Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
951 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.UPDATE...
816 PM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D
REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION
IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO
DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR
SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS
CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO...
WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.
WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT
AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND
DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST
EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER
AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT
THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION
AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE
BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS
EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA
INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF
THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A
PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN
SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL
IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE
PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR CIGS INTO MID EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
MID EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND CONDITIONS GOING VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE
LIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERLY BY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH-ISH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
237 PM CDT
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT
PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF
PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO
LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
816 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.UPDATE...
816 PM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D
REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION
IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO
DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR
SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS
CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO...
WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.
WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT
AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND
DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST
EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER
AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT
THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION
AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE
BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS
EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA
INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF
THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A
PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN
SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL
IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE
PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* MVFR CIGS INTO MID EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
MID EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND CONDITIONS GOING VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE
LIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERLY BY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH-ISH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
237 PM CDT
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT
PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF
PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO
LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
605 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER
AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT
THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION
AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE
BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS
EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURICANE PATRICIA
INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF
THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A
PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN
SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL
IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE
PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* MVFR CIGS INTO MID EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
MID EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND CONDITIONS GOING VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE
LIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERLY BY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH-ISH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
237 PM CDT
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT
PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF
PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO
LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL
DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AT BEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE
FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO
THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT
OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB
JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING.
TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF
FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION.
THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA.
WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA.
THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY.
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY.
MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR
MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE HOLDING THINGS DRY FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY
AS THE GULF OPENS UP AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH...AND BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
THUS HAVE KEPT THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CAN HOLD TRUE SHOULD SEE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS/ ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DID MAKE
SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS IS DECREASING THE OVERALL SPEEDS IN THE AVERAGED
SOLUTION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 232100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARRIVING
TONIGHT. RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE SITES TONIGHT
ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR TO THE SITES STARTING AFTER 3Z IN THE
WEST AND AROUND 6Z AT KIND AND KBMG AND LASTING AT EACH SITE FOR
AROUND 4-6 HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-13 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. IFR CEILINGS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MORNING BUT
TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL
DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AT BEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE
FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO
THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT
OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB
JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING.
TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF
FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION.
THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA.
WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA.
THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY.
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY.
MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR
MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE HOLDING THINGS DRY FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY
AS THE GULF OPENS UP AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH...AND BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
THUS HAVE KEPT THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CAN HOLD TRUE SHOULD SEE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS/ ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DID MAKE
SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS IS DECREASING THE OVERALL SPEEDS IN THE AVERAGED
SOLUTION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARRIVING
TONIGHT. RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE SITES TONIGHT
ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR TO THE SITES STARTING AFTER 3Z IN THE
WEST AND AROUND 6Z AT KIND AND KBMG AND LASTING AT EACH SITE FOR
AROUND 4-6 HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-13 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. IFR CEILINGS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MORNING BUT
TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 WAVE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA. THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE 00Z
SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA
AFTER THIS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TO THE WEST...A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NE. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FIRING THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS WITH THE
RAIN FALLING AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE OF THIS AFD.
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH THIS MAY MOVE
THE WARM FRONT NORTH SLIGHTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DECREASING. THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS
OUT TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OUR
CWA. HIRES CAMS...INCLUDING CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT
THIS NOTION AS WELL. STILL DECIDED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WARM FRONT
MOVEMENT AND STORMS OUT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A STRONG
STORM IF THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT PULL NORTH AND WE HAVE BACKED SFC
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM WILL ACTUALLY HOLD
STEADY OR BE WARMING AS THE WARM SECTOR ENTRENCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IF THE WARM
LIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOOKS TO BE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR. MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL STILL BE CLOUDY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
A GORGEOUS FALL SATURDAY. THE NAM DOES HAVE WRAPAROUND PRECIP SAT
AM....I DID NOT BUY THIS AS THE NAM CURRENTLY DOES NOT HANDLE THE
CURRENT PRECIP WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
COOLER WITH MOSTLY NEAR SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN EVENT IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXACT TIMING. THE PHASING OF
MOISTURE...SOME FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS HEAVIER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURE MANY DAYS WITH FAIR SKIES
MINS MAY NEED LOWERING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BASED ON PERSISTENCE
THE PAST FEW TO SEVERAL WEEKS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR WITH MOISTURE A
BIT OVERDONE WITH CURRENT SYSTEM. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND CLOSEST
SOLUTIONS UPSTREAM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND OF HI-RES ECMWF/UKMET MIX
WITH GFS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TYPICAL COOL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65 AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS SEEING MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 4S0 AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POOR CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS AND
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE SUGGESTED AS PHASING OF ENERGY WITH
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER KNOWN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCAL
OFFICE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WHAT HI-RES ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORTS WITH
IS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF .25 TO 75 INCHES WITH 1 PLUS INCHES VERY
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF OF
MEXICO DERIVED FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" STREAMING AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVER UPPER MIDWEST. HI/LO
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
FRIDAY...MUCH COLDER AND BREEZY TO WINDY ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS PROBABLY BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AT
LEAST 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO HIGH. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AM AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
AVIATION FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS RATHER PESSIMISTIC.
EXPECT RA...SOMETIMES MODERATE TO LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AT EACH TAF SITE IN THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS. ONCE
THIS CLEARS...IFR AND LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WENT TO LOW
END IFR CIGS INSTEAD OF LIFR BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIFE
OCCURRING. AFTER THIS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH NW
WINDS. FROPA COULD HAVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT RIGHT NOW
I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. FUTURE TAF
AMENDMENTS FOR FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THIS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY BEFORE BEING CAPTURED BY THE WESTERLY AND TAKEN EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER IOWA THIS MORNING
FROM A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA ALONG WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL. WILL SEE A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY SLOT. THIS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
ENDING THE HEAVIER PCPN THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO SEE DEFORMATION AREA MOVE BACK
INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A CARROLL TO ALGONA LINE. THE
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY BUT
NOTHING VERY STRONG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE RAPID OVERSPREADING OF THE
AREA FROM THE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIPITATION TREND FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND AGAIN FOR MID WEEK. FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN CWA ALONG BAND OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE
TRENDED THIS WAY ATTM. AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AND MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
HAVE ENDED BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN
BEHIND. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND SYSTEM...THOUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR NORMAL.
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF
SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT. UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE ACROSS PACNW AND PUSH EAST.
HOWEVER...GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF THE OUTLIER A BIT FASTER AND
BRINGING SURFACE LOW NORTH FROM GULF REGION...WHILE OTHER MODELS
KEEP SYSTEM SOUTH OF IOWA. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO FAVOR ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND KEEPS SURFACE LOW FURTHER
SOUTH THOUGH STILL ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO IOWA. HAVE
CONTINUED THEREFORE TO TREND AWAY FROM GFS TOWARDS ECMWF WITH
SYSTEM...THEREFORE KEEPING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST FOR END OF PERIOD WITH ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING IN BEHIND.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME
FRIDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR FOG/MIST/RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO THE INCOMING RAIN WILL BE FROM 15-22Z FRIDAY. WITH
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECTING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS WITH ATTENTION ON
WIDESPREAD ARC OF VARIED CONVECTION FROM OK THROUGH KS INTO CO/NE
BORDER. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY KINEMATICS AT
THE MOMENT WITH NOTED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN CO UPPER LOW AND
SUB- TROPICAL STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST. LOBE OF
DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NM/TX/CO/KS PV ANOMALY AND SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING. THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN PUSH NORTH.
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING CONTRIBUTION WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RATHER THAN BAROCLINICITY. THIS IS REALIZED BY CURRENT OK THETA-E
ADVECTION MAX REACHING AT LEAST IA/MO BORDER BY 12Z. HAVE BROUGHT
POPS THROUGH EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND
MAINLY TO BLEND INTO NEIGHBORS AS 300K/305K PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW THROUGH THAT TIME...AND MOST HI RES MODELS
SUGGEST A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING JUST
A TOUCH OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMP WISE...RAW MODELS SUGGEST AT
OR ABOVE THE WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
SIMILAR CONCERNS TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT 36 HOURS. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SECOND SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE INTEGRATED INTO THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. THOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST
WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE
INSTABILITY LESSENS TOWARD MIDDAY ACROSS THE WEST WHILE CONTINUING
EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON...DAY TIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. HAVE
REINTRODUCED A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...WITH SOME RECOVERY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF LESSENING OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE
INSOLATION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
TOWARD NORMALS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MORE COMMON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS LOWS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS WELL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. AFTER A TRANQUIL WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AGAIN. OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO FESTER BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO. THE 00Z PACKAGES HAVE TRENDED TO
DISCOUNT THE PHASING OF THE THREE WAVES IN QUESTION WHILE THE 12Z
PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY THE EURO...HAS CONTINUED TO PHASE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND GULF SYSTEM INTO A STRONG FALL
CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. TODAYS
12Z RUN IS NO EXCEPTION. GENERALLY...MODEL BLENDS/PREVIOUS
PACKAGES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK SO
WILL NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER WITH 50S AND POSSIBLE 40S FOR HIGHS
BY THURSDAY AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO 40S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL OPT TO NOT DELVE INTO THE DETAILS OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. IN EITHER CASE WITH THE GFS OR EURO
SOLUTIONS...THE COLDER TEMPS/INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD QUICKLY
DEPART BY DAY7/DAY8 AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME
FRIDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR FOG/MIST/RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO THE INCOMING RAIN WILL BE FROM 15-22Z FRIDAY. WITH
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECTING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
320 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING
DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS IN PLACE3 OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE
LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS AND
SKY COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING. BL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE
EAST...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT LOWER TD VALUES
IN THE 30S. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH A
FREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. I
DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FURTHER EAST BASED ON
CURRENT TD/WIND FORECAST. THESE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT QUITE AS
CERTAIN AS WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS
TODAY...THOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. I WOULD EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF
INCREASING THEN DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES ON THE WEST COAST AROUND 00Z MONDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY MORNING A THICK
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST TOWARD SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/GEM A BIT FASTER (COMPARED TO
ECMWF) BRINGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL IMPACT HOW FAST CLEARING DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS/GEM MODELS. FOR
TUESDAY UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS ITS PARENT CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT BEFORE THAT POSSIBLY DEAL WITH SOME CLOUDINESS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S WEST TO AROUND 40 FAR EAST.
WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY EAST IN THE MORNING WITH A RAPID CLEARING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA SO HAVE REMOVED PREVIOUS PRECIP MENTION.
NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY QUICKLY BECOMING
LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND FREEZE HILITES ARE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...GFS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLES BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...QUITE DIFFERENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODELS WHICH HAD AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THE ECMWF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE
WITH THAT THOUGHT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CURRENTLY
THINKING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE THINGS DRY
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROCEDURE LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
ADVERTISES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC. ECWMF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTRY...FAR DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WILL COME THE NEED TO
ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN
THE LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE UPPER AND SFC PATTERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2500-2800 KFT (MVFR) HAS
DEVELOPED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK LATE THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED BY GUIDANCE VERY WELL...THOUGH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AT LEAST SHOWS A SIGNAL THAT ROUGHLY MATCHES CURRENT
EXTENT ON SATELLITE. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THIS LAYER LIFTING TO
ABOVE 3000 KFT AND THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. I COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT KMCK UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BASED
ON UPSTREAM EXTENT ON SATELLITE/OBS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CLEARING
TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING/TRENDS ON
SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS.
AS EXPECTED WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AND 30-35KT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER
00Z WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING
DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS IN PLACE3 OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE
LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS AND
SKY COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING. BL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE
EAST...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT LOWER TD VALUES
IN THE 30S. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH A
FREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. I
DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FURTHER EAST BASED ON
CURRENT TD/WIND FORECAST. THESE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT QUITE AS
CERTAIN AS WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS
TODAY...THOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. I WOULD EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. WITH DRY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA THERE
WILL BE ALMOST NO CLOUDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WILL BE A VERY NICE FALL DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
FROST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS FAR AS DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT BUT THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING.
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLED
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEK`S LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS
PROVIDED THESE PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT IS TOUGH TO TALK WITH CONFIDENCE
ON WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL.
INSTEAD OF A MORNING PASSAGE TUESDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
NOT REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED FOR
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WERE NUDGED UP
SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT...
PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY
POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT ANY WINTRY MENTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY WORTH INSERTING INTO THE FORECAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS NO LONGER
APPEAR RIPE FOR A FREEZE.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY MORNING IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR OBSERVING
WIDESPREAD FROST AND...FOR SOME LOCATIONS...A HARD FREEZE. MAINTAIN
THOUGHT THAT TWO METER TEMPERATURE AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT
CAPTURING THESE POTENTIAL COLD CONDITIONS BUT THE GUIDANCE DID DROP
FOR THIS FORECAST RUN.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT BUT DUE TO THE
INCONSISTENT NATURE OF GUIDANCE RECENTLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN MENTIONING ANY TIMING OR
AMOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2500-2800 KFT (MVFR) HAS
DEVELOPED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK LATE THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED BY GUIDANCE VERY WELL...THOUGH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AT LEAST SHOWS A SIGNAL THAT ROUGHLY MATCHES CURRENT
EXTENT ON SATELLITE. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THIS LAYER LIFTING TO
ABOVE 3000 KFT AND THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. I COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT KMCK UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BASED
ON UPSTREAM EXTENT ON SATELLITE/OBS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CLEARING
TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING/TRENDS ON
SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS.
AS EXPECTED WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AND 30-35KT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER
00Z WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL/RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR
APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS
WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND
ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER
THETA-E LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW MUCAPE FIELDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
EVERYWHERE...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE BTWN H85 AND H7.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLED
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEK`S LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS
PROVIDED THESE PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT IS TOUGH TO TALK WITH CONFIDENCE
ON WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL.
INSTEAD OF A MORNING PASSAGE TUESDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
NOT REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED FOR
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WERE NUDGED UP
SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT...
PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY
POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT ANY WINTRY MENTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY WORTH INSERTING INTO THE FORECAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS NO LONGER
APPEAR RIPE FOR A FREEZE.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY MORNING IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR OBSERVING
WIDESPREAD FROST AND...FOR SOME LOCATIONS...A HARD FREEZE. MAINTAIN
THOUGHT THAT TWO METER TEMPERATURE AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT
CAPTURING THESE POTENTIAL COLD CONDITIONS BUT THE GUIDANCE DID DROP
FOR THIS FORECAST RUN.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT BUT DUE TO THE
INCONSISTENT NATURE OF GUIDANCE RECENTLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN MENTIONING ANY TIMING OR
AMOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH AS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE KS AND CO BORDER.
WHILE PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER...THINK THE UPSTREAM LOWER TDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS AT KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-027-041.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR
APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS
WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND
ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER
THETA-E LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW MUCAPE FIELDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
EVERYWHERE...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE BTWN H85 AND H7.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON SATURDAY
LOTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SUNSET. THESE HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER
30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AS A 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/FRONT. 850-500MB LAYER RATHER
DRY AND POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL IT WOULD BE
AROUND/BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT
SKY COVER FORECAST WITH THE GFS THE DRIER MODEL...ECMWF THE
WETTEST/MORE MOIST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SFC
HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND FOCUS
WILL BE ON LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL AIM FOR LOW TO MID 30S WITH A
CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH AS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE KS AND CO BORDER.
