Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/25/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
951 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .UPDATE... 816 PM CDT MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO... WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... 228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION AND COVERAGE IS LOW. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS && .LONG TERM... 237 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB- TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * MVFR CIGS INTO MID EVENING IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND CONDITIONS GOING VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERLY BY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH-ISH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING ELEMENTS IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY. THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR. IZZI && .MARINE... 237 PM CDT THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
816 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .UPDATE... 816 PM CDT MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO... WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... 228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION AND COVERAGE IS LOW. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS && .LONG TERM... 237 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB- TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * MVFR CIGS INTO MID EVENING IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND CONDITIONS GOING VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERLY BY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH-ISH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING ELEMENTS IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY. THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR. IZZI && .MARINE... 237 PM CDT THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
605 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... 228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION AND COVERAGE IS LOW. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS && .LONG TERM... 237 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB- TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURICANE PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * MVFR CIGS INTO MID EVENING IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND CONDITIONS GOING VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERLY BY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH-ISH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING ELEMENTS IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY. THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR. IZZI && .MARINE... 237 PM CDT THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY ELSEWHERE. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING. TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA. THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY. MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS...BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE HOLDING THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH...AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CAN HOLD TRUE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS/ ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DID MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IS DECREASING THE OVERALL SPEEDS IN THE AVERAGED SOLUTION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 232100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARRIVING TONIGHT. RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE SITES TONIGHT ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR TO THE SITES STARTING AFTER 3Z IN THE WEST AND AROUND 6Z AT KIND AND KBMG AND LASTING AT EACH SITE FOR AROUND 4-6 HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-13 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IFR CEILINGS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MORNING BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY ELSEWHERE. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AT BEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING. TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA. THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY. LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY. MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS...BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE HOLDING THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH...AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CAN HOLD TRUE SHOULD SEE HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS/ ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DID MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IS DECREASING THE OVERALL SPEEDS IN THE AVERAGED SOLUTION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARRIVING TONIGHT. RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE SITES TONIGHT ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR TO THE SITES STARTING AFTER 3Z IN THE WEST AND AROUND 6Z AT KIND AND KBMG AND LASTING AT EACH SITE FOR AROUND 4-6 HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-13 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IFR CEILINGS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MORNING BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA AFTER THIS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TO THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NE. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FIRING THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS WITH THE RAIN FALLING AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE OF THIS AFD. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH THIS MAY MOVE THE WARM FRONT NORTH SLIGHTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING. THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS OUT TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA. HIRES CAMS...INCLUDING CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. STILL DECIDED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WARM FRONT MOVEMENT AND STORMS OUT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A STRONG STORM IF THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT PULL NORTH AND WE HAVE BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM WILL ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR BE WARMING AS THE WARM SECTOR ENTRENCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IF THE WARM LIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND COOLER AIR. MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL STILL BE CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A GORGEOUS FALL SATURDAY. THE NAM DOES HAVE WRAPAROUND PRECIP SAT AM....I DID NOT BUY THIS AS THE NAM CURRENTLY DOES NOT HANDLE THE CURRENT PRECIP WELL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 COOLER WITH MOSTLY NEAR SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN EVENT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXACT TIMING. THE PHASING OF MOISTURE...SOME FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS HEAVIER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURE MANY DAYS WITH FAIR SKIES MINS MAY NEED LOWERING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BASED ON PERSISTENCE THE PAST FEW TO SEVERAL WEEKS. OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR WITH MOISTURE A BIT OVERDONE WITH CURRENT SYSTEM. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND CLOSEST SOLUTIONS UPSTREAM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND OF HI-RES ECMWF/UKMET MIX WITH GFS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TYPICAL COOL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65 AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS SEEING MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 4S0 AS CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POOR CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE SUGGESTED AS PHASING OF ENERGY WITH UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER KNOWN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCAL OFFICE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WHAT HI-RES ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORTS WITH IS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF .25 TO 75 INCHES WITH 1 PLUS INCHES VERY POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO DERIVED FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" STREAMING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVER UPPER MIDWEST. HI/LO TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY. FRIDAY...MUCH COLDER AND BREEZY TO WINDY ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS AND LOWS PROBABLY BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AT LEAST 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO HIGH. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AM AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 AVIATION FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS RATHER PESSIMISTIC. EXPECT RA...SOMETIMES MODERATE TO LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT EACH TAF SITE IN THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS. ONCE THIS CLEARS...IFR AND LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WENT TO LOW END IFR CIGS INSTEAD OF LIFR BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIFE OCCURRING. AFTER THIS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH NW WINDS. FROPA COULD HAVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT RIGHT NOW I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. FUTURE TAF AMENDMENTS FOR FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THIS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIBBS SHORT TERM...GIBBS LONG TERM...NICHOLS AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY BEFORE BEING CAPTURED BY THE WESTERLY AND TAKEN EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER IOWA THIS MORNING FROM A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION LEADING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL. WILL SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY SLOT. THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ENDING THE HEAVIER PCPN THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO SEE DEFORMATION AREA MOVE BACK INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A CARROLL TO ALGONA LINE. THE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE RAPID OVERSPREADING OF THE AREA FROM THE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIPITATION TREND FOR BEGINNING OF EXTENDED...AND AGAIN FOR MID WEEK. FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN CWA ALONG BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION...AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY ATTM. AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...FORCING WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND SYSTEM...THOUGH WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL. PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE ACROSS PACNW AND PUSH EAST. HOWEVER...GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF THE OUTLIER A BIT FASTER AND BRINGING SURFACE LOW NORTH FROM GULF REGION...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP SYSTEM SOUTH OF IOWA. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO FAVOR ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND KEEPS SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH STILL ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO IOWA. HAVE CONTINUED THEREFORE TO TREND AWAY FROM GFS TOWARDS ECMWF WITH SYSTEM...THEREFORE KEEPING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM PUSHES EAST FOR END OF PERIOD WITH ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING IN BEHIND. && .AVIATION...23/06Z ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FOG/MIST/RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO THE INCOMING RAIN WILL BE FROM 15-22Z FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND AHEAD OF THE FROPA. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COGIL LONG TERM...AWB AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS WITH ATTENTION ON WIDESPREAD ARC OF VARIED CONVECTION FROM OK THROUGH KS INTO CO/NE BORDER. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY KINEMATICS AT THE MOMENT WITH NOTED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN CO UPPER LOW AND SUB- TROPICAL STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST. LOBE OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NM/TX/CO/KS PV ANOMALY AND SHORT WAVE IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING. THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN PUSH NORTH. THERMODYNAMIC FORCING CONTRIBUTION WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT RATHER THAN BAROCLINICITY. THIS IS REALIZED BY CURRENT OK THETA-E ADVECTION MAX REACHING AT LEAST IA/MO BORDER BY 12Z. HAVE BROUGHT POPS THROUGH EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND MAINLY TO BLEND INTO NEIGHBORS AS 300K/305K PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW THROUGH THAT TIME...AND MOST HI RES MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING JUST A TOUCH OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMP WISE...RAW MODELS SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE THE WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 SIMILAR CONCERNS TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT 36 HOURS. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTEGRATED INTO THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. THOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE INSTABILITY LESSENS TOWARD MIDDAY ACROSS THE WEST WHILE CONTINUING EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON...DAY TIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. HAVE REINTRODUCED A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...WITH SOME RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF LESSENING OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE INSOLATION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TOWARD NORMALS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MORE COMMON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS LOWS WILL FALL BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS WELL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. AFTER A TRANQUIL WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AGAIN. OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FESTER BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO. THE 00Z PACKAGES HAVE TRENDED TO DISCOUNT THE PHASING OF THE THREE WAVES IN QUESTION WHILE THE 12Z PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY THE EURO...HAS CONTINUED TO PHASE THE SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND GULF SYSTEM INTO A STRONG FALL CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. TODAYS 12Z RUN IS NO EXCEPTION. GENERALLY...MODEL BLENDS/PREVIOUS PACKAGES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER WITH 50S AND POSSIBLE 40S FOR HIGHS BY THURSDAY AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO 40S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL OPT TO NOT DELVE INTO THE DETAILS OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. IN EITHER CASE WITH THE GFS OR EURO SOLUTIONS...THE COLDER TEMPS/INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART BY DAY7/DAY8 AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. && .AVIATION...23/06Z ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FOG/MIST/RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO THE INCOMING RAIN WILL BE FROM 15-22Z FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND AHEAD OF THE FROPA. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
320 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE3 OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS AND SKY COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING. BL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT LOWER TD VALUES IN THE 30S. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. I DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FURTHER EAST BASED ON CURRENT TD/WIND FORECAST. THESE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN AS WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...SO DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS TODAY...THOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. I WOULD EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF INCREASING THEN DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES ON THE WEST COAST AROUND 00Z MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY MORNING A THICK VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/GEM A BIT FASTER (COMPARED TO ECMWF) BRINGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW FAST CLEARING DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS/GEM MODELS. FOR TUESDAY UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS ITS PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BUT BEFORE THAT POSSIBLY DEAL WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S WEST TO AROUND 40 FAR EAST. WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY EAST IN THE MORNING WITH A RAPID CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA SO HAVE REMOVED PREVIOUS PRECIP MENTION. NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY QUICKLY BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND FREEZE HILITES ARE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...GFS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLES BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...QUITE DIFFERENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODELS WHICH HAD AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE ECMWF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE WITH THAT THOUGHT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CURRENTLY THINKING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE THINGS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROCEDURE LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH ADVERTISES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC. ECWMF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY...FAR DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WILL COME THE NEED TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN THE LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE UPPER AND SFC PATTERNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2500-2800 KFT (MVFR) HAS DEVELOPED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK LATE THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED BY GUIDANCE VERY WELL...THOUGH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT LEAST SHOWS A SIGNAL THAT ROUGHLY MATCHES CURRENT EXTENT ON SATELLITE. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THIS LAYER LIFTING TO ABOVE 3000 KFT AND THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. I COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT KMCK UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON UPSTREAM EXTENT ON SATELLITE/OBS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING/TRENDS ON SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AND 30-35KT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE3 OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS AND SKY COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING. BL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT LOWER TD VALUES IN THE 30S. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. I DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FURTHER EAST BASED ON CURRENT TD/WIND FORECAST. THESE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN AS WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...SO DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS TODAY...THOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. I WOULD EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. WITH DRY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO CLOUDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WILL BE A VERY NICE FALL DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST FROST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS FAR AS DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT BUT THE DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEK`S LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS PROVIDED THESE PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT IS TOUGH TO TALK WITH CONFIDENCE ON WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. INSTEAD OF A MORNING PASSAGE TUESDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED FOR TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT... PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT ANY WINTRY MENTION IS NOT CURRENTLY WORTH INSERTING INTO THE FORECAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS NO LONGER APPEAR RIPE FOR A FREEZE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY MORNING IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR OBSERVING WIDESPREAD FROST AND...FOR SOME LOCATIONS...A HARD FREEZE. MAINTAIN THOUGHT THAT TWO METER TEMPERATURE AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT CAPTURING THESE POTENTIAL COLD CONDITIONS BUT THE GUIDANCE DID DROP FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT BUT DUE TO THE INCONSISTENT NATURE OF GUIDANCE RECENTLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN MENTIONING ANY TIMING OR AMOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2500-2800 KFT (MVFR) HAS DEVELOPED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK LATE THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED BY GUIDANCE VERY WELL...THOUGH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT LEAST SHOWS A SIGNAL THAT ROUGHLY MATCHES CURRENT EXTENT ON SATELLITE. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THIS LAYER LIFTING TO ABOVE 3000 KFT AND THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. I COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT KMCK UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON UPSTREAM EXTENT ON SATELLITE/OBS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING/TRENDS ON SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AND 30-35KT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JTL/RRH AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER THETA-E LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW MUCAPE FIELDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY EVERYWHERE...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE BTWN H85 AND H7. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEK`S LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS PROVIDED THESE PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT IS TOUGH TO TALK WITH CONFIDENCE ON WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. INSTEAD OF A MORNING PASSAGE TUESDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED FOR TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT... PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT ANY WINTRY MENTION IS NOT CURRENTLY WORTH INSERTING INTO THE FORECAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS NO LONGER APPEAR RIPE FOR A FREEZE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY MORNING IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR OBSERVING WIDESPREAD FROST AND...FOR SOME LOCATIONS...A HARD FREEZE. MAINTAIN THOUGHT THAT TWO METER TEMPERATURE AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT CAPTURING THESE POTENTIAL COLD CONDITIONS BUT THE GUIDANCE DID DROP FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT BUT DUE TO THE INCONSISTENT NATURE OF GUIDANCE RECENTLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN MENTIONING ANY TIMING OR AMOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE KS AND CO BORDER. WHILE PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...THINK THE UPSTREAM LOWER TDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL FOG DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS AT KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-027-041. CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER THETA-E LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW MUCAPE FIELDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY EVERYWHERE...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE BTWN H85 AND H7. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON SATURDAY LOTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SUNSET. THESE HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S. MONDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY AS A 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/FRONT. 