SHADE WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

USED CONSENSUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS STILL MORE WET THAN THE ECMWF
OR GEM-NH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LGT RAIN SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. TIMING AND EXTENT OF POPS WILL GET REFINED THROUGH THE WEEK
AS PATTERN DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT POPS WILL BE NEEDED ALL WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL SHOW SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER LATE WEEK CHILL...BUT
SHOULD END UP AROUND NORMAL FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

137 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY AND ERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW
FLOW THROUGH NRN MN UPPER MI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SE SD
INTO SRN MN WHILE HIGH PRES DOMINATED THE ERN LAKES. THE COMBINATION
OF FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850-700 MB FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 110 KNOT 250-300 MB JET THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM E CNTRL MN INTO NW WI. WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN TO THE NE HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED PREVIOUS MDLS FCSTS.

TODAY...TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR
CNTRL AND EAST UPPER MI. AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...PER UPSTREAM OBS. RADAR
TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND TO THE ENE THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN OVER
MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z...EXCEPT THE NRN KEWEENAW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONGER 850-600 MB
FGEN AND RAIN WILL SPREAD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF M-28. FARTHER SOUTH...RAIN REMAINS LIKELY. OVERALL PCPN
SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN MODEST GENERALLY FROM 0.10-0.33...GREATEST NEAR
US-2.

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KTS INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO GALES WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT. WITH
CAA BRINGING DEEP MIXING...THE GALES MAY REACH 40 KNOTS OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. EXPECT THE GALES TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
25 KNOTS BY FRI AFTERNOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

738 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

AS AN AREA OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
IMPACT IWD AND SAW. ALTHOUGH THE -SHRA WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER AT BOTH
THESE LOCATIONS. UNDER SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...IFR CIGS MAY IMPACT SAW
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. SINCE CMX SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE RA
AREA... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

524 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

AS AN AREA OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY APRCHG WARM FNT MOVES
INTO UPR MI SW-NE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO IMPACT IWD AND THEN SAW BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH THE -SHRA WL
DIMINISH DURING THIS AFTN...LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
AT BOTH THESE LOCATIONS. UNDER SOME MID LVL DRYING AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...IFR CIGS MAY
IMPACT SAW THIS EVNG. SINCE CMX SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE RA AREA...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

517 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KTS INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THU INTO THU NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

932 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SFC LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT US HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
WEAKENED AND DRIFTED TO THE N THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MOVED OFF TO THE E OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. EXPECT THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH BEST COVERAGE IN NE MS AND DECREASING FROM THE SW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DUE TO GOOD LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LINGERING AND 00Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT ENVIRONMENT...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND NE AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS BUT W WINDS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS
COULD HINDER THAT SOMEWHAT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
FROM THE W/SW BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV BRINGS MORE CLOUDS IN
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. OVERALL ADJUSTED LOWS A
TAD UPWARD IN THE E DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS AND SOME WINDS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN E/NE MS WHILE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE W.
/DC/

.AVIATION...THE FORECAST FOR CIGS IS ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT TONIGHT AS
IT APPEARS SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. PER HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER ANY CLEARING CAN
TAKE PLACE...WILL STAY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL LOOK
FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO RAISE CIGS ABOVE LIFR CATEGORY IN THE TAFS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE CWA FROM THE WEST.
A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS WEST MS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE EAST. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RAIN
MIXED WITH SOME DRIZZLE.

FOR TONIGHT HI-RES MODELS SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN DECREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT AS
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND FOR A
WHILE. EXPECT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AND
BRING A FRONT TO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION...MATCHING WPC QPF. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
AND SHOWERS WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S EXCEPT
FOR SOME MIDDLE 40S IN THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL WASH OUT AS WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR
THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. WE START GETTING THE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN
THE WEST HALF FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS BRINGS THE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND DEFLECTS TO THE NORTH AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EURO HAS LOST ITS NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE SYSTEM FROM THE
EARLIER 00Z RUN. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE KEEPING BETTER FORM WHILE
IT CROSSES THE CWA. THE EURO IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE CWA. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO
THE SHORT WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WE
MAY GET A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME GOOD SHEAR...BUT
HEIGHTS ARE A LITTLE HIGH FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED EVENT.
INSTABILITY WILL BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BRING AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TOP OF OUR RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. THE RAINS WILL END
FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH THE WETTER EURO AND GFS. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ANY SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND I`LL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY
HAZARDS INTO THE HWO FOR THE TIME BEING. /17/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 77 60 77 / 41 9 17 13
MERIDIAN 63 75 59 76 / 45 10 18 23
VICKSBURG 58 79 58 76 / 25 8 14 13
HATTIESBURG 63 78 62 80 / 22 7 18 26
NATCHEZ 60 80 61 76 / 13 8 17 16
GREENVILLE 61 76 55 73 / 41 8 9 3
GREENWOOD 61 75 56 73 / 58 9 12 4

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DC/EC/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

704 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Light Showers and drizzle are expected through the remainder of the
evening and into tonight. This is thanks to a broad surface low
which was associated with Hurricane Patricia drifting northward up
the Mississippi River Valley from the Gulf Coast today. This low
will continue to drift northward into eastern Missouri today
continuing to stream moisture into the area. Also, a upper level
shortwave trough is moving across central Nebraska and Oklahoma
today provides showers across central Kansas. These showers are
expected to weaken as we move into the evening however, light
showers can not be ruled out. The upper level shortwave trough is
expect to move through the area tonight bringing light shower and
drizzle chances from west to east. Light will also be an issue
tonight. Otherwise temperatures under cloud skies should remain
relatively warm with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow an
upper level trough will dig through the Upper Midwest with a 140kt
upper level jet traversing the area. This may help provide enough
forcing for some showers across the northern CWA. It, coupled with
modest northwest winds at the surface will keep highs on the cool
side in the mid 50s and low 60s. Tomorrow night, skies will clear
out with light westerly winds. This will allow temperatures to drop
into the mid to upper 30s. There may be some front issue across the
northern CWA however, winds may remain elevated enough to preclude
frost concerns. Surface high pressure will move into the area on
Thursday keeping conditions sunny and cool with highs in the 50s.

The extended period will begin wet on Friday as models are in good
agreement that an upper level trough will dig into the southwestern
CONUS. Gulf moisture will stream northward out ahead of this system
and overspread the area during the day Friday and continue into
Friday night. Model solution begin to diverge on Saturday as to the
evolution of an upper level low in the base of the southwestern
CONUS trough. The GFS takes the upper low and from the southwest
into the Red River Valley in Saturday and then shifts it northeast
into Missouri on Sunday keeping rain chances in the forecast through
the weekend. The EC slows down and weakens the upper level trough as
it moves from the southwestern CONUS. This solution would bring rain
chances to the area Friday and Saturday. However, by Sunday the EC
takes the upper trough, as an open wave, through the Red River
Valley and continues to push it east keeping precipitation of the
area on Sunday. Both the EC and GFS do agree that upper ridging
should build back into the area provide dry and mild conditions by
early next week with highs possibly approaching 70.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Off and on light drizzle with IFR and MVFR cigs, and vsbys between
2-4SM, possible overnight. Hi-res HRRR model and bufkit soundings are
indicating the potential for dense fog to develop by early tomorrow
morning and continuing through 12-13Z before increasing NW winds
attempt to scour it out. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air in
the mid and upper layers moving into southern portion of the region,
and this will help to decrease cloud cover allowing for fog
development. Light northerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow
morning to 10-15 kts...gusting to 20-25 kts by early afternoon as
pressure gradient tightens significantly across the plains.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

636 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING....THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WITH LIGHT QPF HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CURRENT KLNX 88D SCAN REVEALS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO NORTH ACROSS
DEUEL...WESTERN GARDEN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LOOSELY HAS THE SITUATION RESOLVED...SO WILL GO WITH A
GENERAL BLEND OF THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE RESULT IS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS EVENING...WILL NEED TO
WATCH A COMPACT PV ANOMALY THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PANHANDLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND THE PV MAX WOULD ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN AFTER SUN UP WEDNESDAY WHEN A 100KT+ H5 JET DIVES
SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COMBINES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SFC
PRESSURE FALLS...AND SOLID MIXING AS LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE. THERE/S POTENTIAL OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND IF WE MIX TO THE FULL POTENTIAL /ABOVE
H7/...50MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ATTM WE FEEL THE 45 MPH GUSTS SHOULD
BE THE UPPER LIMIT.

THE WIND/MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
POST FRONTAL CAA...BUT STILL...LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S /NORTHWEST/...30S ELSEWHERE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE PARTIALLY DECOUPLING NEAR DAWN...IF THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE A
PRODUCT OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTIFUL
CAA WILL PROMOTE HIGHS OF ONLY THE UPPER 40S FOR THE NORTH...NEAR 60
OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...LOWER 20S CENTRAL SANDHILLS...TO
THE UPPER 20S FAR NERN ZONES.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY CANADIAN AIRMASS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND LIMITED MIXING...HIGHS NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST FROM NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR TO NEAR 50 IN THE NORTHEAST.

A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A MOISTURE RETURN FROM TEXAS INTO KANSAS. A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 30 TO 50 POPS
FRIDAY AFTN EAST OF AINSWORTH THROUGH MULLEN AND OGALLALA.
PREFERRED THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE 12Z GFS RUN OVER THE NAM.
CHC POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER TROUGH
EXITS.

DRY WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 6000 FT AGL. SKIES
WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY AND SCATTER OUT WITH CIGS AROUND 15000 FT
AGL. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND
BEGIN TO LIFT WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND
10000 FT AGL AND WILL BE BROKEN IN THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING
SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
FURTHER TO 15 TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY ECLIPSE 30
KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

803 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WILL RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...AN INITIAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING RAIN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LULL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...BARELY VISIBLE ON H2O VAPOR
IMAGERY BUT WELL-DEFINED ON RAP AND GFS...WILL BE LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...ONGOING ~100 POPS LOOK GOOD.
SIMILARLY... THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT BUMP UPWARDS IN THE TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SUPPORTING THE
VERY GRADUAL RISE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES TO PECK AWAY AT THE COOL AIRMASS.

CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING WITH A PARENT HIGH (1035MB)
SLOWLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE EAST-SELY FLOW
JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE WAS STRENGTHENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W OR SHEAR AXIS.
THIS OVERRUNNING SET-UP WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NEWD AND EXITS OUR
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY
AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.

A COASTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST
AT 19Z. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGEST TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN SLOWLY
RISING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...MOST LOCATIONS EXCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT SHOULD BE AT
OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE DUE TO RAIN
AND/OR LIGHT FOG...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO WELL MIXED TO CAUSE AREAS
OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPEPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL SEND A SERIES OF S/W INTO
CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NC. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARM
HUMID AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION.

THE STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE
35-45KT RANGE. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW (RESIDUAL EFFECT OF THE CAD AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT)
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES NEAR THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR
ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER... THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT
BE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OF SUFFICIENT DEPTH AS LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
SUCH THAT THE 12Z GFS MUCAPE VALUES REACH 1200-1400 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
MLCAPE 400-600J/KG. IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES AND IF PEEKS OF SUN
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON NEAR OR ADJACENT TO OUR
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE.

PLAN TO HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY CATEGORIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS PRECIP CHARACTER BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (SOONER THE
BETTER). HAVE MAX TEMPS VARYING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NW (WHERE
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS WILL BE LATE TO ERODE) TO THE MID 70S SE. IF
ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCUR (SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN) THEN
MAX TEMPS MAY END UP 3-4 DEGREES WARMER.

PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE THREAT. SHOULD SEE POPS DECREASE IN
THE WEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG DRYING AND SINKING AIR EXPECTED ABOVE
850 MB... ALTHOUGH THE TRULY COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THU NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND
COMPONENT... SO EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS FROM 71-78. ISOLATED
SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTED VERY LOW COVERAGE AND LOW QPF RESULTING
FROM THE FALLING PW... WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST... ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT 850-800 MB ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT TO SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS FROM 43 NW
TO 51 SE AS THICKNESSES DROP BELOW NORMAL.

