Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/22/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS REMAINED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED OVER MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES...NOT SO MUCH
ELSEWHERE. THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH
FLOODING OVER SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS OF FAR NORTHERN METRO PHOENIX.
RUNOFF IN NEW RIVER AND SKUNK CREEK HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE
PRECIP GAUGE READINGS AND RADAR ESTIMATES. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF A
NARROW ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. IN ADDITION TO
THE PVA...UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO IN PLAY. THE LATEST RAP INDICATES
THAT THE SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF MARICOPA COUNTY BY 20Z.
HOWEVER...IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE LINGERING UPPER
DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS SOME MODEST VORTICITY AS THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BECOMES CENTERED
NEAR BLYTHE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF FAR NORTHERN BAJA...WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING DECREASES THIS
AFTERNOON THE RAP HOLDS ON TO SIGNIFICANT CAPE. OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING SREF...TRENDS DOWN THE CAPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO DECREASE AS WELL. THE SHORT OF IT IS
THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH GOING ON THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE
EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECASTS BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 320 AM...
AFTER AN EVENING OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH
BROADER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SEVERAL POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARIZONA. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST
TODAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCES OF ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. AS OF NOW THINKING THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
WITH A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REORIENT ITSELF OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PV ANOMALY
ACCOMPANIED BY A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP TROUGH...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH FURTHER. THIS STRONG PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND THEN SWING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AMPLE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA SIGNIFICANTLY.
STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT...SO STORM MOVEMENT
WILL SLOW ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH AN AREA OF FOCUSED VERTICAL ASCENT FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO GET DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DROP LEAVING MAINLY A
GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
SEEM RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THIS DEEP LOW
FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BRING IN A WEAK RIDGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND THEN
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...OVENIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 2 PM MOST OF THE
STRONG STORMS HAD ENDED AND MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS FOLLOWING A
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY AOA 6K FEET.
REDEVELOPEMENT OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY BY MID EVENING WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS WED...WITH BASES GENLY 7-10K FEET.
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO WED WILL BE SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ISOLATED SIDE. THUS...AFTER 02Z-04Z WE WILL GO
WITH PREDOMINANT -SHRA...AND KEEP VCTS TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
THREATS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND VARIABLE
SIDE...BUT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW SHOULD STAY IN
ARIZONA...BUT KBLH MAY BE ON THE FRINGES OF POSSIBLE WEATHER AND
THUS WE WILL KEEP -SHRA ALONG WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
ABOVE 7K FEET. NO WEATHER EXPECTED AT KIPL...JUST FEW-SCT HIGHER
BASED CU OR MID DECKS WITH BASES MOSTLY 8-10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING WEST/NORTHWEST AT KIPL AND NORTH AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE
BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB...STARTING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON
FRIDAY AND CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH WARMER DESERTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES POSSIBLE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
923 AM MST TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS REMAINED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED OVER MARICOPA AND LA PAZ COUNTIES...NOT SO MUCH
ELSEWHERE. THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH
FLOODING OVER SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS OF FAR NORTHERN METRO PHOENIX.
RUNOFF IN NEW RIVER AND SKUNK CREEK HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE
PRECIP GAUGE READINGS AND RADAR ESTIMATES. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF A
NARROW ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. IN ADDITION TO
THE PVA...UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO IN PLAY. THE LATEST RAP INDICATES
THAT THE SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF MARICOPA COUNTY BY 20Z.
HOWEVER...IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE LINGERING UPPER
DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS SOME MODEST VORTICITY AS THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BECOMES CENTERED
NEAR BLYTHE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX...CURRENTLY NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF FAR NORTHERN BAJA...WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING DECREASES THIS
AFTERNOON THE RAP HOLDS ON TO SIGNIFICANT CAPE. OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING SREF...TRENDS DOWN THE CAPE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO DECREASE AS WELL. THE SHORT OF IT IS
THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH GOING ON THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE
EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECASTS BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 320 AM...
AFTER AN EVENING OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH
BROADER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SEVERAL POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARIZONA. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST
TODAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCES OF ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. AS OF NOW THINKING THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
WITH A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REORIENT ITSELF OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PV ANOMALY
ACCOMPANIED BY A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP TROUGH...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH FURTHER. THIS STRONG PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND THEN SWING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AMPLE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA SIGNIFICANTLY.
STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT...SO STORM MOVEMENT
WILL SLOW ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH AN AREA OF FOCUSED VERTICAL ASCENT FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO GET DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO INSTABILITY VALUES WILL DROP LEAVING MAINLY A
GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
SEEM RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THIS DEEP LOW
FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BRING IN A WEAK RIDGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND THEN
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE TO RACE
NORTHWARD AND ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID MORNING /ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS YUMA/SW MARICOPA COUNTIES/ AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL PHOENIX
TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS BUT IT WOULD APPEAR CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REACH THEIR PEAK
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRIMARILY AFFECT ARIZONA...ALTHOUGH BLH MAY SEE SOME
STORM ACTIVITY. SHOULD BE TOO DRY AT IPL TO SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
928 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES
OVER THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SPANISH PEAKS. LIKELY SEEING SOME
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE CULEBRA RANGE AND SPANISH PEAKS...BUT
HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT SO CURRENT HEADLINES
LOOK ON TARGET. STILL LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A LULL THU MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
CO. LATEST NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN ITS POOR PERFORMANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT
NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE SOLUTION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS
REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES
PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF
THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH
VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE
WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE
OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS
WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO AND KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z
...KMTJ...KCNY...KMTJ...KASE AND KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
RESENT TO FIX TYPO.
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA UP TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF
45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS
OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
KDRO KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z...KMTJ KCNY KMTJ KASE KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
247 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA UP TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF
45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS
OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
KDRO KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z...KMTJ KCNY KMTJ KASE KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE/JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1222 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY DIGGING
THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA. STRONG DIVERGENT
PORTION OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS FOR AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW. LOCALLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS PRIMED FOR HAIL WITH THE WET
BULB ZERO LEVEL BELOW 11KFT...MOISTURE IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND
INSTABILITY IS FAIR WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING. STORM MOTION IS TO THE NE AT 25KTS. SO EVEN HEAVY
SHOWERS MAY HAVE LESS POTENTIAL RUNOFF IMPACT DUE TO HAIL
PRODUCTION AND SPEED OF STORMS. STILL THE FOUR CORNERS SOILS ARE
SATURATED OR NEARLY SO.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES. INTENSITY
HAS BACKED DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL SEEING A FEW STRONGER CELLS
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE COOLER AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS WYOMING. HRRR AND RAP BOTH
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WILL DECREASE POPS AS WE WORK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS FOR TODAY...DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER WAVE ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ROTATE UP AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WE SAW LAST EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH...WHICH
WILL BE MORE PRONE TO QUICK AND SUDDEN RUNOFF IN OUR SLOT AND ROCK
COUNTRY. WITH THE LOW SLOW TO MOVE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
STILL POSSIBLE OVER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT SEES CONVECTION ROLL
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING WAVES WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW
FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO PUSH IN LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP A BIT...MAYBE AS LOW AS 9K BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. AT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS BACKING OFF QPF NUMBERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH SOME
AGREEMENT THERE...WILL STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND ALLOW
POPS TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. ANOTHER WAVE DOES
APPROACH BY MONDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES KEEPING CONFIDENCE
LOW WITH THAT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO START OFF THE EXTENDED...WITH A NUDGE UP OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA UP TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF
45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS
OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
KDRO KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z...KMTJ KCNY KMTJ KASE KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES. INTENSITY
HAS BACKED DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL SEEING A FEW STRONGER CELLS
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHRTWV ROTATING NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE
CONDS ARE COOLER AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS WYOMING. HRR AND RAP BOTH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WILL DECREASE POPS AS WE WORK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS FOR TODAY...DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER WAVE ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ROTATE UP AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WE SAW LAST EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH...WHICH
WILL BE MORE PRONE TO QUICK AND SUDDEN RUNOFF IN OUR SLOT AND ROCK
COUNTRY. WITH THE LOW SLOW TO MOVE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
STILL POSSIBLE OVER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THAT SEES CONVECTION ROLL
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING WAVES WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW
FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO PUSH IN LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP A BIT...MAYBE AS LOW AS 9K BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. AT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS BACKING OFF QPF NUMBERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH SOME
AGREEMENT THERE...WILL STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND ALLOW
POPS TO TAIL OFF THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. ANOTHER WAVE DOES
APPROACH BY MONDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES KEEPING CONFIDENCE
LOW WITH THAT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO START OFF THE EXTENDED...WITH A NUDGE UP OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP
BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO
REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1132 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUMBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE SIZE
HAIL IN THE POPULATED AREAS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ROLLING NE
OVERNIGHT AIDED BY WEAK SPEED MAX AND SHRTWV ENERGY LIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH BLEND OF THE HRRR
AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
TONIGHT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A JET COUPLET PRODUCING SOME DEFORMATION AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO. LESSER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY. STORM MOTION
WILL BE TO THE NE AT 25-30 KTS SO LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MILD FOR MID OCTOBER.
THE WET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT BY MIDDAY
THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...UPSTREAM OF THE LOW.
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER JET WILL TAKE AIM ON THE
FOUR CORNERS AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHICH WILL BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
THE LOW MEANDERS THROUGH AZ ON WED/WED EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ON THU. THEREFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU...WITH A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THU...SO COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE EGALITARIAN...EXCEPT SHOWERS WILL STILL FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
A SPLITTING SECONDARY WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THU.
THIS ALREADY WEAK WAVE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE...AND WILL FORM A
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AZ ON FRI. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH AZ FRI NIGHT. WHILE SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DECREASE.
THEREFORE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
A SHORT-LIVED...WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TROUGH...AND OVER
OUR CWA ON SAT. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL FOLLOW...BUT THESE ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THEREFORE
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAIN MILD...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
447 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AS SIGNIFICANT ENERGY AND DEEP TROUGHING
DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THESE
HEIGHT FALLS AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL HELP TO FURTHER AMPLIFY THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER OUR HEADS QUITE
DRY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WAS WELL SAMPLED BY
THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING LAST EVENING...AND DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
MOISTENING OF THIS AIRMASS THROUGH TODAY.
ALL THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...GENERALLY BELOW 800MB WHERE SOME AIRMASS MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING FROM THE LOWER LEVEL WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
OUR NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN ORGANIZATION OR
POSITION THROUGH TODAY.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
LOWER STATOCU OFF THE ATLANTIC CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR OR THE STATE...HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS
ARE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS THEY ATTEMPT TO MOVE INLAND...AND WILL
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MANY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
GENERALLY BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDING IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE
MORNING...SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS SEEN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
GIVING WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING OF THE
LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE. WIDELY SCT AND VERY SHALLOW SPEED
CONVERGENCE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
QUICKLY MIGRATE INLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. KEEPING
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10% EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER...A FEW
BRIEF SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS INLAND AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR SUMTER/POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT THIS FAR INLAND FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WETTING RAINS FOR ANY
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
LOWER 80S NORTH AND MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LESS GUSTY WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
ANY SPEED CONVERGENCE SPRINKLES SHOULD AGAIN BECOME CONFINED TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF THE STATE. SO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL
LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FURTHER
SOUTH.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND HENCE NEITHER
DOES THE FORECAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO A SCT CUMULUS
FIELD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE
INTERIOR FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN REMAIN
BELOW 10% FOR ALL AREAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT WEAKEN BY A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A STEADY
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
GUSTY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADA. A CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. U/L ENERGY WILL DIG ALONG THE PACIFIC
WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE U/L LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CARVING OUT A L/W TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BUILD THE DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...UNDER-CUTTING AN EXTENSIVE U/L RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA THROUGH ALASKA. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL
EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BRIDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
U/L ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE U/L RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND HEIGHTS LOWER LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES BUT WILL REMAIN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK L/L
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED AND GUSTY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EVENING. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
LESS GUSTY WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ELEVATED AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS
INCREASING EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. CAUTIONARY
LEVEL WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLD TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK KEEPING A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW GOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS WILL AT TIMES BE RATHER GUSTY...LEADING TO
ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THE NEXT
SEVERAL AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND
VERY LIGHT...AND WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 86 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 84 66 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 85 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 83 63 86 65 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 83 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
958 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED BUT
IT WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BELIEVE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
BE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME RIVER VALLEYS. THE SREF AND
HRRR GUIDANCE PLUS GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATED LITTLE FOG. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELIEVE THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STAY DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TOMORROW. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT DEWPOINTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THIS EVENING...BY NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES...INDICATING THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE IMPROVED CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
INCLUDING AGS/OGB.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NC/SC AND UTILIZING THE CROSSOVER TEMP METHOD VSBYS
COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 07Z FOLLOWED BY A PREVAILING GROUP
OF IFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS THROUGH 12Z AT
AGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT OGB 08Z-12Z WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
OTHER TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED BUT
IT WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BELIEVE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
BE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME RIVER VALLEYS. THE SREF
GUIDANCE PLUS GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATED LITTLE FOG. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELIEVE THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STAY DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TOMORROW. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT DEWPOINTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THIS EVENING...BY NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES...INDICATING THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE IMPROVED CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
INCLUDING AGS/OGB.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NC/SC AND UTILIZING THE CROSSOVER TEMP METHOD VSBYS
COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 07Z FOLLOWED BY A PREVAILING GROUP
OF IFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS THROUGH 12Z AT
AGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT OGB 08Z-12Z WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
OTHER TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
650 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE...1027 HPA...CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL HOLD ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA TONIGHT.
A BROAD EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME. THE LATEST NAM AND RAP SHOW A BIT
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 20/12Z GEM CLOUD COVER PRODUCT. HAVE LOWERED
CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS...BUT STILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF A HILTON HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT ENSUES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PREVAIL INLAND.
WEAK ISENTROPIC 295-300K ASSENT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST AFTER 2-3 AM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES APPROACH THE GEORGIA
BEACHES...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED IN THOSE ZONES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A VERY
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT AMPLE
MOISTURE IN TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND/OR
STRATOCUMULUS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. MODELS SHIFTED THE ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST BOTH OF THESE DAYS, SO
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REFLECT THIS.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS, BUT NOT A COMPLETE
WASHOUT. FRIDAY THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL (IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S), THEN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER
80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD DRIVE A
WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. EXPECT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN SUBSIDENCE...LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS...
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THEN NORTHWEST AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. COULD SEE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND...BUT SUSPECT ANY CIGS
THAT ARE ESTABLISHED WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
COASTAL TROUGH LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS AT BUOYS
41008 AND 41112 SUGGEST SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE
GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED THERE. IT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TIMING
LOOKS GOOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO PREVAIL FAR OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING
THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS AND
AN ELONGATED BUT WEAK COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL CREATE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST MODERATE
BREEZE (AROUND 15 KT). WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE SHOULD REACH THE
STRENGTH OF A FRESH BREEZE (AROUND 20 KT). THESE STRONGER WINDS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A LONG FETCH POINTED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL ALLOW LARGER WAVES TO BUILD. THESE WAVES WILL PROPAGATE INTO
OUR WATERS, MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OR
POSSIBLY FRIDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS COULD BUILD
TO 6 FT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ONE WITH THIS PACKAGE
BECAUSE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN THE WAVE
HEIGHTS, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OFFSHORE AND THE
ORIENTATION THE BEST FETCH TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WEAKENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN BRIEFLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BEFORE THEY COULD START DETERIORATING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
901 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A cold front is beginning to push into the northwest portion the
forecast area with little fanfare, and do not expect this to
change much for the rest of the night. The wave driving the front
into the area is quickly pushing off into the eastern Great
Lakes/Canada, taking most of the forcing with it. There is a weak
wave tracking northeast into the Midwest from the Plains and this
disturbance has some mid=level returns (likely only sprinkles or
virga) spreading into western Missouri and Iowa. This disturbance
is likely to impact only the northern portion of the forecast
area later tonight, so have limited slight chance PoPs to this
area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, going forecast looks
good and only slight tweaks have been made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western
Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the
eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The
boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and
eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture
for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way
of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry
forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at
least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA.
19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across
eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of
the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid-
level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the
front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight
low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings
remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on
Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as
mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very
warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather
system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of
pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of
the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with
timing and location of this front through the end of the week and
have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in
the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the
southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the
rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some
differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving
into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated
thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week
and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole
area.
The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just
below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into
the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to
just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week,
another weather system will move into the area with another chance
of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences
on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible.
Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps
should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A cold front will slip into the central Illinois terminal area
tonight and eventually stall. This will result in mainly light
winds through the 00Z TAF forecast period. The precipitation risk
with FROPA is minimal, and not mentioned in terminal forecasts,
and VFR conditions should prevail through the entire period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
639 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western
Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the
eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The
boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and
eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture
for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way
of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry
forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at
least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA.
19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across
eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of
the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid-
level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the
front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight
low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings
remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on
Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as
mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very
warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather
system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of
pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of
the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with
timing and location of this front through the end of the week and
have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in
the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the
southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the
rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some
differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving
into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated
thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week
and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole
area.
The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just
below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into
the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to
just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week,
another weather system will move into the area with another chance
of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences
on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible.
Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps
should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A cold front will slip into the central Illinois terminal area
tonight and eventually stall. This will result in mainly light
winds through the 00Z TAF forecast period. The precipitation risk
with FROPA is minimal, and not mentioned in terminal forecasts,
and VFR conditions should prevail through the entire period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the
southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into
the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong
southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into
Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants
of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet
late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi
River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track
northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations
northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again
strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight,
additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both
the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could
potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across
this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast.
Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10-
15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than
in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the
Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high
pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low
pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area.
Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be
expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a
slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling
southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as
moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of
the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs
reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL
Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for
Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front
stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to
mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday.
Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday
as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low
into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving
into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has
been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the
latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to-
run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of
the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast
instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for
thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern
portions of Illinois.
Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through
Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois
Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE
Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows
generally in the low 40s.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Brisk southwesterly winds gusting to between 20 and 25kt will
persist for the balance of the afternoon before subsiding to
around 12kt by sunset. Models show another nocturnal LLJ
developing tonight, oriented from eastern Kansas to northern
Illinois. While the core of the jet will remain just W/NW of the
central Illinois terminals, forecast soundings suggest 40kt
winds developing at around 1500ft at KPIA overnight. Mid/high
clouds will be on the increase tonight as well, as the jet
strengthens and a weak short-wave tracks through the region. Many
high-res models show scattered showers/thunder developing along
the nose of the jet across Iowa, then pushing into northern
Illinois overnight. Due to the proximity of these showers, have
included VCSH at KPIA between 05z and 11z. After that, short-wave
quickly passes to the east and the mid-level clouds scatter by
Wednesday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is unfolding across
central Illinois...courtesy of high pressure anchored over the
southeast CONUS. The only potential fly-in-the-ointment is a small
cluster of convection that has developed ahead of a cold front
over northwest Missouri. These storms have been tracking to the E/NE
this morning and will continue to do so over the next few hours.
Most model guidance suggests the convection will remain W/NW of the
KILX CWA: however, the HRRR shows it potentially tracking across
locations northwest of the Illinois River by mid to late afternoon.
Based on current radar/satellite loops...will trend toward the HRRR
solution. As a result...will be maintaining slight chance PoPs for
showers across the NW CWA this afternoon. Elsewhere around the
area...am expecting partly to mostly sunny skies with high
temperatures climbing well into the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Gusty southwest winds will highlight the weather today. The winds
will be driven by a relatively tight pressure gradient across IL
from NW to SE, as our area remains wedged between high pressure in
the southeast states and a cold front extending from Lake Superior
to western Kansas. The cold front will sag closer to IL this
afternoon, with spotty showers or sprinkles possible after 21z/4 pm
for areas NW of the Illinois river. Moisture content of the
approaching airmass will be limited, so any rainfall amounts will be
very light. Despite increasing cloud cover this afternoon, high
temps will climb above yesterday, with readings in the mid 70s
toward Indiana and upper 70s in west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
High pressure has settled over the southern Atlantic Coast this
morning as south/southwesterly flow continues into the Midwest. The
warmer temperatures will continue through tomorrow. The overnight
forecast is mainly dry with the exception of areas along and NW of
the Illinois River Valley. A weak boundary to the NW will settle
into the Midwest providing a focus for some sct precip. The airmass
that the boundary is running into is fairly dry and precip will be
difficult to come by, but the models are persistent in developing a
few showers. Warm temps through Wednesday and dry...but a weak
boundary settling/developing in the region will allow for a more
northeasterly flow to winds through the end of Thursday and limit
the afternoon warming. Models previously kept the sct showers to the
north, however, recent runs are dropping the sfc wind convergence a
little further south. As of yet, leaving Thursday dry. The 00z GFS
came in with a thin line of showers associated with this front and
cannot rule out the possible addition of some low pops for Thursday,
but will hinge greatly on how much moisture can actually return to
the atmosphere over the next few days with the continued southerly
flow off of the Gulf Coast, and more southwesterly aloft from the
deeper moisture to the SW. Previously drier forecast is starting to
erode well before the weekend system, but a lot hinges on the
moisture advection from the SW, so the pops will remain low.
The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and through the Midwest
bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this
weekend...Friday night and Saturday. Have kept the mention of
thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday as the front
settles into the area with the max heat of the afternoon. Temps a
little more seasonal going into the work week with highs in the
lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Brisk southwesterly winds gusting to between 20 and 25kt will
persist for the balance of the afternoon before subsiding to
around 12kt by sunset. Models show another nocturnal LLJ
developing tonight, oriented from eastern Kansas to northern
Illinois. While the core of the jet will remain just W/NW of the
central Illinois terminals, forecast soundings suggest 40kt
winds developing at around 1500ft at KPIA overnight. Mid/high
clouds will be on the increase tonight as well, as the jet
strengthens and a weak short-wave tracks through the region. Many
high-res models show scattered showers/thunder developing along
the nose of the jet across Iowa, then pushing into northern
Illinois overnight. Due to the proximity of these showers, have
included VCSH at KPIA between 05z and 11z. After that, short-wave
quickly passes to the east and the mid-level clouds scatter by
Wednesday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Fire weather risk will remain a concern today, due to SW winds
gusting up to 20-25 mph, low relative humidity of 25-30% and dry
fuel moisture. Increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold
front will reduce mixing heights this afternoon, keeping winds lower
than yesterday. Increasing dewpoints will keep relative humidity
slightly higher as well, which prevent us from reaching Red Flag
Warning criteria today. However, burning will still be discouraged
due to the borderline conditions.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
FIRE WEATHER...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is unfolding across
central Illinois...courtesy of high pressure anchored over the
southeast CONUS. The only potential fly-in-the-ointment is a small
cluster of convection that has developed ahead of a cold front
over northwest Missouri. These storms have been tracking to the E/NE
this morning and will continue to do so over the next few hours.
Most model guidance suggests the convection will remain W/NW of the
KILX CWA: however, the HRRR shows it potentially tracking across
locations northwest of the Illinois River by mid to late afternoon.
Based on current radar/satellite loops...will trend toward the HRRR
solution. As a result...will be maintaining slight chance PoPs for
showers across the NW CWA this afternoon. Elsewhere around the
area...am expecting partly to mostly sunny skies with high
temperatures climbing well into the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Gusty southwest winds will highlight the weather today. The winds
will be driven by a relatively tight pressure gradient across IL
from NW to SE, as our area remains wedged between high pressure in
the southeast states and a cold front extending from Lake Superior
to western Kansas. The cold front will sag closer to IL this
afternoon, with spotty showers or sprinkles possible after 21z/4 pm
for areas NW of the Illinois river. Moisture content of the
approaching airmass will be limited, so any rainfall amounts will be
very light. Despite increasing cloud cover this afternoon, high
temps will climb above yesterday, with readings in the mid 70s
toward Indiana and upper 70s in west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
High pressure has settled over the southern Atlantic Coast this
morning as south/southwesterly flow continues into the Midwest. The
warmer temperatures will continue through tomorrow. The overnight
forecast is mainly dry with the exception of areas along and NW of
the Illinois River Valley. A weak boundary to the NW will settle
into the Midwest providing a focus for some sct precip. The airmass
that the boundary is running into is fairly dry and precip will be
difficult to come by, but the models are persistent in developing a
few showers. Warm temps through Wednesday and dry...but a weak
boundary settling/developing in the region will allow for a more
northeasterly flow to winds through the end of Thursday and limit
the afternoon warming. Models previously kept the sct showers to the
north, however, recent runs are dropping the sfc wind convergence a
little further south. As of yet, leaving Thursday dry. The 00z GFS
came in with a thin line of showers associated with this front and
cannot rule out the possible addition of some low pops for Thursday,
but will hinge greatly on how much moisture can actually return to
the atmosphere over the next few days with the continued southerly
flow off of the Gulf Coast, and more southwesterly aloft from the
deeper moisture to the SW. Previously drier forecast is starting to
erode well before the weekend system, but a lot hinges on the
moisture advection from the SW, so the pops will remain low.
The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and through the Midwest
bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this
weekend...Friday night and Saturday. Have kept the mention of
thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday as the front
settles into the area with the max heat of the afternoon. Temps a
little more seasonal going into the work week with highs in the
lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. The main
aviation concern continues to be with the threat for LLWS early
this morning, especially from KSPI-KBMI. There will be about
30-35 knots of speed difference over a short distance aloft, with
winds at 1200-1800 feet from around 230 deg at 45 kts, and surface
winds at 180-210 direction at 10 to 15 kts. Further east at KDEC
and KCMI, it appears the winds will remain just below criteria
early this morning, so will leave the threat out at those two
sites. Winds will increase quickly this morning, with sustained
13-17kt and gusts to 25kt. Wind gusts will diminish with sunset,
but sustained speeds could remain 10-12kt overnight from the
south.
Clouds will begin to increase across northwest Illinois later
this afternoon as the cold front approaches. Cirrus and alto-cu
will be the primary cloud types late today and tonight as spotty
showers develop near PIA and BMI. No mention of VCSH was included
with this TAF issuance, due to the low chances.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Fire weather risk will remain a concern today, due to SW winds
gusting up to 20-25 mph, low relative humidity of 25-30% and dry
fuel moisture. Increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold
front will reduce mixing heights this afternoon, keeping winds lower
than yesterday. Increasing dewpoints will keep relative humidity
slightly higher as well, which prevent us from reaching Red Flag
Warning criteria today. However, burning will still be discouraged
due to the borderline conditions.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
FIRE WEATHER...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
SFC COLD FRONT EXITING FAR S/E CWA ATTIM AND HAVE REMOVED PCPN
CHCS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WATCHING
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN ELEVATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS IS DEPICTED PRETTY WELL ON NAM/RAP 305-310K SFCS.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SHOW THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT... AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXPANDED
PCPN CHCS... WITH MAIN CORRIDOR OF PCPN CHCS FAVORED SOUTH OF HWY 20 TO
HWY 34. DRYING NORTHERLY SUB-CLOUD LAYER FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW MEASURABLE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
THUS FOR NOW CAPPED POPS AT JUST 20 PERCENT... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP/PFM HAVE BEEN
SENT.
M^2
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WITH A LLJ RUNNING FROM TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RADAR HAS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.
18Z SFC DATA INDICATES THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NEAR KASX TO KSLN.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A TONGUE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING MAY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS PRIOR TO SUNSET WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF I-80.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BECOMING RAIN FREE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MAY SEE LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT FRIDAY MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS CYCLE.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...POOR OR BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
WITH COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THE MAIN CONCERN OF BEING TOO LIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS A RISK. MOST SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO UNDERPLAY THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY...SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY. THE DEWPOINTS MOVING NORTH IN PLAINS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
UNDERDONE SUPPORTING MORE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS IN MAY LOCATIONS WITH
.2 TO .8 INCH AMOUNTS SUGGESTED PER LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES. POOR
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM DAYS 6/7 AN ISSUE ALSO.
OVERVIEW...FORCING AND INITIALIZATION TODAY SUPPORTS A 75/25 BLEND
OF HI-RES ECMWF WITH GFS. FORCING LOOKS OK BUT AREA RAIN AMOUNTS AS
DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS SECTION MAY BE SEVERAL TENS OF A PERCENT TOO
LIGHT. LARGE SCALE CONVERGENT FLOW IN PAST SUPPORTS LARGE AREAS OF
RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD MORNING FOR LATER SHIFT TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS SW SECTIONS
MAYBE AFTER 4 AM LOCAL. MINS MID 40S NE WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MID 50S
SW SECTIONS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR LATER SHIFTS IN SW SECTIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING
SE WINDS.
FRIDAY...UPPED POPS WITH CATEGORICAL OVER PARTS OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
10 PERCENT OR MORE HIGHER POPS SUGGESTED FOR LATER SHIFTS. MOST RAIN
TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN MOSTLY PM
HOURS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST MOSTLY .2 TO .8 INCH
AMOUNTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. RISK OF ANY IS NIL DUE TO
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY AND SATURATED AIRMASS. WEAK TRIPLE POINT FORCING
ALSO SUPPORTS ENHANCE RAIN AMOUNTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF SHEARING FORCING IS OVERDONE
AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. PW VALUES MAY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 50S
NW TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD EXIT EARLY WITH
CLEARING AND BREEZY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. AREA HIGHS SHOULD
TEND TOWARD MOSTLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED BY 2 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES WITH MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE
NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65 AND LOWS POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH INTENSIFYING
TROUGH SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER POPS AND DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS WHEN TIMING
IS BETTER ASSESSED NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOISTURE AND FORCING SUPPORTS
AT LEAST MODERATE AMOUNTS MOST AREAS WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
BASED ON TRENDS...THIS RISK SHOULD BE KNOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
POOR CONFIDENCE ON HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT
WITH 50 AND 60S A COMPROMISE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S UNTIL COLD
FRONT PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME SPRINKLES
OR HIGH BASED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVE AND OVRNGT
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH OF SFC COLD
FRONT. NORTWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY 12Z THEN
EASTERLY BY 18Z THU.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER TO RE-INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN
EARLY THU MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN
RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
RESULTED IN SOME DECENT BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS
NOW GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY
PRECIP...HOWEVER MORE TIMELY HRRR AND RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST CURRENT
ELEVATED NE/KS PRECIP WILL OOZE INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE
SOLUTION...PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH BASED.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL PACKAGES...THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR
WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE APPEARS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH.
TRADITIONALLY...INSTABILITY LESSENS ONCE THE LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED IN COOLER DRIER AIR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDER...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO MENTION.
OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME WITH A
PARTIALLY SPLIT FORCING REGIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE H850 JET AND BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. NONE THE
LESS A PERIOD OF HIGH POP WILL STILL BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY DESPITE
THE REALIZATION THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A DECENT COOL OFF FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S BY SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKS PATTERN.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE STORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS MAY PHASE
INTO ONE LARGER STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEEPEN
A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONCURRENTLY WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL GULF COAST SYSTEM EDGING NORTHEAST
WITH TIME FROM TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE H500 FIELDS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE EURO HAS ALLOWED THE ENERGY OF THE LEADING WAVE TO DIG FARTHER
SOUTH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH
WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE NET RESULT IS EITHER A MORE NORTHERLY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS OR A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE PLAINS IF
THE EURO MODEL VERIFIES. THOUGH WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY...IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A
STRONG FALL SYSTEM NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. DETAILS OF DAILY
WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE BETTER PARSED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
WEDNESDAY. IF THE EURO WERE TO VERIFY...DAY TIME HIGHS BY THURSDAY
WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF COLD
RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NAM, GFS, and RAP were all in good agreement with another upper
level disturbance, located just west of Baja California at 00z
Tuesday, approaching southwest Kansas early tonight. A surface
trough of low pressure will be located from southeast Colorado
into south central Nebraska by late day. Latest NAM indicating
limited low level forcing along this front and 0-6km shear will be
20 knots or less. CAPE values near the surface trough is forecast
to be less than 600 J/Kg so at this time not overly excited about
late day convection, however unable to rule out a few isolated
storms in far western Kansas early this evening. The chance for
will improve during the overnight hours as moisture and improving
upper level lift develops ahead of an upper level trough that is
forecast to cross western Kansas tonight. At this time the better
forcing will be across far western Kansas early tonight and then
shift north after midnight.
The potential for afternoon cloud cover will make temperatures a
little tricky today, however am expecting a fair amount of sun so
will based highs on 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures. This is
close to the latest guidance of highs mainly in mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
On Wednesday moisture will continue to improve in the 850mb to
700mb level as another upper level disturbance approaches from the
southwest. Better difluent flow will be present aloft, especially
late day as a surface boundary drops south into southwest Kansas.
Given this will stay close to the previous forecast with
precipitation chances increasing late day and early Wednesday
night.
The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears to
occur across western and central Kansas late Wednesday night and
Thursday given the moisture forecast across western Kansas and the
location of the upper level jet streak east of the upper low that
will be crossing the four corners region on Thursday. Also given
the expected precipitation and cloud cover will continue to favor
lows near or above guidance while undercutting highs on Thursday.
Thursday night into Friday the upper low opens up as it lifts
northeast into the northern Plains. As this upper level trough
crosses western Kansas Thursday night the precipitation chances is
expected to taper off from west to east. There will then be a
slight chance for some showers or even an isolated thunderstorm
late Friday night as a weak upper level trough crosses the central
high plains.
The weekend will be mainly dry and cool with highs mainly in the
60s Both Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
VFR expected at KDDC, KGCK and KHYS through the TAF period. A
surface trough extending from near KHYS southwestward to near KGCK
is resulting in breezy southwest surface winds across the region.
A shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners region will
bring increasing high clouds tonight and widely scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms overnight and into Wednesday
morning with a low risk of directly impacting the terminals with
flight restrictions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 56 73 56 / 0 20 40 80
GCK 85 55 67 53 / 0 30 60 80
EHA 82 55 66 53 / 20 30 70 80
LBL 84 57 73 56 / 20 20 50 80
HYS 85 56 70 54 / 0 30 40 60
P28 83 60 77 59 / 20 10 30 70
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...GLD/024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NAM, GFS, and RAP were all in good agreement with another upper
level disturbance, located just west of Baja California at 00z
Tuesday, approaching southwest Kansas early tonight. A surface
trough of low pressure will be located from southeast Colorado
into south central Nebraska by late day. Latest NAM indicating
limited low level forcing along this front and 0-6km shear will be
20 knots or less. CAPE values near the surface trough is forecast
to be less than 600 J/Kg so at this time not overly excited about
late day convection, however unable to rule out a few isolated
storms in far western Kansas early this evening. The chance for
will improve during the overnight hours as moisture and improving
upper level lift develops ahead of an upper level trough that is
forecast to cross western Kansas tonight. At this time the better
forcing will be across far western Kansas early tonight and then
shift north after midnight.
