Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/26/15

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

1030 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WILL WILL KEEP WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW AND HOT CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ADJUST WIND
WORDING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJUST SKY/FOG WORDING ON THE CENTRAL
COAST AND TO MAKE MINOR FORMATTING CORRECTIONS. LATEST HRRR
INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL AND INDICATED NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING
THIS HOUR AND THEN PREVAILING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DIMINISHING AND RETREATING INLAND. HRRR INITIALIZED HIGH AND LOW
CLOUD FIELD REASONABLY WELL...ISOLATED LOW CLOUD ON THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WHILE THE HIGH
OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD ADVANCES SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHILE THICKENING
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING IS A EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT ALL THE RECORDS ARE IN THE 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
SO WHILE IT WILL HOT IT WILL NOT BE RECORD HEAT.

A LITTLE TROF RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL TURN
PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD WITH
THE TROF. LOW LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY HIGH AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE COOLING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE BEACHES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. TEMPS MIGHT END UP COOLER IF THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER THEN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

FAST MOVING FLOW SETS UP AND SUNDAY`S TROF IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A
RIDGE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. GRAD WILL TREND OFFSHORE AND MAX
TEMPS WILL BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE RIDGE CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AND THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH PERSISTENT WARMING ALOFT TO CREATE A DECENT MARINE
INVERSION. SFC FLOW WILL BE NEAR NEUTRAL AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS ESP OVER THE L.A. COAST.

A TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING MORE
STRATUS CLOUDS TO VENTURA AND L.A. COUNTY. THE TROF WILL LIKELY STIR
THINGS UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING N OF PT
CONCEPTION. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY
UP NORTH. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AREAS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MAY STAY WARM.

THE MDLS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER WITH EACH RUN AND NOW
ONLY THE EC BRINGS ANY RAIN TO THE AREA AND THEN ONLY TO AREAS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMOVED ALL POPS SAVE
FOR SLGT CHC N PT CONCEPTION FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF. COOL AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND A STRONG NW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL.

WINDS WILL BE THE BIG DEAL LATE THU AND FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN CA AND
THEN SETTLE INTO NV. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL START THURSDAY AND THEN
TURN TO THE NE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
RAISING HGTS AND HENCE TEMPS BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL REINFORCE
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND SET UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST
WIND EVENT OF THE FALL SO FAR.

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.

AT 1700Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX.

THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A 50% CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH OF POINT SAL.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

PUBLIC...30/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

930 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE FOLLOWING IS A EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT ALL THE RECORDS ARE IN THE 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
SO WHILE IT WILL HOT IT WILL NOT BE RECORD HEAT.

FAST MOVING FLOW SETS UP AND SUNDAY`S TROF IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A
RIDGE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. GRAD WILL TREND OFFSHORE AND MAX
TEMPS WILL BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF. COOL AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND A STRONG NW FLOW PATTERN SETS UP. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...24/1110Z...

AT 1015Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS SURFACE BASED. THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING...AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME VLIFR/LIFR CONDS HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

PUBLIC...30/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

516 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER
AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT
THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION
AND COVERAGE IS LOW.

WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE
BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS
EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS

.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURICANE PATRICIA
INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME MINRO TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF THE RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A PERIOD
WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS AS
FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODERATE
TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE PARENT SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

KREIN

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT MID-LATE EVENING

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
VISIBLE IMAGERY BEHIND THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CREATED SOME THIN
POCKETS OF CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS ALLOWED A FEW SCT DECK CLOUDS TO
OCCUR...HOWEVER JUST WEST OF THIS FEATURE CLOUDS THICKEN WITH
BASES DROPPING BACK TO MVFR CONDS AND A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY ARRIVING A FEW AREAS OF
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT SHOULD BE DONE BY 20Z AS DRIER AIR STEADILY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MIXING AND COLD AIR ARRIVING WILL HELP
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEARING 30KT AT TIMES BETWEEN 18-22Z THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 00Z TO ARND 20KT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
GUSTS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST
TOWARDS NORTHERN IL LATER TONIGHT.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO IMPROVE BASES TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR BUT THEN
EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR CONDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SUN WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHEAST SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-7KT.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH-ISH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS CLEARING
OUT
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING ELEMENTS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH IFR POSSIBLE BY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MTF

.MARINE...
237 PM CDT

THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT
PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF
PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO
LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SUNDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

238 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

KREIN

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 18-21Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.

* A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z THEN DRY AIR
MOVES IN.

* WEST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 28-30KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 2Z. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
DURATION OF GUSTS AND INTENSITY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MTF

.MARINE...
237 PM CDT

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SUNDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

228 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.LONG TERM...
314 AM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN BACK TO WET WEATHER WITH
RAIN CHANCES APPEARING LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DURING THIS TIME...GUIDANCE STILL NARROWING IN ON HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CONUS...AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE WETTER PERIOD REGION WIDE.
DID INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME BUT CAPPED THEM AT LIKELY
POPS...OWING TO SOME SYSTEM EVOLUTION VARIABILITY. HAVE ALSO KEPT
OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS IS WORTH MONITORING WITH
LATER FORECASTS.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 18-21Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.

* A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z THEN DRY AIR
MOVES IN.

* WEST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 28-30KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 2Z. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
DURATION OF GUSTS AND INTENSITY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MTF

.MARINE...
220 AM CDT

AN ACTIVE DAY TODAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN DURING MIDDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES BY DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE BY
MIDDAY AS THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE.
AS THAT OCCURS...WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH 30 KT. THE NORTHERN HALF
TO THIRD OF THE LAKE IS IN A FAVORED QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO GET
A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST GALES...THOUGH THIS COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
IN DURATION /2-4 HOURS/. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR A
WINDOW DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS EVE AROUND THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD EASE AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNFOLD AS
THEY TURN MORE TOWARD DUE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE
SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS TO OCCUR ALTHOUGH
THE DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE WILL INEVITABLY SHIFT SOME. DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT LOW TRACK...A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
MORE FAVORED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD BE IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME AT THIS VANTAGE POINT.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY
IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY
IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

320 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT AS BEST FORCING APPEARS TO
BE DISPLACED FROM THE AREA AS NOTED IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...AND
HRRR PRECIP COVERAGE IS NOT QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS WOULD BE DESIRED
FOR HIGHER POPS LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME EXPANSION
OF SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...BUT FELT A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN POPS WAS WARRANTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER MADE PER LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. VERY LITTLE OF CURRENT RETURNS APPEAR TO
BE MAKING THE GROUND WITH DOUBLE DIGIT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THE
RULE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL
DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AT BEST.

ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE
FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO
THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT
OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB
JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF
FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION.

THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA.

WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA.
THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY.
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY.

MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR
MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE REMANTS OF PATRICIA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS WILL ALSO
BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN INCREASING BREEZY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL THEN BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A
STRONG NORTHERN SYSTEM. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...PERHAPS A MERGER OF THE REMNANTS AND ANOTHER WAVE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS WAS STILL WITHIN
POSSIBILITY BEING WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THAT SAID...STILL
PREFER THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SO...WENT WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST AND CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AND CAT TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PER THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION. THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN A BIT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER WITH BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLIER AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE POTENT PLAINS SYSTEM. WITH ALL
MODELS SUGGESTING STRONG FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE AND HINTING AT SOME
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER 2
INCHES LOOK VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THE MERGING
SYSTEMS.

WITH RETURN FLOW...BUT THICK CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEN...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY.
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HIGHS OVER 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S
LOOK GOOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

VFR TO START...THEN MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING
AND BACK TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...CEILINGS
HAVE ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY SO FAR AND BY MAY NOT REACH MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BY MID
MORNING LASTING TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST UP TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST UP TO
15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AFTER COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS BY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 WAVE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA. THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE 00Z
SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA
AFTER THIS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TO THE WEST...A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NE. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FIRING THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS WITH THE
RAIN FALLING AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE OF THIS AFD.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH THIS MAY MOVE
THE WARM FRONT NORTH SLIGHTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DECREASING. THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS
OUT TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OUR
CWA. HIRES CAMS...INCLUDING CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT
THIS NOTION AS WELL. STILL DECIDED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WARM FRONT
MOVEMENT AND STORMS OUT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A STRONG
STORM IF THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT PULL NORTH AND WE HAVE BACKED SFC
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM WILL ACTUALLY HOLD
STEADY OR BE WARMING AS THE WARM SECTOR ENTRENCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IF THE WARM
LIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOOKS TO BE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR. MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL STILL BE CLOUDY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
A GORGEOUS FALL SATURDAY. THE NAM DOES HAVE WRAPAROUND PRECIP SAT
AM....I DID NOT BUY THIS AS THE NAM CURRENTLY DOES NOT HANDLE THE
CURRENT PRECIP WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

COOLER WITH MOSTLY NEAR SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN EVENT IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXACT TIMING. THE PHASING OF
MOISTURE...SOME FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS HEAVIER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURE MANY DAYS WITH FAIR SKIES
MINS MAY NEED LOWERING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BASED ON PERSISTENCE
THE PAST FEW TO SEVERAL WEEKS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR WITH MOISTURE A
BIT OVERDONE WITH CURRENT SYSTEM. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND CLOSEST
SOLUTIONS UPSTREAM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND OF HI-RES ECMWF/UKMET MIX
WITH GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TYPICAL COOL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65 AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS SEEING MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 4S0 AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POOR CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS AND
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE SUGGESTED AS PHASING OF ENERGY WITH
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER KNOWN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCAL
OFFICE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WHAT HI-RES ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORTS WITH
IS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF .25 TO 75 INCHES WITH 1 PLUS INCHES VERY
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF OF
MEXICO DERIVED FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" STREAMING AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVER UPPER MIDWEST. HI/LO
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

FRIDAY...MUCH COLDER AND BREEZY TO WINDY ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS PROBABLY BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AT
LEAST 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO HIGH. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AM AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 07Z-10Z/SAT. IFR/LIFR
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z-15Z/SAT FOR CIGS NEAR 1000 FT AGL AT
KCID/KDBQ. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF TS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY NEAR THE
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD...WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR FROM THE MID MORNING
TO MID AFTN AS WNW WINDS INCREASE AND GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1246 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING
DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS IN PLACE3 OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE
LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS AND
SKY COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING. BL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE
EAST...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT LOWER TD VALUES
IN THE 30S. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH A
FREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. I
DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FURTHER EAST BASED ON
CURRENT TD/WIND FORECAST. THESE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT QUITE AS
CERTAIN AS WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS
TODAY...THOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. I WOULD EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015

COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 30S. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE WILL BE THURSDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STILL MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT THEY ARE QUITE WET.
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE ONGOING LLWS NOTED ON KGLD VAD WIND
PROFILER. WINDS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THINK THREAT WILL BE OVER BY 10Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1052 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF
INCREASING THEN DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES ON THE WEST COAST AROUND 00Z MONDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY MORNING A THICK
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST TOWARD SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/GEM A BIT FASTER (COMPARED TO
ECMWF) BRINGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL IMPACT HOW FAST CLEARING DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS/GEM MODELS. FOR
TUESDAY UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS ITS PARENT CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT BEFORE THAT POSSIBLY DEAL WITH SOME CLOUDINESS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S WEST TO AROUND 40 FAR EAST.

WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY EAST IN THE MORNING WITH A RAPID CLEARING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA SO HAVE REMOVED PREVIOUS PRECIP MENTION.
NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY QUICKLY BECOMING
LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND FREEZE HILITES ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...GFS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLES BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...QUITE DIFFERENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODELS WHICH HAD AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THE ECMWF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE
WITH THAT THOUGHT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CURRENTLY
THINKING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE THINGS DRY
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROCEDURE LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
ADVERTISES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC. ECWMF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTRY...FAR DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WILL COME THE NEED TO
ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN
THE LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE UPPER AND SFC PATTERNS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

209 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

CIRRUS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN KY...WHILE SOME MID CLOUDS
HAVE SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS ABOUT INTERSTATE 75. RADAR RETURNS ARE
OVER CENTRAL KY...BUT SO FAR KY MESONET AND REGIONAL AWOS AND ASOS
DO NOT INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CURRENTLY MOISTENING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
TROUGH. RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP AS
WELL AS THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z NAM INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWERS WITH
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND SHOULD THREATEN WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY AROUND DAWN AND THEN LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE WEST HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT. RIDGETOPS AND LOCATIONS
WITH MORE OPEN TERRAIN ARE IN THE LOW 60S. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE DECOUPLED VALLEYS SHOULD NOT
COOL MUCH FURTHER. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES THERE COULD RISE A FEW
DEGREES BY DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THE FORECAST OVERALL IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. INGESTED THE LATEST
OBS DATA INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH SOME NEW
TRENDS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK REGARDING HOURLY
AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND THE EXPECTED
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAWN ON SATURDAY. ALSO REMOVED
OUTDATED EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT. THE
NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING SPILLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
IS STRETCHED EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HAVING GOTTEN PULLED IN BY
A BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. EASTERN
KENTUCKY IS ENJOYING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

THIS WILL ALL COME TO AN END HOWEVER...AS THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO QUEBEC
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR WESTERN FRINGES BY DAWN OR JUST
BEFORE...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. POPS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY EDGES
CLOSER. HAVE ALSO LEFT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WEAK. THE BEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH.

A MILDER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS LOWS ONLY DROP OFF INTO
THE 50S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THINNEST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH WARMER SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AS THE COLDER AIR LOOKS SHALLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE
BLUEGRASS...TO NEAR 60 BORDERING VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LIFTS
NEWD. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL GET A REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER DURING THAT TIME CLOSEST TO THE
FRONT.

THE BIGGER STORY IN THE EXTENDED BELONGS TO THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE PATRICIA CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN COASTLINE OF
MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO TX AND
GET INGESTED INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ON TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO INGEST THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/REMNANTS OF
PATRICIA WHICH DEEPENS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY. THERE IS STILL MODEL DISCONTINUITY WITH HOW THESE
TRANSITIONS OCCUR...WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN OUTLIER. SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON THE 12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING OF THE POPS/QPF.
ADDITIONALLY...THE 850 WINDS ARE SURGING AT 40-60 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AND SOME OF THIS COULD MIX DOWN WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN. SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE HWO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL.

RAIN WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIPPING BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
18Z. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY REACH
SYM...SME AND LOZ BEFORE 12Z. MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...WHEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
FURTHER SATURATES IN THE LOWER LEVELS BETWEEN 18Z AND 6Z...MVFR
VIS AND OR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM...SME AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS LOZ AND JKL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND 10KT OR LESS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1210 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A SUPER WET ARKLATEX ALL WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
OK/TX PNHDL MEETS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE PATRICIA NOW
INLAND OVER SW MEXICO. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT E/NE WITH DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...20-50KTS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH LARGE AREA OF
SHRA MAYBE ISOLD TSTM...FOR KTYR...TO KTXK. THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL PRESS IN EARLY SUNDAY WITH NE 10-15KTS AND MORE HEAVY RAIN
OVERRUNNING TERMINALS INTO MONDAY WITH SW FLOW. /24/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY. SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5.50 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED THIS EVENING
BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING. FOR THE MOST
PART...RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING TO THE
USUAL LOW-LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. NEXT LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST NOW MOVE EAST OF I-35 AND WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. BASED ON MOVEMENT
TRENDS IN RADAR LOOPS...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE NEXT
ROUND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ROUND AND
SHOULD TRACK CLOSER TO I-30. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THESE THESE TRENDS
AND GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL.

MADE ONLY SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CURRENT SITUATION. SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO MIN TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A VERY LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MEMPHIS. RAINFALL
RATES WITHIN THIS LINE HAVE BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME SPOTS
IN TEXAS RECEIVING 2 INCHES AN HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT
WEST IS HELPING TO ORIENT THIS LINE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH IS SETTING UP A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE I-30 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WILL PUT UP A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AREA BECAUSE THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
TODAY...AND WILL RECEIVE THE SAME OR MORE WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WEST GULF
COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION IT INTO SOUTH LOUISIANA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...WHICH
WILL BE OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS...TOLEDO BEND...AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTER THE SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WET WEATHER OUT
LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. /35/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 80 65 70 / 60 70 100 70
MLU 67 82 64 71 / 30 50 100 90
DEQ 65 75 57 70 / 100 100 80 60
TXK 67 76 61 67 / 100 90 80 60
ELD 65 78 61 68 / 70 70 100 80
TYR 68 78 63 72 / 90 100 80 60
GGG 67 79 63 72 / 80 90 90 70
LFK 68 79 63 72 / 30 60 100 80

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124-125-136.