FRI-TUE: DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRI/SAT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY FRI... PUSHING TO THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION BY SAT AND OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. A BAGGY AND
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OFF THE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS... A RESULT OF A
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT SW AND
NRN MEXICO FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER FL AND THE SE STATES.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER NC STARTING LATE SAT AS THE SW TROUGH
HEADS EASTWARD... INCREASING THE SWRLY STEERING FLOW AND PASSAGE
OF PERTURBATIONS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND OVER 12 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN
LIFTING THIS MID LEVEL LOW TO THE E THEN NE THROUGH THE MID MISS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE OP ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENS MEAN THAN THE GFS... AND THE GEFS MEAN
ACTUALLY MORE RESEMBLES THE OP ECMWF THAN THE GFS. WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF...WILL GO WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUN BUT HOLD OFF ON
CHANCE POPS UNTIL SUN NIGHT... LIKELY LASTING INTO MON/TUE (WITH A
DROPOFF IN CONFIDENCE) WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A STEADY STREAM OF
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS... AND SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THICKNESSES SHOULD
START OFF BELOW NORMAL SAT AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE SUN...
HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL MON/TUE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. -GIH

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM TUESDAY...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT KRDU
EASTWARD... WHILE KGSO/KINT LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A COLD AIR
DAMMING REGIME WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LLWS RISK REMAINS MOST LIKELY IN THE TRIAD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NE FLOW BECOMES SE TO 40KTS AT 1500 TO
2000 FT.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL NC...AIDING TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THE CLOUD COVERAGE...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC
BY LATE SUNDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...30/WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

250 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO OUR REGION
INTO MID WEEK...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAROLINAS WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN INTO THE 30S IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE SURFACE GRADIENT WAS SUCH THAT WINDS WERE
GUSTING IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20KT. IN THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COUPLED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SURFACE TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...AREA RADAR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SPRINKLES OR...IN SOME SPOTS...MORE
NOTICEABLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.

THIN PATCHES IN CLOUDS AT TIMES SHOULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF U.S. 1...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK...DRY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND K INDICES FALL SOME DURING THE DAY. RAP SOUNDINGS
THERE ARE FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BELOW ABOUT
700MB. TO THE WEST... PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING THROUGH THE 700MB LAYER AS THE 850MB LAYER
DRIES A LITTLE. 850MB LIFT IS WEAK TODAY...BUT THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AND 700MB MOISTENING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME SOME OF THE 850MB DRYING AND RESULT IN
AREAS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FAR WEST AND MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL
NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE OF
THESE IN A RELATIVE SENSE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO U.S. 1 AS OPPOSED TO
INTERSTATE 95. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
50S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD...THOUGH WITH A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 65 ALONG
INTERSTATE 95.

OVERNIGHT...THE DEAMPLIFICATION/APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID-UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN BOTH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AN ACCELERATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH WILL CULMINATE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/ NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AREA OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
- FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE MODEL BIAS OF OFTEN TIMES BEING TOO SLOW WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISENTROPICALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION...IT IS HARD
TO IGNORE THE SLOWER TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE -REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST- PRESUMABLY OWING TO THE DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING CP SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S (AND UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT) THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WHICH WILL TAKE TIME TO
OVERCOME. LOWS...EVAPORATIVELY-COOLED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWFA WHERE RAIN MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

MANY QUESTIONS AS TO THE FINER DETAILS WHEN THE DAMMING BREAKS ON
WEDNESDAY. PARENT LOW MOVES ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY AS WELL...WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY MID AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST BY
SUNSET. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE DAY TO BE REPLACED BY PATCHY LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DRY SLOTTING IS DEPICTED ON
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...INTRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A FEW STORMS DURING THE DAY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED AMPLE SHEAR PROFILE.

INTIALLY A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
EXIST EARLY DUE TO RESIDUAL DAMMING. THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WARM
QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS
IN...PERHAPS REACHING 70 EVEN IN THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT REACH 35-40 KNOTS...SO ANY MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS TO 20 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR 30+ MPH IN CONVECTION. THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...AND POPS FALL OFF TO
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE LINGERING IN THE EAST WITH CLEARING UNDERWAY IN
THE WEST. MINS WILL BE MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...FROM 55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL EDGE UP A BIT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DESPITE
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE...MAINLY UPPER 60S. AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON
MONDAY. THE LATE DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE 18Z
VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AND A
MODESTLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IS IN THE TRIAD WHERE THE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN COLD-AIR DAMMING SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...AT
LEAST WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BY 13Z TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...AT
KRDU IT APPEARS LIKELY CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO HIGH IFR IN TERMS OF
CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING...WHEREAS PROBABILITIES OF IFR BECOME LESS
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY DURING THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE KFAY AND KRWI DOWN TO
1000FT CEILINGS BY 14Z...AND AMONG THOSE TWO SITES CONSIDER IT
SLIGHTLY MORE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH IFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AT KFAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
WEDNESDAY...THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PERSISTENT DRYING FINALLY TAKES PLACE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
KFAY LIKELY AMONG THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES TO RETURN TO
CONTINUOUS VFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE GOOD CLOCKWISE TURNING OF
THE WINDS ALOFT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BY 2000FT TO
NEAR 40KT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHILE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE ALOFT TO NEAR THE SAME
VALUE...DIRECTION CHANGE...SOUTHERLY...SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AND VEER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/26
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1255 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT TUESDAY INTO MID-DAY WEDNESDAY...

RAIN WITH A WELL DEFINED HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) EVENT IS
EXPECTED OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION TUESDAY INTO MID-DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION MARKS CONTINUE TO
BE WITH THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEMISE OF THE
CAD EVENT WED... AND THE RESULTANT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CAD EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION. THIS IS COURTESY OF THE 1035+ MB HIGH
WEDGED INTO OUR REGION. A COASTAL/WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INLAND INTO
NC/VA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS UP ALONG OR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OVERRUNNING RAINS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH QPF
OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH LESSER TOTALS IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION... IT APPEARS THAT THE CAD WILL WAX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION MAY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S BETWEEN 18Z-23Z TUESDAY BEFORE BEFORE
STEADYING OUT AND THEN POSSIBLY SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 50S BEFORE
12Z WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH AROUND
00Z/WED... BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM GSB TO
FAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY... THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO VA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... RESIDUAL CAD CONDITIONS (LOW
OVERCAST/FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN) WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE NW PORTIONS OF OUR PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES IN THIS
REGION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. IF THE SKIES BECOME PARTLY OR
VARIABLY CLOUDY... READINGS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR
70. HOWEVER... IF THE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG LINGER LONGER... UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S MAY BE ALL THAT WE CAN MUSTER. CONVERSELY...
TEMPERATURES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH THE
RAIN BECOMING MORE PATCHY AND LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS/LOW TOPPED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD AID IN WARMING/DRYING ON THURSDAY
AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS 40-45 AND HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT OUT
OF TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/26
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1021 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT TUESDAY INTO MID-DAY WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS 40-45 AND HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT OUT
OF TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THROUGH AROUND 16Z...AS THE
BRUNT OF THE HIGH AND (COLD/DRY AIR) BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500-6000 FT WILL DISPERSE FROM THE NORTHEAST...PARTICULARLY
FROM RDU TO RWI...AS THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR RIDGES SOUTH.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL RE-DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT...AS
EASTERLY FLOW CENTERED AROUND 2000 FT STRENGTHENS AND OVER-RUNS THE
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TUE.

OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WED --EARLY IN THE DAY AT RWI/FAY AND
MUCH LATER IN THE DAY OR EVEN WED NIGHT AT TRIAD SITES. LLWS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WHEN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAXIMIZES ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/26
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1149 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

NO FURTHER CHANGED NEEDED. PATCHY FOG CANDO AND ROLLA AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE SPRINKLES ENDING IN WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

DID INCLUDE PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG TO FAR NW FCST AREA. HRRR HAS
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING FOG AREA BRANDON MB SOUTHWARD
INTO CNTRL ND AND BRUSHING FAR NW FCST AREA MAINLY W/NW OF DEVILS
LAKE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

MAIN IMPACTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE PCPN CHANCES FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK AND POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
BLEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW -RA POTENTIAL ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM NE SD INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT WAVE IN NW ND GETS CLOSER. OVERALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER WITH RAIN AMOUNTS SO KEPT POPS LOW
AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SE FA CLOSEST TO BOUNDARY. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 30 ACROSS THE NORTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA MONDAY AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUES.

AS NEXT WAVE LIFTS NE MONDAY NIGHT PCPN SHOULD LIFT FROM SW-NE
INTO THE FA. BEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE FA. COULD SEE A -RASN MIX LATE ACROSS THE NORTH
HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW
WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FA. UPPER LOW TRACK
WOULD FAVOR BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVER MN. LATEST RUNS SHIFTING
MAIN PCPN BAND A BIT FARTHER EAST GENERALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
MN.

AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY COLD AIR SPREADS
INTO THE FA WITH POTENTIAL FOR -RASN MIX IN WRAP AROUND. DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF WRAP AROUND COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. WILL ALSO SEE STRONG N-NW WINDS.

.EXTENDED (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
TO START THE PERIOD...WHICH ALL MODELS AGREE ON. DETAILS WILL
DETERMINE ACTUAL IMPACTS...INCLUDING WIND SPEEDS...SNOW
POTENTIAL...QPF AMOUNTS...PRECIP PLACEMENT. SNOW SEEMS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY...WITH WIND AND SOME SHOWERS THE MAIN CONCERNS. QUIET
WEATHER AFTER THAT...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

VFR THRU THE FCST PD. SCT-BKN AC/CI THRU THE FCST PD...MOST
COVERAGE IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT DVL
AIRPORT EARLY MORNING BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM. HRRR
INDICATES BEST CHANCES TO ITS WEST. INCREASE IN CIRRUS AND THEN AC
LATER IN THE DAY INTO MON EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WITH RAIN
ARRIVING IN FARGO AREA MID TO LATE MON EVENING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

402 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH REMNANTS OF PATRICIA BRINGS RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TWEAKED
POPS SOME TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS USING HRRR AND WRFARW.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY TRIED TO ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE PRECIP
SHADOW SOME IN THE I79 CORRIDOR...GOING WITH POP/QPF MINIMUM
THERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FAR WESTERN CWA TO AT OR NEAR 100 PERCENT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A DEFORMATION BAND SLIDES NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT STARTS TO FEEL
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AS 850MB FLOW INCREASES OUT OF
THE E/SE TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STOUT BAROCLINIC LEAF READILY EVIDENT ON STLT TODAY OVER SE 1/4
OF THE CONUS. ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CONFLUENCE ZONE WHERE THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM JETS MEET OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SERVED TO ENHANCE
THE EFFECT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...AND
BECOMES A RATHER FLAT WAVE BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE CWA TUE
NT...IN SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE W EVEN AS IT FORMS OUT OF SEVERAL
SMALLER S/W TROUGHS.

THE ORIGINAL SFC FEATURE BECOMES WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE CWA TUE NT...BUT A TIGHT W TO E LOW LEVEL GRADIENT SPELLS A
CLASSIC RAIN SHADOW EFFECT ON STRONG SE FLOW. WITH THIS...AND MOST
OF THE FORCING OUTSIDE UPSLOPE GENERATED IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RAINFALL TUE NT INTO WED SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE...A SLOW
SOAKER WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OVER SIX HOUR PERIOD IN THE ERN
UPSLOPE AREA OF WV...AND SLIGHTLY LESS OVER THE WRN FRINGES...AND
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER SIX HOURS IN THE SHADOW AREA IN
BETWEEN.

MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS DO NOT MIX MUCH OF THE 70KTS SHOWN
AT H85 OFF THE NAM12 TO THE SFC. THE STRONG INVERSION CREATED BY
COOL ATLANTIC AIR FLOWING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A STRONG SFC HIGH
SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...BENEATH WARMER AIR FLOWING IN
ON SW MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL KEEP STRONG WIND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE
VERY HIGHEST RIDGES.

A NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN DIGS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...AS
THE FINAL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE THAT ESTABLISHES A L/W TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS COME THU. A SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY WED IN RESPONSE
TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PULLS QUICKLY NEWD...REACHING
JAMES BAY IN CENTRAL CANADA BY THU MORNING. THIS PULLS A STRONG
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED INTO WED NT...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THU. THIS RESULTS IN GOOD MIXING
THROUGH WED NT AND THU...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS TAKEN OUT
ON WED. THIS ALSO DRIES OUT THE WEATHER...AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ARE REALIZED ON THU.