The potential for afternoon cloud cover will make temperatures a
little tricky today, however am expecting a fair amount of sun so
will based highs on 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures. This is
close to the latest guidance of highs mainly in mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
On Wednesday moisture will continue to improve in the 850mb to
700mb level as another upper level disturbance approaches from the
southwest. Better difluent flow will be present aloft, especially
late day as a surface boundary drops south into southwest Kansas.
Given this will stay close to the previous forecast with
precipitation chances increasing late day and early Wednesday
night.
The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears to
occur across western and central Kansas late Wednesday night and
Thursday given the moisture forecast across western Kansas and the
location of the upper level jet streak east of the upper low that
will be crossing the four corners region on Thursday. Also given
the expected precipitation and cloud cover will continue to favor
lows near or above guidance while undercutting highs on Thursday.
Thursday night into Friday the upper low opens up as it lifts
northeast into the northern Plains. As this upper level trough
crosses western Kansas Thursday night the precipitation chances is
expected to taper off from west to east. There will then be a
slight chance for some showers or even an isolated thunderstorm
late Friday night as a weak upper level trough crosses the central
high plains.
The weekend will be mainly dry and cool with highs mainly in the
60s Both Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
A surface trough over extreme western KS will contribute to
different gradient wind speeds across the area. The more breezy
site with higher gusts to around 25 knots will likely be at DDC
this afternoon. If any showers or storms follow the weak shortwave
models in the NAM later this evening or tonight, conditions will
still be VFR and short lived; too low confidence for mention in
the terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 56 73 56 / 0 20 40 80
GCK 85 55 67 53 / 0 30 60 80
EHA 82 55 66 53 / 20 30 70 80
LBL 84 57 73 56 / 20 20 50 80
HYS 85 56 70 54 / 0 30 40 60
P28 83 60 77 59 / 20 10 30 70
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NAM, GFS, and RAP were all in good agreement with another upper
level disturbance, located just west of Baja California at 00z
Tuesday, approaching southwest Kansas early tonight. A surface
trough of low pressure will be located from southeast Colorado
into south central Nebraska by late day. Latest NAM indicating
limited low level forcing along this front and 0-6km shear will be
20 knots or less. CAPE values near the surface trough is forecast
to be less than 600 J/Kg so at this time not overly excited about
late day convection, however unable to rule out a few isolated
storms in far western Kansas early this evening. The chance for
will improve during the overnight hours as moisture and improving
upper level lift develops ahead of an upper level trough that is
forecast to cross western Kansas tonight. At this time the better
forcing will be across far western Kansas early tonight and then
shift north after midnight.
The potential for afternoon cloud cover will make temperatures a
little tricky today, however am expecting a fair amount of sun so
will based highs on 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures. This is
close to the latest guidance of highs mainly in mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
On Wednesday moisture will continue to improve in the 850mb to
700mb level as another upper level disturbance approaches from the
southwest. Better difluent flow will be present aloft, especially
late day as a surface boundary drops south into southwest Kansas.
Given this will stay close to the previous forecast with
precipitation chances increasing late day and early Wednesday
night.
The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears to
occur across western and central Kansas late Wednesday night and
Thursday given the moisture forecast across western Kansas and the
location of the upper level jet streak east of the upper low that
will be crossing the four corners region on Thursday. Also given
the expected precipitation and cloud cover will continue to favor
lows near or above guidance while undercutting highs on Thursday.
Thursday night into Friday the upper low opens up as it lifts
northeast into the northern Plains. As this upper level trough
crosses western Kansas Thursday night the precipitation chances is
expected to taper off from west to east. There will then be a
slight chance for some showers or even an isolated thunderstorm
late Friday night as a weak upper level trough crosses the central
high plains.
The weekend will be mainly dry and cool with highs mainly in the
60s Both Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
A surface trough of low pressure will slowly slide east into
western Kansas early this morning as an upper level disturbance
moves from the Texas Panhandle to central Kansas. 00Z BUFR
soundings indicating moisture ahead of this first upper level
system will be located above 6000 ft AGL and a period of VFR
ceilings are anticipated across western Kansas between 06z and 12z
Tuesday. Southerly winds at around 15 knots will continue
overnight with a few higher gusts possible at times. These
southerly winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot range and
begin to gradually veer to the southwest after 12z Tuesday as the
surface trough moves into western Kansas, especially at GCK and
HYS. Mid level moisture will begin to spread into southwest Kansas
after 00z Wednesday as the next upper level trough approaches
moves northeast across eastern New Mexico.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 57 73 56 / 0 30 50 70
GCK 86 56 67 53 / 0 30 60 70
EHA 83 56 66 53 / 0 40 60 70
LBL 85 59 73 56 / 0 40 60 70
HYS 86 57 70 54 / 0 30 50 60
P28 83 60 77 59 / 0 20 40 60
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
VALLEY TEMPS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LOWERED
THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR COLDER READINGS IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF RECENT
OBS...BUT WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH A
RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT TIGHTER AS
YOU GO NORTHWEST TOWARD MUCH LOWER PRESSURE. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE READINGS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS HAVE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S YIELDING HUMIDITIES
DOWN IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY
LIGHT...THE DEEP MIXING IS BRINGING DOWN SOME OCCASIONAL SOUTH
SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT AND BROAD RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL DRIFT PAST
EASTERN KENTUCKY AMID THOSE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN DOES
START TO CHANGE AFTER THE SHORT TERM WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO. AGAIN FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER
DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AGAIN...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE MODERATING HIGH DEPARTING THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER
THAN TODAY WITH SIMILAR LOW RH CONCERNS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE...AS WELL...RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW RH AND INCREASING WIND
CONCERN IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STILL A LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR
POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER. STILL
WATCHING FOR SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...BUT GIVEN
THE DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO WEDNESDAY...ANY WIND COULD POSE
A FIRE DANGER. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
A COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOISTURE
STARVED AND POSE NO THREAT TO OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SKY COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SOUTH WAVE CROSSING TEXAS
ON SATURDAY. WHILE ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THESE TWO WAVES WILL
INTERACT AS THEY MOVE EAST...IT DOES APPEAR THESE WAVES WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON BEST RAIN CHANCES COMING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED
UPWARDS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS. THE FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME AFTER THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER...AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
ANY FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...WILL AFFECT SOME DEEP VALLEY LOCATIONS
AROUND LARGE STREAMS NEAR DAWN...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST (1010 PM) RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ABOUT OVER AND THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE DRY AIR MOVING IN AND THIS
IS ALSO SEEN ON RAP MODEL HOURLY SOUNDING. AS A RESULT I HAVE
TAKEN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE A 20 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AS THE DRY AIR SURGES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE RAIN CHCS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRI
NIGHT. WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT FROST POTENTIAL FOR THU NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
NO REAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST. SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR W/SW ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LLJ CORE THAT WAS
SUPPORTING THEM BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
WE DO EXPECT THAT THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA
AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS ALL
INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING BY
00Z...AND THEN PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL A GOOD BET WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIN
CAPE PROFILES.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
SEE TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
OCTOBER. FROST IS LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
CWFA THU NIGHT WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRI AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
IN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LIFTING NE
FROM THE DESERT SW. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRI EVENING
WHEN THE BEST INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A SUNNY BUT COOLER DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO KEEP US PREDOMINATELY DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES... BUT AS USUAL THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE SPECIFICS AND
THE TIMING. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF HOLDS OFF THE BULK
OF THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND INDICATES A VERY WET WEDNESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW/OCCLUSION APPROACHES. A DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE GULF AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE GFS INDICATES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF A SHOWER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TILL
AROUND 03Z OR SO BUT THE RISK OF A SHOWER STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS TO LOW TO JUSTIFY PUTTING THAT IN THE
TAFS. SO EXPECT VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLEAR SKIES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT...MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT I WILL ADMIT IT IS
MARGINAL AS MOST OF OUR COATS BUOYS HAVE ONLY 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
AND WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT MUSKEGON. WE MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP THIS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
NO BIG ISSUES ON THE RIVERS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RAINS ON TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING DID NOT PRODUCE ANY ISSUES ON THE RIVERS
WITH THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS EVENING WILL
BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THIS WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WET IN GENERAL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW WEEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD TO
GRADUALLY HIGHER RIVER LEVELS...A CHANGE FROM RECENT TIMES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
914 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE
KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE
GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE
REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT
900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO
START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C
POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE
FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN
NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY.
THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY
POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL
AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING E THRU ONTARIO WL DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH
THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS
EVNG AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. SINCE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
RELATIVELY MOIST...LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL IMPACT ALL THE SITES. THESE
CLDS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT CMX GIVEN THE SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT AT THAT LOCATION. EARLIER ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AT IWD AND
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE NW FLOW AT SAW WL LIMIT THE TIME OF THE MVFR
CIGS AT THOSE SITES. AS THE WIND VEERS MORE TO THE N ON THU...MORE
MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT SAW IN THE AFTN WITH A GREATER UPSLOPE WIND.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT IWD THRU THE DAY AND AT CMX IN
THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC
BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245-249-250-
264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE
KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE
GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE
REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT
900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO
START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C
POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE
FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN
NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY.
THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY
POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL
AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING E THRU ONTARIO WL DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH
THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS
EVNG AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. SINCE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
RELATIVELY MOIST...LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL IMPACT ALL THE SITES. THESE
CLDS WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AT CMX GIVEN THE SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT AT THAT LOCATION. EARLIER ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AT IWD AND
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE NW FLOW AT SAW WL LIMIT THE TIME OF THE MVFR
CIGS AT THOSE SITES. AS THE WIND VEERS MORE TO THE N ON THU...MORE
MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT SAW IN THE AFTN WITH A GREATER UPSLOPE WIND.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT IWD THRU THE DAY AND AT CMX IN
THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC
BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-250-251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER
BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND
NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SCNTRL FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL
CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST
ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF
THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS
STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12
HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND
AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL
AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND
MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM THE W FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CROSSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF INCREASED WIND EVENTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT E UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN OR LESS AT 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE W
HALF...WITH 1IN VALUES EXITING FAR E. NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z
AND THE DRAGGING COLD FRONT EXITS JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS. BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE E OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z
THURSDAY...PROLONGING THE WNW WINDS A BIT LONGER. 850MB TEMPS OF
-1 TO -3C THURSDAY MORNING WITH THESE UPSLOPE/LAKESHORE CONVERGENT
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL
SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT E AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH AS A DEEPENING LOW NEARS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.1
TO 0.3IN OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...STILL WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
FALLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE 500MB TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS MN AT 12Z SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER
BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY
SHIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING STRATUS WHICH COULD BRING AN HOUR OF MVFR
CIGS TO KSAW FROM 18-19Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE LOWER CIGS (POSSIBLY
TO LIFR) AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SNEAK INTO KIWD LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD (16-18Z) AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE WSW
DIRECTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-
30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE
LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE
WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER
BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND
NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SCNTRL FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL
CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST
ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF
THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS
STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12
HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND
AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL
AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND
MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW
CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY
DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK
END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO
THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR
-2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH
WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB
TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW
SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER
THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT
BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS
ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS
STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES
INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB.
AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A
DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING
SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES
INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND
THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING STRATUS WHICH COULD BRING AN HOUR OF MVFR
CIGS TO KSAW FROM 18-19Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE LOWER CIGS (POSSIBLY
TO LIFR) AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SNEAK INTO KIWD LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD (16-18Z) AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE WSW
DIRECTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-
30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE
LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE
WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NRN QUEBEC. TO THE W...A TROF IS OVER
THE ROCKIES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME RATHER VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO WED NIGHT. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING S ACROSS
UPPER MI ATTM. BRISK N TO NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT IS
CONFINED TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR...AND A BKN NARROW BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME RADAR RETURNS IS LURKING JUST S AND
SW OF MENOMINEE.
INITIALLY TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW -SHRA COULD BRUSH
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA. PER LATEST RAP...LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE OF 850MB FLOW APPEAR TO BE AIDING THE
MID CLOUD/RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. HRRR RUNS
OVERNIGHT HAVE CONSITENTLY INDICATED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE
LOWER LEVELS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD -SHRA FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...A COOL NE FLOW LOCKS IN TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...WITH POST FRONTAL
STRATOCU REMAINING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR AND MOVING SSE...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU. OTHERWISE...AFTER A
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY START...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE W AND SW. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND NE
WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
AND NCNTRL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA
TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
ISENTROPICALLY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST BETTER MOIST ASCENT TO THE
SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. AS
A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE 2 MAIN AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN WILL SPLIT
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PCPN FIELDS
FROM THE ALL THE AVBL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON
POPS TONIGHT TO SCHC WITH THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CNTRL FCST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW
CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY
DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK
END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO
THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR
-2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH
WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB
TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW
SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER
THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT
BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS
ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS
STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES
INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB.
AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A
DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING
SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES
INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND
THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING STRATUS WHICH COULD BRING AN HOUR OF MVFR
CIGS TO KSAW FROM 18-19Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE LOWER CIGS (POSSIBLY
TO LIFR) AT KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SNEAK INTO KIWD LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD (16-18Z) AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE WSW
DIRECTION. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BRISK NE WINDS
IN THE 15-30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL
AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW HRS
OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND THEN OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE WED EVENING. FOR
NOW...HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH GIVEN THIS NEW MODEL TREND FOR
STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON
THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NRN QUEBEC. TO THE W...A TROF IS OVER
THE ROCKIES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME RATHER VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO WED NIGHT. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING S ACROSS
UPPER MI ATTM. BRISK N TO NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT IS
CONFINED TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR...AND A BKN NARROW BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME RADAR RETURNS IS LURKING JUST S AND
SW OF MENOMINEE.
INITIALLY TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW -SHRA COULD BRUSH
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA. PER LATEST RAP...LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE OF 850MB FLOW APPEAR TO BE AIDING THE
MID CLOUD/RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. HRRR RUNS
OVERNIGHT HAVE CONSITENTLY INDICATED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE
LOWER LEVELS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD -SHRA FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...A COOL NE FLOW LOCKS IN TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...WITH POST FRONTAL
STRATOCU REMAINING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR AND MOVING SSE...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU. OTHERWISE...AFTER A
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY START...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE W AND SW. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND NE
WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
AND NCNTRL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA
TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
ISENTROPICALLY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST BETTER MOIST ASCENT TO THE
SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. AS
A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE 2 MAIN AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN WILL SPLIT
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PCPN FIELDS
FROM THE ALL THE AVBL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON
POPS TONIGHT TO SCHC WITH THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CNTRL FCST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW
CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY
DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK
END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO
THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR
-2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH
WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB
TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW
SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER
THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT
BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS
ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS
STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES
INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB.
AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A
DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING
SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES
INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND
THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. WITH AN UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT...KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS FALL TO MVFR VERY
NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE LOWER CIGS AT KSAW DUE TO
UPSLOPE FLOW ORIGINATING OFF THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BRISK NE WINDS
IN THE 15-30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL
AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW HRS
OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND THEN OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE WED EVENING. FOR
NOW...HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH GIVEN THIS NEW MODEL TREND FOR
STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON
THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NRN QUEBEC. TO THE W...A TROF IS OVER
THE ROCKIES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. THE NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME RATHER VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONTARIO WED NIGHT. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP HUDSON BAY MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING S ACROSS
UPPER MI ATTM. BRISK N TO NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM
NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT IS
CONFINED TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR...AND A BKN NARROW BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRODUCING SOME RADAR RETURNS IS LURKING JUST S AND
SW OF MENOMINEE.
INITIALLY TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW -SHRA COULD BRUSH
THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA. PER LATEST RAP...LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE OF 850MB FLOW APPEAR TO BE AIDING THE
MID CLOUD/RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY S AND SW OF MENOMINEE. HRRR RUNS
OVERNIGHT HAVE CONSITENTLY INDICATED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE THERE IS STILL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE
LOWER LEVELS PER 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD -SHRA FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...A COOL NE FLOW LOCKS IN TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...WITH POST FRONTAL
STRATOCU REMAINING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FAR AND MOVING SSE...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME SCT STRATOCU. OTHERWISE...AFTER A
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY START...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE W AND SW. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND NE
WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
AND NCNTRL TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA
TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
ISENTROPICALLY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST BETTER MOIST ASCENT TO THE
SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. AS
A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE 2 MAIN AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN WILL SPLIT
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE PCPN FIELDS
FROM THE ALL THE AVBL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON
POPS TONIGHT TO SCHC WITH THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CNTRL FCST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
COOLER AIR RETURNS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA...SOUTHWARD INTO MN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER PENINSULA. AS THE LOW CENTER SLIDES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW
CENTER...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
QCONV...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY
DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND IT ON
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUICK
END TO THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WINDS AT 925MB TO 900MB ARE RIGHT AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS...AGAIN WITH CAA...IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR THESE STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH CAA INTO
THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO NEAR
-2C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH
WILL AT A MINIMUM KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS 850MB
TEMPS SLOWLY START TO REBOUND OVER THE EAST AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART THROUGH QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW
SLIDING FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A RAINY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. ANOTHER
THING TO NOTE...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IS THAT
BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS
ACTS TO INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS
STAGGERED BACK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW DOES
INTENSIFY AS PROGGED...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON CAA...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM 850MB.