WHILE PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER...THINK THE UPSTREAM LOWER TDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS AT KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND SEASONAL FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WHILE HOURLY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST RAP AND HRRR
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOO DRY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...TIGHTENING UP SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. HYDROLAPSE
VIA LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO ESCAPE FOR SURFACE-BASED
MOISTURE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE BET
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHER THEN THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AND
INCREASING HOURLY DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY FRIDAY WITH INSOLATION
AND DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR...TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES FROM EAST TO WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...BUT PRECIP PROBS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...CUMULATING IN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES
BY EVE. MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRECIP
TIMING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY TEMPS WERE THUS
FORECAST NEAR THE AVERAGES GIVEN LINGERING PRECIP...CLOUD
COVER...AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARRED BY ONLY LCL MVFR VSBY NR PORTS
SOUTH OF PIT LATE THIS EVE AS A CDFNT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACRS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR SKY/VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A SATURDAY CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1055 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE REGION...AS IS
ALL WIDESPREAD SIGNFICANT RAINFALL. POST-SYSTEM CAA JUST ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF A TOUCH OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN AN OTHERWISE RATHER
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. JUST ENOUGH LAKE SUPPORT TO KICK OFF SOME
DRIZZLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD COME TO
AND END AS DRYING INCREASES (CLEAR SKIES ALREADY PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN). CLOUD TRENDS A TOUGHER CALL. PER UPSTREAM
TRENDS/SATELLITE DATA...GOTTA BELIEVE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
WILL BE REALIZED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AND NOT COMPLETELY
IMPOSSIBLE SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY FOR A TIME BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS REACHED ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NW LWR MICHIGAN. MAIN COLD FRONT IS HOT ON
ITS HEELS... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GREEN BAY INTO S CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED NE OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IS MOVING THRU N CENTRAL
AND NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. RAP13
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DEVELOPING RIGHT
ALONG THIS LINE BEFORE IT CLEARS NE LWR MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. WILL
CERTAINLY KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR
MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF SVR STORMS. THEREAFTER...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN.
CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO NRN MICHIGAN TO ACTIVATE THE
LAKES. DELTA T`S INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL LIMIT LAKE-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FOR
LOCATIONS TARGETED BY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL ADD THIS TO THE
FORECAST THRU AROUND 09Z. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY OVERCOMING ANY LAKE
PRECIP BY THIS TIME...AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER 09Z.
BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL NOT BE
WITHOUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE...JUXTAPOSED WITH RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE OF
PWAT VALUES OF ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH...WILL PRODUCE CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF M-
72 AS OF RIGHT NOW. EXPECT DECREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY...BUT THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKING IT/S WAY
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WILL BEGIN VEERING TO EASTERLY TUESDAY
AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
AT UPPER LVLS...500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK...WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S SATURDAY...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL LIFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WED BEFORE EXITING INTO
QUEBEC THURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE RAIN ACRS NRN MI
WEDNESDAY...MIXING WITH SNOW THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE
STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LAST
BAND OF DEFORMATION SHOWERS RAPIDLY PIVOTING EAST IN THE PROCESS.
STILL PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST...AND SUSPECT
THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE TANKS LATER TONIGHT AS JUST COLD ENOUGH AIR TO ENTICE A
LAKE RESPONSE IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MITIGATED BY AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS. REALLY DO BELIEVE THIS DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT...BRINGING A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OF SCT
CIGS. SECONDARY MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT POCKET
OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CROSSES THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH TEND TO THINK DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CIGS IN
VFR RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR
KPLN/KAPN...BUT CONFIDENCE SIMPLY MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MICHIGAN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS REACHED ERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NW LWR MICHIGAN. MAIN COLD FRONT IS HOT ON
ITS HEELS... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GREEN BAY INTO S CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED NE OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER IS MOVING THRU N CENTRAL
AND NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. RAP13
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DEVELOPING RIGHT
ALONG THIS LINE BEFORE IT CLEARS NE LWR MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. WILL
CERTAINLY KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR
MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF SVR STORMS. THEREAFTER...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN.
CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO NRN MICHIGAN TO ACTIVATE THE
LAKES. DELTA T`S INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL LIMIT LAKE-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FOR
LOCATIONS TARGETED BY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL ADD THIS TO THE
FORECAST THRU AROUND 09Z. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY OVERCOMING ANY LAKE
PRECIP BY THIS TIME...AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER 09Z.
BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL NOT BE
WITHOUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE...JUXTAPOSED WITH RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE OF
PWAT VALUES OF ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH...WILL PRODUCE CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF M-
72 AS OF RIGHT NOW. EXPECT DECREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY...BUT THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKING IT/S WAY
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN WILL BEGIN VEERING TO EASTERLY TUESDAY
AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
AT UPPER LVLS...500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK...WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S SATURDAY...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL LIFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WED BEFORE EXITING INTO
QUEBEC THURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE RAIN ACRS NRN MI
WEDNESDAY...MIXING WITH SNOW THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE
STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LAST
BAND OF DEFORMATION SHOWERS RAPIDLY PIVOTING EAST IN THE PROCESS.
STILL PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING BACK TO THE WEST...AND SUSPECT
THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE TANKS LATER TONIGHT AS JUST COLD ENOUGH AIR TO ENTICE A
LAKE RESPONSE IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MITIGATED BY AN INCREASINGLY
DRY AIRMASS. REALLY DO BELIEVE THIS DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT...BRINGING A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OF SCT
CIGS. SECONDARY MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT POCKET
OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CROSSES THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH TEND TO THINK DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CIGS IN
VFR RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR
KPLN/KAPN...BUT CONFIDENCE SIMPLY MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MICHIGAN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ346.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
628 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF OUR
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT IS LOW DUE MAINLY
TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ATTM OFF TO OUR
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHC FOR AN ISOLATED STORM MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA JUST
PRIOR TO FROPA... BUT GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING THE RELATIVELY BETTER
CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WILL BE EAST/SE OF OUR FCST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR. FAIR WX WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW
WHICH WOULD GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND MAYBE MORE OF
RAIN. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY THE RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE. THE FIRST IS ON MONDAY
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX TO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL BEFORE THE
SHOWERS END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
CIGS LOWER. SCATTEERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OUR EASTERNMOST
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO 30 KTS
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN
THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF
THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE
COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A
RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK
REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF OUR
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT IS LOW DUE MAINLY
TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ATTM OFF TO OUR
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHC FOR AN ISOLATED STORM MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA JUST
PRIOR TO FROPA... BUT GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING THE RELATIVELY BETTER
CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WILL BE EAST/SE OF OUR FCST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR. FAIR WX WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW
WHICH WOULD GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND MAYBE MORE OF
RAIN. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY THE RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE. THE FIRST IS ON MONDAY
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX TO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL BEFORE THE
SHOWERS END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN CONDITIONS
WILL GO DOWN TO MVR AND IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN BY 06Z. A PERIOD OF
LIFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY
18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO 30 KTS
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN
THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF
THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE
COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A
RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK
REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL DRAW GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS
TO HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS A
RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN IN MO...TRACKING NORTHEAST. BASED ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE RAIN WOULD MOVE INTO MI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT IS BATTLING A DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THUS MOST MODELS KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP IT DRY FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THE HIGH RES EURO WOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING IN BEFORE 00Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN...NOT MUCH IS THERE. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH A HIGH
PWAT AIRMASS ARRIVING. EVEN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS TO ME THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
EXPANDING AS THEY MOVE IN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM. WHILE THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY 12Z SAT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOME INSTABILITY
PERSISTS. THUS WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
EARLY ON...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET...BUT THEN MORE WET
WEATHER APPEARS A GOOD BET TOWARD MID WEEK.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE WNW WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH. EXPECT COOL AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS TX. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE BRINGING IT NORTH INTO MI. THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SOUTHERLY STREAM
PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY AND BRINGING A DECENT AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TOWARD MICHIGAN BY WED. WITH THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION THIS COULD BE A VERY WET SYSTEM FOR SW LOWER. ADDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR WED AS WE SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER THE CHILLY START TO THE WEEK READINGS WILL
MODERATE INTO MID WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD TURN
COLDER THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND NW FLOW RETURNS. EVEN
SO...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN CONDITIONS
WILL GO DOWN TO MVR AND IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN BY 06Z. A PERIOD OF
LIFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY
18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE WIND WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATER TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER OVER TIME EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING.
BASED ON THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS SHOULD
DEVELOP. WILL BE GOING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND START IT UP
00Z SAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WIND TODAY AS VALUES OVER 25
KNOTS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN
THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF
THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE
COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A
RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK
REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM OF COURSE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WAS POSITIONED
IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...REACHING
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO LESS THAN
1K FEET AS THIS LOW APPROACHES...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CLOSE VICINITY
TO THE FRONT /AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/.
THE FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN MN AROUND 10PM...THE TWIN CITIES
AROUND 2AM...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND 4AM. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
MARKEDLY IN SPEEDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BASICALLY END BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...AND THE LOW
STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING IN WESTERN
MN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...MID DAY FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE GREATER EAU CLAIRE AREA. WITH THIS SETUP...LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE MORNING WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM IN TO THE
50S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD WILL FOLLOW
THE RAIN OF TDA INTO TNGT AS A PAIR OF HIGH PRES AREAS...
SEPARATED BY A WEAK CDFNT...WILL BREEZE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HIGH PRES AREA WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS ON ITS WAY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS
WITH THE SECOND CENTERED OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA ON ITS WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEAK CDFNT IN BETWEEN MAY BRING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY EVEN A MIX OF -RA/-SN...TO W-CENTRAL WI SUN
NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN TO
BRING IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY FROM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S OVER THE WEEKEND TO
THE LWR-MID 50S WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE LWR-MID 30S.
TUE THROUGH FRI...A SHARP UPR LVL TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE COMING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES MON-TUE...DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. THIS TROF WILL ALLOW A LOW PRES SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BRING IT INTO THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS IN THE LATE TUE THRU LATE WED. IN ADDITION...MODELS
DEPICT A CLOSED-OFF UPR LVL LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROF WHICH
WILL HELP WITH PRECIP GENERATION ACRS THE REGION SO A FAIRLY DAMP
TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION.
NOT LOOKING FOR AN OVERABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT MORE OF THE
TYPICAL MID-FALL COOL/DAMP/SHOWERY TYPE OF WX. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME -RA/-SN MIXTURE IN CENTRAL MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI AROUND
SUNRISE EARLY WED MRNG BUT OTHERWISE THE PRECIP WILL COME AS -RA.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THEN A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BOTH AS
THE SFC AND ALOFT LOOKS TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
NEXT WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AS HIGHS DIP INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE TUE-WED SYSTEM THEN RECOVER
TO THE 50S BY FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STEADY STREAM OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WESTERN MN HAS SEEN MOST OF THIS BATCH
OF RAIN COME TO AN END...BUT WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AS IT
DRAWS NEAR...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...JUST A MATTER
OF TIMING THESE CONDITIONS IN...WHICH FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
BASED ON THE HRRR CONSISTENCY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
MARKEDLY WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAU CLAIRE.
KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE AIRPORT BY 6PM. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND UPDATE IF THIS
TIME CHANGES AT ALL. IN TERMS OF THE WIND SHIFT
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL THE
FRONT ARRIVES...SO EXPECT A TURN FROM SE TO NW TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AROUND 07-08Z. ONCE THE WIND TURNS NW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTINESS. CEILINGS FINALLY BREAK UP
MID DAY TOMORROW...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
INTERESTING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION.
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WELL
DEFINED DRY SLOT ARCHING BASICALLY SOUTH/WEST OF I-94/35 OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AT FIRST GLANCE...ONE MAY THINK THAT THE
PRECIP IS OVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE.
THE DRYSLOT IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS
MERELY A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. IT IS NOT A RESULT OF THE CYCLONE
OCCLUDING...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND MOISTURE PROFILES THAT LEAN WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND BRING RAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ACTUAL PRECIP IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN THIS APPARENT DRYSLOT REGION. SPC
MESOANALYSIS IDENTIFIES A LARGE AREA OF H850 TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF BANDED PRECIP LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE A
NORTHWARD AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHEAST BEFORE GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH AN INCH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...SO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHERWISE UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL... THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH BRIEF
RIDGING AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK GIVING WAY TO A HEALTHY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS AFTER THE WEEKEND... BUT IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OVER ALL ON THE BIG PICTURE... SO A CONSENSUS
APPROACH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE A BIT OF
LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST... BUT OTHERWISE
WE/LL HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO ROBUST RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE HELPING TO DEVELOP THAT SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO OUR
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY... WITH TUESDAY NIGHT
CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVER THE AREA. WE COULD WIND UP BEING SPLIT BY PCPN TO OUR NORTH
AND SOUTH... AS THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEAKENS AND A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STEADY STREAM OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WESTERN MN HAS SEEN MOST OF THIS BATCH
OF RAIN COME TO AN END...BUT WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AS IT
DRAWS NEAR...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...JUST A MATTER
OF TIMING THESE CONDITIONS IN...WHICH FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
BASED ON THE HRRR CONSISTENCY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
MARKEDLY WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAU CLAIRE.
KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE AIRPORT BY 6PM. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND UPDATE IF THIS
TIME CHANGES AT ALL. IN TERMS OF THE WIND SHIFT
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL THE
FRONT ARRIVES...SO EXPECT A TURN FROM SE TO NW TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AROUND 07-08Z. ONCE THE WIND TURNS NW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTINESS. CEILINGS FINALLY BREAK UP
MID DAY TOMORROW...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2015
Showers were moving northeastward into portions of central and
southeast MO early this morning. This activity was associated with
temperature and moisture advection on the nose of a 30-40 kt
southerly low level jet ahead of an approaching upper level
trough, low over the northern Plains. This precipitation will
spread northeastward through most of the forecast area during the
morning hours. Will get additional development this afternoon as
southwest flow shortwaves move through the area ahead of the upper
level trough and initiate convection within deep moisture over
the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday due
to the cloud cover and precipitation, but still above normal with
southerly low level flow.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2015
Additional, mainly scattered convection is expected tonight and
Saturday as a cold front moves slowly southeastward through our
forecast area late tonight and Saturday as the upper level trough
weakens as it moves northeastward through the northern Plains and
into the Great Lakes region. The greatest threat for convection on
Saturday will be across southeast MO and southwest IL, from STL
south and east. Most of the precipitation will shift south-
southeast of our forecast area by Saturday night as a surface
ridge builds southeastward into our area with low level cold air
advection and drying. Temperatures will be cooler Saturday night,
albeit near normal for late October. The next threat for rain may
begin as early as Monday night as the GFS model spreads precipitation
northward into our area north of a tropical low coming up from TX
and the Gulf Coast region. The ECMWF model keeps this low and its
associated precipitation south of the forecast area, but does
bring rain back into the area by Tuesday night as a deep upper
level trough approaches along with its associated cold front. The
GFS model also has a deepening upper level trough, low which will
bring potentially significant and widespread rainfall amounts to
our area through at least Wednesday followed by colder conditions
for the end of the extended forecast.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Large rain area stretching from west central MO into ne TX will
continue to work its way northeast overnight and into Friday
morning. Extrapolation of regional radar imagery suggests HRRR
is doing a very good job with the eastern edge of the precip, so
have used this to tweak onset of showers. Both HRRR as well as the
new 00z 4km WRF suggest that this band of showers will work across
the region on Friday, with the more persistent rainfall
diminishing over mid MO by midday and over STL area by early
afternoon. Still not seeing a huge area of IFR to our
south/southwest, but latest 00z MOS guidance of both NAM and GFS
continue to strongly lean towards IFR cigs several hours after
the onset of the precip, so have given the forecasts a nod towards
this trend where the precip is expected to be the heaviest...KCOU
and STL Metro locations.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect showers to move into the area during
the predawn hours, with the steadier and heavier precip after
daybreak causing a lowering of both cigs into the IFR range and
vsbys into the MVFR range in the 14-16z time frame. Do expect an
improvement in conditions by mid afternoon as the bulk of the
precip sweeps east of the area.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1200 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Frontal boundary remains stalled along I-70 corridor this afternoon.
