Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/24/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1142 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES
OVER THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SPANISH PEAKS. LIKELY SEEING SOME
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE CULEBRA RANGE AND SPANISH PEAKS...BUT
HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT SO CURRENT HEADLINES
LOOK ON TARGET. STILL LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A LULL THU MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
CO. LATEST NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN ITS POOR PERFORMANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT
NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE SOLUTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS
REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES
PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.

SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF
THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH
VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE
WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE
OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. AS SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD EXPECT CIGS TO DROP FOR
KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS...WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR
CATEGORY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VIS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE.

MTNS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN WIDESPREAD -RA/SN. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

126 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING...AND SLIDING OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAYNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING ARE
TO LOWER POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT BUT
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE THROUGH TORONTO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VAD WIND PROFILE
SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS... THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY
TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE
INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C
T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C
TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C.
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.

FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS
THE VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
MID AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FCST AREA MOVES INTO FAST MVNG 500 HPA FLOW AS A SERIES OF RIDGES
AND TROFS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. FRI NIGHT RIDGING AT ALL
LEVELS SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE
REGION...CLEAR SKIES...13 PLUS HOURS OF DARKNESS AND IDEAL
RADITIONAL COOLING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH
SOME ISOLD TEENS IN THE N MTN VLYS OF HAM/HERK CO.

THE 500HPA RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A TROF MOVES INTO THE GRT LKS
SAT NT AND ACROSS THE RGN SUN. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THE
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
REBOUND IN TEMPS UNDER COBALT BLUE SUNNY SKIES. BY AFTN TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 50S REGION WIDE...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCRG FM THE WEST AS
THE CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS.

THE CDFNT AND ITS MAIN 500 HPA SHORT WV PASS THROUGH THE RGN SAT
NT...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING N OF FCA. CLOUDS
AND SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
PERIPHERY OF FCA...BUT IN THE FAST 500 HPA WNW FLOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEPART QUICKLY AS THE NXT SFC HIGH BUILDS FM W GRT LKS SUN
AFTN TO SITING OVER THE NE USA MON MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 40S SAT NT... AND RECOVER TO THE 50S
SUN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE MEAN MDL RH DRIES OUT
NICELY SUN...THE AMNT OF CLEARING IS QUESTIONABLE AS INVERSION
REMAINS ARND 5KFT...AND MOST STATISTICAL GUID RETAINS BKN/OVC
CLOUDS. HWVR 7 HPA SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS WILL CERTAINLY
PROMOTE MIXING IN THE WAKE OF CDFNT...AND EXPECT DCRG CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN AND CLEARING SUN NT..SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER E GRT LKS
KEEPING SOME N-NE GRADIENT OVER FCA...AND LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE
COMMON SUN NT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA CRESTING
ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN
THE TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AGAIN IN THE
TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1102 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO BRINGING FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING ARE
TO LOWER POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS... THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY
TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE S TO SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE M60S TO L70S FROM THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE AREA...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST...EXCEPT OVER
THE MTNS WHERE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT COULD GET INTO THE M70S. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS...EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE S/SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO
THE W/NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C
T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C
TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C.
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. SOME ISOLATED LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY
RISE OVER THE EAST COAST FOR FAIR AND DRY WX TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A QUICK CONNECTION TO THE GULF IS POSSIBLE
BASED ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE W/SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND
LIKELY POPS WERE USED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE U30S
TO M40S BASED ON WET BULB COOLING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY SOME MORE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE REACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE FA
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA CRESTING ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE.

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1010 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRINGS A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DELIVERS SHOWERS
SUNDAY...AND COLDER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1010 AM UPDATE...

SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA
AT LATE MORNING AND TEMPS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S. AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS STILL COVERED NORTHERN MA...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70 TO 75
DEGREE RANGE...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE
ISLANDS/HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MAIN QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. AN AREA OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.5 C/KM WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS
MAY BE UNDER DOING THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. ALSO...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/NEAR
ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE REALLY NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS TOO WELL...BUT LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY MORE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DURING THE
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SIMILAR TIMING AMONG THE MODELS FOR COLD FROPA LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING SKIES AS WELL AS
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME WIND THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS AT 925 MB BY
ABOUT 10C OVERNIGHT. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 30S TO
UPPER 40S. OUR MIN TEMPS WILL COME FROM THIS RANGE.

FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL SWING OVER NEW ENGLAND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. RAW MODEL DATA INDICATES MOIST AIR BELOW 850 MB
WHICH SUNSHINE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAY CONVERT INTO DIURNAL
CLOUDS. HOWEVER NONE OF THE MODEL GRID FIELDS INDICATE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SKY COVER. WE WILL GO WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON SKY COVER
VALUES THAN THE GRIDS PROVIDE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS TEMPTED TO GO.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRIER AND COOLER INTO SAT
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN
* RISK FOR MUCH COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
* RISK FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN SWING FROM ZONAL TO MORE MERIDIONAL BY
LATE WEEKEND...HANDLING OF THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION SCHEME BY
GUIDANCE WILL BE KEY IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WITH THE 22.00Z
UPDATE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LENDING TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SENSIBLE WX DETAILS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY IN THE TIMING AND DEPTH
OF THE SHORTWAVE IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH...BUT DO AT LEAST AGREE
SOMEWHAT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD OCCUR. IN FACT...LATEST ENSEMBLE
PROBS FROM BOTH THE GEFS/ECENS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PROBS OF
PRECIP VALUES EXCEEDING A HALF INCH FOR THU-FRI ALONG WITH PWATS 1-2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BOTH ALSO FEATURE A TIGHTLY WOUND
OCCLUSION...BUT HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING.

GIVEN THESE AGREEMENTS...FEEL THAT CONTINUING WITH THE GENERAL BLEND
OF GUIDANCE WILL WORK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE
TO ADD A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF FOR THE SUN FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ENSEMBLES FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS FAMILIES ARE MORE FAVORABLE
TO THIS SOLUTION THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER GFS.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...

HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR MINS. ONE ISSUE AS POINTED OUT IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THE RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHICH WOULD LIMIT COOLING THERE. IN FACT...SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ON THE ORDER OF 12-14C WITH WINDS GENERALLY NNELY AND REASONABLY
TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WILL BE FEATURING CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE LOW RISK OF A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THANKS TO THE DIFFERENCE IN SST AND SOME
INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE WELL MIXED BL. EXPECT WARMER MINS TOO
AS A RESULT.

BY SAT... CORE OF THE HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING E ALLOWING FOR SOME
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN MIXING TO
H92 WHERE TEMPS HOVER AROUND +2 TO +4C AND LATE DAY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MID TO UPPER 50S SEEM LIKE A REASONABLE MIDDLE GROUND. DRY
WX PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...

VERY ROBUST LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUN.
INITIALLY PRECIP WILL START IN THE W EARLY SUN MORNING IN WARM
ADVECTIVE REGIME. THE DECISION TO LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF TIMING/QPF
WITH THIS UPDATE WILL HAVE TWO CONSEQUENCES...IT WILL FEATURE SLOWER
POPS...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING NEAR THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY
SUN EVENING. IT WILL ALSO MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTAL QPF VALUES.
PWATS WILL ACTUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER AS IT
INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EXITING
HIGH PRES...SO WE ARE FAR FROM TALKING DROUGHT-BUSTING NUMBERS HERE.
FOR NOW EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALUES AROUND 0.1 INCHES RATHER THAN THE
0.005 OR LESS THE GFS IS SHOWING. THE INCREASED LLJ ON THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED
BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

MON THRU TUE...

WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE FEATURES DRY HIGH PRES...THE
TRUE DIFFERENCE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. ECMWF HAS
HIGHER PROBABILITY THAT H85 WILL DIP BELOW 0C AND H92 CLOSER TO +2C
ON MON...LINGERING INTO TUE. SO EXPECT HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING MON NIGHT IT APPEARS...SO WILL LEAN
COOLER THAN THE BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THIS ALSO MEANS TUE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON THANKS TO A COOLER START.

WED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...

WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING
PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES E OF THE ROCKIES...THERE IS ALSO
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FOR A FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST
BRINGING PRECIP IN BY WED...SO WOULD LIKE TO KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE
A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST AGREEMENT FOR THU-FR
THAT SOME TYPE OF STRONG OCCLUSION COULD IMPACT THE REGION...WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED GUIDANCE YIELDS. THERE
ARE SEVERAL WRINKLES TO IRON OUT YET...BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL EVENT. MORE TO COME YET.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO
MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOLD OUTS NEAR THE NH
BORDER WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON. SW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TODAY/THIS EVE WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. VFR WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MAYBE
BRIEF MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER BY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO INTENSIFY A
BIT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT...VFR WILL DOMINATE INTO FRI. SOME SW
WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN...EXPECT WEST
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
INLAND AND 20-25 KNOTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRI NIGHT THRU MON...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WITH OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR...SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BOTH AHEAD OF AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS THE ISSUE SAT
NIGHT...OCCASIONAL LOWER VSBYS IN SHOWERS THE ISSUE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD GO AWAY AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SUPPORT FOR GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS. THIS WIND WILL PUSH UP THE SEAS...WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON THE EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WIND
WILL DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR 20-25
KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 5 FEET WILL LINGER ON PARTS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON MOST OF THE
WATERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS AIR MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE OCEAN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A STRAY SHOWER. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO BRING WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRI NIGHT
SUCH THAT BY SAT AM...MOST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CAN LIKELY
BE DROPPED. HIGH PRES IN PLACE WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY SUN...THEN CROSS THE
WATERS LATER IN THE DAY ON SUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER THERE IS A
LOW RISK FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS WHILE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. EXPECT GUSTS TO
APPROACH 25 KT ALLOWING SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FT ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

825 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 825 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY
BEEN LIGHT BUT REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE
THROUGH TORONTO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ENTIRE AREA BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS...
THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY TODAY WITH
TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30
TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE
INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C
T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C
TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C.
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.

FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS THE
VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID
AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS WHERE
SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
OVER THE EAST COAST FOR FAIR AND DRY WX TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A QUICK CONNECTION TO THE GULF IS POSSIBLE
BASED ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE W/SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND
LIKELY POPS WERE USED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE U30S
TO M40S BASED ON WET BULB COOLING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY SOME MORE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE REACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA WITH
THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE FA SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL
IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE.

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

353 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND UPSTATE NY. THIS FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD REACH THE
POCONOS AROUND SUNSET AND I-95 BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE AND FORCING IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT BUT THERE WAS ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE FOR A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PA HIGHLANDS. IN THIS TYPE
OF SETUP, THESE WEAKLY FORCED SHOWERS TEND TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE
CROSS MOUNTAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR AND NCEP
WRF ARW AND NMM ALL SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND 00Z. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY AND EVENTUALLY NLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. CAA ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THOUGH MIXING DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT DEEP. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA. DESPITE THE CAA, MIN TEMP
FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. THE
CAA WILL PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS NLY WINDS
ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE MOST
FREQUENT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN HOW GUIDANCE OFTEN UNDERDOES THE EXTENT OF THE CAA STRATOCU
THAT DEVELOPS, SIDED WITH THE NAM, WHICH HINTS AT SOME CLOUDS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE. GENERALLY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND
NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HEATING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 10-15F LOWER THAN THEY ARE TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO FOR LATE OCTOBER.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT, TOWARD EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING, PROVIDING
FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TIMING OF THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THE BEST TIME LOOKS TO BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR HEAVILY FAVORED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A CAVEAT THOUGH
AS STRATOCU BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE CIGS NEAR 3 KFT BETWEEN
06-12Z. THIS LIKELIHOOD OF IT BEING MORE THAN SCT IS LOW AND THUS
MVFR WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE 18Z TAF.

WHILE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES, THE COVERAGE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
ANY IMPACTS ON CIGS AND VSBYS WOULD BE MINIMAL ANYWAY.

SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS BECOME WLY BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING TO N-
NWLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 15 KT AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN EAST
MONDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
SWLY WINDS 15-20 KT THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH FROPA AND THEN N-NWLY LATE.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS CAA ALOFT OCCURS ABOVE THE WARMER OCEAN
WATERS. BASED ON WHAT`S AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER, ISSUED A SCA FOR ANZ450-451 FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM FRIDAY.
IT IS A MARGINAL SETUP FOR 25 KT GUSTS BUT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE A HEADLINE. THE GRADIENT IS EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEAKER FARTHER
SOUTH, SO GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE COMMON.

SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FT THRU THIS
EVENING TO 3-4 FT BY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST IN THE
LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

ISSUED BY NWS LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST
MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH
PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND
OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO
LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING
LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE
LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN
SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER
MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE
MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR
THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO
UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY
SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER
30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS
LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE
MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM
VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* NONE.

AUTEN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA EFFECTING ALL SITES. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA TOMORROW AND BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO EACH SITE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE
VCSH AT ALL SITES DURING THE MORNING. CLOUD HEIGHTS WITH THE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE AT 3KFT...MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE SHOWS
WINDS 10KTS OR LESS TODAY AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL AS WIND
BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AUTEN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH.