24/09/35

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

237 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO A COOLER SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER RAIN MAKER ARRIVES FROM THE
GULF COAST WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS HIGHER PWAT VALUES
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE PWATS
PUSHING NEARLY 1.5"...LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECLUDE TAPPING INTO THE RICH MOISTURE. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS REMAIN STATUS QUO WITH VALUES UNDER A HALF AN INCH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SHOW A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BEST KINEMATICS STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHICH IS
SUPPORTED IN THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OFF THE RAP AND HRRR...SO
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR AREAS OUTSIDE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA /EXCLUDING THE PANHANDLE/ AND WESTERN MARYLAND. AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO QUICKLY END
UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
ALLOWS THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT WITH CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST COMMENCING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OVER EASTERN OHIO.
SEVERAL NCEP MODELS KEEP AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL RH AROUND H8 OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENOUGH RIDGING SCOURS OUT THE CLOUDS. CARRIED SUB 15 POPS AT
12Z SUNDAY AS ALL MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. H8 TEMPS FALL 8C FROM TODAY...SO DESPITE SUNSHINE CAA
WILL YIELD ONLY A 7-10F DIURNAL. TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF ECMWF BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS AND THE ONGOING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SPED UP TIMING OF CLOUDS EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE DOWN TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE. LOWER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN SHOULD QUELL ANY CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...OPTED TO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST MET/MAV
GUIDANCE.

CUT-OFF GULF LOW WILL BECOME DISLODGED MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN
SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STILL SOME QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE DEEP
NORTHERN TROF. GENERALLY KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT REPLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED DRY AIR COULD PUSH
BACK THE ONSET A LITTLE LONGER.
TAX

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PICK UP THE REMAINS OF
PATRICIA AND PRODUCE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT HEADS FOR THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN. ANY REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS COULD MIX IN WITH SOME SNOW AS THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS
ACTIVATE UNDER THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AND TIMING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE STAY
AT OR ABOVE MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TIME WINDOW WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE 1Z-6Z. AFTERWARD LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 9Z. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
SAVE FOR MGW WHERE IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR LIKELY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS REACHED ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NW LWR MICHIGAN. MAIN COLD FRONT IS HOT ON
ITS HEELS... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GREEN BAY INTO S CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED NE OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IS MOVING THRU N CENTRAL
AND NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. RAP13
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DEVELOPING RIGHT
ALONG THIS LINE BEFORE IT CLEARS NE LWR MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. WILL
CERTAINLY KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR
MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF SVR STORMS. THEREAFTER...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN.

CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO NRN MICHIGAN TO ACTIVATE THE
LAKES. DELTA T`S INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL LIMIT LAKE-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FOR
LOCATIONS TARGETED BY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL ADD THIS TO THE
FORECAST THRU AROUND 09Z. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY OVERCOMING ANY LAKE
PRECIP BY THIS TIME...AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER 09Z.
BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL NOT BE
WITHOUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE...JUXTAPOSED WITH RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE OF
PWAT VALUES OF ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH...WILL PRODUCE CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF M-
72 AS OF RIGHT NOW. EXPECT DECREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY...BUT THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKING IT/S WAY
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WILL BEGIN VEERING TO EASTERLY TUESDAY
AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

AT UPPER LVLS...500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK...WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S SATURDAY...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL LIFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WED BEFORE EXITING INTO
QUEBEC THURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE RAIN ACRS NRN MI
WEDNESDAY...MIXING WITH SNOW THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE
STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THRU ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY TO MVFR...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS REMAINING OVER ALL OF NRN
LWR MICHIGAN THRU TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON
SUNDAY...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL FURTHER
STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS THEY SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

GALE FORCE WINDS AND RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MICHIGAN.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344-345.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ346.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

146 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WITH STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING AIRMASS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. OVERALL
ITS NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INGREDIENTS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UP AROUND 50 KNOTS. 0 TO 1
KM HELICITY IS SHOWN TO BE UP AROUND 150 M2/S2 ESPECIALLY THE
LANSING TO JACKSON REGION 18Z TO 00Z. LCLS WILL BE LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER
INSTABILITY COULD BE LIMITING FACTOR. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
THE SPC HRRR IS DEVELOPING OVER 500 J/KG EAST OF A MOUNT PLEASANT
TO SOUTH HAVEN LINE 18Z TO 21Z...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE THIS MUCH
CAPE. UPDRAFT HELICITY FROM THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS SOME ROTATING
STORMS POSSIBLE. THE SITUATION BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR A TORNADO COULD DEVELOP. DAY1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC
NOW AT MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT...BUT THE EVENING COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING. SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY...BUT MID LEVEL FGEN AND MOISTURE SETS UP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. I WILL FEATURE A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR MY NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM WITH RIDGING IN
PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORCED EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM LOW. THIS OPENS UP A GULF
CONNECTION AND ALLOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE LOW AS IT
TRAVERSES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN ADDITION...00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE GULF LOW WILL
INTERACT WILL THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
55KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS ABOVE 1
INCH TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL JUST MENTION RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS
IN. 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -4C BY 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

CONDITIONS WILL VARY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET THOUGH THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS SHOULD COME UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GO NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

CLOSE CALL FOR GALES OFF OF LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS LATER
TODAY. IF IT HAPPENS IT SHOULD BE BRIEF LASTING AN HOUR TO TWO. I
WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING. I DID EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING AND IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE WAVES
TO SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE LONG
TERM BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE A CALL EITHER WAY.

THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY RECEIVED LIGHT RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND
INTO THIS MORNING RANGING ONE-TENTH TO FOUR-TENTHS OF AN INCH.
THERE WERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT WERE HARDER TO COME BY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT OVERALL...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIKELIHOOD IS THAT SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR LANSING AND JACKSON...MAY
GET IN ON A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SPAN SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. A BOUNDARY
MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BE AN AREA THAT RECEIVES SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THAT PERIOD...BUT AGAIN...ITS PLACEMENT WILL BE THE
DIFFERENCE MAKER IN HOW MUCH WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE. IT IS YET TBD
AND WILL BE MONITORED.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

116 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING WINDY
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...

DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT RESULTS IN LOW PRESSURE OF 1005MB OVER WCNTRL
WI DEEPENING TO AT LEAST 1000MB BY TIME IT REACHES EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTN AND EAST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
LULL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ATTM OVER MOST CWA. ISOLD SHRA ARE AROUND
AND WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS BENEATH DRY SLOT ALOFT...ARE ALSO SEEING
DRIZZLE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. CLOUD TOPS UPSTREAM
ALREADY COOLING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO EXISTING
TROUGH. HAVE SEEN NEW BATCH OF SHRA EXPAND IN LAST FEW HOURS OVER
ECNTRL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI TIED TO THE DEEPENING
TROUGH...INCREASING H925-H85 FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT SHRA MOVING INTO FAR WEST CWA TO INCREASE OVER SW CWA BTWN
09Z-12Z AS FORCING ONLY INCREASES. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND EAST OF MAIN FGEN AREA. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THINKING
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL CWA. GIVEN THE
SYNCING UP OF THE FGEN...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGER
SCALE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT...THINK
AT LEAST ISOLD 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE ON TRACK FOR PARTS
OF THE CNTRL CWA. STEADY RAIN SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SCT-NMRS SHOWERS
THIS AFTN WITH DEEPER H7 MOISTURE STILL WRAPPING ACROSS EAST HALF OF
CWA AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC
LOW. EVENTUALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING WORKING IN ALOFT...FIRST
OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN THEN SPREADING TO EASTERN CWA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. CONTINUED IDEA OF HIGHEST POPS 80-100 PCT THIS
MORNING...TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN
FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA.

ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES MAINLY EAST OF CWA THIS AFTN...NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER EAST HALF OF LK
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN. GFS A TOUCH STRONGER WITH SFC LOW
BY 18Z-21Z TODAY SHOWING 997MB DOWN TO 995MB COMPARED TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKER NAM/REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF. IF GFS WORKS OUT...COULD BE
PUSHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTN EAST OF
KEWEENAW TO NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. SINCE LATEST RAP AND HRRR ARE MORE
IN LINE WITH MAJORITY OF MODELS...WILL CONTINUE WITH SOLUTION NEAR
CONTINUITY AND HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVY HEADLINES. MENTION IN HWO
STILL APPROPRIATE THOUGH. H85 TEMPS START OUT THIS MORNING AS WARM
AS +10C OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT DROP TO 0C OR EVEN -1C BY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES BY. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB VERY LITTLE
TODAY /MID-UPR 40S WEST AND LOW-MID 50S EAST/ WITH ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW MOST OF THE DAY EITHER
FM THE SOUTH OR LATER ON FM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.

INTO TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT CHANCES ARE MARGINAL AS EVEN THOUGH
SOUNDINGS SHOW H925/H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ZERO TO -2C/-2C TO -4C.
WATER TEMPS AROUND +9C WOULD ONLY GIVE DELTA T/S RIGHT AT TYPICAL
THRESHOLD. INVERSIONS FALL STEADILY WITH AREAS AT END OF FETCH OVER
SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR SEEING HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3KFT AFTER 06Z.
EXPECT MOST SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATE TONIGHT THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHORTWAVE AND SOME H8-H7 MOISTURE CROSSING
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING SLIDES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TONIGHT. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
FORCING ALONG WITH CONTINUATION OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL AS LOW AS LOWER 30S
INLAND WEST...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS/TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A
PROMINENT MIDWEEK TROUGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW.

SUN-MON...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF...BRINGING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AND AREAS OF MID LEVEL FGEN THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. THE FGEN
AND ASSOCIATED 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT A BAND OF RAIN
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN FROM SUN NIGHT INTO MAINLY MON MORNING. SINCE THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE BAND...POPS WERE
INCREASED BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY FOR TUE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.

TUE NIGHT-THU...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY REGARDING THE INTERACTION OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
SFC LOW OVER THE WRN LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM WHICH BRING A STRONGER NRN STREAM
SHRTWV FROM MANITOBA TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. A MODEL CONSENSUS FCST
APPROACH CONTINUED TO FAVOR A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
FOLLOWED BY COOLING AND A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING AS PCPN DIMINISHES LATE THU. THE DEGREE OF PHASING
AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AND WILL AFFECT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE.

FRI...BOTH AND GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING
MOVING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
PROMINENT SHRTWV DIVING INTO THE SW CONUS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -7C...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT PCPN
EARLY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AND WILL GO VFR
FIRST AT KIWD BY EVENING AND THEN WILL STAY THERE THROUGH SUN
MORNING. AT KCMX AND KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAINS LONGER WITH
LOW VFR COMING IN LATER TONIGHT AND THEN STAYING NEAR THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORY WITH LOW CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH 30 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THIS AFTN ONCE A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND TO THE EAST OF LK
SUPERIOR. WINDS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING WILL REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY 25 KTS OR LESS
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEY MAY INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW MAY REACH
GALE FORCE INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE TRACK AND
INTENISTY OF THE MID WEEK LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1147 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. OVERALL
ITS NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INGREDIENTS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPANDING THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND...AND
AN ISOLATED STORM THIS MORNING. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS LATE THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS AT
ALL SITES SHOULD TOP 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY COULD BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRIGGER STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN. MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE LONG
TERM BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE A CALL EITHER WAY.

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SPAN SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. A BOUNDARY
MAY SET UP SOMEHWERE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BE AN AREA THAT RECEIVES SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THAT PERIOD...BUT AGAIN...ITS PLACEMENT WILL BE THE
DIFFERENCE MAKER IN HOW MUCH WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE. IT IS YET TBD
AND WILL BE MONITORED.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

757 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING WINDY
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY FOR TUE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES HAVE DROPPED TO IFR/LIFR IN MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKE. LOWEST CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR WILL BE AT SAW THIS MORNING.
AFTER THE LOW PRES PASSES THIS MORNING...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE NW.
EVEN AFTER THE WIND SHIFT...IFR CONDITIONS WL LINGER UNDER SOME
IMPRESSIVE FORCING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAUSES
WIDESPREAD SHRA. THE NW WINDS WL BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THE
MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION...WITH GUSTS AOA 30 KTS UNDER THE
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING LOW PRES AND INCOMING HI
PRES IN THE EARLY AFTN. SINCE THE NW FLOW WL EVENTUALLY TAP DRIER
AIR...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN VFR LATER
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES
RDG. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

750 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. OVERALL
ITS NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INGREDIENTS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN
THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF
THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE
COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A
RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK
REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

509 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING WINDY
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY FOR TUE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

A SSE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES APRCHG FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS WL
DRAW MOISTER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING UNDER DRY SLOTTING ALF...EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES TO FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE. THE LOWEST VSBYS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT SAW...WHERE THE LLVL SSE FLOW WL PRESENT AN
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND THE SHEAR UNDER A LLJ WL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME LLWS UNTIL A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVHD ABOUT 09Z.
AFTER THE LO PRES PASSES ON SAT MRNG...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE NW.
DESPITE THIS WSHFT...IFR CONDITIONS WL LINGER UNDER SOME IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMIC FORCING THAT WL CAUSE WDSPRD SHRA. THE NW WINDS WL BECOME
PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION...WITH GUSTS
AOA 30 KTS UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING LO
PRES AND INCOMING HI PRES IN THE EARLY AFTN. SINCE THE NW FLOW WL
EVENTUALLY TAP DRIER AIR...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE EVNG
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES RDG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

444 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING WINDY
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOWS/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEXT
THU WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN BEHIND A MORE PROMINENT MIDWEEK
TROUGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW.

SAT NIGHT...850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3C WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN ESPECIALLY WITH A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND LOWERING BLO 3K FT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PCPN AFTER THE SYNOPTIC RAIN DEPARTS
LATE SAT.

SUN-MON...MORE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND ASSOC SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THAN
EITHER THE NAM...GFS OR GEM. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
PWATS OF ONLY AROUND .6 INCHES...ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS WARRANTED.
MODEL CONSENSUS THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WOULD INITIALLY
BE RAIN SUN EVENING BUT THEN POSSIBLY MIX WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE
WEST HALF AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY FOR TUE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.

TUE NIGHT-THU...OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING
THE INTERACTION OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND THE EVOLUTION
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW AS MODEL CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY HAVE BEEN VERY POOR LAST FEW RUNS. A MODEL CONSENSUS
FCST APPROACH FAVORS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
FOLLOWED BY COOLING AND A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PCPN DIMINISHES LATE THU. AGAIN DEGREE OF
PHASING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND WILL AFFECT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PTYPE.

FRI...BOTH AND GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT RIDGING AND ASSOC DRYING MOVING
BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ESPECIALLY LATER IN AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM TO THE EAST. INITIALLY COULD
BE SOME LINGERING -SHRA/-SHSN OVER ERN COUNTIES FRI MORNING AS BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR (8H TEMPS OF -8
TO -10C) ADVECTING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

323 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. OVERALL
ITS NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INGREDIENTS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

CEILINGS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY. MKG THE ONLY SITE AT MVFR AS OF 05Z.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND THEN LIKELY IFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
CIGS AT LAN AND JXN LIKELY WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 1 KFT UNTIL 13Z
OR SO.

EXPECTING JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND FIRST
BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH NOW. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
16-17Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TOWARD 18Z...SO THUNDER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION. BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. LAN AND JXN HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING
ISOLATED TSRA AFTER 18Z.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

155 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF OUR
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT IS LOW DUE MAINLY
TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ATTM OFF TO OUR
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHC FOR AN ISOLATED STORM MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA JUST
PRIOR TO FROPA... BUT GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING THE RELATIVELY BETTER
CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WILL BE EAST/SE OF OUR FCST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR. FAIR WX WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW
WHICH WOULD GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND MAYBE MORE OF
RAIN. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY THE RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS.

THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE. THE FIRST IS ON MONDAY
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX TO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE SECOND CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL BEFORE THE
SHOWERS END.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO 30 KTS
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

322 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

CLOUDS WERE HANGING ON IN NW WI AT 20Z...BUT SOME CLEARING WAS
NOTED AS A BRIEF PUSH OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
A FEW CU HAD FORMED OVER NE MN. UPSTREAM IN CANADA...CLOUDS WERE
SURGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AS
WELL. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL
BRING SOME QPF INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ADDED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY
CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SMALL POPS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT...WHICH ALL MODELS POINT TO. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF THE ONSET OF
PCPN. THE NAM12/GEM/ARW EAST/NMM EAST BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. THE GFS/ECMWF/ARW
WEST/NMM WEST/SREF POINT TOWARD NO PCPN SUNDAY MORNING. LEANED ON
THE BLENDED APPROACH WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER OPTION AND HAVE NO
WEATHER MENTION SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE TO PLACEMENT OF QPF/POPS. BAND OF FGEN IN THE H925 LAYER
IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY JUST ABOUT EACH MODEL ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. NAM/GEM ARE ALONG HIGHWAY 2...OTHER MODELS WELL
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN THE MORNING. THE NMM/ARW BEGIN WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOCATION...BUT THEN MOVE THE SHOWERS NORTH WITH TIME
CATCHING UP WITH THE GEM/NAM PLACEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. BLENDED THE
POPS AS A RESULT WHICH LED TO A LOWER POP IN THE MORNING AND A BIT
HIGHER POP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON PCPN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN A BAND OF PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATING THE BAND WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE NAM/WRFNMM/WRFARW ARE MORE INDICATING THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA...FROM WEST TO EAST...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION. LEANED ON THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND
INCREASED PCPN CHANCES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL DIG OUT OF CANADA AND PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE GENERAL
LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE...COMBINED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PCPN TO FORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE PCPN SHOULD MOSTLY BE
RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH ONTARIO. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ORIENTATED FROM NW
TO SE...WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...LEADING TO A BIT WARMER
WEATHER. A WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PCPN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BEGINNING ACROSS THE SW FORECAST
AREA. THE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN FOR SOME OF THE COLDER AREAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A PERIOD OF WET AND GLOOMY WEATHER LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGGING
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
DEEPENING TO FORM A STACKED LOW NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIOD OF
WET...GLOOMY...AND BREEZY WEATHER. IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE PCPN TYPE IN ANY DETAIL...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ACCUMULATION WILL
BE TOUGH BECAUSE OF MELTING...BOTH FROM THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...PROVIDING THE NORTHLAND WITH CLEARER WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THERE HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST ACROSS NE MINNESOTA
TODAY...CLEARING FROM LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. THE
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KHYR WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE AFTERNOON.

THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN VERY LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE KINL AREA COULD BE AFFECTED BY
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION AROUND DAWN
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO REFLECT THE
THREAT IN THE FORECASTS. THE HRRR IS INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPING...AND THE SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF THE
GEMREGIONAL/RAP13/LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NAM MOS ARE NOT...AND THE
MOS IS USUALLY PRETTY GOOD AT GIVING EARLY SIGNS OF FOG.
ALSO...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH WIND SPEED TONIGHT TO PREVENT FOG.
THEREFORE...KEPT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 36 49 35 47 / 10 30 50 20
INL 30 44 25 46 / 30 10 0 0
BRD 34 52 37 51 / 0 30 50 10
HYR 33 53 36 50 / 0 20 60 50
ASX 36 51 34 49 / 0 30 60 40

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE REMOVED. A
CLEARING TREND IS UNDERWAY OVER NE MN AT 16Z AND WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING IN NW WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
WE SLOWED THE CLEARING TODAY...THE RAP IS THE SLOWEST KEEPING
CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WE USED A BLEND AND DID
DECREASE CLOUDS QUICKER THAN THE RAP BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE
NAM/EC WOULD SUGGEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE LOWER FIFTIES FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PARK
FALLS.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WE STILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AS A TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AFFECT THAT AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS WILL BE FROM 30 TO 35.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXIT ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT/TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF FGEN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
THESE FEATURES IN SOME FORM...DIFFERING ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH.
THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY JUST
RAIN...THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE
HAVE A BROAD AREA OF POPS FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID FORTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TO LOW FIFTIES FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PARK FALLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE AT DULUTH FALLS BELOW FREEZING THIS WEEK
AND TOWARDS MID-WEEK A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE SIGHT OF
SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND /BUT NOT TO FEAR...LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED/. WINTER IS ON THE WAY BUT CERTAINLY NOT IN
ANY RUSH IF THE PATTERN THIS WEEK IS ANY INDICATION.

MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WHERE GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED IN ON STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE
COMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND DUE TO
THIS TREND HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERALL. PLACEMENT IS STILL NOT
CERTAIN BUT USED THE 03Z SREF AS A GUIDE FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL SINCE
IT SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS...ITS NMMB MEMBERS WERE PULLING FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE BUT A CHECK OF THE GEFS SPREAD INDICATES
THIS FARTHER NORTH POTENTIAL /EG. IRON RANGE/ IS REASONABLE...BUT
BETTER CHANCES EXISTS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ALSO
BE ONE OF THE FIRST SYSTEMS OF THE SEASON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS LATEST FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD REGION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ANY SNOW STICKING VERY
LONG...BUT IF A STRONG ENOUGH THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALOFT COULD
EASILY SEE RAIN CHANGING ALL OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE A
STRONGER GRADIENT WOULD INDUCE BETTER LARGE-SCALE FORCING. FOR THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE
A STEADY SNOWFALL AT ANY POINT DUE TO SURFACE TEMPS BEING TOO WARM.
ON THE SUBJECT OF SURFACE TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE TO THE MN ARROWHEAD AND
NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE CURRENT
FORECAST MAY INDEED STILL BE TOO COLD.

AFTER THIS INITIAL ACTIVE PATTERN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ROCKIES SLIDES EASTWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN TURNS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST...PROBABLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AND POSSIBLY SOME INCREASED WINDS...THOUGH FROM MID-DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES.

FOR MID-WEEK...GENERALLY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SPAWNS TWO UPPER
LOWS AS IT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RANGE OF SPEED/INTENSITY
COMBINATIONS...FROM THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERLY LOW WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LIMITED TO SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 2 WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER NORTHERN
UPPER LOW WHICH COULD PUT THE NORTHLAND IN THE BULLSEYE FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS
WED INTO WED NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WED NIGHT AS COLD
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERYWHERE AS A RESULT. WHILE GFS DELAYS THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT...ITS ENSEMBLE IS TRENDING COLDER AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
DEPICT COLD 850MB TEMPS NEAR -5C RUSHING IN ON WED NIGHT.

LATE WEEK...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOW TRACKS COLD AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE LOW PASSAGE RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY COLD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
MID 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD FALL AS LOW AS THE LOW 20S PER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD THERE EXISTS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WOULD
PROBABLY RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A MILD WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 37 49 36 / 20 10 40 40
INL 48 29 45 25 / 10 20 10 10
BRD 52 33 53 36 / 10 10 30 20
HYR 51 32 53 37 / 80 10 20 50
ASX 51 34 52 36 / 90 10 30 50

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1116 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES...EXCEPT AT INL WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS WANING TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS GRADUALLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP
TO IFR CEILINGS FOR THE LAST HOUR OR SO BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
CLEAR TO VFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 37 49 36 / 20 10 40 40
INL 48 29 45 25 / 10 20 10 10
BRD 52 33 53 36 / 10 10 30 20
HYR 51 32 53 37 / 80 10 20 50
ASX 51 34 52 36 / 90 10 30 50

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

628 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 37 49 36 / 30 10 40 40
INL 48 29 45 25 / 10 20 10 10
BRD 52 33 53 36 / 10 10 30 20
HYR 51 32 53 37 / 60 10 20 50
ASX 51 34 52 36 / 70 10 30 50

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

343 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR KAUW BY 12Z SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...RAIN...DRIZZLE
AND FOG WILL PERSIST WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
LARGELY IMPROVE TO VFR ON SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 37 49 36 / 50 10 40 40
INL 48 29 45 25 / 10 20 10 10
BRD 52 33 53 36 / 10 10 30 20
HYR 51 32 53 37 / 60 10 20 50
ASX 51 34 52 36 / 70 10 30 50

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

945 AM CDT OCT 24 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION ON THE WEST
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST CONUS...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME DECENT COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THIS EVENING. SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S./17/

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS MAY LAST
UNTIL 11 AM ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY
SCATTERED LOW (< 2500 FT) CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECKS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND LIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MS RIVER WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAIN AND NEGATIVE IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE TOMORROW. /BB/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...446 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

OVERALL MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
SFC LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS IN THE NRN GULF AND TRACKS E. EVENING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDING E OVER GA
WHILE A UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY EJECTS NE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES WHILE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE CUT OFF
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEAVING IT. A SFC LOW IS IN THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES E THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY LOSES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SOMEWHAT WASH OUT.
HOWEVER...THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER ERN TX WILL REALLY
STAY OVER THE AREA DUE TO LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...AS
THAT TROUGH OVER THE NRN CONUS BECOMES MORE CUT OFF FROM FLOW OVER
OUR AREA...THE TROUGH OVER THE SW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E. ALSO TO NOTE
IS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA MADE LANDFALL IN SW MEXICO LAST
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS ENCOUNTERING HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND WILL
WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL ONLY
INCREASE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS.

AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVES INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT A SUB 1005MB SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK TO THE NE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES UPPER
LIFT/DIVERGENCE...EXPECT SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW SLIGHTLY AND AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO
THE E/NE TODAY...WITH BEST POPS CONTINUING TO BUILD TO THE E TODAY
INTO SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG/W OF I-55
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCES LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ON
THE N/NE SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. ALSO OF NOTE IS MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF PRECIP EMANATING FROM THE SE TO NW THROUGH THE GULF BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR S/SW. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES INDICATE
NAFES/GEFS HIGH PROBS OF NEAR 2 INCH PW`S COMING IN THE SW PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF HEAVY
RAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE EURO LOSING SOME OF
THE STACKED LOOK WITH THE SFC/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHILE
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER TO THE TIMING
OF THE OTHER MODELS BUT DID NOT CLEAR OUT QPF AS QUICKLY DUE TO
SLOWER EURO. THIS WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IN THE SW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GEFS M-CLIMATE PERCENTILES INDICATE
99TH PERCENTILE PLUS OF QPF/PW MOVING IN OUR SW BY SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL OF 3-5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR SW AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO EFFICIENT
MOISTURE...SOME IN EXCESS OF 2 INCH PW`S...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING IN. POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH RAISED
ACROSS THE REGION AND ESPECIALLY THE S/SW DUE TO MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. ALSO
TO NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS DUE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SO WILL MONITOR FOR
NOW. KEPT LIMITED IN THE HWO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WHICH WAS SHIFTED INTO THE DELTA
AND SLIGHTLY TO THE E. HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES ENDING A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A DAMPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
A SMALLER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE NW GULF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALSO OF RELEVANCE TO US, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COASTAL LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE, WILL BE NEAR THE TX/LA
BORDER. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED, SUGGESTING A WEAKENING TREND
SHORTLY AFTER THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE MEAN TIME, A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA AS A STEADY FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STILL BE ONGOING INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE AREA, AS THE LOW MAKES RATHER SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. BASED ON THIS, WE WILL EXTEND THE LIMITED FLOODING THREAT
INTO MONDAY WHEN AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD STILL OCCUR
IN THESE AREAS. EVEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA, POPS WERE RAISED
ACROSS THE BOARD AS SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY.

HEADING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN, LEAVING THE SURFACE LOW BEHIND TO WEAKEN AS
WELL. THOUGH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR OUR AREA, WITH
THE LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS LIKELY
BEYOND THE DAYTIME MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, PICKING UP THE SURFACE
LOW AND PULLING IT NORTHWARD/ABSORBING IT INTO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT. THIS IS A FASTER PROGRESSION THAN DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THIS
CHANGE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY, WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS THE WARM
SECTOR NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY THE DEVELOPING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY, THOUGH IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
THAT RAIN WILL HAVE ALREADY ENDED IN SOME AREAS BY DAYBREAK. ANY
LINGERING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE REMOVED ENTIRELY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH SOME NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. /DL/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 65 72 66 / 43 43 78 89
MERIDIAN 82 64 75 65 / 9 22 43 75
VICKSBURG 82 64 71 68 / 59 60 93 96
HATTIESBURG 84 66 77 68 / 14 27 62 96
NATCHEZ 80 65 69 68 / 58 61 95 98
GREENVILLE 80 62 70 63 / 50 59 82 85
GREENWOOD 83 65 70 64 / 34 56 78 84
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DC/DL/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

912 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING E AHEAD OF IT.
COMBINATION OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT
THE MOISTURE PLUME WAS MID TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. RADAR SHOWED
SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER S CENTRAL ID/E OR NEAR AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND WAS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH 06Z. THE
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SLOW MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOWER- LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING KBIL BY 12Z. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWED LESS THAN /0.10/ INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE SLOW MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS...HAVE
CONFINED POPS TO JUST THE HIGH ELEVATIONS THROUGH 06Z. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE POPS...SW OF KMLS...LOOKED REASONABLE AFTER 06Z.
GIVEN THE RAP TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND THE LOW QPF
AMOUNTS...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES...BUT
WILL NOT CHANGE THEM AS LIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY 12Z.

NEW WRF WAS CONSISTENT WITH OLD RUN IN SHOWING TWO PIECES OF
PACIFIC ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION MON THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
GOOD FORCING OVER THE E BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TO THIS
AREA ON MON. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUE. COLDER AIR
WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO AREAS E AND S OF KBIL. ARTHUR

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

OVERALL FORECAST FOR A TRANSITION TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
ON TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE ACTIVE PATTERN...NO HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ANTICIPATED...BUT A QUICK CHANGE TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OF
INTEREST LIFTING OUT OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT WITH A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY WEST OF
BILLINGS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AS IT
SPREADS INTO EASTERN MT DURING DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED
TRENDS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. WARM NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

FLOW AMPLIFIES BEHIND THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TOWARD NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF
GUSTY/BRISK WINDS...LOWER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP WITH THIS COLDER AIRMASS EARLY TUESDAY ...AND WOULD
EXPECT AREAS ABOVE 6K FEET TO RECEIVE SOME SNOWFALL WITH THE MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 8K FEET. IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT 8K FOOT LEVEL.
MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN A DRY...BUT COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF COLDEST MORNING LOWS OF
THE SEASON...IN THE 20S. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
MOSTLY COOL AND BENIGN WEATHER WITH A WARM UP INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
NEAR BILLINGS AND EVEN COLDER OUT EAST WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
CONTINUING CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BILLINGS AND EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE IN. AS WINDS DIMINISH CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL EASILY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HIT THE LOWER 20S
NEAR BAKER AND MILES CITY. ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE UPPER
TEENS. IN BILLINGS ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S IS
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR WEST
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TYPE DISTURBANCE.