THU EVENING FINDS THE L/W ALREADY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE NERN
STATES.

TEMPERATURES TAKE A NON DIURNAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE...STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING ON TUE NT...AND THEN NEARLY STEADY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU AS H85 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT
5C. USED MOSTLY TO NAM BASED GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE NEAR THE LOW END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP ON WED AND THE HIGH END ON THU WITH BETTER
MIXING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED THURSDAY NIGHT...TO BE
REPLACED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WX THRU
SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
UNSETTLED. THE CULPRIT BEING AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW
CONUS AND INTERACTING WITH THE N STREAM. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
WITH AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
JUST HOW WET WET GET.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. DO NOTE THAT BKW CURRENT HAS MVFR CIGS
IN PLACE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL REMAIN AND ONLY HAVE IT IN
THE TAF FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 3500 FEET.
ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT AND AROUND EKN
TONIGHT. WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON QUICKLY CLOUDS AND FLOW INCREASE.
FOR NOW STAYED IN THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. RAIN
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO DID NOT GO WITH IFR AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT FORM AT EKN...OR COULD BE MORE
DENSE IF CLOUDS AND WINDS LAG BEHIND FORECAST. TIMING OF SHOWERS
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IFR CIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

129 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT HEADED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT COPIOUS MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY FROM THE
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW TO THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA...THE VEERING FLOW AS THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS WILL BRING A DOMINANT SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
CREATING TO MAIN POINTS. THE FIRST WILL BE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST...AND SOME DOWN SLOPING EFFECTS. THE
MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS RESPECT ARE THE
INCREASES IN THE POPS FROM INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND THE
ELIMINATION OF THE CLOUD COVER DOWN SLOPING EFFECT. LOW LEVELS WILL
DRY OUT SOME...WHICH IS WHY THE QPF ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ABOVE ANY TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.
CLOUDS SOCKED IN AT 100 PERCENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

TEMPERATURES RUN MILD WEDNESDAY IN THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH LOWLAND 70S DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN. MODEST COOL OFFS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY DUE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO E CANADA WITH A DRY THURSDAY SHAPING UP. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR CARRYING OVER INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN A BELOW NORMAL...REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. DO NOTE THAT BKW CURRENT HAS MVFR CIGS
IN PLACE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL REMAIN AND ONLY HAVE IT IN
THE TAF FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 3500 FEET.
ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT AND AROUND EKN
TONIGHT. WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON QUICKLY CLOUDS AND FLOW INCREASE.
FOR NOW STAYED IN THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. RAIN
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO DID NOT GO WITH IFR AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT FORM AT EKN...OR COULD BE MORE
DENSE IF CLOUDS AND WINDS LAG BEHIND FORECAST. TIMING OF SHOWERS
MAY VARY.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IFR CIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1001 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF I64. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. UPDATED POPS BASED ON HRRR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR LOUISIANA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM STREAMING A THICK VEIL OF CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE STEADILY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT COPIOUS MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY FROM THE
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW TO THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL RUN A BELOW NORMAL...REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IFR FOG NEAR ELKINS THAT DEVELOPED IN LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. CIRRUS MAY TEMPER FOG
LONGEVITY AS THICKER CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD. MENTIONED A LITTLE
MVFR CIGS AT KBKW AS WELL IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT LOWER CIGS VSBYS TO BEGIN TO CREEP IN THE SRN TAF
SITES AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM...EXCEPT LOW AT KEKN THIS MORNING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CLOUDS IN BECKLEY MONDAY
COULD VARY. TIMING OF PRECIP LIFTING NORTHWARD MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST.

UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...

INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD FORM
IFR CEILINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED GRAMMAR MISTAKE IN FOG PARAGRAPH

NWS NORMAN OK

853 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR I-40. ALSO...ADDED THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. FINALLY...ADDED PATCHY
FOG MENTION EAST OF I-35 TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. NOTE THAT THE
KDDC RADAR IS DOWN...SO RADAR COVERAGE MAY BE UNDERDONE. THINK
THIS CLUSTER AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING FAR NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
A BIT NEAR I-40. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT LIFT IS RATHER
STRONG AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE. DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS MUCAPE SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG...THOUGH ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
A WIND GUST OR TWO NEAR 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SPREADS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 3 DEGREES EAST OF
I-35...ESPECIALLY NEAR ADA...COALGATE...AND ATOKA. THUS...THINK
THAT THIS HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
FORMATION. DOUBT FOG WILL GET DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL
MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS OR CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL
ABOUT 05Z. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS OK AND INTO N
TX. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW-N AT AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AT MOST
SITES INTO THE 20S KT. SCATTERED SHRA WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...BUT LITTLE OR NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THEM...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AT MOST SITES AFTER SUNRISE...THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES LATE WEEK... WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

TONIGHT... A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OFF THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE S/SE INTO NWRN OK THROUGH WED MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS EASILY VISUALIZED ON WV THIS AFTN... OVER SERN WY/NRN CO.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINOR... BUT COMBINED
WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE WAVE... SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH NOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID
MORNING ACROSS NRN OK... THE H500 SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT
TO THE EAST... WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS OK TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS TEXOMA. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THU... WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUING. A WEAK FRONT
MAY DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH WINDS RELAXING
THROUGH THU MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NRN OK. HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
NRN AND CENTRAL OK TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS TEXOMA AND WRN N TX AS
SOUTH WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE AFTN.

FRIDAY... A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
EASTWARD... DIGGING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. THROUGH FRI MORNING.
INCREASING WAA AND LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. MID TO LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT... WITH DECENT GROUPING OF GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS... SAVE FOR A FEW OUTLIERS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT...
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TO DEFINITE FOR MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS E/NE OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO. INSTABILITY WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE TO MINOR... WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME 200 TO
400 J/KG OF CAPE SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER... PRIMARILY LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK... NEARER THE ENHANCED
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SFC LOW AS IT SCOOTS INTO TEXOMA THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.20 TO 1.60
IN ON FRI ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN OK/WRN N TX. IF THIS IS
REALIZED... THIS WOULD BE IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
OCT PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WITH THIS IN MIND... AND GIVEN
THE GOOD AGREEMENT... EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE
POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 1.00 TO 2.25IN FRI-SAT AM... WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN OK INTO NRN TX.

SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...
EXITING EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AFTN. SO... IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON
ATTENDING THE WEATHER FESTIVAL AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER... AND
YOU SHOULD... IT IS PRETTY NEAT... YOU MAY WANT PACK A RAIN COAT OR
AT LEAST BRING AN UMBRELLA. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANTLY FALL LIKE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH A STEADY WARM
UP TO HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S.

JTK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 67 43 67 / 40 20 0 0
HOBART OK 48 68 44 69 / 30 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 44 65 36 63 / 40 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 67 38 63 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 53 73 49 73 / 0 10 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1034 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SEASONABLY COLDER LAKE EFFECT SHOWER/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL END THE WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10PM UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR SHOWS RAIN OVER THE SWRN 1/4 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA...STEADILY SPREADING NORTH. HRRR SHOWS THIS RAIN CONTINUING
TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME.

FROM EARLIER...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH IS CAPTURING THE UPPER LOW THAT GAVE DRENCHING RAINS TO
TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A STRONG COUPLED UPPER JET HELPING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A POWERFUL LOW LEVEL SSE JET AND SURGING IT UP THROUGH WESTERN
PA/OHIO LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

BY 06Z...MUCH OF CWA SHOULD BE RAINING WITH INTENSITY PICKING UP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED AS STRONG JET DYNAMICS TAKE OVER. COULD
EVEN SEE SCT EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT AS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO OUR
NE. QPF TOTALS FOR THE EVENT LOOK TO BE IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE.

EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY AGEOSTROPHIC
WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENT 60KT JET SLIDING INTO SW
PA HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAURELS
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH WILL BE ON
THE RIDGETOPS AND LEE SIDE /WEST FACE/ OF THE RIDGES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MAIN PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE QUITE DRASTIC TO THE
WEST...WITH 40DAM IN 24 HRS. THE SFC LOW WILL CONGEAL OVER IL AND
DEEPEN >15 MB IN LESS THAN 24 HRS AS IT MOVES UP TO LS. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SE WITH
50KT WINDS LESS THAN 2KFT OVERHEAD. THUS...THERE COULD EASILY BE
SOME ADVISORY-TYPE WIND GUSTS IF CONVECTION CAN MIX THEM
DOWN...THIS THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. THE TRICKY PART TO THE
FORECAST HERE IS HOW MUCH MIXING WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN TYPICALLY YIELDS MUCH LESS WIND THAN POSSIBLE AS THE LLVL
STABILITY HOLDS ON FOR A GOOD LONG WHILE...ESP IN THE VALLEYS.

MULTIPLE FRONTS/SFC TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO ERN CANADA. THE FINAL PUSH OF
DRIEST AIR SHOULD COME MID-DAY THURS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY. A COLDER AND DRIER WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A SECONDARY FROPA AND SHOULD BRING LAKE EFFECT
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS STILL LOOK MARGINAL BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND RESULT IN BRISK WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.

HEIGHTS WILL START TO REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z GFS
OUTPACING THE 00Z ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TIMING OF PCPN
WHICH COULD REACH WESTERN PA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SPREAD IN THE PCPN PATTERN CONTINUES TO GROW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN RISK/TIMING.

ONE THEME THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON IS A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DETERIORATING WEATHER TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR
WEST...SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS INTO CENTRAL
PA. BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE A 50-60KT LOW-LEVEL SSE JET AT 2-3KFT
BRINGING WIND SHEAR TO TERMINALS TONIGHT. CIGS LOWER INITIALLY IN
THE SW BY EARLY EVE...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. SCT
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSS WED AFT/EVE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS. EXPECTED RESTRICTING CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TOMORROW NIGHT AS
POTENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BUT TRANSITION TO A NW FLOW REGIME WITH RESTRICTIONS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
QUITE BREEZY...THIS TIME FROM THE W/NW.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS. BREEZY. LLWS.

THU...WINDY. AM SHOWERS/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

FRI-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH QPF TOTALS AROUND 1.5
INCHES FORECASTED. THIS WILL BRING SOME RISES TO LOCAL STREAMS
AND RIVERS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
HYDROLOGY...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

252 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

NO HIGHLIGHTS OR HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AWAY
FROM THE REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST...A DAMPENED TROUGH
IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID WEEK.

FOR TODAY...WINDY AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. WINDS WILL GUST TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES AS TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS. A NEAR REPEAT OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX HIGHS AND LESS CLOUD COVER GIVEN DRIER
VERTICAL PROFILES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

OUR HAZARD FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION. THE MAIN RISKS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION FOR OTHER
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

BY MID-WEEK...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK DRY FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE RE-ESTABLISHING OF
MOISTURE COMMENCES. A STRONG SIGNAL ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE SUITE OF
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES A POTENT MID-LVL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG SIDE BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL HELP INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL AID IN DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE
DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO NEAR 560 DM WHICH IS ABOUT 10DM DEEPER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE
WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND VS.
THE PAST EVENT WHERE PWATS WERE UPWARDS OF 2.1-2.3" VS. THE
PROGGED 1.8-1.9` (BUT STILL GOOD). THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR HEAVY RAIN AS SET-UP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCED. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS A POSSIBLE
DRYLINE SURGE OCCURS OR IF IT WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED EVENT LATE
FRIDAY INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY. LOOKING AT PROGGED CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS AND SOUNDINGS...HEALTHY PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN
PLACE THAT COULD SUGGEST ORGANIZATION FOR A BROKEN QLCS ALONG A
POSSIBLE DRYLINE SURGE SATURDAY MORNING TO MID-DAY. ANY
ORGANIZATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD AID IN STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLY OTHER HAZARDS AS A 90-100 KT JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SET-UP FOR OVERALL RAIN ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD POSSIBILITIES.

THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BECOMES MURKY ON SUNDAY
WITH EC SLOWER THAN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS. THE UKMET AND GEM FAVOR A
SLOWER PATTERN WITH RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 82 60 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 81 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 84 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 51 80 57 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 84 58 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 52 81 57 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 84 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 82 57 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 82 58 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 85 60 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 85 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1233 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. VCT IS THE ONLY SITE DEVIATING FROM THIS AS
SOME CLOUDS COULD MOVE BACK IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL SPINNING
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THINK VCT SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DESPITE ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THEY COULD
HOWEVER GET A BIT OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
STICKING WITH JUST MVFR VISBY FOR NOW. SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
MID-MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER STRATUS DECK
TO THE NORTH OF VCT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE VCT AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR
SKIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT NOT
LIKE YESTERDAY. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY 00Z TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OPEN INTO A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW CLOUDS
BACK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BUT LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
AT 295K LEVEL INDICATES THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE BAYS SO CANCELLED
THE SCA EARLY. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BAYS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCA WILL EXPIRE
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 18Z AND OFFSHORE AT 00Z TUE.

TIDES...OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED THE TIDE AND BAY LEVELS
ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WITH A CONTINUED MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY...DECREASING TIDE AND BAY LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS AND QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR TO
BELOW 1 INCH. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE COMING WEEKEND MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO IMPACT THE REGION.
ECMWF CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHILE GFS KEEPS SYSTEM MORE OF A DEEP TROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING OVER THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS AS BETTER TIMING AND CONSISTENCY
DEVELOP WITH MODELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY AND
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
MORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 58 84 62 85 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 56 82 59 84 61 / 0 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 55 87 62 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 55 86 59 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 62 81 66 82 68 / 0 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 53 85 59 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 55 86 60 88 65 / 0 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 63 81 67 82 70 / 0 10 0 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

PZ/83...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

624 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER STRATUS DECK
TO THE NORTH OF VCT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE VCT AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR
SKIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT NOT
LIKE YESTERDAY. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY 00Z TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 58 84 62 85 / 10 0 10 0 0
VICTORIA 75 56 82 59 84 / 10 0 10 0 0
LAREDO 80 55 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 80 55 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 62 81 66 82 / 10 0 10 0 0
COTULLA 79 53 85 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 55 86 60 88 / 10 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 63 81 67 82 / 10 0 10 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

TMT/89...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

833 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS... AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEAVIER AXIS OF STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING AS WE SLIDE IN BETWEEN WAVES.
HOWEVER VERY STRONG VEERING PROFILE ALOFT OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ABOVE LIKELY TO COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE TO
ALLOW ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT
PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS. THIS CLOSER TO THE EARLIER GFS
SOLUTION AND NOW LATEST HRRR IN SHIFTING BEST COVERAGE NORTH AND
THEN FINALLY MORE INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY MORNING. THEREFORE
ONLY TWEAKING DOWN POPS SW AND ADDING IN SOME DRIZZLE EARLY ON
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO MOSTLY CATEGORICAL POPS WITH HIGH LIKELYS FAR
WEST OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH WITH SOME
BREAKS IN STEADIER PRECIP TO PRECLUDE FLOODING ISSUES FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE WITH RAIN HAVING TAPERED OFF SOME IN THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...CONCERN FOR BETTER MIXING DOWN OF 45-50 KT EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 85H ESPCLY THROUGH ABOUT 08Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS SO IFFY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA.
CURRENT MSAS DOES SHOW GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ONGOING WITHIN THE
WEDGE SO THIS MAY QUICKLY CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL TO MIX DOWN. THUS WILL
NEED TO WATCH TAZEWELL/MERCER CTYS WHERE HAVE ALREADY BOOSTED
SPEEDS TO HIGH END ADVISORY LEVELS.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN BASICALLY STEADY AS THE STRONG WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT
GIVEN RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE COOL POOL. THINK ONCE SOME DECREASE
TAKES PLACE WILL START TO SEE VALUES RISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT
MAY TAKE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FINGER OF THE HIGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE COMBINATION OF COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY HAS PREVENTED MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING FROM OUR EARLY MORNING LOWS...WITH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...CAUSING THE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO
WEAKEN...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ADVANCE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO VEER MORE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY...A WIND DIRECTION PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES. IN
ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
WILL INCREASE TO THE 55MPH TO 65MPH RANGE AS THE LOW PASSES WEST OF
OUR AREA.

TWO CONCERNS EXIST TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL MORE EFFICIENTLY CARRY ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...WHERE
IT WILL BE FORCED UPSLOPE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS
SUCH...BELIEVE THAT SOME SPOTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE LOCALLY
UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS...DO NOT BELIEVE THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE MORE
THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES...IF ANY AT ALL. THE SECOND
CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
CAUSING UPROOTED TREES AND LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. AS SUCH...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO ALLOW WARMER AIR TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. BELIEVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING TAKING PLACE
THROUGH DAWN.

LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY AS THE MORE UNSTABLE GULF AIR ARRIVES IN THE
AREA...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE...AND BELIEVE THAT
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY AN NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY
STORMS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CURVED HODOGRAPHS...AND IF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS IN THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROF DRIVING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL BE GRADUAL AT
FIRST BUT MAKE A BIGGER PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY AND ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
LOOKS ROBUST ENOUGH WITH GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO KEEP
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS GOING...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...INTO FRIDAY.

THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET UP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GOING INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BRIEFLY EMERGES DURING THE EXTENDED AS A CUTOFF LOW
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WORKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUT THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH. THUS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A WIDE
SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THE BACK EDGE OF MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS NEARING A KBLF-KDAN LINE. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA. 850 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
INTO THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE BY 06Z/2AM ALONG A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO HELP REGENERATE THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES
TRENDING INTO MAINLY IFR OR LIFR LEVEL THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DECENT WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST BETWEEN KBLF-KLWB.

LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION...THUS
DECREASING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND TRENDING
THE REGION TO MORE OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE BASED CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THU...DIMINISHING FRIDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCALLY 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS AND LOW STREAM
LEVELS...THIS RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE MORE THAN MINOR AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...IF ANY AT ALL.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/NF
HYDROLOGY...RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

159 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLOUD COVER IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED EARLIER.
HAVE INCREASED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT THE FAR N-NE SECTIONS...WHERE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
THINNER THAN FURTHER SOUTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO OTHER GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.

AS OF 820 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MSAS
SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS UNDER A PERSISTENT LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 85H-
7H OFF THE RNK EVENING SOUNDING THAT HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
RAINFALL TO A MINIMUM SO FAR. WEAK IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIKELY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE OF BRINGING ENOUGH
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY -RA/SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTH/WEST LATE
PER HIGHER PWATS OFF THE GSO SOUNDING BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS IFFY
GIVEN WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO BASICALLY DRY
EXCLUDING THE HRRR SO THINKING MAINLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
DEEPENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SEEN VIA IR PICS. FOR NOW WILL CUT
OUT POPS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND THEN KEEP SOME LOW/SLIGHT
CHANCES IN MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF THE NEW RIVER THROUGH DAWN WHICH
MAY STILL BE GENEROUS.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND...AND THE TRUE 85H BOUNDARY SLOWER...APPEARS
THE DEEPER WEDGE MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE AND MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THUS UPPING LOWS A FEW DEGREES ESPCLY SOUTH-SW WHERE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER AND BEST COOL ADVECTION WONT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE PROVIDED LIMITED COOLING UNDER LACK OF PRECIP. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY 45-50 EXCEPT 50-55 SOUTH.

BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH LIFT OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF US MONDAY WITH STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SE
LOUISIANA. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH FROM 1034 HIGH OVER
UPSTATE NY IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MAY KEEP
PLACES LIKE LYNCHBURG TO HOT SPRINGS DRY MONDAY...THOUGH STILL
THINK THE HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY...PLUS WITH INCREASE SE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE KEEPING IT RATHER
CLOUDY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COULD
SEE QUICK SHOT OF SUNSHINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 FROM HOT SPRINGS TO
BUCKINGHAM.

MONDAY LOOKS CHILLY/DAMP FOR MOST WITH STRONG WEDGE IN
PLACE...KEEPING HIGHS SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SE WV...SUCH THAT
TEMPS MAY ONLY RISE 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM LOWS MONDAY MORNING TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SW OUTSIDE THE WEDGE...STILL EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOWARD RICHLANDS/CHILHOWIE...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 50S AROUND DANVILLE/YANCEYVILLE TO
KEYSVILLE...WITH LACK OF PRECIP.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY.

BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO
NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA.
WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY
APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WILL NOT YET SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BUILD INTO THE
AREA. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL SUPPORT A WIDE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S FOR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER...TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE WHERE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT A RETURN OF SPOTTY UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW
HOURS...MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...DRAWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE WINDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
BECOMING CALM TO ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
START SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HOWEVER EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR FROM HYBRID TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS LA/ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...TYPICAL
WEDGE DEVELOPMENT IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION...FEEL THAT NORTHEAST DRY FLOW WILL SUPPRESS MUCH FURTHER
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
STRONG GRADIENT OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER MAKING NO FURTHER
PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

WITH THIS IN MIND AND AGREED UPON BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE
SCALED BACK CONSIDERABLY ON INTRODUCTION OF CLOUDS BELOW 080 AND
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE FAR SW VA AND WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT TO NEAR BLF...FEEL THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY MORNING AND ITS
ATTEMPT TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE
INCREASING DRY NORTHEAST FLOW.

AFT 00Z TUE...NORTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ENE-E...AND ESE
INTO SW VA/SE WV. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER UPSLOPE AND ADVANCEMENT
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL
THAT CIGS BELOW 030 WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 06Z TUE...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH BLF CLOSELY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME TUE.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD BECAUSE OF
CLOUD COVER AND WIND.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...GENERALLY NE-ENE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD ESE FAR SW VA/SOUTHEAST WV BY
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 5-7KTS THROUGH 14Z...BECOMING 6-9KTS WITH LOW
END GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
INCREASES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

152 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 820 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...

DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD BECAUSE OF
CLOUD COVER AND WIND.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

334 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL
DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE
A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...SO IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME LAST MINUTE SURFACE
HEATING. SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID TO LATE EVE
WITH NVA AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER AT 21Z...ADVANCING VERY QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH INCREASING H7-H3
MOISTURE...ALLOWING PCPN TO RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE 115-125
KT H25 JET PUSHES ALONG THE WY/CO STATE LINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW
A LATE AFTERNOON COLD FROPA PUSHING H7 TEMPS DOWN TO -2 C TO -4 C BY
00Z WED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THERMAL PROFILES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
TO YIELD A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT EXPECT WARM TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...GIVEN
STRONG LLVL CAA PROMOTING SUFFICIENT MIXING TO TAP INTO STRONGER LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 35 KTS PER NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH HIGH WINDS AS GRADIENTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE EYEBROWS. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUE NIGHT IN THE POST-FROPA AIR MASS IF WINDS CAN DIMINISH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT BREEZY WITH DOWNSLOPE 25 TO 35
MPH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE
MODELS LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
PACKAGE WILL ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DON`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME SPOTS ABOVE 9000 FT
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES AGAIN. IN TYPICAL EL-NINO FASHION...THE LATE
WEEK UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING...SO THINK THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL LIKELY SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH. UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS IS STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MESSY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EAST OUT OF THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BY SUNDAY...SO WE ADDED SOME
SMALL POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER
CEILINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE CLEARING-LINE
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF RAWLINS
AND SHOULD BE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HRRR DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE CURRENT RAIN ACTIVITY IS (EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA) AND DEPICTS MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF OUR REGION HERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING VFR EXPECTED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROMOTE NON-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1140 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR NOON AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

A FEW MINOR UPDATES ARE NECESSARY THIS MORNING. RECENT TRENDS IN
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. IN FACT...VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN OCCURRING ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WYO TO CHADRON NEB. MODELS ARE
NOT DOING VERY WELL HERE...WITH THE 12Z NAM STILL FAILING TO SHOW
MUCH OF ANYTHING OVER THOSE AREAS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. ADJUSTED POPS
AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED FORECAST
HIGHS AS MANY AREAS ARE STILL IN THE MID 40S...LOW/MID 60S SEEM
QUITE UNLIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS GIVEN WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AND LIGHT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS NOT CONDUCIVE TO WARMING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

TODAY...THE MODELS ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...PAINTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION NOW BREAKING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB
LAYERS WILL BE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WITH DOWNWARD MOTION AND QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DESCENT
NOTED IN THE AFTERNOON...LIMITING SHOWER COVERAGE. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS TODAY.