AUTEN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR PSBL. SW WIND.

SATURDAY...CHC SHRA EARLY. IMPROVING TO VFR. W WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. NE WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
TUESDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. W WIND.

BMD

.MARINE...
244 AM CDT

A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

636 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* NONE.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING
BELOW 10 KT TODAY BUT INCREASING AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AUTEN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* HIGH.

AUTEN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR PSBL. SW WIND.

SATURDAY...CHC SHRA EARLY. IMPROVING TO VFR. W WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. NE WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
TUESDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. W WIND.

BMD

.MARINE...
244 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

429 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* NONE.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT AND
WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KT AS THE
BECOME EASTERLY THURSDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SELY
WIND BECOMING SWLY. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY. OTRW...VFR. SWLY WINDS BECMG NWLY.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. LGT/VRBL WIND BECMG ELY.

MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL. ELY WIND.

TUESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. ELY WIND.

KREIN

.MARINE...
244 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

312 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NONE.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SELY
WIND BECOMING SWLY. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY. OTRW...VFR. SWLY WINDS BECMG NWLY.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. LGT/VRBL WIND BECMG ELY.

MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL. ELY WIND.

TUESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. ELY WIND.

KREIN

.MARINE...
244 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1147 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

A cold front is beginning to push into the northwest portion the
forecast area with little fanfare, and do not expect this to
change much for the rest of the night. The wave driving the front
into the area is quickly pushing off into the eastern Great
Lakes/Canada, taking most of the forcing with it. There is a weak
wave tracking northeast into the Midwest from the Plains and this
disturbance has some mid=level returns (likely only sprinkles or
virga) spreading into western Missouri and Iowa. This disturbance
is likely to impact only the northern portion of the forecast
area later tonight, so have limited slight chance PoPs to this
area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, going forecast looks
good and only slight tweaks have been made.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western
Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the
eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The
boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and
eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture
for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way
of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry
forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at
least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA.
19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across
eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of
the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid-
level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the
front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight
low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings
remaining in the lower to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on
Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as
mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very
warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather
system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of
pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of
the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with
timing and location of this front through the end of the week and
have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in
the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the
southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the
rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some
differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving
into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated
thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week
and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole
area.

The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just
below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into
the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to
just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week,
another weather system will move into the area with another chance
of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences
on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible.
Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps
should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. An upper-level
disturbance will pass near the area tonight, and an isolated
sprinkle can`t be ruled out. However, the risk of measurable
rainfall is too low to mention, and mid-level CIGS/virga are the
mostly likely impact of this disturbance. Generally light winds
are anticipated through the period with a decaying frontal boundary
in the vicinity.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1140 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT AS BEST FORCING APPEARS TO
BE DISPLACED FROM THE AREA AS NOTED IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...AND
HRRR PRECIP COVERAGE IS NOT QUITE AS EXPANSIVE AS WOULD BE DESIRED
FOR HIGHER POPS LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME EXPANSION
OF SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...BUT FELT A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN POPS WAS WARRANTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER MADE PER LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. VERY LITTLE OF CURRENT RETURNS APPEAR TO
BE MAKING THE GROUND WITH DOUBLE DIGIT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS THE
RULE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL
DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AT BEST.

ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE
FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO
THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT
OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB
JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF
FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION.

THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA.

WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA.
THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY.
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY.

MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR
MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE HOLDING THINGS DRY FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY
AS THE GULF OPENS UP AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH...AND BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
THUS HAVE KEPT THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CAN HOLD TRUE SHOULD SEE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS/ ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DID MAKE
SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS IS DECREASING THE OVERALL SPEEDS IN THE AVERAGED
SOLUTION.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

VFR TO START...THEN MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING
AND BACK TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...CEILINGS
HAVE ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY SO FAR AND BY MAY NOT REACH MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BY MID
MORNING LASTING TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST UP TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST UP TO
15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AFTER COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS BY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1028 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR TO START WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR OR LOWER
BY LATE TONIGHT. THEN IMPROVING CLOSE TO VFR BY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WHICH IN TURN WILL CAUSE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MVFR CEILINGS OR LOWER MAY NOT ARRIVE AT KIND AND KBMG UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MARGINAL CONDITIONS AT BEST WILL BE THE RULE WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS AT 2000 FEET BECOME
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
CRITERIA AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NEW TAFS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1006 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

VFR TO START WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR OR LOWER
BY LATE TONIGHT. THEN IMPROVING CLOSE TO VFR BY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

716 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015