AS THE DISTURBANCE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHUNT THIS DISTURBANCE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR AREA WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN AND WEST OF BILLINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES IN. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN. BY SUNDAY WE COULD SEE A VERY NICE DAY WITH MID 60S IN
THE FORECAST. DOBBS

.AVIATION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND ISOLATED MVFR ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE NEAR KMLS FROM 05-10Z MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/052 040/050 027/049 028/051 035/055 036/061 041/065
45/R 55/W 10/U 01/B 21/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 034/053 032/047 022/051 028/051 030/052 030/057 038/061
52/R 66/W 10/U 12/W 32/W 11/B 11/B
HDN 038/054 035/050 026/050 024/054 030/057 031/063 036/068
35/R 35/W 10/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 039/047 036/048 030/043 023/049 031/053 034/061 040/065
17/R 35/W 20/B 00/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 037/047 035/048 027/045 019/052 028/055 031/062 036/067
28/R 24/W 20/B 00/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 033/045 032/047 027/041 019/045 025/051 030/059 036/063
18/R 54/W 21/N 00/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 038/054 035/048 026/048 025/053 031/054 029/061 034/066
33/R 14/W 30/U 01/B 22/W 11/B 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1249 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

COUPLE THINGS TO FOCUS ON INCLUDING WRAPPING UP THE UPPER LOW MOVING
WHICH GAVE US THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND SOME LOCALLY FROSTY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

CENTER OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR ONEILL NEBRASKA AND
ON ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST. TRAILING SOUTH IS SURFACE TROUGH...ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TROUGH IS A WIND SHIFT AND
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY MAINLY...WITH DRY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOWING ITS PASSING. CLOSER TO THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PERSISTENT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS LINGERED ALL DAY... FAILING TO FILL IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL
MARCHING NICELY TO THE EAST. FRANKLY...THE HRRR AND SPC WRF HAD A
BETTER HANDLE ON ITS MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BEING
VERY SPARSE. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY END ANY PRECIPITATION
RISK.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL AREAS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY DAWN. ATTENTION TURNS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL A DECENT BREEZE
FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE LOWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
BY DAWN SATURDAY...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS.
GOSPER...PHELPS AND KEARNEY NORTHWARD...HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED
FROSTY/FREEZE CONDITIONS AND ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THE REST OF THE FALL. THE COUNTY OF CONCERN IS FURNAS
COUNTY WHERE 33 TO 36 DEGREES IS MOST LIKELY...AND HAVE INCLUDED
THEM IN A FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

AFTER THE COOLER START SATURDAY...AND A BIT OF A MORNING BREEZE IN
EASTERN AREAS... THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
THE REGION AND TURN QUITE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF. EXPECT SOME
CLEAR BLUE SKIES THANKS TO OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENT KEEPING THE
DUST DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES. ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH 850MB WINDS AT 25
KNOTS OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE VERY STRONG WINDS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE OPEN WAVE
THAT REACHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM BACK A
LITTLE BIT. WITH CLOUDS AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT
COOLER. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND
AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF STILL HAS THE MAIN LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PERIOD
HAS MUCH POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE LAST OF THE STRATUS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE AREA AS
THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA. WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. KGRI COULD BE A BIT TRICKY WITH TIMING
OF GOING TO VFR CATEGORY. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT WE
COULD REALIZE VFR CONDITIONS A BIT AFTER 08Z.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ082.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

327 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE COUNTRY COMBINED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARDS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE
MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WILL
STREAM MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK AND
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS DRY AIR
BENEATH 700MB WHICH WILL EVAPORATE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE...HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE FLOW IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH NORTH OF A BUF-ROC-ART LINE
FOR SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FAIRLY
SPARSE SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE WHICH
IS NOW FAIRLY WELL CAPTURED BY HRRR GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/GFS) ALSO HOLD OFF STEADIER RAINS UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THE NOSE OF A 50-55 KT LLJ MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST
REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING. ALSO...MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT BREEZY AND FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY 925MB FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING. GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING JUST OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE AND ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK.

STEADY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT MUCH
MORE THAN SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE ON THE TUG HILL.

MODESTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE LAKES
UNTIL DRIER AIR FINALLY ADVECTS LATER IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY START TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT DIRECT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WE CAN ANTICIPATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND MID 30S IN LOWER TERRAIN CLOSER TO
THE LAKES. EXPECT A FROSTY DAWN WITH VALLEY FOG FORMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
LOWER 50S MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SETTING UP A MILDER RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE PACKAGES START TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WITH GO WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE FASTER GFS AND LAGGING ECMWF...BRINGING RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (SEE LONG TERM BELOW).

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SOAKING RAIN FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MOISTURE AND CIRCULATION REMAINS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN...CONTINUED
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES WILL HELP TO
BLUR THE DETAILS.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A LARGE SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES DIGGING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LAY THE
GROUND WORK FOR A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS
SCENARIO WILL OPEN THE WESTERN GULF AND ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
SURGE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES ARE NOT AS ANOMALOUS AS ONE MIGHT THINK
THOUGH...AS ACTUAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
UNDER 1.5 INCHES.

CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ENCOURAGE THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THIS PLUME WILL BE THEN BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COMPLETION OF THIS PROCESS
WOULD LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A POWERFUL CYCLONE THAT WOULD
PASS FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO JAMES BAY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

AS THE AXIS OF THE TROPICALLY ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL BE
GENERATED BY A STRONGLY COUPLED H25 JET AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS 12 TO 18
PERIOD WHEN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
AVERAGE AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED
SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE COUPLED JET WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PASSING OF A
STRENGTHENING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADD MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN IN PLACE. THE RAIN WILL START TO TAPER
OFF AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO BLUSTERY (IF NOT WINDY) AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STILL DEEPENING SFC LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY AND A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE LOCALIZED FUNNELING
COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS...THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY A TROPOPAUSE FOLD AND 1.5 PVU POTENTIAL VORTICITY INTRUSION
INDICATIVE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP MULTIPLE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN. LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
BANDS OF SHOWERS.

THE LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CORRESPONDING SFC
HIGH AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
NOTABLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT...WILL ALLOW FOR POPS TO FALL OFF TO CHC
BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
HALLOWEEN.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE GENERATED IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WHICH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THIS A STEADIER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD
OF A LLJ. THIS WILL BRING MARGINALLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS...HOWEVER
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE NW FLOW LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BEFORE
THIS...THE LLJ WILL NOT FULLY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN
LLWS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO START OFF MAINLY MVFR FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED
BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND
START TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RAIN. MVFR/IFR.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES
THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY FOR SLZ022.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...RSH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

211 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE COUNTRY COMBINED WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARDS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY
THE MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WILL
STREAM MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK
AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS
DRY AIR BENEATH 700MB WHICH WILL EVAPORATE SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE FLOW IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH NORTH OF
A BUF-ROC LINE FOR SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPARSE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE
WHICH IS NOW FAIRLY WELL CAPTURED BY HRRR GUIDANCE. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/GFS) ALSO HOLD OFF STEADIER RAINS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN THE NOSE OF A 50-55 KT LLJ MOVES IN
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING. ALSO...MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

STEADY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MODESTLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY `WEATHER` DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ESTABLISH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS UNEVENTFUL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THIS PERIOD AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL COME ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A NEWSWORTHY TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS A RESULT...A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BELOW H85 IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL AT LEAST SLOW...IF NOT
SEVERELY LIMIT...THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WE EXPERIENCE. MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S (COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT DIRECT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WE CAN ANTICIPATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S EAST OF LK ONTARIO TO THE LOWER 50S MOST
ELSEWHERE.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SETTING UP A MILDER RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE PACKAGES START TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL LEAN ON A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE SLOWER (DRIER) ECMWF TO KEEP FAIR INTACT
WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOME RAIN COULD MAKE ITS WAY UP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE COURSE OF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (SEE LONG TERM BELOW).

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SOAKING RAIN FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MOISTURE REMNANTS OF HISTORIC HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN...CONTINUED
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES WILL HELP TO
BLUR THE DETAILS.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A LARGE SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES DIGGING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LAY THE
GROUND WORK FOR A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS
SCENARIO WILL OPEN THE WESTERN GULF AND ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
SURGE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE FORECAST PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE NOT AS ANOMALOUS AS ONE MIGHT THINK THOUGH...AS ACTUAL
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
A HIGHER RISK FOR MORE COMPELLING VALUES TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ENCOURAGE THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THIS PLUME WILL BE THEN BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COMPLETION OF THIS PROCESS
WOULD LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A POWERFUL CYCLONE THAT WOULD
PASS FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO JAMES BAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE AXIS OF THE TROPICALLY ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL BE
GENERATED BY A STRONGLY COUPLED H25 JET AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS 12 TO 18 PERIOD
WHEN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
HIGH FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
AVERAGE AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED
SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

IT WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO BLUSTERY (IF NOT WINDY) AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STILL DEEPENING SFC LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY AND A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE LOCALIZED FUNNELING
COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. MEANWHILE...STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP MULTIPLE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN. LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
BANDS OF SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE GENERATED IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WHICH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THIS A STEADIER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD
OF A LLJ. THIS WILL BRING MARGINALLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS...HOWEVER
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE NW FLOW LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BEFORE
THIS...THE LLJ WILL NOT FULLY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN
LLWS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

EXPECT SUNDAY TO START OFF MAINLY MVFR FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED
BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND
START TO SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RAIN. MVFR/IFR.

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS TO THE LAKES
THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY FOR SLZ022.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

150 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION...BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...AND OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD. OVER THE LAST
IMAGE OR TWO THERE HAD BEEN NOTICED SOME RETREAT IN THE LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE TRIAD...AND RAP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
RAP...NAM BUFR...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST MIXING OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND MANY MORE BREAKS IN THEM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING. THE RAP MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING A FEW MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
DAY. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
GENERAL SURFACE AND 850MB DIVERGENCE IN A SURFACE AND 850MB THETA-E
TROUGH. A MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IF
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GUIDANCE FORECASTS VERIFY...WITH THE APPROACH
OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AS OF THIS WRITING.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE CONSENSUS OF MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...AND RAISED HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY FOR MAXES FORECAST IN
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO NEAR 75 TOWARD
KCTZ.

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND
ASSUME AN INCREASINGLY WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OVER THE VIRGINIAS BY 12Z
SUN MORNING. EXPECT LOWS TO BE MODERATED BY INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER...IN THE LOWER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN CENTRAL NC WHEN THE QUASI-STATIONARY (OR
TEMPORARILY STALLED) FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH THE NAM STILL INDICATES
MEASURABLE PRECIP...EVEN IT SHOWS LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. AS A RESULT...WILL INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES SUN AFT/EVE. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
SEVERAL FACTORS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...
FROPA SHOULD ONLY AFFECT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH VARYING DEGREES OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE PRESENT EVERYWHERE. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S FAR N/NW TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE
DRIVEN BY COLD ADVECTION VIA A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE...RANGING FROM
NEAR 50F IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN /VA BORDER/ TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTH. -VINCENT

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...

A MORE ACTIVE WEEK UPCOMING.

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 1030+ SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO
NC/SC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY... THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER... A HYBRID
COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED OVER OUR PIEDMONT
DAMMING REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER IN THE
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO (CONTAINING
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA) SUNDAY TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY. A COASTAL/WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INLAND INTO NC/VA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY... BUT IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FORECAST WAA PATTERN AND SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF UP AND OVER THE RETREATING COASTAL/WARM FRONT.
MODELS OFTEN BUST UP THESE CAD EVENTS TOO QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY WHEN
THE MAIN STORM TRACKS SO FAR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...
EXPECT A SLOWER DECAY OF THE CAD WEDNESDAY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY
STALL OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RAIN ENDS... POSSIBLY
INCREASING FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY... THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WITH CAA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE COOL AND CLOUDY TUESDAY... WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN... THEN RAIN LIKELY LATER TUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE CAD
PERIOD OF TUE-WED. THEN GO WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING BY THEN.

AS FAR AS WEATHER HAZARDS WITH THIS SYSTEM MID-WEEK... THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN TRENDING WITH A FASTER MOVEMENT AND A TRACK OF THE MAIN
STORM WELL TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE... THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL TO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LOWERING. HOWEVER... A MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENT WITH QPF OF 0.5 TO 1.5 STILL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE RAINFALL SHOULD LAST
LONGER.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAINED AS OF THIS WRITING NEAR...AND
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST...OF KRWI...AND JUST NORTH OF THE TRIAD...
BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THESE CEILINGS WERE VFR. MOSTLY MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND FEWER LONGER...SOME
SUB-VFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY TOWARD KFAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE SREF MODEL AVIATION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REALLY MOVES
IN...THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 20S KNOTS FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SPOTTY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WIDESPREAD DIMINISHING OF CEILING HEIGHTS BELOW VFR SHOULD OCCUR
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...IT MAY BE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
THE PROBABILITIES OF WIDESPREAD AND MORE CONTINUOUS VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KS/DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

935 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SURGE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...

A MORE ACTIVE WEEK UPCOMING.

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WITH BASES RANGING
FROM IFR (500-1000 FT AGL) TO MVFR/VFR (2500-4500 FT AGL) WERE
PRESENT NEAR THE TRIAD AND THE VIRGINIA BORDER AT 13Z THIS MORNING.
THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER 10KT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS (10-15
KFT AGL) WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFT/EVE INTO SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SUN AFT/EVE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTS LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS SUN/SUN NIGHT. IN
THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP/EVAP COOLING THE WEDGE WOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THIS IS LIKELY WHY GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CEILINGS ABOVE THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD (GENERALLY) AT 3000-4000 FT AGL SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KT LATE SUN
AFT...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT FOR A
SHORT PERIOD SUN EVE/NIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF/VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

950 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

DID INCLUDE PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG TO FAR NW FCST AREA. HRRR HAS
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING FOG AREA BRANDON MB SOUTHWARD
INTO CNTRL ND AND BRUSHING FAR NW FCST AREA MAINLY W/NW OF DEVILS
LAKE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

MAIN IMPACTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE PCPN CHANCES FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK AND POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
BLEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW -RA POTENTIAL ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM NE SD INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT WAVE IN NW ND GETS CLOSER. OVERALL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER WITH RAIN AMOUNTS SO KEPT POPS LOW
AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SE FA CLOSEST TO BOUNDARY. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 30 ACROSS THE NORTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA MONDAY AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUES.

AS NEXT WAVE LIFTS NE MONDAY NIGHT PCPN SHOULD LIFT FROM SW-NE
INTO THE FA. BEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE FA. COULD SEE A -RASN MIX LATE ACROSS THE NORTH
HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW
WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FA. UPPER LOW TRACK
WOULD FAVOR BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVER MN. LATEST RUNS SHIFTING
MAIN PCPN BAND A BIT FARTHER EAST GENERALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
MN.

AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY COLD AIR SPREADS
INTO THE FA WITH POTENTIAL FOR -RASN MIX IN WRAP AROUND. DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF WRAP AROUND COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. WILL ALSO SEE STRONG N-NW WINDS.

.EXTENDED (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
TO START THE PERIOD...WHICH ALL MODELS AGREE ON. DETAILS WILL
DETERMINE ACTUAL IMPACTS...INCLUDING WIND SPEEDS...SNOW
POTENTIAL...QPF AMOUNTS...PRECIP PLACEMENT. SNOW SEEMS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY...WITH WIND AND SOME SHOWERS THE MAIN CONCERNS. QUIET
WEATHER AFTER THAT...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

VFR THRUOGH THE FCST PD WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
AND A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS MAINLY EAST 5-10 KTS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

550 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. STILL MILD. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 MB FLOW HAS VEERED ON KRLX VAD FROM EAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 06Z TO 08Z
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS TRYING TO FORM IN THE DECOUPLED SOUTHERN WV
VALLEYS...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THICK FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW STRATUS DID FORM ON THE SE UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...
AND THE WESTERN EDGE WAS NEAR SNOWSHOE AND JUST EAST OF BECKLEY AT 08Z.

HAVE RENEGADE LIGHT SHOWERS OR JUST SPRINKLES POSSIBLE RIGHT AT THE START
OF TODAY IN OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES FALLING OUT OF MID DECK AND WEAK 500 MB
VORT MAXIMUMS. WE HAVE THE LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY 18Z TO 21Z...THEN THROUGH WV AFTER 21Z. NO
INSTABILITY ON MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT FELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM MAY FORM UPSTREAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH INTO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT DID NOT GO FURTHER
EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT.

WITH 925 MB FLOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS...AND SOME THIN SPOTS IN LAYERED CLOUDS...
WE INCREASE SURFACE WIND GUSTS ACROSS LOWLANDS WITH SOME 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME 30 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE SSE AND S FLOW.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WAS TO BE FASTER LOWERING POP LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS LINGER. BASING THIS FORECAST ON THE FRONT PASSING EAST
OF PKB-HTS BY 06Z AND EAST OF EKN-BKW BY 12Z SUNDAY. HAVE MOSTLY A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN. MANY COUNTIES NEED THE MOISTURE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
THE LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE BOUNDARY FOR THE MOST PART
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES WHERE
ITS NECESSARY TO HANG ON TO SOME RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WORK
WEEK. FROM THERE...THE PICTURE GETS A LITTLE FUZZY.

GOING TO REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA
FOR THE SYSTEM COMING IN FOR MID WEEK. THE FEED OF MOISTURE...WHILE
HAVING SOME PACIFIC ROOTS OF THE ONCE POWERFUL HURRICANE...WILL
PROBABLY GET OVERTAKEN IN TERMS OF OVERALL AMOUNT/CONTENT FROM GULF
OF MEXICO ORIGINATING MOISTURE. ALSO...THE EXPECTED CYCLOGENESIS IS
TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE
PACIFIC...ESPECIALLY AS PATRICIA GETS SHEARED APART TRAVERSING THE
MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO. YES...IT IS REMNANTS...BUT IT IS MORE
OTHER...STUFF.

THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN MUCH SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE...AND
MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE BACK END OF THE
NAM...FALLING IN LINE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE 00Z GFS. NAM IS
OUTNUMBERED IN TERMS OF THESE 3 OPERATIONAL MODELS...SO WILL GO WITH
THAT FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
COMING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CMC
ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM. SO WITH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL GO WITH WPC WHICH IS ON THE FASTER SIDE. THIS
BRINGS THE FRONT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROMPTS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MORE TROPICAL
LIKE MOISTURE FROM A WESTERN GULF SYSTEM WILL BE INGESTED INTO
THIS SYSTEM. THUS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN...BUT
NO WATER PROBLEMS EXPECTED AS THE GROUND IS QUITE DRY AND THE
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE. COME THURSDAY...THE FRONT EXITS EARLY WITH
LINGERING POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE AID
OF UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY FALLING BACK TO THE 50S THURSDAY. THE
REALLY COOL AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FLAKE
OR TWO BEFORE THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. LOOK FOR DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOWER STRATUS CEILINGS DID FORM AND MOVE BACK WEST...WITH CHEAT
MOUNTAIN ON SOUTH TO KBKW ON THE WESTERN EDGE. SO KBKW COULD GO
SCATTERED AT ANY TIME. STILL HAVE THESE LOWER CEILINGS DISSIPATING
AFTER 14Z AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

THE INCREASING FLOW DID PREVENT THE FOG. VSBY IMPROVED AT HTS AND
CRW BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SATURDAY. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING SOME 30
TO 35 KNOT FLOW AT 925 MB DEVELOPING IN CNTRL WV EARLY THIS MORING.
WILL LEAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS AT CRW AND PKB. YET...NR
10Z...KCRW 88D VAD WINDS WERE SENSING LOWER SPEEDS...ABOUT 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT 925 MBS.

TIMING MAIN COLD FRONT REACHING OH RIVER NEAR PKB AND HTS AROUND
06Z...THEN EKN TO BKW BY 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL SUPPORT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY
LIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AOA 5 THSD FT...BY 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE LOWERED IN TIMING THE VARIOUS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HAVE WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS 2 TO 5 THSD FT IN PREFRONTAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VSBY MOSTLY 3 TO 4 MILES IN THE SHOWERS.

THE HEAVIER SHOWERS FIGURED 22Z THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INCLUDED
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR SE
OHIO...NE KY...AND THE HTS VCNTY. MENTIONED A VCTS FOR HTS IN THE
06Z SET OF TAFS.

LOWER CEILINGS NEAR...AND IN WAKE OF...THE FRONT...REACHING OHIO
VALLEY BY 06Z SUNDAY. AVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1
THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN LINGERING POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...INCLUDING PKB AND HTS...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL WV TO CKB
VCNTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WITH KBKW ON WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER STRATUS AT DAWN
...CEILING COULD BECOME SCATTERED SOONER THAN FORECAST. BREAKS BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
MAY IMPROVE VSBY ABOVE FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 10/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS ALONG FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE...
LINGERING IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRIGNIA INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY COULD FORM IFR CEILINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

215 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. AFTER INTERROGATING LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK NAM MAY BE OVERDONE ON E SLOPE LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY RESULTING DRIZZLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE EAST. WILL LEAVE DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT IN THAT REGION AS MOISTURE DEPTH SEEMS SUFFICIENT. WITH
WINDS DEVELOPING...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

SOME PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS FIGHTING SOME DRY LAYERS
IN THE ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER...SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK TO THE
GROUND. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAT
ARE DEEPEST INTO THE MOISTURE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z SUNDAY...THE DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LITTLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GFS AND NAM ON THE
TIMING OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SEEMS A
BIT FASTER WITH THE WIND SHIFT REACHING THE OH RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY
WHILE THE NAM HAS IT BY 06Z. PREFERRED THE NAM TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND POPULATED WINDS ACCORDINGLY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING EDGE
OF PCPN REACHES SOUTHEAST OH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD
EAST NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF HEATING UPON THE FRONT ARRIVAL WILL DIMINISH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST. HOWEVER...FEW BANDS
OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN...ALONG BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
COMING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CMC
ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM. SO WITH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL GO WITH WPC WHICH IS ON THE FASTER SIDE. THIS
BRINGS THE FRONT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOTS OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROMPTS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MORE TROPICAL
LIKE MOISTURE FROM A WESTERN GULF SYSTEM WILL BE INGESTED INTO
THIS SYSTEM. THUS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN...BUT
NO WATER PROBLEMS EXPECTED AS THE GROUND IS QUITE DRY AND THE
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE. COME THURSDAY...THE FRONT EXITS EARLY WITH
LINGERING POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE AID
OF UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY FALLING BACK TO THE 50S THURSDAY. THE
REALLY COOL AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FLAKE
OR TWO BEFORE THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. LOOK FOR DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DROPPED CONFIDENCE TO MEDIUM. THE INCREASING SE FLOW 06Z TO 12Z WILL PRODUCE
LOW STRATUS CEILING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH WV SRN MOUNTAINS AND KBKW
ON WESTERN EDGE. AS A RESULT...HARD TO DETERMINE IF LOWER CEILING DEVELOPS AT
BKW. WILL GO WITH 1 THSD TO 15 HND CEILINGS FORMING THERE BEFORE DAWN THEN
DISSIPATING AFTER 14Z.

THINKING ANY SHALLOW FOG FORMING AT 06Z IN THE SRN RIVER VALLEYS
WILL STRUGGLE TO THICKEN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING SOME 30 TO 35 KNOT FLOW AT 925 MB DEVELOPING IN CNTRL
WV BEFORE DAWN. THINKING MIXING WILL NOT REACH SURFACE...WILL INCLUDE SOME
LLWS FOR KPKB AND KCRW MAINLY FOR THE 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME BEFORE SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE.

TIMING MAIN COLD FRONT REACHING OH RIVER NEAR PKB AND HTS AROUND 06Z...THEN EKN TO
BKW BY 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOB 5 THSD FT...TO REACH THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE LOWERED IN TIMING THE
VARIOUS BATCHES OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
2 TO 4 THSD FT IN PREFRONTAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VSBY MOSTLY 3 TO 4 MILES
IN THE SHOWERS.

THE HEAVIER SHOWERS FIGURED 22Z THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INCLUDED SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR SE OHIO...NE KY...AND THE HTS
VCNTY. MENTIONED A VCTS FOR HTS IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.

LOWER CEILINGS NEAR AND IN WAKE OF FRONT...REACHING OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS BKW
THIS MORNING. BREAKS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
WILL IMPROVE VSBY ABOVE FORECAST.

DATE SAT 10/24/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS ALONG FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE...INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRIGNIA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

142 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE STARTING IN THE
WEST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ONGOING
UNTIL IT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A
VERY MOIST SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LEADING BAND OF SPRINKLES HAS NOW
MOVED INTO WESTERN OH. HAVE SEEN ONLY ONE REPORT OF RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND DURING THE PAST HOUR AND IT WAS AT FWA.

SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEADING BAND WORKING
EAST BUT PRODUCING LITTLE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HRRR SHOWS A MORE
PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHRA WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL DEVELOPING FROM 04
TO 06Z NEAR THE STATE LINE AND WORKING EAST ALL THE WAY INTO EASTERN
OH BY 12Z BUT MOSTLY IN THE SNOWBELT AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO USE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND STICK WITH ONGOING FORECAST.

HAD ALREADY LOWERED LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL IN TWO
GRID UPDATES EARLIER. THINK THE FORECAST FINALLY HAS HANDLE ON THE
LOWS. ANY FURTHER TEMP FALL WILL BE MINIMAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN AND WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING CLOUD DECK. AS
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL OHIO THE MODELS
INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER INDIANA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT THEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL JET COULD MAKE FOR SOME
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH PAST PEAK HEATING
HOURS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BROKEN LINE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO CAPITALIZE
ON THE SHEAR.

EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER...ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT RAIN AS PW`S JUMP TO AROUND 1.5" SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER (3KM) WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RELATIVE TO THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY BRING DOWN
HEAVY RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS. GIVEN HOW DRY THE AREA HAS BEEN THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THE
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STORM MOTIONS NEAR 50KT.

THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN WITH NW FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAKE (WHICH CONTINUES TO COOL
INTO THE 50S) AND THE H850 IS NOT NOTABLE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL SUDDENLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OF PATRICIA WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE DEEPENING TROUGH...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING THE LOCAL AREA.

THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD REACH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TAPPING SOME COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY NOT CONSISTENT THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE WHEN IT COMES TO PHASING A LONG WAVE TROUGH.

HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 MID
WEEK...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL PERSIST WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A LOT OF DRY AIR BUT OVER TIME...LOWER LEVELS
WILL MOISTEN UP. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING AND
SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF A TOLEDO AND FINDLAY LINE. COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.

.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR POSSIBLE FOR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SUNDAY. NON VFR LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
STILL CHOPPY ON LAKE ERIE WITH A BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW. THE
WIND MAY ACTUALLY COME UP A FEW KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION
BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE FROM THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BUT WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES HEADING INTO THE OPEN WATERS AND CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND WHERE THE WIND WILL COME AROUND
FROM THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NASHVILLE TN

631 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 25/12Z...ESPECIALLY DEALING WITH ACTUAL
CEILING FLUCTUATIONS. PER TRYING TO MAKE 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS AS
SUCCINCT AS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS
THRU 25/12Z THAT WILL NOT IMPACT VFR VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 25/03Z...AND
THEN PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POLLING POTENTIAL AHEAD OF NWLY APPROACHING
SFC FRONT. ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT WORST EXPECTED THRU 25/12Z PER SLOW
ATM MOISTENING. PER THIS GRADUAL MOISTENING OF ATM LOW LEVELS THRU 25/12Z...
A TRANSITION TO MVFR TO IFR/LIFR APPROACHING 25/12Z ESPECIALLY CKV/CSV
PER AMPLE POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL EXPECTED. SLY SFC
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BACK TO NWLY-N AFTER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE CKV/BNA
WITH SFC FRONT PUSHING NEAR VCNTY OF CSV BY 25/12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM(TODAY-MONDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE ON
APPROACH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TN
TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWING VERY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH 20Z TODAY. WILL OPT TO CONTINUE THE RATHER HIGH POPS FOR
TODAY WITH THE VALUES RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT SOUTHEAST TO 80
PERCENT FAR NORTHWEST. SIMILAR POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE FROPA OCCURS. OVERALL FORCING IS NOT VERY STRONG IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS. FURTHERMORE...MRH DEPTH COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
THUS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH BUT THE
850 MB BOUNDARY WILL BE RIGHT OVER US. MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TO BE
MUCH BETTER OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL THEREFORE SWITCH THE LIKELY
POP AREA ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND KEEP A CHANCE GOING NORTH.
AGAIN...DYNAMICS ARE NOT REAL STRONG AND SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE KEPT
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...TIME TO START TALKING ABOUT PATRICIA.
SUNDAY EVENING...SHE WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN LA.
AT THAT POINT...A MUCH BROADER AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE TAKING
AIM ON THE MID STATE. 12Z MON...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN MAKING IT ACROSS MIDDLE TN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
MOISTURE...THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE LIKELY RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM NOW THROUGH MON NT
LOOK LIKE 1/2 TO 1 INCH EAST...1 TO 2 INCHES WEST.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...NOT AS WARM TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVES IN. THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM(TUE-FRI)...
THE FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES CONTINUES
TO CENTER AROUND A WX PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS SHWRS...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISO
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THRU WED NIGHT. MORE OF AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
SOLUTION THIS MORNING BEING REACHED...WITH THE REMANTS OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW OFF THE
TX/LA COAST BY TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH NWD TO NEAR MEMPHIS
BY DAYBREAK WED AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY NEWD BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THEN PUSHING NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BY THU. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCES THE REGIONS WX STARTING ON LATE TUE BRINGING
WITH IT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT...THE TWO MOST
PRONOUNCED ONES BEING ONE PASSAGE TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WED...WITH ANOTHER PASSAGE ACROSS THE MID STATE WED NIGHT. ROCKIES
BASED SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION AS
THU PROGRESSES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES FINALLY PUSHING
E OF THE MID STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU...ALLOWING BUILDING
RIDGING INFLUENCES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID STATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG SFC LOW VCNTY TRACK...WITH NOW
A GENERAL TREND PROJECTION FROM TUE THRU THU OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...AS STATED IN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION AND CONTINUES TO BE TRUE AT THIS HOUR ALSO...
CHANGE IN SFC LOW TRACK FARTHER EWD ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL SURGE MOISTURE MOVING FARTHER NORTH OR LASTING LONGER...
CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT STATEMENTS OR HEADLINES FOR HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
MIGHT BE NEEDED. SO THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES...SOME WET WX FOR THE
MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

TAKING A LOOK AT TEMPS TUE THRU FRI...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES TUE AND WED...WITH LOWS GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...
SPANNING THE 50S...ON TUE NIGHT. AS ABOVE MENTIONED ROCKIES BASED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE MID STATE...IT WILL BRING
WITH IT AN ACCOMPANYING COLDER AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWS
AROUND 50 WED NIGHT...HIGHS ON THU SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40...WITH HIGHS ON FRI ONCE AGAIN REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...SPANNING THE LOWER 60S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 58 64 56 / 70 60 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 73 54 66 54 / 80 70 40 30
CROSSVILLE 71 56 63 54 / 50 50 60 40
COLUMBIA 74 58 65 55 / 60 50 60 50
LAWRENCEBURG 74 59 67 57 / 50 50 60 50
WAVERLY 73 56 65 55 / 80 70 50 30
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

347 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY-MONDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE ON
APPROACH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TN
TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWING VERY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH 20Z TODAY. WILL OPT TO CONTINUE THE RATHER HIGH POPS FOR
TODAY WITH THE VALUES RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT SOUTHEAST TO 80
PERCENT FAR NORTHWEST. SIMILAR POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE FROPA OCCURS. OVERALL FORCING IS NOT VERY STRONG IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS. FURTHERMORE...MRH DEPTH COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
THUS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...NOT AS WARM TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVES IN. THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM(TUE-FRI)...
THE FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES CONTINUES
TO CENTER AROUND A WX PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS SHWRS...WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISO
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THRU WED NIGHT. MORE OF AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
SOLUTION THIS MORNING BEING REACHED...WITH THE REMANTS OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW OFF THE
TX/LA COAST BY TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH NWD TO NEAR MEMPHIS
BY DAYBREAK WED AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY NEWD BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THEN PUSHING NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BY THU. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCES THE REGIONS WX STARTING ON LATE TUE BRINGING
WITH IT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT...THE TWO MOST
PRONOUNCED ONES BEING ONE PASSAGE TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WED...WITH ANOTHER PASSAGE ACROSS THE MID STATE WED NIGHT. ROCKIES
BASED SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION AS
THU PROGRESSES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES FINALLY PUSHING
E OF THE MID STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU...ALLOWING BUILDING
RIDGING INFLUENCES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID STATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

21/31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

909 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MSAS
SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS UNDER A PERSISTENT LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 85H-
7H OFF THE RNK EVENING SOUNDING THAT HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
RAINFALL TO A MINIMUM SO FAR. WEAK IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIKELY HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE OF BRINGING ENOUGH
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY -RA/SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTH/WEST LATE
PER HIGHER PWATS OFF THE GSO SOUNDING BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS IFFY
GIVEN WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO BASICALLY DRY
EXCLUDING THE HRRR SO THINKING MAINLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
DEEPENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SEEN VIA IR PICS. FOR NOW WILL CUT
OUT POPS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND THEN KEEP SOME LOW/SLIGHT
CHANCES IN MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF THE NEW RIVER THROUGH DAWN WHICH
MAY STILL BE GENEROUS.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND...AND THE TRUE 85H BOUNDARY SLOWER...APPEARS
THE DEEPER WEDGE MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE AND MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THUS UPPING LOWS A FEW DEGREES ESPCLY SOUTH-SW WHERE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER AND BEST COOL ADVECTION WONT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE PROVIDED LIMITED COOLING UNDER LACK OF PRECIP. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY 45-50 EXCEPT 50-55 SOUTH.

BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH LIFT OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF US MONDAY WITH STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SE
LOUISIANA. DRIER AIR WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH FROM 1034 HIGH OVER
UPSTATE NY IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MAY KEEP
PLACES LIKE LYNCHBURG TO HOT SPRINGS DRY MONDAY...THOUGH STILL
THINK THE HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY...PLUS WITH INCREASE SE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE KEEPING IT RATHER
CLOUDY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. COULD
SEE QUICK SHOT OF SUNSHINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 FROM HOT SPRINGS TO
BUCKINGHAM.

MONDAY LOOKS CHILLY/DAMP FOR MOST WITH STRONG WEDGE IN
PLACE...KEEPING HIGHS SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SE WV...SUCH THAT
TEMPS MAY ONLY RISE 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM LOWS MONDAY MORNING TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SW OUTSIDE THE WEDGE...STILL EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOWARD RICHLANDS/CHILHOWIE...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 50S AROUND DANVILLE/YANCEYVILLE TO
KEYSVILLE...WITH LACK OF PRECIP.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY.

BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO
NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA.
WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY
APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WILL NOT YET SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BUILD INTO THE
AREA. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL SUPPORT A WIDE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S FOR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER...TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE WHERE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT A RETURN OF SPOTTY UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW
HOURS...MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...DRAWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE WINDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
BECOMING CALM TO ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
START SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HOWEVER EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WEDGES SOUTH TO
THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...THE FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST-EAST.

MOISTURE SURGES BACK TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL SEE CIGS DROP
BELOW 3KFT AT BLF/BCB BY 08-12Z WITH CIGS BELOW 1KFT POSSIBLE AT
BLF. LWB/ROA WILL BE BELOW 3KFT AFTER 11-14Z...WHILE LYH/DAN STAY
VFR. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN OVERRUNNING/UPSLOPE
PATTERN AT BLF/BCB...WHICH COULD BRING VSBYS DOWN TO IFR. HOWEVER
AIRMASS APPEARS QUITE DRY AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
INCREASES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

537 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINY CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISPLAY AREAS OF RAIN MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
TODAY. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE
WITH H5 RIDGING TODAY. EXPECT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE H5 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS
TODAY BECOMING CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANGE DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE RIDGE
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT IT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECASTED LESS OF A SHOWER CHANCE
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING AND DIMINISHED
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY TOTAL RAINFALL TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 0.5 TO 1.5 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS 1 TO
1.5 OF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM HAD SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO NEAR -3
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTED H85
WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS INDICATED LESS SHEAR
COMPARED TO THE NAM. WE HAVE INCLUDED POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH HIGH SHEAR SUPPORTS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM TUESDAY
BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST WEDGE PATTERN. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY IN AN ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 10 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND 20 PERCENT
SUNDAY. THE MOS INDICATES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT THINK THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LAST
ONLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS EASTERLY WINDS PUSH
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND SUNRISE WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND WEDGE
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

524 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY AND ERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW
FLOW THROUGH NRN MN UPPER MI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SE SD
INTO SRN MN WHILE HIGH PRES DOMINATED THE ERN LAKES. THE COMBINATION
OF FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850-700 MB FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 110 KNOT 250-300 MB JET THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM E CNTRL MN INTO NW WI. WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN TO THE NE HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED PREVIOUS MDLS FCSTS.

TODAY...TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR
CNTRL AND EAST UPPER MI. AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...PER UPSTREAM OBS. RADAR
TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND TO THE ENE THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN OVER
MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z...EXCEPT THE NRN KEWEENAW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONGER 850-600 MB
FGEN AND RAIN WILL SPREAD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF M-28. FARTHER SOUTH...RAIN REMAINS LIKELY. OVERALL PCPN
SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN MODEST GENERALLY FROM 0.10-0.33...GREATEST NEAR
US-2.

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH OVERALL LOOK TO PATTERN THIS WEEK. MAIN
FEATURE IS DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID CONUS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MERGE TOGETHER. LARGER SCALE
TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PHASES WITH TROUGH SLIDING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE FM ONTARIO TO THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES TO EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE BROAD SFC TROUGHING
FORMS FM CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY AS SFC HIGH IS STILL IN VCNTY
ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BUT CLOUDY SKIES FM MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

ONCE THE SFC-H85 RIDGE MOVES EAST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE-S
WHICH WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TIED TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA /PWATS AT 00Z MONDAY
OVER 2.0 INCHES ALONG GULF COAST WHICH IS OVER 225 PCT OF NORMAL/
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PWATS ADVECTING INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END UP PUSHING OVER 1 INCHES.
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH RESULTS IN SWATH OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY FAR...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS
WELL TO THE EAST AIMED MORE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BUT STILL
THINK BTWN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENING SFC
LOW...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN.
COMPLEX INTERACTIONS STILL HAVE TO OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM TO COME
TOGETHER...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW APPEARS MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC AS IT DEEPENS FM 995-1000MB AT 06Z
ON WEDNESDAY OVER IA/IL TO 978-982MB AT 06Z THURSDAY BTWN LK
SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. EXACT TRACK OF LOW AND RATE OF DEEPENING
QUITE UNCERTAIN STILL AND THIS WILL HAVE DIRECT AFFECT ON STRENGTH
OF WINDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY WOULD
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY NEAR LK MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN CWA WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF LK SUPERIOR. LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO SORT
OUT THESE DETAILS AND WHETHER ANY WIND HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. GALES
A GOOD BET OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.

ATTN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AS THE SFC LOW OCCLUDES NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR AROUND 980MB BUT UPPER LOW REMAINS STRONG AS IT CROSSES
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LOT OF MOISTURE TO H7 AND LOOKING AT H85-H7
THETA-E THERE IS HINT OF TROWAL CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR AND THE FAVORABLE LARGER
SCALE FORCING SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WRAPS INTO REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW. STILL LOOKS
LIKE LOWEST H85 TEMPS STAY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. GFS
AND NAM COLDER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -4C OR -5C
COMPARED TO -2C OR -3C. FIGURING PTYPE WOULD BE MINIMAL ISSUE IF
THIS WAS JUST PURE LAKE EFFECT AS H85 TEMPS OF EVEN -5C ARE
BORDERLINE WITH WATER TEMPS NOW AROUND 8C. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS
AMPLE LIFT/MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER AREA LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...EVEN THESE MARGINALLY COOL H85 TEMPS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND COULD ALSO LEAD TO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER
WEST HALF INTERIOR. EVEN ELSEWHERE WHERE LAKE EFFECT IS AT A
MINIMUM...WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 40 NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ONLY REACH LOW-MID
40S FARTHER INLAND AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

SHOULD SEE TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT LATE DAY THURSDAY OVER
WEST THEN OVER REST OF LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE DEPART EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. CYCLONIC NW
WINDS IN BLYR WITH MOISTURE UP TO H8 AND H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C
SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. SFC
RIDGE MOVING ON FRIDAY WILL DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BELOW THE INVERSION. KEPT SMALL
CHANCES OVER EASTERN CWA NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS A SHADE WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

USED CONSENSUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS STILL MORE WET THAN THE ECMWF
OR GEM-NH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LGT RAIN SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. TIMING AND EXTENT OF POPS WILL GET REFINED THROUGH THE WEEK
AS PATTERN DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT POPS WILL BE NEEDED ALL WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL SHOW SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER LATE WEEK CHILL...BUT
SHOULD END UP AROUND NORMAL FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

AS AN AREA OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY APRCHG WARM FNT MOVES
INTO UPR MI SW-NE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
TO IMPACT IWD AND THEN SAW BY MID/LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH THE -SHRA WL
DIMINISH DURING THIS AFTN...LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
AT BOTH THESE LOCATIONS. UNDER SOME MID LVL DRYING AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...IFR CIGS MAY
IMPACT SAW THIS EVNG. SINCE CMX SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE RA AREA...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KTS INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO GALES WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT. WITH
CAA BRINGING DEEP MIXING...THE GALES MAY REACH 40 KNOTS OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. EXPECT THE GALES TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
25 KNOTS BY FRI AFTERNOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

517 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KTS INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THU INTO THU NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1149 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

NO FURTHER CHANGED NEEDED. PATCHY FOG CANDO AND ROLLA AND MINOT.
OTHERWISE SPRINKLES ENDING IN WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

MAIN IMPACTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE PCPN CHANCES FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK AND POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
BLEND.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA MONDAY AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

VFR THRU THE FCST PD. SCT-BKN AC/CI THRU THE FCST PD...MOST
COVERAGE IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT DVL
AIRPORT EARLY MORNING BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM. HRRR
INDICATES BEST CHANCES TO ITS WEST. INCREASE IN CIRRUS AND THEN AC
LATER IN THE DAY INTO MON EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WITH RAIN
ARRIVING IN FARGO AREA MID TO LATE MON EVENING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

159 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLOUD COVER IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED EARLIER.
HAVE INCREASED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT THE FAR N-NE SECTIONS...WHERE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
THINNER THAN FURTHER SOUTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO OTHER GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.

AS OF 820 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR FROM HYBRID TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS LA/ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...TYPICAL
WEDGE DEVELOPMENT IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION...FEEL THAT NORTHEAST DRY FLOW WILL SUPPRESS MUCH FURTHER
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
STRONG GRADIENT OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER MAKING NO FURTHER
PROGRESS NORTHWARD.

WITH THIS IN MIND AND AGREED UPON BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE
SCALED BACK CONSIDERABLY ON INTRODUCTION OF CLOUDS BELOW 080 AND
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE FAR SW VA AND WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT TO NEAR BLF...FEEL THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY MORNING AND ITS
ATTEMPT TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE
INCREASING DRY NORTHEAST FLOW.

AFT 00Z TUE...NORTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ENE-E...AND ESE
INTO SW VA/SE WV. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER UPSLOPE AND ADVANCEMENT
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL
THAT CIGS BELOW 030 WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 06Z TUE...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH BLF CLOSELY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME TUE.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD BECAUSE OF
CLOUD COVER AND WIND.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...GENERALLY NE-ENE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD ESE FAR SW VA/SOUTHEAST WV BY
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 5-7KTS THROUGH 14Z...BECOMING 6-9KTS WITH LOW
END GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

152 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 820 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...

DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD BECAUSE OF
CLOUD COVER AND WIND.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1151 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA
FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH TRANSLATING INTO THE WESTERN US ATTM. WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP
FREE UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH INCREASING PVA AND DEEPER MOISTURE. WV SAT
SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THE
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF UNTIL LATE. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN
A FEW HOURS BASED ON THIS THINKING. BEST LIFT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHERE WE KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE AFTER 18Z. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. NAM/GFS/ECM THERMAL PROFILES
SHOW H7 TEMPS AROUND 0C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY 18Z...SO
SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 8000-8500 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATIONS...OTHER THAN A COUPLE INCHES IN THE SNOWIES/SIERRA
MADRES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN
TODAY GIVEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION BENEATH THE
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 TO
8000 FEET. GFS ON TUESDAY SHOWS AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE MORNING WITH THE PASSING OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THIS WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER THE LARAMIE
RANGE. GFS IS SHOWING 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KTS. BY WEDNESDAY
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVE OVERHEAD WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW SPLIT FLOW WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
STAYING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHICH WOULD KEEP POPS
LOW. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND ALSO ALONG
THE PINE RIDGE WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR OR
NEAR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR KRWL...KLAR...KCDR AND KAIA IN THE
09-13Z TIMEFRAME. SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING THRU THE AFTERNOON AT
KSNY AS SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS FOR MONDAY AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING FOR KCDR OFF THE PINE
RIDGE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2015

NON-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COOL/SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT EACH DAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...KC/CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1005 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING RAOBS SHOW A WELL CAPPED AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION H85-H60 LYR WITH PWAT VALUES JUST ABV
1.0". RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST THRU THE FL STRAITS GENERATING A 15-20KT E/SE FLOW
THRU 10KFT...TAPPING AN AIRMASS WITH MEAN RH VALUES ARND 60PCT THRU
THE LYR. FURTHER WEST...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LWR MS
VALLEY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING S INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE RIDGE BLOCKS OUT ANY EWD ESCAPE
ROUTE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FCST AS THE DEEP E/SE FLOW WILL ALLOW A FEW
SHRAS TO DVLP UNDER THE CAP IN THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...CAP IS
TOO DEEP AND TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DVLP.
LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL GIVEN THE UPSTREAM LOW LVL MOISTURE
FIELD...QPF BLO 0.10". SAME SOURCE REGION AS IN RECENT DAYS...MAX
TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUITE: L/M80S AREAWIDE.

NEAR DROWNINGS WERE REPORTED IN THE OCEAN OFF BREVARD COUNTY
YESTERDAY. ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.

.AVIATION...THRU 27/12Z.
SFC WNDS: THRU 27/00Z...E/SE 8-12KTS WITH OCNL SFC G20KTS CSTL
SITES. BTWN 27/00Z-27/03Z...BCMG E/SE 4-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/00Z...SLGT CHC BRIEF MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES.
AFT 27/00Z...SLGT CHC BRIEF MVFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES.

.MARINE...

RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THRU THE FL STRAITS
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LCL DATA
BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SHOWING WINDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH SEAS
4-6FT. BORDERLINE SCA CONDS PSBL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GOMEX. WILL INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH TO MATCH OFFSHORE
BUOY OBS...BUT COASTAL SFC OBS DO NOT SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

800 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT AGS/DNL MAY LIFT AROUND 15Z AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH. NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE AROUND
10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES TODAY WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 12 TO 17
KNOTS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS LIGHT RAIN HELPS TO COOL
THE LOWER LEVELS. THE HRRR SHOWS RAIN SHIFTING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE RAIN IN TAFS OVERNIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND WEDGE
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

738 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

AS AN AREA OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
IMPACT IWD AND SAW. ALTHOUGH THE -SHRA WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER AT BOTH
THESE LOCATIONS. UNDER SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...IFR CIGS MAY IMPACT SAW
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. SINCE CMX SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE RA
AREA... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1021 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO OUR REGION
INTO MID WEEK...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAROLINAS WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN INTO THE 30S IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE SURFACE GRADIENT WAS SUCH THAT WINDS WERE
GUSTING IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20KT. IN THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS SHOWN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COUPLED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SURFACE TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...AREA RADAR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SPRINKLES OR...IN SOME SPOTS...MORE
NOTICEABLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.

THIN PATCHES IN CLOUDS AT TIMES SHOULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF U.S. 1...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK...DRY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND K INDICES FALL SOME DURING THE DAY. RAP SOUNDINGS
THERE ARE FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BELOW ABOUT
700MB. TO THE WEST... PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING THROUGH THE 700MB LAYER AS THE 850MB LAYER
DRIES A LITTLE. 850MB LIFT IS WEAK TODAY...BUT THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AND 700MB MOISTENING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME SOME OF THE 850MB DRYING AND RESULT IN
AREAS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FAR WEST AND MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL
NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE OF
THESE IN A RELATIVE SENSE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO U.S. 1 AS OPPOSED TO
INTERSTATE 95. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
50S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD...THOUGH WITH A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 65 ALONG
INTERSTATE 95.

OVERNIGHT...THE DEAMPLIFICATION/APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID-UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN BOTH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AN ACCELERATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH WILL CULMINATE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/ NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AREA OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
- FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE MODEL BIAS OF OFTEN TIMES BEING TOO SLOW WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISENTROPICALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION...IT IS HARD
TO IGNORE THE SLOWER TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE -REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST- PRESUMABLY OWING TO THE DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING CP SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S (AND UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT) THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WHICH WILL TAKE TIME TO
OVERCOME. LOWS...EVAPORATIVELY-COOLED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWFA WHERE RAIN MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT TUESDAY INTO MID-DAY WEDNESDAY...