TONIGHT...NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVES INTO
WESTERN WYOMING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB
QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC LIFT. FORTUNATELY...LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL BE SCANT...THUS ONLY ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS PROVIDING
A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT... NO PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...SLOW MOVING AND RATHER POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WITH A QUITE IMPRESSIVE 100 KNOT 300 MB
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...DYNAMICS AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING...EXPECTING NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER CONVERSE AND WESTERN NIOBRARA
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
DEEPER MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO
ALLIANCE LINE...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FURTHER
SOUTH. QUITE WINDY AND BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
NORTHWEST WINDS AND PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS. WE MAY
NEED TO HOIST WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. HAVE COMPROMISED WITH NAM AND GFS FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CEASING IN THE EVENING AND LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANES AND THE DYNAMICS DROP OFF. DECENT LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...THOUGH KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO POTENTIALS BASED ON THE COLD AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETARD WARMING TREND...THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL FEEL WARMER DUE TO LESS WIND AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL
BREEZY TO WINDY THOUGH BASED ON PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

00Z MODELS DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOWER 48. VIGOROUS UPPER MIDWEST LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMTN WEST. THE
ECMWF FORMS A CUTOFF LOW OVER AZ BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS
CLOSING THE LOW OVER NM 24 HOURS LATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND LEESIDE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS 50S SATURDAY AND
LOW-MID 60S SUNDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S).

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER
CEILINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE CLEARING-LINE
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOUISTURE MOVING EAST OF RAWLINS
AND SHOULD BE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HRRR DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE CURRENT RAIN ACTIVITY IS (EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA) AND DEPICTS MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF OUR REGION HERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING VFR EXPECTED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

NO ISSUES OR CONCERNS BASED ON PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1151 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA
FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH TRANSLATING INTO THE WESTERN US ATTM. WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP
FREE UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH INCREASING PVA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. WV SAT
SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THE
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF UNTIL LATE. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN
A FEW HOURS BASED ON THIS THINKING. BEST LIFT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHERE WE KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE AFTER 18Z. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. NAM/GFS/ECM THERMAL PROFILES
SHOW H7 TEMPS AROUND 0C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY 18Z...SO
SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 8000-8500 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATIONS...OTHER THAN A COUPLE INCHES IN THE SNOWIES/SIERRA
MADRES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN
TODAY GIVEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION BENEATH THE
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 TO
8000 FEET. GFS ON TUESDAY SHOWS AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE MORNING WITH THE PASSING OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THIS WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GFS IS SHOWING 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KTS. BY WEDNESDAY
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVE OVERHEAD WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW SPLIT FLOW WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
STAYING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHICH WOULD KEEP POPS
LOW. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND ALSO ALONG
THE PINE RIDGE WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR OR
NEAR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR KRWL...KLAR...KCDR AND KAIA IN THE
09-13Z TIMEFRAME. SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON AT
KSNY AS SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS FOR MONDAY AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING FOR KCDR OFF THE PINE
RIDGE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

NON-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COOL/SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT EACH DAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...KC/CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

415 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG WAS OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY IMPROVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING.

RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER COVERAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
WARM FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHEAR IS STRONG. THE
KCAE 88D INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WAS NEAR 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS STORM ROTATION BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BECAUSE
OF A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE MODELS AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT SURFACED-BASED LI/S STAYING ABOVE ZERO
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT OR TROUGH. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY
THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE NAM
SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO -2 TO -5 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MOST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG BUT MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT H85 WINDS 30 TO
40 KNOTS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT WILL BE WARM BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL INDICATES
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE GFS LAMP HAS GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WE
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...BUT
WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE DRYING DISPLAYED BY THE MODELS WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ALL OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS. IT WILL BE A
WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH FURTHER DRYING FOR FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS WHICH ALL HAD POPS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE HIGHER DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY
IFR/LIFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT OGB. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED WHICH MAY FURTHER LOWER
VISIBILITIES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS TRY TO ERODE THE WEDGE
LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

338 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE ARE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. OBSERVATION TRENDS INDICATE THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.

DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

348 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MAJOR DEEPENING OF AN AUTUMN SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND IS THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. WEATHER
OF NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE MORNING MURKINESS FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
A SCATTERING OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S
FOR SOME THIS EVENING AND AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THURSDAY
WILL THEN SEE OUR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE AUTUMN SO FAR.

MULTIPLE STRONG SHORT WAVES ARE STILL SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING WITHIN A BROAD BUT PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE MIDDLE OF NORTH AMERICA. IT IS EVIDENT THAT
PHASING IS ONGOING BETWEEN ONE SUCH WAVE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER DIGGING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW OF 1002 MB NEAR THE QUAD CITIES WILL
DEEPEN AROUND 1MB/HR AS IT LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY.
WITH THE LOW PASSING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF THE RAIN-MODIFIED WARM SECTOR
INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S IF
NOT ABOVE 60 FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS
THAT AIR IS DRAGGED NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND
THUS KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND MURKY WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA AND ITS FORCING WITHIN
NEARLY 1.50 PWATS WILL KEEP POCKETS OF MORNING SHOWERS GOING TOO.

BY AFTERNOON...AN OVER 120 KT JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE PHASING
SYSTEM INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DRIVING ALIGNED AND DEEP
COLD ADVECTION TOWARD THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY THIS EVE...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO INCREASE WITH STEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING AROUND 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE. ALSO THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS DIVING RIGHT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...USUALLY A GOOD SIGN THAT SHOWERS WILL
FORM IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS AND HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH
OF THESE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE RAIN TIMING. RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER COOLS QUICKLY THAT
SHOWER UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ANY DURING EARLY EVE...COULD REACH
COOL ENOUGH LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF GRAUPEL.

THE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES MID-LATE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH THE EVE. FOR THE
COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTS COULD BE
HIGHER THAN THAT JUST BASED ON THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE
A QUICK DROP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL
TIME TOO. HAVE FORECAST HOURLY TRENDS NEAR LOCAL 8KM ARW WITH
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS GIVING THE AIR MORE OF A LOWER-MID 20S FEEL.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING KEEPING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN WI/MN/NORTHEAST IA. HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE
500MB LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH IS EVIDENT IN
GUIDANCE...AND THAT LOW MAGNITUDE IS WITHIN THE BOTTOM TWO
PERCENTILE OF LATE OCTOBER HEIGHTS. SO THE SIGNAL FOR THURSDAY TO
BE A DAY WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RISE IS STRONGER AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S IN SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS GIVEN THE
OVERCAST SKY AND CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT TIMES TO 35
MPH. ALSO COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS. IF
MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM ON CONDITIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT RIGHT
NOW THE ICE NUCLEI AREA IS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FROM WHAT LOOKS TO BE
SATURATED AND REACHED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AT LEAST IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING EXISTS
FOR SOME OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. HAVE BUMPED
UP FORECAST MINS BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN NORTH CENTRAL IL...WHERE
CLEARING WOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO BELOW FREEZING.

THE GFS AND EC ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A SPLIT
ACTIVE FLOW DURING THE START TO THE WEEKEND. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO TAP BACK SOME OF THE MOISTURE SHOVED
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. HAVE COLLABORATED GOING A LITTLE ABOVE RAIN
LIKELIHOOD FOR THE DAYTIME SATURDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND
IMPROVING CONSISTENCY...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES ON DURATION. THE 28.00 GFS WOULD SUGGEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY THE WHOLE AREA IS DRY. SO TRICK-OR-TREATERS
AND THEIR PARENTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST...BUT
RIGHT NOW THERE IS HOPE THAT THE EVENING COULD BE DRY. WINDS LOOK
TO BE SOUTHERLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAST THAT
EVENING.

TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WARM-UP DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
ANOMALY FORECAST BY THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
/NAEFS/ MEMBERS. IT IS NOT THAT COMMON TO SEE SOME OF THE ANOMALY
MAGNITUDE FOR HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOWING UP EIGHT
DAYS IN ADVANCE THAT ARE INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN CERTAINLY SHIFT THIS FAR OUT.
NONETHELESS...COULD BE A 70 DEGREE PLUS DAY OR TWO IN THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
VERY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY 30 KT OR HIGHER
LATE.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LIGHT...TO MODERATE AT TIMES...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...DO SEE COVERAGE
DIMINISHING OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FURTHER
LOWER FROM IFR TO LIFR DURING THAT TIME WHILE VIS STAYS DOWN DUE
TO DRIZZLE/FOG. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY AS CEILINGS FINALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. WHILE THE
PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS EVENING...AND WHILE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN
IN PLACE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...FURTHER SHIFTING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY
AND INCREASING. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE WINDS AT THIS
TIME...WITH GUSTS STILL POSSIBLY REACHING 30KT OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...SLGT CHC MORNING SHRA/MVFR...BUT PRIMARILY VFR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE SHRA WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MONDAY...SLGT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

RATZER

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

SEVERAL PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES ONCE AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SOME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FROM
GALES TO 30 KT WINDS...WITH A FURTHER DIMINISHING TREND TO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF REMAIN AROUND GALES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
SPEEDS PERSISTING JUST UP TO MID MORNING TODAY. SIMILAR TO THE
SOUTH HALF...SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS AN APPROACHING LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND
DEEPENS...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BACK TO
GALES TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION TO GALES WILL
LIKELY BE QUICK STARTING WITH THE NEARSHORE AND SOUTH HALF...AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH HALF. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH HIGHER END GALES TO 45 KT STILL LIKELY FOR A
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

332 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING...WITH LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.

* VARYING WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
VERY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY 30 KT OR HIGHER
LATE.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...SLGT CHC MORNING SHRA/MVFR...BUT PRIMARILY VFR. GUSTY
WEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE SHRA WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MONDAY...SLGT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

RATZER

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN CHANGING UP THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING LINE GETTING
THROUGH THE ERN SITES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

UPDATE...WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA NOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES
BRINGING THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL FOG...WITH WINDS LIGHT AND
SOILS SATURATED. HAVE THUS BROUGHT PATCHY FOG IN SOONER IN LATEST
UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 58 83 58 79 / 0 0 10 10
LCH 61 83 61 81 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 61 82 64 81 / 0 0 10 20
BPT 62 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 10

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

134 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

DESPITE THICKENING MID/HI CLDS AHEAD OF A LO PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD
THE GREAT LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR INITIALLY MAINTAINED BY A
STEADY/GUSTY ESE WIND WL HOLD VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
ARND SUNRISE EVEN AFTER SOME -RA ARRIVES FM THE SW. BUT AS THIS ESE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO PRES TAPS MOISTER AIR AND FALLING RA MOISTENS
THE LLVLS...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORE QUICKLY TO MVFR THEN IFR AND
LIFR WITHIN A COUPLE HRS. THESE AUSTERE CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THRU
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT CMX AND IWD WITH A WSHFT TO THE WNW
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LO OVER LK SUP LATE IN THE AFTN
STILL PRSENTING AN UPSLOPE WIND UNDER LINGERING COMMA HEAD/DEEPER
MSTR. THIS WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION AT SAW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE
MID LVL DRY SLOTTING WL ALLOW FOR AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THERE THIS EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ251-267.

GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ248>250-265-266.

GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ240>245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LMZ221-
248-250.

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

356 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

As of this morning, the majority of precipitation has shifted east
of the forecast area, with low clouds remaining in place. On the
edge of the low clouds across SE KS, NE OK, and SW MO, dense fog has
developed. Do not expect widespread dense fog to develop over the
CWA, but certainly patchy fog can be expected through mid-morning.
As drier and cooler air moves into the region, clouds will clear
from west to east during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm
into the middle 50s to lower 60s by mid-afternoon. The pressure
gradient will strengthen today as low pressure deepens as it moves
into the western Great Lakes region, resulting in breezy northwest
winds during the daylight hours before the boundary layer decouples
this evening. As wind speeds relax and skies become clear tonight,
the stage will be set for good radiational cooling. Low temperatures
are expected to fall into the lower to middle 30s in most areas
outside of the KC Metro area. Patchy frost may be possible in many
areas, especially low-lying areas where cold-air drainage will be
the most prominent. Widespread frost may be mitigated due to the
drier air moving into the area and northwest winds remaining around
5-10 mph. Still, in sheltered, low-lying areas, frost will be a good
possibility, and any sensitive vegetation should be accounted for.