850-500MB LAYER RATHER DRY AND POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL IT WOULD BE AROUND/BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT SKY COVER FORECAST WITH THE GFS THE DRIER MODEL...ECMWF THE WETTEST/MORE MOIST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WEDNESDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SFC HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND FOCUS WILL BE ON LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL AIM FOR LOW TO MID 30S WITH A CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE KS AND CO BORDER. WHILE PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...THINK THE UPSTREAM LOWER TDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL FOG DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS AT KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY AND SEASONAL FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WHILE HOURLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOO DRY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...TIGHTENING UP SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. HYDROLAPSE VIA LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO ESCAPE FOR SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE BET FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER THEN THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AND INCREASING HOURLY DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY FRIDAY WITH INSOLATION AND DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR...TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES FROM EAST TO WEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...BUT PRECIP PROBS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...CUMULATING IN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES BY EVE. MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRECIP TIMING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY TEMPS WERE THUS FORECAST NEAR THE AVERAGES GIVEN LINGERING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECTATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARRED BY ONLY LCL MVFR VSBY NR PORTS SOUTH OF PIT LATE THIS EVE AS A CDFNT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR SKY/VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A SATURDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1055 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE REGION...AS IS ALL WIDESPREAD SIGNFICANT RAINFALL. POST-SYSTEM CAA JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A TOUCH OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN AN OTHERWISE RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. JUST ENOUGH LAKE SUPPORT TO KICK OFF SOME DRIZZLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD COME TO AND END AS DRYING INCREASES (CLEAR SKIES ALREADY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN). CLOUD TRENDS A TOUGHER CALL. PER UPSTREAM TRENDS/SATELLITE DATA...GOTTA BELIEVE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BE REALIZED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AND NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY FOR A TIME BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS REACHED ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NW LWR MICHIGAN. MAIN COLD FRONT IS HOT ON ITS HEELS... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GREEN BAY INTO S CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED NE OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IS MOVING THRU N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. RAP13 SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL THIS LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THIS LINE BEFORE IT CLEARS NE LWR MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS. THEREAFTER...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO NRN MICHIGAN TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES. DELTA T`S INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT LAKE-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FOR LOCATIONS TARGETED BY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU AROUND 09Z. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY OVERCOMING ANY LAKE PRECIP BY THIS TIME...AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER 09Z. BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL NOT BE WITHOUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE...JUXTAPOSED WITH RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE OF PWAT VALUES OF ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH...WILL PRODUCE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF M- 72 AS OF RIGHT NOW. EXPECT DECREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY...BUT THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKING IT/S WAY NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WILL BEGIN VEERING TO EASTERLY TUESDAY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AT UPPER LVLS...500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL LIFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WED BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC THURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE RAIN ACRS NRN MI WEDNESDAY...MIXING WITH SNOW THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LAST BAND OF DEFORMATION SHOWERS RAPIDLY PIVOTING EAST IN THE PROCESS. STILL PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE TANKS LATER TONIGHT AS JUST COLD ENOUGH AIR TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MITIGATED BY AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. REALLY DO BELIEVE THIS DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT...BRINGING A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OF SCT CIGS. SECONDARY MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT POCKET OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CROSSES THE REGION LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH TEND TO THINK DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CIGS IN VFR RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR KPLN/KAPN...BUT CONFIDENCE SIMPLY MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 GALE FORCE WINDS AND RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MICHIGAN. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ UPDATE...MSB NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...TJL LONG TERM...SWR AVIATION...MSB MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS REACHED ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NW LWR MICHIGAN. MAIN COLD FRONT IS HOT ON ITS HEELS... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GREEN BAY INTO S CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED NE OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IS MOVING THRU N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. RAP13 SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL THIS LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THIS LINE BEFORE IT CLEARS NE LWR MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS. THEREAFTER...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO NRN MICHIGAN TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES. DELTA T`S INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT LAKE-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FOR LOCATIONS TARGETED BY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU AROUND 09Z. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY OVERCOMING ANY LAKE PRECIP BY THIS TIME...AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER 09Z. BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL NOT BE WITHOUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE...JUXTAPOSED WITH RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE OF PWAT VALUES OF ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH...WILL PRODUCE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF M- 72 AS OF RIGHT NOW. EXPECT DECREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY...BUT THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKING IT/S WAY NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WILL BEGIN VEERING TO EASTERLY TUESDAY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 AT UPPER LVLS...500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WILL LIFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WED BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC THURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE RAIN ACRS NRN MI WEDNESDAY...MIXING WITH SNOW THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LAST BAND OF DEFORMATION SHOWERS RAPIDLY PIVOTING EAST IN THE PROCESS. STILL PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE TANKS LATER TONIGHT AS JUST COLD ENOUGH AIR TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MITIGATED BY AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. REALLY DO BELIEVE THIS DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT...BRINGING A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OF SCT CIGS. SECONDARY MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT POCKET OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CROSSES THE REGION LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH TEND TO THINK DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CIGS IN VFR RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR KPLN/KAPN...BUT CONFIDENCE SIMPLY MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 GALE FORCE WINDS AND RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MICHIGAN. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ346. LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...TJL LONG TERM...SWR AVIATION...MSB MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
628 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF OUR FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT IS LOW DUE MAINLY TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ATTM OFF TO OUR WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR AN ISOLATED STORM MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA JUST PRIOR TO FROPA... BUT GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WILL BE EAST/SE OF OUR FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. FAIR WX WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH WOULD GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND MAYBE MORE OF RAIN. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE. THE FIRST IS ON MONDAY WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND CIGS LOWER. SCATTEERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OUR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO 30 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAURENS SHORT TERM...LAURENS LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...LAURENS HYDROLOGY...JAM MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF OUR FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT IS LOW DUE MAINLY TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ATTM OFF TO OUR WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR AN ISOLATED STORM MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA JUST PRIOR TO FROPA... BUT GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WILL BE EAST/SE OF OUR FCST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. FAIR WX WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH WOULD GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND MAYBE MORE OF RAIN. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE. THE FIRST IS ON MONDAY WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWN TO MVR AND IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN BY 06Z. A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY 18Z. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO 30 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAURENS SHORT TERM...LAURENS LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...JAM MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION/HYDRO .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN IN MO...TRACKING NORTHEAST. BASED ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE RAIN WOULD MOVE INTO MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT IS BATTLING A DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS MOST MODELS KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT DRY FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THE HIGH RES EURO WOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING IN BEFORE 00Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN...NOT MUCH IS THERE. HOWEVER ALL MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS ARRIVING. EVEN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS TO ME THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPANDING AS THEY MOVE IN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY 12Z SAT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOME INSTABILITY PERSISTS. THUS WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 EARLY ON...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET...BUT THEN MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS A GOOD BET TOWARD MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE WNW WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT COOL AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS TX. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE BRINGING IT NORTH INTO MI. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SOUTHERLY STREAM PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY AND BRINGING A DECENT AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TOWARD MICHIGAN BY WED. WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION THIS COULD BE A VERY WET SYSTEM FOR SW LOWER. ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR WED AS WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER THE CHILLY START TO THE WEEK READINGS WILL MODERATE INTO MID WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND NW FLOW RETURNS. EVEN SO...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWN TO MVR AND IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN BY 06Z. A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY 18Z. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE WIND WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATER TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER OVER TIME EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP. WILL BE GOING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND START IT UP 00Z SAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WIND TODAY AS VALUES OVER 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...JAM MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM OF COURSE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WAS POSITIONED IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...REACHING WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO LESS THAN 1K FEET AS THIS LOW APPROACHES...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CLOSE VICINITY TO THE FRONT /AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/. THE FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN MN AROUND 10PM...THE TWIN CITIES AROUND 2AM...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND 4AM. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE MARKEDLY IN SPEEDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BASICALLY END BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...AND THE LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING IN WESTERN MN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...MID DAY FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND THE AFTERNOON FOR THE GREATER EAU CLAIRE AREA. WITH THIS SETUP...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE MORNING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM IN TO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN OF TDA INTO TNGT AS A PAIR OF HIGH PRES AREAS... SEPARATED BY A WEAK CDFNT...WILL BREEZE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HIGH PRES AREA WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS ON ITS WAY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS WITH THE SECOND CENTERED OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA ON ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEAK CDFNT IN BETWEEN MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY EVEN A MIX OF -RA/-SN...TO W-CENTRAL WI SUN NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN TO BRING IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY FROM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE LWR-MID 50S WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE LWR-MID 30S. TUE THROUGH FRI...A SHARP UPR LVL TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE COMING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MON-TUE...DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS TROF WILL ALLOW A LOW PRES SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BRING IT INTO THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS IN THE LATE TUE THRU LATE WED. IN ADDITION...MODELS DEPICT A CLOSED-OFF UPR LVL LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROF WHICH WILL HELP WITH PRECIP GENERATION ACRS THE REGION SO A FAIRLY DAMP TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. NOT LOOKING FOR AN OVERABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT MORE OF THE TYPICAL MID-FALL COOL/DAMP/SHOWERY TYPE OF WX. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME -RA/-SN MIXTURE IN CENTRAL MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI AROUND SUNRISE EARLY WED MRNG BUT OTHERWISE THE PRECIP WILL COME AS -RA. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THEN A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BOTH AS THE SFC AND ALOFT LOOKS TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGHS DIP INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE TUE-WED SYSTEM THEN RECOVER TO THE 50S BY FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 STEADY STREAM OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WESTERN MN HAS SEEN MOST OF THIS BATCH OF RAIN COME TO AN END...BUT WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AS IT DRAWS NEAR...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...JUST A MATTER OF TIMING THESE CONDITIONS IN...WHICH FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN BASED ON THE HRRR CONSISTENCY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE MARKEDLY WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAU CLAIRE. KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE AIRPORT BY 6PM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND UPDATE IF THIS TIME CHANGES AT ALL. IN TERMS OF THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...SO EXPECT A TURN FROM SE TO NW TO OCCUR QUICKLY AROUND 07-08Z. ONCE THE WIND TURNS NW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTINESS. CEILINGS FINALLY BREAK UP MID DAY TOMORROW...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KTS. MON...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 INTERESTING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ARCHING BASICALLY SOUTH/WEST OF I-94/35 OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AT FIRST GLANCE...ONE MAY THINK THAT THE PRECIP IS OVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE. THE DRYSLOT IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS MERELY A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. IT IS NOT A RESULT OF THE CYCLONE OCCLUDING...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND MOISTURE PROFILES THAT LEAN WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND BRING RAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ACTUAL PRECIP IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN THIS APPARENT DRYSLOT REGION. SPC MESOANALYSIS IDENTIFIES A LARGE AREA OF H850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF BANDED PRECIP LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE A NORTHWARD AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHEAST BEFORE GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...SO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THAT AREA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHERWISE UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH BRIEF RIDGING AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK GIVING WAY TO A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS AFTER THE WEEKEND... BUT IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER ALL ON THE BIG PICTURE... SO A CONSENSUS APPROACH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE A BIT OF LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST... BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO ROBUST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE HELPING TO DEVELOP THAT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY... WITH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN OVER THE AREA. WE COULD WIND UP BEING SPLIT BY PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH... AS THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS AND A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 STEADY STREAM OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WESTERN MN HAS SEEN MOST OF THIS BATCH OF RAIN COME TO AN END...BUT WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AS IT DRAWS NEAR...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...JUST A MATTER OF TIMING THESE CONDITIONS IN...WHICH FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN BASED ON THE HRRR CONSISTENCY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE MARKEDLY WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAU CLAIRE. KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE AIRPORT BY 6PM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND UPDATE IF THIS TIME CHANGES AT ALL. IN TERMS OF THE WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...SO EXPECT A TURN FROM SE TO NW TO OCCUR QUICKLY AROUND 07-08Z. ONCE THE WIND TURNS NW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTINESS. CEILINGS FINALLY BREAK UP MID DAY TOMORROW...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KTS. MON...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPD SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM... AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2015 Showers were moving northeastward into portions of central and southeast MO early this morning. This activity was associated with temperature and moisture advection on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly low level jet ahead of an approaching upper level trough, low over the northern Plains. This precipitation will spread northeastward through most of the forecast area during the morning hours. Will get additional development this afternoon as southwest flow shortwaves move through the area ahead of the upper level trough and initiate convection within deep moisture over the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday due to the cloud cover and precipitation, but still above normal with southerly low level flow. GKS .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2015 Additional, mainly scattered convection is expected tonight and Saturday as a cold front moves slowly southeastward through our forecast area late tonight and Saturday as the upper level trough weakens as it moves northeastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region. The greatest threat for convection on Saturday will be across southeast MO and southwest IL, from STL south and east. Most of the precipitation will shift south- southeast of our forecast area by Saturday night as a surface ridge builds southeastward into our area with low level cold air advection and drying. Temperatures will be cooler Saturday night, albeit near normal for late October. The next threat for rain may begin as early as Monday night as the GFS model spreads precipitation northward into our area north of a tropical low coming up from TX and the Gulf Coast region. The ECMWF model keeps this low and its associated precipitation south of the forecast area, but does bring rain back into the area by Tuesday night as a deep upper level trough approaches along with its associated cold front. The GFS model also has a deepening upper level trough, low which will bring potentially significant and widespread rainfall amounts to our area through at least Wednesday followed by colder conditions for the end of the extended forecast. GKS && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015 Large rain area stretching from west central MO into ne TX will continue to work its way northeast overnight and into Friday morning. Extrapolation of regional radar imagery suggests HRRR is doing a very good job with the eastern edge of the precip, so have used this to tweak onset of showers. Both HRRR as well as the new 00z 4km WRF suggest that this band of showers will work across the region on Friday, with the more persistent rainfall diminishing over mid MO by midday and over STL area by early afternoon. Still not seeing a huge area of IFR to our south/southwest, but latest 00z MOS guidance of both NAM and GFS continue to strongly lean towards IFR cigs several hours after the onset of the precip, so have given the forecasts a nod towards this trend where the precip is expected to be the heaviest...KCOU and STL Metro locations. Specifics for KSTL: Expect showers to move into the area during the predawn hours, with the steadier and heavier precip after daybreak causing a lowering of both cigs into the IFR range and vsbys into the MVFR range in the 14-16z time frame. Do expect an improvement in conditions by mid afternoon as the bulk of the precip sweeps east of the area. Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1200 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015 Frontal boundary remains stalled along I-70 corridor this afternoon. However, still expect it to slowly lift back north as a warm front this evening before upper level trof/main system begins to slide east towards forecast area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be on the increase with the activity moving into central MO after midnight and towards STL metro area around daybreak. As for temperatures, to remain mild for this time of year with lows only in the mid 50s to around 60. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015 Precipitation will be on the increase Friday morning as surface low begins to lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes, dragging a decent cold front across the region. Showers and some thunderstorms expected through Friday night before tapering off by Saturday evening. With cloud cover and precipitation, highs on Friday will only be in the upper 60s far north to the upper 70s far east. Colder air to filter in for the weekend with highs in the low 60s to low 70s Saturday and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday, with overnight lows in the 40s, as surface ridge builds in. Then by Monday, surface ridge begins to move off as next weather system approaches region. Temperatures to remain near normal through Tuesday. Next chance for rain will be late Monday night through Wednesday as system to our south lifts northeastward towards region. Behind this system, will see much colder air with highs only in the mid to upper 50s by next Thursday. Byrd && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015 Large rain area stretching from west central MO into ne TX will continue to work its way northeast overnight and into Friday morning. Extrapolation of regional radar imagery suggests HRRR is doing a very good job with the eastern edge of the precip, so have used this to tweak onset of showers. Both HRRR as well as the new 00z 4km WRF suggest that this band of showers will work across the region on Friday, with the more persistent rainfall diminishing over mid MO by midday and over STL area by early afternoon. Still not seeing a huge area of IFR to our south/southwest, but latest 00z MOS guidance of both NAM and GFS continue to strongly lean towards IFR cigs several hours after the onset of the precip, so have given the forecasts a nod towards this trend where the precip is expected to be the heaviest...KCOU and STL Metro locations. Specifics for KSTL: Expect showers to move into the area during the predawn hours, with the steadier and heavier precip after daybreak causing a lowering of both cigs into the IFR range and vsbys into the MVFR range in the 14-16z time frame. Do expect an improvement in conditions by mid afternoon as the bulk of the precip sweeps east of the area. Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .UPDATE... A FEW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED OVER NW MT THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTING N MT...WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE VORTICITY AND JET ENERGY WILL PUSH E OVERNIGHT THROUGH N MT WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WERE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE 20S...AT 02Z. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWED LIGHT QPF OVER THE NW ZONES AND QPF NEAR THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. THE POPS OVER THE HIGH NW TERRAIN LOOKED GOOD. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS OVER THE FAR NE AROUND KBHK WILL MOISTEN UP AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED THE COLUMN MOISTENING UP WITH TIME...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO THE KBHK AREA AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN CURRENT READINGS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S. PACIFIC ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON SUN WITH AN ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. INCREASING PACIFIC ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN THROUGH TUE... A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A GOOD MOISTURE PLUME IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WE BECOME INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MT ON MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY FOR PLACES LIKE MILES CITY AND BAKER THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...EYES ON NORTHERN STREAM AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT HIGH TEMPS COULD BE EARLY MORNING WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LESS AS WE FIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS. CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ENHANCED IN UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION ABOVE ABOUT 6K FEET SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN FAR EASTERN MT IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THIS COULD ALSO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AT OR JUST BELOW 0C LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OF OUR COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. FRIEDERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT... DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONSISTENT IN PREDICTION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING QUICKLY BEHIND ACTIVE SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM...ALLOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 12Z.. AND THUS A POSSIBLE SECOND OFFICIAL FREEZE IN BILLINGS. THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE QUITE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN QUICKLY... BY ABOUT THURSDAY MORNING OR SOONER. TIMING ON THIS NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY OFF THOUGH IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... HAVE STILL KEPT SOMEWHAT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE OUT WEST HOWEVER... EXCEPT FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHEN UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL... MARKING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT POP CHANGE. TEMPS COULD THUS REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY NEXT SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. MROWELL && .AVIATION... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KLVM AND K3HT. BORSUM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 038/056 039/057 039/052 028/048 031/052 035/056 039/063 01/E 42/R 24/W 21/U 11/B 22/W 11/B LVM 033/057 033/057 033/049 023/052 030/051 031/053 033/059 12/W 32/R 44/W 11/U 22/W 32/W 11/B HDN 034/060 037/060 036/052 027/049 026/054 031/057 034/065 01/E 42/R 24/W 31/U 11/B 22/W 11/B MLS 038/057 039/051 037/049 031/045 027/048 033/053 037/062 01/E 16/R 24/W 31/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 4BQ 034/060 036/052 035/051 028/045 023/052 030/055 033/063 00/E 26/R 24/W 31/B 11/B 22/W 11/B BHK 032/055 032/047 033/049 028/042 022/045 027/050 032/060 10/E 17/R 64/W 31/N 11/B 11/B 11/B SHR 032/061 037/059 034/051 027/047 027/054 031/053 032/063 10/B 33/R 24/W 20/U 11/B 32/W 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS HEAVY CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THESE CLOUDS THIN TOWARDS THE WEST AND END OVER VALLEY AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. RADAR IMAGERY...WHICH HAD RAIN OVER WIBAUX AND RICHLAND COUNTIES...HAS THE RAIN CLEARED OUT. THEREFORE WILL DROP POPS AND CLEAR WX GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL ALSO UPDATE WIND BASED ON LATEST HRRR GRIDS. ALL CHANGES ARE ON THE MINOR SIDE WITH NO MAJOR EDITS. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER REGION WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON THE AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND BECOME REPLACED WITH DEVELOPING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS BEST. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME HOWEVER APPEARS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MALIAWCO .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO LINK THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS LINKAGE SLOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PULLS SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOW EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL A CONCERN AND ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE PROFILES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SUPPORT FREEZING PRECIPITATION...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. AS EVENT APPROACHES WILL REFINE THE CHANCES OF DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES. IN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AGAIN DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE BUILDING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS. EBERT && .AVIATION... A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE TODAY FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. BMICKELSON && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
233 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 COUPLE THINGS TO FOCUS ON INCLUDING WRAPPING UP THE UPPER LOW MOVING WHICH GAVE US THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND SOME LOCALLY FROSTY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CENTER OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR ONEILL NEBRASKA AND ON ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST. TRAILING SOUTH IS SURFACE TROUGH...ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TROUGH IS A WIND SHIFT AND MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY MAINLY...WITH DRY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING ITS PASSING. CLOSER TO THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PERSISTENT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS LINGERED ALL DAY... FAILING TO FILL IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL MARCHING NICELY TO THE EAST. FRANKLY...THE HRRR AND SPC WRF HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON ITS MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BEING VERY SPARSE. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY END ANY PRECIPITATION RISK. LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY DAWN. ATTENTION TURNS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL A DECENT BREEZE FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE LOWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES BY DAWN SATURDAY...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS. GOSPER...PHELPS AND KEARNEY NORTHWARD...HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED FROSTY/FREEZE CONDITIONS AND ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THE REST OF THE FALL. THE COUNTY OF CONCERN IS FURNAS COUNTY WHERE 33 TO 36 DEGREES IS MOST LIKELY...AND HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN A FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY. AFTER THE COOLER START SATURDAY...AND A BIT OF A MORNING BREEZE IN EASTERN AREAS... THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR THE REGION AND TURN QUITE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF. EXPECT SOME CLEAR BLUE SKIES THANKS TO OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENT KEEPING THE DUST DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES. ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A FEW COOLER NIGHTS. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH 850MB WINDS AT 25 KNOTS OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE VERY STRONG WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE OPEN WAVE THAT REACHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM BACK A LITTLE BIT. WITH CLOUDS AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT COOLER. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THE MAIN LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PERIOD HAS MUCH POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN STORY THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY...THANKS TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPPING LOW CLOUDS AROUND FROM THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN WITH FLUCUTATING CEILINGS FROM 2K TO 5K. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASING BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH SET TO MOVE THROUGH KGRI SHORTLY...AND GUST OVER 20KTS UNTIL EVENING...BUT STILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SNEAK BY KGRI PRIOR TO ABOUT 1815Z...THATS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AFTER 06Z TO 08Z TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OR THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ082. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
114 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR LOWS IN THE 30S. THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI- ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE. NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF IMPACT POSSIBLE TO KVTN HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CIGS WILL BE MVFR. KLBF ALSO SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS...WITH IMPROVING CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR LOWS IN THE 30S. THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI- ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE. NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MIXED VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED TODAY IN SHRA. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CIGS MVFR IN MANY AREAS. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS EVENING AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR LOWS IN THE 30S. THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI- ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE. NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE SHOWERS...INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AND/OR VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD TO BETWEEN LBF AND OGA 8-10Z AND REACHING BBW...TIF...AND VTN 10-13Z. THE SHOWERS ARE THEN LIKELY TO LAST 2 HOURS OR LESS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE SHORT RANGE FORECASTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW CEILINGS CONTINUING EAST OF A VTN-BBW-LBF. THE INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY THAN WE ARE THINKING AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY VTN-LBF AND WEST. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE EVENING MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF AN ONL- BBW-LBF LINE AND UNTIL 12Z FOR VTN...TIF...MHN AND OGA. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...NOW OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD EXIT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 04-05Z. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEGINNING EAST AND EXPANDING WESTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW OVER THE EASTERN ONE HALF OF THE STATE...FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL...INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHOWERS...INCLUDING A SQUALL REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT WHICH GENERATED A 35KT WIND GUST. STILL SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER MY NORTH CENTRAL...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 02Z. CLEARING SKIES WEST WILL TREND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS ZERO SO WILL JUST GO WITH RAIN MID MORNING SUNDAY - MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY WEST CENTRAL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK...ALONG WITH MORE SHOWING UP NORTH OF MY NORTHEAST. WILL THROW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHOWERS A TAD MORE ROBUST AND FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS OVER OLIVER COUNTY PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST. HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH BAND OF SHOWERS NORTH OF BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE COUNTY A FEW RADAR SCANS AGO. OPTED NOT TO PUT IN THUNDER FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH...PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE SLIDING EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ON SUNDAY...SOME FOG MAY LINGER OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT IN A ROUND OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WITH THE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES...A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK LEAD WAVE ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN UP JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MINIMAL. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN DYNAMIC AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY COINCIDE...HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...INCLUDING KJMS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY KBIS. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 THE RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WAS APPROACHING OR OVER PARTS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA...DICKINSON...AND HETTINGER IN THE WEST - AND EXTENDED TO NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN SHIELD REACHING MINOT/RUGBY AROUND 3 AM CDT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT REGARDING A DRY SLOT THAT IS PROGGED TO PUNCH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 3AM-4AM CDT WITH THE COMMA- SHAPED WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING THE DRY SLOT. THEN WITH TIME LATER IN THE MORNING THE DRY SLOT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE JAMES BASIN...BUT THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LATER ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE JAMES VALLEY. THE OVERALL EFFECT OF THE DRY SLOT WILL LESSEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.35 AND 0.50 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE RAIN SHIELD JUST APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AS OF 02 UTC. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY SLOT AND TROWAL FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST UPDATE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 21-00 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL SUGGEST THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA CROSSING THE SOUTHERN BORDER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 02 UTC...SPREADING NORTH THEREAFTER. THE 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT A DRY SLOT OVERTAKING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEY ALSO SHOW A TROWAL ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE BOWMAN...DICKINSON THROUGH BEULAH AREAS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 WIDESPREAD RAINS ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY EVENING. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EVENT...AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE - WHICH WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...ALL OF CENTRAL ND AND THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON...AND TAPER OFF IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHORTLY THEREAFTER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND A JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE JET STREAK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVERNIGHT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING PRECIP TYPES. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME...SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM MAY WRAP IN COOLER AIR...LEADING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BUT...A SHIFT IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW COULD COMPLETELY ALTER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND STRATUS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
830 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 800 PM UPDATE... COLD FRONT AS OF 00Z ENTERING NW OH...MARKED BY A VERY THIN BAND OF MODERATE SHRA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY LIGHT SHRA CONCENTRATED W OF THE OH RIVER. TIMING OF FRONT TWEAKED TO LATEST HRRR RUNS. HAVING IT THRU SE OH BY 06Z...E OF CKB/CRW BY 08Z...AND EXITING THE S ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THINKING POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LINGER AT LEAST INTO THRU THE MORNING HOURS AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT SW VA AND SE WV MAY HOLD ON TO STRATUS UNTIL DUSK. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING OVER TOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... MODELS SHOWING A GOOD BAND OF LIFT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE. WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW TIMING TWEAKS. A GOOD DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT THERE AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHEAST LOW- LEVEL WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE...FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA...WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND NBM DATA WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS MID WEEK. THEY ARE ALSO INGESTING THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FASTER. THIS RESULTS IN THE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM ALREADY INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT THANKS TO THE ABSORPTION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW CREATING A RELATIVE SHADOW ZONE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEADS TO THE HEAVIER QPF LIFTING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE WHILE HAVING CAT POPS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE QPF WILL DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT BY THESE FACTORS. THUS...WITH THIS AND THE DRY GROUND...NO WATER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SO THUNDER IS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN EXPECTED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POP POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE MAY BE TOO GENEROUS. IN ANY EVENT...IS SHOWERS DO LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FLAKES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT LOOKS CROSS KHTS/KPKB 5 TO 6Z...KCRW/KCKB 7 TO 8Z...KEKN/KBKW 9Z TO 10Z. HAVE PUT IN SOME 2 HR IFR TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA...WITH GENERALLY VFR -SHRA PRIOR TO FROPA. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH FROPA. A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS TO TRAP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOCKED IN MVFR POST FRONTAL BKN STRATUS FOR THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. EXCEPTION BEING KBKW WHERE POST FRONTAL IFR/LIFR CIGS WERE CODED UP AND GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO MVFR MIDDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AMID SOME PASSING CIRRUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS ALONG FRONT COULD VARY. TIMING OF ERADICATION OF MVFR STRATUS SUNDAY WILL VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD FORM IFR CEILINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY/30 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