AGAIN THIS IS A WAYS OUT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE GFS/EC BOTH AGREE ON A
DECENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING
SETTLING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
AND POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SLIDES
INTO THE AREA. AT THE TIME BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO THINGS CAN DEFINITELY CHANGE AND
THE EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE N TO NE
WIND BEHIND FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE ESE...RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS AT SAW BY LATE EVENING AND CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR MVFR AT CMX
AND IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BRISK NE WINDS
IN THE 15-30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL
AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW HRS
OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND THEN OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE WED EVENING. FOR
NOW...HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH GIVEN THIS NEW MODEL TREND FOR
STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON
THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
647 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015
Weak "cold" front will slowly move south and eastward through
tonight before stalling somewhere near the I-70 corridor in
Missouri. Front will struggle to make too much southward progress
across the area due to amplified mid/upper level ridge axis across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. Threat of precipitation looks
meager...but did keep schc PoPs mainly across portions of northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois through the late evening hours in
close proximity to aforementioned sfc boundary and where some weak
low-level warm/moist advection will be occurring. Also added
mention of thunder with activity due to a MUCAPE axis of instability
progged by NWP guidance and what occurred last night. Temperatures
tonight will also be mild for mid/late October standards. Lows will
range from the mid 50s to low 60s with the warmest minimums forecast
along and just to the south of expected cold frontal boundary
position by 1200 UTC Thursday.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015
(Thursday - Saturday)
Cold front will move back northward during the day on Thursday as
leeside cyclogenesis commences. This frontal boundary then appears
to wash out fairly quickly by Thursday night. Dry weather appears
likely on Thursday and most of Thursday night ahead of a cold front
moving in from the west. The last of the well above normal
temperatures will be on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s across
the northern tier of the CWA to near 80 degrees along and south of I-
70. Should not be as warm tomorrow as today due to more anticipated
cloud cover and sfc winds from the southeast instead of
west/southwest.
Still appears what should be the most widespread precipitation event
going back many many weeks to occur predominantly on Friday/Friday
night. Boosted PoPs roughly ~10% across the CWA on Friday as
ingredient for high likelihoods of precipitation are depicted by NWP
guidance including UL diffluence...UL jet support...and low-level
warm/moist advection ahead of cold front. Highest PoPs/categoricals
remain across western sections of the area. Chances of precipitation
wane a bit further to the south and mainly east late Friday and
Friday night as precipitation outruns its support aloft and
therefore would expect a bit less coverage and QPF.
Cooler weather...though still near seasonal norms for late
October...appear likely on Saturday. Best chances of showers will be
across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois near
slowly progressing cold front...RER of UL jet streak...and weak
DCPVA ahead of southern Plains secondary vort maxima.
(Sunday - Wednesday)
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will end this weekend and take us into the
next work week. Result should be near normal temperatures with
chances of rain increasing in the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame as
the next trough digs out of the Rockies.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015
No major changes to going TAF trends. Latest synoptic guidance
(including the last several RAP runs) is still indicating that
the frontal boundary will ooze south across northern sections of
the FA overnight, stall out around the I-70 corridor by daybreak,
and then begin to retreat northward by late in the forecast
period. RAP and GFS forecast soundings are also suggesting
saturation in the 800-850mb layer as the front works south, which should
yield low end VFR cigs at most locations later tonight and into
Thursday morning. Consensus of guidance also suggests current shower
activity nw MO/se NE/ne KS will attempt to spread east with time,
so have maintained mention of VCSH at KUIN during the predawn
hours.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are forecast throughout the
period, with high level cirrus this evening giving way to VFR
cigs 5-6kft late tonight and into Thursday morning. Light south-
southwest winds this evening will becoming light and variable late
tonight and into Thursday morning as frontal boundary works into
and then stalls over the Metro area.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 64 80 61 73 / 10 10 5 60
Quincy 55 73 56 70 / 20 10 10 70
Columbia 58 79 59 69 / 10 10 20 80
Jefferson City 60 80 59 69 / 10 10 20 90
Salem 58 79 56 76 / 5 10 5 30
Farmington 57 78 55 71 / 5 5 5 60
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
903 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO RED LODGE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS
BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND DECREASING. HRRR TREND ADVERTISING A
CONTINUING OF THE DISSIPATION TREND...BUT AT A MUCH MORE
ACCELERATED PACE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. HAVE RAISED POPS
A LITTLE MORE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING
AND PUSHED POPS FARTHER EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF
ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED. DRYING TREND FOR TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMATION. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA ON MONDAY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED LEAVING GENERALLY A LARGE AREA OF
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PORTION OF
THE LOW DID MOVE NORTH INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA LAST
EVENING PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATED NORTH
AND WEST AROUND THIS LOW BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS LAST EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY. RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-HARDIN- FORSYTH
LINE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE AREA OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS PRECIP FAIRLY GOOD SINCE LAST
EVENING AND DOES PROG THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-HARDIN LINE FOR THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY GOOD WITH THE PRECIP AND HAS IT
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND BECOMMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHIFTING THE POPS SOUTH AND
EAST AND LOWERING THEM TO MORE OF A HIGH CHANCE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AREAS OF CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN
DUIRNG THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL OPEN AND LIFT UP THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO OUR FAR
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST A SIMILAR
TRACK SO WITH IMPROVED CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. PWAT PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ENERGY WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PER TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECTING PCPN AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH BUT WE COULD
SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER IF ASCENT LASTS LONG
ENOUGH...BUT THIS WAVE WILL BE COMPETING WITH DRIER WEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SPEAKING OF WHICH...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS STILL
TRYING TO RESOLVE HOW MUCH PHASING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE PACIFIC
WAVE AND SOUTHWESTERN TROF...SO STRESS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
PCPN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. AFTER A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL AND IN THE 50S
FRIDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SCENARIO WHICH WOULD KEEP NW
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA. THOUGH THEY ARE SIMILAR IN A GENERAL SENSE
THE MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A CANADIAN
CLIPPER AND/OR OVERRUNNING PACIFIC MOISTURE. AFTER WHAT CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SATURDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SOME LIGHT PCPN SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS IS FOR BUILDING HEIGHTS
AND A DRY MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE NW FLOW IS
CONFLUENT AND SUPPORTS SFC RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...AM EXPECTING
COOLER NORTH TO EAST WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY
BEING THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS BY SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S...BUT WITH ENOUGH PUSH OF COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WE MIGHT BE COOLER THAN THAT. IT IS LATE OCTOBER
AFTER ALL.
STILL LOOKING FOR THE FIRST FREEZE AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT AND IT
COULD HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST FIRST FREEZE ON RECORD OCCURRED
ON OCTOBER 27TH. JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN
ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMLS-K4BQ THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED IN
RAIN/SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON...AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FORMING
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE COMMON TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KBIL. JKL/TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 039/062 042/066 041/058 035/057 033/052 033/058
6/W 10/U 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 21/B
LVM 054 034/065 038/065 033/056 030/057 030/054 030/061
4/W 10/U 01/U 22/W 21/B 12/W 21/B
HDN 064 035/065 037/068 038/060 032/060 031/055 030/061
8/W 10/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 21/B
MLS 063 036/063 037/068 041/058 036/058 033/054 032/059
5/W 10/U 01/U 51/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 063 034/062 040/067 040/058 034/058 031/053 031/059
4/W 10/U 02/W 51/N 11/B 11/B 21/B
BHK 061 033/061 035/065 041/056 033/056 030/052 029/055
3/W 10/U 01/B 64/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 060 037/063 039/066 039/057 033/057 030/054 030/059
4/W 20/U 01/B 32/W 21/B 12/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1124 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA
ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS NOT MUCH IS GOING ON EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY. STARTING TO
SEE SOME CELLS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE, CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOTICEABLE ON MOST OF THE TERRAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL SEE HOW THESE MATERIALIZE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY MORE UPDATES BETWEEN NOW AND THE
FINAL AFTERNOON FORECAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
939 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, QPF, SKY COVER, AND TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
WILL LIMIT WARMING, SO LOWERED EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES. THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CLARK COUNTY
THAT WE MAY REALIZE OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF MIDDLE 70S FOR LAS
VEGAS, BUT CURRENT BAND OF CLOUDS DRAPED OVER THE VALLEY WILL SLOW
THAT PROCESS. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, AS SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS (PERHAPS A STORM) MAY GET IN HERE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, WEATHER, SKY COVER, AND QPF, MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY, NEAR WIKIEUP. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
LOOKS GOOD, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA
OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN
MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.
TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS
EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE
COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE
FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE
COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATES...PADDOCK
PREV DISCUSSION...WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
939 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA
ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, QPF, SKY COVER, AND TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
WILL LIMIT WARMING, SO LOWERED EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES. THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CLARK COUNTY
THAT WE MAY REALIZE OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF MIDDLE 70S FOR LAS
VEGAS, BUT CURRENT BAND OF CLOUDS DRAPED OVER THE VALLEY WILL SLOW
THAT PROCESS. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, AS SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS (PERHAPS A STORM) MAY GET IN HERE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, WEATHER, SKY COVER, AND QPF, MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY, NEAR WIKIEUP. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
LOOKS GOOD, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA
OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN
MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.
TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS
EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE
COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE
FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE
COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATES...PADDOCK
PREV DISCUSSION...WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA
ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS, WEATHER, SKY COVER, AND QPF,
MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY, NEAR WIKIEUP. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY LOOKS GOOD, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA
OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN
MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.
TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS
EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE
COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE
FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE
COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PADDOCK
PREV DISCUSSION...WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
232 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED NEAR YUMA
ARIZONA TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND NEARBY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA
OF UPWARD FORCING AND CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z-07Z WHICH THEN
MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE THEY WEAKENED DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. STILL...MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.
TODAY...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS OR EVEN A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WOULD THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION WESTWARD OUT OF
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...DISSIPATING CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM LAS VEGAS
EAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WEST IN THE AS ANOTHER AS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOHAVE
COUNTY...AND WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FAVOR A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR POSSIBLY AND ISOLATED TS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
12Z TAF. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 8K FEET. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT AT
LEAST SHRA AND POSSIBLY TS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST...THROUGH THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE
FROM KELY-KDRA-KNXP LINE. WINDS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A NORTH DIRECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
20-30 KTS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MOHAVE
COUNTY WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
942 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 930 PM...A WARM FRONT IS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH THIS
FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. IT IS PRETTY
MUCH DRY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...BUT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH A LLJ FORMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THIS
INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THESE
SHOWERS LIKELY TO AN HOUR OR TWO OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
THIS JET WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS. THE JET WILL ALSO
BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE
ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES UPSTREAM SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WHILE ITS ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR ON NORTHWEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
UNDERNEATH IT. INITIALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE FAIRLY THIN. MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES
TOWARD MORNING...SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT TRANSPIRATION IS LOWER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS PAST
RECENT POST FRONTAL CLEAR SKY EVENTS HAVE SHOWN...WIDESPREAD FOG IS
BECOMING A LITTLE LESS COMMONPLACE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PERFECT FALL DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A
RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR NEAR 50...BUT THIS IS ONLY ABOUT
5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
WICKED DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR .2
INCH...NEAR DAILY MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS TYPE OF
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...EXPECT JUST CLEAR SKIES...NO CIRRUS...NO
STRATOCU...NOTHING BUT BLUE SKY.
THIS WILL NOT LAST HOWEVER...AS AN INCREASINGLY STRONG JET BEGINS TO
FORM OVER TX AND STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL THEREFORE
FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY AS THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT OF INTEREST WILL BE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE CURRENT CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEING
PICKED UP BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET AND THE TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MEASURABLE RAIN...STARTING LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN NY...AND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN
NY...AND BRIEFLY LAGGING INTO PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE EXPECT A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THEN
A SOAKING RAIN IS STARTING TO LOOK PROBABLE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM BOTH SIDES OF
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME TROPICAL REMNANTS THROWN IN. THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY NOTE
THAT RAIN IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLOUDY SKIES BUT CIGS IN THE 6-10K RANGE.
A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LLWS BETWEEN 04Z
AND 14Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON MOST OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE HEADLINES WERE ADDED TO THE UPPER
NIAGARA RIVER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AS OUTLINED BELOW.
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
747 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT 730
PM...SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE ALREADY LIFTED TO THE NORTH
WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES EXPECTED THROUGH 11 PM.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET FORMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET HAVE REACHED
SE MICHIGAN...AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE BOTH BRING
THIS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH
THIS LIKELY TO BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE
UPDATE JUST TIGHTENING UP THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
THIS JET WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS. THE JET WILL ALSO
BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ALONG
WITH THE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WHILE ITS ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT AND PRECIP WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
UNDERNEATH IT. INITIALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE FAIRLY THIN. MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES
TOWARD MORNING...SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT TRANSPIRATION IS LOWER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS PAST
RECENT POST FRONTAL CLEAR SKY EVENTS HAVE SHOWN...WIDESPREAD FOG IS
BECOMING A LITTLE LESS COMMONPLACE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PERFECT FALL DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A
RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR NEAR 50...BUT THIS IS ONLY ABOUT
5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
WICKED DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR .2
INCH...NEAR DAILY MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS TYPE OF
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...EXPECT JUST CLEAR SKIES...NO CIRRUS...NO
STRATOCU...NOTHING BUT BLUE SKY.
THIS WILL NOT LAST HOWEVER...AS AN INCREASINGLY STRONG JET BEGINS TO
FORM OVER TX AND STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL THEREFORE
FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY AS THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT OF INTEREST WILL BE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE CURRENT CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEING
PICKED UP BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET AND THE TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MEASURABLE RAIN...STARTING LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN NY...AND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN
NY...AND BRIEFLY LAGGING INTO PART OF SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE EXPECT A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THEN
A SOAKING RAIN IS STARTING TO LOOK PROBABLE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM BOTH SIDES OF
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME TROPICAL REMNANTS THROWN IN. THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY NOTE
THAT RAIN IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLOUDY SKIES BUT CIGS IN THE 6-10K RANGE.
A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LLWS BETWEEN 04Z
AND 14Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON MOST OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE HEADLINES WERE ADDED TO THE UPPER
NIAGARA RIVER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AS OUTLINED BELOW.
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
744 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS
MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA
INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE
CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING
IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE
ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE
THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY
ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76-
80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF
THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF
THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING
ANY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND DIVERTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORT NORTH OF THE AREA AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS SUCH...A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
TOPPING OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
NELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT COULD SUPPORT BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY: MEAN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE. ANY
MORNING STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT GIVEN PROMINENT MID-LEVEL INVERSION PER LATEST NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MODULATE DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT THE
VERY LEAST RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS
RANGING FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE GULF
REMAINS BLOCKED...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
BETTER WITH PWATS INCREASING TO ~1.5" WITH MODELS ALSO INDICATING
WEAK DPVA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING TO 1380-1385M AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S EAST. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE IN THE 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG +1030MB SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING
ALOFT...UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE..MAINLY EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI. MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TWO SITES...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OUT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL OUT THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
.
-GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLIP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...CLEAR AND COLD REMAINS THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OVERALL HIGHER THAN AT THIS
POINT LAST NIGHT BUT WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF COOLING TO GO. MAY
RE-EVALUATE FROST ADVISORY AS NIGHT GOES ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING EXTENDING FROM NORFOLK VA TO AUGUSTA GA. THIS HIGH SHOULD
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BROAD AREA OF WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT CALM WINDS AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT ALL SITES. OUR
LOCAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOL SHOWS THE "POCOSIN" COLD SPOTS
SHOULD RUN A GOOD 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN NEARBY AREAS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS AROUND 30 POSSIBLE IN THE GREEN SWAMP...BLADEN LAKES STATE
FOREST...AND THE ANGOLA BAY GAMELAND ON THE PENDER-DUPLIN COUNTY
LINE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION. A SUBTLE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE IS ACTUALLY TRAVERSING THE CAROLINAS NOW BUT WILL HAVE
NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. AS THE 850 MB HIGH
SCOOTS OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WINDS AT THAT LEVEL SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE COAST...BUT THIS PROCESS APPEARS IT WILL PROCEED QUITE SLOWLY
AND I HAVE DELAYED ANY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FROST ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MANY SITES SINCE SUNSET.
WHILE THIS IS A PAPER-THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LIKELY ONLY EXTENDING
ONE OR TWO HUNDRED FEET VERTICALLY...IT MAY HAVE THE INTERESTING
EFFECT OF CREATING DEW ON ELEVATED OBJECTS LATE THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL THEN FREEZE LATE TONIGHT AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL TO
33-36. YOU MIGHT WANT TO PLAN ON SPENDING A FEW EXTRA MINUTES TO
SCRAPE THROUGH THIS LAYER OF ICE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD IN THE
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE CHILLY AIRMASS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
DURING TUE. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WITH THE AXIS N OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHER TEMPS AND HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT WHICH WILL INCREASE DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY LINGER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE FOR NOW...BUT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
SPOTTY AND LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE COAST TUE AND
THROUGHOUT ON WED. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT
THE COAST TUE AND THEN THROUGHOUT ON WED.
HIGHS TUE WILL BE NEAR 70...MID 70S ON WED. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. LOWS WED NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE BRIEF EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA PUSHES A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH BACK TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
THE REGION WILL SEE A RATHER QUICK REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE GULF RIDGE GETS WORKED OVER SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE NOW OPEN
WAVE...PREVIOUS SOUTHWEST SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTING AT A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAYBE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN INTACT WITH
WARM READINGS THURSDAY FALLING BACK BRIEFLY SATURDAY THEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RECOVERY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH
DECOUPLING EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH CALM OR NEAR CALM WINDS. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FOG...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IN LOW SPOTS. A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD PRODUCE SOME
CU/STRATA CU AFTER DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WED/THU THAT
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS:
1031 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. LATEST
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH
MOST ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH WINDS IN THE 12-16 KNOT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. THE 21Z RUC WAS NOT USED SINCE ITS OVERNIGHT WINDS WERE
MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. BUOY REPORTS AT 6 PM SHOWED
SEAS HAVE DECAYED AWAY TO 2-4 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES OF SHORE...WITH
ANY 4-FOOT SEAS LIKELY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS
AND CAPE ROMAIN. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS AROUND 6 SECONDS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING TUE
AND THEN RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS TUE VEERING TO A MORE
ENE TO E DIRECTION TUE NIGHT WITH A SIMILAR DIRECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELDS
THURSDAY AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS FROM THE NORTH
DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-
15 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
BE A FEW HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN EMBEDDED SURGE.
SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-4 FEET WITH A FEW FIVE FOOTERS DEVELOPING WITH THE
SURGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/JDW
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...99/REK/RJD/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AS OF 2330 UTC...THE OCCLUDING FRONT WAS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND STRATUS IN
TRAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH
RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE HRRR THROUGH ITS 22
UTC ITERATION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES.
TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT...DECENT
SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS...AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD
SUPPORT GUST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND
LIGHT WINDS WEST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
AFTER LOWS TONIGHT OF 35 NORTHWEST TO 45 SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
A COLORADO LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF
THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. THE 12 UTC GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL HAVE THE
CENTER TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER BY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE OFF TO THE EAST
AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY
TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY AND 20S/30S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN STRATUS
BEHIND AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AREA
WIDE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NO MAJOR CHANCES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. CONTINUED USING A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF HRRR
ITERATIONS...MOST CURRENTLY THROUGH ITS 04 UTC RUN...FOR
PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AS IT SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP LATEST RADAR
OBSERVATIONS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND
BLENDED TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH ITS
01 UTC RUN. THE BOWMAN ARB RADAR THROUGH 0220 UTC IS SHOWING THE
FIRST FEW RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE NOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS LIGHT RAIN
REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AS OF 23 UTC THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...TRANSITIONING INTO A SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS ENERGY WITHIN AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WILL BREAK DOWN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AROUND 02-04 UTC AND LIFTING
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES BY AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY. THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER FAR SOUTHWEST.
TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS
SHOWER CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WHERE THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
COINCIDE...WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS DRY. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS NORTH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH 60S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S IN THE JAMES VALLEY.
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S.
WARMER ON THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
GULF MOISTURE ALSO MOVING NORTH...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TAKES HOLD. AS OF NOW THE WEEKEND LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S.
THE MODELS HINT AT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN ON
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
STATE WILL DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER
KDIK/KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT...WHEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KISN/KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL STAY DRY IN
MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. HARD TO SEE
MORE THAN A T IN ANY AREA GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING
OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD
INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY.
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY
SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
/10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH
OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND
INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM.
A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS
WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED
TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN
TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW
TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM
220-260.
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL STAY DRY IN
MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. HARD TO SEE
MORE THAN A T IN ANY AREA GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING
OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD
INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY.
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY
SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
/10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE WILL
SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 10KFT WITH SCT CI OVER THE SRN 2/3 WITH
BASES 15-25KFT AGL. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH
OF THE PA/NY BORDER. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRES
MOVG THRU SERN CANADA WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE
AIRSPACE ESP NRN SITES...WITH LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM
220-260.
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FROST THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30 TO MID 40S CURRENTLY AT 2 AM.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE... THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT WARMER TOMORROW MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE THIS WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVER THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 44 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 42 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 41 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 37 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF A FRONT THAT STRETCH ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE TREND IN
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO CONTINUE TO BRING THE
ACTIVITY OVER IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST AND JOINING UP WITH THE
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER ILLINOIS. THE 20.17Z RUN OF THE HRRR
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT THAT
THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS COULD GET BRUSHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL CARRY SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AND START TO MOVE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AND STARTS TO
EJECT TOWARD THE AREA. THE 20.12Z GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO START
BRINGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA AND WOULD INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 20.12Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS AND HOLDS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
BACK INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT THE MODELS HAVE A BIAS OF BEING TOO QUICK TO EJECT OUT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TRENDS
AND WILL START TO BRING THE RAIN CHANCES IN FRIDAY. THE GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PAST THE AREA
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS TRACK...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION
IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE CONCERN WITH THIS IS WHETHER THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA TO GET AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS OR IF THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
BRANCHES WITH ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER INTO THE AREA LIKE THE
ECMWF. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD CONVERGENCE
OVER THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXIS AS THIS MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS WELL. SOME LINGERING
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS.
THE FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO HAVING A SLIGHT
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO IT. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SEVERAL
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
AND COULD START TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE CERTAINLY
DO NOT LOOK LIKE BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS AT THIS POINT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
IMPACT TO THE TAFS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THIS LOW FROM FARIBAULT
MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY WISCONSIN. NORTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS WARMER
THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 10.20Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20.21Z AND
21.03Z. THE ARW...NMM...AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT
EVEN HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
COMPARING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO THE GRIDDED MODEL VALUES...
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE GRIDDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING
TOO COLD. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW US TO MIX UP TO
900 MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND BEING VERY DRY DUE TO THE
LACK OF RAIN DURING THE PAST MONTH...EXPECT THE THERE WILL BE A
SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 900 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR TODAY. MOST
PLACES HAVE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
OCCURRED IN 1953...2000...OR 2003.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...NOT
SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...SO LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO 20 PERCENT.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO GULF OF
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON /THIS IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND
THEN QUICKLY DECLINES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY MISS OUR AREA.
EVEN IF WE DID SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY
ISSUES BECAUSE IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND THAT IT HAS BEEN DRY
SO LONG.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
IMPACT TO THE TAFS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THIS LOW FROM FARIBAULT
MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY WISCONSIN. NORTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS WARMER
THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 10.20Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20.21Z AND
21.03Z. THE ARW...NMM...AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT
EVEN HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
COMPARING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO THE GRIDDED MODEL VALUES...
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE GRIDDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING
TOO COLD. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW US TO MIX UP TO
900 MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND BEING VERY DRY DUE TO THE
LACK OF RAIN DURING THE PAST MONTH...EXPECT THE THERE WILL BE A
SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 900 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR TODAY. MOST
PLACES HAVE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
OCCURRED IN 1953...2000...OR 2003.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...NOT
SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...SO LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO 20 PERCENT.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO GULF OF
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON /THIS IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND
THEN QUICKLY DECLINES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY MISS OUR AREA.
EVEN IF WE DID SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY
ISSUES BECAUSE IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND THAT IT HAS BEEN DRY
SO LONG.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO EASTERN WI CONTINUES TO SPARK A FEW -SHRA FROM CENTRAL WI
EASTWARD. WEAK INSTABILITY/WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WERE HELPING THAT
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY TRIGGER THE -SHRA. MOST MESO MODELS CONTINUE
SOME -SHRA THROUGH THE DAY TO THE EAST. TO THE SOUTH...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS TRIGGERING -SHRA/TS OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WITH
THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MESO MODELS TRACK THIS ACROSS EASTERN
IA AND OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING...SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
327 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THIS LOW FROM FARIBAULT
MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY WISCONSIN. NORTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS WARMER
THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 10.20Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ELEVATED CAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20.21Z AND
21.03Z. THE ARW...NMM...AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT
EVEN HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
COMPARING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO THE GRIDDED MODEL VALUES...
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. THE GRIDDED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING
TOO COLD. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW US TO MIX UP TO
900 MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND BEING VERY DRY DUE TO THE
LACK OF RAIN DURING THE PAST MONTH...EXPECT THE THERE WILL BE A
SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 900 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR TODAY. MOST
PLACES HAVE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
OCCURRED IN 1953...2000...OR 2003.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...NOT
SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...SO LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO 20 PERCENT.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO GULF OF
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON /THIS IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/...AND
THEN QUICKLY DECLINES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING TO
OUR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY MISS OUR AREA.
EVEN IF WE DID SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IT SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY
ISSUES BECAUSE IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND THAT IT HAS BEEN DRY
SO LONG.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKER HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BAND OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
11-13KFT RANGE FOR A TIME AT BOTH SITES THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO HOLD
JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
NORTHWARD EXTENT AS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR THOSE SHOWERS TO
WORK A BIT FARTHER NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1142 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES
OVER THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SPANISH PEAKS. LIKELY SEEING SOME
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE CULEBRA RANGE AND SPANISH PEAKS...BUT
HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT SO CURRENT HEADLINES
LOOK ON TARGET. STILL LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A LULL THU MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
CO. LATEST NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN ITS POOR PERFORMANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT
NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE SOLUTION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS
REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES
PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF
THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH
VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE
WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE
OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO. AS SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD EXPECT CIGS TO DROP FOR
KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS...WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR
CATEGORY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VIS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE.
MTNS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN WIDESPREAD -RA/SN. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
429 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST
MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH
PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND
OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO
LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING
LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE
LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN
SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER
MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE
MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR
THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO
UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY
SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER
30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS
LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE
MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM
VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* NONE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT AND
WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KT AS THE
BECOME EASTERLY THURSDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SELY
WIND BECOMING SWLY. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY. OTRW...VFR. SWLY WINDS BECMG NWLY.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. LGT/VRBL WIND BECMG ELY.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL. ELY WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. ELY WIND.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST
MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH
PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND
OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO
LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING
LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE
LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN
SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER
MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE
MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR
THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO
UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY
SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER
30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS
LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE
MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM
VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT AND
WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING BELOW 10 KT AS THE
BECOME EASTERLY THURSDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SELY
WIND BECOMING SWLY. MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA EARLY. OTRW...VFR. SWLY WINDS BECMG NWLY.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. LGT/VRBL WIND BECMG ELY.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL. ELY WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. ELY WIND.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1147 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A cold front is beginning to push into the northwest portion the
forecast area with little fanfare, and do not expect this to
change much for the rest of the night. The wave driving the front
into the area is quickly pushing off into the eastern Great
Lakes/Canada, taking most of the forcing with it. There is a weak
wave tracking northeast into the Midwest from the Plains and this
disturbance has some mid=level returns (likely only sprinkles or
virga) spreading into western Missouri and Iowa. This disturbance
is likely to impact only the northern portion of the forecast
area later tonight, so have limited slight chance PoPs to this
area during the overnight hours. Otherwise, going forecast looks
good and only slight tweaks have been made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western
Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the
eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The
boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and
eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture
for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way
of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry
forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at
least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA.
19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across
eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of
the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid-
level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the
front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight
low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings
remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on
Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as
mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very
warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather
system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of
pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of
the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with
timing and location of this front through the end of the week and
have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in
the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the
southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the
rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some
differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving
into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated
thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week
and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole
area.
The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just
below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into
the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to
just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week,
another weather system will move into the area with another chance
of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences
on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible.
Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps
should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. An upper-level
disturbance will pass near the area tonight, and an isolated
sprinkle can`t be ruled out. However, the risk of measurable
rainfall is too low to mention, and mid-level CIGS/virga are the
mostly likely impact of this disturbance. Generally light winds
are anticipated through the period with a decaying frontal boundary
in the vicinity.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER TO RE-INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN
EARLY THU MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN
RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
RESULTED IN SOME DECENT BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS
NOW GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY
PRECIP...HOWEVER MORE TIMELY HRRR AND RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST CURRENT
ELEVATED NE/KS PRECIP WILL OOZE INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE
SOLUTION...PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH BASED.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL PACKAGES...THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR
WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGE APPEARS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH.
TRADITIONALLY...INSTABILITY LESSENS ONCE THE LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED IN COOLER DRIER AIR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDER...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO MENTION.
OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME WITH A
PARTIALLY SPLIT FORCING REGIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE H850 JET AND BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. NONE THE
LESS A PERIOD OF HIGH POP WILL STILL BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY DESPITE
THE REALIZATION THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A DECENT COOL OFF FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S BY SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKS PATTERN.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE STORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS MAY PHASE
INTO ONE LARGER STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEEPEN
A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONCURRENTLY WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL GULF COAST SYSTEM EDGING NORTHEAST
WITH TIME FROM TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE H500 FIELDS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE EURO HAS ALLOWED THE ENERGY OF THE LEADING WAVE TO DIG FARTHER
SOUTH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH
WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE NET RESULT IS EITHER A MORE NORTHERLY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS OR A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE PLAINS IF
THE EURO MODEL VERIFIES. THOUGH WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY...IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A
STRONG FALL SYSTEM NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. DETAILS OF DAILY
WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE BETTER PARSED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY
WEDNESDAY. IF THE EURO WERE TO VERIFY...DAY TIME HIGHS BY THURSDAY
WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF COLD
RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. LEFT
OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN IS SLOW TO
MOVE EAST TO AFFECT ANY AIRPORT LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE
KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE
GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE
REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT
900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO
START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C
POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE
FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN
NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY.
THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY
POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL
AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING E THRU ONTARIO WL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI PRES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HI WL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
EARLY THIS MRNG. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
CMX AND SAW LATER THIS MRNG AS ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTER LLVL AIR
FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS. THESE LO CLDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVNG AT SAW WITH AN UPSLOPE NNE WIND ON THE SRN
FLANK OF SFC HI PRES MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC
BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-
249-250-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1252 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
BASED ON THE LATEST (1010 PM) RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ABOUT OVER AND THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS SHOW THE DRY AIR MOVING IN AND THIS
IS ALSO SEEN ON RAP MODEL HOURLY SOUNDING. AS A RESULT I HAVE
TAKEN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE A 20 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AS THE DRY AIR SURGES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON THE RAIN CHCS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRI
NIGHT. WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT FROST POTENTIAL FOR THU NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
NO REAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST. SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR W/SW ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LLJ CORE THAT WAS
SUPPORTING THEM BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
WE DO EXPECT THAT THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA
AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS ALL
INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPING BY
00Z...AND THEN PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WE FEEL THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL A GOOD BET WITH
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIN
CAPE PROFILES.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
SEE TEMPS COOL OFF A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
OCTOBER. FROST IS LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
CWFA THU NIGHT WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRI AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
IN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LIFTING NE
FROM THE DESERT SW. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRI EVENING
WHEN THE BEST INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A SUNNY BUT COOLER DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO KEEP US PREDOMINATELY DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES... BUT AS USUAL THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE SPECIFICS AND
THE TIMING. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF HOLDS OFF THE BULK
OF THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND INDICATES A VERY WET WEDNESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW/OCCLUSION APPROACHES. A DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE GULF AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE GFS INDICATES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY BUT AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
A FAVORABLE FLYING DAY AHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT I WILL ADMIT IT IS
MARGINAL AS MOST OF OUR COATS BUOYS HAVE ONLY 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
AND WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT MUSKEGON. WE MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP THIS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
NO BIG ISSUES ON THE RIVERS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RAINS ON TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING DID NOT PRODUCE ANY ISSUES ON THE RIVERS
WITH THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS EVENING WILL
BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THIS WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WET IN GENERAL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW WEEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS WILL LEAD TO
GRADUALLY HIGHER RIVER LEVELS...A CHANGE FROM RECENT TIMES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
350 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET TODAY BUT
BECOME ACTIVE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING SLIDES EWD QUICKLY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING...WHILE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...ONLY INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA IN THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL SURGE NWD ALONG A
E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT. STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
ELEVATED AREA OF F-GEN AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH AND
850-500MB CAPE VALUES AROUND 50-100 J/KG MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
WILL SEE AROUND A HALF TO INCH OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW VERY WEAK ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NW WI. THE PRESENCE OF OVERCAST SKIES AND THE COOL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE WEST WILL ALSO INDUCE A
STIFF E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND THE COOL MOIST
LAKE AIR MASS BLOWING IN FROM THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGE
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...DEPARTING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THOUGH. WE
CONTINUE HIGH POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH THEM SATURDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. WE HAVE ALL RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME WET SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP
RATES/TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
A WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/UPPER TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND FASTER WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT THEY AFFECT BOTH TIMING AND TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HANDLE THIS LOW DIFFERENTLY. AT
THIS TIME...WE HAVE LOW POPS MONDAY AND INCREASE THEM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECTING RADIATION FOG TO BE
A CONCERN AT KHYR AND KHIB TONIGHT. LAST FEW RAP RUNS HAVE HINTED
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON
THIS. KHYR BRIEFLY DROPPED TO MVFR VISBY AND HAVE SINCE GONE BACK
UP TO VFR. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THINK THAT IFR VISBY OR WORSE IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AT KHYR. KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...PER THE LATEST NAM/RAP/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS.
AFTER 13Z EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 37 47 44 / 0 10 90 80
INL 51 34 48 39 / 0 10 90 80
BRD 61 40 50 43 / 0 30 90 80
HYR 58 37 51 47 / 0 10 80 90
ASX 55 33 52 46 / 0 10 80 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER WITH FASTER
CLEARING TREND. HAVE ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS TO THE EAST AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS. LATE
THURSDAY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A SUNNY DAY FOR MOST EXCEPT IN FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA LONG THE BOUNDARY WATERS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY.
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
LOW. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT
FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM HIBBING NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...GENERALLY OVER MUCH OF SUPERIOR NATIONAL FOREST. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...AND WEST WINDS
SUBSIDING TO 5 MPH OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD AND LOW TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 60 NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS AND THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STORMS
SYSTEM...BUT ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH IN COMMON TO RAMP UP THE
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BEING LATE OCTOBER HAVE TAKEN A CAREFUL LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT OUT...BUT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO FALL
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS UNLIKELY. IT
GETS PRETTY CHILLY ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT EITHER. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP REVISITING THIS POTENTIAL AS WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO
THRESHOLDS. EITHER WAY THIS IS GOING TO BE A RATHER COLD RAIN AND
AM GLAD I WILL BE INDOORS THROUGH THIS EVENT.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE SOME COLDER AIR MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE WITH A FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT ON
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER...FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
AREA ABOUT MID WEEK SO HAVE PUT IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT TO LOWER POPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DUE TO
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECTING RADIATION FOG TO BE
A CONCERN AT KHYR AND KHIB TONIGHT. LAST FEW RAP RUNS HAVE HINTED
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON
THIS. KHYR BRIEFLY DROPPED TO MVFR VISBY AND HAVE SINCE GONE BACK
UP TO VFR. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THINK THAT IFR VISBY OR WORSE IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AT KHYR. KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...PER THE LATEST NAM/RAP/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS.
AFTER 13Z EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 47 43 49 / 0 90 90 30
INL 32 48 38 47 / 0 90 80 20
BRD 42 50 43 50 / 60 100 90 10
HYR 36 51 46 51 / 0 90 80 40
ASX 31 52 44 53 / 0 80 80 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
Weak cold front has made it down to near COU and just south of
PPQ early this morning. Southward moving cold front should only
make it into central MO and southern IL, near STL today as the
surface ridge over the northern Plains moves eastward into the
Great Lakes region, and then becomes nearly stationary this
afternoon. Will get high level cloudiness today ahead of the
upper level trough centered over the southern Rockies. The models
were also depicting significant low level moisture around 850 mb,
so am expecting quite a bit of diurnal cumulus clouds. Could not
rule out an isolated shower along the weak front this afternoon,
but it appears that the precipitation will remain west of the
forecast area today. High temperatures will be a little cooler
across northeast MO and west central IL compared to yesterday
north of the cold front.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2015
The stationary front will lift back northward as a warm front as
the upper level trough approaches our area tonight. Showers should
spread eastward into the western portion of the forecast area late
tonight, west of the Mississippi River as a southerly low level
jet brings increasing low level temperature and moisture advection
into this area. The upper level divergence will also be increasing
over our area ahead of the upper level trough. The precipitation
will shift eastward through the entire forecast area Friday and
Friday evening as the south-southwesterly low level jet translates
eastward through the region and as the upper level trough weakens
as it moves northeastward through the northern Plains. A cold
front will move southeastward through our forecast area late
Friday night and Saturday, and the threat for showers and a few
storms will continue until after the passage of the cold front.
The best chance of significant rainfall will occur across
southeast MO and southwest IL, from STL south and east on
Saturday. Most of the rain should shift southeast of our forecast
area by Saturday night as the northern stream upper level trough
flattens and a surface ridge moves into the area behind the cold
front. Cooler temperatures can be expected Saturday night, albeit
close to normal values for late October. A dry, tranquil period
of weather can be expected for the later portion of the weekend
into the next work week with weak upper level ridging over the
region. The chance of rain will return already by Monday night and
continue through the remainder of the extended forecast as a
deepening upper level trough and associated cold front move
through the region. The GFS model also is depicting a southern,
more tropical low moving up from the Gulf region and through
southeast MO and southern IL ahead of the northern stream upper
level trough and cold front.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015
Cold front is now being picked up on regional radar imagery, and
is about 1 hour slower than earlier expected. Still think we
should see some lower end VFR cigs (5-6kft) developing near and
north of the boundary during the predawn hours, with this
cloudiness then gradually eroding during the morning. Last couple
of runs of the HRRR still suggest a minimal shower threat in ne MO
during the predawn hours, so have maintained a mention of VCSH at
KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: Cold front should ooze into area shortly
before daybreak, become stationary, and then begin to lift back
north tomorrow afternoon/evening. Still expecting some lower VFR
clouds (5-6kft) to develop along the boundary during the predawn
hours, with this cloudiness then eroding around midday.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015
Weak "cold" front will slowly move south and eastward through
tonight before stalling somewhere near the I-70 corridor in
Missouri. Front will struggle to make too much southward progress
across the area due to amplified mid/upper level ridge axis across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. Threat of precipitation looks
meager...but did keep schc PoPs mainly across portions of northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois through the late evening hours in
close proximity to aforementioned sfc boundary and where some weak
low-level warm/moist advection will be occurring. Also added
mention of thunder with activity due to a MUCAPE axis of instability
progged by NWP guidance and what occurred last night. Temperatures
tonight will also be mild for mid/late October standards. Lows will
range from the mid 50s to low 60s with the warmest minimums forecast
along and just to the south of expected cold frontal boundary
position by 1200 UTC Thursday.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015
(Thursday - Saturday)
Cold front will move back northward during the day on Thursday as
leeside cyclogenesis commences. This frontal boundary then appears
to wash out fairly quickly by Thursday night. Dry weather appears
likely on Thursday and most of Thursday night ahead of a cold front
moving in from the west. The last of the well above normal
temperatures will be on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s across
the northern tier of the CWA to near 80 degrees along and south of I-
70. Should not be as warm tomorrow as today due to more anticipated
cloud cover and sfc winds from the southeast instead of
west/southwest.
Still appears what should be the most widespread precipitation event
going back many many weeks to occur predominantly on Friday/Friday
night. Boosted PoPs roughly ~10% across the CWA on Friday as
ingredient for high likelihoods of precipitation are depicted by NWP
guidance including UL diffluence...UL jet support...and low-level
warm/moist advection ahead of cold front. Highest PoPs/categoricals
remain across western sections of the area. Chances of precipitation
wane a bit further to the south and mainly east late Friday and
Friday night as precipitation outruns its support aloft and
therefore would expect a bit less coverage and QPF.
Cooler weather...though still near seasonal norms for late
October...appear likely on Saturday. Best chances of showers will be
across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois near
slowly progressing cold front...RER of UL jet streak...and weak
DCPVA ahead of southern Plains secondary vort maxima.
(Sunday - Wednesday)
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will end this weekend and take us into the
next work week. Result should be near normal temperatures with
chances of rain increasing in the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame as
the next trough digs out of the Rockies.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2015
Cold front is now being picked up on regional radar imagery, and
is about 1 hour slower than earlier expected. Still think we
should see some lower end VFR cigs (5-6kft) developing near and
north of the boundary during the predawn hours, with this
cloudiness then gradually eroding during the morning. Last couple
of runs of the HRRR still suggest a minimal shower threat in ne MO
during the predawn hours, so have maintained a mention of VCSH at
KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: Cold front should ooze into area shortly
before daybreak, become stationary, and then begin to lift back
north tomorrow afternoon/evening. Still expecting some lower VFR
clouds (5-6kft) to develop along the boundary during the predawn
hours, with this cloudiness then eroding around midday.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
...CORRECTION FOR TYPO...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES WITH
THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE.
ALL MODELS LIFT THE RAIN SHEILD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL LOOKS VERY GOOD AS MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND THE FORCING IS
STRONG. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH THE LEAD WAVE
OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB TODAY BUT K INDICES
ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED.
TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE RAIN WOULD REACH IMPERIAL AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...NORTH PLATTE 15Z AND VALENTINE 18Z. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE RAP AND ECM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
FCST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME THE SFC LOW WOULD BE OVER NCNTL
NEB AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. A
CHECK ON THE NAM FOG PRODUCT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
BUT THAT IS THE FASTER SOLN SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE FCST
FOR NOW. JUST 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN
AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
IS THE ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. THE 22.00Z
GFSAPPEARS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER. THE NAM IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ALSO SUGGESTING A DRY SLOT...BUT YET
MAINTAININGPRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEFORECAST WAS TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF AND LESSER DEGREE THE
NAM INMIND. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF
THEFORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND
POSSIBLYNORTHWESTERN /WRAP AROUND/ ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 21Z.
PROXIMITYSOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY REVEAL
LIMITEDINSTABILITY...BUT SUPPOSE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WOULD
BEPOSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A PREVAILING SHOWERS MENTION AS
IT/SREALLY ONLY THE 00Z NAM SUPPORTING THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THISWEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN THE
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE
50S BY MID-WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
THERE IS SOME VARIATION AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH ONE INDICATING THAT THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS 08Z
AND OTHERS BRINGING IT IN AS LATE AS 18Z. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
INDICATED LOW LEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ASSOCIATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE ONSET OF PRCIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WILL BE AS EARLY AS 08Z BUT...TAKING THE VARIATION INTO
CONSIDERATION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH BBW-
LBF-OGA BY 15Z AND ONL-TIF-MHN BY 18Z. THE ONSET FOR ANW-VTN-IEN
WILL PROBABLY BE 18-21Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY,
THEN BECOME MORE SEASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST AS THE LEADING SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT THE
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO BEGIN TO TURN INTO RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY,
ONCE THE SHOWERS CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS QUICKLY SO I ANTICIPATE THE FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT
HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR WILL CEASE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS WELL COVERED WITH ITS
RADAR ASSIMILATION SO I CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE HRRR
CONCERNING TIMING OF THE PROGRESSIVE MOVING FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 735PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER DRY, HENCE
SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AT AUTOMATED STATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE FURTHER AND BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE
AREA AFTER 06Z, A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING QPF TO LIGHT AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH. FELT LIKELY POPS WERE IN ORDER BASED
ON LATEST WRF/RAP TRENDS SO BUMPED UP A BIT TO MATCH MY THINKING.
FORECAST LOWS BASICALLY OCCURRING NOW, AND WITH INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN WARM
SECTOR, OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY TO
10-12C, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, EVEN IN THE FACE OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT, AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN
CLEAR EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS WELL AS
ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...SOME MIXING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S AS NW FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY`S HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPR LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN CONUS DURING THE
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...PER RELATIVELY CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z
GFS SOLNS. MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING THRU THE CAROLINAS INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALSO MODEST. AS A RESULT...PCPN AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED AOB 0.25". THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN. FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD HAVE RICHER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC....WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER QPF AMTS OF
0.50-1.00" WED INTO WED NGT. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
ALL RAIN. STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTS
>25MPH FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE ARRIVAL OF STEADIER
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NEAR THE MOS CONSENSUS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AVERAGES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE
TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 08-14Z BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AREAWIDE. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25KT LATER THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS
BEFORE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE AT SLK/MSS. CARRIED LLWS GROUP IN
SLK AND MSS TAFS THROUGH 13Z AND 14Z, RESPECTIVELY. WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND NW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN
SOME GUSTINESS TO 25KTS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY/VFR 06Z FRI THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
BRINGS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING
SHORELINES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
TURNING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY LESSENING TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY,
THEN BECOME MORE SEASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST AS THE LEADING SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT THE
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO BEGIN TO TURN INTO RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY,
ONCE THE SHOWERS CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS QUICKLY SO I ANTICIPATE THE FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT
HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR WILL CEASE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS WELL COVERED WITH ITS
RADAR ASSIMILATION SO I CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE HRRR
CONCERNING TIMING OF THE PROGRESSIVE MOVING FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 735PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER DRY, HENCE
SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AT AUTOMATED STATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE FURTHER AND BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE
AREA AFTER 06Z, A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING QPF TO LIGHT AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH. FELT LIKELY POPS WERE IN ORDER BASED
ON LATEST WRF/RAP TRENDS SO BUMPED UP A BIT TO MATCH MY THINKING.
FORECAST LOWS BASICALLY OCCURRING NOW, AND WITH INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN WARM
SECTOR, OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY TO
10-12C, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, EVEN IN THE FACE OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT, AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN
CLEAR EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS WELL AS
ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...SOME MIXING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S AS NW FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY`S HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD START TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NEW
ENGLAND IN THE MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES
IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERMAL PROFILE
SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE
TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 08-14Z BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AREAWIDE. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25KT LATER THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS
BEFORE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE AT SLK/MSS. CARRIED LLWS GROUP IN
SLK AND MSS TAFS THROUGH 13Z AND 14Z, RESPECTIVELY. WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST AND NW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN
SOME GUSTINESS TO 25KTS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY/VFR 06Z FRI THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
BRINGS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.
GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING
SHORELINES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
TURNING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY LESSENING TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY,
THEN BECOME MORE SEASONABLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST AS THE LEADING SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE
BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT THE
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO BEGIN TO TURN INTO RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY,
ONCE THE SHOWERS CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS QUICKLY SO I ANTICIPATE THE FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT
HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR WILL CEASE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS WELL COVERED WITH ITS
RADAR ASSIMILATION SO I CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE HRRR
CONCERNING TIMING OF THE PROGRESSIVE MOVING FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 735PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER DRY, HENCE
SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AT AUTOMATED STATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE FURTHER AND BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE
AREA AFTER 06Z, A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING QPF TO LIGHT AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH. FELT LIKELY POPS WERE IN ORDER BASED
ON LATEST WRF/RAP TRENDS SO BUMPED UP A BIT TO MATCH MY THINKING.
FORECAST LOWS BASICALLY OCCURRING NOW, AND WITH INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT, TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN WARM
SECTOR, OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY TO
10-12C, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, EVEN IN THE FACE OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT, AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN
CLEAR EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS WELL AS
ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...SOME MIXING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S AS NW FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY`S HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD START TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NEW
ENGLAND IN THE MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES
IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERMAL PROFILE
SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN. INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT,
TURNING GUSTY THURSDAY.
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH BUT PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO
SHALLOW DRY AIR MASS AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND. FIRST WAVE OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOW ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE IN STARTING 05-08Z PRODUCING 5 TO P6SM VISIBILITY RAIN.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED BY MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALOFT (IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE) WILL
LEAD TO SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. SOUTH SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING
SHORELINES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
TURNING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY LESSENING TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
MARINE...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
547 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY
THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS.
QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE
HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND
17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE
KMDT-KLNS AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A
LIGHT NW BREEZE.
PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME
SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS
BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT
AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE.
ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN
SPLASHED FRIDAY.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO
NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED
WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN
THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER N PA HAS MOVED TO THE EAST.
FEW SHOWERS TO THE NE OF IPT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LLWS IN AT BFD. STILL LOOKING THE SITUATION OVER. LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NW OF BFD. RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AIDING
THESE STORMS...EVEN WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH
OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND
INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM.
A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS
WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED
TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN
TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW
TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY
THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS.
QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE
HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND
17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE
KMDT-KLNS AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A
LIGHT NW BREEZE.
PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME
SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS
BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT
AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE.
ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN
SPLASHED FRIDAY.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO
NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED
WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN
THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
LLWS IN AT BFD. STILL LOOKING THE SITUATION OVER. LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NW OF BFD. RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AIDING
THESE STORMS...EVEN WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH
OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND
INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM.
A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS
WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED
TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN
TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW
TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM
220-260.
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
149 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL STAY DRY IN
MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY DAWN. HARD TO SEE
MORE THAN A T IN ANY AREA GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING
OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD
INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY.
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY
SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
/10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
LLWS IN AT BFD. STILL LOOKING THE SITUATION OVER. LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NW OF BFD. RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AIDING
THESE STORMS...EVEN WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE AIRSPACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT PASSES NORTH
OF THE STATE. ADDED LLWS TO KBFD TAF FOR LIGHT AND WINDS AND
INCREASING UPPER WINDS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM.
A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS PA ON THUR. THIS
WILL BRING THICKER CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLATED
TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS. HIEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN
TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A NOTEABLE WIND SHIFT FROM SW
TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.
HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE ITS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT
NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM
220-260.
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES
UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR FOR
KDHT AND KAMA. KGUY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LOWER CIGS AND THUS RAISE
ONLY TO MVFR. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER THAT UNTIL
AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTIONS IS LOW AS MODELS SEEM TO
NOT HAVE MUCH HANDLE ON THIS.
BEAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL THREE
SITES BUT EXPECT THESE TO STOP AROUND 09Z FOR KAMA AND KDHT AND 12Z
FOR KGUY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS THOUGH.
EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALL SITES AROUND 03Z TO 06Z
SOUTH TO NORTH AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. DURING
THESE STORMS IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
BEAT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UPDATE...
UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLE REGION. AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH MORE OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED POP AND QPF
AMOUNTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BIEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED
IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF
SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM
MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION
OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS
THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BIEDA
AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT
22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU
22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY
START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE
TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE
UPDATED FOR THEM.
BIEDA
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT
LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE
BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME
FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL
INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY
BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS
PRONE TO IT.
BIEDA
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO BRINGING FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING ARE
TO LOWER POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT BUT
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE THROUGH TORONTO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VAD WIND PROFILE
SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS... THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY
TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE S TO SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE M60S TO L70S FROM THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE AREA...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST...EXCEPT OVER
THE MTNS WHERE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT COULD GET INTO THE M70S. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS...EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE S/SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO
THE W/NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE
INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C
T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C
TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C.
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.
FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS
THE VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
MID AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. SOME ISOLATED LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY
RISE OVER THE EAST COAST FOR FAIR AND DRY WX TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A QUICK CONNECTION TO THE GULF IS POSSIBLE
BASED ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE W/SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND
LIKELY POPS WERE USED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE U30S
TO M40S BASED ON WET BULB COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY SOME MORE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE REACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE FA
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA CRESTING ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN
THE TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AGAIN IN THE
TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRINGS A
FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DELIVERS SHOWERS
SUNDAY...AND COLDER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA
AT LATE MORNING AND TEMPS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S. AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS STILL COVERED NORTHERN MA...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70 TO 75
DEGREE RANGE...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE
ISLANDS/HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
MAIN QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. AN AREA OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.5 C/KM WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS
MAY BE UNDER DOING THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. ALSO...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/NEAR
ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE REALLY NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS TOO WELL...BUT LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE SHOWING THIS
POSSIBILITY MORE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DURING THE
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SIMILAR TIMING AMONG THE MODELS FOR COLD FROPA LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING SKIES AS WELL AS
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME WIND THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS AT 925 MB BY
ABOUT 10C OVERNIGHT. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 30S TO
UPPER 40S. OUR MIN TEMPS WILL COME FROM THIS RANGE.
FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL SWING OVER NEW ENGLAND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. RAW MODEL DATA INDICATES MOIST AIR BELOW 850 MB
WHICH SUNSHINE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAY CONVERT INTO DIURNAL
CLOUDS. HOWEVER NONE OF THE MODEL GRID FIELDS INDICATE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SKY COVER. WE WILL GO WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON SKY COVER
VALUES THAN THE GRIDS PROVIDE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS TEMPTED TO GO.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRIER AND COOLER INTO SAT
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN
* RISK FOR MUCH COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
* RISK FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN SWING FROM ZONAL TO MORE MERIDIONAL BY
LATE WEEKEND...HANDLING OF THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION SCHEME BY
GUIDANCE WILL BE KEY IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WITH THE 22.00Z
UPDATE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LENDING TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SENSIBLE WX DETAILS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY IN THE TIMING AND DEPTH
OF THE SHORTWAVE IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH...BUT DO AT LEAST AGREE
SOMEWHAT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD OCCUR. IN FACT...LATEST ENSEMBLE
PROBS FROM BOTH THE GEFS/ECENS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PROBS OF
PRECIP VALUES EXCEEDING A HALF INCH FOR THU-FRI ALONG WITH PWATS 1-2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BOTH ALSO FEATURE A TIGHTLY WOUND
OCCLUSION...BUT HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING.
GIVEN THESE AGREEMENTS...FEEL THAT CONTINUING WITH THE GENERAL BLEND
OF GUIDANCE WILL WORK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE
TO ADD A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF FOR THE SUN FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ENSEMBLES FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS FAMILIES ARE MORE FAVORABLE
TO THIS SOLUTION THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER GFS.
DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...
HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR MINS. ONE ISSUE AS POINTED OUT IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THE RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHICH WOULD LIMIT COOLING THERE. IN FACT...SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ON THE ORDER OF 12-14C WITH WINDS GENERALLY NNELY AND REASONABLY
TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WILL BE FEATURING CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE LOW RISK OF A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THANKS TO THE DIFFERENCE IN SST AND SOME
INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE WELL MIXED BL. EXPECT WARMER MINS TOO
AS A RESULT.
BY SAT... CORE OF THE HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING E ALLOWING FOR SOME
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN MIXING TO
H92 WHERE TEMPS HOVER AROUND +2 TO +4C AND LATE DAY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MID TO UPPER 50S SEEM LIKE A REASONABLE MIDDLE GROUND. DRY
WX PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
VERY ROBUST LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUN.
INITIALLY PRECIP WILL START IN THE W EARLY SUN MORNING IN WARM
ADVECTIVE REGIME. THE DECISION TO LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF TIMING/QPF
WITH THIS UPDATE WILL HAVE TWO CONSEQUENCES...IT WILL FEATURE SLOWER
POPS...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING NEAR THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY
SUN EVENING. IT WILL ALSO MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTAL QPF VALUES.
PWATS WILL ACTUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER AS IT
INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EXITING
HIGH PRES...SO WE ARE FAR FROM TALKING DROUGHT-BUSTING NUMBERS HERE.
FOR NOW EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALUES AROUND 0.1 INCHES RATHER THAN THE
0.005 OR LESS THE GFS IS SHOWING. THE INCREASED LLJ ON THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED
BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MON THRU TUE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE FEATURES DRY HIGH PRES...THE
TRUE DIFFERENCE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. ECMWF HAS
HIGHER PROBABILITY THAT H85 WILL DIP BELOW 0C AND H92 CLOSER TO +2C
ON MON...LINGERING INTO TUE. SO EXPECT HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING MON NIGHT IT APPEARS...SO WILL LEAN
COOLER THAN THE BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THIS ALSO MEANS TUE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON THANKS TO A COOLER START.
WED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPENING
PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES E OF THE ROCKIES...THERE IS ALSO
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FOR A FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST
BRINGING PRECIP IN BY WED...SO WOULD LIKE TO KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE
A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST AGREEMENT FOR THU-FR
THAT SOME TYPE OF STRONG OCCLUSION COULD IMPACT THE REGION...WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED GUIDANCE YIELDS. THERE
ARE SEVERAL WRINKLES TO IRON OUT YET...BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL EVENT. MORE TO COME YET.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO
MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOLD OUTS NEAR THE NH
BORDER WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON. SW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TODAY/THIS EVE WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. VFR WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MAYBE
BRIEF MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER BY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO INTENSIFY A
BIT.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT...VFR WILL DOMINATE INTO FRI. SOME SW
WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN...EXPECT WEST
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
INLAND AND 20-25 KNOTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRI NIGHT THRU MON...
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OVER. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WITH OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR...SOME PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BOTH AHEAD OF AND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS THE ISSUE SAT
NIGHT...OCCASIONAL LOWER VSBYS IN SHOWERS THE ISSUE SUN.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD GO AWAY AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SUPPORT FOR GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS. THIS WIND WILL PUSH UP THE SEAS...WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON THE EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSTM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WIND
WILL DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR 20-25
KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 5 FEET WILL LINGER ON PARTS OF THE OUTER
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON MOST OF THE
WATERS.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS AIR MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE OCEAN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A STRAY SHOWER. THE
COLD AIR WILL ALSO BRING WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
OUTLOOK...FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRI NIGHT
SUCH THAT BY SAT AM...MOST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CAN LIKELY
BE DROPPED. HIGH PRES IN PLACE WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER INTO SAT NIGHT.
SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY SUN...THEN CROSS THE
WATERS LATER IN THE DAY ON SUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER THERE IS A
LOW RISK FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS WHILE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. EXPECT GUSTS TO
APPROACH 25 KT ALLOWING SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FT ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
825 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO BRINGING FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 825 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY
BEEN LIGHT BUT REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE
THROUGH TORONTO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ENTIRE AREA BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS...
THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY TODAY WITH
TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE S TO SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE M60S TO L70S FROM THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE AREA...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST...EXCEPT OVER
THE MTNS WHERE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT COULD GET INTO THE M70S. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS...EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO L60S. THE S/SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO
THE W/NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30
TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE
INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C
T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C
TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C.
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.
FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS THE
VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID
AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS WHERE
SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. SOME ISOLATED LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
OVER THE EAST COAST FOR FAIR AND DRY WX TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A QUICK CONNECTION TO THE GULF IS POSSIBLE
BASED ON THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE W/SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND
LIKELY POPS WERE USED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE U30S
TO M40S BASED ON WET BULB COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY SOME MORE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE REACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA WITH
THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND COLD FRONT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE THE FA SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA CRESTING ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL
IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AGAIN IN THE
TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
ISSUED BY NWS LINCOLN IL
919 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST
MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH
PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND
OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO
LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING
LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE
LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN
SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER
MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE
MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR
THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO
UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY
SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER
30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS
LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE
MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM
VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NONE.
AUTEN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING
BELOW 10 KT TODAY BUT INCREASING AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AUTEN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH.
AUTEN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA EARLY. IMPROVING TO VFR. W WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. NE WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
TUESDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. W WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
636 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...
311 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST
MADE IT THROUGH THE CWA AND LIES FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH
PONTIAC IL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD. A WEAK VORT STREAMER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER NORTHERN IL...AND THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A NARROW BAND
OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A VALPO TO
LASALLE LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT WILL FALL SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. THE WAVE AND SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING
LEADING TO A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE
LAKE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. RAIN
SPREADS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER
MINNESOTA. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE 0.25-0.35
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE
MORE FALLING ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO NOT FEATURE MUCH CAPE WITH THE 06Z NAM HAVING THE MOST CAPE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO GIBSON CITY LINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TIME OF DAY IS NOT IDEAL FOR
THUNDER AND THE NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO MOIST WHICH LEADS TO
UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPE VALUES. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY
SATURDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM WANTS TO HOLD ON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT IT HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
311 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS THIN AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR 50S DOWNTOWN AND PERHAPS UPPER
30S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THIS
LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS REACHING THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH UP THE
MISSISSIPPI. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A LOW PASSING OVER
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS FEATURE PRECIP...ALBEIT IT FROM
VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NONE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS STAYING
BELOW 10 KT TODAY BUT INCREASING AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AUTEN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH.
AUTEN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR LIKELY. IFR PSBL. SW WIND.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA EARLY. IMPROVING TO VFR. W WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. NE WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
TUESDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. W WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
30 KT AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO CANADA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES WITH
THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE.
ALL MODELS LIFT THE RAIN SHEILD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL LOOKS VERY GOOD AS MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND THE FORCING IS
STRONG. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH THE LEAD WAVE
OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB TODAY BUT K INDICES
ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED.
TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE RAIN WOULD REACH IMPERIAL AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...NORTH PLATTE 15Z AND VALENTINE 18Z. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE RAP AND ECM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
FCST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME THE SFC LOW WOULD BE OVER NCNTL
NEB AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR. A
CHECK ON THE NAM FOG PRODUCT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
BUT THAT IS THE FASTER SOLN SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE FCST
FOR NOW. JUST 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN
AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
IS THE ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. THE 22.00Z
GFSAPPEARS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER. THE NAM IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ALSO SUGGESTING A DRY SLOT...BUT YET
MAINTAININGPRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEFORECAST WAS TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF AND LESSER DEGREE THE
NAM INMIND. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF
THEFORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND
POSSIBLYNORTHWESTERN /WRAP AROUND/ ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 21Z.
PROXIMITYSOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY REVEAL
LIMITEDINSTABILITY...BUT SUPPOSE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WOULD
BEPOSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A PREVAILING SHOWERS MENTION AS
IT/SREALLY ONLY THE 00Z NAM SUPPORTING THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THISWEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN THE
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE
50S BY MID-WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
UNDERWAY ACROSS WRN KS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH
WRN/NCNTL NEB TODAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR/LOCAL
IFR BEGINNING THIS EVENING SOUTH AND NORTH TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1204 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. GOCZY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED
BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY
THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS.
QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE
HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND
17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE
KMDT-KLNS AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A
LIGHT NW BREEZE.
PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME
SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS
BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT
AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE.
ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN
SPLASHED FRIDAY.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO
NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED
WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN
THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT STILL TO THE NW...BUT HARD TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FOR A BRIEF TIME...AS FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK OUT LLWS...EXPECT WINDS AT THE SFC TO
PICK UP SHORTLY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. FAIR WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT...AND 80 KT UPPER JETLET WILL TARGET MAINLY
THE NRN TIER OF PENN /AND NEW YORK STATE/ WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS/UVVEL FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE UNFAVORABLE...RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PENN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS.
QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS MORNING...WHILE IT/LL BE
HARD TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY GIVEN AMBIENT DRYNESS. TEMPS TODAY WILL START OUT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH A DIP IN TEMPS OF JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEG F IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
LATEST...07Z HRRR INDICATES THE CFROPA THROUGH KBFD AROUND
17Z...KIPT TO KUNV AND KAOO 19-20Z...AND AROUND 22-23Z IN THE
KMDT-KLNS AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A
LIGHT NW BREEZE.
PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...YIELDING CHILLY MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE METRO AREAS. SOME
SHALLOW/WARM STRATO CU COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW/NCENT MTNS
BELOW THE MDTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED JUST 1-2 KFT
AGL WITH A 5-10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE.
ELSWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUN
SPLASHED FRIDAY.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM AROUND 50F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO
NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED
WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN
THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACCAS JUST BEFORE SUNSET LAST EVENING WAS A HINT THAT SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT.
ANYWAY...SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
ACROSS THE WEST ARE GONE NOW. BFD HAD THUNDER FOR SHORT TIME
EARLIER.
STORMS OCCURRED WITH STRONG DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH...EVEN
WITH LOW DEWPOINTS.
FRONT STILL TO THE NW...BUT HARD TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FOR A BRIEF TIME...AS FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK OUT LLWS...EXPECT WINDS AT THE SFC TO
PICK UP SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR...GIVEN THE ISOALATED
STORM THAT JUST FORMED.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING...AND SLIDING OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAYNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST TO
START THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING ARE
TO LOWER POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT BUT
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BUFFALO BUT HAS GONE THROUGH TORONTO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LATEST HRRR SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VAD WIND PROFILE
SUGGEST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS... THE FCST AREA SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY
TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WITH A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DOES NOT LOOK GREAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MID TO LATE PM
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK. THE
INSTABILITY JUST IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM +4C
T0 +9C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z/FRI...TO -3C
TO +3C. FURTHER NORTH H850 TEMPS TUMBLE ALL THE WAY TO -3C TO -7C.
IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO U30S IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CTY. THE SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.
FRIDAY...A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SE ONTARIO...AND WRN QUEBEC. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THU WITH U40S TO L50S MAINLY ACROSS
THE VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW MID 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
MID AND U40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE SOME U30S TO L40S ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FCST AREA MOVES INTO FAST MVNG 500 HPA FLOW AS A SERIES OF RIDGES
AND TROFS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. FRI NIGHT RIDGING AT ALL
LEVELS SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE
REGION...CLEAR SKIES...13 PLUS HOURS OF DARKNESS AND IDEAL
RADITIONAL COOLING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH
SOME ISOLD TEENS IN THE N MTN VLYS OF HAM/HERK CO.
THE 500HPA RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A TROF MOVES INTO THE GRT LKS
SAT NT AND ACROSS THE RGN SUN. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THE
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
REBOUND IN TEMPS UNDER COBALT BLUE SUNNY SKIES. BY AFTN TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 50S REGION WIDE...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCRG FM THE WEST AS
THE CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS.
THE CDFNT AND ITS MAIN 500 HPA SHORT WV PASS THROUGH THE RGN SAT
NT...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING N OF FCA. CLOUDS
AND SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
PERIPHERY OF FCA...BUT IN THE FAST 500 HPA WNW FLOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEPART QUICKLY AS THE NXT SFC HIGH BUILDS FM W GRT LKS SUN
AFTN TO SITING OVER THE NE USA MON MORNING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 40S SAT NT... AND RECOVER TO THE 50S
SUN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE MEAN MDL RH DRIES OUT
NICELY SUN...THE AMNT OF CLEARING IS QUESTIONABLE AS INVERSION
REMAINS ARND 5KFT...AND MOST STATISTICAL GUID RETAINS BKN/OVC
CLOUDS. HWVR 7 HPA SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS WILL CERTAINLY
PROMOTE MIXING IN THE WAKE OF CDFNT...AND EXPECT DCRG CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN AND CLEARING SUN NT..SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER E GRT LKS
KEEPING SOME N-NE GRADIENT OVER FCA...AND LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE
COMMON SUN NT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA CRESTING
ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERALL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL IN BETWEEN THE TAF SITES...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN
THE TAFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL AT KPSF. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BTWN 21Z AND 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING BTWN 6-10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 35 TO 50 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY INITIALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AGAIN IN THE
TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND UPSTATE NY. THIS FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD REACH THE
POCONOS AROUND SUNSET AND I-95 BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE AND FORCING IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT BUT THERE WAS ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE FOR A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PA HIGHLANDS. IN THIS TYPE
OF SETUP, THESE WEAKLY FORCED SHOWERS TEND TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE
CROSS MOUNTAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR AND NCEP
WRF ARW AND NMM ALL SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND 00Z. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT FROM SWLY TO WLY AND EVENTUALLY NLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. CAA ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THOUGH MIXING DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT DEEP. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA. DESPITE THE CAA, MIN TEMP
FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. THE
CAA WILL PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS NLY WINDS
ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE MOST
FREQUENT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN HOW GUIDANCE OFTEN UNDERDOES THE EXTENT OF THE CAA STRATOCU
THAT DEVELOPS, SIDED WITH THE NAM, WHICH HINTS AT SOME CLOUDS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE. GENERALLY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND
NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HEATING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 10-15F LOWER THAN THEY ARE TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT, TOWARD EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING, PROVIDING
FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TIMING OF THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THE BEST TIME LOOKS TO BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR HEAVILY FAVORED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A CAVEAT THOUGH
AS STRATOCU BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE CIGS NEAR 3 KFT BETWEEN
06-12Z. THIS LIKELIHOOD OF IT BEING MORE THAN SCT IS LOW AND THUS
MVFR WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE 18Z TAF.
WHILE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES, THE COVERAGE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
ANY IMPACTS ON CIGS AND VSBYS WOULD BE MINIMAL ANYWAY.
SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS BECOME WLY BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING TO N-
NWLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 15 KT AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN EAST
MONDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SWLY WINDS 15-20 KT THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH FROPA AND THEN N-NWLY LATE.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS CAA ALOFT OCCURS ABOVE THE WARMER OCEAN
WATERS. BASED ON WHAT`S AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER, ISSUED A SCA FOR ANZ450-451 FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM FRIDAY.
IT IS A MARGINAL SETUP FOR 25 KT GUSTS BUT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE A HEADLINE. THE GRADIENT IS EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEAKER FARTHER
SOUTH, SO GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE COMMON.
SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FT THRU THIS
EVENING TO 3-4 FT BY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST IN THE
LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH PLUME OF RICH
MOISTURE ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. RADAR SHOWS MAJORITY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
TRANSITIONED OUT OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO FEED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. DRY
SLOT ON WV IMAGERY COINCIDE WITH AREA OS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTH
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. FAR NORTHWEST AND EAST
HAVE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN WITHING AREAS OF BETTER LARGE SCALE
FORCING...AND HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AS
DEFORMATION ZONE PASSES TO THE NW. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL DRY AIR. I KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER END OF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANY
PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT (DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN SHOWERS).
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTS NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. I COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNRISE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW FRIDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB...POSSIBLY 750MB.
AT THIS LEVEL 30-40KT JET WOULD SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON SATURDAY
LOTS OF SUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD SUNSET. THESE HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER
30S (WEST TO EAST) WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY AS A 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/FRONT. 850-500MB LAYER RATHER
DRY AND POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO FALL IT WOULD BE
AROUND/BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT
SKY COVER FORECAST WITH THE GFS THE DRIER MODEL...ECMWF THE
WETTEST/MORE MOIST. EXTENDED PROCEDURE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SFC
HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND FOCUS
WILL BE ON LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL AIM FOR LOW TO MID 30S WITH A
CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO TRANSITION NORTH FROM
BOTH TERMINALS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO LED TO FOG/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT ON BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON
THIS SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY. LOWEST VIS SHOULD BE IN THE FIRST
HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO LINGER AND
MODELS INDICATE LOW CIGS/VIS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE
IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOST NEGATIVE GUIDANCE
SHOWING LIFR (1/4SM VIS) BY 08-09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER BACK OVER
BOTH TERMINALS (KGLD FIRST). I LOWERED CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FAVORED LESS
NEGATIVE END OF GUIDANCE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST
GUSTS AROUND 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AT KGLD...LATER AT
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH PLUME OF RICH
MOISTURE ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. RADAR SHOWS MAJORITY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
TRANSITIONED OUT OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS CONTINUED TO FEED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. DRY
SLOT ON WV IMAGERY COINCIDE WITH AREA OS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTH
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. FAR NORTHWEST AND EAST
HAVE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN WITHING AREAS OF BETTER LARGE SCALE
FORCING...AND HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AS
DEFORMATION ZONE PASSES TO THE NW. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL DRY AIR. I KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LINGER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER END OF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANY
PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT (DRIZZLE MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN SHOWERS).
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTS NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. I COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNRISE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW FRIDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB...POSSIBLY 750MB.
AT THIS LEVEL 30-40KT JET WOULD SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...BUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS WITH IT.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF CONCERN
REMAINS THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE PRESENT TIME...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THAT BEING SAID...A FROST AND
POSSIBLE FREEZE APPEARS MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT OF BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. SOUTHERN WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN WARMER WEATHER. AS A RESULT...MADE
A CHANGE TO THE INITIALIZATION TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
IN LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY EXCEEDED GUIDANCE
LATELY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY BE OBSERVED MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
ON TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WITHIN THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT. GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO FRONTAL TIMING. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS AMPLE BUST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH. A FASTER FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY
SOAR AHEAD OF A SLOWER MOVING FRONT.
HERE IS THE BAD NEWS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE AS WITH LAST
NIGHT`S FORECAST GUIDANCE. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO WAVES OF
ENERGY SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE FIRST...STRONGER PIECE OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PRIMARILY AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TIMING OF DAY AND
COLD FRONT MOVEMENT WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONG FORCING WOULD MEAN SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE BEST ENERGY REMAINS ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THE TWO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
FINALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROST/FREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS REMAINS. COLD AIR ADVECTION...WEAKENING WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLEARING SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR A PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES. FEEL TWO METER AND MOS GUIDANCE REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH. ESSENTIALLY
ISSUED WITH THE SAME FORECAST PRODUCED YESTERDAY BUT HAD TO MAKE AN
ADJUSTMENT DOWN FROM WHAT WAS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2015
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO TRANSITION NORTH FROM
BOTH TERMINALS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO LED TO FOG/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT ON BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON
THIS SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY. LOWEST VIS SHOULD BE IN THE FIRST
HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO LINGER AND
MODELS INDICATE LOW CIGS/VIS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE
IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOST NEGATIVE GUIDANCE
SHOWING LIFR (1/4SM VIS) BY 08-09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER BACK OVER
BOTH TERMINALS (KGLD FIRST). I LOWERED CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FAVORED LESS
NEGATIVE END OF GUIDANCE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST
GUSTS AROUND 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AT KGLD...LATER AT
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL/RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES
WITH THE H700MB TRACKING THRU WYOMING PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPE ZONE.
ALL MODELS LIFT THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH
OF RAINFALL LOOKS VERY GOOD AS MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND THE
FORCING IS STRONG. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WITH
THE LEAD WAVE OR WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THROUGH THE CNTL NEB
TODAY BUT K INDICES ARE 30 TO 35C IN ALL MODELS WHICH SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED.
TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE RAIN WOULD REACH IMPERIAL AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING...NORTH PLATTE 15Z AND VALENTINE 18Z. THIS IS CLOSE
TO THE SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE RAP AND ECM. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE FCST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME THE SFC LOW
WOULD BE OVER NCNTL NEB AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE STILL IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A CHECK ON THE NAM FOG PRODUCT SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG BUT THAT IS THE FASTER SOLN SO WILL
LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. JUST 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR
HIGHS TODAY WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
IS THE ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH. THE 22.00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER. THE NAM IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ALSO SUGGESTING A DRY SLOT...BUT YET
MAINTAINING PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF AND LESSER DEGREE
THE NAM IN MIND. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND POSSIBLY NORTHWESTERN /WRAP AROUND/ ZONES SHORTLY AFTER
21Z. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY
REVEAL LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT SUPPOSE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A PREVAILING SHOWERS
MENTION AS IT/S REALLY ONLY THE 00Z NAM SUPPORTING THE WEAK
INSTABILITY. TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS
WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE
50S BY MID-WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONAL LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
PRECIP SHIELD LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALREADY IMPACTING
THE KLBF TERMINAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ARRIVAL AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL BY 20Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS A DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONCERN ACROSS SW NEB THAT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
AND RETURNS THE AREA TO IFR CONDITIONS. LESS CONFIDENCE THE
IMPACT FURTHER NORTH WHERE MORE DRY AIR EXISTS...THUS INCREASED
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
414 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COLD
FRONT BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW. FAIR
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH HIGHS TODAY
WERE SLIGHTLY MUTED DUE TO THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE FADED BY TIME THE
FRONT REACHES US...THOUGH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS FORMED
OVERTHE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A MARGINAL 850MB LLJET HAS INCREASED
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO CAUSE A WEAK LINE TO FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST PA. THE 16Z HRRR IS SHOWING
THESE WEAK SHOWERS AND CONTINUES THE TREND OF LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES THE DRYING TREND AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN MOST PLACES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN...BEFORE DROPPING OFF AS THE COLDER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A
LIGHT NW BREEZE.
AFTER FROPA SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO
NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL NIGHT FRI NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST AS NORTHERLY FLOW
EARLIER IN THE DAY BRINGS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEFORE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES TO THE SE. RETURN FLOW BEGINS OVER W PA AND SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW...BUT OVERALL LOWS FRI
NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SAT WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND 10C...BUT WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST IN A DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE SLOWER MOVING WARM FRONT /AS
SHOWN IN THE GEFS AND EC/...CROSSING THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS PARENT LOW SLIDES BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THESE FRONTS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TO LIKELY COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED
AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. QPF TOTALS COULD BE IN
NEIGHBORHOOD OF HALF AN INCH IN THE NW MTNS TAPERING TO A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH TUE...BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
BY WED AND ESP HEADING INTO THU...A SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST...BRINGING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
DEEPENING THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL WED AND ESP THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS HAVE
THICKENED AND LOWERED...WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH BFD...AND EXPECT
FOR THIS TO BE POSSIBLE AT JST AS WELL. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK...AND SHOULDN/T REDUCED
VSBYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIMIT
ANY FORMATION OF REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG/MIST OVERNIGHT. IT
DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD AND IPT OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z. ANY
REDUCING CIGS HOWEVER SHOULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR. FAIR WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...AND EVERYWHERE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COLD
FRONT BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW. FAIR
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
A 2-3 DAY STRETCH OF FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH HIGHS TODAY
WERE SLIGHTLY MUTED DUE TO THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE FADED BY TIME THE
FRONT REACHES US...THOUGH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS FORMED
OVERTHE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A MARGINAL 850MB LLJET HAS INCREASED
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO CAUSE A WEAK LINE TO FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST PA. THE 16Z HRRR IS SHOWING
THESE WEAK SHOWERS AND CONTINUES THE TREND OF LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES THE DRYING TREND AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
QPF-WISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN MOST PLACES WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN...BEFORE DROPPING OFF AS THE COLDER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY A
LIGHT NW BREEZE.
AFTER FROPA SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
SUN SPLASHED FRIDAY.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE JUST 1 OR 2 DEG F BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO
NEAR 60F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TREND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEG COMPARED
WITH THE MIN/MAXES EARLY THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
SKIES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY SUNNY-PTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN IN
THE DEEPENING S-SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS HAVE
THICKENED AND LOWERED...WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH BFD...AND EXPECT
FOR THIS TO BE POSSIBLE AT JST AS WELL. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK...AND SHOULDN/T REDUCED
VSBYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIMIT
ANY FORMATION OF REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG/MIST OVERNIGHT. IT
DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BFD AND IPT OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z. ANY
REDUCING CIGS HOWEVER SHOULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR. FAIR WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...AND EVERYWHERE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/CERU
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING..
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL DAY FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF DFW WITH SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS ALREADY TO BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE.
SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW AREAS...BUT LUCKILY
OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOW MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL TO
ABSORB INTO THE SOIL WITH JUST MAINLY SOME STREET FLOODING
REPORTED. THE PERSISTENT RAIN AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MODEST COLD
POOL THAT HAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO A GAINESVILLE...TO DECATUR...
TO EASTLAND LINE.
THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY REMAINS ANALOGOUS AT BEST...AS EVEN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS JOIN THE STANDARD MODELS IN NOT RESOLVING THE
CURRENT BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...OR THE COLD POOL VERY
WELL AT ALL. PICKING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS NOT IN THE CARDS TODAY
AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HRRR AND ECMWF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM AND
EUROPEAN MODELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR IS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH TO BE OUTRUN BY
IT/S COLD POOL AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT REFORMING OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE WEST OF A
SHERMAN...DALLAS...COMANCHE LINE WITH MORE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS
EASING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE LARGE SCALE WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE RAINFALL THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT COMBINING WITH ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WHERE
THAT WILL BE IS ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOMEWHERE. OTHER AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
RACING NORTH WITH THE MEAN SSW FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
VERY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF RAINFALL. AS SUCH...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
EXPAND THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE
MORE PRIMED FROM CURRENT RAINFALL AND REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
THE LAST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG
BEND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING THIS FEATURE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LLJ AND 850MB WAA ENCOUNTER
INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 100-110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY DROP A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MY BIG CONCERN WITH THE SECOND EVENT
IS THAT MANY AREAS MAY BE SATURATED OR EXPERIENCING
ONGOING...LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WINDOW IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN
REGARDING BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BRAZOS...TRINITY AND SULPHUR RIVER BASINS
DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING AS WE FINISH THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE TRACK
MORE FLAT AND OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS EITHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OR TAPERING OFF. WITH
MY CONFIDENCE VERY LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL COME MORE IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS. TIMING SUCH
ROUNDS IS ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...THUS WE STRESS TO EVERYONE TO BE
PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF THEY
ARE SUCCUMBED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OR
EXTREME URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. WE WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE
TIMING THE ROUNDS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS BEST WE CAN...BUT THE
BEST BET IS TO BE AWARE AT ALL TIMES...ESPECIALLY DRIVING AND
OUTDOORS...TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT WILL LIKELY
BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR MORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...RAIN...RAIN-PRODUCED COLD
POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
FINALLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO MID WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND HALLOWEEN...BUT FOR
NOW CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW WITH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS TO
ADVERTISE FUTURE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
05/
&&
05
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1259 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MVFR AND IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE SCATTERED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AROUND 20-21Z BUT SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME AND HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE VCTS FROM THE
TAF BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST
OF THE DFW AIRPORTS WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN.
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY STREAM NORTH AND WILL
KEEP THE VCSH MENTION OVERNIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE
OTHER MODELS KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. UPCOMING TAF
ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IF THE MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THE DAY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
RAIN BAND WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT SPEEDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-22 KTS.
THE WINDS MAY FALL BELOW 12 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
JLDUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 78 67 71 59 / 100 100 100 90 60
WACO, TX 71 80 67 74 60 / 70 90 100 100 70
PARIS, TX 68 75 66 72 59 / 90 100 80 100 70
DENTON, TX 67 77 66 71 58 / 100 80 90 90 50
MCKINNEY, TX 68 76 66 72 59 / 100 90 90 100 60
DALLAS, TX 68 78 67 72 59 / 100 100 100 100 60
TERRELL, TX 70 78 67 74 61 / 80 90 100 100 70
CORSICANA, TX 70 80 68 75 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
TEMPLE, TX 71 80 67 74 61 / 60 80 80 100 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 79 64 71 58 / 100 80 80 80 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
&&
$$
82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL OFF TO THE WEST OF US...WE STILL COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST SO THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY...THE TRAILING TROUGH
AXIS BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ON THE CAPROCK BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUMES ARE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BIGGEST HEADACHE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WILL BE THE ISSUE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MODELS FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE NEVER FULLY BURNED OFF ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...THERE
ARE SOME POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT IN PLACE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WEAK WINDS...EXPECT TO SEE PRIME
CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SUN SETS. THE
NAM...HRRR...AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO DRY
OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY FAST. FEEL THAT THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SETUP WE SEE FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
MENTION OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND GO 100 PERCENT COVERAGE ON CLOUDS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL WE SEE EXACTLY HOW THINGS UNFOLD...ANY CONVECTION
COULD HELP RAISE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ONE OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DUE TO EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS/FOG WAS TO BUMP UP
MORNING LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BY 3-5 DEGREES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DRY AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS SO FAR AND CLOUD
COVER HOLDING LONGWAVE RADIATION IN SHOULD HELP TO HOLD MINS UP SOME.
FINALLY BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND CLEARING
SKIES AS THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WE KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE AREA AND
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE WIND WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY HELPING TO MIX IN SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVE US SLIGHTLY CLEARER CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WERE COOLED ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES FROM
SUPERBLEND NUMBERS AS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CLOUDY START
TO THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH.
JORDAN
.LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT HAS PROVIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY...IS STILL PROGGED
TO OPEN UP WHILE EJECTING ENE ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WANING
FURTHER STILL BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN DRYING COMMENCING
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND /PWATS OF 0.80-1.00 INCH/. WITH
A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT STILL PROJECTED TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING AND A TRAILING UA TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THIS COULD RESULT
IN LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
/COINCIDING WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS/. THEREAFTER...LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN POSSIBLY IN THE
WORKS...AS A SERIES OF UA DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...ONE ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT AND BRIEF UA RIDGING OCCURRING IN BETWEEN
/WEDNESDAY/. KEEPING IN MIND THAT MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT
BEEN VERY GOOD...BUT IF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES INDEED COME
INTO FRUITION...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE FEASIBLE. THE SUPER-
BLENDED SOLUTION HOLDING ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM.
DUE TO A COUPLE OF FROPAS AND RELATIVELY STEADY 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELDS...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD /60S AND 70S/...FOLLOWED BY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
/40S AND 50S/.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/29