A reinforcing shot of cool air will keep temperatures below normal
on Thursday with highs in the 50s. High pressure will move into the
CWA Thursday night, with another night of similar temperatures in
the lower to middle 30s and a subsequent shot of frost. High
pressure will move off to the east on Friday in advance of the next
upper system, with southerly winds and moisture returning. Models
are in decent agreement with widespread showers returning to the
area beginning Friday afternoon and ending late Saturday. The best
chance for rainfall will come Friday night into Saturday morning,
where one-half inch of precipitation on average is expected. Based
on the anticipated evolution of the upper troughs, little cold air
advection is expected upon the systems departure. Therefore
temperatures will remain seasonably warm Sunday through mid-week. In
fact, highs in the lower 70s are possible each day in some areas
early next week. Dry weather is expected Sunday into Tuesday before
precipitation chances increase as the next large upper trough moves
into the central CONUS on Wednesday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Patchy fog has developed across the area this evening behind the
departing system and a few of the terminals have been bouncing
between LIFR and IFR conditions. The HRRR hi-res model still shows
LIFR and IFR vsby overnight, beginning to dissipate by 11-13Z. NW
winds will increase late tomorrow morning with sustained winds of
15-20 kts...gusting 20-25 kts...by early afternoon. Winds will
decrease near sunset as diurnal mixing ends.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1223 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

451 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

ALOFT: AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPR-LVL PATTERN WAS EVOLVING AND
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THE LONGWAVE TROF WAS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...
WITH A VERY COLD/COMPACT UPR LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THE TROF WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK WHILE
THE LOW WILL CONT SE...MAKING A CYCLONIC LOOP INTO THE MIDWEST
TODAY AND TURNING NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS
POTENT AND WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 525 DM. NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL HERE
THRU TONIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL.

SURFACE: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT
WAS JUST S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE EVOLUTION ALOFT WILL SEND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TO
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
IN THIS EVE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES QUICKLY DROPS S AND INTO WRN NEB
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

A FEW SHWRS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF A LINE FROM ORD-YORK. SOME
MESONET SITES IN HOWARD AND POLK COUNTIES DID MEASURE .01-.02".
THESE SHWRS CLEARED THE FCST AREA BY 330 AM.

TODAY: M/SUNNY AND WINDY. TEMPS REALLY WON`T BE THAT MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH THE WIND. WE
PROBABLY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY AS NAM/GFS/RAP CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME HIGH RH IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER ADVECTING
SE. YOU CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF IT UPSTREAM OVER ERN WY. THIS WILL IN
A SWATH OF STRATOCU FORMING AROUND 5K FT BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO AROUND 7K FT AS THE BL EXPANDS...IN ADDITION
TO SOME ALTOCU MOVING IN.

WIND: WE MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WINDS. MIXING WILL BE VERY DEEP
(AROUND 8K FT). USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH
WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

WE COULD BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS N OF HWY 6.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA HAVE THE TOP OF THE BL MIXING INTO 50-55
KTS AT 7-8K FT. THE ALGORITHM PEAK GUST POTENTIAL IS CONCERNING.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE HRRR MAX GUSTS ARE 35-40 KTS.

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH
LARGELY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST...EXCEPT
NUDGING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY S OF HWY 6 TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE SNAG IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER.

TONIGHT: FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. VERY COLD. TONIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EVEN WITH THE WIND REMAINING
5-15 MPH. BELIEVE THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL BE AT OR BELOW FRZG BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THIS. USED MAV
MOS WHICH IS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME
STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.

THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET. PLEASE SEE THE STORY ON THE TOP OF OUR
WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.

NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HEADING INTO NOVEMBER AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BY THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY...BUT AFTER THAT FEATURE PASSES TO THE
EAST...THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SOLID ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ENSUE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES. I STUCK IN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST STARTS TO GET GOING AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN AIR
TOWARD THE SURFACE. PROBABLY NOT IN TIME FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BY 12Z
FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE ME FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH SPRINKLES
IN THERE. I THOUGH ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL HERE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ME TO
STICK THIS IN JUST YET...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT EAST
COMPONENT WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND EXPECTED. SREF
ENSEMBLES DO NOT INDICATE MUCH FOG POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
EITHER...SO I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT LEAVING THIS OUT.

MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND I WAS
TEMPTED TO START PUTTING IN CATEGORICAL CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE JUST NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN AS I WOULD HAVE
ANTICIPATED...AND I HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY A
STRATIFORM RAIN SITUATION AND SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE MOIST IN A DEEP
LAYER WITH A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THEREFORE...I WENT
WITH RAIN RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
MUCAPES INDICATE THAT THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHUT OFF AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. INITIALLY...I WAS CONCERNED THAT WIND MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION...I DECIDED TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT THEM TO THE WEST A LITTLE
STRONGER/SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO DO SO. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AS THE CANADIAN APPEARS SLOWEST...BUT WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN THIS CASE.

WE SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMING UP AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT WEST. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF THE
REACH OF ANY IMPULSES THAT ARE KICKED UP BY THIS DEEPENING
TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE CIGS BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF VFR SHWR OR SOME SPRINKLES. NW WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO VARIABILITY
IN CIGS.

WED: WINDY. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z LEAVING VFR. A
FEW ALTOCU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 7K FT. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED THRU 06Z: VFR SKC. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ075>077-
082>087.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

413 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

...NW WINDS GUST 40-50 MPH OVER S-CNTRL NEB TODAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVING TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

A FEW SHWRS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF A LINE FROM ORD-YORK. SOME
MESONET SITES IN HOWARD AND POLK COUNTIES DID MEASURE .01-.02".
THESE SHWRS CLEARED THE FCST AREA BY 330 AM.

WIND: WE MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WINDS. MIXING WILL BE VERY DEEP
(AROUND 8K FT). USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH
WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

WE COULD BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS N OF HWY 6.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA HAVE THE TOP OF THE BL MIXING INTO 50-55
KTS AT 7-8K FT. THE ALGORITHM PEAK GUST POTENTIAL IS CONCERNING.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE HRRR MAX GUSTS ARE 35-40 KTS.

TONIGHT: FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME
STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.

THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET. PLEASE SEE THE STORY ON THE TOP OF OUR
WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

WED: WINDY. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z LEAVING VFR. A
FEW ALTOCU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 7K FT. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED THRU 06Z: VFR SKC. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ075>077-
082>087.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 1500 TO
3000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER TO 10000 FT AGL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING OCCURRING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS AROUND
3500 FT AGL WILL CLIMB TO 10000 FT AGL DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED WEDS EVE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

349 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COASTAL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MORE-HUMID AIR WILL
RETREAT INLAND AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA TODAY...BENEATH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN GET SWEPT OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THU WILL USHER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EASTERN US FOR FRI AND SAT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE DUE TO RAIN
AND/OR LIGHT FOG...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO WELL MIXED TO CAUSE AREAS
OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST AND PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FINAL WAVE WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS AREA THE AREA. WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT LIKELY AIDING THE 70-78
DEGREE HIGHS THAT RESULT FROM DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 900-850MB. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SHOW A SHALLOW
BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
FRIDAY...THOUGH LIKELY TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OTHER NWP.

MODEST COLD ADVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION... WILL DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWS 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT....WITH THICKNESSES
ABOUT 10M BELOW NORMAL AND THE RESULTING TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

THE FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CUT OFF BY SUNDAY...BUT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AND
SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY MONDAY. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT MORE LIKELY MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF AND GFS ACTUALLY SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TEMPORALLY AS
THE WAVE CROSSES NC MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE AMPLITUDE AND THE
RESULTING PRECIP PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE VARY ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ONLY AVERAGE AT BEST. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING COOL AND SATURATED COLD AIR DAMMING AIR
MASS. A WARMER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...BETWEEN 30-40 KTS AT AROUND 1500 FT...WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

BOTH THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COASTAL FRONT --MID TO LATE MORNING AT FAY
AND RWI...AND MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT-- AND
CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE A BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND TO
DEVELOP...AND A SCATTERING OF THE LOW CEILINGS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER...AT LEAST ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING SHOWERS THAT WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT. AN
ISOLATED STORM MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS BETWEEN 14Z-20Z...WITH A
BAND OR TWO OF STORMS --SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE-- THEN PROBABLE BETWEEN
21Z-03Z...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT ACCOMPANYING A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE COASTAL FRONT WILL GET SWEPT TO THE COAST AND CONSEQUENTLY END
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...BUT A RESIDUALLY
MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THU...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. VFR
CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL UNTIL A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS TO
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

234 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 MILE RANGE DUE TO RAIN
AND/OR LIGHT FOG...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO WELL MIXED TO CAUSE AREAS
OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...

PLAN TO HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH CHANCE-LIKELY CATEGORIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS PRECIP CHARACTER BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

150 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY RAIN
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR NOW. GETTING A DRY PUNCH INTO THE TUG FORK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA. WILL
ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE GULF
COAST...WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION AT 18Z...WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AREA INTO OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SEE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS START TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. WITH THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING TO SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS...ALONG WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS WITH PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...STILL LOOKING LIKE INVERSION TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME OF
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN...HOWEVER...DO HAVE SOME
GUSTS OVERNIGHT APPROACHING OR HITTING THE 40 KT GUST MARK ALONG
THE HIGHER PEAKS. BUT OVERALL...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A
WIND HEADLINE...BUT WILL HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR...AND WILL
ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG PEAKS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SWEEPING AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS THAT EASTERN ZONES WILL BE GREATER THREAT AREA.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SYSTEM PULLING UP INTO ERN CANADA THU WHIPS A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA WED NT AND FIRST THING THU MORNING...THE
SECOND FRONT MIXING THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK OVER ANY ERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IT HAS NOT REACHED BY DAWN. STRONG COLD AS
WELL AS DRY ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE WIND FIELDS BECOMING MORE ALIGNED...THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
WELL MIXED...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY AS
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER COOLS.

THERE MAY STILL BE THUNDER WED EVENING...BUT LOSS OF HEATING WILL
QUICKLY ERADICATE WHAT LITTLE CAPE THERE IS ON WED. WITH THAT AND
THE INITIAL FRONT WASHING OUT...THE THUNDER WILL QUICKLY COME TO
AN END...AND THE SHOWERS WILL WANE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE ONE
LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT...AS IT
WHIPS THROUGH LATE WED NT INTO THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE ANY MORNING SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE E THU MORNING...AND
DRIER AIR TAKING OVER WILL PROVIDE CLEARING DESPITE THE COOLING
ATOP THE MIXING LAYER. THE MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS...UP
TO 30 KTS...THU.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS THU NT AND FRI...ALONG
WITH A DEARTH OF CLOUD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON DIURNAL IN THE COLD ADVECTION...WITH A
SLOW FALL WED NT BUT A MINIMAL RISE ON THU. BLENDED IN THE MET FOR
LOWER VALUES IN THE E THU NT. HIGHS FRI LOOKED GOOD WITH LOWLAND
VALUES JUST BELOW 60F ON H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 0C.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED TO BE REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. WHILE THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WX THRU
SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
UNSETTLED. THE CULPRIT BEING AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW
CONUS AND INTERACTING WITH THE N STREAM. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
WITH AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
TIMING OF GREATEST RAIN THREAT. FOLLOWED WPC IN ROLLING WITH THE
SLOWER ECWMF WHICH WOULD MAKE MONDAY THE WETTEST.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT BKW AND EKN
THROUGH AROUND 15Z TODAY...BUT WILL STILL SEE GUSTS TO 20KTS AFTER
AS THE WINDS START TO VEER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL TOO TURBULENT FOR LOW CEILINGS. MVFR AT BKW
GIVEN THE UPSLOPING NATURE...AND THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
ALL SITES. WIND SHIFTS AND INCREASED GUSTS AGAIN SHOULD BE NOTED.

VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS TODAY WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE
VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE THE CAUSE FOR AN INCREASED GUST AT
EACH SITE.