RAIN WITH A WELL DEFINED HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) EVENT IS
EXPECTED OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION TUESDAY INTO MID-DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION MARKS CONTINUE TO
BE WITH THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEMISE OF THE
CAD EVENT WED... AND THE RESULTANT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CAD EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION. THIS IS COURTESY OF THE 1035+ MB HIGH
WEDGED INTO OUR REGION. A COASTAL/WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INLAND INTO
NC/VA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS UP ALONG OR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. OVERRUNNING RAINS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH QPF
OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH LESSER TOTALS IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION... IT APPEARS THAT THE CAD WILL WAX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION MAY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S BETWEEN 18Z-23Z TUESDAY BEFORE BEFORE
STEADYING OUT AND THEN POSSIBLY SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 50S BEFORE
12Z WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH AROUND
00Z/WED... BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM GSB TO
FAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY... THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO VA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... RESIDUAL CAD CONDITIONS (LOW
OVERCAST/FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN) WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE NW PORTIONS OF OUR PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES IN THIS
REGION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. IF THE SKIES BECOME PARTLY OR
VARIABLY CLOUDY... READINGS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR
70. HOWEVER... IF THE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG LINGER LONGER... UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S MAY BE ALL THAT WE CAN MUSTER. CONVERSELY...
TEMPERATURES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH THE
RAIN BECOMING MORE PATCHY AND LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS/LOW TOPPED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY... BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD AID IN WARMING/DRYING ON THURSDAY
AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS 40-45 AND HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT OUT
OF TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THROUGH AROUND 16Z...AS THE
BRUNT OF THE HIGH AND (COLD/DRY AIR) BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500-6000 FT WILL DISPERSE FROM THE NORTHEAST...PARTICULARLY
FROM RDU TO RWI...AS THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR RIDGES SOUTH.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL RE-DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT...AS
EASTERLY FLOW CENTERED AROUND 2000 FT STRENGTHENS AND OVER-RUNS THE
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TUE.

OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WED --EARLY IN THE DAY AT RWI/FAY AND
MUCH LATER IN THE DAY OR EVEN WED NIGHT AT TRIAD SITES. LLWS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WHEN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAXIMIZES ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/26
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1001 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF I64. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. UPDATED POPS BASED ON HRRR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR LOUISIANA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM STREAMING A THICK VEIL OF CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE STEADILY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT COPIOUS MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY FROM THE
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW TO THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN OUR AREA...THE VEERING FLOW AS THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS WILL BRING A DOMINANT SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
CREATING TO MAIN POINTS. THE FIRST WILL BE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST...AND SOME DOWN SLOPING EFFECTS. THE
MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS RESPECT ARE THE
INCREASES IN THE POPS FROM INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND THE
ELIMINATION OF THE CLOUD COVER DOWN SLOPING EFFECT. LOW LEVELS WILL
DRY OUT SOME...WHICH IS WHY THE QPF ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ABOVE ANY TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.
CLOUDS SOCKED IN AT 100 PERCENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

TEMPERATURES RUN MILD WEDNESDAY IN THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH LOWLAND 70S DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN. MODEST COOL OFFS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY DUE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO E CANADA WITH A DRY THURSDAY SHAPING UP. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR CARRYING OVER INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN A BELOW NORMAL...REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IFR FOG NEAR ELKINS THAT DEVELOPED IN LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. CIRRUS MAY TEMPER FOG
LONGEVITY AS THICKER CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD. MENTIONED A LITTLE
MVFR CIGS AT KBKW AS WELL IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT LOWER CIGS VSBYS TO BEGIN TO CREEP IN THE SRN TAF
SITES AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM...EXCEPT LOW AT KEKN THIS MORNING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CLOUDS IN BECKLEY MONDAY
COULD VARY. TIMING OF PRECIP LIFTING NORTHWARD MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST.

UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...

INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD FORM
IFR CEILINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

624 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER STRATUS DECK
TO THE NORTH OF VCT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE VCT AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR
SKIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT NOT
LIKE YESTERDAY. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY 00Z TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OPEN INTO A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LOW CLOUDS
BACK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. BUT LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
AT 295K LEVEL INDICATES THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE BAYS SO CANCELLED
THE SCA EARLY. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BAYS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCA WILL EXPIRE
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 18Z AND OFFSHORE AT 00Z TUE.

TIDES...OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED THE TIDE AND BAY LEVELS
ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WITH A CONTINUED MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY...DECREASING TIDE AND BAY LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS AND QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR TO
BELOW 1 INCH. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE COMING WEEKEND MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO IMPACT THE REGION.
ECMWF CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHILE GFS KEEPS SYSTEM MORE OF A DEEP TROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING OVER THE END OF THE WEEK. MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS AS BETTER TIMING AND CONSISTENCY
DEVELOP WITH MODELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY AND
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
MORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 58 84 62 85 / 10 0 10 0 0
VICTORIA 75 56 82 59 84 / 10 0 10 0 0
LAREDO 80 55 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 80 55 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 62 81 66 82 / 10 0 10 0 0
COTULLA 79 53 85 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 55 86 60 88 / 10 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 63 81 67 82 / 10 0 10 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

TMT/89...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

410 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS OUR
PORTION OF THE NATION BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MS DELTA REGION WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST COINCIDENT
WITH A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT. AT THE
SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE QG FORCING ALOFT OVER TOP STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FEATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPGLIDE IS
BEING DRIVEN BY A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING 50
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
SOME OF THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN WITHIN CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE AL/MS COAST AND OFFSHORE
PLATFORMS WERE GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS...AND THESE GUSTS HAVE NOW
EXTENDED OVER TO BUOY 42039 SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. BUOY 42036 SOUTH
OF APALACHICOLA IS NOW GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE. SOME OF THESE
GUSTS WILL BE ENTERING OUR FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY
SOME FAIRLY ROUGH WEATHER NOT TOO FAR AWAY GEOGRAPHICALLY...
HOWEVER...THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM (OTHER THAN THE ELEVATED COASTAL
WATERS WINDS AND SEAS) WILL BEEN MOSTLY STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BE WEAKENING FAIRLY
DRAMATICALLY BY THE TIME THE SYNOPTIC ELEMENTS DRIVING THE WEATHER
FINALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THIS WHOLE SYSTEM IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD AS
IT RUNS INTO WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS MOST DEFINED BETWEEN 600-400MB AND
WAS SAMPLED WELL BY THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700MB. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PROTECT OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING IS LEAST CONFIDENT UP
TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES. THESE ZONES WILL BE ON THE VERY EDGE
OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY OUT FROM UNDER THE
PROTECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/SREF MEANS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
LYING RIGHT THROUGH THESE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NATURE COAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY
COLUMN IN THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THE MOISTURE
EVAPORATING INTO THIS LAYER WILL ERODE THE DRIER AIR...AND THE
BETTER SYNOPTICS FOR LIFT WILL BE CREEPING SLOWLY CLOSER AND
CLOSER.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... TONIGHT...THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TO MOVE FURTHER EAST...AT THE SAME
TIME...THE VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING THE LOW IS
UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/GA. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR
FORECAST? WITH WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT FALLS/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE EFFICIENCY OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD LESSEN...ALONG WITH
THE SIZE OF THE SWATH OF BEST LIFT. THE WAY ALL OF THIS IS SETTING
UP...WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS REMAINING LIFT ALOFT TO STAY
WEST/NW OF A GOOD PORTION OF OUR ZONES...KEEPING THE FORECAST
MAINLY DRY. ONCE AGAIN THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE. A LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWN BY ALL THE GUIDANCE WILL EXTEND OVERNIGHT
FROM THE LOW CENTER NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ADEQUATE UPGLIDE BETWEEN THE 295-315K
SURFACES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST "SHOWER ACTIVITY" INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. WILL STILL ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAINFALL STAYS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THAT THE SHOWERS THAT DO ARRIVE INTO
LEVY/CITRUS ARE GENERALLY NOT ON THE HEAVY SIDE.

THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL STAY IN THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

THE WEAKENING LEFTOVER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINING
ATMOSPHERIC PUSH AND LESSENING INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST TO
FINALLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED...THAT THE DEFINITION OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY LATE TOMORROW COMPARED TO
ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE. EACH GUIDANCE MEMBER HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING ITS TAKE ON THE SITUATION FOR TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS
AND SREF. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
ALL THE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO ITS SOLUTION OF A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING STRONGER UPGLIDE/WAA INTO
THE NATURE COAST. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-4
DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 1-2" QPF AMOUNTS
BEING PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. WE DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THE QPF
BREAKDOWN FOR THE ECMWF BETWEEN STABLE AND PARAMETERIZED PRECIP IN
OUR SYSTEMS LIKE WE DO FOR MANY OF THE NCEP MODELS...HOWEVER WOULD
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF QPF IS COMING
FROM THE MODEL PHYSICS ITSELF OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. IF
IT WAS COMING FROM THE STABLE SIDE OF THE PICTURE...THEN MIGHT BE
MORE WILLING TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINLY STILL PRESENT...WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NATURE COAST...BUT FOR LIGHTER
AMOUNTS...AND THEN TAPER POPS DOWN THE FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ONE TRAVELS THROUGH THE PENINSULA. THE TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR TUESDAY...BUT WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL HOLD THINGS IN THE 80S. IF MORE
BREAKS OF SUN ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING TIMES OF PEAK
HEATING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THEN WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STATIONS APPROACHING 90.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A SHARP U/L RIDGE THROUGH THE U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.

SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FILL
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG S/W DISTURBANCE WILL DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE U/L RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
INDUCE A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ABSORB REMNANT U/L ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH U/L SUPPORT
WILL BE RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE CAPE COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL RUN IN THE LOWER 80S
NORTH AND CENTRAL TO THE MID 80S SOUTH...WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO WINDS OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS A STRONG SYSTEM CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND U/L ENERGY CUTS OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...ROTATING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
80S. THE CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT STRONG UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S. WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS IN PHASE CARVING OUT
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT THE GUSTS WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARD
SUNSET. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASING OVERNIGHT...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWER CHANCE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KTPA/KPIE
AND KSRQ.

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING ON TUESDAY...
AND THEN PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ELEVATED WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 86 75 84 / 20 50 50 40
FMY 72 87 75 85 / 20 20 30 50
GIF 70 87 73 85 / 10 30 30 50
SRQ 73 84 75 83 / 20 50 50 50
BKV 71 85 73 84 / 20 50 50 40
SPG 73 85 75 84 / 20 50 50 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...OGLESBY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1215 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS OUR
PORTION OF THE NATION BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MS DELTA REGION WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST COINCIDENT
WITH A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT. AT THE
SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE QG FORCING ALOFT OVER TOP STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FEATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPGLIDE IS
BEING DRIVEN BY A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING 50
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
SOME OF THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN WITHIN CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE AL/MS COAST AND OFFSHORE
PLATFORMS HAVE ROUTINELY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
OBVIOUSLY SOME FAIRLY ROUGH WEATHER NOT TOO FAR AWAY
GEOGRAPHICALLY...HOWEVER...THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEEN
MOSTLY STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND BE WEAKENING FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY BY THE TIME THE
SYNOPTIC ELEMENTS DRIVING THE WEATHER FINALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THIS WHOLE SYSTEM IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD IT
IS RUNS INTO WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS MOST DEFINED BETWEEN 600-400MB AND
WAS SAMPLED WELL BY THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700MB. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PROTECT OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH BELOW THE RIDGE THAT WE LIKELY WILL SEE
A FEW SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT MOST PLACES SPOTS (OVER
LAND) SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING IS LEAST CONFIDENT
UP TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES. THESE ZONES WILL BE ON THE VERY
EDGE OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY OUT FROM
UNDER THE PROTECTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF MEANS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP LYING RIGHT THROUGH THESE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AM GROWING CONCERNED THAT THE
CURRENT POPS AFTER 20-21Z NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE ARE TOO LOW...AND
WILL LIKELY BE BUMPING THESE VALUES UP WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE (IF NOT BEFORE). ELSEWHERE...THE 20% POP IN THE GRIDS
AFTER 18-19Z SEEMS REASONABLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE
EXPECT COVERAGE OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE ON MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST...AT THE SAME TIME...THE VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORTING THE LOW IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/GA.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST? WITH WEAKENING SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR LIFT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE
EFFICIENTLY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
LESSEN...ALONG WITH THE SIZE OF THE SWATH OF BEST LIFT. THE WAY
ITS ALL SETTING UP...WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS REMAINING LIFT
ALOFT TO STAY WEST/NW OF A GOOD PORTION OF OUR ZONES...KEEPING THE
FORECAST MAINLY DRY. ONCE AGAIN THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE. A LOW
LEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWN BY ALL THE GUIDANCE WILL EXTEND
OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOW CENTER NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND REGION. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ADEQUATE UPGLIDE BETWEEN THE
295-315K SURFACES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST "SHOWER ACTIVITY" INTO OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WILL STILL ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAINFALL
STAYS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THAT THE SHOWERS THAT DO ARRIVE INTO
LEVY/CITRUS ARE GENERALLY NOT ON THE HEAVY SIDE. THE DEEP LAYER
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERNLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT. MOST SPOTS WILL STAY IN THE 70S FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AND STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE WEAKENING LEFTOVER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINING
ATMOSPHERIC PUSH AND LESSENING INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST TO
FINALLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED...THAT THE DEFINITION OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY THAT TIME COMPARED TO ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE. EACH GUIDANCE MEMBER HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING ITS TAKE ON THE SITUATION FOR TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS AND
SREF. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN ALL
THE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO ITS SOLUTION OF A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING STRONGER UPGLIDE WAA INTO THE NATURE
COAST. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-4 DURING
THE DAY...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 1-2" QPF AMOUNTS BEING
PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. WE DO NOT HAVE THE QPF BREAKDOWN FOR THE
ECMWF BETWEEN STABLE AND PARAMETERIZED PRECIP IN OUR SYSTEMS LIKE
WE DO FOR MANY OF THE NCEP MODELS...HOWEVER WOULD BE INTERESTING
TO SEE IF THE MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF QPF IS COMING FROM THE MODEL
PHYSICS ITSELF OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. IF IT WAS COMING
FROM THE STABLE SIDE OF THE PICTURE...THEN MIGHT BE MORE WILLING
TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINLY
STILL PRESENT...WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NATURE COAST...BUT FOR LIGHTER AMOUNTS...AND THEN
TAPER POPS DOWN THE FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ONE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE PENINSULA. THE TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR TUESDAY...BUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WILL HOLD THINGS IN THE 80S. IF MORE BREAKS OF SUN ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING TIMES OF PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STATIONS
APPROACHING 90.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE GUSTS WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVENING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN EXPANSION OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE COAST MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 72 86 73 / 20 20 40 50
FMY 88 70 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
GIF 86 69 87 71 / 20 10 30 30
SRQ 87 71 86 74 / 20 20 30 50
BKV 87 70 86 71 / 20 10 40 50
SPG 86 74 85 74 / 20 20 40 50

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

423 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CANADA TROF ANCHORED BY A DEEP MID LEVEL
LOW CENTERED JUST N OF HUDSON BAY. WITHIN THE TROF...110KT UPPER JET
EXTENDS FROM NE MN TO NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...CORRESPONDING FGEN IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS...AND SHORTWAVE HAVE SUPPORTED SHRA FROM NW WI E ACROSS UPPER
MI TODAY...THOUGH SHRA HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF
THE U.P. OTHERWISE...IT`S BEEN A CLOUDY DAY. HOWEVER...RECENTLY MID
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW
LEADING TO SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT THERE. TEMPS ARE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT ARE NEARING 50F ON THE KEWEENAW
AND HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S IN MENOMINEE COUNTY.

WITH FORCING THAT HAS GENERATED THE SHRA TODAY BREAKING DOWN THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHRA AS MODELS INDICATE.
HOWEVER...ONGOING WAA AHEAD OF TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAY
WORK TO GENERATE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ALONG THE CURRENT PCPN
GENERATION ZONE THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NE AS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY
LOOPS ACROSS NW WI TO AROUND KDLH. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...LINGERED SOME SCHC POPS W INTO PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER
THRU THE EVENING.

TROF MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT SHIFTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS
TUE. AHEAD OF THE TROF...MODELS SHOW BETTER FOCUS OF WAA SHIFTING TO
THE NW OF UPPER MI. END RESULT WILL BE A DRY DAY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STEADY RAIN WEDNESDAY THEN
COOLER/BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN A STRONG SFC HIGH
PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER TO
NE...AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY /REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICA/. WILL
BE STARTING OUT WITH A STRONG S-SE PUSH OF AIR ON 850MB WINDS OF 25-
40KTS OVERHEAD. THESE 850MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE 40KTS
CWA WIDE OVERNIGHT. THE CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONVERGE AND STRETCH FROM MANITOBA TO IL/IN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEADY RAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP TOTALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
TOTAL AROUND OR OVER 0.5IN.