607 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE STARTING IN THE WEST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ONGOING UNTIL IT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A VERY MOIST SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SHRA AND SPRINKLES IS WORKING INTO EASTERN INDIANA. AS THIS BAND RUNS INTO DRY AIR THINK THE SHRA WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER BAND QUICKLY IS SHOW TO DEVELOP ON THE HRRR/RAP AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THESE SHORT TERM MODELS THEN START TO DIFFER WITH THE HRRR BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A GOOD BAND OF RAIN REACHING THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF CLE TO NEAR BJJ BY 10 TO 11Z. THE RAP DOESN`T GET PRECIP THIS FAR UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST WHERE WHERE THE MODELS AGREE MORE THAT PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH MOST OF THE TEMP FALL BEFORE 06Z. THUS...EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S FOR THE INLAND EXTREME EAST TO 50 TO 55 IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM LAKE COUNTY WEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING CLOUD DECK. AS THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL OHIO THE MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER INDIANA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT THEM. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL JET COULD MAKE FOR SOME LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH PAST PEAK HEATING HOURS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BROKEN LINE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO CAPITALIZE ON THE SHEAR. EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER...ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT RAIN AS PW`S JUMP TO AROUND 1.5" SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER (3KM) WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RELATIVE TO THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY BRING DOWN HEAVY RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS. GIVEN HOW DRY THE AREA HAS BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THE PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STORM MOTIONS NEAR 50KT. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN WITH NW FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAKE (WHICH CONTINUES TO COOL INTO THE 50S) AND THE H850 IS NOT NOTABLE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PATTERN WILL SUDDENLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OF PATRICIA WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN NORTHWARD BY THE DEEPENING TROUGH...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TAPPING SOME COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY NOT CONSISTENT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE WHEN IT COMES TO PHASING A LONG WAVE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 MID WEEK...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT. HERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT IT IS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING NON VFR POSSIBLE FOR NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... STILL CHOPPY ON LAKE ERIE WITH A BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW. THE WIND MAY ACTUALLY COME UP A FEW KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE FROM THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BUT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES HEADING INTO THE OPEN WATERS AND CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND WHERE THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...JAMISON/ADAMS SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1018 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. THE REGION SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CI TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE...SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MARGINAL...BUT THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S...COOLING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD 6K/ 7K FOOT CLOUD DECKS WHERE NONE EXIST. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT VFR CLOUDS THE BEST AND SHOWS 6K/7K FOOT CLOUD DECK QUICKLY ERODING AROUND CMH/LCK. THIS AFTERNOON THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL START TO LOWER TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL LIFT... RAIN LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY SATURDAY 8 AM. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WE HAD SEEN SOME POST FRONTAL SC ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER...BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ATTM. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE BOUNDARY AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL GO WITH PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MARGINAL...BUT THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S...COOLING INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD 6K/ 7K FOOT CLOUD DECKS WHERE NONE EXIST. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT VFR CLOUDS THE BEST AND SHOWS 6K/7K FOOT CLOUD DECK QUICKLY ERODING AROUND CMH/LCK. THIS AFTERNOON THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL START TO LOWER TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL LIFT... RAIN LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY SATURDAY 8 AM. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
504 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COOL AND CLOUDY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 500 AM...ANTICIPATING PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND PRESENCE OF A FEW OBS WITH LOW VSBY TOGETHER ARE A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-85. WILL MONITOR OBS TRENDS BUT CURRENTLY I THINK THE IMPACT WILL BE ISOLATED...AND NO HEADLINES APPEAR NECESSARY. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUS WILL PERSIST. FURTHER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT AROUND 80 IN MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO AT ALL SITES. PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL PUSH UPPER RIDGE EWD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST...DRIVING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWFA FROM THE NE. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND AS THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES UP THE BLUE RIDGE...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ALONG THE EAST FACING ESCARPMENT AND THRU THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MINS ALSO REMAIN WARM...TWO OR THREE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION. A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE ON THE E COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE N AND THE REMNANT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS FL...WITH A CONFLUENCE IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS OWING TO WHATEVER BECOMES OF THE PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT OVER TX. EXPECT THAT SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT AND WEAKENS...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDINESS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINK THE BULK OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE DRY...UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE N. CHANGES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS REORGANIZE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST AND MS DELTA REGION. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AS TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THRU MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN BOUNDARY TO THE N...WHICH IS MILDLY PREFERRED BECAUSE IF A TROPICAL REMNANT COMES OUT FROM TX TO THE MS DELTA IT WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT KEEPING SOME UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD HELP TO DETER THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THAT WILL KEEP A N-S GRADIENT OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF AS WELL. WE LACK MID/UPPER FORCING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PROBABILITY IN THE CHANCE RANGE AWAY FROM THE TN BORDER. AN OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DISCOURAGE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC...THUS THE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...AND HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS SCENARIO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FCST OWING TO A POSSIBLE COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN GETTING KICKED OUT OF THE MS DELTA REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FEEL MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WEDGE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONFLUENT UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY ANCHOR A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER SE ONTARIO OR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOIST UPGLIDE SHOULD LOCK IN THE WEDGE THRU TUESDAY. TEMPS WERE NOT CHANGED AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE NUDGED PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD THRU MID WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BEYOND TUESDAY... BUT ODDLY ENUF THE END RESULT SHOULD BE SIMILAR. THE PARENT HIGH SHOULD PICK UP AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSLATE E/NE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE. THE MODELS SUGGEST A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY... TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HARD TO SPECULATE RIGHT NOW ABOUT WHAT EFFECT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. PRECIP AMTS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WPC DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SOAKING RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES MAINLY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 09Z KCLT UPDATE...LATEST HRRR AND RAP THINK DENSE FOG MAY FORM AT THE FIELD. A FEW NEARBY SITES ARE EXPERIENCING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THIS A.M. AND IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MAY OCCUR AT KCLT WITH LITTLE WARNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO AT KAVL. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT. KAND ACCORDINGLY SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. FLOW WILL PREVAIL EASTERLY THOUGH BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. KCLT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS FLIP FROM NE TO SE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTN. AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGS INTO NC TONIGHT...LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN OVER KHKY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SFC MIXING IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY IN THE EVENT. OUTLOOK...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACRS THE NC SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-06Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL LOW 44% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WIMBERLEY NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE A COOL AND CLOUDY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 145 AM UPDATE...STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH NAM FAMILY GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES. REVISED MENTION THEREOF BASED ON LATEST PROGS...BUT OVERALL CHANGE IS SMALL. AS OF 1020 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC (ALBEIT WEAKENING). SO OVERALL...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT TEMPS SHUD BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND AROUND LAKES AND RIVERS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 0 MB SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ACRS THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER PIEDMONT...HINTING AT POSSIBLE DENSE FOG. THE RAP AND THE NARRE-TL HAVE ALSO LATCHED ON TO THIS...BUT KEEPING IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12-13 C ACROSS THE MTNS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 14C EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TODAY/S VALUES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA FRI NITE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT. THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL SAT NITE AND SUN AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SE INTO THE AREA THRU SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT NITE AND INTO THE AREA ON SUN. QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRI NITE AND SAT...TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT BAY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PRODUCING CLOUDS. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM ELY TO SLY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THIS TIME...AND THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IN A RELATIVELY THIN LAYER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT DO KEEP CLOUDS IN FRI NITE AND SAT MORNING. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WILE HIGHS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EARLY CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY IS WEAK...THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY WHICH SHOULD CREATE WLY UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT WILL ALSO KEEP ANY GULF INFLOW AT BAY AND CREATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TRENDS WHICH BRINGS SMALL POP INTO THE NRN MTNS LATE SAT NITE THEN SPREAD THE PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THRU THE DAY SUN...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT BEST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC/GA MTNS. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS RISE TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THICKNESSES RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE WAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AN ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA...WITH ALL FORCING WELL INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WILL BE LURKING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS THE ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CUTS OFF FROM THE ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE PERSISTENT AND DECENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR THE TEXAS COAST AND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP AN UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE FAVORED SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED HIGHER...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A NARROW RIBBON OF 0.50-1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS CONSIDERABLY...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 3-10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A FAIRLY POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM IS GOING TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AND PICK UP WHATEVER ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SOMETIME MID- TO LATE WEEK. THERE REMAINS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS OF COURSE...AS GUIDANCE UNSUPRISINGLY DISAGREES ON TIMING...EVOLUTION...AND THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS. THE GFS IS EARLIER WITH THESE FEATURES AND KEEPS THE GULF LOW MOVING TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE INTERMITTENT ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ...WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF MORE SLOWLY TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEREBY RESULTING IN CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES OF EVENT-TOTAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW MORE INLINE WITH THE 12Z GFS IN LOW TRACK AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES DURING THIS EVENT IS INCREASING. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OF MINIMAL CONCERN HYDROLOGICALLY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO AT KAVL. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT. KAND ACCORDINGLY SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. FLOW WILL PREVAIL EASTERLY THOUGH BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. KCLT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS FLIP FROM NE TO SE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTN. AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGS INTO NC TONIGHT...LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN OVER KHKY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SFC MIXING IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY IN THE EVENT. OUTLOOK...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACRS THE NC SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 72% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY NEAR TERM...ARK/NED/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...JMP AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WITH WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SD IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW ARE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE A 59 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE NWS OFFICE JUST BEFORE 800 AM. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET. UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING AND EASTWARD MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA BY MIDDAY AND EXIT THE CWA BY SUNSET. SOME SUN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MVFR/IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031- 072>074. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...26 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WITH WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SD IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW ARE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE RAPID CITY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE A 59 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE NWS OFFICE JUST BEFORE 800 AM. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET. UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING AND EASTWARD MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA BY MIDDAY AND EXIT THE CWA BY SUNSET. SOME SUN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND THE MAIN MOISTURE PUSH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031- 072>074. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...26 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
311 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND THE MAIN MOISTURE PUSH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-031-072-073. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
110 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ NOW THAT THE SECOND MORNING ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA HAS PAST EAST OF DFW AIRPORTS...NEXT CONCERN WILL BE TIMING THE NEXT ROUND EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WACO/S CONCERNS INCLUDE PERSISTENCE OF CURRENT TSRA W/+RA AND WHEN ANY BREAKS WILL OCCUR WITH TIMING OF TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY ANOTHER DIFFICULT CHALLENGE. OTHERWISE...CIGS FLUCUATING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR TO CONTINUE BEING PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. TIMING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING FOR SWITCHING TO PERMANENT NORTH FLOW. LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES WEST OF THE AREA WITH RIPPLES OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM FAR WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. WITH MOISTURE NEAR MAXIMUM FOR LATE OCTOBER WE EXPECT FEW MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH AT TIMES INTENSE RAINFALL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR MAZATLAN OFF THE WESTERN MEXICAN COAST WILL ALSO ADD TO THE MIX LATER THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS BY THE TIME ANY EFFECTS FROM PATRICIA SHOULD OCCUR. DFW... WILL CARRY VFR WITH VCSH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BEFORE INTRODUCING THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA INTO THE MIX. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WITH THIS SECOND RD COMING TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY +RA. ESE WINDS 5-7 KTS SHOULD BECOME SE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. TIMING ANY ROUNDS BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HRS IS DIFFICULT WITH SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS FOR SIMPLICITY/S SAKE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WACO... HOW LONG TO PERSIST CURRENT TSRA W/+RA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON APPEARS REASONABLE. AFTERWARD...WILL FOLLOW WITH SHRA WORDING WITH VCTS. ESE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/ .....QUICK OVERVIEW...PRECIPITATION EVENT..... FLASH FLOOD WATCH... NOW INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS... WIDESPREAD TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA WITH HEAVIEST LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ON SATURDAY...HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS... ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED 8 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SHEAR REMAINS STRONG SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT... HIGH. WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MORE RAIN FALLS ON WET GROUNDS. URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AS RAINS CONTINUE. RIVER FLOODING THREAT... MODERATE. RIVERS ARE NOW STARTING TO RESPOND UPWARD WITH CONTINUED RAIN. SHOULD SEE MORE RUNOFF MAKING IT INTO STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH TONIGHT. .....DISCUSSION..... MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TO THE SOUTH...MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 200 MPH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. A HURRICANE THIS STRONG HAS A WELL DEFINED MATURE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH EFFICIENTLY EVACUATES AIR OUT OF THE TOP OF THE HURRICANE. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS CLOCKWISE ROTATING BANDS WHICH ALREADY EXTENDS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME IMPORTANT LATER TONIGHT TO HELP ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. THOUGHTS FOR TODAY...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND THE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION IS NOW RETREATING TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS IN THE METROPLEX HAVE NOW BECOME SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY NOT BE AS IMPORTANT IN FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INSTEAD...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF A 35KT LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OF THE METROPLEX IN AN AREA OF MODERATE WARM ADVECTION AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. ITS TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TODAY...BUT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SEE ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY TONIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP TO GREATLY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO FORT WORTH TO BONHAM. THIS AREA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY AND THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS MEANS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A SOUTHWARD MOVING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 68 73 60 71 / 100 100 100 60 30 WACO, TX 74 68 75 61 71 / 100 90 100 70 40 PARIS, TX 75 65 73 60 71 / 100 90 80 60 60 DENTON, TX 73 65 71 58 69 / 100 100 90 50 20 MCKINNEY, TX 73 66 72 59 70 / 100 100 90 60 30 DALLAS, TX 73 68 73 61 71 / 100 100 100 70 30 TERRELL, TX 74 67 74 61 70 / 100 100 100 70 50 CORSICANA, TX 74 68 76 63 71 / 100 90 100 80 50 TEMPLE, TX 75 67 74 61 71 / 90 90 100 80 40 MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 64 71 57 70 / 100 100 80 40 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ 05/91
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Fog and low clouds have been slow to erode, and could continue to affect FST and MAF through the first hour or so of the forecast period. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail, though thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall could affect MAF this afternoon. A cold front will start to move through the area late in the forecast period, with winds increasing and veering to the northeast, with gusts up to 25-30KT possible behind the front Saturday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/ DISCUSSION... Radar this morning has been more active than was previously expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa. Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the public should be cautious travelling this morning. A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection. Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely. Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but long range models are indicating another system late in the week will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall. Hennig MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
648 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE KAMA TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT KGUY BY 16Z...TO KDHT BY 17Z...AND TO KAMA BY 22Z. WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. NF && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/ DISCUSSION... UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...APART FROM PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOL START EACH DAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY SUB-40 MINIMA EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...OWING TO POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH EASTERN ZONES. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY MAXIMA FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO. MODELS AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRAVERSE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS ONLY. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE CALLED FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL SPREAD BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEREAFTER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST. COCKRELL && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 6/3
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 622 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... Nocturnal storms have moved east of TAF sites... may see some redevelopment today mainly for MAF and FST but did not include in TAFs. Widespread low clouds and fog this morning with mainly IFR cigs and vsbys... some local LIFR conditions. Expect VFR conditions by afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/ DISCUSSION... Radar this morning has been more active than was previously expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa. Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the public should be cautious travelling this morning. A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection. Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely. Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but long range models are indicating another system late in the week will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall. Hennig && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE BORDERLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A THIRD STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... AN UNSETTLED BUT LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF THREE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS LACKING THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE LOWLANDS. A NOTE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RECENT RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODELS ARE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THAT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER OCCURRENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS EAST OF EL PASO SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FURTHER EAST INTO WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR FOR EASTERN ZONES IN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME LOCALLY WINDY ALONG WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER OPEN WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BUT BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN DEEPENING THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SINCE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO OCCUR...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBILITY BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO LOCAL AREA WEATHER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MTNS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBY IN MTN ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AFT 06Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS...THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFT 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WEAK OPEN TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH MINOR IMPACTS TO LOCAL AREA WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE GILA REGION AND POSSIBLY THE SAC MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT LOWERING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIVER. LONGER TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST A ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 75 51 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 75 50 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 72 45 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 72 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 54 36 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 46 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 65 41 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 DEMING 72 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 73 44 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 75 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 76 51 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 77 51 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 71 49 66 47 / 0 0 0 0 FABENS 75 50 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 75 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 71 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 71 43 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 HATCH 71 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 74 47 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 72 48 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 61 39 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 MESCALERO 62 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 TIMBERON 61 41 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 WINSTON 62 39 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 68 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 71 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 66 35 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 68 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 71 38 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 69 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 68 43 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 74 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 72 44 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 71 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 71 46 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04 LUNDEEN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... Radar this morning has been more active than was previously expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa. Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the public should be cautious travelling this morning. A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection. Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely. Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but long range models are indicating another system late in the week will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 71 54 61 49 / 70 40 20 20 CARLSBAD NM 75 53 66 43 / 0 10 10 10 DRYDEN TX 82 65 68 56 / 40 50 40 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 74 58 62 49 / 40 40 30 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 68 50 60 45 / 0 10 10 10 HOBBS NM 73 50 65 42 / 0 10 0 0 MARFA TX 74 51 62 42 / 10 20 20 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 56 61 46 / 60 30 20 10 ODESSA TX 74 56 64 47 / 50 30 20 10 WINK TX 76 57 68 49 / 20 20 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 10/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .AVIATION... MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO HAVE MADE IT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE ANOTHER ROUND APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 30 && .UPDATE... OUR LONG AWAITED RAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WE WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL ALSO EXPAND THE 100 PERCENT POPS TO AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS IMMINENT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 79 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING.. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED... THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL DAY FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH OF DFW WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS ALREADY TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW AREAS...BUT LUCKILY OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOW MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TO ABSORB INTO THE SOIL WITH JUST MAINLY SOME STREET FLOODING REPORTED. THE PERSISTENT RAIN AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO A GAINESVILLE...TO DECATUR... TO EASTLAND LINE. THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY REMAINS ANALOGOUS AT BEST...AS EVEN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS JOIN THE STANDARD MODELS IN NOT RESOLVING THE CURRENT BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...OR THE COLD POOL VERY WELL AT ALL. PICKING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS NOT IN THE CARDS TODAY AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HRRR AND ECMWF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR IS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH TO BE OUTRUN BY IT/S COLD POOL AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT REFORMING OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE WEST OF A SHERMAN...DALLAS...COMANCHE LINE WITH MORE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS EASING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO WEST- CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE LARGE SCALE WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT COMBINING WITH ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WHERE THAT WILL BE IS ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SET UP SOMEWHERE. OTHER AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL RACING NORTH WITH THE MEAN SSW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN VERY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE MORE PRIMED FROM CURRENT RAINFALL AND REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE LAST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING THIS FEATURE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LLJ AND 850MB WAA ENCOUNTER INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY DROP A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MY BIG CONCERN WITH THE SECOND EVENT IS THAT MANY AREAS MAY BE SATURATED OR EXPERIENCING ONGOING...LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WINDOW IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN REGARDING BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS WE FINISH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE TRACK MORE FLAT AND OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS EITHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OR TAPERING OFF. WITH MY CONFIDENCE VERY LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING THE ENTIRETY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL COME MORE IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS. TIMING SUCH ROUNDS IS ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...THUS WE STRESS TO EVERYONE TO BE PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF THEY ARE SUCCUMBED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OR EXTREME URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. WE WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE TIMING THE ROUNDS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS BEST WE CAN...BUT THE BEST BET IS TO BE AWARE AT ALL TIMES...ESPECIALLY DRIVING AND OUTDOORS...TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...RAIN...RAIN-PRODUCED COLD POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND HALLOWEEN...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW WITH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS TO ADVERTISE FUTURE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 78 67 71 59 / 100 100 100 90 60 WACO, TX 69 80 67 74 60 / 70 90 100 100 70 PARIS, TX 68 75 66 72 59 / 90 100 80 100 70 DENTON, TX 64 77 66 71 58 / 100 80 90 90 50 MCKINNEY, TX 64 76 66 72 59 / 100 90 90 100 60 DALLAS, TX 67 78 67 72 59 / 90 100 100 100 60 TERRELL, TX 69 78 67 74 61 / 80 90 100 100 70 CORSICANA, TX 70 80 68 75 61 / 60 80 80 100 70 TEMPLE, TX 70 80 67 74 61 / 60 80 80 100 70 MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 79 64 71 58 / 100 80 80 80 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ 30/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
910 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH AND WEAKENING BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WETTER STORM SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY... EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER STILL QUITE A TONGUE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN WITHIN THE 85H-7H INVERSION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE DRY PER THE LEFTOVER RESIDUAL WEDGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS HAS ACTED TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT WERE CROSSING THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LOBE OF LIFT/SHOWERS ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT JUST WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WITH OVERALL ONLY THE HRRR BRINGING COVERAGE EAST TO AT LEAST THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS PLAN TO KEEP SOME HIGHER LIKELY POPS GOING FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT PER CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THE SHOWERS...WHILE ONLY GOING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY ON...THEN MORE CHANCE NATURE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. SOLID MID DECK CANOPY SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH UNLESS SHOWERS/EVAPORATION INCREASE SO STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR LOWS AT THIS POINT. SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE POOLS BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE FURTHER NORTHEAST. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF NC/VA BORDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT REACHING AN NORFOLK VA TO GSP LINE. THE MODELS START TO BRING JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY CORRIDOR...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF I- 64...HIGHWAY 60 TO RETURN SOME SUN BY 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OVERALL WILL STAY CLOUDY. HIGHS SHOULD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 60SS OUT EAST AND THE NC FOOTHILLS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY. BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES. CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES... PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE FROM UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY... SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON KFCX WSR-88D IMAGE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE FEW SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BLF-LWB CORRIDOR BY 05-10Z AND BCB/ROA BY 08-12Z. WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB...WITH MAINLY VFR EAST WITH LIMITED SHOWER THREAT EAST OF ROA. MODELS VARY ON WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NAM/LOCAL WRF INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN ROA/BCB BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH CLOUD COVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON BRING UP THE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER SOUTH OF A BLF-BCB LINE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MIDWEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WORKS FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WETTER STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY... SFC FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD TO SE MISSOURI. SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND IS RETREATING WITH WEDGE ERODING. FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS SW...THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN MAKING IT TOWARD THE SE WV/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS BY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT FOLDS OVER BY SUNDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ON SOUTHEAST WV TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE LATE TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT TO NO CHANCE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD...MOSTLY IN THE 50S. SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE POOLS BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE FURTHER NORTHEAST. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF NC/VA BORDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT REACHING AN NORFOLK VA TO GSP LINE. THE MODELS START TO BRING JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY CORRIDOR...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF I- 64...HIGHWAY 60 TO RETURN SOME SUN BY 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OVERALL WILL STAY CLOUDY. HIGHS SHOULD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 60SS OUT EAST AND THE NC FOOTHILLS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY. BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES. CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES... PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE FROM UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY... SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON KFCX WSR-88D IMAGE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE FEW SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BLF-LWB CORRIDOR BY 05-10Z AND BCB/ROA BY 08-12Z. WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB...WITH MAINLY VFR EAST WITH LIMITED SHOWER THREAT EAST OF ROA. MODELS VARY ON WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NAM/LOCAL WRF INDICATING THE POPTENTIAL FOR FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN ROA/BCB BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH CLOUD COVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON BRING UP THE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER SOUTH OF A BLF-BCB LINE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MIDWEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... 816 PM CDT MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO... WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... 228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION AND COVERAGE IS LOW. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS && .LONG TERM... 237 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB- TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * NONE. //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING BRINGING A DIMINISHING TO THE NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO GYY THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. THE MOMENTUM OF THIS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT. //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS INCLUDING THAT WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW 9 KT. //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z... MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY. THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR. MTF/IZZI && .MARINE... 209 AM CDT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WAVES WITHIN THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE GIVEN THE FETCH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAVES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EASILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH THE WAVES BUILDING WITHIN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN NEARSHORES. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONSIDERABLY DEEPEN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER OR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SUCH A PATTERN CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES BEHIND THAT FRONT...ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM FOR MAXIMUM WIND STRENGTH...WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN TIME. A QUIET TAIL END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE CASE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1211 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... 816 PM CDT MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO... WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... 228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION AND COVERAGE IS LOW. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS && .LONG TERM... 237 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB- TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * NONE. //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING BRINGING A DIMINISHING TO THE NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO GYY THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. THE MOMENTUM OF THIS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT. //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS INCLUDING THAT WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW 9 KT. //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z... MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY. THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...VFR. MTF/IZZI && .MARINE... 237 PM CDT THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM SRN SASK/ALBERTA AND THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER ALBERTA WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TODAY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV BRUSHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 SOUTH. TONIGHT...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWVS NEAR THE REGION PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF 850-600 MB FGEN WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE GREATEST PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY THROUGH SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND AS THE GEM PRODUCES PCPN ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 ...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK EXPECTED... ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IN STRORE WITH BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ENOUGH COOL AIR ON BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO HAVE SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. OUTLOOKS FM CPC INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG EL NINO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN. STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OVER NORTHERN MN INTO LK SUPERIOR BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON MONDAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH RIBBON OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT RAIN OVER AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF CWA. LIGHT RAIN MAY LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. APPEARS KEWEENAW MISSES OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH FARTHER NORTH GEM-REGIONAL WOULD BRING SOME RAIN UP TO HOUGHTON/HANCOCK. DECAYING RIBBON OF MOISTURE LINGERS INTO MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CERTAIN. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CNTRL IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PERSIST. ATTN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNS TO DEEPENING TROUGH FM CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND ALSO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER SCNTRL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DRY LOW-LEVELS DUE TO HIGH IN THE VCNTY TO PROHIBIT MUCH RAIN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS FOCUSES OVER WEST LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MN SO THAT IS WHERE LOW POPS WILL RESIDE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ONE PART OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER CNTRL PLAINS WHILE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOWS OVER MANITOBA AND OVER MO/ILL SHOULD RESULT IN SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MOVE INTO CWA. SUPPOSE ESE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM AS EARLY AS EVENING OVER UPSLOPE OF CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY LOW CHANCE. RAIN SPREADS OVER ALL CWA BY DAYBREAK WED. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF WED AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ONLY INCREASES DUE TO PHASING OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW OVER MO/ILL BECOMES MAIN PLAYER...DEEPENING TO 990-995MB WHILE REACHING SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY WED AND TO AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES OVER LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z THU. DESPITE LOW CROSSING THE CWA ON WED...FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE VIA THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO KEEP DRY SLOT AFFECTS TO A MINIMUM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER IF NOT ONE HALF INCH SHOULD RESULT FM THE SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ALL THE INTERACTIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ALOFT...SPECIFICS IN RAIN TIMING/EXTENT AND AMOUNTS MAY STILL CHANGE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. PROGS OF H85 TEMPS AND 1000- 850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF POINT TO COOLEST AIR STAYING OVER MN AND WI WHILE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPR MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS AT 12Z THU ARE -2C OVER LK SUPERIOR AND ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4C BY 00Z. LK SUPERIOR TEMPS ARE 8- 10C...SO PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THU LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z FRIDAY BUT WITH LESS CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKING AT PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THAT TIME. GFS IS COLDER AND WOULD POINT TO SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND EAST NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF OR GEM IN BRINGING QPF INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. USED CONSENSUS WHICH ONLY HAS SMALL CHANCES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW EARLY IN THE MRNG AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHG FM THE NW CROSSES LK SUP. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN THE AFTN AT THESE LOCATIONS FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD WI AND ALONG THE STALLED LO PRES TROF MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN TO IWD AND PERHAPS SAW THIS EVNG. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 25 KTS INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AFFECTS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1253 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH. REPORTS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE ALREADY BEEN MET IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WHITE`S BEACH ON GRAND ISLE GUSTING TO 49MPH AND COLCHESTER REEF GUSTING TO 53 MPH. I CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE VALLEY AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. I BUMPED UP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT OBS AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WELL COVERED WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 708 PM SATURDAY... ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE WORKED THAT IN...ALTHOUGH A LEVELING OUT AND EVEN A GRADUAL RISE IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE/SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR WINDS...HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE...AND 25-40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND FORCED SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL BE PRESENT...THE QUESTION IS HOW THE STABILITY EVOLVES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT OBSERVED GUSTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE WITH WARMER LAKE WATERS...WHERE 40-50 MPH GUSTS IN FORECAST. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 30-40 MPH LOOKS GOOD. OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCATIONS...ALL GUSTS WILL BE LESS THAN 30 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION 04Z-10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE SOME TERRAIN-DRIVEN COMPONENTS...WITH THE LEAST IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AROUND 0.10")...AND GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS WITH UP TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN LIE IN A NARROW WARM SECTOR OF PARENT CENTRAL CANADIAN SYSTEM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY ABATES AND VEERS TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING STEADILY EASTWARD. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW ADDITIONAL MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MOST OF THE DAY GENERALLY DRY DESPITE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (50S) SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE READINGS LEVEL OFF, OR EVEN FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY COOL AND QUIET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BODILY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...CONDITIONS BEGIN TRANQUIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY DEPARTS EWD THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT SELY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE OVERSPREAD OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SW-NE TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM OWING TO LATER ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. 00Z GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT UPCOMING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING FIRST WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM SW-NE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS STEADY/WAA ASSOCIATED PCPN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-18Z WED...WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY 18Z WED THRU 00Z THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY (GENERALLY 65-75 PERCENT)...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL LIKELY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL (S-SE 20-30 MPH)...WITH STRONG P- GRADIENT IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S...AND LIKELY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 50F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SLY GRADIENT FLOW. MAY SEE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT EVOLVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. PW VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.25-1.5" DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING PER 00Z GFS. ALONG WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HVY RAINFALL WED AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE 00Z GFS...BUT 1-1.5" GENERALLY IN THE 00Z ECMWF. SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/MTN FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE WNW. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST SECTIONS...WITH GENERAL TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT AT BTV. DOWNWARD MIXING IS LIMITED AT RUT/MPV/MSS WITH INVERSION LAYER IN PLACE...AND CARRIED LLWS GROUPS AT THESE SITES. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AT LOW LEVELS DURING NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH 60KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AT 2-3 KFT AGL THRU ABOUT 10Z. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FROPA BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS. CEILINGS SLOWLY RETURN VFR BY 18Z THIS AFTN WITH DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING. SFC WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR STRONG AND CHANNELED SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS FROM 28 TO 43 KNOTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OPEN LAKE WATERS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS ABATE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE STRONGER WINDS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002- 005. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/DEAL/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AFFECTS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1253 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH. REPORTS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE ALREADY BEEN MET IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WHITE`S BEACH ON GRAND ISLE GUSTING TO 49MPH AND COLCHESTER REEF GUSTING TO 53 MPH. I CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE VALLEY AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. I BUMPED UP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT OBS AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY WELL COVERED WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 708 PM SATURDAY... ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE WORKED THAT IN...ALTHOUGH A LEVELING OUT AND EVEN A GRADUAL RISE IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE/SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR WINDS...HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE...AND 25-40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND FORCED SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL BE PRESENT...THE QUESTION IS HOW THE STABILITY EVOLVES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT OBSERVED GUSTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE WITH WARMER LAKE WATERS...WHERE 40-50 MPH GUSTS IN FORECAST. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 30-40 MPH LOOKS GOOD. OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCATIONS...ALL GUSTS WILL BE LESS THAN 30 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION 04Z-10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE SOME TERRAIN-DRIVEN COMPONENTS...WITH THE LEAST IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AROUND 0.10")...AND GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS WITH UP TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN LIE IN A NARROW WARM SECTOR OF PARENT CENTRAL CANADIAN SYSTEM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY ABATES AND VEERS TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING STEADILY EASTWARD. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW ADDITIONAL MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MOST OF THE DAY GENERALLY DRY DESPITE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (50S) SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE READINGS LEVEL OFF, OR EVEN FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY COOL AND QUIET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BODILY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE 4 THROUGH 7 DAY FORECAST EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT LIKELY. THE PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH LIKELY. IN ADDITION GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON THURSDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING 996MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CREATE GUSTS SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON WEDS EVENING. GIVEN MIXING HEIGHTS AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXPECT GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NOSE OF 850MB JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS LIFTING ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 250 MB JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. PW`S SURGE TO 1.50" AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS 2 TO 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. THINKING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.50 IS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. SOME SHADOWING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I HAVE MENTION HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CAT POPS FROM LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BY 18Z THURSDAY...RESULTING IN STEADIER RAINS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY. AS POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LIGHT. PROGGED 850 TEMPS SUPPORT NEARLY NORMAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY...BUT WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5C ON WEDS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. THINKING EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BEFORE VALUES DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS AND PRECIP EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY WEDS NIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT AT BTV. DOWNWARD MIXING IS LIMITED AT RUT/MPV/MSS WITH INVERSION LAYER IN PLACE...AND CARRIED LLWS GROUPS AT THESE SITES. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AT LOW LEVELS DURING NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH 60KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AT 2-3 KFT AGL THRU ABOUT 10Z. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FROPA BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS. CEILINGS SLOWLY RETURN VFR BY 18Z THIS AFTN WITH DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING. SFC WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR STRONG AND CHANNELED SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS FROM 28 TO 43 KNOTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OPEN LAKE WATERS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS ABATE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE STRONGER WINDS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002- 005. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/DEAL/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
133 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. CLOUDS WERE ALSO INCREASED TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA. EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...SUPPORTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODELS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...NOW OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD EXIT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 04-05Z. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEGINNING EAST AND EXPANDING WESTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW OVER THE EASTERN ONE HALF OF THE STATE...FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL...INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHOWERS...INCLUDING A SQUALL REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT WHICH GENERATED A 35KT WIND GUST. STILL SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER MY NORTH CENTRAL...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 02Z. CLEARING SKIES WEST WILL TREND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS ZERO SO WILL JUST GO WITH RAIN MID MORNING SUNDAY - MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY WEST CENTRAL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK...ALONG WITH MORE SHOWING UP NORTH OF MY NORTHEAST. WILL THROW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 SHOWERS A TAD MORE ROBUST AND FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS OVER OLIVER COUNTY PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST. HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH BAND OF SHOWERS NORTH OF BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE COUNTY A FEW RADAR SCANS AGO. OPTED NOT TO PUT IN THUNDER FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH...PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE SLIDING EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ON SUNDAY...SOME FOG MAY LINGER OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT IN A ROUND OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WITH THE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES...A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK LEAD WAVE ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN UP JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MINIMAL. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN DYNAMIC AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY COINCIDE...HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODELS. POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT KBIS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT AND KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AC SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
204 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 800 PM UPDATE... COLD FRONT AS OF 00Z ENTERING NW OH...MARKED BY A VERY THIN BAND OF MODERATE SHRA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY LIGHT SHRA CONCENTRATED W OF THE OH RIVER. TIMING OF FRONT TWEAKED TO LATEST HRRR RUNS. HAVING IT THRU SE OH BY 06Z...E OF CKB/CRW BY 08Z...AND EXITING THE S ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THINKING POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LINGER AT LEAST INTO THRU THE MORNING HOURS AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT SW VA AND SE WV MAY HOLD ON TO STRATUS UNTIL DUSK. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING OVER TOP LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... MODELS SHOWING A GOOD BAND OF LIFT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE. WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW TIMING TWEAKS. A GOOD DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT THERE AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHEAST LOW- LEVEL WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE...FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA...WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND NBM DATA WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS MID WEEK. THEY ARE ALSO INGESTING THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FASTER. THIS RESULTS IN THE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM ALREADY INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT THANKS TO THE ABSORPTION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW CREATING A RELATIVE SHADOW ZONE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEADS TO THE HEAVIER QPF LIFTING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE WHILE HAVING CAT POPS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE QPF WILL DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT BY THESE FACTORS. THUS...WITH THIS AND THE DRY GROUND...NO WATER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SO THUNDER IS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN EXPECTED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POP POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE MAY BE TOO GENEROUS. IN ANY EVENT...IS SHOWERS DO LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FLAKES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MOST AREAS GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT IN FRONTAL SHOWERS WHERE MVFR IS MORE PREVALENT. INCLUDED A FEW ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AS FRONT PASSES. BELIEVE MVFR AND VFR MIX WILL FOLLOW FRONT BEFORE DOMINANT VFR TAKES HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS ALONG FRONT COULD VARY. TIMING OF ERADICATION OF MVFR STRATUS SUNDAY WILL VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L M M H M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H M L L L L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M H M M M M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD FORM IFR CEILINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY/30 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
933 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE E TONIGHT AND SUN...BRINGING RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL FOLLOW SUN NIGHT KEEPING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE MON NIGHT AND TUE SHOULD WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MOVE CLOSER. RAIN SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD SOAKING BUT NOTHING MORE. UPDATED FORECAST A BIT EARLIER THIS EVEN TO MOVE POPS UP IN TIME WEST OF THE VALLEY BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. BOWEN .SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SATELLITE PICS EARLY SAT AFTERNOON SHOWED A LOW ABOUT 250 NM OFF THE S OREGON COAST...WITH AN ACTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR 127W ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STRETCH OUT. WILL SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SPREADING INLAND LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE BETTER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN EARLY SUN AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND A WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION MOVES INLAND. AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST SEEN NEAR THE 300K ISENTROPE WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT SPREADING CHANCES FOR RAIN INLAND DURING THE MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN UNSTABLE LAYER BELOW 10K FT THAT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS DIP TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST SUN...EVENTUALLY TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA SUN EVENING. GRADIENTS LOOK CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL SO HIGH WINDS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT EXISTS FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE COAST SUN AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MON...ESP ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS THE BEST. A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BRING A SHORT LIVED RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. .LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN MOVES BACK IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. LOW PRES TO APPROACH THE COAST THROUGH SUN...CAUSING CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. -SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. STEADIER RAIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND INLAND SUNDAY MORNING. COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TO FALL INTO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE. INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUN MORNING...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA HILLS IN SW WA. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE INLAND TAF SITES BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AM. VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z THEN CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER. RAIN TO SPREAD IN LATER SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CIGS LIKELY BY AROUND MIDDAY. E WIND TO AFFECT ERN APPROACHES TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SUN. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO S-SW. PYLE && .MARINE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 44N/130W THIS EVENING WITH A CENTRAL PRES NEAR 996 MB. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 125 NM W OF NEWPORT BY AROUND 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL BE GRADUALLY FILLING...EXPECT A BURST OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. THE LATEST FCST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND 03Z RAP ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...WHICH MAY SEE GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT AS WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THIS EVENT. THERE IS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW... WHICH SHOULD SHELTER THE INNER WATERS UNTIL THE LOW COMES CLOSED NEAR TO THE INNER WATERS SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE S WASHINGTON COAST SUN EVENING...BUT A REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...KEEPING GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUN NIGHT. AFTER A LULL MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER SPLITTING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS WED. SHOULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. INCREASING W-SW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SUN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 12-15 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATER MON AND TUE...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEAS IN THE 12-15 FT RANGE. PYLE && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SUNDAY. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
546 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES. I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING. A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING. PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA. A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOST OF THE SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE INVERSION MAKING IT HARD TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS COMING INTO THE AREA AND THAT THE CLOUDS OFF LAKE MI ARE BREAKING UP NOW ACROSS MUCH OF MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFT. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. THU...WINDY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES. I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING. A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING. PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA. A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS AFTER THIS TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SPREADING RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT KBFD THRU 07Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MVFR CONDS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 03Z-07Z AND EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE SE AIRFIELDS /KMDT AND KLNS/ BY ARND 08Z. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL PA BTWN 07Z-14Z. EXPECT SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT AT KBFD AFTER 07Z...AS NW FLOW PULLS DRIER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AT KJST...A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH FROPA TYPICALLY BRINGS A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CIGS...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS SUN MORNING...AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER NW FLOW TAKES HOLD. EXAMINATION OF LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AT KBFD/KJST/KIPT...COINCIDENT WITH PASSAGE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATER SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SUN AFTN. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH AND WEAKENING BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WETTER STORM SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY... EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER STILL QUITE A TONGUE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN WITHIN THE 85H-7H INVERSION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE DRY PER THE LEFTOVER RESIDUAL WEDGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS HAS ACTED TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT WERE CROSSING THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LOBE OF LIFT/SHOWERS ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT JUST WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WITH OVERALL ONLY THE HRRR BRINGING COVERAGE EAST TO AT LEAST THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS PLAN TO KEEP SOME HIGHER LIKELY POPS GOING FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT PER CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THE SHOWERS...WHILE ONLY GOING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY ON...THEN MORE CHANCE NATURE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. SOLID MID DECK CANOPY SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH UNLESS SHOWERS/EVAPORATION INCREASE SO STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR LOWS AT THIS POINT. SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE POOLS BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE FURTHER NORTHEAST. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF NC/VA BORDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT REACHING AN NORFOLK VA TO GSP LINE. THE MODELS START TO BRING JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY CORRIDOR...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF I- 64...HIGHWAY 60 TO RETURN SOME SUN BY 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OVERALL WILL STAY CLOUDY. HIGHS SHOULD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 60SS OUT EAST AND THE NC FOOTHILLS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY. BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES. CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES... PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA. WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE FROM UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY... CEILINGS WERE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH 12Z/8AM. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HELP SATURATE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO REACH MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 10Z/6AM AND 13Z/9AM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN OHIO TO WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST. BY 00Z/8PM THE FRONT WILL BE IN NORTH CAROLINA AND WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. BEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE WITH THE FRONT...AND ONCE THE FRONT PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WAS GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS AHEAD OF IT. THE 25.05Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND CR-HRRR WEAKEN THESE RETURNS AND DISSIPATE THEM THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE RETURNS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 25.00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND STAY TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE DOES LOOK TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A BAND OF WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER OF THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE STARTS TO SPREAD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PEAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE 3 TO 5 UBAR/S RANGE. ALL OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY AS DOES THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF WHILE THE GFS SPREADS SOME LIGHT RAIN IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THEN INCREASE THESE INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING PAST THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 ALMOST ALL THE MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED TO THE SOLUTION FIRST SHOWN BY THE ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING MID WEEK SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BECOMES A CLOSED SYSTEM AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING SOME MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO SPIN UP SOMEPLACE OVER IOWA OR MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING WITH THIS THEN MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW. THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL START COME INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL SHOW 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE MAINTAINING ITSELF INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALL RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY AND TO MAINTAIN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL SHOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 RADAR WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 30 TO 35 KTS AT 2000 FT AGL AS OF 25.0430Z. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH (10 TO 15 KTS IN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET) TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG. IF ANYTHING...WOULD EXPECT A LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KLSE...SO REMOVED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND ADDED BCFG WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AT 200 FT AGL FROM 25.11Z TO 25.13Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM SRN SASK/ALBERTA AND THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER ALBERTA WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TODAY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV BRUSHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 SOUTH. TONIGHT...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWVS NEAR THE REGION PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF 850-600 MB FGEN WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE GREATEST PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY THROUGH SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND AS THE GEM PRODUCES PCPN ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 ...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK EXPECTED... ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IN STRORE WITH BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ENOUGH COOL AIR ON BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO HAVE SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. OUTLOOKS FM CPC INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG EL NINO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN. STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OVER NORTHERN MN INTO LK SUPERIOR BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON MONDAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH RIBBON OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT RAIN OVER AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF CWA. LIGHT RAIN MAY LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. APPEARS KEWEENAW MISSES OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH FARTHER NORTH GEM-REGIONAL WOULD BRING SOME RAIN UP TO HOUGHTON/HANCOCK. DECAYING RIBBON OF MOISTURE LINGERS INTO MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CERTAIN. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CNTRL IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PERSIST. ATTN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNS TO DEEPENING TROUGH FM CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND ALSO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER SCNTRL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DRY LOW-LEVELS DUE TO HIGH IN THE VCNTY TO PROHIBIT MUCH RAIN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS FOCUSES OVER WEST LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MN SO THAT IS WHERE LOW POPS WILL RESIDE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ONE PART OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER CNTRL PLAINS WHILE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOWS OVER MANITOBA AND OVER MO/ILL SHOULD RESULT IN SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MOVE INTO CWA. SUPPOSE ESE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM AS EARLY AS EVENING OVER UPSLOPE OF CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY LOW CHANCE. RAIN SPREADS OVER ALL CWA BY DAYBREAK WED. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF WED AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ONLY INCREASES DUE TO PHASING OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW OVER MO/ILL BECOMES MAIN PLAYER...DEEPENING TO 990-995MB WHILE REACHING SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY WED AND TO AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES OVER LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z THU. DESPITE LOW CROSSING THE CWA ON WED...FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE VIA THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO KEEP DRY SLOT AFFECTS TO A MINIMUM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER IF NOT ONE HALF INCH SHOULD RESULT FM THE SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ALL THE INTERACTIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ALOFT...SPECIFICS IN RAIN TIMING/EXTENT AND AMOUNTS MAY STILL CHANGE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. PROGS OF H85 TEMPS AND 1000- 850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF POINT TO COOLEST AIR STAYING OVER MN AND WI WHILE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPR MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS AT 12Z THU ARE -2C OVER LK SUPERIOR AND ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4C BY 00Z. LK SUPERIOR TEMPS ARE 8- 10C...SO PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THU LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z FRIDAY BUT WITH LESS CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKING AT PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THAT TIME. GFS IS COLDER AND WOULD POINT TO SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND EAST NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF OR GEM IN BRINGING QPF INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. USED CONSENSUS WHICH ONLY HAS SMALL CHANCES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRES TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING AT IWD/CMX AND AT SAW THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD WI AND ALONG THE STALLED LOW PRES TROUGH MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN TO IWD AND SAW BY LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 25 KTS INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
941 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW MONTANA THO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK...PUSHING EAST. OTHER RETURNS WERE COMING FROM BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. WHEN THESE RETURNS MOVED OVER KDIK AND KHEI NO PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. WITH THAT...HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS AND ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE...NOT ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND...A TRACE...THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHER CONCERN IS PATCHY FOG PARTS OF THE NORTH AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MINOT IS A TROUBLE SPOT WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. AREA WEB CAMS SHOW FOG AT MINOT...THE AFB...CARPIO AND WHITE SHIELD...THROUGH GARRISON AND ON OVER TOWARD NEW ROCKFORD. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EXPECT CLEARING AS WIND STIRS UP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSION INCREASES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR WERE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH FOG FORMATION MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FOG EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME OBSERVATION STATIONS. GROUND FOG NOTED HERE IN THE BISMARCK AREA. THUS THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HAS ADDRESSED THIS WELL. OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST EITHER SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS JUST VIRGA MOVING EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF MORNING LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 FOG IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AREAS AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING...SUPPORTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODEL RUNS. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN IN EASTERN MONTANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 13Z...A WINTRY MIX AND/OR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE 4- CORNERS ON MONDAY MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY...DEEPENING AND EMERGING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOLLOWS THE MAIN UPPER LONGWAVE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MONDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG VORT ENERGY IMPULSES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SECOND COLDER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE DRY SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN...KMOT...AND PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 16-17Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE KBIS- KJMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT OF SUNDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPM SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR WERE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH FOG FORMATION MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FOG EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME OBSERVATION STATIONS. GROUND FOG NOTED HERE IN THE BISMARCK AREA. THUS THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HAS ADDRESSED THIS WELL. OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST EITHER SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS JUST VIRGA MOVING EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF MORNING LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 FOG IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AREAS AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING...SUPPORTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODEL RUNS. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN IN EASTERN MONTANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 13Z...A WINTRY MIX AND/OR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE 4- CORNERS ON MONDAY MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY...DEEPENING AND EMERGING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOLLOWS THE MAIN UPPER LONGWAVE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MONDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG VORT ENERGY IMPULSES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SECOND COLDER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE DRY SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KJMS AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
905 AM PDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND EAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER...SIMILAR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST SUN MORNING...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND S OREGON COAST...PUSHING E OVER SW OREGON...WHILE MAKING SLOWER PROGRESS NE OVER NW OREGON. A BAND OF RAIN PRECEDED THE FRONT...DRIVEN BY MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN MID LEVELS AROUND 300K ISENTROPE. OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND TODAY...EARLIEST IN THE S PART OF THE FORECAST...LATER IN THE DAY IN THE N. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SHOWERY PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE. LAYER OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE 10K TO 15K FT DEEP...DEEPEST IN THE N. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE B.C. COAST. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS THIS TROUGH NEARS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET MONDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT MOUNT HOOD... ADAMS...AND SAINT HELENS MAY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW NEAR THEIR PEAKS. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INLAND AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TJ .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN MOVES BACK IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY && .AVIATION...SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 TO 200 NM WEST OF KONP AT 15Z WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED... W ITH THE KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT AT -7.7 MB AS OF 15Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 KT IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS OF THE WEST COLUMBIA GORGE. GRADIENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS NEAR THE WEST COLUMBIA GORGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING THEN EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CIGS. COASTAL AREAS TO SEE INCREASING MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 19Z...THEN A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW-END VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS AFTER 00Z. E WIND 20-30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND OVER THE W END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WHERE GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE LIKELY. MAY BE AREAS OF LLWS WITH S WIND ABOVE 2K FEET. WIND WILL SWITCH TO SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WEISHAAR && .MARINE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 998 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 45N 128W AT 7 AM. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE AND WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS FOR THE SRN WATERS...BUT BASED MORE ON GUSTS THAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS. BUOY 46015...NEAR PORT ORFORD...HAS HAD GUSTS 40-45 KT SINCE 12Z. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE SRN OUTER WATERS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OVER THE SRN INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE COMPONENT CONTINUES OVER THE NRN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL. LATEST NAM AND 13Z RUC SHOW THE LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AT 00Z MON. GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE NORTH. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OREGON NRN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z GFS INDICATING 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. AFTER A LULL MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER SPLITTING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS WED. SHOULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. INCREASING W-SW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 12-15 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATER MON AND TUE...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEAS IN THE 12-15 FT RANGE. WEISHAAR && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
820 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 12Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FCST BASED ON LATEST TEMP AND RADAR TRENDS. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST WEST OF FIG-BGM-AFJ LINE. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN AN ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES. I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING. A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING. PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA. A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WIDE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS AS OF 7 AM. MOST OF THE SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE INVERSION MAKING IT HARD TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS COMING INTO THE AREA AND THAT THE CLOUDS OFF LAKE MI ARE BREAKING UP NOW ACROSS MUCH OF MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFT. 12Z TAFS SENT. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. THU...WINDY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
735 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES. I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING. A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING. PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA. A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WIDE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS AS OF 7 AM. MOST OF THE SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE INVERSION MAKING IT HARD TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS COMING INTO THE AREA AND THAT THE CLOUDS OFF LAKE MI ARE BREAKING UP NOW ACROSS MUCH OF MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFT. 12Z TAFS SENT. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. THU...WINDY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .DISCUSSION...RAIN THIS MORNING REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RAP MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING...AND THE NAM MODEL DEPICTS THIS AS WELL. SO... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS SHORTLY AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT FOR SE TN/SW NC...TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS NRN PLATEAU AND SW VA COUNTIES. THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...WHICH WILL BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINT TEMPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 59 65 56 / 40 50 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 55 65 55 / 40 40 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 55 65 54 / 40 40 70 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 52 63 50 / 50 40 60 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... PER LATEST HRRR MODEL TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF MID STATE WHERE RAINFALL/RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOST PROMINENT. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 12Z AVIATION UPDATE... LIGHT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS AIRPORTS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF PER LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT CKV/BNA BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUED MVFR AT CSV. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHAMBURGER && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
934 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 925 AM EDT SUNDAY... COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GREATEST FROM BUCKINGHAM TO AMHERST TO BECKLEY THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG THE FRONT WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E RIDGING OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z HRRR SHOWS THIS WELL WITH BAND OF SHOWERS SHIFTING SE TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE-NEW RIVER VALLEY-SMITH MTN LAKE- LYNCHBURG CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN LIKELY...AND WILL TAPER TO SLIGHT TO NO CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS BAND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND BACKED OFF A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. STILL QUESTION OF HOW MUCH DRIER AIR CAN GAIN HOLD FROM THE NORTH BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE SUNSHINE COULD WARM TEMPS UP SOME AROUND LYNCHBURG TO LEXINGTON...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE BREAKS SHOWING UP IN THE NC PIEDMONT TOWARD DANVILLE. KEPT FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST MODEL PROJECTION SHOW THE FRONT MOVING INTO NC BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BUT THE 850 MB FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATED A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THAT NORTHERN EDGE. HAVE BROUGHT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT SO HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY... A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NEW YORK...WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA MONDAY. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEDGE WILL PUSH IN DRIER COOLER AIR ON NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERSECT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EDGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME SUN AND COOL AIR TOWARDS THE NORTH...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PEAKING ABOVE 60F MONDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVES FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA TRACK NORTHWARD. ONE WAVE WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS TRACKS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...HEADING TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE WEDGE. EVEN THOUGH THIS WAVE WILL HAVE TROPICAL ORIGINS...THIS WARM RAIN WILL ENHANCE THE WEDGE MAKING TUESDAY A VERY COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BRING A PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS TROPICAL SHORT WAVE IS TRACKING OVER A WEDGE AND LIKE THE OCT 4TH EVENT...MODELS MAY BE OVER DONE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE PROJECTING A 35-50KT EASTERLY JET WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA AND THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT MIX DOWN. MODEL ARE ALSO DISPLAYING A DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDING WHICH IS ANOTHER HINT THAT THESE WINDS WILL NOT MIX DOWN. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WE ARE FORECASTING AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH UP TO TWO INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH OUR RECENT DRY PERIOD...WE SHOULD BE TO HANDLE ALL THIS RAIN WITH NO PROBLEM. HYDRO CONCERNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAYBE HEIGHTEN IF THE WEDGE MANAGES TO ERODE AND ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE FROM UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO SHOWED A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KBCB AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
555 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WAS GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS AHEAD OF IT. THE 25.05Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND CR-HRRR WEAKEN THESE RETURNS AND DISSIPATE THEM THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE RETURNS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 25.00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND STAY TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE DOES LOOK TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A BAND OF WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER OF THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE STARTS TO SPREAD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PEAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE 3 TO 5 UBAR/S RANGE. ALL OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY AS DOES THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF WHILE THE GFS SPREADS SOME LIGHT RAIN IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THEN INCREASE THESE INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING PAST THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 ALMOST ALL THE MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED TO THE SOLUTION FIRST SHOWN BY THE ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING MID WEEK SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BECOMES A CLOSED SYSTEM AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING SOME MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO SPIN UP SOMEPLACE OVER IOWA OR MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING WITH THIS THEN MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW. THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL START COME INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL SHOW 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE MAINTAINING ITSELF INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALL RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY AND TO MAINTAIN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL SHOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED N/S FROM EASTERN MN THROUGH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE MISSISSIPI RIVER VALLEY HAS LED TO SOME LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. LOOK FOR THIS TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING SOME VFR ALTOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY AFFECT KRST/KLSE FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. LOOK FOR THIS MID-CLOUD TO THEN INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM SRN SASK/ALBERTA AND THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER ALBERTA WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TODAY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV BRUSHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 SOUTH. TONIGHT...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWVS NEAR THE REGION PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF 850-600 MB FGEN WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE GREATEST PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY THROUGH SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND AS THE GEM PRODUCES PCPN ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 ...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK EXPECTED... ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IN STRORE WITH BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ENOUGH COOL AIR ON BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO HAVE SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. OUTLOOKS FM CPC INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG EL NINO CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN. STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OVER NORTHERN MN INTO LK SUPERIOR BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON MONDAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH RIBBON OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT RAIN OVER AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF CWA. LIGHT RAIN MAY LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. APPEARS KEWEENAW MISSES OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH FARTHER NORTH GEM-REGIONAL WOULD BRING SOME RAIN UP TO HOUGHTON/HANCOCK. DECAYING RIBBON OF MOISTURE LINGERS INTO MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CERTAIN. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CNTRL IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PERSIST. ATTN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNS TO DEEPENING TROUGH FM CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND ALSO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER SCNTRL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DRY LOW-LEVELS DUE TO HIGH IN THE VCNTY TO PROHIBIT MUCH RAIN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS FOCUSES OVER WEST LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MN SO THAT IS WHERE LOW POPS WILL RESIDE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ONE PART OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER CNTRL PLAINS WHILE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOWS OVER MANITOBA AND OVER MO/ILL SHOULD RESULT IN SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MOVE INTO CWA. SUPPOSE ESE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM AS EARLY AS EVENING OVER UPSLOPE OF CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY LOW CHANCE. RAIN SPREADS OVER ALL CWA BY DAYBREAK WED. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF WED AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ONLY INCREASES DUE TO PHASING OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW OVER MO/ILL BECOMES MAIN PLAYER...DEEPENING TO 990-995MB WHILE REACHING SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY WED AND TO AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES OVER LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z THU. DESPITE LOW CROSSING THE CWA ON WED...FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE VIA THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO KEEP DRY SLOT AFFECTS TO A MINIMUM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER IF NOT ONE HALF INCH SHOULD RESULT FM THE SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN ALL THE INTERACTIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ALOFT...SPECIFICS IN RAIN TIMING/EXTENT AND AMOUNTS MAY STILL CHANGE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. PROGS OF H85 TEMPS AND 1000- 850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF POINT TO COOLEST AIR STAYING OVER MN AND WI WHILE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPR MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS AT 12Z THU ARE -2C OVER LK SUPERIOR AND ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4C BY 00Z. LK SUPERIOR TEMPS ARE 8- 10C...SO PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THU. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THU LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z FRIDAY BUT WITH LESS CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKING AT PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THAT TIME. GFS IS COLDER AND WOULD POINT TO SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND EAST NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF OR GEM IN BRINGING QPF INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. USED CONSENSUS WHICH ONLY HAS SMALL CHANCES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA AND CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR THERE LATE TONIGHT. AT KCMX...WILL GO VFR SHORTLY AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF THEM. FOR KSAW...MVFR CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT WILL BE STUBBORN TO LEAVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL GO LIGHT ENOUGH BY THIS EVENING TO DISSIPATE THE MVFR DECK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KSAW LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 25 KTS INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 THE FOG WAS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND HAD LIFTED IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FROM JUST NORTH OF DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST SOUTH HALF. UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW MONTANA THO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK...PUSHING EAST. OTHER RETURNS WERE COMING FROM BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. WHEN THESE RETURNS MOVED OVER KDIK AND KHEI NO PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. WITH THAT...HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS AND ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE...NOT ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND...A TRACE...THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHER CONCERN IS PATCHY FOG PARTS OF THE NORTH AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MINOT IS A TROUBLE SPOT WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. AREA WEB CAMS SHOW FOG AT MINOT...THE AFB...CARPIO AND WHITE SHIELD...THROUGH GARRISON AND ON OVER TOWARD NEW ROCKFORD. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EXPECT CLEARING AS WIND STIRS UP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSION INCREASES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR WERE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH FOG FORMATION MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FOG EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME OBSERVATION STATIONS. GROUND FOG NOTED HERE IN THE BISMARCK AREA. THUS THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HAS ADDRESSED THIS WELL. OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST EITHER SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS JUST VIRGA MOVING EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF MORNING LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 FOG IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AREAS AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING...SUPPORTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODEL RUNS. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN IN EASTERN MONTANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 13Z...A WINTRY MIX AND/OR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE 4- CORNERS ON MONDAY MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY...DEEPENING AND EMERGING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOLLOWS THE MAIN UPPER LONGWAVE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MONDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG VORT ENERGY IMPULSES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SECOND COLDER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE DRY SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN...KMOT...NORTH DAKOTA WAS LIFTING AT OF 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT OF SUNDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPM SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN HEADLINE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE CONTINUED RAINS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL INTERACTION... CURRENTLY...A STRONG AND COMPACT SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH WITH TIME. ZONAL BUT BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AS A STRONG S/W WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER...MORE FOCUSED LIFT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE DIURNAL CURVE REMAINS NEARLY FLAT. IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS DID NOT GET OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING HOW THE DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT PLAYS OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE THAT A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST US ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD STUNT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE GULF LOW PRESSURE. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT PRECIP FROM SPREADING TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG GRADIENT IN PRECIP TOTALS ON MONDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EXITS...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW PRESSURE TO RESUME ITS PROGRESS NORTH WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND EVENTUALLY THE MID-SOUTH. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEAK. THE INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW EJECTING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PERIOD. IN THE LONG-TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MUCH MORE ACTIVE. AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG EQUATORWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...INDUCING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE LOW SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP EAST. FOR THIS REASON...PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT REASONABLY LOW UNTIL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM DECREASES. TVT && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVERRIDES A NEARLY SATURATED AND COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST INVERSION. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT RAINFALL TO CONTRACT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEARER THE APPROACHING TROPICAL LOW. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO MVFR/ISOLATED VFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. 15Z HRRR SHOWS IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...WHILE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH DIMINISHING RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES FOR MEM WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY JUST AFTER THE 18Z TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH OUTER BOUND RAINFALL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL LOW. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOME PACKING OF 850 MB ISOTHERMS OVER ERN KY AND W VA...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES OF SW VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISBY AT LONESOME PINE (LNP). HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL APPEARED TO BE DISSIPATING ACROSS ERN KY...WITH LATEST RAP MODEL RUN NOT PRODUCING MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...RAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS THEN NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS NORTH FROM THE LA-MS COAST. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE E-SE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED IN THE RAIN AMOUNT AND TEMP GRIDS FOR THOSE PERIODS. MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MINOR MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT...WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM SHOULD NOT POSE ANY CONCERNS. THE COOLER MAV/GFS MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED BETTER FOR AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS NOT A FACTOR. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR MOS MINS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WITH THE CHANGING SEASONS THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED INCREASING THE FREQUENCY OF STORM SYSTEM PASSAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM AND DEEP SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR THIS ACTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME GROUP WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN RISE EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. A DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE EVER STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES...ANOTHER AMPLIFIED SYSTEM BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SATURDAY AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BE ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 64 56 62 / 60 80 80 100 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 64 54 63 / 40 70 80 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 64 55 61 / 30 70 80 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 63 51 61 / 30 60 70 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1259 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015/ UPDATE... TWO RELATIVELY MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE DIURNAL CURVES HAVE BEEN NEARLY FLAT THIS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THIS REGION...PROGRESSING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AREA-WIDE. THERE SIMPLY IS NOT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CARRYING THIS THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY ARRIVED. TVT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015/ DISCUSSION... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH AREA EARLIER ON SATURDAY IS NOW JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER EAST OR SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO SPREAD MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT MORE RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. RAINY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ON TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL START TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE RAINY PERIOD WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS MEAN ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. ARS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVERRIDES A NEARLY SATURATED AND COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST INVERSION. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT RAINFALL TO CONTRACT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEARER THE APPROACHING TROPICAL LOW. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO MVFR/ISOLATED VFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. 15Z HRRR SHOWS IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...WHILE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH DIMINISHING RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES FOR MEM WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY JUST AFTER THE 18Z TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH OUTER BOUND RAINFALL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL LOW. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WAS GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS AHEAD OF IT. THE 25.05Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND CR-HRRR WEAKEN THESE RETURNS AND DISSIPATE THEM THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE RETURNS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE SURFACE...SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 25.00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND STAY TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE DOES LOOK TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A BAND OF WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER OF THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE STARTS TO SPREAD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PEAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE 3 TO 5 UBAR/S RANGE. ALL OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY AS DOES THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF WHILE THE GFS SPREADS SOME LIGHT RAIN IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THEN INCREASE THESE INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING PAST THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 ALMOST ALL THE MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED TO THE SOLUTION FIRST SHOWN BY THE ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING MID WEEK SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BECOMES A CLOSED SYSTEM AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING SOME MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO SPIN UP SOMEPLACE OVER IOWA OR MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING WITH THIS THEN MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW. THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL START COME INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL SHOW 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE MAINTAINING ITSELF INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALL RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY AND TO MAINTAIN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL SHOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 1ZZ MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015 MAIN MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD...WITH LOWER CIGS AND ANY SHRA MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THE MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE MID LEVEL WITH CLOUDS/CIGS AROUND THE 10K FT LEVEL. THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG...AND LEFT TAFS AS P6SM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WEAKER GRADIENTS THRU TONIGHT/MON MORNING...FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 10KT RANGE THIS PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION.....RRS