ADDED LLWS TO CKB. TOUGH CALL FOR THE LOWLAND SITES...AS IT
APPEARS THE WIND IS LARGELY TURBULENT IN NATURE. RAP FORECAST
MODEL INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR LLWS TO BE AT CKB...SO WILL
ROLL WITH THAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MAY NEED LLWS TO BE ADDED TO
CRW.

DATE WED 10/28/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY IS POSSIBLE.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL/30
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

.AVIATION...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER FAR NW OK WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SE
OVERNIGHT...BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF
STRONG/GUSTY NW-N WINDS AND A FEW SHRA/RA BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
MAY SUBSIDE IN PARTS OF OK BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE FRONT/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES AWAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE S TO W...OR VARIABLE. SOME FG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND EAST OF KPNC-KSNL-KADH-KDUA FROM NOW UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR I-40. ALSO...ADDED THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. FINALLY...ADDED PATCHY
FOG MENTION EAST OF I-35 TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES LATE WEEK... WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH A STEADY WARM
UP TO HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S.

JTK

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/23/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

210 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT TUESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. COLD AIR WEDGE STILL IN PLACE BUT BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG LLJ IMPINGES ON THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS AND THE PARENT SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST. BANDS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND OCCASIONAL -DZ WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WED WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

BY MIDDAY...THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO A WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING
CIGS TO BECOME BKN AND LIFT TO MVFR AT WORST. THE STEADY -RA/-DZ
WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES. DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...A STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT LEAST ONE BAND OF INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY IS MARGINAL...SO FOR NOW HAVE
JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SUCH AT MOST SITES...CONFINING
THUNDER TO KDAN.

AFT 00Z...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...WITH TYPICAL UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BLF/LWB/BCB...WITH BKN MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS
STRONG LLJ TRANSLATES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
WV. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SFC...WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2000 FT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 13045KTS - 13050KTS UNTIL ABOUT
15Z.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ENE-ESE THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN
BECOME SSE-SSW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. SPEEDS STRONGEST IN GENERAL WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...GENERALLY 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS...MOSTLY 6-8KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THU...DIMINISHING FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL COME SUNDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...DS/NF/RAB
HYDROLOGY...RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

633 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR...EXCEPT MVFR/VFR AT OGB. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CIGS MAY AGAIN LOWER TO IFR LEVELS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1057 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS MORNING AS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN INCREASE IN BOTH DRIZZLE AND
SHOWERS...LIKELY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING.
LOW END IFR HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH THIS
INCREASE IN PRECIP THIS MORNING FEEL THAT CEILINGS WILL STILL
LIKELY FALL TO LIFR FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...WHILE VIS FALLS TO
2-4 MILES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIT LATE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH THE
COVERAGE OF THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND SO HAVE LEFT AS A
VCSH AT THIS TIME. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...WINDS WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT BECOMING LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUE.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH SHOWER TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

908 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR/LIFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

650 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR/LIFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING TO WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR
HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE AND VIS TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1018 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD TSRA TO
GRIDS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD MOVING NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME RATHER LARGE BREAKS ALSO
PRESENT. STRATUS IS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE SW AS SOMEWHAT DRIER
LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. SKY GRIDS CAPTURE THIS TREND PRETTY WELL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSES AROUND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WORKING ACROSS MO/NW AR/E OK PER WATER VAPOR. MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN ASSOCIATED FORCING WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN RATHER DRY DEEP LAYER
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTING EAST COAST. BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH OF FORCING EXPECT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF I-20 LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN COLD AIR IN MID LEVELS AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW TSRA LOOK POSSIBLE AS WELL. LATEST HRRR
DOES SHOW A FEW STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES AND HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC GENERAL TSRA OUTLOOK.
AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF BUT SOME
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WILL KEEP
RISK OF WIDELY SCT SHRA AROUND. HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE SWD EXTENT AS WELL...AND CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO GRASP EXPECTED SETUP
WELL WITH WARMER MAXES IN SW WHERE MORE SUN AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS SHOULD EXIST. NO CHANGES MADE. /AEG/

.AVIATION...
WIDSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS
MIXING AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS CIGS TO LIFT AND STRATUS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE. AT THIS POINT RISK OF SHRA/TSRA APPEARS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES...WILL MONITOR FOR 18Z ISSUANCE. /AEG/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF TODAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS PRESENT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...PRIMARILY
MEANDERING ABOUT NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE ACROSS MY WEST...SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING. THIS
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN A STILL MOIST AIRMASS...WHERE WET GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN...WILL YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LOCALES MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FIRST THING THIS MORNING.

AGAIN...THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING AND FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE DELTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
RACES EAST INTO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUIT LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WHILE LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE AS THEY RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT DOES NOT
LOOK TO HANG AROUND VERY LONG. DIGGING MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE SW
US/NW MEX WILL PUT THE AREA BACK INTO SW FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT FORMS OVER W TX.
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL BREAK OUT RATHER QUICKLY OVER TX DUE TO
INCREASED WIND FIELD AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.

WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER/STRONGER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE INLINE NOW. SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE ARKLAMISS SATURDAY MORNING. MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WIND THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE AREA THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH 35-45
KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH. WITH THESE SHEAR VALUES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR A FEW BRIEF...WEAK TORNADOES IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.

MORE OF A HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD CORE MOVES ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. VERTICAL TOTALS
IN THE UPPER 20S...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES NEAR 500 AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THIS HAIL THREAT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS IT PUSHES EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SW FLOW RECOMENCES TUESDAY AS YET
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DIGS OUT WEST. /26/

AVIATION...IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FOR A
SHORT TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURRBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
RAC EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE...AT A MINIMUM...MVFR CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS. THESE WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 77 60 76 53 / 10 17 6 6
MERIDIAN 74 59 75 50 / 14 16 7 7
VICKSBURG 78 58 75 52 / 10 15 6 6
HATTIESBURG 79 62 79 57 / 10 10 12 5
NATCHEZ 78 60 76 56 / 10 12 6 6
GREENVILLE 75 55 74 50 / 17 15 6 6
GREENWOOD 74 55 74 49 / 17 16 6 6

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

631 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

...NW WINDS GUST 40-50 MPH OVER S-CNTRL NEB TODAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVING TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

A FEW SHWRS DID DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF A LINE FROM ORD-YORK. SOME
MESONET SITES IN HOWARD AND POLK COUNTIES DID MEASURE .01-.02".
THESE SHWRS CLEARED THE FCST AREA BY 330 AM.

631 AM UPDATE: 06Z GFS/NAM AND THE LATEST RAP CONT TO INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL RH MOVING IN 7-9K FT AND IT`S ON SATELLITE OVER THE
PANHANDLE/SW SD/ERN WY HEADING THIS WAY. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED
TO P/CLOUDY FOR TODAY AND SOME AREAS WILL TURN M/CLOUDY FOR A
TIME. THIS WILL PROBABLY PUT A CAP ON WINDS AND INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY IN MAX WIND GUSTS.

WIND: WE MAY BE UNDERDONE ON WINDS. MIXING WILL BE VERY DEEP
(AROUND 8K FT). USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS WHICH
WAS THE HIGHEST AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

WE COULD BE CLOSE TO MEETING HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS N OF HWY 6.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA HAVE THE TOP OF THE BL MIXING INTO 50-55
KTS AT 7-8K FT. THE ALGORITHM PEAK GUST POTENTIAL IS CONCERNING.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE HRRR MAX GUSTS ARE 35-40 KTS.

TONIGHT: FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

THIS AIR MASS IS COMING FROM SRN ALBERTA AND THERE ARE SOME
STATIONS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH 8-11 KTS OF WIND AT 08Z.

THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT
EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET. PLEASE SEE THE STORY ON THE TOP OF OUR
WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.

NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HEADING INTO NOVEMBER AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY...BUT AFTER THAT FEATURE PASSES TO
THE EAST...THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SOLID ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
ENSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. I STUCK IN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST STARTS TO GET GOING AND
BEGINS TO MOISTEN AIR TOWARD THE SURFACE. PROBABLY NOT IN TIME FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAKE ME FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE WITH SPRINKLES IN THERE. I THOUGH ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL
HERE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ME TO STICK THIS IN JUST YET...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND EXPECTED. SREF ENSEMBLES DO NOT INDICATE MUCH FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD EITHER...SO I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT
LEAVING THIS OUT.

MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND I
WAS TEMPTED TO START PUTTING IN CATEGORICAL CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE JUST NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN AS I WOULD
HAVE ANTICIPATED...AND I HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY A
STRATIFORM RAIN SITUATION AND SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE MOIST IN A DEEP
LAYER WITH A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THEREFORE...I WENT
WITH RAIN RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
MUCAPES INDICATE THAT THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHUT OFF AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT. MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. INITIALLY...I WAS CONCERNED THAT WIND MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION...I DECIDED TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT THEM TO THE WEST A LITTLE
STRONGER/SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO DO SO. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AS THE CANADIAN APPEARS SLOWEST...
BUT WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN THIS CASE.

WE SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMING UP AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT WEST. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF
THE REACH OF ANY IMPULSES THAT ARE KICKED UP BY THIS DEEPENING
TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

SIGNIFICANT ISSUES: NW WIND GUST UP TO 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY: STILL SOME PATCHES STRATOCU 2000-2500 FT BUT MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MOVE E SHORTLY. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF AN
MVFR CIG YET THRU 15Z...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WON`T LAST
LONG IF IT OCCURS. THEN VFR CIGS INVADE 7-9K FT. NW WINDS INCREASE
AND GUST 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR SKC AND WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ075>077-
082>087.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

558 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPR LOW WAS INVOF THE MN/IA BORDER AT 21Z. SOLID BAND OF RAIN
PRODUCING AROUND 3/4 INCH OF RAIN IN 2 HRS WAS LIFTING NEWD THRU
THE CWA. ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...SHWRS WERE INCREASING WITH SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN VA.

BASED ON RADAR AND STLT...HAVE TWEAKED THE FCST SLIGHTLY TO
INDICATE RAIN THIS EVE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SCT
TSTMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE PCPN...BUT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY AT LEAST SOME
LGT RAIN AND/DZ IS LIKELY...THEREFORE THE CHANGE.

OTHERWISE...FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVIEST SHWRS
AND TSTMS WITH THE RR QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET LATE TNGT.

WRT WINDS...AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE WRMFNT...GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN RATHER
STRONG. NO WIND RELATED HEADLINES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...OR A STRONG GUST OF 45 TO 50
MPH. GUSTS THOUGH DEPEND ON IF WINDS ALOFT MIX THROUGH THE
INVERSION...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY.

CHC OF 50+ MPH GUSTS IN ANY STRONGER TSTMS LATE TNGT.

FOG IS EXPECTED AS WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTS OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
12Z...LIKELY CLEAR OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 12Z. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER INITIALLY FOR
EASTERN LOCALES...THEN MINIMAL POPS THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS DRIER AIR COUNTERS ANY LINGERING WEAK LIFT ALOFT. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT TRAVERSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

A VERY WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER A WARM START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
ONSET OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.

A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON CU WILL SCATTER
BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WESTERN DEEP TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE DEVELOP INTO A BLOCKY PATTERN.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OPENS AND
WEAKENS..MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY EAST. THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS MUCH OF FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IN
PLACE. WARM ADVECTION SETS UP LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN. THE GFS DOES DRY UP THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WET. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL
RAINFALL IF ANY DOES OCCUR.

WITH THE NORTHERN STEAM WAVE PASSING SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ONCE
AGAIN WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS SUNDAY DAMPENS AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND EVEN THROUGH WPC BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH OPTED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN AND
HEIGHTS ARE RISING. WEDNESDAY DRY EITHER WAY AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NEARLY DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH OFFSHORE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP THE BLOCKY PATTERN.

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE CONTINUOUS. CONDITIONS COULD OCCASIONALLY
DROP BELOW IFR. SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH IN TIMING AND PLACING FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAF. THERE COULD BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW...CITY TERMINALS TO N/W
PERHAPS 04-07Z AND TO THE EAST...PERHAPS 07Z-10Z WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS SE-S AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT WILL
LOWER SLIGHTLY TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO NEAR 50-60KT AT 2KFT.
IMPACTS DUE TO COMPRESSION/LLWS ARE LIKELY.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND WIND
CHANGES. FLIGHT CAT COULD DROP TO LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE CATEGORY AND
WIND CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU...VFR. WSW TO W WINDS G20KT.
.FRI...VFR. WSW WINDS G20KT.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.MON...VFR.

.MARINE...
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST...E-SE GALES
SHIFT SE-S THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT AT THIS TIME AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE
TO CRITERIA.

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.

SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL BE QUITE ROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE
SLOWLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT REMAIN RATHER ROUGH FOR
QUITE SOME TIME.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO
NEAR 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY...THEN SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WATERS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. DUE NOT EXPECT FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
AND RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MINOR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A
LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FREEPORT GAUGE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MOST OTHER LOCALES.

THE NIGHT TIME HIGH TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOWER...SO SIMILAR
DEPARTURES WILL BRING LEVELS CLOSE TO BENCHMARKS.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.

ADDITIONALLY...MINOR BEACH EROSION ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SURF
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

405 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
COVERING THE CENTRAL CONUS AND QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN IN A ZONE BETWEEN
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS
BEEN STREAMING NORTH AND EAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
PROVIDING SOME OF THE FUEL FOR THE SCT SHOWERS SEEN THROUGHOUT
TODAY. RECENTLY HAVE SEEN A GOOD PUSH EASTWARD OF MUCH DRIER AIR
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PENINSULA...WHICH AS ACTED TO NOW SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS PUSH AS BEEN
THE RESULT OF A STRONGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

THIS ENERGY PASSES BY THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE LOSS OF ITS
MOMENTUM...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOWLY OF THE EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRIER AIR. THIS IS INDEED SHOWN BY MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS WHICH HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING THE DEEP
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORT MYERS AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS
ALIGNED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...FINALLY STALLING OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TONIGHT...
THE SLOW RETREAT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND UNDERNEATH THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS. WILL KEEP A
30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 1/4 INCH. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WHERE
LATE NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 70S DOWN AROUND FORT MYERS.

DECENT FALL DAY IN STORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING WILL BE ENDING...ALLOWING FOR A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR ALL
ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN CHARLOTTE/LEE
COUNTIES...THE REMAINING ZONES WILL BE RAIN FREE ALL DAY. A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY END UP A BIT COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE NOW
RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT THINK THESE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...BUT THEN GO BACK TO EASTERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AND
RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW
GENERALLY CONFINED DOWN TOWARD KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. BRIEF VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS FOR THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AREAS/WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH
FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS BACK TO AN EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS
AT TIMES INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHERLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THEN STALLS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AHEAD THIS FRONT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR
NORTH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AGAIN SHIFTING OUR WINDS BACK
TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. AFTER THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITHE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE.

FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES LOOKS TO BE
GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER SOME
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF DESOTO...
HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES AS WELL. THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 82 68 84 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 73 85 70 87 / 40 40 10 0
GIF 69 86 66 85 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 72 81 67 83 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 66 84 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 72 82 70 83 / 10 0 0 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

436 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THE EVENING...UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEGUN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL GA WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...THE LACK ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES IN BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION MID-LEVEL
DRYING WOULD SUPPORT ENHANCED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT ROTATION...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE.
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT CELL STRENGTH DUE TO
LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. THE HRRR INDICATES A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE
DECENT LOW-LEVEL MIXING TONIGHT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WILL INDICATE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI/FRI NT...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SATURDAY...ENSURING A FAIR AND DRY DAY WITH NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. GFS AND
ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE IN INDICATING MAIN UPPER FLOW TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS REGION AND CUTS OFF BY SUN...AND MOVES SLOWLY NE TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE AS UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/FLORIDA VICINITY. RESULTANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION
MAINLY SUN/MON. ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND IN
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST...NEAR OGB...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY PREVENT
FOG FORMATION AND FAVOR LOW STRATUS. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
15 TO 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL ROTATE
TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

124 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE EVENING...UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEGUN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL GA WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WILL INDICATE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR NOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRI/FRI NT...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SATURDAY...ENSURING A FAIR AND DRY DAY WITH NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. GFS AND
ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE IN INDICATING MAIN UPPER FLOW TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS REGION AND CUTS OFF BY SUN...AND MOVES SLOWLY NE TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE AS UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/FLORIDA VICINITY. RESULTANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION
MAINLY SUN/MON. ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES
AND SOME DIURNAL WARMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY LIMIT COVERAGE.

WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO THE CSRA HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL. LESS CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
EFFECTING THE OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY PREVENT FOG
FORMATION AND FAVOR LOW STRATUS. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE
MORE CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1242 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE AREA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO THE CSRA HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL. LESS CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
EFFECTING THE OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1233 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

MTF

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* LOWER MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

* WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AROUND 30 KT OR HIGHER.

* SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PRODUCE...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VIS
AND A SOME SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRNETLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS. HOWEVER...THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY...OR SHORTLY
AFTER 18 UTC. OTHERWISE...CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ABOVE
1000 FT AGL AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE. A STRONGER
PUSH OF COLD AIR...WITH A STRONG ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME STRONGER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH ARRIVES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING UP IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE
FOR A PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTWARD CANADA. MVFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH WITH CEILING TRENDS.

* HIGH WITH WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM WITH SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE FRI NGT.

SATURDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
325 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

SEVERAL BROKEN LINES/BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING A FEW EMBEDDED ENHANCED ECHOES AS
WELL. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AGAIN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH IT WILL THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL RETURN. SEEING SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS LINE OF THINKING FROM
THE HRRR AS WELL. BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRYING AND FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY BEFORE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS STILL A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEMS EXIT
MONDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN COOL AND
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD FROM TX
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN. RAIN WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER DRIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY BUT THEN BE SEASONABLE
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN FURTHER WEST IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT BASES OF MVFR CIGS TO RISE A BIT INTO LOW VFR TERRITORY BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DROP BACK DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS RETURN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLOW OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 10 KTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1135 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

The RAP model indicates a warm nose at around 850 mb should prevent
updrafts from reaching the freezing level today, thus tstms were
removed from the forecast for today/tonight. A combination of some
measurable light showers and patchy drizzle should be expected
today, mainly east of the MS River. The cloud cover forecast will
remain a challenge, as temporary holes keep opening up in the
thinner spots. Some lingering moisture combined with cyclonic flow
aloft should keep a small chance of measurable pcpn in the ern third
of the PAH forecast area past 00Z Thu.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

The 00Z guidance is in reasonable agreement in pivoting a
mid/upper-level trough northeast through the region through 18Z
today, and effectively pushing the tangible rain/TS northeast and
east of our region mostly by 12Z. As this trough reaches Wisconsin
it will carve out a very intense and compact upper low.

Energy rotating around the low may touch off a few showers or
even thunderstorms very late this afternoon or this evening over
the Evansville Tri State and the Pennyrile region of west
Kentucky. Any convection that develops will move rapidly eastward,
so heavy rainfall is not really a concern even with the heavy
rains that have fallen over the last 24-36 hours. Sporadic
lightning will be the primary hazard with any thunderstorms later
today.

Temperature guidance is rather tightly packed for most of the
short term period, so stayed close to the consensus for highs and
lows for the most part through Friday. However, with the surface
high overhead Thursday night, went just a bit below guidance for
lows.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

Average confidence in the long term period due to slight model
differences as two weather systems affect the area.

Precipitation chances make their way into the forecast at the very
beginning of the long term period as system #1 approaches from the
plains. As this system moves slowly across the region it will
generate precipitation over our CWA through Saturday night, with the
highest probability being on Saturday. If this scenario pans out, it
will certainly put a damper on Halloween activities.

No sooner than this system moves off to the east, system #2 lifting
northeast out of the southern plains will produce overrunning
precipitation across our region starting Sunday. Models are
indicating elevated instability over the area Sunday and Sunday
night, so threw in isolated thunder chances for those two periods.
Precipitation chances from this system should continue area wide
through Monday, then linger over the far northeast sections Monday
night before departing to the northeast.

Beyond that our CWA should be dry due to rising heights aloft and
high pressure at the surface.

Temperatures at the very beginning of the period should be slightly
below normal with readings warming to above normal beyond that.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 727 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

Patchy drizzle is expected early this morning, with some vsby
reductions mainly east of the Wabash River. IFR conditions will
yield to MVFR or VFR during the morning or afternoon, depending on
how far east the terminal is. Swrly winds are expected to pick up
from the west southwest today, with gusts into the teens expected in
most places throughout the area in the afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected through the evening as the winds subside to around 5 kts.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DB
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

337 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN U.P.
WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING MID LEVEL
LOW WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A
MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDER EXISTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH INTO SE MI IS HELPING DECREASE THE COVERAGE
OF THE STEADY RAINS THAT PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WEALTH OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN DZ OVER MOST OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS OF ACTUAL SHOWERS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE THETA E PLUME LIFTS NE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AROUND 05-09Z. MODELS SHOW LOW CAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES...AND SKINNY CAPE AT THAT LOCATED FROM THE SFC UP TO
AROUND 8KFT. IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK CAPE...SHOWALTER INDEX BRIEFLY
DIP NEGATIVE AND COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN LL LAPSE RATES. 850MB/500MB
TEMPS WILL DROP TO -5C/-30C BY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM SECTION.

.LONG TERM...06Z TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WITH REGARD TO TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN
THINKING. THIS DYNAMICALLY INTENSE FEATURE WILL RACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RAW GUIDANCE CANNOT CAPTURE
WIND GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO THE FRONT`S COMPACT HORIZONTAL SCALE.
HOWEVER, ARW/NMM PROGS SHOW HINTS AT SUSTAINED 20+KTS WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE FINALLY CONFIRMING PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH SIMULATED WIND GUST SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS
WITH FROPA. THIS IS SUPPORTED METEOROLOGICALLY BY INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE NOSE OF THE FRONT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL STRONG POSITIVE OMEGA
VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FORCINGS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB
WITHIN A WIND FIELD THAT DOES TOUCH ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS JUST
BENEATH THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THUS, WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING FROPA, AND MAY NECESSITATE A
SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING 45 MPH ISN`T
THERE YET DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD. NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD ALSO ALSO BE NOTED THAT STRONG CONVERGENT
FORCING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH WITHIN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS. THE ENTIRE THREAT PERIOD FOR ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE NO
LONGER THAN ABOUT 90 MINUTES.

COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 30
KTS TO THE SURFACE THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY. CAA WILL QUICKLY
EASE, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BY AFTERNOON, FORCING WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE
THERMAL MIXING PROCESS AND MIXING EFFICIENCY WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
DECREASE. THUS, A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND GUSTS IS EXPETED
THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON. ALSO, A MODEST LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE WILL
ENHANCE EXISTING CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ENGULF THE ENTIRE
CWA AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERS RAIN SHOWERS, PERHAPS
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES COULD SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO THE SURFACE WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS NORTH OF PONTIAC, BUT THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION.

NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE BY THIS TIME, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. STRATUS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. MODEST RECOVERY IN THE THERMAL FIELD BY THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
NEAR 50 UNDER DECREASING CLOUDS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SATURDAY. INTERMODEL CONTINUITY HAS INCREASED WITH THIS
FEATURE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS FOR THE TRI-CITIES SATURDAY /CHANCE
ELSEWHERE/ AND LIKELY AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. NO REAL COLD AIR OF
NOTE WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...AND UPPER HEIGHT RISES
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS KEEPING THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH WEST CONUS/RIDGE EAST
CONUS PATTERN...KEEPING US VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.

.MARINE...

PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST GALES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
HOURS OF DOWNTIME IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE WATERS. GUSTS
TO STRONG GALES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. GALES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 10
FEET OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 15 FEET. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MINIMIZE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEARSHORE ZONES.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 139 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AS A DEEP SURFACE
LOW LIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
OCCURRING AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT MAINLY IFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE TO ABOVE 1000FT. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BRIEF POP TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 07Z. ELEVATED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

FOR DTW... MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL BETTER MIXING LIFTS CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO
REMAIN BELOW 3000FT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND AGAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS OVERNIGHT
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD AROUND 250 DEGREES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462-463.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.

GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ422.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443-464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ444.

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1235 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015