However, still expect it to slowly lift back north as a warm front
this evening before upper level trof/main system begins to slide
east towards forecast area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be
on the increase with the activity moving into central MO after
midnight and towards STL metro area around daybreak. As for
temperatures, to remain mild for this time of year with lows only in
the mid 50s to around 60.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Precipitation will be on the increase Friday morning as surface low
begins to lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes, dragging a
decent cold front across the region. Showers and some thunderstorms
expected through Friday night before tapering off by Saturday
evening. With cloud cover and precipitation, highs on Friday will
only be in the upper 60s far north to the upper 70s far east.
Colder air to filter in for the weekend with highs in the low 60s to
low 70s Saturday and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday, with
overnight lows in the 40s, as surface ridge builds in.
Then by Monday, surface ridge begins to move off as next weather
system approaches region. Temperatures to remain near normal through
Tuesday. Next chance for rain will be late Monday night through
Wednesday as system to our south lifts northeastward towards region.
Behind this system, will see much colder air with highs only in the
mid to upper 50s by next Thursday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Large rain area stretching from west central MO into ne TX will
continue to work its way northeast overnight and into Friday
morning. Extrapolation of regional radar imagery suggests HRRR
is doing a very good job with the eastern edge of the precip, so
have used this to tweak onset of showers. Both HRRR as well as the
new 00z 4km WRF suggest that this band of showers will work across
the region on Friday, with the more persistent rainfall
diminishing over mid MO by midday and over STL area by early
afternoon. Still not seeing a huge area of IFR to our
south/southwest, but latest 00z MOS guidance of both NAM and GFS
continue to strongly lean towards IFR cigs several hours after
the onset of the precip, so have given the forecasts a nod towards
this trend where the precip is expected to be the heaviest...KCOU
and STL Metro locations.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect showers to move into the area during
the predawn hours, with the steadier and heavier precip after
daybreak causing a lowering of both cigs into the IFR range and
vsbys into the MVFR range in the 14-16z time frame. Do expect an
improvement in conditions by mid afternoon as the bulk of the
precip sweeps east of the area.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED OVER NW MT THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTING N MT...WEAK
JET DIVERGENCE AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE VORTICITY AND JET
ENERGY WILL PUSH E OVERNIGHT THROUGH N MT WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WERE LOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY IN THE 20S...AT 02Z. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWED LIGHT
QPF OVER THE NW ZONES AND QPF NEAR THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. THE
POPS OVER THE HIGH NW TERRAIN LOOKED GOOD. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS OVER THE
FAR NE AROUND KBHK WILL MOISTEN UP AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED THE COLUMN MOISTENING UP WITH
TIME...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO THE
KBHK AREA AFTER 06Z. LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS GIVEN CURRENT READINGS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
LOWS IN THE 30S.
PACIFIC ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON SUN WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. INCREASING PACIFIC ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A GOOD MOISTURE PLUME IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM
OF INTEREST AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE
MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WE BECOME INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING RAINS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
MT ON MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE
AREAS. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY FOR PLACES LIKE MILES CITY AND BAKER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY...EYES ON NORTHERN STREAM AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING
ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT HIGH TEMPS COULD BE EARLY
MORNING WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK LESS AS WE FIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS. CYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ENHANCED IN UPSLOPE AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION
ABOVE ABOUT 6K FEET SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN FAR EASTERN MT IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THIS
COULD ALSO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AT OR JUST BELOW
0C LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OF OUR
COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. FRIEDERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONSISTENT IN PREDICTION OF AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING QUICKLY BEHIND ACTIVE SYSTEM
DISCUSSED ABOVE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM...ALLOWING
A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 12Z..
AND THUS A POSSIBLE SECOND OFFICIAL FREEZE IN BILLINGS. THIS
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE QUITE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
QUICKLY... BY ABOUT THURSDAY MORNING OR SOONER. TIMING ON THIS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY OFF THOUGH IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... HAVE STILL KEPT SOMEWHAT
SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE OUT WEST HOWEVER... EXCEPT FOR THE LAST DAY
OF THE PERIOD WHEN UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL... MARKING THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT POP CHANGE. TEMPS COULD THUS REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
LOWER 60S BY NEXT SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KLVM AND K3HT. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/056 039/057 039/052 028/048 031/052 035/056 039/063
01/E 42/R 24/W 21/U 11/B 22/W 11/B
LVM 033/057 033/057 033/049 023/052 030/051 031/053 033/059
12/W 32/R 44/W 11/U 22/W 32/W 11/B
HDN 034/060 037/060 036/052 027/049 026/054 031/057 034/065
01/E 42/R 24/W 31/U 11/B 22/W 11/B
MLS 038/057 039/051 037/049 031/045 027/048 033/053 037/062
01/E 16/R 24/W 31/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 034/060 036/052 035/051 028/045 023/052 030/055 033/063
00/E 26/R 24/W 31/B 11/B 22/W 11/B
BHK 032/055 032/047 033/049 028/042 022/045 027/050 032/060
10/E 17/R 64/W 31/N 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 032/061 037/059 034/051 027/047 027/054 031/053 032/063
10/B 33/R 24/W 20/U 11/B 32/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS HEAVY CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THESE
CLOUDS THIN TOWARDS THE WEST AND END OVER VALLEY AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES. RADAR IMAGERY...WHICH HAD RAIN OVER WIBAUX AND RICHLAND
COUNTIES...HAS THE RAIN CLEARED OUT. THEREFORE WILL DROP POPS AND
CLEAR WX GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WILL ALSO UPDATE WIND BASED ON LATEST HRRR GRIDS. ALL
CHANGES ARE ON THE MINOR SIDE WITH NO MAJOR EDITS. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER REGION WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FURTHER TO THE WEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON THE AREA OF RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND BECOME REPLACED WITH DEVELOPING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE FORCING FOR
ASCENT LOOKS BEST. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME HOWEVER APPEARS LIMITED
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHORTWAVE TROF
DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO
LINK THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
LINKAGE SLOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PULLS SOME WARMER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOW EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL A CONCERN AND ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SUPPORT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW DUE
TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. AS EVENT APPROACHES WILL REFINE THE
CHANCES OF DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES. IN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AGAIN DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE BUILDING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE TODAY FROM THE
WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
233 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
COUPLE THINGS TO FOCUS ON INCLUDING WRAPPING UP THE UPPER LOW MOVING
WHICH GAVE US THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND SOME LOCALLY FROSTY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
CENTER OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR ONEILL NEBRASKA AND
ON ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST. TRAILING SOUTH IS SURFACE TROUGH...ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TROUGH IS A WIND SHIFT AND
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY MAINLY...WITH DRY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOWING ITS PASSING. CLOSER TO THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PERSISTENT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS LINGERED ALL DAY... FAILING TO FILL IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL
MARCHING NICELY TO THE EAST. FRANKLY...THE HRRR AND SPC WRF HAD A
BETTER HANDLE ON ITS MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BEING
VERY SPARSE. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY END ANY PRECIPITATION
RISK.
LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL AREAS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY DAWN. ATTENTION TURNS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL A DECENT BREEZE
FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE LOWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
BY DAWN SATURDAY...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS.
GOSPER...PHELPS AND KEARNEY NORTHWARD...HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED
FROSTY/FREEZE CONDITIONS AND ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THE REST OF THE FALL. THE COUNTY OF CONCERN IS FURNAS
COUNTY WHERE 33 TO 36 DEGREES IS MOST LIKELY...AND HAVE INCLUDED
THEM IN A FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
AFTER THE COOLER START SATURDAY...AND A BIT OF A MORNING BREEZE IN
EASTERN AREAS... THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
THE REGION AND TURN QUITE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF. EXPECT SOME
CLEAR BLUE SKIES THANKS TO OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENT KEEPING THE
DUST DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES. ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH 850MB WINDS AT 25
KNOTS OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE VERY STRONG WINDS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE OPEN WAVE
THAT REACHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM BACK A
LITTLE BIT. WITH CLOUDS AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT
COOLER. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND
AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF STILL HAS THE MAIN LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PERIOD
HAS MUCH POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN STORY THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OR SO OF THE FORECAST BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY...THANKS TO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPPING LOW CLOUDS AROUND FROM THE NORTH
INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN WITH FLUCUTATING
CEILINGS FROM 2K TO 5K. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASING
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH SET TO MOVE THROUGH KGRI SHORTLY...AND
GUST OVER 20KTS UNTIL EVENING...BUT STILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 10
TO 15KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SNEAK BY
KGRI PRIOR TO ABOUT 1815Z...THATS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER 06Z TO 08Z TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE
REMAINDER OR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
114 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST
TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND
THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI-
ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE
POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR
AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF IMPACT POSSIBLE
TO KVTN HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CIGS
WILL BE MVFR. KLBF ALSO SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS...WITH IMPROVING
CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST
TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND
THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI-
ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE
POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR
AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MIXED VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED TODAY IN SHRA. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CIGS MVFR IN MANY AREAS. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS EVENING AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST
TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND
THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI-
ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE
POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR
AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE SHOWERS...INSTRUMENT
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS AT OR
BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AND/OR VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD TO BETWEEN LBF AND OGA 8-10Z AND REACHING
BBW...TIF...AND VTN 10-13Z. THE SHOWERS ARE THEN LIKELY TO LAST 2
HOURS OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE SHORT RANGE FORECASTS
IN THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOW CEILINGS CONTINUING EAST OF A VTN-BBW-LBF. THE INSTRUMENT
CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY THAN WE ARE THINKING AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY VTN-LBF AND WEST. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF AN ONL-
BBW-LBF LINE AND UNTIL 12Z FOR VTN...TIF...MHN AND OGA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...NOW OVER FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL ND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD EXIT
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 04-05Z. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS STILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEGINNING EAST AND EXPANDING
WESTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS NOW OVER THE EASTERN ONE HALF OF THE STATE...FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL...INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SHOWERS...INCLUDING A SQUALL REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT
WHICH GENERATED A 35KT WIND GUST. STILL SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
OVER MY NORTH CENTRAL...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER THROUGH 02Z. CLEARING SKIES WEST WILL TREND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS ZERO SO WILL
JUST GO WITH RAIN MID MORNING SUNDAY - MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY WEST
CENTRAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ALONG WITH MORE SHOWING UP NORTH OF MY NORTHEAST. WILL
THROW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SHOWERS A TAD MORE ROBUST AND FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL SEND A QUICK
UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS OVER OLIVER
COUNTY PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST. HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
BAND OF SHOWERS NORTH OF BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE COUNTY A FEW RADAR
SCANS AGO. OPTED NOT TO PUT IN THUNDER FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH...PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SLIDING EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WORKS THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THIS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY...SOME FOG MAY LINGER OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT IN A ROUND OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH
THE MAIN CHANGE BEING INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WITH THE COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LEAD WAVE ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 12 UTC SUITE
OF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN UP JUST EAST
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MINIMAL. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN DYNAMIC AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY COINCIDE...HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...INCLUDING KJMS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY KBIS.
WILL MONITOR AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WAS APPROACHING
OR OVER PARTS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA...DICKINSON...AND HETTINGER IN THE
WEST - AND EXTENDED TO NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN SHIELD REACHING
MINOT/RUGBY AROUND 3 AM CDT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO IN AGREEMENT REGARDING A DRY SLOT THAT IS PROGGED TO PUNCH INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 3AM-4AM CDT WITH THE COMMA-
SHAPED WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING THE DRY SLOT. THEN WITH
TIME LATER IN THE MORNING THE DRY SLOT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
JAMES BASIN...BUT THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LATER ON FRIDAY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN THE JAMES VALLEY.
THE OVERALL EFFECT OF THE DRY SLOT WILL LESSEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.35 AND
0.50 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE RAIN SHIELD
JUST APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AS OF 02 UTC.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY SLOT AND TROWAL FROM THE PRIOR
FORECAST UPDATE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS
AND THE 21-00 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL
SUGGEST THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 02 UTC...SPREADING NORTH
THEREAFTER. THE 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT A DRY SLOT OVERTAKING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEY ALSO SHOW A TROWAL ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WOULD
COINCIDE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
BOWMAN...DICKINSON THROUGH BEULAH AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
WIDESPREAD RAINS ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. NORTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EVENT...AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE - WHICH WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...ALL OF CENTRAL ND AND THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON...AND TAPER OFF IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND A JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
COULD PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE JET
STREAK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES OVERNIGHT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING PRECIP
TYPES.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
MAY WRAP IN COOLER AIR...LEADING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BUT...A SHIFT
IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW COULD COMPLETELY ALTER THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND STRATUS ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
830 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AS OF 00Z ENTERING NW OH...MARKED BY A VERY THIN BAND
OF MODERATE SHRA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY LIGHT SHRA
CONCENTRATED W OF THE OH RIVER.
TIMING OF FRONT TWEAKED TO LATEST HRRR RUNS. HAVING IT THRU SE OH
BY 06Z...E OF CKB/CRW BY 08Z...AND EXITING THE S ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THINKING POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THRU THE MORNING HOURS AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN
FACT SW VA AND SE WV MAY HOLD ON TO STRATUS UNTIL DUSK. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING OVER TOP LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MODELS SHOWING A GOOD BAND OF LIFT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
MORE. WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW TIMING TWEAKS. A GOOD DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA...WILL
RESULT IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NBM DATA WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT COMING ACROSS MID WEEK. THEY ARE ALSO INGESTING THE REMAINS
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FASTER. THIS
RESULTS IN THE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
OVERALL SYSTEM ALREADY INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON
A NEGATIVE TILT THANKS TO THE ABSORPTION OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW CREATING A RELATIVE SHADOW
ZONE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEADS TO THE HEAVIER QPF LIFTING TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE WHILE HAVING CAT POPS
AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE QPF WILL
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT BY THESE FACTORS. THUS...WITH THIS AND THE DRY
GROUND...NO WATER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...SO THUNDER IS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POP POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE MAY BE TOO
GENEROUS. IN ANY EVENT...IS SHOWERS DO LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FLAKES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS CROSS KHTS/KPKB 5 TO 6Z...KCRW/KCKB 7 TO
8Z...KEKN/KBKW 9Z TO 10Z. HAVE PUT IN SOME 2 HR IFR TEMPO GROUPS
FOR FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA...WITH GENERALLY VFR -SHRA PRIOR TO
FROPA. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH FROPA. A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS TO TRAP LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOCKED IN MVFR POST
FRONTAL BKN STRATUS FOR THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY.
EXCEPTION BEING KBKW WHERE POST FRONTAL IFR/LIFR CIGS WERE CODED
UP AND GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO MVFR MIDDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AMID SOME PASSING CIRRUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG FRONT COULD VARY. TIMING OF ERADICATION OF
MVFR STRATUS SUNDAY WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/25/15
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD FORM
IFR CEILINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
607 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE STARTING IN THE
WEST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ONGOING
UNTIL IT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A
VERY MOIST SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES IS WORKING INTO EASTERN INDIANA. AS THIS BAND RUNS
INTO DRY AIR THINK THE SHRA WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER BAND QUICKLY IS
SHOW TO DEVELOP ON THE HRRR/RAP AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AREA
AROUND 06Z IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THESE SHORT TERM MODELS THEN
START TO DIFFER WITH THE HRRR BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A
GOOD BAND OF RAIN REACHING THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF CLE TO NEAR BJJ BY
10 TO 11Z. THE RAP DOESN`T GET PRECIP THIS FAR UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. WILL
INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST WHERE WHERE THE
MODELS AGREE MORE THAT PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH MOST OF THE TEMP FALL
BEFORE 06Z. THUS...EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S FOR THE INLAND
EXTREME EAST TO 50 TO 55 IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM
LAKE COUNTY WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING CLOUD DECK. AS
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL OHIO THE MODELS
INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER INDIANA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT THEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL JET COULD MAKE FOR SOME
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH PAST PEAK HEATING
HOURS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BROKEN LINE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO CAPITALIZE
ON THE SHEAR.
EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER...ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT RAIN AS PW`S JUMP TO AROUND 1.5" SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER (3KM) WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RELATIVE TO THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY BRING DOWN
HEAVY RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS. GIVEN HOW DRY THE AREA HAS BEEN THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THE
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STORM MOTIONS NEAR 50KT.
THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN WITH NW FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAKE (WHICH CONTINUES TO COOL
INTO THE 50S) AND THE H850 IS NOT NOTABLE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL SUDDENLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OF PATRICIA WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE DEEPENING TROUGH...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING THE LOCAL AREA.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD REACH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TAPPING SOME COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY NOT CONSISTENT THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE WHEN IT COMES TO PHASING A LONG WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 MID
WEEK...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SATURDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT. HERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT IT IS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING NON VFR
POSSIBLE FOR NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL CHOPPY ON LAKE ERIE WITH A BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW. THE
WIND MAY ACTUALLY COME UP A FEW KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION
BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE FROM THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BUT WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES HEADING INTO THE OPEN WATERS AND CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND WHERE THE WIND WILL COME AROUND
FROM THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1018 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. THE REGION SHOULD SEE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CI TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE...SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD
FRONT EAST INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MARGINAL...BUT THE NAM IS SHOWING
SOME MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S...COOLING INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE
FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW
MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE
THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW
SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION
MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN
THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL
OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND
QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT
SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE
WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION.
GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS
FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME
NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
6K/ 7K FOOT CLOUD DECKS WHERE NONE EXIST. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING CURRENT VFR CLOUDS THE BEST AND SHOWS 6K/7K FOOT CLOUD
DECK QUICKLY ERODING AROUND CMH/LCK. THIS AFTERNOON THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING WINDS
TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL START TO
LOWER TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL
LIFT... RAIN LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY
SATURDAY 8 AM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH ALL OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WE HAD SEEN SOME POST FRONTAL SC ACROSS THE
NORTH EARLIER...BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ATTM. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO
WORK BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL GO WITH PRIMARILY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD
FRONT EAST INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MARGINAL...BUT THE NAM IS SHOWING
SOME MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S...COOLING INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE
FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW
MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE
THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW
SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION
MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN
THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL
OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND
QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT
SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE
WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION.
GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS
FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME
NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
6K/ 7K FOOT CLOUD DECKS WHERE NONE EXIST. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING CURRENT VFR CLOUDS THE BEST AND SHOWS 6K/7K FOOT CLOUD
DECK QUICKLY ERODING AROUND CMH/LCK. THIS AFTERNOON THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING WINDS
TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL START TO
LOWER TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL
LIFT... RAIN LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY
SATURDAY 8 AM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
504 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY AND
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. A COOL AND CLOUDY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HEADING
INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM...ANTICIPATING PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA NEAR
DAYBREAK. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND PRESENCE OF A FEW OBS WITH LOW
VSBY TOGETHER ARE A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST LOCALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-85. WILL MONITOR OBS TRENDS BUT CURRENTLY I THINK THE IMPACT
WILL BE ISOLATED...AND NO HEADLINES APPEAR NECESSARY.
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUS WILL PERSIST. FURTHER
AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO TOP OUT AROUND 80 IN MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...ABOUT 10 DEG
ABOVE CLIMO AT ALL SITES. PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL PUSH
UPPER RIDGE EWD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN SEABOARD
BY TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST
COAST...DRIVING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWFA FROM THE
NE. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND AS
THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES UP THE BLUE RIDGE...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ALONG THE EAST FACING ESCARPMENT
AND THRU THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MINS ALSO REMAIN WARM...TWO OR THREE
CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
TRANSITION. A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE ON THE E COAST WILL
DEAMPLIFY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS
BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE N AND THE REMNANT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
FL...WITH A CONFLUENCE IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS
OWING TO WHATEVER BECOMES OF THE PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT
OVER TX. EXPECT THAT SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT AND WEAKENS...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMAL BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDINESS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THINK THE BULK OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE DRY...UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE N.
CHANGES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS REORGANIZE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST
AND MS DELTA REGION. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AS TO THE SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THRU MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE
MAIN BOUNDARY TO THE N...WHICH IS MILDLY PREFERRED BECAUSE IF A
TROPICAL REMNANT COMES OUT FROM TX TO THE MS DELTA IT WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT KEEPING SOME UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH WOULD HELP TO DETER THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THAT WILL
KEEP A N-S GRADIENT OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS IDEA
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF AS WELL. WE LACK MID/UPPER
FORCING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PROBABILITY IN THE CHANCE RANGE AWAY
FROM THE TN BORDER. AN OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DISCOURAGE
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC...THUS THE LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS
SCENARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FCST OWING TO A POSSIBLE COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN GETTING KICKED OUT OF THE MS DELTA REGION ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. FEEL MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WEDGE DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONFLUENT UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY ANCHOR A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER SE ONTARIO OR
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOIST
UPGLIDE SHOULD LOCK IN THE WEDGE THRU TUESDAY. TEMPS WERE NOT
CHANGED AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE NUDGED PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD THRU
MID WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BEYOND TUESDAY...
BUT ODDLY ENUF THE END RESULT SHOULD BE SIMILAR. THE PARENT HIGH
SHOULD PICK UP AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSLATE E/NE ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...
TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HARD TO
SPECULATE RIGHT NOW ABOUT WHAT EFFECT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN
LOW CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA. PRECIP AMTS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WPC DO NOT APPEAR
TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD RESULT
IN A DECENT SOAKING RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES MAINLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z KCLT UPDATE...LATEST HRRR AND RAP THINK DENSE FOG MAY FORM AT
THE FIELD. A FEW NEARBY SITES ARE EXPERIENCING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
THIS A.M. AND IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MAY OCCUR
AT KCLT WITH LITTLE WARNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU
THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OCNL
RESTRICTIONS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO AT KAVL. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT. KAND
ACCORDINGLY SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. FLOW WILL PREVAIL
EASTERLY THOUGH BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. KCLT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS
FLIP FROM NE TO SE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTN. AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO NC TONIGHT...LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN OVER
KHKY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SFC MIXING IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY IN THE EVENT.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACRS THE NC SITES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 44% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY AND
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE A
COOL AND CLOUDY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HEADING
INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
NAM FAMILY GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES. REVISED MENTION THEREOF BASED ON
LATEST PROGS...BUT OVERALL CHANGE IS SMALL.
AS OF 1020 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC (ALBEIT WEAKENING). SO OVERALL...TONIGHT
LOOKS LIKE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT TEMPS SHUD BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
AROUND LAKES AND RIVERS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 0
MB SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ACRS THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER
PIEDMONT...HINTING AT POSSIBLE DENSE FOG. THE RAP AND THE NARRE-TL
HAVE ALSO LATCHED ON TO THIS...BUT KEEPING IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR
NOW...I WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION BY THE
AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12-13 C ACROSS
THE MTNS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 14C EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TODAY/S VALUES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
AREA FRI NITE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT. THE FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL SAT NITE AND SUN AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SE INTO THE AREA
THRU SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
NITE AND INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NITE AND SAT...TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE
INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT BAY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PRODUCING CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM ELY TO SLY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THIS TIME...AND THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IN A RELATIVELY
THIN LAYER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE. HAVE KEPT
THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT DO KEEP CLOUDS IN FRI NITE AND SAT
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WILE HIGHS WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EARLY CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY IS WEAK...THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY WHICH SHOULD CREATE WLY UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT WILL ALSO KEEP ANY GULF INFLOW AT BAY AND CREATE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS TRENDS WHICH BRINGS SMALL POP INTO THE NRN MTNS LATE SAT
NITE THEN SPREAD THE PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
THRU THE DAY SUN...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT BEST ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT AND SC/GA MTNS. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS RISE TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THICKNESSES RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE WAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AN ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING IN OVER THE
AREA...WITH ALL FORCING WELL INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WILL BE LURKING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS
THE ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CUTS OFF
FROM THE ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH.
AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE
PERSISTENT AND DECENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WITHIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST AND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP AN
UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE FAVORED SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED HIGHER...BUT RAINFALL
TOTALS REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A NARROW RIBBON OF 0.50-1.00
INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 3-10
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A FAIRLY POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM IS
GOING TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AND PICK UP WHATEVER ENERGY REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SOMETIME MID- TO LATE WEEK. THERE REMAINS
TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS OF COURSE...AS GUIDANCE
UNSUPRISINGLY DISAGREES ON TIMING...EVOLUTION...AND
THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS. THE GFS IS EARLIER WITH THESE FEATURES
AND KEEPS THE GULF LOW MOVING TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE INTERMITTENT
ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ...WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF MORE SLOWLY TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...THEREBY RESULTING IN CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES OF EVENT-TOTAL
PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW MORE INLINE WITH THE 12Z GFS
IN LOW TRACK AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE FOR A
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES DURING THIS EVENT IS INCREASING. THESE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE OF MINIMAL CONCERN HYDROLOGICALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU
THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OCNL
RESTRICTIONS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO AT KAVL. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT. KAND
ACCORDINGLY SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. FLOW WILL PREVAIL
EASTERLY THOUGH BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. KCLT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS
FLIP FROM NE TO SE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTN. AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO NC TONIGHT...LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN OVER
KHKY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SFC MIXING IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY IN THE EVENT.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACRS THE NC SITES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 72% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WITH WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SD IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION
ZONE. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW ARE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE RAPID
CITY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE A 59 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE
NWS OFFICE JUST BEFORE 800 AM. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER
OFF TOWARD SUNSET.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING AND EASTWARD
MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA BY MIDDAY AND EXIT THE CWA BY SUNSET.
SOME SUN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS
NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF
SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN
BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY
AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS
REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND
CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO
THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER
COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH
ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE
REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE
STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
072>074.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WITH WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SD IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION
ZONE. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW ARE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE RAPID
CITY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE A 59 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE
NWS OFFICE JUST BEFORE 800 AM. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER
OFF TOWARD SUNSET.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING AND EASTWARD
MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA BY MIDDAY AND EXIT THE CWA BY SUNSET.
SOME SUN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS
NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF
SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN
BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY
AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS
REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND
CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO
THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER
COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH
ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE
REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE
STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND THE MAIN MOISTURE
PUSH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
072>074.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
311 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS
NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF
SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN
BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY
AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS
REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND
CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO
THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER
COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH
ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE
REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE
STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND THE MAIN MOISTURE
PUSH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ026-031-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
110 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
NOW THAT THE SECOND MORNING ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA HAS PAST EAST OF
DFW AIRPORTS...NEXT CONCERN WILL BE TIMING THE NEXT ROUND EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WACO/S CONCERNS INCLUDE
PERSISTENCE OF CURRENT TSRA W/+RA AND WHEN ANY BREAKS WILL OCCUR
WITH TIMING OF TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY ANOTHER DIFFICULT CHALLENGE.
OTHERWISE...CIGS FLUCUATING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR TO CONTINUE BEING
PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. TIMING THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING FOR
SWITCHING TO PERMANENT NORTH FLOW.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES WEST OF THE AREA WITH RIPPLES
OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS AND MEXICO. WITH MOISTURE NEAR MAXIMUM FOR LATE OCTOBER WE
EXPECT FEW MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH AT TIMES INTENSE
RAINFALL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HURRICANE
PATRICIA NEAR MAZATLAN OFF THE WESTERN MEXICAN COAST WILL ALSO
ADD TO THE MIX LATER THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS BY THE TIME
ANY EFFECTS FROM PATRICIA SHOULD OCCUR.
DFW...
WILL CARRY VFR WITH VCSH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BEFORE INTRODUCING
THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA INTO THE MIX. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR WITH THIS SECOND RD COMING TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY +RA. ESE WINDS 5-7 KTS
SHOULD BECOME SE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. TIMING ANY ROUNDS BEYOND
THE FIRST 12 HRS IS DIFFICULT WITH SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM AND WILL
MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS FOR SIMPLICITY/S SAKE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.
WACO...
HOW LONG TO PERSIST CURRENT TSRA W/+RA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
FOR NOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON APPEARS REASONABLE.
AFTERWARD...WILL FOLLOW WITH SHRA WORDING WITH VCTS. ESE WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
.....QUICK OVERVIEW...PRECIPITATION EVENT.....
FLASH FLOOD WATCH... NOW INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 7AM
SUNDAY.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS... WIDESPREAD TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA WITH HEAVIEST LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX.
HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. ON SATURDAY...HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS... ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED 8 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOODING THREAT... HIGH. WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MORE RAIN FALLS ON WET GROUNDS. URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS RAINS CONTINUE.
RIVER FLOODING THREAT... MODERATE. RIVERS ARE NOW STARTING TO
RESPOND UPWARD WITH CONTINUED RAIN. SHOULD SEE MORE RUNOFF MAKING
IT INTO STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH TONIGHT.
.....DISCUSSION.....
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TO THE SOUTH...MAJOR HURRICANE
PATRICIA NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 200 MPH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL
LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. A HURRICANE THIS STRONG
HAS A WELL DEFINED MATURE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EFFICIENTLY EVACUATES AIR OUT OF THE TOP OF THE
HURRICANE. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS CLOCKWISE
ROTATING BANDS WHICH ALREADY EXTENDS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME IMPORTANT LATER TONIGHT TO HELP ENHANCE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.
THOUGHTS FOR TODAY...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SHOWED SIGNS
OF WEAKENING IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND THE WELL DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION IS NOW
RETREATING TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS IN THE METROPLEX HAVE NOW
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY NOT BE AS IMPORTANT IN
FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
INSTEAD...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE
OF A 35KT LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO
THE WEST OF THE METROPLEX IN AN AREA OF MODERATE WARM ADVECTION
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. ITS TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TODAY...BUT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD SEE ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT
BE THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BY TONIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO
WEST TEXAS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL
BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP TO GREATLY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
GOOD FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO FORT WORTH TO BONHAM. THIS AREA COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY AND THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THIS MEANS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A SOUTHWARD MOVING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 68 73 60 71 / 100 100 100 60 30
WACO, TX 74 68 75 61 71 / 100 90 100 70 40
PARIS, TX 75 65 73 60 71 / 100 90 80 60 60
DENTON, TX 73 65 71 58 69 / 100 100 90 50 20
MCKINNEY, TX 73 66 72 59 70 / 100 100 90 60 30
DALLAS, TX 73 68 73 61 71 / 100 100 100 70 30
TERRELL, TX 74 67 74 61 70 / 100 100 100 70 50
CORSICANA, TX 74 68 76 63 71 / 100 90 100 80 50
TEMPLE, TX 75 67 74 61 71 / 90 90 100 80 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 64 71 57 70 / 100 100 80 40 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
05/91
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Fog and low clouds have been slow to erode, and could continue to
affect FST and MAF through the first hour or so of the forecast
period. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail, though
thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall could affect MAF this
afternoon. A cold front will start to move through the area late
in the forecast period, with winds increasing and veering to the
northeast, with gusts up to 25-30KT possible behind the front
Saturday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning has been more active than was previously
expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just
south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of
this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a
weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the
most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface
trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and
radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa.
Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash
flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was
very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under
water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the
public should be cautious travelling this morning.
A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday
bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough
will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the
eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface
front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will
develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection.
Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on
Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only
reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds
scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely.
Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and
continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the
northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but
long range models are indicating another system late in the week
will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall.
Hennig
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
648 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE
KAMA TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT
KGUY BY 16Z...TO KDHT BY 17Z...AND TO KAMA BY 22Z. WINDS WILL NOT BE
VERY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ANY LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
NF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...APART FROM
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOL START EACH DAY...WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY SUB-40 MINIMA EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...OWING TO POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH EASTERN
ZONES. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY MAXIMA FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO.
MODELS AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRAVERSE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS ONLY. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE CALLED FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEREAFTER.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCING
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
COCKRELL
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
6/3
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Nocturnal storms have moved east of TAF sites... may see some
redevelopment today mainly for MAF and FST but did not include in
TAFs. Widespread low clouds and fog this morning with mainly IFR
cigs and vsbys... some local LIFR conditions. Expect VFR
conditions by afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning has been more active than was previously
expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just
south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of
this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a
weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the
most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface
trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and
radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa.
Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash
flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was
very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under
water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the
public should be cautious travelling this morning.
A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday
bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough
will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the
eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface
front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will
develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection.
Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on
Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only
reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds
scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely.
Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and
continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the
northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but
long range models are indicating another system late in the week
will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall.
Hennig
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE
BORDERLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A THIRD STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED BUT LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF THREE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS LACKING THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE LOWLANDS. A NOTE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RECENT RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THAT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER OCCURRENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR AREAS EAST OF EL PASO SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH MOST PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FURTHER EAST INTO WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR FOR EASTERN ZONES IN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. EAST
WINDS WILL BECOME LOCALLY WINDY ALONG WEST SLOPES OF AREA
MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER OPEN WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
FOR A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM BUT BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN DEEPENING THE TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SINCE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO OCCUR...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBILITY BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE
IMPACT TO LOCAL AREA WEATHER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER MTNS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBY IN MTN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AFT 06Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFT 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK OPEN TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH MINOR
IMPACTS TO LOCAL AREA WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE GILA REGION AND POSSIBLY
THE SAC MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
OVERNIGHT LOWERING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIVER. LONGER TERM
FORECASTS SUGGEST A ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 75 51 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 75 50 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 72 45 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 36 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 46 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 41 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 72 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 73 44 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 76 51 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 51 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 71 49 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 75 50 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 43 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 71 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 47 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 72 48 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 39 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 62 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 61 41 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 62 39 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 71 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 66 35 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 68 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 71 38 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 69 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 68 43 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 74 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 72 44 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 71 46 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04 LUNDEEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning has been more active than was previously
expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just
south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of
this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a
weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the
most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface
trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and
radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa.
Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash
flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was
very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under
water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the
public should be cautious travelling this morning.
A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday
bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough
will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the
eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface
front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will
develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection.
Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on
Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only
reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds
scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely.
Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and
continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the
northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but
long range models are indicating another system late in the week
will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 71 54 61 49 / 70 40 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 75 53 66 43 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 82 65 68 56 / 40 50 40 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 74 58 62 49 / 40 40 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 68 50 60 45 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 73 50 65 42 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA TX 74 51 62 42 / 10 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 56 61 46 / 60 30 20 10
ODESSA TX 74 56 64 47 / 50 30 20 10
WINK TX 76 57 68 49 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.AVIATION...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO HAVE MADE IT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE ANOTHER ROUND APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK
HEATING FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
OUR LONG AWAITED RAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
TOTALS ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WE WILL SEND OUT A
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL ALSO
EXPAND THE 100 PERCENT POPS TO AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS IMMINENT.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING..
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL DAY FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF DFW WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS ALREADY TO BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE.
SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW AREAS...BUT LUCKILY
OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOW MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TO
ABSORB INTO THE SOIL WITH JUST MAINLY SOME STREET FLOODING
REPORTED. THE PERSISTENT RAIN AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MODEST COLD
POOL THAT HAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO A GAINESVILLE...TO DECATUR...
TO EASTLAND LINE.
THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY REMAINS ANALOGOUS AT BEST...AS EVEN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS JOIN THE STANDARD MODELS IN NOT RESOLVING THE
CURRENT BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...OR THE COLD POOL VERY
WELL AT ALL. PICKING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS NOT IN THE CARDS TODAY
AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HRRR AND ECMWF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM AND
EUROPEAN MODELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR IS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH TO BE OUTRUN BY
IT/S COLD POOL AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT REFORMING OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE WEST OF A
SHERMAN...DALLAS...COMANCHE LINE WITH MORE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS
EASING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE LARGE SCALE WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE RAINFALL THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT COMBINING WITH ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WHERE
THAT WILL BE IS ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOMEWHERE. OTHER AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
RACING NORTH WITH THE MEAN SSW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
VERY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
EXPAND THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE
MORE PRIMED FROM CURRENT RAINFALL AND REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
THE LAST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG
BEND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING THIS FEATURE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LLJ AND 850MB WAA ENCOUNTER
INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100-110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY DROP A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MY BIG CONCERN WITH THE SECOND EVENT
IS THAT MANY AREAS MAY BE SATURATED OR EXPERIENCING
ONGOING...LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WINDOW IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN
REGARDING BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS
DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS WE FINISH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE TRACK
MORE FLAT AND OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS EITHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OR TAPERING OFF. WITH
MY CONFIDENCE VERY LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL COME MORE IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS. TIMING SUCH
ROUNDS IS ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...THUS WE STRESS TO EVERYONE TO BE
PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF THEY
ARE SUCCUMBED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OR
EXTREME URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. WE WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE
TIMING THE ROUNDS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS BEST WE CAN...BUT THE
BEST BET IS TO BE AWARE AT ALL TIMES...ESPECIALLY DRIVING AND
OUTDOORS...TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT WILL LIKELY
BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR MORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...RAIN...RAIN-PRODUCED COLD
POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
FINALLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND HALLOWEEN...BUT FOR
NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW WITH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS TO
ADVERTISE FUTURE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 78 67 71 59 / 100 100 100 90 60
WACO, TX 69 80 67 74 60 / 70 90 100 100 70
PARIS, TX 68 75 66 72 59 / 90 100 80 100 70
DENTON, TX 64 77 66 71 58 / 100 80 90 90 50
MCKINNEY, TX 64 76 66 72 59 / 100 90 90 100 60
DALLAS, TX 67 78 67 72 59 / 90 100 100 100 60
TERRELL, TX 69 78 67 74 61 / 80 90 100 100 70
CORSICANA, TX 70 80 68 75 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
TEMPLE, TX 70 80 67 74 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 79 64 71 58 / 100 80 80 80 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
30/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
910 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH AND WEAKENING BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WETTER STORM SYSTEM
BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER STILL QUITE A
TONGUE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN WITHIN THE 85H-7H INVERSION...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE DRY PER THE LEFTOVER RESIDUAL
WEDGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS HAS ACTED TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT WERE CROSSING THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LOBE OF LIFT/SHOWERS ALONG THE
ACTUAL FRONT JUST WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WITH OVERALL ONLY THE HRRR BRINGING COVERAGE
EAST TO AT LEAST THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS PLAN TO KEEP SOME
HIGHER LIKELY POPS GOING FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT PER CURRENT
PROXIMITY OF THE SHOWERS...WHILE ONLY GOING WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY ON...THEN MORE CHANCE NATURE COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. SOLID
MID DECK CANOPY SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH UNLESS
SHOWERS/EVAPORATION INCREASE SO STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE POOLS BEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE
FURTHER NORTHEAST. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF NC/VA BORDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONT REACHING AN NORFOLK VA TO GSP LINE.
THE MODELS START TO BRING JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY CORRIDOR...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-
64...HIGHWAY 60 TO RETURN SOME SUN BY 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
OVERALL WILL STAY CLOUDY. HIGHS SHOULD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH
LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 60SS OUT EAST AND THE NC FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY.
BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO
NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA.
WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY
APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE FROM
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON KFCX WSR-88D IMAGE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE FEW SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BLF-LWB CORRIDOR BY 05-10Z AND
BCB/ROA BY 08-12Z. WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB...WITH MAINLY VFR EAST WITH LIMITED SHOWER THREAT EAST OF
ROA.
MODELS VARY ON WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NAM/LOCAL WRF
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN ROA/BCB
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH CLOUD
COVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON BRING UP THE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS COULD LINGER SOUTH OF A BLF-BCB LINE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WORKS FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WETTER STORM SYSTEM MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SFC FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD TO SE
MISSOURI. SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND IS RETREATING WITH WEDGE
ERODING. FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS SW...THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN MAKING IT TOWARD THE SE WV/ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT
FOLDS OVER BY SUNDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ON SOUTHEAST WV TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
LATE TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT TO NO CHANCE SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD...MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE POOLS BEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE FURTHER
NORTHEAST. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED SOUTH OF NC/VA BORDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
REACHING AN NORFOLK VA TO GSP LINE.
THE MODELS START TO BRING JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY CORRIDOR...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-
64...HIGHWAY 60 TO RETURN SOME SUN BY 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
OVERALL WILL STAY CLOUDY. HIGHS SHOULD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH
LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 60SS OUT EAST AND THE NC FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY.
BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO
NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA.
WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY
APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE FROM
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON KFCX WSR-88D IMAGE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE FEW SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE BLF-LWB CORRIDOR BY 05-10Z AND
BCB/ROA BY 08-12Z. WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB...WITH MAINLY VFR EAST WITH LIMITED SHOWER THREAT EAST OF
ROA.
MODELS VARY ON WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NAM/LOCAL WRF
INDICATING THE POPTENTIAL FOR FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN ROA/BCB
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH CLOUD
COVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON BRING UP THE WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS COULD LINGER SOUTH OF A BLF-BCB LINE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/MVFR
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
816 PM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D
REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION
IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO
DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR
SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS
CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO...
WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.
WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT
AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND
DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST
EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER
AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT
THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION
AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE
BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS
EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA
INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF
THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A
PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN
SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL
IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE
PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING BRINGING A DIMINISHING TO THE
NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO GYY
THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOMENTUM OF THIS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING LIGHT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS INCLUDING THAT WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW 9 KT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WAVES WITHIN THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE GIVEN THE FETCH AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAVES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
STATES MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THESE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EASILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH THE WAVES BUILDING WITHIN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN
NEARSHORES. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONSIDERABLY DEEPEN
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER OR NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SUCH A PATTERN CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
GALES BEHIND THAT FRONT...ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM FOR MAXIMUM WIND STRENGTH...WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED IN TIME. A QUIET TAIL END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1211 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
816 PM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO INCLUDE A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS GRIDS WITH
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN 88D
REFLECTIVITY CLEAR-AIR MODE...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND F-GEN FORCING GENERATED BY COLD ADVECTION
IN 950-850 MB LAYER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN/MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
LINGERS ALMOST BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGING THE TRAILING EDGE INTO THE RFD AREA BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO THE CHICAGO AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE ALSO
DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM OUR
SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH...AND THIS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THERE LATER TONIGHT. THUS
CLEAR SKIES MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF I-80 OR SO...
WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.
WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE CLOUD COVER HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED...THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE RISES MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF GRADIENT
AS WELL AS EVENTUAL CLEARING HELPING TO ALLOW COOLING AND
DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE LAYER. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH READINGS SLOWLY COOLING OFF THROUGH THE LOWER 50S AND 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALLOW MOST
EFFECTIVE COOLING...AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
228 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST INTO INDIANA WITH COOLER
AIR NOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHORT RANGE HRRR HINTED AT
THIS AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE LIGHT PRECIP THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REGARDING DURATION
AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER IS QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE CLEARING LINE
BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL IA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS IS
EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM MID EVENING IN THE WEST TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CALM BY MORNING. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE
HIGH TEMPS ONLY WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...A LAKE BREEZE
MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
237 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A HYBRID SUB-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA
INTERACTS WITH SRN STREAM...MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH AS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME MINOR TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A STRONG
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...TAPPING SOME OF
THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL NOT SO MUCH PHASE WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT TAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING UP A
PERIOD WET WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN
SHOULD BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY REACH INTO CENTRAL
IL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVERS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODERATE TO...LOCALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...THE
PARENT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...SETTLING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING BRINGING A DIMINISHING TO THE
NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO GYY
THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOMENTUM OF THIS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING LIGHT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS INCLUDING THAT WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW 9 KT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
237 PM CDT
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SWRN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SHORT
PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW COMBINES WITH
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEING TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING AS THE REMNANTS OF
PATRICIA INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN GLFMEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF
BRISK SELY-ELY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH...WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO
LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM SRN
SASK/ALBERTA AND THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER
ALBERTA WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...NW WINDS
WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE
OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV BRUSHES
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWVS NEAR THE REGION PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF 850-600 MB FGEN WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND
HIGH RES MODELS REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
GREATEST PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY THROUGH SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI
BORDER. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE
BAND AS THE GEM PRODUCES PCPN ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK EXPECTED...
ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IN STRORE WITH BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ENOUGH COOL AIR ON BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO HAVE SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. OUTLOOKS FM CPC INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG EL NINO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE OVERALL LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OVER NORTHERN
MN INTO LK SUPERIOR BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN ON MONDAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH RIBBON OF H85-H7
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD BUT
LIGHT RAIN OVER AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF CWA. LIGHT RAIN MAY LIFT
NORTH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST. APPEARS KEWEENAW MISSES OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH FARTHER NORTH GEM-REGIONAL WOULD BRING SOME
RAIN UP TO HOUGHTON/HANCOCK. DECAYING RIBBON OF MOISTURE LINGERS
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CERTAIN. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR CNTRL IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PERSIST.
ATTN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNS TO DEEPENING TROUGH FM
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND ALSO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER
SCNTRL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DRY LOW-LEVELS
DUE TO HIGH IN THE VCNTY TO PROHIBIT MUCH RAIN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS FOCUSES OVER WEST LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MN SO
THAT IS WHERE LOW POPS WILL RESIDE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ONE PART OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER CNTRL PLAINS WHILE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING
SFC LOWS OVER MANITOBA AND OVER MO/ILL SHOULD RESULT IN SHIELD OF
RAIN LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MOVE INTO CWA. SUPPOSE ESE WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM AS EARLY AS
EVENING OVER UPSLOPE OF CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY LOW CHANCE.
RAIN SPREADS OVER ALL CWA BY DAYBREAK WED. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH
OF WED AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ONLY INCREASES DUE TO PHASING OF
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FM
THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW OVER MO/ILL BECOMES MAIN
PLAYER...DEEPENING TO 990-995MB WHILE REACHING SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF
UPR MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY WED AND TO AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES OVER LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z THU. DESPITE LOW CROSSING THE CWA ON WED...FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE VIA THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO KEEP
DRY SLOT AFFECTS TO A MINIMUM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE
QUARTER IF NOT ONE HALF INCH SHOULD RESULT FM THE SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN
ALL THE INTERACTIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ALOFT...SPECIFICS IN
RAIN TIMING/EXTENT AND AMOUNTS MAY STILL CHANGE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. PROGS OF H85 TEMPS AND 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF POINT TO COOLEST AIR STAYING OVER MN
AND WI WHILE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR OVER UPR MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS AT 12Z THU ARE -2C OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4C BY 00Z. LK SUPERIOR TEMPS ARE 8-
10C...SO PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THU. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THU LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z FRIDAY BUT WITH LESS
CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKING AT PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THAT TIME. GFS IS
COLDER AND WOULD POINT TO SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY
NCNTRL AND EAST NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF
OR GEM IN BRINGING QPF INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. USED CONSENSUS WHICH ONLY HAS SMALL CHANCES.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX
AND SAW EARLY IN THE MRNG AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHG FM THE NW CROSSES
LK SUP. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE
IN THE AFTN AT THESE LOCATIONS FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD WI AND ALONG THE STALLED LO PRES TROF MAY
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN TO IWD AND PERHAPS SAW THIS EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 25 KTS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A RETURN TO DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AFFECTS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH.
REPORTS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE ALREADY BEEN MET IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WHITE`S BEACH ON GRAND ISLE GUSTING TO 49MPH
AND COLCHESTER REEF GUSTING TO 53 MPH.
I CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. I BUMPED UP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT OBS
AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY WELL COVERED WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 708 PM SATURDAY... ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR
CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE WORKED THAT
IN...ALTHOUGH A LEVELING OUT AND EVEN A GRADUAL RISE IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR WINDS...HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE...AND 25-40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND FORCED
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL BE PRESENT...THE QUESTION IS HOW THE
STABILITY EVOLVES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF
CURRENT OBSERVED GUSTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT
OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE WITH WARMER LAKE WATERS...WHERE 40-50 MPH
GUSTS IN FORECAST. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
30-40 MPH LOOKS GOOD. OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCATIONS...ALL GUSTS WILL
BE LESS THAN 30 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION 04Z-10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE SOME TERRAIN-DRIVEN COMPONENTS...WITH THE LEAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AROUND 0.10")...AND
GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS WITH UP
TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN LIE IN A
NARROW WARM SECTOR OF PARENT CENTRAL CANADIAN SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY ABATES AND VEERS TO
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING STEADILY
EASTWARD. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE HAVING PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW ADDITIONAL MORNING SHOWERS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MOST OF THE DAY GENERALLY DRY DESPITE
DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (50S) SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE READINGS LEVEL OFF, OR EVEN FALL
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY COOL AND
QUIET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
BODILY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...CONDITIONS BEGIN TRANQUIL TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY DEPARTS EWD THRU THE GULF OF
MAINE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT SELY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE OVERSPREAD OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS FROM SW-NE TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM OWING TO LATER ARRIVAL OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS.
00Z GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT UPCOMING FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BRING FIRST WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SW-NE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
00Z GFS DEVELOPS STEADY/WAA ASSOCIATED PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15-18Z WED...WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY 18Z WED THRU 00Z
THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY (GENERALLY 65-75
PERCENT)...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL LIKELY SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL (S-SE 20-30 MPH)...WITH STRONG P-
GRADIENT IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPR 50S...AND LIKELY ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 50F WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED SLY GRADIENT FLOW. MAY SEE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT EVOLVE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
PW VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.25-1.5" DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING PER
00Z GFS. ALONG WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HVY RAINFALL WED AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL QPF GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE 00Z GFS...BUT 1-1.5"
GENERALLY IN THE 00Z ECMWF. SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT
OVERALL NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/MTN FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE WNW. HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST SECTIONS...WITH
GENERAL TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT
AT BTV. DOWNWARD MIXING IS LIMITED AT RUT/MPV/MSS WITH INVERSION
LAYER IN PLACE...AND CARRIED LLWS GROUPS AT THESE SITES.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AT LOW LEVELS DURING NEXT SEVERAL
HRS WITH 60KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AT 2-3 KFT AGL THRU ABOUT
10Z. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FROPA BRINGS WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KT AND
GUSTS 20-25 KTS. CEILINGS SLOWLY RETURN VFR BY 18Z THIS AFTN WITH
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD
EVENING. SFC WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z
MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR STRONG AND CHANNELED SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS FROM 28 TO 43 KNOTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OPEN LAKE WATERS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS ABATE
BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND
BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THE STRONGER WINDS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002-
005.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/DEAL/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A RETURN TO DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AFFECTS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH.
REPORTS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE ALREADY BEEN MET IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WHITE`S BEACH ON GRAND ISLE GUSTING TO 49MPH
AND COLCHESTER REEF GUSTING TO 53 MPH.
I CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. I BUMPED UP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO REFLECT OBS
AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY WELL COVERED WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 708 PM SATURDAY... ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR
CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS/OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE WORKED THAT
IN...ALTHOUGH A LEVELING OUT AND EVEN A GRADUAL RISE IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE/SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR WINDS...HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE...AND 25-40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND FORCED
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL BE PRESENT...THE QUESTION IS HOW THE
STABILITY EVOLVES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF
CURRENT OBSERVED GUSTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT
OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE WITH WARMER LAKE WATERS...WHERE 40-50 MPH
GUSTS IN FORECAST. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
30-40 MPH LOOKS GOOD. OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCATIONS...ALL GUSTS WILL
BE LESS THAN 30 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION 04Z-10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE SOME TERRAIN-DRIVEN COMPONENTS...WITH THE LEAST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AROUND 0.10")...AND
GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS WITH UP
TO ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN LIE IN A
NARROW WARM SECTOR OF PARENT CENTRAL CANADIAN SYSTEM BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY ABATES AND VEERS TO
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING STEADILY
EASTWARD. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE HAVING PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW ADDITIONAL MORNING SHOWERS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MOST OF THE DAY GENERALLY DRY DESPITE
DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (50S) SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE READINGS LEVEL OFF, OR EVEN FALL
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY COOL AND
QUIET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
BODILY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE 4 THROUGH 7 DAY FORECAST
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT LIKELY.
THE PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH LIKELY. IN
ADDITION GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST ON THURSDAY.
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP FULL LATITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEVELOPING 996MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CREATE
GUSTS SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON WEDS EVENING. GIVEN MIXING
HEIGHTS AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXPECT GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NOSE OF 850MB JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS
LIFTING ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 250 MB
JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. PW`S SURGE TO
1.50" AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS 2 TO 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
THINKING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.50 IS LIKELY WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. SOME
SHADOWING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND PARTS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I HAVE MENTION HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CAT POPS
FROM LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BY 18Z THURSDAY...RESULTING IN STEADIER RAINS
BECOMING MORE SHOWERY. AS POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND DEEPENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA...STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. A FEW
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BECOME TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LIGHT. PROGGED 850 TEMPS SUPPORT NEARLY NORMAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY...BUT WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5C ON WEDS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60. THINKING EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BEFORE VALUES DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS AND PRECIP EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY WEDS NIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS 15-25KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT
AT BTV. DOWNWARD MIXING IS LIMITED AT RUT/MPV/MSS WITH INVERSION
LAYER IN PLACE...AND CARRIED LLWS GROUPS AT THESE SITES.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AT LOW LEVELS DURING NEXT SEVERAL
HRS WITH 60KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AT 2-3 KFT AGL THRU ABOUT
10Z. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FROPA BRINGS WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KT AND
GUSTS 20-25 KTS. CEILINGS SLOWLY RETURN VFR BY 18Z THIS AFTN WITH
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD
EVENING. SFC WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z
MONDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR STRONG AND CHANNELED SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS FROM 28 TO 43 KNOTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OPEN LAKE WATERS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS ABATE
BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND
BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THE STRONGER WINDS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002-
005.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/DEAL/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
133 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. CLOUDS WERE ALSO INCREASED TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE
DATA. EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...SUPPORTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT
RAP/HRRR MODELS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...NOW OVER FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL ND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD EXIT
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 04-05Z. LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS STILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEGINNING EAST AND EXPANDING
WESTWARD WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS NOW OVER THE EASTERN ONE HALF OF THE STATE...FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL...INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SHOWERS...INCLUDING A SQUALL REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT
WHICH GENERATED A 35KT WIND GUST. STILL SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
OVER MY NORTH CENTRAL...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER THROUGH 02Z. CLEARING SKIES WEST WILL TREND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS ZERO SO WILL
JUST GO WITH RAIN MID MORNING SUNDAY - MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY WEST
CENTRAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...ALONG WITH MORE SHOWING UP NORTH OF MY NORTHEAST. WILL
THROW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
SHOWERS A TAD MORE ROBUST AND FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL SEND A QUICK
UPDATE TO ACCOMMODATE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS OVER OLIVER
COUNTY PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST. HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
BAND OF SHOWERS NORTH OF BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE COUNTY A FEW RADAR
SCANS AGO. OPTED NOT TO PUT IN THUNDER FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS. SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH...PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SLIDING EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WORKS THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THIS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY...SOME FOG MAY LINGER OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT IN A ROUND OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH
THE MAIN CHANGE BEING INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WITH THE COOL
MORNING TEMPERATURES...A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LEAD WAVE ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 12 UTC SUITE
OF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN UP JUST EAST
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MINIMAL. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN DYNAMIC AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY COINCIDE...HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODELS.
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT KBIS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT AND KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
204 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AS OF 00Z ENTERING NW OH...MARKED BY A VERY THIN BAND
OF MODERATE SHRA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY LIGHT SHRA
CONCENTRATED W OF THE OH RIVER.
TIMING OF FRONT TWEAKED TO LATEST HRRR RUNS. HAVING IT THRU SE OH
BY 06Z...E OF CKB/CRW BY 08Z...AND EXITING THE S ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THINKING POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THRU THE MORNING HOURS AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN
FACT SW VA AND SE WV MAY HOLD ON TO STRATUS UNTIL DUSK. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING OVER TOP LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MODELS SHOWING A GOOD BAND OF LIFT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
MORE. WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW TIMING TWEAKS. A GOOD DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COMBINATION OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA...WILL
RESULT IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NBM DATA WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT COMING ACROSS MID WEEK. THEY ARE ALSO INGESTING THE REMAINS
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FASTER. THIS
RESULTS IN THE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
OVERALL SYSTEM ALREADY INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON
A NEGATIVE TILT THANKS TO THE ABSORPTION OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW CREATING A RELATIVE SHADOW
ZONE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...LEADS TO THE HEAVIER QPF LIFTING TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE WHILE HAVING CAT POPS
AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE QPF WILL
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT BY THESE FACTORS. THUS...WITH THIS AND THE DRY
GROUND...NO WATER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...SO THUNDER IS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POP POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE MAY BE TOO
GENEROUS. IN ANY EVENT...IS SHOWERS DO LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME FLAKES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MOST AREAS GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT IN
FRONTAL SHOWERS WHERE MVFR IS MORE PREVALENT. INCLUDED A FEW
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AS FRONT PASSES. BELIEVE MVFR AND VFR MIX
WILL FOLLOW FRONT BEFORE DOMINANT VFR TAKES HOLD THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG FRONT COULD VARY. TIMING OF ERADICATION OF
MVFR STRATUS SUNDAY WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/25/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L M M H M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H M L L L L L L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M H M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD FORM
IFR CEILINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
933 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MOVE E TONIGHT AND SUN...BRINGING RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL FOLLOW SUN NIGHT
KEEPING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE MON
NIGHT AND TUE SHOULD WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER...BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MOVING
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MOVE CLOSER. RAIN SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD SOAKING
BUT NOTHING MORE. UPDATED FORECAST A BIT EARLIER THIS EVEN TO MOVE
POPS UP IN TIME WEST OF THE VALLEY BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SATELLITE PICS EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON SHOWED A LOW ABOUT 250 NM OFF THE S OREGON COAST...WITH AN
ACTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR 127W ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS STRETCH OUT. WILL SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SPREADING INLAND
LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE BETTER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN EARLY SUN AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INLAND AND A WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION MOVES INLAND. AN AREA OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST SEEN
NEAR THE 300K ISENTROPE WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT SPREADING CHANCES FOR
RAIN INLAND DURING THE MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN UNSTABLE LAYER BELOW 10K
FT THAT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND SUN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS DIP TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
MODELS ALL INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST SUN...EVENTUALLY TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA SUN
EVENING. GRADIENTS LOOK CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM MAKE
LANDFALL SO HIGH WINDS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT EXISTS FOR
SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE COAST SUN AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MON...ESP ACROSS THE
NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS THE
BEST.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL
BRING A SHORT LIVED RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.
.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN MOVES BACK IN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
PLACE. LOW PRES TO APPROACH THE COAST THROUGH SUN...CAUSING CIGS
TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. -SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING. STEADIER RAIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
INLAND SUNDAY MORNING. COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TO FALL INTO MVFR
AROUND SUNRISE. INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUN
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND
WILLAPA HILLS IN SW WA. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE INLAND
TAF SITES BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AM. VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z THEN CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER. RAIN
TO SPREAD IN LATER SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CIGS LIKELY BY AROUND
MIDDAY. E WIND TO AFFECT ERN APPROACHES TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SUN. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO S-SW. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING LOW PRES
SYSTEM NEAR 44N/130W THIS EVENING WITH A CENTRAL PRES NEAR 996 MB.
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 125 NM W OF
NEWPORT BY AROUND 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
FILLING...EXPECT A BURST OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. THE LATEST
FCST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND 03Z RAP ARE TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...WHICH MAY SEE GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KT DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT AS WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THIS EVENT. THERE IS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW... WHICH SHOULD SHELTER THE INNER WATERS
UNTIL THE LOW COMES CLOSED NEAR TO THE INNER WATERS SUN MORNING.
THE LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE S WASHINGTON COAST SUN
EVENING...BUT A REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH...KEEPING GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. AFTER A LULL MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER
SPLITTING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS WED. SHOULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
INCREASING W-SW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SUN. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH
12-15 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW 10 FT LATER MON AND TUE...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM TUE
NIGHT/WED SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEAS IN THE 12-15 FT
RANGE. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 6
PM PDT SUNDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
546 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO
THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH
BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES.
I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.
FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60
OVER THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH
IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES.
A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING
ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING.
PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED
NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1
INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE
TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA.
A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.
WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE INVERSION MAKING IT HARD TO CLEAR OUT
TODAY...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS COMING INTO THE AREA
AND THAT THE CLOUDS OFF LAKE MI ARE BREAKING UP NOW ACROSS
MUCH OF MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
THU...WINDY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO
THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH
BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES.
I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.
FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60
OVER THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH
IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES.
A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING
ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING.
PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED
NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1
INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE
TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA.
A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
TO MID MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS AFTER THIS TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 06Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SPREADING RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A
CONTINUATION OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AT KBFD THRU 07Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MVFR CONDS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 03Z-07Z AND EXPECT A
TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE SE AIRFIELDS /KMDT AND
KLNS/ BY ARND 08Z.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL PA BTWN 07Z-14Z. EXPECT
SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT AT KBFD AFTER 07Z...AS NW FLOW PULLS
DRIER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AT KJST...A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO
NW WITH FROPA TYPICALLY BRINGS A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CIGS...DUE
TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT
KJST BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CIGS SUN MORNING...AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER NW
FLOW TAKES HOLD.
EXAMINATION OF LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS CRITERIA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AT
KBFD/KJST/KIPT...COINCIDENT WITH PASSAGE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATER
SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY SUN AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTH AND WEAKENING BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WETTER STORM SYSTEM
BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER STILL QUITE A
TONGUE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN WITHIN THE 85H-7H INVERSION...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE DRY PER THE LEFTOVER RESIDUAL
WEDGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS HAS ACTED TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT WERE CROSSING THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LOBE OF LIFT/SHOWERS ALONG THE
ACTUAL FRONT JUST WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WITH OVERALL ONLY THE HRRR BRINGING COVERAGE
EAST TO AT LEAST THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS PLAN TO KEEP SOME
HIGHER LIKELY POPS GOING FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT PER CURRENT
PROXIMITY OF THE SHOWERS...WHILE ONLY GOING WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY ON...THEN MORE CHANCE NATURE COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. SOLID
MID DECK CANOPY SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH UNLESS
SHOWERS/EVAPORATION INCREASE SO STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE POOLS BEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MORE SCATTERED NATURE
FURTHER NORTHEAST. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF NC/VA BORDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONT REACHING AN NORFOLK VA TO GSP LINE.
THE MODELS START TO BRING JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY CORRIDOR...OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-
64...HIGHWAY 60 TO RETURN SOME SUN BY 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
OVERALL WILL STAY CLOUDY. HIGHS SHOULD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH
LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 60SS OUT EAST AND THE NC FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ALSO SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL START THE EVENING WITH SPOTTY OCCASIONAL
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WINDS SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTERLY...INCREASING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BUILDS IN.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINTAINING A COOL EAST NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDFLOW. AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RADIATING DEEP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
AS SUCH...BELIEVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPOTTY ON MONDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY WEDGED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKENING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE IT NORTHWARD JOG UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
AGAINST OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY.
BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...TO A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND OTHER PROMINENT EAST FACING SLOPES.
CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...DO
NOT BELIEVE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING AND RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIODS WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER
50S AREAWIDE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR OUR AREA.
WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE WEST AS BETTER INSTABILITY
APPROACHES OUR WESTERN BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE FROM
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CEILINGS WERE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH 12Z/8AM. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HELP SATURATE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO REACH MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 10Z/6AM AND 13Z/9AM. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN OHIO TO WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST. BY 00Z/8PM THE FRONT WILL BE IN NORTH CAROLINA AND
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. BEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE WITH THE FRONT...AND ONCE THE
FRONT PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
HAS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
COMING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WAS GENERATING
SOME RADAR RETURNS AHEAD OF IT. THE 25.05Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
CR-HRRR WEAKEN THESE RETURNS AND DISSIPATE THEM THIS MORNING
BEFORE THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE RETURNS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE
SURFACE...SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 25.00Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE VERY
WEAK AND STAY TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE DOES LOOK TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA WITH A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE A BAND OF WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER OF THE
SAME GENERAL AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE
STARTS TO SPREAD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PEAKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE 3 TO 5
UBAR/S RANGE. ALL OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY
TODAY AS DOES THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF WHILE THE GFS SPREADS SOME
LIGHT RAIN IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A VERY SMALL RAIN
CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THEN INCREASE THESE INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING PAST THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
ALMOST ALL THE MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED TO THE SOLUTION FIRST
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING MID WEEK SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
BECOMES A CLOSED SYSTEM AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING
SOME MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO
SPIN UP SOMEPLACE OVER IOWA OR MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING WITH THIS
THEN MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW. THE RAIN CHANCES
FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL START COME INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL SHOW
60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DECENT RAIN
CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. 925
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE
MAINTAINING ITSELF INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM
AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALL RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
AND TO MAINTAIN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL SHOW A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
RADAR WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 30 TO 35 KTS AT
2000 FT AGL AS OF 25.0430Z. ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH (10 TO 15 KTS IN THE LOWEST FEW
HUNDRED FEET) TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG. IF ANYTHING...WOULD
EXPECT A LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KLSE...SO
REMOVED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND ADDED
BCFG WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AT 200 FT AGL FROM 25.11Z TO
25.13Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM SRN
SASK/ALBERTA AND THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER
ALBERTA WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...NW WINDS
WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE
OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV BRUSHES
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWVS NEAR THE REGION PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF 850-600 MB FGEN WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND
HIGH RES MODELS REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
GREATEST PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY THROUGH SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI
BORDER. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE
BAND AS THE GEM PRODUCES PCPN ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK EXPECTED...
ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IN STRORE WITH BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ENOUGH COOL AIR ON BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO HAVE SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. OUTLOOKS FM CPC INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG EL NINO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE OVERALL LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OVER NORTHERN
MN INTO LK SUPERIOR BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN ON MONDAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH RIBBON OF H85-H7
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD BUT
LIGHT RAIN OVER AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF CWA. LIGHT RAIN MAY LIFT
NORTH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST. APPEARS KEWEENAW MISSES OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH FARTHER NORTH GEM-REGIONAL WOULD BRING SOME
RAIN UP TO HOUGHTON/HANCOCK. DECAYING RIBBON OF MOISTURE LINGERS
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CERTAIN. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR CNTRL IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PERSIST.
ATTN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNS TO DEEPENING TROUGH FM
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND ALSO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER
SCNTRL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DRY LOW-LEVELS
DUE TO HIGH IN THE VCNTY TO PROHIBIT MUCH RAIN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS FOCUSES OVER WEST LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MN SO
THAT IS WHERE LOW POPS WILL RESIDE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ONE PART OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER CNTRL PLAINS WHILE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING
SFC LOWS OVER MANITOBA AND OVER MO/ILL SHOULD RESULT IN SHIELD OF
RAIN LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MOVE INTO CWA. SUPPOSE ESE WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM AS EARLY AS
EVENING OVER UPSLOPE OF CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY LOW CHANCE.
RAIN SPREADS OVER ALL CWA BY DAYBREAK WED. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH
OF WED AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ONLY INCREASES DUE TO PHASING OF
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FM
THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW OVER MO/ILL BECOMES MAIN
PLAYER...DEEPENING TO 990-995MB WHILE REACHING SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF
UPR MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY WED AND TO AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES OVER LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z THU. DESPITE LOW CROSSING THE CWA ON WED...FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE VIA THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO KEEP
DRY SLOT AFFECTS TO A MINIMUM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE
QUARTER IF NOT ONE HALF INCH SHOULD RESULT FM THE SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN
ALL THE INTERACTIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ALOFT...SPECIFICS IN
RAIN TIMING/EXTENT AND AMOUNTS MAY STILL CHANGE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. PROGS OF H85 TEMPS AND 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF POINT TO COOLEST AIR STAYING OVER MN
AND WI WHILE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR OVER UPR MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS AT 12Z THU ARE -2C OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4C BY 00Z. LK SUPERIOR TEMPS ARE 8-
10C...SO PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THU. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THU LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z FRIDAY BUT WITH LESS
CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKING AT PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THAT TIME. GFS IS
COLDER AND WOULD POINT TO SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY
NCNTRL AND EAST NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF
OR GEM IN BRINGING QPF INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. USED CONSENSUS WHICH ONLY HAS SMALL CHANCES.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRES TROUGH OR
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING AT IWD/CMX AND
AT SAW THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING TOWARD WI AND ALONG THE STALLED LOW PRES TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
MVFR CIGS AGAIN TO IWD AND SAW BY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 25 KTS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
941 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW
MONTANA THO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK...PUSHING EAST. OTHER RETURNS
WERE COMING FROM BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. WHEN THESE RETURNS
MOVED OVER KDIK AND KHEI NO PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED AT THE
SURFACE. WITH THAT...HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS AND ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE...NOT ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND...A TRACE...THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHER CONCERN IS PATCHY FOG PARTS OF THE NORTH AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. MINOT IS A TROUBLE SPOT WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. AREA WEB
CAMS SHOW FOG AT MINOT...THE AFB...CARPIO AND WHITE
SHIELD...THROUGH GARRISON AND ON OVER TOWARD NEW ROCKFORD. WILL
KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EXPECT
CLEARING AS WIND STIRS UP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSION INCREASES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR WERE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH
FOG FORMATION MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME FOG EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME
OBSERVATION STATIONS. GROUND FOG NOTED HERE IN THE BISMARCK AREA.
THUS THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HAS
ADDRESSED THIS WELL. OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST EITHER SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS JUST VIRGA MOVING
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
EASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF MORNING
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AREAS AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING...SUPPORTED WELL
WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODEL RUNS. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN IN EASTERN
MONTANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 13Z...A WINTRY MIX AND/OR A FEW FLAKES OF
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE 4-
CORNERS ON MONDAY MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY...DEEPENING AND EMERGING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINATING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOLLOWS THE MAIN UPPER
LONGWAVE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MONDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG VORT ENERGY
IMPULSES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE SECOND COLDER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S.
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE DRY SIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN...KMOT...AND
PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 16-17Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE KBIS-
KJMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT OF SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR WERE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH
FOG FORMATION MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME FOG EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME
OBSERVATION STATIONS. GROUND FOG NOTED HERE IN THE BISMARCK AREA.
THUS THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HAS
ADDRESSED THIS WELL. OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST EITHER SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS JUST VIRGA MOVING
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
EASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF MORNING
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AREAS AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING...SUPPORTED WELL
WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODEL RUNS. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN IN EASTERN
MONTANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 13Z...A WINTRY MIX AND/OR A FEW FLAKES OF
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE 4-
CORNERS ON MONDAY MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY...DEEPENING AND EMERGING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINATING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOLLOWS THE MAIN UPPER
LONGWAVE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MONDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG VORT ENERGY
IMPULSES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE SECOND COLDER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S.
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE DRY SIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KJMS AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
905 AM PDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND EAST
WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER...SIMILAR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
OREGON COAST SUN MORNING...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. A SURFACE
FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND S OREGON COAST...PUSHING E
OVER SW OREGON...WHILE MAKING SLOWER PROGRESS NE OVER NW OREGON. A
BAND OF RAIN PRECEDED THE FRONT...DRIVEN BY MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
MID LEVELS AROUND 300K ISENTROPE. OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INLAND TODAY...EARLIEST IN THE S PART OF THE FORECAST...LATER
IN THE DAY IN THE N. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SHOWERY
PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE. LAYER
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE 10K TO 15K FT DEEP...DEEPEST IN THE N.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE B.C. COAST. THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NW OREGON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS THIS TROUGH NEARS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 7000 FEET MONDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT MOUNT HOOD...
ADAMS...AND SAINT HELENS MAY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW
NEAR THEIR PEAKS.
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE PACIFIC NW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TJ
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN MOVES BACK IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN
ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 TO 200 NM WEST OF KONP AT 15Z
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED...
W ITH THE KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT AT -7.7 MB AS OF 15Z. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 KT IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS OF THE WEST COLUMBIA GORGE.
GRADIENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS NEAR THE WEST COLUMBIA GORGE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE
WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CIGS. COASTAL AREAS
TO SEE INCREASING MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 19Z...THEN A MIX OF MVFR
AND LOW-END VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNS
AFTER 00Z. E WIND 20-30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND
OVER THE W END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WHERE GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE
LIKELY. MAY BE AREAS OF LLWS WITH S WIND ABOVE 2K FEET. WIND WILL
SWITCH TO SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 998 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 45N 128W AT
7 AM. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE AND WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNINGS
FOR THE SRN WATERS...BUT BASED MORE ON GUSTS THAN SUSTAINED
SPEEDS. BUOY 46015...NEAR PORT ORFORD...HAS HAD GUSTS 40-45 KT
SINCE 12Z. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE SRN OUTER WATERS.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OVER THE
SRN INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE COMPONENT CONTINUES OVER THE NRN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL.
LATEST NAM AND 13Z RUC SHOW THE LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AT 00Z MON. GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OREGON NRN WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z GFS INDICATING 30
KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES.
AFTER A LULL MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER SPLITTING
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS WED. SHOULD SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
INCREASING W-SW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 12-15 FT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW
10 FT LATER MON AND TUE...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEAS IN THE 12-15 FT RANGE. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM
CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PDT MONDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
820 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO
THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FCST BASED ON LATEST TEMP
AND RADAR TRENDS. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST WEST
OF FIG-BGM-AFJ LINE. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN AN ISOLD -SHRA OVER
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH
BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES.
I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.
FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60
OVER THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH
IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES.
A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING
ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING.
PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED
NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1
INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE
TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA.
A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WIDE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS AS OF 7 AM.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.
WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE INVERSION MAKING IT HARD TO CLEAR OUT
TODAY...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS COMING INTO THE AREA
AND THAT THE CLOUDS OFF LAKE MI ARE BREAKING UP NOW ACROSS
MUCH OF MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFT.
12Z TAFS SENT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
THU...WINDY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
735 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A QUIET START TO
THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESO ANAL INDICATES THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW MOVING UP
INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST RAIN SIMILARLY
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DWINDLE AND RACE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST MOVED THROUGH
BRADFORD...ON SCHEDULE TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A FAST DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES.
I LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
A DEVELOPING NW...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S OVER THE SE. HIGHS OVER THE NW WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.
FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BIG HIGH BUBBLE SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIGHT DAY FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 OVER THE NW TO NEAR 60
OVER THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY WHICH
IS MADE TO CAPTURE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GULF STATES.
A STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...TRACKING
ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GR LAKES THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MADE TO SWING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA LATER WED OR WED EVENING.
PWATS OF 1.25 - 1.75"...OR 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ARE SURGED
NORTH ON A STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS TIMED INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GEFS SHOWS A HIGH PROB OF AT LEAST 1
INCH OF RAIN/24 HOURS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
PAINTING QPF IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. ENSEMBLES INDICATE AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE NOT LIKELY...PROBABLY DUE
TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CHUGS THROUGH THE AREA.
A COLDER POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRIP THE REGION THU-FRI
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETURN FAIR/DRY WX CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WIDE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS AS OF 7 AM.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE AREA.
WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE INVERSION MAKING IT HARD TO CLEAR OUT
TODAY...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS COMING INTO THE AREA
AND THAT THE CLOUDS OFF LAKE MI ARE BREAKING UP NOW ACROSS
MUCH OF MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFT.
12Z TAFS SENT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
THU...WINDY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...RAIN THIS MORNING REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RAP MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING...AND THE NAM MODEL DEPICTS THIS AS WELL. SO...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS SHORTLY AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 20
PERCENT FOR SE TN/SW NC...TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS NRN
PLATEAU AND SW VA COUNTIES.
THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...WHICH WILL
BE TWEAKED AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINT
TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 59 65 56 / 40 50 80 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 55 65 55 / 40 40 70 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 55 65 54 / 40 40 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 52 63 50 / 50 40 60 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
PER LATEST HRRR MODEL TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF MID STATE
WHERE RAINFALL/RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOST PROMINENT. ALSO TWEAKED
HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
LIGHT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF PER LATEST
HRRR MODEL RUNS. MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT CKV/BNA BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUED MVFR
AT CSV. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
934 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SUNDAY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GREATEST FROM BUCKINGHAM TO AMHERST TO BECKLEY
THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG THE FRONT WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND THETA-E RIDGING OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE 12Z HRRR SHOWS THIS WELL WITH BAND OF SHOWERS SHIFTING SE
TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE-NEW RIVER VALLEY-SMITH MTN LAKE-
LYNCHBURG CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN LIKELY...AND WILL TAPER TO SLIGHT
TO NO CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS BAND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND BACKED OFF A
FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
STILL QUESTION OF HOW MUCH DRIER AIR CAN GAIN HOLD FROM THE NORTH
BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE SUNSHINE COULD WARM TEMPS UP SOME AROUND
LYNCHBURG TO LEXINGTON...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE BREAKS SHOWING UP IN
THE NC PIEDMONT TOWARD DANVILLE. KEPT FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LATEST MODEL PROJECTION SHOW THE FRONT MOVING INTO NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BUT THE 850 MB FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
YORK WHICH WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE BEST COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING
AREA WITH ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS INDICATED A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THAT NORTHERN EDGE. HAVE BROUGHT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD
COVER INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT SO HAVE RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NEW YORK...WILL WEDGE
SOUTH INTO GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA MONDAY. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE WEDGE WILL PUSH IN DRIER COOLER AIR ON NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. THESE TWO
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERSECT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT EDGES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND NORTH
CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME SUN AND COOL AIR
TOWARDS THE NORTH...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PEAKING ABOVE 60F
MONDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVES FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA TRACK NORTHWARD. ONE WAVE WITH
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS TRACKS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...HEADING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE WEDGE. EVEN THOUGH THIS WAVE WILL
HAVE TROPICAL ORIGINS...THIS WARM RAIN WILL ENHANCE THE WEDGE MAKING
TUESDAY A VERY COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE
40S. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BRING
A PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THIS TROPICAL SHORT WAVE IS TRACKING OVER A WEDGE AND LIKE
THE OCT 4TH EVENT...MODELS MAY BE OVER DONE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A 35-50KT EASTERLY JET WHICH COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
WEDGE WILL REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA AND THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
NOT MIX DOWN. MODEL ARE ALSO DISPLAYING A DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDING
WHICH IS ANOTHER HINT THAT THESE WINDS WILL NOT MIX DOWN. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...WE ARE FORECASTING AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WITH UP TO TWO INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH OUR RECENT DRY
PERIOD...WE SHOULD BE TO HANDLE ALL THIS RAIN WITH NO PROBLEM. HYDRO
CONCERNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAYBE HEIGHTEN IF THE WEDGE MANAGES
TO ERODE AND ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES TO
OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA ASIDE
FROM UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDFLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH OCCURRENCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
MODELS ALSO SHOWED A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KBCB
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
INCREASES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER WEDGE. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
555 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
HAS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
COMING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WAS GENERATING
SOME RADAR RETURNS AHEAD OF IT. THE 25.05Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
CR-HRRR WEAKEN THESE RETURNS AND DISSIPATE THEM THIS MORNING
BEFORE THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE RETURNS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE
SURFACE...SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 25.00Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE VERY
WEAK AND STAY TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE DOES LOOK TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA WITH A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE A BAND OF WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER OF THE
SAME GENERAL AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE
STARTS TO SPREAD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PEAKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE 3 TO 5
UBAR/S RANGE. ALL OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY
TODAY AS DOES THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF WHILE THE GFS SPREADS SOME
LIGHT RAIN IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A VERY SMALL RAIN
CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THEN INCREASE THESE INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING PAST THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
ALMOST ALL THE MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED TO THE SOLUTION FIRST
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING MID WEEK SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
BECOMES A CLOSED SYSTEM AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING
SOME MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO
SPIN UP SOMEPLACE OVER IOWA OR MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING WITH THIS
THEN MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW. THE RAIN CHANCES
FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL START COME INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL SHOW
60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DECENT RAIN
CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. 925
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE
MAINTAINING ITSELF INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM
AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALL RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
AND TO MAINTAIN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL SHOW A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED N/S FROM EASTERN MN THROUGH
CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE MISSISSIPI
RIVER VALLEY HAS LED TO SOME LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. LOOK
FOR THIS TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING SOME
VFR ALTOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY AFFECT KRST/KLSE FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. LOOK
FOR THIS MID-CLOUD TO THEN INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM SRN
SASK/ALBERTA AND THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A WEAK SHRTWV
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER
ALBERTA WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...NW WINDS
WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLE
OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV BRUSHES
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWVS NEAR THE REGION PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF 850-600 MB FGEN WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND
HIGH RES MODELS REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
GREATEST PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY THROUGH SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI
BORDER. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE
BAND AS THE GEM PRODUCES PCPN ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK EXPECTED...
ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IN STRORE WITH BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ENOUGH COOL AIR ON BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO HAVE SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. OUTLOOKS FM CPC INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG EL NINO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE OVERALL LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OVER NORTHERN
MN INTO LK SUPERIOR BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SFC TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN ON MONDAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH RIBBON OF H85-H7
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD BUT
LIGHT RAIN OVER AT LEAST SOUTH HALF OF CWA. LIGHT RAIN MAY LIFT
NORTH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST. APPEARS KEWEENAW MISSES OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH FARTHER NORTH GEM-REGIONAL WOULD BRING SOME
RAIN UP TO HOUGHTON/HANCOCK. DECAYING RIBBON OF MOISTURE LINGERS
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CERTAIN. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR CNTRL IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PERSIST.
ATTN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNS TO DEEPENING TROUGH FM
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND ALSO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA OVER
SCNTRL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DRY LOW-LEVELS
DUE TO HIGH IN THE VCNTY TO PROHIBIT MUCH RAIN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS FOCUSES OVER WEST LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MN SO
THAT IS WHERE LOW POPS WILL RESIDE ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ONE PART OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER CNTRL PLAINS WHILE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING
SFC LOWS OVER MANITOBA AND OVER MO/ILL SHOULD RESULT IN SHIELD OF
RAIN LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MOVE INTO CWA. SUPPOSE ESE WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM AS EARLY AS
EVENING OVER UPSLOPE OF CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. PRETTY LOW CHANCE.
RAIN SPREADS OVER ALL CWA BY DAYBREAK WED. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH
OF WED AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ONLY INCREASES DUE TO PHASING OF
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FM
THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW OVER MO/ILL BECOMES MAIN
PLAYER...DEEPENING TO 990-995MB WHILE REACHING SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF
UPR MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY WED AND TO AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES OVER LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z THU. DESPITE LOW CROSSING THE CWA ON WED...FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE VIA THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEAR TO KEEP
DRY SLOT AFFECTS TO A MINIMUM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE
QUARTER IF NOT ONE HALF INCH SHOULD RESULT FM THE SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN
ALL THE INTERACTIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ALOFT...SPECIFICS IN
RAIN TIMING/EXTENT AND AMOUNTS MAY STILL CHANGE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. PROGS OF H85 TEMPS AND 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF POINT TO COOLEST AIR STAYING OVER MN
AND WI WHILE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR OVER UPR MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS AT 12Z THU ARE -2C OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4C BY 00Z. LK SUPERIOR TEMPS ARE 8-
10C...SO PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THU. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THU LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY 12Z FRIDAY BUT WITH LESS
CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKING AT PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THAT TIME. GFS IS
COLDER AND WOULD POINT TO SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY
NCNTRL AND EAST NEAR LK SUPERIOR INTO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF
OR GEM IN BRINGING QPF INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. USED CONSENSUS WHICH ONLY HAS SMALL CHANCES.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR THERE LATE TONIGHT.
AT KCMX...WILL GO VFR SHORTLY AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF THEM. FOR KSAW...MVFR CLOUDS WITH
UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT WILL BE STUBBORN TO LEAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL GO LIGHT ENOUGH BY THIS EVENING TO
DISSIPATE THE MVFR DECK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KSAW
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 25 KTS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
THE FOG WAS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND HAD LIFTED
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FROM JUST NORTH OF DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH
OF JAMESTOWN. HAVE MAINTAINED SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST SOUTH
HALF.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW
MONTANA THO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK...PUSHING EAST. OTHER RETURNS
WERE COMING FROM BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. WHEN THESE RETURNS
MOVED OVER KDIK AND KHEI NO PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED AT THE
SURFACE. WITH THAT...HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS AND ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE...NOT ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND...A TRACE...THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHER CONCERN IS PATCHY FOG PARTS OF THE NORTH AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. MINOT IS A TROUBLE SPOT WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. AREA WEB
CAMS SHOW FOG AT MINOT...THE AFB...CARPIO AND WHITE
SHIELD...THROUGH GARRISON AND ON OVER TOWARD NEW ROCKFORD. WILL
KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EXPECT
CLEARING AS WIND STIRS UP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSION INCREASES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR WERE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS WITH
FOG FORMATION MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME FOG EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS IN THOSE AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME
OBSERVATION STATIONS. GROUND FOG NOTED HERE IN THE BISMARCK AREA.
THUS THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HAS
ADDRESSED THIS WELL. OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST EITHER SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS JUST VIRGA MOVING
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
EASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF MORNING
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AREAS AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING...SUPPORTED WELL
WITHIN THE CURRENT RAP/HRRR MODEL RUNS. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN IN EASTERN
MONTANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 13Z...A WINTRY MIX AND/OR A FEW FLAKES OF
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE 4-
CORNERS ON MONDAY MORNING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY...DEEPENING AND EMERGING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINATING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOLLOWS THE MAIN UPPER
LONGWAVE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MONDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG VORT ENERGY
IMPULSES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE SECOND COLDER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF RAIN BECOME CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S.
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE DRY SIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN...KMOT...NORTH
DAKOTA WAS LIFTING AT OF 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE
OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT OF
SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HEADLINE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE CONTINUED RAINS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK IN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL
INTERACTION...
CURRENTLY...A STRONG AND COMPACT SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH WITH TIME.
ZONAL BUT BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN CONUS AS A STRONG S/W WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER...MORE FOCUSED LIFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THE DIURNAL CURVE REMAINS NEARLY FLAT. IN FACT...MANY
LOCATIONS DID NOT GET OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL GO A LONG WAY IN
DETERMINING HOW THE DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT PLAYS OUT
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH AGREE THAT A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
US ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD STUNT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
GULF LOW PRESSURE. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
WILL PREVENT PRECIP FROM SPREADING TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG GRADIENT IN PRECIP
TOTALS ON MONDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY
EXITS...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW PRESSURE TO RESUME ITS PROGRESS
NORTH WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BY LATE TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL SWEEP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND
EVENTUALLY THE MID-SOUTH. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PHASE
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER IN THE WEAK. THE INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EJECTING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
IN THE LONG-TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME AMPLIFIES AND
BECOMES MUCH MORE ACTIVE. AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG EQUATORWARD LATE IN THE
WEEK...INDUCING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE LOW SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP EAST. FOR THIS REASON...PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT
REASONABLY LOW UNTIL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM DECREASES.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MOIST
TROPICAL AIR OVERRIDES A NEARLY SATURATED AND COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST INVERSION.
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT RAINFALL TO CONTRACT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARER THE APPROACHING TROPICAL LOW. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
MVFR/ISOLATED VFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL. 15Z HRRR SHOWS IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
EVENING...WHILE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH
DIMINISHING RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES FOR MEM WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY JUST AFTER THE
18Z TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH OUTER BOUND RAINFALL AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL LOW.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOME PACKING OF 850 MB
ISOTHERMS OVER ERN KY AND W VA...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO WISE
AND RUSSELL COUNTIES OF SW VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED LOW
CEILINGS AND POOR VISBY AT LONESOME PINE (LNP). HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL APPEARED TO BE DISSIPATING ACROSS ERN
KY...WITH LATEST RAP MODEL RUN NOT PRODUCING MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THIS MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE...RAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS THEN NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS NORTH FROM THE LA-MS COAST. THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE E-SE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AS INDICATED IN THE RAIN AMOUNT AND TEMP GRIDS FOR THOSE PERIODS.
MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MINOR MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT...WHILE
RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM SHOULD NOT POSE ANY CONCERNS.
THE COOLER MAV/GFS MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED BETTER FOR AREAS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS NOT A FACTOR. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR MOS
MINS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WITH THE CHANGING
SEASONS THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
INCREASING THE FREQUENCY OF STORM SYSTEM PASSAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR
THIS ACTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME GROUP WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN RISE EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAINFALL. A DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE EVER STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES...ANOTHER
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING ON SATURDAY AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BE ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 64 56 62 / 60 80 80 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 64 54 63 / 40 70 80 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 64 55 61 / 30 70 80 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 63 51 61 / 30 60 70 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/TH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1259 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015/
UPDATE...
TWO RELATIVELY MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE DIURNAL CURVES HAVE BEEN
NEARLY FLAT THIS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THIS REGION...PROGRESSING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE I40
CORRIDOR. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
AREA-WIDE. THERE SIMPLY IS NOT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT CARRYING THIS THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
FALL HAS OFFICIALLY ARRIVED.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER
60S. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH AREA EARLIER ON SATURDAY IS
NOW JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH FURTHER EAST OR SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN MORE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO SPREAD MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT MORE RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. RAINY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL START TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE RAINY PERIOD WE WILL BE
EXPERIENCING WILL COME TO AN END.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS MEAN ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MOIST
TROPICAL AIR OVERRIDES A NEARLY SATURATED AND COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST INVERSION.
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT RAINFALL TO CONTRACT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARER THE APPROACHING TROPICAL LOW. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
MVFR/ISOLATED VFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL. 15Z HRRR SHOWS IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
EVENING...WHILE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH
DIMINISHING RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES FOR MEM WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY JUST AFTER THE
18Z TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH OUTER BOUND RAINFALL AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL LOW.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
HAS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
COMING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WAS GENERATING
SOME RADAR RETURNS AHEAD OF IT. THE 25.05Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
CR-HRRR WEAKEN THESE RETURNS AND DISSIPATE THEM THIS MORNING
BEFORE THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE RETURNS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE
SURFACE...SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 25.00Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE VERY
WEAK AND STAY TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE DOES LOOK TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA WITH A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE A BAND OF WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER OF THE
SAME GENERAL AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE
STARTS TO SPREAD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PEAKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE 3 TO 5
UBAR/S RANGE. ALL OF THE HI-RES MESO MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY
TODAY AS DOES THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF WHILE THE GFS SPREADS SOME
LIGHT RAIN IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A VERY SMALL RAIN
CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THEN INCREASE THESE INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING PAST THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
ALMOST ALL THE MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED TO THE SOLUTION FIRST
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING MID WEEK SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
BECOMES A CLOSED SYSTEM AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING
SOME MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO
SPIN UP SOMEPLACE OVER IOWA OR MISSOURI TUESDAY EVENING WITH THIS
THEN MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER CLOSED LOW. THE RAIN CHANCES
FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL START COME INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
DEFORMATION AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL SHOW
60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DECENT RAIN
CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. 925
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE
MAINTAINING ITSELF INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM
AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALL RAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
AND TO MAINTAIN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL SHOW A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 1ZZ MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THIS PERIOD...WITH LOWER CIGS AND ANY SHRA MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/
NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THE
MOISTURE WILL MAINLY BE MID LEVEL WITH CLOUDS/CIGS AROUND THE 10K FT
LEVEL. THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING BR/FG...AND LEFT TAFS AS P6SM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.
WEAKER GRADIENTS THRU TONIGHT/MON MORNING...FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 10KT RANGE THIS PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS