Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/22/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS. && .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... STORM ACTIVITY STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS REMAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES...NOT SO MUCH ELSEWHERE. THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH FLOODING OVER SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS OF FAR NORTHERN METRO PHOENIX. RUNOFF IN NEW RIVER AND SKUNK CREEK HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE PRECIP GAUGE READINGS AND RADAR ESTIMATES. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF A NARROW ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. IN ADDITION TO THE PVA...UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO IN PLAY. THE LATEST RAP INDICATES THAT THE SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF MARICOPA COUNTY BY 20Z. HOWEVER...IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS SOME MODEST VORTICITY AS THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR BLYTHE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FAR NORTHERN BAJA...WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP HOLDS ON TO SIGNIFICANT CAPE. OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING SREF...TRENDS DOWN THE CAPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO DECREASE AS WELL. THE SHORT OF IT IS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH GOING ON THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECASTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 320 AM... AFTER AN EVENING OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH BROADER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING SEVERAL POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARIZONA. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCES OF ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. AS OF NOW THINKING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REORIENT ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PV ANOMALY ACCOMPANIED BY A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP TROUGH...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH FURTHER. THIS STRONG PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THEN SWING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AMPLE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA SIGNIFICANTLY. STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL SLOW ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH AN AREA OF FOCUSED VERTICAL ASCENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO GET DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DROP LEAVING MAINLY A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEEM RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BRING IN A WEAK RIDGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND THEN EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...OVENIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 2 PM MOST OF THE STRONG STORMS HAD ENDED AND MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS FOLLOWING A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY AOA 6K FEET. REDEVELOPEMENT OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY BY MID EVENING WITH BKN-OVC CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS WED...WITH BASES GENLY 7-10K FEET. GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO WED WILL BE SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ISOLATED SIDE. THUS...AFTER 02Z-04Z WE WILL GO WITH PREDOMINANT -SHRA...AND KEEP VCTS TO COVER THUNDERSTORM THREATS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND VARIABLE SIDE...BUT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW SHOULD STAY IN ARIZONA...BUT KBLH MAY BE ON THE FRINGES OF POSSIBLE WEATHER AND THUS WE WILL KEEP -SHRA ALONG WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY ABOVE 7K FEET. NO WEATHER EXPECTED AT KIPL...JUST FEW-SCT HIGHER BASED CU OR MID DECKS WITH BASES MOSTLY 8-10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING WEST/NORTHWEST AT KIPL AND NORTH AT KBLH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB...STARTING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH WARMER DESERTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES POSSIBLE. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...AJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
923 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... STORM ACTIVITY STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS REMAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES...NOT SO MUCH ELSEWHERE. THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH FLOODING OVER SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS OF FAR NORTHERN METRO PHOENIX. RUNOFF IN NEW RIVER AND SKUNK CREEK HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE PRECIP GAUGE READINGS AND RADAR ESTIMATES. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF A NARROW ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. IN ADDITION TO THE PVA...UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO IN PLAY. THE LATEST RAP INDICATES THAT THE SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF MARICOPA COUNTY BY 20Z. HOWEVER...IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS SOME MODEST VORTICITY AS THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR BLYTHE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FAR NORTHERN BAJA...WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP HOLDS ON TO SIGNIFICANT CAPE. OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING SREF...TRENDS DOWN THE CAPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO DECREASE AS WELL. THE SHORT OF IT IS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH GOING ON THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECASTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 320 AM... AFTER AN EVENING OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH BROADER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING SEVERAL POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARIZONA. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCES OF ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. AS OF NOW THINKING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REORIENT ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PV ANOMALY ACCOMPANIED BY A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP TROUGH...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH FURTHER. THIS STRONG PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THEN SWING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AMPLE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA SIGNIFICANTLY. STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL SLOW ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH AN AREA OF FOCUSED VERTICAL ASCENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO GET DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DROP LEAVING MAINLY A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEEM RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BRING IN A WEAK RIDGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND THEN EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHWARD AND ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID MORNING /ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS YUMA/SW MARICOPA COUNTIES/ AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL PHOENIX TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS BUT IT WOULD APPEAR CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRIMARILY AFFECT ARIZONA...ALTHOUGH BLH MAY SEE SOME STORM ACTIVITY. SHOULD BE TOO DRY AT IPL TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...AJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN AVIATION...LEINS FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
928 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SPANISH PEAKS. LIKELY SEEING SOME HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE CULEBRA RANGE AND SPANISH PEAKS...BUT HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT SO CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK ON TARGET. STILL LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A LULL THU MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CO. LATEST NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN ITS POOR PERFORMANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE SOLUTION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS. HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY... ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW-- .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY... TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW-- && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...PGW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH. ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN LATELY. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FAVORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO AND KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z ...KMTJ...KCNY...KMTJ...KASE AND KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 RESENT TO FIX TYPO. .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH. ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN LATELY. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FAVORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z...KMTJ KCNY KMTJ KASE KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
247 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH. ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN LATELY. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FAVORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z...KMTJ KCNY KMTJ KASE KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE/JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1222 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY DIGGING THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA. STRONG DIVERGENT PORTION OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS FOR AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW. LOCALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS PRIMED FOR HAIL WITH THE WET BULB ZERO LEVEL BELOW 11KFT...MOISTURE IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND INSTABILITY IS FAIR WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND MID- LEVEL DRYING. STORM MOTION IS TO THE NE AT 25KTS. SO EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS MAY HAVE LESS POTENTIAL RUNOFF IMPACT DUE TO HAIL PRODUCTION AND SPEED OF STORMS. STILL THE FOUR CORNERS SOILS ARE SATURATED OR NEARLY SO. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS LATE AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES. INTENSITY HAS BACKED DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL SEEING A FEW STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE COOLER AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS WYOMING. HRRR AND RAP BOTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WILL DECREASE POPS AS WE WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR TODAY...DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ROTATE UP AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WE SAW LAST EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH...WHICH WILL BE MORE PRONE TO QUICK AND SUDDEN RUNOFF IN OUR SLOT AND ROCK COUNTRY. WITH THE LOW SLOW TO MOVE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE OVER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT SEES CONVECTION ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING WAVES WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO PUSH IN LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP A BIT...MAYBE AS LOW AS 9K BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. AT NOW APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BACKING OFF QPF NUMBERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH SOME AGREEMENT THERE...WILL STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND ALLOW POPS TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. ANOTHER WAVE DOES APPROACH BY MONDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW WITH THAT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TO START OFF THE EXTENDED...WITH A NUDGE UP OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z...KMTJ KCNY KMTJ KASE KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029. && $$ UPDATE...JOE SHORT TERM...JDC LONG TERM...JDC AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES. INTENSITY HAS BACKED DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL SEEING A FEW STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHRTWV ROTATING NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE CONDS ARE COOLER AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS WYOMING. HRR AND RAP BOTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WILL DECREASE POPS AS WE WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR TODAY...DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ROTATE UP AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WE SAW LAST EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH...WHICH WILL BE MORE PRONE TO QUICK AND SUDDEN RUNOFF IN OUR SLOT AND ROCK COUNTRY. WITH THE LOW SLOW TO MOVE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE OVER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT SEES CONVECTION ROLL THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING WAVES WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO PUSH IN LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP A BIT...MAYBE AS LOW AS 9K BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. AT NOW APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BACKING OFF QPF NUMBERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH SOME AGREEMENT THERE...WILL STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND ALLOW POPS TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. ANOTHER WAVE DOES APPROACH BY MONDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW WITH THAT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TO START OFF THE EXTENDED...WITH A NUDGE UP OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...JDC LONG TERM...JDC AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1132 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUMBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN THE POPULATED AREAS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ROLLING NE OVERNIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SPEED MAX AND SHRTWV ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH BLEND OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 TONIGHT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A JET COUPLET PRODUCING SOME DEFORMATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. LESSER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT 25-30 KTS SO LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID OCTOBER. THE WET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT BY MIDDAY THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...UPSTREAM OF THE LOW. LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER JET WILL TAKE AIM ON THE FOUR CORNERS AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 THE LOW MEANDERS THROUGH AZ ON WED/WED EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ON THU. THEREFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU...WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THU...SO COVERAGE WILL BE MORE EGALITARIAN...EXCEPT SHOWERS WILL STILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SPLITTING SECONDARY WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THU. THIS ALREADY WEAK WAVE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE...AND WILL FORM A TROUGH OVER WESTERN AZ ON FRI. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH AZ FRI NIGHT. WHILE SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DECREASE. THEREFORE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. A SHORT-LIVED...WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TROUGH...AND OVER OUR CWA ON SAT. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL FOLLOW...BUT THESE ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THEREFORE THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAIN MILD...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029. && $$ UPDATE...JDC SHORT TERM...JOE/EH LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
447 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AS SIGNIFICANT ENERGY AND DEEP TROUGHING DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THESE HEIGHT FALLS AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL HELP TO FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER OUR HEADS QUITE DRY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WAS WELL SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING LAST EVENING...AND DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH MOISTENING OF THIS AIRMASS THROUGH TODAY. ALL THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...GENERALLY BELOW 800MB WHERE SOME AIRMASS MOISTENING IS OCCURRING FROM THE LOWER LEVEL WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN ORGANIZATION OR POSITION THROUGH TODAY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER STATOCU OFF THE ATLANTIC CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR OR THE STATE...HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS THEY ATTEMPT TO MOVE INLAND...AND WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MANY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... GENERALLY BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE MORNING...SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS SEEN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING OF THE LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE. WIDELY SCT AND VERY SHALLOW SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE INLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. KEEPING MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10% EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER...A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS INLAND AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SUMTER/POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ANY SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT THIS FAR INLAND FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WETTING RAINS FOR ANY PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH LOWER 80S NORTH AND MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LESS GUSTY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY SPEED CONVERGENCE SPRINKLES SHOULD AGAIN BECOME CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF THE STATE. SO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND HENCE NEITHER DOES THE FORECAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO A SCT CUMULUS FIELD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN REMAIN BELOW 10% FOR ALL AREAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT WEAKEN BY A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)... PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADA. A CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. U/L ENERGY WILL DIG ALONG THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CARVING OUT A L/W TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BUILD THE DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...UNDER-CUTTING AN EXTENSIVE U/L RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA THROUGH ALASKA. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BRIDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND U/L ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE U/L RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHTS LOWER LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES BUT WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK L/L INSTABILITY WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED AND GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EVENING. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LESS GUSTY WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. && .MARINE... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ELEVATED AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS INCREASING EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLD TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW GOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL AT TIMES BE RATHER GUSTY...LEADING TO ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT...AND WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 86 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 84 66 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 SRQ 85 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 83 63 86 65 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 83 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
958 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BELIEVE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME RIVER VALLEYS. THE SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE PLUS GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATED LITTLE FOG. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELIEVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TOMORROW. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT DEWPOINTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING...BY NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES...INDICATING THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE IMPROVED CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING AGS/OGB. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC AND UTILIZING THE CROSSOVER TEMP METHOD VSBYS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 07Z FOLLOWED BY A PREVAILING GROUP OF IFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS THROUGH 12Z AT AGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT OGB 08Z-12Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTHER TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BELIEVE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME RIVER VALLEYS. THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATED LITTLE FOG. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELIEVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TOMORROW. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT DEWPOINTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THIS EVENING...BY NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES...INDICATING THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE IMPROVED CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING AGS/OGB. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC AND UTILIZING THE CROSSOVER TEMP METHOD VSBYS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 07Z FOLLOWED BY A PREVAILING GROUP OF IFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS THROUGH 12Z AT AGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT OGB 08Z-12Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTHER TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
650 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE...1027 HPA...CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL HOLD ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME. THE LATEST NAM AND RAP SHOW A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 20/12Z GEM CLOUD COVER PRODUCT. HAVE LOWERED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS...BUT STILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A HILTON HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT ENSUES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL INLAND. WEAK ISENTROPIC 295-300K ASSENT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 2-3 AM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH INLAND PENETRATION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES APPROACH THE GEORGIA BEACHES...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED IN THOSE ZONES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE IN TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. MODELS SHIFTED THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST BOTH OF THESE DAYS, SO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REFLECT THIS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS, BUT NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT. FRIDAY THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL (IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S), THEN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD DRIVE A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN SUBSIDENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THEN NORTHWEST AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. COULD SEE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND...BUT SUSPECT ANY CIGS THAT ARE ESTABLISHED WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS AT BUOYS 41008 AND 41112 SUGGEST SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED THERE. IT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TIMING LOOKS GOOD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PREVAIL FAR OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS AND AN ELONGATED BUT WEAK COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL CREATE A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST MODERATE BREEZE (AROUND 15 KT). WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE SHOULD REACH THE STRENGTH OF A FRESH BREEZE (AROUND 20 KT). THESE STRONGER WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LONG FETCH POINTED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL ALLOW LARGER WAVES TO BUILD. THESE WAVES WILL PROPAGATE INTO OUR WATERS, MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OR POSSIBLY FRIDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS COULD BUILD TO 6 FT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ONE WITH THIS PACKAGE BECAUSE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OFFSHORE AND THE ORIENTATION THE BEST FETCH TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WEAKENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN BRIEFLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE THEY COULD START DETERIORATING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374. && $$ ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
901 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A cold front is beginning to push into the northwest portion the forecast area with little fanfare, and do not expect this to change much for the rest of the night. The wave driving the front into the area is quickly pushing off into the eastern Great Lakes/Canada, taking most of the forcing with it. There is a weak wave tracking northeast into the Midwest from the Plains and this disturbance has some mid=level returns (likely only sprinkles or virga) spreading into western Missouri and Iowa. This disturbance is likely to impact only the northern portion of the forecast area later tonight, so have limited slight chance PoPs to this area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, going forecast looks good and only slight tweaks have been made. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA. 19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid- level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with timing and location of this front through the end of the week and have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole area. The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week, another weather system will move into the area with another chance of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible. Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A cold front will slip into the central Illinois terminal area tonight and eventually stall. This will result in mainly light winds through the 00Z TAF forecast period. The precipitation risk with FROPA is minimal, and not mentioned in terminal forecasts, and VFR conditions should prevail through the entire period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
639 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA. 19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid- level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with timing and location of this front through the end of the week and have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole area. The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week, another weather system will move into the area with another chance of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible. Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A cold front will slip into the central Illinois terminal area tonight and eventually stall. This will result in mainly light winds through the 00Z TAF forecast period. The precipitation risk with FROPA is minimal, and not mentioned in terminal forecasts, and VFR conditions should prevail through the entire period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight, additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast. Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10- 15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area. Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday. Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to- run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern portions of Illinois. Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows generally in the low 40s. && && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Brisk southwesterly winds gusting to between 20 and 25kt will persist for the balance of the afternoon before subsiding to around 12kt by sunset. Models show another nocturnal LLJ developing tonight, oriented from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois. While the core of the jet will remain just W/NW of the central Illinois terminals, forecast soundings suggest 40kt winds developing at around 1500ft at KPIA overnight. Mid/high clouds will be on the increase tonight as well, as the jet strengthens and a weak short-wave tracks through the region. Many high-res models show scattered showers/thunder developing along the nose of the jet across Iowa, then pushing into northern Illinois overnight. Due to the proximity of these showers, have included VCSH at KPIA between 05z and 11z. After that, short-wave quickly passes to the east and the mid-level clouds scatter by Wednesday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is unfolding across central Illinois...courtesy of high pressure anchored over the southeast CONUS. The only potential fly-in-the-ointment is a small cluster of convection that has developed ahead of a cold front over northwest Missouri. These storms have been tracking to the E/NE this morning and will continue to do so over the next few hours. Most model guidance suggests the convection will remain W/NW of the KILX CWA: however, the HRRR shows it potentially tracking across locations northwest of the Illinois River by mid to late afternoon. Based on current radar/satellite loops...will trend toward the HRRR solution. As a result...will be maintaining slight chance PoPs for showers across the NW CWA this afternoon. Elsewhere around the area...am expecting partly to mostly sunny skies with high temperatures climbing well into the 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Gusty southwest winds will highlight the weather today. The winds will be driven by a relatively tight pressure gradient across IL from NW to SE, as our area remains wedged between high pressure in the southeast states and a cold front extending from Lake Superior to western Kansas. The cold front will sag closer to IL this afternoon, with spotty showers or sprinkles possible after 21z/4 pm for areas NW of the Illinois river. Moisture content of the approaching airmass will be limited, so any rainfall amounts will be very light. Despite increasing cloud cover this afternoon, high temps will climb above yesterday, with readings in the mid 70s toward Indiana and upper 70s in west of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 High pressure has settled over the southern Atlantic Coast this morning as south/southwesterly flow continues into the Midwest. The warmer temperatures will continue through tomorrow. The overnight forecast is mainly dry with the exception of areas along and NW of the Illinois River Valley. A weak boundary to the NW will settle into the Midwest providing a focus for some sct precip. The airmass that the boundary is running into is fairly dry and precip will be difficult to come by, but the models are persistent in developing a few showers. Warm temps through Wednesday and dry...but a weak boundary settling/developing in the region will allow for a more northeasterly flow to winds through the end of Thursday and limit the afternoon warming. Models previously kept the sct showers to the north, however, recent runs are dropping the sfc wind convergence a little further south. As of yet, leaving Thursday dry. The 00z GFS came in with a thin line of showers associated with this front and cannot rule out the possible addition of some low pops for Thursday, but will hinge greatly on how much moisture can actually return to the atmosphere over the next few days with the continued southerly flow off of the Gulf Coast, and more southwesterly aloft from the deeper moisture to the SW. Previously drier forecast is starting to erode well before the weekend system, but a lot hinges on the moisture advection from the SW, so the pops will remain low. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and Saturday. Have kept the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Brisk southwesterly winds gusting to between 20 and 25kt will persist for the balance of the afternoon before subsiding to around 12kt by sunset. Models show another nocturnal LLJ developing tonight, oriented from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois. While the core of the jet will remain just W/NW of the central Illinois terminals, forecast soundings suggest 40kt winds developing at around 1500ft at KPIA overnight. Mid/high clouds will be on the increase tonight as well, as the jet strengthens and a weak short-wave tracks through the region. Many high-res models show scattered showers/thunder developing along the nose of the jet across Iowa, then pushing into northern Illinois overnight. Due to the proximity of these showers, have included VCSH at KPIA between 05z and 11z. After that, short-wave quickly passes to the east and the mid-level clouds scatter by Wednesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Fire weather risk will remain a concern today, due to SW winds gusting up to 20-25 mph, low relative humidity of 25-30% and dry fuel moisture. Increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold front will reduce mixing heights this afternoon, keeping winds lower than yesterday. Increasing dewpoints will keep relative humidity slightly higher as well, which prevent us from reaching Red Flag Warning criteria today. However, burning will still be discouraged due to the borderline conditions. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Barnes FIRE WEATHER...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is unfolding across central Illinois...courtesy of high pressure anchored over the southeast CONUS. The only potential fly-in-the-ointment is a small cluster of convection that has developed ahead of a cold front over northwest Missouri. These storms have been tracking to the E/NE this morning and will continue to do so over the next few hours. Most model guidance suggests the convection will remain W/NW of the KILX CWA: however, the HRRR shows it potentially tracking across locations northwest of the Illinois River by mid to late afternoon. Based on current radar/satellite loops...will trend toward the HRRR solution. As a result...will be maintaining slight chance PoPs for showers across the NW CWA this afternoon. Elsewhere around the area...am expecting partly to mostly sunny skies with high temperatures climbing well into the 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Gusty southwest winds will highlight the weather today. The winds will be driven by a relatively tight pressure gradient across IL from NW to SE, as our area remains wedged between high pressure in the southeast states and a cold front extending from Lake Superior to western Kansas. The cold front will sag closer to IL this afternoon, with spotty showers or sprinkles possible after 21z/4 pm for areas NW of the Illinois river. Moisture content of the approaching airmass will be limited, so any rainfall amounts will be very light. Despite increasing cloud cover this afternoon, high temps will climb above yesterday, with readings in the mid 70s toward Indiana and upper 70s in west of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 High pressure has settled over the southern Atlantic Coast this morning as south/southwesterly flow continues into the Midwest. The warmer temperatures will continue through tomorrow. The overnight forecast is mainly dry with the exception of areas along and NW of the Illinois River Valley. A weak boundary to the NW will settle into the Midwest providing a focus for some sct precip. The airmass that the boundary is running into is fairly dry and precip will be difficult to come by, but the models are persistent in developing a few showers. Warm temps through Wednesday and dry...but a weak boundary settling/developing in the region will allow for a more northeasterly flow to winds through the end of Thursday and limit the afternoon warming. Models previously kept the sct showers to the north, however, recent runs are dropping the sfc wind convergence a little further south. As of yet, leaving Thursday dry. The 00z GFS came in with a thin line of showers associated with this front and cannot rule out the possible addition of some low pops for Thursday, but will hinge greatly on how much moisture can actually return to the atmosphere over the next few days with the continued southerly flow off of the Gulf Coast, and more southwesterly aloft from the deeper moisture to the SW. Previously drier forecast is starting to erode well before the weekend system, but a lot hinges on the moisture advection from the SW, so the pops will remain low. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and Saturday. Have kept the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. The main aviation concern continues to be with the threat for LLWS early this morning, especially from KSPI-KBMI. There will be about 30-35 knots of speed difference over a short distance aloft, with winds at 1200-1800 feet from around 230 deg at 45 kts, and surface winds at 180-210 direction at 10 to 15 kts. Further east at KDEC and KCMI, it appears the winds will remain just below criteria early this morning, so will leave the threat out at those two sites. Winds will increase quickly this morning, with sustained 13-17kt and gusts to 25kt. Wind gusts will diminish with sunset, but sustained speeds could remain 10-12kt overnight from the south. Clouds will begin to increase across northwest Illinois later this afternoon as the cold front approaches. Cirrus and alto-cu will be the primary cloud types late today and tonight as spotty showers develop near PIA and BMI. No mention of VCSH was included with this TAF issuance, due to the low chances. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Fire weather risk will remain a concern today, due to SW winds gusting up to 20-25 mph, low relative humidity of 25-30% and dry fuel moisture. Increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold front will reduce mixing heights this afternoon, keeping winds lower than yesterday. Increasing dewpoints will keep relative humidity slightly higher as well, which prevent us from reaching Red Flag Warning criteria today. However, burning will still be discouraged due to the borderline conditions. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Shimon FIRE WEATHER...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 SFC COLD FRONT EXITING FAR S/E CWA ATTIM AND HAVE REMOVED PCPN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WATCHING AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN ELEVATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS IS DEPICTED PRETTY WELL ON NAM/RAP 305-310K SFCS. NAM AND RAP BOTH SHOW THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT... AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXPANDED PCPN CHCS... WITH MAIN CORRIDOR OF PCPN CHCS FAVORED SOUTH OF HWY 20 TO HWY 34. DRYING NORTHERLY SUB-CLOUD LAYER FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW MEASURABLE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THUS FOR NOW CAPPED POPS AT JUST 20 PERCENT... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP/PFM HAVE BEEN SENT. M^2 && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A LLJ RUNNING FROM TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RADAR HAS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. 18Z SFC DATA INDICATES THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NEAR KASX TO KSLN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A TONGUE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS PRIOR TO SUNSET WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF I-80. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BECOMING RAIN FREE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MAY SEE LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL. DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT FRIDAY MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS CYCLE. LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...POOR OR BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THE MAIN CONCERN OF BEING TOO LIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS A RISK. MOST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO UNDERPLAY THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. THE DEWPOINTS MOVING NORTH IN PLAINS ALSO APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE SUPPORTING MORE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS IN MAY LOCATIONS WITH .2 TO .8 INCH AMOUNTS SUGGESTED PER LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES. POOR CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM DAYS 6/7 AN ISSUE ALSO. OVERVIEW...FORCING AND INITIALIZATION TODAY SUPPORTS A 75/25 BLEND OF HI-RES ECMWF WITH GFS. FORCING LOOKS OK BUT AREA RAIN AMOUNTS AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS SECTION MAY BE SEVERAL TENS OF A PERCENT TOO LIGHT. LARGE SCALE CONVERGENT FLOW IN PAST SUPPORTS LARGE AREAS OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER. THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR LATER SHIFT TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS SW SECTIONS MAYBE AFTER 4 AM LOCAL. MINS MID 40S NE WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MID 50S SW SECTIONS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LATER SHIFTS IN SW SECTIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING SE WINDS. FRIDAY...UPPED POPS WITH CATEGORICAL OVER PARTS OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER 10 PERCENT OR MORE HIGHER POPS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. MOST RAIN TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN MOSTLY PM HOURS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST MOSTLY .2 TO .8 INCH AMOUNTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. RISK OF ANY IS NIL DUE TO LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY AND SATURATED AIRMASS. WEAK TRIPLE POINT FORCING ALSO SUPPORTS ENHANCE RAIN AMOUNTS. FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF SHEARING FORCING IS OVERDONE AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. PW VALUES MAY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH EMBEDDED STORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 50S NW TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD EXIT EARLY WITH CLEARING AND BREEZY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. AREA HIGHS SHOULD TEND TOWARD MOSTLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED BY 2 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES WITH MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65 AND LOWS POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH INTENSIFYING TROUGH SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER POPS AND DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS WHEN TIMING IS BETTER ASSESSED NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOISTURE AND FORCING SUPPORTS AT LEAST MODERATE AMOUNTS MOST AREAS WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BASED ON TRENDS...THIS RISK SHOULD BE KNOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POOR CONFIDENCE ON HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH 50 AND 60S A COMPROMISE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME SPRINKLES OR HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVE AND OVRNGT WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH OF SFC COLD FRONT. NORTWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY 12Z THEN EASTERLY BY 18Z THU. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...NICHOLS AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER TO RE-INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN EARLY THU MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS RESULTED IN SOME DECENT BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS NOW GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER MORE TIMELY HRRR AND RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST CURRENT ELEVATED NE/KS PRECIP WILL OOZE INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH BASED. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL PACKAGES...THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE APPEARS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH. TRADITIONALLY...INSTABILITY LESSENS ONCE THE LAYER BECOMES SATURATED IN COOLER DRIER AIR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDER...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO MENTION. OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME WITH A PARTIALLY SPLIT FORCING REGIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE H850 JET AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. NONE THE LESS A PERIOD OF HIGH POP WILL STILL BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY DESPITE THE REALIZATION THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE ON TARGET WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A DECENT COOL OFF FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKS PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS MAY PHASE INTO ONE LARGER STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEEPEN A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONCURRENTLY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL GULF COAST SYSTEM EDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME FROM TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE H500 FIELDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE EURO HAS ALLOWED THE ENERGY OF THE LEADING WAVE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE NET RESULT IS EITHER A MORE NORTHERLY STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS OR A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE PLAINS IF THE EURO MODEL VERIFIES. THOUGH WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG FALL SYSTEM NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. DETAILS OF DAILY WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE BETTER PARSED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY. IF THE EURO WERE TO VERIFY...DAY TIME HIGHS BY THURSDAY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF COLD RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...22/00Z ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NAM, GFS, and RAP were all in good agreement with another upper level disturbance, located just west of Baja California at 00z Tuesday, approaching southwest Kansas early tonight. A surface trough of low pressure will be located from southeast Colorado into south central Nebraska by late day. Latest NAM indicating limited low level forcing along this front and 0-6km shear will be 20 knots or less. CAPE values near the surface trough is forecast to be less than 600 J/Kg so at this time not overly excited about late day convection, however unable to rule out a few isolated storms in far western Kansas early this evening. The chance for will improve during the overnight hours as moisture and improving upper level lift develops ahead of an upper level trough that is forecast to cross western Kansas tonight. At this time the better forcing will be across far western Kansas early tonight and then shift north after midnight. The potential for afternoon cloud cover will make temperatures a little tricky today, however am expecting a fair amount of sun so will based highs on 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures. This is close to the latest guidance of highs mainly in mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 On Wednesday moisture will continue to improve in the 850mb to 700mb level as another upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest. Better difluent flow will be present aloft, especially late day as a surface boundary drops south into southwest Kansas. Given this will stay close to the previous forecast with precipitation chances increasing late day and early Wednesday night. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears to occur across western and central Kansas late Wednesday night and Thursday given the moisture forecast across western Kansas and the location of the upper level jet streak east of the upper low that will be crossing the four corners region on Thursday. Also given the expected precipitation and cloud cover will continue to favor lows near or above guidance while undercutting highs on Thursday. Thursday night into Friday the upper low opens up as it lifts northeast into the northern Plains. As this upper level trough crosses western Kansas Thursday night the precipitation chances is expected to taper off from west to east. There will then be a slight chance for some showers or even an isolated thunderstorm late Friday night as a weak upper level trough crosses the central high plains. The weekend will be mainly dry and cool with highs mainly in the 60s Both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 VFR expected at KDDC, KGCK and KHYS through the TAF period. A surface trough extending from near KHYS southwestward to near KGCK is resulting in breezy southwest surface winds across the region. A shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners region will bring increasing high clouds tonight and widely scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms overnight and into Wednesday morning with a low risk of directly impacting the terminals with flight restrictions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 84 56 73 56 / 0 20 40 80 GCK 85 55 67 53 / 0 30 60 80 EHA 82 55 66 53 / 20 30 70 80 LBL 84 57 73 56 / 20 20 50 80 HYS 85 56 70 54 / 0 30 40 60 P28 83 60 77 59 / 20 10 30 70 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...GLD/024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NAM, GFS, and RAP were all in good agreement with another upper level disturbance, located just west of Baja California at 00z Tuesday, approaching southwest Kansas early tonight. A surface trough of low pressure will be located from southeast Colorado into south central Nebraska by late day. Latest NAM indicating limited low level forcing along this front and 0-6km shear will be 20 knots or less. CAPE values near the surface trough is forecast to be less than 600 J/Kg so at this time not overly excited about late day convection, however unable to rule out a few isolated storms in far western Kansas early this evening. The chance for will improve during the overnight hours as moisture and improving upper level lift develops ahead of an upper level trough that is forecast to cross western Kansas tonight. At this time the better forcing will be across far western Kansas early tonight and then shift north after midnight. The potential for afternoon cloud cover will make temperatures a little tricky today, however am expecting a fair amount of sun so will based highs on 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures. This is close to the latest guidance of highs mainly in mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 On Wednesday moisture will continue to improve in the 850mb to 700mb level as another upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest. Better difluent flow will be present aloft, especially late day as a surface boundary drops south into southwest Kansas. Given this will stay close to the previous forecast with precipitation chances increasing late day and early Wednesday night. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears to occur across western and central Kansas late Wednesday night and Thursday given the moisture forecast across western Kansas and the location of the upper level jet streak east of the upper low that will be crossing the four corners region on Thursday. Also given the expected precipitation and cloud cover will continue to favor lows near or above guidance while undercutting highs on Thursday. Thursday night into Friday the upper low opens up as it lifts northeast into the northern Plains. As this upper level trough crosses western Kansas Thursday night the precipitation chances is expected to taper off from west to east. There will then be a slight chance for some showers or even an isolated thunderstorm late Friday night as a weak upper level trough crosses the central high plains. The weekend will be mainly dry and cool with highs mainly in the 60s Both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING) ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A surface trough over extreme western KS will contribute to different gradient wind speeds across the area. The more breezy site with higher gusts to around 25 knots will likely be at DDC this afternoon. If any showers or storms follow the weak shortwave models in the NAM later this evening or tonight, conditions will still be VFR and short lived; too low confidence for mention in the terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 84 56 73 56 / 0 20 40 80 GCK 85 55 67 53 / 0 30 60 80 EHA 82 55 66 53 / 20 30 70 80 LBL 84 57 73 56 / 20 20 50 80 HYS 85 56 70 54 / 0 30 40 60 P28 83 60 77 59 / 20 10 30 70 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...Updated Short term and Long term discussions... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NAM, GFS, and RAP were all in good agreement with another upper level disturbance, located just west of Baja California at 00z Tuesday, approaching southwest Kansas early tonight. A surface trough of low pressure will be located from southeast Colorado into south central Nebraska by late day. Latest NAM indicating limited low level forcing along this front and 0-6km shear will be 20 knots or less. CAPE values near the surface trough is forecast to be less than 600 J/Kg so at this time not overly excited about late day convection, however unable to rule out a few isolated storms in far western Kansas early this evening. The chance for will improve during the overnight hours as moisture and improving upper level lift develops ahead of an upper level trough that is forecast to cross western Kansas tonight. At this time the better forcing will be across far western Kansas early tonight and then shift north after midnight. The potential for afternoon cloud cover will make temperatures a little tricky today, however am expecting a fair amount of sun so will based highs on 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures. This is close to the latest guidance of highs mainly in mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 On Wednesday moisture will continue to improve in the 850mb to 700mb level as another upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest. Better difluent flow will be present aloft, especially late day as a surface boundary drops south into southwest Kansas. Given this will stay close to the previous forecast with precipitation chances increasing late day and early Wednesday night. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears to occur across western and central Kansas late Wednesday night and Thursday given the moisture forecast across western Kansas and the location of the upper level jet streak east of the upper low that will be crossing the four corners region on Thursday. Also given the expected precipitation and cloud cover will continue to favor lows near or above guidance while undercutting highs on Thursday. Thursday night into Friday the upper low opens up as it lifts northeast into the northern Plains. As this upper level trough crosses western Kansas Thursday night the precipitation chances is expected to taper off from west to east. There will then be a slight chance for some showers or even an isolated thunderstorm late Friday night as a weak upper level trough crosses the central high plains. The weekend will be mainly dry and cool with highs mainly in the 60s Both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A surface trough of low pressure will slowly slide east into western Kansas early this morning as an upper level disturbance moves from the Texas Panhandle to central Kansas. 00Z BUFR soundings indicating moisture ahead of this first upper level system will be located above 6000 ft AGL and a period of VFR ceilings are anticipated across western Kansas between 06z and 12z Tuesday. Southerly winds at around 15 knots will continue overnight with a few higher gusts possible at times. These southerly winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot range and begin to gradually veer to the southwest after 12z Tuesday as the surface trough moves into western Kansas, especially at GCK and HYS. Mid level moisture will begin to spread into southwest Kansas after 00z Wednesday as the next upper level trough approaches moves northeast across eastern New Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 85 57 73 56 / 0 30 50 70 GCK 86 56 67 53 / 0 30 60 70 EHA 83 56 66 53 / 0 40 60 70 LBL 85 59 73 56 / 0 40 60 70 HYS 86 57 70 54 / 0 30 50 60 P28 83 60 77 59 / 0 20 40 60 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 VALLEY TEMPS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LOWERED THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR COLDER READINGS IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF RECENT OBS...BUT WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH A RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT TIGHTER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST TOWARD MUCH LOWER PRESSURE. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S YIELDING HUMIDITIES DOWN IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE DEEP MIXING IS BRINGING DOWN SOME OCCASIONAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT AND BROAD RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL DRIFT PAST EASTERN KENTUCKY AMID THOSE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN DOES START TO CHANGE AFTER THE SHORT TERM WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. AGAIN FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AGAIN...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE MODERATING HIGH DEPARTING THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH SIMILAR LOW RH CONCERNS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE...AS WELL...RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW RH AND INCREASING WIND CONCERN IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STILL A LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...PROVIDING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...BUT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO WEDNESDAY...ANY WIND COULD POSE A FIRE DANGER. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. A COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOISTURE STARVED AND POSE NO THREAT TO OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SKY COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SOUTH WAVE CROSSING TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WHILE ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THESE TWO WAVES WILL INTERACT AS THEY MOVE EAST...IT DOES APPEAR THESE WAVES WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT RAIN CHANCES AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON BEST RAIN CHANCES COMING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARDS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS. THE FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME AFTER THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP BRING A TEMPORARY END TO ANY FIRE DANGER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...WILL AFFECT SOME DEEP VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND LARGE STREAMS NEAR DAWN...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 BASED ON THE LATEST (1010 PM) RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE ABOUT OVER AND THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE DRY AIR MOVING IN AND THIS IS ALSO SEEN ON RAP MODEL HOURLY SOUNDING. AS A RESULT I HAVE TAKEN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE A 20 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AS THE DRY AIR SURGES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE RAIN CHCS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRI NIGHT. WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT FROST POTENTIAL FOR THU NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. NO REAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST. SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR W/SW ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LLJ CORE THAT WAS SUPPORTING THEM BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WE DO EXPECT THAT THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS ALL INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING BY 00Z...AND THEN PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL A GOOD BET WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIN CAPE PROFILES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER. FROST IS LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA THU NIGHT WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRI AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LIFTING NE FROM THE DESERT SW. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRI EVENING WHEN THE BEST INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A SUNNY BUT COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO KEEP US PREDOMINATELY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES... BUT AS USUAL THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE SPECIFICS AND THE TIMING. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF HOLDS OFF THE BULK OF THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND INDICATES A VERY WET WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW/OCCLUSION APPROACHES. A DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE GFS INDICATES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF A SHOWER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TILL AROUND 03Z OR SO BUT THE RISK OF A SHOWER STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS TO LOW TO JUSTIFY PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS. SO EXPECT VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT I WILL ADMIT IT IS MARGINAL AS MOST OF OUR COATS BUOYS HAVE ONLY 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES AND WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT MUSKEGON. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 NO BIG ISSUES ON THE RIVERS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RAINS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING DID NOT PRODUCE ANY ISSUES ON THE RIVERS WITH THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WET IN GENERAL COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY HIGHER RIVER LEVELS...A CHANGE FROM RECENT TIMES. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ845>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
914 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST. TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT 900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING E THRU ONTARIO WL DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVNG AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. SINCE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY MOIST...LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL IMPACT ALL THE SITES. THESE CLDS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT CMX GIVEN THE SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT THAT LOCATION. EARLIER ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AT IWD AND DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE NW FLOW AT SAW WL LIMIT THE TIME OF THE MVFR CIGS AT THOSE SITES. AS THE WIND VEERS MORE TO THE N ON THU...MORE MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT SAW IN THE AFTN WITH A GREATER UPSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT IWD THRU THE DAY AND AT CMX IN THE AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245-249-250- 264>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST. TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT 900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING E THRU ONTARIO WL DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVNG AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. SINCE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY MOIST...LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL IMPACT ALL THE SITES. THESE CLDS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT CMX GIVEN THE SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT THAT LOCATION. EARLIER ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AT IWD AND DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE NW FLOW AT SAW WL LIMIT THE TIME OF THE MVFR CIGS AT THOSE SITES. AS THE WIND VEERS MORE TO THE N ON THU...MORE MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT SAW IN THE AFTN WITH A GREATER UPSLOPE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT IWD THRU THE DAY AND AT CMX IN THE AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245-250-251-264>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL FCST AREA. TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12 HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM THE W FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CROSSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCREASED WIND EVENTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT E UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING. PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN OR LESS AT 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE W HALF...WITH 1IN VALUES EXITING FAR E. NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z AND THE DRAGGING COLD FRONT EXITS JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z THURSDAY...PROLONGING THE WNW WINDS A BIT LONGER. 850MB TEMPS OF -1 TO -3C THURSDAY MORNING WITH THESE UPSLOPE/LAKESHORE CONVERGENT WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT E AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE HIGH AS A DEEPENING LOW NEARS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.3IN OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...STILL WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP FALLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MN AT 12Z SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY SHIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING STRATUS WHICH COULD BRING AN HOUR OF MVFR CIGS TO KSAW FROM 18-19Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE LOWER CIGS (POSSIBLY TO LIFR) AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SNEAK INTO KIWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD (16-18Z) AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE WSW DIRECTION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15- 30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ264>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL FCST AREA. TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12 HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR -2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB. AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING STRATUS WHICH COULD BRING AN HOUR OF MVFR CIGS TO KSAW FROM 18-19Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE LOWER CIGS (POSSIBLY TO LIFR) AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SNEAK INTO KIWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD (16-18Z) AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE WSW DIRECTION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15- 30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NRN QUEBEC. TO THE W...A TROF IS OVER THE ROCKIES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME RATHER VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO WED NIGHT. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING S ACROSS UPPER MI ATTM. BRISK N TO NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT IS CONFINED TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR...AND A BKN NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME RADAR RETURNS IS LURKING JUST S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. INITIALLY TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW -SHRA COULD BRUSH THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA. PER LATEST RAP...LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE OF 850MB FLOW APPEAR TO BE AIDING THE MID CLOUD/RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. HRRR RUNS OVERNIGHT HAVE CONSITENTLY INDICATED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOWER LEVELS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD -SHRA FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING BASED ON INCREASING RADAR REFLECTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...A COOL NE FLOW LOCKS IN TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...WITH POST FRONTAL STRATOCU REMAINING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR AND MOVING SSE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU. OTHERWISE...AFTER A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY START...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W AND SW. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND NE WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCNTRL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... ISENTROPICALLY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST BETTER MOIST ASCENT TO THE SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE 2 MAIN AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN WILL SPLIT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PCPN FIELDS FROM THE ALL THE AVBL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON POPS TONIGHT TO SCHC WITH THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CNTRL FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR -2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB. AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING STRATUS WHICH COULD BRING AN HOUR OF MVFR CIGS TO KSAW FROM 18-19Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE LOWER CIGS (POSSIBLY TO LIFR) AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SNEAK INTO KIWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD (16-18Z) AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE WSW DIRECTION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW HRS OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTN/EVENING AND THEN OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE WED EVENING. FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH GIVEN THIS NEW MODEL TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NRN QUEBEC. TO THE W...A TROF IS OVER THE ROCKIES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME RATHER VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO WED NIGHT. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING S ACROSS UPPER MI ATTM. BRISK N TO NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT IS CONFINED TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR...AND A BKN NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME RADAR RETURNS IS LURKING JUST S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. INITIALLY TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW -SHRA COULD BRUSH THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA. PER LATEST RAP...LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE OF 850MB FLOW APPEAR TO BE AIDING THE MID CLOUD/RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. HRRR RUNS OVERNIGHT HAVE CONSITENTLY INDICATED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOWER LEVELS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD -SHRA FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING BASED ON INCREASING RADAR REFLECTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...A COOL NE FLOW LOCKS IN TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...WITH POST FRONTAL STRATOCU REMAINING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR AND MOVING SSE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU. OTHERWISE...AFTER A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY START...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W AND SW. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND NE WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCNTRL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... ISENTROPICALLY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST BETTER MOIST ASCENT TO THE SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE 2 MAIN AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN WILL SPLIT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PCPN FIELDS FROM THE ALL THE AVBL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON POPS TONIGHT TO SCHC WITH THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CNTRL FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR -2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB. AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL TO MVFR VERY NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE LOWER CIGS AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW HRS OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTN/EVENING AND THEN OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE WED EVENING. FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH GIVEN THIS NEW MODEL TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NRN QUEBEC. TO THE W...A TROF IS OVER THE ROCKIES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME RATHER VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO WED NIGHT. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING S ACROSS UPPER MI ATTM. BRISK N TO NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT IS CONFINED TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR...AND A BKN NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME RADAR RETURNS IS LURKING JUST S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. INITIALLY TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW -SHRA COULD BRUSH THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA. PER LATEST RAP...LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE OF 850MB FLOW APPEAR TO BE AIDING THE MID CLOUD/RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. HRRR RUNS OVERNIGHT HAVE CONSITENTLY INDICATED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOWER LEVELS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD -SHRA FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING BASED ON INCREASING RADAR REFLECTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...A COOL NE FLOW LOCKS IN TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...WITH POST FRONTAL STRATOCU REMAINING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR AND MOVING SSE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU. OTHERWISE...AFTER A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY START...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W AND SW. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND NE WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCNTRL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... ISENTROPICALLY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST BETTER MOIST ASCENT TO THE SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE 2 MAIN AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN WILL SPLIT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PCPN FIELDS FROM THE ALL THE AVBL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON POPS TONIGHT TO SCHC WITH THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CNTRL FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR -2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB. AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE N TO NE WIND BEHIND FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE ESE...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT SAW BY LATE EVENING AND CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR AT CMX AND IWD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW HRS OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTN/EVENING AND THEN OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE WED EVENING. FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH GIVEN THIS NEW MODEL TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
647 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015 Weak "cold" front will slowly move south and eastward through tonight before stalling somewhere near the I-70 corridor in Missouri. Front will struggle to make too much southward progress across the area due to amplified mid/upper level ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Threat of precipitation looks meager...but did keep schc PoPs mainly across portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois through the late evening hours in close proximity to aforementioned sfc boundary and where some weak low-level warm/moist advection will be occurring. Also added mention of thunder with activity due to a MUCAPE axis of instability progged by NWP guidance and what occurred last night. Temperatures tonight will also be mild for mid/late October standards. Lows will range from the mid 50s to low 60s with the warmest minimums forecast along and just to the south of expected cold frontal boundary position by 1200 UTC Thursday. Gosselin .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015 (Thursday - Saturday) Cold front will move back northward during the day on Thursday as leeside cyclogenesis commences. This frontal boundary then appears to wash out fairly quickly by Thursday night. Dry weather appears likely on Thursday and most of Thursday night ahead of a cold front moving in from the west. The last of the well above normal temperatures will be on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s across the northern tier of the CWA to near 80 degrees along and south of I- 70. Should not be as warm tomorrow as today due to more anticipated cloud cover and sfc winds from the southeast instead of west/southwest. Still appears what should be the most widespread precipitation event going back many many weeks to occur predominantly on Friday/Friday night. Boosted PoPs roughly ~10% across the CWA on Friday as ingredient for high likelihoods of precipitation are depicted by NWP guidance including UL diffluence...UL jet support...and low-level warm/moist advection ahead of cold front. Highest PoPs/categoricals remain across western sections of the area. Chances of precipitation wane a bit further to the south and mainly east late Friday and Friday night as precipitation outruns its support aloft and therefore would expect a bit less coverage and QPF. Cooler weather...though still near seasonal norms for late October...appear likely on Saturday. Best chances of showers will be across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois near slowly progressing cold front...RER of UL jet streak...and weak DCPVA ahead of southern Plains secondary vort maxima. (Sunday - Wednesday) Quasi-zonal flow aloft will end this weekend and take us into the next work week. Result should be near normal temperatures with chances of rain increasing in the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame as the next trough digs out of the Rockies. Gosselin && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015 No major changes to going TAF trends. Latest synoptic guidance (including the last several RAP runs) is still indicating that the frontal boundary will ooze south across northern sections of the FA overnight, stall out around the I-70 corridor by daybreak, and then begin to retreat northward by late in the forecast period. RAP and GFS forecast soundings are also suggesting saturation in the 800-850mb layer as the front works south, which should yield low end VFR cigs at most locations later tonight and into Thursday morning. Consensus of guidance also suggests current shower activity nw MO/se NE/ne KS will attempt to spread east with time, so have maintained mention of VCSH at KUIN during the predawn hours. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are forecast throughout the period, with high level cirrus this evening giving way to VFR cigs 5-6kft late tonight and into Thursday morning. Light south- southwest winds this evening will becoming light and variable late tonight and into Thursday morning as frontal boundary works into and then stalls over the Metro area. Truett && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 64 80 61 73 / 10 10 5 60 Quincy 55 73 56 70 / 20 10 10 70 Columbia 58 79 59 69 / 10 10 20 80 Jefferson City 60 80 59 69 / 10 10 20 90 Salem 58 79 56 76 / 5 10 5 30 Farmington 57 78 55 71 / 5 5 5 60 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
903 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... BAND OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO RED LODGE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND DECREASING. HRRR TREND ADVERTISING A CONTINUING OF THE DISSIPATION TREND...BUT AT A MUCH MORE ACCELERATED PACE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND PUSHED POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. DRYING TREND FOR TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMATION. TWH && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED... THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA ON MONDAY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED LEAVING GENERALLY A LARGE AREA OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PORTION OF THE LOW DID MOVE NORTH INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA LAST EVENING PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATED NORTH AND WEST AROUND THIS LOW BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS LAST EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-HARDIN- FORSYTH LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS PRECIP FAIRLY GOOD SINCE LAST EVENING AND DOES PROG THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-HARDIN LINE FOR THIS MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY GOOD WITH THE PRECIP AND HAS IT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND BECOMMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHIFTING THE POPS SOUTH AND EAST AND LOWERING THEM TO MORE OF A HIGH CHANCE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AREAS OF CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN DUIRNG THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL OPEN AND LIFT UP THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO OUR FAR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST A SIMILAR TRACK SO WITH IMPROVED CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. PWAT PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PER TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECTING PCPN AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH BUT WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER IF ASCENT LASTS LONG ENOUGH...BUT THIS WAVE WILL BE COMPETING WITH DRIER WEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SPEAKING OF WHICH...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE HOW MUCH PHASING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE PACIFIC WAVE AND SOUTHWESTERN TROF...SO STRESS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO PCPN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. AFTER A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL AND IN THE 50S FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SCENARIO WHICH WOULD KEEP NW FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. THOUGH THEY ARE SIMILAR IN A GENERAL SENSE THE MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND/OR OVERRUNNING PACIFIC MOISTURE. AFTER WHAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A DRY SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SOME LIGHT PCPN SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS IS FOR BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DRY MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE NW FLOW IS CONFLUENT AND SUPPORTS SFC RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...AM EXPECTING COOLER NORTH TO EAST WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS BY SUNDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S...BUT WITH ENOUGH PUSH OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WE MIGHT BE COOLER THAN THAT. IT IS LATE OCTOBER AFTER ALL. STILL LOOKING FOR THE FIRST FREEZE AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT AND IT COULD HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST FIRST FREEZE ON RECORD OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 27TH. JKL && .AVIATION... A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMLS-K4BQ THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED IN RAIN/SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON...AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FORMING OVERNIGHT PRODUCING LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KBIL. JKL/TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060 039/062 042/066 041/058 035/057 033/052 033/058 6/W 10/U 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 21/B LVM 054 034/065 038/065 033/056 030/057 030/054 030/061 4/W 10/U 01/U 22/W 21/B 12/W 21/B HDN 064 035/065 037/068 038/060 032/060 031/055 030/061 8/W 10/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 21/B MLS 063 036/063 037/068 041/058 036/058 033/054 032/059 5/W 10/U 01/U 51/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 4BQ 063 034/062 040/067 040/058 034/058 031/053 031/059 4/W 10/U 02/W 51/N 11/B 11/B 21/B BHK 061 033/061 035/065 041/056 033/056 030/052 029/055 3/W 10/U 01/B 64/W 11/B 11/B 11/B SHR 060 037/063 039/066 039/057 033/057 030/054 030/059 4/W 20/U 01/B 32/W 21/B 12/W 21/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1124 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NOT MUCH IS GOING ON EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY. STARTING TO SEE SOME CELLS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOTICEABLE ON MOST OF THE TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL SEE HOW THESE MATERIALIZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE UPDATES BETWEEN NOW AND THE FINAL AFTERNOON FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS UPDATE... 939 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, QPF, SKY COVER, AND TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL LIMIT WARMING, SO LOWERED EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CLARK COUNTY THAT WE MAY REALIZE OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF MIDDLE 70S FOR LAS VEGAS, BUT CURRENT BAND OF CLOUDS DRAPED OVER THE VALLEY WILL SLOW THAT PROCESS. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, AS SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS (PERHAPS A STORM) MAY GET IN HERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .PREVIOUS UPDATE... 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, WEATHER, SKY COVER, AND QPF, MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY, NEAR WIKIEUP. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS 20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ UPDATES...PADDOCK PREV DISCUSSION...WOLCOTT FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
939 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE... ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, QPF, SKY COVER, AND TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL LIMIT WARMING, SO LOWERED EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CLARK COUNTY THAT WE MAY REALIZE OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF MIDDLE 70S FOR LAS VEGAS, BUT CURRENT BAND OF CLOUDS DRAPED OVER THE VALLEY WILL SLOW THAT PROCESS. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, AS SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS (PERHAPS A STORM) MAY GET IN HERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .PREVIOUS UPDATE... 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, WEATHER, SKY COVER, AND QPF, MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY, NEAR WIKIEUP. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS 20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ UPDATES...PADDOCK PREV DISCUSSION...WOLCOTT FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, WEATHER, SKY COVER, AND QPF, MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY, NEAR WIKIEUP. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS 20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ UPDATE...PADDOCK PREV DISCUSSION...WOLCOTT FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS 20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ WOLCOTT FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
942 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT 930 PM...A WARM FRONT IS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. IT IS PRETTY MUCH DRY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...BUT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH A LLJ FORMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THIS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THESE SHOWERS LIKELY TO AN HOUR OR TWO OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS JET WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS. THE JET WILL ALSO BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES UPSTREAM SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE ITS ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... BY THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM UNDERNEATH IT. INITIALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE FAIRLY THIN. MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOWARD MORNING...SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT TRANSPIRATION IS LOWER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS PAST RECENT POST FRONTAL CLEAR SKY EVENTS HAVE SHOWN...WIDESPREAD FOG IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS COMMONPLACE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PERFECT FALL DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR NEAR 50...BUT THIS IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE WICKED DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR .2 INCH...NEAR DAILY MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS TYPE OF ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...EXPECT JUST CLEAR SKIES...NO CIRRUS...NO STRATOCU...NOTHING BUT BLUE SKY. THIS WILL NOT LAST HOWEVER...AS AN INCREASINGLY STRONG JET BEGINS TO FORM OVER TX AND STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL THEREFORE FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT OF INTEREST WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CURRENT CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEING PICKED UP BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET AND THE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MEASURABLE RAIN...STARTING LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN NY...AND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN NY...AND BRIEFLY LAGGING INTO PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE EXPECT A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THEN A SOAKING RAIN IS STARTING TO LOOK PROBABLE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM BOTH SIDES OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME TROPICAL REMNANTS THROWN IN. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY NOTE THAT RAIN IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES BUT CIGS IN THE 6-10K RANGE. A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR/IFR. SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR. MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON MOST OF THE WATERS. FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE HEADLINES WERE ADDED TO THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AS OUTLINED BELOW. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020- 040-041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/WCH NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH SHORT TERM...ZAFF LONG TERM...ZAFF AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
747 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT 730 PM...SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE ALREADY LIFTED TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES EXPECTED THROUGH 11 PM. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH A LOW LEVEL JET FORMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EARLY THIS EVENING...SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET HAVE REACHED SE MICHIGAN...AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THIS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THIS LIKELY TO BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE UPDATE JUST TIGHTENING UP THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THIS JET WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS. THE JET WILL ALSO BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE ITS ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... BY THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM UNDERNEATH IT. INITIALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE FAIRLY THIN. MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOWARD MORNING...SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT TRANSPIRATION IS LOWER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS PAST RECENT POST FRONTAL CLEAR SKY EVENTS HAVE SHOWN...WIDESPREAD FOG IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS COMMONPLACE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PERFECT FALL DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR NEAR 50...BUT THIS IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE WICKED DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR .2 INCH...NEAR DAILY MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS TYPE OF ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...EXPECT JUST CLEAR SKIES...NO CIRRUS...NO STRATOCU...NOTHING BUT BLUE SKY. THIS WILL NOT LAST HOWEVER...AS AN INCREASINGLY STRONG JET BEGINS TO FORM OVER TX AND STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL THEREFORE FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT OF INTEREST WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CURRENT CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEING PICKED UP BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET AND THE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MEASURABLE RAIN...STARTING LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN NY...AND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN NY...AND BRIEFLY LAGGING INTO PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE EXPECT A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THEN A SOAKING RAIN IS STARTING TO LOOK PROBABLE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM BOTH SIDES OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME TROPICAL REMNANTS THROWN IN. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY NOTE THAT RAIN IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES BUT CIGS IN THE 6-10K RANGE. A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR/IFR. SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR. MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON MOST OF THE WATERS. FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE HEADLINES WERE ADDED TO THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AS OUTLINED BELOW. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020- 040-041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WCH NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH SHORT TERM...ZAFF LONG TERM...ZAFF AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
744 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY... QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76- 80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND DIVERTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORT NORTH OF THE AREA AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS SUCH...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THAT COULD SUPPORT BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY: MEAN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE. ANY MORNING STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GIVEN PROMINENT MID-LEVEL INVERSION PER LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MODULATE DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT THE VERY LEAST RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE GULF REMAINS BLOCKED...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE BETTER WITH PWATS INCREASING TO ~1.5" WITH MODELS ALSO INDICATING WEAK DPVA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING TO 1380-1385M AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S EAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE IN THE 50S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG +1030MB SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT...UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE..MAINLY EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI. MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TWO SITES...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OUT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL OUT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. . -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLIP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...CLEAR AND COLD REMAINS THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OVERALL HIGHER THAN AT THIS POINT LAST NIGHT BUT WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF COOLING TO GO. MAY RE-EVALUATE FROST ADVISORY AS NIGHT GOES ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING EXTENDING FROM NORFOLK VA TO AUGUSTA GA. THIS HIGH SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BROAD AREA OF WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT CALM WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT ALL SITES. OUR LOCAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOL SHOWS THE "POCOSIN" COLD SPOTS SHOULD RUN A GOOD 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN NEARBY AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 POSSIBLE IN THE GREEN SWAMP...BLADEN LAKES STATE FOREST...AND THE ANGOLA BAY GAMELAND ON THE PENDER-DUPLIN COUNTY LINE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION. A SUBTLE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS ACTUALLY TRAVERSING THE CAROLINAS NOW BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. AS THE 850 MB HIGH SCOOTS OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WINDS AT THAT LEVEL SHOULD TURN EASTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...BUT THIS PROCESS APPEARS IT WILL PROCEED QUITE SLOWLY AND I HAVE DELAYED ANY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FROST ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MANY SITES SINCE SUNSET. WHILE THIS IS A PAPER-THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LIKELY ONLY EXTENDING ONE OR TWO HUNDRED FEET VERTICALLY...IT MAY HAVE THE INTERESTING EFFECT OF CREATING DEW ON ELEVATED OBJECTS LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL THEN FREEZE LATE TONIGHT AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL TO 33-36. YOU MIGHT WANT TO PLAN ON SPENDING A FEW EXTRA MINUTES TO SCRAPE THROUGH THIS LAYER OF ICE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD IN THE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE CHILLY AIRMASS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING TUE. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT WITH THE AXIS N OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHER TEMPS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WHICH WILL INCREASE DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY LINGER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE FOR NOW...BUT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY AND LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE COAST TUE AND THROUGHOUT ON WED. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT THE COAST TUE AND THEN THROUGHOUT ON WED. HIGHS TUE WILL BE NEAR 70...MID 70S ON WED. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE BRIEF EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA PUSHES A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH BACK TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY. THE REGION WILL SEE A RATHER QUICK REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE GULF RIDGE GETS WORKED OVER SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE NOW OPEN WAVE...PREVIOUS SOUTHWEST SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY. THE ATTENDANT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTING AT A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAYBE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN INTACT WITH WARM READINGS THURSDAY FALLING BACK BRIEFLY SATURDAY THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RECOVERY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH DECOUPLING EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH CALM OR NEAR CALM WINDS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FOG...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN LOW SPOTS. A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME CU/STRATA CU AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WED/THU THAT A WEAK TROUGH WILL SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS: 1031 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH MOST ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH WINDS IN THE 12-16 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. THE 21Z RUC WAS NOT USED SINCE ITS OVERNIGHT WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. BUOY REPORTS AT 6 PM SHOWED SEAS HAVE DECAYED AWAY TO 2-4 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES OF SHORE...WITH ANY 4-FOOT SEAS LIKELY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS AND CAPE ROMAIN. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS AROUND 6 SECONDS PERIOD. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING TUE AND THEN RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS TUE VEERING TO A MORE ENE TO E DIRECTION TUE NIGHT WITH A SIMILAR DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELDS THURSDAY AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS FROM THE NORTH DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10- 15 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN EMBEDDED SURGE. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FEET WITH A FEW FIVE FOOTERS DEVELOPING WITH THE SURGE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053. NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105-109. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/JDW SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...REK/DL MARINE...99/REK/RJD/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AS OF 2330 UTC...THE OCCLUDING FRONT WAS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND STRATUS IN TRAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE HRRR THROUGH ITS 22 UTC ITERATION && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES. TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT...DECENT SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS...AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD SUPPORT GUST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND LIGHT WINDS WEST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AFTER LOWS TONIGHT OF 35 NORTHWEST TO 45 SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A COLORADO LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. THE 12 UTC GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL HAVE THE CENTER TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER BY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE OFF TO THE EAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY AND 20S/30S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN STRATUS BEHIND AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AREA WIDE BEHIND THE FRONT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NO MAJOR CHANCES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. CONTINUED USING A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF HRRR ITERATIONS...MOST CURRENTLY THROUGH ITS 04 UTC RUN...FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH ITS 01 UTC RUN. THE BOWMAN ARB RADAR THROUGH 0220 UTC IS SHOWING THE FIRST FEW RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE NOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS LIGHT RAIN REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AS OF 23 UTC THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...TRANSITIONING INTO A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS ENERGY WITHIN AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL BREAK DOWN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND 02-04 UTC AND LIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES BY AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER FAR SOUTHWEST. TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS SHOWER CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH COINCIDE...WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS DRY. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NORTH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S IN THE JAMES VALLEY. COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARMER ON THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE ALSO MOVING NORTH...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A GOOD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAIN SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. AS OF NOW THE WEEKEND LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THE MODELS HINT AT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER KDIK/KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KISN/KMOT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL STAY DRY IN MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A T IN ANY AREA GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT /10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM 220-260. FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL STAY DRY IN MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A T IN ANY AREA GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT /10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 10KFT WITH SCT CI OVER THE SRN 2/3 WITH BASES 15-25KFT AGL. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRES MOVG THRU SERN CANADA WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE ESP NRN SITES...WITH LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM 220-260. FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FROST THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30 TO MID 40S CURRENTLY AT 2 AM. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE... THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE THIS WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 44 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 42 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 41 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 37 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MA/GC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF A FRONT THAT STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE TREND IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO CONTINUE TO BRING THE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST AND JOINING UP WITH THE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER ILLINOIS. THE 20.17Z RUN OF THE HRRR INDICATES THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS COULD GET BRUSHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL CARRY SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO MOVE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AND STARTS TO EJECT TOWARD THE AREA. THE 20.12Z GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO START BRINGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA AND WOULD INDICATE THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 20.12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS AND HOLDS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BACK INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE A BIAS OF BEING TOO QUICK TO EJECT OUT SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TRENDS AND WILL START TO BRING THE RAIN CHANCES IN FRIDAY. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PAST THE AREA JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS TRACK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CONCERN WITH THIS IS WHETHER THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA TO GET AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS OR IF THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF BRANCHES WITH ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER INTO THE AREA LIKE THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AS THIS MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS WELL. SOME LINGERING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO HAVING A SLIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO IT. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW AND COULD START TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE CERTAINLY DO NOT LOOK LIKE BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS AT THIS POINT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW TO MIX IN LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE IMPACT TO THE TAFS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AT 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THIS LOW FROM FARIBAULT MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY WISCONSIN. NORTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT... TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 10.20Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20.21Z AND 21.03Z. THE ARW...NMM...AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT EVEN HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. COMPARING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO THE GRIDDED MODEL VALUES... THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GRIDDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING TOO COLD. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW US TO MIX UP TO 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND BEING VERY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN DURING THE PAST MONTH...EXPECT THE THERE WILL BE A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 900 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR TODAY. MOST PLACES HAVE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH OCCURRED IN 1953...2000...OR 2003. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...NOT SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...SO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO 20 PERCENT. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON /THIS IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND THEN QUICKLY DECLINES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY MISS OUR AREA. EVEN IF WE DID SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES BECAUSE IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND THAT IT HAS BEEN DRY SO LONG. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE IMPACT TO THE TAFS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AT 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THIS LOW FROM FARIBAULT MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY WISCONSIN. NORTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT... TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 10.20Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20.21Z AND 21.03Z. THE ARW...NMM...AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT EVEN HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. COMPARING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO THE GRIDDED MODEL VALUES... THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GRIDDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING TOO COLD. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW US TO MIX UP TO 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND BEING VERY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN DURING THE PAST MONTH...EXPECT THE THERE WILL BE A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 900 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR TODAY. MOST PLACES HAVE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH OCCURRED IN 1953...2000...OR 2003. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...NOT SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...SO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO 20 PERCENT. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON /THIS IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND THEN QUICKLY DECLINES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY MISS OUR AREA. EVEN IF WE DID SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES BECAUSE IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND THAT IT HAS BEEN DRY SO LONG. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN WI CONTINUES TO SPARK A FEW -SHRA FROM CENTRAL WI EASTWARD. WEAK INSTABILITY/WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WERE HELPING THAT PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY TRIGGER THE -SHRA. MOST MESO MODELS CONTINUE SOME -SHRA THROUGH THE DAY TO THE EAST. TO THE SOUTH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRIGGERING -SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MESO MODELS TRACK THIS ACROSS EASTERN IA AND OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING...SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
327 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AT 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THIS LOW FROM FARIBAULT MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY WISCONSIN. NORTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT... TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 10.20Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20.21Z AND 21.03Z. THE ARW...NMM...AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT EVEN HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. COMPARING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO THE GRIDDED MODEL VALUES... THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GRIDDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING TOO COLD. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW US TO MIX UP TO 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND BEING VERY DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN DURING THE PAST MONTH...EXPECT THE THERE WILL BE A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 900 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR TODAY. MOST PLACES HAVE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH OCCURRED IN 1953...2000...OR 2003. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...NOT SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...SO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO 20 PERCENT. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON /THIS IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND THEN QUICKLY DECLINES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY MISS OUR AREA. EVEN IF WE DID SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES BECAUSE IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND THAT IT HAS BEEN DRY SO LONG. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKER HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BAND OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 11-13KFT RANGE FOR A TIME AT BOTH SITES THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HOLD JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWARD EXTENT AS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR THOSE SHOWERS TO WORK A BIT FARTHER NORTH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SPANISH PEAKS. LIKELY SEEING SOME HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE CULEBRA RANGE AND SPANISH PEAKS...BUT HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT SO CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK ON TARGET. STILL LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A LULL THU MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CO. LATEST NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN ITS POOR PERFORMANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE SOLUTION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS. HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY... ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW-- .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY... TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. AS SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD EXPECT CIGS TO DROP FOR KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS...WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VIS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. MTNS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN WIDESPREAD -RA/SN. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...PGW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
429 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM... 311 AM CDT THROUGH SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. JEE && .LONG TERM... 311 AM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * NONE. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT AND WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KT AS THE BECOME EASTERLY THURSDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * HIGH. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SELY WIND BECOMING SWLY. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY. OTRW...VFR. SWLY WINDS BECMG NWLY. SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. LGT/VRBL WIND BECMG ELY. MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL. ELY WIND. TUESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. ELY WIND. KREIN && .MARINE... 244 AM CDT A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM... 311 AM CDT THROUGH SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. JEE && .LONG TERM... 311 AM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * NONE. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT AND WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KT AS THE BECOME EASTERLY THURSDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SELY WIND BECOMING SWLY. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY. OTRW...VFR. SWLY WINDS BECMG NWLY. SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. LGT/VRBL WIND BECMG ELY. MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL. ELY WIND. TUESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. ELY WIND. KREIN && .MARINE... 244 AM CDT A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1147 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A cold front is beginning to push into the northwest portion the forecast area with little fanfare, and do not expect this to change much for the rest of the night. The wave driving the front into the area is quickly pushing off into the eastern Great Lakes/Canada, taking most of the forcing with it. There is a weak wave tracking northeast into the Midwest from the Plains and this disturbance has some mid=level returns (likely only sprinkles or virga) spreading into western Missouri and Iowa. This disturbance is likely to impact only the northern portion of the forecast area later tonight, so have limited slight chance PoPs to this area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, going forecast looks good and only slight tweaks have been made. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA. 19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid- level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with timing and location of this front through the end of the week and have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole area. The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week, another weather system will move into the area with another chance of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible. Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. An upper-level disturbance will pass near the area tonight, and an isolated sprinkle can`t be ruled out. However, the risk of measurable rainfall is too low to mention, and mid-level CIGS/virga are the mostly likely impact of this disturbance. Generally light winds are anticipated through the period with a decaying frontal boundary in the vicinity. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER TO RE-INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN EARLY THU MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS RESULTED IN SOME DECENT BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS NOW GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER MORE TIMELY HRRR AND RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST CURRENT ELEVATED NE/KS PRECIP WILL OOZE INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH BASED. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL PACKAGES...THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE APPEARS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH. TRADITIONALLY...INSTABILITY LESSENS ONCE THE LAYER BECOMES SATURATED IN COOLER DRIER AIR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDER...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO MENTION. OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME WITH A PARTIALLY SPLIT FORCING REGIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE H850 JET AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. NONE THE LESS A PERIOD OF HIGH POP WILL STILL BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY DESPITE THE REALIZATION THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE ON TARGET WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A DECENT COOL OFF FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKS PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS MAY PHASE INTO ONE LARGER STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEEPEN A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONCURRENTLY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL GULF COAST SYSTEM EDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME FROM TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE H500 FIELDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE EURO HAS ALLOWED THE ENERGY OF THE LEADING WAVE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE NET RESULT IS EITHER A MORE NORTHERLY STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS OR A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE PLAINS IF THE EURO MODEL VERIFIES. THOUGH WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG FALL SYSTEM NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. DETAILS OF DAILY WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE BETTER PARSED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY. IF THE EURO WERE TO VERIFY...DAY TIME HIGHS BY THURSDAY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF COLD RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...22/06Z ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST TO AFFECT ANY AIRPORT LOCATIONS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST. TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT 900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING E THRU ONTARIO WL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HI WL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW LATER THIS MRNG AS ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTER LLVL AIR FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS. THESE LO CLDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVNG AT SAW WITH AN UPSLOPE NNE WIND ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245- 249-250-264>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1252 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 BASED ON THE LATEST (1010 PM) RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE ABOUT OVER AND THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE DRY AIR MOVING IN AND THIS IS ALSO SEEN ON RAP MODEL HOURLY SOUNDING. AS A RESULT I HAVE TAKEN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE A 20 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AS THE DRY AIR SURGES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE RAIN CHCS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRI NIGHT. WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT FROST POTENTIAL FOR THU NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. NO REAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST. SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR W/SW ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LLJ CORE THAT WAS SUPPORTING THEM BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WE DO EXPECT THAT THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS ALL INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING BY 00Z...AND THEN PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL A GOOD BET WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIN CAPE PROFILES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER. FROST IS LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE CWFA THU NIGHT WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRI AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LIFTING NE FROM THE DESERT SW. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRI EVENING WHEN THE BEST INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A SUNNY BUT COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO KEEP US PREDOMINATELY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES... BUT AS USUAL THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE SPECIFICS AND THE TIMING. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF HOLDS OFF THE BULK OF THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND INDICATES A VERY WET WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW/OCCLUSION APPROACHES. A DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE GFS INDICATES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 A FAVORABLE FLYING DAY AHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BE FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT I WILL ADMIT IT IS MARGINAL AS MOST OF OUR COATS BUOYS HAVE ONLY 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES AND WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT MUSKEGON. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 NO BIG ISSUES ON THE RIVERS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RAINS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING DID NOT PRODUCE ANY ISSUES ON THE RIVERS WITH THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WET IN GENERAL COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY HIGHER RIVER LEVELS...A CHANGE FROM RECENT TIMES. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ845>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
350 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET TODAY BUT BECOME ACTIVE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING SLIDES EWD QUICKLY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...ONLY INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL SURGE NWD ALONG A E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT. STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN ELEVATED AREA OF F-GEN AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH AND 850-500MB CAPE VALUES AROUND 50-100 J/KG MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE AROUND A HALF TO INCH OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW VERY WEAK ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER NW WI. THE PRESENCE OF OVERCAST SKIES AND THE COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE WEST WILL ALSO INDUCE A STIFF E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND THE COOL MOIST LAKE AIR MASS BLOWING IN FROM THE EAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THOUGH. WE CONTINUE HIGH POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH THEM SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WE HAVE ALL RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME WET SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP RATES/TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/UPPER TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT THEY AFFECT BOTH TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HANDLE THIS LOW DIFFERENTLY. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE LOW POPS MONDAY AND INCREASE THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECTING RADIATION FOG TO BE A CONCERN AT KHYR AND KHIB TONIGHT. LAST FEW RAP RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. KHYR BRIEFLY DROPPED TO MVFR VISBY AND HAVE SINCE GONE BACK UP TO VFR. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THINK THAT IFR VISBY OR WORSE IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KHYR. KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...PER THE LATEST NAM/RAP/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. AFTER 13Z EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 55 37 47 44 / 0 10 90 80 INL 51 34 48 39 / 0 10 90 80 BRD 61 40 50 43 / 0 30 90 80 HYR 58 37 51 47 / 0 10 80 90 ASX 55 33 52 46 / 0 10 80 90 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TENTINGER LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER WITH FASTER CLEARING TREND. HAVE ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS TO THE EAST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS. LATE THURSDAY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A SUNNY DAY FOR MOST EXCEPT IN FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LONG THE BOUNDARY WATERS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM HIBBING NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...GENERALLY OVER MUCH OF SUPERIOR NATIONAL FOREST. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...AND WEST WINDS SUBSIDING TO 5 MPH OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. THURSDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 60 NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STORMS SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH IN COMMON TO RAMP UP THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEING LATE OCTOBER HAVE TAKEN A CAREFUL LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT OUT...BUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO FALL OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY. IT GETS PRETTY CHILLY ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT EITHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP REVISITING THIS POTENTIAL AS WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO THRESHOLDS. EITHER WAY THIS IS GOING TO BE A RATHER COLD RAIN AND AM GLAD I WILL BE INDOORS THROUGH THIS EVENT. BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE SOME COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE WITH A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER...FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA ABOUT MID WEEK SO HAVE PUT IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT TO LOWER POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECTING RADIATION FOG TO BE A CONCERN AT KHYR AND KHIB TONIGHT. LAST FEW RAP RUNS HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. KHYR BRIEFLY DROPPED TO MVFR VISBY AND HAVE SINCE GONE BACK UP TO VFR. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THINK THAT IFR VISBY OR WORSE IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KHYR. KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...PER THE LATEST NAM/RAP/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. AFTER 13Z EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 38 47 43 49 / 0 90 90 30 INL 32 48 38 47 / 0 90 80 20 BRD 42 50 43 50 / 60 100 90 10 HYR 36 51 46 51 / 0 90 80 40 ASX 31 52 44 53 / 0 80 80 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GRANING SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015 Weak cold front has made it down to near COU and just south of PPQ early this morning. Southward moving cold front should only make it into central MO and southern IL, near STL today as the surface ridge over the northern Plains moves eastward into the Great Lakes region, and then becomes nearly stationary this afternoon. Will get high level cloudiness today ahead of the upper level trough centered over the southern Rockies. The models were also depicting significant low level moisture around 850 mb, so am expecting quite a bit of diurnal cumulus clouds. Could not rule out an isolated shower along the weak front this afternoon, but it appears that the precipitation will remain west of the forecast area today. High temperatures will be a little cooler across northeast MO and west central IL compared to yesterday north of the cold front. GKS .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015 The stationary front will lift back northward as a warm front as the upper level trough approaches our area tonight. Showers should spread eastward into the western portion of the forecast area late tonight, west of the Mississippi River as a southerly low level jet brings increasing low level temperature and moisture advection into this area. The upper level divergence will also be increasing over our area ahead of the upper level trough. The precipitation will shift eastward through the entire forecast area Friday and Friday evening as the south-southwesterly low level jet translates eastward through the region and as the upper level trough weakens as it moves northeastward through the northern Plains. A cold front will move southeastward through our forecast area late Friday night and Saturday, and the threat for showers and a few storms will continue until after the passage of the cold front. The best chance of significant rainfall will occur across southeast MO and southwest IL, from STL south and east on Saturday. Most of the rain should shift southeast of our forecast area by Saturday night as the northern stream upper level trough flattens and a surface ridge moves into the area behind the cold front. Cooler temperatures can be expected Saturday night, albeit close to normal values for late October. A dry, tranquil period of weather can be expected for the later portion of the weekend into the next work week with weak upper level ridging over the region. The chance of rain will return already by Monday night and continue through the remainder of the extended forecast as a deepening upper level trough and associated cold front move through the region. The GFS model also is depicting a southern, more tropical low moving up from the Gulf region and through southeast MO and southern IL ahead of the northern stream upper level trough and cold front. GKS && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015 Cold front is now being picked up on regional radar imagery, and is about 1 hour slower than earlier expected. Still think we should see some lower end VFR cigs (5-6kft) developing near and north of the boundary during the predawn hours, with this cloudiness then gradually eroding during the morning. Last couple of runs of the HRRR still suggest a minimal shower threat in ne MO during the predawn hours, so have maintained a mention of VCSH at KUIN. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front should ooze into area shortly before daybreak, become stationary, and then begin to lift back north tomorrow afternoon/evening. Still expecting some lower VFR clouds (5-6kft) to develop along the boundary during the predawn hours, with this cloudiness then eroding around midday. Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015 Weak "cold" front will slowly move south and eastward through tonight before stalling somewhere near the I-70 corridor in Missouri. Front will struggle to make too much southward progress across the area due to amplified mid/upper level ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Threat of precipitation looks meager...but did keep schc PoPs mainly across portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois through the late evening hours in close proximity to aforementioned sfc boundary and where some weak low-level warm/moist advection will be occurring. Also added mention of thunder with activity due to a MUCAPE axis of instability progged by NWP guidance and what occurred last night. Temperatures tonight will also be mild for mid/late October standards. Lows will range from the mid 50s to low 60s with the warmest minimums forecast along and just to the south of expected cold frontal boundary position by 1200 UTC Thursday. Gosselin .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015 (Thursday - Saturday) Cold front will move back northward during the day on Thursday as leeside cyclogenesis commences. This frontal boundary then appears to wash out fairly quickly by Thursday night. Dry weather appears likely on Thursday and most of Thursday night ahead of a cold front moving in from the west. The last of the well above normal temperatures will be on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s across the northern tier of the CWA to near 80 degrees along and south of I- 70. Should not be as warm tomorrow as today due to more anticipated cloud cover and sfc winds from the southeast instead of west/southwest. Still appears what should be the most widespread precipitation event going back many many weeks to occur predominantly on Friday/Friday night. Boosted PoPs roughly ~10% across the CWA on Friday as ingredient for high likelihoods of precipitation are depicted by NWP guidance including UL diffluence...UL jet support...and low-level warm/moist advection ahead of cold front. Highest PoPs/categoricals remain across western sections of the area. Chances of precipitation wane a bit further to the south and mainly east late Friday and Friday night as precipitation outruns its support aloft and therefore would expect a bit less coverage and QPF. Cooler weather...though still near seasonal norms for late October...appear likely on Saturday. Best chances of showers will be across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois near slowly progressing cold front...RER of UL jet streak...and weak DCPVA ahead of southern Plains secondary vort maxima. (Sunday - Wednesday) Quasi-zonal flow aloft will end this weekend and take us into the next work week. Result should be near normal temperatures with chances of rain increasing in the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame as the next trough digs out of the Rockies. Gosselin && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015 Cold front is now being picked up on regional radar imagery, and is about 1 hour slower than earlier expected. Still think we should see some lower end VFR cigs (5-6kft) developing near and north of the boundary during the predawn hours, with this cloudiness then gradually eroding during the morning. Last couple of runs of the HRRR still suggest a minimal shower threat in ne MO during the predawn hours, so have maintained a mention of VCSH at KUIN. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front should ooze into area shortly before daybreak, become stationary, and then begin to lift back north tomorrow afternoon/evening. Still expecting some lower VFR clouds (5-6kft) to develop along the boundary during the predawn hours, with this cloudiness then eroding around midday. Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...CORRECTION FOR TYPO... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES WITH THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE. ALL MODELS LIFT THE RAIN SHEILD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL LOOKS VERY GOOD AS MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND THE FORCING IS STRONG. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH THE LEAD WAVE OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB TODAY BUT K INDICES ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED. TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE RAIN WOULD REACH IMPERIAL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...NORTH PLATTE 15Z AND VALENTINE 18Z. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE RAP AND ECM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE FCST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME THE SFC LOW WOULD BE OVER NCNTL NEB AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. A CHECK ON THE NAM FOG PRODUCT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG BUT THAT IS THE FASTER SOLN SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. JUST 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. THE 22.00Z GFSAPPEARS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER. THE NAM IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ALSO SUGGESTING A DRY SLOT...BUT YET MAINTAININGPRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEFORECAST WAS TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF AND LESSER DEGREE THE NAM INMIND. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THEFORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND POSSIBLYNORTHWESTERN /WRAP AROUND/ ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. PROXIMITYSOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY REVEAL LIMITEDINSTABILITY...BUT SUPPOSE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WOULD BEPOSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A PREVAILING SHOWERS MENTION AS IT/SREALLY ONLY THE 00Z NAM SUPPORTING THE WEAK INSTABILITY. TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THISWEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 50S BY MID-WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 THERE IS SOME VARIATION AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH ONE INDICATING THAT THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS 08Z AND OTHERS BRINGING IT IN AS LATE AS 18Z. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATED LOW LEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ASSOCIATED CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE ONSET OF PRCIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE AS EARLY AS 08Z BUT...TAKING THE VARIATION INTO CONSIDERATION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH BBW- LBF-OGA BY 15Z AND ONL-TIF-MHN BY 18Z. THE ONSET FOR ANW-VTN-IEN WILL PROBABLY BE 18-21Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, THEN BECOME MORE SEASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS THE LEADING SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SPRINKLES TO BEGIN TO TURN INTO RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY, ONCE THE SHOWERS CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS QUICKLY SO I ANTICIPATE THE FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR WILL CEASE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS WELL COVERED WITH ITS RADAR ASSIMILATION SO I CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE HRRR CONCERNING TIMING OF THE PROGRESSIVE MOVING FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 735PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER DRY, HENCE SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AT AUTOMATED STATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE FURTHER AND BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z, A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING QPF TO LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH. FELT LIKELY POPS WERE IN ORDER BASED ON LATEST WRF/RAP TRENDS SO BUMPED UP A BIT TO MATCH MY THINKING. FORECAST LOWS BASICALLY OCCURRING NOW, AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN WARM SECTOR, OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY TO 10-12C, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, EVEN IN THE FACE OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN CLEAR EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...SOME MIXING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS NW FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY`S HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...PER RELATIVELY CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SOLNS. MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THRU THE CAROLINAS INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALSO MODEST. AS A RESULT...PCPN AMTS GENERALLY EXPECTED AOB 0.25". THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN. FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD HAVE RICHER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC....WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER QPF AMTS OF 0.50-1.00" WED INTO WED NGT. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN. STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTS >25MPH FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE ARRIVAL OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NEAR THE MOS CONSENSUS AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 08-14Z BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AREAWIDE. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT LATER THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS BEFORE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE AT SLK/MSS. CARRIED LLWS GROUP IN SLK AND MSS TAFS THROUGH 13Z AND 14Z, RESPECTIVELY. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN SOME GUSTINESS TO 25KTS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY/VFR 06Z FRI THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY LESSENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, THEN BECOME MORE SEASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS THE LEADING SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SPRINKLES TO BEGIN TO TURN INTO RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY, ONCE THE SHOWERS CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS QUICKLY SO I ANTICIPATE THE FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR WILL CEASE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS WELL COVERED WITH ITS RADAR ASSIMILATION SO I CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE HRRR CONCERNING TIMING OF THE PROGRESSIVE MOVING FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 735PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER DRY, HENCE SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AT AUTOMATED STATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE FURTHER AND BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z, A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING QPF TO LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH. FELT LIKELY POPS WERE IN ORDER BASED ON LATEST WRF/RAP TRENDS SO BUMPED UP A BIT TO MATCH MY THINKING. FORECAST LOWS BASICALLY OCCURRING NOW, AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN WARM SECTOR, OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY TO 10-12C, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, EVEN IN THE FACE OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN CLEAR EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...SOME MIXING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS NW FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY`S HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT DRIER WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 08-14Z BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AREAWIDE. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT LATER THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS BEFORE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE AT SLK/MSS. CARRIED LLWS GROUP IN SLK AND MSS TAFS THROUGH 13Z AND 14Z, RESPECTIVELY. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN SOME GUSTINESS TO 25KTS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY/VFR 06Z FRI THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY LESSENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, THEN BECOME MORE SEASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS THE LEADING SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SPRINKLES TO BEGIN TO TURN INTO RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY, ONCE THE SHOWERS CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS QUICKLY SO I ANTICIPATE THE FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR WILL CEASE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS WELL COVERED WITH ITS RADAR ASSIMILATION SO I CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE HRRR CONCERNING TIMING OF THE PROGRESSIVE MOVING FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 735PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER DRY, HENCE SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AT AUTOMATED STATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE FURTHER AND BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z, A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING QPF TO LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH. FELT LIKELY POPS WERE IN ORDER BASED ON LATEST WRF/RAP TRENDS SO BUMPED UP A BIT TO MATCH MY THINKING. FORECAST LOWS BASICALLY OCCURRING NOW, AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN WARM SECTOR, OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY TO 10-12C, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, EVEN IN THE FACE OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN CLEAR EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...SOME MIXING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS NW FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY`S HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT DRIER WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN. INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT, TURNING GUSTY THURSDAY. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH BUT PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO SHALLOW DRY AIR MASS AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND. FIRST WAVE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOW ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN STARTING 05-08Z PRODUCING 5 TO P6SM VISIBILITY RAIN. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED BY MORNING BEFORE COLD FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALOFT (IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE) WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. SOUTH SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .MARINE... AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY LESSENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO MARINE...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
547 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...PRECEDED BY A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND 17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE KMDT-KLNS AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE. ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 09Z TAFS SENT. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER N PA HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. FEW SHOWERS TO THE NE OF IPT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. LLWS IN AT BFD. STILL LOOKING THE SITUATION OVER. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF BFD. RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AIDING THESE STORMS...EVEN WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...PRECEDED BY A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND 17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE KMDT-KLNS AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE. ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. LLWS IN AT BFD. STILL LOOKING THE SITUATION OVER. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF BFD. RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AIDING THESE STORMS...EVEN WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM 220-260. FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
149 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL STAY DRY IN MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A T IN ANY AREA GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT /10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. LLWS IN AT BFD. STILL LOOKING THE SITUATION OVER. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF BFD. RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AIDING THESE STORMS...EVEN WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM 220-260. FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .AVIATION... 06Z ISSUANCE...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR FOR KDHT AND KAMA. KGUY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS AND THUS RAISE ONLY TO MVFR. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER THAT UNTIL AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTIONS IS LOW AS MODELS SEEM TO NOT HAVE MUCH HANDLE ON THIS. BEAT && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ AVIATION... 00Z ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL THREE SITES BUT EXPECT THESE TO STOP AROUND 09Z FOR KAMA AND KDHT AND 12Z FOR KGUY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS THOUGH. EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALL SITES AROUND 03Z TO 06Z SOUTH TO NORTH AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. DURING THESE STORMS IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. BEAT PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UPDATE... UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE REGION. AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH MORE OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED POP AND QPF AMOUNTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BIEDA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BIEDA AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT 22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU 22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED FOR THEM. BIEDA HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS PRONE TO IT. BIEDA && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL... LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH... HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER... RANDALL...SHERMAN. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS. && $$ 16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BRINGING FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING ARE TO LOWER POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT BUT REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE THROUGH TORONTO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS... THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE S TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE M60S TO L70S FROM THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE AREA...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST...EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT COULD GET INTO THE M70S. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE S/SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO THE W/NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C. IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. SOME ISOLATED LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE OVER THE EAST COAST FOR FAIR AND DRY WX TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A QUICK CONNECTION TO THE GULF IS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE W/SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S BASED ON WET BULB COOLING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME MORE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE REACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE FA SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA CRESTING ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING MONDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AGAIN IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...NEILES/SND/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...11 FIRE WEATHER...WASULA HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DELIVERS SHOWERS SUNDAY...AND COLDER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1010 AM UPDATE... SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA AT LATE MORNING AND TEMPS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S. AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS STILL COVERED NORTHERN MA...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE ISLANDS/HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAIN QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. AN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.5 C/KM WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. ALSO...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/NEAR ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE REALLY NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TOO WELL...BUT LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY MORE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DURING THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... SIMILAR TIMING AMONG THE MODELS FOR COLD FROPA LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING SKIES AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS AT 925 MB BY ABOUT 10C OVERNIGHT. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. OUR MIN TEMPS WILL COME FROM THIS RANGE. FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL SWING OVER NEW ENGLAND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. RAW MODEL DATA INDICATES MOIST AIR BELOW 850 MB WHICH SUNSHINE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAY CONVERT INTO DIURNAL CLOUDS. HOWEVER NONE OF THE MODEL GRID FIELDS INDICATE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SKY COVER. WE WILL GO WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON SKY COVER VALUES THAN THE GRIDS PROVIDE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS TEMPTED TO GO. TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRIER AND COOLER INTO SAT * ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN * RISK FOR MUCH COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK * RISK FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN SWING FROM ZONAL TO MORE MERIDIONAL BY LATE WEEKEND...HANDLING OF THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION SCHEME BY GUIDANCE WILL BE KEY IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WITH THE 22.00Z UPDATE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LENDING TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WX DETAILS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY IN THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH...BUT DO AT LEAST AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD OCCUR. IN FACT...LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBS FROM BOTH THE GEFS/ECENS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PROBS OF PRECIP VALUES EXCEEDING A HALF INCH FOR THU-FRI ALONG WITH PWATS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BOTH ALSO FEATURE A TIGHTLY WOUND OCCLUSION...BUT HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING. GIVEN THESE AGREEMENTS...FEEL THAT CONTINUING WITH THE GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL WORK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE TO ADD A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF FOR THE SUN FRONTAL PASSAGE. ENSEMBLES FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS FAMILIES ARE MORE FAVORABLE TO THIS SOLUTION THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER GFS. DETAILS... FRI NIGHT THRU SAT... HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MINS. ONE ISSUE AS POINTED OUT IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THE RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT COOLING THERE. IN FACT...SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 12-14C WITH WINDS GENERALLY NNELY AND REASONABLY TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT. THEREFORE...WILL BE FEATURING CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THANKS TO THE DIFFERENCE IN SST AND SOME INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE WELL MIXED BL. EXPECT WARMER MINS TOO AS A RESULT. BY SAT... CORE OF THE HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING E ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN MIXING TO H92 WHERE TEMPS HOVER AROUND +2 TO +4C AND LATE DAY INCREASING CLOUDS. MID TO UPPER 50S SEEM LIKE A REASONABLE MIDDLE GROUND. DRY WX PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN... VERY ROBUST LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUN. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL START IN THE W EARLY SUN MORNING IN WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THE DECISION TO LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF TIMING/QPF WITH THIS UPDATE WILL HAVE TWO CONSEQUENCES...IT WILL FEATURE SLOWER POPS...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING NEAR THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY SUN EVENING. IT WILL ALSO MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTAL QPF VALUES. PWATS WILL ACTUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EXITING HIGH PRES...SO WE ARE FAR FROM TALKING DROUGHT-BUSTING NUMBERS HERE. FOR NOW EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALUES AROUND 0.1 INCHES RATHER THAN THE 0.005 OR LESS THE GFS IS SHOWING. THE INCREASED LLJ ON THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MON THRU TUE... WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE FEATURES DRY HIGH PRES...THE TRUE DIFFERENCE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. ECMWF HAS HIGHER PROBABILITY THAT H85 WILL DIP BELOW 0C AND H92 CLOSER TO +2C ON MON...LINGERING INTO TUE. SO EXPECT HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY. BETTER CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING MON NIGHT IT APPEARS...SO WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THIS ALSO MEANS TUE MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON THANKS TO A COOLER START. WED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK... WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES E OF THE ROCKIES...THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FOR A FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BRINGING PRECIP IN BY WED...SO WOULD LIKE TO KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST AGREEMENT FOR THU-FR THAT SOME TYPE OF STRONG OCCLUSION COULD IMPACT THE REGION...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED GUIDANCE YIELDS. THERE ARE SEVERAL WRINKLES TO IRON OUT YET...BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL EVENT. MORE TO COME YET. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOLD OUTS NEAR THE NH BORDER WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON. SW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TODAY/THIS EVE WITH A FEW SHOWERS. VFR WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEF MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER BY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO INTENSIFY A BIT. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT...VFR WILL DOMINATE INTO FRI. SOME SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN...EXPECT WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS INLAND AND 20-25 KNOTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRI NIGHT THRU MON... FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WITH OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR...SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS THE ISSUE SAT NIGHT...OCCASIONAL LOWER VSBYS IN SHOWERS THE ISSUE SUN. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RETURN TO MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GO AWAY AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SUPPORT FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WIND WILL PUSH UP THE SEAS...WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON THE EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WIND WILL DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 5 FEET WILL LINGER ON PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON MOST OF THE WATERS. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS AIR MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE OCEAN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A STRAY SHOWER. THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO BRING WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. OUTLOOK...FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON... FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRI NIGHT SUCH THAT BY SAT AM...MOST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED. HIGH PRES IN PLACE WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER INTO SAT NIGHT. SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY SUN...THEN CROSS THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY ON SUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS WHILE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. EXPECT GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KT ALLOWING SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FT ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...FRANK/WTB/DOODY MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
825 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BRINGING FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 825 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT BUT REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE THROUGH TORONTO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS... THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE S TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE M60S TO L70S FROM THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE AREA...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST...EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT COULD GET INTO THE M70S. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE S/SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO THE W/NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C. IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. SOME ISOLATED LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE OVER THE EAST COAST FOR FAIR AND DRY WX TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A QUICK CONNECTION TO THE GULF IS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE W/SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S BASED ON WET BULB COOLING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME MORE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE REACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE FA SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA CRESTING ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING MONDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AGAIN IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...11 FIRE WEATHER...WASULA HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
ISSUED BY NWS LINCOLN IL 919 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM... 311 AM CDT THROUGH SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. JEE && .LONG TERM... 311 AM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * NONE. AUTEN //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KT TODAY BUT INCREASING AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AUTEN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * HIGH. AUTEN //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR PSBL. SW WIND. SATURDAY...CHC SHRA EARLY. IMPROVING TO VFR. W WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. NE WIND. MONDAY...VFR. SE WIND. TUESDAY...VFR. SE WIND. WEDNESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. W WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 244 AM CDT A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
636 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM... 311 AM CDT THROUGH SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. JEE && .LONG TERM... 311 AM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * NONE. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KT TODAY BUT INCREASING AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AUTEN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * HIGH. AUTEN //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR PSBL. SW WIND. SATURDAY...CHC SHRA EARLY. IMPROVING TO VFR. W WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. NE WIND. MONDAY...VFR. SE WIND. TUESDAY...VFR. SE WIND. WEDNESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. W WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 244 AM CDT A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES WITH THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE. ALL MODELS LIFT THE RAIN SHEILD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL LOOKS VERY GOOD AS MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND THE FORCING IS STRONG. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH THE LEAD WAVE OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB TODAY BUT K INDICES ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED. TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE RAIN WOULD REACH IMPERIAL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...NORTH PLATTE 15Z AND VALENTINE 18Z. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE RAP AND ECM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE FCST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME THE SFC LOW WOULD BE OVER NCNTL NEB AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. A CHECK ON THE NAM FOG PRODUCT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG BUT THAT IS THE FASTER SOLN SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. JUST 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. THE 22.00Z GFSAPPEARS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER. THE NAM IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ALSO SUGGESTING A DRY SLOT...BUT YET MAINTAININGPRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEFORECAST WAS TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF AND LESSER DEGREE THE NAM INMIND. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THEFORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND POSSIBLYNORTHWESTERN /WRAP AROUND/ ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. PROXIMITYSOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY REVEAL LIMITEDINSTABILITY...BUT SUPPOSE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WOULD BEPOSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A PREVAILING SHOWERS MENTION AS IT/SREALLY ONLY THE 00Z NAM SUPPORTING THE WEAK INSTABILITY. TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THISWEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 50S BY MID-WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS WRN KS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH WRN/NCNTL NEB TODAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR/LOCAL IFR BEGINNING THIS EVENING SOUTH AND NORTH TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1204 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GOCZY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND 17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE KMDT-KLNS AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE. ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONT STILL TO THE NW...BUT HARD TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FOR A BRIEF TIME...AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK OUT LLWS...EXPECT WINDS AT THE SFC TO PICK UP SHORTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...PRECEDED BY A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND 17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE KMDT-KLNS AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE. ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ACCAS JUST BEFORE SUNSET LAST EVENING WAS A HINT THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT. ANYWAY...SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ACROSS THE WEST ARE GONE NOW. BFD HAD THUNDER FOR SHORT TIME EARLIER. STORMS OCCURRED WITH STRONG DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH...EVEN WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. FRONT STILL TO THE NW...BUT HARD TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FOR A BRIEF TIME...AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK OUT LLWS...EXPECT WINDS AT THE SFC TO PICK UP SHORTLY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR...GIVEN THE ISOALATED STORM THAT JUST FORMED. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING...AND SLIDING OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAYNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST TO START THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1100 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING ARE TO LOWER POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT BUT REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE THROUGH TORONTO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS... THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C. IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FCST AREA MOVES INTO FAST MVNG 500 HPA FLOW AS A SERIES OF RIDGES AND TROFS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. FRI NIGHT RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION...CLEAR SKIES...13 PLUS HOURS OF DARKNESS AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH SOME ISOLD TEENS IN THE N MTN VLYS OF HAM/HERK CO. THE 500HPA RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A TROF MOVES INTO THE GRT LKS SAT NT AND ACROSS THE RGN SUN. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID REBOUND IN TEMPS UNDER COBALT BLUE SUNNY SKIES. BY AFTN TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S REGION WIDE...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCRG FM THE WEST AS THE CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. THE CDFNT AND ITS MAIN 500 HPA SHORT WV PASS THROUGH THE RGN SAT NT...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING N OF FCA. CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PERIPHERY OF FCA...BUT IN THE FAST 500 HPA WNW FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART QUICKLY AS THE NXT SFC HIGH BUILDS FM W GRT LKS SUN AFTN TO SITING OVER THE NE USA MON MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 40S SAT NT... AND RECOVER TO THE 50S SUN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE MEAN MDL RH DRIES OUT NICELY SUN...THE AMNT OF CLEARING IS QUESTIONABLE AS INVERSION REMAINS ARND 5KFT...AND MOST STATISTICAL GUID RETAINS BKN/OVC CLOUDS. HWVR 7 HPA SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS WILL CERTAINLY PROMOTE MIXING IN THE WAKE OF CDFNT...AND EXPECT DCRG CLOUDS IN THE AFTN AND CLEARING SUN NT..SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER E GRT LKS KEEPING SOME N-NE GRADIENT OVER FCA...AND LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON SUN NT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA CRESTING ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING MONDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AGAIN IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...11 FIRE WEATHER...WASULA HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND UPSTATE NY. THIS FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD REACH THE POCONOS AROUND SUNSET AND I-95 BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE AND FORCING IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT THERE WAS ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PA HIGHLANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP, THESE WEAKLY FORCED SHOWERS TEND TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE CROSS MOUNTAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR AND NCEP WRF ARW AND NMM ALL SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND 00Z. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY AND EVENTUALLY NLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. CAA ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THOUGH MIXING DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT DEEP. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA. DESPITE THE CAA, MIN TEMP FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. THE CAA WILL PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS NLY WINDS ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE MOST FREQUENT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW GUIDANCE OFTEN UNDERDOES THE EXTENT OF THE CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS, SIDED WITH THE NAM, WHICH HINTS AT SOME CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE. GENERALLY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HEATING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10-15F LOWER THAN THEY ARE TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE OCTOBER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT, TOWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING, PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING OF THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE BEST TIME LOOKS TO BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR HEAVILY FAVORED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A CAVEAT THOUGH AS STRATOCU BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE CIGS NEAR 3 KFT BETWEEN 06-12Z. THIS LIKELIHOOD OF IT BEING MORE THAN SCT IS LOW AND THUS MVFR WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE 18Z TAF. WHILE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES, THE COVERAGE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. ANY IMPACTS ON CIGS AND VSBYS WOULD BE MINIMAL ANYWAY. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS BECOME WLY BY MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING TO N- NWLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KT AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN EAST MONDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SWLY WINDS 15-20 KT THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS BECOME WLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH FROPA AND THEN N-NWLY LATE. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS CAA ALOFT OCCURS ABOVE THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS. BASED ON WHAT`S AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, ISSUED A SCA FOR ANZ450-451 FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM FRIDAY. IT IS A MARGINAL SETUP FOR 25 KT GUSTS BUT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A HEADLINE. THE GRADIENT IS EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH, SO GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE COMMON. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FT THRU THIS EVENING TO 3-4 FT BY FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST IN THE LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450- 451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. RADAR SHOWS MAJORITY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED OUT OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO FEED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. DRY SLOT ON WV IMAGERY COINCIDE WITH AREA OS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTH SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. FAR NORTHWEST AND EAST HAVE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN WITHING AREAS OF BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AS DEFORMATION ZONE PASSES TO THE NW. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL DRY AIR. I KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER END OF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANY PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT (DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN SHOWERS). GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTS NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. I COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNRISE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB...POSSIBLY 750MB. AT THIS LEVEL 30-40KT JET WOULD SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON SATURDAY LOTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SUNSET. THESE HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S. MONDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY AS A 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/FRONT. 850-500MB LAYER RATHER DRY AND POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL IT WOULD BE AROUND/BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT SKY COVER FORECAST WITH THE GFS THE DRIER MODEL...ECMWF THE WETTEST/MORE MOIST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WEDNESDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SFC HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND FOCUS WILL BE ON LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL AIM FOR LOW TO MID 30S WITH A CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO TRANSITION NORTH FROM BOTH TERMINALS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO LED TO FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ON BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON THIS SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY. LOWEST VIS SHOULD BE IN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO LINGER AND MODELS INDICATE LOW CIGS/VIS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOST NEGATIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING LIFR (1/4SM VIS) BY 08-09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER BACK OVER BOTH TERMINALS (KGLD FIRST). I LOWERED CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FAVORED LESS NEGATIVE END OF GUIDANCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AT KGLD...LATER AT KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. RADAR SHOWS MAJORITY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED OUT OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO FEED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. DRY SLOT ON WV IMAGERY COINCIDE WITH AREA OS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTH SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. FAR NORTHWEST AND EAST HAVE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN WITHING AREAS OF BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AS DEFORMATION ZONE PASSES TO THE NW. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL DRY AIR. I KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER END OF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANY PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT (DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN SHOWERS). GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTS NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. I COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNRISE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB...POSSIBLY 750MB. AT THIS LEVEL 30-40KT JET WOULD SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...BUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH IT. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF CONCERN REMAINS THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE PRESENT TIME...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THAT BEING SAID...A FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE APPEARS MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. SOUTHERN WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN WARMER WEATHER. AS A RESULT...MADE A CHANGE TO THE INITIALIZATION TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY EXCEEDED GUIDANCE LATELY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY BE OBSERVED MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. ON TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WITHIN THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO FRONTAL TIMING. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS AMPLE BUST OPPORTUNITY FOR TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH. A FASTER FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR AHEAD OF A SLOWER MOVING FRONT. HERE IS THE BAD NEWS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE AS WITH LAST NIGHT`S FORECAST GUIDANCE. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO WAVES OF ENERGY SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE FIRST...STRONGER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PRIMARILY AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TIMING OF DAY AND COLD FRONT MOVEMENT WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONG FORCING WOULD MEAN SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THE TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. FINALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROST/FREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS REMAINS. COLD AIR ADVECTION...WEAKENING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLEARING SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR A PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES. FEEL TWO METER AND MOS GUIDANCE REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH. ESSENTIALLY ISSUED WITH THE SAME FORECAST PRODUCED YESTERDAY BUT HAD TO MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT DOWN FROM WHAT WAS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2015 AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO TRANSITION NORTH FROM BOTH TERMINALS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO LED TO FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ON BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON THIS SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY. LOWEST VIS SHOULD BE IN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO LINGER AND MODELS INDICATE LOW CIGS/VIS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOST NEGATIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING LIFR (1/4SM VIS) BY 08-09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER BACK OVER BOTH TERMINALS (KGLD FIRST). I LOWERED CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FAVORED LESS NEGATIVE END OF GUIDANCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AT KGLD...LATER AT KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JTL/RRH AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES WITH THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE. ALL MODELS LIFT THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL LOOKS VERY GOOD AS MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND THE FORCING IS STRONG. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH THE LEAD WAVE OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB TODAY BUT K INDICES ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED. TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE RAIN WOULD REACH IMPERIAL AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...NORTH PLATTE 15Z AND VALENTINE 18Z. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE RAP AND ECM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE FCST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME THE SFC LOW WOULD BE OVER NCNTL NEB AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. A CHECK ON THE NAM FOG PRODUCT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG BUT THAT IS THE FASTER SOLN SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. JUST 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. THE 22.00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER. THE NAM IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ALSO SUGGESTING A DRY SLOT...BUT YET MAINTAINING PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF AND LESSER DEGREE THE NAM IN MIND. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY NORTHWESTERN /WRAP AROUND/ ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY REVEAL LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT SUPPOSE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A PREVAILING SHOWERS MENTION AS IT/S REALLY ONLY THE 00Z NAM SUPPORTING THE WEAK INSTABILITY. TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 50S BY MID-WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 PRECIP SHIELD LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALREADY IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ARRIVAL AT THE KVTN TERMINAL BY 20Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONCERN ACROSS SW NEB THAT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING AND RETURNS THE AREA TO IFR CONDITIONS. LESS CONFIDENCE THE IMPACT FURTHER NORTH WHERE MORE DRY AIR EXISTS...THUS INCREASED TO VFR OVERNIGHT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
414 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW. FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH HIGHS TODAY WERE SLIGHTLY MUTED DUE TO THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE FADED BY TIME THE FRONT REACHES US...THOUGH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVERTHE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A MARGINAL 850MB LLJET HAS INCREASED THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH TO CAUSE A WEAK LINE TO FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST PA. THE 16Z HRRR IS SHOWING THESE WEAK SHOWERS AND CONTINUES THE TREND OF LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES THE DRYING TREND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN...BEFORE DROPPING OFF AS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. AFTER FROPA SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COOL NIGHT FRI NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST AS NORTHERLY FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY BRINGS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEFORE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE SE. RETURN FLOW BEGINS OVER W PA AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW...BUT OVERALL LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SAT WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND 10C...BUT WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN A DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE SLOWER MOVING WARM FRONT /AS SHOWN IN THE GEFS AND EC/...CROSSING THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS PARENT LOW SLIDES BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THESE FRONTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TO LIKELY COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. QPF TOTALS COULD BE IN NEIGHBORHOOD OF HALF AN INCH IN THE NW MTNS TAPERING TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUE...BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. BY WED AND ESP HEADING INTO THU...A SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST...BRINGING A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL WED AND ESP THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED AND LOWERED...WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH BFD...AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO BE POSSIBLE AT JST AS WELL. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK...AND SHOULDN/T REDUCED VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIMIT ANY FORMATION OF REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG/MIST OVERNIGHT. IT DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD AND IPT OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z. ANY REDUCING CIGS HOWEVER SHOULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...AND EVERYWHERE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW. FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH HIGHS TODAY WERE SLIGHTLY MUTED DUE TO THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE FADED BY TIME THE FRONT REACHES US...THOUGH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVERTHE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A MARGINAL 850MB LLJET HAS INCREASED THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH TO CAUSE A WEAK LINE TO FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST PA. THE 16Z HRRR IS SHOWING THESE WEAK SHOWERS AND CONTINUES THE TREND OF LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES THE DRYING TREND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN...BEFORE DROPPING OFF AS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. AFTER FROPA SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED AND LOWERED...WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH BFD...AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO BE POSSIBLE AT JST AS WELL. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK...AND SHOULDN/T REDUCED VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIMIT ANY FORMATION OF REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG/MIST OVERNIGHT. IT DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD AND IPT OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z. ANY REDUCING CIGS HOWEVER SHOULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...AND EVERYWHERE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/CERU NEAR TERM...CERU SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING.. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED... THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL DAY FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH OF DFW WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS ALREADY TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW AREAS...BUT LUCKILY OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOW MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TO ABSORB INTO THE SOIL WITH JUST MAINLY SOME STREET FLOODING REPORTED. THE PERSISTENT RAIN AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO A GAINESVILLE...TO DECATUR... TO EASTLAND LINE. THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY REMAINS ANALOGOUS AT BEST...AS EVEN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS JOIN THE STANDARD MODELS IN NOT RESOLVING THE CURRENT BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...OR THE COLD POOL VERY WELL AT ALL. PICKING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS NOT IN THE CARDS TODAY AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HRRR AND ECMWF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR IS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH TO BE OUTRUN BY IT/S COLD POOL AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT REFORMING OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE WEST OF A SHERMAN...DALLAS...COMANCHE LINE WITH MORE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS EASING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO WEST- CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE LARGE SCALE WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT COMBINING WITH ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WHERE THAT WILL BE IS ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SET UP SOMEWHERE. OTHER AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL RACING NORTH WITH THE MEAN SSW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN VERY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE MORE PRIMED FROM CURRENT RAINFALL AND REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE LAST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING THIS FEATURE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LLJ AND 850MB WAA ENCOUNTER INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY DROP A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MY BIG CONCERN WITH THE SECOND EVENT IS THAT MANY AREAS MAY BE SATURATED OR EXPERIENCING ONGOING...LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WINDOW IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN REGARDING BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS WE FINISH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE TRACK MORE FLAT AND OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS EITHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OR TAPERING OFF. WITH MY CONFIDENCE VERY LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING THE ENTIRETY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL COME MORE IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS. TIMING SUCH ROUNDS IS ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...THUS WE STRESS TO EVERYONE TO BE PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF THEY ARE SUCCUMBED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OR EXTREME URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. WE WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE TIMING THE ROUNDS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS BEST WE CAN...BUT THE BEST BET IS TO BE AWARE AT ALL TIMES...ESPECIALLY DRIVING AND OUTDOORS...TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...RAIN...RAIN-PRODUCED COLD POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND HALLOWEEN...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW WITH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS TO ADVERTISE FUTURE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. 05/ && 05 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1259 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/ /18Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE SCATTERED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 20-21Z BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME AND HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE VCTS FROM THE TAF BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AIRPORTS WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN. THROUGH THE NIGHT...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY STREAM NORTH AND WILL KEEP THE VCSH MENTION OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IF THE MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS DURING THE DAY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN BAND WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT SPEEDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-22 KTS. THE WINDS MAY FALL BELOW 12 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. JLDUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 78 67 71 59 / 100 100 100 90 60 WACO, TX 71 80 67 74 60 / 70 90 100 100 70 PARIS, TX 68 75 66 72 59 / 90 100 80 100 70 DENTON, TX 67 77 66 71 58 / 100 80 90 90 50 MCKINNEY, TX 68 76 66 72 59 / 100 90 90 100 60 DALLAS, TX 68 78 67 72 59 / 100 100 100 100 60 TERRELL, TX 70 78 67 74 61 / 80 90 100 100 70 CORSICANA, TX 70 80 68 75 61 / 60 80 80 100 70 TEMPLE, TX 71 80 67 74 61 / 60 80 80 100 70 MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 79 64 71 58 / 100 80 80 80 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174- 175. && $$ 82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM... PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL OFF TO THE WEST OF US...WE STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY...THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUMES ARE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST HEADACHE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE THE ISSUE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MODELS FORECAST WIND SPEEDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE NEVER FULLY BURNED OFF ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT IN PLACE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD... ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WEAK WINDS...EXPECT TO SEE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SUN SETS. THE NAM...HRRR...AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY FAST. FEEL THAT THIS IS A MORE TYPICAL SETUP WE SEE FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE MENTION OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND GO 100 PERCENT COVERAGE ON CLOUDS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL WE SEE EXACTLY HOW THINGS UNFOLD...ANY CONVECTION COULD HELP RAISE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ONE OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DUE TO EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS/FOG WAS TO BUMP UP MORNING LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BY 3-5 DEGREES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS SO FAR AND CLOUD COVER HOLDING LONGWAVE RADIATION IN SHOULD HELP TO HOLD MINS UP SOME. FINALLY BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY HELPING TO MIX IN SOME DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVE US SLIGHTLY CLEARER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WERE COOLED ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND NUMBERS AS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH. JORDAN .LONG TERM... THE UA LOW THAT HAS PROVIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY...IS STILL PROGGED TO OPEN UP WHILE EJECTING ENE ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WANING FURTHER STILL BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN DRYING COMMENCING TONIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND /PWATS OF 0.80-1.00 INCH/. WITH A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT STILL PROJECTED TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND A TRAILING UA TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THIS COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS /COINCIDING WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS/. THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN POSSIBLY IN THE WORKS...AS A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...ONE ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT AND BRIEF UA RIDGING OCCURRING IN BETWEEN /WEDNESDAY/. KEEPING IN MIND THAT MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD...BUT IF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES INDEED COME INTO FRUITION...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE FEASIBLE. THE SUPER- BLENDED SOLUTION HOLDING ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. DUE TO A COUPLE OF FROPAS AND RELATIVELY STEADY 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD /60S AND 70S/...FOLLOWED BY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 14/29