THE SFC LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO NEAR 990MB EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS UPPER MI/N LAKE MI...AND AROUND 980MB ACROSS N OR NE LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSES...EXPECT STRONGER W-NW WINDS TO PUSH IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND
3C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 0 TO -5C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
CONSENSUS...WITH THE COLD AIR IS TO HAVE IT PUSH MAINLY INLAND OR S
OF THE CWA. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OR AMOUNTS OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW...AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE HANDLING OF THE 500MB LOW AS IT SINKS IN BEHIND
THE SFC LOW. STILL...IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY WITH GALES
LIKELY CENTRAL AND E OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST S WITH THE LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI
AND S WI AT 06Z THURSDAY. BY CONTRAST...THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE LOW OVER UPPER MI. WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THIS FALLS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
NOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASES AT THE TAIL END OF THE MOISTURE AS IT
DEPARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS AND COOLER AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS
AVERAGING -4 TO -5C WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW IF SFC TEMPS WERE
JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FOR HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE
NATION FRIDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR E FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS WE RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND NEARING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W AND CENTRAL CANADA. WILL BE HARD TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /WITH THE
BEST CHANCE MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE NEARBY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

AREA OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT KIWD/KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN...BUT
SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. OBS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY
SPORADIC MVFR CIGS WITH THE SHRA. AS WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT UPSLOPE
SE THIS AFTN AT KSAW...MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING AT THAT
TERMINAL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO FALL TOWARD IFR THIS EVENING.
WHILE WIND DIRECTION AT KIWD IS NOT ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR LWR
CIGS...PROXIMITY OF LWR CIGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR. KCMX WILL REMAIN N OF THE -SHRA/LOWER CLOUDS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KCMX LATER TONIGHT AS A LIGHT ESE WIND
MAY ADVECT MOISTURE/LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD THAT TERMINAL. WHILE
KCMX/KIWD WILL BE VFR TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...KSAW MAY HAVE MVFR
VIS IN FOG UNTIL MID MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT WILL START THE FCST PERIOD TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST
UP TOWARD 20KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE
UPPER LAKES WED...LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
WILL THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WED AFTN/NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO JAMES BAY THU. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE BY LATE TUE AFTN...
INCREASING FURTHER TO 20-30KT TUE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TUE
NIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TYPICAL FOR SE
FLOW. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS TUE NIGHT OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CARIBOU ISLAND/WHITEFISH POINT AREA. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH
IN THE VNCTY OF THE LOW/FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WED.
NW GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED THRU THU WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 40KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU NIGHT/FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

420 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

137 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.1

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

...RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER/BREEZY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

250 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

MANY QUESTIONS AS TO THE FINER DETAILS WHEN THE DAMMING BREAKS ON
WEDNESDAY. PARENT LOW MOVES ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY AS WELL...WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY MID AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST BY
SUNSET. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE DAY TO BE REPLACED BY PATCHY LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DRY SLOTTING IS DEPICTED ON
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...INTRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A FEW STORMS DURING THE DAY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED AMPLE SHEAR PROFILE.

INTIALLY A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
EXIST EARLY DUE TO RESIDUAL DAMMING. THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WARM
QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS
IN...PERHAPS REACHING 70 EVEN IN THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT REACH 35-40 KNOTS...SO ANY MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS TO 20 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR 30+ MPH IN CONVECTION. THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...AND POPS FALL OFF TO
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE LINGERING IN THE EAST WITH CLEARING UNDERWAY IN
THE WEST. MINS WILL BE MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...FROM 55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL EDGE UP A BIT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DESPITE
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE...MAINLY UPPER 60S. AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON
MONDAY. THE LATE DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE 18Z
VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AND A
MODESTLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IS IN THE TRIAD WHERE THE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN COLD-AIR DAMMING SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...AT
LEAST WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BY 13Z TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...AT
KRDU IT APPEARS LIKELY CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO HIGH IFR IN TERMS OF
CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING...WHEREAS PROBABILITIES OF IFR BECOME LESS
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY DURING THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE KFAY AND KRWI DOWN TO
1000FT CEILINGS BY 14Z...AND AMONG THOSE TWO SITES CONSIDER IT
SLIGHTLY MORE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH IFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AT KFAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
WEDNESDAY...THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PERSISTENT DRYING FINALLY TAKES PLACE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
KFAY LIKELY AMONG THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES TO RETURN TO
CONTINUOUS VFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE GOOD CLOCKWISE TURNING OF
THE WINDS ALOFT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BY 2000FT TO
NEAR 40KT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY...WHILE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE ALOFT TO NEAR THE SAME
VALUE...DIRECTION CHANGE...SOUTHERLY...SHOULD BE MUCH LESS. LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AND VEER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/26
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1255 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT TUESDAY INTO MID-DAY WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 AM MONDAY...

DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS 40-45 AND HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT OUT
OF TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/26
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

402 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH REMNANTS OF PATRICIA BRINGS RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TWEAKED
POPS SOME TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS USING HRRR AND WRFARW.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY TRIED TO ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE PRECIP
SHADOW SOME IN THE I79 CORRIDOR...GOING WITH POP/QPF MINIMUM
THERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FAR WESTERN CWA TO AT OR NEAR 100 PERCENT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A DEFORMATION BAND SLIDES NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT STARTS TO FEEL
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AS 850MB FLOW INCREASES OUT OF
THE E/SE TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STOUT BAROCLINIC LEAF READILY EVIDENT ON STLT TODAY OVER SE 1/4
OF THE CONUS. ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE CONFLUENCE ZONE WHERE THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM JETS MEET OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SERVED TO ENHANCE
THE EFFECT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...AND
BECOMES A RATHER FLAT WAVE BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE CWA TUE
NT...IN SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FAST APPROACHING FROM THE W EVEN AS IT FORMS OUT OF SEVERAL
SMALLER S/W TROUGHS.

THE ORIGINAL SFC FEATURE BECOMES WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE CWA TUE NT...BUT A TIGHT W TO E LOW LEVEL GRADIENT SPELLS A
CLASSIC RAIN SHADOW EFFECT ON STRONG SE FLOW. WITH THIS...AND MOST
OF THE FORCING OUTSIDE UPSLOPE GENERATED IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RAINFALL TUE NT INTO WED SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE...A SLOW
SOAKER WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OVER SIX HOUR PERIOD IN THE ERN
UPSLOPE AREA OF WV...AND SLIGHTLY LESS OVER THE WRN FRINGES...AND
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER SIX HOURS IN THE SHADOW AREA IN
BETWEEN.

MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS DO NOT MIX MUCH OF THE 70KTS SHOWN
AT H85 OFF THE NAM12 TO THE SFC. THE STRONG INVERSION CREATED BY
COOL ATLANTIC AIR FLOWING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A STRONG SFC HIGH
SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...BENEATH WARMER AIR FLOWING IN
ON SW MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL KEEP STRONG WIND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE
VERY HIGHEST RIDGES.

A NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN DIGS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...AS
THE FINAL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE THAT ESTABLISHES A L/W TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS COME THU. A SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY WED IN RESPONSE
TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PULLS QUICKLY NEWD...REACHING
JAMES BAY IN CENTRAL CANADA BY THU MORNING. THIS PULLS A STRONG
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED INTO WED NT...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THU. THIS RESULTS IN GOOD MIXING
THROUGH WED NT AND THU...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS TAKEN OUT
ON WED. THIS ALSO DRIES OUT THE WEATHER...AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ARE REALIZED ON THU.

THU EVENING FINDS THE L/W ALREADY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE NERN
STATES.

TEMPERATURES TAKE A NON DIURNAL ROLLER COASTER RIDE...STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING ON TUE NT...AND THEN NEARLY STEADY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU AS H85 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT
5C. USED MOSTLY TO NAM BASED GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE NEAR THE LOW END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP ON WED AND THE HIGH END ON THU WITH BETTER
MIXING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED THURSDAY NIGHT...TO BE
REPLACED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WX THRU
SATURDAY...THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
UNSETTLED. THE CULPRIT BEING AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW
CONUS AND INTERACTING WITH THE N STREAM. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
WITH AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
JUST HOW WET WET GET.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. DO NOTE THAT BKW CURRENT HAS MVFR CIGS
IN PLACE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL REMAIN AND ONLY HAVE IT IN
THE TAF FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 3500 FEET.
ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT AND AROUND EKN
TONIGHT. WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON QUICKLY CLOUDS AND FLOW INCREASE.
FOR NOW STAYED IN THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. RAIN
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO DID NOT GO WITH IFR AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT FORM AT EKN...OR COULD BE MORE
DENSE IF CLOUDS AND WINDS LAG BEHIND FORECAST. TIMING OF SHOWERS
MAY VARY.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IFR CIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

129 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT HEADED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT COPIOUS MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY FROM THE
DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW TO THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL RUN A BELOW NORMAL...REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. DO NOTE THAT BKW CURRENT HAS MVFR CIGS
IN PLACE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL REMAIN AND ONLY HAVE IT IN
THE TAF FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 3500 FEET.
ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT AND AROUND EKN
TONIGHT. WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON QUICKLY CLOUDS AND FLOW INCREASE.
FOR NOW STAYED IN THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY. RAIN
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO DID NOT GO WITH IFR AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT FORM AT EKN...OR COULD BE MORE
DENSE IF CLOUDS AND WINDS LAG BEHIND FORECAST. TIMING OF SHOWERS
MAY VARY.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IFR CIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

252 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

NO HIGHLIGHTS OR HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AWAY
FROM THE REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST...A DAMPENED TROUGH
IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID WEEK.

FOR TODAY...WINDY AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. WINDS WILL GUST TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES AS TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS. A NEAR REPEAT OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX HIGHS AND LESS CLOUD COVER GIVEN DRIER
VERTICAL PROFILES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

OUR HAZARD FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION. THE MAIN RISKS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION FOR OTHER
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

BY MID-WEEK...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK DRY FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE RE-ESTABLISHING OF
MOISTURE COMMENCES. A STRONG SIGNAL ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE SUITE OF
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES A POTENT MID-LVL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG SIDE BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL HELP INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL AID IN DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE
DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO NEAR 560 DM WHICH IS ABOUT 10DM DEEPER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE
WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND VS.
THE PAST EVENT WHERE PWATS WERE UPWARDS OF 2.1-2.3" VS. THE
PROGGED 1.8-1.9` (BUT STILL GOOD). THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR HEAVY RAIN AS SET-UP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCED. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS A POSSIBLE
DRYLINE SURGE OCCURS OR IF IT WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED EVENT LATE
FRIDAY INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY. LOOKING AT PROGGED CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS AND SOUNDINGS...HEALTHY PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN
PLACE THAT COULD SUGGEST ORGANIZATION FOR A BROKEN QLCS ALONG A
POSSIBLE DRYLINE SURGE SATURDAY MORNING TO MID-DAY. ANY
ORGANIZATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD AID IN STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLY OTHER HAZARDS AS A 90-100 KT JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SET-UP FOR OVERALL RAIN ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD POSSIBILITIES.

THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BECOMES MURKY ON SUNDAY
WITH EC SLOWER THAN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS. THE UKMET AND GEM FAVOR A
SLOWER PATTERN WITH RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 82 60 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 81 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 84 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 51 80 57 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 84 58 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 52 81 57 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 84 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 82 57 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 82 58 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 85 60 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 85 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1233 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. VCT IS THE ONLY SITE DEVIATING FROM THIS AS
SOME CLOUDS COULD MOVE BACK IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL SPINNING
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THINK VCT SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DESPITE ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THEY COULD
HOWEVER GET A BIT OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
STICKING WITH JUST MVFR VISBY FOR NOW. SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
MID-MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER STRATUS DECK
TO THE NORTH OF VCT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
LATER TODAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE VCT AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR
SKIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT NOT
LIKE YESTERDAY. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY 00Z TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 58 84 62 85 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 56 82 59 84 61 / 0 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 55 87 62 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 55 86 59 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 62 81 66 82 68 / 0 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 53 85 59 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 55 86 60 88 65 / 0 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 63 81 67 82 70 / 0 10 0 0 0

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

PZ/83...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

334 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL
DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE
A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...SO IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME LAST MINUTE SURFACE
HEATING. SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID TO LATE EVE
WITH NVA AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER AT 21Z...ADVANCING VERY QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH INCREASING H7-H3
MOISTURE...ALLOWING PCPN TO RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE 115-125
KT H25 JET PUSHES ALONG THE WY/CO STATE LINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW
A LATE AFTERNOON COLD FROPA PUSHING H7 TEMPS DOWN TO -2 C TO -4 C BY
00Z WED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THERMAL PROFILES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
TO YIELD A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT EXPECT WARM TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...GIVEN
STRONG LLVL CAA PROMOTING SUFFICIENT MIXING TO TAP INTO STRONGER LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 35 KTS PER NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH HIGH WINDS AS GRADIENTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE EYEBROWS. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUE NIGHT IN THE POST-FROPA AIR MASS IF WINDS CAN DIMINISH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT BREEZY WITH DOWNSLOPE 25 TO 35
MPH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE
MODELS LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
PACKAGE WILL ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS OUT EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DON`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME SPOTS ABOVE 9000 FT
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES AGAIN. IN TYPICAL EL-NINO FASHION...THE LATE
WEEK UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPLITTING...SO THINK THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL LIKELY SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH. UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS IS STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MESSY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EAST OUT OF THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BY SUNDAY...SO WE ADDED SOME
SMALL POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER
CEILINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE CLEARING-LINE
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF RAWLINS
AND SHOULD BE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HRRR DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE CURRENT RAIN ACTIVITY IS (EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA) AND DEPICTS MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF OUR REGION HERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING VFR EXPECTED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROMOTE NON-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1140 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR NOON AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

A FEW MINOR UPDATES ARE NECESSARY THIS MORNING. RECENT TRENDS IN
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. IN FACT...VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN OCCURRING ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WYO TO CHADRON NEB. MODELS ARE
NOT DOING VERY WELL HERE...WITH THE 12Z NAM STILL FAILING TO SHOW
MUCH OF ANYTHING OVER THOSE AREAS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. ADJUSTED POPS
AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED FORECAST
HIGHS AS MANY AREAS ARE STILL IN THE MID 40S...LOW/MID 60S SEEM
QUITE UNLIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS GIVEN WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AND LIGHT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS NOT CONDUCIVE TO WARMING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

TODAY...THE MODELS ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...PAINTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION NOW BREAKING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB
LAYERS WILL BE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR
COUNTIES...WITH DOWNWARD MOTION AND QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DESCENT
NOTED IN THE AFTERNOON...LIMITING SHOWER COVERAGE. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS TODAY.

TONIGHT...NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVES INTO
WESTERN WYOMING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB
QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC LIFT. FORTUNATELY...LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL BE SCANT...THUS ONLY ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS PROVIDING
A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT... NO PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY...SLOW MOVING AND RATHER POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WITH A QUITE IMPRESSIVE 100 KNOT 300 MB
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...DYNAMICS AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING...EXPECTING NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER CONVERSE AND WESTERN NIOBRARA
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
DEEPER MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO
ALLIANCE LINE...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FURTHER
SOUTH. QUITE WINDY AND BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
NORTHWEST WINDS AND PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS. WE MAY
NEED TO HOIST WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. HAVE COMPROMISED WITH NAM AND GFS FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CEASING IN THE EVENING AND LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANES AND THE DYNAMICS DROP OFF. DECENT LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...THOUGH KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO POTENTIALS BASED ON THE COLD AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETARD WARMING TREND...THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL FEEL WARMER DUE TO LESS WIND AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL
BREEZY TO WINDY THOUGH BASED ON PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

00Z MODELS DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOWER 48. VIGOROUS UPPER MIDWEST LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMTN WEST. THE
ECMWF FORMS A CUTOFF LOW OVER AZ BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS
CLOSING THE LOW OVER NM 24 HOURS LATER. SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND LEESIDE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS 50S SATURDAY AND
LOW-MID 60S SUNDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S).

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER
CEILINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE CLEARING-LINE
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOUISTURE MOVING EAST OF RAWLINS
AND SHOULD BE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HRRR DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE CURRENT RAIN ACTIVITY IS (EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA) AND DEPICTS MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF OUR REGION HERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING VFR EXPECTED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2015

NO ISSUES OR CONCERNS BASED ON PROJECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITIES.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN