Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/23/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
444 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS
REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES
PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF
THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH
VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE
WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE
OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS
WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF
THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH
VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE
WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE
OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS
WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON KEEPING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BEST
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN DURING THE
EVENING ALONG INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. --PGW--
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED SOME OF THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THRU THU MORNING AND UPDATED
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS THRU THE SAME PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY REPORTS OF PCPN.
AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY
SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR
PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN
THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE
AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN
BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL
PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH
LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW
THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K
AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K
FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET
UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS
AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING.
HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER
SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST
OF SATURDAY.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. DURING THE EVENING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG
OUT OF KCOS...HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KPUB.
AT KALS...ANY CHANCES FOR FOG DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...AND CURRENTLY KEPT FOG OUT OF THE TAF.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 9000
TO 9500 FEET NORTH TO 10000 FEET SOUTH. BEST ACCUMULATION HAS
OCCURRED ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY HELPING TO SHOW AN AREA OF LIFT
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT BERTHOUD PASS ARE REPORTING EAST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...SO STRONG UPSLOPE IS STILL IN PLACE.
EASTERLY WINDS FROM 750MB TO 600MB WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH CAUSING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE AND END LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SO STILL
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
OFF ON THE TIMING BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AS THE 12Z
MODELS COME IN...WILL TRY AND PIN POINT WHEN AND WHERE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTN THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY 12Z
THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NERN CO TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF I-70 AND NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE IN PLACE AND SOME WK ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z. BOTH
THE HRRR AND RAP AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP IN HIGH POPS
FOR THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THRU MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10000 FT ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX DOWN TO 9000 FEET
OR SO.
FOR THIS AFTN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN HOWEVER QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THRU THE AFTN SO WILL
KEEP IN LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER PCPN BY LATE AFTN MAY BEGIN TO
DECREASE FM NW TO SE AS THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHIFT MORE TO
THE S AND SE. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.
BY TONIGHT THE BEST QG ASCENT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE S AND SE OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS BUT WILL LOWER
THEM TO CHC ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP IN
SOME HIGHER POPS OVER ZNS 34 AND 37 BUT ONLY HAVE A CHC IN MTN AREAS
NORTH OF I-70. MEANWHILE BY LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MID LVL
ASCENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SRN AREAS OF CWA BY 12Z ON THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATELY STRONG QG UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED ON THURSDAY AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
ALL DOWNWARD MOTION THEE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK DRAINAGE PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE AGAIN
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE...MOISTURE STARTS
TO DECREASE. FRIDAY DRIES OUT PARTIALLY...BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
BETTER DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE
PROGGED LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. THERE IS EVEN LESS PROGGED LATE DAY FRIDAY AND ONLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS ALL SHOW FAIRLY DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ON THE QPF FIELDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. IT DECREASES
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NEED DECENT POPS ON
THURSDAY...30-70%S...EVEN A TAD OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN BY MID EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-40%S POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER AGAIN. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...THEN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
INCREASE INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE TROUGH NOR IS THE COLDER AIR.
WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
RAIN...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 300 FEET WILL LIFT AFTER 18Z BUT EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 3000 FEET THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED SOME OF THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THRU THU MORNING AND UPDATED
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS THRU THE SAME PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY REPORTS OF PCPN.
AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY
SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR
PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN
THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE
AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN
BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL
PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH
LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW
THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K
AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K
FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET
UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS
AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING.
HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER
SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST
OF SATURDAY.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
KALS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE KALS AREA
THRU THE DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OR END FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.
KCOS IS EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...WITH MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AT TIMES BEING ON
THE LOW SIDE OF VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING THRU TONIGHT.
KPUB SHOULD SEE LOW VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY REPORTS OF PCPN.
AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY
SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR
PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN
THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE
AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN
BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL
PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH
LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW
THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K
AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K
FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET
UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS
AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING.
HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER
SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST
OF SATURDAY.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
KALS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE KALS AREA
THRU THE DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OR END FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.
KCOS IS EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...WITH MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AT TIMES BEING ON
THE LOW SIDE OF VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING THRU TONIGHT.
KPUB SHOULD SEE LOW VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTN THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY 12Z
THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NERN CO TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF I-70 AND NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE IN PLACE AND SOME WK ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z. BOTH
THE HRRR AND RAP AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP IN HIGH POPS
FOR THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THRU MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10000 FT ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX DOWN TO 9000 FEET
OR SO.
FOR THIS AFTN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN HOWEVER QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THRU THE AFTN SO WILL
KEEP IN LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER PCON BY LATE AFTN MAY BEGIN TO
DECREASE FM NW TO SE AS THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHIFT MORE TO
THE S AND SE. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.
BY TONIGHT THE BEST QG ASCENT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE S AND SE OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS BUT WILL LOWER
THEM TO CHC ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP IN
SOME HIGHER POPS OVER ZNS 34 AND 37 BUT ONLY HAVE A CHC IN MTN AREAS
NORTH OF I-70. MEANWHILE BY LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MID LVL
ASCENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SRN AREAS OF CWA BY 12Z ON THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATELY STRONG QG UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED ON THURSDAY AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
ALL DOWNWARD MOTION THEE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK DRAINAGE PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE AGAIN
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE...MOISTURE STARTS
TO DECREASE. FRIDAY DRIES OUT PARTIALLY...BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
BETTER DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE
PROGGED LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. THERE IS EVEN LESS PROGGED LATE DAY FRIDAY AND ONLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS ALL SHOW FAIRLY DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ON THE QPF FIELDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. IT DECREASES
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NEED DECENT POPS ON
THURSDAY...30-70%S...EVEN A TAD OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN BY MID EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-40%S POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER AGAIN. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...THEN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
INCREASE INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE TROUGH NOR IS THE COLDER AIR.
WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
CURRENTLY PCPN WAS NOT OCCURRING AT DIA HOWEVER SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS INCREASE BY 11Z OR 12Z WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO
IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT PCPN WILL LINGER THRU EARLY AFTN AND THEN
DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTN HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT ONLY SCT SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS. BY 12Z ON THU PCPN MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES AREA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME NE BY EARLY AFTN WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
ESE BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ADDED ZONES 12 AND 18 TO THE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH SNOW ALREADY ACCUMULATING AT MONARCH PASS. THE CURRENT BAND
OF SNOW WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A BREAK FOR A FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM THE
SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING
TO AROUND 10K AND NIGHT AND CLIMB TO AROUND 11K DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ012-018-
019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST HRRR POINT TO CONTINUED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS E OF I-25 THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL AFTER 06Z
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SWING INTO WESTERN AZ THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER DURING THE DAY WED.
STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH NM ALREADY FORCING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A FEW TSRA WORKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVE TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL...WITH NORTH WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TEMPORARILY HAMPERING
PRECIP AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS START NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THIS EVENING...BUT SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER A MORNING LULL...PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS AND
SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER...WHICH
INCREASES VERTICAL MOTION AND ALLOWS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TO TURN
MORE E-NE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED...BUT
WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...BUT WITH CONVECTION AND
STRONG UPWARD MOTION...EXPECT SOME RATHER HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...INCLUDING THE SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK. WILL HOIST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES BEGINNING THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WED...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED TO
AREAS MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVEL. ELEVATIONS IN THE 8-10K RANGE MAY SEE
SNOW AT TIMES UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THIS
LOW SHOULD BE MINOR. MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP...THOUGH DID NUDGE MAX TEMP GRID UP SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW RAIN FREE HOURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. WED NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
AZ...CONTINUING TO DRAW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS NM
AND INTO CO. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NE AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THU...MOVING UP INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES CO ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN...AND HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS...WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THU. BY THU EVE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND
MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SHOWERS TO START TAPERING OFF.
THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD FOR
BEING IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON THU...THEN PERHAPS WARMING
UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
THREATEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN FOR THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THE WEEKEND LOOKS ESSENTIALLY DRY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC
NW ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACKS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON...THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL OF THE E PLAINS AND E MTS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS
IN THE 60S. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERN UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY...WET SNOW
WILL FLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH MOST HIGHER PEAKS
AND PASSES OBSCURED. WILL CARRY VCSH IN TAFS OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. LIKELIHOOD OF VCTS TOO
LOW TO MENTION.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS INCREASES ALL AREAS...INCLUDING
TAF SITES...12-15Z AS MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA. MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED ALL AREAS WITH HEAVY...WET SNOW ABOVE 9 TO
10 THOUSAND FEET. ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
MAINLY MVFR BUT POSSIBLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ADDED ZONES 12 AND 18 TO THE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH SNOW ALREADY ACCUMULATING AT MONARCH PASS. THE CURRENT BAND
OF SNOW WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A BREAK FOR A FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM THE
SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO AND KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z
...KMTJ...KCNY...KMTJ...KASE AND KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ012-018-
019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL
A RATHER DRY LAYER BELOW H800 FROM KALY AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR
WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A
LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST
POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY
MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE
REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS
SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS
WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84
CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT
THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE REGION...AND WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM KALB-
KPSF NORTHWARD INTO THE LATE MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AT KALB/KGFL ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM. OTHER THAN THE SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR KALB/KPSF/KPOU. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KPOU. KGFL MAY HAVE A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
DECK AROUND 2 KFT AGL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT
KPSF BTWN 12Z-18Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO 00Z/THU.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KTS OR LESS
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE. THE TEMPERATURES
WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. THE FORECAST
OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK.
THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
REACHING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT COUNTIES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS WITH NEXT FORECAST IF RADAR TRENDS INCREASE WITH
REFLECTIVITY AND THEREBY SHOWERS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT...RESULTING IN WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...SO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. USED A MIX OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOW IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BEFORE
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.
LIGHT W/SE FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN
WITH SEA BREEZE COMPONENT FLOW. LGT AND VRB WINDS TNGT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY INLAND
AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS G20KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z WED...MAINLY DUE TO
RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS EXCEEDING 5 FT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MIGHT ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG
NEAR TERM...BC/JM/JP
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...BC/JM/FIG
HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL
A RATHER DRY LAYER BELOW H800 FROM KALY AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR
WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A
LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST
POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY
MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE
REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS
SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS
WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84
CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT
THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/THU FOR KPOU-KPSF-KALB. WHILE
AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE PREVALENT...CIGS WERE ABOVE FLIGHT
THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KALB-KPSF AS WE
WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND VCSH RESPECTFULLY.
GENERALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
THE GRADIENT RATHER DIFFUSE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTER
CHANCEOF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
534 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE
THAT STANDS OUT IS DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGHING PIVOTING SLOWLY
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS
CENTERED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE FIND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ACT TO FORCE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE POSITION
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A STEADY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE AS WE APPROACH DAWN EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHALLOW SPEED
CONVERGENCE SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...HOWEVER JUST ABOUT ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING BEFORE
REACHING OUR INLAND ZONES. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT DO ANTICIPATE THE EVENTUALLY LATER THIS
MORNING SOME OF THIS LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
REACH PORTIONS OF SUMTER/POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES (BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT...JUST A FEW RAIN DROPS).
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUIET...SEASONABLE...AND MAINLY DRY TO START OUT THE DAY. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY BECOME A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES...THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A BIT GREATER TODAY THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP A FEW MORE OF THE SPEED CONVERGENT
ATLANTIC SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO REACH OUR INLAND
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FURTHER
WITH WESTWARD PROGRESS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES
MAKING IT AS FAR AS THE NATURE COAST AND I-75 CORRIDOR AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE/LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH A 20% POP
OVER INLAND AREAS...AND A 10% POP FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT ANY
RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. MOST AREAS WILL
NOT EVEN SEE A WETTING RAINFALL...BUT RATHER PERHAPS JUST A FEW
PASSING RAINDROPS. BEST CHANCES AT SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE IN
THE 0.01-0.05" RANGE WOULD BE FROM SUMTER COUNTY...DOWN INTO
EASTERN POLK AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...ANY EVENING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE
FORECAST.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ADDED SUPPRESSION LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO REACH OUR FORECAST ZONES. DO NOT HAVE
ANYTHING MORE THAN 10% POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH
SPRINKLE MENTION CONFINED TO EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IF
NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.
HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND
SUPPRESS THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A WEAKER U/L RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONG COMPLEX U/L LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
INDUCE STRONG SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EARLY NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...AND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELDS WILL BE
AROUND WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 3-4KFT AGL. A FEW SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING...AND THEN SETTLE DOWN WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PROVIDING A STEADY
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
SURGES OF WIND. THESE SURGES OF WIND ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERIODICALLY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BOATERS HEADING OUT ON THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE URGED TO CHECK
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATER EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY KEEPING A STEADY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH DURING EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOONS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 70 87 70 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 88 70 87 70 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 85 67 85 68 / 20 10 10 0
SRQ 86 70 86 71 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 85 65 86 65 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60
NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1013 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MOST OF THE NAM
AND GFS MOS INDICATED SOME FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
SREF FOG PROBABILITIES WERE LOW BUT DID TREND HIGHER IN EAST AND
SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 23Z HRRR INDICATED FOG IN
THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND PART OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. EVENING
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN PARTS OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SO LOW 80S
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER A COOLER AIR MASS AND A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A CONTINUED COOLING TREND IS FORECAST.
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN STATES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE COLD AIR DAMMING SET UP TUESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
PATTERN APPEARS UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AGS/OGB WILL BE MOST PRONE WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS FORECAST AFTER 07Z-08Z WITH TEMPORARY IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWS A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT...WHICH VERIFIED QUITE WELL...AND LOCAL
RADIATION FOG TOOL SUPPORTS RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TERMINALS AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS BY
13Z. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AFTER 15Z BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BELIEVE AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FRIDAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SO LOW 80S
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER A COOLER AIR MASS AND A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A CONTINUED COOLING TREND IS FORECAST.
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN STATES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE COLD AIR DAMMING SET UP TUESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
PATTERN APPEARS UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AGS/OGB WILL BE MOST PRONE WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS FORECAST AFTER 07Z-08Z WITH TEMPORARY IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWS A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT...WHICH VERIFIED QUITE WELL...AND LOCAL
RADIATION FOG TOOL SUPPORTS RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TERMINALS AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS BY
13Z. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AFTER 15Z BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
514 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED BUT
IT WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BELIEVE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
BE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME RIVER VALLEYS. THE SREF
GUIDANCE PLUS GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATED LITTLE FOG. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELIEVE THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STAY DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BY NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES...INDICATING THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING AGS/OGB.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NC/SC AND UTILIZING THE CROSSOVER TEMP METHOD VSBYS
COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATED THE TERMINALS TO HIT THE FOG HARDER AT AGS INCLUDING A
PREVAILING GROUP OF IFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS
THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT OGB 09Z-
12Z. SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTHER TERMINALS BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western
Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the
eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The
boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and
eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture
for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way
of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry
forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at
least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA.
19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across
eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of
the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid-
level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the
front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight
low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings
remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on
Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as
mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very
warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather
system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of
pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of
the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with
timing and location of this front through the end of the week and
have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in
the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the
southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the
rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some
differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving
into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated
thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week
and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole
area.
The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just
below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into
the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to
just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week,
another weather system will move into the area with another chance
of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences
on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible.
Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps
should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Southwesterly winds gusting to around 20kt will continue
throughout the afternoon before subsiding to less than 10kt by
sunset. Winds will gradually become light/variable as a cold front
sags slowly southward into central Illinois tonight. Front will
have very little low-level moisture to work with, so am not
expecting any widespread precip. Based on forecast soundings, have
introduced a mid-level cloud deck at around 15000ft as the front
arrives. Models generally take the boundary to near or just south
of the I-72 corridor before stalling it by Thursday morning. As a
result, will carry light/variable winds at the I-72 terminals,
with NE winds of 5-10kt at both KPIA and KBMI after 14/15z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
15z/10am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough
tracking eastward across western Ontario/Minnesota...while a more
subtle wave is noted further south across western Iowa. A cluster
of showers/storms is ongoing across central Iowa...with isolated
showers extending further southeastward into central Illinois.
Models are not handling the current situation particularly
well...with the 12z NAM missing the Iowa convection completely.
Even the higher-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh that
show the Iowa convection are not picking up on the showers further
southeast. As a result...have relied mainly on satellite/radar
loops for the short-term forecast update. Have added slight chance
PoPs for showers/thunder across nearly the entire CWA through
early afternoon. Have increased PoPs northwest of the Illinois
River to go with scattered wording, as radar timing tools are
showing the tail end of the Iowa convection brushing this area
over the next 2-4 hours. Aside from the spotty showers...the main
weather story today will be the unseasonably warm conditions.
With a good deal of sunshine and continued southwesterly
winds...afternoon high temperatures will once again top out in the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
An MCV pushing across Illinois early this morning will keep showers
and isolated thunderstorms going past sunrise generally along I-72
and surrounding counties. Thunder potential should diminish toward
sunrise as the vort max becomes more elongated with less DPVA. Will
gradually diminish PoPs through mid-morning across our central
counties. Satellite and radar analysis shows our next shortwave
should arrive in NW Illinois this afternoon, triggering more showers
and a few storms NW of the Illinois river. Only utilized slight
chance PoPs for now, but localized areas could see a tenth of an
inch or more of rain if any storms develop. Elevated instability
appears sufficient for thunder, and SPC Day 1 outlook includes our
northern counties in General Thunder.
Temperatures today could be highly variable depending on what areas
see clearing the longest. Will stay the course with highs near
guidance numbers in the upper 70s to low 80s, as steady southwest
winds mix down a mid-level warm layer. Temps on Tuesday climbed
rapidly as clearing developed in the mid-high cloud cover, and today
should be similar. NW and SE areas should be on the cooler side of
that range due to showers early in the SE and late in the NW.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Forecast increasingly problematic with short waves moving into the
region from the deep upper low settling over the desert SW. Models
not handling them well, and fumbling the QPF fields as a result.
Tonight dry in the models for the most part, but a front moving
through with another pulse of energy riding along it. Timing of the
pulse is in more question than the boundary. GFS is a little more
diffuse than the NAM and the ECMWF that move along later in the
overnight. Either way, keeping some chance and slight chance pops
in for the low confidence forecast. Same boundary settling in could
provide some focus for day time showers across the middle of the
state, and slights across the CWA to reflect it for the meantime.
Models are getting more and more assertive with moisture into the
region and increasing the showers and speeding up the timing of the
next system. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and
through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast
for this weekend...Friday and Saturday...moving up the time frame to
impact the western portions of the state by 18z on Friday. Have kept
the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday
as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the
afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week
with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Timing
for the next wave/chance of precip varied in models by 24-36 hrs
Tues/Wed. Keeping the pops low for now, slightly lower than the
blends, just as a place holder and waiting for more consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Southwesterly winds gusting to around 20kt will continue
throughout the afternoon before subsiding to less than 10kt by
sunset. Winds will gradually become light/variable as a cold front
sags slowly southward into central Illinois tonight. Front will
have very little low-level moisture to work with, so am not
expecting any widespread precip. Based on forecast soundings, have
introduced a mid-level cloud deck at around 15000ft as the front
arrives. Models generally take the boundary to near or just south
of the I-72 corridor before stalling it by Thursday morning. As a
result, will carry light/variable winds at the I-72 terminals,
with NE winds of 5-10kt at both KPIA and KBMI after 14/15z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT LIES TWO THIRDS OF THE WAY UP THE LAKE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEAST IL. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
OVER THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF I-80. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT EAST. IR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS TREND AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY 12Z/7 AM CDT. SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. RAISED HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE
ACROSS THE BOARD. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER NORTHERN IL
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NORTH
OF I-88 THIS AFTN.
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FORM
ALONG IT. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN HOW SHOWERS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TO BE FAIR...GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY AND WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE HIGH. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FUNNELS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE WITH ON
SHORE WINDS...TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO FOWLER INDIANA
LINE. RAISED HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80
AS GUIDANCE HAS 925 MB TEMPS ARND +14C TO +15C.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAISED THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS AS WELL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DOWNTOWN AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL. RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN MN. ONCE
AGAIN RAISED HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY SINCE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND WE
WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY HINDER MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
THE LOWS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND DO NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE WRONG TIME OF DAY. AREAS SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST A TENTH OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS IN HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT SO LOWERED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER UPPER LEVEL
AIR LAGGING A BIT. MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY BUT MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE. GUIDANCE KEEPS
PRECIP AND THE COOLER AIR WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
AN UPPER WAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED OK AT
THE MOMENT AND SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THRU THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT RFD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER MENTION
AT RFD. WENT WITH VICINITY MENTION AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
FOR NOW...BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADD A TEMPO OR SHORT DURATION FOR
SHOWERS. CMS
PREVIOUS 12Z DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING UNDER
THE RAIN WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. EXPECT THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SHIFT EAST OF RFD BY 08-09Z AND
THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS 11-12Z. SSW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ABOVE 10 KT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20 KT RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
WISCONSIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH MID EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
LATE EVENING AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT VSBY BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR IN PRECIP
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. E WIND.
FRIDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR PSBL. SW BCMG NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. N WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. E WIND.
TUESDAY...SLT CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. E WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
15z/10am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough
tracking eastward across western Ontario/Minnesota...while a more
subtle wave is noted further south across western Iowa. A cluster
of showers/storms is ongoing across central Iowa...with isolated
showers extending further southeastward into central Illinois.
Models are not handling the current situation particularly
well...with the 12z NAM missing the Iowa convection completely.
Even the higher-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh that
show the Iowa convection are not picking up on the showers further
southeast. As a result...have relied mainly on satellite/radar
loops for the short-term forecast update. Have added slight chance
PoPs for showers/thunder across nearly the entire CWA through
early afternoon. Have increased PoPs northwest of the Illinois
River to go with scattered wording, as radar timing tools are
showing the tail end of the Iowa convection brushing this area
over the next 2-4 hours. Aside from the spotty showers...the main
weather story today will be the unseasonably warm conditions.
With a good deal of sunshine and continued southwesterly
winds...afternoon high temperatures will once again top out in the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
An MCV pushing across Illinois early this morning will keep showers
and isolated thunderstorms going past sunrise generally along I-72
and surrounding counties. Thunder potential should diminish toward
sunrise as the vort max becomes more elongated with less DPVA. Will
gradually diminish PoPs through mid-morning across our central
counties. Satellite and radar analysis shows our next shortwave
should arrive in NW Illinois this afternoon, triggering more showers
and a few storms NW of the Illinois river. Only utilized slight
chance PoPs for now, but localized areas could see a tenth of an
inch or more of rain if any storms develop. Elevated instability
appears sufficient for thunder, and SPC Day 1 outlook includes our
northern counties in General Thunder.
Temperatures today could be highly variable depending on what areas
see clearing the longest. Will stay the course with highs near
guidance numbers in the upper 70s to low 80s, as steady southwest
winds mix down a mid-level warm layer. Temps on Tuesday climbed
rapidly as clearing developed in the mid-high cloud cover, and today
should be similar. NW and SE areas should be on the cooler side of
that range due to showers early in the SE and late in the NW.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Forecast increasingly problematic with short waves moving into the
region from the deep upper low settling over the desert SW. Models
not handling them well, and fumbling the QPF fields as a result.
Tonight dry in the models for the most part, but a front moving
through with another pulse of energy riding along it. Timing of the
pulse is in more question than the boundary. GFS is a little more
diffuse than the NAM and the ECMWF that move along later in the
overnight. Either way, keeping some chance and slight chance pops
in for the low confidence forecast. Same boundary settling in could
provide some focus for day time showers across the middle of the
state, and slights across the CWA to reflect it for the meantime.
Models are getting more and more assertive with moisture into the
region and increasing the showers and speeding up the timing of the
next system. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and
through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast
for this weekend...Friday and Saturday...moving up the time frame to
impact the western portions of the state by 18z on Friday. Have kept
the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday
as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the
afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week
with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Timing
for the next wave/chance of precip varied in models by 24-36 hrs
Tues/Wed. Keeping the pops low for now, slightly lower than the
blends, just as a place holder and waiting for more consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The residual effects of a shortwave are being felt across central
Illinois early this morning, with spotty showers or sprinkles
drifting from west to east. Any chance of measurable rain appears
to have passed east of the terminals based on radar and satellite
trends. Therefore, no precip was included in any 12z TAFs.
A cold front will reach NW IL by 00z/7pm today, then track south-
southeast across our area tonight. Precip chances will increase
ahead of the front from NW to SE, beginning near PIA this
afternoon. Sounding analysis shows relatively limited moisture
during the times of peak lift, so no rain was included in the TAFs
at this point. However, based on the models missing the extent of
last nights rain and isolated storms, would not be surprised to
see a repeat tonight with the cold front.
Winds will generally remain southwest today, with gusts to 20-25kt
from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Gusts will dissipate later this
afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens in the vicinity of the
cold front. Behind the cold front, winds will eventually shift
around to the north later tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Going to have to boost PoPs, at least a little, across much of the
forecast area tonight. A MCV from a pesky convective complex is
currently tracking east across northern Illinois. Some enhanced
forcing trailing from this MCV, along with a developing nocturnal
low-level jet, is increasing shower development over the western
portion of the forecast area. This development is likely to track
east along with the MCV, although a the airmass is drier and low-
level jet weaker as you head east. Despite the higher PoPs, the
overall rainfall should be minimal due to the very dry low-level
airmass across central Illinois. Other tweaks to forecast will be
minor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the
southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into
the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong
southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into
Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants
of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet
late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi
River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track
northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations
northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again
strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight,
additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both
the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could
potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across
this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast.
Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10-
15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than
in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the
Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high
pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low
pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area.
Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be
expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a
slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling
southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as
moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of
the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs
reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL
Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for
Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front
stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to
mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday.
Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday
as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low
into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving
into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has
been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the
latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to-
run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of
the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast
instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for
thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern
portions of Illinois.
Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through
Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois
Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE
Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows
generally in the low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
A few bands of light showers and isolated thunderstorms have
developed and are tracking across central Illinois late this
evening. While any rainfall will be light in most cases, the
coverage and intensity has increased to the point that TEMPO
groups are needed for most local terminals for the next few hours.
However, even in the heavier rainfall, expect VFR conditions to
prevail. Otherwise, southerly winds will prevail through the bulk
of the period, with gustiness also expected during the peak
diurnal mixing hours Wednesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER TO RE-INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN
EARLY THU MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN
RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
RESULTED IN SOME DECENT BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS NOW
GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY
PRECIP...HOWEVER MORE TIMELY HRRR AND RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST CURRENT
ELEVATED NE/KS PRECIP WILL OOZE INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE
SOLUTION...PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH BASED.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEW MODEL PACKAGES...THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE
APPEARS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH AS
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH. TRADITIONALLY...INSTABILITY LESSENS ONCE THE
LAYER BECOMES SATURATED IN COOLER DRIER AIR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDER...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO MENTION.
OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME WITH A PARTIALLY
SPLIT FORCING REGIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE H850 JET AND BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. NONE THE LESS A
PERIOD OF HIGH POP WILL STILL BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY DESPITE THE
REALIZATION THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE ON TARGET
WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A
DECENT COOL OFF FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKS PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS MAY PHASE INTO ONE LARGER
STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEEPEN A DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONCURRENTLY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AND A SUBTROPICAL GULF COAST SYSTEM EDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME
FROM TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE H500 FIELDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE EURO
HAS ALLOWED THE ENERGY OF THE LEADING WAVE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH WEAKER
SYSTEMS. THE NET RESULT IS EITHER A MORE NORTHERLY STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE GFS OR A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE PLAINS IF THE EURO
MODEL VERIFIES. THOUGH WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY...IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG FALL
SYSTEM NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. DETAILS OF DAILY WEATHER WILL NEED
TO BE BETTER PARSED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN
A BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY. IF THE EURO WERE TO
VERIFY...DAY TIME HIGHS BY THURSDAY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
WITH STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF COLD RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
CONVECTION HAS EXITED TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ALONG KCSQ-KDSM-KIIB LINE
AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SE WITH MINOR NW WIND GUSTS BEHIND
UNTIL SUNSET. CIGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
REST OF THIS EVE INTO EARLY OVRNGT WILL SEE CONTINUED DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM W TO E... AS LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE MIGRATES EASTWARD. SYSTEM DEPOSITED 1-3 INCH RAIN TOTALS
OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...JOHNSON...MUSCATINE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ALONG WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PEA TO NEAR
PENNY SIZE. MLI FINALLY SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN 31 DAYS TYING FOR THE 7TH LONGEST DRY STREAK ON RECORD. IN
WAKE OF SYSTEM... MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVRNGT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
MINS TNGT DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FCST
LOWS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
OTHERWISE...WATCHING ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH KS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GET SHUTTLED UP OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VLY NEXT 24 HRS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT MAY SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES WITH VEERING LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO HINTED AT BY LATEST RUNS OF
HRRR AND RAP ... THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC/ISOLD COVERAGE WORDING
FOR LATER TNGT SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES. THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE... AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS FOR NOW... BUT TRENDS
AND FORCING WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE. DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IF MORE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THEN THESE COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 850MB LOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A LLJ RAN
FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. SATELLITE TRENDS HAS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED
WITH THE CONVECTION.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN 30S
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE
COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK.
THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF
PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A
LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF
MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE
SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE
PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS
ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE
SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF
FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN
PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC
TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO
MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A
DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE
COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK.
THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF
PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A
LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF
MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE
SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE
PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS
ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE
SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF
FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN
PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC
TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO
MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A
DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 21/06Z. AROUND DAYBREAK
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VSBYS 3-6SM
DUE TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. A FEW
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM
MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-80... WITH CHANCES TO LOW FOR MENTION.
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AM THROUGH AFTERNOON WILL SEE
EXPANSION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO INTERACTION OF NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCSH
WORDING. FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
926 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR
APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS
WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND
ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER
THETA-E LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW MUCAPE FIELDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
EVERYWHERE...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE BTWN H85 AND H7.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON SATURDAY
LOTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SUNSET. THESE HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER
30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AS A 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/FRONT. 850-500MB LAYER RATHER
DRY AND POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL IT WOULD BE
AROUND/BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT
SKY COVER FORECAST WITH THE GFS THE DRIER MODEL...ECMWF THE
WETTEST/MORE MOIST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SFC
HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND FOCUS
WILL BE ON LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL AIM FOR LOW TO MID 30S WITH A
CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
RAIN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK ARE NOW LOCATED WITHIN THE DRY REGION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR MIST FROM 04Z TO 10Z AT KGLD
AND AROUND 10 TO 11Z AT KMCK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KMCK AROUND THE 11Z
TIME FRAME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION. WINDS WILL
PICK UP ON FRIDAY... BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH PLUME OF RICH
MOISTURE ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. RADAR SHOWS MAJORITY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
TRANSITIONED OUT OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO FEED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. DRY
SLOT ON WV IMAGERY COINCIDE WITH AREA OS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTH
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. FAR NORTHWEST AND EAST
HAVE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN WITHING AREAS OF BETTER LARGE SCALE
FORCING...AND HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AS
DEFORMATION ZONE PASSES TO THE NW. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL DRY AIR. I KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER END OF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANY
PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT (DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN SHOWERS).
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTS NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. I COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNRISE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW FRIDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB...POSSIBLY 750MB.
AT THIS LEVEL 30-40KT JET WOULD SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON SATURDAY
LOTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SUNSET. THESE HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER
30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AS A 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/FRONT. 850-500MB LAYER RATHER
DRY AND POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL IT WOULD BE
AROUND/BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT
SKY COVER FORECAST WITH THE GFS THE DRIER MODEL...ECMWF THE
WETTEST/MORE MOIST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SFC
HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND FOCUS
WILL BE ON LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL AIM FOR LOW TO MID 30S WITH A
CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
RAIN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK ARE NOW LOCATED WITHIN THE DRY REGION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR MIST FROM 04Z TO 10Z AT KGLD
AND AROUND 10 TO 11Z AT KMCK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KMCK AROUND THE 11Z
TIME FRAME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION. WINDS WILL
PICK UP ON FRIDAY... BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGES ARE FREEZING PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRES MOVING SE ACROSS THE STATE
W/DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW DEWPOINTS
RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PULLS TO THE E AND LOW PRES MOVES E
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD FALL BACK RATHER QUICKLY W/THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. A WARM FRONT DEPICTED ON THE ANALYSIS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP TO BREAK OUT. 12Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS AND GEM SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO BE WELL W OF THE
CWA W/THE WARM FRONT. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RAP AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AIRMASS IS DRY PER THE 12Z UA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 700 MBS AND THE
COLUMN WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, PRECIP
MIGHT TAKEN SOME TIME TO REACH THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AFTER 2 AM ACROSS THE
FAR N AND W MAINLY W OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION. ATTM, QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 0.05" THROUGH 12Z. THE WINDOW
FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BRIEF AND NO MORE THAN 3 HRS
AT BEST. ATTM, ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND GIVEN
THAT GROUND TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, DECIDED AGAINST AN
ADVISORY. MIDNIGHT CREW DID A FINE JOB IN ADDRESSING THE FREEZING
PRECIP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO)AND WILL UPDATE THE
OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 30S BY AFTER 8AM
(12Z) ALLEVIATING ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT. LIGHT RAIN WILL BRIEFLY
END BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N. THE REGION
GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME W/S WINDS INCREASING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO BOOST WINDS UP GIVEN THE
0-6KM SHEAR BEING ADVERTISED AT AROUND 40 KTS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT W/WINDS GOING W AND THEN NW AND PICKING BACK UP.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND END LATER IN
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
KICK IN LATE W/READING DROPPING SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL QPF
FRONT THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 0.10-0.25" W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD, WINDY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY PRECIP, PATTERN RECOGNITION
SAYS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST AREAS WILL BE THE COLDEST NOT ONLY BECAUSE THEY
TYPICALLY ARE THE COLDEST ON CLEAR, CALM NIGHTS, BUT ALSO BECAUSE
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NW MAINE.
A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE
IN THE DAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z GFS IS A BIT
OF A FAST OUTLIER IN BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SATURDAY, BUT DISREGARDED ITS FASTER TIMING BECAUSE OF IT
BEING AN OUTLIER WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN MOVES IN AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING, THOUGH. COULD START ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 9PM
SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY. SAME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
RAIN ENDS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOULD BE DRY BY THE DAY MONDAY AND COOLER, AND PROBABLY STAYING
DRY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT SHOT OF RAIN COMES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOW PASSES TO OUR NW AS THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. NO GOOD SHOTS OF SNOW IN SIGHT. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF EACH SYSTEM, BUT IT SEEMS THE COLD
AIR JUST CAN`T QUITE MEET THE MOISTURE TO GIVE US A GOOD SNOW
EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH 2 AM AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF
TIME ON THURSDAY W/THE WARM FRONT AND SSE WIND. SOME -FZRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS MAINLY FOR KFVE W/MINIMAL
ICING. CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN VFR
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE, OTHERWISE VFR. ALSO QUITE WINDY AND GUSTY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM. LLVL JET WILL BRING A
SURGE OF 20 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY W/GUSTS 25+ KTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN COME BACK UP LATER THURSADY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WAVE HIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT BY
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY DUE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS
AND SEAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE
KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE
GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE
REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT
900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO
START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C
POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE
FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN
NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY.
THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY
POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL
AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
KIWD/KCMX...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30
MPH ALSO LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT
KCMX. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
RIDGING FROM THE WEST BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
KSAW...LIFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE
TIME AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
WILL CONITNUE INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT THEN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
RIDGING FROM THE WEST BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC
BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1215 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
PERIODIC INTERVALS OF THICKER MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER DRIER LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A CLEAR SKY BELOW 6000 FT THROUGH THIS
TIME. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS PRIOR
TO SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 04Z-09Z
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ACCOMPANY BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILING PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT. PROBABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION. SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR DTW...WINDOW FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-07Z.
NO DEFINED MENTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW POTENTIAL.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1036 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATE...
COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS INTO ONTARIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
SE MICHIGAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THE GENERAL COLUMN
DESCENT AND CONTINUED SOLID DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
/BELOW 7K FT/ POINTS TO LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXISTING THICKER CANOPY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPSTREAM
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PERIODIC INTERVALS OF OPEN
SKY ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THE SAME
TIME INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES OR JUST
ABOVE ARE STILL ATTAINABLE DESPITE THE SLOWER EARLY DAY RESPONSE
BENEATH THE CLOUDS. SIMPLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1036 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS INTO ONTARIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
SE MICHIGAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THE GENERAL COLUMN
DESCENT AND CONTINUED SOLID DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
/BELOW 7K FT/ POINTS TO LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXISTING THICKER CANOPY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPSTREAM
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PERIODIC INTERVALS OF OPEN
SKY ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THE SAME
TIME INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES OR JUST
ABOVE ARE STILL ATTAINABLE DESPITE THE SLOWER EARLY DAY RESPONSE
BENEATH THE CLOUDS. SIMPLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. EARLIER RAINFALL HAS ADDED SOME
MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY PTK/FNT/MBS DURING THE MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR DTW...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND METRO DETROIT SHOULD
HINDER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS NOW
ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ONLY
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. S-SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS SHOULD HOLD BELOW 25
KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING...WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH PAST
SUNSET.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. EARLIER RAINFALL HAS ADDED SOME
MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY PTK/FNT/MBS DURING THE MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR DTW...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND METRO DETROIT SHOULD
HINDER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS NOW
ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ONLY
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. S-SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS SHOULD HOLD BELOW 25
KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING...WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH PAST
SUNSET.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
FRONTAL ZONE IS SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE
LIFTING TOWARD THE CHICAGO AREA. INCREASED FORCING IS SUPPORTING
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. DRY AIR WILL TAKE ITS
TOLL ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE
LIMITED OUTSIDE THE KFNT/KPTK CORRIDOR. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
SHIELD WILL PUSH THROUGH APPROX 09-15Z. LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS, BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTION...PARTICULARLY
IN THE DETROIT AREA.
FOR DTW...DTW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE MOST
ORGANIZED RAINFALL WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY IN -SHRA POTENTIAL.
ELECTED TO HIGHLIGHT PERIOD OF PEAK POTENTIAL IN THE TAF, BUT NOTE
THAT EVEN IN SHOWERS CIG AND VSBY WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY VFR WITH
CIGS STAYING ABOVE 5KFT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
137 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AREA WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
I INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO 80 PCT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA
AS THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF IOWA HEADS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ALREADY THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF LITTLE SABLE POINT...OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. I ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TILL MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DOES NOW GET
INTO THOSE COUNTIES (23Z RAP MODEL).
EVEN THROUGH THE RAP MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 1000/850 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE 10 PM
TO 2 AM TIME FRAME...IT ALSO KILLS THE LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT CONVECTIVE VORT AS IT MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. IN SO DOING
IT ALSO KILLS THE PRECIPITATION TOO. SINCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOKS GOOD AND THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS GOOD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES I
AM GOING WITH THE SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ANYWAY. THUS I KEEP THE
60 TO 70 PCT POP NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 GOING TILL 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING RAIN TRENDS AND
THUNDER CHCS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
WE HAVE A COUPLE OF NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE IS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER THAT IS MOVING EAST...AND
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER IS BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94 THAT IS COMING FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRINGING A LULL IN
PCPN FOR A FEW HOURS.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF WED MORNING. THERE IS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WAVE NOW ACROSS NRN
MO. THE RAIN SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AND THE CHC OF THUNDER IS QUITE LOW
ONCE AGAIN WITH ELEVATED LI/S ONLY JUST A SHADE BELOW ZERO C.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WAVE OF RAIN WED
MORNING MOVES OUT. SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN
WED...JUSTIFYING THE CHC OF THUNDER AT THAT TIME. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER HEALTHY SURGE IN MOISTURE MOVE IN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SURGE WITH THE LLJ THAT WILL BE JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING IN WED NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHC OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR THU ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. RAIN
SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z THU. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPR RIDGE SHOWN TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z.
HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT SINCE THE
SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S DUE TO THE DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. VIRGA/SPRINKLES WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS PRECEDING
THE FRONT STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
SINCE LITTLE TO NO MU CAPE IS PROGGED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA ON SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT
COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND
SFC RIDGING BRINGS DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY.
AFTER DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOOK
LIMITED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN
5-8K FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED BRIEF
DOWN POUR.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET
NORTH OF HOLLAND WEDNESDAY. I SAW NO REASON TO WAIT TO ISSUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE APX ALREADY HAS ONE OUT...SO IT IS NOW
IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOLLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A STRIPE OF BASIN-AVERAGE
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
NEITHER RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE A FLOOD RISK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER
BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND
NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SCNTRL FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL
CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST
ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF
THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS
STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12
HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND
AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL
AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND
MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM THE W FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CROSSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF INCREASED WIND EVENTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT E UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN OR LESS AT 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE W
HALF...WITH 1IN VALUES EXITING FAR E. NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z
AND THE DRAGGING COLD FRONT EXITS JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS. BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE E OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z
THURSDAY...PROLONGING THE WNW WINDS A BIT LONGER. 850MB TEMPS OF
-1 TO -3C THURSDAY MORNING WITH THESE UPSLOPE/LAKESHORE CONVERGENT
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL
SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT E AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH AS A DEEPENING LOW NEARS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.1
TO 0.3IN OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...STILL WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
FALLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE 500MB TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS MN AT 12Z SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER
BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY
SHIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
KIWD/KCMX...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY MAINLY EXISTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXTENT OF
LOWERING CIGS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KSAW...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS SE FLOW PULLS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL
RESULT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...PREFER A LOW STRATUS INSTEAD.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF LOWEST CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-
30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE
LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE
WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
AT 07Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR NWRN KS
INTO NE CO. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AT 15 TO 30 MPH. A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERED IN THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS
BETWEEN STAPLETON AND AINSWORTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER
50S IN NWRN NEBR...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SERN FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN AZ BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOC UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTER
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST CONDITIONS INTO TEXAS...ERN NEW MEXICO...OKLA AND KS. IN FACT
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1 INCH ACROSS SWRN AND SRN NEBR. SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY WILL MAINLY RANGE AS SLIGHT CHANCE AND LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR SERN
PANHANDLE IN SWRN NEBR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER FORCING OVER WRN NEBR...THE FOCUS TODAY WILL
RESIDE ACROSS COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OUT FROM NEAR LNK NE...THROUGH HAYS AND SCOTT CITY KS.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS WRN NEBR SHOW A FAIRLY SATURATED H85 TO H5
LAYER. THIS MEANS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FA
TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH. DUE TO MUCH COOLER H85 TEMPS OF 8C TO
10C...HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. KEPT
HIGH VERY NEAR PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST AVBL MOS GUIDANCE.
AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TONIGHT...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR FROM SRN TX NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN KS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF NCTRL BY LATE
TONIGHT. LIKELY POPS INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO INDICATION OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION FOR ANY
THUNDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST IN TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. H85 WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL FORCE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY. PWATS BY 12Z THURSDAY ARE RUNNING
AROUND 1.1 INCHES PER THE NAM AND GFS FOR NORTH PLATTE. FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...PWATS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS. IN
ADDITION TO ROBUST MOISTURE...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY...FACILITATING EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION RIGHT
THROUGH THE HEART OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE TRENDED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FOR THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT
HERE IS THE NAM/S DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN LATER TONIGHT. THINKING HERE
IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PCPN PER THE GFS SOLN...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH IS SLOWER TO MIGRATE EAST TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...BY THURSDAY...A
BROAD SWATH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WILL SEE
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.5 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 83 SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR BETTER. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF SOLNS DEVELOP A LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KS...WHICH SHEDS SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW MUCH
PCPN WILL FALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...FAVORABLE LIFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO FACILITATE
MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA AS
THE H5 LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE BLACK HILLS. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY NOONTIME FRIDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THANKS TO WESTERLY
WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLE...THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING...EFFECTIVELY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND SHUTTING OFF ANY
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF PRECIP IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL RAIN. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AFTER ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A BENIGN COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NRN TIER OF STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SEEN THIS FALL
SEASON TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SRLY WINDS WILL FORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE
LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR PCPN...PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN WEST OF A VTN-MHN-MCK LINE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH
THE RAIN.
TURNING TO OTHER ISSUES...THE WIND PROFILER NEAR TIF SHOWS 46KT WIND
AT ABOUT 800 FEET AGL AND...NEAR RAP SHOWS 52KT. WITH SURFACE WIND
320-360 AT 5-10KT...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO INCLUDE ANW...VTN...TIF AND MHN. BY THE TIME
THE STONG LOW LEVEL WIND REACHES BBW-LBF-OGA...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE 25KT OR LOWER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES...NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT STILL A
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND TEMPS TO BE MORE MID SEPTEMBER THAN MID
OCTOBER IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AND HIGHS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S...NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THE
ADDED MOISTURE WILL AID IN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THEN THE LEADING WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEG LIFT INDEX VALUES AND EVEN
SOME POSITIVE MUCAPE....SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD T.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE MATURE
UPPER CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SHEARING TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
WILL BE MID PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE MID TERM WITH TEMPERATURES AND TIMING.
HAVE DROPPED THUNDER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AS UPPER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. UPPED QPF AMOUNTS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND 100KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
THE TROUGH. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH GULF OPEN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS 0.85 INCHES THIS MORNING AT 193 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND INCREASING TO 1.00 INCH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS
SEVERAL STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE INCLUDED MODERATE
RAINFALL IN GRIDS AND COULD POSSIBLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONTINUED
COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. DRYING OUT FRIDAY WITH SCHC MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN WEST OF A VTN-MHN-MCK LINE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH
THE RAIN.
TURNING TO OTHER ISSUES...THE WIND PROFILER NEAR TIF SHOWS 46KT WIND
AT ABOUT 800 FEET AGL AND...NEAR RAP SHOWS 52KT. WITH SURFACE WIND
320-360 AT 5-10KT...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO INCLUDE ANW...VTN...TIF AND MHN. BY THE TIME
THE STONG LOW LEVEL WIND REACHES BBW-LBF-OGA...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE 25KT OR LOWER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
705 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE THE FRONT
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK OUT WITH TWO DRY DAYS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE... A MORE WIDESPREAD
BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE OBS SUGGEST
THIS IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED... AND IN
FACT SOME OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE FROM THE EC... HRRR AND THE NCAR
ENSEMBLE HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SOUTHWARD TREND. THUS EXPECT THIS
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD... ARRIVING IN WESTERN NY
/ NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FROM ABOUT THE NY STATE THRUWAY NORTH OVER
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY AND THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE WAVE... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD... EXPECT A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON
DRY ACROSS WESTERN NY... ALTHOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS MORNING SOUTH
OF THE FRONT / SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO / AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTH OF THE FRONT / EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION/ WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING / UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50/ AND WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW... AND THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT.
LOWS ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S IN MOST AREA... WITH A FEW DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS NEAR 60. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT... A WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS LINE... AND ALSO MENTIONED SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED. EXCELLENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LATE
OCTOBER SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH THE DRY AIRMASS PROMOTING
DEEPER MIXING.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S FAVORED.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OVERHEAD. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INBOUND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BE DUE TO THE MERGING OF THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A FEATURE
THAT IS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH
A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60 IN
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF
INTEREST FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER LIGHT IN TERMS OF QPF DESPITE THE ABOVE NOTED MERGING OF TWO
FAIRLY PROMINENT FEATURES...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...TOWARD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND RIGHT ON TARGET IN LINE
WITH WPC.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE
EAST LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY OR LATER
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH AT ABOUT THIS TIME THE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS KBUF/KIAG/KROC
THIS MORNING / AND EVENTUALLY TO KART BY MIDDAY/ WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISBY REDUCTIONS TO ABOUT 4SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHOWERS. AT KART... MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AGAIN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY THEN MVFR/VFR AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY...BUT
MAY CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY
THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA/ZAFF
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
418 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE THE FRONT
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK OUT WITH TWO DRY DAYS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO... A MORE
WIDESPREAD BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE OBS
SUGGEST THIS IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED...
AND IN FACT SOME OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE FROM THE EC... HRRR AND THE
NCAR ENSEMBLE HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SOUTHWARD TREND. THUS EXPECT THIS
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD... ARRIVING IN WESTERN NY
/ NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FROM ABOUT THE NY STATE THRUWAY NORTH OVER
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY AND THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE WAVE... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD... EXPECT A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON
DRY ACROSS WESTERN NY... ALTHOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS MORNING SOUTH
OF THE FRONT / SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO / AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTH OF THE FRONT / EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION/ WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING / UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50/ AND WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW... AND THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT.
LOWS ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S IN MOST AREA... WITH A FEW DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS NEAR 60. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT... A WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS LINE... AND ALSO MENTIONED SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED. EXCELLENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LATE
OCTOBER SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH THE DRY AIRMASS PROMOTING
DEEPER MIXING.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S FAVORED.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OVERHEAD. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INBOUND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BE DUE TO THE MERGING OF THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A FEATURE
THAT IS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH
A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60 IN
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF
INTEREST FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER LIGHT IN TERMS OF QPF DESPITE THE ABOVE NOTED MERGING OF TWO
FAIRLY PROMINENT FEATURES...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...TOWARD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND RIGHT ON TARGET IN LINE
WITH WPC.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE
EAST LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY OR LATER
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH AT ABOUT THIS TIME THE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS NEAR KBUF/KIAG/KROC BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON... AND NEAR KART AROUND MIDDAY. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL BUT KART THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AT KART WILL
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
COULD RESULT IN MVFR VIS AROUND 4SM... BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
EXPECT A LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT. AGAIN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS... OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY THEN MVFR/VFR AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY...BUT
MAY CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY
THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA/ZAFF
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS
MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA
INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE
CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING
IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE
ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE
THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY
ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76-
80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF
THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF
THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING
ANY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND DIVERTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORT NORTH OF THE AREA AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS SUCH...A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
TOPPING OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
NELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT COULD SUPPORT BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY: MEAN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE. ANY
MORNING STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT GIVEN PROMINENT MID-LEVEL INVERSION PER LATEST NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MODULATE DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT THE
VERY LEAST RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS
RANGING FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE GULF
REMAINS BLOCKED...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
BETTER WITH PWATS INCREASING TO ~1.5" WITH MODELS ALSO INDICATING
WEAK DPVA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING TO 1380-1385M AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S EAST. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE IN THE 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG +1030MB SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING
ALOFT...UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE
REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT
AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST
HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS
AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT
AGL.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT
INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND
STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS
MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA
INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE
CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING
IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE
ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE
THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY
ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76-
80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF
THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF
THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A DRY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACKDOOR
FASHION AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE DAY TO DAY TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FOR A
MORE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS... HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS
AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NE TO
NEAR 80 SW. A BAND OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS... DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE THE CLOUD
COVER SPREAD OUT/THICKEN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH
A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S W.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA... WITH ONLY ANOTHER TRIALING FRONT APPROACHING/MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PUSH FROM THE
NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... AS A 1030-1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK... WE
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW... WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK... UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A GIVEN TIME
FRAME... WHICH MAY BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME .
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY... WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE
REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT
AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST
HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS
AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT
AGL.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT
INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND
STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS
MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA
INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO A S/W EXITING THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHIFT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN OUR FLOW VEERING TO A NWLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL AID TO
DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR FLOW WILL BECOME WEST-SWLY...ADVECTING A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WARMER AIR MASS WILL PUSH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST POSSIBLY
HITTING 80 DEGREES. A LIGHT SFC WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AID TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE STIRRED...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
(WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS). MIN TEMPS NEAR 50-LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A DRY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACKDOOR
FASHION AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE DAY TO DAY TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FOR A
MORE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS... HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS
AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NE TO
NEAR 80 SW. A BAND OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS... DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE THE CLOUD
COVER SPREAD OUT/THICKEN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH
A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S W.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA... WITH ONLY ANOTHER TRIALING FRONT APPROACHING/MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PUSH FROM THE
NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... AS A 1030-1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK... WE
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW... WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK... UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A GIVEN TIME
FRAME... WHICH MAY BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME .
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY... WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE
REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT
AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST
HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS
AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT
AGL.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT
INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND
STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
MVX RADAR IS SHOWING MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO SARGENT COUNTY WITH
PRECIP LIKELY OVER THE SISSETON HILLS. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO
SW ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A BIT SLOWER THAN INDICATED ON 7 PM
UPDATE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH COLUMN SATURATION AS
MOISTURE OVERCOMES DRY AIRMASS. HAVE UPDATED POPS PER LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE AND TIMING OF PRECIP...AND BLENDED 00Z NAM IN FOR DRY
SLOT TRAILING THE WAVE OF PRECIP...WHICH SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE
JAMES AND SHEYENNE BASINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS
ON THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THAT
IS PARALLEL AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP FROM THE
INHERITED GRIDS AS TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL IS SHOWING THE PRECIP
CROSS THE ND STATE LINE AROUND 02Z TO 03Z. RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE
ON THIS AND HAVE BLENDED IN 22Z RUC DATA THROUGH 12Z. HESITANT TO
CHANGE ANYTHING IN TOMORROW PERIOD UNTIL 00Z PACKAGES COME IN.
ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE RAIN EVENT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD QPF OF 0.50 TO
0.75 WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.25 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE SURGE AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE RAINING IN
ALL AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH PWATS RISING OVER 1 INCH AND A
SATURATED COLUMN.
ON FRIDAY...THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO WC
MN. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN AMOUNTS.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY LARGE DEFORMATION RAIN BAND EVEN IN MOST OF
THE NORTH THOUGH...SO ALL AREAS WILL BE WET AND BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES
FOR FRI NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW AND PRECIP
WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS SHOULD HOLD RAIN AMOUNTS DOWN SOME AT
LEAST...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST GET ONE HALF INCH OR MORE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FOR SAT AND SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT...PERHAPS MIXING WITH A FEW FLAKES INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT ALL AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE WE
WILL LIKELY BE PULLING POPS EVENTUALLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY AS A HIGH PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH ECMWF DEPICTING VIGOROUS BUT OPEN WAVE
SWINGING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM DAKOTAS INTO NORTH WI BY WED AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR IS
INCLUDED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPS DIP MARGINALLY BELOW ZERO
TUE NIGHT/WED RESULTING IN A RW/SW MIX FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
CIGS WILL DROP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 02Z...AS PRECIP SPREADS
NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IFR CONDS AT
ALL SITES TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CIG LIMIT AT 1K FT
AND WITHIN MVFR CONDS UNTIL CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING THE IFR CONDS
INCREASES. DO EXPECT SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...BUT I ENVISION MORE FLUCTUATING CONDS BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR AS THE DAY GOES ON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
851 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE RAIN SHIELD
JUST APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AS OF 02 UTC.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY SLOT AND TROWAL FROM THE PRIOR
FORECAST UPDATE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS
AND THE 21-00 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL
SUGGEST THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 02 UTC...SPREADING NORTH
THEREAFTER. THE 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT A DRY SLOT OVERTAKING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEY ALSO SHOW A TROWAL ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WOULD
COINCIDE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
BOWMAN...DICKINSON THROUGH BEULAH AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
WIDESPREAD RAINS ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. NORTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EVENT...AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE - WHICH WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...ALL OF CENTRAL ND AND THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON...AND TAPER OFF IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND A JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
COULD PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE JET
STREAK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES OVERNIGHT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING PRECIP
TYPES.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
MAY WRAP IN COOLER AIR...LEADING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BUT...A SHIFT
IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW COULD COMPLETELY ALTER THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IN RAIN AND STRATUS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THAT
IS PARALLEL AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP FROM THE
INHERITED GRIDS AS TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL IS SHOWING THE PRECIP
CROSS THE ND STATE LINE AROUND 02Z TO 03Z. RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE
ON THIS AND HAVE BLENDED IN 22Z RUC DATA THROUGH 12Z. HESITANT TO
CHANGE ANYTHING IN TOMORROW PERIOD UNTIL 00Z PACKAGES COME IN.
ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE RAIN EVENT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD QPF OF 0.50 TO
0.75 WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.25 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE SURGE AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE RAINING IN
ALL AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH PWATS RISING OVER 1 INCH AND A
SATURATED COLUMN.
ON FRIDAY...THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO WC
MN. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN AMOUNTS.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY LARGE DEFORMATION RAIN BAND EVEN IN MOST OF
THE NORTH THOUGH...SO ALL AREAS WILL BE WET AND BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES
FOR FRI NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW AND PRECIP
WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS SHOULD HOLD RAIN AMOUNTS DOWN SOME AT
LEAST...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST GET ONE HALF INCH OR MORE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FOR SAT AND SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT...PERHAPS MIXING WITH A FEW FLAKES INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT ALL AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE WE
WILL LIKELY BE PULLING POPS EVENTUALLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY AS A HIGH PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH ECMWF DEPICTING VIGOROUS BUT OPEN WAVE
SWINGING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM DAKOTAS INTO NORTH WI BY WED AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR IS
INCLUDED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPS DIP MARGINALLY BELOW ZERO
TUE NIGHT/WED RESULTING IN A RW/SW MIX FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
CIGS WILL DROP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 02Z...AS PRECIP SPREADS
NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IFR CONDS AT
ALL SITES TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CIG LIMIT AT 1K FT
AND WITHIN MVFR CONDS UNTIL CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING THE IFR CONDS
INCREASES. DO EXPECT SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...BUT I ENVISION MORE FLUCTUATING CONDS BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR AS THE DAY GOES ON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
609 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL
SUGGEST THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03 UTC...SPREADING NORTH
THEREAFTER. THE 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT A DRY SLOT OVERTAKING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEY ALSO SHOW A TROWAL ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WOULD
COINCIDE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
BOWMAN...DICKINSON THROUGH BEULAH AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
WIDESPREAD RAINS ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. NORTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EVENT...AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE - WHICH WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...ALL OF CENTRAL ND AND THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON...AND TAPER OFF IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND A JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
COULD PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE JET
STREAK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES OVERNIGHT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING PRECIP
TYPES.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
MAY WRAP IN COOLER AIR...LEADING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BUT...A SHIFT
IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW COULD COMPLETELY ALTER THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IN RAIN AND STRATUS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT TO
THE FORECAST AREA NORTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WAS
JUST APPROACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO QUICKLY END AS THE WEAKENING VORT MAX
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AS OF 2330 UTC...THE OCCLUDING FRONT WAS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND STRATUS IN
TRAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH
RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE HRRR THROUGH ITS 22
UTC ITERATION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES.
TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT...DECENT
SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS...AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD
SUPPORT GUST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND
LIGHT WINDS WEST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
AFTER LOWS TONIGHT OF 35 NORTHWEST TO 45 SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
A COLORADO LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF
THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. THE 12 UTC GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL HAVE THE
CENTER TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER BY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE OFF TO THE EAST
AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY
TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY AND 20S/30S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE...WAS LOCATED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISN...WHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEARING WILL
OCCUR SLOWLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...SO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
TO OVERTAKE ALL SITES BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN ZONAL FLOW. VIRGA INDICATED
VIA REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING
THE GROUND.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
BUT IT WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NW MTNS BEFORE DAWN. THIS SHOULD CORRESPOND WITH A
THICKENING DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
SO THE HRRR SOLUTION OF A LINE OF SCTD SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS IS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING
OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD
INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY.
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY
SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
/10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE WILL
SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 10KFT WITH SCT CI OVER THE SRN 2/3 WITH
BASES 15-25KFT AGL. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH
OF THE PA/NY BORDER. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRES
MOVG THRU SERN CANADA WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE
AIRSPACE ESP NRN SITES...WITH LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM
220-260.
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUNNY
AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE A COOL AND CLOUDY
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC (ALBEIT WEAKENING). SO OVERALL...TONIGHT
LOOKS LIKE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT TEMPS SHUD BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
AROUND LAKES AND RIVERS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 0 MB SFC
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ACRS THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER
PIEDMONT...HINTING AT POSSIBLE DENSE FOG. THE RAP AND THE NARRE-TL
HAVE ALSO LATCHED ON TO THIS...BUT KEEPING IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR
NOW...I WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION BY THE
AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12-13 C ACROSS THE
MTNS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 14C EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TODAY/S VALUES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
AREA FRI NITE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT. THE FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL SAT NITE AND SUN AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SE INTO THE AREA
THRU SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
NITE AND INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NITE AND SAT...TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE
INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT BAY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PRODUCING CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM ELY TO SLY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THIS TIME...AND THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IN A RELATIVELY
THIN LAYER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE. HAVE KEPT
THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT DO KEEP CLOUDS IN FRI NITE AND SAT
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WILE HIGHS WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EARLY CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY IS WEAK...THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY WHICH SHOULD CREATE WLY UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT WILL ALSO KEEP ANY GULF INFLOW AT BAY AND CREATE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS TRENDS WHICH BRINGS SMALL POP INTO THE NRN MTNS LATE SAT
NITE THEN SPREAD THE PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
THRU THE DAY SUN...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT BEST ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT AND SC/GA MTNS. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS RISE TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THICKNESSES RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE WAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AN ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING IN OVER THE
AREA...WITH ALL FORCING WELL INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WILL BE LURKING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS
THE ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CUTS OFF
FROM THE ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH.
AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE
PERSISTENT AND DECENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WITHIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST AND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP AN
UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE FAVORED SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED HIGHER...BUT RAINFALL
TOTALS REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A NARROW RIBBON OF 0.50-1.00
INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 3-10
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A FAIRLY POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM IS
GOING TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AND PICK UP WHATEVER ENERGY REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SOMETIME MID- TO LATE WEEK. THERE REMAINS
TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS OF COURSE...AS GUIDANCE
UNSUPRISINGLY DISAGREES ON TIMING...EVOLUTION...AND
THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS. THE GFS IS EARLIER WITH THESE FEATURES
AND KEEPS THE GULF LOW MOVING TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE INTERMITTENT
ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ...WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF MORE SLOWLY TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...THEREBY RESULTING IN CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES OF EVENT-TOTAL
PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW MORE INLINE WITH THE 12Z GFS
IN LOW TRACK AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE FOR A
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES DURING THIS EVENT IS INCREASING. THESE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE OF MINIMAL CONCERN HYDROLOGICALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST COUPLE
NIGHTS...EXCEPT FOR WARMING LLVL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING MIN TEMPS
BEING NOT AS COOL. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SFC
DEWPTS HAVE ALSO REBOUNDED...SUCH THAT DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE SIMILAR
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE AREA IS
WEAKENING. BUT STILL EXPECT CALM OR LGT/VRB WINDS AND GENERALLY SKC
OR FEW250. I WILL KEEP THE TEMPO FOR FOG IN KAVL AND KAND TAFS BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS FROM LAST COUPLE NIGHTS. THE REST OF
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. A SUBTLE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP IN
FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW TO NE ACRS ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT KAND. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MOISTURE
REMAINS LACKING FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN CIRRUS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACRS THE NC SITES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACRS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
726 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.UPDATE...
OUR LONG AWAITED RAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
TOTALS ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WE WILL SEND OUT A
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL ALSO
EXPAND THE 100 PERCENT POPS TO AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS IMMINENT.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS IT HEADS EAST FOR THE PLAINS. A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN UPPER STORM IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TAF
LOCATIONS. THIS FEATURE CREATED AN INTERESTING MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE METRO AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MADE IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE DALLAS
AREA. THIS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY
APPEARS TO ARRIVE 13-15Z FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR SO AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE BOUNDARY MIXES OUT.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING..
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL DAY FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF DFW WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS ALREADY TO BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE.
SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW AREAS...BUT LUCKILY
OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOW MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TO
ABSORB INTO THE SOIL WITH JUST MAINLY SOME STREET FLOODING
REPORTED. THE PERSISTENT RAIN AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MODEST COLD
POOL THAT HAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO A GAINESVILLE...TO DECATUR...
TO EASTLAND LINE.
THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY REMAINS ANALOGOUS AT BEST...AS EVEN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS JOIN THE STANDARD MODELS IN NOT RESOLVING THE
CURRENT BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...OR THE COLD POOL VERY
WELL AT ALL. PICKING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS NOT IN THE CARDS TODAY
AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HRRR AND ECMWF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM AND
EUROPEAN MODELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR IS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH TO BE OUTRUN BY
IT/S COLD POOL AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT REFORMING OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE WEST OF A
SHERMAN...DALLAS...COMANCHE LINE WITH MORE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS
EASING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE LARGE SCALE WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE RAINFALL THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT COMBINING WITH ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WHERE
THAT WILL BE IS ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOMEWHERE. OTHER AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
RACING NORTH WITH THE MEAN SSW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
VERY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
EXPAND THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE
MORE PRIMED FROM CURRENT RAINFALL AND REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
THE LAST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG
BEND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING THIS FEATURE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LLJ AND 850MB WAA ENCOUNTER
INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100-110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY DROP A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MY BIG CONCERN WITH THE SECOND EVENT
IS THAT MANY AREAS MAY BE SATURATED OR EXPERIENCING
ONGOING...LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WINDOW IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN
REGARDING BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS
DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS WE FINISH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE TRACK
MORE FLAT AND OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS EITHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OR TAPERING OFF. WITH
MY CONFIDENCE VERY LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL COME MORE IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS. TIMING SUCH
ROUNDS IS ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...THUS WE STRESS TO EVERYONE TO BE
PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF THEY
ARE SUCCUMBED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OR
EXTREME URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. WE WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE
TIMING THE ROUNDS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS BEST WE CAN...BUT THE
BEST BET IS TO BE AWARE AT ALL TIMES...ESPECIALLY DRIVING AND
OUTDOORS...TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT WILL LIKELY
BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR MORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...RAIN...RAIN-PRODUCED COLD
POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
FINALLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND HALLOWEEN...BUT FOR
NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW WITH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS TO
ADVERTISE FUTURE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 78 67 71 59 / 100 100 100 90 60
WACO, TX 69 80 67 74 60 / 70 90 100 100 70
PARIS, TX 68 75 66 72 59 / 90 100 80 100 70
DENTON, TX 64 77 66 71 58 / 100 80 90 90 50
MCKINNEY, TX 64 76 66 72 59 / 100 90 90 100 60
DALLAS, TX 67 78 67 72 59 / 90 100 100 100 60
TERRELL, TX 69 78 67 74 61 / 80 90 100 100 70
CORSICANA, TX 70 80 68 75 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
TEMPLE, TX 70 80 67 74 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 79 64 71 58 / 100 80 80 80 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
&&
$$
30/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.AVIATION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS IT HEADS EAST FOR THE PLAINS. A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN UPPER STORM IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TAF
LOCATIONS. THIS FEATURE CREATED AN INTERESTING MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE METRO AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MADE IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE DALLAS
AREA. THIS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY
APPEARS TO ARRIVE 13-15Z FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR SO AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE BOUNDARY MIXES OUT.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING..
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL DAY FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF DFW WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS ALREADY TO BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE.
SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW AREAS...BUT LUCKILY
OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOW MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TO
ABSORB INTO THE SOIL WITH JUST MAINLY SOME STREET FLOODING
REPORTED. THE PERSISTENT RAIN AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MODEST COLD
POOL THAT HAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO A GAINESVILLE...TO DECATUR...
TO EASTLAND LINE.
THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY REMAINS ANALOGOUS AT BEST...AS EVEN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS JOIN THE STANDARD MODELS IN NOT RESOLVING THE
CURRENT BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...OR THE COLD POOL VERY
WELL AT ALL. PICKING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS NOT IN THE CARDS TODAY
AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HRRR AND ECMWF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM AND
EUROPEAN MODELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR IS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH TO BE OUTRUN BY
IT/S COLD POOL AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT REFORMING OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE WEST OF A
SHERMAN...DALLAS...COMANCHE LINE WITH MORE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS
EASING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE LARGE SCALE WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE RAINFALL THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT COMBINING WITH ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WHERE
THAT WILL BE IS ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOMEWHERE. OTHER AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
RACING NORTH WITH THE MEAN SSW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
VERY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
EXPAND THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE
MORE PRIMED FROM CURRENT RAINFALL AND REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
THE LAST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG
BEND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING THIS FEATURE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LLJ AND 850MB WAA ENCOUNTER
INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100-110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY DROP A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MY BIG CONCERN WITH THE SECOND EVENT
IS THAT MANY AREAS MAY BE SATURATED OR EXPERIENCING
ONGOING...LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WINDOW IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN
REGARDING BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS
DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS WE FINISH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE TRACK
MORE FLAT AND OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS EITHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OR TAPERING OFF. WITH
MY CONFIDENCE VERY LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL COME MORE IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS. TIMING SUCH
ROUNDS IS ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...THUS WE STRESS TO EVERYONE TO BE
PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF THEY
ARE SUCCUMBED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OR
EXTREME URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. WE WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE
TIMING THE ROUNDS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS BEST WE CAN...BUT THE
BEST BET IS TO BE AWARE AT ALL TIMES...ESPECIALLY DRIVING AND
OUTDOORS...TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT WILL LIKELY
BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR MORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...RAIN...RAIN-PRODUCED COLD
POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
FINALLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND HALLOWEEN...BUT FOR
NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW WITH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS TO
ADVERTISE FUTURE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 78 67 71 59 / 100 100 100 90 60
WACO, TX 71 80 67 74 60 / 70 90 100 100 70
PARIS, TX 68 75 66 72 59 / 90 100 80 100 70
DENTON, TX 67 77 66 71 58 / 100 80 90 90 50
MCKINNEY, TX 68 76 66 72 59 / 100 90 90 100 60
DALLAS, TX 68 78 67 72 59 / 100 100 100 100 60
TERRELL, TX 70 78 67 74 61 / 80 90 100 100 70
CORSICANA, TX 70 80 68 75 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
TEMPLE, TX 71 80 67 74 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 79 64 71 58 / 100 80 80 80 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
&&
$$
30/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
559 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
...SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLE REGION. AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH MORE OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED POP AND QPF
AMOUNTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BIEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED
IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF
SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM
MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION
OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS
THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BIEDA
AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT
22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU
22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY
START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE
TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE
UPDATED FOR THEM.
BIEDA
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT
LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE
BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME
FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL
INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY
BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS
PRONE TO IT.
BIEDA
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
98/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED
IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF
SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM
MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION
OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS
THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BIEDA
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT
22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU
22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY
START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE
TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE
UPDATED FOR THEM.
BIEDA
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT
LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE
BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME
FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL
INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY
BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS
PRONE TO IT.
BIEDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 68 57 65 54 74 / 100 100 70 30 5
BEAVER OK 71 57 67 54 73 / 70 100 90 40 5
BOISE CITY OK 63 50 61 46 69 / 100 100 60 10 10
BORGER TX 72 58 67 55 74 / 90 100 80 30 5
BOYS RANCH TX 68 56 67 50 72 / 100 100 50 20 5
CANYON TX 65 57 65 53 73 / 100 100 60 30 5
CLARENDON TX 71 58 65 55 77 / 80 100 90 40 5
DALHART TX 65 53 65 49 71 / 100 100 50 20 5
GUYMON OK 67 55 66 51 73 / 90 100 80 20 5
HEREFORD TX 65 56 67 51 73 / 100 100 40 20 5
LIPSCOMB TX 76 61 66 56 75 / 50 100 90 50 5
PAMPA TX 72 58 66 55 75 / 80 100 90 30 5
SHAMROCK TX 75 61 66 57 77 / 50 100 90 60 10
WELLINGTON TX 77 62 67 58 78 / 60 100 90 60 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
98/18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE THINNED OUT GREATLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK REMAIN COVERED UNDER
STRATUS. WHILE CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR THE CWA...A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO HOME THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR
THE TRANSITION AREA OF BEING CLOUDY AND CLEAR DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. A `BOUNDARY` HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR LUBBOCK AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. THE MAIN THREATS THAT ARE OF CONCERN ASIDE FROM HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
ALDRICH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART CLEARED AT CDS LEAVING VFR
FLIGHT RULES. CIGS HAVE ALSO RAISED AT PVW AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT LBB. ALL CIGS AT THE MOMENT REMAIN AT
VFR. OF QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR TERMINALS PVW AND LBB THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS CDS WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORMS DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 58 KTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
00Z AND LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
ALDRICH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN
MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO
AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF
CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
51/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART CLEARED AT CDS LEAVING VFR
FLIGHT RULES. CIGS HAVE ALSO RAISED AT PVW AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT LBB. ALL CIGS AT THE MOMENT REMAIN AT
VFR. OF QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR TERMINALS PVW AND LBB THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS CDS WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORMS DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 58 KTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
00Z AND LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
ALDRICH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN
MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO
AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF
CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
51/29/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN
MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO
AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF
CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
74/01/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
74/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND THE AUS
TERMINAL AT 06Z. THE STRATUS WILL QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT REACHING SAT 07Z-08Z AND DRT 09Z-10Z. WHILE INITIALLY
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT. HRRR AND MOS AT SOME SITES INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AROUND AND AFTER SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOWER AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INDICATED IN
TAFS. IN ADDITION...PATCHY -RA AND A FEW -SHRAS COULD DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BE REMAIN IFR THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z AT
AUS/SAT AND 17Z AT DRT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO VFR. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS AND A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND INDICATED IN ALL TAFS WITH PROB30.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 70 82 69 79 / 40 30 60 70 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 69 83 68 80 / 40 20 70 70 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 84 70 81 / 40 30 70 70 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 67 78 / 30 30 60 70 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 71 84 70 82 / 40 60 50 60 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 80 67 78 / 30 20 50 70 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 83 69 82 / 40 50 70 70 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 70 82 69 79 / 40 30 70 70 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 71 83 70 79 / 40 20 60 70 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 71 83 71 81 / 40 40 70 70 80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 85 71 82 / 40 40 70 70 80
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500
MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND SOME 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS WELL SO FAR TODAY. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOW BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z THURSDAY...SO THIS MOVEMENT
SEEMS REASONABLE. RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST...AS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT SIDED WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS
WITH ELEVATED CAPES. THE INCREASED CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS IN THIS
AREA IN THE 60S...VERSUS LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEAKENING AS THEY
SHIFT EAST. THESE MAY AFFECT MADISON BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...AND THE
EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL UNTIL AROUND
00Z THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND DEPARTING 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMA.
MODEL LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH CVA WITH LEAD VORT MAX SWEEPING NORTHERN WI AHEAD
OF CLOSED 500 MB LOW CROSSING SRN CANADA DRIVING THE UPPER LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 850 MB 30-
40KT WIND MAX ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOWER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH
BOTH ARE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM NRN MN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN IN QUESTION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOWER LAYERS THOUGH NAM IS MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN THAN GFS.
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...INITIALLY WITH THE 850 MB WAA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH TO PUT IN THUNDER FOR
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
925MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSES ACROSS SRN WI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S...WITH A FEW MID 70S POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
PCPN CHANCES COME TO AN END AS FORCING PUSHES OUT OF AREA WITH FRONT
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LINGER SHOWER
UNTIL FRONT CLEARS SRN WI. COOL AIR SPREADS IN ON NW WINDS WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 8C FROM 00Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...
PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND AND MID 40S ALONG
THE LAKE.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS BUILDS UP ACROSS IA/MN INTO WRN WI.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGGD TO SHIFT FROM MN/IA TO ERN WI AND LAKE
MI AREA BY 00Z. SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED THOUGH OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST
WITH DRY ESE FLOW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGGD TO SHIFT EAST AND
SET UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASING DCVA AND
MOIST ADV STARTS TO APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE/POPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED POPS IN SOME
AREAS TO CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WHEN INFLUENCE OF
NEWD MOVG NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONT SHIFTS EAST DURING THE MORNING. AS 925/850 WINDS TURN MORE
WEST BY AFTERNOON EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE ON THE DECREASE. STILL
SOME VORT ACTION LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON THOUGH MODELS DRY
THINGS OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP POTENTIAL. SO
WILL CONFINE POPS TO MAINLY THE MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH PROGGD TO BE IN CONTROL WITH WNW 500 MILLIBAR
PATTERN. CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SITUATED TO OUR NORTH. DRY FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT SOME
WAA PCPN ACROSS MAINLY NRN WI. WILL LEAVE THE DRY SUPERBLEND POPS
AS IS FOR SRN WI.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE GFS KEEPS ANY SHEARED VORT/WAA PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND SHIFTS
IT EAST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST. AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE QUITE DRY DURING THIS TIME SO HARD TO
GO AGAINST SUPERBLEND POPS ESP WITH ELONGATED/CHANNELIZED LOOK TO
VORT PATTERN AND ANY FORCING FROM THIS PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
GFS MUCH FASTER ON EJECTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL PRECIP THAN
THE ECMWF. ECMWF KEEPS AREA DRY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE FASTER GFS
GENERATES SHRA WITH LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA. CHANCY POPS
FROM THE SUPERBLEND A GOOD COMPROMISE APPROACH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...APPEARS SPOTTY MVFR CIGS HAVE PUSHED EAST
OF FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT IN AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES AT THIS TIME. SKIES CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING...BUT REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL MEAN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE TOWARDS OPEN WATER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY BEFORE BEING CAPTURED BY THE WESTERLY AND TAKEN EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER IOWA THIS MORNING
FROM A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA ALONG WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL. WILL SEE A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY SLOT. THIS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
ENDING THE HEAVIER PCPN THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO SEE DEFORMATION AREA MOVE BACK
INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A CARROLL TO ALGONA LINE. THE
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY BUT
NOTHING VERY STRONG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE RAPID OVERSPREADING OF THE
AREA FROM THE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIPITATION TREND FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND AGAIN FOR MID WEEK. FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN CWA ALONG BAND OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE
TRENDED THIS WAY ATTM. AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AND MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
HAVE ENDED BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN
BEHIND. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND SYSTEM...THOUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR NORMAL.
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF
SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT. UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE ACROSS PACNW AND PUSH EAST.
HOWEVER...GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF THE OUTLIER A BIT FASTER AND
BRINGING SURFACE LOW NORTH FROM GULF REGION...WHILE OTHER MODELS
KEEP SYSTEM SOUTH OF IOWA. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO FAVOR ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND KEEPS SURFACE LOW FURTHER
SOUTH THOUGH STILL ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO IOWA. HAVE
CONTINUED THEREFORE TO TREND AWAY FROM GFS TOWARDS ECMWF WITH
SYSTEM...THEREFORE KEEPING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST FOR END OF PERIOD WITH ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING IN BEHIND.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME
FRIDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR FOG/MIST/RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO THE INCOMING RAIN WILL BE FROM 15-22Z FRIDAY. WITH
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECTING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS WITH ATTENTION ON
WIDESPREAD ARC OF VARIED CONVECTION FROM OK THROUGH KS INTO CO/NE
BORDER. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY KINEMATICS AT
THE MOMENT WITH NOTED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN CO UPPER LOW AND
SUB- TROPICAL STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST. LOBE OF
DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NM/TX/CO/KS PV ANOMALY AND SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING. THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN PUSH NORTH.
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING CONTRIBUTION WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RATHER THAN BAROCLINICITY. THIS IS REALIZED BY CURRENT OK THETA-E
ADVECTION MAX REACHING AT LEAST IA/MO BORDER BY 12Z. HAVE BROUGHT
POPS THROUGH EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND
MAINLY TO BLEND INTO NEIGHBORS AS 300K/305K PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW THROUGH THAT TIME...AND MOST HI RES MODELS
SUGGEST A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING JUST
A TOUCH OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMP WISE...RAW MODELS SUGGEST AT
OR ABOVE THE WARMER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
SIMILAR CONCERNS TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT 36 HOURS. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING TWO MAIN AREAS OF FORCING TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SECOND SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE INTEGRATED INTO THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. THOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST
WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE
INSTABILITY LESSENS TOWARD MIDDAY ACROSS THE WEST WHILE CONTINUING
EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON...DAY TIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. HAVE
REINTRODUCED A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...WITH SOME RECOVERY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF LESSENING OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE
INSOLATION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
TOWARD NORMALS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MORE COMMON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS LOWS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS WELL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. AFTER A TRANQUIL WEEKEND THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AGAIN. OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO FESTER BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO. THE 00Z PACKAGES HAVE TRENDED TO
DISCOUNT THE PHASING OF THE THREE WAVES IN QUESTION WHILE THE 12Z
PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY THE EURO...HAS CONTINUED TO PHASE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND GULF SYSTEM INTO A STRONG FALL
CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. TODAYS
12Z RUN IS NO EXCEPTION. GENERALLY...MODEL BLENDS/PREVIOUS
PACKAGES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK SO
WILL NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER WITH 50S AND POSSIBLE 40S FOR HIGHS
BY THURSDAY AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO 40S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
FOR NEXT WEEK...WILL OPT TO NOT DELVE INTO THE DETAILS OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES. IN EITHER CASE WITH THE GFS OR EURO
SOLUTIONS...THE COLDER TEMPS/INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD QUICKLY
DEPART BY DAY7/DAY8 AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME
FRIDAY MORNING AND INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS FOR VIS FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR FOG/MIST/RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO THE INCOMING RAIN WILL BE FROM 15-22Z FRIDAY. WITH
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECTING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR
APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS
WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND
ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER
THETA-E LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW MUCAPE FIELDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
EVERYWHERE...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE BTWN H85 AND H7.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLED
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEK`S LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS
PROVIDED THESE PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT IS TOUGH TO TALK WITH CONFIDENCE
ON WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL.
INSTEAD OF A MORNING PASSAGE TUESDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
NOT REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED FOR
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WERE NUDGED UP
SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT...
PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY
POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT ANY WINTRY MENTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY WORTH INSERTING INTO THE FORECAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS NO LONGER
APPEAR RIPE FOR A FREEZE.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY MORNING IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR OBSERVING
WIDESPREAD FROST AND...FOR SOME LOCATIONS...A HARD FREEZE. MAINTAIN
THOUGHT THAT TWO METER TEMPERATURE AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT
CAPTURING THESE POTENTIAL COLD CONDITIONS BUT THE GUIDANCE DID DROP
FOR THIS FORECAST RUN.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT BUT DUE TO THE
INCONSISTENT NATURE OF GUIDANCE RECENTLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN MENTIONING ANY TIMING OR
AMOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH AS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE KS AND CO BORDER.
WHILE PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER...THINK THE UPSTREAM LOWER TDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS AT KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-027-041.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CWA NEAR
APPARENT H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NEAR AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS
WRAPPING AROUND CIRCULATION AND INTERACTING WITH DRY SLOT AND
ACTUAL SHOWERS LINE UP WELL WITH POCKET OF H7-H6 INSTABILITY PER
THETA-E LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW MUCAPE FIELDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
EVERYWHERE...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO AFOREMENTIONED
AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE BTWN H85 AND H7.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON SATURDAY
LOTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SUNSET. THESE HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER
30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AS A 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/FRONT. 850-500MB LAYER RATHER
DRY AND POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL IT WOULD BE
AROUND/BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT
SKY COVER FORECAST WITH THE GFS THE DRIER MODEL...ECMWF THE
WETTEST/MORE MOIST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SFC
HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND FOCUS
WILL BE ON LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL AIM FOR LOW TO MID 30S WITH A
CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH AS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE KS AND CO BORDER.
WHILE PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER...THINK THE UPSTREAM LOWER TDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS AT KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND SEASONAL FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WHILE HOURLY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST RAP AND HRRR
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOO DRY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...TIGHTENING UP SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. HYDROLAPSE
VIA LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO ESCAPE FOR SURFACE-BASED
MOISTURE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE BET
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHER THEN THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AND
INCREASING HOURLY DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY FRIDAY WITH INSOLATION
AND DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR...TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES FROM EAST TO WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...BUT PRECIP PROBS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...CUMULATING IN LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES
BY EVE. MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRECIP
TIMING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY TEMPS WERE THUS
FORECAST NEAR THE AVERAGES GIVEN LINGERING PRECIP...CLOUD
COVER...AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARRED BY ONLY LCL MVFR VSBY NR PORTS
SOUTH OF PIT LATE THIS EVE AS A CDFNT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACRS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR SKY/VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A SATURDAY CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2015
Showers were moving northeastward into portions of central and
southeast MO early this morning. This activity was associated with
temperature and moisture advection on the nose of a 30-40 kt
southerly low level jet ahead of an approaching upper level
trough, low over the northern Plains. This precipitation will
spread northeastward through most of the forecast area during the
morning hours. Will get additional development this afternoon as
southwest flow shortwaves move through the area ahead of the upper
level trough and initiate convection within deep moisture over
the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday due
to the cloud cover and precipitation, but still above normal with
southerly low level flow.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2015
Additional, mainly scattered convection is expected tonight and
Saturday as a cold front moves slowly southeastward through our
forecast area late tonight and Saturday as the upper level trough
weakens as it moves northeastward through the northern Plains and
into the Great Lakes region. The greatest threat for convection on
Saturday will be across southeast MO and southwest IL, from STL
south and east. Most of the precipitation will shift south-
southeast of our forecast area by Saturday night as a surface
ridge builds southeastward into our area with low level cold air
advection and drying. Temperatures will be cooler Saturday night,
albeit near normal for late October. The next threat for rain may
begin as early as Monday night as the GFS model spreads precipitation
northward into our area north of a tropical low coming up from TX
and the Gulf Coast region. The ECMWF model keeps this low and its
associated precipitation south of the forecast area, but does
bring rain back into the area by Tuesday night as a deep upper
level trough approaches along with its associated cold front. The
GFS model also has a deepening upper level trough, low which will
bring potentially significant and widespread rainfall amounts to
our area through at least Wednesday followed by colder conditions
for the end of the extended forecast.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Large rain area stretching from west central MO into ne TX will
continue to work its way northeast overnight and into Friday
morning. Extrapolation of regional radar imagery suggests HRRR
is doing a very good job with the eastern edge of the precip, so
have used this to tweak onset of showers. Both HRRR as well as the
new 00z 4km WRF suggest that this band of showers will work across
the region on Friday, with the more persistent rainfall
diminishing over mid MO by midday and over STL area by early
afternoon. Still not seeing a huge area of IFR to our
south/southwest, but latest 00z MOS guidance of both NAM and GFS
continue to strongly lean towards IFR cigs several hours after
the onset of the precip, so have given the forecasts a nod towards
this trend where the precip is expected to be the heaviest...KCOU
and STL Metro locations.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect showers to move into the area during
the predawn hours, with the steadier and heavier precip after
daybreak causing a lowering of both cigs into the IFR range and
vsbys into the MVFR range in the 14-16z time frame. Do expect an
improvement in conditions by mid afternoon as the bulk of the
precip sweeps east of the area.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1200 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Frontal boundary remains stalled along I-70 corridor this afternoon.
However, still expect it to slowly lift back north as a warm front
this evening before upper level trof/main system begins to slide
east towards forecast area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be
on the increase with the activity moving into central MO after
midnight and towards STL metro area around daybreak. As for
temperatures, to remain mild for this time of year with lows only in
the mid 50s to around 60.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Precipitation will be on the increase Friday morning as surface low
begins to lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes, dragging a
decent cold front across the region. Showers and some thunderstorms
expected through Friday night before tapering off by Saturday
evening. With cloud cover and precipitation, highs on Friday will
only be in the upper 60s far north to the upper 70s far east.
Colder air to filter in for the weekend with highs in the low 60s to
low 70s Saturday and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday, with
overnight lows in the 40s, as surface ridge builds in.
Then by Monday, surface ridge begins to move off as next weather
system approaches region. Temperatures to remain near normal through
Tuesday. Next chance for rain will be late Monday night through
Wednesday as system to our south lifts northeastward towards region.
Behind this system, will see much colder air with highs only in the
mid to upper 50s by next Thursday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Large rain area stretching from west central MO into ne TX will
continue to work its way northeast overnight and into Friday
morning. Extrapolation of regional radar imagery suggests HRRR
is doing a very good job with the eastern edge of the precip, so
have used this to tweak onset of showers. Both HRRR as well as the
new 00z 4km WRF suggest that this band of showers will work across
the region on Friday, with the more persistent rainfall
diminishing over mid MO by midday and over STL area by early
afternoon. Still not seeing a huge area of IFR to our
south/southwest, but latest 00z MOS guidance of both NAM and GFS
continue to strongly lean towards IFR cigs several hours after
the onset of the precip, so have given the forecasts a nod towards
this trend where the precip is expected to be the heaviest...KCOU
and STL Metro locations.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect showers to move into the area during
the predawn hours, with the steadier and heavier precip after
daybreak causing a lowering of both cigs into the IFR range and
vsbys into the MVFR range in the 14-16z time frame. Do expect an
improvement in conditions by mid afternoon as the bulk of the
precip sweeps east of the area.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST
TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND
THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI-
ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE
POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR
AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE SHOWERS...INSTRUMENT
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS AT OR
BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AND/OR VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD TO BETWEEN LBF AND OGA 8-10Z AND REACHING
BBW...TIF...AND VTN 10-13Z. THE SHOWERS ARE THEN LIKELY TO LAST 2
HOURS OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE SHORT RANGE FORECASTS
IN THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOW CEILINGS CONTINUING EAST OF A VTN-BBW-LBF. THE INSTRUMENT
CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE MORE RAPIDLY THAN WE ARE THINKING AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY VTN-LBF AND WEST. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF AN ONL-
BBW-LBF LINE AND UNTIL 12Z FOR VTN...TIF...MHN AND OGA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WAS APPROACHING
OR OVER PARTS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA...DICKINSON...AND HETTINGER IN THE
WEST - AND EXTENDED TO NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN SHIELD REACHING
MINOT/RUGBY AROUND 3 AM CDT...AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO IN AGREEMENT REGARDING A DRY SLOT THAT IS PROGGED TO PUNCH INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 3AM-4AM CDT WITH THE COMMA-
SHAPED WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING THE DRY SLOT. THEN WITH
TIME LATER IN THE MORNING THE DRY SLOT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
JAMES BASIN...BUT THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LATER ON FRIDAY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN THE JAMES VALLEY.
THE OVERALL EFFECT OF THE DRY SLOT WILL LESSEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.35 AND
0.50 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE RAIN SHIELD
JUST APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AS OF 02 UTC.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY SLOT AND TROWAL FROM THE PRIOR
FORECAST UPDATE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS
AND THE 21-00 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL
SUGGEST THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 02 UTC...SPREADING NORTH
THEREAFTER. THE 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT A DRY SLOT OVERTAKING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEY ALSO SHOW A TROWAL ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WOULD
COINCIDE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
BOWMAN...DICKINSON THROUGH BEULAH AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
WIDESPREAD RAINS ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. NORTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EVENT...AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE - WHICH WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...ALL OF CENTRAL ND AND THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD RAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON...AND TAPER OFF IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND A JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
COULD PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE JET
STREAK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES OVERNIGHT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING PRECIP
TYPES.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
MAY WRAP IN COOLER AIR...LEADING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BUT...A SHIFT
IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW COULD COMPLETELY ALTER THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND STRATUS ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
504 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY AND
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. A COOL AND CLOUDY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HEADING
INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM...ANTICIPATING PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA NEAR
DAYBREAK. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND PRESENCE OF A FEW OBS WITH LOW
VSBY TOGETHER ARE A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST LOCALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-85. WILL MONITOR OBS TRENDS BUT CURRENTLY I THINK THE IMPACT
WILL BE ISOLATED...AND NO HEADLINES APPEAR NECESSARY.
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUS WILL PERSIST. FURTHER
AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO TOP OUT AROUND 80 IN MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...ABOUT 10 DEG
ABOVE CLIMO AT ALL SITES. PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL PUSH
UPPER RIDGE EWD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN SEABOARD
BY TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST
COAST...DRIVING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWFA FROM THE
NE. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND AS
THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES UP THE BLUE RIDGE...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ALONG THE EAST FACING ESCARPMENT
AND THRU THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MINS ALSO REMAIN WARM...TWO OR THREE
CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
TRANSITION. A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE ON THE E COAST WILL
DEAMPLIFY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS
BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE N AND THE REMNANT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
FL...WITH A CONFLUENCE IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS
OWING TO WHATEVER BECOMES OF THE PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT
OVER TX. EXPECT THAT SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT AND WEAKENS...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMAL BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDINESS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THINK THE BULK OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE DRY...UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE N.
CHANGES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS REORGANIZE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST
AND MS DELTA REGION. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AS TO THE SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THRU MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE
MAIN BOUNDARY TO THE N...WHICH IS MILDLY PREFERRED BECAUSE IF A
TROPICAL REMNANT COMES OUT FROM TX TO THE MS DELTA IT WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT KEEPING SOME UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH WOULD HELP TO DETER THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THAT WILL
KEEP A N-S GRADIENT OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS IDEA
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF AS WELL. WE LACK MID/UPPER
FORCING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PROBABILITY IN THE CHANCE RANGE AWAY
FROM THE TN BORDER. AN OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DISCOURAGE
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC...THUS THE LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS
SCENARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FCST OWING TO A POSSIBLE COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN GETTING KICKED OUT OF THE MS DELTA REGION ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. FEEL MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WEDGE DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONFLUENT UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY ANCHOR A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER SE ONTARIO OR
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOIST
UPGLIDE SHOULD LOCK IN THE WEDGE THRU TUESDAY. TEMPS WERE NOT
CHANGED AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE NUDGED PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD THRU
MID WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BEYOND TUESDAY...
BUT ODDLY ENUF THE END RESULT SHOULD BE SIMILAR. THE PARENT HIGH
SHOULD PICK UP AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSLATE E/NE ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...
TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. HARD TO
SPECULATE RIGHT NOW ABOUT WHAT EFFECT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN
LOW CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA. PRECIP AMTS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WPC DO NOT APPEAR
TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD RESULT
IN A DECENT SOAKING RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES MAINLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z KCLT UPDATE...LATEST HRRR AND RAP THINK DENSE FOG MAY FORM AT
THE FIELD. A FEW NEARBY SITES ARE EXPERIENCING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
THIS A.M. AND IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MAY OCCUR
AT KCLT WITH LITTLE WARNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU
THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OCNL
RESTRICTIONS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO AT KAVL. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT. KAND
ACCORDINGLY SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. FLOW WILL PREVAIL
EASTERLY THOUGH BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. KCLT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS
FLIP FROM NE TO SE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTN. AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO NC TONIGHT...LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN OVER
KHKY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SFC MIXING IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY IN THE EVENT.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACRS THE NC SITES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 44% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY AND
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE A
COOL AND CLOUDY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HEADING
INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
NAM FAMILY GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES. REVISED MENTION THEREOF BASED ON
LATEST PROGS...BUT OVERALL CHANGE IS SMALL.
AS OF 1020 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC (ALBEIT WEAKENING). SO OVERALL...TONIGHT
LOOKS LIKE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT TEMPS SHUD BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
AROUND LAKES AND RIVERS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 0
MB SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ACRS THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER
PIEDMONT...HINTING AT POSSIBLE DENSE FOG. THE RAP AND THE NARRE-TL
HAVE ALSO LATCHED ON TO THIS...BUT KEEPING IT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR
NOW...I WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 RIDGE WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION BY THE
AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12-13 C ACROSS
THE MTNS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 14C EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TODAY/S VALUES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
AREA FRI NITE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT. THE FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL SAT NITE AND SUN AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SE INTO THE AREA
THRU SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
NITE AND INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NITE AND SAT...TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE
INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AT BAY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PRODUCING CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM ELY TO SLY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THIS TIME...AND THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IN A RELATIVELY
THIN LAYER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE. HAVE KEPT
THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT DO KEEP CLOUDS IN FRI NITE AND SAT
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WILE HIGHS WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EARLY CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY IS WEAK...THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY WHICH SHOULD CREATE WLY UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT WILL ALSO KEEP ANY GULF INFLOW AT BAY AND CREATE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS TRENDS WHICH BRINGS SMALL POP INTO THE NRN MTNS LATE SAT
NITE THEN SPREAD THE PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
THRU THE DAY SUN...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT BEST ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT AND SC/GA MTNS. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS RISE TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THICKNESSES RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE WAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AN ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BE SETTLING IN OVER THE
AREA...WITH ALL FORCING WELL INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WILL BE LURKING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS
THE ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CUTS OFF
FROM THE ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH.
AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE
PERSISTENT AND DECENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WITHIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST AND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP AN
UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE FAVORED SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED HIGHER...BUT RAINFALL
TOTALS REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A NARROW RIBBON OF 0.50-1.00
INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 3-10
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A FAIRLY POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM IS
GOING TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AND PICK UP WHATEVER ENERGY REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SOMETIME MID- TO LATE WEEK. THERE REMAINS
TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS OF COURSE...AS GUIDANCE
UNSUPRISINGLY DISAGREES ON TIMING...EVOLUTION...AND
THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS. THE GFS IS EARLIER WITH THESE FEATURES
AND KEEPS THE GULF LOW MOVING TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE INTERMITTENT
ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ...WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF MORE SLOWLY TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...THEREBY RESULTING IN CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES OF EVENT-TOTAL
PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW MORE INLINE WITH THE 12Z GFS
IN LOW TRACK AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE FOR A
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES DURING THIS EVENT IS INCREASING. THESE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE OF MINIMAL CONCERN HYDROLOGICALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU
THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OCNL
RESTRICTIONS...HANDLED WITH TEMPO AT KAVL. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SFC MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT. KAND
ACCORDINGLY SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. FLOW WILL PREVAIL
EASTERLY THOUGH BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. KCLT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS
FLIP FROM NE TO SE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTN. AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO NC TONIGHT...LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN OVER
KHKY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SFC MIXING IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY IN THE EVENT.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ESP ACRS THE NC SITES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 72% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
311 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS
NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF
SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN
BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY
AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS
REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND
CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO
THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER
COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH
ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE
REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE
STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND THE MAIN MOISTURE
PUSH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ026-031-072-073.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE
BORDERLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A THIRD STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED BUT LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF THREE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS LACKING THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE LOWLANDS. A NOTE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RECENT RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE TRYING TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THAT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER OCCURRENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR AREAS EAST OF EL PASO SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH MOST PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FURTHER EAST INTO WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR FOR EASTERN ZONES IN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. EAST
WINDS WILL BECOME LOCALLY WINDY ALONG WEST SLOPES OF AREA
MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER OPEN WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
FOR A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM BUT BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN DEEPENING THE TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SINCE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO OCCUR...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBILITY BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE
IMPACT TO LOCAL AREA WEATHER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER MTNS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBY IN MTN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AFT 06Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFT 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK OPEN TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH MINOR
IMPACTS TO LOCAL AREA WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE GILA REGION AND POSSIBLY
THE SAC MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
OVERNIGHT LOWERING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIVER. LONGER TERM
FORECASTS SUGGEST A ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 75 51 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 75 50 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 72 45 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 36 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 46 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 41 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 72 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 73 44 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 76 51 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 51 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 71 49 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 75 50 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 43 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 71 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 47 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 72 48 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 39 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 62 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 61 41 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 62 39 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 71 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 66 35 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 68 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 71 38 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 69 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 68 43 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 74 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 72 44 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 71 46 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04 LUNDEEN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning has been more active than was previously
expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just
south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of
this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a
weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the
most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface
trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and
radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa.
Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash
flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was
very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under
water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the
public should be cautious travelling this morning.
A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday
bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough
will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the
eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface
front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will
develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection.
Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on
Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only
reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds
scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely.
Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and
continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the
northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but
long range models are indicating another system late in the week
will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 71 54 61 49 / 70 40 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 75 53 66 43 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 82 65 68 56 / 40 50 40 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 74 58 62 49 / 40 40 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 68 50 60 45 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 73 50 65 42 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA TX 74 51 62 42 / 10 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 56 61 46 / 60 30 20 10
ODESSA TX 74 56 64 47 / 50 30 20 10
WINK TX 76 57 68 49 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.AVIATION...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO HAVE MADE IT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE ANOTHER ROUND APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK
HEATING FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
OUR LONG AWAITED RAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE
TOTALS ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WE WILL SEND OUT A
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL ALSO
EXPAND THE 100 PERCENT POPS TO AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS IMMINENT.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING..
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL DAY FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF DFW WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS ALREADY TO BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE.
SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW AREAS...BUT LUCKILY
OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOW MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TO
ABSORB INTO THE SOIL WITH JUST MAINLY SOME STREET FLOODING
REPORTED. THE PERSISTENT RAIN AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MODEST COLD
POOL THAT HAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO A GAINESVILLE...TO DECATUR...
TO EASTLAND LINE.
THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY REMAINS ANALOGOUS AT BEST...AS EVEN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS JOIN THE STANDARD MODELS IN NOT RESOLVING THE
CURRENT BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...OR THE COLD POOL VERY
WELL AT ALL. PICKING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS NOT IN THE CARDS TODAY
AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HRRR AND ECMWF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM AND
EUROPEAN MODELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR IS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH TO BE OUTRUN BY
IT/S COLD POOL AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT REFORMING OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE WEST OF A
SHERMAN...DALLAS...COMANCHE LINE WITH MORE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS
EASING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE LARGE SCALE WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE RAINFALL THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT COMBINING WITH ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WHERE
THAT WILL BE IS ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOMEWHERE. OTHER AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
RACING NORTH WITH THE MEAN SSW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
VERY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
EXPAND THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE
MORE PRIMED FROM CURRENT RAINFALL AND REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
THE LAST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG
BEND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING THIS FEATURE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LLJ AND 850MB WAA ENCOUNTER
INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100-110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY DROP A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MY BIG CONCERN WITH THE SECOND EVENT
IS THAT MANY AREAS MAY BE SATURATED OR EXPERIENCING
ONGOING...LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WINDOW IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN
REGARDING BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS
DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS WE FINISH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE TRACK
MORE FLAT AND OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS EITHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OR TAPERING OFF. WITH
MY CONFIDENCE VERY LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL COME MORE IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS. TIMING SUCH
ROUNDS IS ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...THUS WE STRESS TO EVERYONE TO BE
PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF THEY
ARE SUCCUMBED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OR
EXTREME URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. WE WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE
TIMING THE ROUNDS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS BEST WE CAN...BUT THE
BEST BET IS TO BE AWARE AT ALL TIMES...ESPECIALLY DRIVING AND
OUTDOORS...TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT WILL LIKELY
BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR MORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...RAIN...RAIN-PRODUCED COLD
POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
FINALLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND HALLOWEEN...BUT FOR
NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW WITH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS TO
ADVERTISE FUTURE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 78 67 71 59 / 100 100 100 90 60
WACO, TX 69 80 67 74 60 / 70 90 100 100 70
PARIS, TX 68 75 66 72 59 / 90 100 80 100 70
DENTON, TX 64 77 66 71 58 / 100 80 90 90 50
MCKINNEY, TX 64 76 66 72 59 / 100 90 90 100 60
DALLAS, TX 67 78 67 72 59 / 90 100 100 100 60
TERRELL, TX 69 78 67 74 61 / 80 90 100 100 70
CORSICANA, TX 70 80 68 75 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
TEMPLE, TX 70 80 67 74 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 79 64 71 58 / 100 80 80 80 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
30/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS HEAVY CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THESE
CLOUDS THIN TOWARDS THE WEST AND END OVER VALLEY AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES. RADAR IMAGERY...WHICH HAD RAIN OVER WIBAUX AND RICHLAND
COUNTIES...HAS THE RAIN CLEARED OUT. THEREFORE WILL DROP POPS AND
CLEAR WX GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WILL ALSO UPDATE WIND BASED ON LATEST HRRR GRIDS. ALL
CHANGES ARE ON THE MINOR SIDE WITH NO MAJOR EDITS. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER REGION WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FURTHER TO THE WEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON THE AREA OF RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND BECOME REPLACED WITH DEVELOPING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE FORCING FOR
ASCENT LOOKS BEST. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME HOWEVER APPEARS LIMITED
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHORTWAVE TROF
DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO
LINK THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
LINKAGE SLOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PULLS SOME WARMER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOW EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL A CONCERN AND ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SUPPORT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW DUE
TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. AS EVENT APPROACHES WILL REFINE THE
CHANCES OF DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES. IN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AGAIN DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE BUILDING EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE TODAY FROM THE
WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST
TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND
THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI-
ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE
POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR
AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MIXED VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED TODAY IN SHRA. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP CIGS MVFR IN MANY AREAS. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS EVENING AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1018 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. THE REGION SHOULD SEE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CI TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE...SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD
FRONT EAST INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MARGINAL...BUT THE NAM IS SHOWING
SOME MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S...COOLING INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE
FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW
MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE
THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW
SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION
MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN
THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL
OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND
QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT
SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE
WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION.
GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS
FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME
NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
6K/ 7K FOOT CLOUD DECKS WHERE NONE EXIST. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING CURRENT VFR CLOUDS THE BEST AND SHOWS 6K/7K FOOT CLOUD
DECK QUICKLY ERODING AROUND CMH/LCK. THIS AFTERNOON THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING WINDS
TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL START TO
LOWER TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL
LIFT... RAIN LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY
SATURDAY 8 AM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH ALL OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WE HAD SEEN SOME POST FRONTAL SC ACROSS THE
NORTH EARLIER...BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ATTM. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO
WORK BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL GO WITH PRIMARILY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD
FRONT EAST INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MARGINAL...BUT THE NAM IS SHOWING
SOME MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S...COOLING INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE
FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW
MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE
THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW
SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION
MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN
THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL
OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND
QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT
SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE
WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION.
GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS
FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME
NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
6K/ 7K FOOT CLOUD DECKS WHERE NONE EXIST. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING CURRENT VFR CLOUDS THE BEST AND SHOWS 6K/7K FOOT CLOUD
DECK QUICKLY ERODING AROUND CMH/LCK. THIS AFTERNOON THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALLOWING WINDS
TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL START TO
LOWER TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL
LIFT... RAIN LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY
SATURDAY 8 AM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
648 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE
KAMA TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT
KGUY BY 16Z...TO KDHT BY 17Z...AND TO KAMA BY 22Z. WINDS WILL NOT BE
VERY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ANY LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
NF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...APART FROM
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOL START EACH DAY...WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY SUB-40 MINIMA EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...OWING TO POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH EASTERN
ZONES. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY MAXIMA FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO.
MODELS AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRAVERSE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS ONLY. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE CALLED FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEREAFTER.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEATHER-PRODUCING
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.
COCKRELL
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
6/3
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Nocturnal storms have moved east of TAF sites... may see some
redevelopment today mainly for MAF and FST but did not include in
TAFs. Widespread low clouds and fog this morning with mainly IFR
cigs and vsbys... some local LIFR conditions. Expect VFR
conditions by afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning has been more active than was previously
expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just
south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of
this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a
weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the
most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface
trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and
radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa.
Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash
flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was
very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under
water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the
public should be cautious travelling this morning.
A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday
bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough
will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the
eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface
front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will
develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection.
Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on
Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only
reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds
scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely.
Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and
continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the
northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but
long range models are indicating another system late in the week
will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall.
Hennig
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL
DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AT BEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE
FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO
THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT
OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB
JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING.
TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF
FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION.
THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA.
WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA.
THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY.
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY.
MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR
MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE HOLDING THINGS DRY FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY
AS THE GULF OPENS UP AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH...AND BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
THUS HAVE KEPT THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CAN HOLD TRUE SHOULD SEE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS/ ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DID MAKE
SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS IS DECREASING THE OVERALL SPEEDS IN THE AVERAGED
SOLUTION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 232100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARRIVING
TONIGHT. RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE SITES TONIGHT
ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR TO THE SITES STARTING AFTER 3Z IN THE
WEST AND AROUND 6Z AT KIND AND KBMG AND LASTING AT EACH SITE FOR
AROUND 4-6 HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-13 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. IFR CEILINGS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MORNING BUT
TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THICKER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN MORE PREVALENT SO FAR TODAY...WITH 70S GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE OHIO VALLEY IS PARCHED AFTER SEVERAL
DRY WEEKS AND COULD CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AT BEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED IN THE 295-305K LAYERS IS ABOUT ON THE
FORECAST AREA DOORSTEP AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST INTO
THE EVENING SO TOO WILL THE LIFT...ENHANCING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT HOWEVER WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AND THE HRRR AND BOTH WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BEAR THAT
OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850MB
JET AND THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FORCING.
TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS CONSIDERING CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
INITIAL SURGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDY...DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
LOW PRESSURE STILL BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HOWEVER...THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AS A SECONDARY AREA OF
FORCING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL ADVECT UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIN AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION.
THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SERVE AS THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOL DRY E/NE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA.
WITH WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON DEVELOPMENTS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE U S-MEXICO BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOON TO BE LANDFALLING HURRICANE PATRICIA.
THIS WILL PROMPT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY.
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE DAY.
MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS LARGELY SUPPORTED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE MORE DAY SATURDAY IN THE 70S FOR
MOST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE HOLDING THINGS DRY FOR THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY
AS THE GULF OPENS UP AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH...AND BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA GETTING INGESTED INTO THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
THUS HAVE KEPT THE SUPERBLEND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CAN HOLD TRUE SHOULD SEE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS/ ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DID MAKE
SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS AS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS IS DECREASING THE OVERALL SPEEDS IN THE AVERAGED
SOLUTION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARRIVING
TONIGHT. RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE SITES TONIGHT
ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR TO THE SITES STARTING AFTER 3Z IN THE
WEST AND AROUND 6Z AT KIND AND KBMG AND LASTING AT EACH SITE FOR
AROUND 4-6 HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-13 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. IFR CEILINGS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MORNING BUT
TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 WAVE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA. THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE 00Z
SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA
AFTER THIS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TO THE WEST...A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NE. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FIRING THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS WITH THE
RAIN FALLING AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE OF THIS AFD.
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO BE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH THIS MAY MOVE
THE WARM FRONT NORTH SLIGHTLY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DECREASING. THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS
OUT TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OUR
CWA. HIRES CAMS...INCLUDING CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT
THIS NOTION AS WELL. STILL DECIDED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WARM FRONT
MOVEMENT AND STORMS OUT TO THE WEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A STRONG
STORM IF THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT PULL NORTH AND WE HAVE BACKED SFC
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM WILL ACTUALLY HOLD
STEADY OR BE WARMING AS THE WARM SECTOR ENTRENCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IF THE WARM
LIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOOKS TO BE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR. MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL STILL BE CLOUDY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
A GORGEOUS FALL SATURDAY. THE NAM DOES HAVE WRAPAROUND PRECIP SAT
AM....I DID NOT BUY THIS AS THE NAM CURRENTLY DOES NOT HANDLE THE
CURRENT PRECIP WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
COOLER WITH MOSTLY NEAR SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN EVENT IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXACT TIMING. THE PHASING OF
MOISTURE...SOME FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS HEAVIER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURE MANY DAYS WITH FAIR SKIES
MINS MAY NEED LOWERING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BASED ON PERSISTENCE
THE PAST FEW TO SEVERAL WEEKS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR WITH MOISTURE A
BIT OVERDONE WITH CURRENT SYSTEM. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND CLOSEST
SOLUTIONS UPSTREAM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND OF HI-RES ECMWF/UKMET MIX
WITH GFS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TYPICAL COOL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65 AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS SEEING MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 4S0 AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POOR CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMOUNTS AND
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE SUGGESTED AS PHASING OF ENERGY WITH
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER KNOWN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCAL
OFFICE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WHAT HI-RES ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORTS WITH
IS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF .25 TO 75 INCHES WITH 1 PLUS INCHES VERY
POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF OF
MEXICO DERIVED FROM HURRICANE "PATRICIA" STREAMING AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH MOVE OVER UPPER MIDWEST. HI/LO
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
FRIDAY...MUCH COLDER AND BREEZY TO WINDY ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS PROBABLY BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AT
LEAST 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO HIGH. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AM AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
AVIATION FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS RATHER PESSIMISTIC.
EXPECT RA...SOMETIMES MODERATE TO LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AT EACH TAF SITE IN THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS. ONCE
THIS CLEARS...IFR AND LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WENT TO LOW
END IFR CIGS INSTEAD OF LIFR BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIFE
OCCURRING. AFTER THIS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH NW
WINDS. FROPA COULD HAVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT RIGHT NOW
I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. FUTURE TAF
AMENDMENTS FOR FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THIS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
320 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING
DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS IN PLACE3 OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE
LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS AND
SKY COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING. BL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE
EAST...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT LOWER TD VALUES
IN THE 30S. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH A
FREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. I
DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FURTHER EAST BASED ON
CURRENT TD/WIND FORECAST. THESE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT QUITE AS
CERTAIN AS WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS
TODAY...THOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. I WOULD EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF
INCREASING THEN DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES ON THE WEST COAST AROUND 00Z MONDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY MORNING A THICK
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST TOWARD SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/GEM A BIT FASTER (COMPARED TO
ECMWF) BRINGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL IMPACT HOW FAST CLEARING DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS/GEM MODELS. FOR
TUESDAY UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS ITS PARENT CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT BEFORE THAT POSSIBLY DEAL WITH SOME CLOUDINESS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S WEST TO AROUND 40 FAR EAST.
WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY EAST IN THE MORNING WITH A RAPID CLEARING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA SO HAVE REMOVED PREVIOUS PRECIP MENTION.
NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY QUICKLY BECOMING
LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND FREEZE HILITES ARE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...GFS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLES BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...QUITE DIFFERENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODELS WHICH HAD AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THE ECMWF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE
WITH THAT THOUGHT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CURRENTLY
THINKING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE THINGS DRY
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROCEDURE LOOKS TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
ADVERTISES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC. ECWMF AND A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
COUNTRY...FAR DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WILL COME THE NEED TO
ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN
THE LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE UPPER AND SFC PATTERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2500-2800 KFT (MVFR) HAS
DEVELOPED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK LATE THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED BY GUIDANCE VERY WELL...THOUGH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AT LEAST SHOWS A SIGNAL THAT ROUGHLY MATCHES CURRENT
EXTENT ON SATELLITE. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THIS LAYER LIFTING TO
ABOVE 3000 KFT AND THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. I COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT KMCK UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BASED
ON UPSTREAM EXTENT ON SATELLITE/OBS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CLEARING
TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING/TRENDS ON
SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS.
AS EXPECTED WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AND 30-35KT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER
00Z WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS TROUGHING
DOMINATING PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS IN PLACE3 OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF OUR CW TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW UNSTABLE
LAYER BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS AND
SKY COVER RAPIDLY DECREASING. BL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE
EAST...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT LOWER TD VALUES
IN THE 30S. ALL OF THIS WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH A
FREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. I
DECIDED TO EXTEND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FURTHER EAST BASED ON
CURRENT TD/WIND FORECAST. THESE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT QUITE AS
CERTAIN AS WINDS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS
TODAY...THOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. I WOULD EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. WITH DRY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA THERE
WILL BE ALMOST NO CLOUDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WILL BE A VERY NICE FALL DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
FROST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS FAR AS DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT BUT THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING.
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLED
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEK`S LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS
PROVIDED THESE PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT IS TOUGH TO TALK WITH CONFIDENCE
ON WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL.
INSTEAD OF A MORNING PASSAGE TUESDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
NOT REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED FOR
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WERE NUDGED UP
SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT...
PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY
POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT ANY WINTRY MENTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY WORTH INSERTING INTO THE FORECAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS NO LONGER
APPEAR RIPE FOR A FREEZE.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AS
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY MORNING IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR OBSERVING
WIDESPREAD FROST AND...FOR SOME LOCATIONS...A HARD FREEZE. MAINTAIN
THOUGHT THAT TWO METER TEMPERATURE AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE NOT
CAPTURING THESE POTENTIAL COLD CONDITIONS BUT THE GUIDANCE DID DROP
FOR THIS FORECAST RUN.
A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT BUT DUE TO THE
INCONSISTENT NATURE OF GUIDANCE RECENTLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BEGIN MENTIONING ANY TIMING OR
AMOUNT FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2500-2800 KFT (MVFR) HAS
DEVELOPED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK LATE THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED BY GUIDANCE VERY WELL...THOUGH SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AT LEAST SHOWS A SIGNAL THAT ROUGHLY MATCHES CURRENT
EXTENT ON SATELLITE. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THIS LAYER LIFTING TO
ABOVE 3000 KFT AND THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. I COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THESE
MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT KMCK UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BASED
ON UPSTREAM EXTENT ON SATELLITE/OBS. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CLEARING
TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING/TRENDS ON
SATELLITE/UPSTREAM OBS.
AS EXPECTED WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AND 30-35KT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER
00Z WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL/RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
628 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF OUR
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT IS LOW DUE MAINLY
TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ATTM OFF TO OUR
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHC FOR AN ISOLATED STORM MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA JUST
PRIOR TO FROPA... BUT GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING THE RELATIVELY BETTER
CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WILL BE EAST/SE OF OUR FCST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR. FAIR WX WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW
WHICH WOULD GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND MAYBE MORE OF
RAIN. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY THE RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE. THE FIRST IS ON MONDAY
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX TO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL BEFORE THE
SHOWERS END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
CIGS LOWER. SCATTEERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OUR EASTERNMOST
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.
HOWEVER THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO 30 KTS
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN
THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF
THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE
COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A
RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK
REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF OUR
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERSPREADING ALL OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT IS LOW DUE MAINLY
TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ATTM OFF TO OUR
WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHC FOR AN ISOLATED STORM MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA JUST
PRIOR TO FROPA... BUT GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING THE RELATIVELY BETTER
CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WILL BE EAST/SE OF OUR FCST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR. FAIR WX WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW
WHICH WOULD GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND MAYBE MORE OF
RAIN. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY THE RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE. THE FIRST IS ON MONDAY
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX TO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH GROUND OF THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL BEFORE THE
SHOWERS END.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN CONDITIONS
WILL GO DOWN TO MVR AND IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN BY 06Z. A PERIOD OF
LIFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY
18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO 30 KTS
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN
THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF
THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE
COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A
RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK
REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL DRAW GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS
TO HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS A
RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN IN MO...TRACKING NORTHEAST. BASED ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE RAIN WOULD MOVE INTO MI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT IS BATTLING A DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THUS MOST MODELS KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP IT DRY FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THE HIGH RES EURO WOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING IN BEFORE 00Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN...NOT MUCH IS THERE. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVING TONIGHT WITH A HIGH
PWAT AIRMASS ARRIVING. EVEN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS TO ME THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
EXPANDING AS THEY MOVE IN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM. WHILE THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY 12Z SAT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOME INSTABILITY
PERSISTS. THUS WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
EARLY ON...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET...BUT THEN MORE WET
WEATHER APPEARS A GOOD BET TOWARD MID WEEK.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE WNW WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH. EXPECT COOL AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS TX. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE BRINGING IT NORTH INTO MI. THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SOUTHERLY STREAM
PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY AND BRINGING A DECENT AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TOWARD MICHIGAN BY WED. WITH THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION THIS COULD BE A VERY WET SYSTEM FOR SW LOWER. ADDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR WED AS WE SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER THE CHILLY START TO THE WEEK READINGS WILL
MODERATE INTO MID WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD TURN
COLDER THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND NW FLOW RETURNS. EVEN
SO...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN CONDITIONS
WILL GO DOWN TO MVR AND IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN BY 06Z. A PERIOD OF
LIFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL GO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY
18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE WIND WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATER TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER OVER TIME EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING.
BASED ON THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS SHOULD
DEVELOP. WILL BE GOING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND START IT UP
00Z SAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WIND TODAY AS VALUES OVER 25
KNOTS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN RIGHT AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...IN
THE BALLPARK OF 0.20-040 INCH...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF
THE DRY SOIL.ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH A MORE
COMPLEX SETUP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL AS A
RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FLOODING RISK
REMAINS LOW AS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM OF COURSE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WAS POSITIONED
IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...REACHING
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO LESS THAN
1K FEET AS THIS LOW APPROACHES...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CLOSE VICINITY
TO THE FRONT /AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/.
THE FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN MN AROUND 10PM...THE TWIN CITIES
AROUND 2AM...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND 4AM. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
MARKEDLY IN SPEEDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BASICALLY END BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...AND THE LOW
STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING IN WESTERN
MN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...MID DAY FOR THE TWIN CITIES...AND THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE GREATER EAU CLAIRE AREA. WITH THIS SETUP...LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE MORNING WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM IN TO THE
50S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD WILL FOLLOW
THE RAIN OF TDA INTO TNGT AS A PAIR OF HIGH PRES AREAS...
SEPARATED BY A WEAK CDFNT...WILL BREEZE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HIGH PRES AREA WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS ON ITS WAY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS
WITH THE SECOND CENTERED OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA ON ITS WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEAK CDFNT IN BETWEEN MAY BRING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY EVEN A MIX OF -RA/-SN...TO W-CENTRAL WI SUN
NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN TO
BRING IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY FROM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S OVER THE WEEKEND TO
THE LWR-MID 50S WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE LWR-MID 30S.
TUE THROUGH FRI...A SHARP UPR LVL TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE COMING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES MON-TUE...DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. THIS TROF WILL ALLOW A LOW PRES SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BRING IT INTO THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS IN THE LATE TUE THRU LATE WED. IN ADDITION...MODELS
DEPICT A CLOSED-OFF UPR LVL LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROF WHICH
WILL HELP WITH PRECIP GENERATION ACRS THE REGION SO A FAIRLY DAMP
TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION.
NOT LOOKING FOR AN OVERABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT MORE OF THE
TYPICAL MID-FALL COOL/DAMP/SHOWERY TYPE OF WX. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME -RA/-SN MIXTURE IN CENTRAL MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI AROUND
SUNRISE EARLY WED MRNG BUT OTHERWISE THE PRECIP WILL COME AS -RA.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THEN A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BOTH AS
THE SFC AND ALOFT LOOKS TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
NEXT WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AS HIGHS DIP INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE TUE-WED SYSTEM THEN RECOVER
TO THE 50S BY FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STEADY STREAM OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WESTERN MN HAS SEEN MOST OF THIS BATCH
OF RAIN COME TO AN END...BUT WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AS IT
DRAWS NEAR...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...JUST A MATTER
OF TIMING THESE CONDITIONS IN...WHICH FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
BASED ON THE HRRR CONSISTENCY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
MARKEDLY WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAU CLAIRE.
KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE AIRPORT BY 6PM. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND UPDATE IF THIS
TIME CHANGES AT ALL. IN TERMS OF THE WIND SHIFT
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL THE
FRONT ARRIVES...SO EXPECT A TURN FROM SE TO NW TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AROUND 07-08Z. ONCE THE WIND TURNS NW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTINESS. CEILINGS FINALLY BREAK UP
MID DAY TOMORROW...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
INTERESTING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY
ENDING LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION.
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WELL
DEFINED DRY SLOT ARCHING BASICALLY SOUTH/WEST OF I-94/35 OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AT FIRST GLANCE...ONE MAY THINK THAT THE
PRECIP IS OVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE.
THE DRYSLOT IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS
MERELY A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. IT IS NOT A RESULT OF THE CYCLONE
OCCLUDING...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND MOISTURE PROFILES THAT LEAN WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND BRING RAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ACTUAL PRECIP IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN THIS APPARENT DRYSLOT REGION. SPC
MESOANALYSIS IDENTIFIES A LARGE AREA OF H850 TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF BANDED PRECIP LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE A
NORTHWARD AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHEAST BEFORE GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH AN INCH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...SO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHERWISE UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL... THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH BRIEF
RIDGING AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK GIVING WAY TO A HEALTHY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE DETAILS AFTER THE WEEKEND... BUT IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OVER ALL ON THE BIG PICTURE... SO A CONSENSUS
APPROACH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE A BIT OF
LINGERING PCPN SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST... BUT OTHERWISE
WE/LL HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO ROBUST RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE HELPING TO DEVELOP THAT SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO OUR
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY... WITH TUESDAY NIGHT
CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVER THE AREA. WE COULD WIND UP BEING SPLIT BY PCPN TO OUR NORTH
AND SOUTH... AS THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEAKENS AND A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STEADY STREAM OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WESTERN MN HAS SEEN MOST OF THIS BATCH
OF RAIN COME TO AN END...BUT WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING. AS IT
DRAWS NEAR...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...JUST A MATTER
OF TIMING THESE CONDITIONS IN...WHICH FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
BASED ON THE HRRR CONSISTENCY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
MARKEDLY WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAU CLAIRE.
KMSP...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE AIRPORT BY 6PM. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND PRECIP TRENDS AND UPDATE IF THIS
TIME CHANGES AT ALL. IN TERMS OF THE WIND SHIFT
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WIND TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL THE
FRONT ARRIVES...SO EXPECT A TURN FROM SE TO NW TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AROUND 07-08Z. ONCE THE WIND TURNS NW...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTINESS. CEILINGS FINALLY BREAK UP
MID DAY TOMORROW...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
233 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
COUPLE THINGS TO FOCUS ON INCLUDING WRAPPING UP THE UPPER LOW MOVING
WHICH GAVE US THE RECENT RAINFALL...AND SOME LOCALLY FROSTY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
CENTER OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR ONEILL NEBRASKA AND
ON ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST. TRAILING SOUTH IS SURFACE TROUGH...ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TROUGH IS A WIND SHIFT AND
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY MAINLY...WITH DRY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOWING ITS PASSING. CLOSER TO THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PERSISTENT SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS LINGERED ALL DAY... FAILING TO FILL IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL
MARCHING NICELY TO THE EAST. FRANKLY...THE HRRR AND SPC WRF HAD A
BETTER HANDLE ON ITS MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BEING
VERY SPARSE. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY END ANY PRECIPITATION
RISK.
LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL AREAS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY DAWN. ATTENTION TURNS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL A DECENT BREEZE
FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE LOWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
BY DAWN SATURDAY...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS.
GOSPER...PHELPS AND KEARNEY NORTHWARD...HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED
FROSTY/FREEZE CONDITIONS AND ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THE REST OF THE FALL. THE COUNTY OF CONCERN IS FURNAS
COUNTY WHERE 33 TO 36 DEGREES IS MOST LIKELY...AND HAVE INCLUDED
THEM IN A FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
AFTER THE COOLER START SATURDAY...AND A BIT OF A MORNING BREEZE IN
EASTERN AREAS... THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
THE REGION AND TURN QUITE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF. EXPECT SOME
CLEAR BLUE SKIES THANKS TO OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENT KEEPING THE
DUST DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES. ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A FEW COOLER
NIGHTS.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH 850MB WINDS AT 25
KNOTS OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE VERY STRONG WINDS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE OPEN WAVE
THAT REACHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE TRIMMED THEM BACK A
LITTLE BIT. WITH CLOUDS AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT
COOLER. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND
AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF STILL HAS THE MAIN LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PERIOD
HAS MUCH POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN STORY THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OR SO OF THE FORECAST BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY...THANKS TO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPPING LOW CLOUDS AROUND FROM THE NORTH
INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN WITH FLUCUTATING
CEILINGS FROM 2K TO 5K. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASING
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH SET TO MOVE THROUGH KGRI SHORTLY...AND
GUST OVER 20KTS UNTIL EVENING...BUT STILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 10
TO 15KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER COULD SNEAK BY
KGRI PRIOR TO ABOUT 1815Z...THATS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER 06Z TO 08Z TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE
REMAINDER OR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ082.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
114 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NEB AND A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST IN THE SAME AREA HAS UNEXPECTEDLY SPAWNED A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE RAP MODEL WHICH TRANSLATES THIS RAIN SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST
TODAY. POPS ARE IN THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. BY SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AND
THE WRN SANDHILLS. SFC WINDS REMAIN COUPLED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE RAP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS OF WIND AT 850 MB TODAY WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 T0 30 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AS QUASI-
ZONAL...TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 0C ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AND POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE
PLATTE...NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE...AND NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE.
NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A TANDEM OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CR_INT EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THESE TROUGHS.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE PROCEDURE AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE
POPS AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR
AVERAGE /0C/ EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF IMPACT POSSIBLE
TO KVTN HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CIGS
WILL BE MVFR. KLBF ALSO SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS...WITH IMPROVING
CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
607 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE STARTING IN THE
WEST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ONGOING
UNTIL IT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A
VERY MOIST SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES IS WORKING INTO EASTERN INDIANA. AS THIS BAND RUNS
INTO DRY AIR THINK THE SHRA WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER BAND QUICKLY IS
SHOW TO DEVELOP ON THE HRRR/RAP AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AREA
AROUND 06Z IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THESE SHORT TERM MODELS THEN
START TO DIFFER WITH THE HRRR BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A
GOOD BAND OF RAIN REACHING THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF CLE TO NEAR BJJ BY
10 TO 11Z. THE RAP DOESN`T GET PRECIP THIS FAR UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. WILL
INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST WHERE WHERE THE
MODELS AGREE MORE THAT PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH MOST OF THE TEMP FALL
BEFORE 06Z. THUS...EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S FOR THE INLAND
EXTREME EAST TO 50 TO 55 IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM
LAKE COUNTY WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING CLOUD DECK. AS
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL OHIO THE MODELS
INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER INDIANA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT THEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL JET COULD MAKE FOR SOME
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH PAST PEAK HEATING
HOURS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BROKEN LINE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO CAPITALIZE
ON THE SHEAR.
EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER...ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT RAIN AS PW`S JUMP TO AROUND 1.5" SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER (3KM) WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RELATIVE TO THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY BRING DOWN
HEAVY RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS. GIVEN HOW DRY THE AREA HAS BEEN THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THE
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STORM MOTIONS NEAR 50KT.
THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN WITH NW FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAKE (WHICH CONTINUES TO COOL
INTO THE 50S) AND THE H850 IS NOT NOTABLE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL SUDDENLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OF PATRICIA WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE DEEPENING TROUGH...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING THE LOCAL AREA.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD REACH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TAPPING SOME COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY NOT CONSISTENT THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE WHEN IT COMES TO PHASING A LONG WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 MID
WEEK...WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SATURDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT. HERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT IT IS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING NON VFR
POSSIBLE FOR NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL CHOPPY ON LAKE ERIE WITH A BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW. THE
WIND MAY ACTUALLY COME UP A FEW KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION
BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE FROM THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BUT WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES HEADING INTO THE OPEN WATERS AND CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND WHERE THE WIND WILL COME AROUND
FROM THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WITH WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SD IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION
ZONE. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW ARE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE RAPID
CITY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE A 59 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE
NWS OFFICE JUST BEFORE 800 AM. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER
OFF TOWARD SUNSET.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING AND EASTWARD
MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA BY MIDDAY AND EXIT THE CWA BY SUNSET.
SOME SUN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS
NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF
SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN
BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY
AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS
REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND
CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO
THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER
COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH
ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE
REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE
STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
072>074.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1056 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TROF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WITH WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SD IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION
ZONE. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE LOW ARE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN SD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE RAPID
CITY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE A 59 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE
NWS OFFICE JUST BEFORE 800 AM. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER
OFF TOWARD SUNSET.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ADJUST FOR DIMINISHING AND EASTWARD
MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA BY MIDDAY AND EXIT THE CWA BY SUNSET.
SOME SUN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S...WITH 40S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
STACKED STORMS SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER SCNTRL SD WILL CONTINUE ITS
NERLY TRACK. DRY SLOTTING HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF
SD...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS NE WY...THE NRN
BLKHLS INTO NW SD. TODAY...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE INTO WRN SD...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW SD THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE RAPID CITY
AREA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND HRRR SHOWING WINDS
REACHING ABOUT 28 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE MRNG TO
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN MEADE AND
CNTRL/WRN PENN TODAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WILL END THIS AFTN AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S TODAY...THEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BECOME ZONAL SAT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PER
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE PERIOD REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF PAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO
THE FLOW. THERE IS SOME GROWING MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER
COMPACT CLOSED LOW TUE-WED WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS VERY WINDY AND COOL CONDS WED. ALTHOUGH THE IMPETUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS A CLOSING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WHICH
ARE TYPICALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY FORECAST MODELS. HENCE...HAVE
REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED GIVEN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
FLOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID NEXT WEEK IF THE
STRONGER CLOSED LOW SOLUTION VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND THE MAIN MOISTURE
PUSH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ026-030-031-
072>074.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
110 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
NOW THAT THE SECOND MORNING ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA HAS PAST EAST OF
DFW AIRPORTS...NEXT CONCERN WILL BE TIMING THE NEXT ROUND EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WACO/S CONCERNS INCLUDE
PERSISTENCE OF CURRENT TSRA W/+RA AND WHEN ANY BREAKS WILL OCCUR
WITH TIMING OF TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY ANOTHER DIFFICULT CHALLENGE.
OTHERWISE...CIGS FLUCUATING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR TO CONTINUE BEING
PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. TIMING THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING FOR
SWITCHING TO PERMANENT NORTH FLOW.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES WEST OF THE AREA WITH RIPPLES
OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS AND MEXICO. WITH MOISTURE NEAR MAXIMUM FOR LATE OCTOBER WE
EXPECT FEW MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH AT TIMES INTENSE
RAINFALL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HURRICANE
PATRICIA NEAR MAZATLAN OFF THE WESTERN MEXICAN COAST WILL ALSO
ADD TO THE MIX LATER THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS BY THE TIME
ANY EFFECTS FROM PATRICIA SHOULD OCCUR.
DFW...
WILL CARRY VFR WITH VCSH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BEFORE INTRODUCING
THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA INTO THE MIX. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR WITH THIS SECOND RD COMING TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY +RA. ESE WINDS 5-7 KTS
SHOULD BECOME SE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. TIMING ANY ROUNDS BEYOND
THE FIRST 12 HRS IS DIFFICULT WITH SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM AND WILL
MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS FOR SIMPLICITY/S SAKE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.
WACO...
HOW LONG TO PERSIST CURRENT TSRA W/+RA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
FOR NOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON APPEARS REASONABLE.
AFTERWARD...WILL FOLLOW WITH SHRA WORDING WITH VCTS. ESE WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
.....QUICK OVERVIEW...PRECIPITATION EVENT.....
FLASH FLOOD WATCH... NOW INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 7AM
SUNDAY.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS... WIDESPREAD TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA WITH HEAVIEST LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX.
HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. ON SATURDAY...HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS... ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED 8 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOODING THREAT... HIGH. WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MORE RAIN FALLS ON WET GROUNDS. URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS RAINS CONTINUE.
RIVER FLOODING THREAT... MODERATE. RIVERS ARE NOW STARTING TO
RESPOND UPWARD WITH CONTINUED RAIN. SHOULD SEE MORE RUNOFF MAKING
IT INTO STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH TONIGHT.
.....DISCUSSION.....
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TO THE SOUTH...MAJOR HURRICANE
PATRICIA NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 200 MPH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL
LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. A HURRICANE THIS STRONG
HAS A WELL DEFINED MATURE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EFFICIENTLY EVACUATES AIR OUT OF THE TOP OF THE
HURRICANE. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS CLOCKWISE
ROTATING BANDS WHICH ALREADY EXTENDS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME IMPORTANT LATER TONIGHT TO HELP ENHANCE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.
THOUGHTS FOR TODAY...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SHOWED SIGNS
OF WEAKENING IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND THE WELL DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION IS NOW
RETREATING TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS IN THE METROPLEX HAVE NOW
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY NOT BE AS IMPORTANT IN
FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
INSTEAD...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE
OF A 35KT LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO
THE WEST OF THE METROPLEX IN AN AREA OF MODERATE WARM ADVECTION
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. ITS TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TODAY...BUT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD SEE ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT
BE THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BY TONIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO
WEST TEXAS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL
BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP TO GREATLY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
GOOD FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO FORT WORTH TO BONHAM. THIS AREA COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY AND THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THIS MEANS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A SOUTHWARD MOVING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 68 73 60 71 / 100 100 100 60 30
WACO, TX 74 68 75 61 71 / 100 90 100 70 40
PARIS, TX 75 65 73 60 71 / 100 90 80 60 60
DENTON, TX 73 65 71 58 69 / 100 100 90 50 20
MCKINNEY, TX 73 66 72 59 70 / 100 100 90 60 30
DALLAS, TX 73 68 73 61 71 / 100 100 100 70 30
TERRELL, TX 74 67 74 61 70 / 100 100 100 70 50
CORSICANA, TX 74 68 76 63 71 / 100 90 100 80 50
TEMPLE, TX 75 67 74 61 71 / 90 90 100 80 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 64 71 57 70 / 100 100 80 40 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
05/91
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Fog and low clouds have been slow to erode, and could continue to
affect FST and MAF through the first hour or so of the forecast
period. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail, though
thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall could affect MAF this
afternoon. A cold front will start to move through the area late
in the forecast period, with winds increasing and veering to the
northeast, with gusts up to 25-30KT possible behind the front
Saturday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning has been more active than was previously
expected with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing just
south of I-20. It has been very difficult finding the cause of
this narrow band of convection, but the HRRR indicates there is a
weak trough in this area...and combined with an upper jet is the
most likely culprit. Cell movement is parallel to this surface
trough (towards the east-northeast) causing training to occur and
radar indicates a very narrow band where an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain may have fallen just south of Midland and Odessa.
Have issued a flood advisory but feel the threat for major flash
flooding is low since the rain fell in mostly rural areas and was
very localized. Still, some farm to market roads may be under
water in places in southern Ector and Midland counties so the
public should be cautious travelling this morning.
A secondary upper level trough will drop into New Mexico Saturday
bringing a cold front south into Central Texas. This upper trough
will be positively tilted keeping the highest rain chances in the
eastern Permian Basin Friday. Northeast winds behind the surface
front will be enhanced by an area of low pressure that will
develop along the Texas coast, enhancing cold air advection.
Guidance has been consistent in dropping high temperatures on
Saturday and have followed suit with highs in many locations only
reaching the lower 60s. This could be a little low if clouds
scatter out Saturday afternoon so will have to watch this closely.
Zonal flow will bring a warming trend starting Sunday and
continuing into Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the
northern tier of states bringing a weak cold front Wednesday but
long range models are indicating another system late in the week
will be the one to bring the next chance for rainfall.
Hennig
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$